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    Vulnerability and Risk

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    eftychidis
    The document discusses the relationship between climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk management (DRM). It defines key concepts like hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk. It explains that risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and that adaptive capacity influences vulnerability. The document notes that while understanding climate hazards is important, it is also necessary to assess how communities may be affected and their vulnerability. Finally, it explores the convergence between CCA and DRM and argues that they are closely linked frameworks that should be integrated through activities like vulnerability assessments and priority setting.

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    Vulnerability and Risk

    Uploaded by

    eftychidis
    112 views27 pages
    The document discusses the relationship between climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk management (DRM). It defines key concepts like hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk. It explains that risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and that adaptive capacity influences vulnerability. The document notes that while understanding climate hazards is important, it is also necessary to assess how communities may be affected and their vulnerability. Finally, it explores the convergence between CCA and DRM and argues that they are closely linked frameworks that should be integrated through activities like vulnerability assessments and priority setting.

    Original Description:

    V&R CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    Original Title

    VULNERABILITY AND RISK

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    The document discusses the relationship between climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk management (DRM). It defines key concepts like hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk. It explains that risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and that adaptive capacity influences vulnerability. The document notes that while understanding climate hazards is important, it is also necessary to assess how communities may be affected and their vulnerability. Finally, it explores the convergence between CCA and DRM and argues that they are closely linked frameworks that should be integrated through activities like vulnerability assessments and priority setting.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    112 views27 pages

    Vulnerability and Risk

    Uploaded by

    eftychidis
    The document discusses the relationship between climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk management (DRM). It defines key concepts like hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk. It explains that risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and that adaptive capacity influences vulnerability. The document notes that while understanding climate hazards is important, it is also necessary to assess how communities may be affected and their vulnerability. Finally, it explores the convergence between CCA and DRM and argues that they are closely linked frameworks that should be integrated through activities like vulnerability assessments and priority setting.

    Copyright:

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    of 27

    The CCA-DRM Nexus

    Kendra Gotangco Rosa Perez Manila Observatory

    Now that we have climate projections so what?


    Understanding climate variability and climate change

    is just one step towards adaptation.


    We also need to know HOW we may be affected by

    these changes in concrete terms, and WHY we are affected in these ways.
    Only then can we formulate effective action plans.

    Outline
    Define the concepts of hazard, vulnerability and risk

    and how they interact. Reconcile risk and vulnerability frameworks of the climate change and disaster risk communities. Clarify the CCA-DRM nexus. Introduce the role of vulnerability assessment in adaptation.

    Why Knowing the Hazard is Not Enough

    Hazard
    Hazard refer specifically to physical manifestations of

    climatic variability or change, such as droughts, floods, storms, episodes of heavy rainfall, long-term changes in the mean values of climatic variables, potential future shifts in climatic regimes and so on.
    Climate hazards may be defined in terms of absolute values

    or departures from the mean of variables such as rainfall, temperature, wind speed, or water level, perhaps combined with factors such as speed of onset, duration and spatial extent.
    Hazards are also referred to as climate events.

    Broad Categories of Hazards


    1.

    Discrete recurrent hazards, as in the case of transient phenomena such as storms, droughts and extreme rainfall events

    2.

    Continuous hazards, for example increases in mean temperatures or decreases in mean rainfall occurring over many years or decades
    Discrete singular hazards, for example shifts in climatic regimes associated with changes in ocean circulation; the palaeoclimatic record provides many examples of abrupt climate change events associated with the onset of new climatic conditions that prevailed for centuries or millennia

    3.

    Lets imagine

    Risk Hazard Exposure Vulnerability

    likelihood of harm, loss, disaster physical impact of disturbance elements affected by hazard
    lack of capacity of community to prepare, absorb, recover from hazard

    Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity

    Risk = H x E x V

    R E V

    R E V

    R E V

    R E V

    R E V

    R E V

    Two Worlds, Two Languages?

    V = f( E, S, AC)
    Exposure: nature and degree to which a system is exposed to

    significant climatic variations


    Sensitivity: degree to which a system is affected, either adversely

    or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise).
    Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate

    change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. IPCC AR4, TAR WG2

    Vulnerability
    Two categories:

    - Social vulnerability - a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard event; Determined by factors such as poverty and inequality, marginalisation, food entitlements, access to insurance, and housing quality
    - Biophysical vulnerability - in terms of the amount of (potential) damage caused to a system by a particular climate-related event or hazard ; This combined vulnerability is a function of hazard, exposure and sensitivity

    IPCC Vulnerability (Biophysical)


    Exposure

    UN Risk
    Hazard Exposure

    Sensitivity

    Vulnerability

    (Inherent Vulnerability)
    Adaptive Capacity Adaptive Capacity

    climate change mitigation climate change adaptation

    disaster mitigation

    NOTE: Not a strict correspondence but a rough mapping to facilitate linking of understanding of frameworks.

    Figure SPM.1 Illustration of the core concepts of the SREX (IPCC SREX SPM)

    Making Connections and Seeking Synergies

    IPCC TAR WG1 2.7.1

    DRM that helps build resilience contributes to CCA in the long run; however, climate change may push us into new extremes!
    Figure SPM.3, IPCC SREX SPM

    DRM and CCA: Points of Convergence


    Climate Change Adaptation: Reduce risk to: Disaster Risk Management Reduce risk to:

    Gradual changes in climatic parameters

    Extreme weather events with increased frequency and severity

    Climate- and weather-related events

    Geophysical events

    Ecological events

    Sea level rise

    Changes in mean temperature

    Changes in precipitation patterns

    Direct connection

    Other events (e.g. technological, terrorism)

    Hazards that are associated with extreme events

    Hazards that are associated with changing climate normals

    Vulnerability / Risk Assessment

    Action (Adaptation & Mitigation) Assessment

    Prioritize and Build Capacity

    Prioritize and Implement Actions

    Monitoring and Evaluation

    Amount of climate change not mitigated affects frequency and severity of hazards, requiring DRM to consider shifts in climate patterns.

    Development activities determine amount of emissions and thus, amount of mitigation needed. Economic growth presents a challenge to mitigation.

    Development decisions affect distribution of vulnerability, exposure and disaster losses.

    Disaster Risk Management

    Disasters stall socioeconomic development and harm livelihoods.

    Climate Change Mitigation

    Mitigating climate- and weather-related disasters supports long-term climate change adaptation and helps reduce vulnerability.

    Long-term adaptation goals and institutional capacitybuilding, especially regarding extreme weather events, must be streamlined into DRM.

    Sustainable Community Development

    Success/failure of mitigation dictates amount of adaptation needed.

    Climate Change Adaptation

    Level of development affects communitys vulnerability and capacity to adapt.

    Mitigation asserts the need for low-emission development pathways and lifestyle choices.

    CCA necessitates adjustments in livelihoods and lifestyle that must be integrated with development pathways.

    Gotangco Castillo, 2007; Adapted from Schipper, Lisa and Mark Pelling.

    Thank you!

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