Chapter 1

Introduction
Maureen D. Agnew, Clare M. Goodess, Debbie Hemming,
Christos Giannakopoulos, Skander Ben Salem, Marco Bindi,
Mohamed Nejmeddine Bradai, Letizia Congedi, Camilla Dibari,
Hesham El-Askary, Mutasem El-Fadel, Roberto Ferrise, Jos M. Grnzweig,
Ali Harzallah, Abdallah Hattour, Maria Hatzaki, Dina Kanas, Effie
Kostopoulou, Piero Lionello, Theib Oweis, Cosimo Pino, Marco Reale,
Agustn Snchez-Arcilla, and Mohamed Senouci

Abstract The heterogeneous nature of the Mediterranean environment, combined

with a wide diversity of socio-economic and cultural identities, make this region
particularly amenable to integrated research on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptive response. Eleven case-study locations have been strategically
selected to represent three generic Mediterranean environments (urban, rural and
coastal). While each case study location comprises a unique and complex set of
climate-related issues, the range and scope of the case studies allows identification

M.D. Agnew (*) C.M. Goodess

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, UEA, Norwich, UK
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Hemming
Climate Impacts Analysis Team, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, UK
C. Giannakopoulos M. Hatzaki E. Kostopoulou
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development,
National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
M. Bindi R. Ferrise
Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science (DIPSA),
University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Institute for Biometeorology, National Research Council of Italy,
(CNR-IBIMET), Florence, Italy
C. Dibari
Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science (DIPSA),
University of Florence, Florence, Italy
S. Ben Salem M.N. Bradai A. Harzallah A. Hattour
Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer INSTM,
Salammb, Tunisia
L. Congedi
Centro Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, CMCC, Lecce, Italy
A. Navarra and L. Tubiana (eds.), Regional Assessment of Climate Change
in the Mediterranean: Volume 3: Case Studies, Advances in Global Change Research 52,
DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-5769-1_1, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

M.D. Agnew et al.

of common lessons and messages for the wider Mediterranean region. The aim is to
perform an integrated assessment of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
at a regional to local scale. A risk-based bottom up approach (based on regional
stakeholder dialogue) is combined with a top down case-study indicator assessment
focused on a common conceptual and methodological framework.
Keywords Climate change Mediterranean Integrated assessment Risk
Vulnerability

1.1

Background to the Mediterranean Case Studies

The long history of human settlement across the Mediterranean region has led to
extensive changes in land use and depletion of natural resources (such as fresh water),
and has radically changed the Mediterranean landscape (Allen 2003). The heterogeneous nature of the Mediterranean environment, combined with a wide diversity of
economic, social and cultural identities, make this region particularly amenable to
integrated research on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptive response.
H. El-Askary
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Schmid College of Science and Technology,
Chapman University, Orange, CA, USA
Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science,
Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
M. El-Fadel
Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, American University of Beirut,
Beirut, Lebanon
J.M. Grnzweig D. Kanas
Institute of Plant Sciences and Genetics in Agriculture,
The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment,
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
P. Lionello
Centro Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, CMCC, Lecce, Italy
Department of Material Science, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
T. Oweis
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, ICARDA,
Aleppo, Syria
C. Pino M. Reale
Department of Material Science, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
A. Snchez-Arcilla
Laboratori dEnginyeria Martima (LIM/UPC), Universitat Politcnica
de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
M. Senouci
Association Recherche Climat et Environnement ARCE, Oran, Algeria

Introduction

However, few climate change impact and vulnerability assessments have focused
on the Mediterranean region. Limited examples include socio-economic perspectives of climate change (Giupponi and Schechter 2003) and the WWF study of climate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2C global temperature
rise (Giannakopoulos et al. 2005, 2009). In 2006, a NATO workshop discussed
specific climate-related issues facing the Mediterranean region, highlighting in
particular, regional air quality and aerosols (Mellouki and Ravishankara 2007).
Regional climate impact assessments in the Mediterranean area have focused on
particular themes such as fresh water (Milano 2010), fire risk (Moriondo et al.
2006), tourism (Valls and Sard 2009), agriculture (Olesen et al. 2007), coasts
(Georgas 2003) and marine ecosystems (Gambaiani et al. 2009). The CIRCE casestudy work represents the first known regional-to-local scale integrated assessments
of biogeophysical and social impacts and vulnerability in both European and nonEuropean countries of the Mediterranean region.
Within the framework of the CIRCE project 11 case-study locations were selected
to reflect three generic environments (urban, rural, and coastal), to quantify current
and future climate change and to assess the potential consequences for human
communities and ecosystems at the regional to local scale.
This third volume of the Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the
Mediterranean is devoted to the CIRCE Mediterranean case-study integrated
assessments. This chapter outlines the context of the integrating case studies, providing information on the main objectives, and describing the assessment framework and methodological stages. The background to each of the case studies
(Appendix 1) is described including justification for selection. The importance of
communication between stakeholders and research communities, and the challenges this presents, is the focus of Chap. 2. Consideration of the methodological
approach and use of thematic indicators for assessing past and future climate
change, impacts and vulnerability is the subject of Chap. 3, while Chap. 4 discusses some of the key impacts and vulnerabilities for each of the generic categories of case studies (urban, rural and coastal). Chapter 5 integrates current climate
risks with projections for the future and includes a discussion of assessment uncertainties and limitations. This volume concludes with Chap. 6, synthesizing the key
case-study results and their interpretive value for identifying critical vulnerabilities
and effective adaptation strategies, and providing recommendations for research
gaps and needs.
Where possible, the case-study assessments have exploited the specialized and
high-spatial resolution information on climate change and its impacts available from
other CIRCE research groups (Fig. 1.1). These assessments also feed into and benefit
from the policy and adaptation work undertaken within other areas of the project.
Stakeholder involvement (focusing on local and regional decision and policy makers)
together with the broader case-study outputs have allowed inter-comparisons and
contrasts to be drawn in terms of the diverse climate regimes of the Mediterranean,
together with the differing political and socio-economic systems. At the same time,
the range and scope of the case studies allows identification of common lessons and
messages for the whole Mediterranean.

M.D. Agnew et al.

Fig. 1.1 Schematic framework showing cross-linkages between the integrating case studies and
other CIRCE research groups. Climate Dynamics is covered in Part I of the Regional Assessment
of Climate Change in the Mediterranean (RACCM); Impacts is covered in Parts II and III of the
RACCM; Societal Dynamics and Induced Policies is covered in Part IV of the RACCM; and
Case Studies in (this) Part V of the RACCM

Table 1.1 The integrating

Mediterranean case studies

Generic case study

Individual case-study name, country

Urban

Athens, Greece
Alexandria, Egypt
Beirut, Lebanon
Tuscany, Italy
Apulia, Italy
Judean Foothills, Israel
Tel Hadya, Syria
Gulf of Valencia Catalan coast, Spain
Gulf of Oran, Algeria
Gulf of Gabs, Tunisia
West Nile Delta, Egypt

Rural

Coastal

Eleven individual case studies were chosen to reflect the east-west and northsouth contrasts across the Mediterranean region and were grouped into three
generic types, urban, rural and coastal (Table 1.1). The following criteria were
used to select these case-study locations: vulnerability to climate change; availability of appropriate data; and, access to regional stakeholders including decision
and policy makers. The issues of importance vary between generic case studies.
For example, for rural areas, yields of key crops, water resources, biodiversity and
tourism are crucial issues. Whilst for urban areas, energy use, water supply, water
quality, water-resource competition between sectors, air quality, thermal comfort,

Introduction

and related health issues, are major concerns. In coastal zones, key research
themes involve changes in the marine environment (sea level, wave storms and
surges, and sea-water temperature), vulnerability of coastal zones to erosion,
flooding and saline intrusion, marine pollution, biodiversity and invasive species,
and the corresponding impacts on fisheries and industry (including tourism)
located in the coastal zone.
While all case-study locations have sufficient data to allow meaningful
assessments to be undertaken, the level of detailed climate and marine data, and
the quality and length of data series for biogeophysical and social information
vary across sites. In the case of coastal deltas, for example, the scale of physical
processes is finer than the spatial resolution of climate models which merely
distinguish between land and sea boxes. For urban areas, the global and regional
climate models used for projections do not yet incorporate the physics of the
urban heat island although some modeling work on this issue has been undertaken as part of the case-studies work (Sect. 4.2; Box 4.1). Such limitations in
the current generation of climate models do not negate the need for stakeholders
and policy makers to plan for climate change and to identify practical adaptation and mitigation strategies (Wilby et al. 2009). However, it is important in the
decision-making process and in the development of climate adaptation strategies to explicitly recognize the existence and nature of uncertainty at all stages
of assessment (Sect. 5.4). For this reason, the term climate projections is
always used in the case-study work and prediction avoided. At the same time,
non-climatic factors are given considerable emphasis, particularly in the context
of vulnerability and adaptation. Thus the case-study approach is not incompatible with robust decision making approaches which are considered promising
and appropriate in the context of climate change adaptation (Dessai et al. 2009;
Part IV, Sect. 12.4.2).

1.2

Objectives

The case-studies integrated assessments had four key objectives:

1. To integrate state-of-the-art climate and impacts modeling studies focused on
the Mediterranean
2. To use a rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative environmental, vulnerability and sustainability indicators developed specifically for the
Mediterranean environment
3. To use a risk-based bottom-up, iterative approach (based on regional stakeholder
workshops), as well as a top-down approach (based on indicator assessment) to
identify and explore potential adaptation and mitigation measures
4. To consider North African (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt), Middle Eastern (Israel,
Lebanon, Syria) and European (Spain, Italy, Greece) case-study locations.

M.D. Agnew et al.

These objectives were largely accomplished through the course of the project,
although limitations of time and financial resources, and a dependence on available
data and knowledge have in places constrained or necessitated slight changes to the
original research strategy.

1.3

The Case-Studies Integrating Framework

A rigorous common framework, referred to as the CIRCE Case studies Integrating

Framework CCIF (Fig. 1.2), was developed to assess the integrated risks of climate change for the selected Mediterranean case-study locations. The use of a conceptual framework facilitates a structured and systematic basis for identifying and
selecting indicators (Niemeijer and de Groot 2008). Within this framework, climate
dynamics is viewed as a key driver of change in social and biogeophysical environments and is modulated by the inherent dynamics of these systems. The frequency
and magnitude of climate hazards is altered by changes in the climate state and has
measurable impacts on physical and social systems. The outcomes can be complex,
resulting from direct and indirect effects of several climate and non-climate factors.
Furthermore, the level of impact is altered by the system vulnerability to climate

Climate dynamics

Climate hazards

Biogeophysical
dynamics

Biogeophysical
vulnerability

Impacts

Social
dynamics

Social
vulnerability

Fig. 1.2 Schematic representation of the CIRCE Case studies Integrating Framework (CCIF)

Introduction

variability and change, and the risk involved is determined by the probability of the
hazard occurring. Societal and environmental vulnerability to climate change is a
function of the degree of exposure, the sensitivity of the system, and the capacity for
adaptation. Box 1.1 defines the key terms included in the CCIF.

Box 1.1 Definitions of Key Concepts

The following definitions refer to the key elements of the CCIF represented in
Fig. 1.2, and largely adhere to those definitions given in the Working Group II
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2007).
Climate dynamics refer to variability and change in the climate system
including for example, changes in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation
and cloud cover, large-scale circulation patterns, wind strength and direction.
Climate hazard can be any potentially damaging event or change in
climate, such as a single sudden onset extreme event that exceeds a critical
temperature threshold, or a complex combination of longer-term changes
involving multiple climate variables and/or resulting in multiple impacts
(Brooks 2003; Brooks et al. 2005; UNDP 2005). To determine the risk
involved with a particular hazard, it is necessary to consider the likelihood
or probability of its occurrence at a particular location over a certain period
of time (Taubenbck et al. 2008). The risks of climate change or climate
hazards are typically defined by criteria (usually thresholds) that link the
impacts of climate change to their potential outcomes (Carter et al. 2007).
These thresholds can be defined through research or through stakeholder
consultation (Conde and Lonsdale 2005), and they contribute to the development of a vulnerability framework.
Impacts are measurable outcomes of (or system responses to) climate
dynamics and climate hazards, and are typically modulated by changes in
biogeophysical and social systems. Impact categories covered by the CIRCE
case studies include: health; tourism; agriculture; biodiversity; water; and
energy. Some measurable outcomes, for example, water quality, coastal erosion, and invasive species, are also vulnerability indicators for other measurable outcomes (e.g., marine biodiversity; coastal tourism and fisheries) in a
cascading system of impacts.
Biogeophysical dynamics describe change and variability in the biological, geochemical, and physical environmental systems (other than climate),
such as air, soil, and water quality; sea level; biodiversity; fish stocks; and
land use.
(continued)

10

M.D. Agnew et al.

Box 1.1 (continued)

Social dynamics describe changes in social, economic and political
systems, such as demography (population growth, structure and density),
morbidity, migration, education, technology, finance, civil stability and
governance.
Vulnerability has been defined in a variety of ways in the climate change
literature (e.g., Downing and Patwardhan 2005; Adger 2006; Fssel and Klein
2006). Common to many definitions is the concept that vulnerability is a function
of the exposure and sensitivity of a system to a climate hazard, and the ability
to adapt to the hazard. Here, the definition developed by Working Group II of
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC AR4) has been adopted:
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable
to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability
and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate
of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity,
and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007).
Both biogeophysical vulnerabilities (for example, water scarcity, soil
erosion, and marine pollution), and social vulnerabilities (for example, high
population density, poverty, and human disease) have been considered.

Central to the case-studies integrated assessment, was the development and use
of a set of climate change vulnerability and impact indicators, stakeholder participation, and the consideration of adaptation measures. For each case-study assessment,
a common set of methodological steps was followed:
Identify key climate issues and sensitivities through literature (top-down
approach) and in dialogue with an appropriate community of local and regional
stakeholders (bottom-up approach).
Design a case-study specific conceptual framework (based on the CCIF) that
describes linkages between the key climate hazards, impact sectors and biogeophysical and social vulnerabilities.
Compile a set of indicators for specific climate hazards (present and future) using
the best available observed and modeled data sets, sector impacts, biogeophysical and social vulnerabilities. This should involve an iterative approach with several rounds of consultation and review.
Perform a risk-based integrative assessment of cross-sector impacts of climate
hazards using case-study sets of indicators. For an individual case study, this
integrated assessment may be of a more qualitative than quantitative nature
depending on the nature and availability of data and information.
Identify any critical thresholds in the system response to climate dynamics using
observed data, previous research, and expert knowledge.

Introduction

11

In collaboration with stakeholders and other project research groups (considering socio-political dynamics), identify and evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation and, if possible, mitigation options.
Provide policy-relevant advice based on the study outcomes.

1.4
1.4.1

Case Studies
Introduction

The Mediterranean Sea connects the coastlines of countries in Europe, the Middle
East and North Africa, engendering the region environmentally and culturally
unique and diverse. Eleven case studies were strategically chosen to provide valuable opportunities for local and regional stakeholder involvement, and to allow
adaptation issues to be addressed using both bottom-up and top-down approaches.
The CCIF approach (Sect. 1.3) was applied to each of the case studies, providing a
common methodological framework for an indicator-based assessment of the crosssector impacts of climate change.
Each of the case studies is briefly outlined in the following sections, highlighting
the areas of vulnerability (one of the case-study selection criteria see Sect. 1.1)
identified at the project proposal stage and during the early stages of the project. In
some cases, the focus of the case study was modified during the course of the project, reflecting discussions with local stakeholders (Chap. 2) and the processes of
indicator selection (Chap. 3), construction and analysis (Chaps. 4, 5 and 6).

1.4.2

Urban

Many of the cities and settlements of the ancient world were founded along the
Mediterranean coastline and nearby river basins which provided the necessary
resources to meet the needs of early civilizations. Today these cities, especially
those in the east and the south of the region, face multiple environmental and social
challenges including heatwaves, flash floods, health effects of air pollution, saltwater
intrusion, and an inadequacy of energy and water resources. Although the three urban
case studies are more clustered in the east and south of the region (Fig. 1.3) than the
more geographically diverse rural and coastal case studies (Figs. 1.4 and 1.5),
they cover diverse European and non-European socio-economic contexts and environmental vulnerabilities and have provided an excellent opportunity for using an
integrated and multi-scale (temporal and spatial) approach. In the spatial dimension,
research extends from the inner-city boundary to the surrounding mountains, forested areas or coast. In the temporal dimension, research extends from the observation time period to future time periods using scenarios generated from a range of
climate models. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts has
been adopted which ranges from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems to
indirect impacts operating through cascading climate-socioeconomic linkages.

12

M.D. Agnew et al.

Fig. 1.3 Location map of the three urban case studies: Athens (Greece), Beirut (Lebanon) and
Alexandria (Egypt)

1.4.2.1

Athens (Greece)

Christos Giannakopoulos; Dimitra Founda; Maria Hatzaki; Effie Kostopoulou;

Basil Psiloglou; and Kostas Varotsos (National Observatory of Athens)
Athens is a large, densely populated metropolitan city of around four million
inhabitants, with few green open spaces. The city is surrounded by mountains favoring the formation of air pollution during anticyclonic conditions. A dense city
layout with narrow streets, limited green space, increased motor-vehicle traffic
and long-standing air pollution problems contribute to the heat of the city in the
summer which is prone to heatwaves. In addition, flash floods occur in the densely
built urban areas of Athens during heavy precipitation events. The combined hazards
of temperature extremes and air pollution have adverse impacts on: human health
(through heat stress and respiratory disease), tourism (as heat stress, air pollution
incidents and wild fires reduce destination attractiveness), energy (as heat
extremes increase the demand for air conditioning) and peri-urban forest fires
(as higher temperatures and protracted drought increase the fire risk)
(Giannakopoulos et al. 2011).

1.4.2.2

Beirut (Lebanon)

Mutasem El-Fadel (American University of Beirut)

Greater Beirut is the largest metropolitan area in Lebanon with around two million
inhabitants, representing nearly half of the countrys population. It is a densely populated urban area renowned for problems of water shortage (Yamout and El-Fadel

Introduction

13

2005). In addition to pressures of high population growth, water demand has been
rising in response to tourism and industrial development. Consequently, Beirut
experiences an acute water deficit leading to intermittent supply in most areas, coupled with a lack of piped water supply to a large number of socially deprived districts. During periods of water shortage, water is abstracted from private wells or
purchased from unregulated vendors increasing the risk of microbial contamination.
Vulnerability (and particularly health vulnerability) to climate variability and change
is heightened by poverty, limited access to clean water and sanitation, high population growth rates, saline intrusion of freshwater resources, intense industrialization
and a lack of rigorous environmental regulation.

1.4.2.3

Alexandria (Egypt)

Mohamed El-Raey (University of Alexandria); Hesham El-Askary (Chapman

University; University of Alexandria); Mamdouh El Hattab (Minufiya University)
Alexandria is the largest city in the West Nile Delta with a population of over 3.5
million. The Greater Alexandria Area is home to more than 60 % of Egypts industry and suffers from severe environmental pollution (due to inadequate management
of solid and hazardous waste) and a lack of strong environmental monitoring and
regulation infrastructure. Its deltaic location makes the city vulnerable to sea-level
rise and salt-water intrusion. Aspects of the urban environment at greatest risk to
climate variability and change are: residential areas, energy production facilities
and industry located in the flood zone; freshwater resources (at risk from saline
intrusion); and human health (at risk from heat stress and poor air quality). The
integrated assessment focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of sea-level rise,
shortages in water resources, heat extremes, air pollution and dust storms. The risk
of sudden inundation of inhabited areas located below sea level, should for example
the Mohamed Ali Sea Wall fail, is also considered.

1.4.3

Rural

Rural areas throughout the Mediterranean region sustain a multitude of functions

other than merely agricultural production. They act as areas for recreation, and contribute to the regions cultural identity, tourism, and the preservation of natural
resources. The fragile balance of these complex systems is threatened by environmental and social pressures, rendering them particularly vulnerable to climate
change. The assessment of climate change impacts in rural areas is not straightforward since they encompass a wide range of human activity sectors (such as tourism,
agriculture and forestry) in combination with processes and systems of the natural
environment. The four rural case-study regions (Fig. 1.4) are characterized by a
range of vulnerability features and climate-sensitive issues that make them an ideal
focus for cross-sector study and integrated assessment.

14

M.D. Agnew et al.

Fig. 1.4 Location of the four rural case studies: Tuscany and Apulia (Italy), Tel Hadya (Syria),
and the Judean Foothills (Israel)

1.4.3.1

Tuscany, Italy

Marco Bindi; Camilla Dibari (University of Florence); Roberto Ferrise (CNRIBIMET, Florence)
Rural areas of Tuscany are predominantly a focus of agricultural and tourist activities. Grapevine, olives and wheat are three of the main agricultural crops grown in
Tuscany. The former is very important for the economic role that wine producers
play at a national and international level; whilst the latter is important not only
for the income that it generates but also for its contribution to landscape. Wheat
fields characterize the typical Tuscan landscape, especially in the Maremma
areas located in the south west of the region, and are appreciated all over the
world. However, wheat (usually a rain-fed crop in Tuscany) is particularly sensitive to climate variability and change. Tuscan land use has changed notably
over the last century, as large-scale abandonment of rural areas has occurred and
crop fields and grazing lands have been replaced by open unmanaged forests, shrub
or woodlands. Additionally in the last 15 years, rural tourism has increased substantially in Tuscany so that it now represents the main income for many farmers.
Cross-sectorally, water availability represents one of the main constraints in
Tuscany, with individual sectors (such as agriculture, tourism, and industry) relying
on the same limited resource.
The regional administration of Tuscany has a long-standing interest in understanding climate trends and future climate impacts on key socio-economic and
environmental sectors of the region. Accordingly, a variety of regional projects have
been conducted within this research frame, such as the projects META and ACQUA.
CLARINO (http://www.dipsa.unifi.it/CMpro-v-p-167.html) is the most extensive of

Introduction

15

these regional projects financed by the administration of Tuscany (CNR-IBIMET

and DIPSA, University of Florence, are involved in this project). CLARINO evaluates the hazards and impacts of present and future climate for several sectors of the
regional economy (e.g., agriculture, forestry, and livestock) within an integrated
framework that also assesses the economic costs that could be incurred by the regional
community to compensate for the potential consequences of climate change.

1.4.3.2

Apulia, Italy

Piero Lionello; Letizia Congedi; Cosimo Pino; Marco Reale; and Annalisa
Tanzarella (University of Salento)
A gentle topography with high population density has led to an intensification of
agricultural activities in Apulia (the south-eastern heel of Italy). The successive
replacement of existing natural vegetation with selected crops and pasture has
resulted in a loss of biodiversity. A parallel increase in irrigation crops has extended
cultivation from vegetables to trees, with intensive irrigation being used to grow
table grapes and citrus fruits, and emergency irrigation being used to grow olive
crops by an unregulated process which has little regard for the long-term sustainability of water resources. Tourism in the Apulia region is a growing economic
resource, whose future development could be constrained by a decline in water
resources, summer heat extremes, and by intrusive coastal protection strategies. An
understanding of water resource variability and decline in the context of human
society and ecosystem adaptation is of paramount importance to the region. In
parallel, temperature changes could affect crop growth, tourism and energy consumption. Knowledge of the interplay between environmental and social factors in
the Apulia case-study is critical to understanding future impacts of climate change
and in identifying potentially effective and regionally targeted adaptation options.

1.4.3.3

Tel Hadya, Syria

Theib Oweis; Lawand Hussein; Mohammed Karrou; and Rolf Sommer (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas ICARDA)
The Tel Hadya case-study (in Aleppo Province, north-western Syria) is located in
the dry region of West Asia where high temperatures are experienced during the
maturation stage of crop growth, and drought is frequent and can occur at any time
during the crop season. The economy of the Tel Hadya region relies heavily on
rain-fed agricultural systems with wheat production playing a particularly essential
role in the livelihood of the rural poor. The rural communities of the area are therefore particularly vulnerable to drought, and rainfall is a crucial limiting factor. To
boost and stabilize wheat yield, many farmers have dug wells to abstract groundwater for conventional irrigation but by doing so the water table has been lowered
and this practice is not sustainable in the long term. This case study evaluates the

16

M.D. Agnew et al.

effectiveness of supplemental irrigation for wheat production in Tel Hadya, as an

alternative agricultural practice to conventional irrigation. The use of irrigation
water at critical stages of crop growth can improve water productivity and reduce
the damaging effects of drought and heat stress on grain yield (Oweis and Hachu
2006). An understanding of the long-term trends and variability in rainfall during
the growing season can help farmers manage available water resources and policy
makers develop water allocation plans, and improved drought adaptation and
preparedness plans.
1.4.3.4

Judean Foothills, Israel

Jos Grnzweig and Dina Kanas (the Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

This region is located in the southern-central part of Israel and occupies the transition zone between the northern sub-humid and southern semi-arid Mediterranean
climate zones. A steep moisture gradient together with wide topographical variation
has created high biodiversity and considerable ecosystem variability. Land use
ranges from nature reserves to forest plantations and intensively managed agriculture with small rural settlements. Wheat (largely rain fed) is the main field crop in
Israel in terms of area covered, and is an important source of income for the rural
economy. Pine forests provide a wide-variety of ecosystem functions including biological conservation, wood production, and areas of recreation. Tourism, a developing sector in the area, relies on the rich historical, cultural and natural heritage of the
Judean Foothills. Major sources of biogeophysical vulnerability are reduced agricultural yields, a decline in tree growth in afforested systems, lower biodiversity in
afforested and natural land, and an increased risk of pest and diseases. Issues of
social vulnerability include rapid population growth, a heightened competition for
scarce water resources, and a downturn in tourism related to heat extremes and
landscape deterioration. The case study explores the risks of climate variability and
change (particularly heat stress and reduced water availability) to the rural economy
and considers carbon sequestration in forestry as a mitigation strategy.

1.4.4

Coastal

Coastal zones have one of the highest population densities in the Mediterranean
region, support an unparalleled concentration of uses, infrastructure, and productivity, and provide a vital link between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Even under
present climate conditions, the four coastal case studies (Fig. 1.5) experience a high
frequency of hazards since they are naturally much more dynamic than inland waters
or open sea, and are in conflict with the rigid civil engineering structures built
within coastal zones (Snchez-Arcilla et al. 2010). Consequently, coastal locations
constitute an excellent basis for evaluation of cross-sector impacts of climate variability and change.

Introduction

17

Fig. 1.5 Location of the four coastal case studies: the Gulf of Valencia (Spain), the Gulf of Oran
(Algeria), the Gulf of Gabs (Tunisia), and the West Nile Delta (Egypt)

1.4.4.1

Gulf of Valencia Catalan Coast, Spain

Agustn Snchez-Arcilla; Csar Msso Aranda; and Joan Pau Sierra (Universitat
Politcnica de Catalunya)
Within the Gulf of Valencia Catalan coast, the Ebro Delta and Cullera Bay are
examples of coastal areas vulnerable to change in environmental and climate systems. The Ebro Delta is a low-lying coastal area protecting a deltaic plain of high
environmental value and intense agricultural activity. The Ebro River has experienced
an appreciable reduction in flow and sediment load, leading to increasing rates of
coastal erosion, subsidence of the Ebro Delta and a decline in near shore water quality. Cullera Bay receives high nutrient loads from the River Jcar and a marine
outfall, and Cullera Cape exerts a barrier effect on currents, propagating problems
of coastal pollution. The main climate hazards for the case study are air and sea
warming and storm surges, in addition potential hazards are generated by wave
fields of a differing direction to prevailing conditions, for which the coast is out of
equilibrium and significant shoreline changes can ensue. Key issues include coastal
erosion, flooding and land loss, marine water quality, saline intrusion, and fisheries
production. Flood vulnerability in the case-study region has risen as the coastal
population and intensification of land use has increased, and the flood vulnerable
area has expanded. High insurance losses have incurred especially following the
storms of 2001, 2002 and 2008, and there has been a decline in the performance of
many coastal protection structures. Some bays and harbors are experiencing a
significant decrease in water quality, and there has been a commensurate decline in
fisheries in the Ebro Delta zone. This case-study explores associated cross-sector
coastal impacts driven by changes in atmospheric and marine physical parameters
with feedbacks at multiple scales.

18

1.4.4.2

M.D. Agnew et al.

Gulf of Oran, Algeria

Mohamed Senouci; Salah Sahabi Abed; and Mohamed Zoheir Taleb (Association
de Recherche sur le Climat et lEnvironnement)
The west coast of Algeria acts as a buffer zone with Atlantic currents and oceanographic dynamics determining the spatio-temporal distribution of temperature and
salinity. The littoral area is exposed to many ecological disturbances including
floods and sea swell, drought and heat waves. The region has experienced periods
of extreme warmth in recent years which can accelerate eutrophication, further
degrade water quality, and alter biological patterns and biodiversity. Key issues of
relevance to the Gulf of Oran case study are biological invasion (by species such
as jelly fish and green algae), food web changes, and the collapse of fish stocks.
Prey species distribution and abundance could be severely altered by global warming,
increasing competition among fishermen to the detriment of the wider marine
ecosystem. Social pressures are associated with harbor activities, scarcity of urban
waste water treatment, and concentrations of river nutrient loads and marine
pollutants. The altered sea-water composition has likely deleterious effects not
only on the organisms inhabiting these areas, but also on human health, and
adversely contributes to the overall climate vulnerability of the coastal ecosystem.
This case study also examines the role of nature reserves which act as both an
ecological buffer and an experimental laboratory (and observatory) to assess
species and habitat response to climate variability and change.
1.4.4.3

Gulf of Gabs, Tunisia

Ali Harzallah; Mohamed Nejmeddine Bradai; Abdallah Hattour; and Skander Ben
Salem (Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer)
The Gulf of Gabs is one of the most biologically productive zones in the eastern
Mediterranean and is one of the main centers for fishing activity in Tunisia. A key
feature of the Gulf of Gabs is the shallowness of the basin which means that nearshore waters are very sensitive to atmospheric conditions. Changes in the physical
characteristics of marine water, and in particular temperature, may have negative
consequences for the fauna and flora of the gulf. The warmer waters pose a potential
risk to human health, tourism and fisheries (e.g., through jellyfish and phytoplankton blooms). They also create conditions favorable to invasive species, and reduced
biodiversity with potential negative consequences for fishing activity. Biologically,
some species may not support an excessive temperature increase. During heat waves
the most vulnerable species (particularly the sedentary ones) may die, for example,
following toxic phytoplankton blooms. Jelly fish blooms may also have negative
effects on fish stocks. In addition, the Gulf has a heightened vulnerability to sealevel rise due to its low elevation, particularly the low-lying islands of Kerkean,
Kneis and Djerba (a key tourist destination). Severe erosion of the littoral zone has
already been observed in the case-study area and this could accelerate with sea-level
rise. In addition, exceptional climate-marine events such as severe wave storms are
likely to cause abrupt changes in coastline.

Introduction

1.4.4.4

19

West Nile Delta, Egypt

Mohamed El-Raey (University of Alexandria); Hesham El-Askary (Chapman

University; University of Alexandria); Mamdouh El Hattab (Minufiya University)
Population, agriculture and economic activity in Egypt are constrained to a narrow
fertile strip of land either side of the Nile and the deltaic coast that includes the West
Nile Delta. The case-study area is extremely sensitive to climate change through its
impacts on sea-level rise and water availability (El-Askary et al. 2009; Elsharkawy
et al. 2009). Climate vulnerability is exacerbated through serious environmental
stresses that include natural land subsidence, rapid population growth and urbanization, insufficient institutional capacity, and widespread pollution. A lack of environmental awareness acts as a barrier to sustainable development in the region. Since
the building of the Aswan High Dam in 1964 there has been a rapid reduction in the
amount of sediment accreted, leading to significant and rapid changes along the
northern shoreline. The most vulnerable areas in the West Nile Delta are the lowlying districts of Alexandria (an urban case-study location) and Behaira governorates, and the coastline between Abu Qir Bay and the Rosetta promontory. These
areas are highly vulnerable to the combined hazards of sea-level rise and heat
extremes, which increase the risk of saline intrusion, water shortages for agriculture
and industry, lower crop yields, flooding and inundation of prime agricultural land
and industrial facilities, and insurance losses due to storm damage and coastal
flooding.
One aspect common to all of the CIRCE case studies and one of their selection
criteria (Sect. 1.1) was access to regional stakeholders including decision and policy
makers. The next chapter provides details of the generic types of stakeholders that
were involved in each of the case studies, the process by which they were involved
in the project, and the key areas of contribution to the case-study assessments.

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