Risktec Essence of The Accuracy and Acceptability of Failure Rate Data
Risktec Essence of The Accuracy and Acceptability of Failure Rate Data
Risktec Essence of The Accuracy and Acceptability of Failure Rate Data
Definitions
Risk a mathematical combination of an accident's event probability of
occurrence and the consequence of that event should it occur.
Severity how severe an event could be, is evaluated based on the
receptors that could be harmed, considering the potential consequences
like thermal radiation, overpressure, toxic effects, reaction, deposition,
contamination etc.
Frequency how frequently an event (release of hazardous
substance/energy) could happen and the probability it will result in harm
(i.e. the potential consequence).
F a il ure ra t e
(p e r y e a r)
A ) R as m us een report
I m pr ob a bl e
( 1 0 - 2 < x < 1 0 -3 )
B ) U K A E A:
U n li k e l y
( 1 0 - 3 < x < 1 0 -5 )
C
D
C ) S m it h
1 . 8 E -4
D ) P ag e & N us s ey
4 .0 E- 5
V e ry u nl ik e l y
-5
-6
(10 < x < 10 )
E ) U K Land U s e
P la n n i n g
5 . 0 E -6
P ro ba b le (>1 0
Affects the risk estimated: The difference is risk estimated for a gasket
failure resulting in few injuries using incident rate from five independent
data sources is illustrated in the risk matrix :
-2
D a ta s o u r ce
C o n s e q u e n ce / S e ve ri t y
2 . 6 E -2
4. 4E -3 pe r
y ear
E x t re m e ly un li k e l y
-6
(< 10 )
R is k of
i nj ury /f a t a l it y
M i no r
inj ur y
Fe w
s e r io us
i nj uri e s
L os t ti m e
in c id e nt
Fe w f a t a l it i e s ,
m a ny i nj uri e s
M u lt i ple
f a t a l it i e s
G a s k e t f a i lu re da t a
Consequence assessment
Risk assessment
and analysis
HAZID
Frequency estimation
No
Met
criteria?
Risk
reduction
Yes
Specific (FTA, FMEA, LOPA)
Generic (database)
Good practice
Historical data /
sample statistics
Handbooks,
institutes database
Calculated / statistical
distributions
Note:
HAZID: Hazard Identification
FMEA: Failure Mode Effect Analysis
FTA: Fault Tree Analysis
LOPA: Layer of Protection Analysis
Comparing risk estimation for one installation using different set of failure data
Hole size: Risk estimated using three sets of release hole size distributions and illustrated in the graph.
3-10-30-100 => 3mm, 10mm, 30mm, 100mm
5-20-50-100 => 5mm, 20mm, 50mm, 100mm
10-25-50 => 10mm, 25mm, 50mm
Individual Risk per Annum (IRPA): The chance of an individual becoming a fatality. An IRPA of 1 x 10-3 would mean for each
individual, every year, there is a 1 in 1000 chance of a fatal accident. Estimated for two different types of workers
Process worker near to process hazards
Office worker away from process hazards
Potential Loss of Life (PLL): A measure for societal risk, expected value of the number of fatalities within a specified population (or
within a specified area) per annum.
PLL estimated using 10-25-50 distribution is an order of magnitude less compared to other
Highest PLL is for estimation using 3-10-30-100
FN curve comparison: Risk estimated using failure rate data from two independent sources is used to plot societal risk (FN Curve) for
an offshore installation is compared and illustrated below.
Risk estimated for an offshore installation and has used failure rate data from
Hydrocarbon Release Database (HCR) System
Failure Rate and Event Data (FRED)
HCR Database system based on all offshore releases of hydrocarbons reported to the UK HSE
FRED UK HSE recommended data for Land Use Planning risk assessment applications
The above examples illustrate that for a hazardous installation, the estimated risk could be different if different sets of failure
ure data is used for frequency estimation.
Conclusion
While performing risk assessment the assessor needs to check the following to ensure that failure rate data are suitable for the
purpose:
Database is current (most up-to-date) and auditable
Database is suitable and relevant for the particular analysis application.
Database is developed and maintained from an extensive population (large sample)
Sensitivity analysis shall be performed to identify which data or assumptions are contributing most to the risks. Adequate techniques
and data have never been available to produce accurate estimates of absolute risk. Risk analysis efforts should be with the objective
of identifying and eliminating or moderating the greatest contributors to risk.
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