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In addition to the dedicated early-warning radars, the Don-2N radar of the [More about subscription]
Moscow missile defense system and the Dunay-3U radar near Chekhov are also
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Missile defense
The Moscow missile defense system A-135 is operated by a missile defense
division. The main command center of the system and the battle-management
radar are located in Sofrino (Moscow oblast). The command center of the
system and its radar are undergoing a software upgrade.
Space surveillance
Space surveillance system is operated by the Main space-surveillance
command center. To monitor objects on low earth orbits and determines
parameters of their orbits, the system uses the the early-warning radar
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Historical data show that the weight of warheads comes to about half of the
declared throw-weight of a missile. For example, this is true for a single- Archive
warhead Topol, whose warhead is under 500 kg, and for RT-23UTTH (SS-24) - Administrivia
its ten warheads weighed about 2000 kg (declared throw-weight of these Arms control
missiles is 1000 and 4050 kg respectively). Another half of the payload is Aviation
Overview
probably taken by the bus (for MIRVed missiles), missile defense penetration Budget
Reviews
aids and things like that. There is certainly some room for maneuver there, Early warning
Contents
but we can probably assume that this relationship will hold for a notional Government
Authors
MIRVed Topol-M and for Bulava. Industry
Order
International affairs
Russian edition This means that each of the six declared Bulava warheads would weigh about
Misc
90 kg. The most lightweight warheads deployed in the Soviet Union and Russia
Missile defense
About the project so far were those of R-29R and R-39 missiles, with weights in the 110-130 kg
Navy
range (this includes reentry vehicle body and electronics) and yields of 50 and
History Nuclear complex
75 kt respectively. The R-29R warheads are unlikely candidates - they are
Contributors Rocket Forces
fairly old. The R-39 ones seem to be too heavy to have six of them fit on
Contact information Space
Bulava - 75-kt warheads would eat up about 70% of Bulava's throw-weight
Strategic forces
instead of usual 50%. It is hard to tell without knowing the details of the
missile design if this is going to be a problem.
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Another possibility for Bulava is to have a new warhead that would resemble RSS feed
the U.S. W76, deployed on Trident I C-4 missiles. According to Soviet data,
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W76 has the weight of 91.7 kg (of which 61.5 kg was the nuclear charge, 22.7
kg - reentry vehicle body, and 6.7 kg - electronics). With the yield of 100 kt, it
had a yield-to-weight ratio which is slightly better but comparable to that of Subscribe
the R-39 warhead (100 kt/61.5 kg vs. 75 kt/about 50-55 kg, which is about email address
20% difference), indicating that development of a 90-kg warhead with a 75 to Submit
100 kt yield would not require any breakthroughs and could probably be done [More about subscription]
without nuclear tests.
As for Topol-M, it is possible that it could carry the same 90-kg warhead, Powered by
should one be developed for Bulava. In this case, Topol-M would indeed be able Movable Type 4.31-en
to carry seven of them, although it would be somewhat unusual for a land-
based missile to have small-yield warheads. Another option for Topol-M would
be to have three warheads of the type deployed on R-23UTTH/SS-24 - at
about 200 kg each they would take about half of the throw-weight of the
missile. With the yield of 400 kt, they would be more in line with the historic
trend.
But then again, nothing of this really matters - none of these new warheads
have any reasonable mission. The "MIRVed Topol-M" and, to large extent,
Bulava are political projects, designed for the cold-war style competition. They
may as well carry warhead mockups filled with concrete - the effect would be
pretty much the same.
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It is (almost) official now the RS-24 missile that Russia tested on May 29, 2007 is a
multiple-warhead version of Topol-M. That was my guess at the time of the test, but now I
have had it confirmed. The...
[Is RS-24 a new missile?] [July 6, 2007 12:12 PM] [#]
Its good to know that people read this blog, but sometimes it shows in unexpected ways. In
a discussion of the RS-24 test, one of my readers sent me a copy of an article from Janes
Missiles and Rockets devoted...
[Janes cover story] [July 9, 2007 9:33 AM] [#]
On December 25, 2007 the Strategic Rocket Forces (with the Space Forces) performed a
successful test launch of the RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile. The launch was
performed at 16:10 MSK (13:10 UTC) from a mobile launcher deployed at the Pleset...
[Second test launch of RS-24 ICBM] [December 27, 2007 4:44 PM] [#]
As I wrote in the last Bulletin Online column, it would be quite difficult for Russia to reduce
the number of its strategic nuclear warheads below about 1500 if it is serious about
completing all the development programs that are...
[Long-term force projections] [January 25, 2009 9:33 PM] [#]
Russian press quotes Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces, as
saying that the RS-24 missile (MIRVed Topol-M) will carry "no fewer than four" warheads.
This probably means exactly four - the point here is that there ...
["No fewer than four" warheads on RS-24] [March 31, 2009 1:32 PM] [#]
It looks like the deployment of RS-24 is delayed for more than a month or two. The
Vedomosti newspaper quotes a source in the Ministry of Defense as saying that the
deployment will begin in 2011, after one or two...
[No RS-24 until 2011?] [January 19, 2010 4:50 PM] [#]
The commission that was set up after the December 2009 failed test of the Bulava missile to
assess the future of the program finally delivered its verdict - the program will continue. This
conclusion, of course, was expected - in...
[Commission approves more tests for Bulava] [July 2, 2010 1:34 PM] [#]
It has arrived indeed. The long-awaited news about RS-24 deployment came today from
Farnborough, where Vladimir Popovkin, the first deputy minister of defense, was talking to the
press (the news caught me in my French class, hence the title). Although...
[Le RS-24 est arriv!] [July 19, 2010 4:04 PM] [#]
The first New START data exchange scheduled for March 22, 2011 should finally answer the
question of how many warheads are deployed on the RS-24 version of the Topol-M missile.
Some press reports mentioned four, but Russian press is notoriously...
[RS-24 warheads - three or four?] [March 9, 2011 11:38 PM] [#]
When the Makeyev Design Bureau announced that the May 20, 2011 launchwas part of a
Liner SLBM flight test program, my money was on this being a version of the R-29RM Sineva
missile with more than four warheads. It appears...
[Multiple warheads of the Liner SLBM] [August 9, 2011 1:13 PM] [#]
Liner SLBM is not a mystery anymore - it is indeed a ten-warhead version of the R-29RM
Sineva missile. A new book published by the Makeyev Design Bureau (my thanks to
Alexander, who located the book and published the relevant...
[Liner SLBM explained] [October 4, 2011 11:24 PM] [#]
It appears that the story about U.S. suspicions about Russia's violating the INF treaty has just
received a new life - a report published last week by Josh Rogin, suggests that the
Comments
Pavel:
For some reason, I remember reading STARTs ratification date was July 1 and thus the 15
year agreement would expire on June 30, 2009. Is this in error?
Frank Shuler
USA
[Frank Shuler] [May 17, 2007] [#]
Pavel,
would you say it is another attempt to threaten US on their way to deploy anti-ballistic missile
systems? It seems like there are a number of different threats Russia makes and I understand
the major point is not to actually start to pull ourselves in this race again.
[Aleksandr Rabodzey] [May 17, 2007] [#]
Frank: The START Treaty was signed in July 1991 (on July 31st), but entered into force on
December 4th, 1994.
Aleksandr: I don't think a MIRVed Topol-M would be considered much of a threat by the
United States. More likely U.S. wouldn't care.
[Pavel Podvig ] [May 17, 2007] [#]
Pavel:
Thanks for the START timeline. I never quite understood that the treaty period began with the
ratification and not the actual signing. Thus, the fifteen year period covering the treaty expires
in 2009. My hope for an extension is fading. Neither the Russian or American government's
seem really interested.
Frank Shuler
USA
[Frank Shuler] [May 17, 2007] [#]
If the effect will be the same with MIRV or a single warhead or a concrete mockup, well...,
let's MRV them (after all it is the same).
Kolokol
> Well, it wont happen in two years the START Treaty, which effectively prohibits MIRVing
Topol-M, will not expire until December 2009.
Rumors indicate that the nuclear charges of the MIRV warhead for the Topol-m & Bulava
family will come from the RSM-52 with just small modernizations to obtain sligtly lighther 100
kT vehicles.
Apparently the Russian Navy is transferring two regiments of Tu-22m bombers to the Russian
Air Force, specifically the 37th Air Army of the Strategic Command as part of major
organizational changes.
I think the inference is that the Russian Navy is giving up its Tu-22ms and as a result its role
in maritime strike missions. (my conclusions)
The article stated the Russian Air Force has an inventory of 124 Backfire bombers and this
move will increase that total by 58 aircraft.
Frank Shuler
USA
[Frank Shuler] [May 23, 2007] [#]
Logical move. Hunting Nimitz based groups is not the most likely scenario for today years.
On the contrary near-abroad spots can become threatening. Tu-22M3 fits perfectly for
targeting areas in the whole Eurasian mass-land
[Kolokol] [May 23, 2007] [#]
Kolokol:
Frank Shuler
USA
[Frank Shuler] [May 24, 2007] [#]
An indication of this change would be a re-shape of the Tu-22M3 war-load. After all Kh-22 are
quite obsolete leaving just the Kh-15 as an "up to date" weapon.
Smart bombs and new AS stand-off missiles (like i.e. Klub and/or Onix) would be a feasible
option.
[Kolokol] [May 25, 2007] [#]
Kolokol:
The Tu-22M3, even with stand-off munitions available today, is a better solution to many of
Russias security needs that IRBMs. The Backfire is still an incredible warplane. Thats where I
would invest my budget.
Frank Shuler
USA
[Frank Shuler] [May 25, 2007] [#]
I agree with you Frank. Bakcfires with a deep modernization package are very well fitted to
cover up to 5.000 km farther than the Russian border. If Russia is interested in saving the
INF, the Tu-22 will be the weapon of choice. Anyway, a new/modernized set of missiles will
be needed (I.e something like the Skybolt will be very interesting). Also, the electronic set
used to deliver smart bombs, but I think this is considered in the ongoing AirFleet
modernization plan.
[Kolokol] [May 25, 2007] [#]
"Russia has test-launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile, Russian military officials
say...
The missile, called RS-24, can be armed with up to 10 warheads and was designed to evade
missile defence systems, the Russian defence ministry says...
The missile, called RS-24, can be armed with up to 10 warheads and was designed to evade
missile defence systems, the Russian defence ministry says."
[Vincent] [May 29, 2007] [#]
"RS-24 will replace ICBMs of the previous generations RS-18 (SS-19 Stiletto) and RS-20 (SS-
18 Satan) capable of carrying six and ten warheads respectively, the spokesman said."
[Vincent] [May 29, 2007] [#]
Is it just the SS-24 'scalpel'? Are they restarting production? Or is this a modernised version
of that missile? A development on it? Either way, very curious.
[Vincent] [May 29, 2007] [#]
There is no "RS-24" previously known. I bet this is the usual game with names but with an
old system.
[Kolokol] [May 29, 2007] [#]
But they do mention it can carry 10 warheads, so is it a new heavy ICBM? And if not, which
old system are they renaming?
> The Backfire is still an incredible warplane. Thats where I would invest my budget.
- But Sukhoi T4MS could be even more cool object of investments... :-)
american, russia , iran, europa..its the only names in world force now ...but ana but thers
appear for the waiting effect force. world reail force will appear soon from source of sources
,will appear from far land ,new location in heart of world , soliders was rest from tousands
years and time of wake up is will coming ,, (army of quraan)
[slave of allaah b2b] [June 6, 2007] [#]
In my opinion its not practical to equip Russian MIRVs with warheads that are less than
100kts, reduced firepower in strike weapons eliminates their principal purpose, to cause as
much destruction as possible.
I believe Russia should develop a new warhead that is simillar to the American W88. This
should allow them to arm their missiles with 10 MIRVs each capable of 450+ kilotons yield.
[Nakajima ] [November 26, 2008] [#]
,
1986 . -
29, 1987 . -29 1988 . -9.-100
. 1985 . .
..
[M.A.Pashnev] [February 5, 2011] [#]
For those who don't read Russian - the point of the comment above is that "according to
published official data" the Soviet warhead with the smallest yield was deployed on R-29RM
and R-39. It had a yield of 100 kt.
My take is that we need to see those "published official data" to make any conclusions. At this
point, I see no reason to doubt Katayev's data, which give 75 kt for the R-39 warhead.
[Pavel Podvig ] [February 6, 2011] [#]
! - "-85,, .
..", .
"" . ,,
makeyev.msk.ru
[M.A.Pashnev] [February 6, 2011] [#]
Pavel
Thanks for very interesting data. Still some comments/suggestions.
1. "Historical data show that the weight of warheads comes to about half of the declared
throw-weight of a missile."
The sole purpose of the bus is to give warheads a small lateral speeds to guide them to
individual targets. There is absolutely no physics or engineering need in making it half the
throw weight. Penetration aids are first not needed (since there is no working ABM) and
second their usefulness is questionable, since future advanced ABM systems can be able to
distinguish between them and real warheads. In any case, if penetration aids are included
they should be light. Probably the bus weight of 25% of throw weight is achievable easily
enough.
The real reason behind "Historical data" is probably that because of arm reduction treaties and
other reasons, the missiles were not equipped to the maximum possible number of warheads.
Now when Russia tries to have warheads at as small cost as possible its logical to assume
that all available throw weight will be used.
2. "Another option for Topol-M would be to have three warheads of the type deployed on R-
23UTTH/SS-24 - at about 200 kg each they would take about half of the throw-weight of the
missile. With the yield of 400 kt, they would be more in line with the historic trend."
With 100kt US warhead weight of 90kg it is highly unlikely (read impossible) that soviet 400kt
warhead will be only 2 times heavier. Especially since soviet warheads have always been
heavier then their American counterparts.
The RT-23 400kt warhead (which by the way in many places is reported as 550kt) should be
more like 300kg. Then everything falls into place: RT-23 has 10 400kt warheads which take
75% of throw weight (3000kg out of 4000). RS-24 has 3 400kt warheads which again take
75% of throw weight (900kg out of 1200kg).
3. "This means that each of the six declared Bulava warheads would weigh about 90 kg. The
most lightweight warheads deployed in the Soviet Union and Russia so far were those of R-
29R and R-39 missiles, with weights in the 110-130 kg range (this includes reentry vehicle
body and electronics) and yields of 50 and 75 kt respectively."
Bulava throw weight is declared as 1150 kg. But according to leaked designs (see Wikipedia),
on Bulava the bus is combined with its liquid fuel 3rd stage. That means bus is probably not
included in Bulava throw weight (since 3rd stage is doing a bus work). So almost all of 1150
kg can be used for warheads.
In this light the claims that Bulava can have 10 warheads seems pretty reasonable: it can
have 10 x 50kt 110kg warheads for example.
Currently it is declared that Bulava will have 6 150kt warheads. Given 90kg US 100kt
warhead, its reasonably to assume that Russian 150kt warhead would weight 150kg, which
gives 900kg for 6 warheads and sits nicely in Bulava.
4. And lastly "But then again, nothing of this really matters - none of these new warheads
have any reasonable mission."
I don't agree. However unlikely, Russia must be prepared for sudden decapitating nuclear
strike from the US. That's what all nuclear deterrent is about, and why Russia has nuclear
weapons in the first place.
With such a strike US is easily able to destroy all Russian missiles except deployed road
mobile launchers and submarines on patrol. Part of the latter will also be destroyed since US
satellite and other intelligence is best in the world and getting better all the time.
With 90-95% warheads destroyed by the first strike, its not inconceivable that the rest will be
destroyed by future layered missile defense systems.
On the other side, unlike Soviet Union, Russia doesn't have money or industry to build
thousands of intercontinental ballistic missiles anymore.
To be able to guarantee response after US first strike, the force of 1000-2000 warheads is
needed, all of which should be either road mobile or based on new built (ultra stealthy)
submarines. Thus, the only option for Russia is to put as many warheads on each missile as
possible.
If history (Hiroshima) has taught as anything, its that nuclear weapons are not games.
Nuclear deterrent is the only way to guarantee that they will not be used again.
[Dmitri ] [February 13, 2012] [#]
Nakajima
You can't put 10 475kt W88 warheads in Topol or Bulava. This warhead is too heavy: 360kg.
But 100kt W76 weights only 90kg. You can put 10 of them in these missiles.
And about "their principal purpose, to cause as much destruction as possible." its not really
correct. Their purpose its to deter any country from attacking Russia.
It doesn't matter if 475kt or 100kt warheads detonate over Washington DC., New York and
Los Angeles. What matters is that/if Russia can guarantee it in any scenario. And more
warheads it has - the better the guarantee.
[Dmitri ] [February 13, 2012] [#]
Mk 18 RV have a 150 pounds (LANL designed 4 warheads for it) and in 1967 plans were to
put as many as 8 Mk 18 Rvs on Minuteman 3.
[Anonymous] [February 27, 2012] [#]
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The RS-24 Yars (SS-27), Russias newest operational fifth-generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
By Franz-Stefan Gady
June 17, 2015
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28 Comments
Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will increase its nuclear weapons arsenal in a response to NATOs alleged conventional
military buildup in Europe amidst growing tensions over Ukraine.
The Washington Post quotes from speech that Vladimir Putin delivered to inaugurate Russias military Disneyland - a high-tech military exposition
outside Moscow in which he stated that his country will add 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to its nuclear arsenal capable of
overcoming any, even the most technically sophisticated, missile defense systems.
While Putins statement yesterday is indeed worrying, it nevertheless appears to reduce the number of new missiles when comparing his remarks to a
previous announcement he made six months ago, where he stated that Russias Strategic Rocket Forces will receive 50 new ICBMs in 2015.
The new weapons will in all likelihood be RS-24 Yars (SS-27) rockets, Russias newest operational fifth-generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM),
whichcan carry multiple independently targetable nuclear warheads and was first introduced into service in July 2010. The RS-24 ICBM together with the
single-warhead RS-12M2 ICBM (Topol-M missile system) will be the mainstay of Moscows future Strategic Missile Forces (RSMF) main attack force.
As I noted in a piece for the June issue of The Diplomat Magazine, Russia is in the middle of modernizing its strategic and nonstrategic nuclear warheads.
According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Moscow has currently 4,500 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 1,780 strategic warheads are deployed
on missiles and at bomber bases. An additional 700 strategic warheads are kept in storage along with approximately 2,000 nonstrategic warheads. Russia
deploys an estimated 311 ICBMs that can carry approximately 1,050 warheads, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists further notes.
There are many uncertainties about the status and future of Russias nuclear arsenal. One is poor transparency, due to New START having
discontinued public release of detailed aggregate numbers and the fact that Moscow does not publish comprehensive information about its
nuclear forces. The increasing diversity of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force creates additional uncertainty.
In 2010, President Vladimir Putin announced a massive 20 trillion rubles military modernization project aimed to replace 70 percent of Soviet-era military
hardware by 2020, including 50 new warships for the navy, hundreds of new fighter jets, thousands of new vehicles for the ground forces, and the complete
modernization of Russias strategic nuclear forces.
In February 2012, then-Prime Minister (now President) Vladimir Putin stated that the military would receive more than 400 advanced
ground and sea-based intercontinental ballistic missiles over the coming decade, or an average of 40 missiles per year.
These numbers , however, could be difficult to sustain, least of all because of the financial costs involved as the New York Times points out:
Russia, given its economic problems, probably cannot afford even the weapons that Mr. Putin has pledged to deliver by 2020. Six months
ago, he said the country would add 50 ballistic missiles to its nuclear arsenal this year, and at least one senior Russian military official has
indicated publicly that the Kremlins appetite exceeds its wallet.
I also wrote about Russias difficulties in maintaining the current pace of military modernization, given the countrys current economic reality (see: Is the
Worlds Deadliest Tank Bankrupting Russia):
Russia cannot afford military expenditures at such scale in the long-run () The only way for Russia to currently finance its growing
military expenditure is to tap into the countrys reserve fund money the Kremlin put aside over the last few years when oil prices were high
andmeant to cushion the economy against shocks (). Yet, this calculation may perhaps be too optimistic ().
According to a Russian-born scholar: Russia has already spent more than half of its total military budget for 2015. At this rate, its reserve fund will be
emptied before the end of the year.
However, Russia is indeed in the process of retiring all Soviet-era ICBMs and replacing them with new weapon systems, a project that is about halfway
complete, according to Western estimates. The estimated completion date for the replacement of all Soviet legacy systems remains 2022.
Tags Russia Russia military budget Russian Armed Forces Vladimir Putin
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COMMENTS
Russia is the energy, nuclear and space superpower of the world and a leading countriy in the world with no debt ... the western media propaganda about
Russia running out of money is pure speculation, and desperate attempt to demoralize the Russian people ... !!
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Maybe you should move to Russia? How many Indians immigrate to Russia? Not too many. How many Indians immigrate to US? A lot!
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Western Propaganda? Or a market reality. You only have to look at economic data coming from Russia itself to see its unsustainable. Get real
Anjaan.
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Russia's economy is being systematically attacked by the west through sanctions ... but Russia will come out stronger ... just look at the US
national debt as compared to Russia ... rest all is data manipulation ... the US Fed can print billions and trillions of dollars without
significantly affecting the economy or the dollar, which is nothing but an illusion and a bubble ... the US can get away with as long as it can
control and manipulate the world economic order ... !!
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Ruble, Dollars, Yuan, Yen. Its all fiat. Its all an illusion. If you play the illusion right you can make people think your paper has value.
Russia has no debt, but it also doesn't have a diversified economy. Resource extraction and export, and defense tech export are the
pillars of the Russian economy.
If your economy isn't diversified its more vulnerable to shocks. If your economy is based around petrol and petrol prices falter...well
you see where this is leading.
Granted, Western Sanctions have hurt the Russian Economy, but who cares? Don't unilaterally annex and independent countries
territory and you won't freak people out. Its not as if they re under sanction in a vacuum.
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Agreed ... the Russian leadership must have gamed the sanctions and decided their course of action ... let us see how this
illusion versus the bubble thing play out in the long run ... !!
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Sure you can look at the numbers and see they are report to have (give or take)
36 silo-based R-36M2 (SS-18)
60 silo-based UR-100N (SS-19)
72 mobile RT-2PM "Topol" (SS-25)
60 silo-based RT-2UTTH "Topol M" (SS-27)
18 mobile RT-2UTTH "Topol M" (SS-27)
58 mobile and silo-based RS-24 "Yars" (SS-29 )
The reality is that the SS-18 and SS-19 will be phased out completely followed by the oldest SS-25s, which is going to leave the SS-27 and SS-29 to make up
the bulk of their land based ICBM force.
Saying theyre adding 40 more is pointless, because they dont have the production capacity or funding to produce more than they are trying to replace.
Theyre going to end up having less silo based systems than before and more mobile and they still have a gap on the SLBM side, until more SSBNs are
produced.
Numbers aside, talk is cheap, you need to actually look at the current state of the strategic rocket forces on imagery and its not a pretty picture. You can
see all their sites on google earth. There are a number of KMZ files out there, check out the IMINT & Analysis blog as a starting point. They are not the
threat they were in the 80s, hundreds of abandoned silos, garrison sites for the TELs, abandoned early warning radar sites.
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their nukes can carry over 12 warheads they produce yars they said by end of the 2018 they will gave 320 yars in use ! For your information their
budget for this fiscal years is 98 bln $ NATO is just wake up the bear that is sleeping winter dream from 1985-2015 Their Army has build up 16
Large stable anti missile shields in country with 14 radars stations 400 S-400 launchers to enters in service till 2018
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whatever you say comrade.....keeping drinking the state provided koolaid and listening to the Putin Propaganda machine
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lol first confirm that you are brainwashed dude is condemning everything what others say ! Dictator of America Zion
2 Reply Share
Good numerical analysis but bad logic. Russia's vastness and low population density allows it to place their mobile ICBMs across a vast area. No
other country has this competitive advantage. All US ICBMs are static. US depends more on its airforce to deliver nukes whereas Russia primarily
depends on BMs. Which is faster and carries a bigger payload? 40 ICBMs a year is an impossible target but even if half is met, it is a game changer.
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That's counted more before that tactic that you just said now it's called GLONASS
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Soviets/Russians have had mobile ICBMs for decades, this is nothing new and while they do have a large land mass, they don't actually
deploy these systems just anywhere.
You might actually want to look at one of the Google Earth KMLs that highlights Russia's nuclear arsenal. I think you would be a bit
surprised to see that the bulk of their force is in the east near the population centers, because that's where the command and control network
is located.
They have known garrison sites, training sites, depot maintainence sites and deployment areas. It's easy to see when they are in garrison or
not. If you think we're not monitoring these systems on a daily basis, then, you might actually want to read up on what the Intel Community
responsibilities really are.
Russia isn't the only country to deploy mobile ICBMs.......I guess you're ignoring China who went mobile in favor of static silos, as well as
India and Pakistan.
If NK ever joined the nuclear club, you can bet it would be using mobile systems as well.
US depending on the Air Force? Hello, nuclear Triad does that ring a bell? You're leaving out the Navy and the ballistic missile submarines,
which is a considerable portion of the nuclear arsenal.
Russia had the same at one point, strategic rocket forces controlling the silo based and mobile ICBMS, Air Force with the Bear, Blackjack
bombers and the Navy with their SSBNs
Sorry, but phasing out 40 old systems with 40 new isn't a game changer.....
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Putin talks about taking on the USA. They may be behind us economically & in nuclear destructive ability, but he talks & act
like he is willing to use it. What do we have in Europe & on our Navy ships & subs all over the world? I think in the American
press we are not told the main part about why Putin is so mad at us & acts like his back is against the wall.
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I believe I already said the source......looking at current satellite imagery on google earth and actually looking at the silos and support
facilities and garisson sites to see what;s operational or not.
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USA is no world lover, it did like killings of so many people in Bangladesh and supported those killings and rapes by Pakistani Army by supporting Pakistan
during such time. So long and till date USA is funding Pakistan a terrorist state. It is donating them funds and providing them F 16s for charity.
I can imagine that the entire USA & European Union and their alleys working together to demoralize and break a single great nation RUSSIA. Any other
country would have collapsed by now with so much enemy countries. Similar to that INDIA is faced with many enemies and India should also take such
stands, eg. our great leaders had shown before to remain non-aligned.
Although Russia is affected by sanctions, it will bounce back stronger because it has better ethics, good spirits and principles than compared to USA. In the
long run USA will see itself in ruins, unless it maintains to correct itself. the principle of "as u sow, so u reap" will always stand.
Those groups created by USA stood against USA and made them bite dust by attacking WTC. Those who provide patronage to poisonous snakes will be bit
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Russia must ration and prioritize as funds are drying up. ICBMs must take top priotiry. T-14s, T-50s and others should wait. For the time being tactical
nukes can be developed again to overcome any shortfall in conventional weapons capability.
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Missile systems
R-36M2 (RS-20V, SS-18) missiles were developed by the Yuzhnoye Design
Bureau (Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine). The missiles were deployed in 1988-1992.
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Strategic submarines
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All currently deployed strategic submarines were developed at the Rubin Movable Type 4.31-en
Central Design Bureau of Naval Equipment (St-Petersburg). All currently
deployed strategic submarines were built at the Northern Machine-Building
Production Association (Severodvinsk, Archangelsk oblast).
Submarines of the Project 667BDR (Delta III) class entered service in 1976-
1982. The total of 14 ships of this class were built. These submarines carry the
D-16R missile system with 16 R-29R (SS-N-18) missiles. Submarines of this
class are being withdrawn from service.
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Missile systems
R-36M2 (RS-20V, SS-18) missiles were developed by the Yuzhnoye Design
Bureau (Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine). The missiles were deployed in 1988-1992.
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[Russian version] [Home] [Blog] [Very modest expectations: Performance of Moscow missile defense]
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Very modest expectations: Performance of Moscow missile
Overview defense Search
Rocket Forces
Strategic fleet One of the reasons missile defense has
Strategic aviation always been a controversial idea is that it is Recent posts
Early warning impossible to know how well the defense One of the Bulava missiles
Military space would perform if it is ever used in the missed its targets
context of a nuclear attack. This Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic
fundamental uncertainty creates a situation bombers used in Syria strikes
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in which you could get away with almost Topol launch from Kapustin Yar
Very modest First launch of the Tundra early-
expectations:
any statement about missile defense. If
warning satellite
Performance of you are in the business of building up your
Two Bulava missiles launched
Moscow missile nuclear forces, you could easily argue that from Vladimir Monomakh
defense you need more warheads to penetrate Is Russia working on a massive
How many warheads? defenses. On the other hand, if you are in dirty bomb?
Bulava the missile defense business, you could Vladimir Monomakh to conduct
always say that your system will provide salvo Bulava launch
The book adequate protection against the missile Russia tests command and
threat of the day. These kind of arguments control system in an exercise
with multiple missile launches
always worked well during the cold war and
Test of silo-based RS-24 Yars
are still working today - on both sides of
from Plesetsk
the debate.
Construction of an early-warning
radar in Vorkuta
The Soviet missile defense program provides
a very interesting and important data point
in this discussion. We have some idea of what the United States thought it Archive
needed to defeat the Soviet system. Thanks to the Katayev archive, we now Administrivia
have the numbers that describe Soviet estimates of the performance of the Arms control
Moscow ABM system. One document in the archive, reproduced here and Aviation
Overview translated below, contains a brief description of the program as it stood in Budget
Reviews 1985. Other documents in the archive provide some useful context. Early warning
Contents
Government
Authors As the Soviet documents clearly show, the system was never expected to offer
Industry
Order anything but a very modest intercept capability - the currently deployed A-135
International affairs
Russian edition system was expected to intercept no more than 1-2 ballistic missiles. The
Misc
document is a bit vague on the definition of a ballistic missile in this case, but
Missile defense
About the project it does not seem to mean 1-2 MX-type ICBMs with 10 warheads each - it is
Navy
more like 1-2 "complex ballistic targets", each of them being a single warhead
History Nuclear complex
surrounded by decoys and penetration aids. I guess that given that Moscow
Contributors Rocket Forces
was expected to be quite densely targeted some of these "complex ballistic
Contact information Space
targets" could include a few warheads (here is where nuclear intercept would
Strategic forces
come handy).The capability provided by the A-135 predecessor, A-35, was
even more modest - "a single ballistic missile from some directions." Here
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"single" probably meant just a single warhead.
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These numbers are of course particularly interesting when compared with the
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number of warheads that were dedicated to defeating the Moscow ABM. In
their Protection Paradoxpaper Hans Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, and Stan
Norris estimated that in 1968 the U.S. war plan assigned 66 warheads to Subscribe
suppression of the A-35 system - that was, by the way, more than ten years email address
before the system became operational. They also estimated that in 1989 the Submit
United States allocated about 200 warheads to defeat the Moscow ABM. And,
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of course, the United Kingdom and France argued that they needed hundreds
of warheads and sophisticated decoys if their ballistic missiles are to penetrate
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the defense around Moscow.
Movable Type 4.31-en
It is tempting to conclude that the extent of the overkill demonstrates the
relationship between offense and defense - that deployment of defenses only
prompts an overwhelming offensive response. There is some truth to that, of
course, but my guess is that the reality was a bit different - the United States
had so many warheads, there were not enough targets for them. Spending a
hundred or so warheads on suppressing missile defense seemed like a
reasonable thing to do and nobody particularly cared about the capability that
Anyway, here is the document. Itis titled "Memo on the actual situation in
connection with the U.S. claims regarding the Soviet Union's compliance with
obligations in the area of limitations of arms." (In the register of Katayev
papers , this seems to be the document "Information, 'The real situation
regarding US claims of compliance with the Soviet Union with commitment in
the area of reduction of armaments'" in the Box/Folder: 7:15.)
The memo is undated, but by all indicators it was prepared in the late 1985 -
most likely ahead of the first Reagan-Gorbachev summit in Geneva in
November 1985.
The image shows the section of the memo that describes the Soviet missile
defense programs that were underway in 1985. Here is the translation (the
words and numbers in italics have been written in by hand as it is normally
done in secret documents):
The work [on missile defense] has began in the mid-1960s. The TsNPO
Vympel of the MRP [Ministry of Radio Industry] has developed the A-35M
Moscow ABM system that has been on combat duty since 1979. The
system provides a capability to intercept a single ballistic missile from
some directions and up to 6 Pershing 2-type missiles from the FRG.
The A-235 system was not an entirely new project - the work on system began
in 1975. The plan that was approved in 1978 assumed that A-235 will provide
defense of Moscow and "the Mosow industrial region" and will be followed by
an even larger system - A-1035 - that would extend protection of "key
administration and military centers". It appears that the A-235 project has
been revived recently. It is unlikely, though, that the design goals - protection
of the Moscow region and intercept of 1-2 missiles - have changed
significantly.
There is not much information about S-550 and Sambo. As far as I can tell, S-
550 was a terminal defense system with a traditional fast interceptor that
would protect key command and control facilities as well as Moscow. It was
probably based on the work that was done in the S-225 terminal missile
defense project, which was closed in 1984 - it appears that the missile was
transferred to the A-135 system (a discussion of that transfer on this blog).
The 5K17 radar of the system - known as Flat Twin in the U.S. - had been
moved to Kamchatka(it has been dismantled some time after 2005). The S-
550 project was still active around 1989, but by all indications the work had
stopped after 1991.
The 1985 plan called for the Sambo system to be completed in 1987 and for
tests too begin in 1989. However, in 1986 this name disappeared from
documents and has never been mentioned again. Sambo was apparently
replaced by another "active" silo protection system - "Mozyr", although it is not
clear if Mozyr used metal rods as well or relied on some other mechanism (in
Katayev's notes from the early 1980s, Sambo is mentioned together with
another active system, "Aktiv", which was supposed to use explosives to
protect the silo). There is some information that the development of Mozyr
involved an intercept of a warhead in a flight test conducted in the late 1980s.
MilitaryRussia.ru has some interesting photos of what appears to be a Mozyr
test facility in Kamchatka.
Now that the Russian government believes it needs to spend some serious
money on modernization of its strategic forces, the Moscow ABM system is
clearly getting an overhaul. Russia conductsregular testsof short-range
interceptors of the system and appears to be working onnew versionof the
interceptor missile. The word is that a new missile will replace the long-range
interceptorsthat were removed from service some time around 2006.There
werereports about modernization of the Don-2N radar.Some ongoing
programs are hidden behind obscure names, like "Samolyot-M" (here is a very
interestingoverview of some of these programsprepared by Aleksandr
Stukalin).
I should note that although the system is known to rely on nuclear
interceptors, all the available evidence suggests that nuclear warheads are
removed from interceptor missiles are stored in a (presumably) safe location.
There have been reports about conventional intercept capability, but it is
unlikely that this can be achieved without a complete redesign of the system.
Moreover, the Russian designers and the military are extremely skeptical about
a possibility of building a reliable non-nuclear missile defense (in fact, they fully
expect that the United States will convert its system to nuclear interceptors at
some point having figured out thathit-to-kill doesn't quite work).
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TrackBack URL for this entry: http://russianforces.org/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/1378
As part of the "Innovation Days of the Russian Ministry of Defense", the Makeyev Design
Bureau (formally known as the Academician V.P.Makeyev State Rocket Centre, GRTs)
presented one of its recent projects - a maneuvering re-entry vehicle (MARV). The l...
[MARV is back] [August 5, 2014 11:19 PM] [#]
Comments
Pavel,
Wasn't the Moscow ABM system designed for a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere that
would somehow destroy the target? It was not a kinetic hit-to-kill system, right? So the
existing interceptors probably do not have that capability. On the other hand, in the 1990s,
there was a decision to remove the nuclear component from them. Which raises the question:
what would the new, redesigned system be?
David Hoffman
[David E. Hoffman] [October 23, 2012] [#]
David: I very much doubt the system could do a conventional intercept. Definitely not hit-to-
kill. As I mentioned, it would require a quite thorough redesign of the system - not just
interceptors, but the radar and the software as well.
[Pavel Podvig ] [October 23, 2012] [#]
There was a tender issued this year for the demolition of the non-functioning sector of the
Dunay-3U radar. The documents say the the demolition is connected to (and needs to be co-
ordinated with) the installation of 14Ts031 on the same site - which seems to be missile
defence related.
What's that?
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?
q=cache:1Zb3s2IGYSAJ:doc2.gostorgi.ru/1/2012-07-
10/3778993/1.doc+&cd=47&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=firefox-a
[SL ] [October 23, 2012] [#]
V-1000 (precursor to System A) was designed and successfully tested with directional blast
fragmentation. A-135 is nuclear only, but based on the 60's tests, conventional interceptors
are not outside of Soviet/Russian technical expertise.
There is zero evidence that current system is going to lose nuclear warheads.
[artjomh ] [October 23, 2012] [#]
SL: It looks like 14Ts031 is a radar that will support the new long-range interceptors. The
entire system appears to be known as 14Ts033.
[Pavel Podvig ] [October 24, 2012] [#]
The limitation A-135 system to intercept 1-2 modern and prospective ICBMs in background of
decoys etc i feel was more of limitation of 80's Signal Processing , Long Range Tracking of
Radar and Guidance of interceptor to its kill box using tradational Command Guidance
technique.
Now with the availability of COTS and exponential growth in Signal Processing , Energy
Effecient AESA T/R module ( over tradational power hungry PESA that needs a cooling system
of its own ) and independent guidance using IIR seeker or RF seeker the ability of A-235 or
some other system to intercept multiple ICBM type target involving tens of targets against
background of decoys/jammers is quite feseable.
What would be difficult to intercept is a RV that can change altitude and manouver in space
using microthrusters surrounded by decoys/jammers and in atmosphere using scramjet engine
that can power these RV and let them manouver in range and altitude without loosing much
speed would be tough for any present ABM system from US or Russian stable that uses
traditional means like radar to track and guide its target.
There is also this great potential of plasma generated by intense heat on this manouvering RV
blocking it being spotted by Radar systems from Ground.
All in All even if ABM systems can improve in many areas using modern technology it would
really require High Energy systems to take out such RV rather then tradational interceptors.
[Austin Joseph ] [October 24, 2012] [#]
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