Profiting From Public Value? The Case of Social Impact Bonds

Draft paper prepared for Creating Public Value Conference,
University of Minnesota, Sept 20-22, 2012
Profiting from Public Value? The Case of Social Impact Bonds
Mildred Warner
Cornell University
[email protected]
Paper presented at conference

Creating Public Value in a Multi-Sector, Shared-Power World
University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, MN
Sept 20-22, 2012
Abstract
Social Impact Bonds are a new form of cross-sectoral collaboration which attracts private
financial investment to social programs by offering to pay a market rate of return should the
intervention meet its predefined targets. SIBs monetize the benefits of social interventions
and tie pay to performance. Ideally they transfer risk from the public sector to private sector
investors and attract new funding to social interventions. Drawing from theory regarding
contracting, marketization, performance evaluation and taking lessons from experience with
public private partnerships in physical infrastructure, this paper explores the public values at
stake in the SIB innovation. Using a focus on actors, processes and outcomes, the paper
outlines the opportunities and concerns SIBs present for public administration scholars
concerned with public value creation and preservation.

Profiting from Public Value? The Case of Social Impact Bonds1

Introduction
Cross-sectoral collaboration and coordination is increasingly seen as a solution to the most
pressing social problems facing contemporary societies (Bryson and Crosby 2006). Publicprivate interaction enables a broader system view and draws on the distinctive sectoral
advantages of government, business and nonprofit organizations to leverage the full range of
human, social and financial resources to address the wicked issues confronting todays
leaders (Mahoney et al 2009). Taken in combination, the strong mandates of public sector
organizations, the flexibility of private firms and investors and the community orientation of
nonprofits offer the prospect of the development of innovative solutions to these seemingly
intractable problems. Interventions which can enable leaders to create public value by
bringing together the best that the public, private and nonprofit sectors offer are at the top of
the policy agenda in countries all across the world (Andrews and Entwistle 2010). This paper
explores the dynamics of an emerging innovation in cross-sectoral coordination, which brings
private sector investment into highly contentious and complicated areas of social policy, such
as offender rehabilitation, youth disorder, child care and homelessness the Social Impact
Bonds (SIBs) currently being piloted in the US and the UK. In this paper we will look at
three emerging SIB schemes: Peterborough UK (prisoner re-entry), New York City (youth
offender rehabilitation), and some program projections regarding early childhood education.
SIBs (or Pay for Success Bonds) are, in essence, a form of outcomes-based contract between
public or nonprofit service providers and private investors, in which financiers provide
upfront funding for interventions to improve specific targeted social outcomes. SIBs operate
I would like to thank Rhys Andrews, University of Cardiff, Wales for his contributions to
earlier discussions of this issue.
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over a fixed period of time but do not guarantee a fixed rate of return. Rather, investors can
expect to receive a return on their investment, based on the savings government makes once
service providers meet pre-determined outcome targets. Thus, in theory, government is able
to reduce the costs to the taxpayer of achieving public value, by transferring the financial risk
of creating that value to the private sector.
The rationale behind SIBs is akin to the payment-by-results schemes associated with targetbased performance management that became so popular under the Blair government in the
UK during the 2000s. Incentivizing public service improvement through performance
contracts, though frequently beset by complications, focused service providers efforts on
those issues that mattered most to policy designers. When contracts are linked to specific
outcomes it encourages goal clarity and gives organizational leaders the leverage required to
focus on key areas of activity. However, there are several reasons for thinking that the
creation of public value through the introduction of SIBs may not be anything like as
straightforward as advocates suggest.
From the perspective of government, there may be cause to distrust the commitment of
private investors to the pursuit of public value. Research has shown that the private sector is
often uncomfortable with shouldering the risks associated with public service delivery,
especially where the prospect of failure looms large (Hodge and Greeve 2005). Contract
renegotiation, the onward sale of risk and even reverse privatisation are all too common
features of the public-private collaborative landscape (Bel and Foote 2009, Warner and
Hefetz 2012, Hefetz and Warner 2007). From the perspective of the private sector, it is
unlikely capital markets will release significant amounts of equity for high risk social

ventures. In fact, SIBs may be more important as a new form of venture philanthropy than a
new form of private equity investment.
While private sector investment in physical infrastructure projects (PPPs) is becoming more
common across the world (Hodge and Greeve 2005), SIBs represent a very different variant.
Physical infrastructure PPPs raise questions about risk transfer, public sector budget and
finance calculations, and preservation of public values (Sclar 2009, Siemiatycki 2010,
Whittington 2012). SIBs represent an extension of the PPP to create private finance
mechanisms for social services. Given the high levels of returns found in prevention-focused
social programs such as job training, prisoner re-entry and early childhood education, private
financiers have been looking for ways to make investments which will yield a high level of
both social and private return (Liebman, 2011). The challenge has been how to link positive
social returns that accrue to individual client success, to a mechanism that could compensate
private investors. Original efforts to securitize investments in young children, through invest
in kids bonds, were criticized for invoking 21st century versions of indentured servitude
(securitizing pay back from the child once she becomes an adult) (Warner 2009). But as
thinking has evolved, private financiers have focused on the potential reductions in future
public sector budgets due to lower rates of recidivism, school failure and welfare use as a
result of increased investment in preventive social programs. Social Impact Bonds are the
new innovation and they are being pioneered in the Peterborough, UK with a project on
prisoner re-entry (Disley et al. 2011) and in the US by a number of governments (NYC,
Massachusetts, Federal Government), foundations (Rockefeller, Annie Casey, Kaufmann)
and social policy and social organizations (Social Finance, Non Profit Finance Foundation,
Third Sector Capital Partners, Center for American Progress, etc) (Liebman 2011, von Glahn
and Whistler 2011). Recently, the Obama Administration allocated 100 million to

experiments with Social Impact Bonds. That these innovations cross conservative liberal
regimes shows their broad financial appeal.
One of the chief rationales for pursuing SIB schemes is that private sector investors will be
willing to make investments (especially in preventive programs) for which the public sector
has trouble generating taxpayer support. However, by capitalizing the benefit in private
returns, how does one create the public value of societal recognition of the value of public
investment in such social programs? SIBs open social service sectors to the kind of
financialization we are seeing in physical infrastructure through Public Private Partnerships.
PPPs have had trouble effectively transferring risk to the private partner and have often raised
costs to the public sector (Whittington 2012, Siemiatycki 2010). PPPs also have created
unanticipated downstream effects as these investments are traded on financial markets (eg the
Chicago Parking Meters and Chicago Skyway PPPs) (Bel and Foote 2009, Ashton et al.
2012). A key element in the SIB model is the transfer of risk to the private investor. In fact,
this feature is the key stumbling block to promoting for profit private investment in SIB
schemes. Although British investors Sir Ronald Cohen and David Blood are credited with
bringing SIBs to market and founding Social Finance which is now promoting SIBs in both
the UK and the US, most of the SIBs today relay on philanthropic investment or social
investors (Greenblatt, 2011). Even the NYC scheme has a private foundation (Bloomberg
Philanthropies) backing up Goldman Sachs position (Chen, 2012).
At the operation level, some SIB schemes, such as Peterborough, cede control over grantee
selection and evaluation of outcomes to private investors. The idea is that the investor risk for
repayment is enough to motivate performance, reducing the need for government control.
This second order, devolved contracting may weaken government control over services and

create opportunities for collusion. Results based funding also may promote creaming and
narrow conceptions of program design to those elements that lend themselves to
measurable outcome evaluation. A further concern is that benefits achieved in one social
arena are not transferred as costs to another arena outside the scope of the SIB evaluationbased repayment scheme. These concerns highlight the important work SIB designers will
need to undertake to ensure that public value is created for all of the key stakeholders
involved in the operation of SIBs. Will SIBs enhance the ability of cities and states to
address pressing social problems, or further constrain possible solutions to only those that
generate high returns measureable in a performance management framework?
In this paper, I explore and reflect upon the distinctive nature of the challenges posed by SIBs
for the creation of public value. To do so, I draw upon the general literature on government
contracting, new public management and evaluation research to develop a conceptual
framework for analysing the management of public value in SIBs. The analysis focuses on
the actors, processes and outcomes associated with the design and implementation of SIBs.
There is only sparse evidence available at this time to illustrate the complex interplay
between the contrasting institutional logics that have shaped the development and use of SIBs
to date. I conclude by anticipating some public values concerns that are likely to arise as the
use of this important innovation gathers pace.
Description of SIBs
Social impact bonds represent a new innovation in social program finance. Although not a
bond in any real sense, the idea behind a social impact bond is that private investors can be
attracted to invest in social service interventions that have a positive pay off. Government

programs, particularly those targeted to the poor and underserved, often underinvest in
prevention and instead pay for remediation once the social problem becomes clear. This is
typically the case in homelessness, juvenile delinquency, prisoner reentry and early childhood
education. These societal groups typically lack voice and visibility in the broader political
system to attract preventive investments.
What is a Social Impact Bond and how does it work? SIBs are very new. In September 2010
the United Kingdom partnered with Social Finance Ltd to design the first social impact bond
(Disley et al. 2011). The program is designed to reduce recidivism in the Peterborough
prison. Since that time, the idea of social impact investing has travelled quickly across the
ocean to the US where the Obama administration has set aside 100 million for social impact
financing experiments at the national level, Governor Duval of Massachusetts has passed a
law promoting social impact bonds in that state (Greenblatt, 2011). In summer 2012 the City
of New York launched a SIB for youth offender rehabilitation (Chen, 2012). The Working
Group on Early Childhood Finance Innovation has been working on SIB type interventions in
early childhood education for some time and in 2012 published a design for a SIB in
preschool education which linked payback to reductions in later special education
expenditures (Dugger and Litan 2012). SIBs integrate philanthropy, venture capitalism,
performance management and social program finance into an innovative new mix. Because
SIBs are becoming a popular new innovation, it is important they be reviewed. The social
service sector has long been plagued with frustration that successful outcomes are hard to
achieve, and often government program funding provides the band-aid but not the cure. As a
former vice mayor of NYC describes it, SIBs can create a kind of Schumpeterian disruption
of traditional ways of doing business and provide the financial and political capital for risk
taking. This can promote change and innovation by funding programs that pay for success.

In fact, another word for SIBs is Pay for Success Bonds.
How do SIBs work? First you need an intervention that has been tested and proven to
provide a certain rate of success. It could be a prisoner reentry program that reduces
recidivism by a certain amount, a preschool program that reduces special education
placements by ensuring more children are ready to enter kindergarten, or a homeless
prevention program that reduces homelessness. The key is that these successes must be
carefully measured and monetized so that they can be used to structure the private
investment.
Next you need willing partners: government, investors, program implementers and
evaluators. Most program designs involve an intermediary that coordinates the investors, the
program deliverers and the evaluators. While government sets the terms of the arrangement,
it ultimately cedes some control to the intermediary. This makes process design especially
important and difficult. SIBs also require willing investors. To date investors have come
primarily from the non-for profit and foundation sectors patient capital with a willingness to
bear high risk and an interest in creating social returns. The involvement of Goldman Sachs
in the NYC SIB, represents the first entry of a traditional private investor and it is not without
controversy (Chen, 2012). Willing implementation partners are also required and typically
this involves a partnership between government and a non-profit social intervention agency.
In the NYC and Peterborough cases, the intermediary agencies are well established and
highly respected: MRDC and Social Finance. In the proposed preschool investment, a capital
investment group serves as intermediary and parents are allowed to choose from a range of
non profit or for profit preschool providers. Finally, evaluators are required as improvements
in outcomes need to be carefully monitored in order to accurately calculate the return that

will be paid (or not) to investors. A schematic of how most SIBs are structured is provided in
Figure 1.
Figure 1 about here
How does the process work? The SIB is not a bond in any traditional sense. SIBs involve a
complex set of partners, agreements and guarantees to ensure the program is carried out using
the agreed upon intervention, evaluations are undertaken with a high degree of scientific
accuracy (intervention and control groups), and payments are appropriately structured to
ensure intervention targets are met and private financial risk is adequately priced and
compensated (rate of return).
Because most SIBs are still in their inception, there is limited evidence on whether the model
program results can be achieved when SIBs try to take them to a larger scale. In the US little
has been written on actual program impacts because projects are still under design and
development. Given the limited amount of program documentation to date, my research
strategy involved reading a number of documents and proposals on the websites of many of
the social investment promoters in the US and UK. Written information on SIBs typically
does not become publicly available until after all the details have been worked out. To get a
sense of the issues and challenges that are addressed in the design process, I supplemented
my reading with interviews with some of the architects of SIBs from the Center for American
Progress (a leader in developing the US case for SIBs), the preschool intervention and the
NYC youth offender rehabilitation intervention. These included policy architects, private
investors and governmental leaders. I found all of these SIB designers to be very interested

in the public values questions I was raising. They had thought about them and tried to
address them in program design.
Managing for Public Value in SIBs Theory and Practice
To analyse potential impacts on public values, I first outline some theoretical considerations
and then explore how these materialize given the limited case experience to date. I conclude
with challenges for the future.
One way to evaluate SIBs impact on public values is to explore the range of actors
responsible for the formulation and implementation of SIBs, the processes associated with
the management and evaluation of SIBs, and the outcomes of the SIBs. Beck Jrgensen and
Bozeman (2007) argue that government has a special role as guarantor of public values, but
public values are not the exclusive province of government, nor is government the only set of
institutions having public value obligations (pp373-4). By looking at constellations of
public values in a nested ecological framework they outline public values that have to do
with actors - both inside and outside public administration, processes - both internal to the
organization and in relationship to citizens and the environment, and outcomes - contribution
to society. The challenge with SIBs is that private financial stakeholders (not included in
Beck Jrgensen and Bozemans schema) assume a much more influential role in the public
values creation process. Increasingly scholars are raising concerns about the financialization
of public services and how this process alters the balance between social and financial
objectives elevating the later at the expense of the former and undermining the universal
service ideal (ONeill 2010). The PPP literature regarding long term infrastructure projects is
replete with examples and cautions regarding this shift in stakeholder power and the

privileging of financial considerations over broader public values (Ashton et al 2012, Sclar
2009, Hodge and Greeve 2005).
Milward and Provan (2000) argue the need for a strong principal in social service networks to
ensure coordination and that public values are met. But the SIB schemes cede considerable
power to the financial stakeholders and often give the intermediary institution the power of
the coordinating node. Blanchard et al (1998) have argued that when the government
program administration nexus is shifted toward private parties, it alters not only the process
of internal governance, but also the relationship with citizens. The literature on network
governance gives considerable emphasis to the importance of cooperation and relationships
among network actors (Johnston and Rozmek 2008, Stoker 2006), and the weakening of
command and control functions with the shift toward facilitation and encouragement and
weak sanctions (Salamon 2002). What the SIB payment schemes set up is a harder sanction
as payment is tied to performance targets and linked to a rigorous external evaluation
process.
Reliance on evaluation is key to the financialization process as this is how the rate of return is
determined in project design and payment is triggered only when performance targets are
met. This reflects a faith in the ability of performance management to adequately align
public value outcomes with public values in the process of service delivery. This reliance on
performance management reflects the trajectory of new public management reforms in public
administration (Hood 1991, Osborne and Gaebler 1992), but it also faces many of the
concerns raised by NPM critics regarding the need to balance important public values
equity, efficiency and democracy (especially the importance of citizen and government
engagement in the service delivery process) (Warner 2012, Warner 2008, Nalbandian 1999,
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Denhardt and Denhardt 2003). Performance management systems do not always achieve the
multiplicity of objectives to which government programs aspire (Heinrich and Choi 2007).
Problems with preference alignment between actors and between outcome and process
objectives have been shown both theoretically (Lowery 1998) and empirically in market
based incentive systems (Hipp and Warner 2008, Warner and Gradus 2011).
A further challenge is the ontological foundation of the evaluation structure. Because of the
need to quantify and monetize returns for the financial investors, SIB schemes rely on
traditional positivistic evaluation designs that maintain a control group and an experimental
group preferably with randomized assignment. The SIB architects refer to such evaluation
designs as the gold standard for research. While positivistic designs work well in some
scientific applications, they have been challenged by social scientists who argue for a more
reflexive constructivist position regarding knowledge creation (Guba and Lincoln 1994). The
evaluation field itself has moved on from positivistic approaches to ones that incorporate all
actors in a collective reflection process that motivates articulation of a theory of change and
change in that theory based on experience and reflection not rigorous adherence to an
experimental/control research design (Weiss 1999, Greene 1994). Recall Kuhns (1996)
famous work on scientific revolutions and how anomalies help us break out of old paradigms.
While SIBs may be based on interventions that challenge traditional approaches, the concern
with the SIB evaluation schema is that it may undermine a more participatory approach to
learning by privileging interventions that have proven metrics at the expense of
experimenting with more interactive program designs.
Institutionalist approaches to the study of public policy suggest that there are three main ways
in which the management of public value might be understood: historical instutitionalism,
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rational choice institutionalism and sociological institutionalism (Hall and Taylor, 1996). An
historical institutionalist approach gives attention to the social, economic and political context
in which policies (and political ideas) emerge and to the exercise of political power by key
actors, especially in terms of the persistence of certain social structures. This persistence is
captured in the notion of path-dependency, which implies that institutions and policies are
legacies inherited from the past that can only be disrupted by critical events. SIBs are the
intellectual descendants of new public managements emphasis on markets, customer and
performance management. One of the goals of SIBs is to be disruptive to introduce the
rigors of private sector investors, the standards of positive scientific evaluation, and the
discipline of market mechanisms to determine payment and the allocation of risk. But these
elements raise the importance of attention to the interests of different actors in determining
policy goals and the consequentialist reasoning to which a focus on goal attainment gives
rise. This line of analysis draws from rational choice approaches which assess the strength of
institutions and policies and their potential to resolve collective action dilemmas regarding
efficient and effective distribution of resources. What is also needed in a review of SIBs is a
sociological institutionalist approach that interrogates the evolving rules and standards
governing the process of decision making by key actors. How might the institutions and
policies evolving around SIBs shift the norms and practices of what is considered right and
legitimate investment? Will SIBs promote a Social Darwinist approach undermining
rationales for investing in programs and clients who can not offer a high rate of return?
It is difficult to envisage any one of these logics as the single explanatory mechanism driving
the relationship between the actors, processes and outcomes of SIBs. In fact, March and
Olson (2009) emphasise that it is essential to account for the relationship and interaction
between different logics in different institutional settings (19). Thus, it is only by exploring
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the shifting sands of these complementary yet sometimes competing logics that it becomes
possible to identify the political and economic authority of institutions and policies, and in
turn the potential for public value to be achieved.
I adapt the public values inventory developed by Beck Jorgensen and Bozeman (2007) to
develop a framework for the systematic analysis of the management of public value. Focus is
on those features of the public values inventory most relevant to the key actors, processes and
outcomes associated with the development of SIBs. See Table 1.
Table 1 about here
Actors While numerous actors participate in the policy process, SIBs expand the range of
actors from politicians, civil servants, external service providers, clients and citizens to also
include private financiers and external evaluators networked by an intermediary. In the case
of SIBs, key public actors in city, state and national government have been involved in
making the case for their use and application to complex social problems. Private actors
include philanthropic and social policy groups. Private investors include foundations
(through their program related investment units) and private venture capitalists and
investment firms.
Actors in the three example cases are the following:
Peterborough, UK: Social Finance (intermediary), Social Impact Partnership of LP,

Ministry of Justice, Big Lottery (will make the pay back), Peterborough Policy L and
D, St Giles trust (to deliver services), Independent Assessor.
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NYC Rikers Island: Actors: City of New York City Mayors Office, NYC
Department of Corrections, MRDC (to design and oversee the program), Osborne
Association and Friends of Island Academy (service providers), Bloomberg
Philanthropies ($7.2 million loan guarantee to MDRC), Goldman Sachs (private
investor).
PreSchool Example: Actors: School District, Capital Partnership (intermediary),

Private Investors, Early Education Providers (public, non profit and private), State (to
issue tax exempt status for SIB bonds), Business and Philanthropic leaders (to
promote the program), parents (who get to choose Pre School provider).
The creation of public value is dependent upon the quality of the relationships between key
actors (Beck Jorgensen and Bozeman 2007, Stoker 2006). Specifically, for the actors
involved in the development and use of SIBs, value-creating relationships should be of the
kind associated with a well-functioning democracy, but they also must balance private
interests in a profitable return. In theory, where the relationships between key actors embody
the spirit and principles of democratic governance, the conditions necessary for the
realisation of a whole swathe of desirable public values are established. Accountability,
compromise, fairness and professionalism depend upon the commitment of key policy actors
to a well-functioning policy process and program design, whatever the causal logic of the
reasoning behind their commitment. The logics of path-dependency, rational consequences
and normative legitimacy will help drive what the actors consider to be valid decisions.
Although actors may get dirty hands in adhering to one logic rather than another (March
and Olsen, 2009), their history, goals and identity help make intelligible the apparent logics
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behind their actions. The ways in which these alternative logics play out in the case of SIBs
highlight the challenges of multi-party cooperation, which attempts to combine public value
with private profit. Public actors must operate in the context of norms regarding open
government and the rights of citizens, but private financial investors adhere to values
regarding profit and return. While SIBS to date have been explicit and relatively open (after
the deals are finalized) about the structure of payments, antecedent experience in the PPP
world shows private financial actors typically request confidentiality, freedom from public
political approval and protection from competition (Dannin 2010).
Processes In recent years, public administration has explored alternative approaches to

program management that entail the application of business process management techniques
to the delivery of public services, performance management and some level of market
competition or outsourcing. The management of SIBs relies on several key program
management techniques that are now a familiar feature of public sector management,
including target-setting and arms-length management, as well as the panoply of contract
management processes surrounding the involvement of the private sector in public policy
delivery such as contract specification, monitoring and so on. In addition to formal planning
and performance management the processes associated with the management of public value
also will include attention to mechanisms to recruit and retain private financial investment
over time. The way in which these processes are managed is likely to determine the potential
for the creation of desired organizational public values.
The process innovations in each of the three example cases are:
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Peterborough, UK Innovative Model - St Giles through the gate service

intervention. Pro Bono Economics 2010 analyzed and found a 40% reduction in
reoffending.
Investment $5 million pounds. Focus on short sentence offenders (under 1 year).
NYC Rikers Island Innovative Model Adolescent Behavioral Learning Experience

- cognitive behavioral therapy to reduce recidivism in Rikers Island
Investment - $9.6 million.
Preschool Example Innovative Model Use privately financed bonds to fund

scholarships for preschool. Preschool studies have shown significant impact in better
school performance and life outcomes but still many children begin kindergarten
unprepared.
Each of these interventions is well proven to deliver results. In fact, that is one requirement of
SIBs that the intervention be well documented so that the outcome payments can be
calculated. For an example of the careful documentation and detail used to set up the
investment requirements, program costs and outcome payments schemes, see Dugger and
Litan (2012). It may be that too much faith is placed in outcome measurement. Jitinder
Kohli of Center for American Progress argues that a hands off approach to management is
one of the advantages to government of the SIB. First it [government] does not need to
decide which approaches to back. Instead, it decides only on what outcomes to target. It is for
Social Finance [the intermediary in the Peterborough case] to work out the most effective
approach to reduce reoffending. Social Finance and investors in the bond bear essentially all
the risk. (2010: 2).
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My interviews with program architects show less faith in the outcome measurement/return
process and more interest in government maintaining some control. Most SIBs involve a
high risk investment with a low to middling rate of return. To secure financing the integrity
of the cost benefit analysis is key. But it is not the only criteria. Time frame for analysis,
protection of clients from undue risk, the ability to continue to innovate and not get locked in
to a particular reform for a long evaluation time (to ensure private sector pay out) are also
important. For example, in the NYC case, the mayors office has other reforms going on
simultaneously and does not want these stifled and held in place during the evaluation period.
Balancing the need for rigorous evaluation and testing (to determine payment targets) must
be weighed against the responsibility to improve services, especially for the most at risk
groups. This demonstrates the critical importance of balancing interests.
Outcomes SIBs give the New Public Management trajectory a more explicit market turn, with
payment, not for services delivered, but only for outcomes. This raises the stakes for external
providers beyond the renegotiation of contracts in the next contract cycle, to concern over
whether they will be paid at all for services rendered if they fail to meet agreed upon
outcomes.
The structure of the outcome payments in the three examples specifies the rate of return
based on different levels of outcome.
Peterborough, UK - Outcome payment - if reduce reoffending by 10% then investor
gets an IRR of 7.5% to 13%. First outcome payment is 3-4 years after initial
investment. Expect 1000 offenders in 2 years large enough to see if a 10%
reduction in reconviction is achieved.
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Societal Outcome - New goal in the UK is to reduce recidivism that was not
the goal before.
NYC Rikers Island - Outcome payment if recidivism (currently at almost 50%)

drops by 10 percent, Goldman will be repaid the full investment, it is drops more it
could make up to $2.1 million in profit. If recidivism does not drop by at least 10
percent, then Goldman would lose as much as $2.4 million. Bloomberg
Philanthropies is providing a $7.2 million loan guarantee to MDRC so they can pay
back Goldman Sachs. But if the program meets its targets, the NYC Department of
Corrections will pay Goldman Sachs and MDRC will be free to reinvest these funds
in other SIBs.
Societal Outcome reduced recidivism, more funds to experiment with
innovations.
PreSchool Example- Innovation Increase enrolment in Preschool to reduce later

special education placements. Finance preschool scholarships with bonds that will be
repaid from special education savings.
Societal Outcome increased preschool attendance, reduced special education
placement, broader societal (private sector) investment in early childhood education.
Like many other public programs, SIBs are intended to improve multiple outcomes for the
benefit of multiple stakeholders. Concerns voiced by program designers were how to recoup
savings from other governmental units (state and federal programs in the case of NYC or
other school districts if children move in the case of the preschool program). SIBs are unique
in that they are explicitly designed to result in greater profit for private investors if specific
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targets are met. Each of these outcome payment schemes relies on careful analysis based on
model program data. SIB investors are willing to take on implementation risks, but not
model risks.
In the private sector, it is relatively straightforward to agree and measure financial criteria of
organizational success and failure. Outcomes in the public sector are, however, typically
characterised by a much higher degree of complexity and are invariably multidimensional.
Public organizations are typically required to meet multiple and potentially conflicting
organizational goals. As an inevitable consequence of the publicness of public organizations,
the outcomes of their delivery of policy are judged by a diverse array of constituencies, such
as taxpayers, staff and politicians (Fredrickson and Fredrickson, 2006). Despite these political
complexities, there are key tangible outcomes that all stakeholders are likely to value, such as
the quality of public services, the equity with which they are distributed and the extent to
which they meet the needs of service users.
Concerns and Limitations of the SIB model
Liebman (2011) argues that SIBs only work for projects with the following features: high net
benefits and short term payout, excellent performance measures (you cant support what you
cant measure), clearly defined treatment population to avoid cream skimming and encourage
integrated programs that meet multiple needs, and credible impact assessment randomized,
quazi experimental, before/after studies with a neutral authority to measure outcomes and
resolve disputes between financiers and government. Careful analysis has gone into design of
the SIB structure. SIB contracts are complex and the time and transactions costs to develop
19

them are high. As one city leader said, If we had the ability to invest in new programs within
the city budget, then why would we do this?
One public value concern is that the profit motive of private investors will some how crowd
out the social motive of public investment. The primary protection against this is the pay for
performance structure of the SIB. Payment is only made if targets are reached, so SIB
projects are perceived as high risk and to date have primarily attracted philanthropic investors
who share similar social values. Due to the risk premium payment structure, SIBs are not
attractive to most private sector investors, or as one interviewee stated the cowboy
capitalists found in some other PPP schemes. While government may consider a 40%
success rate too low, for a private venture capitalist, a 40% success rate is high. So the
introduction of a different private finance policy logic into the evaluation of social impact
could expand private investor interest and broaden public policy willingness to take risks.
While some promoters interviewed argue that SIBs are a mechanism to take innovations to
scale and will encourage crowd in from private investors, others recognize SIBs role
primarily in showcasing that model programs can offer wider success and thus create the
evidence base for a broader shift in public funding. Interviewees described SIBs as a tool to
create room for investment and innovation when the tax based will not permit it, and as a
tool to move the field and create the evidence base for new interventions.
The process is complex and time consuming. SIBs require a more complex organization
structure than standard contracting and typically an intermediary institution is selected to
coordinate with government, organize private financiers, contract with the non profit provider
and select and oversee the external evaluator. This is the role played by Social Finance in the
Peterborough case. In the NYC case MRDC will be the manager/evaluator but the city has
20

retained more control over provider selection and evaluation. The city did this because it
recognized that youth offenders are a group with weak voice and the city could not devolve
its oversight role to an external actor.
One of the concerns that links actors and process is the power differentials among actors that
may enable one party to take advantage of another. In PPPs the private financiers typically
have more knowledge about finance, risk, onward sale than the public partners leading public
partners to under-price assets and end up holding more risk than anticipated (Ashton et al.
2012). Are the same concerns possible under SIBs? Technically yes, but practically
probably not. First, the high risk involved in SIBs (no payment unless performance targets
are reached) will discourage investors who lack a social mission. And the commonality of
social mission will help to ameliorate concerns arising from power differentials. Too date
deals have been structured based on lower success than what model programs would indicate.
For example, in the preschool case the model program data suggested special education
placements would be reduced from 18% to 2.5% but the payback is based on a reduction
from 18% to 7%. So if the program achieves model program results, then the value of 4.5
special education placements will be a savings that accrues to the school district that can be
invested in other programs. School districts face tight budgets and school superintendents are
experts, so the other side of the SIB is a public agency that is well informed.
Another concern regarding process is the faith in performance measurement and external
evaluations to ensure that program targets really are met and budget savings (that will be used
to pay back the SIB) are generated. Unlike PPPs were private partners expect pubic partners
to shoulder much of the risk, in SIBs the design is built on the notion of risk transfer to the
private financier. This has limited private financial interest in SIBs to date. Over time as the
21

SIB experiment matures, designers will need be careful as financial experts attempt to
structure secondary markets to bundle SIBs and sell future contracts. Already efforts are
underway to encourage state governments to make social impact bonds tax exempt inorder to
increase private financial interest (Dugger and Litan 2012). Although SIBs represent a new
financial innovation they differ from other innovations (securitization, debt default swaps)
that have been created in the last 20 years and led to high complexity, limited understanding
and great risk (leading to the Great Recession) (The Economist 2012). The key to the SIB
innovation is that both government and the private financiers, through the intermediary, are
closely linked to the funding target and this local knowledge, generated from the evaluation,
helps ensure appropriate pricing and controls on the contract. In fact one city leader
commented that SIBs bring a level of precision to budget analysis as payments are linked to
clear milestones.
Innovation and knowledge generation regarding what works are two of the goals of SIBs. But
who owns this knowledge and for how long is the intervention held static? If a new
intervention has positive impact, will its diffusion be slowed so that the rigorous evaluation
of the intervention vs the control group can continue and so that the private investor can
continue to reap maximum returns from the differential outcomes? While SIBs promote
innovation in the medium term, there is the risk that they could stifle diffusion in the short
term. Some designers had not thought about potential limits to diffusion of innovation of the
ongoing evaluation and the interests of private investors to reap their maximum returns for a
longer time horizon. Diffusion can also be slowed by the need to maintain a control group to
compare to the treatment group in the out years. This is one reason why all three examples
keep both the intervention and the ongoing evaluation time period short. The intervention in
each case is less than a year and the follow on evaluation occurs over several more years to
22

make sure the positive impacts of the intervention hold. But none of these experiments
extends beyond 5-10 years. As one city leader said in core critical government services you
have a responsibility to do it in a way that doesnt bind you for a long time.
Public awareness of SIBs is only now emerging. The NYC SIB was profiled in the New York
Times in July 2012. A review of readers comments on the NY Times website shows the
reading public is thinking about the public values at stake. Comments show there are those
who see the positive upside potential.
The Social Impact Bond is an innovative way to fund social programs, without
costing the government or taxpayers any money. I applaud Mayor Bloomberg, and the
rest of New York City for taking a risk with this. I hope it will yield the results we
hope it to -- both reducing recidivism, and saving the city money.
I read about this program several years ago in the New Yorker and I'm glad it has
moved from the back burner to front and center; its success rate has been phenomenal.
In fact, so successful those larger metropolises like New York were eyeing it heavily.
But, I agree wholeheartedly with Professor Mark Rosen's comment encouraging
investment in order to generate private profit" might backfire and shed a negative
light on what could possibly become be one of the best crime deterrent's New York
has ever encompassed.
If you read Professor Liebman's report on Social Impact Bonds, you see that this has
nothing to do with privatizing: in the end, if MDRC is effective in helping these
individuals, the city will save money. Goldman Sachs' role in this transaction is to
help fund a successful nonprofit, with an end result of cost savings for the city.
23

Comments also show the public is worried about the down side risks, and distrusts private
finance in general and Goldman Sachs in particular.
So, will Goldman treat this venture as many in the financial sector did with securities
sold to clients -- essentially betting behind those clients' backs that they would lose
their shirts?
Will there be some kind of bet-against-it bond or insurance if the bond fails? And
will Goldman Sachs be allowed to create / invest in such a bond? Will they be able to
chop up these bonds and rate them as triple A? Wouldn't be the first time...
Other comments showed concerns with the legitimacy of the metrics.
But who will be in charge of measuring these outcomes and how can anyone be sure
it won't be with some of the same tricks used to significantly improve NYC test
scores?
Finally, there are those who worry about the shift in public values toward financialization of
social goals.
Unfortunately, rather than paying more taxes, the rich are trying to skirt the system
by throwing it some leftovers. If they are willing to throw money at Social Impact
Bonds, why are they so opposed to paying it in taxes?
24

The general point is that punishing crime is a civic/government responsibility, not

something that private investors should be able to make money at.
Those who founded this country understood the importance of public spaces and
public services. They were part of the social contract we made with each other as
citizens. That we continue to decimate government services for the sake of private
gain is a disgrace.
Conclusion
This paper has presented a preliminary analysis of SIBS drawing upon theory and cases to
what challenges designers face in securing public value. The analysis has provided a
framework for the conflicting institutional logics that have shaped the development,
management and diffusion of SIBs. By exploring the salience of context, consequences and
legitimacy it is possible to assess some of the implications of SIBs for public value.
Regarding path-dependency, SIBs reflect the continuing logic of neo-liberalism and the sway
neo-liberal ideas and interests continue to hold over government thinking. Regarding
consequences - the use of SIBs can be regarded as the product of the third way ideology that
only results matter, which is also associated with NPM-style reforms (and for some the idea
of a welfare state, see March and Olsen, 2009). Regarding legitimacy, SIBs are indicative of
a wider predilection towards the adoption of fashionable ideas in the pursuit of doing what
works. This can be reflected in processes of imitation whereby policy-makers seek to copy
ideas whose time appears to have come, as well as processes of coercion whereby principals
seek to compel subordinate agents to adopt those fashionable ideas.
25

Overall, one might think of the outcomes associated with the management of public value as
being essential societal in nature, that is, they are intended to reflect the contribution of the
public sector to society as a whole (Beck Jorgensen and Bozeman, 2007). The societal public
values to which these outcomes contribute are akin to meta-values, which provide the
ultimate foundation for the pursuit (and analysis) of public value. They encapsulate such
values as the common good, altruism, sustainability and regime stability, each of which
contributes towards something like the conception of the good life within the democratic
state. Ultimately, the extent to which SIBs can realise all of their intended outcomes or only a
limited, or even partial, sub-set of those outcomes will tell us a great deal about the wider
contribution of the initiative to the public good and to private interests.
26

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Figure 1: Organizational Structure of a Social Impact Bond
Private(Investors(
Evaluator(
Provide(Working(Capital(to(SIB(
Receive(Performance(Based(
Payments(
Conducts(
external(review(
to(determine(if(
performance(
targets(are(met(
Intermediary(
(Bond(Issuing(
OrganizaBon)(
Government(
Determines(
Performance(
Based(Target(
Outcomes(
Recruits(Private(Capital(and(Repays(
based(on(performance(targets,((
Selects(and(Pays(Service(Provider,((
Selects(External(Evaluator(
Service(Provider(
Receives(
Funding(for(
OperaBng(
Costs(

Table 1.
Framework for analyzing the management of public value
Description
Actors
Politicians,
Government
Managers,
Private
Financiers,
Service
Providers,
Evaluators,
Service
Recipients,
Citizens
Performance
management
targets,
Contracting,
Innovation,
Diffusion
Service quality
Service equity
Public trust/
support for social
programs,
Profit and Private
Sector Return,
Redefinition of
public goods?
Processes
Outcomes
Public value
category
Democratic
Power
relationships
between SIB
financiers and
other
stakeholders
Public value set Value sub-sets

Political loyalty,
openness,
neutrality,
cooperation,
legality, equity,
dialogue,
service
recipient
orientation
Accountability,
responsiveness,
compromise,
stakeholder value,
equal rights, due
process, fairness,
professionalism,
citizen/service
recipient involvement
Organizational
Intra-
organizational
behaviour and
characteristics
Robustness,
innovation,
productivity

Adaptability, stability,
reliability, timeliness,
risk readiness,
effectiveness,
balancing interests,
Societal
Contribution to
society
Common good,
altruism,
sustainability,
regime dignity
Public interest, social

cohesion, human
dignity, voice of the
future, regime stability

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Draft paper prepared for Creating Public Value Conference,

University of Minnesota, Sept 20-22, 2012