Mainstreet - Final B.C. Election 2017 Poll
Mainstreet - Final B.C. Election 2017 Poll
Mainstreet - Final B.C. Election 2017 Poll
ELECTION 2017
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM PST, MAY 8, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
When this election began a few short weeks ago, John Horgan and the NDP have run a decent
Christy Clark found herself in a familiar position, campaign, they have not made some of the same
she was once again the underdog to the renewed mistakes that his predecessor Adrian Dix made in
NDP under leader John Horgan. Like in 2013, her 2013. Not making big mistakes however, is not the
BC Liberal led government had suered from a yardstick by which campaigns looking to uproot
prolonged series of scandals, cash for access incumbent governments are measured. Horgans
was perhaps the best known across Canada but debate performances were received largely
other local issues like Yoga-gate and issues with positively, but his favourability with voters, and his
both Education and Healthcare, the top two inability to shake his angry reputation, will
responsibilities of any Provincial government. ultimately serve to keep him in the Opposition
Housing aordability had become a big problem Leader chair.
across greater Vancouver and continues to be a
great concern. Environmental protection became a Ultimately, this election will be largely like 2013,
growing concern with the federal approval of the another BC Liberal majority government. Our
Kinder Morgan pipeline, and opponents vowed to research across North America and other
ght the Provincial and Federal governments on jurisdictions is consistent on a single principle, the
this issue. Among her most vocal opponents on economic climate dictates the mood of the
Kinder Morgan was Vancouver Mayor, Gregor electorate. Although aordable housing has been
Robertson. a growing concern, jobs and the economy have
been the top issue identied by numerous polls
The campaign itself was bitter and nasty at times, and pollsters. While house prices have soared in
including the #IAmLinda twitter campaign that greater Vancouver, causing concerns, many more
dogged the BC Liberal leader for days on the have benetted from the increases. Despite the yet
campaign trail. With two weeks to election day, the unfullled promise of a massive LNG market, the
NDP had opened up a nearly 10 point lead and the BC economy has done well while maintaining
Green Party was stealing just as many votes from balanced budgets unlike most other Canadian
BC Liberals as they were from the NDP. It seemed Provinces.
like a very dierent election than the last time
around. Which brings me back to the title, Dj vu all over
again, a famous quote from Yogi Berra. Christy
Andrew Weaver and the Green party have been an Clark and the BC Liberals will emerge again on
x factor in this election and are headed for a top, solidifying Christy Clarks title as the
historic result on May 9th that should not be comeback kid and sending the NDP back to the
overlooked. They will not form government, they drawing board.
will not be the ocial opposition, its quite likely
that their goal of reaching ocial party status may We conducted polls in 4 ridings that we believe
also fall just short, but that is not clear. They will are bellwethers; Surrey-Fleetwood, Delta-North,
register the highest percentage of the popular Saanich North & The Islands and Fraser-Nicola.
vote ever recorded for a Green Party in any This points to signicant candidate and incumbent
Canadian jurisdiction. They will likely have the strength that will make the dierence in close
highest seat count of any Green Party in any races. The province-wide numbers plus the 4
Canadian jurisdiction. That result on Tuesday ridings where we have BC Liberals leading puts
should shake up BC politics for the next few years, the BC Liberals at the 44 seats needed for a
and should be an encouraging sign for Elizabeth majority, and using those riding results as an
May and the federal Green Party who have failed indicator for other close ridings, points to the
to make gains despite repeated eorts. possibility of signicantly more.
BC LIBERALS SET FOR MAJORITY, AGAIN
May 8, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the BC Liberals set to return to the
legislature in major numbers. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20.
Its 2013 all over again said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Our nal poll nds the NDP
and Liberals in a dead heat - but despite the statistical tie in support, were expecting a Liberal majority
government on Tuesday night. For the NDP to win they would need to be leading by substantially more
given the ineciency of their vote, with a statistical dead heat, we expect Liberal incumbents will be able
to pull themselves over the nish line.
Its important to remember that these numbers do not exist in stasis - with the poll having nished on
Saturday, and the voters moving towards the Liberals in the closing day, its likely the Liberals could pick up
another point or two in support.
While the Greens are set for their best night ever, it will be a tough slog to ocial party status. Our riding
poll of Saanich North & the Islands indicates that Adam Olsen may be able to pull o a victory - where other
pick-ups may come from is tough to say. Perhaps Cowichan Valley where Green Leader Andrew Weaver
visited over the weekend. Despite the Greens being in line for their best ever result, their support strength
is weak and they are at the mercy of the rst past the post system which does not reward support a mile
wide and an inch deep.
It looks as though the NDP are facing a disappointing nish and will need to reassess what to do in the
future. Its important to remember though that Christy Clark is a talented campaigner, her team, for the
most part, ran an ecient, targeted and eective campaign. She is the Comeback Kid, all over again,
nished Maggi.
-30-
STRONG SUPPORTERS
Fraser- Nicola
RIDING SPOTLIGHT
Delta North
Surrey-Fleetwood
PROVINCIAL D&L: STRONG VOTERS ONLY
Decided & Leaning - but only for voters who say they are strong supporters and
wont change their mind.
Who Will Win The Election?
Note that many Green Voters (37%, see next page for table) believe the Liberals
will win the election and are voting Green regardless.