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    TN-Sen: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) For Phil Bredesen (April 2018)

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    Daily Kos Elections
    Garin-Hart-Yang poll for TN-Sen candidate Phil Bredesen

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    TN-Sen: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) For Phil Bredesen (April 2018)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    730 views3 pages
    Garin-Hart-Yang poll for TN-Sen candidate Phil Bredesen

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    TN-Sen: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for Phil Bredesen (April 2018)

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    Garin-Hart-Yang poll for TN-Sen candidate Phil Bredesen

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    730 views3 pages

    TN-Sen: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) For Phil Bredesen (April 2018)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    Garin-Hart-Yang poll for TN-Sen candidate Phil Bredesen

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 3

    1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW

    Washington, DC 20009
    Tel: (202) 234-5570
    Fax: (202) 232-8134
    www.hartresearch.com

    TO: Bredesen for Senate


    FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
    DATE: April 20, 2018
    RE: Recent Statewide Survey
    Between April 9 and 11, 2018, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative
    sample of 601 likely general election voters on both landlines and cell phones. The
    survey, which has a margin of error of +4%, is reflective of Tennessee’s
    demographic, geographic, and political trends; for example, the party self-
    identification among our survey respondents is 31% Democratic, 44% Republican.
    The following presents the key survey findings.

    Phil Bredesen holds a double digit advantage over Marsha Blackburn, and
    importantly has crossed the “majority” mark in support.

    Trial Heat for US Senator


    +10 Bredesen

    Marsha Phil
    Blackburn Bredesen
    41% 51%

    Undecided
    8%

    Our survey data suggests that, not surprisingly given the polarization in American
    politics today, the Tennessee electorate is “settled” in to their Senate choices even
    this far out from November, meaning there is a low amount of persuadable voters.
    First, just 8% of Tennessee voters say they are undecided in the Senate election,
    and BOTH Bredesen (91% committed support) and Blackburn (91% committed
    support) voters are locked into supporting their respective candidates.

    Page 1
    Phil Bredesen holds the lead over Blackburn due largely to the bipartisan leadership
    he brought to his two terms as governor, which voters clearly remember and
    embrace in the 2018 U.S. Senate election. For example, he leads by a strong
    53%-34% margin among Independents, and Bredesen earns a notable share
    (19%) of the Republican vote, which speaks to his ability to earn support across
    party lines even in these polarized times.

    Indeed, despite the Republican nature of our sample, Tennessee voters’ ability to
    look beyond partisanship with regard to Governor Bredesen is notable. Again,
    bearing in mind that the poll sample is Republican, consider these feeling
    thermometer ratings among the electorate:

    Feelings Toward Candidates

    Positive feelings Negative feelings

    +28 positive
    44%
    +3 positive

    33%
    30%

    16%

    Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn

    We mentioned earlier the Governor’s solid lead among Independent voters, which
    is largely due to Phil Bredesen’s ratings among this key group running positive by
    BETTER than a three to one ratio, while Blackburn’s image is more polarizing with
    this group at 27% positive, and 27% negative.

    Finally, it is evident that Phil Bredesen benefits from the stark “Tennessee versus
    Washington” distinction, with voters seeming to make NO partisan distinction when
    it comes to the latter. When Tennesseans are asked to rate his tenure as governor,
    Phil Bredesen receives POSITIVE marks from a majority of voters, with just 5%
    rating his performance as “poor.” Congresswoman Blackburn, by contrast, has a
    job performance rating that is underwater at 33% positive and 42% negative.

    Page 2
    In summary, Phil Bredesen’s re-introduction to Tennessee voters has been
    successful because he already started the 2018 campaign with strong credibility on
    providing honest, bipartisanship leadership, which is in many ways the perfect
    contrast with his opponent—a hyper-partisan 15-year member of Congress. Thus,
    despite the difficult partisan terrain in Tennessee, the polling data shows that Phil
    Bredesen remains in a strong position to be elected U.S. Senator.

    Page 3

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