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    Exam 2 Review Discussion Problems: 4. The Director of Social Services of A County Has Learned That The State Has Mandated

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    Mae Lagliva
    This document contains an exam review with 5 discussion problems related to forecasting, decision making, and workstation assignment. Problem 1 asks for a simple moving average forecast. Problem 2 asks for a weighted moving average forecast. Problem 3 asks for an exponential smoothing forecast. Problem 4 evaluates decision making criteria for alternative options. Problem 5 involves assigning tasks to workstations to maximize efficiency.

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    Exam 2 Review Discussion Problems: 4. The Director of Social Services of A County Has Learned That The State Has Mandated

    Uploaded by

    Mae Lagliva
    49 views4 pages
    This document contains an exam review with 5 discussion problems related to forecasting, decision making, and workstation assignment. Problem 1 asks for a simple moving average forecast. Problem 2 asks for a weighted moving average forecast. Problem 3 asks for an exponential smoothing forecast. Problem 4 evaluates decision making criteria for alternative options. Problem 5 involves assigning tasks to workstations to maximize efficiency.

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    Original Title

    PreExam2 DIS

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    This document contains an exam review with 5 discussion problems related to forecasting, decision making, and workstation assignment. Problem 1 asks for a simple moving average forecast. Problem 2 asks for a weighted moving average forecast. Problem 3 asks for an exponential smoothing forecast. Problem 4 evaluates decision making criteria for alternative options. Problem 5 involves assigning tasks to workstations to maximize efficiency.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as doc, pdf, or txt
    49 views4 pages

    Exam 2 Review Discussion Problems: 4. The Director of Social Services of A County Has Learned That The State Has Mandated

    Uploaded by

    Mae Lagliva
    This document contains an exam review with 5 discussion problems related to forecasting, decision making, and workstation assignment. Problem 1 asks for a simple moving average forecast. Problem 2 asks for a weighted moving average forecast. Problem 3 asks for an exponential smoothing forecast. Problem 4 evaluates decision making criteria for alternative options. Problem 5 involves assigning tasks to workstations to maximize efficiency.

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    of 4

    Exam 2 Review Discussion Problems

    1. Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast
    for period 6?

    A) 67
    B) 115
    C) 69
    D) 68
    E) 68.67

    2. Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period
    moving average forecast for period 5?

    A) 144.20
    B) 144.80
    C) 144.67
    D) 143.00
    E) 144.00

    3. A manager is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at a suburban branch


    of a department store chain. Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number of returns
    of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the next period?

    4. The director of social services of a county has learned that the state has mandated
    additional information requirements. This will place an additional burden on the agency.
    The director has identified three acceptable alternatives to handle the increased workload.
    One alternative is to reassign present staff members, the second is to hire and train two
    new workers, and the third is to redesign current practice so that workers can readily
    collect the information with little additional effort. An unknown factor is the caseload for
    the coming year when the new data will be collected on a trial basis. The estimated costs
    for various options and caseloads are shown in the following table:

    1
    Assuming that past experience has shown the probabilities of various caseloads to be
    unreliable, what decision would be appropriate using each of the following criteria?
    a. Maximin. b. Maximax. c. Minimax regret. d. Laplace.

    5. A manager wants to assign tasks to workstations as efficiently as possible, and achieve


    an hourly out-put of 4 units. The department uses a working time of 56 minutes per hour.
    Assign the tasks shown in the accompanying precedence diagram ( times are in minutes)
    to workstations using the following rules:
    a. In order of most following tasks. Tiebreaker: greatest positional weight.
    b. What is the efficiency?

    2
    Solutions:
    1. D 2. B
    3. Answer:

    4. Answer:
    Moderate High Very High Worst Best Average
    Reassign 50 60 85 85 50 65
    New Staff 60 60 60 60* 60 60 (tie)
    Redesign 40 50 90 90 40* 60
    a. Maximin: New staff
    b. Maximax: Redesign
    c. Regret table: (minimax Regret : New Staff )

    Moderate High Very High Worst


    Reassign 10 10 25 25
    New Staff 20 10 0 20*
    Redesign 0 0 30 30
    d. (tie) New Staff or Redesign
    5 Answers:
    Desired output = 4
    Operating time = 56 minutes
    Operating time 56 minutes per hour
    CT    14 minutes per unit
    Desired output 4 units per hour

    Task # of Following tasks Positional Weight


    A 4 23
    B 3 20
    C 2 18
    D 3 25
    E 2 18
    F 4 29
    G 3 24
    H 1 14
    I 0 5

    3
    5. Solutions (continued)
    a. First rule: most followers. Second rule: largest positional weight.
    Assembly Line Balancing Table (CT = 14)
    Time Eligible
    Work Station Assigned Task
    Remaining Tasks
    I 14 a, d, f f
    9 a,d,g a
    6 b, g g
    0 - -

    II 14 b,d d
    7 b, e b
    5 c,e c (c or e, here arbitrarily choose c)
    1 - -

    III 14 e e
    10 h h
    1 - -

    IV 14 i i
    9 - -
    Total time 45
    b. Efficiency    80.36%
    CT x no. of stations 56

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