Mckinsey Quarterly 2018 Number 4
Mckinsey Quarterly 2018 Number 4
Mckinsey Quarterly 2018 Number 4
2018 Number
Number 44
Cover illustration by
Alessandro Gottardo
THIS QUARTER
If you are anything like me, you’ve probably settled into some well-grooved
techniques for setting direction and solving business problems: We form
hypotheses on the basis of frameworks and mental models that simplify the
world; we test them through a combination of facts, analysis, pattern
recognition, and experience; and then, informed by the results of those tests,
we chart a course. There’s a lot to be said for this approach, which has its
roots in the scientific-inquiry method that helped create our modern world,
and which isn’t going away.
But it also isn’t enough. Leaders today can let go of their hypotheses and let
the data speak through the application of artificial intelligence and advanced
analytics. They can pursue radical change through human-centered design
techniques aimed at rising expectations and unmet needs. They can undertake
rapid prototyping to test, learn, and pursue initiatives that once might have
required months or years of study and planning. All of this requires fresh skills
and mind-sets that many leaders lack.
The individual challenge is multiplied many times for the enterprise as a whole,
and so is the prize: activating the organization to identify new business
opportunities and to disrupt before being disrupted. This issue of the Quarterly
lays out three critical priorities for seizing that prize. In “The cornerstones
of large-scale technology transformation,” my colleagues Michael Bender,
Nicolaus Henke, and Eric Lamarre provide a road map for companies
struggling to make the most of the advanced technologies and analytics at their
disposal today. The challenges, they suggest, are less about technology
per se than they are about integrating multiple technologies with one another
and stretching the last mile to derive value from them, and from the data
associated with them.
“The business value of design” also focuses on the importance of integration—
of design and the user with a company’s business priorities, and of multiple
perspectives, on cross-functional teams, pursuing iterative development
processes. My coauthors and I describe how to stretch toward this ideal and
show that reaching it isn’t just a nice-to-have these days; it’s a critical enabler
of financial success in just about any physical, service, and digital setting.
Hugo Sarrazin
Senior partner,
Silicon Valley office
McKinsey & Company
Features
Features
94 Accidentally agile: An interview with
the Rijksmuseum’s Taco Dibbits
The director of the national museum of Dutch art and history
describes the central role of agility in the museum’s massive
renovation project—and in its drive for perpetual renewal.
13 INDUSTRY DYNAMICS
The symbiotic relationship between Learning from digital threats
organizational health and safety Incumbent companies are finding they have
Management practices focusing on “hard” strong hands to play as competition intensifies.
incentives, rewards, and consequences, as
well as on employees’ mind-sets and values, 32
make workplaces safer. Why banks are welcoming the disruptors
Randy Lim, Jean-Benoît Grégoire Rousseau, Partnerships with fintech companies are
and Brooke Weddle getting broader as start-ups offer new digital
capabilities and competitive business models.
17 Jay Datesh, Miklós Dietz, and Miklós Radnai
128
Taking the ‘outside view’
In this new series, we highlight the cognitive
and organizational biases that sometimes trip
up executives and undermine good decision
making. This quarter’s busted bias: the tyranny
of inward focus.
Tim Koller and Dan Lovallo
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Diversity matters in the workplace. It boards that hire them, should be asking
is an important social issue, and a tougher questions about diversity and
performance imperative: more diverse asking those questions sooner than they
top-management teams appear to normally do.
benefit from a richer decision-making
dialogue, which can contribute to A missed opportunity
better financial performance.1
At the beginning of their tenures, new
CEO transitions matter, too. Our research CEOs typically change the makeup
has shown that a CEO’s likelihood of of their management teams. Our research
outperforming his or her peers depends shows that more than two-thirds of
heavily on the mix of strategic and chief executives replace at least half of the
organizational decisions made during the members of their top teams within two
first two years on the job.2 Manage- years of taking office.3 They may do so to
ment reshuffles—a critical piece of the per- strengthen the capabilities of those
formance puzzle for many new CEOs, teams, to embark on new strategic direc-
according to our research—should create tions, or simply to replace former peers
opportunities for new CEOs to boost they had competed against for the top job,
gender diversity. Too few do so, however, who may have different ideas about the
suggesting that new CEOs, and the way ahead. The management reshuffles
9
Q4 2018
New CEOs and Gender Diversity
Exhibit 1 of 1
Exhibit
New CEOs hired internally and CEOs in industries with less diverse teams are
more likely to make gains in gender diversity.
Gender imbalance
CEO background at start of tenure Selected industries
100
Start of tenure
End of tenure
80
60
40
−3% +3%
20 +6%
0 +4% +8% +6%
0
CEO was CEO was Least diverse Most diverse Industrial and Energy and Financial
external hire internal hire (<15% female) (≥15% female) manufacturing materials institutions
in fact, companies with new CEOs where that women are well-represented in
women made up 15 percent or more leadership roles in companies when they
of the management team actually saw a account for only one in ten executives.
reduction in the proportion of women
in senior roles during reshuffles. The insider’s edge
We take this finding to mean that more Finally, as the exhibit shows, our research
diverse companies tend to become reveals that CEOs promoted from within
complacent over time: the arrival of a companies increase their gender diversity
new CEO is more likely to result in stag- to a much greater extent, on average,
nation or decline than to help the than those hired externally. The difference
organization capitalize on its momentum is stark: internal CEOs raised female
or positive starting position. The evidence representation on management teams by
suggests that once companies reach nearly six percentage points more than
a minimum standard of diversity, the per- external CEOs, who kept gender ratios
ceptions of their leaders—and, as a stable, on average. Again, this is also
result, their priorities—change. This con- the case when looking only at the female
clusion is consistent with the finding CEOs in our data set.
that nearly 50 percent of men believe
To understand how new CEOs reshape their top teams, we used our CEO-transitions database
to track the moments when companies change CEOs; the strategic moves CEOs make,
including management reshuffles; and these CEOs’ sector exposure and history before becoming
chief executives. We combined this information with data from BoardEx to measure the gender
change in the composition of the senior-management teams of these CEOs, from the start to the
end of their tenures. (BoardEx defines senior managers as C-suite officers and divisional and
regional heads.) These new data were complemented by insights from McKinsey’s ongoing Women
in the Workplace research, which explores, in more detail, the corporate pipeline, the support
women receive from their managers, the opportunities women believe they have, and the promotion
and attrition experienced by women relative to men.
This finding offers an interesting counter- board. Of course, both inside and
point to some conclusions of our earlier outside CEO hires are also susceptible
research on transitions more broadly. In to—and must guard against—their
that work, we found that CEOs hired own unconscious biases.
from outside companies were typically
bolder in the number of strategic moves Tough questions
they made early in the game. As a result,
they outperformed other CEOs over Even if CEOs do make progress on gender
their tenures, on average. balance early in their tenures, when they
have a mandate to undertake significant
The apparent divergence between bold management reshuffles, the job isn’t
strategic moves, on the one hand, finished. New CEOs who aspire to create
and a lack of corresponding boldness an inclusive culture that drives significant
in addressing gender issues, on the progress on gender diversity must ask
other, may result at least partly from the and answer several difficult questions:
difficulties some leaders face in over-
coming unconscious bias among other • How do I communicate the economic
members of the top-management and strategic imperative of creating a
team. CEOs promoted from inside tend diverse top team and make this a shared
to know where the talent is, and that goal throughout the organization?
helps them mitigate the impact of biases
among other senior executives. External • W hat specific measures to improve
appointees are less likely to have the gender diversity are appropriate for
same richness of information and may my organization, and how will I ensure
therefore find themselves defaulting that they take effect lower down
to male-skewing conventional picks the ladder?
recommended by other leaders or the
11
3 For
• How do I make sure that women a perspective on why CEOs should make bold
strategic moves early in their tenures, see Michael
are moving into roles with profit-and- Birshan, Thomas Meakin, and Kurt Strovink, “How new
loss responsibility, as well as roles CEOs can boost their odds of success,” McKinsey
Quarterly, May 2016, McKinsey.com.
overseeing support functions, to prepare 4 Fora deeper assessment of gender-diversity initiatives
them for broader executive roles? and the importance of addressing intersectional issues
with race, see Women in the Workplace 2017, LeanIn.Org
and McKinsey, 2017, McKinsey.com.
• How can I accelerate the pipeline of
female talent while ensuring that
Michael Birshan is a senior partner in McKinsey’s
fast-tracked women are supported London office, where Thomas Meakin is a
and helped to succeed? partner; Carolyn Dewar and Kurt Strovink are
senior partners in the San Francisco and New
York offices, respectively.
Success in this context is perhaps best
measured by the legacy that CEOs create The authors wish to thank Denis O’Connor and
for their successors: Will those who Markian Mysko von Schultze for their contributions
to this article, as well as Lareina Yee and Vivian
follow them be starting afresh from a disap-
Hunt for their expertise as leaders of McKinsey’s
pointing position, or maintaining momen- overall research on diversity.
tum on the back of real progress?
Copyright © 2018 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
We have long observed that while safety Companies in the top quartile in organi-
standards in the workplace generally zational health, we discovered, have
improve across industries over time, indi- six times fewer safety incidents than
vidual organizations improve at different those in the bottom quartile, which
speeds. Many companies, moreover, strug- have almost three times as many incidents
gle to improve their safety performance leading to lost work time as companies
beyond a certain level. in the top quartile.
A high level of safety for all employees is Successful actions to improve safety
important in itself, of course, and when predictably include “harder” health-related
companies fall short they expose them- practices, such as habit-reinforcing
selves to greater liability, reputational incentive systems. But companies that
risk, and the danger of burdensome regu- have achieved unusually high safety
lation. What distinguishes companies standards also tend to focus on “softer”
that do well in safety from those that don’t? practices, such as encouraging employees
to “own” safety problems and to take
It may come as little surprise to learn that leadership in the search for solutions.
companies with superior organizational They also embed strong values among
health—those that align most successfully their employees.
around a clear strategy, execute it well,
and renew themselves over time—also tend Health and safety
to have the best safety records. But
recently, when we looked more closely McKinsey’s Organizational Health Index
at this relationship for companies with (OHI), our unique database tracking
similar risk profiles such as those in the thousands of companies across sectors
global energy and materials (GEM) sector, and regions, provides ample evidence
what struck us was not only the extent that organizational health improves financial
of the connection but also the interesting and operating results.1 We measure it
mix of management practices most by aggregating the views of employees
correlated with safety performance. and managers about nine key organizational
13
dimensions that have proved critical to term widely used by safety practitioners
health (“what employees see”), as well to describe a high state of safety maturity,
as 37 management practices that in which employees look out for one
promote those outcomes (“what leaders another from genuine concern. Yet it is
and managers do”). sometimes unclear how companies should
create such a culture. Our analyses of
To test the link between organizational the management practices associated
health and safety, we drew upon two widely with good safety outcomes are there-
accepted measures of safety: the total fore instructive.
recordable incident rate and the lost-time
incident rate.2 The US Occupational With the help of statistical techniques,
Safety and Health Administration and we have developed a short list of critical
writers of environmental, social, and management practices correlated
governance reports use these metrics to most strongly with safety. These can be
compare industries and groups. grouped into three broad themes.
McKinsey has both safety and OHI data— Financial and nonfinancial incentives
responses from almost 100,000 managers We found that consequence management
and employees—for 52 companies in (creating accountability by linking rewards
our database. When we analyzed them, and consequences to the performance of
we found a strong relationship between individuals and teams) is a critical manage-
organizational health and safety (exhibit). ment practice associated with safety. So
Companies with good safety records far, so predictable. Interestingly, however,
outperform their counterparts on all nine two practices—providing both financial
key organizational outcomes that con- incentives and nonfinancial rewards and
tribute to organizational health. In addition, recognition—are also important. Many
they are eight points above the sector companies focus a lot of effort on conse-
benchmark in outcomes related to inno- quence management to, for example, try
vation and learning. We also tested to mitigate unsafe employee behavior.
the relationship in a single global mining But our findings suggest that it is equally
company and discovered that better important to identify, reward, and explicitly
organizational health was associated with recognize the sort of behavior that
safety improvements at the site level. encourages safety, not least because it
forces managers to think through what
Health and safe management kind of behavior is required.
practices
Employee ownership of solutions
Leaders of organizations where safety is and learning
important, such as those in the GEM Another important group of management
sector, all recognize the importance of practices emerging from our data
corporate cultures. They might strive encourages employees to take ownership
to create a culture of interdependence—a of innovation and learning.3 Bottom-
Exhibit
Top-quartile companies on organizational health perform better on health and
safety metrics.
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
0
Bottom quartile Middle quartiles Top quartile
1 Global energy and materials sector example based on responses from almost 100,000 managers and employees in
52 companies. LTIR and TRIR figures were standardized per 100 full-time-equivalent employees, with the assumption that
employees work 40 hours a week and 50 weeks a year.
Source: McKinsey Organizational Health Index
15
Leading with values actions such as providing supportive
Cultivating meaning—in other words, leadership and encouraging employee
ensuring that employees know how their ownership. They should remember,
work fits into the bigger picture—also moreover, that bolstering innovation and
emerged as a critical management practice creativity isn’t necessarily at odds
for safety. So did supportive leadership, with robust safety procedures and high
exemplified by leaders who build positive safety standards.
environments marked by harmonious
teams and care for the welfare of employees. 1 See Chris Gagnon, Elizabeth John, and Rob Theunissen,
succeed only when employees see their employees, assume that employees work 40 hours a week
and 50 weeks a year.
leaders as authentic. When actions 3 These practices are central to a continuous-improvement
follow words, employees take note. By performance culture, one of four winning combinations
of practices (which we call “recipes”) that we identified
promoting safety as a value—as some- through the OHI.
thing that follows you home—leaders create
a true sense of commitment and increase Randy Lim is an analyst in McKinsey’s New York
office, Jean-Benoît Grégoire Rousseau is a
their chances of fostering conviction partner in the Montréal office, and Brooke Weddle
among employees. Supportive leaders is a partner in the Washington, DC, office.
also help to create the learning culture
The authors wish to thank Hortense de la Boutetière
essential for improving safety. Ultimately,
and Pawel Poplawski for their contributions to
organizations focused on safety want this article.
employees to speak up and share their
Copyright © 2018 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
concerns with one another. That can’t
happen without support from the top.
17
Q4 2018
Connected Car
Exhibit 1 of 1
Exhibit
The McKinsey Connected Car Customer Experience (C³X) framework describes
five levels of user experience in connected cars, ranging from the most basic to
the highly complex.
4
passenger experience
Strengthening links to
3 System is
Increasing vehicle
intelligent
and predictive
intelligence
System is
1 reactive
No connectivity
Whereas autonomy and its levels can be much value they will be able to generate
defined as the extent to which drivers through a connected vehicle across
control how automobiles move (from full these levels.
driver control to no human intervention at
all), connectivity should be defined based Breaking down vehicle connectivity
on what car riders experience. The
distinction is not academic. Connectivity, Under the C3X framework, general
in large part, will be key to using car data hardware connectivity (level one) means
to generate revenue, optimize costs, and that the vehicle allows for only basic
improve safety. Artificial intelligence (AI) monitoring of its use and technical status,
will be used to anticipate and respond to and individual connectivity (level two)
vehicle occupants’ needs and commands, means that the vehicle can use a driver’s
leveraging in-vehicle sensors and data personal profile to access services on
on consumer preferences from multiple external digital platforms such as Android
digital domains, including social media, Auto and Apple CarPlay. The data
connected home, and connected office. monetization for these levels is already
core to how multiple businesses make
The more seamless a rider’s experience money, particularly (but not exclusively)
becomes, the more opportunities there digital natives. Automakers too are
will be to affect revenue, cost, and safety. starting to monetize connectivity; consumers
As technology in the connected-car are coming to demand and pay for
ecosystem becomes more sophisticated, basic connectivity features such as in-
consumer expectations will evolve in vehicle hot spots and usage-driven
parallel, creating a need to deliver higher- maintenance checkups.
value user experiences. The C3X frame-
work makes it easier to quantify value- Moving up the scale, when the user
creation opportunities associated with experience shifts from reactive to intelligent
increased connectivity. Players across and predictive thanks to artificial
the entire ecosystem will be able to intelligence, the value-creation opportunities
understand with greater precision what’s are amped up significantly. At level three,
necessary to take user experience focus expands beyond the driver and
to (quite literally) the next level and how onto all occupants, who are afforded
19
personalized controls, infotainment, meet full level-three capabilities as a
and advertising. Level four provides live standard offering yet, though some models
interaction through various modes have these features in select trims only.
(such as voice and gestures), allowing Our research shows, however, that by
drivers and passengers to have a “dialogue” 2030, nearly half of new vehicles sold
that feels natural with the vehicle and worldwide could be at level three or higher.
that enables them to receive proactive
recommendations on services and A common standard for connected-
functions. At the top of the scale, level car user experience would go a long way
five, the system becomes a “virtual toward enabling that reality. The C3X
chauffeur”—cognitive AI performs highly framework allows disparate players across
complex communication and coordination industries to speak the same language,
tasks, enabling it to anticipate needs brings clarity to complexity, and sets clear
and fulfill complicated, unplanned tasks markers for what comes next: a seamless,
for the riders. connected, and intelligent in-vehicle
experience. Now, consumers and eco-
Connectivity today—and tomorrow system players alike can share a common
understanding of exactly what that means.
About four out of five of vehicles on the
road today are at or below level one of the Michele Bertoncello is a partner in McKinsey’s
C3X framework. This demonstrates Milan office, Asad Husain is an associate partner
in the Toronto office, and Timo Möller is a
significant space for improvements. Many
senior expert in the Cologne office. The authors
vehicles in the premium segment, such are members of the McKinsey Center for
as the Audi Q7, BMW 7 Series, Cadillac Future Mobility.
Escalade, Lexus LX, Mercedes-Benz
The authors wish to thank Saral Chauhan for his
GLE, and Tesla Model X, to name a few, contributions to this article.
already meet the criteria for level two,
delivering a compelling connected in- Copyright © 2018 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
Internet of Things (IoT) technologies have support their IoT strategy, as well as other
evolved rapidly in recent years and factors that may influence it, and sorted
continue to change how we interact with leaders from laggards based on their self-
our surroundings. For companies, IoT reported economic impact from IoT.2
brings new ways to monitor and manage We found that while a number of IoT “habits”
objects in the physical world, while play a role in successes, three are par-
massive new streams of data offer better ticularly relevant for C-level executives who
avenues for decision making (often may be considering heavier investment in
mediated by machines). The steady fall in IoT or searching for reasons their programs
prices of sensors and communications have failed to gain traction.
technologies, combined with a parallel rise
in understanding of how they can be Habit 1: Begin with what you already
applied, have raised the strategic impor- do, make, or sell
tance of IoT. As we have shown elsewhere,
this can produce immense value in There’s no single path to IoT success.
settings ranging from retail and healthcare Some companies focus on connecting
to manufacturing and technology. existing products to make them more
attractive and useful to customers. Others
Despite the promise, we continue to see exploit opportunities to achieve oper-
substantial differences in how well ational improvements that increase efficiency
companies apply IoT in their businesses. and lower costs. Still others push more
Targeting IoT applications correctly boldly, using connectivity to create entirely
and managing them effectively is far from new products or remake business
easy, leaving many companies stuck models (even moving into separate IoT
and unable to move beyond pilots. businesses). Our survey found that
To better understand what differentiates companies that achieved scale in IoT did
successful initiatives from struggling so by pursuing a variety of strategies—
ones, we surveyed IoT executives at and all with at least some degree of
300 companies—those that have moved success. However, when we looked more
beyond experiments and have scaled closely at the gains, we found that the
up IoT use in their businesses.1 We asked most successful companies often played
them about the practices that directly to their strengths—rather than betting
on unfamiliar markets or new products
21
(Exhibit 1). These IoT leaders, the group to farmers. In response, the company
getting the most economic benefit from shifted R&D investments to “IoT-enabled”
IoT, were nearly three times more likely products and services in existing lines of
to add IoT connectivity to existing products business. Their new system used farm-
they sell than the laggards were. Conversely, based sensors to read soil conditions
laggards—those in the bottom quintile continuously, relaying the information to
of economic returns—were significantly a cloud-based analytics platform that
more likely to focus on developing new farmers could use to monitor variations
IoT products or services. on their mobile devices. Other sensors
tracked irrigation levels and sent alerts
Playing to market strengths was the course whenever moisture readings hit predefined
chosen by strategists at an agricultural- levels demanding attention. With these
equipment manufacturer, after they real-time insights, farmers were able
observed digital players from outside to optimize their water and fertilizer use.
Q4 2018
the
IoT industry
leaders sizing up opportunities That, in turn, increased yields over the
to offer sophisticated
Exhibit 1 of 2 analytics services growing season while substantially
Exhibit 1
There are several strategies to achieve scale in IoT, but the most successful
companies often play to their strengths rather than bet on the new or unfamiliar.
Laggards Leaders
My organization’s single
highest-priority IoT effort
26 35%
16 Develop new IoT products and
17
services to offer to customers
23
Add connectivity and IoT capabilities 188%
24
to the company’s existing products
8
1 300 executives across 11 industries in Canada, China, Germany, and the United States.
23
Q4 2018
IoT leaders
Exhibit 2 of 2
Exhibit 2
Implementing a greater number of IoT use cases correlates with financial
success, with the effect leveling off at around 30.
Financial-impact score¹
(higher = better)
50
r² = 0.55
40
30
20
10
0 10 20 30 40 50
1 Financial-impact score: a metric synthesized from several cost, revenue, and/or margin-impact metrics, as measured on a
per-use-case basis.
create the conditions for value creation. company had connected three rolling
IoT has often been portrayed primarily mills with sensors in an IoT deployment.
as a technical-implementation challenge, The goal was to capture and analyze
with the drive for adoption spearheaded previously unused data from the machines.
by specialists in the CIO function. Yet Executives were pleased that they were
time and again we see that deriving real able to get the system up and running
business gains from IoT efforts requires in just three weeks, to help solve nagging
changes to a business process—the hard capacity constraints at the facility.
job of modifying the way a company does However, there was a problem: the insights
things. Connecting production equipment generated by the system weren’t being
to the internet, for example, will allow a used by the frontline employees.
company to manage usage more effectively
and predict when maintenance is needed. The management team responded by
However, if the surrounding business modifying a range of plant-floor processes.
processes aren’t modified and optimized, For starters, they simplified the complex
then value won’t be maximized. analytics that the system was churning out,
synthesizing the output into one number
Those second-order challenges were that measured operator wait time. This
manifest at one metals manufacturer. The change enabled line operators to recognize
25
CHOOSING THE RIGHT PATH TO GROWTH
To boost organic growth, most companies need a diverse set of initiatives—
and how you sequence them matters.
Innovation and growth are often lumped build business value with new products
together as management concepts, for or through business-model innovation.
good reason: it’s self-evident that innovation “Performers” grow by steadily optimizing
drives growth, and conspicuous fast commercial functions and operations.
growers often benefit from high-profile Our latest findings suggest that focusing
innovations. Our research, however, on two of these growth levers simul-
suggests growth-minded companies taneously will spur growth more effectively
stand to benefit by disaggregating the than emphasizing one.2
two concepts. There are, in fact, multiple
paths to growth, and the most common In fact, we found that more than three-
growth characteristics among above- quarters of companies that mastered
average growers often aren’t related to two or more levers grew faster than their
innovation. Significant as well, companies industry (Exhibit 1). This makes intuitive
aspiring to the highest levels of growth sense; combining two approaches allows
need to sequence their initiatives carefully. for synergies that can multiply impact.
Put differently: you probably can’t do Companies with strong reallocation
everything at once. practices (investors), for example, can
provide managers with the needed
How many levers? additional resources to optimize higher-
potential assets (performers). Too often,
In earlier research, we explored three this sort of helpful one-two punch is
broad profiles that describe how companies the exception: companies instead tend
achieve organic growth.1 “Investors” to emphasize what worked in the past,
tap new sources of funding or reallocate and thus to rely too heavily on a single
existing funds to capture new growth lens—which leaves potential growth on
for their goods and services. “Creators” the table.
Exhibit 1
Few organizations follow more … yet those that do are more likely
than one approach to growth … to beat their industry’s average.
52 0 45
21 1 62
15 2 77
12 3 77
What about three levers? In some What’s also true, however, is that it’s hard
sense, it’s the gold standard; a healthy to get innovation right: nearly half of all
proportion of top-growth-quartile the companies surveyed were weakest
companies were investors, performers, in creative practices, while fewer than
and creators.3 That said, executing one in five said innovation was an area
on every front simultaneously is more of greatest strength. In addition, our
than many companies can handle. research suggests that the pursuit of
That’s particularly the case for large innovation is not the surest way to move
organizations, where complexity tends to into the top-growth tiers. Rather, the
multiply as growth initiatives proliferate.4 most prevalent practices among above-
average growers reflected mastery
The power and limitations of of core investor and performer levers
innovation-led growth (Exhibit 3). Three of the top five practices
characterizing upper-tier growers
Creative companies are more heavily were related to investing: aligning on
represented among the fastest growers. priority markets, engaging in portfolio
And the ability to innovate consistently management informed by prospective
appears to separate the good growers returns, and overseeing resources top
in the second quartile from exceptional down. Two more were tied to performing:
ones in the top quartile. We found that developing high-value customer
exceptional growers were 56 percent development across business units and
more likely to have mastered creative measuring the voice of customers. The
practices (that is, reached the 70 percent prevalence among high performers
successful adoption level) than the of strengths related to smart resource
second-quartile firms (Exhibit 2). allocation and strong commercial
27
performance suggests that they are more the data are clear that a steady pace
than mere table stakes for growth and of change is vital: we found a positive
that executives should not take them for correlation between the number of growth
granted, even if they seem rudimentary. best practices adopted by a company
and the company’s growth-performance
Sequencing the growth journey quartile (Exhibit 4). Across all companies
surveyed, we found that employing two
Moving your growth journey forward in additional practices, on average, correlated
a structured way will sidestep a common with an organic-growth edge ranging
trap that we have observed: pushing from one to three percentage points.
growth and product initiatives almost Companies that regularly fine-tune and
haphazardly in hopes of jump-starting add to their capabilities appear to improve
a strategy. Instead, companies need a their odds of generating steady per-
more deliberate, stepwise approach to formance gains, providing additional
building
Q4 2018growth initiatives and capabilities. resources that leaders can reallocate,
While there
Growth is no iron law of sequencing,
levers as needed, to further their growth agenda.
Exhibit 2 of 4
Exhibit 2
Innovative companies that have mastered creative capabilities are more heavily
represented among the fastest growers.
Companies’ likelihood to have mastered a lens compared with those in a lower quartile, %
Performer
Investor
Creator
31 21 56
Exhibit 3
Third-quartile companies emphasized performance, while those in the second
quartile worked equally on performance and investment.
Companies’ likelihood to have mastered a lens compared with those in a lower quartile, %
Performer
Investor
Creator
87 48 44 54 48 18
Getting this right, in our experience, goes hold its own against rivals. Looking forward,
hand in hand with rigorous initiative the senior team is studying more
and performance management, which ambitious initiatives to accelerate growth,
includes rallying organizational support surpass competitors, and increase
for growth priorities; supporting market share. One avenue, for example,
them with capability building, incentives, would boost the use of advanced data
and cultural change; and looking for analytics, to gather deeper insights
opportunities to exploit synergies among on customer-procurement practices
new business initiatives. That’s the and emerging product preferences.
path a global manufacturer is following as Those data and greater mobilization
it strives to shift its growth performance across functions would help managers
in critical markets from lagging to leading. uncover and share insights about
The company has started by upgrading untapped growth opportunities. Margin
the effectiveness of its transactional pricing, improvements from the initial steps
marketing tactics, and core sales force— would provide the means, confidence,
priorities that, leaders believe, will help it and capabilities for more innovative
29
Q4 2018
Growth levers
Exhibit 4 of 4
Exhibit 4
Higher rates of best-practice adoption are correlated with higher growth-
performance quartiles.
1.9x
Performer capabilities
(8 practices)
1.9x
Investor capabilities
(7 practices)
31
Industry Dynamics
Exhibit
In pursuit of digital transformation, banks are partnering with fintechs rather
than considering them as threats.
Creating a business-accelerator
program 56
Creating a venture-capital or
private-equity fund 44
1
For example, with a telecom or e-commerce company offering opportunities for customer-relationship marketing or cross-selling.
banks’ own arsenals. Banks also need to 1 The actual number of partnerships could be higher;
improve their execution game and speed the database includes only those that have been
up decisions to avoid having fintechs turn publicly announced.
33
Industry Dynamics
Exhibit
Contractors and farmers find new technologies that are easily integrated into
existing operations more attractive than those that require an entire redesign.
Contractors
Conversion¹
50
Digital aftermarket sales3
Predictive maintenance
40
and remote monitoring
Project-management software
30
Fully electric equipment Operator-guidance
Usage-based contracts system
20 Full automation
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Attractiveness²
Farmers
Conversion¹
50 50
GPS
autosteering
40 40
Full automation
10 10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Attractiveness²
35
Industry Dynamics
Digital marketing and social media have This has not gone unnoticed: established
disrupted the $250 billion global beauty players are stepping up their digital
industry more severely than most other game, often with excellent results. One
consumer-goods sectors. “Born digital” approach is to buy into this new
brands, such as eyebrow specialist expertise: in 2016, traditional companies
Anastasia Beverly Hills and makeup made 52 acquisitions, many of them
producer NYX, have used social-media upstarts. Estée Lauder, for example,
tools to capture the attention of engaged, bought BECCA Cosmetics (makeup
beauty-conscious customers. This foundations), Too Faced (cosmetics),
generation of upstarts has already taken and a minority stake in Deciem (skin
10 percent of the color-cosmetics care). Another approach is imitation.
market and is growing four times as fast The big beauty companies are making
as legacy players (exhibit). And the significant investments in digital media
growth of born-digital challenger brands and influencer marketing: L’Oréal alone
could accelerate, with venture capital has hired 1,600 digital experts. A third
pouring into the sector. is incubation, in the form of corporate
venture-capital funds, such as LVMH’s
Born-digital brands recognize that younger Kendo, which has recently been
consumers engage with products successful with Rihanna’s Fenty Beauty.
differently than older consumers do. Their
use of channels, such as online videos The established beauty companies have
(“vlogs”) and influencer marketing through shown that they can and must adapt
social media to build a following, has to defend their position. It is a lesson that
been critical to their success. Charlotte other consumer-goods companies
Tilbury, for example, has ten times as would do well to heed.
many YouTube subscribers—many of
them looking for tips on applying Sara Hudson is an associate partner in McKinsey’s
London office, where Jessica Moulton is a
makeup—as the average legacy brand. senior partner; Aimee Kim is a senior partner in
Through these channels, the born-digital the Seoul office.
brands have created a way of marketing
that is more than transactional. Rather, For more, see “What beauty players can
teach the consumer sector about digital
it’s about creating a relationship with
disruption,” on McKinsey.com.
consumers and making them feel part of
a community centered on the brand.
Exhibit
In the beauty sector, some digital challengers are gaining share and growing
nearly four times faster than legacy companies.
Sales, $ billion
2008 2 11 18
2016 6 16 24
1 Examples by category: Digital challengers = Anastasia, Too Faced, Urban Decay; Legacy prestige = Chanel, Dior, Lancome;
37
38
THE NEW ENTERPRISE DNA
The cornerstones of
39 The business value
58 Digital strategy: The four
78
large-scale technology of design fights you have to win
transformation
Taking digital
53 Building the workforce
73 Building a tech-enabled
90
transformation to the of tomorrow, today ecosystem: An interview
limits at Koç Holding with Ping An’s Jessica Tan
The cornerstones of
large-scale technology
transformation
A clear playbook is emerging for how to integrate and
capitalize on advanced technologies—across an entire company,
and in any industry.
How does your company use advanced technologies to create value? This
has become the defining business challenge of our time. If you ignore it or
get it wrong, then anything from your job to your entire organization could
become vulnerable to rivals who get it right. The new technologies come
with many labels—digital, analytics, automation, the Internet of Things,
industrial internet, Industry 4.0, machine learning, artificial intelligence
(AI), and so on. For incumbent companies, they support the creation of all-new,
digitally enabled business models, while holding out the vital promise of
improving customer experiences and boosting the productivity of legacy oper-
ations. Advanced technologies are essential to modern enterprises, and it’s
fair to say that every large company is working with them to some extent.
In private discussions over the past year, we’ve asked more than 500 CEOs
whether they think technology can improve business growth and productivity
sufficiently to lift profits and shareholder value by 30 to 50 percent; a great
many have said yes. So far, though, that prize has remained elusive for a lot of
companies. Consider, for example, McKinsey research highlighting the
Most senior executives recognize the magnitude of the task before them.
Although incumbents possess advantages such as hard assets, customer
relationships, and valuable brands, those strengths—and the scale that
accompanies them—also vastly increase the complexity of digital transfor-
mation. Some enterprise-wide technology transformations come up short
simply because leaders have a difficult time creating coherent strategies
that stitch together their digital priorities with other major business objectives.2
What’s more, even companies that devise sound strategies are likely to
encounter two formidable obstacles to using advanced technologies at a trans-
formative scale. The first challenge is the sheer number and breadth of
technology solutions required to truly transform an enterprise, often in the
hundreds. The second one might be called the “last-mile” challenge:
redesigning a company’s processes to capture the value of new technologies,
in line with its strategic goals. Both sound technical, but they play out far
from the traditional IT organization and create headaches for the business
leaders who will need to guide their people toward new patterns of
thinking and operating.
1
See “How digital reinventors are pulling away from the pack,” October 2017, McKinsey.com.
2
or more on this problem, see Jacques Bughin, Tanguy Catlin, Martin Hirt, and Paul Willmott, “Why digital
F
strategies fail,” McKinsey Quarterly, January 2018, McKinsey.com.
DISTRIBUTED OPPORTUNITIES
The first scaling challenge is rooted in the sheer number of solutions that
a company typically needs to carry out its digital strategy successfully.
Consider, for example, a global mining company seeking dramatic productivity
improvement through technology. Boosting the productivity of a mine
would typically involve deploying solutions in a half-dozen broad domains
such as “better ore-body management through advanced analytics” or
“predictive maintenance to reduce maintenance costs and increase uptime.”
Each domain, in turn, might contain dozens of more specific opportunities.
Predictive maintenance, for instance, can be applied to drills, shovels,
and heavy-hauling trucks. For hauling trucks, specific solutions might be
needed to deal with operating conditions, drivers’ behind-the-wheel
behavior, and the reliability of truck components and systems. All told, we
estimate that it takes more than 100 technology solutions to maximize
the productivity of a mining operation (Exhibit 1). In industries as diverse
as banking, electric power, and retail, we have found that the benefits of
technology are distributed among a similarly large number of opportunities.
Across the business landscape of AI alone, McKinsey has inventoried more
than 400 meaningful use cases.
While some solutions deliver more bottom-line impact than others, none
will typically be a “silver bullet” that makes a genuinely transformative
impact on its own. And since many technology innovations can be replicated
by rivals within a year or two, the advantages they confer seldom last for
long. Enduring advantages are more likely to accrue to companies that can
sustain a high rate of innovation, consistently introducing new solutions
and improving them with proprietary data.
Exhibit 1
Deploying technology solutions in half a dozen or more broad domains can
yield a significant gain in annual EBIT: potentially $1 billion or more for a global
mining company.
Example: A global mining company explores opportunities in the domain of predictive maintenance
Tech-enabled transformation
In the domain of predictive maintenance, for example,
truck suspension is just one area among many to explore
But the mining company won’t spend any less on labor and parts or keep
its trucks in service longer, unless it changes the work routines of many
maintenance-related experts. The reliability engineer minimizes excess
effort by learning to triage predicted maintenance events. To prevent the
Exhibit 2
A mining company created a road map that prioritized specific technology
solutions to reach the targeted reduction in hauling costs.
$30 per
metric ton
Driving
behavior Engine $20 per
predictive metric ton
Suspension
maintenance
predictive
maintenance Maintenance
kits
Prioritized solutions
Brakes Parts
Augmented predictive inventory Maintenance
reality maintenance management automation
Unit leaders grouped the 32 solutions into three waves to roll out over two
years, starting with low-cost options. In inbound supply and logistics, for
example, the first wave of solutions focused on using robots and AI to auto-
mate in-plant logistics or the movement of materials and components within
factories. The second wave called for automating warehouses in a similar
fashion, and the third wave anticipated the use of emerging technologies, such
as augmented reality, that would improve the accuracy and efficiency of
manual labor. Each unit prepared its road map independently, making con-
nections with other units where necessary. This way, each unit could focus
on building and implementing the solutions it needed to transform its area
of operations.
Scotiabank’s factory, like other successful ones we’ve seen, exhibits several
distinguishing features. Depending on the size of the company, a technology
factory typically employs between 50 and 1,000 technology specialists:
designers, software developers, data scientists, data engineers, platform
architects, AI experts, automation engineers, analytics translators, product
owners, and digital marketers, among others. The composition, scale, and
skill set of the factory’s workforce reflect the portfolio of solutions and the
development pace specified in business units’ technology road maps. With
To fill out a factory’s roster, companies usually have to search far and wide.
In our experience, it’s not unusual for half of a factory’s staff, particularly in
technical domains, to be recruited externally, which is partly why it can
take 12 to 18 months to set up a well-functioning factory. A staffing campaign
of this scale will falter if it is not directed by a leader with a proven ability
to recruit and retain digital talent. At Scotiabank’s factory, external hires
make up about 60 percent of the workforce, and the remainder hail from
the bank’s IT department and other business units. Scotiabank also provided
training to help the factory’s workforce establish a common working style
and set of methods. Internally hired business and technology experts, for
example, received coaching in agile development if they weren’t already
familiar with it.
By contrast, one of the world’s leading steel plants, the Tata Steel IJmuiden
plant, in the Netherlands, offered on-the-job technology training with a “field
and forum” approach. The company provided some 200 operations managers
and engineers with enough training in advanced analytics that they could serve
as analytics “translators,” capable of spotting potential new opportunities to
use sophisticated techniques and then deploying them or acting as business
champions. Tata achieved this by cycling cohorts of managers through class-
room training forums while having them perform hands-on projects in the
field. The training curriculum left managers with a shared vocabulary and
understanding of concepts such as agile, technology stacks, data governance,
and data management. This common understanding of technology enables
3
ach technology factory will have particular staffing needs. For example, a steel company seeking to maximize
E
yields might need a main contingent of data scientists and analytics translators who can effectively bridge the
worlds of steel operations and analytics.
4
See “The digital reinvention of an Asian bank,” McKinsey Quarterly, March 2017, McKinsey.com.
5
here are other aspects of a modern technology environment not addressed here such as bandwidth,
T
computing power, connectivity, real-time processing, storage, and virtualization.
It doesn’t have to be this way. The value of data is directly related to the
technology solutions that the data enable. Data strategies therefore should
start with the technology road map described earlier and, for each tech
solution, articulate the data needed. If you want to automate insurance under-
writing by relying solely on the customer’s name (rather than using medical
tests and customer form filling), you need a vast array of external data—and
a permissive regulator. If you seek instead to automate claims manage-
ment, your data requirements may be very different. Prioritizing the data
domains that support the initial set of solutions on the technology road
map is a critical first step.
Next, the prioritized data domains should guide the data ingestion efforts, be
it from legacy systems or external data sources. Value in data is often
unlocked by linking data from very diverse sources. For example, Aston
Martin substantially reduced the development time of new luxury cars
by linking data from around 30 different sources, ranging from team com-
position and product drawings to parts features. In parallel, the chief data
officer should be developing the appropriate data-management processes,
such as establishing conventions (a “master data model”) for defining data
down to the syntax of customer names and assigning, to explicit data
owners, responsibility for maintaining high-quality data. Data management
has become an essential capability to any successful technology transformation.
Many leading players regard their data strategies and models as a long-term,
multiperiod chess game. Ping An, a leading Chinese financial institution,
started with data in banking and insurance and over time developed a customer-
data ecosystem across nine industries ranging from automotive to healthcare.
Time and again, though, we have seen companies succumb to the last-mile
challenge, deploying new technologies in one area of the business but failing
As Çakıroglu and HR director Özgür Burak Akkol explain in this interview with
McKinsey’s Peter Gumbel and Bengi Korkmaz, part of the answer was to
use the extreme conditions found in nature to push company leaders to see
their strengths and grow their capacity to lead in both familiar and unfamiliar
environments—a tall order for Koç’s traditionally conservative culture.
The Quarterly: If all your businesses were performing well, why was a digital
transformation necessary?
Levent Çakıroglu: Koç has been a leader in Turkey for decades and has
always adapted to change. But now, everything is changing faster than ever
The Quarterly: How did you decide where to place your resources?
To learn more about the company’s transformation journey, see a series of short
videos featuring Koç CEO Levent Çakıroglu and HR director Özgür Burak Akkol
in the online version of this article, on McKinsey.com.
Levent Çakıroglu is the CEO of Koç Özgür Burak Akkol has been the HR
Holding. Prior to joining the company, in director for Koç Holding since 2014.
1998, Levent served in various positions Özgür joined the company in 2003 as
in Turkey’s Ministry of Finance, and from an HR assistant specialist.
1997 to 1998 was a part-time instructor
at Bilkent University.
The Quarterly: What was the key to getting the transformation off to a
strong start?
Levent Çakıroglu: We knew that to build a new culture we needed the full
support of the CEOs of our individual [subsidiary] businesses right from the
beginning. We needed them to assume ownership of the transformation,
and they have, very strongly. Remember: these are people who were delivering
double-digit growth annually. Our success could have been the biggest
barrier to change, but instead the CEOs have become the true drivers of this
transformation. Their belief in our underlying objectives was crucial.
The Quarterly: How did you approach the challenge of changing behaviors
across such a disparate group of leaders?
Levent Çakıroglu: We knew that success would involve a lot more than just
gaining new technological or digital skills. The new business challenges
we face have new and different dynamics, and they impact people in many
different ways. We wanted our leaders to start by getting to know them-
selves. Only if we built a digital leadership program that enabled them to
better know and understand themselves—and understand their purpose—
could they develop the skills they needed.
This is ultimately how we determined that the focus of our leadership program
would be the top 200 leaders across Koç Holding.
The Quarterly: How did this thinking influence the design of the
leadership program?
Özgür Burak Akkol: To convey the need for change, we felt the program
needed to get as far away from “expected” as possible, to break away
from what the leaders had experienced before. The food, the location, the
language, the rules, the KPIs [key performance indicators], the follow-
ups—everything needed to be different than what people expected.
We designed the program to happen in three separate stages that take place
over the course of several months. The first stage focused on helping
the leaders build self-awareness, so they could see what it means to be an
adaptive leader. The next stage looked at applying what the leaders had
learned to digital change—working on skills like agile thinking, design thinking,
managing big data, and so on. Finally, we wanted to get the leaders to
directly adapt to uncertainty in a new way—so we had the program culminate
in five days of wilderness experience in the Alps and in Norway. This
phase was meant to help the leaders test their boundaries, work together as a
team, and overcome challenges, as well as to inspire them to lead.
Levent Çakıroglu: One leader said that while they were in the mountains,
she wondered if the course was designed to develop leaders—or to get rid
of them! [Laughs.] Of course, it was a joke. But it speaks to how we wanted
the participants to understand their physical and mental capacity under
difficult circumstances. Sometimes, we need such extreme experiences to
understand our real potential.
The Quarterly: By your own reckoning, you are two years into your digital
transformation, and you are beginning to see results across the company. What
would you say are the most important takeaways for the company thus far?
Levent Çakıroglu: The heart of our strategy has always been our colleagues,
our people. The real success factor behind Koç Holding will always be our
people. Some business people think of transformation in terms of processes
and new technologies. But I don’t look at it that way. A digital transformation
is the smartest way to invest in our people. If we do that, if we value them in
the right way, they will be the drivers of success no matter what kind of
change we encounter.
Levent Çakıroglu is the CEO of Koç Holding, where Özgür Burak Akkol is the HR director.
This interview was conducted by Peter Gumbel, editorial director of the McKinsey Global Institute,
who is based in McKinsey’s Paris office, and Bengi Korkmaz, a partner in the Istanbul office.
We all know examples of bad product and service design. The USB plug
(always lucky on the third try). The experience of rushing to make your
connecting flight at many airports. The exhaust port on the Death Star in
Star Wars.
We also all know iconic designs, such as the Swiss Army Knife, the humble
Google home page, or the Disneyland visitor experience. All of these
are constant reminders of the way strong design can be at the heart of both
disruptive and sustained commercial success in physical, service, and
digital settings.
We tracked the design practices of 300 publicly listed companies over a five-
year period in multiple countries and industries. Their senior business and
design leaders were interviewed or surveyed. Our team collected more than
two million pieces of financial data and recorded more than 100,000 design
actions.1 Advanced regression analysis uncovered the 12 actions showing
the greatest correlation with improved financial performance and clustered
these actions into four broad themes.
The four themes of good design described below form the basis of the
McKinsey Design Index (MDI), which rates companies by how strong they
are at design and—for the first time—how that links up with the financial
performance of each company (Exhibit 1).
1. We found a strong correlation between high MDI scores and superior
business performance. Top-quartile MDI scorers increased their
revenues and total returns to shareholders (TRS) substantially faster
than their industry counterparts did over a five-year period—
32 percentage points higher revenue growth and 56 percentage points
higher TRS growth for the period as a whole.
2. The results held true in all three of the industries we looked at: medical
technology, consumer goods, and retail banking. This suggests that
good design matters whether your company focuses on physical goods,
digital products, services, or some combination of these.
3. TRS and revenue differences between the fourth, third, and second
quartiles were marginal. In other words, the market disproportionately
rewarded companies that truly stood out from the crowd (Exhibit 2).
AN ELUSIVE PRIZE
In short, the potential for design-driven growth is enormous in both product-
and service-based sectors (Exhibit 3). The good news is that there are more
1
n example of a design action would be putting someone on the executive board with a responsibility for
A
design, user experience, or both. Another would be tying management bonuses to design quality or customer-
satisfaction metrics.
Exhibit 1
Companies with top-quartile McKinsey Design Index scores outperformed
industry-benchmark growth by as much as two to one.
Revenues
180
160 10%
140
3−6%
120
100
300
250 21%
200 12−16%
150
100
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 The envelope was set by the minimums and maximums of three independent data sets: MDI 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quartiles; the
Exhibit 2
Higher McKinsey Design Index scores correlated with higher revenue growth
and, for the top quartile, higher returns to shareholders.
Revenue, % TRS,¹ %
20.6
10.0
6.3
4.0 4.6
Exhibit 3
The financial outperformance of top-quartile companies holds true across the
three industries studied.
McKinsey Design Index: difference between top quartile vs peers, 2013−18, percentage points
108
56
41 42
32
25 27
18
MO
G RE
L IN TH
EE AN
N AF AD
HA EP
R ET AR
TM
MO EN
T
MO T
RE UC
TH R OD
AN AP
AP AN
HA E TH
SE OR
M
% of respondents
Analytical
Embed design in the C-suite 10
leadership
Employ design metrics 17
Note: The 2% of leaders who provided answers outside the MDI four themes are not shown.
Source: McKinsey Value of Design survey of 300 global companies, July 2018
It’s not enough, of course, to have fine words stapled to the C-suite walls.
Companies that performed best in this area of our survey maintain a baseline
level of customer understanding among all executives. These companies
also have a leadership-level curiosity about what users need, as opposed to
what they say they want. One top team we know invites customers to its
regular monthly meeting solely to discuss the merits of its products and services.
The CEO of one of the world’s largest banks spends a day a month with
the bank’s clients and encourages all members of the C-suite to do the same.
Through personal exposure or constant engagement with researchers,
executives can act as role models for their businesses and learn firsthand
what most frustrates and excites customers.
Less than 5 percent of those we surveyed reported that their leaders could
make objective design decisions (for example, to develop new products
or enter new sectors). In an age of ubiquitous online tools and data-driven
customer feedback, it seems surprising that design still isn’t measured
with the same rigor as time or costs. Companies can now build design metrics
(such as satisfaction ratings and usability assessments) into product
specifications, just as they include requirements for grades of materials or
target times to market.
We are not suggesting that this stereotype is still common—or that other
functions are necessarily to blame—but it can be surprisingly resilient. One
company we know, for example, unveiled a new flagship design studio to
much jubilation from the design community. Before long, all the designers
had moved their desks inside the studio, and had deactivated door access
for the marketing, engineering, and quality teams. These moves drastically
reduced the level of cooperative work and undermined the performance of
the business as a whole.
Crucially, though, retaining great design talent requires more than promising
a big bonus or a career path as a top-flight manager. Carrots such as these
are not enough to retain top design talent if not accompanied by the freedom
to work on projects that stir their passion, time to speak at conferences
attended by their peers, and opportunities to stay connected to the broader
design community. Talented designers at a CPG company well-respected
for its design credentials started leaving because of the amount of time they
had to spend styling slideshow packs for the marketing team. Conversely,
Spotify’s appeal to top designers is often attributed to its autonomy-with-
connectivity culture and to a working environment characterized by
diversity, fun, and speed to market.
They will only be able to do so, though, if they have the right tools, capabilities,
and infrastructure. That calls for the sort of design software, communication
apps, deep data analytics, and prototyping technologies that drive productivity
and accelerate design iterations. All of this requires time and investment.
We found a strong correlation between successful companies and companies
that resisted the temptation to cut spending on research, prototyping, or
concept generation at the first sign of trouble. Formal design allocations should
be agreed to in partnership with design leaders instead of appearing (as
they often do) as line items in the marketing or engineering budgets.
Exhibit 4
Initial survey results reveal a wide range of design performance.
95
90
85
80
75 Average
score
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
In the past six months, the company’s market share has jumped 40 percent,
in part as investors understand the upcoming user-centric products and
services that set the company apart from its competition and—even more
important—that will improve patients’ lives.
The McKinsey Design Index highlights four key areas of action companies
must take to join the top quartile of design performers. First, at the top
of the organization, adopt an analytical approach to design by measuring
and leading your company’s performance in this area with the same
rigor the company devotes to revenues and costs. Second, put the user expe-
rience front and center in the company’s culture by softening internal
boundaries (between physical products, services, and digital interactions, for
example) that don’t exist for customers. Third, nurture your top design
people and empower them in cross-functional teams that take collective
accountability for improving the user experience while retaining the
functional connections of their members. Finally, iterate, test, and learn
rapidly, incorporating user insights from the first idea until long after
the final launch.
Companies that tackle these four priorities boost their odds of becoming
more creative organizations that consistently design great products and
services. For companies that make it into the top quartile of MDI scorers,
the prizes are as rich as doubling their revenue growth and shareholder
returns over those of their industry counterparts.
Fabricio Dore is an associate partner in McKinsey’s São Paulo office; Garen Kouyoumjian is
a consultant in the London office, where Benedict Sheppard is a partner; Hugo Sarrazin
is a senior partner in the Silicon Valley office.
The authors wish to thank Becca Coggins, Volker Grüntges, and Michael Silber for their
tireless support of the research behind this article. They also wish to thank Maxim Berdutin,
Markus Berger-de León, John Edson, Sarah Greenberg, Rupert Lee, Randy Lim,
Drew Mancini, Rob Mathis, Rashid Puthiyapurayil, Stefan Roggenhofer, David Saunders,
and Hyo Yeon for their substantive input.
Finding and training the talent that companies will need if they are to thrive
in the future has become a defining issue for business leaders in our era of
advanced technologies. While hiring and contracting are options for individual
companies, across the corporate landscape as a whole, retraining—or
“reskilling”—is inescapable. So far, only a few companies have embarked on
large-scale programs to upgrade the skills of their workforce. SAP, a global
software company based in Walldorf, Germany, is one of them.
Stefan Ries (CHRO): We saw the first signals in the market that if we don’t
change we will be successful maybe for the next two or three years, but
then there will be a cliff, and at that point it will be too late. We had to act
now, as one simply can’t build a bridge to the other side of the ocean.
The Quarterly: This initiative required a significant increase in the budget for
training, 2.6 times the previous amount. How did you win board support for that?
The Quarterly: You are calling this skills program a “transformation.” Can
you give some detail about its transformational nature? To what extent does
the program go beyond providing incremental skills?
Learning journeys went beyond “function and feature” learning. For example,
embedding design-thinking elements into the IoT [Internet of Things]
learning journey helped to change the mind-set and skills toward a service-led
innovation discussion with our customers. We invited our participants to
join an internal IoT challenge that offered them the opportunity to apply their
newly acquired skills in teams around the globe, competing for the best
ideas and ultimately presenting their ideas to executive management.
The Quarterly: Once the initiative was approved, what were key elements of
the implementation?
Heike Laube (chief learning officer, DBS): The success of a skills transformation
in the current environment is to make people understand that changes are
required. It’s the customer that asked for it—but none of what you did in the
past is, per se, wrong. People also need to see and touch the investment:
“Is there a learning framework? Are there opportunities for me? Where can
I grow?”
Stefan Ries (CHRO): Two words best describe this: intuitive learning. You
hardly recognize that you’re learning while doing it. I think that’s the magic
key for the future. Through intuitive learning, employees don’t just take
massive classroom trainings or attend online courses—it’s embedded in their
daily employee experience. Employees learn because it’s fun and we can
play with it. Intuitive learning is this constant willingness to learn more
about very sophisticated programs or tools. Why? Because I’m eager to
learn and don’t want to be outdated.
We had no doubt about the necessity of the transformation. The whole environment
changed, the demand changed, and the technology changed. As a result, we as a company
needed to change. We are together in one boat. As the works council, we are just as
interested as management is in the success of the company. Upskilling and reskilling
ensures the employability of everyone.
What was new was that we made a move from “the skills we have” to “the skills we need.”
In the past, there was no database with profiles of every employee. This time we knew
the base and thus had a better idea of what needed to change—which doesn’t happen
overnight. People are creatures of habit, and to acquire new habits takes time.
Making this skills transformation a journey was the right way to do it. Nietzsche said that
whoever has a life purpose can bear any pain. You need to communicate the “why.”
If employees understand what the “why” is and why it is important, then they will be more
understanding when something doesn’t go exactly according to plan. It was always
clear that there were people responsible for individual aspects, and someone with overall
responsibility: the chief transformation officer. That was very helpful, and it gave us the
possibility to address issues that came up immediately.
Heike Laube (chief learning officer, DBS): One of the key success elements
was the repetitive momentum. There was not a single speech of our executive
board where the skills transformation was not mentioned. That was
seconded by another message by the executive-leadership team, one by one.
And then reinforced by all managers’ calls, where the skills team was
always present to explain, “How does the framework look? How does the
entire process work? How can you be nominated?” So we always made
the full 360 degrees from strategy into full execution. People have a solid
memory. They come back to you after three months. They come back,
again, after six months, and ask: “Is this still going?” And whenever the
team then says, “Yeah, we are still there. Look, this is the new schedule.
This is how many people already participated. This is where the content is
evolving,” that’s when you’re in a winning team.
Michael Kleinemeier (DBS head): It’s very important that this is not a one-
time effort. It has to be permanent. If you look at the technological changes
that will happen in the next five years, they will be greater than what has
happened over the past 20 and maybe even 30 years. The question, “What is
the skill set of tomorrow?” becomes a permanent one.
These interviews were conducted by Peter Gumbel, editorial director of the McKinsey Global
Institute, who is based in McKinsey’s Paris office, and Angelika Reich, a partner in the
Zurich office. They wish to thank Chandra Gnanasambandam and Matthias Winter for their
contributions to the interviews.
If there’s one thing a digital strategy can’t be, it’s incremental. The mismatch
between most incumbents’ business models and digital futures is too
great—and the environment is changing too quickly—for anything but bold,
inventive strategic plans to work.
All this holds doubly true for digital strategy, which demands special attention.
Leaders in many organizations lack clarity on what “digital” means for
strategy. They underestimate the degree to which digital is disrupting the
1
hris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick: People, Probabilities, and Big
C
Moves to Beat the Odds, Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2018.
In our experience, the only way for leaders to cut through inertia and
incrementalism is to take bold steps to fight and win on four fronts: You
must fight ignorance by using experiential techniques such as “go-and-
sees” and war gaming to break leaders out of old ways of thinking and into
today’s digital realities. You must fight fear through top-team effectiveness
programs that spur senior executives to action. You must fight guesswork
through pilots and structured analysis of use cases. And you must fight diffusion
of effort—a constant challenge given the simultaneous need to digitize
your core and innovate with new business models.
In this article, we will describe how real companies are winning each of these
fights—overcoming inertia while building confidence about how to master
the new economics of digital. You can join these companies in that effort,
thereby giving your digital strategy a jolt and accelerating the shift of your
strategy process as a whole, from old-fashioned annual planning to a more
continuous journey yielding big moves and big gains even when the end
point isn’t entirely clear.
FIGHTING IGNORANCE
Many senior executives aren’t fully fluent in what digital is, much less up to
speed on the ways it can change how their businesses operate or the compet-
itive context. That’s problematic. Executives who aren’t conversant with
digital are much more likely to fall prey to the “shiny object” syndrome: investing
in cool digital technologies (which might only be relevant for other busi-
nesses) without a clear understanding of how they will generate value in the
executives’ own business models. They also are more likely to make fragmented,
overlapping, or subscale digital investments; to pursue initiatives in the
wrong order; or to skip foundational moves that would enable more advanced
ones to pan out. Finally, this lack of grounding slows down the rate at
which a business deploys new digital technologies. In an era of powerful first-
mover advantages, winners routinely lead the pack in leveraging cutting-
edge digital technologies at scale to pull further ahead. Having only a remedial
understanding of trends and technologies has become dangerous.
Once the new realities are discovered, companies should speed up the process
of understanding how other players—including nontraditional ones—will
respond. The financial-services provider jump-started things by holding a series
of war-gaming workshops. It divided its leadership team into groups and
assigned them to role-play potential attackers such as Amazon, Google, or small,
cherry-picking start-ups. Seeing through the eyes of “baggage-free” attackers
inspires an awareness of how players with very different core competencies are
likely to act in the new landscape. It can also propel a shared sense of urgency
to change the old ways of thinking and acting.
These sessions radically changed the way the company’s leaders thought
about their business, their industry, and the digital shifts remaking both.
The end result was a set of leading-edge ideas for deploying digital to make
the current operating model faster and more effective, for investing in
new digital offerings, for designing and launching a new digital ecosystem
to meet the emerging needs of digital consumers, and for partnering with
start-ups beginning to emerge as leading players in advanced mobility.
FIGHTING FEAR
Getting left behind by digital first movers can be hazardous to your company’s
future. But many of your executives may perceive responding to digital—
making the big bets, building new businesses, shifting resources away from
old ones—as hazardous to their own future. As we’ve noted, that exacerbates
the social side of strategy and breeds strategic inertia. If you want to make
From what we have seen, this kind of fight doesn’t happen organically. You need
to design a programmatic effort with the same rigor you would insist on
to redesign key processes across your organization. This typically involves
making a clear case that executives can’t hide from the changes digital is
bringing and that encouraging and accelerating change—rather than chasing
it—can create more value. Then you need to give executives the tools and
support network they must have to succeed as leaders of that journey. Many
companies focus on the extensive detailing of digital-initiative plans but
skip the critical step of building an equally rigorous program to sustain the
leaders driving change.
Honest dialogue
At the industrial company we discussed earlier, the move to digital implied
significant change in the characteristics leaders required to be effective.
Naturally, concerns about waning influence, or worse, followed for many of
the company’s 20 or so business-unit leaders. The industrial conglomerate
confronted these fears head-on by organizing a top-team effectiveness program
to surface anxieties, build awareness of how they were affecting decision
making, and define how leaders could remain relevant. In workshops, executives
discussed the specific mind-sets and behavioral shifts needed to gain
“ownership” of digital initiatives as a group and to become role models for
their organizations.
FIGHTING GUESSWORK
Pursuing an aggressive digital strategy involves leaps into the unknown:
simultaneously, you are likely to be moving into new areas and overhauling
existing businesses with new technologies. What’s more, in many digital
markets, the premium of being a first mover makes it necessary not only to
shift direction but also to do so faster than your peers. The combination of
ambiguity and the need for speed sometimes gives rise to guesswork and
moves that are hasty or poorly thought out—and to anxiety about whether a
move isn’t going to work or just needs more time.
2
or more on the mind-set changes needed for digital effectiveness, see Julie Goran, Laura LaBerge, and
F
Ramesh Srinivasan, “Culture for a digital age,” McKinsey Quarterly, July 2017, McKinsey.com.
“Skunkworks” efforts began to give the company sharper insights into the
timetables and financial profiles of different investments, so it avoided both
the “finger in the air” syndrome (which dooms some digital efforts) and
excessive modeling (which bogs down others). The end result was a value-
thesis projection of a pretax cash-flow improvement exceeding 20 percent
by 2025. That built the confidence of senior leaders and the board alike.
The oil and gas company mentioned earlier got a rapid bead on the impact
that its digital initiatives were having on its business performance when
it automated the evaluation of several business cases. Testing was more or
less continuous, which reduced the level of anxiety about the investments,
because executives had hard data on how things were performing rather
than relying on guesses or intuition in realms they didn’t know extremely
well. It also gave them more confidence to push cutting-edge solutions: they
didn’t need to see how other oil and gas companies did things when they
could move first and see, in near real time, what worked and what didn’t.
An important element of this nimble approach was breaking up big bets into
smaller, staged investments. While the oil and gas company was ready
to invest in digital, it was decidedly uncomfortable with throwing money
at a problem and hoping for the best. It therefore developed a series of
rigorous stage gates for investments managed by a new, central digital-
transformation office. The office was charged with overseeing the portfolio
of digital investments to ensure that the most promising projects were
funded and others defunded before they soaked up valuable resources. In
tandem, the head of the company’s digital efforts was vested with the
responsibility for approving which ideas would move to initial development,
basing these decisions on the organization’s overall vision for digital.
The ideas, which originated mostly with the business units, included clear
requirements for testing. The “fail fast” mind-set was embedded from
the outset because it allowed the company to learn quickly from mistakes
and to minimize wasted funding. Another payoff was that the central
team could identify synergies, which allowed the development costs of some
investments to be shared rather than borne by a single business. These
processes helped temper some of the risks of the bold investments the company
was making, gave leaders the confidence to venture ahead as first movers,
and kept open the option to correct course quickly when the data pointed in
another direction.
FIGHTING DIFFUSION
Effective strategy requires focus, but responding to digital inevitably risks
diffusion of effort, or “spreading the peanut butter too thinly.” Most companies
we know are trying, and struggling, to do two things at once: to reinvent
the core by digitizing and automating some of its key elements, for example,
Two concepts can help you navigate. First, view your company as a portfolio
of initiatives3 at different stages of seeding, nurturing, growing, or pruning.
Our colleague Lowell Bryan championed this view upward of 15 years ago,
and it is more relevant than ever in our digital age because the opportunities,
time frames, and economics of core businesses can be very different from
those of new ones—so resources and efforts shouldn’t be applied uniformly.
Second, embrace the necessity of “big moves,” such as the dramatic reallocation
of resources, sustained capital investment, radical productivity improvements,
and disciplined M&A. As our colleagues have shown,4 successful market-
beating strategies nearly always rest on such moves. Making them mutually
reinforcing, so that developments in the core help to support new digital
businesses and vice versa, is a critical part of managing the risks of diffusion.
3
Lowell Bryan, “Enduring Ideas: Portfolio of initiatives,” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2009, McKinsey.com.
4
ee Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, “Strategy to beat the odds,” McKinsey Quarterly, February 2018,
S
McKinsey.com.
A portfolio approach
As a first step, the company went through its portfolio business by business,
focusing on three questions: Which emerging digital products and services
were missing from the portfolio? Which product offerings and elements of
the existing operating model should be digitized or fully digitally reengineered
to improve customer journeys? And what areas should be abandoned?
The answers for the company’s healthcare markets differed from those for
banking, but the company became comfortable with hard choices and
more attuned to new opportunities by tying all decisions to clear use cases.
As part of this exercise, the company developed scenarios for how the value
pools in each of its industry verticals would probably shift across component
customer value chains. It wanted to get a sense of the types of services that
clients and potential clients were likely to demand and thus might try to
obtain from new suppliers or IT outsourcers. For businesses where more
revenue would be likely to shift, the company was comfortable placing bigger
bets on new digital offerings, in contrast with its approach to businesses where
the revenue at stake wasn’t changing as much.
Your best digital competitors—the ones you really need to worry about—
aren’t taking small steps. Neither can you. This doesn’t mean that a digital
strategy must be designed or put to work with any less confidence than
strategies were in the past, though. Strategy has always required closing gaps
in knowledge about complex markets, inspiring executive teams (and
employees) to go beyond their fears and reluctance to act, and calibrating
risks when you bet boldly.
The good news is that the digital era, for all its stomach-churning speed
and volatility, also serves up more information about the competitive environ-
ment than yesterday’s strategists could ever imagine. Simultaneously,
analytically backed, rapid test-and-learn approaches have opened up new
avenues to help companies correct course while staying true to their
strategic goals. Today’s leaders need to step up by persuading their organizations
that digital strategies may be tougher than other strategies but are potentially
more rewarding—and well worth the bolder bets and cultural reforms
required, first, to survive and, ultimately, to thrive.
Tanguy Catlin is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Boston office, where Shannon Varney is
an associate partner; Laura LaBerge is a senior practice manager of Digital McKinsey and
is based in the Stamford office.
The Chinese financial conglomerate Ping An, which has expanded beyond
insurance into a broader set of ecosystems, such as banking, healthcare, smart
cities, and housing, is a prime example of such a first mover, at a scale that
most companies only dream of. In the past five years, Ping An has accumulated
nearly 500 million online users, created 11 new digital platforms across industries,
and increased its number of insurance agents to 1.4 million, all armed with the
company’s digital tools and apps. Ping An’s commitment to investing in emerging
technologies has been a particularly important driver of this expansion: it now
directs 1 percent of its annual revenue—around $1 billion—toward tech investment.
In this interview, conducted by McKinsey’s Joe Ngai, the deputy CEO of Ping
An, Jessica Tan, discusses recent developments and the power of freeing
employees from the fear of failure.
Jessica Tan: We looked at what sectors were most important, not only to the
economy in general but to the consumer—such as autos, housing, and
health. We then identified the key areas in each of these ecosystems where
we could add value. In the health arena, for example, as an insurer, we’re
usually at the end of the customer experience, so we wanted to move further
upstream to capture the customers as they start their journey. One of our
health platforms that just went public, Good Doctor, now fields more than
500,000 online consultations a day from customers who are looking for
health-related advice. Since 55 percent of health expenditures are government
related in China, we now also serve about 258 cities, helping local govern-
ments to process medical claims and work more efficiently. And we continue
to investigate how we could contribute to the patient side by providing
technology solutions that facilitate affordable, easy-to-access primary care.
Jessica Tan: This was quite a significant conceptual change for us. Five
years ago, we were really learning from what the internet guys were
doing: everything was free. They got the users first, and only then started
to monetize their offerings by cross-selling and up-selling.
So the idea was to create these platforms where we could draw in customers
who would then later buy our financial-services products. We started
with our five ecosystems by offering services for free—for instance, our Good
Doctor app, which provides users with free medical consultations and
other services. Gradually, over time, users then began to buy our products. In
the first three years, frankly, it was difficult just building everything. Like
any other start-up, our new platforms needed time to get to scale.
But over the last two years, about 35 to 40 percent of our new financial-services
customers—people who open a bank account or buy an insurance product—
have been users on our platform who are new to Ping An and hadn’t previously
purchased any products. We currently have around 486 million online
users that we reach in our ecosystem. So we’ve created this virtual cycle,
whereby our customers have developed some affinity with us, and naturally
buy from us. We think this ecosystem model is much better than a more
The Quarterly: Ping An has built a lot of technology in-house, including facial
recognition, artificial intelligence [AI], and blockchain. What was Ping An’s
motivation for investing in technology built in-house rather than licensing it
from others?
Jessica Tan: In the beginning, some of it was out of necessity. For example,
when we were looking at facial recognition five years ago, the options out
there didn’t accurately register Asian faces. It was the same experience with
voice recognition. We wanted to use it in our call center to recognize
customer’s voices, but the options available to us were not very good at
recognizing Chinese dialects.
The other reason was that, particularly with AI, our needs were very specific
to the scenarios we were solving for. Unfortunately, many technology
companies might offer machine-learning techniques, but they don’t really
understand your business, and it takes a while to build that understanding.
That was one of the challenges when we started doing this. How do you get
people with the right domain knowledge and the right technical skills to
be able to build something together?
Jessica Tan: We have a clear vision and set very aggressive targets. No
matter your background or position, at the end of the year, the only thing
that matters is whether you’ve delivered your results or not. That helps
to galvanize people to work together because if they don’t, they won’t meet
their targets. We also have a zero-based process every year, where next
year’s target is based on market potential, not on the previous year’s growth
trajectory. It’s like playing a game: you go back to level zero; you don’t ride
on the success of the past.
Over time, our hit rate on innovation has gotten better, because what you
learn is that often your original instinct—about why you need to make a certain
move and the untapped potential that you see—is correct, but your first idea
of how to actually execute it might be wrong. But if you keep trying, under-
standably making a few missteps as you make your way on an unpaved path,
you’ll eventually get there. What I’ve found is that with each new success,
you become more confident in your abilities and your instincts to try the next
big thing.
The Quarterly: Ping An has grown at a tremendous rate over the past 15 years.
What worries you the most? What keeps you awake at night?
Jessica Tan: Not being fast enough. There’s just so many things to do, and
speed is of the essence. And what’s especially exciting about China is that
you may be the best now, but if you’re not fast enough, a 70 percent solution
can beat you. The market is too big and too competitive. There’s a hunger
that you can see in the market. You have to have good people who are motivated,
driven, who want to go out and make things happen. We have been successful,
but we can’t slow down.
Jessica Tan is the deputy CEO of Ping An Insurance Group. This interview was conducted
by Joe Ngai, a senior partner in McKinsey’s Greater China office.
94
AGILE
ACCIDENTALLY
AN INTERVIEW WITH
THE RIJKSMUSEUM’S
TACO DIBBITS
95
The director of the national museum of Dutch art and history
describes the central role of agility in the museum’s massive
renovation project—and in its drive for perpetual renewal.
When its current building was completed in 1885, the Rijksmuseum, the
national art museum of the Netherlands, was intended to serve as a cathedral
to house the greatest treasures of Dutch art and history. Throughout the 20th
century, it was increasingly deprived of its glory: its decorations were painted
white, and it slowly became cluttered with modern offices and archives. To
some, it had become a dusty labyrinth where people struggled to find their way.
At the turn of the millennium, the Dutch government, along with a group of
corporate sponsors, offered a singular opportunity in the form of a major monetary
gift: the chance to transform the entire museum all at once.1 Despite bumps
along the way, including a surprise discovery of asbestos in the building that
stretched the museum’s closure to ten years, the museum’s physical trans-
formation ultimately spurred an organizational one as well. As museum director
Taco Dibbits describes in this interview with McKinsey’s Wouter Aghina and
Allen Webb, the museum’s staff inadvertently embraced agile organizational
principles—forming, dissolving, and reforming teams that were more inter-
disciplinary than those it had employed in the past—as it worked to redesign
its galleries.
1
For more about the renovation, see rijksmuseum.nl.
The Quarterly: How were things organized at the museum before the renovation?
Taco Dibbits: In the old museum, the art was arranged by specialization and
was, in a sense, a reflection of the organizational diagram of the museum
staff. The curator of ceramics had her gallery of vases and bowls, the curator
of glass had his gallery of champagne flutes and pitchers, and so on. Within
these galleries, separated by medium, the materials were then organized
chronologically. So, for instance, in the paintings galleries you would start with
the Middle Ages and walk up to the 20th century. With each new category,
the public would have to start all over again.
The Quarterly: What was the motivating idea for a new approach? How did it
change the way things worked?
Taco Dibbits: What we sometimes forget is that when visitors come to a museum,
they don’t generally know what they’re supposed to get out of it. We sought
to change that by creating an experience that would give the public a sense of
time and a sense of beauty. We thought the best way to do this was to create
a more sweeping chronological arrangement, because a national museum like
ours also serves as the physical memory of the nation. Therefore, if you want
97
to create a historical narrative for the public, you have to start mixing all the
collections that traditionally had been arranged by material.
This would mean a change for our curators, who had previously worked quite
autonomously. Now, everyone would have to start working together. We
did this by establishing a working group for each century made up of different
curators, as well as a person from the education department who would
think about the right interpretation approach for the public.
The Quarterly: Were these groups completely self-directed or was there some
leadership role involved?
Taco Dibbits: Each working group was chaired by the person whose expertise
was right for that century; for example, in the Netherlands, the 17th century
was the Golden Age—with paintings by Rembrandt, Vermeer, and others—so
the curator of paintings would chair that working group.
98
We encouraged the chairs to behave, to some degree, like enlightened despots,
because we knew that otherwise, the groups would have tended not to make
rigorous choices. We Dutch are all about consensus. But that kind of approach
would have created a result that was too homogenous. We needed people in
each group who could make their mark and say, “Well, the 18th century is the
century of decorative arts. So that’s how we’re going to organize it.” You need
a few people who push toward the highest-quality result, and those who are
inspired by them to do the work and follow their lead.
The Quarterly: How did the proposal and selection process play out?
Taco Dibbits: It took about a year and a half for the groups to craft their proposals.
There was very thorough research involved, and after that, each group
presented its proposal to what we called the steering group.
Then the question for the management team became, “How are we going to
slash the number of objects?” The 17th-century group, for example, presented
far too many objects, around 3,000, which would never fit in the galleries.
Any decision to cut down objects would naturally be frustrating for the working
groups. It’s very difficult to “kill your darlings.” Our solution was to basically
dissolve the task forces and assemble new ones. Their new mission was to
create a selection one-third the size of what the first groups had proposed.
They also had to write an argument for why they wanted to keep particular
objects in, why they would be interesting to the public, and how these objects
related to the others in the proposal. In this way, it gave all the specialists a
feeling of ownership in the creation of the museum’s offerings, even beyond
their own area of expertise.
Taco Dibbits: We could not have imagined the scale of the success. The year
of the reopening, in 2013, we had 2.25 million visitors, and the following
year, the number of visitors increased by 250,000. At the time, we were so happy
with how well things had gone—and so exhausted as a museum—that we
didn’t immediately shift to new priorities. After two years, the previous director
left, and I started in this role. Because I had been on the board in my previous
role and I was an internal hire from within the museum, we could move
quickly to draft a new vision and strategy. We didn’t include anybody else in
that process, but once we had it on paper we opened it up for criticism. And
we came away with a stronger vision, I think, because of those discussions
with our supervisory board and works council.
We ultimately decided to create four new agile working groups, one for each
aspect of our new vision: exhibitions, personal stories, the customer journey,
and digital innovation. For each group, there was a chair who would lead the
agenda and then a project manager to steer and support the process. Since we
no longer had the luxury of working inside a museum that was closed to the
public, speed was of the essence—so we set a goal for these groups to come up
with results within three months.
TACO DIBBITS
(2006–08)
3. In your experience, what
Head of fine and
common career advice
decorative arts
is wrong or misleading?
(2002–06)
Curator, 17th-century “Follow the money.”
painting
4. What’s the most important
Christie’s London thing that business leaders in
(1997–2002) other industries could learn
Director, Old Masters from the art world?
Taco Dibbits: One great decision that we made was to open up the groups to
the entire organization, from curators to marketing. This gave everyone a
feeling of empowerment to be able to use their specific knowledge and skills. It
also provided the groups with more diverse perspectives that became crucial
in tackling these multifaceted issues.
For example, a curator knows the collection and has an antenna out for what’s
currently important in the academic community. Meanwhile, a security guard
has everyday contact with the public and sees how visitors move around in the
museum. And somebody from the social-media team can argue, “Just because
we’re doing this exhibition on slavery doesn’t necessarily mean that people
from the Caribbean will visit. In fact, we aren’t currently reaching them; we
need to engage those groups on other platforms.” We learned that having the
involvement of people from many different disciplines ensures that we’ll
maintain a stronger connection between the museum and the community.
Taco Dibbits: Interestingly, they each went about it in different ways. The
customer-journey group conducted a kind of agile research outside the museum
on why different groups of people—international visitors, Dutch families,
and so on—don’t come to the museum. They presented a few conclusions and
laid out how much their solutions would cost and how much value they
would bring to the museum. Today, we have smaller groups within our normal
working structure actually implementing these recommendations.
The personal-stories working group took another tack: they decided to invite
people from all kinds of professional backgrounds—entertainment,
journalism—to brainstorm how we could craft stories that would resonate
with visitors. At the end, the group identified the ingredients of a good
story and how we might tell it. The group is currently thinking about how
we tell our stories on different platforms, such as Facebook and Instagram.
The Quarterly: How did you balance giving these teams the freedom to tackle
these problems while also providing enough direction to keep them on course?
Taco Dibbits: In Dutch, we say, “Let everybody fly.” But as leaders, we also
have to let our teams know where they are flying to; otherwise there’s a
risk they will become frustrated and deflated. I think agile leaders need to
understand that for teams to self-organize and self-direct, they also need
to have a very clear and thoughtfully constrained task.
However, this doesn’t mean going so far as to tell teams how to work toward
the goal, because that will actually hamper them. And then they’ll think,
“Why should we do it that way, just because he or she says so?” It is better that
leaders restrain themselves even though they may already think they
know what the result will likely be. After all, the team’s results might be
surprising in a positive way.
104
The Quarterly: In your experience, what’s the optimal number of people for
these teams? Is there any tension around who’s involved?
Taco Dibbits: For one thing, once you start this agile way of working and
create task forces, the people who are not initially placed on them feel
excluded. So the first reaction of our task force chairs is often to ask, “Can we
make the group bigger?” And I say, “No, you can’t.” The optimal size for
these groups is really five to seven people.
This is, in part, for pragmatic reasons. If the group takes a vote, an even number
of members makes it difficult to decide. Also, the group dynamics change with
more people. If you have more than seven people, it’s difficult to have a fruitful
discussion, because by the time everyone gets to have their say, you’ve lost speed.
Also, with a smaller group, it’s harder for a person to remain silent. You can
challenge people to say something and they often have very valuable insights.
Taco Dibbits: The role of our leadership team is to push people to think more
broadly, to get them out of their comfort zone, and ultimately to do things
they never imagined possible.
If you want to keep pushing forward, you have to make sure that you and your
broader team are seeking out different perspectives, and not just from the
usual places. It’s human nature to gather people around us who have a similar
way of thinking. But it’s better when we find others who challenge us and
expand our understanding. For instance, it may not be our first instinct
to consult someone without a strong background in museum work, but if
they have, say, a deep understanding of the cultural issues surrounding an
upcoming exhibition, we can benefit greatly from their contributions—
and the exhibition will be richer for it. It’s all about actively cultivating an
open mind and a sense of curiosity.
Taco Dibbits is the general director of the Rijksmuseum. This interview was conducted by
Wouter Aghina, a partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office, and Allen Webb, editor in chief
of McKinsey Quarterly, who is based in the Seattle office.
By now, it is well understood that people who believe their job has meaning
and a broader purpose are more likely to work harder, take on challenging
or unpopular tasks, and collaborate effectively. Research repeatedly shows
that people deliver their best effort and ideas when they feel they are part
of something larger than the pursuit of a paycheck.
Most business leaders know this. They take pains to broadcast the company’s
strategy to employees. They say they really want employees to know that
the organization has a higher purpose. And yet many of these messages aren’t
getting through: in one survey of senior executives around the world, only
38 percent of leaders said that their staff had a clear understanding of the
organization’s purpose and commitment to its core values and beliefs.1 US
and global Gallup polls confirm this, finding that about 70 percent of employees
are not “involved in, enthusiastic about, or committed to their work.”2
Another study showed that nearly nine out of ten American workers believe
1
The business case for purpose, a joint report from EY and Harvard Business Review Analytic Services,
2015, ey.com.
2
my Adkins, “Majority of U.S. employees not engaged despite gains in 2014,” Gallup, January 28, 2015,
A
news.gallup.com.
1. REDUCE ANONYMITY
Humans are collaborators. We have evolved that way, understanding that
we can accomplish more by cooperating face-to-face with others. Modern
organizations, with their siloed workplaces and increasingly digitized
operations, can foster separation and anonymity. But perceptive leaders can
find ways to establish deeper connections between any worker and his or
her customers.
Immediately, the cooks started to work differently. For example, they began
freshly preparing eggs for each customer, instead of grilling several eggs
in advance and plating those when ordered. Simply seeing their customer
3
usan Adams, “Unhappy employees outnumber happy ones by two to one worldwide,” Forbes, October 10,
S
2013, forbes.com.
4
yan W. Buell, Tami Kim, and Chia-Jung Tsay, “Creating reciprocal value through operational transparency,”
R
Management Science, June 2017, Volume 63, Number 6, pp. 1673–95.
Exhibit
Four straightforward practices can help to create an environment where
organizational change is personal.
Reduce anonymity
Talk with employees about who their customers are, and encourage each
employee to connect with one.
Alistair Spalding, artistic director and chief executive of Sadler’s Wells Theatre,
in London, understands the value of direct contact.5 About ten years ago,
5
reek Vermeulen, “Balance exploration with exploitation,” in Breaking Bad Habits: Defy Industry Norms and
F
Reinvigorate Your Business, Boston, Massachusetts: Harvard Business Review Press, November 2017, pp.
179–208.
Spalding saw that the artists who performed at Sadler’s Wells were essentially
anonymous to the staff. The employees did their work during the day,
the artists showed up at night to perform, and the groups never connected.
Unsurprisingly, the employees demonstrated relatively little interest in
the theater’s overarching intent to become the center of innovation in dance.
Indeed, the staff tended to have a somewhat negative attitude toward
the artists.
This was a great boon to the artists. But the employees benefited as well. As
the theater became more of a home to a community of artists, the artists
became much less anonymous to the employees. Gradually, Spalding began
noticing proactive changes and improvements in the performance of the
employees. For example, lighting staffers became more involved in the selection
of lamps for performances, bringing a level of technical expertise that had
been lacking before. Similarly, the cafeteria staff became more engaged as
they saw how their work contributed to a dynamic atmosphere that, in
turn, encouraged artists to spend time at the theater. The marketing and
sales side benefited as well, and over the next four years, attendance at
Sadler’s Wells grew 25 percent, to 470,000 visitors a year.
Spalding believes that none of this would have occurred without the associate-
artist program. “I thought that it was important that it wasn’t just admin-
istrators around,” he said. “That there are actual living artists in the building
reminds everyone of what we’re doing. The whole organization is involved
in the work of artists.” By replacing anonymity with familiarity, Spalding had
altered attitudes and behavior, laying the groundwork for success.
After meeting the student, fund-raisers placed many more calls than before
and secured larger donations per call. Research shows that the person on
the other end of the line can sense the caller’s enthusiasm.7 The fund-raisers’
new attitude made their phone conversations more engaging, convincing,
and successful. In the two months after meeting the student, fund-raisers
raised 295 percent more than they had in the two months before—an average
of $9,704.58 versus $2,459.44.
6
dam M. Grant, “Does intrinsic motivation fuel the prosocial fire? Motivational synergy in predicting persistence,
A
performance, and productivity,” Journal of Applied Psychology, January 2008, Volume 93, Number 1, pp.
48–58; Adam M. Grant, “The significance of task significance: Job performance effects, relational mechanisms,
and boundary conditions,” Journal of Applied Psychology, January 2008, Volume 93, Number 1, pp. 108–24;
Adam M. Grant et al., “Impact and the art of motivation maintenance: The effects of contact with beneficiaries
on persistence behavior,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, May 2007, Volume 103,
Number 1, pp. 53–67; Adam M. Grant and David A. Hofmann, “Outsourcing inspiration: The performance
effects of ideological messages from leaders and beneficiaries,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision
Processes, November 2011, Volume 116, Number 2, pp. 173–87.
7
Amy Drahota and Scott Simon, “Hearing a smile in tone of voice,” NPR, January 19, 2008, npr.org.
That is what Dorothee Ritz, Microsoft’s general manager for Austria, did
with her Vienna-based employees.8 Ritz insisted that everyone see for them-
selves how people were implementing the company’s products and services.
One manager spent several days out on the street with police officers to
learn how they use remote data. Another manager spent two days in a hospital
to see the impact of going paperless. Soon, Ritz noticed, employees were
suggesting more pointed solutions for customers based on their on-site visits.
According to Ritz, this simple practice gives employees a better sense of
the real value of their work.
8
aniel M. Cable, “Crafting narratives about purpose,” in Alive at Work: The Neuroscience of Helping Your
D
People Love What They Do, Boston, Massachusetts: Harvard Business Review Press, March 2018.
9
J ana Gallus, “Fostering public good contributions with symbolic awards: A large-scale natural field experiment
at Wikipedia,” Management Science, December 2017, Volume 63, Number 12, pp. 3999–4015.
Put simply, work becomes more meaningful when people know that their
actions are noticed and appreciated. The recognition doesn’t necessarily need
to be public, as Bryan Stroube from the London Business School and
Robert Vesco from Bloomberg discovered when they studied the comments
posted on the website Hacker News.
Many companies can create an internal network where employees can “like”
the work of colleagues. But the personal touch is important as well. Good
leaders make constructive praise a regular part of their management routine.
Almost every company says they would like to do this, but few succeed.
Business leaders regularly communicate their company’s higher purpose
in a vision or mission statement and try to reinforce it at conferences
and workshops.
While these efforts are well intended, few have a positive or lasting impact.
Sometimes, the problem is the vision itself. Gerard Langeler, a cofounder
10
erard H. Langeler, “The vision trap,” Harvard Business Review, March–April 1992, Volume 70, Number 2,
G
pp. 46–55, hbr.org.
11
ntonio L. Freitas et al., “Seeing oneself in one’s choices: Construal level and self-pertinence of electoral
A
and consumer decisions,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, July 2008, Volume 44, Number 4, pp.
1174–9, sciencedirect.com.
Research confirms that people are more motivated and persistent when
they think about why they are doing something (for instance, losing weight
to become healthy) instead of what they are doing (eating a salad).13 After
the fund-raisers met the student, they focused less on what they were doing
(making unpleasant phone calls) and more on why (helping students fund
their college education). When people understand and believe in the reasons
behind their actions, they display greater resilience and stamina.
The idea that employees perform better when they feel a deep connection
to their work is a fundamental part of many corporate reorganizations, where
agile systems and other efforts are designed to tap a company’s greatest
asset: the personal creativity of its employees. But it is not enough to institute
systemic changes and hope that employees will rise to the task. Instead,
senior executives should take the sorts of practical steps that help employees
in their search for meaning at work. When successful, these efforts provide
a road map for aligning the personal aspirations of employees with the most
important goals of the organization—a combination that benefits everyone.
12
or a deeper look at the importance of strategic clarity as it relates to meaning, we recommend the work of
F
Claudine Gartenberg. See, for example, Claudine Madras Gartenberg, Andrea Prat, and George Serafeim,
“Corporate purpose and financial performance,” Organization Science, forthcoming, ssrn.com.
13
Daniel M. Cable, Alive at Work.
Dan Cable is a professor of organizational behavior at the London Business School and
the author of Alive at Work: The Neuroscience of Helping Your People Love What They Do
(Harvard Business Review Press, 2018). Freek Vermeulen is the chair of strategy and
entrepreneurship faculty at the London Business School and the author of Breaking Bad
Habits: Defy Industry Norms and Reinvigorate Your Business (Harvard Business Review
Press, 2017).
To understand the relationship between meaning and health, consider the recent
work of a banking network to improve retention among 12,000 individuals. The
bank found that demographic data, such as age, salary, and performance ratings,
were far less correlated with employees’ intention to leave the bank than were
their attitudes toward several determinants of organizational health—defined
as the organization’s ability to align around a common vision, execute against
that vision effectively, and renew itself through creative thinking. In the case of
the bank, the organizational health and retention relationship was particularly
strong with respect to variables connected to meaning—among them motivation,
the work environment, and how open and trusting the workplace was.
This case example speaks to a broader trend seen in our research, which
now encompasses more than five million survey responses, from employees
at 1,700 organizations, regarding 37 workplace practices. Those responses
1
ee Jeffrey Pfeffer, “The overlooked essentials of employee well-being,” McKinsey Quarterly, September 2018,
S
McKinsey.com.
• Cable and Vermeulen find that among the many ways that companies create
meaningful workplaces, the ability of leaders to connect daily work to a
grander goal stands out. Our work confirms that “direction”—the ability to give
employees a clear sense of where an organization is headed—is a critical
determinant of organizational health. And “employee engagement”—the extent
to which leaders engage employees on the objectives of the organization—is
among the three workplace practices that contribute most to strong direction.
• These findings are consistent with Pfeffer’s conclusion that a sense of job
control is central to the physical and mental health of employees. Pfeffer
also shows that having strong personal connections and relationships at work
improves employee well-being. Our research confirms that the quality of
employee interactions, measured through the strength of the “work environ-
ment,” is a key driver of health, and that “open and trusting” workplace
behavior is a critical contributor to a strong work environment.
• Finally, we’ve seen over and over that giving people a sense of ownership and
control contributes to a greater sense of accountability, to a better work
environment, and to stronger execution skills. While this may sound intuitive,
we know from experience that it’s challenging for employees to embrace
true ownership, and for leaders to let go sufficiently for the ownership to
become real. We’re hopeful that the consistency between our ground-level
analysis of individual workers and their organizations, on the one hand, and
the academic pattern recognition of Cable, Vermeulen, and Pfeffer, on the
other, will embolden more leaders to try.
Blockchain is all the rage. Bitcoin—the first and most infamous application
of the technology—has grabbed headlines for its rocketing price and volatility.
Predictions such as the World Economic Forum survey suggesting that
10 percent of global GDP will be stored on blockchain by 2027 have inspired
government task forces, breathless press reports, and a multitude of con-
versations at Davos and in corporate conference rooms.1
Tellingly, large investments are being made. Last year, venture capitalists
put more than $1 billion into blockchain start-ups.2 Initial coin offerings (ICOs),
the blockchain-backed sale of cryptocurrency tokens in a new venture,
raised $5 billion in 2017. Leading technology players are putting money and
people into blockchain: IBM has invested $200 million and more than
1,000 employees in the blockchain-powered Internet of Things (IoT). 3
1
eep shift: Technology tipping points and societal impact, World Economic Forum, September 2015,
D
weforum.org.
2
“Blockchain startups absorbed 5X more capital via ICOs than equity financings in 2017,” CB Insights, January
2018, cbinsights.com.
3
“IBM invests to lead global Internet of Things market—shows accelerated client adoption,” IBM, October 2016,
ibm.com.
Blockchain beyond the hype: What is the strategic business value? 119
Yet the fact remains that blockchain is an immature technology with a nascent
market and no clear recipe for success. No wonder many corporate leaders are
asking themselves a lot of questions. Is blockchain a disruptive threat? Is
it a fad? Most importantly, can blockchain have strategic value for my company?
In this article, we’ll explain how we arrived at these insights and we’ll describe
a structured approach companies can follow to evaluate blockchain strategies.
Some organizations may discover ways to extract value from blockchain
in the short term. Dominant companies may discover even more: if they are
willing to invest now to establish their blockchains as market solutions,
they can cement their leadership and forestall the incursion of disruptive
digital natives.
WHAT IS BLOCKCHAIN?
Blockchain is not synonymous with Bitcoin, which is just one cryptocurrency
application that uses it. Blockchain is a distributed ledger, or database,
shared across a public or private computing network. Each computer node
in the network holds a copy of the ledger, so there is no single point of failure.
Every piece of information is mathematically encrypted and added as a
new “block” to the chain of historical records. Various consensus protocols
are used to validate a new block with other participants before it can be
added to the chain. This prevents fraud or double spending without requiring
a central authority. The ledger can also be programmed with “smart contracts,”
a set of conditions recorded on the blockchain, so that transactions auto-
matically trigger when the conditions are met. For example, smart contracts
could be used to automate insurance-claim payouts.
Blockchain beyond the hype: What is the strategic business value? 121
Q4 2018
Blockchain
Exhibit 1 of 1
Exhibit
Private, permissioned blockchain architecture offers a way to optimize network
openness and scalability.
Blockchain-architecture options
Permissionless Permissioned
Anyone can join, read, write, Anyone can join and read
and commit Only authorized and known
Public Hosted on public servers participants can write and commit
Anonymous, highly resilient
4
“ASX selects distributed ledger technology to replace CHESS,” ASX, December 2017.
5
“Maersk and IBM to form joint venture applying blockchain to improve global trade and digitize supply chains,”
IBM, January 2018, ibm.com.
6
Jay Clayton, “Statement on cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings,” U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission, December 2017, sec.gov.
Blockchain beyond the hype: What is the strategic business value? 123
Technology must advance. The immaturity of blockchain technology is a
major concern for companies today. Organizations need a trusted enterprise
solution, particularly because they may not realize the cost benefits of
blockchain until their old systems are decommissioned. Currently, few start-
ups have sufficient credibility, technology stability, or industry expertise
for government or industry deployment at scale. Major technology players are
positioning themselves to address this gap with blockchain-as-a-service
(BaaS) offerings in a model similar to cloud-based storage.
Assets must be digitally connected. Assets such as equities, which are digitally
recorded and transacted, can be simply managed end to end on a blockchain
system or integrated through application programming interfaces (APIs)
with existing systems. However, connecting and securing physical goods to
a blockchain requires enabling technologies like IoT and biometrics. This
connection can be a vulnerability in the security of a blockchain ledger.7 While
the blockchain record might be immutable, the physical item or IoT sensor
can be tampered with. Certifying the chain of custody of commodities such
as grain or milk, for example, would require a tagging system like radio-
frequency identification, which could increase assurance even if it couldn’t
deliver absolute provenance.
7
To be sure, blockchain does not eliminate the possibility of fraudulent data being written to the database, which
could in turn be used to substantiate the existence of fraudulent assets.
Companies that have identified a promising use case, however, will move
on to the second part of our structured approach: understanding how their
market position will impact that target use case.
Part of blockchain’s value comes from its network effects and interoperability,
and all parties need to agree on a common standard to realize this value—
multiple siloed blockchains provide little advantage over multiple siloed data-
bases. As the technology develops, a market standard will emerge and
investments into the nondominant standard will be wasted. Coordination
with other industry players is critical. That’s why a company’s market
dominance, or lack thereof, affects its ability to influence other key players
in the industry and to help shape standardization and regulatory barriers.
Here’s how market position shapes blockchain strategy.
8
“Change Healthcare announces general availability of first enterprise-scale blockchain solution for healthcare,”
Change Healthcare, January 2018, changehealthcare.com.
Blockchain beyond the hype: What is the strategic business value? 125
and consortia that will shape the new standards poised to disrupt their
current businesses. Then they can position themselves to shape and capture
the value of new blockchain standards.
Convening tactics should be deployed for high-value use cases, such as trade
finance, that cannot be realized without a broadly shared set of standards.
An example of a convener following this strategy is Toyota, whose Research
Institute set up the Blockchain Mobility Consortium with four global
partners to focus on blockchain solutions for critical accelerators of auton-
omous vehicles: data sharing, peer-to-peer transaction, and usage-
based insurance.9
9
“Toyota Research Institute explores blockchain technology for development of new mobility ecosystem,”
Toyota, May 2017, toyota.com.
10
“Power Ledger token generation event closes with A$34million raised,” Power Ledger, October 2017,
web.powerledger.io.
Blockchain has strategic value for many companies. In the short term, the
technology can reduce costs without disintermediation, and in the long
run it can create new business models. Existing digital infrastructure and
the growth of BaaS offerings have lowered the costs of experimentation.
However, a variety of fundamental factors limit the scalability of many use
cases and extend the amount of time needed for return on investment on
proof of concepts.
Assessing these factors with pragmatic skepticism about the scale of impact
and speed to market will help reveal the correct strategic approach on where
and how companies can extract value in the short term. Dominant players,
however, have an enormous opportunity to establish their blockchain as the
market solution. They should be making those moves now.
The authors wish to thank Dorian Gärtner, Matt Higginson, Jeff Penney, Gregor Theisen,
Jen Vu, and Garima Vyas for their contributions to this article.
For the full article, which includes a snapshot of more than 90 use cases for blockchain
across 14 industries, see “Blockchain beyond the hype: What is the strategic business value?,”
on McKinsey.com.
Blockchain beyond the hype: What is the strategic business value? 127
Illustration by Kagan McLeod
The problem
You are the head of a major motion-picture studio, and you must
decide whether to greenlight a movie project. You need to predict
whether it will be boffo (a box-office hit) or a bust. To make this
decision, you must make two interrelated forecasts: the costs of
production and potential box-office revenue.
Production costs are easy, you think: you know the shooting
days, specific location costs, and computer-generated imagery costs.
You can enter these into a spreadsheet that reflects the film’s
production plan. Potential box-office revenue is harder to predict, but
you know roughly how many screens the film will be on during
opening weekend, how “hot” your stars are right now, and how much
you are going to spend on advertising.
Do you have enough data to make a decision? Maybe. Are the data
enough to make the right decision? Probably not. Research shows
that film executives overestimate potential box-office revenue most
of the time.
The remedies
One way to make better forecasts, in Hollywood and beyond, is
to take the “outside view,” which means building a statistical view
of your project based on a reference class of similar projects.
Indeed, taking the outside view is essential for companies seeking
to understand their positions on their industries’ power curves of
economic profit.2 To understand how the outside view works, con-
sider an experiment performed with a group at a private-equity
company. The group was asked to build a forecast for an ongoing
investment from the bottom up—tracing its path from beginning
to end and noting the key steps, actions, and milestones required to
meet proposed targets. The group’s median expected rate of
return on this investment was about 50 percent. The group was then
asked to fill out a table comparing that ongoing investment with
categories of similar investments, looking at factors such as relative
quality of the investment and average return for an investment
category. Using this outside view, the group saw that its median
expected rate of return was more than double that of the most
similar investments (exhibit).
129
Q4 2018
Blockchain
Exhibit 1 of 1
Exhibit
Private-equity teams built a more accurate forecast using the outside view.
50
19 20
sources of information.
had limited experience in the diagnostics field and in medical sales and
distribution. But based on an inside view, senior management placed
a big bet on Hounsfield’s proprietary technology and sought to build the
required capabilities in-house.
It took about five years for EMI to release its first scanner; in that time,
competitors with similar X-ray technologies as well as broader, more
established sales and distribution infrastructures overtook EMI. In seeking
to do everything alone, EMI suffered losses and eventually left the
market. Building a reference class would have allowed the company to not
only predict success in the market for CT scanners but also develop a
more effective go-to-market strategy.3
Compared with EMI’s situation, finding a reference class for a film project
might seem like a no-brainer: you figure there will be lots of movies in the
same genre, with similar story lines and stars, to compare with the focal
project. And yet, when we asked the head of a major motion-picture studio
how many analogues he typically used to forecast movie revenue, he
1 Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo, “Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk
taking,” Management Science, January 1993, Volume 39, Number 1, pp. 17–31.
2 The power curve is a global distribution of companies’ economic profit. For more on this concept,
see The Strategy & Corporate Finance blog, “Is your strategy good enough to move you up on the
power curve?,” blog entry by Martin Hirt, January 30, 2018, McKinsey.com.
3 John T. Horn, Dan P. Lovallo, and S. Patrick Viguerie, “Beating the odds in market entry,” McKinsey
projects: Two models for explaining and preventing executive disaster,” California Management Review,
Winter 2009, Volume 51, Number 2, pp. 170–93.
Tim Koller is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, and Dan Lovallo, an alumnus
of McKinsey’s San Francisco office, is a professor of business strategy at the University
of Sydney.
131
Last Laugh
For more on the foundations of great design, see “The business value of design,” on page 58.
McKinsey.com/quarterly