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    Assignment 1

    Uploaded by

    Mohammed Bahysmi
    The document discusses four forecasting problems: 1) Choosing between a linear trend equation and naive approach to forecast weekly engine block sales based on given data 2) Using regression analysis to predict weekly engine block production from a company based on past data 3) Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast a company's income for the next month based on past monthly income data 4) Using a multiplicative seasonal model to forecast demand for sailboats in the upcoming spring season based on past seasonal demand data

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    Assignment 1

    Uploaded by

    Mohammed Bahysmi
    50 views2 pages
    The document discusses four forecasting problems: 1) Choosing between a linear trend equation and naive approach to forecast weekly engine block sales based on given data 2) Using regression analysis to predict weekly engine block production from a company based on past data 3) Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast a company's income for the next month based on past monthly income data 4) Using a multiplicative seasonal model to forecast demand for sailboats in the upcoming spring season based on past seasonal demand data

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    The document discusses four forecasting problems: 1) Choosing between a linear trend equation and naive approach to forecast weekly engine block sales based on given data 2) Using regression analysis to predict weekly engine block production from a company based on past data 3) Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast a company's income for the next month based on past monthly income data 4) Using a multiplicative seasonal model to forecast demand for sailboats in the upcoming spring season based on past seasonal demand data

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    50 views2 pages

    Assignment 1

    Uploaded by

    Mohammed Bahysmi
    The document discusses four forecasting problems: 1) Choosing between a linear trend equation and naive approach to forecast weekly engine block sales based on given data 2) Using regression analysis to predict weekly engine block production from a company based on past data 3) Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast a company's income for the next month based on past monthly income data 4) Using a multiplicative seasonal model to forecast demand for sailboats in the upcoming spring season based on past seasonal demand data

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 2

    Assignment 1

    a) An analyst must choose between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of
    engine block: a linear trend equation and naive approach. The linear trend equation which was
    developed using data from period 1 through 10 is Ft = 124 + 2t. Based on the data for periods
    11 through 20 as shown in Table 1, suggest the most appropriate approach, which provide the
    greater accuracy.
    Table 1
    t 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Units sold 147 148 151 145 155 152 155 157 160 165

    b) Table 2 indicates number of engine block produced by CK Engineering for the past 10 weeks.
    Using regression analysis, predict the number of engine block CK Engineering will make in
    week 11. Justify how well the model fits the data.

    Table 2

    Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    Number of
    Engine 36 33 40 41 40 55 60 54 58 61
    Blocks

    c) Income at Yunes Co. for the period February to July was as in Table 3. Use trend-adjusted
    exponential smoothing to forecast the firm’s August income. Assume taht the initial forecast
    average for February is $65,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0 (α=0.1, β=0.2).

    Table 3
    Month Feb. March Apr. May June July
    Income
    70.0 68.5 64.8 71.7 71.3 72.8
    (in thousand)
    d) Actual demand for George’s sailboats during each of the past four seasons was as in Table 4.
    Goergr has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 5,600 boats.
    Based on this data and the multiplicative seasonal model, determine the demand level for
    George’s sailboats in the spring of year 5.
    Table 4
    Year
    Season 1 2 3 4
    Winter 1400 1200 1000 900
    Spring 1500 1400 1600 1500
    Summer 1000 2100 2000 1900
    Fall 600 750 650 500

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