Ebook LSS Green Belt PDF - Mai 2018 PDF
Ebook LSS Green Belt PDF - Mai 2018 PDF
Ebook LSS Green Belt PDF - Mai 2018 PDF
Lean
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Table of Contents
Page
Define Phase
Understanding Six Sigma…………………………..………………………………..….…….… 1
Six Sigma Fundamentals……………..…..………………………..………………..……..…. 22
Selecting Projects………………………….……………………………………..……..……… 42
Elements of Waste……………………..…………………………...……………………………64
Wrap Up and Action Items……………...………………………………………………….……77
Measure Phase
Welcome to Measure……………………………………………………………….……..….....83
Process Discovery………………………..………………………………………………………86
Six Sigma Statistics…………………..………………….………………………………….….135
Measurement System Analysis…………….………………………………………………....169
Process Capability ………………………...…………………………………………..……….204
Wrap Up and Action Items …………………………………………………………………….225
Analyze Phase
Welcome to Analyze……………………………………………………………………….…..231
“X” Sifting…………………………………………………..……………………….……….….234
Inferential Statistics………………………………….………………………..………….…….261
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing……………………………..……….…………………….276
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1……………………….……………..………………291
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2 ………………….…………………………….……334
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1………………………………………….……360
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 2……………………………………………….387
Wrap Up and Action Items ………………………………………..…………………....……..406
Improve Phase
Welcome to Improve……………………………….………………….…………………...…..412
Process Modeling Regression…………………………………………………..…………….415
Advanced Process Modeling………………….……………………………………………….434
Designing Experiments…………………………….…………………………..………………461
Wrap Up and Action Items………………………………………………………..……………476
Control Phase
Welcome to Control………………………………..……………………………………………482
Lean Controls……………………………………………………………………………………485
Defect Controls…………………………………………………………………….……………500
Statistical Process Control……………………….…………………………………………….512
Six Sigma Control Plans………………………...………………………………..……………552
Wrap Up and Action Items……………………...…………………………..……………….…572
Glossary
LSS Green Belt eBook v12 MT © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
LSS Green Belt eBook v12 MT © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
1
Define Phase
Understanding Six Sigma
This course has been designed to build your knowledge and capability to improve the
performance of processes and subsequently the performance of the business of which you are a
part. The focus of the course is process centric. Your role in process performance improvement
is to be through the use of the methodologies of Six Sigma, Lean and Process Management.
By taking this course you will have a well rounded and firm grasp of many of the tools of these
methodologies. We firmly believe this is one of the most effective classes you will ever take and it
is our commitment to assure that this is the case.
LSS Green Belt eBook v12 MT © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
2
The fundamentals of
this phase are Understanding Six Sigma
Definitions, History,
Strategy, Problem Definitions
Solving and Roles and
Responsibilities. History
Selecting Projects
Elements of Waste
The variation in a process refers to how tightly the various outcomes are clustered
Obviously the less variation
around the average. No process will produce the EXACT same output each time.
within a process the more
predictable the process is,
assuming the Mean is not moving all over the place. If you took the height of everyone in the class
would you expect a large variation or narrow variation?
What if you had a few professional basketball players in the room, would that widen or narrow the
variation?
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-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6
The higher the sigma level the better the performance. Six Sigma refers to a process having six
Standard Deviations between the average of the process center and the closest specification limit or
service level.
This pictorial depicts the percentage of data which falls between Standard Deviations within a Normal
Distribution. Those data points at the outer edge of the bell curve represent the greatest variation in
our process. They are the ones causing customer dissatisfaction and we want to eliminate them.
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Measure
6 Sigma
5 Sigma
4 Sigma
3 Sigma
2 Sigma
1 Sigma
Each gray dot represents one Standard Deviation. As you can see the Normal Distribution is
tight.
Said differently, if all the outputs of our process fall within six Standard Deviations from the Mean
we will have satisfied our customers nearly all the time. In fact, out of one million customer
experiences only 3.4 will have experienced a defect.
§ Defects 20
§ Defects per unit (DPU) 18
§ Parts per million (PPM) 16
§ Sigma(s) 8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Above are some key metrics used in Six Sigma. We will discuss each in detail as we go through
the course.
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This data represents the sigma level of companies. As you can see less than 10% of companies
are at a 6 sigma level!
Source: Journal for Quality and Participation, Strategy and Planning Analysis
The Six Sigma Methodology is made up of five stages: Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and
Control.
Each has highly defined steps to assure a level of discipline in seeking a solution to any variation or
defect present in a process.
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Customer Value
Management Product Process Process System Functional
Responsiveness,
Cost, Quality, = EBIT, (Enabler) , Design , Yield , Speed , Uptime , Support
Delivery
Six Sigma has not created new tools. It is the use and flow of the tools that is important. How they
are applied makes all the difference.
Six Sigma is also a business strategy that provides new knowledge and capability to employees so
they can better organize the process activity of the business, solve business problems and make
better decisions. Using Six Sigma is now a common way to solve business problems and remove
waste resulting in significant profitability improvements. In addition to improving profitability,
customer and employee satisfaction are also improved.
Six Sigma is a process measurement and management system that enables employees and
companies to take a process oriented view of the entire business. Using the various concepts
embedded in Six Sigma, key processes are identified, the outputs of these processes are
prioritized, the Capability is determined, improvements are made, if necessary, and a management
structure is put in place to assure the ongoing success of the business.
People interested in truly learning Six Sigma should be mentored and supported by seasoned Belts
who truly understand how Six Sigma works.
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Sweet Fruit
Design for Six Sigma
5+ Sigma
Bulk of Fruit
Process
3 - 5 Sigma Characterization
and Optimization
General Electric: First, what it is not. It is not a secret society, a slogan or a cliché. Six Sigma is
a highly disciplined process that helps us focus on developing and delivering near-perfect
products and services. The central idea behind Six Sigma is that if you can measure how many
"defects" you have in a process you can systematically figure out how to eliminate them and get as
close to "zero defects" as possible. Six Sigma has changed the DNA of GE — it is now the way we
work — in everything we do and in every product we design.
Honeywell: Six Sigma refers to our overall strategy to improve growth and productivity as well as
a measurement of quality. As a strategy, Six Sigma is a way for us to achieve performance
breakthroughs. It applies to every function in our company, not just those on the factory floor. That
means Marketing, Finance, Product Development, Business Services, Engineering and all the other
functions in our businesses are included.
Lockheed Martin: We have just begun to scratch the surface with the cost-saving initiative called
Six Sigma and already we have generated $64 million in savings with just the first 40 projects. Six
Sigma uses data gathering and statistical analysis to pinpoint sources of error in the organization or
products and determines precise ways to reduce the error.
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Simplistically, Six
Sigma was a • 1984 Bob Galvin of Motorola edicted the first objectives of Six Sigma
program that was – 10x levels of improvement in service and quality by 1989
generated around – 100x improvement by 1991
targeting a process – Six Sigma capability by 1992
Mean (average) six – Bill Smith, an engineer from Motorola, is the person credited as the father
Standard Deviations of Six Sigma
away from the
• 1984 Texas Instruments and ABB Work closely with Motorola to
closest specification
further develop Six Sigma
limit.
• 1994 Application experts leave Motorola
By using the process
• 1995 AlliedSignal begins Six Sigma initiative as directed by Larry
Standard Deviation
Bossidy
to determine the
location of the Mean – Captured the interest of Wall Street
the results could be • 1995 General Electric, led by Jack Welch, began the most widespread
predicted at 3.4 undertaking of Six Sigma even attempted
defects per million by • 1997 To present Six Sigma spans industries worldwide
the use of statistics.
There is an allowance for the process Mean to shift 1.5 Standard Deviations. This number is another
academic and esoteric controversial issue not worth debating. We will get into a discussion of this
number later in the course.
Today the Define Phase is an important aspect to the methodology. Motorola was a mature culture
from a process perspective and did not necessarily have a need for the Define Phase.
Most organizations today DEFINITELY need it to properly approach improvement projects.
As you will learn, properly defining a problem or an opportunity is key to putting you on the right
track to solve it or take advantage of it.
LSS Green Belt eBook v12 MT © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
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Estimate COPQ
Charter Project
Measure
N Estimate COPQ
Approved
Project Recommend Project Focus
Focus
Y
Create Team
Charter Team
LSS Green Belt eBook v12 MT © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
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Listed here are the type of Define Phase deliverables that will be reviewed by this course.
By the end of this course you should understand what would be necessary to provide these
deliverables in a presentation.
Six Sigma as a breakthrough strategy to process improvement. Many people mistakenly assume
that Six Sigma only works in manufacturing type operations. That is categorically untrue. It
applies to all aspects of either a product or service based business.
Wherever there are processes Six Sigma can improve their performance.
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Requirement Requirement
or or
LSL
Target USL
Conventional strategy was to create a product or service that met certain specifications.
§ Assumed if products and services were of good quality then their
performance standards were correct.
§ Rework was required to ensure final quality.
§ Efforts were overlooked and unquantified (time, money, equipment
usage, etc).
The conventional strategy was to create a product or service that met certain specifications. It was
assumed if products and services were of good quality their performance standards were correct
irrespective of how they were met.
Using this strategy often required rework to ensure final quality or the rejection and trashing of some
products and the efforts to accomplish this “inspect in quality” were largely overlooked and un-
quantified.
You will see more about this issues when we investigate the Hidden Factory.
Problem Solving Strategy
Y=f (Xi)
This simply states that Y is a function of the
X’s. In other words Y is dictated by the X’s.
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Y = f(x) is a key concept you must fully understand and remember. It is a fundamental principle to
the Six Sigma methodology. In its simplest form it is called “cause and effect”. In its more robust
mathematical form it is called “Y is equal to a function of X”. In the mathematical sense it is data
driven and precise as you would expect in a Six Sigma approach. Six Sigma will always refer to an
output or the result as a Y and will always refer to an input that is associated with or creates the
output as an X.
Another way of saying this is the output is dependent on the inputs that create it through the
blending that occurs from the activities in the process. Since the output is dependent on the inputs
we cannot directly control it, we can only monitor it.
Example
Y = f (Xi)
Which process variables (causes) have critical impact on the
output (effect)?
Crusher Yield
= f ( Feed, Speed,Material
Type , Wear , Lubricant )
Tool
Time to Close
= f (Balance
Trial
,Accounts,Accounts,Memos,Mistakes,X )
Correct Sub Credit Entry
n
Applied
Y = f(x) is a transfer function tool to determine what input variables (X’s) affect the output
responses (Y’s). The observed output is a function of the inputs. The difficulty lies in determining
which X’s are critical to describe the behavior of the Y’s.
In the Measure Phase we will introduce a tool to manage the long list of input variable and their
relationship to the output responses. It is the X-Y Matrix or Input-Output Matrix.
LSS Green Belt eBook v12 MT © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
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Y = f(X) Exercise
Exercise:
Espresso =f ( X1 , X , X , X , X )
2 3 4 n
Notes
LSS Green Belt eBook v12 MT © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
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(X6)
(X2)
Archimedes not
shown actual size!
As you go through the application of DMAIC you will have a goal to find the Root Causes to the
problem you are solving. Remember a vital component of problem solving is cause and effect
thinking or Y = f(X). To aid you in doing so you should create a visual model of this goal as a funnel
- a funnel that takes in a large number of the “trivial many contributors” and narrows them to the
“vital few contributors” by the time they leave the bottom.
At the top of the funnel you are faced with all possible causes - the “vital few” mixed in with the
“trivial many.” When you work an improvement effort or project you must start with this type of
thinking. You will use various tools and techniques to brainstorm possible causes of performance
problems and operational issues based on data from the process. In summary, you will be applying
an appropriate set of “analytical methods” and the “Y is a function of X” thinking to transform data
into the useful knowledge needed to find the solution to the problem.
It is a mathematical fact 80 percent of a problem is related to six or less causes; the X’s. In most
cases it is between one and three. The goal is to find the one to three Critical X’s from the many
potential causes when we start an improvement project. In a nutshell this is how the Six Sigma
methodology works.
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Breakthrough Strategy
Bad 6-Sigma
Breakthrough UCL
Old Standard
Performance
LCL
UCL
New Standard
LCL
Good
By utilizing the DMAIC problem solving methodology to identify and optimize the vital few variables we
will realize sustainable breakthrough performance as opposed to incremental improvements or, even
worse, temporary and non-sustainable improvement..
The image above shows how after applying the Six Sigma tools variation stays within the specification
limits.
The
foundation of
Six Sigma
VOC is Customer Driven
requires
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MBB
§ Executive Leadership
§ Champion/Process Owner
Black Belts § Master Black Belt
§ Black Belt
§ Green Belt
Green Belts § Yellow Belt
Yellow Belts
Just like a winning sports team various people who have specific positions or roles have defined
responsibilities. Six Sigma is similar - each person is trained to be able to understand and perform the
responsibilities of their role. The end result is a knowledgeable and well coordinated winning business
team.
The division of training and skill will be delivered across the organization in such a way as to provide a
specialist: it is based on an assistant structure much as you would find in the medical field between a
Doctor, 1st year Intern, Nurse, etc. The following pages discuss these roles in more detail.
In addition to the roles described herein all other employees are expected to have essential Six Sigma
skills for process improvement and to provide assistance and support for the goals of Six Sigma and
the company.
Six Sigma has been designed to provide a structure with various skill levels and knowledge for all
members of the organization. Each group has well defined roles and responsibilities and
communication links. When all participants are actively applying Six Sigma principles the company
operates and performs at a higher level. This leads to increased profitability and greater employee and
customer satisfaction.
Executive Leadership
Not all Six Sigma deployments are driven from the top by executive leadership. The data is clear,
however, that those deployments that are driven by executive management are much more successful
than those that are not.
§ Makes decision to implement the Six Sigma initiative and develop accountability
method
§ Sets meaningful goals and objectives for the corporation
§ Sets performance expectations for the corporation
§ Ensures continuous improvement in the process
§ Eliminates barriers
The executive leadership owns the vision for the business, they provide sponsorship and set
expectations for the results from Six Sigma. They enable the organization to apply Six Sigma and then
monitor the progress against expectations.
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Champion/Process Owner
Champions identify and select the most meaningful projects to work on, they provide guidance to
the Six Sigma Belt and open the doors for the belts to apply the process improvement technologies.
Champions are responsible for functional business activities and to provide business deliverables to
either internal or external customers. They are in a position to be able to recognize problem areas of
the business, define improvement projects, assign projects to appropriate individuals, review projects
and support their completion. They are also responsible for a business roadmap and employee
training plan to achieve the goals and objectives of Six Sigma within their area of accountability.
MBB should be well versed with all aspects of Six Sigma, from technical applications to Project
Management. MBBs need to have the ability to influence change and motivate others.
A Master Black Belt is a technical expert, a “go to” person for the Six Sigma methodology. Master
Black Belts mentor Black Belts and Green Belts through their projects and support Champions. In
addition to applying Six Sigma, Master Black Belts are capable of teaching others in the practices
and tools.
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Black Belt
Black Belts are application experts and work projects within the business. They should be well
versed with The Six Sigma Technologies and have the ability to drive results.
A Black Belt is a project team leader, working full time to solve problems under the direction of a
Champion, and with technical support from the Master Black Belt. Black Belts work on projects
that are relatively complex and require significant focus to resolve. Most Black Belts conduct an
average of 4 to 6 projects a year -- projects that usually have a high financial return for the
company.
Green Belt
Green Belts are practitioners of Six Sigma Methodology and typically work within their
functional areas or support larger Black Belt Projects.
Green Belts are capable of solving problems within their local span of control. Green Belts remain in
their current positions, but apply the concepts and principles of Six Sigma to their job environment.
Green Belts usually address less complex problems than Black Belts and perform at least two projects
per year. They may also be a part of a Black Belt’s team, helping to complete the Black Belt project.
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Yellow Belt
Training as a Six Sigma Belt can be one of the most rewarding undertakings of your career and
one of the most difficult.
You can expect to experience:
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Organizational Behaviors
All players in the Six Sigma process must be willing to step up and act according to the Six Sigma
set of behaviors.
§ Leadership by example: “walk the talk”
Six Sigma is a system of improvement. It develops people skills and capability for the participants. It
consists of proven set of analytical tools, project-management techniques, reporting methods and
management methods combined to form a powerful problem-solving and business-improvement
methodology. It solves problems, resulting in increased revenue and profit, and business growth.
The strategy of Six Sigma is a data-driven, structured approach to managing processes, quantifying
problems, and removing waste by reducing variation and eliminating defects.
The tactics of Six Sigma are the use of process exploration and analysis tools to solve the equation
of Y = f(X) and to translate this into a controllable practical solution.
As a performance goal a Six Sigma process produces less than 3.4 defects per million
opportunities. As a business goal Six Sigma can achieve 40% or more improvement in the
profitability of a company. It is a philosophy that every process can be improved, at breakthrough
levels.
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Notes
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Define Phase
Six Sigma Fundamentals
Now we will continue in the Define Phase with the “Six Sigma Fundamentals”.
The output of the Define Phase is a well developed and articulated project. It has been correctly
stated that 50% of the success of a project is dependent on how well the effort has been defined.
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PPro
roce
cessss
M
Meetr
trics
ics
S e le ctin g P r o je cts
Ele m e n ts o f W a s te
What is a Process?
What is a Process? Many people do or conduct a process everyday but do they really think of it as a
process? Our definition of a process is a repetitive and systematic series of steps or activities where
inputs are modified to achieve a value-added output.
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Examples of Processes
We go through processes everyday. Below are some examples of processes. Can you
think of other processes within your daily environment?
§ Injection molding § Recruiting staff
§ Decanting solutions § Processing invoices
§ Filling vial/bottles § Conducting research
§ Crushing ore § Opening accounts
§ Refining oil § Reconciling accounts
§ Turning screws § Filling out a timesheet
§ Building custom homes § Distributing mail
§ Paving roads § Backing up files
§ Changing a tire § Issuing purchase orders
Process Maps
Process Mapping, also called The purpose of a Process Map is to:
flowcharting, is a technique to – Identify the complexity of the process
visualize the tasks, activities and – Communicate the focus of problem solving
steps necessary to produce a product
or a service. The preferred method for Process Maps are living documents and must be changed as the
process is changed:
describing a process is to identify it
– They represent what is currently happening not what you think is
with a generic name, show the happening
workflow with a Process Map and – They should be created by the people who are closest to the process
describe its purpose with an
operational description.
Process Map
Remember a process is a blending of
inputs to produce some desired
output. The intent of each task, activity
and step is to add value, as perceived
t
ec
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There may be several interpretations of some of the Process Mapping symbols; however, just
about everyone uses these primary symbols to document processes. As you become more
practiced you will find additional symbols useful, i.e. reports, data storage etc. For now we will
start with just these symbols.
At a minimum a
high level Process One of the deliverables from the Define Phase is a high level
Map must include; Process Map which at a minimum must include:
start and stop – Start and stop points
points, all process
– All process steps
steps, all decision
points and – All decision points
directional flow. – Directional flow
– Value categories as defined here:
Also be sure to • Value Added:
include Value – Physically transforms the thing going through the process
Categories such as – Must be done right the first time
Value Added – Meaningful from the customer s perspective (is the customer willing to
(Customer Focus) pay for it?)
and Value Enabling • Value Enabling:
(External – Satisfies requirements of non-paying external stakeholders
Stakeholder focus). (government regulations)
• Non-Value Added:
– Everything else
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START B Z
SCHEDULED
N
C SCHEDULED
PHONE TIME?
Y
A Center
PHONE TIME? Z TRANSFER Y
TRANSFER
APPROPRIATE?
CALL
D N
Y
A EXAMINE NEXT NOTE
N OR RESEARCH ITEM
LOGON
TO PHONE IMMEDIATE PROVIDE
Y RESPONSE Y RESPONSE
ACCESS CASE TOOL F
D PHONE
TIME AVAILABLE? PHONE&
N WALK-IN NOTE
CALL or DATA ENDS ENTER APPROPRIATE
WALK-IN? N SSAN (#,9s,0s)
Z CALL PUT ON HOLD,
REFER TO IF EMP DATA NOT
PHONE DATA REFERENCES POPULATED, ENTER
CAPTURE BEGINS
CREATE A CASE
Y INCL CASE TYPE
ANSWER? OLD N
DETERMINE WHO DATE/TIME, &
CASE
IS INQUIRING N NEEDED BY
Y
QUERY INTERNAL UPDATE ENTRIES
ACCESS CASE TOOL HRSC SME(S) INCL OPEN DATE/TIME AUTO Y
ROUTE
ROUTE
DETERMINE NATURE N
OF CALL & CONFIRM Y
ANSWER?
UNDERSTANDING
CASE Y CLOSE CASE
N CLOSED W/ E
DATE/TIME
CASE TOOL N OFF HOLD AND ADD TO N
RECORD? C ARRANGE CALL RESEARCH
BACK PHONE DATA LIST GO TO E
TAKE ACTION
Y ENDS F or E NEXT
or
DEPENDING ON
DO RESEARCH F
B CASE
where the
process involves Fill out ACH Receive
Vendor
Produce an
Invoice
No enrollment payment End
several form
departments.
Accounting
different
Accounting
Review and
departments in
General
21.0
Process 3.0 Bank
transfer in Journey Entry
the company FRS
Reconciliation
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Notes
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An important element of Six Sigma is understanding your customer. This is called VOC or Voice of
the Customer. By doing this allows you to find all of the necessary information that is relevant
between your product/process and customer, better known as CTQ’s (Critical to Quality). The CTQ’s
are the customer requirements for satisfaction with your product or service.
There are four steps The customer’s perspective has to be foremost in the mind of the Six
Sigma Belt throughout the project cycle.
that can help you in
understanding your 1. Features
customer. These • Does the process provide what the customers expect and need?
steps focus on the • How do you know?
customer’s 2. Integrity
perspective of • Is the relationship with the customer centered on trust?
features, your • How do you know?
company’s integrity, 3. Delivery
delivery mechanisms • Does the process meet the customer s time frame?
and perceived value • How do you know?
versus cost.
4. Expense
• Does the customer perceive value for cost?
• How do you know?
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What is a Customer?
Value Chain
Careful –
each move
has many
impacts!
The disconnect from Design and Production in some organizations is a good example. If
Production is not fed the proper information from Design how can Production properly build a
product?
Every activity (process) must be linked to move from raw materials to a finished product on a store
shelf.
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What is a CTQ?
Developing CTQ’s
The steps in developing Identify Customers
CTQ’s are identifying
the customer, capturing
Step 1 • Listing
• Segmentation
the Voice of the • Prioritization
Customer and finally
validating the CTQ’s.
Capture VOC
Step 2 • Review existing performance
• Determine gaps in what you need to know
• Select tools that provide data on gaps
• Collect data on the gaps
Validate CTQ’s
Step 3 • Translate VOC to CTQ’s
• Prioritize the CTQ’s
• Set Specified Requirements
• Confirm CTQ’s with customer
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Another important tool from • COPQ stands for Cost of Poor Quality
this phase is COPQ, Cost of
Poor Quality. COPQ • As a Six Sigma Belt one of your tasks will be to estimate COPQ for
represents the financial your process
opportunity of your team’s
improvement efforts. Those • Through your process exploration and project definition work you will
opportunities are tied to develop a refined estimate of the COPQ in your project
either hard or soft savings.
• This project COPQ represents the financial opportunity of your
COPQ, is a symptom team’s improvement effort (VOB)
measured in loss of profit
(financial quantification) that • Calculating COPQ is iterative and will change as you learn more
results from errors (defects) about the process
and other inefficiencies in our
No, not that kind
processes. This is what we
of cop queue!
are seeking to eliminate!
You will use the concept of COPQ to quantify the benefits of an improvement effort and also to
determine where you might want to investigate improvement opportunities.
Prevention Costs are typically cost associated to product quality; this is viewed as an investment
companies make to ensure product quality. The final element is Appraisal costs; these are tied to
product inspection and auditing.
This idea was of COPQ was defined by Joseph Juran and is a great point of reference to gain a further
understanding.
Over time with Six Sigma, COPQ has migrated towards the reduction of waste. Waste is a better term
because it includes poor quality and all other costs that are not integral to the product or service your
company provides. Waste does not add value in the eyes of customers, employees or investors.
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COPQ - Categories
COPQ - Iceberg
Inspection
Generally speaking Warranty Recode
Rework
COPQ can be
Rejects
classified as tangible Visible Costs
(easy to see) and (Hard Costs)
intangible (hard to
see). Visually you can
think of COPQ as an Engineering change orders Lost sales
iceberg. Most of the
iceberg is below the Time value of money (less obvious) Late delivery
Expediting costs
water where you
cannot see it. More set-ups
Excess inventory
Even worse are the intangible Costs of Poor Quality. These are typically 20 to 35% of sales. If you
average the intangible and tangible costs together it is not uncommon for a company to be spending
25% of their revenue on COPQ or waste.
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Implementing Lean fundamentals can also help identify areas of COPQ. Lean will be discussed later.
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COPQ Exercise
Notes
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If you make the process better by eliminating defects you will make it faster.
If you choose to make the process faster you will have to eliminate defects to
be as fast as you can be.
If you make the process better or faster you will necessarily make it cheaper.
The metrics for all Six Sigma projects fall into one of
these three categories.
Previously we have been discussing process management and the concepts behind a process
perspective. Now we begin to discuss process improvement and the metrics used.
Cycle time
includes any wait Think of Cycle Time in terms of your product or
or queue time for transaction in the eyes of the customer of the process:
either people or
products. – It is the time required for the product or transaction to go through the
entire process from beginning to end
– It is not simply the touch time of the value-added portion of the process
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Is a process that produces 1 DPU better or worse than a process that generates 4 DPU? If you
assume equal weight on the defects, obviously a process that generates 1 DPU is better; however,
cost and severity should be considered. However the only way you can model or predict a process
is to count all the defects.
Traditional metrics
FTY is the traditional quality metric for yield
when chosen
poorly can lead the – Unfortunately it does not account for any necessary rework
team in a direction
Total Units Passed
not consistent with FTY =
the focus of the Total Units Tested
business. A metric
we must be Units in = 100 Units in = 100 Units in = 100 Units Tested = 100
Units Out = 100 Units Out = 100 Units Out = 100 Units Passed = 100
concerned about is
Process A (Grips) Process B (Shafts) Process C (Club Heads) Final Product (Set of Irons)
FTY - First Time
Yield. It is very
possible to have
100% FTY and
spend tremendous
amounts in excess
repairs and Defects Repaired Defects Repaired Defects Repaired
30 20 FTY = 100 %
rework. 40
*None of the data used herein is associated with the products shown herein. Pictures are no more than illustration to make a point to teach the concept.
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RTY = X1 * X2 * X3
Units in = 100 Units in = 100 Units in = 100
Units W/O Rework = 60 Units W/O Rework = 70 Units W/O Rework = 80 Units Passed = 34
RTY = 0.6 RTY = 0.7 RTY = 0.8 Units Tested = 100
Process A (Grips) Process B (Shafts) Process C (Club Heads) Final Product (Set of Irons)
*None of the data used herein is associated with the products shown herein. Pictures are no more than illustration to make a point to teach the concept.
Instead of relying on FTY, First Time Yield, a more efficient metric to use is RTY-Rolled Throughput
Yield. RTY has a direct correlation (relationship) to Cost of Poor Quality.
In the few organizations where data is readily available the RTY can be calculated using actual defect
data. The data provided by this calculation would be a binomial distribution since the lowest yield
possible would be zero.
As depicted here RTY is the multiplied yield of each subsequent operation throughout a process (X1 *
X2 * X3…)
RTY Estimate
Sadly, in most companies there is • In many organizations the long term data required to
not enough data to calculate RTY calculate RTY is not available. We can however estimate
in the long term. Installing data RTY using a known DPU as long as certain conditions
collection practices required to are met.
provide such data would not be • The Poisson distribution generally holds true for the
cost effective. In those instances random distribution of defects in a unit of product and is
it is necessary to utilize a the basis for the estimation.
prediction of RTY in the form of e- – The best estimate of the proportion of units containing
dpu (e to the negative dpu). no defects, or RTY, is:
The Binomial distribution is the true model for defect data but the Poisson is the
convenient model for defect data. The Poisson does a good job of predicting
when the defect rates are low.
120%
Poisson VS Binomial (r=0,n=1) Probability Yield Yield % Over
of a defect (Binomial) (Poisson) Estimated
0.0 100% 100% 0%
100%
Yield (Binomial) 0.1 90% 90% 0%
Yield (Poisson) 0.2 80% 82% 2%
Yield (RTY)
80%
0.3 70% 74% 4%
60% 0.4 60% 67% 7%
0.5 50% 61% 11%
40% 0.6 40% 55% 15%
0.7 30% 50% 20%
20% 0.8 20% 45% 25%
0.9 10% 41% 31%
0% 1.0 0% 37% 37%
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Probability of a defect
Binomial Poisson
n = number of units
r = number of predicted defects
p = probability of a defect occurrence
q =1-p
For low defect rates (p < 0.1) the Poisson approximates the Binomial fairly well.
Our goal is to predict yield. For process improvement the “yield” of interest is the ability of a process
to produce zero defects (r = 0). Question: What happens to the Poisson equation when r = 0?
Given a Unit
Basic Question: What is the likelihood of
probability that Opportunity producing a unit with zero defects?
any opportunity is
a defect = # • For the unit shown the following data
was gathered:
defects / (# units
– 60 defects observed
x # opps per unit): – 60 units processed
RTY for DPU = 1
0.368
• What is the DPU? 0.364
To what value is
0.36
Yield
the P(0)
0.356
converging? 0.352
• What is probability that any given 0.348
Note: Ultimately opportunity will be a defect? 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Chances Per Unit
this means you
need the ability to • What is the probability that any given Opportunities P(defect) P(no defect) RTY (Prob defect free unit)
track all the opportunity will NOT be a defect is: 10 0.1 0.9 0.34867844
100 0.01 0.99 0.366032341
individual defects 1000
10000
0.001
0.0001
0.999
0.9999
0.367695425
0.367861046
which occur per • The probability that all 10 opportunities 100000 0.00001 0.99999 0.367877602
1000000 0.000001 0.999999 0.367879257
unit via your data on single unit will be defect-free is:
If we extend the concept to an infinite number
collection system. of opportunities, all at a DPU of 1.0, we will
approach the value of 0.368.
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The point of this slide is to demonstrate the mathematical model used to predict the probability of an
outcome of interest. It has little practical purpose other than to acquaint the Six Sigma Belt with the
math behind the tool they are learning and let them understand there is a logical basis for the equation.
If the process had only 5 process steps with the same yield the process.
RTY would be: 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 * 0.98 = 0.903921 or 90.39%. Since our metric of
primary concern is the COPQ of this process we can say less than 9% of the time we will
be spending dollars in excess of the pre-determined standard or value added amount to
which this process is entitled.
When the number of steps in a process continually increase we then continue to multiply the yield from
each step to find the overall process yield. For the sake of simplicity let’s say we are calculating the
RTY for a process with 8 steps. Each step in our process has a yield of .98. Again, there will be a
direct correlation between the RTY and the dollars spent to correct errors in our process.
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Product A
FTY = 80%
Product B
FTY = 80%
*None of the data used herein is associated with the products shown herein. Pictures are no more than illustration to make a point to teach the concept.
If we chose only to examine the FTY in our decision making process it would be difficult to determine
the process and product on which our resources should be focused.
As you have seen there are many factors behind the final number for FTY. That is where we need to
look for process improvements.
*None of the data used herein is associated with the products shown herein. Pictures are no more than illustration to make a point to teach the concept.
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§ Describe the importance of VOC, VOB and VOE, and CTQ’s
Notes
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Define Phase
Selecting Projects
Now we will continue in the Define Phase with the “Selecting Projects”.
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Selecting Projects
Overview
The fundamentals of this phase U n d e r s ta n d in g
S ix
S ig m a
are Selecting Projects, Refining
and Defining and Financial
Evaluation. S ix
S ig m a
Fu n d a m e n ta ls
Ele m e n ts o f W a s te
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Selecting Projects
R e s p o n s ib le Fre q u e n cy
P a rty R e s o u r ce s o f
U p d a te
C hampion
(Process
P ro je ct
Six
Sig ma
Belt O wner)
&
O ng oing
C h a rte r
Master
Black
Belt
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Selecting Projects
These are some The Starting Point is defined by the Champion or Process Owner with the
examples of Business Case as the output.
Business Metrics or – These are some examples of business metrics or Key Performance Indicators
Key Performance commonly referred to as KPI’s.
Indicators. – The tree diagram is used to facilitate the process of breaking down the metric of
interest.
What metric should
you focus on…it ! EBIT
depends? What is Level 2
the project focus? ! Cycle time
What are your ! Defects Level 2
organizations
strategic goals? ! Cost Level 1
Level 2
Are Cost of Sales ! Revenue
preventing growth?
Are customer ! Complaints Level 2
complaints ! Compliance
resulting in lost
earnings? Are ! Safety
excess cycle times
and yield issues eroding market share? Is the fastest growing division of the business the
refurbishing department?
It depends because the motivation for organizations vary so much and all projects should be directly
aligned with the organizations objectives. Answer the question: What metrics are my department not
meeting? What is causing us pain?
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Selecting Projects
– Primary business measure should bear a direct line of sight with the
organization’s strategic objectives.
Be sure to start with higher level metrics, whether they are measured at the Corporate Level,
Division Level or Department Level, projects should track to the Metrics of interest within a given
area. Primary Business Measures or Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) serve as indicators of the
success of a critical objective.
Business Business
Processes Activities
Measure Measure
Primary Business
Measure
Business Business
Processes Activities
Measure Measure
Post business measures, be they a product or a service, are lower level metrics and must focus
on the end product.
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Selecting Projects
Business Business
Processes Activities
Measure Measure
Primary Business
Measure
Business Business
Processes Activities
Measure Measure
Business measures are a function of processes. These processes are usually created or enforced
by direct supervision of functional managers. Processes are usually made up of a series of activities
or automated steps.
Business Business
Processes Activities
Measure Measure
Primary Business
Measure
Business Business
Processes Activities
Measure Measure
The Activities represent the final stage of the matrix where multiple steps result in the delivery of
some output for the customer. These deliverables are set by the business and customer and
are captured within the Voice of the Customer, Voice of the Business or Voice of the Employee.
These activities are the X’s that determine the performance of the Y which is where the actual
breakthrough projects should be focused.
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Selecting Projects
As you review this statement remember the following format of what needs to be in a Business
Case: WHAT is wrong, WHERE and WHEN is it occurring, what is the BASELINE magnitude at
which it is occurring and what is it COSTING me?
You must take caution to avoid under-writing a Business Case. Your natural tendency is to write too
simplistically because you are already familiar with the problem. You must remember if you are to
enlist support and resources to solve your problem others will have to understand the context and
the significance in order to support you.
The Business Case cannot include any speculation about the cause of the problem or what actions
will be taken to solve the problem. It is important you do not attempt to solve the problem or bias the
solution at this stage. The data and the Six Sigma methodology will find the true causes and
solutions to the problem.
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Selecting Projects
You need to make sure your own Business Case captures the units of pain, the business measures, the
performance and the gaps. If this template does not seem to be clicking use your own or just free form
your Business Case ensuring it is well articulated and quantified.
Using the Excel file ‘Define Templates.xls’, Business Case, perform this exercise.
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Selecting Projects
Components:
• The
Problem
• Project
Scope
• Project
Metrics
• Prima ry
&
Secondary
• G ra phical
Displa y
of
Project
Metrics
• Prima ry
&
Secondary
• Sta nda rd
project
informa tion
• Project,
Belt
&
Process
O wner
na mes
• Sta rt
da te
&
desired
End
da te
• Division
or
Business
Unit
• Supporting
Ma ster
Bla ck
Belt
(Mentor)
• Team
Members
The Project Charter is an important document – it is the initial communication of the project. The first
phases of the Six Sigma methodology are Define and Measure. These are known as
“Characterization” phases that focus primarily on understanding and measuring the problem at hand.
Therefore some of the information in the Project Charter, such as primary and secondary metrics, can
change several times. By the time the Measure Phase is wrapping up the Project Charter should be
in its final form meaning defects and the metrics for measuring them are clear and agreed upon.
As you can see some of the information in the Project Charter is self explanatory, especially the first
section. We are going to focus on establishing the Problem Statement and determining Objective
Statement, scope and the primary and secondary metrics.
• Primary Metric – The actual measure of the defect or error in the process.
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Selecting Projects
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Selecting Projects
Pareto Analysis
Assisting you in determining what inputs are having the greatest impact on your process is the
Pareto Analysis approach.
Pareto Analysis ~
• A bar graph used to arrange information in such a manner that priorities for
process improvement can be established.
• The 80-20 theory was first developed in 1906 by Italian economist, Vilfredo
Pareto, who observed an unequal distribution of wealth and power in a
relatively small proportion of the total population. Joseph M. Juran is credited
with adapting Pareto's economic observations to business applications.
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Selecting Projects
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
The Pareto Charts are often referred to as levels. For instance the first graph is called the first level,
the next the second level and so on. Start high and drill down. Let’s look at how we interpret this and
what it means.
Let’s look at the following example.
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Selecting Projects
When your
Pareto shows up
like this your focus
is on the 80-20
which is across
the “incorrectly
routed and
dropped calls”
totaling to about
80%.
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Selecting Projects
This gives a deeper picture of which product category contributes the highest defect count.
Now we have something to work with. Notice the 80% area…. draw a line from the 80% mark
across to the cumulative percent line (Red Line) in the graph as shown here. Which cards create
the highest Defect Rates?
Now you are beginning to see what needs work to improve the performance of your project.
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Selecting Projects
Now that we have an area of focus drill down one more level.
– This chart will only use the classifications within the first bar on the
previous chart.
– Create another Pareto which will drill down to the categories within
the Card Type from the previous Pareto.
Remember to keep focused on finding the biggest bang for the buck.
Essentially this tells us there is clear direction to the major defects within the Platinum Business
Accounts.
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Selecting Projects
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Selecting Projects
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Selecting Projects
Standard financial principles should be followed at the beginning and end of the project to provide a
true measure of the improvement’s effect on the organization.
A financial representative of the firm should establish guidelines on how savings will be calculated
throughout the Lean Six Sigma deployment.
Whatever
your There are two
organization’s I
M
types of Impact:
Sustainable Impact One-Off Impact
protocol may P
A
C
One Off &
be these T
Sustainable
aspects
should be Cost Codes
accounted for C
allocate the impact
O
within any S
T Reduced Increased
Costs
Implemen-
Capital
to the appropriate
improvement C
O
Costs Revenue tation
area in the
D
project. E
S Books
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Selecting Projects
A
• Projects directly impacting the Income Statement or Cash Flow
Statement.
B
• Projects impact the Balance Sheet (working capital).
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Selecting Projects
It is highly recommended that you follow the involvement governance shown here.
This is the
one we want!
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Selecting Projects
The Benefits
Calculation Template
facilitates and aligns
with the aspects
discussed for Project
Accounting.
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Selecting Projects
Notes
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Define Phase
Elements of Waste
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Elements of Waste
Overview
The fundamentals of
this phase are the 7 U n d e r s ta n d in g
S ix
S ig m a
components of waste
and 5S.
S ix
S ig m a
Fu n d a m e n ta ls
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them. S e le ctin g
P r o je cts
Ele m e n ts o f W a s te
77
CCoom
m ppoonneennts
ts
oof
f
W
W aa sste
te
55 SS
Definition of Lean
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Elements of Waste
Lean – History
Lean Manufacturing has been going on for a very long time, however the phrase is credited to
James Womac in 1990. The small list of accomplishments noted above are primarily focused on
higher volume manufacturing.
Forms of waste include: Wasted capital (inventory), wasted material (scrap), wasted time (cycle time),
wasted human effort (inefficiency, rework) and wasted energy (energy inefficiency). Lean is a
prescriptive methodology for relatively fast improvements across a variety of processes, from
administrative to manufacturing applications. Lean enables your company to identify waste where it
exists. It also provides the tools to make improvements on the spot.
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Elements of Waste
Lean removes many forms of waste so Six Sigma can focus on eliminating variability. Variation
leads to defects, which is a major source of waste. Six Sigma is a method to make processes
more capable through the reduction of variation. Thus the symbiotic relationship between the two
methodologies.
Employees at some level have been de-sensitized to waste: “That is what we have always
done.”
Lean brings these opportunities for savings back into focus with specific approaches to finding
and eliminating waste.
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Elements of Waste
Overproduction
Examples are:
! Over-ordering materials
! Duplication of effort/reports
Producing more parts than necessary to satisfy the customer’s quantity demand thus leading to
idle capital invested in inventory.
Producing parts at a rate faster than required such that a work-in-process queue is created –
again, idle capital.
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Elements of Waste
Correction
Examples are:
! Misspelled words in
communications
! Materials or labor
discarded during
production
Eliminate erors!!
Waste of Correction includes the waste of handling
and fixing mistakes. This is common in both
manufacturing and transactional settings.
Correcting or repairing a defect in materials or parts adds unnecessary costs because of additional
equipment and labor expenses. An example is the labor cost of scheduling employees to work
overtime to rework defects.
Inventory
! Transactions not
processed
! Over-ordering materials
consumed in-house
! Over-ordering raw
materials – just in case
Inventory is a drain on an organization’s overhead. The greater the inventory, the higher the
overhead costs become. If quality issues arise and inventory is not minimized, defective material is
hidden in finished goods.
To remain flexible to customer requirements and to control product variation we must minimize
inventory. Excess inventory masks unacceptable change-over times, excessive downtime, operator
inefficiency and a lack of organizational sense of urgency to produce product.
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Elements of Waste
Motion
Examples are:
! Extra steps
Any movement of people or machinery that does not contribute added value to the product; i.e.
programming delay times and excessive walking distance between operations.
Overprocessing
! Communications, reports,
emails, contracts, etc.
containing more than the
necessary points (briefer is
better)
Waste of Overprocessing relates to over-
processing anything that may not be adding ! Voice mails that are too
value in the eyes of the customer. long
Processing work that has no connection to advancing the line or improving the quality of the product.
Examples include typing memos that could be had written or painting components or fixtures internal
to the equipment.
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Elements of Waste
Conveyance
! Distance traveled
Conveyance is incidental, required action that does not directly contribute value to the product.
Perhaps it must be moved however, the time and expense incurred does not produce product or
service characteristics that customers see.
It is vital to avoid conveyance unless it is supplying items when and where they are needed (i.e.
just-in-time delivery).
Waiting
Idle time between operations or events; i.e. an employee waiting for machine cycle to finish or a
machine waiting for the operator to load new parts.
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Elements of Waste
– Overproduction ___________________
– Correction ___________________
– Inventory ___________________
– Motion ___________________
– Overprocessing ___________________
– Conveyance ___________________
– Waiting ___________________
Notes
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Elements of Waste
5S – The Basics
The term “5S” derives from the Japanese words for five practices leading to a clean and
manageable work area. The five “S” are:
‘Seiri' means to separate needed tools, parts and instructions from unneeded materials and to
remove the latter.
'Seiton' means to neatly arrange and identify parts and tools for ease of use.
'Seiso' means to conduct a cleanup campaign.
'Seiketsu' means to conduct seiri, seiton and seiso at frequent, indeed daily, intervals to maintain a
workplace in perfect condition.
'Shitsuke' means to form the habit of always following the first four S’s.
Simply put, 5S means the workplace is clean, there is a place for everything and everything is in its
place. The 5S will create a work place that is suitable for and will stimulate high quality and high
productivity work. Additionally it will make the workplace more comfortable and a place of which you
can be proud.
Developed in Japan, this method assume no effective and quality job can be done without clean and
safe environment and without behavioral rules.
The 5S approach allows you to set up a well adapted and functional work environment, ruled by
simple yet effective rules. 5S deployment is done in a logical and progressive way. The first three S’s
are workplace actions, while the last two are sustaining and progress actions.
It is recommended to start implementing 5S in a well chosen pilot workspace or pilot process and
spread to the others step by step.
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Elements of Waste
English Translation
There have been many attempts to force 5 English “S” words to maintain the original intent of 5S
from Japanese. Listed below are typical English words used to translate:
1. Sort (Seiri)
2. Straighten or Systematically Arrange (Seiton)
3. Shine or Spic and Span (Seiso)
4. Standardize (Seiketsu)
5. Sustain or Self-Discipline (Shitsuke)
Straighten
Shine
Sort
5S
Visual sweep of areas,
Identify necessary items and remove eliminate dirt, dust and
unnecessary ones, use time management. scrap. Make workplace
shine.
Self-Discipline
Standardize
Make 5S strong in
Work to standards,
habit. Make problems
maintain standards, wear
appear and solve them.
safety equipment.
Regardless of which “S” words you use the intent is clear: Organize the workplace, keep it neat
and clean, maintain standardized conditions and instill the discipline required to enable each
individual to achieve and maintain a world class work environment.
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Elements of Waste
5S Exercise
• Sort ____________________
• Straighten ____________________
• Shine ____________________
• Standardize ____________________
• Self-Discipline ____________________
Notes
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Elements of Waste
§ Describe 5S
§ Provide examples of how Lean Principles can affect your area
Notes
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Define Phase
Wrap Up and Action Items
Now we will conclude the Define Phase with “Wrap Up and Action Items”.
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DMAIC Roadmap
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
N Estimate COPQ
Approved
Project Recommend Project Focus
Focus
Y
Create Team
Charter Team
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Define Questions
Step One: Project Selection, Project Definition And Stakeholder Identification
Project Charter
• What is the Problem Statement? Objective?
• Is the Business Case developed?
• What is the primary metric?
• What are the secondary metrics?
• Why did you choose these?
• What are the benefits?
• Have the benefits been quantified? It not, when will this be done?
Date:____________________________
• Who is the customer (internal/external)?
• Has the COPQ been identified?
• Has the controller’s office been involved in these calculations?
• Who are the members on your team?
• Does anyone require additional training to be fully effective on the team?
Voice of the Customer (VOC) and SIPOC defined
• Voice of the Customer identified?
• Key issues with stakeholders identified?
• VOC requirements identified?
• Business Case data gathered, verified and displayed?
Step Two: Process Exploration
Processes Defined and High Level Process Map
• Are the critical processes defined and decision points identified?
• Are all the key attributes of the process defined?
• Do you have a high level process map?
• Who was involved in its development?
General Questions
• Are there any issues/barriers that prevent you from completing this phase?
• Do you have adequate resources to complete the project?
• Have you completed your initial Define report out presentation?
These are some additional questions to ensure all the deliverables are achieved.
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§ Have started to develop a project plan to complete the action items
§ Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method within your business
Notes
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Measure Phase
Welcome to Measure
Now that we have completed Define we are going to jump into the Measure Phase.
Here you enter the world of measurement where you can discover the ultimate source of
problem-solving power: data. Process improvement is all about narrowing down to the vital few
factors that influence the behavior of a system or a process. The only way to do this is to
measure and observe your process characteristics and your critical-to-quality characteristics.
Measurement is generally the most difficult and time-consuming phase in the DMAIC
methodology. But if you do it well, and right the first time, you will save your self a lot of trouble
later and maximize your chance of improvement.
Welcome to the Measure Phase - will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
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Welcome to Measure
Overview
PProc
roces
esss
Dis
Disccovery
overy
SS ix
S
ix
S ig
igma
S
ma
S tatis
tatistic
ticss
Meas
Measurement
S
urement
S ys
ys tem
Analys
tem
Analys is
is
PProc
roces
esss
C
C apability
apability
DMAIC Roadmap
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
Here is the overview of the DMAIC process. Within measure we are going to start getting into
details about process performance, measurement systems and variable prioritization.
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Welcome to Measure
Select the Vital Few X’s Causing Problems (X-Y Matrix, FMEA)
Y
Repeatable &
Reproducible?
N
This provides a process look at putting “Measure” to work. By the time we complete this phase you
will have a thorough understanding of the various Measure Phase concepts.
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Measure Phase
Process Discovery
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Process Discovery
Overview
Welcome to Measure
Process Discovery
FMEA
Process Capability
The purpose of this module is highlighted above. We will review tools to help facilitate Process
Discovery.
This will be a lengthy step as it requires a full characterization of your selected process.
On the next lesson page we will help you develop a visual and mental model that will give you
leverage in finding the causes to any problem.
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Process Discovery
The
The Y
Y
The or
Problem
The X
X’ss Problem
Condition
(Causes)
l
Material Measurement Environment Categories
You will need to use brainstorming techniques to identify all possible problems and their causes.
Brainstorming techniques work because the knowledge and ideas of two or more persons is always
greater than that of any one person.
Brainstorming will generate a large number of ideas or possibilities in a relatively short time.
Brainstorming tools are meant for teams, but can be used at the individual level also. Brainstorming
will be a primary input for other improvement and analytical tools you will use.
You will learn two excellent brainstorming techniques, Cause and Effect Diagrams and affinity
diagrams. Cause and Effect Diagrams are also called Fishbone Diagrams because of their
appearance and sometimes called Ishikawa diagrams after their inventor.
In a brainstorming session ideas are expressed by those in the session and written down without
debate or challenge. The general steps of a brainstorming sessions are:
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Process Discovery
CauseCause
and Effect
and Effect
Diagram
Diagram
People
People Machine
Machine Method
Method
The
TheYY
Theor
Problem
The X
X’ss Problem
Problem
Condition
(Causes)
l
Material
Material Measurement
Measurement Environment
Environment
Categories
Categories
A Cause and Effect Diagram is a composition of lines and words representing a meaningful
relationship between an effect, or condition, and its causes. To focus the effort and facilitate thought,
the legs of the diagram are given categorical headings. Two common templates for the headings
are for product related and transactional related efforts. Transactional is meant for processes where
there is no traditional or physical product; rather it is more like an administrative process.
Transactional processes are characterized as processes dealing with forms, ideas, people,
decisions and services. You would most likely use the product template for determining the cause of
burnt pizza and use the transactional template if you were trying to reduce order defects from the
order taking process. A third approach is to identify all categories as you best perceive them.
When performing a Cause and Effect Diagram keep drilling down, always asking why, until you find
the Root Causes of the problem. Start with one category and stay with it until you have exhausted
all possible inputs then move to the next category. The next step is to rank each potential cause by
its likelihood of being the Root Cause. Rank it by the most likely as a 1, second most likely as a 2
and so on. This make take some time, you may even have to create sub-sections like 2a, 2b, 2c,
etc. Then come back to reorder the sub-section in to the larger ranking. This is your first attempt at
really finding the Y = f(X); remember the funnel? The top X’s have the potential to be the Critical X’s,
those X’s which exert the most influence on the output Y.
Finally you will need to determine if each cause is a control or a Noise Factor. This as you know is
a requirement for the characterization of the process. Next we will explain the meaning and
methods of using some of the common categories.
There may be several interpretations of some of the process mapping symbols; however, just about
everyone uses these primary symbols to document processes. As you become more practiced you
will find additional symbols useful, i.e. reports, data storage etc. For now we will start with just these
symbols.
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The Measurement category groups Root Causes related to the measurement and
measuring of a process activity or output:
Examples of questions to ask:
• Is there a metric issue? Measurement
• Is there a valid measurement
system? Is the data good
enough?
• Is data readily available?
Y
The People category groups Root Causes related to people, staffing and
Organizational structure:
Examples of questions to ask: People
• Are people trained, do they
have the right skills?
• Is there person to person
Y
variation?
• Are people over-worked, under-worked?
The Method category groups Root Causes related to how the work is done, the
way the process is actually conducted:
The Materials category groups Root Causes related to parts, supplies, forms or
information needed to execute a process:
Materials
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Process Discovery
The Equipment category groups Root Causes related to tools used in the
process:
Examples of questions to ask:
• Have machines been serviced recently,
what is the uptime? Y
• Have tools been properly maintained?
• Is there variation?
Equipment
The Environment (a.k.a. Mother Nature) category groups Root Causes related to
our work environment, market conditions and regulatory issues.
Examples of questions to ask:
• Is the workplace safe and comfortable?
• Are outside regulations impacting the Y
business?
• Does the company culture aid the
process?
Environment
For each of the X’s identified in the diagram classify them as follows:
– Controllable: C (Knowledge)
– Procedural: P (People, Systems)
– Noise: N (External or Uncontrollable)
The Cause and Effect Diagram is an organized way to approach brainstorming. This approach allows
us to further organize ourselves by classifying the X’s into Controllable, Procedural or Noise types.
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Process Discovery
Measurement
Capability (C) Adherence to procedure (P) Specifications (C)
Chemical
Startup inspection (P) Room Humidity (N) Column Capability (C) Purity
Handling (P) RM Supply in Market (N) Nozzle type (C)
Purification Method (P) Shipping Methods (C) Temp controller (C)
This example of the Cause and Effect Diagram is of chemical purity. Notice how the input variables for
each branch are classified as Controllable, Procedural and Noise.
The Fishbone Diagram shown here for surface flaws was generated in MINITAB™. We will now
review the various steps for creating a Cause and Effect Diagram using the MINITAB™
statistical software package.
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Process Discovery
Open the MINITAB™ Project Measure Data Sets.mpj and select the worksheet
Surfaceflaws.mtw .
Take a few moments to study the worksheet. Notice the first 6 columns are the classic bones for a
Fishbone. Each subsequent column is labeled for one of the X’s listed in one of the first six columns
and are the secondary bones.
After you have entered the Labels click on the first field under the “Causes” column to bring up the
list of branches on the left hand side. Next double-click the first branch name on the left hand side to
move “C1 Man” underneath “Causes”.
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Process Discovery
To continue identifying
the secondary
branches select the
button, “Sub…” to the
right of the “Label”
column.
In order to adjust the Cause and Effect Diagram so the main causes titles are not rolled grab the line
with your mouse and slide the entire bone.
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Process Discovery
1. Retrieve the high level Process Map for your project
and use it to complete a Fishbone, if possible include
your project team.
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Process Discovery
t
ec
Start Step A Step B Step C Step D Finish
sp
In
Process Mapping, also called flowcharting, is a technique to visualize the tasks, activities and steps
necessary to produce a product or a service. The preferred method for describing a process is to
identify it with a generic name, show the workflow with a Process Map and describe its purpose with
an operational description.
Remember a process is a blending of inputs to produce some desired output. The intent of each task,
activity and step is to add value, as perceived by the customer, to the product or service we are
producing. You cannot discover if this is the case until you have adequately mapped the process.
Individual maps developed by Process Members form the basis of Process Management. The
individual processes are linked together to see the total effort and flow for meeting business and
customer needs.
In order to improve or to correctly manage a process, you must be able to describe it in a way that
can be easily understood. That is why the first activity of the Measure Phase is to adequately
describe the process under investigation. Process Mapping is the most important and powerful tool
you will use to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of a process.
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Process Mapping
There are usually three views of a process: There are usually three views
of a process: The first view is
“what you think the process
is” in terms of its size, how
1 2 3 work flows and how well the
What you THINK it is.. What it ACTUALLY is.. What it SHOULD be.. process works. In virtually all
cases the extent and difficulty
of performing the process is
understated.
Then there is the third view: “what it should be”. This is the result of process improvement activities.
It is precisely what you will be doing to the key process you have selected during the weeks between
classes. As a result of your project you will either have created the “what it should be” or will be well
on your way to getting there. In order to find the “what it should be” process, you have to learn
process mapping and literally “walk” the process via a team method to document how it works. This
is a much easier task then you might suspect, as you will learn over the next several lessons.
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There may be several interpretations of some of the Process Mapping symbols; however, just
about everyone uses these primary symbols to document processes. As you become more
practiced you will find additional symbols useful, i.e. reports, data storage etc. For now we will
start with just these symbols.
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Process Discovery
Pizza
Dough
No
Take Order Add Place in Observe Check Yes Remove
from Cashier Ingredients Oven Frequently if Done from Oven 1
Start New
Pizza
Scrap
No
Tape
Pizza Place in Put on
1 Correct Box
Order on Delivery Rack
Yes Box
Before Process Mapping starts you have to learn about the different level of detail on a Process
Map and the different types of Process Maps. Fortunately these have been well categorized and
are easy to understand.
There are three different levels of Process Maps. You will need to use all three levels and you
most likely will use them in order from the macro map to the micro map. The macro map contains
the least level of detail with increasing detail as you get to the micro map. You should think of and
use the level of Process Maps in a way similar to the way you would use road maps. For example,
if you want to find a country you look at the world map. If you want to find a city in that country you
look at the country map. If you want to find a street address in the city you use a city map. This is
the general rule or approach for using Process Maps.
The Macro Process Map, what is called the Level 1 Map, shows the big picture. You will use this to
orient yourself to the way a product or service is created. It will also help you to better see which
major step of the process is most likely related to the problem you have and it will put the various
processes you are associated with in the context of the larger whole. A Level 1 PFM, sometimes
called the “management” level, is a high-level process map having the following characteristics:
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Process Discovery
The next level is generically called the Process Map. You will refer to it as a Level 2 Map and it
identifies the major process steps from the workers point of view. In the pizza example above these
are the steps the pizza chef takes to make, cook and box the pizza for delivery. It gives you a good
idea of what is going on in this process but could can you fully understand why the process
performs the way it does in terms of efficiency and effectiveness, could you improve the process
with the level of knowledge from this map?
Probably not. You are going to need a Level 3 Map called the Micro Process Map. It is also known
as the improvement view of a process. There is however a lot of value in the Level 2 Map because
it is helping you to “see” and understand how work gets done, who does it, etc. It is a necessary
stepping stone to arriving at improved performance.
Next we will introduce the four different types of Process Maps. You will want to use different types
of Process Maps, to better help see, understand and communicate the way processes behave.
There are four types of Process Maps that you will use. They are the Linear Flow Map, the
deployment or Swim Lane Flow Map, the S-I-P-0-C Map (pronounced sigh-pock) and the Value
Stream Map.
As the name states this diagram shows the process steps in a sequential flow, generally ordered
from an upper left corner of the map towards the right side.
Take
Order
Pizza Box
Cook
Make Cook
Pizza Pizza Correct Pizza
Deliverer
Deliver
Pizza
The value of the Swim Lane Map is that is shows you who or which department is responsible for
the steps in a process. A timeline can be added to show how long it takes each group to perform
their work. Also each time work moves across a Swim Lane there is a Supplier – Customer
interaction. This is usually where bottlenecks and queues form.
While they all show how work gets done, they emphasize different aspects of process flow and
provide you with alternative ways to understand the behavior of the process so you can do
something about it. The Linear Flow Map is the most traditional and is usually where most start the
mapping effort.
The Swim Lane Map adds another dimension of knowledge to the picture of the process: Now you
can see which department area or person is responsible. You can use the various types of maps in
the form of any of the three levels of a Process Map.
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Process Discovery
Return
for
rework
Rework
Scrap
Review &
Configure
I.T.
approve
& install
standard
Supplier Procurement Top Mgt/ Finance
Review &
Issue
approve
payment
CAAR
Corporate
Review &
approve
CAAR
Acquire
equipment
Supplier Supplier
Ships Paid
construct either a Level 1 ATT Phones Pizza type See Below Price Cook Complete call < 3 min
Office Depot Accounting Order to Cook < 1 minute
or Level 2 Map because
Size Order confirmation
TI Calculators Quantity Bake order Complete bake order
Other products
pertinent data that is Phone number
Name
You may also add a Order Phone Order Order Price Phone Cook
requirements section
to both the supplier side and the customer side to capture the expectations for the inputs and the
outputs of the process. Doing a SIPOC is a great building block to creating the Level 3 Micro
Process Map. The two really compliment each other and give you the power to make improvements
to the process.
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Process Discovery
to understand -Computer
-1 Person
-Department
Assignments
-Guidelines
-1 Person
-Computer
-Printer I
-Envelops
-Postage
Size of work queue or I I I I
numerous inventory
-1 Person -1 Person -1 Person
many other Days of Work in 15 sec 75 sec 255 sec 15 sec 100 sec
queue 2.65 days 20.47 days 16.9 days 1.60 days 7.57 days
important data.
Process Performance
While this Process Metrics IPY = 0.92 IPY = .94 IPY = .59 IPY = .96 IPY = .96
Map level is at the Defects = 0.08
RTY = .92
Defects = .06
RTY = .86
Defects = .41
RTY = .51
Defects = .04
RTY = .49
Defects = .04
RTY = .47
macro level, the Rework = 4.0%
Material Yield = .96
Rework = 0.0
Material Yield = .94
Rework = 10%
Material Yield = .69
Rework = 0.0
Material Yield = .96
Rework = 0.0
Material Yield = .96
Metrics
provides you a lot of Cum Material Yield = .96 X .94 X .69 X .96 X .96 = .57 RTY = .92 X .94 X .59 X .96 X .96 = .47
detailed performance
data for the major The Value Stream Map is a very powerful technique to understand the
steps of the process. velocity of process transactions, queue levels and value added ratios in
It is great for finding both manufacturing and non-manufacturing processes.
bottlenecks in the
process.
Read the following background for the exercise: You have been concerned
about your ability to arrive at work on time and also the amount of time it takes
from when your alarm goes off until you arrive at work. To help you better
understand both the variation in arrival times and the total time, you decide to
create a Level 1 Macro Process Map. For purposes of this exercise, the start is
when your alarm goes off the first time and the end is when you arrive at your
work station.
Task 1 – Think about the various tasks and activities you routinely do from the
defined start to the end point of this exercise.
Task 2 – Using a pencil and paper create a Linear Process Map at the macro
level but with enough detail so you can see all the major steps of your process.
Task 3 – From the Linear Process Map, create a Swim Lane Map. For the
lanes you may use the different phases of your process, such as the wake up
phase, getting prepared, driving, etc.
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Process Discovery
advisable to deviate
somewhat. However,
you will find this a good Determine
approach to map Perform SIPOC
Add Performance
data
path to follow as it has the process
proven itself to
generate significant
results. Complete Level 1
PFM worksheet
Identify all X’s and Identify VA/NVA
Y’s steps
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Process Discovery
Process Mapping
works best with a Select the Using the Team Approach
team approach. The process 1. Start with the Level 1 Macro Process Map.
logistics of 2. Meet with process owner(s) / manager(s). Create a
performing the Level 1 Map and obtain approval to call a process
Determine
mapping meeting with process members (See team
mapping are approach to
map the workshop instructions for details on running the
somewhat different process meeting).
but it overall it takes 3. Bring key members of the process into the process
less time, the quality Complete flow workshop. If the process is large in scope hold
Level 1 PFM individual workshops for each subsection of the
of the output is worksheet
total process. Start with the beginning steps.
higher and you will Organize meeting to use the post-it note approach
have more “buy-in” to gather individual tasks and activities, based on
into the results. Input Create the macro map, that comprise the process.
Level 1 PFM
should come from 4. Immediately assemble the information provided into
people familiar with a Process Map.
all stages of process. Define the 5. Verify the PFM by discussing it with process owners
scope for and by observing the actual process from beginning
the Level 2
PFM to end.
Where appropriate the team should include line individuals, supervisors, design engineers, process
engineers, process technicians, maintenance, etc. The team process mapping workshop is where it
all comes together.
In summary, after adding to and agreeing to the Macro Process Map the team process mapping
approach is performed using multiple post-it notes where each person writes one task per note and,
when finished, place them onto a wall which contains a large scale Macro Process Map.
This is a very fast way to get a lot of information including how long it takes to do a particular task.
Using the Value Stream Analysis techniques which you will study later, you will use this data to
improve the process. We will now discuss the development of the various levels of Process Mapping.
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Process Discovery
A Macro Process Map can be useful when reporting project status to management. A macro-map
can show the scope of the project so management can adjust their expectations accordingly.
Remember, only major process steps are included. For example, a step listed as “Plating” in a
manufacturing Macro Process Map might actually consists of many steps: pre-clean, anodic
cleaning, cathodic activation, pre-plate, electro-deposition, reverse-plate, rinse and spin-dry, etc.
The plating step in the macro-map will then be detailed in the Level 2 Process Map.
Exercise – Generate a Level 1 PFM
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4. Mentally walk through the major steps of the process and write
them down:
3. Describe the primary purpose and objective of the process (operational
definition): (The purpose of the process is to obtain telephone orders for
pizzas, sell additional products if possible, let the customer know the
price and approximate delivery time, provide an accurate cook order, log
the time and immediately give it to the pizza cooker).
4. Mentally walk through the major steps of the process and write them
down:
(Receive the order via phone call from the customer, calculate the price,
create a build order and provide the order to the pizza cooker).
5. Use standard flowcharting symbols to order and to illustrate the flow of
the major process steps on a separate sheet of paper.
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Process Discovery
or effectiveness of the
Start New
process could be Complete Pizza
Level 1 PFM
significantly improved by a worksheet Scrap
No
broad summary analysis Tape
Pizza Place in Put on
1
the improvement would be Correct
Yes
Box
Order on
Box
Delivery Rack
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Building a SIPOC
Identify
customer
requirements
Customer Order:
Level 1 process flow diagram
Call for Answer Write Confirm Sets Address Order to
Identify an Order Phone Order Order Price & Phone Cook
supplier
requirements
The tool name prompts the team to consider the suppliers (the 'S' in SIPOC) of your process, the
inputs (the 'I') to the process, the process (the 'P') your team is improving, the outputs (the 'O') of
the process and the customers (the 'C') that receive the process outputs.
Requirements of the customers can be appended to the end of the SIPOC for further detail and
requirements are easily added for the suppliers as well.
The SIPOC tool is particularly useful in identifying:
Who supplies inputs to the process?
What are all of the inputs to the process we are aware of? (Later in the DMAIC
methodology you will use other tools which will find still more inputs, remember Y = f(X) and
if we are going to improve Y, we are going to have to find all the X’s.
What specifications are placed on the inputs?
What are all of the outputs of the process?
Who are the true customers of the process?
What are the requirements of the customers?
You can actually begin with the Level 1 PFM that has 4 to 8 high-level steps, but a Level 2 PFM is
even of more value. Creating a SIPOC with a process mapping team, again the recommended
method is a wall exercise similar to your other process mapping workshop. Create an area that will
allow the team to place post-it note additions to the 8.5 X 11 sheets with the letters S, I, P, O and C
on them with a copy of the Process Map below the sheet with the letter P on it.
Hold a process flow workshop with key members. (Note: If the process is large in scope, hold an
individual workshop for each subsection of the total process, starting with the beginning steps).
The preferred order of the steps is as follows:
1. Identify the outputs of this overall process.
2. Identify the customers who will receive the outputs of the process.
3. Identify customers’ preliminary requirements
4. Identify the inputs required for the process.
5. Identify suppliers of the required inputs that are necessary for the process to function.
6. Identify the preliminary requirements of the inputs for the process to function properly.
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Next are the requirements data. To specify and measure something, it must have a unit of measure;
called a metric. As an example, the metric for the speed of your car is miles per hour, for your weight
it is pounds, for time it is hours or minutes and so on. You may know what the LSL and USL are but
you may not have a target value. A target is the value the customer prefers all the output to be
centered at; essentially, the average of the distribution. Sometimes it is stated as “1 hour +/- 5
minutes”. One hour is the target, the LSL is 55 minutes and the USL is 65 minutes. A target may not
be specified by the customer; if not, put in what the average would be. You will want to minimize the
variation from this value.
You will learn more about measurement but for now you must know that if something is required you
must have a way to measure it as specified in column 9. Column 10 is how often the measurement
is made and column 11 is the current value for the measurement data. Column 12 is for identifying if
this is a value or non-value added activity; more on that later. And finally column 13 is for any
comments you want to make about the output.
You will come back to this form and rank the significance of the outputs in terms of importance to
identify the CTQ’s.
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Later you will come back to this form and rank the importance of the inputs to the success of your
process and eventually you will have found the Critical X’s.
Compliance to GAAP
(Generally Accepted Every input can be either:
Controllable (C) - Inputs can be adjusted or controlled while the process is running (e.g., speed,
Accounting Principals). feed rate, temperature and pressure)
Procedural (P) - Inputs that are affected through a standardized set of activities established to
However even with the inputs create a process step completion (e.g., material queues, rigging setup, fixed data-entry forms)
Noise (N) - Things we do not think we can control, we are unaware of or see, too expensive or too
we define as controllable, we difficult to control (e.g., ambient temperature, humidity, individual)
never exert complete control.
We can control an input within the limits of its natural variation but it will vary on its own based on
its distributional shape - as you have previously learned. You choose to control certain inputs
because you either know or believe they have an effect on the outcome of the process. It is
inexpensive to do, so controlling it “makes us feel better” or there once was a problem and the
solution (right or wrong) was to exert control over some input.
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It is important to distinguish which category an input falls into. You know through Y = f(X) that if it is a
Critical X, by definition, you must control it. Also if you believe an input is or needs to be controlled
then you have automatically implied there are requirements placed on it and it must be measured.
You must always think and ask whether an input is or should be controlled or if it is uncontrolled.
Read the following background for the exercise: You will use
your selected key process for this exercise (if more than one
Perform person in the class is part of the same process you may do it as a
SIPOC
small group). You may not have all the pertinent detail to correctly
identify all supplier requirements, that is ok, do the best you can.
This will give you a starting template when you go back to do your
Identify all X’s project work. Use the process input identification and analysis
and Y’s
form for this exercise.
Identify
Task 1 – Identify a generic name for the process.
customer Task 2 - Write an operational description for the process.
requirements
Task 3 - Complete the remainder of the form except the Value –
Non value added column.
Identify Task 4 - Report to the class when called upon.
supplier
requirements
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Pizza
Dough
No
Take Order Add Place in Observe Check Yes Remove
from Cashier Ingredients Oven Frequently if Done from Oven 1
Start New
Pizza
Scrap
No
Tape
Pizza Place in Put on
1 Correct Box
Order on Delivery Rack
Yes Box
You have a decision at this point to continue with a complete characterization of the process you have
documented at a Level 2 in order to fully build the process management system or to narrow the effort
by focusing on those steps that are contributing to the problem you want solved.
In reality, usually just a few of the process steps are the Root Cause areas for any given higher level
process output problem. If your desire is the latter there are some other Measure Phase actions and
tools you will use to narrow the number of potential X’s and subsequently the number of process steps.
To narrow the scope so it is relevant to your problem consider the following: Remember using the pizza
restaurant as our example for selecting a key process? They were having a problem with overall
delivery time and burnt pizzas. Which steps in this process would contribute to burnt pizzas and how
might a pizza which was burnt so badly it had to be scrapped and restarted effect delivery time? It would
most likely be the steps between “place in oven” to “remove from oven” but it might also include “add
ingredients” because certain ingredients may burn more quickly than others. This is how, based on the
Problem Statement you have made, you would narrow the scope for doing a Level 3 PFM.
For your project the priority will be to do your best to find the problematic steps associated with your
Problem Statement. We will teach you some new tools in a later lesson to aid you in doing this. You may
have to characterize a number of steps until you get more experience at narrowing the steps that cause
problems; this is to be expected. If you have the time you should characterize the whole process.
Each step you select as the process causal steps must be fully characterized just as you have
previously done for the whole process. In essence you will do a “mini SIPOC” on each step of the
process as defined in the Level 2 Process Map. This can be done using a Level 3 Micro Process Map
and placing all the information on it or it can be consolidated onto an Excel spreadsheet format or a
combination of both. If all the data and information is put onto an actual Process Map expect the map to
be rather large physically. Depending on the scope of the process, some people dedicate a wall space
for doing this; say a 12 to 14 foot long wall. An effective approach for this is to use a roll of industrial
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A Level 3 Process Map contains all of the process details needed to meet your objective: all of the
flows, set points, standard operating procedures (SOPs), inputs and outputs; their specifications and if
they are classified as being controllable or non-controllable (noise). The Level 3 PFM usually contains
estimates of defects per unit (DPU), yield and rolled throughput yield (RTY) and value/non-value add. If
processing cycle times and inventory levels (materials or work queues) are important, value stream
parameters are also included.
This can be a lot of detail to manage and appropriate tracking sheets are required. We have supplied
these sheets in a paper and Excel spreadsheet format for your use. The good news is the approach
and forms for the steps are essentially the same as the format for identifying supplier and customer
requirements at the process level. A spreadsheet is very convenient tool and the output from the
spreadsheet can be fed directly into a C&E matrix and an FMEA (to be described later), also built using
spreadsheets.
You will find the work you have done up to this point in terms of a Level 1 and 2 Process Maps and the
SIPOC will be of use, both from knowledge of the process and actual data.
An important reminder of a previous lesson: You will recall when you were taught about project
definition where it was stated you should only try to solve the performance of only one process output,
at any one time. Because of the amount of detail you can get into for just one Y, trying to optimize more
than one Y at a time can become overwhelming. The good news is you will have laid all the ground
work to focus on a second and a third Y for a process by just focusing on one Y in your initial project.
Process Inputs (X’s) and Outputs (Y’s)
You are now down at the PROCESS STEP
Process Name Step Name/Number
Frequency of
Value Data
VA
or
General Data/Information
improvement view of a 3 PFM Process Output - Name (Y) Internal External Metric LSL Target USL Measured) Measurement Performance Level Data NVA Comments
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Identifying Waste
When we produce Writes
A Add to Rewrite
scratch NV
time on Order order
products or services, we pad
A No
engage process-based Greetings
Request Writes on
NV Asks
No
Call for an Answer and Confir
activities to transform Order phone order from
mention
customer
specials
scratch
pad
for
more? m order
order from N
Completes VA
capital and other Add Ask the following two questions to 3 from note
pad
energies that do not Performance identify non-value added activity:
! Is the form, fit or function of the work A
generate value is data
item changed as a result of this Give order to
OK Verify
with
NV
Cook
activity? notes
considered waste. Value ! Is the customer willing to pay for this Not
OK
generation is any activity Identify VA/ activity?
A
NV
Rewrite
that changes the form, fit NVA steps Order
or function of what we
are working on in a way the customer is willing to pay for. The goal of testing for VA vs. NVA is to
remove unnecessary activity (waste) from a process.
Hint: If an action starts with the two letters “re” there is a good chance it is a form of waste; i.e.
rework, replace, review, etc.
Some non-value activities cannot be removed; i.e., data collection is required to understand and plan
production activity levels, data must be collected to comply with governmental regulations, etc. (even
though the data have no effect on the actual product or service)
On the process flow diagram we place a red X through the steps or we write NVA or VA by each step.
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The great thing about the X-Y • WARNING! This is not real data, this is organized
Diagram is that it is sort of an brainstorming!! At the conclusion of the project you may realize
unbiased way to approach the things you thought were critical are in fact not as important
as was believed.
definition around the process and
WILL give you focus.
This is an important tool for the many reasons we have already stated. Use it to your benefit,
leverage the team and this will help you progress you through the methodology to accomplish your
ultimate project goal.
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This is the X-Y Diagram. You should have a copy of this template. If possible open it and get
familiar with it as we progress through this section.
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Use your Fishbone Diagram as the source and type in the Inputs in this section. Use common sense,
some of the info from the Fishbone may not justify going into the X-Y inputs.
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The template we have provided automatically calculates and sorts the ranking shown here.
Ranking multiplies the rank of each X by the Weight of each Metric. The
product of that is added together to become the Ranking .
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Example
Shown here is a basic example of a completed X-Y Diagram. You can click “Demo” on your
template to view this anytime.
Example
This is the Click the Summary Worksheet
summary
worksheet. If YX Diagram Summary
you click on Process: laminating
Date: 5/2/2006
the
Output Variables Input Variables
“Summary” Description Weight Description Ranking Rank %
broken 10 temperature 162 14.90%
tab you will unbonded area 9 human handling 159 14.63%
smears 8 material properties 130 11.96%
see this thickness 7 washer 126 11.59%
worksheet. 100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
Output (Y's)
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
time
temperature
material properties
Input Summary
Input (X's)
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Definition of FMEA
Failure Modes Effect Analysis or FMEA [usually pronounced as F-M-E-A (individual letters)] is a
structured approach to: read bullets. FMEA at this point is developed with tribal knowledge with a
cross-functional team. Later using process data the FMEA can be updated and better estimates of
detection and occurrence can be obtained. The FMEA is not a tool to eliminate X’s but rather control
the X’s. It is only a tool to identify potential X’s and prioritize the order in which the X’s should be
evaluated.
Give me an F , give me an M ……
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History of FMEA
History of FMEA:
• First used in the 1960’s in the Aerospace industry during the
Apollo missions
• In 1974 the Navy developed MIL-STD-1629 regarding the use
of FMEA
• In the late 1970’s automotive applications driven by liability
costs began to incorporate FMEA into the management of their
processes
• Automotive Industry Action Group (AIAG) now maintains the
FMEA standard for both Design and Process FMEA’s
The “edge of your seat” info on the history of the FMEA! You will all be sharing this with
everyone tonight at the dinner table!
Types of FMEA’s
There are many different types of FMEA’s. The basic premise is the same.
• Design DFMEA: Performed early in the design phase to analyze product fail
modes before they are released to production. The purpose is to analyze how
fail modes affect the system and minimize them. The severity rating of a fail
mode MUST be carried into the Process PFMEA.
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Purpose of FMEA
FMEA’s:
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RISK!!!
monitoring their effects.
This is extremely important
during the course of your
project work.
The FMEA…
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FMEA Components…#
The second column is the Name of the Process Step. The FMEA should sequentially follow the
steps documented in your Process Map.
§ Phone
§ Dial Number
§ Listen for Ring
§ Say Hello
§ Introduce Yourself
§ Etc.
Enter the Name of the Process Function here. The FMEA should
sequentially follow the steps documented in your Process Map.
Phone
Dial Number
Listen for Ring
Say Hello
Introduce Yourself
Etc.
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At a crossroads?
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The fifth column highlighted here is the ranking that is developed based on the team’s knowledge of the
process in conjunction with the predetermined scale. Severity is a financial measure of the impact to
the business of a failure in the output.
Ranking Severity
The Automotive Industry Action Group, a consortium of the “Big Three”: Ford, GM and Chrysler
developed this criteria. If you do not like it develop one that fits your organization; just make sure
it is standardized so everyone uses the same scale.
High Minor disruption to the production line. The product may have to be sorted and a portion 7
(less than 100%) scrapped. Vehicle operable, but at a reduced level of
performance. Customers will be dissatisfied.
Moderate Minor disruption to the production line. A portion (less than 100%) may have to be 6
scrapped (no sorting). Vehicle/item operable, but some comfort/convenience
item(s) inoperable. Customers will experience discomfort.
Low Minor disruption to the production line. 100% of product may have to be re-worked. 5
Vehicle/item operable, but some comfort/convenience item(s) operable at a
reduced level of performance. Customers will experience some dissatisfaction.
Very Low Minor disruption to the production line. The product may have to be sorted and a 4
portion (less than 100%) re-worked. Fit/finish/squeak/rattle item does not
conform. Most customers will notice the defect.
Minor Minor disruption to the production line. A portion (less than 100%) of the product may 3
have to be re-worked online but out-of-station. Fit/finish/squeak/rattle item
does not conform. Average customers will notice the defect.
Very Minor Minor disruption to the production line. A portion (less than 100%) of the product may 2
have to be re-worked online but in-station. Fit/finish/squeak/rattle item does
not conform. Discriminating customers will notice the defect.
None No effect. 1
* Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Reference Manual, 2002. Pgs 29-45. Chrysler Corporation, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Corporation.
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Critical Business May endanger company’s ability to do business. Failure mode affects process
10
Unit-wide operation and / or involves noncompliance with government regulation.
Critical Loss - May endanger relationship with customer. Failure mode affects product delivered
Customer and/or customer relationship due to process failure and/or noncompliance with 9
Specific government regulation.
Shown here is an example for severity guidelines developed for a financial services company.
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Recall the classifications of Procedural, Controllable and Noise developed when constructing your
Process Map and Fishbone Diagram? Use those classifications from the Fishbone in the “Class”
column, highlighted here, in the FMEA.
Potential Causes of the Failure refers to how the failure could occur.
This information should be obtained from the Fishbone Diagram.
The column “Potential Causes of the Failure”, highlighted here, refers to how the failure could
occur. This should also be obtained from the Fishbone Diagram.
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The column “Occurrence” highlighted here, refers to how frequently the specified failure is
projected to occur. This information should be obtained from Capability Studies or Historical Defect
Data in conjunction with the predetermined scale.
Ranking Occurrence
The Automotive Industry Action Group, a consortium of the “Big Three”: Ford, GM and Chrysler
developed these Occurrence rankings.
Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Reference Manual, 2002. Pg. 35.. Chrysler Corporation, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Corporation.
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Current Process Controls refers to the three types of controls that are
in place to prevent a failure in with the X’s. The 3 types of controls are:
• SPC - (Statistical Process Control)
• Poke-Yoke – (Mistake Proofing)
• Detection after Failure – (Inspection)
The column “Current Process Controls” highlighted here refers to the three types of controls that are
in place to prevent a failures.
The “Detection” highlighted here is an assessment of the probability that the proposed type of
control will detect a subsequent failure mode.
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Ranking Detection
Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), AIAG Reference Manual, 2002 Pg. 35. Chrysler Corporation, Ford Motor Company, General
Motors Corporation.
The Automotive Industry Action Group, a consortium of the “Big Three”: Ford, GM and Chrysler
developed these Detection criteria.
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FEMA Components…Actions
Taken Action refers to the action and effective date after it has been
completed.
The columns highlighted here are a type of post FMEA. Remember to update the FMEA throughout
your project, this is what we call a “Living Document” as it changes throughout your project.
The columns highlighted here are the adjusted levels based on the actions you have taken within the
process.
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FMEA Exercise
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§ Describe the purpose of each tool and when it should be used
Notes
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Measure Phase
Six Sigma Statistics
Now we will continue in the Measure Phase with “Six Sigma Statistics”.
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Overview
In this module you will learn how your
processes speak to you in the form of Welcome to Measure
data. If you are to understand the
Process Discovery
behaviors of your processes you must
learn to communicate with the process Six Sigma Statistics
in the language of data.
Basic Statistics
The field of statistics provides tools Descriptive Statistics
and techniques to act on data, to turn
Normal Distribution
data into information and knowledge
which you will then use to make Assessing Normality
decisions and to manage your Special Cause / Common Cause
processes.
Graphing Techniques
The statistical tools and methods you
Measurement System Analysis
will need to understand and optimize
your processes are not difficult. Use of Process Capability
Excel spreadsheets or specific
statistical analytical software Wrap Up & Action Items
has made this a relatively easy task.
In this module you will learn basic, yet powerful, analytical approaches and tools to increase your
ability to solve problems and manage process behavior.
Relax….it won t
be that bad!
Statistics is the basic language of Six Sigma. A solid understanding of Basic Statistics is the
foundation upon which many of the subsequent tools will be based.
Having an understanding of Basic Statistics can be quite valuable. Statistics however, like anything,
can be taken to the extreme.
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But it is not the need or the intent of this course to do that, nor is it the intent of Six Sigma. It can be
stated Six Sigma does not make people into statisticians rather it makes people into excellent
problem solvers by using appropriate statistical techniques.
Data is like crude oil that comes out of the ground. Crude oil is not of much good use. However if
the crude oil is refined many useful products occur; such as medicines, fuel, food products,
lubricants, etc. In a similar sense statistics can refine data into usable “products” to aid in decision
making, to be able to see and understand what is happening, etc.
Statistics is broadly used by just about everyone today. Sometimes we just do not realize it. Things
as simple as using graphs to better understand something is a form of statistics, as are the many
opinion and political polls used today. With easy to use software tools to reduce the difficulty and
time to do statistical analyses, knowledge of statistics is becoming a common capability amongst
people.
An understanding of Basic Statistics is also one of the differentiating features of Six Sigma and it
would not be possible without the use of computers and programs like MINITAB™. It has been
observed the laptop is one of the primary reasons Six Sigma has become both popular and
effective.
The Standard Deviation of population data For each, all, individual values
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Population: All the items that have the property of interest under study.
Population
Frame
Sample
Sample
Sample
A population parameter is a numerical value that summarizes the data for an entire population
while a sample has a corresponding numerical value called a statistic.
The population is a collection of all the individual data of interest. It must be defined carefully
such as all the trades completed in 2001. If for some reason there are unique subsets of trades it
may be appropriate to define those as a unique population such as; “all sub custodial market
trades completed in 2001” or “emerging market trades”.
Sampling frames are complete lists and should be identical to a population with every element
listed only once. It sounds very similar to population and it is. The difference is how it is used. A
sampling frame, such as the list of registered voters, could be used to represent the population of
adult general public. Maybe there are reasons why this would not be a good sampling frame.
Perhaps a sampling frame of licensed drivers would be a better frame to represent the general
public.
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Types of Data
The nature of data of data is important to understand. Based on the type of data you will have the
option to utilize different analyses.
Data, or numbers, are usually abundant and available to virtually everyone in the organization.
Using data to measure, analyze, improve and control processes forms the foundation of the Six
Sigma methodology. Data turned into information, then transformed into knowledge, lowers the risks
of improper decision making. Your goal is to make more decisions based on data versus the typical
practices of “I think”, “I feel” and “In my opinion”.
One of your first steps in refining data into information is to recognize what the type of data is you
are using. There are two primary types of data, they are attribute and variable data.
Attribute Data is also called qualitative data. Attribute Data is the lowest level of data. It is purely
binary in nature. Good or bad, yes or no type data. No analysis can be performed on Attribute Data.
Attribute Data must be converted to a form of variable data called discrete data in order to be
counted or be useful.
Discrete Data is information that can be categorized into a classification. Discrete Data is based on
counts. It is typically things counted in whole numbers. Discrete Data is data that can't be broken
down into a smaller unit to provide additional meaning. Only a finite number of values is possible
and the values cannot be subdivided meaningfully. For example, there is no such thing as a half of
defect or a half of a system lockup.
Continuous Data is information that can be measured on a continuum or scale. Continuous Data,
also called quantitative data can have almost any numeric value and can be meaningfully
subdivided into finer and finer increments, depending upon the precision of the measurement
system. Decimal sub-divisions are meaningful with Continuous Data. As opposed to Attribute Data
like good or bad, off or on, etc., Continuous Data can be recorded at many different points (length,
size, width, time, temperature, cost, etc.). For example 2.543 inches is a meaningful number,
whereas 2.543 defects does not make sense.
Later in the course we will study many different statistical tests but it is first important to understand
what kind of data you have.
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Discrete Variables
Shown here are additional Discrete Variables. Can you think of others within your business?
Continuous Variables
The length of prison time served for individuals All the real numbers between a and b, where a is
convicted of first degree murder the smallest amount of time served and b is the
largest.
The household income for households with All the real numbers between a and $30,000,
incomes less than or equal to $30,000 where a is the smallest household income in the
population
The blood glucose reading for those people All real numbers between 200 and b, where b is
having glucose readings equal to or greater than the largest glucose reading in all such people
200
Shown here are additional Continuous Variables. Can you think of others within your business?
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• Interval Scale – data can be arranged in some order and for which
differences in data values are meaningful. The data can be arranged in
an ordering scheme and differences can be interpreted.
• Ratio Scale – data that can be ranked and for which all arithmetic
operations including division can be performed. (division by zero is of
course excluded) Ratio level data has an absolute zero and a value of
zero indicates a complete absence of the characteristic of interest.
Shown here are the four types of scales. It is important to understand these scales as they will
dictate the type of statistical analysis that can be performed on your data.
Nominal Scale
Listed are
some Qualitative Variable Possible nominal level data values for
examples of the variable
Nominal Data.
The only
Blood Types A, B, AB, O
analysis is
whether they
are different or
not. State of Residence Alabama, …, Wyoming
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Ordinal Scale
Interval Scale
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Ratio Scale
Continuous Data provides us more opportunity for statistical analyses. Attribute Data can often
be converted to Continuous by converting it to a rate.
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Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive Statistics
Open the MINITAB™ Project Measure Data Sets.mpj and select We are going to use
the worksheet basicstatistics.mtw the MINITAB™
worksheet shown here
to create graphs and
statistics. Open the
worksheet
“basicstatistics.mtw”.
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Measures of Location
Mean are the most common measure of location. A “Mean” implies you are talking about the
population or inferring something about the population. Conversely, average, implies something
about sample data.
Mean is:
• Commonly referred to as the average.
• The arithmetic balance point of a distribution of data.
Stat>Basic Statistics>Display Descriptive Statistics…>Graphs…
>Histogram of data, with normal curve
Sample Population
Variable Maximum
Data 5.0200
Although the symbol is different there is no mathematical difference between the Mean of a sample
and Mean of a population.
The physical center of a data set is the Median and unaffected by large data values. This is why
people use Median when discussing average salary for an American worker, people like Bill Gates
and Warren Buffet skew the average number.
Median is:
• The mid-point, or 50th percentile, of a distribution of data.
• Arrange the data from low to high or high to low.
– It is the single middle value in the ordered list if there is an odd
number of observations
– It is the average of the two middle values in the ordered list if there
are an even number of observations
Variable Maximum
Data 5.0200
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Trimmed Mean is a:
Compromise between the Mean and Median.
• The Trimmed Mean is calculated by eliminating a specified percentage of
the smallest and largest observations from the data set and then
calculating the average of the remaining observations
• Useful for data with potential extreme values.
Variable Q3 Maximum
Data 5.0100 5.0200
The trimmed Mean (highlighted above) is less susceptible to the effects of extreme scores.
Mode is:
The most frequently occurring value in a distribution of data.
Mode = 5
It is possible to have multiple Modes. When this happens it is called Bi-Modal Distributions. Here
we only have one; Mode = 5.
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Range is the:
Difference between the largest observation and the smallest observation
in the data set.
• A small range would indicate a small amount of variability and a large range
a large amount of variability.
Variable Maximum
Data 5.0200
A range is typically used for small data sets which is completely efficient in estimating variation for
a sample of 2. As your data increases the Standard Deviation is a more appropriate measure of
variation.
Variance is the:
Average squared deviation of each individual data point from the Mean.
Sample Population
The Variance is the square of the Standard Deviation. It is common in statistical tests where it is
necessary to add up sources of variation to estimate the total.
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Sample Population
Variable Maximum
Data 5.0200
The Standard Deviation for a sample and population can be equated with short and long-term
variation. Usually a sample is taken over a short period of time making it free from the types of
variation that can accumulate over time so be aware. We will explore this further at a later point in
the methodology.
Normal Distribution
We can begin to discuss the Normal Curve and its properties once we understand the basic
concepts of central tendency and dispersion.
As we begin to assess our distributions know that sometimes it is actually more difficult to determine
what is effecting a process if it is Normally Distributed. When we have a Non-normal Distribution
there are usually special or more obvious causes of variation that can be readily apparent upon
process investigation.
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Normal Distribution
The shape of the Each combination of Mean and Standard Deviation generates a
Normal unique Normal curve:
Distribution is a
function of two
parameters, (the
Mean and the
Standard
Deviation).
By normalizing the Normal Distribution this converts the raw scores into standard Z-scores with a
Mean of 0 and Standard Deviation of 1, this practice allows us to use the Z-table.
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The area under the curve between any two points represents the
proportion of the distribution between those points.
µ x
Convert any raw score to a Z-score using the formula:
The area under the curve between any two points represents a proportion of the distribution. The
concept of determining the proportion between 2 points under the standard Normal curve is a critical
component to estimating Process Capability and will be covered in detail in that module.
Empirical Rule
The Empirical
rule allows us to
predict, or more
appropriately,
make an
estimate of how
our process is
performing. You
will gain a great
deal of
understanding
within the
Process
Capability
module. Notice
the difference
between +/- 1
SD and +/- 6 SD.
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There is no
good and bad. It While many processes in nature behave according to the Normal
is not always Distribution many processes in business, particularly in the areas of
better to have service and transactions, do not.
“Normal” data,
look at it in There are many types of distributions:
respect to the
intent of your
project. Again,
there is much
informational
content in non-
Normal There are many statistical tools that assume Normal Distribution
Distributions, for properties in their calculations.
this reason it is
useful to know So understanding just how Normal the data are will impact how we
how Normal our look at the data.
data are.
Go back to your project, what do you want to do with your distribution, Normal or Non-normal.
Many distributions simply by nature can NOT be Normal. Assume that your dealing with a time
metric, how do you get negative time, without having a flux capacitor as in the movie “Back to the
Future.” If your metric is by nature bound to some setting.
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The Anderson
Darling test yields a The shape of any Normal curve can be calculated based on the
statistical Normal Probability density function.
assessment (called
a goodness-of-fit Tests for Normality basically compare the shape of the calculated
test) of Normality curve to the actual distribution of your data points.
and the MINITAB™
version of the
For the purposes of this training we will focus on two ways in
Normal probability
MINITAB™ to assess Normality:
test produces a
– The Anderson-Darling test
graph to visual
demonstrate just – Normal probability test
how good that fit is.
Goodness-of-Fit
100
Departure of the Expected for Normal Distribution
Actual Data
actual data from 20%
the expected C
80
u
Normal Distribution. m
u
l
The Anderson- a 60
t
i
Darling Goodness- v
e
of-Fit test assesses P
e 40
r
the magnitude of c
e
these departures n
t
20
using an Observed 20%
minus Expected
0
formula. 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Raw Data Scale
Anderson-Darling test assesses how closely actual frequency at a given value corresponds to the
theoretical frequency for a Normal Distribution with the same Mean and Standard Deviation.
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The graph shows the probability density of your data plotted against the expected density of a
Normal curve. Notice the y-axis (probability) does not increase linearly as it is logarithmic based.
When the data fits a Normal Distribution the points (closed red circles) will be on or very close to the
Gaussian model (the blue line) in this analysis. A “P-value” of 0.921 (which is > 0.05) tells us the
distribution follows that of a “Normal Distribution” for the 500 points plotted in this example. There
are a few values on the higher side that tend to deviate away from the model. This means there are
a few Outliers on the higher side. However there are not enough to disrupt the “Normal Distribution”
pattern as we have a large set of 500 data points.
Descriptive Statistics
The reasoning
behind the decision
to assume
Normality based on
the P-value will be
covered in the
Analyze Phase.
For now just accept
this as a general
guideline.
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Anderson-Darling Caveat
80 M inimum 35.727
70 1st Q uartile 46.800
Percent
60 M edian 50.006
50 3rd Q uartile 53.218
40 36 40 44 48 52 56 60
M aximum 62.823
30
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
20
49.596 50.466
10 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
5 49.663 50.500
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev
1 9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
4.662 5.278
Mean
0.1
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Median
In this case both the Histogram and the Normality Plot look very normal . However
because the sample size is so large the Anderson-Darling test is very sensitive and any
slight deviation from Normal will cause the P-value to be very low. Again, the topic of
sensitivity will be covered in greater detail in the Analyze Phase.
For now, just assume that if N > 100 and the data
look Normal, then they probably are.
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Answers:
1) Is Distribution A Normal? Answer > No
2) Is Distribution B Normal? Answer > No
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Introduction to Graphing
Passive data
collection means do
The purpose of Graphing is to:
not mess with the • Identify potential relationships between variables.
process! We are • Identify risk in meeting the critical needs of the Customer,
gathering data and
Business and People.
looking for patterns
in a graphical tool. If • Provide insight into the nature of the X’s that may or may not
the data is control Y.
questionable, so is • Show the results of passive data collection.
the graph we create
from it. For now
utilize the data In this section we will cover…
available, we will
learn a tool called 1. Box Plots
Measurement 2. Scatter Plots
System Analysis later
3. Dot Plots
in this phase.
4. Time Series Plots
5. Histograms
Data Sources
Data
demographics Data sources are suggested by many of the tools that have been
will come out of covered so far:
the basic
– Process Map
Measure Phase
tools such as – X-Y Matrix
Process Maps, – FMEA
X-Y Diagrams, – Fishbone Diagrams
FMEAs and
Fishbones. Put
your focus on
Examples are:
the top X’s from
X-Y Diagram to 1. Time 3. Operator
Shift Training
focus your
Day of the week Experience
activities. Skill
Week of the month
Season of the year Adherence to procedures
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Graphical Concepts
The Histogram
A Histogram is a basic
A Histogram displays data that have been summarized into intervals. It
graphing tool that displays can be used to assess the symmetry or Skewness of the data.
the relative frequency or the
number of times a
measured items falls within
a certain cell size. The
values for the
measurements are shown
on the horizontal axis (in
cells) and the frequency of
each size is shown on the
vertical axis as a bar graph.
The graph illustrates the
distribution of the data by
showing which values occur
most and least frequently. To construct a Histogram the horizontal axis is divided into equal
A Histogram illustrates the intervals with a vertical bar drawn at each interval to represent its
shape, centering and frequency (the number of values that fall within the interval).
spread of the data you
have. It is very easy to
construct and an easy to use tool that you will find useful in many situations. This graph represents
the data for the 20 days of arrival times at work from the previous lesson page.
In many situations the data will form specific shaped distributions. One very common distribution
you will encounter is called the Normal Distribution, also called the bell shaped curve for its
appearance. You will learn more about distributions and what they mean throughout this course.
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Histogram Cont’d.
Choose the
Minitab Screen Command Menu Steps ~
worksheet titled
“Graphing
Data.MTW” from
project file. Now
perform the
Histogram based on
the following steps:
Graph>Histogram>Si
mple as shown on
the three
screenshots here.
The next step to
plotting the four
Histograms on the
same slide (as 4 in 1)
is shown next.
Once you select the data columns H1_20, H2_20, H3_20, H4_20 and click “Select” you would see
those variables displayed on the inside insert window of this screen as “H1_20-H4_20”. Now prior
to clicking “Ok” you can select the option of “Multiple Graphs” and choose the option “In separate
panels of the same graph”. Click “Ok” on this window and then the final window to arrive at the 4-
in-1 Histogram as shown on the next slide.
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Histogram Caveat
Variation on a Histogram
The Histogram shown here looks to be very Normal.
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Dot Plot
Using the worksheet “Graphing
Data.mtw”, create a Dot Plot.
The Dot Plot can be a useful alternative to the
Histogram for the granular Histogram especially if you want to see
individual values or you want to brush the data.
distribution obscures the
granularity whereas the Dot Plot
reveals it. Also Dot Plots allow
the user to brush data points.
The Histogram does not.
If in fact there are Special Causes (Uncontrollable Noise or Procedural non-compliance) they should
be addressed separately then excluded from this analysis. Take a few minutes and create other Dot
Plots using the columns in this data set.
Box Plot
A Box Plot (sometimes called a
Box Plots summarize data about the shape, dispersion and center of the data
Whisker Plot) is made up of a box
and also help spot Outliers.
representing the central mass of the
variation and thin lines, called Box Plots require one of the variables, X or Y, be categorical or Discrete and
whiskers, extending out on either the other be Continuous.
side representing the thinning tails of A minimum of 10 observations should be included in generating the Box Plot.
the distribution. Box Plots summarize
information about the shape, Maximum Value
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Box
the data set (excluding Q2: Median 50th Percentile
outliers). The lower whisker Q1: 25th Percentile
represents the first 25% of the
data in the Histogram (the light
Lower Whisker
grey area). The second and
third quartiles form the box
Lower Limit: Q1-1.5(Q3-Q1)
that represents 50% of the
data and finally the whisker on
the right represents the fourth quartile. The line drawn through the box represents the Median of
the data. Extreme values, or Outliers, are represented by asterisks. A value is considered an
Outlier if it is outside of the box (greater than Q3 or less than Q1) by more than 1.5 times (Q3-Q1).
You can use the Box Plot to assess the symmetry of the data: If the data are fairly symmetric, the
Median line will be roughly in the middle of the box and the whiskers will be similar in length. If the
data are skewed the Median may not fall in the middle of the box and one whisker will likely be
noticeably longer than the other.
Eat this –
then
check the
Box Plot!
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The individual
value plot shows
the individual data
points represented
in the Box Plot.
There are many
options available
within MINITAB™,
take a few
minutes to explore
the options within
the dialog box
found by following the menu path “Graph> Individual Value Plot> Multiple Y’s, Simple…”.
To create this
Box Plot follow
the MINITAB™
menu path
“Graph> Box
Plot…One Y,
With Groups…
Scale…
Transpose value
and category
scales”.
If the output is pass/fail it must be plotted on the y axis. Use the data shown to create the transposed
Box Plot. The reason we do this is for consistency and accuracy.
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The output Y is
Pass/Fail, the Box
Plot shows the
spread of hydrogen
content that created
the results.
Using the MINITAB™ worksheet “Graphing Data.mtw”, follow the MINITAB™ menu path
“Stat>ANOVA> One-Way (Unstacked )>Graphs…Individual value plot, Boxplots of data”, make both
graphs using the columns indicated and tile them.
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On the Individual
Plot data points, Minitab Screen Command Menu Steps ~
click your mouse
once and it selects
all data points as
shown on this
screenshot above.
Then click on
“Editor” under your
main menu and
choose “Edit
Individual
Symbols…” to
arrive at the window
“Edit Individual
Symbols.” At this
window select
“Identical Points”
then move to the
next slide.
Jitter Example
By using the
Jitter function Once your graph is created click once on any of the data points (that action should
select all the data points).
we will spread
Then go to MINITAB™ menu path: Editor> Edit Individual Symbols>Identical
the data apart
Points>Jitter…
making it
Increase the Jitter in the x-direction to .075, click OK, then click anywhere on the
easier to see
graph except on the data points to see the results of the change.
how many
data points
there are. Individual Value Plot of Weibull, Normal, Bi Modal
30
This gives us
relevance so 25
we do not
have points 20
plotted on top
Data
15
of each other.
10
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Using the
MINITAB™ Time Series Plots allow you to examine data over time.
worksheet Depending on the shape and frequency of patterns in the plot several
“Graphing X’s can be found as critical…… or eliminated.
Graph> Time Series Plot> Simple...
Data.mtw”.
A Time Series is
created by
following the
MINITAB™ menu
path “Graph> Time
Series Plot>
Simple...”
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What is happening
within each plot?
What is the difference
between the two
plots? Time 3 appears
to have wave pattern.
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§ Explain the various statistics used to express location and spread
of data
Notes
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Measure Phase
Measurement System Analysis
Now we will continue in the Measure Phase with “Measurements System Analysis”.
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Overview
Measurement System
Analysis is one of those Welcome to Measure
non-negotiable items!
MSA is applicable in Process Discovery
98% of projects and it
alone can have a Six Sigma Statistics
massive effect on the
success of your project Measurement System Analysis
and improvements
within the company.
Basics of MSA
In other words, LEARN
IT & DO IT. It is very Variables MSA
important.
Attribute MSA
Process Capability
Introduction to MSA
In order to improve your processes it is necessary to collect data on the "critical to" characteristics.
When there is variation in this data it can either be attributed to the characteristic that is being
measured and to the way measurements are being taken; which is known as measurement error.
When there is a large measurement error it affects the data and may lead to inaccurate decision-
making.
Measurement error is defined as the effect of all sources of measurement variability that cause an
observed value (measured value) to deviate from the true value.
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There are several types of measurement error which affect the location and the spread of the
distribution. Accuracy, linearity and stability affect location (the average). Measurement accuracy
describes the difference between the observed average and the true average based on a master
reference value for the measurements. A linearity problem describes a change in accuracy through
the expected operating range of the measuring instrument. A stability problem suggests that there is
a lack of consistency in the measurement over time. Precision is the variability in the measured
value and is quantified like all variation by using the standard deviation of the distribution of
measurements. For estimating accuracy and precision, multiple measurements of one single
characteristic must be taken.
The primary contributors to measurement system error are repeatability and reproducibility.
Repeatability is the variation in measurements obtained by one individual measuring the same
characteristic on the same item with the same measuring instrument. Reproducibility refers to the
variation in the average of measurements of an identical characteristic taken by different individuals
using the same instrument.
Given that Reproducibility and Repeatability are important types of error they are the object of a
specific study called a Gage Repeatability & Reproducibility study (Gage R&R). This study can be
performed on either attribute-based or variable-based measurement systems. It enables an
evaluation of the consistency in measurements among individuals after having at least two
individuals measure several parts at random on a few trials. If there are inconsistencies, then the
measurement system must be improved.
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Measurement Purpose
Measurement is a process
In order to be worth collecting measurements must provide value -
within itself. In order to
that is, they must provide us with information and, ultimately,
measure something you must
knowledge.
go through a series of tasks
and activities in sequence.
Usually there is some from of The question…
set-up, there is an instrument
that makes the measurement, What do I need to know?
there is a way of recording the
value and it may be done by …must be answered before we begin to consider issues of
multiple people. Even when measurements, metrics, statistics or data collection systems.
you are making a judgment
call about something there is Too often organizations build complex data collection and
some form of setup. You information management systems without truly understanding how
become the instrument and the data collected and metrics calculated actually benefit the
the result of a decision is organization.
recorded someway; even if it
is verbal or it is a set of
actions that you take.
The types and sophistication of measurement vary almost infinitely. It is becoming increasingly
popular or cost effective to have computerized measurement systems. The quality of
measurements also varies significantly - with those taken by computer tending to be the best. In
some cases the quality of measurement is so bad you would be just as well off to guess at what the
outcome should be. You will be primarily concerned with the accuracy, precision and reproducibility
of measurements to determine the usability of the data.
Purpose
The purpose of
conducting an MSA The purpose of MSA is to assess any error due to
is to inaccuracy of our measurement systems.
mathematically
partition sources of The error can be partitioned into specific sources:
variation within the – Precision
measurement • Repeatability - within an operator or piece of equipment
system itself. This • Reproducibility - operator to operator or attribute gage to
allows us to create attribute gage
an action plan to – Accuracy
reduce the biggest • Stability - accuracy over time
contributors of
• Linearity- accuracy throughout the measurement range
measurement error.
• Resolution – how detailed is the information
• Bias – Off-set from true value
– Constant Bias
– Variable Bias – typically seen with electronic equipment,
amount of Bias changes with setting levels
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2. How precise is the measurement? For a repeated measurement how much variability exists? As
seen in the first target example the “measurements” are not very precise but on the second target
they have much less dispersion. There is less variability as seen in the Histogram curve. However
we notice the tight cluster of “measurements” are off target, they are not very accurate.
3. The third characteristic is how reproducible is the measurement from individual to another?
What is the accuracy and precision from person to person? Here you would expect each person
that performs the measurement to be able to reproduce the same amount of accuracy and
precision as that of other person performing the same measurement.
Ultimately we make decisions based on data collected from measurement systems. If the
measurement system does not generate accurate or precise enough data we will make the
decisions that generate errors, waste and cost. When solving a problem or optimizing a process
we must know how good our data are and the only way to do this is to perform a Measurement
System Analysis.
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MSA Uses
The measurement system always has some amount of variation and that variation is additive to the
actual amount of true variation that exists in what we are measuring. The only exception is when
the discrimination of the measurement system is so poor it virtually sees everything the same.
This means you may actually be producing a better product or service than you think you are,
providing the measurement system is accurate; meaning it does not have a bias, linearity or stability
problem. It may also mean your customer may be making the wrong interpretations about your
product or service.
The components of variation are statistically additive. The primary contributors to measurement
system error are Repeatability and Reproducibility. Repeatability is the variation in measurements
obtained by one individual measuring the same characteristic on the same item with the same
measuring instrument. Reproducibility refers to the variation in the average of measurements of an
identical characteristic taken by different people using the same instrument.
Why MSA?
that produce data with no • Evaluate a gage before and after repair.
integrity? • Determine true process variation.
• Evaluate effectiveness of training program.
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Appropriate Measures
Sufficient means the
are measures are Appropriate Measures are:
available to be
• Sufficient – available to be measured regularly
measured regularly,
if not it would take
too long to gather • Relevant –help to understand/isolate the problems
data.
• Representative - of the process across shifts and people
Relevant means
they will help to • Contextual – collected with other relevant information that
understand and might explain process variability.
isolate the problems.
Representative
measures mean we Wadda ya
can detect variation wanna
across shifts and measure!?!
people.
Contextual means they are necessary to gather information on other relevant information that
actually would help to explain sources of variation.
Poor Measures
It is very common
while working projects Poor Measures can result from:
to discover the current
measurement
• Poor or non-existent operational definitions
systems are poor. • Difficult measures
Have you ever come
across a situation
• Poor sampling
where the data from • Lack of understanding of the definitions
your customer or
supplier does not
• Inaccurate, insufficient or non-calibrated
match yours? It measurement devices
happens often. It is
likely a problem with Measurement Error compromises decisions affecting:
one of the
measurement • Customers
systems. We have • Producers
worked MSA projects
across critical
• Suppliers
measurement points
in various companies.
It is not uncommon for more than 80% of the measurements to fail in one way or another.
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Components of Variation
Observed Variation
Precision Accuracy
All measurement systems have error. If you do not know how much of the
variation you observe is contributed by measurement system error you cannot
make confident decisions.
If you were one speeding ticket away from losing your license
how fast would you be willing to drive on your local freeway?
We are going to strive to have the measured variation be as close as possible to the true variation.
In any case we want the variation from the measurement system to be a small as possible. We are
now going to investigate the various components of variation of measurements.
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Precision
A precise metric is one that returns the same value of a given The spread of the data
attribute every time an estimate is made. is measured by
Precision. This tells us
how well a measure
Precise data are independent of who measures them or can be repeated and
reproduced.
when the measurement is made.
Repeatability
Measurements will be
different…expect it! If Repeatability is the variation in measurements obtained with one
measurements are measurement instrument used several times by one appraiser
always exactly the while measuring the identical characteristic on the same part.
same this is a flag,
sometimes it is
because the gauge Y
does not have the
proper resolution,
meaning the scale does
not go down far enough
to get any variation in Repeatability
the measurement.
For example:
For example, would
you use a football field – Manufacturing: One person measures the purity of multiple
to measure the gap in a samples of the same vial and gets different purity measures.
spark plug? – Transactional: One person evaluates a contract multiple times
(over a period of time) and makes different determinations of errors.
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Reproducibility
Reproducibility will
be present when it Reproducibility is the variation in the average of the measurements
is possible to have made by different appraisers using the same measuring
more than one instrument when measuring the identical characteristic on the same
operator or more part.
than one
instrument Reproducibility
measure the same
part. Y Operator A
Operator B
For example:
– Manufacturing: Different people perform purity test on samples
from the same vial and get different results.
– Transactional: Different people evaluate the same contract and
make different determinations.
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Accuracy
Accuracy and
the average are An accurate measurement is the difference between the observed average
related. Recall of the measurement and a reference value.
in the Basic – When a metric or measurement system consistently over or under estimates
Statistics module the value of an attribute it is said to be inaccurate
we talked about Accuracy can be assessed in several ways:
the Mean and
– Measurement of a known standard
the variance of a
distribution. – Comparison with another known measurement method
– Prediction of a theoretical value
Think of it this
What happens if we do not have standards, comparisons or theories?
way….If the
Measurement True
Average
System is the
distribution then
accuracy is the Accuracy
Mean and the Warning, on a cross country
precision is the trip do not assume your
variance. gasoline gage is gospel.
Measurement
However, before you invest a lot of time analyzing the data you
must ensure the data has integrity.
– The analysis should include a comparison with known
reference points.
– For the example of product returns the transaction details
should add up to the same number that appears on financial
reports, such as the income statement.
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+ =
Bias
Bias is defined as the deviation of the measured value from the actual
value.
Bias Bias
Bias is a component of Accuracy. Constant Bias is when the measurement is off by a constant
value. A scale is a prefect example; if the scale reads 3 lbs when there is no weight on it then
there is a 3 lb Bias. Make sense?
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Stability
Stability just looks for changes in the accuracy or Bias over time.
Drift
Linearity
+e
% Linearity = |Slope| * 100
B i a s (y)
0.00
*
-e
*
*
Reference Value (x)
y = a + b.x
y: Bias, x: Ref. Value
a: Slope, b: Intercept
Linearity just evaluates if any Bias is consistent throughout the measurement range of the
instrument. Many times Linearity indicates a need to replace or perform maintenance on the
measurement equipment.
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Types of MSA’s
Variable Data is
always preferred over MSA’s fall into two categories:
Attribute because it
give us more to work
Attribute Variable
with.
– Pass/Fail – Continuous scale
Now we are gong to – Go/No Go – Discrete scale
review Variable MSA – Document preparation – Critical dimensions
testing. – Surface imperfections – Pull strength
– Customer Service response – Warp
Variable MSA’s
MSA’s use a
random effects MINITAB™ calculates a column of variance components (VarComp) that are used to
calculate % Gage R&R using the ANOVA Method.
model meaning
that the levels for
the variance Measured Value True Value
components are
not fixed or
assigned, they are
assumed to be
random.
Estimates for a Gage R&R study are obtained by calculating the variance components
for each term and for error. Repeatability, Operator and Operator*Part components are
summed to obtain a total Variability due to the measuring system.
We use variance components to assess the Variation contributed by each source of
measurement error relative to the total Variation.
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Recommended
5 or more Categories
% Tolerance
or % Contribution System is…
% Study Variance
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%Tolerance
50 0.625
0.630
0.629
Average
0.629 3
0.628 Mean=0.6282 corrective
0.628 action is needed.
0.627 0.627
0.626 0.626
0.625 LCL=0.6248 0.625
0.624 0.624
0 Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
%Tolerance
50 measurements are the same the range = 0.
0.625
- The Center Line is the grand average for the
0
process.
0.620
Gage R&R Repeat Reprod Part-to-Part - The Control
Part 1 2 Limits
3 4 5represent
6 7 8 the amount of
9 10
UCL=0.005936
0.005
If any of the points on the graph go above the
0.625
R=0.001817
upper Control Limit (UCL) that operator is
0.000 LCL=0
having problems consistently measuring parts.
0.620
0 Operator 1 2
The Upper Control Limit value takes3 into
Xbar Chart by Operator Operator*Part Interaction
account the number of measurements by an
0.632 1 2 3 Operator
0.631
0.631
UCL=0.6316
operator on a part and the variability between
0.630
1
2
Sample Mean
0.630
parts. If the operators are measuring
0.629
Average
0.629 3
0.628 Mean=0.6282 0.628
0.627 consistently these ranges should be small
0.627
0.626 relative to the data and the points should stay
0.626
0.625 LCL=0.6248 0.625
0.624 in control.
0.624
0 Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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Components of Variation
the part-to-part variation to repeatability. The
By Part
100
Xbar chart consists of the following:
%Contribution 0.630
%Study Var
- The plotted points are the average
Percent
%Tolerance
50
measurement
0.625 on each part for each operator.
- The Center Line is the overall average for
0 all part measurements by all operators.
0.620
Gage R&R Repeat Reprod Part-to-Part
-Part
The Control
1 2
Limits
3 4
(UCL
5 6
and
7
LCL)
8
are
9 10
UCL=0.005936
0.005 Because
0.625
the parts chosen for a Gage R&R
R=0.001817
study should represent the entire range of
0.000 LCL=0 possible
0.620
parts this graph should ideally show
0 the lack-of-control.
Operator 1 Lack-of-control
2 exists
3
0.630
0.629
Average
0.629 3
0.628 Mean=0.6282 0.628
0.627 In this case there are only a few points out of
0.627
0.626 0.626
0.625 LCL=0.6248 control
0.625 indicating the measurement system is
0.624
inadequate.
0.624
0 Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
%Tolerance
50
each operator on each part in the study,
0.625
arranged by part. Each line connects the
0
averages 0.620
for a single operator. Ideally the lines
Gage R&R Repeat Reprod Part-to-Part will follow
Part the same
1 2 pattern
3 4 5 and
6 7the
8 part
9 10
UCL=0.005936
0.005
Pattern Means… 0.625
R=0.001817
0.000 LCL=0 0.620
Lines are virtually identical
0 Operators are measuring the Operator 1 2 3
parts the same
Xbar Chart by Operator Operator*Part Interaction
1 2 3 Operator
One line is consistently
0.632
0.631
That operator is measuring
UCL=0.6316 0.631 1
0.630
higher or lower than
0.630 the parts consistently higher or 2
Sample Mean
0.629
Average
0.629 3
others 0.628 lower than the others Mean=0.6282 0.628
0.627 0.627
Lines are not parallel
0.626
0.625
or they The operator’s ability to 0.626
LCL=0.6248 0.625
cross 0.624 measure a part depends on 0.624
0 which part is being measured Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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50 0.625
symbols represent the Means. The red line
connects the average measurements for each 0.620
0
operator. You can also Repeat
Gage R&R assessReprod
whether the
Part-to-Part Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
overall Variability in part measurement
R Chart by Operator is the By Operator
same using
0.010 this graph.1 Is the spread2 in the 3
0.630
measurements similar? Or is one operator more
Sample Range
UCL=0.005936
Variable0.005
than the others? 0.625
R=0.001817
0.000 LCL=0 0.620
0 Operator 1 2 3
0.630
Parallel to the x-axis The operators are 0.629
Average
0.629 3
0.628
0.628 measuring the parts Mean=0.6282
0.627
0.627
0.626 similarly 0.626
0.625 LCL=0.6248 0.625
0.624
Not parallel to the x-axis The operators are 0.624
0
measuring the parts Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
differently
%Tolerance
50 0.625
MINITABTM allows us to analyze all of the
measurements taken in the study arranged by
part.0 The measurements are represented by 0.620
Gage R&R Repeat Reprod Part-to-Part Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
dots; the Means by the circle-cross symbol.
R Chart by Operator By Operator
The red line connects
0.010 1
the average
2 3
measurements for each part. 0.630
Sample Range
UCL=0.005936
Ideally
0.005 multiple measurements for each 0.625
individual part have little variation (the dotsR=0.001817
for
one
0.000part will be close together) and averages
LCL=0 0.620
will vary 0enough so differences between parts Operator 1 2 3
are clear. Xbar Chart by Operator Operator*Part Interaction
0.632 1 2 3 Operator
UCL=0.6316 0.631 1
0.631 0.630 2
Sample Mean
0.630
0.629
Average
0.629 3
0.628 Mean=0.6282 0.628
0.627 0.627
0.626 0.626
0.625 LCL=0.6248 0.625
0.624 0.624
0 Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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Practical Conclusions
% Tolerance
or % Contribution System is…
% Study Variance
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Design Types
Crossed Design
A Crossed Design is used only in non-destructive testing and assumes all the parts
can be measured multiple times by either operators or multiple machines.
! Gives the ability to separate part-to-part Variation from measurement system
Variation.
! Assesses Repeatability and Reproducibility.
! Assesses the interaction between the operator and the part.
Nested Design
A Nested Design is used for destructive testing and also situations where it is not
possible to have all operators or machines measure all the parts multiple times.
! Destructive testing assumes all the parts within a single batch are identical
enough to claim they are the same.
! Nested designs are used to test measurement systems where it is not
possible (or desirable) to send operators with parts to different locations.
! Do not include all possible combinations of factors.
! Uses slightly different mathematical model than the Crossed Design.
Crossed Designs are the workhorse of MSA. They are the most commonly used design in
industries where it is possible to measure something more than once. Chemical and biological
systems can use Crossed Designs also as long as you can assume the samples used come from a
homogeneous solution and there is no reason they can be different.
Nested Designs must be used for destructive testing. In a Nested Design each part is measured by
only one operator. This is due to the fact that after destructive testing the measured characteristic is
different after the measurement process than it was at the beginning. Crash testing is an example of
destructive testing.
If you need to use destructive testing you must be able to assume all parts within a single batch are
identical enough to claim they are the same part. If you are unable to make that assumption then
part-to-part variation within a batch will mask the measurement system variation.
If you can make that assumption then choosing between a Crossed or Nested Gage R&R Study for
destructive testing depends on how your measurement process is set up. If all operators measure
parts from each batch then use Gage R&R Study (Crossed). If each batch is only measured by a
single operator you must use Gage R&R Study (Nested). In fact whenever operators measure
unique parts you have a Nested Design. Your Master Black Belt can assist you with the set-up of
your design.
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The parts selected for Step 1: Call a team meeting to introduce the concepts of the Gage R&R
the MSA are not Step 2: Select parts for the study across the range of interest
random samples. We – If the intent is to evaluate the measurement system throughout the process range
want to be sure the select parts throughout the range
parts selected – If only a small improvement is being made to the process the range of interest is
represent the overall now the improvement range
spread of parts that Step 3: Identify the inspectors or equipment you plan to use for the analysis
– In the case of inspectors explain the purpose of the analysis and that the
would normally be seen inspection system is being evaluated not the people
in manufacturing. Do Step 4: Calibrate the gage or gages for the study
not include parts that – Remember Linearity, Stability and Bias
are obviously grossly Step 5: Have the first inspector measure all the samples once in random order
defective, they could Step 6: Have the second inspector measure all the samples in random order
actually skew your – Continue this process until all the operators have measured all the parts one time
mathematical results – This completes the first replicate
and conclude that the Step 7: Repeat steps 5 and 6 for the required number of replicates
MSA is just fine. For – Ensure there is always a delay between the first and second inspection
example, an engine Step 8: Enter the data into MINITABTM to analyze your results
manufacturer was using Step 9: Draw conclusions to make changes if necessary
a pressure tester to
check for leaks in engine blocks. All the usual ports were sealed with plugs and the tester was
attached and pressure was applied. Obviously they were looking for pin hole leaks that would cause
problems later down the line. The team performing the MSA decided to include an engine block that
had a hole in the casting so large you could insert your entire fist. That was an obvious gross defect
and should never been included in the MSA. Do not be silly saying that once in a while you get a part
like that and it should be tested. NO IT SHOULD NOT - you should never have received it in the first
place and you have got much bigger problems to take care of before you do an MSA.
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The next few slides show how to create a data collection table in MINITAB™. You can use
Excel also.
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Variables:
– Part
– Operator
– Response
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Gage R & R
Tools>Gage
Study>Gage R&R
Study (Crossed)…”.
Within the dialog box
Gage R&R Study
(Crossed), the
“Options…” button
shown in the dialog
box here allows you
to calculate variation
as a percent of study
variation, process
tolerance or a
historical Standard
Deviation.
In this example a Tolerance Range of 1 was used.
Graphical Output
Looking at the “Components of Variation” chart the Part to Part Variation needs to be larger than
Gage Variation. If in the “Components of Variation” chart the “Gage R&R” bars are larger than the
“Part-to-Part” bars then all your measurement Variation is in the measuring tool; i.e.… “maybe the
gage needs to be replaced”.
The same concept applies to the “Response by Operator” chart. If there is extreme Variation within
operators then the training of the operators is suspect.
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Session Window
The Session
Window output Two-Way ANOVA Table With Interaction
from Gage R & R Source DF SS MS F P
Part 9 1.89586 0.210651 193.752 0.000
has many values.
Operator 2 0.00706 0.003532 3.248 0.062
The ANOVA table Part * Operator 18 0.01957 0.001087 1.431 0.188
values are utilized Repeatability 30 0.02280 0.000760
to calculate % Total 59 1.94529
Contribution and
Standard
Deviation. To Gage R&R
calculate % study %Contribution
Source VarComp (of VarComp)
variation and % Total Gage R&R 0.0010458 2.91
tolerance, you will Repeatability 0.0007600 2.11
need to know Reproducibility 0.0002858 0.79
values for the Operator 0.0001222 0.34
Standard Operator*Part 0.0001636 0.45
Part-To-Part 0.0349273 97.09
Deviation and
Total Variation 0.0359731 100.00
tolerance ranges.
MINITAB™ Number of Distinct Categories = 8
defaults to a value I can see clearly now!
of 6 (the number
of Standard Deviations within which about 99.7% of your values should fall). Tolerance ranges are
based on process tolerance and are business values specific to each process.
This output tells us that the part to part variation exceeds the allowable tolerance. This gage is
acceptable.
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Signal Averaging
Suppose the Standard Deviation for one part measured by one person
many times is 9.5.
Here we have a problem with Repeatability, not Reproducibility, so we calculate what the Standard
Deviation should be in order to meet our desire of a 15% gage.
We are assuming 15% will be acceptable for the short term until an appropriate fix can be
implemented. The 9.5 represents our estimate for Standard Deviation of population of Repeatability.
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Attribute MSA
The Discrete
A methodology used to assess Attribute Measurement Systems.
Measurement Study is a
set of trials conducted to
assess the ability of Attribute Gage Error
operators to use an
operational definition or
categorize samples, an
Attribute MSA has:
Repeatability Reproducibility Calibration
1 . Multiple operators
measure (categorize) – They are used in situations where a continuous measure cannot be
multiple samples a obtained.
multiple number of times. – It requires a minimum of 5 times as many samples as a continuous study.
For example: 3 operators – Disagreements should be used to clarify operational definitions for the
each categorize the same categories.
50 samples, then repeat • Attribute data are usually the result of human judgment (which category does
the measures at least this item belong in).
once. • When categorizing items (good/bad; type of call; reason for leaving) you need
a high degree of agreement on which way an item should be categorized.
The test is analyzed based on correct (vs. incorrect) answers to determine the goodness of the
measuring system.
When a Continuous MSA is not possible an Attribute MSA can be performed to evaluate the quality
of the data being reported from the process.
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Take 60 Seconds and count the number of times “F” appears in this paragraph?
Tally the answers? Did everyone get the same answer? Did anyone get 36? That’s the right answer!
Why not? Does everyone know what an “F” (defect) looks like? Was the lighting good in the room?
Was it quite so you could concentrate? Was the writing clear? Was 60 seconds long enough?
This is the nature of visual inspections! How many places in your process do you have visual
inspection? How good do you expect them to be?
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This graph shows how each appraiser compared to the right answer, accuracy. The blue dot is the
actual percentage for each operator. The red line with the X on each end is the confidence
interval. Duncan agreed with the standard 53% of the time. We are 95% confident based on this
study that Duncan will agree with the standard between 27% and 79% of the time. To decrease
the interval, add more parts to the study.
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# Matched: Appraiser's assessment across trials agrees with the known standard.
Between Appraisers
Assessment Agreement
Assessment Agreement
This information can be used to determine what corrective actions, if any, need to take place. The
“all appraisers versus the standard” should be above 75% for the assessment to be considered
acceptable. The information contained in this Session Window can then be used to help decide on
corrective actions; i.e., if the operators agree with themselves but not each other or the standard
then perhaps training in the standard is in order. If some of the operators do not agree with the
standard but others do then perhaps only some training is required. BE CAREFUL – if you have
chosen someone to be the standard and they are wrong it will make it look as though everyone
else is wrong!
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Kappa Statistics
This indicates the degree of agreement of the nominal or ordinal assessments made by multiple
appraisers when evaluating the same samples. Kappa statistics are commonly used in cross
tabulation (table) applications and in attribute agreement analysis (Attribute Gage R&R).
For example, 45 patients are examined by two doctors for a particular disease. How often will the
doctors’ diagnosis of the condition (positive or negative) agree? Another example of nominal
assessments is inspectors rating defects on TV screens. Do they consistently agree on their
classifications of bubbles, divots or dirt?
Kappa values range from -1 to +1. The higher the value of kappa the stronger the agreement.
When:
· Kappa = 1, perfect agreement exists.
· Kappa = 0, agreement is the same as would be expected by chance.
· Kappa < 0, agreement is weaker than expected by chance; this rarely happens.
Typically a kappa value of at least 0.70 is required, but kappa values close to 0.90 are preferred.
In Duncan’s case he had the option of answering with -2; -1; 0; 1; 2. His agreement with the
standard on -2 was .58333. If a value of .70 is required then Duncan needs help in his
assessment of the -2 value.
Simpson, on the other hand, was excellent with the -2 assessment but was lower with the
assessment of 1. That being said, all Simpson’s values are greater than 0.70 so Simpson did well.
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M&M Exercise
2 M&M Fail
• Pick 30 M&Ms out of a package.
3 M&M Pass
• Enter results into either the Excel template or MINITABTM to
draw conclusions.
To complete this study you will need a bag of M&Ms containing 50 or more “pieces”. The
attribute value for each piece means the “True” value for each piece.
In addition to being the facilitator of this study you will also serve as the customer so you will have
the say as to if the piece is actually a Pass or Fail piece. Determine this before the inspectors
review the pieces. You will need to construct a sheet as shown here to keep track of the “pieces”
or “parts”. Then the inspectors will individually judge each piece based on the customer
specifications of bright, shiny, uncracked M&Ms. The objective is to assess the accuracy of an
“inspection” approach to quality.
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Notes
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Measure Phase
Process Capability
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Process Capability
Overview
Continuous Capability
Concept of Stability
Attribute Capability
Process Capability:
This is the Definition of Process Capability. We will now begin to learn how to assess it.
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Process Capability
Capability Analysis
Capability Analysis provides
a quantitative assessment
The X’s The Y’s
of your process’s ability to (Inputs)
Y = f(X) (Process Function)
(Outputs)
Variation – “Voice of
the Process”
meet the requirements
Frequency
placed on it. Capability Op i Verified Op i + 1
Data for
Analysis is traditionally X1
?
Y1…Yn
outputs of a process, in
10.44
10.33 10.43
10.12 10.33
X3 Y2 9.86
10.44 10.21
10.43 10.44
10.01
10.21 9.86
9.80 9.90 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5
10.07
9.86
10.29
10.07 10.15
10.01 10.07
10.36
10.29 10.44
10.15 10.29
X5 Correctable
Voice of the Process to the ?
the important
going into the process.
10.36 10.44 10.29
10.03 10.36
10.33
Defects
process Defects
They are after all outputs
from some previous
process and you have Capability Analysis Numerically -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6
You will learn how the output variation width of a given process output compares with the
specification width established for that output. This ratio, the output variation width divided by the
specification width, is what is know as capability.
Since the specification is an essential part of this assessment a rigorous understanding of the
validity of the specification is vitally important; it also has to be accurate. This is why it is important
to perform a RUMBA type analysis on process inputs and outputs.
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Process Capability
Re
variation is larger than the ss
du
Capable and ce
ce
difference between the upper on target ro
rp
sp
e
spec limit minus the lower nt
re
Average
ad
LSL USL Ce
spec limit, our product or
service output will always
produce defects it will not be
capable of meeting the
customer or process output Target
requirements.
As you have learned variation exists in everything. There will always be variability in every process
output. You cannot eliminate it completely but you can minimize it and control it. You can tolerate
variability if the variability is relatively small compared to the requirements and the process
demonstrates long-term stability. In other words the variability is predictable and the process
performance is on target meaning the average value is near the middle value of the requirements.
The output from a process is either: capable or not capable, centered or not centered. The degree of
capability and/or centering determines the number of defects generated. If the process is not capable
you must find a way to reduce the variation.
And if it is not centered it is obvious you must find a way to shift the performance. But what do you do
if it is both incapable and not centered? It depends but most of the time you must minimize and get
control of the variation first, this is because high variation creates high uncertainty, you cannot be
sure if your efforts to move the average are valid or not. Of course if is just a simple adjustment to
shift the average to where you want it you would do that before addressing the variation.
Our efforts in a Six Sigma This involves finding the variables that will shift the process
project that is examining a to the target. This is usually the easiest option.
process that is performing at a
level less than desired is to LSL
USL
Shift the Mean of performance Shift
such that all outputs are within
an acceptable range.
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Process Capability
Move the specification limits – Obviously this implies making them wider, not narrower.
Obviously this implies making Customers usually do not go for this option but if they do…
them wider, not narrower. it is the easiest!
Customers usually do not go
LSL USL USL
for this option.
Move Spec
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Process Capability
Capability Studies
A stable process is
consistent with time. Time Capability Studies:
Series Plots are one way to • Are intended to be regular, periodic, estimations of a process’s
check for stability; Control ability to meet its requirements.
Charts are another. Your • Can be conducted on both Discrete and Continuous Data.
process may not be stable
• Are most meaningful when conducted on stable, predictable
at this time. One of the
processes.
purposes of the Measure
Phase is to identify the • Are commonly reported as Sigma Level which is optimal (short term)
many possible X’s for the performance.
defects seen, gather data • Require a thorough understanding of the following:
and plot it to see if there are – Customer’s or business’s specification limits
any patterns to identify – Nature of long-term versus short-term data
what to work on first.
– Mean and Standard Deviation of the process
When performing Capability – Assessment of the Normality of the data (Continuous Data only)
Analysis, try to get as much – Procedure for determining Sigma level
data as are possible, back
as far in time as possible,
over a reference frame that
is generally representative
of your process.
Steps to Capability
#1 Verify Customer
Requirements
#2 Validate
Specification
Limits
#3 Collect Sample
Data
#4 Determine
Data Type
(LT or ST)
#5 Check data
For Normality
#6 Calculate
Z-Score, PPM,
Yield, Capability
Cp, Cpk, Pp, Ppk
#7
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Process Capability
Data Collection
Capability Studies should include all observations (100% sampling) for a specified period.
You must know if the data
Short-term data: Long-term data:
collected from process • Collected across a narrow • Is collected across a broader inference
outputs is a short-term or a inference space. space.
• Daily, weekly; for one shift, • Monthly, quarterly; across multiple
long-term representation of shifts, machines, operators, etc
machine, operator, etc.
how well the process • Is potentially free of Special Cause • Subject to both Common and Special
performs. There are several variation. Causes of variation.
• Often reflects the optimal • More representative of process
reasons for this but for now performance level. performance over a period of time.
we will focus on it from the • Typically consists of 30 – 50 data • Typically consists of at least 100 – 200
points. data points.
perspective of assessing
Lot 1
the capability of the Lot 5
Lot 3
Fill Quantity
process.
Each lot is sampled as it leaves the manufacturing facility on its way to the warehouse. The results
are represented by the graphic where you see the performance data on a lot by lot basis for the
amount of fill based on the samples that taken. Each lot has its own variability and average as
shown. The variability actually looks reasonable and we notice the average from lot to lot is varying
as well.
What the customer eventually experiences in the amount of fluid in each bottle is the value across
the full variability of all the lots. It can now be seen and stated that the long-term variability will always
be greater than the short-term variability.
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Process Capability
Baseline Performance
As an example, imagine you reported the process performance Baseline was based on distribution 3
in the graphic. If so you would mislead yourself and others that the process had excellent on target
performance. If you used distribution 2 you would be led to believe the average performance was near
the USL and most of the output of the process was above the spec limit. To resolve these potential
problems it is important to always use long-term data to report the Baseline.
How do you know if the data you have is short or long-term data? Here are some guidelines. A
somewhat technical interpretation of long-term data is the process has had the opportunity to
experience most of the sources of variation impacting it. Remembering the outputs are a function of
the inputs so what we are saying is most of the combinations of the inputs, each with their full range of
variation, has been experienced by the process. You may use these situations as guidelines.
Long-term data is a “video” of process performance and is characterized by these types of conditions:
Many shifts Many batches
Many employees Many services and lines
Many suppliers
Long-term variation is larger than short-term variation because of: material differences, fluctuations in
temperature and humidity, different people performing the work, multiple suppliers providing materials,
equipment wear, etc.
As a general rule, short-term data consist of 20 to 30 data points over a relatively short period of time
and long-term data consist of 100 to 200 data points over an extended period of time. Do not be
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Process Capability
While we have used a manufacturing example to explain all this it is exactly the same for a service or
administrative type of process. In these types of processes there are still different people, different
shifts, different workloads, differences in the way inputs come into the process, different software,
computers, temperatures, etc. The same exact concepts and rules apply.
You should now appreciate why when we report process performance we need to know what the data
is representative of. Using such data we will now demonstrate how to calculate process capability and
then we will show how it is used.
Components of Variation
Long-term data includes (in theory) all the variation one can expect to see in the process. Usually
what we have is something in between. It is a judgment call to decide which type of data you have; it
varies depending on what you are trying to do with it and what you want to learn from it.
In general one or more months of data are probably more long-term than short-term; two weeks or
less is probably more like short-term data.
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Process Capability
x x
x
x x
x x x
x x
x
x x x Time
x x x x
x x
x x x
x
Stability
Stability is established A Stable Process is consistent over time. Time Series Plots and
by plotting data in a
Control Charts are the typical graphs used to determine Stability.
Time Series Plot or in
a Control Chart. If the
data used in the Time Series Plot of PC Data
Control Chart goes out 70
of control the data is
not stable.
60
At this point in the
Measure Phase there
PC Data
is no reason to 50
assume the process is
stable. Performing a
Capability Study at 40
Tic
this point effectively
draws a line in the toc…
sand. tic 30
1 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480
toc… Index
If however the process
is stable, short-term
data provides a more reliable estimate of true Process Capability.
Looking at the Time Series Plot shown here where would you look to determine the entitlement of
this process? As you can see the circled region has a much tighter variation. We would consider
this the process entitlement; meaning if we could find the X’s causing the instability this is the best
the process can perform in the short term. The idea is we have done it for some time, we should be
able to do it again. This does not mean this is the best this process will ever be able to do.
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Process Capability
Measures of Capability
Hope Cp and Pp
• What is Possible if your process is perfectly
Centered
• The Best your process can be
• Process Potential (Entitlement)
Capability Formulas
Sample Mean
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Process Capability
MINITAB™ Example
In order to use
process capability as
a predictive statistic
the data must be
Normal for the tool
we are using in
MINITAB™.
At this point in time we are only attempting to get a Baseline number we can compare to at the end
of problem solving. We are not using it to predict a quality, we want to get a snapshot. DO NOT try
to make your process STABLE BEFORE working on it! Your process is a project because there is
something wrong with it so go figure it out, do not bother playing around with stability yet.
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Process Capability
Again, compare the PPM levels? What does this tell us? Hint look at PPM < LSL.
So what do we do. In looking only at the means you may claim Supplier 2 is the best. Although
Supplier 1 has greater potential as depicted by the Cp measure and it will likely be easier to move
their Mean than deal with the variation issues of Supplier 2. Therefore we will work with Supplier 1.
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Process Capability
MINITAB™ Example (cont.)
The overall long term sigma level is 1.85 for supplier 1 you should also note that it has the potential
to be 1.99 sigma as the process stands in its current state.
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Process Capability
Using data from Column “Bi modal” in the Minitab worksheet “GraphingData.mtw”
The default of MINITAB™ assumes long-term data. Many times you will have short-term data so
adjust MINITAB™ based on Option 1 or 2 as shown here to get a proper analysis.
For Option 1 you will enter the subgroup size as the total number of data points you have in your
short-term study.
For Option 2 you will turn off the “within subgroup analysis” found inside the options selection.
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Process Capability
Here in the Measure Phase stick with observed performance unless your data are Normal. There are
ways to deal with Non-normal data for predictive capability but we will look at that once you have
removed some of the Special Causes from the process. Remember here in the Measure Phase we
get a snapshot of what we are dealing with; at this point do not worry about predictability, we will
eventually get there.
Capability Steps
When we follow the
steps in performing a
capability study on
Select Output for
Improvement We can follow the steps for
Attribute Data we hit calculating capability for
a wall at step 6. #1 Verify Customer
Requirements
Continuous Data until we
Attribute Data is not
reach the question about
considered Normal #2 Validate
so we will use a Specification data Normality…
Limits
different
#3 Collect Sample
mathematical Data
method to estimate
capability. #4 Determine
Data Type
(LT or ST)
#5 Check data
for Normality
Calculate
#6 Z-Score, PPM,
Yield, Capability
Cp, Cpk, Pp, Ppk
#7
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Process Capability
Validate
#2 Specification
Limits
#3 Collect Sample
Data
#4
Calculate
DPU
#5
Find Z-Score
#6 Convert Z-Score
to Cp & Cpk
#7
Z Scores
50
54
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Process Capability
Z Table
In our case we have
to lookup the
proportion for the Z
score of 1.33. This
means that
approximately 9.1%
of our data falls
beyond the upper
spec limit of 54. If
we are interested in
determining parts
per million defective
we would simply
multiply the
proportion .09176 by
one million. In this
case there are
91,760 parts per
million defective.
Attribute Capability
5 0.3 232.7
6 0.0 3.4
Stable process can shift and drift by as much as 1.5 Standard Deviations. Want the theory behind
the 1.5…Google it! It is not important.
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Process Capability
A total of 20,000 calls came in during the month but 2,666 of them
dropped before they were answered (the caller hung up).
We will use this example to demonstrate the capability of a customer service call group.
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Process Capability
"Cpk” is an index (a
simple number) 1. Calculate DPU
which measures how 2. Look up DPU value on the Z-Table
close a process is 3. Find Z Score
running to its 4. Convert Z Score to Cpk, Ppk
specification limits
relative to the natural Example:
variability of the Look up ZLT
process. ZLT = 1.11
Convert ZLT to ZST = 1.11+1.5 = 2.61
A Cpk of at least
1.33 is desired and
2
is about 4 sigma +
with a yield of
.87
99.3790% .
If you want to know how that variation will affect the ability of your process to meet customer
requirements (CTQ's) you should use Cpk.
If you just want to know how much variation the process exhibits a Ppk measurement is fine.
Remember Cpk represents the short-term capability of the process and Ppk represents the long-
term capability of the process.
With the 1.5 shift the above Ppk process capability will be worse than the Cpk short-term capability.
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Process Capability
Notes
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Measure Phase
Wrap Up and Action Items
The Measure Phase is now complete. Get ready to apply it. This module will help you create a
plan to implement the Measure Phase for your project.
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It won t all be
smooth sailing…
You will run into roadblocks throughout your project. Listed here are some common ones that
Belts have to deal with in the Measure Phase.
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DMAIC Roadmap
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
The DMAIC Phases Roadmap is a flow chart of what goals should be reached during each phase of
DMAIC. Please take a moment to review.
Measure Phase
in. Y
Repeatable &
Reproducible?
For example in some cases N
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Over the last decade of deploying Six Sigma it has been found the parallel application of the tools
and techniques in a real project yields the maximum success for the rapid transfer of knowledge.
For maximum benefit you should apply what has been learned in the Measure Phase to a Six
Sigma project. Use this checklist to assist.
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§ Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method within your business
Notes
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Analyze Phase
Welcome to Analyze
Now that we have completed the Measure Phase we are going to jump into the Analyze Phase.
Welcome to Analyze will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
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Welcome to Analyze
Overview
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Collect Data
N
Statistically
Significant?
Y
Update FMEA
Practically
Significant?
N
Y
N
Root
Cause
This provides a process look at putting “Analyze” to work. By the time we complete this phase you
will have a thorough understanding of the various Analyze Phase concepts.
We will build upon the foundational work of the Define and Measure Phases by introducing
techniques to find root causes, then using experimentation and Lean Principles to find solutions to
process problems. Next you will learn techniques for sustaining and maintaining process
performance using control tools and finally placing your process knowledge into a high level process
management tool for controlling and monitoring process performance.
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Analyze Phase
“X” Sifting
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “X Sifting” – determining what the impact of the
inputs to our process are.
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“X” Sifting
Overview
The core
fundamentals of Welcome to Analyze
Multi-Vari Analysis
this phase are
Multi-Vari Analysis X Sifting
and Classes and
Classes and Causes
Causes. Inferential Statistics
Multi-Vari Studies
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DMAIC
(The vital
few)
In the Define Phase you use tools like Process Mapping to identify all possible “X’s”. In the Measure
Phase you use tools to help refine all possible “X’s” like the X-Y Diagram and FMEA.
In the Analyze Phase we start to “dis-assemble” the data to determine what it tells us. This is the fun
part.
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“X” Sifting
Multi-Vari Definition
Multi-Vari Studies – is a tool that graphically displays patterns of variation. Multi-Vari Studies are
used to identify possible X’s or families of variation. These families of variation can hide within a
subgroup, between subgroups or over time.
The Multi-Vari Chart helps in screening factors by using graphical techniques to logically subgroup
discrete X’s (Independent Variables) plotted against a continuous Y (Dependent). By looking at the
pattern of the graphed points conclusions are drawn from about the largest family of variation.
Multi-Vari Chart can also be used to assess capability, stability and graphical relationships between
X’s and Y’s.
At this point in DMAIC Multi-Vari Charts are intended to be used as a passive study but later in the
process they can be used as a graphical representation where factors were intentionally changed.
The only caveat with using MINITABTM to graph the data is that the data must be balanced. Each
source of variation must have the same number of data points across time.
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“X” Sifting
Multi-Vari Example
You are probably asking yourself what is Injection Molding? Well basically an injection molding
machine takes hard plastic pellets and melts them into a fluid. This fluid is then injected into a
mold or die, under pressure, to create products, such as piping and computer cases.
Method
Typically we start with
a data collection sheet Sampling Plans should encompass all three types of
that makes sense variation: Within, Between and Temporal.
based on our 1. Create Sampling Plan
knowledge of the
process. Then follow 2. Gather Passive Date
the steps. 3. Graph Data
If we see only minor 4. Check to see if Variation is Exposed
variation in the
5. Interpret Results
sample it is time to go
back to collect
additional data. When No
your data collection Is
Yes
Create Gather
represents at least Sampling Passive
Graph Variation Interpret
Data Exposed Results
80% of the variation Plan Data
within the process you
should have enough
information to evaluate the graph.
Remember for a Multi-Vari Analysis to work the output must be continuous and the sources
of variation discrete.
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“X” Sifting
Sources of Variation
Within unit, between
unit and temporal Within Unit or Positional
are the classic
causes of variation. – Within piece variation related to the geometry of the part.
A unit can be a – Variation across a single unit containing many individual parts;
single piece or a such as a wafer containing many computer processors.
grouping of pieces – Location in a batch process such as plating.
depending on
whether they were Between Unit or Cyclical
created at unique
times. – Variation among consecutive pieces.
– Variation among groups of pieces.
Multi-Vari Analysis – Variation among consecutive batches.
can be performed on
other processes, Temporal or over time Shift-to-Shift
simply identify the
categorical sources – Day-to-Day
of variation you are – Week-to-Week
interested in.
% Oxygen
Distance to Tank
Injection
Pressure Per
Cavity
Fluid Level
#1
#2
Die Ambient
#3
Temp Temp
#4
Die
Release
An example of Within Unit Variation is measured by differences in the four widgets from a single die
cycle. For example we could measure the wall thickness for each of the four widgets.
Between Unit Variation is measured by differences from sequential die cycles. An example of
Between Unit Variation is comparing the average of wall thickness from die cycle to die cycle.
Temporal Variation is measured over some meaningful time period. For example, we would
compare the average of all the data collected in a time period say the 8 o’clock hour to the 10
o’clock hour.
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“X” Sifting
Sampling Plan
To continue with this Monday Wednesday Friday
example the Multi-Vari Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
sampling plan will be to Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3
gather data for 3 die cycles
on 3 different days for 4 Cavity #1
widgets inside the mold.
Cavity #2
If you find this initial
sampling plan does not Cavity #3
show the variation of interest
it will be necessary to Cavity #4
Cavity #3
Cavity #4
Temporal Variation.
Cavity #3
Cavity #4
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“X” Sifting
List potential X’s and assign them to one of the families of variation.
– This information can be pulled from the X-Y Matrix of the
Measure Phase.
If an X spans one or more families assign %’s to the supposed split.
Now let’s use the same information from the X-Y Matrix created in the Measure Phase. The following
exercise will help you assign one of the variables to the family of variation. If you find yourself with a
variable or X then assign percentages to split. Use your best judgment for the splits. Do not assume
the true X’s causing variation have to come from one in the list.
Focus further effort on the X’s associated with the family of largest
variation.
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“X” Sifting
Data Worksheet
Now create the Multi-
Vari Chart in
MINITABTM.
Run Multi-Vari
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“X” Sifting
To find an example of
within unit variation look
at Unit 1 in the second
time period. Notice the
spread of data is 0.07.
To determine temporal
variation compare the
averages between time periods. It appears time period 3 and 2 have a difference of 0.06.
To determine within unit variation find the unit with the greatest variation like Unit 1 in the second time
period. Notice the spread of data is 0.07. It appears the second unit in the third.
Notice the shifting from unit to unit is not consistent but it certainly jumps up and down. The question
at this point should be: Does this graph represent the problem of concern? Do I see at least 80% of
the variation? Read the units off the Y axis or look in the worksheet. Notice the spread of the data is
0.22 units. If the usual spread of the data is 0.25 units this data set represents 88% of the usual
variation telling us our sampling plan was sufficient to detect the problem.
“X” Sifting
Time
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“X” Sifting
Method
This example is not as easy to draw conclusions because of the source of the data. With the injection
molding process we know we are making the same parts over and over. However in this example of
a call center there is no control over the nature of calls coming in so a single outlier could affect your
judgment.
Location
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“X” Sifting
It is not necessary to force fit any one tool to your project. For transactional projects Multi-Vari may
be difficult to interpret purely graphically. We will re-visit this data set later when working through
Hypothesis Testing.
Multi-Vari Exercise
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“X” Sifting
MVA Solution
Do you recall the
reason why Check for Normality…
Normality is an
issue? Normality is
required if you intend
to use the
information as a
predictive tool. Early
in the Six Sigma
process there is no
reason to assume
your data will be
Normal. Remember
if it is not Normal it
usually makes
finding potential
causes easier. Let’s
work the problem Is that
now. normal?
First check the data
for Normality. Since
the P-value is greater
than 0.05 the data
are considered
Normal. Another method to check Normality is…
Having a graphical
summary is quite
nice since it
provides a picture
of the data as well
as the summary
statistics. The
graphical summary
command in
MINITABTM is an
alternative method
to check for
Normality. Notice
the P-value in this
window is the same
as the previous.
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“X” Sifting
Under the
“Options” tab you
can select the
“Benchmark Z’s
(sigma level)” of the process, or you can leave the default as “Capability stats”. Just for fun you
can run MINITABTM to generate the Capability Analysis using 500 as the upper spec limit then run it
again as the lower spec limit and see what happens to the statistics.
Is this process in
trouble? The answer
is yes since the Z
bench value is
negative! That is very
bad. To correct this
problem the process
has to be set in such
a manner that none of
the bottles are ever
under-filled while
trying to minimize the
amount of overfill.
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“X” Sifting
The graph shows the variation within a unit is consistent across all the data. The variation between
units also looks consistent across all the data. What seems to stand out is the machine may be set
up differently from first shift to second. That should be easy to fix! What is the largest source of
variation? Within Unit Variation is the largest, Temporal is the next largest (and probably easiest to
fix) and Between Unit Variation comes in last.
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“X” Sifting
The data sheet is now balanced meaning there is an equal number of data points for each condition
in the data table and ready for data to be entered.
If you were to label the units 1 – 9 instead of 1 – 3 per time period MINITABTM would generate an
error message and would not be able to create the graphic. Think in terms of generic units instead
of being specific in labeling.
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“X” Sifting
Classes of Distributions
By now you are
convinced Multi-
Multi-Vari is a tool to help screen X’s by visualizing three
Vari is a tool that
helps screen X’s primary sources of variation. Later we will perform
by visualizing Hypothesis Tests based on our findings.
three primary
sources of
variation. At this
At this point we will review classes and causes of distributions that
point we will can also help us screen X’s to perform Hypothesis Tests.
review classes – Normal Distribution
and causes of
distributions that – Non-normality – 4 Primary Classifications
can also help us
screen X’s to 1. Skewness
perform 2. Multiple Modes
Hypothesis Tests.
3. Kurtosis
4. Granularity
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6
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“X” Sifting
Normal Distribution
However just
because a
distribution of sample data looks Normal does not mean the variation cannot be reduced and a new
Normal Distribution created.
Non-Normal Distributions
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“X” Sifting
Skewness Classification
When a distribution
is not symmetrical it Potential Causes of Skewness
is Skewed. Left Skew Right Skew
Generally a Skewed
distribution longest 60
40
tail points in the 50
Frequency
Frequency
direction of the 30 40
Skew. 20 30
20
10
10
0 0
10 15 20 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Machine A Machine B
Operator A Operator B
Payment Method A Payment Method B Combined
Interviewer A Interviewer B
Sample A + Sample B
=
What causes Mixed Distributions? Mixed Distributions occur when data comes from several
sources that are supposed to be the same but are not.
Note both distributions that formed the combined Skewed Distribution started out as Normal
Distributions.
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“X” Sifting
Just because Non-Linear Relationships occur when the X and Y scales are
your Input (X) is different for a given change in X.
Normally
Distributed about 10
a Mean the
Output (Y) may
not be Normally
Distributed.
Y
5
Marginal Distribution
of Y
0 50 100
X
Marginal Distribution
of X
1-5 Interactions
Interactions occur when two inputs interact with each other to have
a larger impact on Y than either would by themselves.
On
35
Room Temperature
Spray
Off
30
25
No Spray
If you find two inputs have a large impact on Y but would not effect Y by themselves this is called a
Interaction.
For instance if you spray an aerosol can in the direction of a flame what would happen to room
temperature? What do you see regarding these distributions?
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“X” Sifting
Time
The distribution is dependent on time. relationships
occur when the
distribution is
30
dependent on
time. Some
Marginal Distribution
examples are
25 tool wear,
chemical bath
depletion, stock
of Y
prices, etc.
20
10 20 30 40 50
Time
Find the
worksheet
named
“Distrb1.MTW”
and you will
see the column
named Pos
Skew to chart
this graphical
summary in
MINITABTM.
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“X” Sifting
Kurtosis 2
The next
Kurtosis refers to the shape of the tails. classification of
– Leptokurtic Non-normal
Data is
– Platykurtic
Kurtosis.
• Different combinations of distributions causes the resulting There are two
overall shapes. types of
Kurtosis are
Leptokurtic and
Platykurtic.
Leptokurtic is
generally
peaked with
long-tails while
Platykurtic are
flat with short-
tails.
Leptokurtic Platykurtic
Peaked with Long-Tails Flat with Short-Tails
Platykurtic
Negative coefficient of Kurtosis indicates Platykurtic distribution. The data set for this distribution is
in the worksheet “Distrib1.MTW” and under column “Flat.”
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“X” Sifting
Leptokurtic
Positive Kurtosis value indicates Leptokurtic distribution. The data set for this distribution is in the
worksheet “Distrib1.MTW” and under column “LongTail.”
Multiple Modes 3
Multiple Modes have such dramatic combinations of underlying sources that they show distinct
modes. They may have shown as Platykurtic but were far enough apart to see separation.
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“X” Sifting
Bimodal Distributions
If you see an
extreme Outlier it
usually has its on
cause or own
source of variation.
It is relatively easy
to isolate the cause
by looking on the X
axis of the
Histogram.
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“X” Sifting
Having multiple
Outliers is more
difficult to
correct. This
action typically
means multiple
inputs.
Granular 4
Now let’s take a moment to notice the P-value in the Normal Probability Plot, it is definitely smaller
than 0.05! There simply is not enough resolution in the data.
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“X” Sifting
Normal Example
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“X” Sifting
Notes
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Analyze Phase
Inferential Statistics
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Inferential Statistics
Overview
The core
fundamentals of Welcome to Analyze
this phase are
Inferential X Sifting Inferential Statistics
Statistics, Nature
of Sampling and Inferential Statistics Nature of Sampling
Central Limit
Theorem. Intro to Hypothesis Testing Central Limit Theorem
Nature of Inference
One objective of Six Sigma is to move from only describing the nature of the data or descriptive
statistics to that of inferring what will happen in the future with our data or Inferential Statistics.
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Inferential Statistics
So many
questions….?
As with most things you have learned associated with Six Sigma – there are defined steps to be
taken.
Types of Error
Types of error
contribute to 1. Error in sampling
uncertainty when – Error due to differences among samples drawn at random from the
trying to infer
population (luck of the draw).
with data.
– This is the only source of error that statistics can accommodate.
There are four
types of error 2. Bias in sampling
that are
explained above. – Error due to lack of independence among random samples or due to
systematic sampling procedures (height of horse jockeys only).
3. Error in measurement
– Error in the measurement of the samples (MSA/GR&R).
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Inferential Statistics
Population
– EVERY data point that has ever been or ever will be generated from a
given characteristic.
Sample
– A portion (or subset) of the population, either at one time or over time.
X
X X
X X
Observation
– An individual measurement.
Let’s review a few definitions: A population is EVERY data point that has ever been or ever will be
generated from a given characteristic. A sample is a portion (or subset) of the population either at
one time or over time. An observation is an individual measurement.
Significance
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Inferential Statistics
The Mission
Your mission, which you have chosen to accept, is to reduce cycle time, reduce the error rate,
reduce costs, reduce investment, improve service level, improve throughput, reduce lead time,
increase productivity… change the output metric of some process, etc…
In statistical terms this translates to the need to move the process Mean and/or reduce the process
Standard Deviation
You will be making decisions about how to adjust key process input variables based on sample
data, not population data - that means you are taking some risks.
How will you know your key process output variable really changed and is not just an unlikely
sample? The Central Limit Theorem helps us understand the risk we are taking and is the basis for
using sampling to estimate population parameters.
Imagine you have some population. The individual values of this population form some distribution.
Take a sample of some of the individual values and calculate the sample Mean.
The Central Limit Theorem says as the sample size becomes large this new distribution (the sample
Mean distribution) will form a Normal Distribution no matter what the shape of the population
distribution of individuals.
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Inferential Statistics
Every statistic derives from a sampling distribution. For instance, if you were to keep taking
samples from the population over and over a distribution could be formed for calculating Means,
Medians, Mode, Standard Deviations, etc. As you can see the above sample distributions each
have a different statistic. The goal here is to successfully make inferences regarding the statistical
data.
To demonstrate
how sampling
distributions
work we will
create some Open Minitab Worksheet “Die Example”.
Create a sample
of 1,000
individual rolls of
a die that we will
store in a
variable named
“Population”.
From the
population we
will draw five
random
samples.
Roll em!
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Inferential Statistics
Sampling Distributions
To draw random samples from the population follow the command shown below and repeat four
times for the other columns.
Sampling Error
Calculate the Mean and Standard Deviation for each column Now compare
and compare the sample statistics to the population. the Mean and
Standard
Stat > Basic Statistics > Display Descriptive Statistics… Deviation of the
samples of 5
Descriptive Statistics: Population, Sample1, Sample2, Sample3, Sample4, Sample5 observations to
the population.
Variable N N* Mean SE Mean StDev Minimum Q1 Median Q3 Maximum What do you
Population 1000 0 3.5510 0.0528 1.6692 1.0000 2.0000 4.0000 5.0000 6.0000 see?
Sample1 5 0 3.400 0.927 2.074 1.000 1.500 3.000 5.500 6.000
Range in Mean 1.2 (4.600 – 3.400) Range in StDev 0.591 (2.074 – 1.483)
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Inferential Statistics
Sampling Error
Create 5 more
columns of Create 5 more columns of data sampling 10
data sampling observations from the population.
10
observations Calc> Random Data> Sample from Columns…
from the
population.
Range in Mean 0.9 (4.100 – 3.200) Range in StDev 0.668 (2.066 – 1.398)
Can you tell what is happening to the Mean and Standard Deviation? When the sample size
increases the values of the Mean and Standard Deviation decrease.
What do you think would happen if the sample increased? Let’s try 30 for a sample size.
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Inferential Statistics
Sampling Distributions
Feeling lucky…?
Now instead of looking at the effect of sample size on error we will create a sampling distribution
of averages. Follow along to generate your own random data.
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Inferential Statistics
Sampling Distributions
The commands shown above will create new columns that are now averages from the columns of
random population data. We have 1000 averages of sample size 5 and 1000 averages of sample
size 10.
In MINITABTM follow the above commands. The Histogram being generated makes it easy to see
what happened when the sample size was increased.
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Inferential Statistics
Different Distributions
Good news: the Mean of the sample Better news: I can reduce my
Mean distribution is the Mean of the uncertainty about the population
population. Mean by increasing my sample size n.
have a Mean
Bigger is Better!
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Inferential Statistics
So What?
A Practical Example
What is the likelihood of getting a sample with a 2 second difference? This could be caused either
by implementing changes or could be a result of random sampling variation, sampling error. The
95% confidence interval exceeds the 2 second difference (delta) seen as a result. What is the delta
caused from? This could be a true difference in performance or random sampling error. This is why
you look further than only relying on point estimators.
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Inferential Statistics
Theoretical distribution of
sample Means for n = 2
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Inferential Statistics
Standard Error
0 5 10 20 30
Sample Size
This is also the point at which the t and Z distributions become nearly
equivalent.
When comparing Standard Error with sample size the rate of change in the Standard Error
approaches zero at about 30 samples. This is why a sample size of 30 comes up often in
discussions on sample size.
This is the point at which the t and the Z distributions become nearly equivalent. If you look at a Z
table and a t table to compare Z=1.96 to t at 0.975 as sample approaches infinite degrees of
freedom they are equal.
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Inferential Statistics
Notes
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Analyze Phase
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “Introduction to Hypothesis Testing”.
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Our goal is to improve our Process Capability. This translates to the need to move the process Mean
(or proportion) and reduce the Standard Deviation.
§ Because it is too expensive or too impractical (not to mention theoretically impossible) to
collect population data we will make decisions based on sample data.
§ Because we are dealing with sample data there is some uncertainty about the true
population parameters.
Hypothesis Testing helps us make fact-based decisions about whether there are different population
parameters or that the differences are just due to expected sample variation.
96 100 104 108 112 116 120 102 105 108 111 114 117 120
O bserv ed P erformance Exp. Within P erformance Exp. O v erall Performance O bserv ed Performance Exp. Within P erformance Exp. O v erall Performance
P P M < LSL 6666.67 P P M < LSL 115.74 P P M < LSL 55078.48 PP M < LSL 0.00 P PM < LSL 0.00 P PM < LSL 0.00
P P M > U SL 0.00 P P M > U SL 0.71 P P M > U SL 18193.49 PP M > U SL 0.00 P PM > U SL 0.00 P PM > U SL 0.00
P P M Total 6666.67 P P M Total 116.45 P P M Total 73271.97 PP M Total 0.00 P PM Total 0.00 P PM Total 0.00
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The purpose of appropriate Hypothesis Testing is to integrate the Voice of the Process with the
Voice of the Business to make data-based decisions to resolve problems.
Hypothesis Testing can help avoid high costs of experimental efforts by using existing data. This
can be likened to:
Local store costs versus mini bar expenses.
There may be a need to eventually use experimentation but careful data analysis can
indicate a direction for experimentation if necessary.
Recall from the discussion on classes and cause of distributions that a data set may seem Normal
yet still be made up of multiple distributions. Hypothesis Testing can help establish a statistical
difference between factors from different distributions.
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
freq
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
x
Because of not typically having the capability to test an entire population we must use samples from
the population to make inferences. Since we are using sample data not the entire population we
need to have methods assure the sample is a fair representation of the population.
When we use a proper sample size Hypothesis Testing gives us a way to detect the likelihood a
sample came from a particular distribution. Sometimes the questions can be: Did our sample come
from a population with a Mean of 100? Is our sample variance significantly different than the
variance of the population? Is it different from a target?
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Significant Difference
µ1! µ2!
Sample 1 Sample 2
Do you see a difference between Sample 1 and Sample 2? There may be a real difference
between the samples shown; however, we may not be able to determine a statistical difference. Our
confidence is established statistically which has an effect on the necessary sample size. Our ability
to detect a difference is directly linked to sample size and in turn whether we practically care about
such a small difference.
Detecting Significance
We will discuss the difference between practical and statistical throughout this session. We can
affect the outcome of a statistical test simply by changing the sample size.
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Let’s take a moment to explore the concept of Practical Differences versus Statistical Differences.
Detecting Significance
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Hypothesis Testing
DICE Example
You have rolled dice before have you not? You know dice that you would find in a board game or in
Las Vegas.
Well assume we suspect a single die is “Fixed.” Meaning it has been altered in some form or
fashion to make a certain number appear more often than it rightfully should.
Consider the example on how we would go about determining if in fact a die was loaded.
If we threw the die five times and got five ones what would you conclude? How sure can you be?
The probability of getting just a single one. The probability of getting five ones.
We could throw a die a number of times and track how many times each face
occurred. With a standard die we would expect each face to occur 1/6 or
16.67% of the time.
If we threw the die 5 times and got 5 ones what would you conclude? How
sure can you be?
– Pr (1 one) = 0.1667 Pr (5 ones) = (0.1667)5 = 0.00013
There are approximately 1.3 chances out of 10,000 we could have gotten 5
ones with a standard die.
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Hypothesis Testing
When it comes to
Hypothesis Testing,
you must look at
three focus points
to help validate
your claim. These
points are Type I,
α
Type II and Sample
Size.
DECISIONS
β n
Statistical Hypothesis
A hypothesis is a predetermined theory about the nature of, or relationships between, variables.
Statistical tests can prove (with a certain degree of confidence) a relationship exists. With
Hypothesis Testing the primary assumption is the null hypothesis is true. Therefore statistically you
can only reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.
If the null is rejected this means you have data that supports the alternative hypothesis.
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There of two types of error Type I with an associated risk equal to alpha (the first letter in the
Greek alphabet), and of course named the other one Type II with an associated risk equal to beta.
The formula reads: alpha is equal to the probability of making a Type 1 error or alpha is equal to
the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.
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Alpha Risk
Region of Region of
DOUBT DOUBT
The beta risk or Type 2 Error (also called the “Consumer’s Risk”) is the probability we could be
wrong in saying two or more things are the same when, in fact, they are different.
Actual Conditions
Not Different Different
(Ho is True) (Ho is False)
Another way to describe beta risk is failing to recognize an improvement. Chances are the sample
size was inappropriate or the data was imprecise and/or inaccurate.
Reading the formula: Beta is equal to the probability of making a Type 2 error.
Or: Beta is equal to the probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis given that the null
hypothesis is false.
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Beta Risk
Theoretical Distribution
of Means
When n = 30
δ=5
S=1
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Large S
These are typical questions you will experience or hear during sampling. The most common answer
is “It depends.”. Primarily because someone could say a sample of 30 is perfect where that may
actually be too many. Point is you do not know what the right sample is without the test.
Answer: No, not if you took the correct number of samples the
first time!
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40 50 60 70
Here is a Hypothesis Testing roadmap for Continuous Data. This is a great reference tool while you
are conducting Hypothesis Tests.
Normal
s
ou
t inu
n
Co Data
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s
u ou
n
nti
C o D a ta Non Normal
Attribute Data
ute
t t rib
A ata
D
One Factor Two Factors
Two or More
One Sample Two Samples Samples
Minitab:
Stat - Tables - Chi-Square Test
If P-value < 0.05 the factors are not
independent
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Notes
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Notes
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Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1”.
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Overview
The core
fundamentals of this Welcome to Analyze
phase are
Hypothesis Testing, X Sifting
Tests for Central
Tendency, Tests for Inferential Statistics
Variance and
ANOVA. Intro to Hypothesis Testing Sample Size
We will examine the
Hypothesis Testing ND P1 Testing Means
meaning of each of
these and show you Analyzing Results
how to apply them. Hypothesis Testing ND P2
T-tests are used to compare a Mean against a target and to compare Means from two different
samples and to compare paired data. When comparing multiple Means it is inappropriate to use a t-
test. Analysis of variance or ANOVA is used when it is necessary to compare more than 2 Means.
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1 Sample t
Here we are looking for the region in which we can be 95% certain our true population Mean will lie.
This is based on a calculated average, Standard Deviation, number of trials and a given alpha risk
of .05.
A 1-sample t-test is used to compare an expected population Mean to a
In order for the Mean target.
of the sample to be
considered not
significantly different
than the target the
target must fall within Target µsample
the confidence
interval of the sample MINITABTM performs a one sample t-test or t-confidence interval for the
Mean. Mean.
If you remember from earlier, 95% of the area under the curve of a Normal Distribution falls within
plus or minus 2 Standard Deviations. Confidence intervals are based on your selected alpha level so
if you selected an alpha of 5% the confidence interval would be 95% which is roughly plus or minus 2
Standard Deviations. Using your eye to guesstimate you can see the target value falls within plus or
minus 2 Standard Deviations of the sampling distribution of sample size 2.
If you used a sample of 30 could you tell if the target was different? Just using your eye it appears
the target is outside the 95% confidence interval of the Mean. Luckily MINITABTM makes this very
easy…
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Sample Size
Instead of going
through the dreadful
hand calculations of
sample size we will
Three fields must be filled in
use MINITABTM. and one left blank.
Three fields must be
filled in and one left
blank in the sample
size window.
MINITABTM will solve
for the third. If you
want to know the
sample size you must
enter the difference,
which is the shift that
must be detected. It
is common to state
the difference in terms
of “generic” Standard Deviations when you do not have an estimate for the Standard Deviation of
the process. For example, if you want to detect a shift of 1.5 Standard Deviations enter that in
difference and enter 1 for Standard Deviation. If you knew the Standard Deviation was 0.8 enter it
for Standard Deviation and 1.2 for the difference (which is a 1.5 Standard Deviation shift in terms of
real values).
If you are unsure of the desired difference or in many cases simply get stuck with a sample size that
you did not have a lot of control over, MINITABTM will tell you how much of a difference can be
detected. You, as a practitioner, must be careful when drawing Practical Conclusions because it is
possible to have statistical significance without practical significance. In other words - do a reality
check. MINITABTM has made it easy to see an assortment of sample sizes and differences.
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1-Sample t Example
1. Practical Problem:
• We are considering changing suppliers for a part we currently purchase
from a supplier that charges us a premium for the hardening process.
• The proposed new supplier has provided us with a sample of their
product. They have stated they can maintain a given characteristic of 5
on their product.
• We want to test the samples to determine if their claim is accurate.
2. Statistical Problem:
Ho: µN.S. = 5
Ha: µN.S. ≠ 5
4. Sample Size:
• Open the MINITABTM worksheet: Exh_Stat.MTW .
• Use the C1 column: Values
– In this case, the new supplier sent 9
samples for evaluation.
– How much of a difference can be
detected with this sample?
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Hypothesis Testing
Follow along in
MINITABTM and
as you can see
we will be able to
detect a This means we will be able to
difference of 1.24 detect a difference of only 1.24 if
with the sample of the population has a Standard
Deviation of 1 unit.
9.
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1-Sample t Example
Histogram of Values
Based on the graph we can say there is a statistical difference or reject the null hypothesis for the
following reason: A Histogram is not especially interesting when there are so few data points but it
does show the 95% confidence interval of the data along with the hypothesized value of 5 noted as
the Ho or null hypothesis.
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The Box Plot shows a different representation of the data but the conclusion is the same.
As you will see the conclusion is the same but the Dot Plot is just another representation of data.
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Session Window
Ho Ha
n
(Xi − X) 2
s= ∑
One-Sample T: Values i =1 n −1
Test of mu = 5 vs not = 5 S
SE Mean =
n
Shown here is the MINITABTM Session Window output for the 1-Sample t-test.
Since the P-value of 0.034 is less than 0.05 reject the null hypothesis.
X Ho
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Here are the manual calculations of the 1-samle t, verify that MINITABTM is correct.
degrees of T - Distribution
freedom
.600 .700 .800 .900 .950 .975 .990 .995
1 0.325 0.727 1.376 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657
2 0.289 0.617 1.061 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925
3 0.277 0.584 0.978 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841
4 0.271 0.569 0.941 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604
5 0.267 0.559 0.920 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032
µ!
-2.56
The data supports the alternative -2.306 2.306
hypothesis that the estimate for the
Mean of the population is not 5.0. α/2=.025
0
Critical Regions
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4.5989 to 4.9789
4.5989 X Ho
4.9789
4.7889
1-Sample t Exercise
3. Are we on Target?
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Normal
s
uou
n
nti
Co Data
2 Sample t-test
Notice the
difference in the A 2-sample t-test is used to compare two Means.
Stat > Basic Statistics > 2-Sample t
hypothesis for two-
tailed vs. one-tailed MINITABTM performs an independent two-sample t-test to generate a
test. This confidence interval.
terminology is only
used to know which Use 2-Sample t to perform a Hypothesis Test and compute a
column to look confidence interval of the difference between two population Means
down in the t-table. when the population Standard Deviations, σ’s, are unknown.
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Sample Size
Instead of going through the dreadful hand calculations of sample size we will use MINITABTM;
select “Stat>Power and Sample Size>2-Sample t”. Three fields must be filled in and one left blank
in the sample size window. MINITABTM will solve for the third. If you want to know the sample size
you must enter the difference which is the shift that must be detected. It is common to state the
difference in terms of “generic” Standard Deviations when you do not have an estimate for the
Standard Deviation of the process. For example if you want to detect a shift of 1.5 Standard
Deviations enter that in difference and enter 1 for Standard Deviation. If you knew the Standard
Deviation and it was 0.8 enter it for Standard Deviation and 1.2 for the difference (which is a 1.5
Standard Deviation shift in terms of real values).
If you are unsure of the desired difference or in many cases simply get stuck with a sample size
you did not have a lot of control over MINITABTM will tell you how much of a difference can be
detected. You as a practitioner must be careful when drawing Practical Conclusions because it is
possible to have statistical
significance without practical Power and Sample Size
significance. In other words - do a 2-Sample t Test
reality check. MINITABTM has made Testing Mean 1 = Mean 2 (versus not equal)
it easy to see an assortment of Calculating power for Mean 1 = Mean 2 + difference
sample sizes and differences. Try Alpha = 0.05 Assumed Standard Deviation = 1
the example shown. Sample
Size Power Difference
As you can see we used the same
10 0.9 1.53369
command here just as in the 1- The various sample
15 0.9 1.22644 sizes show how much
sample t. Do you think the results
20 0.9 1.05199 of a difference can be
are different?
25 0.9 0.93576 detected assuming the
Standard Deviation = 1.
Correct, the results are different. 30 0.9 0.85117
35 0.9 0.78605
40 0.9 0.73392
The sample size is for each group.
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2-Sample t Example
The only way we can work with the data in the BTU.In is by unstacking the data by damper type.
4. Sample Size:
• Open the MINITABTM worksheet: Furnace.MTW
• Scroll through the data to see how the data is coded.
• In order to work with the data in the BTU.In column we will need
to unstack the data by damper type.
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2-Sample t Example
We will unstack the data in BTU.In using the subscripts in Damper. Store the unstacked data after
the last column in use. Check the “Name the columns containing the unstacked data” box. Then
click “OK”.
Notice the “unstacked” data for each damper. We now have two columns.
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2-Sample t Example
Now let’s perform a 2 Sample t example. In MINITABTM select “Stat>Power and Sample size>2-
Sample t”.
For the field “Sample Sizes:” enter ‘40 space 50’ because our data set has unequal sample sizes
which is not uncommon. The smallest difference that can be detected is based on the smallest
sample size, so in this case it is: 0.734.
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The data is considered Normal since the P-value is greater than 0.05.
This is the Normality Plot for damper 2. Is the data Normal? It is Normal, continuing down the
roadmap…
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In MINITABTM select “Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance”. This will allow us to perform a
Bartlett’s Test.
Sample 1
Sample 2
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Let’s continue along the roadmap… Perform the 2-Sample t-test; be sure to check the box “Assume
equal variances”.
Box Plot
The Box Plots do not show much of a difference between the dampers.
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Calculated
Average n
(Xi − X) 2
s= ∑
i =1 n −1
S
SE Mean =
n
Ho: µ1 = µ2
Ha: µ1≠ or < or > µ2
Exercise
2. The up and coming Billy Bob Jr., looking to prove himself,
wants a comparison done on the Clor.Lev_Post data from
the two types of distributors in order to determine if there is
any difference between the two products.
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2. Statistical Problem:
H o: µ 1 = µ 2
H a: µ 1 ≠ µ 2
To unstack the data follow the steps here. This will generate two new columns of data shown on the
next page…
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By unstacking
the data we how
have the Clor.Lev • Clor.Lev_Post_1 =
data separated Distributor 1
by the distributor
it came from.
• Clor.Lev_Post_2 =
Now let’s move
on to trying to Distributor 2
determine correct
sample size.
Follow path in MINITABTM: “Stat > Power and Sample Size > 2-Sample t…”
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In this case:
.7339 rounded to.734
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Check Normality for Clor.Lev_Post_1. The result shows us a P-value of 0.304 so our data is
Normal. Recall if the P-value is greater than .05 then we will consider our data Normal.
Check Normality for Clor.Lev_Post_2. The result shows us a P-value of 0.941 so our data is also
Normal.
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MINITABTM Path: “Stat > ANOVA > Test for Equal Variances…”
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This tells us there is no statistically significant difference in the variance in these two data sets.
What does this mean….We can finally run a 2 sample t–test with equal variances?
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Normal
us
inuo
nt
Co Data
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Normality Test
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Medians of Samples
This is the output from MINITABTM. Notice even though the names of the columns in MINITABTM
were Sample 1 and Sample 3 MINITABTM used Factor levels 1 and 2 to differentiate the outcome.
We have to interpret the meaning for factor levels properly; it is simply the difference between the
samples labeled one and three in our worksheet.
UNCHECK
Assume equal
variances box.
You can see there is very little difference in the 2-Sample t-tests.
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Boxplot of Stacked by C4
15 Indicates
Sample
Means
10
Stacked
-5
1 2
C4
The Box Plot shows no difference between the Means. The overall box is smaller for sample on the
left; an indication for the difference in variance.
15
Indicates
10 Sample
Means
Stacked
-5
1 2
C4
By looking at this Individual Value Plot you can notice a big spread or variance of the data.
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Two-Sample T-Test
(Variances Not Equal)
What does the P-value of 0.996 mean? After conducting a 2-sample t-test there is no significant
difference between the Means.
Normal
s
uou
n
nti
Co Data
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Paired t-test
• A Paired t-test is used to compare the Means of two measurements from the
same samples generally used as a before and after test.
Example
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Example (cont.)
In MINITABTM open “Stat>Power and Sample size>1-Sample t”. Enter in the appropriate Sample
Size, Power Value and Standard Deviation.
Now that s
a tee test!
Given the sample size of 10 we will be able to detect a difference of 1.15. If this was your process
you would need to decide if this was good enough. In this case, is a difference of 1.15 enough to
practically want to change the material used for the soles of the children’s shoes?
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For the next test we must first calculate the difference between the two columns. In MINITABTM
open “Calc>Calculator”. We placed Mat-B first in the equation shown because it was generally
higher than the values for Mat-A.
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1-Sample t
Box Plot
Analyzing the Box Plot we see the null hypothesis falls outside the confidence interval so we reject
the null hypothesis. The P-value is also less than 0.05. Given this we are 95% confident there is a
difference in the wear between the two materials used for the soles of children’s shoes.
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Paired T-Test
As you will see the conclusions are the same but simply presented differently.
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If you analyze this as a 2-sample t–test it simply compares the Means of Material A to Material B.
The power of the paired test is it increases the sensitivity of the test without having to look at a
series of other factors.
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We must confirm the differences (now in a new calculated column) are from a Normal Distribution.
This was confirmed with the Anderson-Darling Normality Test by doing a graphical summary under
Basic Statistics.
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Even though the Mean difference is 0.23 we have a 95% confidence interval that
includes zero so we know the 1-sample t-test’s null hypothesis was failed to be
rejected . We cannot conclude the two labs have a difference in lab results.
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Normal
ous
u
ntin a
Co Dat
You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1.
Notes
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Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2”.
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Overview
We are now
moving into
Welcome to Analyze
Hypothesis
Testing Normal
Data Part 2 where X Sifting
we will address
Calculating Inferential Statistics
Sample Size,
Variance Testing Intro to Hypothesis Testing
and Analyzing
Results. Hypothesis Testing ND P1
Calculate Sample Size
We will examine Hypothesis Testing ND P2 Variance Testing
the meaning of
each of these and Analyze Results
Hypothesis Testing NND P1
show you how to
apply them.
Hypothesis Testing NND P2
Tests of Variance
Normal Data
– 1 Sample to a target
– 2 Samples: F-Test
– 3 or More Samples: Bartlett’s Test
Non-Normal Data
– 2 or more samples: Levene’s Test
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1-Sample Variance
2. Statistical Problem:
Ho: σ2 = 0.10 or Ho: σ = 0.31
Ha: σ2 ≠ 0.10 Ha: σ ≠ 0.31
3. 1-sample variance:
α = 0.05 β = 0.10
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1-Sample Variance
4. Sample Size:
• Open the MINITABTM worksheet: Exh_Stat.MTW
• This is the same file used for the 1 Sample t example.
– We will assume the sample size is adequate.
Typically shifting a
Mean is easier to
accomplish in a
process than reducing
variance. The new
supplier would be
worth continuing the
relationship to see if they can increase the Mean slightly while maintaining the reduced variance.
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2. Statistical Problem:
H o: σ 1 = σ 2
H a: σ 1 ≠ σ 2
4. Sample Size:
Now open the data set • Open the MINITABTM worksheet: Exh_aov.MTW
“EXH_AOV.MTW”.
Follow along in
MINITABTM.
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Check
Normality. 5. Statistical Solution:
Stat>Basic Statistics>Normality Test
According to the graph we have Normal data. Based on the “p-value” we can see that the data
does follow a Normal distribution.
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This graph shows a test of Equal Variance displaying Bonferroni 95% confidence for the response
Standard Deviation at each level. As you will see the Bartlett’s and Levene’s test are displayed in
the same Session Window. The asymmetry of the intervals is due to the Skewness of the chi-
square distribution.
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Use this if
data is Normal and
for Factors > or = 2
Use this if
data is Non-normal and
for Factors > or = 2
Does the Session Window have the same P-values as the Graphical Analysis? However, from a
sample point of view and the change in variance we need to detect, we also suspect that he sample
size may or may not be adequate. So one of the key aspects of the ANOVA test is that one needs a
minimum sample size while they look for either significant differences either in the mean or variance.
It is critical to perform that test prior to compiling the data to plan an ANOVA.
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2. The quality manager decided to investigate the effect of the raw
material supplier. He wants to see if the variation of the product
quality is different when using supplier A or supplier B. He wants to
be at least 95% confident the variances are similar when using the
two suppliers.
First we want to do a graphical summary of the two samples from the two suppliers.
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The P-value is greater than 0.05 for both Anderson-Darling Normality Tests so we conclude the
samples are from Normally Distributed populations because we “failed to reject” the null hypothesis
that the data sets are from Normal Distributions.
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Continue to
determine if
they are of
Equal Variance.
For “Response:”
enter ‘ppm VOC’
Note MINITABTM
defaults to 95%
confidence interval
which is exactly the
level we want to test
for this problem.
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Because the two populations were considered to be Normally Distributed the F-test is used to
evaluate whether the variances (Standard Deviation squared) are equal.
The P-value of the F-test was greater than 0.05 so we “fail to reject” the null hypothesis.
So once again in English: The variances are equal between the results from the two suppliers on our
product’s ppm VOC level.
Normal
s
uou
n
nti
Co Data
Two Samples
Two Samples
Two Samples Two Samples
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Purpose of ANOVA
Analysis of Variance extends the two sample t-test for testing the
equality of two population Means to a more general null hypothesis
of comparing the equality of more than two Means versus them not
all being equal.
– The classification variable, or factor, usually has three or more
levels (If there are only two levels, a t-test can be used).
– Allows you to examine differences among Means using multiple
comparisons.
– The ANOVA test statistic is:
Is the between group variation large enough to be distinguished from the within group variation?
(δ)
X
X
X X
X
X X X
µ1 µ2
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Calculating ANOVA
Where:
G = the number of groups (levels in the study)
xij = the individual in the jth group
nj = the number of individuals in the jth group or level
X = the grand Mean
Xj = the Mean of the jth group or level
delta
(δ)
Within Group Variation
∑ nj (Xj − X) 2 ∑∑ (Xij − X) 2 ∑ ∑ (X ij − X) 2
j=1 j=1 i =1 j=1 i =1
Calculating ANOVA
k
1 − (1 − α )
where k = number of pairs of means
so, for 7 pairs of means and an α = 0.05 :
7
1 - (1 - 0.05) = 0.30
or 30% alpha risk
The reason we do not use a t-test to evaluate series of Means is because the alpha risk increases as
the number of Means increases. If we had 7 pairs of Means and an alpha of 0.05 our actual alpha risk
could be as high as 30%. Notice we did not say it was 30% only that it could be as high as 30% which
is quite unacceptable.
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Three Samples
We have three potential suppliers claiming to have equal levels of quality. Supplier B provides a
considerably lower purchase price than either of the other two vendors. We would like to choose the
lowest cost supplier but we must ensure we do not effect the quality of our raw material.
Compare P-values.
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According to the
data there is no
significant
difference in the
variance of the
three suppliers.
ANOVA in MINITABTM
Stat>ANOVA>One-Way Unstacked
Click on Graphs… ,
Check Boxplots of data
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ANOVA
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ANOVA
Before looking up the f critical value you must first know what the degrees of freedom are. The
purpose of the ANOVA’s test statistic uses variance between the Means divided by variance within the
groups. Therefore, the degrees of freedom would be 3 suppliers minus 1 for 2 degrees of freedom.
The denominator would be 5 samples minus 1 (for each supplier) multiplied by 3 suppliers, or 12
degrees of freedom. As you can see the critical F value is 3.89 and since the calculated f of 1.40 not
close to the critical value we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
F-Calc F-Critical
D/N 1 2 3 4
1 161.40 199.50 215.70 224.60
2 18.51 19.00 19.16 19.25
3 10.13 9.55 9.28 9.12
4 7.71 6.94 6.59 6.39
5 6.61 5.79 5.41 5.19
6 5.99 5.14 4.76 4.53
7 5.59 4.74 4.35 4.12
8 5.32 4.46 4.07 3.84
9 5.12 4.26 3.86 3.63
10 4.96 4.10 3.71 3.48
11 4.84 3.98 3.59 3.36
12 4.75 3.89 3.49 3.26
13 4.67 3.81 3.41 3.18
14 4.60 3.74 3.34 3.11
15 4.54 3.68 3.29 3.06
Sample Size
Let’s check on how much difference we can see with a sample of 5.
Will having a
sample of 5 show
a difference?
After crunching
the numbers a
sample of 5 can
only detect a
difference of 2.56
Standard
Deviations. Which
means the Mean
would have to be
at least 2.56
Standard
Deviations until we
could see a
difference. To help
elevate this
problem a larger
sample should be used. If there is a larger sample you would be able to have a more sensitive
reading for the Means and the variance.
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ANOVA Assumptions
Residual Plots
To generate the residual plots in MINITABTM select “Stat>ANOVA>One-way Unstacked>Graphs”
then select “Individual value plot” and check all three types of plots.
Stat>ANOVA>One-Way Unstacked>Graphs
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Histogram of Residuals
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ANOVA Exercise
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In “Variables:” enter
‘ppm VOC’
In “By Variables:”
enter ‘Shift’
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P-Value 0.446
The P-value is greater than 0.05
for both Anderson-Darling
Normality Tests so we conclude
the samples are from Normally
Distributed populations because
we failed to reject the null
hypothesis that the data sets are
from Normal Distributions.
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Since the P-value of the ANOVA test is less than 0.05 we “reject” the null hypothesis that the Mean
product quality as measured in ppm VOC is the same from all shifts.
We “accept” the alternate hypothesis that the Mean product quality is different from at least one
shift.
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You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2.
Notes
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Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data
Part 1
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1”.
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Overview
The core
fundamentals of this Welcome to Analyze
phase are Equal
Variance Tests and X Sifting
Tests for Medians.
Inferential Statistics
We will examine the
meaning of each of
Intro to Hypothesis Testing
these and show you
how to apply them.
Hypothesis Testing ND P1
Hypothesis Testing ND P2
Equal Variance Tests
Hypothesis Testing NND P1
Tests for Medians
Hypothesis Testing NND P2
At this point we have covered the tests for determining significance for Normal Data. We will
continue to follow the roadmap to complete the test for Non-Normal Data with Continuous Data.
Later in the module we will use another roadmap that was designed for Discrete data.
Recall that Discrete data does not follow a Normal Distribution, but because it is not
Continuous Data, there are a separate set of tests to properly analyze the data.
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1 Sample t
Why do we care if a data set is Normally Distributed?
§ When it is necessary to make inferences about the true nature of the
population based on random samples drawn from the population.
§ When the two indices of interest (X-Bar and s) depend on the data
being Normally Distributed.
§ For problem solving purposes, because we don’t want to make a bad
decision – having Normal Data is so critical that with EVERY statistical
test, the first thing we do is check for Normality of the data.
Recall the four primary causes for Non-normal data:
§ Skewness – Natural and Artificial Limits
§ Mixed Distributions - Multiple Modes
§ Kurtosis
§ Granularity
We will focus on skewness for the remaining tests for Continuous Data.
Skewness is a natural state for much data. Any data that has natural or artificial limits typically
exhibits a Skewed Distribution when it is operating near the limit. The other three causes for Non-
normality are usually a symptom of a problem and should be identified, separated and corrected.
We will focus on Skewness for the remaining tests for Continuous Data. A common reaction to Non-
normal Data is to simply transform it. Please see your Master Black Belt to determine if a transform is
appropriate. Often data is beaten into submission only to find out there was an underlying cause for
Non-normality that was ignored. Remember we want you to predict whether the data should be
Normal or not. If you believe your data should be Normal but it is not there is most likely an
underlying cause that can be removed which will then allow the data to show its true nature and be
Normal.
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Sample Size
– Ho: σ1 = σ2 = σ3 …
– Ha: At least one is different.
You have already seen this command in the last module. This is simply the application for Non-
normal Data. The question is: Are any of the Standard Deviations or variances statistically
different?
In MINITABTM select “Stat>Basic Stats>Normality Test”. As you can see the P-value for the
Normality test is less than 0.05 therefore we reject the null hypothesis that the data are Normal.
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Next we test for Equal Variance. In MINITABTM select: “Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance”.
Since the data was not Normal we need to know that the only correct test statistic is the Levene’s
test and not the F-test. Had there been more than two variances tested Bartlett’s and Levene’s tests
would have appeared.
When testing >2 samples with Normal Distribution use Bartlett’s test:
– To determine whether multiple Normal Distributions have
Equal Variance.
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As you can see the data illustrates a P-value of 0.247 which is more than 0.05. As a result there
is no variance between CallperWk1 and CallperWk2. Therefore with a 95% confidence level we
reject the null hypothesis.
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Nonparametric Tests
Non-parametric Hypothesis Testing works the same way as parametric testing. Evaluate the P-
value in the same manner
~ ~ ~
Target X X1 X2
In general nonparametric tests do the following: rank order the data, sum the data by ranks, sign
the data above or below the target, and calculate, compare and test the Median. Comparisons
and tests about the Median make nonparametric tests useful with very Non-normal Data.
This Graphical Summary provides the confidence interval for the Median.
With Normal Data notice the With skewed data the Mean is
symmetrical shape of the influenced by the Outliers.
distribution and how the Mean and Notice the Median is still
the Median are centered. centered.
Median Median
349.0 349.5 350.0 350.5 351.0 351.5 352.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
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MINITABTM’s Nonparametrics
1-Sample Sign: performs a one-sample sign test of the Median and calculates the corresponding
point estimate and confidence interval. Use this test as an alternative to one-sample Z and one-
sample t-tests.
1-Sample Wilcoxon: performs a one-sample Wilcoxon signed rank test of the Median and
calculates the corresponding point estimate and confidence interval (more discriminating or efficient
than the sign test). Use this test as a nonparametric alternative to one-sample Z and one-sample t-
tests.
Mann-Whitney: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of two population Medians and
calculates the corresponding point estimate and confidence interval. Use this test as a
nonparametric alternative to the two-sample t-test.
Kruskal-Wallis: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of population Medians for a one-way
design. This test is more powerful than Mood’s Median (the confidence interval is narrower, on
average) for analyzing data from many populations but is less robust to Outliers. Use this test as an
alternative to the one-way ANOVA.
Mood’s Median Test: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of population Medians in a one-
way design. Test is similar to the Kruskal-Wallis Test. Also referred to as the Median test or sign
scores test. Use as an alternative to the one-way ANOVA.
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Here is a little trick! Dividing This test is used to compare the Median of one distribution to a
the sample size from a t-test target value.
estimate by 0.864 should – Must have at least one column of numeric data. If there is more
give you a large enough than one column of data MINITABTM performs a one-sample
sample regardless of the Wilcoxon test separately for each column.
underlying distribution…most The hypotheses:
of the time. – H0: M = Mtarget
– Ha: M ≠ Mtarget
For instance, having a
Interpretation of the resulting P-value is the same.
sample size of 23 using the t-
test method, the sample size
would increase by 3. If there Note: For the purpose of calculating sample size for a non-
is a Normal Distribution parametric (Median) test use:
(assuming) this number n
would increase by 1. n non-parametric = t test
Truthfully it is really possible 0.864
to decrease the sample size
depending on the distribution selected for the alternative.
1-Sample Example
The Statistical Problem is: The null hypothesis is that the Median is equal to 63 and the alternative
hypothesis is the Median is not equal to 63.
Open the MINITABTM Data File: “DISTRIB1.MTW”. Next you have a choice of either performing a
1-Sample Sign Test or 1-Sample Wilcoxon Test because both will test the Median against a target.
For this example we will perform a 1-Sample Sign Test.
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1-Sample Example
As you can see the P-value is less than 0.05 so we must reject the null hypothesis which means
we have data that supports the alternative hypothesis that the Median is different than 63. The
actual Median of 65.70 is shown in the Session Window. Since the Median is greater than the
target value it seems the new process is not as good as we may have hoped.
Perform the same steps as the 1-Sample Sign to use the 1-sample Wilcoxon.
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1-Sample Example
For the 1-sample sign test select a confidence interval level of 95%. As you can see this yields a
result with intervals of 65.26 to 66.50. The NLI means a non-linear interpolation method was
used to estimate the confidence intervals. As you can see the confidence interval is very narrow.
Since the target of 63 is not within the confidence interval reject the null hypothesis.
As you will see the confidence interval is even tighter for the Wilcoxon test. Therefore we reject
the null, the Median is higher than the target of 63. Unfortunately the Median was higher than
the target which is not the desired direction.
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According to the hypothesis the Mine Manager feels he is achieving his target of
2.1 tons/day.
H0: M = 2.1 tons/day Ha: M ≠ 2.1 tons/day
Since we are using one sample we have a choice of choosing either a 1 Sample-Sign or 1
Sample Wilcoxon. For this example we will use a 1 Sample-Sign.
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The Black Belt in this case does not agree; based on this data
the Mine Manager is not achieving his target of 2.1 tons/day.
We disagree!
Mann-Whitney Example
2. H o : M 1 = M2
H a : M 1 ≠ M2
3. Perform the Mann-Whitney test. Use the data provided in the
MINITABTM worksheet: Nonparametric.mtw
4. There are 200 data points for each machine well over the
minimum number of samples necessary.
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Mann-Whitney Example
The Practical
Conclusion is there
is a difference
between the
Medians of the two
machines.
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Exercise
Since we know the data for CallperWk1 and CallperWk 2 are Non-normal we can proceed to
performing a Mann-Whitney Test.
Stat>Nonparametrics>Mann-Whitney
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The final two tests are the Mood’s Median and the Kruskal Wallis.
= = ?
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Notice evidence of Outliers in at least 2 of the 3 populations. You could do Box Plot to get a clearer
idea about Outliers.
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Check for
Equal
Variance.
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Kruskal-Wallis Test
Using the same data set analyze using the Kruskal-Wallis test.
Using the same data set analyze using the Kruskal-Wallis test.
When comparing the Kruskal-Wallis test to the Mood’s Median test the Kruskal-Wallis test is better.
In this case the Kruskal-Wallis Test showed the variances were equal and illustrated the same
conclusion.
Exercise
2. Use the columns named ppm defective1, ppm defective2 and
ppm defective3 in MINITABTM worksheet “Hypoteststud.mtw”
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Instead of performing a
Normality Test we can find the
P-value using the Graphical
Summary in MINITABTM.
Stat>Basic
Statistics>Graphical
Summary
Again when comparing the Kruskal-Wallis test to the Mood’s Median test, the Kruskal-Wallis test is
better. In this case the Kruskal-Wallis Test showed the variances were equal and illustrated the
same conclusion.
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The P-value is
over 0.05…
therefore we After stacking the
accept the null columns we can perform
hypothesis.
a Mood’s Median Test.
Unequal Variance
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Example
This is an example of comparable products. As you can see Model A is Normal but Model B is not.
Model A and Model B are similar in nature (not exact) but are
manufactured in the same plant.
Does Model B have a larger variance than Model A? The Median for Model B is much lower. How
can we capitalize on our knowledge of the process? Let’s look at data demographic to help us
explain the differences between the two processes.
Now let’s check for Equal Variances using Levene’s Test but remember
first you will need to stack the data so you can run this test…
The P-value is just under the limit of .05. Whenever the result is borderline,
as in this case, use your process knowledge to make a judgment.
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Data Demographics
What clues can explain the difference in variances? This example illustrates how Non-normal Data
can have significant informational content as revealed through data demographics. Sometimes this
is all that is needed to draw conclusions.
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Now let’s look at the MINITABTM Session Window. As you can see the P-value is greater than 0.05.
The data illustrates there is not a difference in variance. Therefore we reject the accept the null
hypothesis, there is no difference between a potential Black Belt’s degree and performance.
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You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1.
Notes
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Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data
Part 2
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with “Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 2”.
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Overview
The core
fundamentals of this Welcome to Analyze
phase are Tests for
Proportions and X Sifting
Contingency Tables.
Inferential Statistics
We will examine the
meaning of each of Intro to Hypothesis Testing
these and show you
how to apply them. Hypothesis Testing ND P1
Hypothesis Testing ND P2
Attribute Data
ute
tt rib
A ata
D
One Factor Two Factors
Two or More
One Sample Two Samples Samples
We will now continue with the roadmap for Attribute Data. Since Attribute Data is Non-normal by
definition it belongs in this module on Non-normal Data.
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The hypotheses:
– Ho: p = p 0
– Ha: p p 0
(normal approximation) Z =
(pˆ − p )
0
p (1 − p )n
obs
0 0
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Take note of the how quickly the sample size increases as the alternative proportion goes up. It
would require 1402 samples to tell a difference between 98% and 99% accuracy. Our sample of
500 will do because the alternative hypothesis is 96% according to the proportion formula.
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5. Statistical Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis because the hypothesized
Mean is not within the confidence interval.
6. Practical Conclusion: We are not performing to the accuracy target of 99%.
After you analyze the data you will see the statistical conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis.
What is the Practical Conclusion…(the process is not performing to the desired accuracy of 99%).
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As you can see the Sample Size should be at least 4073 to prove our hypothesis.
Yes, you get your bonus since .80 is not within the confidence interval. Because the improvement
was 84%, the sample size was sufficient.
Answer: Use alternative proportion of .82, hypothesized proportion of .80. n=4073. Either you had
better ship a lot of stuff or you had better improve the process more than just 2%!
X 1680
p̂ = = = 0.84
n 2000
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MINITABTM gives
you a choice of This test is used to determine if the process defect rate (or
proportion, p) of one sample differs by a certain amount, D, from that
using the normal of another sample (e.g., before and after your improvement actions)
approximation or
the exact The hypotheses:
method. We will H0: p1 - p2 = D
use the exact
Ha: p1 – p2 = D
method. The
formula is an
approximation
The test statistic is calculated as follows:
for ease of
manual p̂1 − p̂ 2 − D
calculation. Zobs =
p̂1 (1 − p̂1 ) n1 + p̂ 2 (1 − p̂ 2 ) n 2
a δ p1 p2 n
5% .01 0.79 0.8 ___________
5% .01 0.81 0.8 ___________ Answers:
34,247
5% .02 0.08 0.1 ___________
32,986
5% .02 0.12 0.1 ___________ 4,301
5% .01 0.47 0.5 ___________ 5,142
5% .01 0.53 0.5 ___________ 5,831
5,831
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– Ho: p1 – p2 = 0.0
– H a: p 1 – p 2 0.0
3. Two sample proportion test
– Choose a = 5%
4. Sample size ~
A sample of at least 188 is necessary for each group to be able to detect a 10% difference. If you
have reason to believe your improved process is has only improved to 90% and you would like to
be able to prove that improvement is occurring the sample size of 188 is not appropriate.
Recalculate using .90 for proportion 2 and leave proportion 1 at .85. It would require a sample
size of 918 for each sample!
The data
shown was The following data were taken:
gathered for
two Total Samples Accurate
processes.
Before Improvement 600 510
After Improvement 225 212
Calculate proportions:
X1 510
Before Improvement: 600 samples, 510 accurate p̂1 = = = 0.85
n1 600
X 2 212
After Improvement: 225 samples, 212 accurate p̂ 2 = = = 0.942
n 2 225
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# Req's # Wrong
Boris 356 47
Igor 571 99
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X1 47
Boris p̂1 = = = 0.132
n1 356
X 2 99
Igor p̂ 2 = = = 0.173
n 2 571
Results:
As you can see Now let’s see what the minimum sample size should be…
we Fail to reject
the null Stat > Power and Sample Size > 2 Proportions
hypothesis with
the data given.
One conclusion
is the sample
size is not large
enough. It
would take a
minimum
sample of 1673
to distinguish
the sample
proportions for
Boris and Igor.
Sample Target
Proportion 1 Size Power Actual Power
0.17 1673 0.9 0.900078
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Contingency Tables
C o n tin g e n cy
Ta b le s a re
u s e d
to
s im u lta n e o u s ly
co m p a re
m o re
th a n
tw o
s a m p le
p ro p o rtio n s
w ith
e a ch
o th e r.
Th is
te s t
g e n e ra lly
w o rk s
th e
b e s t
w ith
5
o r
m o re
o b s erv a tio n s
in
e a ch
ce ll.
O b s e rv a tio n s
ca n
b e
p o o le d
b y
co m b in in g
ce lls .
S o m e
e x a m p le s
fo r
u s e
in clu d e :
– R e tu rn
p ro p o rtio n
b y
p ro d u ct
lin e
– C la im
p ro p o rtio n
b y
cu s to m er
– D e fect
p ro p o rtio n
b y
m a n u fa ctu rin g
lin e
Th e
n u ll
h y p o th e s is
is
th a t
th e
p o p u la tio n
p ro p o rtio n s
o f
e a ch
g ro u p
a re
th e
s a m e .
– H 0 :
p 1 =
p 2 =
p 3 =
… =
p n
– H a :
a t
le a s t
o n e
p
is
d iffe re n t
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Chi-square Test
r c (Oij − E ij ) 2 Where:
χ o2 = ∑ ∑
i =1 j=1 E ij O = the observed value
(from sample data)
E = the expected value
(F * F )
E ij = row col r = number of rows
Ftotal c = number of columns
Frow = total frequency for that row
2 2
χ critical =χ α, ν Fcol = total frequency for that column
Ftotal = total frequency for the table
From the Chi-Square Table
n = degrees of freedom [(r-1)(c-1)]
Wow!!! Can you believe this is the math in a Contingency Table. Thank goodness for MINITABTM.
Now let’s do an example.
1. Larry, Curley and Moe are order entry operators and you
suspect one of them has a lower defect rate than the others.
2. Ho: pMoe = pLarry = pCurley
Ha: at least one p is different
3. Use Contingency Table since there are 3 proportions.
4. Sample Size: To ensure a minimum of 5 occurrences were
detected the test was run for one day.
Note the data gathered in the table. Curley is not looking too good right now (as if he ever did).
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0.306 * 45 = 13.8
0.694 * 38 = 26.4
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(observed - expected)2
expected
χ obs
2 = 0.912 +1.123 + 2.841+
The final step is to create a summary table including the observed chi-squared.
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Critical Value ~
• Like any other Hypothesis Test compare the observed statistic
with the critical statistic. We decide a = 0.05 so what else do we
need to know?
• For a chi-square distribution we need to specify n in a
Contingency Table:
n = (r - 1)(c - 1), where
r = # of rows
c = # of columns
• In our example we have 2 rows and 3 columns so n = 2
• What is the critical chi-square? For a Contingency Table all the
risk is in the right hand tail (i.e. a one-tail test); look it up in
MINITABTM using Calc>Probability Distributions>Chisquare…
χ crit
2 = 5.99
Graphical Summary:
Since the observed chi-square exceeds the critical chi-square
we reject the null hypothesis that the defect rate is independent
of which person enters the orders.
0.5
0.4
0.3
Accept Reject
f
0.2
2 = 7.02
χobs
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 = 5.99
χcrit
chi-square
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Using MINITABTM ~
• Notice the row labels are not necessary and row and column
totals are not used just the observed counts for each cell.
As you can see the data confirms: to reject the null hypothesis and the Practical Conclusion is: The
defect rate for one of these stooges is different. In other words defect rate is contingent upon the
stooge.
6. Practical Conclusion: The defect rate for one of these stooges is different. In other
words, defect rate is contingent upon the stooge.
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Quotations Exercise
• You are the quotations manager and your team thinks the
reason you do not get a contract depends on its complexity.
• You determine a way to measure complexity and classify
lost contracts as follows:
Secondly, in MINITABTM
perform a Chi-Square Test
Stat>Tables>Chi-Square Test
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After analyzing the data we can see the P-value is 0.426 which is larger than 0.05. Therefore we
accept the null hypothesis.
Overview
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You have now completed Analyze Phase – Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 2.
Notes
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Analyze Phase
Wrap Up and Action Items
Now we will conclude the Analyze Phase with “Wrap Up and Action Items.
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• Embracing change
• Continuous learning
• Being rigorous
A Six Sigma Black Belt has a tendency to take on many roles therefore these behaviors help
throughout the journey.
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Analyze Deliverables
Sample size is dependent on the type of data.
• Listed here are the Analyze Phase deliverables each candidate will
present in a Power Point presentation at the beginning of the Improve
Phase training.
• At this point you should all understand what is necessary to provide
these deliverables in your presentation.
– Team Members (Team Meeting Attendance)
– Primary Metric
– Secondary Metric(s)
– Data Demographics
– Hypothesis Testing (applicable tools)
– Modeling (applicable tools)
– Strategy to reduce the X’s
– Project Plan It’s your show!
– Issues and Barriers
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DMAIC Roadmap
Now you should be able to prove/disprove the impact “X’s” have on a problem.
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
Analyze Phase
Collect Data
Statistically
Significant?
N
Y Update FMEA
N
Practically
Significant?
Root
Cause
N
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Analyze Questions
General Questions
• Are there any issues or barriers preventing you from completing this phase?
• Do you have adequate resources to complete the project?
This is a template that should be used with each project to assure you take the proper steps –
remember, Six Sigma is very much about taking steps. Lots of them and in the correct order.
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§ Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method through your project
Notes
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Improve Phase
Welcome to Improve
Now that we have completed the Analyze Phase we are going to jump into the Improve Phase.
Welcome to Improve will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
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Welcome to Improve
Overview
Well now that the
Analyze Phase is over
W e lco m e
to
Im p ro v e
on to a more difficult
phase. The good news
is….you will hardly ever P ro ce s s
M o d e lin g :
R e g r e s s io n
use this stuff, so pay
close attention! A d v a n ce d
P ro ce s s
M o d e lin g :
We will examine the M LR
meaning of each of
these and show you D e s ig n in g
Ex p e rim e n ts
how to apply them.
Ex p e rim e n ta l
M e th o d s
Fu ll Fa cto r ia l Ex p e rim e n ts
DMAIC Roadmap
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
We are currently in the Improve Phase and by now you may be quite sick of Six Sigma, really! In
this module we are going to look at additional approaches to process modeling. It is actually quite
fun in a weird sort of way!
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Welcome to Improve
Improve Phase
Analysis Complete
After completing the Improve Phase you will be able to put to use the steps as depicted here.
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Improve Phase
Process Modeling Regression
Now we will continue in the Improve Phase with “Process Modeling: Regression”.
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Overview
Welcome to Improve
Correlation
Designing Experiments
Experimental Methods
In this module of Process Modeling we will study Correlation, Introduction to Regression and Simple
Linear Regression. These are some powerful tools in our data analysis tool box.
We will examine the meaning of each of these and show you how to apply them.
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Correlation
Notes
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Correlation Coefficient
The null hypothesis for correlation is: there is no correlation, the alternative is there is correlation.
The Correlation Coefficient always assumes a value between –1 and +1.
The Correlation Coefficient of the population, large R, is estimated by the sample Correlation
Coefficient, small r and is calculated as shown.
110 110 85
100
100
90
90
75
Output
Output
80
Output
80
70
70
60 65
60
50
50
40
55
40
30
80
Output
70
70
60
65
60
50
50
40
40 55
30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 60
The graphics shown here are labeled as the type and magnitude of their correlation: Strong,
Moderate or Weak correlation.
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Limitations of Correlation
To properly
understand • The magnitude of the Correlation Coefficient is somewhat relative and
Regression you should be used with caution.
must first • As usual statistical significance is judged by comparing a P-value with the
understand
Correlation. chosen degree of alpha risk.
Once a
• Guidelines for practical significance are as follows:
relationship is
described a – If | r | > 0.80, relationship is practically significant
Regression can
be performed. – If | r | < 0.20, relationship is not practically significant
A strong positive
or negative
Area of negative Area of positive
Correlation linear correlation No linear correlation linear correlation
between X and
Y does not
indicate -1.0 -0.8 -0.2 0 0.2 0.8 +1.0
causality.
Correlation
provides an indication of the strength but does not provide us with an exact numerical relationship.
Regression however provides us with that information; more specifically a Y equals a function of X
equation. Just like any other statistic be certain to assess the Correlation Coefficient is both
statistically significant and practically significant.
Correlation Example
RB Stats Correlation.mtw
X values Y values
The Correlation Coefficient [r]: Payton carries Payton yards
We will use some data from a National Football League player, Walter Payton, formerly of the
Chicago Bears. Open MINITABTM worksheet “RB Stats Correlation.mtw” as shown here.
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Correlation Analysis
Graph>Scatter Plot>Simple…
Get outta
my way!
In MINITABTM select “Graph>Scatter Plot>Simple”. This “Scatterplot – Simple” window will open. To
select your Y variable double-click on “payton yards” from the left hand box. For the X variable double-
click “payton carries” from the same box. To enable MINITABTM for the use of a “Lowess Scatter Plot”
click on the “Data View…” button and select the “Smoother” tab… from there you will see a Lowess
option. Select this option and click “OK”.
Correlation Example
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Regression Analysis
Prediction Equations:
Y = a + bx (Linear or 1st order model)
Y = a + bx + cx2 (Quadratic or 2nd order model)
Y = a + bx + cx2 + dx3 (Cubic or 3rd order model)
Y = a (bx) (Exponential)
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In Simple
Simple Regression: Regression there
– One X, One Y is only one X
– Analyze in MINITABTM using commonly
referred to as a
• Stat>Regression>Fitted Line Plot or
predictor or
• Stat>Regression>Regression
regressor.
Multiple
Multiple Regression: Regression
– Two or More X’s, One Y allows many Y’s.
Recall we are
– Analyze in MINITABTM using:
only presenting
• Stat>Regression>Regression
Simple
Regression in
this phase and
In both cases the R-sq value signifies the will present
input variation contribution on the output Multiple
Regression in
variation as explained in the model.
detail in the next
phase.
There are
two ways to
perform a
Simple
Regression.
One is the
Fitted Line
Plot which
will give a
Scatter Plot
with a Fitted
Line and will
generate a
limited
Regression
Equation in
the Session
Window of
MINITABTM
as shown
here.
Follow the
MINITABTM command prompt shown here, double-click “payton yards” for Response (Y) and
double-click “payton carries” for the Predictor (X) and click “OK” which will produce this output.
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Mean Squares
Let’s look at the Regression Analysis Statistical Output. The difference between R squared and
adjusted R squared is not terribly important in Simple Regression.
In Multiple Regression where there are many X’s it becomes more important which you will see
in the next module.
The Regression
Analysis generates
a prediction model
based on the best
fit line through the
data represented
by the equation
shown here.
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You could
make an fairly Compare to the Fitted Line.
accurate
estimate by
using the Line
Plot also.
~1067 yds
MINITABTM will also generate both quadratic and cubic fits. Select the appropriate variables for (Y) and
(X) and for the type of Regression Model choose “Quadratic” or “Cubic” for the regression model type.
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Quadratic
Use the best fitting equation by looking at the R-Sq value. If it improves significantly or if the
assumptions of the residuals are better met as a result of utilizing the quadratic or cubic equation
you should use it.
Here there is no big difference so we will stick with the linear model.
Residuals
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Residuals (cont.)
Residual Plots can be generated from both the Fitted Line Plot and
regression selection in MINITABTM.
Residual Plots can be generated from both the Fitted Line Plot and regression selection when using
MINITABTM.
Here we produced the graph by selecting the “Four in one” option.
Independence assumption…
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To view a normal probability plot in MINITABTM select “Stat>Regression>Fitted Line Plot” and click
on the “Graph” button. You will notice underneath “Residual Plots” there are four options to
choose from. For this example select “Normal plot of residuals”. We will test Residuals versus
Fitted Values and Residual versus Order of Data in the next few pages.
As you can see the Normal probability plot of residuals evaluates the Normally Distributed response
assumption. The residuals should lay near the straight line to within a fat pencil. Looking at a
Normal probability plot to determine Normality takes a little practice. Technically speaking however
it is inappropriate to generate an Anderson-Darling or any other Normality test that generates a P-
value to determine Normality. The reason is residuals are not independent and do not meet a basic
assumption for using the Normality tests. Dr. Douglas Montgomery of Arizona State University
coined the phrase “fat pencil test” much to the chagrin of many of his colleagues.
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Residuals versus
Fitted Values Equal Variance assumption ~
evaluates the Equal
Variance
assumption. Here
you want to have a
random scattering of
points.
Independence assumption ~
Residuals versus the order of data is used to evaluate the Independence Assumption. It should not
show trends either up or down and should have approximately the same number of points above
and below the line.
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If Dorsett carries the football 325 times the predicted value would be determined that Dorsett would
carry the football for 1462.63 yards – approximately!
All three
assumptions The Normality Assumptions have been satisfied.
have been The Equal Variance Assumptions have been satisfied.
satisfied. The Independence Assumptions have been satisfied.
Ah, so much
satisfaction!
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Notes
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Improve Phase
Advanced Process Modeling
Now we will continue with the Improve Phase “Advanced Process Modeling MLR”.
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Overview
Welcome to Improve
Review Corr./Regression
Process Modeling: Regression
Non-Linear Regression
Advanced Process Modeling:
MLR
Transforming Process Data
Designing Experiments
Multiple Regression
Experimental Methods
The fundamentals of this phase are as shown. We will examine the meaning of each of these
and show you how to apply them.
Recall the Simple Linear Regression and Correlation covered in a previous module. The essential
tools presented here describe the relationship between two variables. A independent or input factor
and typically an output response. Causation is NOT always proved; however the tools do present a
guaranteed relationship.
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Correlation Review
The Pearson
Correlation Correlation is used to measure the linear relationship between two
Coefficient, Continuous Variables (bi-variate data).
represented here Pearson Correlation Coefficient, r , will always fall between –1 and +1.
as “r”, shows the A Correlation of –1 indicates a strong negative relationship, one factor
strength of a increases the other decreases.
relationship in
A Correlation of +1 indicates a strong positive relationship, one factor
Correlation. An “r” increases so does the other.
of zero indicates no
correlation.
P-value > 0.05, Ho: No relationship
P-value < 0.05, Ha: Is relationship
The P-value proves
the statistical
confidence of our r
Strong No Strong
conclusion Correlation Correlation Correlation
representing the
possibility a
relationship exists. -1.0 0 +1.0
Presented here
StirRate is directly Linear Regression is used to model the relationship between a
related to Impurity of Continuous response variable (Y) and one or more Continuous
the process; the independent variables (X). The independent predictor variables are
relationship between most often Continuous but can be ordinal.
the two is one unit – Example of ordinal - Shift 1, 2, 3, etc.
StirRate causes P-value > 0.05, Ho: Regression Equation is not significant
0.4643 Impurity P-value < 0.05, Ha: Regression Equation is significant
increase. StirRate
locked at 30 and
Impurity calculated
by 30 times 0.4643,
subtracting .
0.632gives us a 13.3
Impurity. Granted,
we have an error in The change in Impurity
for every one unit
our model, the red change in StirRate
points do not lie (Slope of the Line)
exactly on the blue
line. The dependent
response variable is
Impurity and the StirRate is the independent predictor as both variables in this example are
perpetual.
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Correlation Review
Numerical
relationship is left Correlation tells us the strength of a linear relationship not
out when speaking the numerical relationship.
of Correlation.
The last step to proper analysis of Continuous Data is to
Correlation shows
determine the Regression Equation.
potency of linear
relationship, The Regression Equation can mathematically predict Y for any
mathematical given X.
relationship is The Regression Equation from MINITABTM is the best fit for the
shown by and plotted data.
through the
Prediction Equation
of Regression. As Prediction Equations:
shown these Y = a + bx (Linear or 1st order model)
Correlations or Y = a + bx + cx2 (Quadratic or 2nd order model)
Regressions are not
Y = a + bx + cx2 + dx3 (Cubic or 3rd order model)
proven casual
relationships. We Y = a (b )
x (Exponential)
are attempting to
PROVE statistical commonality. Exponential, quadratic, simple linear relationships or even
predictable outputs (Y) concern REGRESSION equations. More complex relationships are
approaching.
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and Y’s, activate a 3. Run Fitted Line Plot choosing linear option (Stat>Regression>Fitted Line
Plot)
Correlation analysis
4. Run Regression (Stat>Regression>Regression) (Unusual Observations?)
allowing a potential linear
5. Evaluate R2, adjusted R2 and P-values
relationship indication.
6. Run Non-linear Regression if necessary (Stat>Regression>Fitted Line
Third step is to find Plot)
existing linear 7. Analyze residuals to validate assumptions. (Stat>Regression>Fitted Line
mathematical Plot>Graphs)
relationships which calls a. Normally distributed
b. Equal variance
for a Prediction Equation
c. Independence
then fourth to find the
d. Confirm one or two points do not overly influence model.
potency or strength of the
linear relationship if one One step at a time….
exists. Linear Regression
accompanied by the variation of the input gives a variety of output results and a completion of the
fifth step denoted, the amount percentage a given output has. It also includes the answer to
strength of statistical confidence within our Linear Regression.
To conclude a Linear Regression exists; majority has that a 95% statistical confidence or above
has to be obtained. If unsatisfied conclusions are drawn, as a point of contingency, step 6 is
essential. At present, in step 6, we contemplate the potential Non-linear Regression. However
this is necessary only if we can not find a Regression Equation (statistical and practical) variation
of output by way of scoping the input or by analyzing the model error for correctness. Step 7,
depicted subsequently, validates residuals are a necessity for a valid model.
Recalling tools This data set is from the mining industry. It is an evaluation of ore
learned in the concentrators.
Analyze Phase,
presented here is a
Simple Regression Graph > Scatterplot…
example examining
a piece of
equipment
pertaining to a
mining company.
This diagram plots
output to input,
following the
Regression steps.
Notice how the
equipment is
agitated by output of
PGM concentrate.
Opening the MINITABTM file named “Concentrator.MTW” will show how output is always applied to
the Y axis (dependent), as input is always applied to the X axis (independent).
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Example Correlation
Identifying the
existing Linear
Regression is the
second step.
Having the Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient at .847
and a P-value less
than .05 we see with
a very strong
statistical confidence
a Linear Regression.
If no Correlation
existed the
coefficient would be
closer to zero,
remember?
Now finding the Prediction Equation of the linear relationship involves two factors; output response
and input variable. Grams per ton of the PGM concentrate is the output and the RPM of the
agitator is the input. Knowing a positive slope exists by a greater than zero Correlation Coefficient
indicates the agitators RPM increases in correlation with the PGM concentrate. The slope of Linear
Regression equals 1.333. Did you recall the Pearson correlation coefficient exceeded zero?
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Notice how the new line is a more appropriate demonstration of our data since the curvature better
fits the plotted points. This is the essence of choosing a Non-linear Regression and choosing a
Quadratic Regression. The model option can be used, simply by clicking the “Quadratic:”.
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Let’s now consider the model error. You need not be perplexed, model error has many variables.
Output dependency on the impact of other input variables and measurement system errors of
output and inputs can be causes. Since the MINITABTM Session Window displays these very
Regression Analyses feel free to use.
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The simple
Linear model,
the quadratic
model, the
logarithm model
and the inverse
model define the
more
conventional
relationships
between outputs
and inputs.
Clip em!
Open the MINITABTM file called “Mailing Response vs. Discount.mtw”. This shows transactions by
a retail store chain giving the relationship between discount percentages and the customer
response. With the input variable displayed in C1 and output displayed in C2, Belts need to
establish which discount rate will yield a 10% response from customers.
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Now we are testing for a Linear relationship by running a Correlation. The results of the analysis
are a strong confidence level since the P-value is less than .05. Do you notice the Pearson
Correlation Coefficient is almost 1.0? That indicates a strong Correlation.
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This model
shows a very
high R-squared
at 94.5%.
Having noticed
earlier the
apparent
curvature of
the data, the
next step is to
consider a
Non-linear
Regression
Note there are no
Analysis. unusual observations.
Even though the R
squared values are
high a Non-linear fit
may be better based
on the Fitted Line Plot.
We are satisfied! The application of a Non-linear Regression Model shows an increased R-squared.
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Considering the question of yielding 10% or more, finding the Regression Equation is of menial
importance compared to estimating where the data ought to predict the relationship. The
Prediction Interval will provide a degree of confidence in how the customers will respond. This
estimate is of great importance.
Residual Analysis
Confirming the validity, taking
To complete the example check the Residual Analysis for
into consideration our residuals
validation of the assumptions for Regression Analysis.
and completing step seven is
next. Having a variation of
outputs is due to a high level in
R-squared but from that
information we can not draw
the conclusion it is a sufficient
model. We can have
confidence in our model
because all three assumptions
are satisfied; outputs are
Normally and Randomly
Distributed across the
observation order and have
similar variance across the
Fitted Values. The store should
give a discount of 18%
expecting at least a 10%
response from customers.
Now does the present data for the response fit the equation as predicted?
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Transform Rules:
1. The transform must preserve the relative order of the data.
2. The transform must be a smooth and continuous function.
3. Most often useful when the ratio of largest to smallest value is greater
than two. In most cases the transform will have little effect when this rule
is violated.
4. All external reference points (spec limits, etc.) must use the same
transform.
Transformation Power(p)
Cube 3
{ }
Square 2
xp
xtrans= No Change 1
log(x) Square Root 0.5
Logarithm 0
Reciprocal Root -0.5
Reciprocal -1
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Effect of Transformation
Using a mathematical function we have transformed this data. This example shows how taking a
square root of this data yields a Normal distribution. The challenge then is to find the appropriate
transform function.
20 15
Frequency
Frequency
15
10
10
5
5
0 0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Right Skew Sqrt
In finding an appropriate transform MINITABTM performs a function to aid the Belt. This is known as
Box Cox Transformation.
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Selecting a transform,
in the upper graph
MINITABTM presents a
lambda of .5, the
lambda is a
mathematical function
applied to the data. In
taking a square root
you can notice two
probabilities of plots in
the graphs below. The Before Transform After Transform
right plot obviously
shows a new data set
after having been
transformed by the
square root and the left
showing abnormal x 0.50 or x
distribution with red
dots away from the blue
line symbolized by a P-
value of under .05.
Using the function “Stat, Basic Statistic, Normality Test” confirmation of the change in distribution of the
particular data can be accomplished at your discretion.
Before executing the transformation make sure the word “number” is highlighted then within the
function the new column shall appear in the “Expression:” box. The transformed data will show
alongside the unchanged data providing you click the “OK” button.
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In review, we only do Regression on historical data and Regression is not applied to experimental
data. Furthermore we covered performing Regression involving one input and one output. Now
taking into account Multiple Linear Regressions when they are applicable allows us to identify Linear
Regression including one output and more than one input at the same time. If you have not identified
enough of the output variation recall R-squared measures the amount of variation for the output in
Correlation with the input you selected. In looking at the equations here we can assume in Multiple
Linear Regressions each input is independent of the another, no Correlation exists. Having the
inputs independent of one another gives each their own slope. Also we see the epsilon at the end of
the equation representing the fact that every Regression has model error.
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Simple Linear Equations and Multiple Linear Equations are very similar however each in Multiple
Linear Regression there is partial Regression Coefficient and beta one and beta zero apply to
Simple Linear Regressions. Earlier we did Regressions in this module do you recall the residuals
we had? Residuals are defined as the observed value minus the predicted value.
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Using “Best Subsets Regression” we will be given multiple statistics provided by MINITABTM. It is
in our best interest to use the least confusing Multiple Linear Regression model based on these
guidelines.
The MINITABTM “Flight Regression MLR.mtw” needs to be opened to see historical data being
analyzed by an airplane manufacturer. Output is listed as flight speeds and the other columns contain
input variables. With these we will build a Matrix Plot and witness the possibility of relationships
among the variables come to fruition. Using the “Graph variables:” box we enter all inputs and
outputs.
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F
T u
u e
r l
b /
i A
A n i
l e r
t
i A r
t n a T
u g t I e
Mallows d l i C m
Vars R-Sq R-Sq(adj) C-p S e e o R p
1 72.1 71.1 38.4 28.054 X
1 39.4 37.2 112.8 41.358 X
2 85.9 84.8 9.0 20.316 X X
2 82.0 80.6 17.9 22.958 X X
3 87.5 85.9 7.5 19.561 X X X
3 86.5 84.9 9.6 20.267 X X X
4 89.1 87.3 5.7 18.589 X X X X
4 88.1 86.1 8.2 19.481 X X X X
5 89.9 87.7 6.0 18.309 X X X X X
In MINITABTM using the “Best Subsets Regression” command is efficient and powerful since it loads all
inputs to a single output. In the “Free predictors:” box we place all inputs of interest. This particular
command can be helpful in other circumstances however right now let’s place the output column of
data in the “Response:” box. When the evaluation is done the results are given in rows; 1st column - #
of variables, 2nd column - R squared, 3rd column - R squared adjusted, 4th column is mallows Cp, 5th
column - Standard Deviation of the model error and finally the 6th column - input variables.
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T
F
u
List of all the
u e Predictors (X’s)
r l
b /
i A
A n i
l e r
t
i A r
t n a T
u g t I e What model would you select?
Mallows d l i C m
Vars R-Sq R-Sq(adj) C-p S e e o R p
1 72.1 71.1 38.4 28.054 X Let’s consider the 5 predictor model:
1 39.4 37.2 112.8 41.358 X
2 85.9 84.8 9.0 20.316 X X • Highest R-Sq(adj)
2 82.0 80.6 17.9 22.958 X X
3 87.5 85.9 7.5 19.561 X X X • Lowest Mallows Cp
3 86.5 84.9 9.6 20.267 X X X
4 89.1 87.3 5.7 18.589 X X X X • Lowest S
4 88.1 86.1 8.2 19.481 X X X X
5 89.9 87.7 6.0 18.309 X X X X X • However there are many terms
In choosing the correct model, our attention goes to the bottom - 5 term Linear Regression. Are they
all statistically significant?
Stat>Regression>Regression…
…Options
Let’s go back to “Stat>Regression>Regression” again and click on the “Options” button. Place
all outputs in the “Response:” box and the inputs in the “Predictors:” box.
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Do you notice any similarities here? A foreign column has appeared labeled VIF. This indicates if a
high Correlation among inputs exists. Temp has a high VIF so we will remove it.
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To start step four we want to take into account the Regression Model that does not include TEMP.
We have satisfied the Best Subsets model so we need not rerun this command.
Regression Analysis: Flight Speed versus Turbine Angl, Fuel/Air rat, ICR
Re-run the
The P-value for Turbine Angle Regression
now indicates it should be
removed and the Regression
re-run because P > 0.05
Here we have removed Altitude from the “Predictors:” box and the Regression output now shows
the Turbine Angle is not statistically significant.
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Shown here is the entire Regression output for a complete discussion of the final Multiple Linear
Regression model. We have two predictor variables and all are statistically significant.
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Notes
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Notes
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Improve Phase
Designing Experiments
Now we are going to continue with the Improve Phase “Designing Experiments”.
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Designing Experiments
Overview
Within this
module we Welcome to Improve
will provide an
introduction to
Process Modeling: Regression
Design of
Experiments, Advanced Process Modeling:
explain what MLR Reasons for Experiments
they are, how
they work and Designing Experiments Graphical Analysis
when to use
them. DOE Methodology
Experimental Methods
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Designing Experiments
Cu s
Suppl
iers sto ut
O
SIPOC
me Inp
ut
VOC
Con rs
pu
Project Scope
trac Emplo
tors yees
ts
P-Map, X-Y Matrix,
(X1) (X11) (X9)
(X2) (X3) (X4) (X8) FMEA,
(X6) (X7) (X5) (X10) Capability
This is reoccurring awareness. By using tools we filter the variables of defects. When talking of
the Improve Phase in the Six Sigma methodology we are confronted by many Designed
Experiments; transactional, manufacturing, research.
Designs of Experiments help the Belt to understand the cause and effect between the process
output or outputs of interest and the vital few inputs. Some of these causes and effects may
include the impact of interactions often referred to synergistic or cancelling effects.
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Designing Experiments
The objective is to
minimize the response.
The physical model is
not important for our
business objective. The
DOE Model will focus in
the region of interest.
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Designing Experiments
Let’s assume a Belt has One Factor at a Time (OFAT) is an experimental style but not a planned
found in the Analyze Phase experiment or DOE.
that pressure and The graphic shows yield contours for a process that are unknown to the
experimenter.
temperature impact his Trial Temp Press Yield
process and no one knows Yield Contours Are 1 125 30 74
75
what yield is achieved for the Unknown To Experimenter 2 125 31 80
3 125 32 85
possible temperature and 4 125 33 92
pressure combinations. 80 5 125 34 86
6 130 33 85
Pressure (psi)
7 120 33 90
If a Belt inefficiently did a One 135
6
85
The curves shown on the graph above represent a constant process yield if the Belt knew the
theoretical relationships of all the variables and the process output of pressure. These contour lines
are familiar if you have ever done hiking in the mountains and looked at an elevation map which
shows contours of constant elevation. As a test we decided to increase temperature to achieve a
higher yield. After achieving a maximum yield with temperature we decided to change the other
factor, pressure. We then came to the conclusion the maximum yield is near 92% because it was the
highest yield noted in our seven trials.
With the Six Sigma methodology we use DOE which would have found a higher yield using
equations. Many sources state that OFAT experimentation is inefficient when compared with DOE
methods. Some people call it hit or miss. Luck has a lot to do with results using OFAT methods.
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Designing Experiments
DOE is iterative in
nature and may require The most common types of DOE’s are:
more than one – Fractional Factorials
experiment at times. • 4-15 input variables
Fractional Factorials or screening designs are used when the process or product knowledge is low.
We may have a long list of possible input variables (often referred to as factors) and need to screen
them down to a more reasonable or workable level.
Full Factorials are used when it is necessary to fully understand the effects of interactions and when
there are between 2 to 5 input variables.
Response surface methods (not typically applicable) are used to optimize a response typically when
the response surface has significant curvature.
Value Chain
Full factorial
designs are The general notation used to designate a full factorial design is
generally noted as given by:
2 to the k where k
2 k
is number of input
variables or factors
and 2 is the
number of levels all
factors used. In the
table two levels and
four factors are – Where k is the number of input variables or factors.
shown; by using – 2 is the number of levels that will be used for each factor.
the formula how
many runs would • Quantitative or qualitative factors can be used.
be involved in this
design? 16 is the
answer, of course.
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Designing Experiments
Back when we had to calculate the effects of experiments by hand it was much simpler to use coded
variables. Also when you look at the Prediction Equation generated you could easily tell which
variable had the largest effect. Coding also helps us explain some of the math involved in DOE.
Fortunately for us MINITABTM calculates the equations for both coded and uncoded data.
The
representation Consider a 23 design on a catapult...
here has two
cubed designs
8.2 4.55 A B C Response
and 2 levels of
three factors and Run Start Stop Meters
Number Angle Angle Fulcrum Traveled
shows a treatment
3.35 1.5 1 -1 -1 -1 2.10
combination table
using coded 2 1 -1 -1 0.90
Stop Angle
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Designing Experiments
MINITABTM generates
various plots, the cube This graph is used by the experimenter to visualize how the
plot is one. Open the response data is distributed across the experimental space.
MINITABTM worksheet
Stat>DOE>Factorial>Factorial Plots … Cube, select response and factors
“Catapult.mtw”.
How do you
This cube plot is a 2
read or
cubed design for a
interpret this
catapult using three plot?
variables:
Start Angle
Stop Angle
Fulcrum What are
these?
Here we used coded
variable level settings so
we do not know what the
actual process setting
were in uncoded units. Catapult.mtw
The data means for the
response distances are the on the corners of the cube. If we set the stop angle high, start
angle low and fulcrum high we would expect to launch a ball about 8.2 meters with the catapult.
Make sense?
Answer: Fulcrum
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Designing Experiments
Avg Distance at Low Setting of Start Angle: 2.10 + 3.35 + 5.15 + 8.20 = 18.8/4 = 4.70
Main Effects Plot (data means) for Distance
-1 1 -1 1 -1 1
5.2
4.4
Dist
3.6
2.8
2.0
Start Angle Stop Angle Fulcrum
Avg. distance at High Setting of Start Angle: 0.90 + 1.50 + 2.40 + 4.55 = 9.40/4 = 2.34
Run # Start Angle Stop Angle Fulcrum Distance
1 -1 -1 -1 2.10
2 1 -1 -1 0.90
3 -1 1 -1 3.35
4 1 1 -1 1.50
5 -1 -1 1 5.15
6 1 -1 1 2.40
7 -1 1 1 8.20
8 1 1 1 4.55
In order to create the Main Effects Plot we must be able to calculate the average response at the low
and high levels for each Main Effect. The coded values are used to show which responses must be
used to calculate the average.
Let’s review what is happening here. How many experimental runs were operated with the start angle
at the high level or 1. The answer is 4 experimental runs shows the process to run with the start angle
at the high level. The 4 experimental runs running with the start angle at the high level are run
number 2, 4, 6 and 8. If we take the 4 distances or process output and take the average, we see the
average distance when the process had the start angle running at the high level was 2.34 meters.
The second dot from the left in the Main Effects Plots shows the distance of 2.34 with the start angle
at a high level.
Interaction Definition
Interactions occur when variables act
together to impact the output of the
Higher
process. Interactions plots are B-
constructed by plotting both variables Y
together on the same graph. They take When B changes
from low to high
Output
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Designing Experiments
Let’s review what is happening here. The dot indicated by the green arrow is the Mean distance when
the fulcrum is at the low level as indicated by a -1 and when the start angle is at the high level as
indicated by a 1. Earlier we said the point indicated by the green arrow had the fulcrum at the low
level and the start angle at the high level. Experimental runs 2 and 4 had the process running at
those conditions so the distance from those two experimental runs is averaged and plotted in
reference to a value of 1.2 on the vertical axis. You can note the red dotted line shown is for when the
start angle is at the high level as indicated by a 1.
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Designing Experiments
MINITABTM will also plot the mirror images just in case it is easier to interpret with the variables
flipped. If you care to create the mirror image of the interaction plots, while creating interaction
plots, click on “Options” and choose “Draw full interaction plot matrix” with a checkmark in the box.
These mirror images present the same data but visually may be easier to understand.
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Designing Experiments
DOE Methodology
It is easy to
generate full
factorial designs in
MINITABTM. Follow
the command path
shown here.
These are the DOE > Factorial > Create Factorial Design…
designs
MINITABTM will
create. They are
color coded using
the Red, Yellow
and Green. Green
are the “go”
designs, yellow are
the “use caution”
designs and red
are the “stop, wait
and think” designs.
It has a similar
meaning as do
street lights.
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Designing Experiments
Let’s create a three factor full factorial design using the MINITABTM command shown at the top of the
slide. This design we selected will give us all possible experimental combinations of 3 factors using 2
levels for each factor.
Be sure to change the number of factors as seen in the upper left of the slide to 3. Also be sure not to
forget to click on the “Full factorial” line within the Designs box shown in the lower right of the slide.
In the “Options”
box of the upper
left MINITABTM
display one can
change the order
of the
experimental runs.
To view the design
in standard order
(not randomized
for now) be sure
to uncheck the
default of
“Randomize
runs” in the
“Options” tab.
“Un-checking”
means no
checkmark is in
the white box next
to “Randomize
runs”.
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Designing Experiments
One warning to you as a new Belt to using MINITABTM. Never copy, paste, delete or move columns
within the first 7 columns or MINITABTM may not recognize the design you are attempting to use.
Is our experiment done? Not at all. The process must now be run at the 8 experimental set of
conditions shown above and the output or outputs of interest must be recorded in columns to the
right of our first 7 columns shown. After we have collected the data we will then analyze the
experiment. Remember the 11 Step DOE methodology from earlier?
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Designing Experiments
Notes
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Improve Phase
Wrap Up and Action Items
Congratulations on completing the training portion of the Improve Phase. Now comes the
exciting and challenging part…implementing what you have learned to real world projects.
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This is a summary of
the purpose for the The goal of the Improve Phase is to:
Improve Phase.
Avoid getting into
analysis paralysis, • Determine the optimal levels of the variables which are significantly
only use DOE’s as impacting your Primary Metric.
necessary. Most
problems will NOT • Demonstrate a working knowledge of modeling as a means of
require the use of process optimization.
Designed
Experiments
however to qualify as
a Black Belt you at
least need to have
an understanding of
DOE as described in
this course.
• Listed here are the Improve Phase deliverables each candidate will
present in a Power Point presentation at the beginning of the
Control Phase training.
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Look for the potential roadblocks and plan to address them before
they become problems:
– Lack of data
– Data presented is the best guess by functional managers
– Team members do not have the time to collect data
– Process participants do not participate in the analysis planning
– Lack of access to the process
Each phase will have roadblocks. Many will be similar throughout your project.
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DMAIC Roadmap
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
The objective of the Improve Phase is simple – utilize advanced statistical methods to identify
contributing variables OR more appropriately optimize variables to create a desired output.
Improve Phase
Over 80% of projects will realize their
solutions in the Analyze Phase –
Designed Experiments can be extremely Analysis Complete
effective when used properly. It is
imperative that a Designed Experiment is Identify Few Vital X’s
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• How much of the problem have you explained with these X’s?
These are questions the participant should be able to answer in clear, understandable language at
the end of this phase.
Over the last decade of deploying Lean Six Sigma it has been found the parallel application of the
tools and techniques in a real project yields the maximum success for the rapid transfer of
knowledge. Thus we have developed a follow up process that involves planning for action between
the conclusion of this phase and the beginning of the Control Phase. It is imperative you complete
this to keep you on the proper path. Thanks and good luck!
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§ Have started to develop a project plan to complete the action items
§ Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method within your business
You have now completed Improve Phase – Wrap Up and Action Items.
Notes
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Control Phase
Welcome to Control
Now that we have completed the Improve Phase we are going to jump into the Control Phase.
Welcome to Control will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
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Welcome to Control
Overview
These are the modules
we will cover in the
Control Phase as we Welcome to Control
attempt to insure that
the gains we have
made with our project
remain in place..
Lean Controls
We will examine the
meaning of each of Defect Controls
these and show you
how to apply them.
DMAIC Roadmap
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
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Welcome to Control
Improvement Selected
Go to Next Project
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Control Phase
Lean Controls
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Lean Controls
Overview
You can see in this section of the course we will look at the Vision of Lean, Lean Tools and
Sustaining Project Success.
We will examine the meaning of each of these and show you how to apply them.
Lean Controls
You have begun the process of sustaining your project after finding the “vital few” X’s.
In Advanced Process Capability we discussed removing some of the Special Causes causing
spread from Outliers in the process performance.
This module gives more tools from the Lean toolbox to stabilize your process.
Belts, after some practice, often consider this module’s set of tools a way to improve some
processes that are totally “out of control” or of such poor Process Capability prior applying the Six
Sigma methodology.
The tools we are going to review within this module can be used to help control a process. They can
be utilized at any time in an improvement effort not just in Control. These Lean concepts can be
applied to help reduce variation, effect Outliers or clean up a process before, during or at the
conclusion of a project.
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Lean Controls
Remember the goal is to achieve and the SUSTAIN our improvements. We discussed 5S in the
Define Phase but we are going to review it with a twist here in the Control Phase.
Kanban
The Continuous Goal…
Sustaining Results Kaizen
p We cannot sustain
Kanban without Kaizen.
Standardized Work
– Muda of Waiting
– The reduction of MUDA can reduce your Outliers and help with
defect prevention. Outliers exist because of differing waste among
procedures, machines, people, etc.
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Lean Controls
The Goal
Remember that any project Do not forget the goal ~ Sustain your Project by eliminating MUDA!
needs to be sustained. With this in mind we will introduce and review some of the Lean tools
Muda (pronounced like used to sustain your project success.
mooo dah) are wastes than
can reappear if the
following Lean tools are not
used. The goal is to have
your Belts move on to other
projects and not be used as
firefighters.
O!
N
5S - Workplace Organization
The term “5S” derives from the
Japanese words for five practices
leading to a clean and
manageable work area. The five Before.. After..
“S” are: ‘Seiri' means to
separate needed tools, parts and
instructions from unneeded
materials and to remove the • 5S means the workplace is clean, there is a place for
latter. 'Seiton' means to neatly everything and everything is in its place.
arrange and identify parts and • 5S is the starting point for implementing improvements to
tools for ease of use. 'Seiso' a process.
means to conduct a cleanup
campaign. 'Seiketsu' means to • To ensure your gains are sustainable you must start with
conduct seiri, seiton, and seiso at a firm foundation.
frequent, indeed daily, intervals to • Its strength is contingent upon the employees and
maintain a workplace in perfect company being committed to maintaining it.
condition. 'Shitsuke' means to
form the habit of always following the first four S’s.
On the next page we have translated the Japanese words to English words. Simply put, 5S
means the workplace is clean, there is a place for everything and everything is in its place. The
5S will create a workplace that is suitable for and will stimulate high quality and high productivity
work. It will make the workplace more comfortable and a place that you can be proud of.
Developed in Japan this method assumes no effective and quality job can be done without clean
and safe environment and without behavioral rules. The 5S allow you to set up a well adapted
and functional work environment ruled by simple yet effective rules. 5S deployment is done in a
logical and progressive way. The first three S’s are workplace actions while the last two are
sustaining and progress actions.
It is recommended to start implementing 5S in a well chosen pilot workspace or pilot process and
spread to the others step by step.
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Lean Controls
Seiri = Sorting
Eliminate everything not required for the current work, keeping only the bare essentials.
Seiton = Straightening
Arrange items in a way that they are easily visible and accessible.
Seiso = Shining
Clean everything and find ways to keep it clean. Make cleaning a part of your everyday
work.
Seketsu = Standardizing
Create rules by which the first three S’s are maintained.
Shitsuke = Sustaining
Keep 5S activities from unraveling
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Lean Controls
For items that are useful there is also a method for determining how and where they should be
stored to help you achieve a clean and orderly workplace.
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Lean Controls
After you have determined the usefulness of an item set three classes for determining where to store an
item based on the frequency of use and the distance to travel to get the item. “A” is for things which are
to be kept close at hand because the frequency of use is high. “B” is if the item is used infrequently but
approximately on a weekly basis. Do no put it on your work surface rather keep in easy walking
distance, i.e. on a bookshelf or in a nearby cabinet usually in the same room you are in. For “C” items it
is acceptable to store in a somewhat remote place, meaning a few minutes walk away.
By rigorously applying the sort action and the prescribed method you will find the remainder of the 5S
items will be quite easy to accomplish. It is very difficult to order a large number of items in a given
space and the amount of cleaning increases with the number of items. Your workplace should only
contain those items needed on a daily to weekly basis to perform your job.
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Lean Controls
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Lean Controls
A Visual Factory
can best be The basis and foundation of a Visual Factory are the 5S Standards.
represented by a
A Visual Factory enables a process to manage its processes with clear indications of
workplace where a
opportunities. Your team should ask the following questions if looking for a project:
recently hired
– Can we readily identify Downtime Issues?
supervisor can
– Can we readily identify Scrap Issues?
easily identify
– Can we readily identify Changeover Problems?
inventory levels, – Can we readily identify Line Balancing Opportunities?
extra tools or – Can we readily identify Excessive Inventory Levels?
supplies, scrap – Can we readily identify Extraneous Tools & Supplies?
issues, downtime
concerns or even Exercise:
issues with setups – Can you come up with any opportunities for VISUAL aids in your project?
or changeovers. – What visual aids exist to manage your process?
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Lean Controls
We cannot sustain
Standardized Work
without 5S and the
Visual Factory. 5S - Workplace Organization
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Lean Controls
What is Kaizen?
A Kaizen event is very similar to a Six Sigma project. A Six Sigma project is actually a Kaizen. By
involving your project team or other in an area to assist with implementing the Lean control or
concepts you will increase buy in of the team which will effect your projects sustainability.
Management Support. Consider the corporate support which is the reason why
Six Sigma focus is a success in your organization
Analysis Tools. There are improvement projects in each organization that cannot
be solved by an operator. This is why we teach the analysis tools in the
breakthrough strategy of Lean Six Sigma.
Operator Support. The organization needs to understand its future lies in the
success of the value-adding employees. Our roles as Belts are to convince
operators that we are here for them--they will then be there for us.
A Kaizen event can be small or large in scope. Kaizens are improvement with a purpose of
constantly improving a process. Some Kaizens are very small changes like a new jig or placement of
a product or more involved projects. Kaizens are Six Sigma projects with business impact.
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Lean Controls
What is Kanban?
5S - Workplace Organization
This is a building block. A Kanban needs to be supported by the previous steps we have reviewed. If
Kanbans are abused they will actually backfire and effect the process in a negative manner.
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Lean Controls
It is not possible to implement a viable Kanban system without a strong support structure made up
of the prerequisites. One of the most difficult concepts for people to integrate is the simplicity of
the Lean tools… and to keep the discipline. Benchmarks have organizations using up to seven
years to implement a successful Kanban System all the way through supplier and customer supply
chain.
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Lean Controls
4. Project Scope dictates how far up the Lean tools ladder you need to
implement measures to sustain any project success from your DMAIC
efforts.
The 5 Lean concepts are an excellent method for Belts to sustain their project success. If you have
Outliers, declining benefits or dropping process capability, you need to consider the concepts
presented in this module.
Class Exercise
In the boundaries for your project scope give some examples of Lean
tools in operation.
– Others can learn from those items you consider basic.
List other Lean tools you are most interested in applying to sustain your
project results.
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Lean Controls
Notes
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Control Phase
Defect Controls
Now we will continue in the Control Phase with the “Defect Controls”.
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Defect Controls
Overview
Welcome to Control
In an effort to put in place Defect Controls we will examine Tolerances, Process Automation and
Poka-Yoke.
We will examine the meaning of each of these and show you how to apply them.
With Defect Prevention we want to ensure the improvements created during the project stay in place.
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Defect Controls
22
6s Product/Process Design
Distribution 21
of Y
19
Relationship
17 Y = f(x)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Distribution of X
The process specifications for X are set such that the target capability for Y
is achieved.
Both the target and tolerance of the X must be addressed in the spec limits.
Upper
Prediction
25
Interval
Specification for Y
23
Distribution 21 Relationship
of Y
Y = f(x)
19
17
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Lower
Prediction
Distribution of Xs Interval
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Defect Controls
MINITABTM function. 80
70
60
Output 50
40
30
What are the 20
spec limits for 10
Regression
the output? 0
95% PI
0 5 10
Input
What is the tolerance range for the input?
If you want 6σ performance you must remember to tighten the
output’s specification to select the tolerance range of the input.
Usually we use the prediction band provided by MINITABTM. This is controllable by manipulation of
the confidence intervals… 90%, 05%, 99%, etc. Play with adjusting the prediction bands to see
the effect it has.
Regression Plot
Y = 2.32891 - 0.282622X
R-Sq = 96.1 %
10
High output spec connects
with top line in both cases.
Output2
Regression
Input2 90
80
70
60
50
Output
40
30
20
Regression
0 5 10
Input
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Defect Controls
Regression Plot
Y = -4.7E-01 R-Sq =
+ 0.811312X 90.4 %
10
Regression Plot
Regression
Y = 1.46491 R-Sq =
0 95% PI
+ 0.645476X 63.0 %
0 10 20 30
30
Inp1
20
Outp2
10
Regression
0
95% PI
0 10 20 30
Inp1
5 – 6 σ Full Automation
Automation can be an option as well which removes the human element and its inherent
variation. Although use caution to automate a process many time people jump into automation
prematurely. If you automate a poor process what will that do for you?
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Defect Controls
4 – 5 σ Process Interruption
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Defect Controls
Example:
• A Black Belt is working on launching a new electric drive unit on a
transfer system
– One common failure mode of the system is a bearing failure on the
main motor shaft
– It was determined a high press fit at bearing installation was
causing these failures
– The Root Cause of the problem turned out to be undersized
bearings from the supplier
• Until the supplier could be brought into control or replaced the team
implemented a press load monitor at the bearing press with a indicator
– If the monitor detects a press load higher than the set point it
shuts down the press not allowing the unit to be removed from
press until an interlock key is turned and the ram reset in the
manual mode
– Only the line lead person and the supervisor have keys to the
interlock
– The non-conforming part is automatically marked with red dye
Process Interruption
3 – 5 σ Mistake Proofing
Mistake Proofing is
great because it is Mistake Proofing is best defined as:
usually inexpensive
– Using wisdom, ingenuity or serendipity to create devices
and very effective.
Consider the many allowing a 100% defect free step 100% of the time.
everyday examples of
Mistake Proofing. Poka-Yoke is the Japanese term for mistake proofing or to avoid
You can not fit the yokeuro inadvertent errors poka .
diesel gas hose into
an unleaded vehicle 1 2 3 4
5 7 8
See if you
can find the
6 Poka- Yokes!
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Defect Controls
This clearly highlights the difference between the two approaches. What are the benefits to the
Source Inspection method?
Traditional Inspection
Result
Sort
Worker or Do Not Do Defective At Other
Machine Error Anything Step
Source Inspection
KEEP ERRORS FROM
TURNING INTO DEFECTS
SHUTDOWN SHUTDOWN
(Stop Operation) (Stop Operation)
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Defect Controls
The very best approaches make creating a defect impossible. Recall the gas hose example, you
can not put diesel fuel into an unleaded gas tank unless you really try hard or have a hammer.
Contact Method
– Physical or energy contact
with product
1 Guide Pins of
Different Sizes
• Limit switches
• Photo-electric beams
Fixed Value Method 2 Error Detection
and Alarms
– Number of parts to be
attached/assembled etc.
are constant
– Number of steps done 3 Limit Switches
in operation
• Limit switches
Motion-step Method 4 Counters
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Defect Controls
To see a much more in-depth review of improving the product or service quality by preventing defects
you MUST review the book shown here. A comprehensive 240 Poka-Yoke examples are shown and
can be applied to many industries. The Poka-Yoke’s are meant to address errors from processing,
assembly, mounting, insertion, measurement, dimensional, labeling, inspection, painting, printing,
misalignment and many other reasons.
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Defect Controls
All of the Defect Prevention methods used must be documented in your FMEA and the Control
Plan discussed later in the Control Phase.
Class Exercise
Take a look around your work area or office to see what things you can
identify as Mistake Proofed.
Look for other areas where such beneficial things could be applied.
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Defect Controls
• Understand what tools must document the Defect Prevention created in the
Control Phase
Notes
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Control Phase
Statistical Process Control
We will now continue in the Control Phase with “Statistical Process Control or SPC”.
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Overview
Welcome to Control
Lean Controls
Statistical techniques can be used to monitor and manage process performance. Process
performance, as we have learned, is determined by the behavior of the inputs acting upon it in the
form of Y = f(X). As a result it must be well understood we can monitor only the performance of a
process output. Many people have applied Statistical Process Control (SPC) to only the process
outputs. Because they were using SPC their expectations were high regarding a new potential level
of performance and control over their processes. However, because they only applied SPC to the
outputs they were soon disappointed. When you apply SPC techniques to outputs it is appropriately
called Statistical Process Monitoring or SPM.
You of course know you can only control an output by controlling the inputs exerting an influence on
the output. This is not to say applying SPC techniques to an output is bad, there are valid reasons
for doing this. Six Sigma has helped us all to better understand where to apply such control
techniques.
In addition to controlling inputs and monitoring outputs control charts are used to determine the
baseline performance of a process, evaluate measurement systems, compare multiple processes,
compare processes before and after a change, etc. Control Charts can be used in many situations
that relate to process characterization, analysis and performance.
To better understand the role of SPC techniques in Six Sigma we will first investigate some of the
factors that influence processes then review how simple probability makes SPC work and finally
look at various approaches to monitoring and controlling a process.
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Using rational subgroups is a common way to assure you collect representative data. A rational
subgroup is a sample of a process characteristic in which all the items in the sample were produced
under very similar conditions over in a relatively short time period. Rational subgroups are usually
small in size, typically consisting of 3 to 5 units to make up the sample. It is important that rational
subgroups consist of units produced as closely as possible to each other especially if you want to
detect patterns, shifts and drifts. If a machine is drilling 30 holes a minute and you wanted to collect a
sample of hole sizes a good rational subgroup would consist of 4 consecutively drilled holes. The
selection of rational subgroups enables you to accurately distinguish Special Cause variation from
Common Cause variation.
Make sure your samples are not biased in any way; meaning they are randomly selected. For
example, do not plot only the first shift’s data if you are running multiple shifts. Do not look at only one
vendor’s material if you want to know how the overall process is really running. Finally do not
concentrate on a specific time to collect your samples; like just before the lunch break.
If your process consists of multiple machines, operators or other process activities producing streams
of the same output characteristic you want to control it would be best to use separate Control Charts
for each of the output streams.
If the process is stable and in control the sample observations will be randomly distributed around the
average. Observations will not show any trends or shifts and will not have any significant outliers from
the random distribution around the average. This type of behavior is to be expected from a normally
operating process and is why it is called Common Cause variation. Unless you are intentionally trying
to optimize the performance of a process to reduce variation or change the average, as in a typical Six
Sigma project, you should not make any adjustments or alterations to the process if is it demonstrating
only Common Cause variation. That can be a big time saver since it prevents “wild goose chases.”
If Special Cause variation occurs you must investigate what created it and find a way to prevent it from
happening again. Some form of action is always required to make a correction and to prevent future
occurrences.
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• An I-MR Chart combines a Control Chart of the average moving range with the Individuals
Chart.
• You can use Individuals Charts to track the process level and to detect the presence of
Special Causes when the sample size is one batch.
• Seeing these charts together allows you to track both the process level and process
variation at the same time providing greater sensitivity to help detect the presence of
Special Causes.
I-MR Chart
U C L=226.12
225.0
Individual Value
222.5
_
220.0 X=219.89
217.5
215.0
LC L=213.67
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109
O bser v ation
8
U C L=7.649
6
Moving Range
4
__
M R=2.341
2
0 LC L=0
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109
O bser v ation
Individual Values (I) and Moving Range (MR) Charts are used when each measurement
represents one batch. The subgroup size is equal to one when I-MR charts are used. These
charts are very simple to prepare and use. The graphic shows the Individuals Chart where the
individual measurement values are plotted with the Center Line being the average of the
individual measurements. The Moving Range Chart shows the range between two subsequent
measurements.
There are certain situations when opportunities to collect data are limited or when grouping the
data into subgroups simply does not make practical sense. Perhaps the most obvious of these
cases is when each individual measurement is already a rational subgroup. This might happen
when each measurement represents one batch, when the measurements are widely spaced in
time or when only one measurement is available in evaluating the process. Such situations
include destructive testing, inventory turns, monthly revenue figures and chemical tests of a
characteristic in a large container of material.
All these situations indicate a subgroup size of one. Because this chart is dealing with individual
measurements it, is not as sensitive as the X-Bar Chart in detecting process changes.
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If each of your observations consists of a subgroup of data rather than just individual
measurements an Xbar-R chart provides greater sensitivity. Failure to form rational
subgroups correctly will make your Xbar-R Charts incorrect.
Xbar-R Chart
U C L=225.76
225
Sample Mean
222 _
_
X=221.13
219
LC L=216.50
216
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Sample
U C L=16.97
16
Sample Range
12
_
8 R=8.03
0 LC L=0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Sample
An Xbar-R is used primarily to monitor the stability of the average value. The Xbar Chart plots the
average values of each of a number of small sampled subgroups. The averages of the process
subgroups are collected in sequential, or chronological, order from the process. The Xbar Chart,
together with the Rbar Chart shown, is a sensitive method to identify assignable causes of product
and process variation and gives great insight into short-term variations.
These charts are most effective when they are used as a matched pair. Each chart individually
shows only a portion of the information concerning the process characteristic. The upper chart
shows how the process average (central tendency) changes. The lower chart shows how the
variation of the process has changed.
It is important to track both the process average and the variation separately because different
corrective or improvement actions are usually required to effect a change in each of these two
parameters.
The Rbar Chart must be in control in order to interpret the averages chart because the Control
Limits are calculated considering both process variation and Center. When the Rbar Chart shows
not in control, the Control Limits on the averages chart will be inaccurate and may falsely indicate
an out of control condition. In this case, the lack of control will be due to unstable variation rather
than actual changes in the averages.
Xbar and Rbar Charts are often more sensitive than I-MR but are frequently done incorrectly. The
most common error is failure to perform rational sub-grouping correctly.
A rational subgroup is simply a group of items made under conditions that are as nearly identical as
possible. Five consecutive items made on the same machine with the same setup, the same raw
materials and the same operator are a rational subgroup. Five items made at the same time on
different machines are not a rational subgroup. Failure to form rational subgroups correctly will
make your Xbar-Rbar Charts dangerously wrong.
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U Chart of Defects
0.14 1
1
UCL=0.1241
0.12
Sample Count Per Unit
0.10
0.08
0.06 _
U=0.0546
0.04
0.02
0.00 LCL=0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Sample
The U Chart plots defects per unit data collected from subgroups of equal or unequal sizes. The
“U” in U Charts stands for defects per Unit. U Charts plot the proportion of defects that are
occurring.
The U Chart and C Chart are very similar. They both are looking at defects but the U Chart does not
need a constant sample size as does the C Chart. The Control Limits on the U Chart vary with the
sample size and therefore they are not uniform; similar to the P Chart which we will describe next.
Counting defects on forms is a common use for the U Chart. For example, defects on insurance
claim forms are a problem for hospitals. Every claim form has to be checked and corrected before
going to the insurance company. When completing a claim form a particular hospital must fill in 13
fields to indicate the patient’s name, social security number, DRG codes and other pertinent data. A
blank or incorrect field is a defect.
A hospital measured their invoicing performance by calculating the number of defects per unit for
each day’s processing of claims forms. The graph demonstrates their performance on a U Chart.
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P Chart of Errors
0.30
UCL=0.2802
0.25
Proportion
_
0.20 P=0.2038
0.15
LCL=0.1274
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Sample
The P Chart plots the proportion of nonconforming units collected from subgroups of equal or
unequal size (percent defective). The proportion of defective units observed is obtained by dividing
the number of defective units observed in the sample by the number of units sampled. P Charts
name comes from plotting the Proportion of defectives. When using samples of different sizes the
upper and lower control limits will not remain the same - they will look uneven as exhibited in the
graphic. These varying Control Chart limits are effectively managed by Control Charting software.
A common application of a P Chart is when the data is in the form of a percentage and the sample
size for the percentage has the chance to be different from one sample to the next. An example
would be the number of patients arriving late each day for their dental appointments. Another
example is the number of forms processed daily requiring rework due to defects. In both of these
examples the quantity would vary from day to day.
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Type 2 Corrective Action = Flag: improvement made to the process which will detect
when the error condition has occurred. This flag will shut down the equipment so the
defect will not move forward.
SPC on X’s or Y’s with fully trained operators and staff who respect the rules. Once a
chart signals a problem everyone understands the rules of SPC and agrees to shut
down for Special Cause identification. (Cpk > certain level).
SPC on X’s or Y’s with fully trained operators. The operators have been trained and
understand the rules of SPC, but management will not empower them to stop for
investigation.
S.O.P. is implemented to attempt to detect the defects. This action is not sustainable
short-term or long-term.
The most effective form of control is called a type 1 corrective action. This is a control applied to the
process which will eliminate the error condition from occurring. The defect can never happen. This
is the “prevention” application of the Poka-Yoke method.
The second most effective control is called a type 2 corrective action. This a control applied to the
process which will detect when an error condition has occurred and will stop the process or shut
down the equipment so that the defect will not move forward. This is the “detection” application of
the Poka-Yoke method.
The third most effective form of control is to use SPC on the X’s with appropriate monitoring on the
Y’s. To be effective employees must be fully trained, they must respect the rules and management
must empower the employees to take action. Once a chart signals a problem everyone
understands the rules of SPC and agrees to take emergency action for special cause identification
and elimination.
The fourth most effective correction action is the implementation of a short-term containment which
is likely to detect the defect caused by the error condition. Containments are typically audits or
100% inspection.
Finally you can prepare and implement an S.O.P. (standard operating procedure) to attempt to
manage the process activities and to detect process defects. This action is not sustainable either
short-term or long-term.
Do not do SPC for the sake of just saying you do SPC. It will quickly deteriorate to a waste of time
and a very valuable process tool will be rejected from future use by anyone who was associated
with the improper use of SPC.
Using the correct level of control for an improvement to a process will increase the acceptance of
changes/solutions you may wish to make and it will sustain your improvement for the long-term.
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SPC has its uses because it is known that every process has known variation called Special Cause
and Common Cause variation. Special Cause variation is unnatural variability because of
assignable causes or pattern changes. SPC is a powerful tool to monitor and improve the variation
of a process. This powerful tool is often an aspect used in visual factories. If a supervisor or
operator or staff is able to quickly monitor how its process is operating by looking at the key inputs or
outputs of the process, this would exemplify a visual factory.
SPC is used to detect Special Causes in order to have those operating the process find and remove
the Special Cause. When a Special Cause has been detected the process is considered to be “out
of control”.
SPC gives an ongoing look at the Process Capability. It is not a capability measurement but it is a
visual indication of the continued Process Capability of your process.
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UCL=55.24
Special Cause 50
Variation Detected
40
Individual Value
30
_
X=29.06 Process Center
(usually the Mean)
20
Control Limits
10
LCL=2.87
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Observation
Control Charts were first developed by Dr. Shewhart in the early 20th century in the U.S. Control
Charts are a graphical and visual plot of a process and charts over time like a Time Series Chart.
From a visual management aspect a Time Plot is more powerful than knowledge of the latest
measurement. These charts are meant to indicate change in a process. All SPC charts have a
Central Line and Control Limits to aid in Special Cause variation.
Notice, again, we never discussed showing or considering specifications. We are advising you to
never have specification limits on a Control Chart because of the confusion often generated.
Remember we want to control and maintain the process improvements made during the project.
These Control Charts and their limits are the Voice of the Process. These charts give us a running
view of the output of our process relative to established limits.
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Control Charts indicate when a process is out of control or exhibiting Special Cause variation
but NOT why!
SPC Charts allow workers and supervision to maintain improved process performance from
Lean Six Sigma projects.
Control Limits describe the process variability and are unrelated to customer specifications.
(Voice of the Process instead of Voice of the Customer)
– An undesirable situation is having Control Limits wider than customer specification
limits. This will exist for poorly performing processes with a Cp less than 1.0
Many SPC Charts exist and selection must be appropriate for effectiveness.
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Special Cause
Variation Run Chart of Statistical Process Control (SPC)
Process is Out
of Control
data points involves the use of statistical
techniques to interpret data to control
Upper Control
the variation in processes. SPC is used
Limit primarily to act on out of control
processes but is also used to monitor
+/- 3 sigma
Common Cause
Variation the consistency of processes producing
Process is In
Control products and services.
Comparison of the decision rules to the performance data detects any unusual variation in the
process that could indicate a problem with the process. Several different descriptive statistics can be
used in Control Charts. In addition there are several different types of Control Charts to test for
different causes, such as how quickly major vs. minor shifts in process averages are detected.
Control Charts are Time Series Charts of all the data points with one addition. The Standard
Deviation for the data is calculated for the data and two additional lines are added to the chart. These
lines are placed +/- 3 Standard Deviations away from the Mean and are called the Upper Control
Limit (UCL) and Lower Control Limit (LCL). Now the chart has three zones: 1. The zone between the
UCL and the LCL which called the zone of Common Cause variation, 2. The zone above the UCL
which a zone of Special Cause variation and 3. another zone of Special Cause variation below the
LCL.
Control Charts graphically highlight data points that do not fit the normal level of expected variation.
This is mathematically defined as being more than +/- 3 Standard Deviations from the Mean. It is all
based off probabilities. We will now demonstrate how this is determined.
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Outlier
3
2
1
99.7%
95%
68%
-1
-2
-3
Outlier
Control Charts provide you with two basic functions; one is to provide time based information on the
performance of the process which makes it possible to track events affecting the process and the
second is to alert you when Special Cause variation occurs. Control Charts graphically highlight data
points not fitting the normal level of variation expected. Common Cause variation level is typically
defined as +/- 3 Standard Deviations from the Mean. This is also know as the UCL and LCL
respectively.
Recall the “area under the curve” discussion in the lesson on Basic Statistics remembering +/- one
Standard Deviation represented 68% of the distribution, +/- 2 was 95% and +/- 3 was 99.7%. You
also learned from a probability perspective your expectation is the output of a process would have a
99.7% chance of being between +/- 3 Standard Deviations. You also learned the sum of all
probability must equal 100%. There is only a 0.3% chance (100% - 99.7%) a data point will be
beyond +/- 3 Standard Deviations. In fact since we are talking about two zones, one zone above the
+3 Standard Deviations and one below it, we have to split 0.3% in two, meaning there is only a
0.15% chance of being in one of the zones.
There is only a .0015 (.15%) probability a data point will either be above or below the UCL or LCL.
This is a very small probability as compared to .997 (99.75%) probability the data point will be
between the UCL and the LCL. What this means is there must have been something special happen
to cause a data point to be that far from the Mean; like a change in vendor, a mistake, etc. This is
why the term Special Cause or assignable cause variation applies. The probability a data point was
this far from the rest of the population is so low that something special or assignable happened.
Outliers are just that, they have a low probability of occurring, meaning we have lost control of our
process. This simple, quantitative approach using probability is the essence of all Control Charts.
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Size of Subgroups
Lot 1 Lot 5
Lot 3
Lot 2
Lot 4
Short-term studies
Long-term study
You really want to have subgroups with only Common Cause variation so if other sources of
variation are detected the sources will be easily found instead of buried within your definition of
subgroups.
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Frequency of Sampling
Sampling Frequency is a balance between cost of sampling and testing versus cost of not detecting
shifts in Mean or variation.
Process knowledge is an input to frequency of samples after the subgroup size has been decided.
- If a process shifts but cannot be detected because of too infrequent sampling the
customer suffers
- If choice is given of large subgroup samples infrequently or smaller subgroups
more frequently most choose to get information more frequently.
- In some processes with automated sampling and testing frequent sampling is
easy.
If undecided as to sample frequency sample more frequently to confirm detection of process shifts
and reduce frequency if process variation is still detectable.
A rule of thumb also states “sample a process at least 10 times more frequent than the frequency of
‘out of control’ conditions”.
Sometimes it can be a struggle how often to sample your process when monitoring results. Unless
the measurement is automated inexpensive and recorded with computers and able to be charted with
SPC software without operator involvement then frequency of sampling is an issue.
Let’s reemphasize some points. First, you do NOT want to under sample and not have the ability to
find Special Cause variation easily. Second, do not be afraid to sample more frequently and then
reduce the frequency if it is clear Special Causes are found frequently.
6.5
_
6.5 6.0
X=6.1
6
5.5 5.5
5 5.0
Sample every half hour LCL=4.815
1 7 13 19 25 31 37
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Observation
6.2
7
Individual Value
Individual Value
6.0
_ _
X=6.129 X=5.85
6 5.8
5.6
5
Sample every hour 5.4 Sample 4x per shift
5.2
LCL=5.141
4 LCL=4.090
5.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4
Observation Observation
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There are two categories of Control Charts for Continuous Data: charts for controlling the process
average and charts for controlling the process variation. Generally, the two categories are combined.
The principal types of Control Charts used in Six Sigma are: charts for Individual Values and Moving
Ranges (I-MR), charts for Averages and Ranges (XBar-R), charts for Averages and Standard
Deviations (XBar-S) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average charts (EWMA).
Although it is preferable to monitor and control products, services and supporting processes with
Continuous Data, there will be times when Continuous Data is not available or there is a need to
measure and control processes with higher level metrics, such as defects per unit. There are many
examples where process measurements are in the form of Attribute Data. Fortunately there are
control tools that can be used to monitor these characteristics and to control the critical process inputs
and outputs that are measured with Attribute Data.
Attribute Data, also called discrete data, reflects only one of two conditions: conforming or
nonconforming, pass or fail, go or no go. Four principal types of Control Charts are used to monitor
and control characteristics measured in Attribute Data: the p (proportion nonconforming), np (number
nonconforming), c (number of non-conformities), and u (non-conformities per unit) charts. Four
principle types of Control Charts are used to monitor and control characteristics measured in Discrete
Data: the p (proportion nonconforming), np (number nonconforming), c (number of non-conformities),
and u (non-conformities per unit) charts. These charts are an aid for decision making. With Control
Limits, they can help us filter out the probable noise by adequately reflecting the Voice of the Process.
A defective is defined as an entire unit, whether it be a product or service, that fails to meet
acceptance criteria, regardless of the number of defects in the unit. A defect is defined as the failure to
meet any one of the many acceptance criteria. Any unit with at least one defect may be considered to
be a defective. Sometimes more than one defect is allowed, up to some maximum number, before the
product is considered to be defective.
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Average & Range u Production is higher volume; allows process Mean and variability to be
or S viewed and assessed together; more sampling than with Individuals
(Xbar and R or Chart (I) and Moving Range Charts (MR) but when subgroups are
Xbar and S) desired. Outliers can cause issues with Range (R) charts so Standard
Deviation charts (S) used instead if concerned.
Most Common
Individual and u Production is low volume or cycle time to build product is long or
Moving Range homogeneous sample represents entire product (batch etc.); sampling
and testing is costly so subgroups are not desired. Control limits are
wider than Xbar Charts. Used for SPC on most inputs.
Less Common
The P Chart is the most common type of chart in understanding Attribute Control Charts.
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Control Charts indicate Special Causes being either assignable causes or patterns.
The following rules are applicable for both variable and Attribute Data to detect Special Causes.
These four rules are the only applicable tests for Range (R), Moving Range (MR) or Standard
Deviation (S) charts.
– One point more than 3 Standard Deviations from the Center Line.
– 6 points in a row all either increasing or all decreasing.
– 14 points in a row alternating up and down.
– 9 points in a row on the same side of the center line.
These remaining four rules are only for variable data to detect Special Causes.
– 2 out of 3 points greater than 2 Standard Deviations from the Center Line on the same
side.
– 4 out of 5 points greater than 1 Standard Deviation from the Center Line on the same
side.
– 15 points in a row all within one Standard Deviation of either side of the Center Line.
– 8 points in a row all greater than one Standard Deviation of either side of the Center
Line.
Remember Control Charts are used to monitor a process performance and to detect Special
Causes due to assignable causes or patterns. The standardized rules of your organization may
have some of the numbers slightly differing. For example, some organizations have 7 or 8 points
in a row on the same side of the Center Line. We will soon show you how to find what your
MINITABTM version has for defaults for the Special Cause tests.
There are typically 8 available tests for detecting Special Cause variation. Only 4 of the 8 Special
Cause tests can be used. Range, Moving Range or Standard Deviation charts are used to monitor
“within” variation.
If you are unsure of what is meant by these specific rule definitions, do not worry. The next few
pages will specifically explain how to interpret these rules.
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• If implementing SPC manually without software initially the most visually obvious
violations are more easily detected. SPC on manually filled charts are common place
for initial use of Defect Prevention techniques.
• These three rules are visually the most easily detected by personnel.
– One point more than 3 Standard Deviations from the Center Line.
– 6 points in a row all either increasing or all decreasing.
– 15 points in a row all within one Standard Deviation of either side of the Center Line.
• Dr. Shewhart working with the Western Electric Co. was credited with the following four
rules referred to as Western Electric Rules.
– One point more than 3 Standard Deviations from the Center Line.
– 8 points in a row on the same side of the Center Line.
– 2 out of 3 points greater than 2 Standard Deviations from the Center Line on the same side.
– 4 out of 5 points greater than 1 Standard Deviation from the Center Line on the same side.
• You might notice the Western Electric rules vary slightly. The importance is to be
consistent in your organization deciding what rules you will use to detect Special
Causes.
• VERY few organizations use all eight rules for detecting Special Causes.
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As promised, we will now closely review the definition of the Special Cause tests. The first test is
one point more than 3 sigmas from the Center Line. The 3 sigma lines are added or subtracted
from the Center Line. The sigma estimation for the short-term variation will be shown later in this
module.
If only one point is above the upper 3 sigma line or below the lower 3 sigma line, then a Special
Cause is indicated. This does not mean you need to confirm if another point is also outside of the 3
sigma lines before action is to be taken. Don’t forget the methodology of using SPC.
This is the MOST common Special Cause test used in SPC charts.
A
B
C
C
B
A
If you want to see the MINITABTM output on the left execute the MINITABTM command “Stat,
Control Charts, Variable Charts for Individuals, Individuals” then select the “Xbar-R Chart –
Options” then “Tests” tab. Remember your numbers may vary in the slide and those are set in
the defaults as you were shown recently in this module. From now on we will assume your rules
are the same as shown in this module. If not just adjust the conclusions.
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The third test looking This test is indicating a trend or gradual shift in the Mean.
for a Special Cause
is six points in a row
all increasing or all
decreasing. This
means if six
consecutive times Test 3 Six points in a row, all
increasing or decreasing
the present point is
A
higher than the
3
B
previous point then
C
the rule has been
C
violated and the
process is out of B
This rule obviously needs the time order when plotting on the SPC charts to be valid. Typically,
these charts plot increasing time from left to right with the most recent point on the right hand side
of the chart. Do not make the mistake of seeing six points in a line indicating an out of control
condition. Note on the example shown on the right, a straight line shows 7 points but it takes that
many in order to have six consecutive points increasing. This rule would be violated no matter
what zone the points occur.
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B
decreased from
A
the first point and
the third point
increased from
the second point
and so on for
fourteen points
then the process is considered out of control or a Special Cause is indicated. This rule does not
depend on the points being in any particular zone of the chart. Also note the process is not
considered to be out of control until after the 14th point has followed the alternating up and down
pattern.
Special Cause Test Examples
The fifth Special Cause This test is indicating a shift in the Mean or a worsening of
test looks for 2 out of 3 variation.
consecutive points more
than 2 sigma away from
the Center Line on the
same side. The 2 sigma Test 5 Two out of three points in
a row in zone A (one side of center
line is obviously 2/3 of line)
the distance from the A
5
Have you noticed MINITABTM will automatically place a number by the point that violates the
Special Cause rule and that number tells you which of the Special Cause tests has been violated.
In this example shown on the right the Special Cause rule was violated two times.
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A
make the wrong assumption
that the rule would not be
violated if one of the four
points was actually more
than 2 sigma from the
Center Line.
This test is indicating a dramatic improvement of the
The seventh Special Cause variation in the process.
test looks for 15 points in a
row all within one sigma
from the Center Line. You
might think this is a good Test 7 Fifteen points in a row in
thing and it certainly is. zone C (both sides of center line)
A
However you might want to
B
find the Special Cause for
C
this reduced variation so
C 7
the improvement can be B
sustained in the future. A
A
you reread the rule it just
states the points must be
more than one sigma from
the Center Line.
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This is a reference in case you really want to get into the nitty-gritty. The formulas shown here are
the basis for Control Charts.
Calculate the parameters of the Individual and MR Control Charts with the
following:
∑x i
∑R i
i
UCL x = X + E 2 MR UCL MR = D4 MR
X= i =1 MR =
k k LCL x = X − E 2 MR LCL MR = D 3 MR
Where ~
Xbar: Average of the individuals becomes the Center Line on the Individuals Chart
Xi: Individual data points
k: Number of individual data points
Ri : Moving range between individuals generally calculated using the difference between
each successive pair of readings
MRbar: The average moving range, the Center Line on the Range Chart
UCLX: Upper Control Limit on Individuals Chart
LCLX: Lower Control Limit on Individuals Chart
UCLMR: Upper Control Limit on moving range
LCLMR : Lower Control Limit on moving range (does not apply for sample sizes below 7)
E2, D3, D4: Constants that vary according to the sample size used in obtaining the moving
range
Calculate the parameters of the Xbar and R Control Charts with the
following:
∑x i ∑R
i
i UCL x = X + A2 R UCL R = D4 R
X= i =1
R = LCL x = X − A 2 R LCL R = D 3 R
k k
Where ~
Xi: Average of the subgroup averages, it becomes the Center Line of the Control Chart
Xi: Average of each subgroup
k: Number of subgroups
Ri : Range of each subgroup (Maximum observation – Minimum observation)
Rbar: The average range of the subgroups, the Center Line on the Range Chart
UCLX: Upper Control Limit on Average Chart
LCLX: Lower Control Limit on Average Chart
UCLR: Upper Control Limit on Range Chart
LCLR : Lower Control Limit Range Chart
A2, D3, D4: Constants that vary according to the subgroup sample size
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Yet another reference just in case anyone wants to do this stuff manually…have fun!!!!
Calculate the parameters of the Xbar and S Control Charts with the
following:
∑x i ∑s
i =1
i UCL x = X + A3 S UCLS = B4 S
X= i =1
S=
k k LCLx = X − A3 S LCLS = B3 S
Where ~
Xi: Average of the subgroup averages it becomes the Center Line of the Control Chart
Xi: Average of each subgroup
k: Number of subgroups
si : Standard Deviation of each subgroup
Sbar: The average S. D. of the subgroups, the Center Line on the S chart
UCLX: Upper Control Limit on Average Chart
LCLX: Lower Control Limit on Average Chart
UCLS: Upper Control Limit on S Chart
LCLS : Lower Control Limit S Chart
A3, B3, B4: Constants that vary according to the subgroup sample size
We are now moving to the formula summaries for the attribute SPC Charts. These formulas are fairly
basic. The upper and lower Control Limits are equidistant from the Mean % defective unless you
reach a natural limit of 100 or 0%. Remember the p Chart is for tracking the proportion or %
defective.
These formulas are a bit more elementary because they are for Attribute Control Charts. Recall p
Charts track the proportion or % defective.
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The nP Chart’s formulas resemble the P Chart. This chart tracks the number of defective items in a
subgroup.
The U Chart is also basic in construction and is used to monitor the number of defects per unit.
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The C Control Charts are a nice way of monitoring the number of defects in sampled subgroups.
LCLc = c − 3 c
Where ~
This EWMA can be considered a smoothing monitoring system with Control Limits. This is rarely
used without computers or automated calculations. The items plotted are NOT the actual
measurements but the weighted measurements. The exponentially weighted moving average is
useful for considering past and historical data and is most commonly used for individual
measurements although has been used for averages of subgroups.
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The CUSUM is an even more difficult technique to handle with manual calculations. We are not even
showing the math behind this rarely used chart. Following the Control Chart selection route shown
earlier, we remember the CUSUM is used when historical information is as important as present data.
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Pre-Control Charts
Pre-Control Charts use limits relative to the specification limits. This is the
first and ONLY chart wherein you will see specification limits plotted for
Statistical Process Control. This is the most basic type of chart and
unsophisticated use of process control.
The Pre-Control Charts are often used for startups with high scrap cost or low production volumes
between setups. Pre-Control Charts are like a stoplight are the easiest type of SPC to use by
operators or staff. Remember Pre-Control Charts are to be used ONLY for outputs of a process.
Another approach to using Pre-Control Charts is to use process capability to set the limits where
yellow and red meet.
Qualifying Process
• To qualify a process five consecutive parts must fall within the green zone
• The process should be qualified after tool changes, adjustments,
new operators, material changes, etc.
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SPC is an exciting
• The power of SPC is not to find out what the Center Line and Control Limits are.
tool but we must
• The power is to react to the Out of Control (OOC) indications with your Out of Control
not get enamored Action Plans (OCAP) for the process involved. These actions are your corrective
with it. The power actions to correct the output or input to achieve proper conditions.
of SPC is not to
find the Center Line VIOLATION:
and Control Limits Special Cause is indicated
but to react to out
of control
indications with an
out of control action OCAP:
plan. SPC for If response time is too high get
effectiveness at additional person on phone bank
controlling and
reducing long-term
• SPC requires immediate response to a Special Cause indication.
variation is to
• SPC also requires no sub optimizing by those operating the process.
respond
– Variability will increase if operators always adjust on every point if not at the
immediately to out Center Line. ONLY respond when an Out of Control or Special Cause is detected.
of control or – Training is required to interpret the charts and response to the charts.
Special Cause
indications. Plot an
I Chart of Individual Value from the worksheet titled “Individual Chart” and show the point that is out of
control. SPC can actually be harmful if those operating the process respond to process variation with
suboptimizing. A basic rule of SPC is if it is not out of control as indicated by the rules do not make
any adjustments. There are studies where an operator who responds to off center measurements will
actually produce worse variation than a process not altered at all. Remember, being off the Center
Line is NOT a sign of out of control because Common Cause variation exists.
Training is required to use and interpret the charts not to mention training for you as a Belt to properly
create an SPC chart.
Attribute SPC Example
Practical Problem: A project has been launched to get rework
reduced to less than 25% of paychecks. Rework includes contacting a
manager about overtime hours to be paid. The project made some
progress but decides they need to implement SPC to sustain the gains
and track % defective. Please analyze the file paycheck2.mtw and
determine the Control Limits and Center Line.
Step 3 and 5 of the methodology is the primary focus for this example.
– Select the appropriate Control Chart and Special Cause tests to
employ
– Calculate the Center Line and Control Limits
– Looking at the data set we see 20 weeks of data.
– The sample size is constant at 250.
– The amount of defective in the sample is in column C3.
Paycheck2.mtw
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We will confirm what rules for Special Causes are included in our
Control Chart analysis.
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…. Chart Options>Tests
Now we must see if the next few weeks are showing Special
Cause from the results. The sample size remained at 250 and the
defective checks were 61, 64, 77.
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Remember we have
calculated the Let’s continue our example:
Control Limits from
the first 20 weeks. – Step 6: Plot process X or Y on the newly created Control Chart
We must now put in – Step 7: Check for Out-Of-Control (OOC) conditions after each point
3 new weeks and – Step 8: Interpret findings, investigate Special Cause variation & make
NOT have improvements following the Out of Control Action Plan (OCAP)
MINITABTM calculate
new Control Limits
which will be done
automatically if we Notice the new 3 weeks of data
do not follow this was entered into the spreadsheet.
technique. Let’s now
execute Steps 6 - 8.
…… Chart Options>Parameters
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Because of the Special Cause the process must refer to the OCAP or Out of Control Action Plan
stating what Root Causes need to be investigated and what actions are taken to get the process
back in Control.
After the corrective actions were taken wait until the next sample is taken to see if the process
has changed to not show Special Cause actions.
– If still out of control refer to the OCAP to take further action to improve the process.
DO NOT make any more changes if the process shows back in Control after the next
reading.
• Even if the next reading seems higher than the Center Line! Do not cause more
variability.
If process changes are documented after this project was closed the Control Limits should be
recalculated as in step 9 of the SPC methodology.
Let’s walk through another example of using SPC within MINITABTM but in this case it will be with
Continuous Data. Open the MINITABTM worksheet titled “hole diameter.mtw” and select the
appropriate type of Control Chart and calculate the Center Line and Control Limits.
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VARYING VARYING
We will confirm what rules for Special Causes are included in our
Control Chart analysis.
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We will confirm what rules for Special Causes are included in our
Control Chart analysis. The top 2 of 3 were selected.
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No Special Causes were detected in the Xbar Chart. The average hole
diameter was 26.33. The UCL was 33.1 and 19.6 for the LCL.
Now we will use the Control Chart to monitor the next 2 hours and see if
we are still in control.
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Because of no Special Causes the process does not refer to the OCAP or Out of
Control Action Plan and NO actions are taken.
If process changes are documented after this project was closed the Control Limits
should be recalculated as in Step 9 of the SPC methodology.
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Remembering
many of the tests This is possible with ~
are based on the
1st and 2nd
Standard
Deviations from
the Center Line Stat>Quality Charts> …..
some Belts Options>S Limits tab
prefer to have
some additional
lines displayed.
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Notes
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Control Phase
Six Sigma Control Plans
Now we are going to continue in the Control Phase with “Six Sigma Control Plans”.
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Overview
The last physical result of the Control Phase is the Control Plan. This module will discuss a
technique to selection various solutions you might want from all of your defect reduction techniques
found earlier in this phase. We will also discuss elements of a Control Plan to aid you and your
organization to sustain your project’s results.
We will examine the meaning of each of these and show you how to apply them.
Welcome to Control
Lean Controls
Defect Controls
Solution Selection
Six Sigma Control Plans
Control Plan Elements
Wrap Up & Action Items
The Control Phase allows the Belt and team to tackle other processes in the
future.
– The elements of a Control Phase aid to document how to maintain the
process.
We have discussed all of the tools to improve and sustain your project success. However you might have
many options or too many options to implement final monitoring or controls. This module will aid you in
defect reduction selection.
Another objective of this module is to understand the elements of a good Control Plan needed to sustain
your gains.
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Selecting Solutions
Selecting solutions comes down to a business decision. The impact, cost and timeliness of the
improvement are all important. These improvement possibilities must be balanced against the
business needs. A cost benefit analysis is always a good tool to use to assist in determining the
priorities.
Recall us talking about the progression of a Six Sigma project? Practical Problem – Statistical
Problem – Statistical Solution – Practical Solution. Consider the Practical Solutions from a
business decision point of view.
Impact Considerations
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Cost Considerations
Time Considerations
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The significance rating is the relative ranking of outputs. If one output is rated a 10 and it is twice the
importance of a second output, the rating for the second output would be a 5. The improvements, usually
impacting the X’s, are listed and the relative impact of each item on the left is rated against its impact to
the output. The overall impact rating for one improvement is the sum of the individual impact ratings
multiplied by their respective significant rating of the output impacted. Items on the left having more
impacts on multiple outputs will have a higher overall impact rating. The cost and timing ratings are
multiplied against the overall impact rating.
The improvements listed with the highest overall ratings are the first to get consideration. The range of
impact ratings can be zero to seven. An impact of zero means no impact. The cost and timing ratings are
rated zero to seven. With zero being prohibitive in the cost or timing category.
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The recommended
Cost to Implement Ratings
cost ratings from zero
Improvement Costs are minimal with upfront and ongoing
to seven are here. In 7
expenses.
many companies,
Improvement Costs are low and can be expensed with no capital
expenditures that are 6
not capitalized usually authorization and recurring expenses are low.
are desired because Improvement Costs are low and can be expensed with no capital
5
they are smaller and authorization and recurring expenses are higher.
are merely expensed. Medium capital priority because of relative ranking of return on
4
Your business may investment.
have different Low capital priority because of relative ranking of return on
3
strategies or need of investment.
cash so consider your High capital and ongoing expenses make a low priority for capital
2
business’ situation. investment.
High capital and/or expenses without acceptable return on
1
investment.
Significant capital and ongoing expenses without alignment with
0
business priorities.
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These time ratings are ranked from zero to seven. You might wonder why for something that would
take a year or more we suggest a zero rating suggesting the improvement not be considered. Many
businesses have cycle times of products less than a year so improvements that long are ill
considered.
Example of Completed Solution Selection Matrix
Plenty of bottled water
Outside noises do not
interfer with speakers
"healthy choices"
OVERALL
COST TIME OVERALL
IMPACT
RATING RATING RATING
RATING
available
tasting
Significance Rating 10 9 8 9
Impact Impact Impact Impact
Potential Improvements Rating Rating Rating Rating
1 Hotel staff monitors room 2 2 6 0 86 7 7 4214
2 Mgmt visits/leaves ph # 2 0 4 0 52 7 7 2548
3 Replace old coffee makers/coffee 0 7 0 0 63 3 6 1134
4 Menus provided with nutrition info 0 0 0 4 36 5 5 900
5 Comp. gen. "quiet time" scheduled 6 0 0 0 60 3 3 540
6 Dietician approves menus 0 0 0 7 63 5 2 630
Again, higher overall ratings are the improvements to be considered. Do NOT forget about the
potential to run improvements in parallel. Running projects of complexity might need the experience
of a trained project manager. Often projects need to be managed with Gantt charts or timelines
showing critical milestones.
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We did it!!
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The 5 elements of a Control Plan include the documentation, monitoring, response, training and
aligning systems and structures.
Control Plan
& Structures
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Training Plan
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Training
Plan
Integration into
Schedule for Ongoing New Final Location of
Who Will Create Training Modules Who Will be Schedule for Employee Employee
Training Module Modules Completion Trained Training Trainer(s) Training Manuals
Documentation Plan
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Documentation
– Process documentation ~ Plan
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Documentation
Documentation Plan Outline Plan
Update/
Items Immediate Review
Document Modification
Necessary Responsibility Responsibility
Responsibility
Monitoring Plan
activities
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Knowledge Tests:
– When to Sample ~
Monitoring
• After training Plan
• Regular intervals
• Random intervals (often in auditing sense)
– How to Sample
– How to Measure
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Response Plan
Potential C
Process Potential S Potential O Current D R Responsible S O D R
Failure Modes l Recommend Taken
# Function Failure Effects E Causes of C Process E P Person & E C E P
(process a Actions Actions
(Step) (Y's) V Failure (X's) C Controls T N Target Date V C T N
defects) s
1
Monitoring Plan
Check Lists/Matrices
– Key items to check
Monitoring
– Decision criteria; decision road map Plan
– Multi-variable tables
Visual Management
– Alerts or signals to trigger action ~
• Empty bins being returned to when need stock
replenished
• Red/yellow/green reports to signal process performance
– Can be audible also
– 5S is necessary for Visual Management
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Response Plan
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Response Plan
• Detailed documentation Process
Current Situation
Signal
Date
Investigation of Cause
• Reinforce
commitment to Code of Cause
eliminating defects.
Corrective Action
– Job descriptions
– Incentive compensation
– Incentive programs, contests, etc
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desired behaviors
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Remember a basic change management idea you learned in the Define Phase. If you get
involvement of team members who work in the process and keep the project Champion and
process owner updated as to results then you have the greatest chance of success.
You have now completed Control Phase – Six Sigma Control Plans.
Notes
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Control Phase
Wrap Up and Action Items
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Gooooaaallllll!!
Organizational Change
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Breakthrough!!
DMAIC Roadmap
Process Owner
Champion/
Estimate COPQ
Establish Team
Measure
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Control Phase
Improvement Selected
Go to Next Project
Control Questions
Step One: Process Enhancement And Control Results
• How do the results of the improvement(s) match the requirements of the business
case and improvement goals?
• What are the vital few X’s?
• How will you control or redesign these X’s?
• Is there a process Control Plan in place?
• Has the Control Plan been handed off to the process owner?
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Summary
• Be ready to apply the Lean Six Sigma method on your NEXT project
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It’s a Wrap
Congratulations you
have completed Lean
Six Sigma Green Belt
Training!!!
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Glossary
Affinity Diagram - A technique for organizing individual pieces of information into groups or broader categories.
ANOVA - Analysis of Variance – A statistical test for identifying significant differences between process or
system treatments or conditions. It is done by comparing the variances around the means of the conditions
being compared.
Attribute Data - Data which on one of a set of discrete values such as pass or fail, yes or no.
Average - Also called the mean, it is the arithmetic average of all of the sample values. It is calculated by adding
all of the sample values together and dividing by the number of elements (n) in the sample.
Bar Chart - A graphical method which depicts how data fall into different categories.
Black Belt - An individual who receives approximately four weeks training in DMAIC, analytical problem solving,
and change management methods. A Black Belt is a full time six sigma team leader solving problems under the
direction of a Champion.
Breakthrough Improvement - A rate of improvement at or near 70% over baseline performance of the as-is
process characteristic.
Capability - A comparison of the required operation width of a process or system to its actual performance
width. Expressed as a percentage (yield), a defect rate (dpm, dpmo,), an index (Cp, Cpk, Pp, Ppk), or as a
sigma score (Z).
Cause and Effect Diagram - Fishbone Diagram - A pictorial diagram in the shape of a fishbone showing all
possible variables that could affect a given process output measure.
Central Tendency - A measure of the point about which a group of values is clustered; two measures of central
tendency are the mean, and the median.
Champion - A Champion recognizes, defines, assigns and supports the successful completion of six sigma
projects; they are accountable for the results of the project and the business roadmap to achieve six sigma
within their span of control.
Common Causes of Variation - Those sources of variability in a process which are truly random, i.e., inherent
in the process itself.
Complexity -The level of difficulty to build, solve or understand something based on the number of inputs,
interactions and uncertainty involved.
Control Chart - The most powerful tool of statistical process control. It consists of a run chart, together with
statistically determined upper and lower control limits and a centerline.
Control Limits - Upper and lower bounds in a control chart that are determined by the process itself. They can
be used to detect special or common causes of variation. They are usually set at ±3 standard deviations from
the central tendency.
Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ) - The costs associated with any activity that is not doing the right thing right the
first time. It is the financial qualification any waste that is not integral to the product or service which your
company provides.
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Glossary
CP - A capability measure defined as the ratio of the specification width to short-term process performance
width.
CPk -. An adjusted short-term capability index that reduces the capability score in proportion to the offset of the
process center from the specification target.
Critical to Quality (CTQ) - Any characteristic that is critical to the perceived quality of the product, process or
system. See Significant Y.
Critical X - An input to a process or system that exerts a significant influence on any one or all of the key
outputs of a process.
Customer - Anyone who uses or consumes a product or service, whether internal or external to the providing
organization or provider.
Cycle Time - The total amount of elapsed time expended from the time a task, product or service is started
until it is completed.
Defect - An output of a process that does not meet a defined specification, requirement or desire such as time,
length, color, finish, quantity, temperature etc.
Deployment (Six Sigma) - The planning, launch, training and implementation management of a six sigma
initiative within a company.
Design of Experiments (DOE) - Generally, it is the discipline of using an efficient, structured, and proven
approach to interrogating a process or system for the purpose of maximizing the gain in process or system
knowledge.
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) - The use of six sigma thinking, tools and methods applied to the design of
products and services to improve the initial release performance, ongoing reliability, and life-cycle cost.
DMAIC - The acronym for core phases of the six sigma methodology used to solve process and business
problems through data and analytical methods. See define, measure, analyze, improve and control.
DPMO - Defects per million opportunities – The total number of defects observed divided by the total number
of opportunities, expressed in parts per million. Sometimes called Defects per Million (DPM).
DPU - Defects per unit - The total number of defects detected in some number of units divided by the total
number of those units.
Entitlement - The best demonstrated performance for an existing configuration of a process or system. It is an
empirical demonstration of what level of improvement can potentially be reached.
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) - A procedure used to identify, assess, and mitigate risks
associated with potential product, system, or process failure modes.
Finance Representative - An individual who provides an independent evaluation of a six sigma project in
terms of hard and/or soft savings. They are a project support resource to both Champions and Project
Leaders.
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Flowchart - A graphic model of the flow of activities, material, and/or information that occurs during a process.
Gage R&R - Quantitative assessment of how much variation (repeatability and reproducibility) is in a measurement
system compared to the total variation of the process or system.
Green Belt - An individual who receives approximately two weeks of training in DMAIC, analytical problem solving,
and change management methods. A Green Belt is a part time six sigma position that applies six sigma to their
local area, doing smaller-scoped projects and providing support to Black Belt projects.
Hidden Factory or Operation - Corrective and non-value-added work required to produce a unit of output that is
generally not recognized as an unnecessary generator of waste in form of resources, materials and cost.
Histogram - A bar chart that depicts the frequencies (by the height of the plotted bars) of numerical or
measurement categories.
Implementation Team - A cross-functional executive team representing various areas of the company . Its charter
is to drive the implementation of six sigma by defining and documenting practices, methods and operating policies.
Input - A resource consumed, utilized, or added to a process or system. Synonymous with X, characteristic, and
input variable.
Input-Process-Output (IPO) Diagram - A visual representation of a process or system where inputs are
represented by input arrows to a box (representing the process or system) and outputs are shown using arrows
emanating out of the box.
lshikawa Diagram - See cause and effect diagram and fishbone diagram.
Least Squares - A method of curve-fitting that defines the best fit as the one that minimizes the sum of the squared
deviations of the data points from the fitted curve.
Long-term Variation - The observed variation of an input or output characteristic which has had the opportunity to
experience the majority of the variation effects that influence it.
Lower Control Limit (LCL) - for control charts: the limit above which the subgroup statistics must remain for the
process to be in control. Typically, 3 standard deviations below the central tendency.
Lower Specification Limit (LSL) - The lowest value of a characteristic which is acceptable.
Master Black Belt - An individual who has received training beyond a Black Belt. The technical, go-to expert
regarding technical and project issues in six sigma. Master Black Belts teach and mentor other six sigma Belts,
their projects and support Champions.
Measurement - The act of obtaining knowledge about an event or characteristic through measured quantification
or assignment to categories.
Measurement Accuracy - For a repeated measurement, it is a comparison of the average of the measurements
compare to some known standard.
Measurement Precision - For a repeated measurement, it is the amount of variation that exists in the measured
values.
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Glossary
Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA) - An assessment of the accuracy and precision of a method of obtaining
measurements. See also Gage R&R.
Median - The middle value of a data set when the values are arranged in either ascending or descending order.
Metric - A measure that is considered to be a key indicator of performance. It should be linked to goals or
objectives and carefully monitored.
Nominal Group Technique - A structured method that a team can use to generate and rank a list of ideas or items.
Non-Value Added (NVA) - Any activity performed in producing a product or delivering a service that does not add
value, where value is defined as changing the form, fit or function of the product or service and is something for
which the customer is willing to pay.
Normal Distribution - The distribution characterized by the smooth, bell- shaped curve. Synonymous with
Gaussian Distribution.
Objective Statement - A succinct statement of the goals, timing and expectations of a six sigma improvement
project.
Opportunities - The number of characteristics, parameters or features of a product or service that can be classified
as acceptable or unacceptable.
Out of Control - A process is said to be out of control if it exhibits variations larger than its control limits or shows a
pattern of variation.
Output - A resource or item or characteristic that is the product of a process or system. See also Y, CTQ.
Pareto Chart - A bar chart for attribute (or categorical) data categories are presented in descending order of
frequency.
Pareto Principle - The general principle originally proposed by Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) that the majority of
influence on an outcome is exerted by a minority of input factors.
Problem Statement - A succinct statement of a business situation which is used to bound and describe the
problem the six sigma project is attempting to solve.
Process - A set of activities and material and/or information flow which transforms a set of inputs into outputs for
the purpose of producing a product, providing a service or performing a task.
Process Characterization - The act of thoroughly understanding a process, including the specific relationship(s)
between its outputs and the inputs, and its performance and capability.
Process Certification - Establishing documented evidence that a process will consistently produce required
outcome or meet required specifications.
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Glossary
Process Member - A individual who performs activities within a process to deliver a process output, a product
or a service to a customer.
Process Owner - Process Owners have responsibility for process performance and resources. They provide
support, resources and functional expertise to six sigma projects. They are accountable for implementing
developed six sigma solutions into their process.
Quality Function Deployment (QFD) - A systematic process used to integrate customer requirements into
every aspect of the design and delivery of products and services.
Range - A measure of the variability in a data set. It is the difference between the largest and smallest values
in a data set.
Regression Analysis - A statistical technique for determining the mathematical relation between a measured
quantity and the variables it depends on. Includes Simple and Multiple Linear Regression.
Repeatability (of a Measurement) - The extent to which repeated measurements of a particular object with a
particular instrument produce the same value. See also Gage R&R.
Reproducibility (of a Measurement) - The extent to which repeated measurements of a particular object with
a particular individual produce the same value. See also Gage R&R.
Risk Priority Number (RPN) - In Failure Mode Effects Analysis -- the aggregate score of a failure mode
including its severity, frequency of occurrence, and ability to be detected.
Rolled Throughput Yield (RTY) - The probability of a unit going through all process steps or system
characteristics with zero defects.
R.U.M.B.A. - An acronym used to describe a method to determine the validity of customer requirements. It
stands for Reasonable, Understandable, Measurable, Believable, and Achievable.
Run Chart - A basic graphical tool that charts a characteristic’s performance over time.
Scatter Plot - A chart in which one variable is plotted against another to determine the relationship, if any,
between the two.
Screening Experiment - A type of experiment to identify the subset of significant factors from among a large
group of potential factors.
Short Term Variation - The amount of variation observed in a characteristic which has not had the opportunity
to experience all the sources of variation from the inputs acting on it.
Sigma Score (Z) - A commonly used measure of process capability that represents the number of short-term
standard deviations between the center of a process and the closest specification limit. Sometimes referred to
as sigma level, or simply Sigma.
Significant Y - An output of a process that exerts a significant influence on the success of the process or the
customer.
Six Sigma Leader - An individual that leads the implementation of Six Sigma, coordinating all of the necessary
activities, assures optimal results are obtained and keeps everyone informed of progress made.
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Six Sigma Project - A well defined effort that states a business problem in quantifiable terms and with known
improvement expectations.
Six Sigma (System) - A proven set of analytical tools, project management techniques, reporting methods and
management techniques combined to form a powerful problem solving and business improvement methodology.
Special Cause Variation - Those non-random causes of variation that can be detected by the use of control charts
and good process documentation.
Stability (of a Process) - A process is said to be stable if it shows no recognizable pattern of change and no
special causes of variation are present.
Standard Deviation - One of the most common measures of variability in a data set or in a population. It is the
square root of the variance.
Statistical Problem - A problem that is addressed with facts and data analysis methods.
Statistical Process Control (SPC) - The use of basic graphical and statistical methods for measuring, analyzing,
and controlling the variation of a process for the purpose of continuously improving the process. A process is said to
be in a state of statistical control when it exhibits only random variation.
Statistical Solution - A data driven solution with known confidence/risk levels, as opposed to a qualitative, “I think”
solution.
Supplier - An individual or entity responsible for providing an input to a process in the form of resources or
information.
TSSW - Thinking the six sigma way – A mental model for improvement which perceives outcomes through a cause
and effect relationship combined with six sigma concepts to solve everyday and business problems.
Two-Level Design - An experiment where all factors are set at one of two levels, denoted as low and high (-1 and +
1).
Upper Control Limit (UCL) for Control Charts - The upper limit below which a process statistic must remain to be
in control. Typically this value is 3 standard deviations above the central tendency.
Upper Specification Limit (USL) - The highest value of a characteristic which is acceptable.
Variability - A generic term that refers to the property of a characteristic, process or system to take on different
values when it is repeated.
Variable Data - Data which is continuous, which can be meaningfully subdivided, i.e. can have decimal
subdivisions.
Variance - A specifically defined mathematical measure of variability in a data set or population. It is the square of
the standard deviation.
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Glossary
VOB - Voice of the business – Represents the needs of the business and the key stakeholders of the business.
It is usually items such as profitability, revenue, growth, market share, etc.
VOC - Voice of the customer – Represents the expressed and non-expressed needs, wants and desires of the
recipient of a process output, a product or a service. Its is usually expressed as specifications, requirements or
expectations.
VOP - Voice of the process – Represents the performance and capability of a process to achieve both
business and customer needs. It is usually expressed in some form of an efficiency and/or effectiveness
metric.
Waste - Waste represents material, effort and time that does not add value in the eyes of key stakeholders
(Customers, Employees, Investors).
X - An input characteristic to a process or system. In six sigma it is usually used in the expression of Y=f(X),
where the output (Y) is a function of the inputs (X).
Y - An output characteristic of a process. In six sigma it is usually used in the expression of Y=f(X), where the
output (Y) is a function of the inputs (X).
Yellow Belt - An individual who receives approximately one week of training in problem solving and process
optimization methods. Yellow Belts participate in Process Management activates, participate on Green and
Black Belt projects and apply concepts to their work area and their job.
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