TTE 4274:

Transportation Engineering Systems

Instructor: Sabreena Anowar, PhD

Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering
University of Central Florida

1
Today’s Outline

 Methods for analyzing travel demand

 Route choice

2
 Tij,auto
TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
I Mode Split J

Tij,transit
I

Route choice J

3
Traffic Assignment
• Simulate the way in which individual drivers choose
their travel routes from their trip origins to their trip
destinations
• Factors influencing these decisions
• Driver's route choice behavior
• Characteristics of route network

4
Four Step Procedure Example

5
Traffic Assignment – Factors
• Factors influencing these decisions
• Driver's route choice behavior:
• Travel time (the shorter is the better)
• Safety (the safer is the better)
• Reliability (the routes that are longer in average, but are more
predictable in terms of arrival at destinations are more desirable
than these that are faster in average, but suffer larger variation)
• Costs (the less costly is the better)
• Characteristics of route network:
• Network configuration: nodes and links
• Network conditions: types of roads, speed, safety
• Road traffic performance - how quality of service on individual
roads (travel time) changes by the degree of usage (volume).
6
Traffic Assignment – Components
• Four major components are normally required
• A network model in which each road (link) is associated
with a function representing the performance
characteristic of the link
• A criterion which drivers (transit users) use in selecting
the most desired routes (usually travel time)
• A shortest path search technique
• A method of allocating the car trips to the selected routes

7
Route Choice Model
• Route Choice is a classic equilibrium problem
• Travelers route choice decisions are a function of route
travel times, which are determined by traffic flow - which
itself is a function of route choice decision
• To model route choice – a mathematical relationship
between: Travel time (t) and Traffic flow (x)
• Highway Performance Function (HPF)
• Common term for this relationship

8
 Highway Performance Function (HPF)

 Travel time at flow = 0

is free flow time
Travel Time, tn

Linear  Travel time increases

with linearly with flow

 Simple but not realistic

Free Flow representation of travel-
Travel Time time and traffic flow
relationship
Traffic Flow, xn (veh/hr)

9
 Highway Performance Function
 The point where performance function is asymptotic to the y-
axis is referred to as capacity of the link
Common non-linear
performance function:

  xn  
Travel Time, tn

t n  t fn 1     
  xcm  
 tn = travel time on segment
(route) n, usually in min.
 tfn = free-flow travel time on
Free Flow Non-Linear segment (route) n, in min.
Travel Time
 xn = traffic flow on segment
(route) n, in veh/hr.
Capacity  xcm = link capacity, in veh/hr.
Traffic Flow, xn (veh/hr)
 ,  = model parameters10
Methodologies
 There are two different theories of travel
route choice - Wardrop’s principles:
1. User equilibrium
2. System optimization

11
User Equilibrium
 Travelers will select the route that minimizes their personal
travel time between their origin and destination
 User equilibrium (UE) is said to exist when travelers at the
individual level cannot unilaterally improve their travel times
by changing routes
 A formal definition (Wardrop’s user equilibrium) is:
 “The travel time between a specified origin and destination
on all used routes is equal, and less than or equal to the
travel time that would be experienced by a traveler on any
unused route”

12
Basic Assumptions
1. Travelers select routes on the basis of route travel
times ONLY:
 People select the path with the shortest travel time
 Premise: Travel time is the major criterion and other
factors such as “risk perception”, familiarity, and
highway/pavement conditions do not count.

2. Travelers know travel times on all available routes

between their origin and destination
 Strong assumption: Travelers may not have used all
available routes, and may base travel times on perception
 Some studies say perception bias is small
13
Example Problem
Example 1 Two routes connect a city and a suburb. During the
peak-hour morning commute, a total of 4,500 vehicles travel
from the suburb to the city.
Route 1 has a 60 mph speed limit and is 6 miles in length.
Route 2 is 3 mi in length as long with a 45 mph speed limit.
Studies show that
•Travel time in Route 1 increases at the rate of 4 min for
every additional 1,000 vehicles per hour.
•Travel time in Route 2 increases as the square of volume of
vehicles in thousands per hour. Compute user equilibrium
travel times on the two routes.
Route 1

City Route 2 Suburb

14
Solution
1. Free-flow travel time:
- Route 1 free-flow travel time is 6 minutes, since free-
flow time = distance/speed = 6/(60/60) = 6min.
- Route 2 free-flow travel time is 4 minutes, since free-
flow time = distance/speed = 6/(45/60) = 4min.
2. Determine performance functions
t1 = 6 + 4x1
t 2 = 4 + x2 2
where:
t1, t2 = average travel time on routes 1 and 2 in min
x1 and x2 = traffic flows on routes 1 and 2 in thousands
per hour
3. Flow constraint: x1 + x2 = 4.5 15
Solution
4. Checking if both routes be used:
All or nothing assignment on Route 1
t1 (4.5)  6  44.5  24 min If all the traffic is on Route 1
then Route 2 is the desirable
t 2 (0)  4  0   4 min
2
choice
All or nothing assignment on Route 2
t1 (0)  6  40   6 min If all the traffic is on
t 2 (4.5)  4  4.5  24.25 min Route 2 then Route 1 is
2

the desirable choice

Therefore, both routes will be used.
5. Then, based on the user equilibrium definition:
t 1 = t2
Or 6 + 4x1 = 4 + x22 (1)
From the flow conservation: x1 + x2 = 4.5 (2)
Replacing, (2) in (1):
6 + 4(4.5 - x2) = 4 + x22
Solving: x2 = 2.899 or 2899 veh/h and x1 =1601 veh/h 16
Example Problem
Example 2 Three routes connect an origin and destination with
performance functions: t1 = 8 + 0.5x1, t2 = 1 + 2x2, t3 = 3 + 0.75x3
(with t’s in minutes and x’s in thousands of veh/hour). Determine
user-equilibrium flows if the total origin-to-destination demand is
3,400 veh/h.

17
Mathematical Programming Approach
 Finding the set of flows that equates travel times when many
routes are involved can be cumbersome
 To deal with this problem, we can formulate the user
equilibrium problem as a mathematical programming model:
xn

min S x     t wdw
n
n
Subject to (constraints): 0

xn  0 - Flow on all routes is greater than or equal to zero

q = n xn - Flow conservation (Flow on all routes between an
origin and destination sums to the total number of vehicles
n = A specific route between given a O-D pair
tn(w) = Performance function corresponding to route n
(where w denotes flow, xn’s)
18
Example Problem
Example 3 Solve previous example (1) by formulating user
equilibrium problem as a mathematical programming model.

19
Solution
The performance functions are:
t1 = 6 + 4x1
t2 = 4 + x22
and, x1 + x2 = 4.5
Substituting these into Eq.: xn

min S x     t wdw
n
x1 n 0 x2

min S x    ( 6  4w )dw   ( 4  w2 )dw

0 0

The problem can solved in terms of x2 = 4.5 – x1

x1 x2  4.5 x1

min S x    ( 6  4w )dw   ( 4  w 2
)dw
0 0
3 4.5 x1 ( 4.5  x1 )3
S x   6w  2w 2 x1
 4w 
w   6 x1  2 x  4( 4.5  x1 ) 
2
1
0 3 3
0
20
Solution
Remember that: (x+y)3 = x3 + 3x2y + 3xy2 + y3

4 .5 3 x13
S  x   6 x1  2 x  18  4 x1 
2
1  4.5 x1  4.5 x1 
2 2

3 3

dS
for a minimum :  6  4 x1  4  20.25  9 x1  x12  0
dx

simplifyin g : x12  13 x1  18 .25  0  Same equation as before

Solving this quadratic equation:

x1 = 1.601 or 1601 veh/hr
x2 = 2.899 or 2899 veh/h
21
System-Optimal Route Choice

 According to this principle

 Travelers will behave such that total-system travel
time will be minimized
 Even though travelers may be able to decrease their
own individual times by changing routes
 Also know as design principle

22
System-optimal problem
The system-optimal (SO) route choice is given by the following
mathematical programming model:

min S x    xntn xn 

n
As before, this function is subject to the constrains of flow
conservation (q = n xn) and non-negativity (xn  0)

Where:
n = Route between given O-D pair
tn(xn) = travel time for a specific route
xn = Flow on a specific route

23
Example Problem
Example 4 Solve example 1, but using the system-equilibrium
principle:

During the peak-hour morning commute, a total of 4,500 vehicles

travel from the suburb to the city. Route 1 has a 60-mph speed
limit and is 6 miles long. Route 2 is 3 miles with a 45-mph speed
limit.
Route 1

City Route 2 Suburb

24
Solution
 The performance functions for the route 1 and 2 are:
t1 = 6 + 4x1
t 2 = 4 + x22 S x    tn xn
 Formulate the SO equation: n

 
S x   6  4 x1 x1  4  x22 x2
 From the flow conservation, we know that x1 = 4.5 – x2, from
which:
S ( x)  6(4.5  x2 )  4(4.5  x2 ) 2  4 x2  x23
160

To find the minimum, we 140

120

derivate and set to zero: 100

80
60

 6  424.5  x2  1  4  3x22  0

dS 40
20
dx 0
3x22  8 x2  38  0 0 2 4 25 6
Solution
x2  2.467 x1  2.033

This gives:
From these flows, travel times for system-optimal are:

t1 = 6+4(2.033) = 14.13 min

t2 = 4+ (2.467)2 = 10.08 min
Then, total travel time is:
n
S x    ti xi  14.132033  10.082467  53,592 veh - min
i 1

26
 Solution
Comparing UE with SO:

 User equilibrium  System optimization

They are
– t1 = 12.4 min – t1 = 14.3 min They are
the same – t2 = 12.4 min – t2 = 10.08 min different
– x1 = 1,600 veh – x1 = 2,033 veh
– x2 = 2,900 veh – x2 = 2,467 veh
– tixi = 55,800 veh-min – tixi = 53,592 veh-min

27
Example Problem
Example 5 Given a flow of 6 units (6,000 veh/hr) from origin “1”
to destination “3”. Flow on each route is designated with xij in the
time function.
Link Time function Flow Time
(tij) min 2 3

1-2 5*x12
2-3 25 + x23
1-4 20 + 2*x14 1 4

4-3 5 *x43

A. Applying User equilibrium principle, what is the flow and travel

time on each link (complete the table above)?
B. What is the system optimal assignment?
C. What is the difference in travel time savings between UE and SO?
28
Example Problem
Example 6 Two routes connect a suburban area and a city with
route travel times (in min) given by the expressions:
t1 = 6 + 8 (x1 / c1)
t2 = 10 + 3 (x2 / c2),
Where the x’s are expressed in thousands of veh/h and c’s are the
route capacities in thousands of veh/hr. Initially the capacity of
routes1 and 2 are 4,000 and 2000 veh/h, respectively. A
reconstruction project on route 1 reduces the capacity to 3,000
veh/h but total traffic demand is unaffected. It is observed that
that after the reconstruction begins: average travel time increases
in 35.28 seconds on route 1 and flow on route 2 increases in
68.5%. User equilibrium conditions exist before and during
reconstruction. If both routes are always used, determine
equilibrium flows and travel times before and after
reconstruction. 29
Travel Demand Modeling

30
References
 Meyer, M. D. and Miller, E. J. (2001). 2nd edition. Urban
Transportation Planning, McGraw Hill, New York.
 Ortuzar, J. de D. and Willumsen, L. G. (2001). 3rd edition.
Modelling Transport, John Wiley & Sons.
 Principles of Highway and Traffic Engineering, Fifth Edition,
by Fred L Mannering, and Scott Washburn, Wiley, 2013.
 Traffic and Highway Engineering, Second Edition, by Nicholas
J. Garber and Lester A. Hoel, PWS Publishing, 1999.

31