Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13

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Weather and Climate Extremes

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/wace

Managing drought risk in a changing climate: The role of national

drought policy
Donald A. Wilhite a,n, Mannava V.K. Sivakumar b, Roger Pulwarty c
a
School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA
b
27 Chemin des Corbillettes, 1216 Cointrin, Geneva, Switzerland
c
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office and Earth Systems Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway R/ESRL, Boulder, CO
80305, USA

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: There is increasing concern worldwide about the ineffectiveness of current drought management
Received 11 September 2013 practices that are largely based on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only
Accepted 13 January 2014 treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes for the vulnerabilities
Available online 18 March 2014
associated with impacts. Through the adoption of national drought policies that are focused on risk
Keywords: reduction and complemented by drought mitigation or preparedness plans at various levels of
Drought policy government, the coping capacity of nations to manage droughts can be improved. The time for adopting
Drought preparedness an approach that emphasizes drought risk reduction is now, given the spiraling impacts of droughts in
Drought planning an ever-increasing number of sectors and the current and projected trends for the increased frequency,
Drought management
severity and duration of drought events in association with a changing climate. This paper discusses the
Early warning systems
underlying concepts of drought, the principles and objectives of national drought policies and a drought
planning process that has been effective in the preparation of drought mitigation plans.
& 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

1. Introduction Although agriculture has typically been the first and most affected
sector, many other sectors, including energy production, tourism and
In recent years, concern has grown worldwide that droughts may recreation, transportation, urban water supply, and the environment,
be increasing in frequency, severity, and duration given changing have also experienced significant losses.
climatic conditions and documented increases in extreme climate Despite the increase in droughts and spiraling impacts, no con-
events (Sivakumar, 2012; Peterson et al., 2013). Responses to drought certed efforts have been made at the global level to initiate a dialogue
by governments throughout the world are generally reactive – poorly on the formulation and adoption of national drought policies that
coordinated and untimely – and are typically characterized as “crisis provide a framework for a proactive, risk-based management for
management” (Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2005). In addition, the provision dealing with drought events. Without a coordinated national drought
of drought relief or assistance to those most affected has been shown policy that includes comprehensive monitoring, early warning and
to increase vulnerability to future drought episodes by reducing self- information systems, impact assessment procedures, risk management
reliance and increasing dependence on government and donor measures, drought preparedness plans, and emergency response
organizations. Thus, it is imperative that emergency relief be provided programs, nations will continue to respond to drought in a reactive,
in such a manner that it provides a safety net for those elements of crisis management mode. Countries that have not developed such
society that are most vulnerable while promoting self-reliance and the systems, even in part, to develop and inform strategic response
principles of a national drought policy based on the concept of risk options often illustrate a broader lack of institutional flexibility and
reduction. preparedness and thus higher vulnerability (IPCC, 2012).
As a direct result of the increase in drought frequency, severity and In order to address the issue of national drought policy, the
duration, and the narrowing of the gap between water supply and World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Secretariat of the
demand, there has been a remarkable increase in the impacts United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
associated with drought in both developing and developed countries. and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAO), in collaboration with a number of partners, organized the
High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) in
n Geneva, Switzerland, 11–15 March 2013 (WMO, 2013a).
Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 1 402.472.4270.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (D.A. Wilhite), The goal of HMNDP was to provide practical insight into useful,
[email protected] (M.V.K. Sivakumar), [email protected] (R. Pulwarty). science-based actions to address key drought issues and various

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.01.002
2212-0947/& 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13 5

strategies to cope with drought. National governments must adopt climate. But, drought is a temporary feature of climate so it cannot,
policies that engender cooperation and coordination at all levels of by definition, occur 100% of the time.
their administration in order to increase their capacity to cope Drought must be considered a relative, rather than absolute,
with extended periods of water shortage resulting from drought. condition. It occurs in both high and low rainfall areas and
The ultimate goal of this effort is to create more drought resilient virtually all climatic regimes. The impacts of drought are, at times,
societies and ensure food security and the sustainability of natural enormous and result in economic and environmental impacts as
resource systems at the domestic level. well as personal hardship. Some countries are now finding it
prudent to develop or consider national strategies and policies to
manage droughts more effectively. Although this approach might
be expected in drought-prone nations like Australia, South Africa,
2. The Enigma of drought the United States, and India, it is less expected in Malaysia, China,
and many European countries—areas normally considered as
Drought differs from other natural hazards in several ways. having a surplus of water.
First, drought is a slow-onset natural hazard often referred to as a The impacts of drought appear to be increasing in both developing
creeping phenomenon (Gillette, 1950). Because of the creeping and developed countries, a clear sign of unsustainable resource use
nature of drought, its effects accumulate slowly over a substantial and growing pressures on natural resources. Many factors are con-
period of time. Therefore, the onset and end of drought is difficult tributing to this trend and will be discussed in greater detail later in
to determine and scientists and policy makers often disagree on this paper. Adding to the concern regarding increasing societal
the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to drought. Should vulnerability is concern over how the threat of climate change may
drought's end be signaled by a return to normal precipitation and, increase the frequency, severity and, in the case of drought, duration of
if so, over what period of time does normal or above-normal these extreme climatic events in the future. As pressure on finite water
precipitation need to be sustained for the drought to be declared supplies and other limited natural resources continue to build, more
officially over? Do precipitation deficits that emerged during the frequent and severe droughts are cause for concern in both water
drought event need to be erased for the event to end and how short and water surplus regions where conflicts within and between
much moisture will it take and over what time period? Do countries are growing over access to a safe and dependable water
reservoirs and ground water levels need to return to normal or supply. Reducing the impacts of future drought events is paramount
average conditions? Impacts linger for a considerable period of as part of a national development strategy and a climate change
time following the return of normal precipitation, so is the end of adaptation plan.
drought signaled by meteorological or climatological factors or Drought, like all natural hazards, has both a natural and social
diminishing impacts? dimension. In most cases the social dimension is the factor that
Second, the absence of a precise and universally accepted definition turns a hazard into a disaster. The risk associated with drought for
of drought adds to the confusion about whether or not a drought any region is a product of both the region's exposure to the event
exists and, if it does, its degree of severity. Realistically, definitions of (i.e., probability of occurrence at various severity levels) and
drought must be region and application (or impact) specific (Wilhite the vulnerability of society to the event (Blaikie et al., 1994).
and Glantz, 1985). This is one explanation for the scores of definitions The natural event (i.e., meteorological drought) is a result of the
that exist. For this reason, the search for a universal definition of occurrence of persistent large-scale disruptions in the global
drought is of little value. Policy makers are often frustrated by circulation pattern of the atmosphere (Nicholls et al., 2005).
disagreements among scientists on whether or not a drought exists Exposure to drought varies spatially and there is little, if anything,
and its degree of severity. we can do to alter drought occurrence. Vulnerability, on the other
Third, drought impacts are nonstructural and spread over a hand, is determined by social factors such as population changes,
larger geographical area than are damages that result from other population shifts (regional and rural to urban), demographic
natural hazards. Quantifying the impacts and providing disaster characteristics, technology, government policies, environmental
relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than for other natural awareness and degradation, water use trends, and social behavior.
hazards since these impacts can filter through economies and the These factors change over time and thus vulnerability is likely to
environment for months, years and even decades. These charac- increase or decrease in response to these changes. Subsequent
teristics of drought have hindered development of accurate, droughts in the same region will have different effects, even if they
reliable, and timely estimates of severity and impacts (i.e., drought are identical in intensity, duration, and spatial characteristics,
early warning and information systems) and, ultimately, the because the drought event is overlying a society that differs from
formulation of drought preparedness plans and drought policies. the one that existed during a prior drought event.
It is difficult for emergency managers that are tasked with the All types of drought originate from a deficiency of precipitation
assignment of responding to drought to deal with the impacts (Wilhite and Glantz, 1985), although other factors such as high
because droughts often have large spatial coverage in comparison winds, high temperatures, and low relative humidity may exacer-
to floods, tropical storms, earthquakes, and other natural hazards bate the drought's severity. When this precipitation deficiency
and impacts vary by type and magnitude within the drought- spans an extended period of time (i.e., meteorological drought), its
affected area because of different economic, social, and environ- existence is defined initially in terms of these natural character-
mental system vulnerabilities. istics. However, the other common drought types (i.e., agricultural,
Drought is a temporary aberration, unlike aridity, which is a hydrological, and socioeconomic) place greater emphasis on
permanent feature of the climate. Seasonal aridity (i.e., a well- human or social aspects of drought and the management of
defined dry season) also needs to be distinguished from drought. natural resources, highlighting the interaction or interplay
There is considerable confusion among scientists and policy makers between the natural characteristics of the event and human
on the differentiation of these terms. For example, Pessoa (1987) activities that depend on precipitation to provide adequate water
presented a map illustrating the frequency of drought in Northeast supplies to meet societal and environmental demands (Fig. 1).
Brazil in his discussion of the impacts of and governmental response For example, agricultural drought is defined more commonly by
to drought. For a significant portion of the Northeast region, he the availability of soil water to support crop and forage growth
indicated that drought occurred between 81 and 100% of the time. than by the departure of normal precipitation over some specified
Much of this region is arid and drought is an inevitable feature of its period of time.
6 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13

result can be that demand exceeds supply even in years of normal

precipitation. This can result in a situation of human-induced
drought that is apart from the drought types previously discussed,
a phenomenon commonly known as water scarcity.
Drought is also related to the timing (i.e., principal season of
occurrence, delays in the start of the rainy season, occurrence of
rains in relation to principal crop growth stages) and the effec-
tiveness of the rains (i.e., rainfall intensity, number of rainfall
events). Thus, each drought event is unique in its climatic
characteristics, spatial extent, and impacts (i.e., no two droughts
are identical). The area affected by drought is rarely static during
the course of the event. As drought emerges and intensifies, its
core area or epicenter shifts and its spatial extent expands and
contracts throughout the duration of the event. A comprehensive
drought early warning and information delivery system is critical
for tracking these changes in spatial coverage and severity. As has
been noted, (Monnik, 2000; Pulwarty and Verdin, 2013) the main
constraints on early warning information system implementation
include:

 Lack of a national and regional drought policy framework;

Fig. 1. Drought types, causal factors and their usual sequence of occurrence.  Limited coordination institutions that provide different types of
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center. drought early warning, risk management and risk reduction,
that results from a national policy; and
Hydrological drought is even further removed from the defi-  Inadequate social impact indicators to form part of a compre-
ciency of precipitation since it is normally defined in terms of the hensive early warning system and inform policy response.
departure of surface and subsurface water supplies from some
average condition at various points in time. Like agricultural
drought, there is not a direct relationship between precipitation 2.1. Characterizing drought and its severity
amounts and the status of surface and subsurface water supplies
in lakes, reservoirs, aquifers, and streams because these compo- Droughts differ from one another in three essential character-
nents of the hydrological system are used for multiple and istics: intensity, duration, and spatial coverage. Intensity refers to
competing purposes (e.g., irrigation, recreation, tourism, flood the degree of the precipitation shortfall and/or the severity of
control, hydroelectric power production, domestic water supply, impacts associated with the shortfall. It is generally measured by
protection of endangered species, and environmental and ecosys- the departure of some climatic parameter (e.g., precipitation),
tem preservation). There is also considerable time lag between indicator (e.g., reservoir levels) or index (e.g., Standardized Pre-
departures of precipitation and when these deficiencies become cipitation Index) from normal and is closely linked to duration in
evident in these components of the hydrologic system. Recovery of the determination of impact. Another distinguishing feature of
these components is also slow because of long recharge periods drought is its duration. Droughts usually require a minimum of
for surface and subsurface water supplies. In areas where the two to three months to become established but then can continue
primary source of water is from snowpack, such as in the western for months or years. The magnitude of drought impacts is closely
United States, the determination of drought severity is further related to the timing of the onset of the precipitation shortage,
complicated by infrastructures, institutional arrangements, and its intensity, and the duration of the event.
legal constraints. Droughts also differ in terms of their spatial characteristics.
Socioeconomic drought differs markedly from the other types The areas affected by severe drought evolve gradually, and regions
because it associates the supply and demand of some economic of maximum intensity (i.e., epicenter) shift from season to season.
good or service with elements of meteorological, agricultural, and From a planning perspective, the spatial characteristics of drought
hydrological drought. Socioeconomic drought is associated directly have serious implications. Nations should determine the prob-
with the supply of some commodity or economic good (e.g., water, ability that drought may simultaneously affect all or several major
hay, hydroelectric power) that is dependent on precipitation. crop-producing regions or river basins within their borders and
Increases in population can substantially alter the demand for develop contingencies if such an event were to occur. Likewise, it
these economic goods over time. This concept of drought supports is important for governments to calculate the chances of a regional
the strong symbiosis between drought and its impacts on human drought simultaneously affecting agricultural productivity and
activities. Thus, the magnitude of drought impacts could increase water supplies in their country as well as adjacent or nearby
because of a change in the frequency of meteorological drought, a nations on whom they are dependent for food supplies. A drought
change in societal vulnerability to water shortages, or both. policy and preparedness plan that depends on the importation of
The interplay between drought and human activities raises a food from neighboring countries may not be viable if a regional-
serious question with regard to our attempts to define it in a scale drought occurs.
meaningful way. It was previously stated that drought results from
a deficiency of precipitation from expected or “normal” over a
season or longer period of time that results in insufficient water to 3. The challenge of drought early warning and information
meet the demands of human activities and the environment. systems
Conceptually, this definition assumes that the demands of human
activities are in balance or harmony with the availability of water Early warning systems (EWS) aim to reduce vulnerability and
supplies during periods of normal or mean precipitation. If improve response capacities of people at risk. Governments
development demands exceed the supply of water available, the maintain EWS to warn their citizens and themselves about
 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13 7

impending hazards, resulting for example, from health, geologic or and huge storms like Tropical Cyclone Nargis and Hurricane
climate and weather-related drivers. Seasonality already provides Katrina. Exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards is increas-
decision makers with clear indications of regions that are poten- ing as more people and physical assets are located in areas of
tially at risk. Decision-making quality depends in part on the high risk.
information available and the manner in which this information According to the data provided by the Centre for Research on
is processed by individuals, groups and systems (ICSU, 2008). the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), during the decade 2001–
As noted by Pulwarty (2007), the timing and form of climatic 2010, more than 370,000 people died as a result of extreme
information inputs (including forecasts and projections), and weather and climate conditions, including heat waves, cold spells,
access to trusted guidance and capability to interpret and imple- drought, storms, and floods. This was 20% higher than 1991–2000
ment the information and projections in decision-making pro- (CCSP, 2008).
cesses, are as important to individual users as improvements in Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard
prediction skill. owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. The decade
Numerous natural indicators of drought should be monitored 2001–2010 saw droughts occur in all parts of the world. Some
routinely to determine drought onset, end, and spatial character- of the highest-impact and long-term droughts struck Australia
istics. Severity must also be evaluated continuously on frequent (in 2002 and other years), East Africa (2004 and 2005, resulting in
time steps. Although droughts originate from a deficiency of widespread loss of life), and the Amazon Basin (2010) with
precipitation, it is inadequate to rely only on this climatic element negative environmental impacts (Sivakumar, 2013). In the Sahel,
to assess severity and resultant impacts. Effective drought early the 2012 cereal crop was 26% lower than the 2011 crop. More than
warning systems must integrate precipitation data with other data 10 million people remain food insecure in the region and 1.4 mil-
such as streamflow, snowpack, ground water levels, reservoir and lion children are at risk of acute malnutrition. A prolonged dry
lake levels, and soil moisture in order to assess drought and water season has resulted in widespread crop failure in 2013 across
supply conditions. For most locations, drought forecasting and Namibia, and the Namibian government estimates that the 2013
early warning is still a linear process based on a “sender–receiver” harvest will produce 42% less than the 2012 harvest. An estimated
model of risk communication. It is more effective to design 780,000 people – approximately one third of Namibia's entire
drought early warning and information systems (DEWIS) that rely population – are now classified as food insecure. Of these, 330,000
on multiple physical indicators and climatic indices in combina- people are in need of urgent support, according to the government
tion with social indicators. Effective DEWIS are an integral part of of Namibia, which declared a state of emergency on 17 May 2013.
efforts worldwide to improve drought management and prepared- Severe drought in 2013 plagued northeast Brazil, where some
ness and must be the foundation of mitigation plans and a national areas have received no rain in more than a year and over 400,000
drought policy. households faced freshwater shortages.
Drought by itself does not trigger an emergency. Whether it Data from Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurance firm,
becomes an emergency or disaster depends on its impact on local shows a dramatic increase in the number of natural catastrophes
communities and the environment. And that, in turn, depends on attributable to meteorological and hydrological events worldwide
the vulnerability of people and the environment to such a “shock”. over the period from 1980 to 2012, while geophysical events have
Drought results in substantial impacts in both developing and remained relatively constant over that same time period (Hoppe,
developed countries, although the characteristics of these impacts 2013). The number of natural catastrophes resulting from meteor-
differ considerably. The ability to cope with drought also varies ological events increased from approximately 180 in 1980 to more
considerably from country to country and from one region, than 400 in 2012. Hydrological events have followed a similar
community, or population group to another. Assessments of trend, increasing from approximately 100 in 1980 to more than
drought early warning and information systems (DEWIS) illustrate 300 in 2012. The data show a considerable degree of variability
that the most successful: (1) integrate social vulnerability indica- during this time period, but the trend in meteorological and
tors with physical variables across timescales; (2) embrace risk hydrological events reflects the current science of climate change
communication as an interactive social process and; (3) support regarding projections for an increased frequency of extreme
governance of a collaborative framework for early warning across climate events, including drought. More effective risk-based
spatial scales (Pulwarty and Verdin, 2013). Monitoring coping reduction policies and measures must be developed if govern-
responses, that is the sequential or hierarchical strategies that ments are to reduce the impacts associated with droughts and
households use to fend off hunger and preserve their productive other extreme climatic events in the future.
assets, is critical but still in its infancy primarily because local
observers are needed to determine the meaning of scarcity 4.1. Defining drought policy
responses. Thus, the governance context in which DEWIS are
embedded is key. As a beginning point in the discussion of national drought
policy, it is important to identify the various types of drought
policies that are available and have been utilized for drought
4. Changing climate, changing vulnerabilities: Building society management. The approach most often followed by both devel-
resilience through national drought policies oping and developed nations is post-impact government (or
nongovernment) interventions. These interventions are normally
Natural disasters are a consequence of the interactions between relief measures in the form of emergency assistance programs
the weather and climate extremes and the vulnerability of human aimed at providing money or other specific types of assistance
and natural ecosystems to such extremes. Research shows that the (e.g., livestock feed, water, food) to the victims (or those experien-
frequency and magnitude of extreme events is on the rise. cing the most severe impacts) of the drought. This reactive approach
According to WMO (2013b), the world experienced unprecedented is seriously flawed from the perspective of vulnerability reduction
high-impact climate extremes during the 2001–2010 decade, since the recipients of this assistance are not expected to change
which was the warmest since the start of modern measurements behaviors or resource management practices as a condition of the
in 1850. The decade ending in 2010 was an unprecedented era of assistance. Although providing a safety net for those people or
climate extremes, as evidenced by heat waves in Europe and sectors most vulnerable to drought is a high priority, the challenge is
Russia, droughts in the Amazon Basin, Australia, and East Africa, to do it in a manner that reinforces the tenets of a drought risk
8 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13

reduction strategy. For example, livestock producers that do not other organizations must provide some form of emergency relief
maintain adequate on-farm storage of feed for livestock as a drought to those sectors most affected. It is critically important, as a part of
management strategy will be those that first experience the impacts a drought risk reduction policy, for this assistance to be provided
of extended precipitation shortfalls. These producers will be the first in a form that does not run counter to the goals and objectives of
that turn to the government or other organizations for assistance in the national drought policy, which would include a strong
order to maintain herds until the drought is over and feedstocks emphasis on the sustainability of the natural resource base.
return to adequate levels. This reliance on the government for relief The development and implementation of a drought policy is
is contrary to the philosophy of encouraging self-reliance through intended to alter a nation's approach to drought management.
producer investment in creating improved coping capacity. Govern- Over the past decade, drought policy and preparedness has
ment assistance or incentives that encourage these investments received increasing attention from governments, international
would be a philosophical change in how governments respond and and regional organizations, and nongovernmental organizations.
would promote a change in the expectations of livestock producers The organization of the HMNDP is a culmination of this increasing
as to the role of government in these response efforts. The more awareness and concern by many organizations, agencies, and
traditional approach of providing relief is also flawed in terms of the governments. Simply stated, a national drought policy should
timing of assistance being provided. It often takes weeks or months establish a clear set of principles or operating guidelines to govern
for assistance to be received, at times well beyond the window of the management of drought and its impacts. The policy should be
when the relief would be of greatest value in addressing the impacts consistent and equitable for all regions, population groups, and
of drought. economic sectors and consistent with the goals of sustainable
A second type of drought policy approach is the development development. The overriding principle of drought policy should be
of pre-impact government programs that are intended to reduce an emphasis on risk management through the application of
vulnerability and impacts. In the natural hazards field, these types preparedness and mitigation measures (Wilhite et al., 2005a).
of programs or measures are commonly referred to as mitigation The policy must reflect regional differences in drought character-
measures. Mitigation in the context of natural hazards is different istics, vulnerability, and impacts. The goal of the policy is to reduce
from mitigation in the context of climate change, where the focus risk by developing better awareness and understanding of the
is on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Drought mitiga- drought hazard and the underlying causes of societal vulnerability.
tion measures are numerous but appear to be less obvious to many As stated previously, the principles of risk management can be
people, including policy makers, when associated with drought promoted by encouraging the improvement and application of
since impacts are generally nonstructural. Mitigation measures for seasonal and shorter-term forecasts, developing integrated mon-
many other natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, floods, hurricanes) itoring and drought early warning systems and associated infor-
are often largely structural. Drought mitigation measures would mation delivery systems, developing preparedness plans at various
include establishing comprehensive early warning and informa- levels of government, adopting mitigation actions and programs,
tion systems, improving seasonal forecasts, increasing emphasis creating a safety net of emergency response programs that ensure
on water conservation (demand reduction), increasing or aug- timely and targeted relief, and providing an organizational struc-
menting water supplies through greater utilization of ground ture that enhances coordination within and between levels of
water resources, constructing reservoirs, interconnecting water government and with stakeholders.
supplies between neighboring communities, drought planning, As vulnerability to drought has increased globally, greater
and awareness building and education. A more exhaustive list of attention has been directed to reducing risks associated with its
these measures was compiled through a survey of states and other occurrence through the introduction of planning to improve
entities in the United States following several drought episodes in operational capabilities (i.e., climate and water supply monitoring,
the late 1980s and early 1990s (Wilhite and Rhodes, 1993). building institutional capacity) and mitigation measures that are
Insurance programs, currently available in many countries, would aimed at reducing drought impacts. This change in emphasis is
also fall into this category of policy types. long overdue. Typically, when a natural hazard event and resultant
The final type of policy response is the development and disaster has occurred, governments and donors have followed
implementation of preparedness plans and policies, which would with impact assessment, response, recovery, and reconstruction
include organizational frameworks and operational arrangements activities to return the region or locality to a pre-disaster state.
developed in advance of drought and maintained between Historically, little attention has been given to preparedness,
drought episodes by government or other entities. This approach mitigation, and prediction/early warning actions (i.e., risk manage-
represents an attempt to create greater institutional capacity ment) that could reduce future impacts and lessen the need for
focused on improved coordination and collaboration within and government intervention in the future. Because of this emphasis
between levels of government and with stakeholders in the on crisis management, society has generally moved from one
plethora of private organizations with a vested interest in drought disaster to another with little, if any, reduction in risk. This concept
management (i.e., communities, natural resource districts or is expressed in the Cycle of Disaster Management (Fig. 2). If more
managers, utilities, agribusiness, farm organizations, and others). emphasis is placed on the risk reduction portions of this cycle, the
impacts associated with drought and other disasters, and thus the
4.2. Principle elements of a drought risk reduction policy framework need for government interventions in the form of emergency relief
measures, will be reduced.
Drought policy options should be provided in each of four
principle areas: (1) risk and early warning, including vulnerability
analysis, impact assessment, and communication; (2) mitigation 4.3. Drought policy objectives
and preparedness, including the application of effective and
affordable practices; (3) awareness and education, including a The objectives associated with a national drought policy will, of
well-informed public and a participatory process; and (4) policy course, vary from nation to nation but, in principle, will likely
governance, including political commitment and responsibilities reflect some common themes. These objectives would likely
(UNISDR, 2009). Another important component of this framework
is the inclusion of policy options for emergency response and  Encourage vulnerable economic sectors and population groups
relief. In all cases, when severe drought occurs, governments and to adopt self-reliant measures that promote risk management;
 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13 9

Agriculture. Over the past 10 years, there has been an impressive

shift of emphasis toward mitigation planning by many states.
Currently, 47 of the 50 U.S. states have drought plans, and 11 of
these states are placing an ever-increasing emphasis on mitigation
as a primary means of reducing societal vulnerability (National
Drought Mitigation Center, 2013). Interestingly, a greater emphasis
on mitigation planning has necessarily resulted in increased
pressure for scientists to provide more timely information in the
form of better seasonal forecasts, improved decision support tools,
and higher resolution analysis for natural resource managers,
government officials, and policy makers.
One of the tools that has been instrumental in providing
guidance in the development of drought preparedness plans in
the United States is a 10-step planning process originally proposed
in 1991 (Wilhite, 1991) and subsequently modified on numerous
occasions to incorporate a greater emphasis on mitigation in the
planning process (Wilhite et al., 2000, 2005b). These steps are
listed in Fig. 3.
In brief, Steps 1–4 of the 10-step planning process focus on
making sure the right people are brought together, have a clear
understanding of the process, know what the drought prepared-
Fig. 2. Cycle of disaster management.
ness plan must accomplish, and are supplied with adequate data
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.
to make fair and equitable decisions when formulating and
writing the actual drought plan. Step 5 describes the process of
 Promote sustainable use of the agricultural and natural resource developing an organizational structure or framework for comple-
base; and tion of the tasks necessary to prepare the plan. The plan should be
 Facilitate early recovery from drought through actions consis- viewed as a process, rather than a discrete event that produces a
tent with national drought policy objectives. static document. A risk assessment is undertaken in conjunction
with this step in order to construct a vulnerability profile for key
The goals or tenets of national drought policy, as stated in the economic sectors, population groups, regions, and communities.
documents prepared leading up to the high-level meeting on Steps 6 and 7 detail the need for ongoing research and coordina-
national drought policy (World Meteorological Organization, tion between scientists and policy makers. Steps 8 and 9 stress the
2013a), were: importance of promoting and testing the plan before drought
occurs. Finally, Step 10 emphasizes revising the plan to keep it
 Proactive mitigation and planning measures, risk management, current and making an evaluation of the plan's effectiveness in the
public outreach, and resource stewardship; post-drought period. Although the steps are sequential, many of
 Greater collaboration to enhance the national/regional/global these tasks are addressed simultaneously under the leadership of a
observation networks and information delivery systems to drought task force and its complement of committees and working
improve public understanding of, and preparedness for, drought; groups. These steps, and the tasks included in each, provide a
 Incorporation of comprehensive governmental and private insur- “checklist” that should be considered and may be completed as
ance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans; part of the planning process.
 Recognition of a safety net of emergency relief based on sound The organizational structure proposed in support of this 10-
stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse step planning process is shown in Fig. 4. This structure includes
levels; and the formation of a drought task force to coordinate the drought
 Coordination of drought programs and response efforts in an planning process, both during the development stage and the
effective, efficient and customer-oriented manner. implementation stage, and a monitoring committee and a risk
assessment committee. This structure has worked effectively in
Drought preparedness or mitigation planning, as an integral most states, although it has been modified or adapted to the
part of drought policy, can take many forms and approaches. It is specific needs of each of the states with drought plans.
important to note that planning must occur on multiple govern- The description of the 10-step process below is summarized
ment levels from local to national, and the objectives of these from Wilhite et al. (2005b), which is available on the website of
policies at the local, state, or regional levels must reflect the goals
of national drought policies. Stakeholders must be engaged at all
levels. Drought planning should also occur at the river basin scale,
so the result may be overlapping authorities with political
jurisdictions.
Drought planning can be defined as actions taken by individual
citizens, industry, government, and others before drought occurs
with the purpose of reducing or mitigating impacts and conflicts
arising from drought. It can take the following forms: response
planning or mitigation planning. In the United States, where
drought planning at the state level has become widespread over
the past 25 years, most state drought plans first began as response
plans—i.e., reactive plans that implemented actions when drought
emerged, often with the goal of formulating requests for assistance Fig. 3. 10-Step drought planning process.
from the federal government, most often the U.S. Department of Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.
10 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13

 Historical response to drought;

 Most vulnerable economic, social, and environmental sectors;
 Role of the plan in resolving conflict between water users and
other vulnerable groups during periods of shortage;
 Current trends (e.g., land and water use, population growth)
that may increase/vulnerability and conflicts in the future;
 Resources (human and economic) that the government is
willing to commit to the planning process;
 Legal and social implications of the plan; and
 Principal environmental concerns caused by drought.

A generic statement of purpose for a plan is to reduce the

impacts of drought by identifying principal activities, groups, or
regions most at risk and developing mitigation actions and
programs that reduce these vulnerabilities. The plan is directed
at providing governments with an effective and systematic means
of assessing drought conditions, developing mitigation actions and
programs to reduce risk in advance of drought, and developing
Fig. 4. Organizational structure or framework for drought preparedness plans. response options or safety nets that minimize economic stress,
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.
environmental losses, and social hardships during drought.
The task force should then identify the specific objectives that
the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (http://drought. support the purpose of the plan. Drought plan objectives will vary
unl.edu/portals/0/docs/10StepProcess.pdf.) within and between countries and should reflect the unique
physical, environmental, socioeconomic, and political characteris-
4.3.1. Step 1: Appoint a drought task force tics of the region in question. For a provincial, state, or regional
A key political leader initiates the drought planning process plan, objectives that should be considered include the following:
through appointment of a drought task force. Depending on the
level of government developing the plan, this could be the
 Collect and analyze drought-related information in a timely
president or prime minister, a provincial or state governor, or a and systematic manner.
mayor. The task force has two purposes. First, the task force
 Establish criteria for declaring drought emergencies and trig-
supervises and coordinates development of the plan. Second, after gering various mitigation and response activities.
the plan is developed and during times of drought when the plan
 Provide an organizational structure and delivery system
is activated, the task force coordinates actions, implements miti- that assures information flow between and within levels of
gation and response programs, and makes policy recommenda- government.
tions to the governor or other appropriate political leader.
 Define the duties and responsibilities of all agencies with
The task force should reflect the multidisciplinary nature of respect to drought.
drought and its impacts, and it should include appropriate
 Maintain a current inventory of government programs used in
representatives of government agencies (provincial, federal) and assessing and responding to drought emergencies.
universities where appropriate expertise is available. For provinces
 Identify drought-prone areas of the state/region/nation and
or states, the governor or appropriate political official should have vulnerable economic sectors, individuals, or environments.
a representative on the task force. Environmental and public
 Identify mitigation actions that can be taken to address
interest groups and others from the private sector can be included vulnerabilities and reduce drought impacts.
on the task force (see Step 3), as appropriate. These groups would
 Provide a mechanism to ensure timely and accurate assessment
be involved to a considerable extent in the activities of the of drought's impacts on agriculture, industry, municipalities,
working groups associated with the Risk Assessment Committee wildlife, tourism and recreation, health, and other areas.
discussed in Step 5. The actual makeup of this task force would
 Keep the public informed of current conditions and response
vary considerably depending on the principal economic and other actions by providing accurate, timely information to media in
sectors affected, the political infrastructure, and other factors. The print and electronic form (e.g., via TV, radio, and the Internet).
task force should include a public information official who is
 Establish and pursue a strategy to remove obstacles to the
familiar with local media's needs and preferences, and a public equitable allocation of water during shortages and establish
participation practitioner who can help establish a process that requirements or provide incentives to encourage water
includes and accommodates all stakeholders or interest groups. conservation.
 Establish a set of procedures to continually evaluate and
exercise the plan and periodically revise the plan so it will stay
4.3.2. Step 2: State the purpose and objectives of the drought responsive to the needs of the state or region.
mitigation plan
As its first official action, the drought task force should state the
general purpose for the drought preparedness plan. Government
officials should consider many questions as they define the 4.3.3. Step 3: Seek stakeholder participation and resolve conflict
purpose of the plan, such as the following: Social, economic, and environmental values often clash as
competition for scarce water resources intensifies. Therefore, task
 Purpose and role of government in drought mitigation and force members must identify all citizen groups (stakeholders) that
response efforts; have a stake in drought planning and their interests. These groups
 Scope of the plan; must be involved early and continuously for fair representation
 Most drought-prone areas of the state/nation; and effective drought management and planning. Discussing
 Historical impacts of drought; concerns early in the process gives participants a chance to
 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13 11

develop an understanding of each other's viewpoints, and to these issues early in the planning process so they can provide
generate collaborative solutions. Although the level of involve- more direction to the committees and working groups that will be
ment of these groups will vary notably from location to location, developed under Step 5 of the planning process.
the power of public interest groups in policy making is consider-
able. In fact, these groups are likely to impede progress in the
4.3.5. Step 5: Prepare and write drought plan
development of plans if they are not included in the process. The
This step describes the process of establishing relevant com-
task force should also protect the interests of stakeholders who
mittees to develop and write the drought preparedness plan. The
may lack the financial resources to serve as their own advocates.
plan should have three primary components: monitoring, early
One way to facilitate public participation is to establish a citizen's
warning and information delivery, and prediction; risk and impact
advisory council as a permanent feature of the drought plan, to
assessment; and mitigation and response. It is recommended that
help the task force keep information flowing and resolve conflicts
a committee be established to focus on the first two of these
between stakeholders.
needs; the drought task force can in most instances carry out the
State or provincial governments need to consider if district or
mitigation and response function. The suggested organizational
regional advisory councils need to be established. These councils
structure for the plan is illustrated in Fig. 4.
could bring neighbors together to discuss their water use issues
These committees will have their own tasks and goals, but
and problems and seek collaborative solutions. At the provincial
well-established communication and information flow between
level, representatives of each district council should be included in
committees and the task force is a necessity to ensure effective
the membership of the provincial citizens' advisory council to
planning. More detail on the composition of these committees and
represent the interests and values of their constituencies. The
their focus is included in Wilhite et al. (2005a) and on the NDMC's
provincial citizens' advisory council can then offer recommenda-
website: http://drought.unl.edu/portals/0/docs/10StepProcess.pdf
tions and direct concerns to the task force as well as respond to
The purpose of the risk assessment process is to identify those
requests for situation reports and updates.
sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought,
the most likely impacts, and appropriate mitigation actions that
will reduce those impacts. The final outcome of this risk assess-
4.3.4. Step 4: Inventory resources and identify groups at risk
ment process is the development of a vulnerability profile that
An inventory of natural, biological, and human resources,
establishes who and what is at risk and why. The steps in this
including the identification of constraints that may impede the
process include the following:
planning process, may need to be initiated by the task force.
In many cases, much information already exists about natural and
1. Identify impacts of recent and historical droughts.
biological resources through various provincial and federal/
2. Identify drought impact trends.
national agencies. It is important to determine the vulnerability
3. Prioritize impacts.
of these resources to periods of water shortage that result from
4. Identify mitigation actions that could reduce short- and long-
drought. The most obvious natural resource of importance is
term impacts.
water; where it is located, how accessible is it, of what quality is
5. Identify triggers to phase in and phase out actions during
it? Biological resources refer to the quantity and quality of grass-
drought onset and termination.
lands/rangelands, forests, wildlife, and so forth. Human resources
6. Identify agencies and organizations to develop and implement
include the labor needed to develop water resources, lay pipeline,
actions.
haul water and forage for livestock, process citizen complaints,
provide technical assistance, and direct citizens to available
services. A checklist of historical, current, and potential drought impacts
The task force must also identify constraints to the planning is available as a guide to government entities involved in this plan
process and to the activation of the various elements of the plan as development process on the following web link:http://drought.
drought conditions develop. These constraints may be physical, unl.edu/portals/0/docs/10StepProcess.pdf
financial, legal, or political. The costs associated with plan devel-
opment must be weighed against the losses that will likely result if
4.3.6. Step 6: Identify research needs and fill institutional gaps
no plan is in place. The purpose of a drought plan is to reduce risk
As research needs and gaps in institutional responsibility
and, therefore, economic, social, and environmental impacts. Legal
become apparent during drought planning, the drought task force
constraints can include water rights, existing public trust laws,
should compile a list of those deficiencies and recommend
requirements for public water suppliers, liability issues, and
possible remedies to the appropriate person or government body.
so forth.
Step 6 should be carried out concurrently with Steps 4 and 5.
In drought planning, making the transition from crisis to risk
For example, the Monitoring Committee may recommend estab-
management is difficult because, historically, little has been done
lishing an automated weather station network or networking
to understand and address the risks associated with drought.
existing automated weather stations. Another recommendation
To solve this problem, areas of high risk should be identified, as
may be to initiate research on the development of a climate or
should actions that can be taken before a drought occurs to reduce
water supply index to help monitor water supplies and trigger
those risks. Risk is defined by both the exposure of a location to
specific actions by government.
the drought hazard and the vulnerability of that location to
periods of drought-induced water shortages (Blaikie et al., 1994).
Drought is a natural event; it is important to define the exposure 4.3.7. Step 7: Integrate science and policy
(i.e., frequency of drought of various intensities and durations) of An essential aspect of the planning process is integrating the
various parts of the region to the drought hazard. Some areas are science and policy of drought management. The policy maker's
likely to be more at risk than others. Vulnerability, on the other understanding of the scientific issues and technical constraints
hand, is affected by social factors such as population growth and involved in addressing problems associated with drought is often
migration trends, urbanization, changes in land use, government limited. Likewise, scientists generally have a poor understanding
policies, water use trends, diversity of economic base, cultural of existing policy constraints for responding to the impacts of
composition, and so forth. The drought task force should address drought. In many cases, communication and understanding
12 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13

between the science and policy communities must be enhanced if It may be useful to refresh people's memories ahead of time on
the planning process is to be successful. circumstances that would lead to water use restrictions.
Good communication is required between the two groups in During drought, the task force should work with public informa-
order to distinguish what is feasible from what is not achievable tion professionals to keep the public well informed of the current
for a broad range of science and policy issues. Integration of status of water supplies, whether conditions are approaching
science and policy during the planning process will also be useful “trigger points” that will lead to requests for voluntary or mandatory
in setting research priorities and synthesizing current understand- use restrictions, and how victims of drought can access assistance.
ing. The drought task force should consider various alternatives All pertinent information should also be available on the drought
to bring these groups together and maintain a strong working task force's website so that the public can get information directly
relationship. from the task force without having to rely on mass media.
Communication between researchers and practitioners, while
necessary, is not sufficient. Current crisis-driven drought manage-
ment approaches create significant impediments to proactive 4.3.9. Step 9: Develop education programs
planning, and create institutional and behavioral barriers to A broad-based education program to raise awareness of short-
change. The difficult challenge of creating a collaborative frame- and long-term water supply issues will help ensure that people
work and implementing adaptive strategies at scales ranging from know how to respond to drought when it occurs and that drought
local communities to watersheds to hydrologic basins spanning planning does not lose ground during non-drought years. It would
multiple states requires a broad range of science policy responses. be useful to tailor information to the needs of specific groups (e.g.,
Such approaches yield quantitative comparisons of risks from the elementary and secondary education, small business, industry,
range of plausible future scenarios and allow for a priori evalua- homeowners, and utilities). The drought task force or participating
tion of potential impacts of management decisions. In this context agencies should consider developing presentations and educa-
an effective risk management approach would include a timely tional materials for events such as a water awareness week,
and user-oriented early warning system and a focal point for community observations of Earth Day, relevant trade shows,
dialogue between leadership and those affected. The National specialized workshops, and other gatherings that focus on natural
Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is a major step in resource stewardship or management.
this direction (NIDIS, 2007). Proactive processes and outcomes rely
on information, infrastructure and information supported by:
4.3.10. Step 10: Evaluate and revise drought mitigation plan
 Leadership and partnerships that ensure the successful imple- The final step in the planning process is to create a detailed set
mentation of an integrated national drought monitoring and of procedures to ensure adequate plan evaluation. Periodic testing,
forecasting system; and evaluation, and updating of the drought plan are essential to keep
 A framework for capacity development and education for those the plan responsive to the needs of the state and its citizens.
affected by drought and for those who study drought, on how To maximize the effectiveness of the system, two modes of evaluation
must be in place.
and why droughts occur, how droughts impact human and
natural systems, and what actions can be undertaken to mitigate
drought impacts. 4.3.10.1. Ongoing evaluation. An ongoing or operational evaluation
keeps track of how societal changes such as new technology, new
research, new laws, and changes in political leadership may affect
Partnering with local communities on drought risk manage-
drought risk and the operational aspects of the drought plan.
ment and involving them at all stages in mitigation of drought
Drought risk may be evaluated quite frequently while the overall
impacts is vital and also resource-intensive.
drought plan may be evaluated and revised less often. An evaluation
under simulated drought conditions (i.e., drought exercise) is
4.3.8. Step 8: Publicize the drought mitigation plan, build public recommended before the drought plan is implemented and perio-
awareness and consensus dically thereafter. Drought planning is a process, not a discrete event.
If there has been good communication with the public through-
out the process of establishing a drought plan, citizens may 4.3.10.2. Post-drought evaluation. A post-drought evaluation, or
already have better-than-normal awareness of drought and audit, documents and analyzes the assessment and response
drought planning by the time the plan is actually written. Themes actions of government, nongovernmental organizations, and
to emphasize in writing news stories during and after the drought others, and provides for a mechanism to implement recomm-
planning process could include: endations for improving the system. Without post-drought
evaluations, it is difficult to learn from past successes and
 How the drought plan is expected to relieve impacts of drought mistakes, as institutional memory fades.
in both the short and long term. Stories can focus on the human Post-drought evaluations should include an analysis of the
dimensions of drought, such as how it affects a farm family; climatic and environmental aspects of the drought; its economic
on its environmental consequences, such as reduced wildlife and social consequences; the extent to which pre-drought plan-
habitat; and on its economic effects, such as the costs to a ning was useful in mitigating impacts, in facilitating relief or
particular industry or to the overall economy. assistance to stricken areas, and in post-recovery; and any other
 What changes people might be asked to make in response to weaknesses or problems caused by or not covered by the plan.
different degrees of drought, such as restricted lawn watering Attention must also be directed to situations in which drought-
and car washing, or not irrigating certain crops at certain times. coping mechanisms worked and where societies exhibited resi-
lience; evaluations should not focus only on those situations in
In subsequent years, it may be useful to do “drought plan which coping mechanisms failed. Evaluations of previous
refresher” news releases at the beginning of the most drought- responses to severe drought are also a good planning aid.
sensitive season or as droughts are emerging, letting people know To ensure an unbiased appraisal, governments may wish to
whether there is pressure on water supplies and reminding them place the responsibility for evaluating drought and societal
of the plan's existence, history, and any associated success stories. response to it in the hands of nongovernmental organizations
 D.A. Wilhite et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 4–13 13

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