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Overview of Demographic
Concepts and Methods
United Nations Statistics Division

Outline
1. What is demography
2. Meaning of “population”
3. Population change and components of population growth
4. Demographic transition
5. Data sources
6. Demographic measurements
7. Direct and indirect techniques
United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, 1–12 December 2014
What is demography?
Literally translated from the Greek, 'demography' means 'description
of the people’
One definition among many:

“Demography is the study of the size, territorial distribution, and
composition of population, changes therein, and the components of
such changes, which may be identified as natality, mortality, territorial
movement (migration), and social mobility (change of status).”
(Duncan & Hauser 1972)
>>The study of population processes

Meaning of “population”
1. Collection of persons alive at a specified point in time who meet certain
criteria
Examples:
- The “population of India on April 1, 1995,"
- The "population of American black females in the Northeast on June 1, 1900”
2. Kind of collectivity that persists through time even though its members
are continuously changing through attrition and accession. Thus, "the
population of India" may refer to the aggregate of persons who have
ever been alive in the area we define as India and possibly even to
those yet to be born there. The collectivity persists even though a
virtually complete turnover of its members occurs at least once each
century.
Source: Preston et al. (2001)
Demographic analysis
 Focuses on this enduring collectivity >> studying changes in its size,
growth rates, and composition
 Emphasis is on understanding aggregate processes, but demography
is also attentive to the implications of those processes for individuals
 Many of the indexes used in demography (life expectancy at birth,
total fertility rate) translate aggregate-level processes into statements
about the demographic circumstances faced by an average or
randomly-chosen individual
Source: Preston et al. (2001: 1-2)

World population growth through history
Source: McFalls 2007: 25 United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
World population growth through history
World population When? How long?

1 billion 1800 All of human history
2 billion 1930 130 years
… … …
World population growth 1950-2050
10
9
8
7
Billion people
6
5
Less Developed Regions
4
3
2
1
More Developed Regions
0
Year
Source: UNPD (2013) United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
World population clock, 2014
More developed Less developed

World
countries countries
Population 7,238,184,000 1,248,958,000 5,989,225,000
Natural increase per

Year 86,582,000 1,466,000 85,115,000
Month 7,215,167 122,167 7,092,917
Week 1,665,038 28,192 1,636,827
Day 237,211 4,016 233,192
Hour 9,884 167 9,716
Minute 165 3 162
Second 2.7 0.0 2.7
Source: Haub & Kaneda (2014) United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
How to understand these changes?
What are the components of population growth?

Components of population growth
Population Population Natural increase Net migration

at time t at time 0 (Births – Deaths) (Immigration – Emigration)
(arrivals – departures)

Population growth can occur only if:
1. Natural increase is positive
B > D ⇒ B increases or D declines
and/or
2. Net migration is positive
I > E ⇒ I increases or E declines
In history, the first case is more important to understand the impressive

population growth
>> Demographic transition
Demographic Transition
 One of demography’s main theoretical preoccupation in 20th century
 More a generalization from observed trends than a theory
 Descriptive and pedagogic value
 Many patterns of transition, with different timing and explanations
>> Movement of death and birth rates in a society, from a situation where
both are high (in the pre-transition stage) to one where both are low (in
the post-transition stage).
>> Transition is the interval between these two stages during which the
population increases oftentimes rapidly, as births exceed deaths.

Classic stages of demographic transition
Before the startMortality

of the DTdecline
Fertility decline At the end of the DT
life was short, birthsImproved
were living conditions
Population
andgrowth remains
Birth and
highdeath rates are
many, growth was slow health
andpractice
the at the beginning but falls
close
near
again.
0 Low population
population was young ⇒ population explosion
at the end of the stagegrowth with fluctuations
Growth rate over the demographic transition
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Adapted from Bloom et al. 2003: 31

250 years of demographic transition in Norway
40
35
30
Crude rate (p. 1000)
25
20
15
10
Crude Birth Rate
5 Crude Death Rate
0
1750
1880
1990
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
2000
Data source: Moving average computed from Rowland (2003)

Demographic transition across the globe (Data source: UNPD 2013)
50 50
WORLD More Developed Regions
40 40

Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
50 50
Less Developed Regions
40 40

(excluding least developed)
30 30
20 20
10 10
Least Developed Regions
0 0
Data source: UNPD (2013) United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
Demographic transition in Asia (Data source: UNPD 2013)
50 50
Asia Crude Birth Rate South-Eastern Asia
40 40

Crude Death Rate
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
50
Myanmar
40
30
20
10
0
Changes in age structure through the demographic transition (DT)
100+
STAGE 2: With declining mortality, the population becomes
95-99
90-94
85-89
younger because more children survive
80-84
70-75
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

100+
STAGE 3: Fertility decline reduces the proportion of children.
95-99
90-94
85-89
Successive generations become similar in size (parents = children).
80-84
70-75
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
100+
STAGE 4: With continuing fertility decline, the relative number
95-99
90-94
85-89
of children reduces and the older population becomes more
80-84
70-75
important (high life expectancy).
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Diversity of population pyramids, 3 different stages
Each component of population growth (population, births,

deaths, migration) need to be estimated from empirical data
>> Data sources

Data sources
Main sources
 Census
 Vital registration
 Sample surveys
Some other sources

 Population register
 Demographic Surveillance System (DSS)

Data sources – Census
"The total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing, and
publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and
social data pertaining to all persons in a country or in a well-
delineated part of a country at a specified time.” (United Nations 2008)
> Total process
Not sufficient to simply collect and collate information in a census, but also
analyze, publish and disseminate the data.
> Demographic, economic and social data
To collect more than just a simple headcount of the population
> Universality
To enumerate all people in a population
> Simultaneity
To produce a snapshot of the population at a point in time

 The oldest, most demanding, and most important source of
demographic information >> many demographic methods developed
for census data
 Among the most complex and massive peacetime exercises a nation
undertakes
 Requires the mapping the entire country, mobilizing and training an
army of enumerators, conducting a massive public campaign,
canvassing all households, collecting individual information,
compiling vast amounts of completed questionnaires, and analysing
and disseminating the data

 (Recommended) to be conducted once per decade
 UN Principles and Recommendations (>> 3rd revision forthcoming)
 2010 World Population and Housing Census Programme (UNSD)
 19 countries have not conducted a census (slight improvement
compared to 26 during the 2000-round)
> UNSD Population Census Datasets:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dybcensusdata.htm
> Micro samples available for 79 countries (258 censuses) at IPUMS
International (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series):
https://international.ipums.org/international/

General overview – 2010 round of censuses
Number of countries/areas that conducted, plan to conduct and did not
schedule a population and housing census in the 2010 round, by year
70
62
60
50
43
40
30 27
17 19
20 14 15 16
11 12
9
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 No
census

Enumeration used in 2010 round of censuses
Total countries Percent
Total 126 100
Face-to-face interview, paper questionnaire 94 75
Face-to-face interview, electronic questionnaire 14 11
Telephone 14 11
Self-enumeration, paper questionnaire, collected by enumerators 30 24
Self-enumeration, paper questionnaire, return by mail 18 14
Self-enumeration, internet 33 26
Register-based enumeration 18 14
Pre-existing administrative records 8 6
Other 2 2
* The sum of the categories exceeds 100% as countries were asked to provide answers as to all the methods they applied.

Data sources – Census (De facto vs. De jure)
De facto (Latin, for ‘in actual fact’)
The population is enumerated where it is found, regardless of the
respondent’s usual place of residence.
De jure (Latin for ‘in law’)
The respondent is enumerated at their usual place of residence,
regardless of where they stayed on the census date.
In highly mobile populations, or populations subject to extensive

seasonal migration (e.g. crop-pickers), De facto and De jure data may
give widely divergent results
Source: IUSSP & UNFPA (n.d.)

Advantages Disadvantages
The coverage aims to be universal The size and complexity of the exercise means that
the content and quality control efforts may be limited
Census provides sampling frame for Due to high costs, census is conducted only every
subsequent surveys and studies ten years
The census can serve as a useful tool Some delay between data collection and release of
for ‘nation-building’, by involving the results (typically, between 18 months to two years)
entire population meaning that the census only offers a snapshot of
the population at some point in the past
Census data avoids the sampling errors Risks that census being politicised – either by
that can occur with sample data groups who feel that they might be systematically
Censuses provide data for small areas, undercounted by the exercise, or by parties with a
such as districts and counties, which is vested interest in seeking to ensure that their group’s
vital for the planning of services population is found to be larger than that of other
groups
Source: IUSSP & UNFPA (n.d.) United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
Data sources – Vital registration system
 The second main source for demographers
 Collect information on individuals when (or shortly) after they
experience the vital events (birth, marriage, death, (sometimes) migration)
 In almost all developed countries, registration of births, deaths, and
marriages is compulsory
 Vital data collected are tabulated totals from individual records
 Sometimes more extensive information collected (e.g. statistics for birth
could include sex, birth weight, place of birth…)
 Despite progress, civil registration systems still deficient in many
countries
>> For example, only 60% of the 230 countries and areas register at least
90% of births occurred in the country. While for death registration, only 47%
of the countries and areas have at least 90% coverage. (UNSD 2012)
Data sources – Sample surveys
 More and more important as statistical science has developed
 Collect vital statistics where the official registration system is
inadequate or nonexistent and for intercensal period
 Collect supplementary demographic and other data, where it is not
feasible to collect the same from the population census
 Since the 1970s, coordinated demographic surveys have been
taken around the world through the World Fertility Survey (WFS),
the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the Multiple Indicator
Cluster Surveys (MICS), or other national types of survey
> DHS micro datasets available online at: www.dhsprogram.com
> MICS micro datasets available online at: http://www.childinfo.org/mics.html

Data sources – Some other sources
Population register
>> If country has a system of continuous registration it is possible to maintain
a separate card for each individual from the time of his birth (or
immigration) to his death (or emigration) and to continually update the
record by recording such additional registration data as marriage, divorce,
birth of children, etc.
Demographic Surveillance System (DSS)

>> DSS monitors demographic and health characteristics of a population
living in a well-defined geographic area. A baseline census is followed by
regular update of key demographic events (birth, death, migration,
marriage…) and heath events

Demographic measurements (rate, ratio, proportion)
Rate
The most widely used comparative measures of population change
Ideally, demographic rates show ideally the relationship between the
number of demographic events (numerator) and the population at risk of
experiencing them (denominator) in a specific period of time.
Number of Demographic Events

Rate =
Population at Risk during specific period of time

Rate
 When studying the relative incidence of births, deaths, marriages,
migration and other vital events, it is apparent that the number of these
events depends on the interval of time chosen (usually one year).
 A common method of comparing the incidence of births in several
countries is to calculate for each country the number of births during
one year per 1,000 persons in the population of that country at the
middle of the year. The result is called a rate, in this case a rate per
1,000 per year.
>> Mid-year population calculated as the mean or average of the population
at the start and end of the year

Demographic measurements – Rate, examples
Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate

>> Example in Excel

A note on approximation of person-years
When population increase linearly, the When population follows an exponential

estimate of person-years lived using the mid- growth pattern, the two shaded surfaces
period population times period length will be have different areas and the mid-year
accurate because the overestimate for the approximation will underestimate person-
first half-period is exactly offset by the years lived during the period.
underestimate for the second half- period,
i.e., the two triangles have equal areas
Source: Preston et al. (2001: 16) United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
Ratio
 The size of a number relative to another convenient number
 When the population at risk is unavailable >> Ratio
 Denominators for ratios selected depending on the available data and
ease of understanding
 Example: sex ratio >> the number of men per hundred women
(men/women  100)

Proportion
 A ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator
 Decimal fraction (between 0 and 1)
Percentage
 A proportion mutliplied by 100
 Easier to read/interpret

Demographic measurements – Example
Number
(in thous.) ? ?
Sinhalese 11,053 0.744 74.4
Tamil 2,652 0.179 17.9
Ceylon Moor 1,026 0.069 6.9
Others 117 0.008 0.8
Total 14,848 1.000 100.0
Source: Pollard et al. (1990)

Demographic measurements – Example
Number
Proportion Percentage
(in thous.)
Sinhalese 11,053 0.744 74.4
Tamil 2,652 0.179 17.9
Ceylon Moor 1,026 0.069 6.9
Others 117 0.008 0.8
Total 14,848 1.000 100.0
In 1984, 15.5 births per 1,000 population per year were observed in
Australia >> ???? Rate
Source: Pollard et al. (1990)

Demographic measurements - Probability
 The ratio of the number of demographic events to the initial population at risk
of experiencing them in a fixed period of time
 In demography, probabilities are always based on the initial population
 For example, probability of dying at age 100 is based on the number of people
who celebrated their 100th birthdays (initial population)
 Since each occurrence in the numerator (e.g., divorce) must be preceded by

an event in the denominator (marriage), the number of occurrences cannot
exceed the number of preceding events
>> a probability cannot exceed one and, since we are only dealing with positive
quantities, probabilities cannot be negative
Source: Preston et al. (2001: 19)

Demographic measurements - Probability
 Populations do not have probabilities except insofar as they pertain to cohorts
that are included in the population.
 Although we could count the number of marriages in a population during some
calendar year and the number of divorces during that year, the two numbers
combined do not give a sensible estimate of the probability of divorce because
they don't apply to the same cohort. If we happened to choose a year in a
small population where no one married but there was a divorce, our
population's probability of divorce qD would be 1/0 = ∞ (infinity), an obviously
absurd outcome.
 Only when we count the events pertaining to the cohort at risk of the event we
can properly define a probability
Source: Preston et al. (2001: 19)

Demographic measurements - Cohort
 Cohort is the aggregate of all units that experience a particular demographic
event during a specific time interval
 As for a population, a cohort always has some specific geographic referent
whether it is explicit or implicit
 A cohort usually consists of people, but it may also consist of entities (e.g.,
marriages) formed by a demographic event.
 The cohort is usually identified verbally both by the event itself and by the time
period in which it is experienced
 Birth cohort = most used >> Persons born during the same period will pass
through life together
 Examples:
 "US birth cohort of 1942” = all persons born as US citizens in calendar year 1942
 "French marriage cohort of 1990'‘ = all marriages contracted in France during the
calendar year 1990
Source: Preston et al. (2001) United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
Demographic measurements – Cohort
Main limitation of working with cohort is that for computing cohort rates
and probabilities requires complete information on each individual until
he or she has died (or at least has ceased to be "at risk” of the event of
interest)
For mortality, need to wait until the last person of a birth cohort passes
away in order to compute mortality indicators
For fertility, need to wait until the last woman of a birth cohort reaches
the end of her childbearing ages
>> Demographers have developed the artifact of the synthetic cohort

 Synthetic cohort mixes the experiences of persons from different
(birth) cohorts in order to compute demographic indicators
Source: Preston et al. (2001) United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data
Example: Period Fertility vs. Cohort Fertility



Direct and indirect techniques
“In a perfect world, data would always be complete,

accurate, current, pertinent, and unambiguous. In the real
world, data are generally flawed on some or all of these
dimensions”
(Feeney 2003: 190)

Direct techniques require reliable and comprehensive information on
population, births, deaths… usually from censuses and registration
systems
But, in most parts of the world, vital registration is incomplete and
censuses usually suffer from underenumeration and other defects
Many of the standard direct methods of demographic estimation that
can be used in a “perfect world” cannot be applied successfully to the
majority of the world population
Starting in the 1960s, development of estimation methods for use with
deficient and incomplete demographic data (William Brass (1921-1999)
and associates)
>> Indirect demographic estimation

Indirect techniques
Use available information and/or assumption (through the use of models)
to infer the levels and trends of demographic change
Example:
 Levels and trends in child mortality can be estimated by answers to the
question on the number of children ever born and children surviving by age of
women
 Adult mortality can be estimated using answers on the question on parental
survival or on siblings survival
 Fertility can be estimated using the population structure by single age and sex

Indirect techniques – Main references
United Nations (1983), Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic
Estimation, New York: United Nations, available online at:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/manual/
estimate/demographic-estimation.shtml
Moultrie T.A., R.E. Dorrington, A.G. Hill, K. Hill, I.M. Timæus & B. Zaba
(eds) (2013), Tools for Demographic Estimation. Paris: International
Union for the Scientific Study of Population. available online at:
http://demographicestimation.iussp.org/
Available in PDF:
http://demographicestimation.iussp.org/content/get-pdf-book-website

Indirect techniques – Main packages
MORTPAK – The United Nations software package for

demographic measurement, available online:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/mortality/m
ortpak.shtml
Excel templates provided with each chapter of Moultrie et al. (2013), available online:
http://demographicestimation.iussp.org/

“The problem of estimating demographic measures from

incomplete data is a challenging one, one for which there
is no universal answer and one which therefore requires
in the demographer the qualities of resourcefulness and
imagination.”
(Pollard et al. 1990: 164)

References
Brass, W. (1985), Advances in Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality from Limited and Defective Data,
London: Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Feeney G. (2003), "Data assessment“, in Demeny, P & G McNicoll (eds). Encyclopaedia of Population. Vol. 1. New
York: Macmillan Reference USA, pp. 190-193.
IUSSP & UNFPA (n.d.), Population Analysis for Policies and Programmes, Paris: IUSSP and UNFPA, available online
at: http://papp.iussp.org/ (last accessed 1 December 2014).
McFalls, J.A. Jr. (2007), Population: A Lively Introduction, 5th edition, Washington D.C., Population Reference Bureau.
Pollard, A.H., Y. Farhat & G.N. Pollard (1990), Demographic Techniques, 3rd edition, Sydney: Pergamon Press.
Preston, S., P. Heuveline & M. Guillot (2001), Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Oxford:
Blackwell Publishers Ltd.
United Nations (2008). Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, Revision 2. New
York: United Nations, DESA.
UNPD (United Nations Population Division) (2013), World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, New York,
DESA, Population Division, available online at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm (last accessed 1
December 2014).
UNSD (United Nations Statistics Division) (2012), Coverage of Birth and Death Registration [electronic resource],
New York: United Nations, DESA, Statistics Division, available online at:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/CRVS/CR_coverage.htm (last accessed 2 December 2014)
Thank you
Questions/comments?
>> until 12 December:
>> After 12 December: [email protected]

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Overview of Demographic

Concepts and Methods

United Nations Statistics Division

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

One definition among many:

>>The study of population processes

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Source: Preston et al. (2001: 1-2)

World population When? How long?

More developed Less developed

Natural increase per

What are the components of population growth?

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Population Population Natural increase Net migration

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

In history, the first case is more important to understand the impressive

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Before the startMortality

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Adapted from Bloom et al. 2003: 31

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Crude rate (p. 1000)

Crude rate (p. 1000)

Crude rate (p. 1000)

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Each component of population growth (population, births,

>> Data sources

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Some other sources

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

In highly mobile populations, or populations subject to extensive

Source: IUSSP & UNFPA (n.d.)

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Demographic Surveillance System (DSS)

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Number of Demographic Events

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

When population increase linearly, the When population follows an exponential

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Source: Pollard et al. (1990)

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Source: Pollard et al. (1990)

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

 Since each occurrence in the numerator (e.g., divorce) must be preceded by

Source: Preston et al. (2001: 19)

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

Source: Preston et al. (2001: 19)

United Nations Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data

>> Demographers have developed the artifact of the synthetic cohort