What is Polluting

Delhi’s Air?
Understanding
Uncertainties in
Emissions Inventories

Issue Brief I March 2019

Ishita Jalan and Hem H. Dholakia

What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

According to the SAFAR (2018) study, the

average speed of vehicles on major Delhi roads
is 20-30 km/hr. This leads to poor vehicle
mileage and more emissions.

Image: iStock
What is Polluting Delhi’s Air?
Understanding Uncertainties
in Emissions Inventories

Ishita Jalan and Hem H. Dholakia

Issue Brief
March 2019
ceew.in
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

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Issue brief on ‘What is Polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in

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Citation: Ishita Jalan and Hem H. Dholakia (2019) ‘What is Polluting Delhi’s Air?
Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory’, March.

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What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory
ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Ishita Jalan Hem H. Dholakia

[email protected] [email protected]

Ishita is a Research Analyst at CEEW. As a part of Hem leads the Risks and Adaptation team at CEEW.
her work in the Risks and Adaptation team, Ishita His research addresses the linkages between energy,
has worked on issues related to climate risks, air environment, human health, and public policy in
pollution, and water. Ishita is currently working on India. Specifically, his research informs on the health
understanding water-use efficiency in agriculture impacts of urban air pollution, maps climate risks
and estimating the potential of water saving. She is for infrastructure, develops early warning systems
interested in exploring emerging technical tools that for extreme heat, and analyses the potential of
enhance data information and support policy analysis. renewable energy to improve rural health outcomes.
She has a BTech in Environmental Engineering from A health professional and policy researcher, Hem
Delhi Technological University. holds a PhD from the Indian Institute of Management
(Ahmedabad), a Master’s in exercise science from
“Through this study, we hope to bring clarity on the University of Brighton (UK), and an undergraduate
existent discrepancies in the system of building source degree in physiotherapy from Seth G.S. Medical
apportionment. This is an essential step before we scale College.
our efforts to 104 cities as a part of the National Clean
Air Programme (NCAP).” “This synthesis provides a lens to understand the gaps
and opportunities in source apportionment studies. We
believe it will help inform the larger dialogue between
experts, government and, civil society on developing
inventories and prioritising action around air pollution
mitigation in India.”
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Image: iStock
CONTENTS

Executive Summary i

1. Introduction and Methods 1

1.1 What is an emissions inventory?

1.2 Methods

2. Results 5

2.1 Description of the studies

2.2 Variations in emissions inventories

3. Discussion and Recommendations 17

References 19

Annexure 21
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Sector-wise contribution to PM10(%) 7

Figure 2: Sector-wise variation in the emissions inventory for PM10 (%) 8
Figure 3: Sector-wise contribution to PM2.5(%) 8
Figure 4: Sector-wise variation in the emissions inventory for PM2.5 (%) 9
Figure 5: Variation in transport emissions inventory (%) 10
Figure 6: Variation in industries emissions inventory (%) 11
Figure 7: Variation in power plants emissions inventory (%) 12
Figure 8: Variation in road dust emissions inventory (%) 13
Figure 9: Variation in construction emissions inventory (%) 14

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Description of emissions inventories used in this study 5

Table 2: Summary of variation in emissions inventory for PM10 and PM2.5 in five key sectors 9

Table A1: Total emissions load (in kg/day) for Delhi by category for PM10 21

Table A2: Total emissions load (in kg/day) for Delhi by category for PM2.5 22

Table A3: Methodological approach for estimating pollutant loads 23

Table A4: Emission factors used for estimating pollutant loads 26

ABBREVIATIONS
ARAI Automotive Research Association of India
CEA Central Electricity Authority
CEMS Continuous Emissions Monitoring System
CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality monitoring system
CPCB Central Pollution Control Board
CRRI Central Road Research Institute
DDA Delhi Development Authority
DG diesel generator
DIC District Industrial Centre
DMRC Delhi Metro Rail Corporation
DPCC Delhi Pollution Control Committee
EF emissions factor
EPCA Environmental Pollution Control Authority
GAINS Greenhouse gas-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies model
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
MoRTH Ministry of Road Transport and Highways
MoUD Ministry of Urban Development
MSW municipal solid waste
NCR National Capital Region
NSSO National Sample Survey Organisation
PM particulate matter
PUC pollution under control
PWD Public Works Department
SAFAR System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research
USEPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
VKT vehicle kilometres travelled
WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model
WRF-CMAQ Two-way coupled meteorology and air quality model composed of the Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air
Quality (CMAQ) modelling system
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

The transport sector is the largest emitter of

PM2.5 particles (17.9 per cent to 39.2 per cent)
and road dust is the largest countributor of
PM10 particles (35.6 per cent to 65.9 per cent).

Image: iStock
 i

Executive Summary

I n India, every year, air pollution causes 1.24 million deaths. In Indian cities, most of the
year, the average concentration of particulate matter (PM) exceeds Central Pollution
Control Board (CPCB) standards. Making decisions on mitigation and control requires an
understanding of air pollution sources. Source apportionment estimates the contribution of
each source.

The process uses two methodologies - top-down and bottom-up. The two methodologies
complement each other in cross-checking and validating the source apportionment analysis;
therefore, it is advised to use both for a region. Delhi is popular in the narrative of air
pollution, and it has been covered extensively by source apportionment studies (CPCB 2010;
IIT Kanpur 2016; TERI 2018; SAFAR 2018; Guttikunda 2018).

These studies have played an instrumental role in describing the variety of sources that
contribute to air pollution in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), but their estimates
differ significantly. Given that source apportionment information guides pollution mitigation
policy and actions, differences can make the determination of exact sources uncertain and
air quality improvement measures ineffective.

By comparing the existing emissions inventories for Delhi or NCR, this study aims to explain
the differences in these estimates. To detail these differences, we focus on PM10 and PM2.5 in
transport, industries, power plants, road dust, and construction - the five major contributing
sectors. An emissions inventory uses the bottom-up method and forms the basis for a source
apportionment study. A dispersion model is used to calculate the distribution of pollution
using the emissions inventory and meteorological data as input parameters.

The biggest contributor of PM2.5 is the transport sector; its contribution ranges from 17.9 per
cent to 39.2 per cent. Road dust is the second largest source of PM2.5; it contributes between
18.1 per cent and 37.8 per cent. It also contributes 35.6 per cent to 65.9 per cent of PM10 as the
largest source. Similar trends exist for other sectors. The differences are due to each study’s
domain area; year; sampling season chosen; and methodologies of sampling, estimation,
and emissions factors. These factors explain the discrepancies only partially, however;
emissions inventories are different for other, unexplained reasons.

To improve the understanding of air pollution and formulation of policy, several changes
are necessary. Information on sampling frame and sample details needs to be transparent.
Uncertainty should be quantified to explain the spread of observations for a sector. Multiple-
year inventories would capture the dynamic nature of air pollution and enable accurate, real-
time information. Common regulatory guidelines would help in building robust inventories.
Source apportionment based on emissions inventories and dispersion modelling should
be reconciled with receptor modelling to enable convergence between the modelling and
measurement approaches.
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Delhi, as a major urban agglomeration, experiences

frequent construction activities. In 2018,
construction activity along with industrial activities
were banned twice in the month of November and
December as directed by the Environment Pollution
(Prevention & Control) Authority (EPCA).

Image: iStock
1. Introduction and Methods

W orldwide, 9 out of 10 people breathe polluted air1. Air pollution poses one of the
biggest risks to human health. About 29 per cent of deaths and disease due to lung
cancer; 43 per cent from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and 25 per cent of deaths
due to heart disease and stroke2 are attributable to ambient air pollution. The Global Burden
of Disease 2017 reported 1.24 million deaths can be linked to air pollution (Madhipatla et al.,
2018).

Pollution is one of the largest causes of morbidity and mortality; it also puts a great
burden on the Indian economy, causing losses of approximately $56 billion in 2013 alone
(World Bank, 2016). Air quality management measures, short- and long-term, require
an understanding of pollution sources and of the temporal and spatial distribution of
pollutants. Several studies have compiled emissions inventories for India and other Asian
countries. Delhi, among the most polluted cities worldwide, and often discussed in the
popular narrative, is one of the most studied regions in India in the context of air pollution.
This study compares inventories developed for Delhi and its surrounding regions.

1.1 What is an emissions inventory?

An emissions inventory of a given study region is a stock of all its pollution-emitting sources,
such as vehicles, industries, power plants, road dust, construction dust, residential,
diesel generator (DG) sets, biomass/waste burning, crematoria, and hotels. Developing an
emissions inventory is a step in the bottom-up approach of apportioning sources.
Apart from direct emissions estimates, emissions in these sectors are calculated by
multiplying energy consumption with the emissions factor to derive the pollution per unit
energy consumed. This information is an input to the dispersion model, which converts
pollution estimates (mass/year) to ambient concentration (mass/volume). Ambient
concentration is directly comparable to source apportionment estimated using receptor
modelling.3

1 https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/02-05-2018-9-out-of-10-people-worldwide-breathe-polluted-
air-but-more-countries-are-taking-action
2 https://www.who.int/airpollution/ambient/health-impacts/en/
3 Information used from: http://www.urbanemissions.info/publications/primer-on-pollution-source
apportionment
2 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Several emissions inventories have been developed for Delhi or larger areas that include
the NCR.4 These inventories contribute to source apportionment studies. Often, this
drive pollution control decision making in the region by statutory agencies such as the
Environment Pollution Prevention and Control Authority (EPCA), Central Pollution Control
Board (CPCB), and other State Pollution Control Boards (SPCB).

Emissions inventory
Few studies compare emissions inventories across anthropogenic and combustion-
related emissions of air pollutants or analyse uncertainties in inventory measurement
contribute to source
(input parameters). Therefore, the extent of uncertainty in source apportionment (output apportionment
parameter) is unclear. In this note, we compare the emissions inventories for Delhi and studies. These
the NCR. studies often drive
the pollution control
decision making by
statutory agencies

Image: Jaun Rizvi

4 NCR has been defined in the given link: http://ncrpb.nic.in/ncrconstituent.html

 Introduction and Methods 3

1.2 Methods
This work relies on existing emissions inventories that provide estimates for Delhi or the
NCR. The NCR encompasses the entire national Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi (1,483 square
kilometres (sq km) and a few districts of Haryana (thirteen), Uttar Pradesh (eight), and
Rajasthan (two) (totalling 53,600 sq km).

The 13 districts of Haryana are Faridabad, Gurugram, Mewat, Rohtak, Sonepat, Rewari,
Jhajjhar, Panipat, Palwal, Bhiwani (including Charkhi Dadri), Mahendragarh, Jind, and
Karnal. The eight districts of Uttar Pradesh are Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar,
Bulandshahar, Baghpat, Hapur, Shamli, and Muzaffarnagar. The two districts of Rajasthan
are Alwar and Bharatpur.

We studied five inventories developed over the past decade for Delhi or the NCR (CPCB 2010;
IIT Kanpur 2016; TERI 2018; SAFAR 2018; Guttikunda 2018). All the studies used the bottom-
up approach to develop their emissions inventory.

We compared emissions of PM2.5 and PM10 from source sectors including transport,
industries, power plants, residential, road dust, construction, DG sets, biomass/waste
burning, crematoria, hotels, and others. These 10 categories were common to all the studies,
and were therefore suitable for comparison.

The ‘others’ classification was used to aggregate the rest of the emissions category; it is
different for each study. Their constituents have been specified in Figures 1 and 3. Previous
studies (Saikawa et al. 2017) have run simulations for India using different inventories to
assess differences in emissions inputs. However, unlike Saikawa et al (2017), we did not run
any air quality simulations. Instead, we compile the results (ranges) across different studies
to show the absolute and percentage variation in input parameters.
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

According to SAFAR (2018), the Central, Eastern

and South-Eastern zone of Delhi host large number
of industries contributing to PM2.5 emissons in the
range of 25-250 tons/yr.

Image: Pixabay
2. Results

T his section discusses and analyses the studies and presents the magnitude of variations
in their emission inventories.

2.1 Description of the studies

We present a description of the emissions inventories in Table 1. The inventories were
developed for different years ranging from 2007 to 2018. Each study developed the inventory
for a particular year i.e. no multi-year inventories were available.

Guttikunda SAFAR TERI IIT Kanpur CPCB

TABLE 1:
(2018) (2018) (2018) (2016) (2010)
Description of
Year 2018 2018 2016 2013-14 2007 emissions inventories
Continually Summer Winter and Winter and used in this study
Season NA
updated Summer Summer Source: CEEW analysis, 2019

NCT Delhi,
Gurgaon,
Area Faridabad, NCR Delhi* Delhi Delhi
Ghaziabad
cities

1 x 1 km2 400 x 400 m2 4 x 4 km2 grid 2 x 2 km2 grid 2 x 2 km2 grid

resolution for for an area of for entire study for the entire for 10 zones
Horizontal
an area of 80 70 km x 65 km2 area of 292 km city near monitors
resolution km x 80 km2 x 364 km2 extrapolated to
city

Total PM10
Emissions 238.68 268.40 67.49 52.34 64.73
load (kt/year)

Total PM2.5
Emissions 99.15 107.70 31.99 21.39 NA
load (kt/year)

Total PM10
Emissions 654 735 185 143 177
load (ton/day)
6 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Two studies (CPCB and IIT Kanpur) were limited to Delhi and three (Guttikunda, SAFAR, and
TERI) to the NCR. Among the studies of the NCR, Guttikunda (2018) covered only urban areas
of Delhi - Gurugram, Faridabad, and Ghaziabad - and excluded rural areas. The SAFAR study
considered Gurugram, Faridabad, Sonepat, and Jhajjhar (Haryana) and Ghaziabad, Baghpat,
and Gautam Buddha Nagar (Uttar Pradesh).

The horizontal resolution varied from 400 m by 400 m (SAFAR), 1 km by 1 km (Guttikunda),

and 4 km by 4 km grid (TERI). To draw a comparison using TERI’s findings, we have
considered only the emissions inventory for Delhi region, reported separately.

In the SAFAR study, a primary survey was carried out with the help of 150 students guided by
scientists to generate missing primary data, validate secondary data, and collect available
secondary data. Information was found for 26 sources of air pollution, but the final estimate
has been presented for six categories - transport, industries, power plants, residential,
wind blown dust, and others. The ‘others’ category contains the rest of the 20 sources of
air pollution, such as slums, brick kilns, street vendors, hotels, dhabas, construction sites,
hospitals, tourist places, shopping malls, traffic junctions, railways, airports, waste burning,
burning of biomedical waste, crematoria, schools and colleges, diesel generator sets, mobile
towers, and milk and vegetable vans.

The TERI study considered particulate formation through secondary pollutants. Secondary
pollutants are formed by the chemical reaction when primary pollutants interact with the
atmosphere. Photochemical smog, for example, is a secondary pollutant formed when the
sun’s ultraviolet rays react with nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere. Secondary particulate
concentration is estimated through a model output. TERI used, in addition to the dispersion
model, the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System (CMAQ) as it can accept
multiple pollutants simultaneously and also include photochemistry. Therefore, at the
emissions inventory level, the numbers only represent the primary pollutants, which have
been considered for comparison.

The CPCB study did not develop an inventory for PM2.5. All other studies included inventories
for particulate matter (PM10), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), hydrocarbons,
and black carbon.

2.2 Variations in emissions inventories

Figures 1 and 3 display the variations in emissions inventory for PM10 and PM2.5 across the five
studies, and Table 2 details the maximum and minimum percentage values associated with
each sector. For the analysis, the main sectors we consider are transport, industries, power
plants, residential, road dust, construction, DG sets, biomass/waste burning, crematoria,
and hotels and restaurants. The ‘other’ category includes emissions from landfills, airports,
waste/hospital incinerators, concrete batching, and agriculture. Details on the particulate
matter load for both PM10 and PM2.5, along with the percentage contribution for each sector,
are shared in Tables A1 and A2 in the Annexure.

Road dust contributes the maximum to the PM10 pollutant load, varying from 35 per cent
to about 66 per cent across studies, and differing by a factor of two. The next biggest
 Results 7

contributors include power plants and transportation. For PM2.5, transport and road dust are
the largest contributors to pollutant loads. Together, these two categories account for over 40
per cent of the total PM2.5 load across all studies.

Figure 2 shows the variation by sector for PM10 and Figure 4 for PM2.5. The ‘others’ category
has been dropped, as they are not comparable. We observe high variation across the major
pollutant categories of transport, industries, power plants, road dust, and construction.
These variations in sectoral emissions can lead to a large variance in the concentration of
pollutants and to uncertainty around the actual contribution of each source to pollution.
This can also lead to ineffective policy measures as the primary sources of pollution remain
contested.

100%
FIGURE 1:
90% Sector-wise
contribution to PM10
80%
(%)
70% Source: CEEW analysis, 2019

60% *Other
Guttikunda: funeral
50% homes, fireworks, and
earthen material baking
40% SAFAR: MSW treatment
plants, MSW disposal
30%
sites, brick kilns,
crematory,
20%
aviation, incense sticks,
10% etc.

TERI: Landfill fires, waste

0% incinerators/hospital
Guttikunda (2018) SAFAR (2018) TERI (2018) IIT-K (2016) CPCB (2010) incinerators, and airports

IIT-K: Waste incinerators,

Other* Biomass/Waste burning Road dust Industries airport, concrete batching,
Hotels DG sets Residential Transport and agriculture soil dust
Crematoria Construction Power plants

Transport
FIGURE 2:
Industries Sector-wise variation
Power plants
in the emission
inventory for PM10 (%)
Residential
Source: CEEW analysis, 2019
Road dust

Construction

DG sets
Biomass/Waste
burning
Crematoria

Hotels/
Restaurants
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
8 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

100%
FIGURE 3:
90% Sector-wise
contribution to PM2.5
80%
(%)
70% Source: CEEW analysis, 2019

*Other
60%
Guttikunda: funeral
50% homes, fireworks, and
earthen material baking
40% SAFAR: MSW treatment
plants, MSW disposal
30%
sites, brick kilns,
crematory, aviation,
20%
incense sticks, etc.
10% TERI: Landfill fires, waste
incinerators/hospital
0% incinerators, and airports
Guttikunda (2018) SAFAR (2018) TERI (2018) IIT-K (2016)
IIT-K: Waste incinerators,
airport, and concrete
batching
Other* Biomass/Waste burning Road dust Industries
CPCB did not develop an
Hotels DG sets Residential Transport
inventory for PM2.5
Crematoria Construction Power plants

Transport
FIGURE 4:
Industries Sector-wise variation
Power plants
in emissions inventory
for PM2.5 (%)
Residential
Source: CEEW analysis, 2019
Road dust

Construction

DG sets
Biomass/Waste
burning
Crematoria
Hotels/
Restaurants
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
 Results 9

The variation in emissions inventories are due to several factors, which include domain area
of the study, number of sampling stations, time period of sampling, season of sampling,
quality of surveys, emission factors, assumptions, and data on emission abatement
technologies and efficiency of control. Therefore, we compared the methodological
approaches used across studies. Whereas the key differences are presented for the five
sectors with the largest variations (Sections 2.2.1 to 2.2.5), a more detailed picture is provided
in Tables A3 and A4 in the Annexure. Table 2 summarises the variation in the inventory for
the five key sectors.

Variation TABLE 2:
Sector
PM10 (%) PM2.5 (%) Summary of variation
in the emissions
Transport 5.5-19.0 17.9-39.2 inventory for PM10
and PM2.5 in five key
Industries 1.3-18.3 2.3-28.9
sectors
Power plants 2.5-17.0 3.1-11.0 Source: CEEW analysis, 2019

Road dust 35.6-65.9 18.1-37.8

Construction 3.6-21.0 2.2-8.4

10 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

2.2.1 Transport

FIGURE 5:
Variation in transport
PM10 emissions inventory
(%)
Source: CEEW compilation,
2019
PM2.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Guttikunda IIT Kanpur SAFAR TERI CPCB

(2018) (2016) (2018) (2018) (2010)

The major source of PM2.5 is the transport sector; the variation in inventory, from 17.9 per cent
to 39.2 per cent, is due to the differing methodologies used - the number of survey points, in
estimating traffic, and on vehicle fleet composition, fuel consumption, and emission factor.
Also, as data is updated, there are differences in the final numbers.

What is included as transport? The SAFAR (2018) study included data for tourist vehicles
in tourist places, vehicles in shopping malls, and data for commercial taxis. TERI (2018)
and IIT Kanpur (2016) surveyed parking lots, while CPCB (2010) surveyed petrol pumps, bus
terminals, taxi stands, and parking lots.

Sampling: For their primary survey on traffic, SAFAR (2018) used 87 locations and TERI
(2018) used 72 locations; IIT Kanpur (2016) used secondary data by CRRI. The CPCB (2010)
surveyed 10 locations. Guttikunda (2018) used government data for vehicle fleet composition
given by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), vehicle kilometres travelled
(VKT) and trip length by the Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), and age mix of vehicles
given by Pollution Under Control programme.
Transport is a
major contributor
Emissions factor: The source information for emission factors is different such as from the to PM2.5. A common
latest ARAI report to the ARAI (2011), to the older versions such as ARAI (2008) and ARAI
database might
(2007). Few studies have referred to other sources of information on emissions factor - CPCB
(2010 and 2011), Sahu et al. (2011), Developing Integrated Emissions Strategies for Existing
help in reducing
Land -(DIESEL) (2008), and GAINS (2010). Emissions factors vary by vehicle category, within the uncertainties
which there is further categorisation by fuel type (petrol, diesel, CNG, etc.); emission norms in transport
(e.g., BS VI); engine category; reference mass; and deterioration factor.5
inventories

5 The information has been taken from: https://www.araiindia.com/pdf/Indian_Emission_Regulation_Booklet.pdf

 Results 11

2.2.2 Industries

FIGURE 6:
Variation in industries
PM10 emissions inventory
(%)
Source: CEEW compilation,
PM2.5 2019

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Guttikunda IIT Kanpur SAFAR TERI CPCB

(2018) (2016) (2018) (2018) (2010)

Estimates of industry’s contribution of PM10 and PM2.5 vary widely across the studies. For
PM10, similar figures were estimated by CPCB (2011), SAFAR (2018),and Guttikunda (2018),
but their methodologies are very different, and Guttikunda (2018) included the NCR. The
estimates by TERI (2018) and IIT Kanpur (2016) are similar. Industrial contribution to PM2.5
had similar numbers by Guttikunda (2018) at 28.9 per cent and SAFAR (2018) at 22.4 per cent,
while TERI (2018) estimated it at 3.4 per cent and IIT Kanpur (2016) at 2.3 per cent.

What is included as industry? One of the reasons for variations in the inventory is the
difference in what constitutes industrial activity and the method used to calculate emissions.
For example, CPCB (2010) did not include brick kilns for their estimate. Guttikunda (2018)
included construction as an industrial activity, including brick and cement industries and
resuspension of dust.

TERI (2018) used red and orange category industries where it included fuel consumption as What is captured
well as stack emissions data for the final estimate. The study included brick kilns and stone as industrial
crushers. IIT Kanpur approached the calculation by dividing the sources into two categories
- line sources (stack height < 20 m) and point sources (stack height > 20 m) and included
activity has
information on fuel consumption. They have not specified if brick kilns formed a part of significantly varied
their sampling. In SAFAR (2018), brick kilns formed a separate category and, therefore, was across studies.
combined in ‘other’ category in the final estimation. For instance, few
Sampling: To calculate emissions, CPCB used primary data of 36 industrial estates, along
studies do not
with data from the Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC); concerned government include brick kilns
institutions; Office of Commissioner of Industries; Government of NCT, Delhi; the District in their estimation
12 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Industrial Centre; and others. SAFAR (2018) used primary survey data for small industries
and secondary data by DPCC for fuel consumption and production capacity of industries.
They identified 40 types of industries in the survey. TERI (2018) used information on stack
emissions and fuel consumption sourced by DPCC. Similarly, IIT Kanpur (2016) used fuel
consumption data for industries given by DPCC. The study by Guttikunda (2018) used total
energy consumption by the industries in Delhi NCR given by GAINS (2010) and CPCB (2010).

Emissions factor: Emissions factors differed by study. The CPCB study used AP-42 while
SAFAR used AP-42 and Reddy and Venkataraman (2002). Emission factors for the TERI
study included four literature studies (Irfan et al. 2014; CPCB 2011; Jaygopal et al. 2017;
Mantananont et al. 2011). The IIT Kanpur study took emissions factors from CPCB (2011) and a
compilation of emissions factors by the US Environment Protection Agency (USEPA) (AP-42).

2.2.3 Power plants

FIGURE 7:
Variation in power
PM10 plants emissions
inventory (%)
Source: CEEW compilation,
PM2.5 2019

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Guttikunda IIT Kanpur SAFAR TERI CPCB

(2018) (2016) (2018) (2018) (2010)

The difference in the numbers is a result of varying sources of information on power plants
and the method used to calculate the emissions. The method includes emission sources such
as fuel, stacks, ash content, information pollution control devices, and emissions factors.

Data and method: CPCB (2010) included five major power plants, but did not state other
information on stack emissions or fuel consumption of power plants. IIT Kanpur (2016) used
data from CEA (2012) on power plants. TERI (2018) referred to CEA (2017) data to develop
emission inventory. Guttikunda (2018) referred to the State of the Environment Report for
Delhi for data on six major power plants of Delhi. SAFAR (2018) used secondary data on
location, capacity, coal usage, and pollution control device from DPCC and the official
website of Northern Coalfields Limited.

Emissions factor: IIT Kanpur (2016) and SAFAR (2018) used AP-42 for emissions factor. In
TERI (2018), PM emission factors were estimated for coal-based power plants through ash
content, bottom ash ratios, and tail pipe controls. Guttikunda (2018) used GAINS (2010) for
emissions factor.

Image: CEEW
 Results 13

2.2.4 Road dust

FIGURE 8:
Variation in road dust
PM10
emissions inventory
(%)
Source: CEEW compilation,
PM2.5 2019

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Guttikunda IIT Kanpur SAFAR TERI CPCB

(2018) (2016) (2018) (2018) (2010)

Road dust was the highest contributor to the PM10 pollutant load. Across the five studies,
road dust emission calculations are based on AP-42 method. The number of sampling sites,
road types, and road categories varies by study and affects the representative sampling of the
phenomenon.

Method: Guttikunda (2018) adopted the methodology given by USEPA (AP-42), which is
applicable for roads with average road speed 88.5 km/h. The study estimated dust load
for feeder roads, arterial roads, ring roads, and main roads based on vehicle density, mix
of vehicles, silt loading, and vehicle speed. Data on density of vehicles was taken from
CRRI. TERI (2018) used the AP-42 methodology of collecting silt samples for calculating silt
loading at various road types. Estimated VKT was multiplied with the road-wise emissions
factor estimated using silt loading data for dust suspension. CPCB (2010) used a very similar
methodology, and took samples from 10 study zones incorporating arterial, main, and feeder
roads.

IIT Kanpur (2016) used an empirical equation that estimated dust from paved and unpaved
road based on silt loading data and average weight of vehicles travelling on the road. Silt
load samples were taken from 16 locations. The study by SAFAR (2018) categorised PM10
and PM2.5 as windblown dust, which included road dust, fly ash, and soot. Two formulae
have been applied for estimating dust contribution from paved and unpaved road sources.
Secondary information to calculate the estimate was derived from AP-42 and other studies
done previously. There is lack of clarity on how data for flyash and soot have been included
in the estimate for dust contribution.
14 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

2.2.5 Construction

Image: iStock

FIGURE 9:
Variation in
PM10
construction
emissions inventory
(%)
PM2.5
Source: CEEW compilation,
2019

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Guttikunda IIT Kanpur SAFAR TERI CPCB

(2018) (2016) (2018) (2018) (2010)

In the calculation of construction emissions, TERI (2018) and IIT Kanpur (2016) had similar
approaches, while the studies by CPCB (2010) and SAFAR (2018) were different. Each of
the four studies included different activities in the construction sector, which explains the
significant difference in the final inventory.
 Results 15

Method: TERI (2018) and IIT Kanpur (2016) estimated construction dust similarly, by using
secondary data from satellite images and government data sources such as DMRC, PWD,
and DDA. The constituents of construction activity were different, however. TERI (2018)
used four main construction types: big housing complexes, flyovers, roads, and Delhi Metro
construction in Phase 3. IIT Kanpur (2016) did primary survey of construction and demolition
activities and used satellite data for verifying observations.

The studies by CPCB (2010) and SAFAR (2018) approached the estimation differently. The
Information
CPCB (2010) study estimated construction dust by obtaining secondary data from the from satellite
Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) and PWD. Building construction data was classified data has played
into new construction and renovation. Further, road construction data was considered.
an important
SAFAR (2018) lists construction as a source of air pollution, but considers cooking emissions
based on fuel and its quantity used in that category. The final figure against that category is role in locating
missing in the table in the study. Guttikunda (2018) has included the construction sector as a construction
part of the industry emissions inventory. activities for
emissions
Emissions factor: TERI (2018), IIT Kanpur (2016), and CPCB (2010) use AP-42 for calculating
emissions factor. TERI (2018) used the conversion from PM to PM10 and PM2.5 based on the inventory studies
methods of Chow and Watson (1998).
48 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Rickshaw pullers and auto drivers are among

the most vulnerable populations on the road as
they are constantly exposed to polluted air while
operating in open vehicles.

Image: iStock
3. Discussion and Recommendations

I n comparing various emissions inventories of air pollutants for Delhi and the NCR, this
study finds significant differences in their estimates of total pollutant load and, especially,
sectoral emissions.

To improve air quality, we need to design effective emissions inventories and, in turn,
harmonise the inventories. To create better emissions inventories, we need to improve data
transparency, quantify uncertainties, develop multiple-year inventories, common guidelines,
and reconcile the top-down and bottom-up methods.

3.1 Improve data transparency

We can infer that differences in studies result from activity data or emissions factors, but we
need transparent data to understand the reasons for discrepancies. In the transport sector,
inventory depends on the number of on-road vehicles, their age distribution, fuel type, and
VKT. Because there is no common database, studies rely on primary data collection efforts.

The study surveys were carried out across several locations - 72 locations for the TERI (2018)
study and 87 locations for the SAFAR (2018) study - but it is unclear whether these constitute
a representative sample. If the studies used a purposive sampling approach, it may introduce
a bias; and it may not be appropriate to generalise their findings to the NCR. This lack of
transparency and information in sampling frame and sample details is common to all sectors
and studies.

3.2 Quantify uncertainties With no clear

understanding on
There are two sets of uncertainties. The first arises from activity data such as fuel
consumption and efficiency of pollution control equipment. The second set of uncertainties
uncertainties, it is
can be attributed to emissions factors, even though most of these are determined based on difficult to gauge
controlled experiments. When considered together, the uncertainties can compound. the spread and
confidence levels
Uncertainties for PM2.5 may be as high as 86 per cent for the power sector, 201 per cent for
industry, 94 per cent for road transport, and 259 per cent for the domestic sector; for the for each emissions
entire inventory, overall uncertainty may be as high as 145 per cent (Kurokawa et al. 2013). inventory estimate
18 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

However, no study except Guttikunda (2018) provides standard deviations for inventory
estimates. This makes it difficult to gauge the spread and confidence levels for each
parameter. Therefore, authors need to quantify the uncertainty in their studies.

3.3 Develop multiple-year inventories

Air pollution is dynamic in nature. As policies to control different sources are put in place,
the total pollution level changes, as does the relative contribution of different sources.
Developing multi-year inventories helps pollution control agencies identify pollution
sources and design control responses accurately and on time. Further, continual emissions
monitoring systems that measure pollutant loads in the industrial and power sectors are
more accurate than a bottom-up calculation based on fuel use.

This comparison posits, and we argue here, that an emissions inventory needs to be
continually updated. However, each of the studies considered here developed an emissions
inventory for a single year. Therefore, we recommend that ministries and academic/research
groups collaborate to build an ongoing, long-term emissions inventory that is updated every
1-3 years.

3.4 Evolve common guidelines

The USEPA lays down guidelines for state and local agencies to collect comprehensive and
detailed estimates of pollutants and develop a single, common National Emissions Inventory.
Developing multi-
In India, however, the CPCB does not offer similar guidelines or directives. Therefore, several year inventories
uncertainties arise in inventory development, and studies become difficult to compare. There helps pollution
is a need to develop inventories and carry out source apportionment studies across India.
control agencies
identify pollution
3.5 Reconcile top-down and bottom-up methods sources and design
There is a need to better reconcile source apportionment based on emissions inventories and control responses
dispersion modelling with receptor modelling (Pant et al., 2012) and, thereby, bring about accurately and on
convergence between the modelling and measurement approaches.
time
 19

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 21

Annexures

Category Guttikunda % SAFAR % TERI % IIT Kanpur % CPCB %

TABLE A1:
(2018)^ (2018) (2018)# (2016) (2010)
Total emissions load
Transport (in kg/day) for Delhi
by category for PM10
Industries
# The figures are included
Power plants for Delhi region only.

^The region of study

Residential
includes New Delhi,
Agricultural Faridabad, Ghaziabad,
burning Noida, Greater Noida, and
Gurugram.
Road dust
* Others category by
Construction Guttikunda contains
intermittent sources of
DG sets pollution: funeral homes,
fireworks, and earthen
Refuse
material baking. In the
burning/open
SAFAR study, constituents
burning
of this category are the
Crematoria relatively new emerging
contributors: MSW
Hotels/ treatment plants, MSW
restaurants/ disposal sites, brick kilns,
bakeries crematory, aviation,
incense sticks, etc.
Airport
Source: CEEW compilation,
Waste 2019
incinerators/
hospital
incinerators

Landfill fires

Solvents

Concrete
batching

Agricultural
soil dust

Others*

Total
22 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

TABLE A2:
Total emissions load
(in kg/day) for Delhi
by category for PM2.5
# The figures are included
for Delhi region only.

^The region of study

includes New Delhi,
Faridabad, Ghaziabad,
Noida, Greater Noida, and
Gurugram.

*Others category by
urban emissions contains
intermittent sources of
pollution: funeral homes,
fireworks, and earthen
material baking. In the
SAFAR study, constituents
of this category are the
relatively new emerging
contributors: MSW
treatment plants, MSW
disposal sites, brick kilns,
crematory, aviation,
incense sticks, etc.

PM2.5 has not been covered

by CPCB 2008 study

Source: CEEW
compilation, 2019.
 Annexures 23

Category Guttikunda SAFAR TERI IIT Kanpur CPCB

(2018) (2018) (2018) (2016) (2010) TABLE A3:
Methodological
Transport ASIF Primary survey Primary traffic Primary Primary data approach for
methodology of traffic done count at 72 parking lane on vehicle
by Schipper at 87 major/ locations for survey at 20 counts at 10 estimating pollutant
et al. (2000) minor roads. arterial, sub- locations for locations. loads
to calculate arterial, and vehicle count.
Secondary Supplemented
vehicle exhaust minor roads. Source: CEEW compilation,
data from Data on vehicle by CRRI survey
emissions. 2019
Delhi Municipal Fuel counts at 64 (2002).
The variables
Corporation consumption locations by NA: not available
are total Diesel
(transport data from oil CRRI.
travel activity, locomotive
and traffic companies.
vehicle-km emissions
departments).
travelled per VKT estimated. estimated
day (MoUD), based on
Adjustment for
energy use train numbers
high-emitting
per km, and and USEPA
vehicles.
emissions emission
factor. factors.
Number of
vehicles in each
category taken
from MoRTH
(2011).
Data on age
mix of vehicle
fleet taken
from PUC
programme.

Industries Total energy Secondary Industries Inclusion of Industries

consumption data from included bricks, industries with covered are
was taken for DPCC on fuel sugar, paper, stack height metallurgical,
industries in consumption, dyeing, rubber, <20 m as line engineering,
NCR, classified production chemical source. food, textiles,
on the basis capacity, etc. ceramics, plastic, rubber,
Area source
of fuel. Data iron and chemicals, and
of industries
taken from steel, textile, others.
was taken for
GAINS (2010) fertilisers,
major industrial Secondary
and CPCB stone crushers,
areas. data on fuel
(2010). and casting
consumption,
and forging. Secondary
Brick industry type
data on fuel
production Secondary data and capacity
consumption
rate was taken on production from DPCC and
from DPCC.
for calculating and fuel CPCB.
emissions from consumption
Primary survey
the sector. and stack
of industry
monitoring
Construction representatives
data from
activities and industrial
SPCBs.
included for units.
resuspension 5,000 brick
of dust. kilns using
Google Earth.

Power plants Six major Secondary data Secondary Secondary NA

plants included on location, data from CEA data from CEA
in the study. capacity, (2017) and (2012) and
coal usage, stack emissions stack emissions
Data by
pollution from CPCB. from CPCB.
SoEDelhi
control device
(2010). Estimate of
attached,
coal handling
etc. obtained
unit emissions.
from DPCC,
official website
of Northern
Coalfields
Limited.
24 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Category Guttikunda SAFAR TERI IIT Kanpur CPCB

(2018) (2018) (2018) (2016) (2010)

Residential Census (2001) For biomass Population Population and Population and
data. burning in from Census fuel use from fuel use from
households, 87 2011 projected Census 2011. Census (2001)
High
slums in Delhi upto 2016. data.
population
were visited.
density in a Per capita fuel Primary
grid signified consumption data on
LPG, low NSSO (2012). household fuel
density consumption
Pradhan Mantri
signified near 10
UjjwalaYojna
use of coal, monitoring
taken.
biomass, cow sites.
dung, wood,
kerosene, and
LPG.

Agricultural Category not NA Secondary data Not explicitly Not explicitly

burning considered on district- considered – considered –
wise crop study domain study domain
production, was only Delhi was only Delhi
crop-to-waste
ratios,and
primary
surveys.

Road dust UESPA AP-42 AP-42 Primary data of Primary data Estimated
method for road dust from of road dust based on
road dust arterial, sub- from 20 USEPA
resuspension arterial, and locations. methods by
minor roads; road type.
Vehicle density
and chemical
figures taken
analysis.
from CRRI.

Construction This category NA Active Primary Secondary

has been construction data using data on
included in the sites data field survey construction
industries was collected + satellite from Public
through DMRC, validation. Works
PWD, and DDA. Department
Concrete
and DDA.
High-res batching
images from emissions
Google Earth estimate of 40
were used for plants of 120
calculating m3/hr running
the area under for 16 hours.
construction
of big housing
complexes,
flyovers, roads,
and Delhi
Metro Phase III.

DG Sets Site survey NA Secondary Secondary Secondary

for fuel data from data from data on DG set
consumption. Chief Electrical DPCC on DG usage from
Inspectorates set usage. generator
in various suppliers.
districts +
primary data
survey on DG
set usage.

Refuse SoEDelhi NA Estimate based Estimate Estimate based

burning/ (2010) on secondary based on on secondary
open burning literature secondary literature.
literature.
Assumption Assumption
that ~3% waste Assumption that ~1% waste
is burnt in that ~3% is burnt in
Delhi. waste is burnt Delhi.
in Delhi.
 Annexures 25

Category Guttikunda SAFAR TERI IIT Kanpur CPCB

(2018) (2018) (2018) (2016) (2010)

Crematoria Category not Out of 62 Secondary Secondary Secondary

considered cremation data on data on data on
sites, 56 are death counts death counts death counts
traditional and in different in different in different
6 are electric. districts districts. districts.
Estimate of
Total number Assumption of Assumption of
wood use per
of deaths in ~216 kg wood/ ~350 kg wood/
cremation
Delhi was taken cremation. cremation.
through
from Ministry
surveys.
of Home
Affairs, GoI
website.

Restaurants/ Emissions from Street vendor Secondary data Secondary data Secondary
Hotels this sector data was on number of on number of data on
were divided obtained from hotels from hotels from number
between 1,653 samples Delhi Statistical Delhi Statistical of hotels
Residential from 27 Handbook and handbook. from Delhi
sector and DG locations. primary survey Statistical
Assumption on
sets sector. on fuel use. handbook
Secondary fuel use (25%
data from use tandoor). Primary
Delhi Municipal data on
Corporation. restaurant fuel
consumption
near 10
monitoring
sites.

Airports Public domain NA Secondary data Assumption Not explicitly

data on flight on total aircraft on aircraft considered
information. movements at movements at
Emissions Delhi airport. Delhi airport
from this ~800 flights
sector were per day.
included in
the transport
sector.

Waste Category not Data was Secondary data Secondary Secondary data
incinerators considered collected for from European data on on activity and
three waste- Environment activity & capacity from
energy plants Agency. capacity from DPCC.
in Delhi. The DPCC.
source of data
has not been
mentioned.

Landfill fires Emissions NA Landfills Not considered Not considered

from landfills identified using
have been Google Earth +
included in the fire incidences
refuse burning using MODIS
category. satellite data.
26 What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

Category Guttikunda SAFAR TERI IIT Kanpur CPCB

TABLE A4:
(2018) (2018) (2018) (2016) (2010)
Emission factors
Transport CPCB (2010) ARAI, Air ARAI ARAI (2011) ARAI 2008 used for estimating
DIESEL (2008) Quality CPCB (2011) pollutant loads
GAINS(2010) Monitoring
Project-Indian Source: CEEW
Clean Air
Programme,
compilation, 2019
2007 report NA: not available
CPCB (2010)
Sahu et al.
(2011)

Industries Reddy and Reddy & Irfan et. al CPCB (2011) CPCB
Venkataraman Venkataraman (2014)
AP-42 (USEPA, AP-42 (USEPA,
(2002) (2002)
CPCB (2011) 2000) 2000)
AP-42
Gurjar et al.
CPCB (2009)
(2004)
Jaygopal et al.
GAINS (2010)
(2017)
CPCB(2010)
Mantananont
For EF for brick et al. (2011)
kilns – Maithel
GAINS India
et al.
Database

Power plants GAINS (2010) AP-42 The PM AP-42 (USEPA, CPCB

emission 2000)
AP-42 (USEPA,
factors for
2000)
coal-based
power
stations was
customised
using the
ash content,
bottom ash
ratios, and
efficiency
of tailpipe
controls

Residential Zhang et al. Reddy & Datta and CPCB (2011) CPCB
(1999) Venkataraman Sharma (2016)
AP-42 (USEPA, AP-42 (USEPA,
(2002)
Bhattacharya 2000) 2000)
Source
et al. (2000)
Apportionment
Zhang et al. Report, ARAI
(2000)
GAINS (2010)

Agricultural NA NA Datta and NA NA

burning Sharma (2016)

Road dust USEPA AP-42 NA AP-42 Empirical USEPA

equation to methodology
calculate road based on silt
dust using loading, weight
variables - of vehicles,
silt loading road length,
(particles etc.
less than size
75 µm) and
average weight
of vehicles
travelling on
the road
 Annexures 27

Category Guttikunda SAFAR TERI IIT Kanpur CPCB

(2018) (2018) (2018) (2016) (2010)

Construction NA NA AP-42 AP-42 (USEPA, CPCB

2000) AP-42 (USEPA,
2000)

DG sets GAINS (2010) NA Not mentioned CPCB (2011) CPCB

explicitly
AP-42 (USEPA,
2000)

Refuse Not mentioned NA Woodall et.al CPCB (2011) CPCB

burning/open explicitly (2012) Pappu
AP-42 (USEPA, AP-42 (USEPA,
et al. (2007)
burning 2000) 2000)

Crematoria NA NA Akagi et al. CPCB (2011) CPCB

(2008)
AP-42 (USEPA,
2000)

Restaurant NA NA CPCB (2011) CPCB (2011) CPCB

AP-42 (USEPA,
2000)

Airport Not mentioned NA EEA (2013) International NA

explicitly Civil Aviation
IPCC (2000)
Organization
(ICAO)

Waste NA NA EEA (2016) AP-42 (USEPA, AP-42 (USEPA,

incinerators/ 2000) 2000)
Medical waste CPCB (2011)
incinerators

Landfill fires NA NA Woodall et.al NA NA

(2012) Pappu
et al. (2007)

Solvents NA NA NA NA NA
 Supplementary Information Section
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

TERI (2018) estimated that if vacuum-assisted

sweeping is done twice a month, road dust would
decrease by 42%.

Image: iStock
 Image: iStock
What is polluting Delhi’s Air? Understanding Uncertainties in Emissions Inventory

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