Faculty of Information Science & Technology (FIST) : PSM 0325 Introduction To Probability and Statistics
Faculty of Information Science & Technology (FIST) : PSM 0325 Introduction To Probability and Statistics
Faculty of Information Science & Technology (FIST) : PSM 0325 Introduction To Probability and Statistics
(FIST)
PSM 0325
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
ONLINE NOTES
Topic 6
Hypothesis Testing
TOPIC 6
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Reference:
Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Assliza Salim. et al.,Pearson. 2011
Objectives:
1. Be able to state the null and alternative hypothesis.
2. Be able to define Type 1 and Type 2 error.
3. Perform the test by using critical value approach and p-value approach.
4. Be able to differentiate all kind of tests.
Contents:
1. Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis
2. Rejection and Acceptance Region
3. Two Types of Errors
4. Types of Tests
5. Hypothesis Tests about a Population Mean : Large Samples
1. Null Hypothesis
-A null hypothesis is a claim (or statement) about a population parameter that is assumed
to be true until it is declared false
-the hypothesis we wish to test
-denoted by H0
2. Alternative Hypothesis
-An alternative hypothesis is a claim about a population parameter that will be true if the
null hypothesis is false.
-rejection of H0 leads to acceptance of an alternative hypothesis
-denoted by H1
Note : Reject H0 Accept H1
Accept H0 Reject H1
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PSM0325 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Topic 6
Hence, if the null hypothesis Ho: p=0.5 for a binomial population, the alternative
hypothesis Ha would be one of the following:
p 0.5 , p 0.5 , p 0.5
In summary:
Null Hypothesis: Ho, Sign for , , all take "", then
Alternative hypothesis: H1 Sign for , , chosen respectively
2. Type II Error
- Acceptance of a null hypothesis when it is false is called a Type II error
- The value of represents the probability of committing a Type II error
= P(H0 is not rejected H0 is false)
- The value of 1- is called the power of the test, it represents the probability of not
making a Type II error
Actual Situation
H0 is true H0 is false
Accept H0 Correct decision Type II error or error
Decision
Reject H0 Type I error or error Correct decision
1. Two-tailed test
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PSM0325 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Topic 6
A two-tailed test looks for any change or difference in the parameter. It has rejection
region in both tails.
H 0 : 1 H 1 : 1
2. One-tailed test
A one-tailed test looks for a definite decrease or a definite increase in the parameter. It
has only one rejection region either or on the left (left-tailed test) or on the right (right-
tailed test), respectively.
Critical value/critical point - one or two values that divide the whole region under the
sampling distribution of a sample statistic into rejection/critical region and acceptance
region. Critical region depends on the type and the level of the test chosen (significant
level).
Significance Level
Denoted by . The most usual level chosen is the 5% level, but often a 1% or a 10% level
is chosen. These mean that the critical region is 0.01, 0.025, or 0.05, respectively.
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PSM0325 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Topic 6
H 0 : 1 H1 : 1
H1 : 1
H1 : 1
Test Statistic
x x s
z or z where x and s x
x sx n n
is called the test statistic. The test statistic can be defined as a rule or criterion that is used
to make the decision whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.
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PSM0325 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Topic 6
Example 1
A random sample of 100 recorded deaths in the United States during the past years
showed an average life span of 71.8 years. Assuming a population standard deviation of
8.9 years, does this seem to indicate that the mean life span today is greater than 70
years? Use a 0.05 level of significance.
Solution
1. H0 : = 70 years.
H1 : 70 years.
x
2. Critical region: z > 1.645, where z .
/ n
71.8 70
3. x 71.8 years, 8.9 years, and z 2.02.
8.9 / 100
4. Decision: Reject H0 and conclude that the mean life span today is greater than 70
years.
Example 2
A manufacturer of sports equipment has developed a new synthetic fishing line that he
claims has a man breaking strength of 8 kilograms with a standard deviation of 0.5
kilogram. Test the hypothesis that = 8 kilograms against the alternative that 8
kilograms if a random sample of 50 lines is tested and found to have a mean breaking
strength of 7.8 kilograms. Use a 0.01 level of significance.
Solution
1. H0 : =8 kilograms.
H1 : 8 kilograms.
x
2. Critical region: z < -2.575 and z >2.575, where z .
/ n
7.8 8
3. x 7.8 ki log rams, n 50, and hence z 2.83.
0.5 / 50
4. Decision: Reject H 0 and conclude that the average breaking strength is not equal to 8
but is, in fact, less than 8 kilograms.
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