M&M Analysis KC Shared
M&M Analysis KC Shared
M&M Analysis KC Shared
5 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12
Period Month MMFD Forecast Error (D-F))Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error MAPE(t)
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136 4721 -585 585 585 341835 14% 14%
5 Aug-03 3872 4533 -661 661 623 389598 17% 16%
6 Sep-03 5938 4289 1649 1649 965 1166133 28% 20%
7 Oct-03 8790 4649 4141 4141 1759 5162260 47% 27%
8 Nov-03 6825 6200 625 625 1532 4207933 9% 23%
9 Dec-03 4858 7184 -2326 2326 1665 4408582 48% 27%
10 Jan-04 5907 6824 -917 917 1558 3898999 16% 26%
11 Feb-04 6386 5863 523 523 1428 3445772 8% 23%
12 Mar-04 9085 5717 3368 3368 1644 4323288 37% 25%
13 Apr-04 6492 7126 -634 634 1543 3931155 10% 23%
14 May-04 6832 7321 -489 489 1447 3595516 7% 22%
15 Jun-04 8867 7470 1397 1397 1443 3458601 16% 21%
16 Jul-04 4998 7397 -2399 2399 1517 3635263 48% 23%
17 Aug-04 5305 6899 -1594 1594 1522 3557089 30% 24%
18 Sep-04 7618 6390 1228 1228 1502 3420482 16% 23%
19 Oct-04 11443 5974 5469 5469 1750 5076303 48% 25%
20 Nov-04 8716 8122 594 594 1682 4798452 7% 24%
21 Dec-04 6119 9259 -3140 3140 1763 5079627 51% 25%
22 Jan-05 7408 8759 -1351 1351 1742 4908388 18% 25%
23 Feb-05 7493 7414 79 79 1659 4663278 1% 24%
24 Mar-05 8541 7007 1534 1534 1653 4553321 18% 24%
25 Apr-05 8029 7814 215 215 1587 4348453 3% 23%
26 May-05 8650 8021 629 629 1546 4176592 7% 22%
27 Jun-05 9960 8407 1553 1553 1546 4103102 16% 22%
28 Jul-05 7152 8880 -1728 1728 1553 4058372 24% 22%
29 Aug-05 7322 8587 -1265 1265 1542 3963860 17% 22%
30 Sep-05 9239 8145 1094 1094 1526 3861405 12% 21%
31 Oct-05 14123 7904 6219 6219 1693 5104634 44% 22%
32 Nov-05 9566 10228 -662 662 1658 4943724 7% 22%
33 Dec-05 7341 10976 -3635 3635 1724 5219374 50% 22%
34 Jan-06 9404 10343 -939 939 1698 5079470 10% 22%
35 Feb-06 8613 8770 -157 157 1650 4921510 2% 21%
36 Mar-06 9425 8453 972 972 1630 4801022 10% 21%
37 Apr-06 10905 9147 1758 1758 1633 4750680 16% 21%
38 May-06 9842 9648 194 194 1592 4616026 2% 20%
39 Jun-06 12259 10057 2202 2202 1609 4622451 18% 20%
40 Jul-06 9285 11002 -1717 1717 1612 4577198 18% 20%
41 Aug-06 7950 10462 -2512 2512 1636 4622802 32% 21%
42 Sep-06 11482 9831 1651 1651 1636 4574133 14% 20%
43 Oct-06 15817 9572 6245 6245 1751 5434676 39% 21%
44 Nov-06 10288 11750 -1462 1462 1744 5354232 14% 21%
45 Dec-06 8743 12529 -3786 3786 1793 5568031 43% 21%
46 Jan-07 10419 11616 -1197 1197 1779 5471863 11% 21%
47 Feb-07 8801 9817 -1016 1016 1762 5370947 12% 21%
48 Mar-07 8631 9321 -690 690 1738 5262173 8% 21%
49 Apr-07 9682 9284 398 398 1709 5151227 4% 20%
50 May-07 9052 9038 14 14 1673 5041631 0% 20%
51 Jun-07 11477 9122 2355 2355 1687 5052172 21% 20%
52 Jul-07 8242 10070 -1828 1828 1690 5017287 22% 20%
53 Aug-07 7674 9590 -1916 1916 1694 4990388 25% 20%
54 Sep-07 10339 9131 1208 1208 1685 4921150 12% 20%
55 Oct-07 13919 8752 5167 5167 1752 5340000 37% 20%
56 Nov-07 10531 10644 -113 113 1721 5239486 1% 20%
57 Dec-07 8435 11596 -3161 3161 1747 5327533 37% 20%
58 Jan-08 9750 10962 -1212 1212 1738 5257362 12% 20%
59 Feb-08 8477 9572 -1095 1095 1726 5184892 13% 20%
60 Mar-08 9814 8887 927 927 1712 5108994 9% 20%
61 Apr-08 10684 9347 1337 1337 1706 5051728 13% 19%
62 May-08 11693 9658 2035 2035 1711 5036273 17% 19%
63 Jun-08 14439 10730 3709 3709 1745 5181572 26% 20%
64 Jul-08 9081 12272 -3191 3191 1768 5263554 35% 20%
65 Aug-08 9781 11738 -1957 1957 1771 5240408 20% 20%
66 Sep-08 10307 11100 -793 793 1756 5167217 8% 20%
67 Oct-08 14800 9723 5077 5077 1808 5489229 34% 20%
68 Nov-08 7960 11629 -3669 3669 1836 5611917 46% 20%
69 Dec-08 6858 11022 -4164 4164 1872 5789641 61% 21%
70 Jan-09 9438 9873 -435 435 1850 5706048 5% 21%
71 Feb-09 8487 8085 402 402 1829 5624508 5% 20%
72 Mar-09 10609 8261 2348 2348 1836 5622894 22% 20%
73 Apr-09 11282 9511 1771 1771 1835 5587356 16% 20%
74 May-09 12870 10126 2744 2744 1848 5614711 21% 20%
75 Jun-09 17811 11587 6224 6224 1909 6074759 35% 21%
76 Jul-09 12128 13988 -1860 1860 1908 6038918 15% 20%
77 Aug-09 10161 14270 -4109 4109 1938 6185435 40% 21%
78 Sep-09 16359 13367 2992 2992 1952 6222349 18% 21%
79 Oct-09 17796 12883 4913 4913 1991 6458119 28% 21%
80 Nov-09 11604 14772 -3168 3168 2006 6504588 27% 21%
81 Dec-09 11517 15253 -3736 3736 2029 6600141 32% 21%
82 Jan-10 15925 13639 2286 2286 2032 6582744 14% 21%
83 Feb-10 13532 13015 517 517 2013 6503796 4% 21%
84 Mar-10 14648 13658 990 990 2000 6435603 7% 21%
85 Apr-10 15697 14702 995 995 1988 6369201 6% 20%
86 May-10 16653 14626 2027 2027 1989 6341983 12% 20%
87 Jun-10 15411 15666 -255 255 1968 6267257 2% 20%
88 Jul-10 13534 15920 -2386 2386 1973 6260520 18% 20%
89 Aug-10 12454 15199 -2745 2745 1982 6275361 22% 20%
90 Sep-10 16300 13800 2500 2500 1988 6275089 15% 20%
91 Oct-10 23378 14096 9282 9282 2071 7182821 40% 20%
92 Nov-10 16975 17377 -402 402 2052 7103934 2% 20%
93 Dec-10 15135 18884 -3749 3749 2071 7181196 25% 20%
94 Jan-11 19430 18496 934 934 2058 7111868 5% 20%
95 Feb-11 17534 17180 354 354 2040 7035927 2% 20%
96 Mar-11 17822 17366 456 456 2023 6962505 3% 20%
97 Apr-11 17740 18262 -522 522 2007 6891334 3% 19%
98 May-11 17952 17699 253 253 1988 6819469 1% 19%
99 Jun-11 21552 17838 3714 3714 2006 6892119 17% 19%
100 Jul-11 15699 19081 -3382 3382 2020 6939006 22% 19%
101 Aug-11 15059 18401 -3342 3342 2034 6982169 22% 19%
102 Sep-11 23508 17437 6071 6071 2075 7283976 26% 19%
103 Oct-11 30519 18089 12430 12430 2178 8756268 41% 20%
104 Nov-11 16175 23029 -6854 6854 2225 9134649 42% 20%
105 Dec-11 15315 23401 -8086 8086 2282 9686054 53% 20%
106 Jan-12 17950 20670 -2720 2720 2286 9663827 15% 20%
107 Feb-12 13534 16480 -2946 2946 2293 9654356 22% 20%
108 Mar-12 15054 15600 -546 546 2276 9565246 4% 20%
109 Apr-12 15513
110 May-12 15513
111 Jun-12 15513
112 Jul-12 15513
113 Aug-12 15513
114 Sep-12 15513
115 Oct-12 15513
116 Nov-12 15513
117 Dec-12 15513
118 Jan-13 15513
119 Feb-13 15513
120 Mar-13 15513
TS(t)
35000
30000
-1.00 25000
-2.00
0.42 20000
2.58
15000
3.37
1.71 10000
1.24
1.71 5000
3.54
3.36 0
3.24
4.22
2.43
1.38 TS(t)
2.21
25
5.02
5.58 20
3.54
2.81 15
3.00
3.94 10
4.24
5
4.76
5.76 0
4.62 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
3.84 -5
4.59
7.81
7.58
5.18
4.71
4.75
5.40
6.47
6.76
8.05
6.97
5.34
6.35
9.49
8.69
6.35
5.72
5.20
4.88
5.19
5.31
6.67
5.57
4.43
5.17
7.92
8.00
6.07
5.40
4.80
5.38
6.19
7.36
9.34
7.41
6.30
5.90
8.54
6.41
4.06
3.87
4.14
5.40
6.37
7.81
10.82
9.85
7.58
9.06
11.35
9.68
7.73
8.85
9.19
9.74
10.30
11.32
11.31
10.07
8.64
9.87
13.96
13.89
11.95
12.48
12.77
13.10
12.94
13.19
14.92
13.14
11.41
14.12
19.15
15.67
11.73
10.52
9.21
9.04
MMFD
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
Period Month MMFD Forecast Error (D-F))Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error MAPE(t)
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136 4694 -558 558 558 311178 13% 13%
5 Aug-03 3872 4612 -740 740 649 429019 19% 16%
6 Sep-03 5938 4454 1485 1485 927 1020593 25% 19%
7 Oct-03 8790 4348 4442 4442 1806 5697545 51% 27%
8 Nov-03 6825 5380 1445 1445 1734 4975449 21% 26%
9 Dec-03 4858 7037 -2179 2179 1808 4937184 45% 29%
10 Jan-04 5907 7480 -1573 1573 1774 4585198 27% 29%
11 Feb-04 6386 6016 370 370 1599 4029130 6% 26%
12 Mar-04 9085 5462 3623 3623 1824 5039639 40% 27%
13 Apr-04 6492 6596 -104 104 1652 4536764 2% 25%
14 May-04 6832 7303 -471 471 1544 4144527 7% 23%
15 Jun-04 8867 7845 1022 1022 1501 3886161 12% 22%
16 Jul-04 4998 7001 -2003 2003 1539 3895893 40% 24%
17 Aug-04 5305 7205 -1900 1900 1565 3875382 36% 24%
18 Sep-04 7618 6984 634 634 1503 3643848 8% 23%
19 Oct-04 11443 5537 5906 5906 1778 5596160 52% 25%
20 Nov-04 8716 7099 1617 1617 1769 5420779 19% 25%
21 Dec-04 6119 9076 -2957 2957 1835 5605394 48% 26%
22 Jan-05 7408 9647 -2239 2239 1856 5574144 30% 26%
23 Feb-05 7493 7632 -139 139 1770 5296407 2% 25%
24 Mar-05 8541 6778 1763 1763 1770 5192261 21% 25%
25 Apr-05 8029 7625 404 404 1708 4963662 5% 24%
26 May-05 8650 7932 718 718 1665 4770286 8% 23%
27 Jun-05 9960 8389 1572 1572 1661 4674424 16% 23%
28 Jul-05 7152 8558 -1406 1406 1651 4566502 20% 23%
29 Aug-05 7322 8837 -1515 1515 1645 4479145 21% 23%
30 Sep-05 9239 8584 655 655 1609 4329125 7% 22%
31 Oct-05 14123 7557 6567 6567 1786 5714474 46% 23%
32 Nov-05 9566 9095 472 472 1741 5525090 5% 22%
33 Dec-05 7341 10922 -3581 3581 1802 5768253 49% 23%
34 Jan-06 9404 11474 -2070 2070 1810 5720358 22% 23%
35 Feb-06 8613 8797 -184 184 1760 5542659 2% 23%
36 Mar-06 9425 8241 1184 1184 1742 5417204 13% 22%
37 Apr-06 10905 9144 1761 1761 1743 5349101 16% 22%
38 May-06 9842 9266 576 576 1709 5205760 6% 22%
39 Jun-06 12259 9988 2271 2271 1725 5204439 19% 22%
40 Jul-06 9285 10776 -1491 1491 1719 5123888 16% 21%
41 Aug-06 7950 10555 -2605 2605 1742 5167606 33% 22%
42 Sep-06 11482 10550 933 933 1721 5057399 8% 21%
43 Oct-06 15817 9206 6611 6611 1844 6023542 42% 22%
44 Nov-06 10288 10439 -151 151 1802 5877179 1% 21%
45 Dec-06 8743 12728 -3985 3985 1854 6115347 46% 22%
46 Jan-07 10419 12795 -2376 2376 1866 6104417 23% 22%
47 Feb-07 8801 9795 -994 994 1847 5988128 11% 22%
48 Mar-07 8631 9311 -680 680 1821 5865345 8% 21%
49 Apr-07 9682 9582 100 100 1783 5738056 1% 21%
50 May-07 9052 8891 161 161 1749 5616520 2% 21%
51 Jun-07 11477 9052 2426 2426 1763 5622073 21% 21%
52 Jul-07 8242 9771 -1529 1529 1758 5555058 19% 21%
53 Aug-07 7674 9725 -2051 2051 1764 5528116 27% 21%
54 Sep-07 10339 9765 574 574 1741 5426186 6% 20%
55 Oct-07 13919 8402 5517 5517 1813 5907133 40% 21%
56 Nov-07 10531 9603 928 928 1796 5811921 9% 21%
57 Dec-07 8435 11564 -3129 3129 1821 5885639 37% 21%
58 Jan-08 9750 11876 -2126 2126 1827 5860782 22% 21%
59 Feb-08 8477 9702 -1225 1225 1816 5782929 14% 21%
60 Mar-08 9814 8880 934 934 1800 5696768 10% 21%
61 Apr-08 10684 9336 1348 1348 1793 5629861 13% 20%
62 May-08 11693 9291 2403 2403 1803 5632271 21% 20%
63 Jun-08 14439 10417 4022 4022 1840 5807985 28% 21%
64 Jul-08 9081 11646 -2565 2565 1852 5820642 28% 21%
65 Aug-08 9781 12173 -2392 2392 1861 5819046 24% 21%
66 Sep-08 10307 11877 -1570 1570 1856 5765789 15% 21%
67 Oct-08 14800 9519 5281 5281 1909 6111519 36% 21%
68 Nov-08 7960 10793 -2833 2833 1924 6140956 36% 21%
69 Dec-08 6858 11414 -4556 4556 1964 6362344 66% 22%
70 Jan-09 9438 11196 -1758 1758 1961 6313529 19% 22%
71 Feb-09 8487 7839 648 648 1941 6226858 8% 22%
72 Mar-09 10609 7990 2620 2620 1951 6236060 25% 22%
73 Apr-09 11282 9316 1966 1966 1951 6202180 17% 21%
74 May-09 12870 9660 3210 3210 1969 6259939 25% 22%
75 Jun-09 17811 11210 6601 6601 2033 6778148 37% 22%
76 Jul-09 12128 12900 -772 772 2016 6693450 6% 22%
77 Aug-09 10161 14393 -4232 4232 2046 6845061 42% 22%
78 Sep-09 16359 14642 1717 1717 2042 6793117 10% 22%
79 Oct-09 17796 12178 5619 5619 2089 7119096 32% 22%
80 Nov-09 11604 13500 -1896 1896 2086 7073302 16% 22%
81 Dec-09 11517 16046 -4529 4529 2117 7245532 39% 22%
82 Jan-10 15925 14686 1240 1240 2106 7173264 8% 22%
83 Feb-10 13532 12295 1237 1237 2095 7102721 9% 22%
84 Mar-10 14648 13322 1326 1326 2086 7036734 9% 21%
85 Apr-10 15697 14915 783 783 2070 6958388 5% 21%
86 May-10 16653 14265 2388 2388 2074 6943267 14% 21%
87 Jun-10 15411 15332 79 79 2050 6860683 1% 21%
88 Jul-10 13534 15968 -2434 2434 2055 6849668 18% 21%
89 Aug-10 12454 15719 -3265 3265 2069 6893989 26% 21%
90 Sep-10 16300 14293 2008 2008 2068 6861070 12% 21%
91 Oct-10 23378 13635 9743 9743 2155 7861809 42% 21%
92 Nov-10 16975 15557 1418 1418 2147 7796077 8% 21%
93 Dec-10 15135 18772 -3637 3637 2164 7856415 24% 21%
94 Jan-11 19430 19870 -440 440 2145 7772207 2% 21%
95 Feb-11 17534 16771 763 763 2130 7694057 4% 21%
96 Mar-11 17822 16967 856 856 2116 7619195 5% 20%
97 Apr-11 17740 18530 -790 790 2102 7544779 4% 20%
98 May-11 17952 17664 288 288 2083 7466232 2% 20%
99 Jun-11 21552 17816 3736 3736 2100 7533825 17% 20%
100 Jul-11 15699 18446 -2747 2747 2107 7533951 17% 20%
101 Aug-11 15059 18777 -3718 3718 2123 7598092 25% 20%
102 Sep-11 23508 18519 4989 4989 2152 7772776 21% 20%
103 Oct-11 30519 16787 13732 13732 2268 9580681 45% 20%
104 Nov-11 16175 20452 -4277 4277 2288 9666938 26% 20%
105 Dec-11 15315 24623 -9308 9308 2356 10421535 61% 21%
106 Jan-12 17950 23204 -5254 5254 2385 10588326 29% 21%
107 Feb-12 13534 16184 -2650 2650 2387 10554048 20% 21%
108 Mar-12 15054 15897 -842 842 2372 10460293 6% 21%
109 Apr-12 15995
110 May-12 15995
111 Jun-12 15995
112 Jul-12 15995
113 Aug-12 15995
114 Sep-12 15995
115 Oct-12 15995
116 Nov-12 15995
117 Dec-12 15995
118 Jan-13 15995
119 Feb-13 15995
120 Mar-13 15995
TS(t)
35000
30000
-1.00 25000
-2.00
0.20 20000
2.56
15000
3.50
2.15 10000
1.31
1.68 5000
3.46
3.76 0
3.72
4.50
3.09
1.83 TS(t)
2.32
25
5.29
6.23 20
4.39
3.14 15
3.21
4.21 10
4.60
5
5.15
6.10 0
5.29 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
4.39 -5
4.89
8.08
8.57
6.29
5.11
5.16
5.89
6.90
7.37
8.62
7.78
6.18
6.80
9.93
10.08
7.65
6.32
5.85
5.56
5.74
5.94
7.27
6.42
5.24
5.64
8.45
9.05
7.21
6.02
5.38
5.95
6.72
8.02
10.04
8.59
7.27
6.44
9.03
7.49
5.01
4.13
4.50
5.82
6.83
8.40
11.38
11.09
8.86
9.72
12.19
11.30
8.99
9.63
10.27
10.95
11.41
12.54
12.73
11.51
9.86
10.83
14.91
15.63
13.83
13.75
14.20
14.70
14.42
14.69
16.35
15.00
13.13
15.27
20.55
18.50
14.01
11.64
10.52
10.23
#
3
2
1
6
MMFD
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
Month Weights
Immediate past month 0.5
Immediate past month - 1 month 0.333333
Immediate past month - 2 months 0.166667
Period Month MMFD Forecast Error (D-F))Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error MAPE(t)
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136
5 Aug-03 3872
6 Sep-03 5938
7 Oct-03 8790 4685 4105 4105 4105 16853762 47% 47%
8 Nov-03 6825 5367 1458 1458 2782 9490249 21% 34%
9 Dec-03 4858 5737 -879 879 2147 6584184 18% 29%
10 Jan-04 5907 5737 171 171 1653 4945406 3% 22%
11 Feb-04 6386 6032 354 354 1393 3981435 6% 19%
12 Mar-04 9085 6451 2634 2634 1600 4474481 29% 21%
13 Apr-04 6492 6975 -483 483 1441 3868620 7% 19%
14 May-04 6832 6592 240 240 1291 3392232 4% 17%
15 Jun-04 8867 6593 2274 2274 1400 3589713 26% 18%
16 Jul-04 4998 7262 -2264 2264 1486 3743085 45% 21%
17 Aug-04 5305 7110 -1805 1805 1515 3698989 34% 22%
18 Sep-04 7618 6930 688 688 1446 3430204 9% 21%
19 Oct-04 11443 6685 4758 4758 1701 4907526 42% 22%
20 Nov-04 8716 7511 1206 1206 1666 4660791 14% 22%
21 Dec-04 6119 7825 -1706 1706 1668 4543987 28% 22%
22 Jan-05 7408 7367 42 42 1567 4260095 1% 21%
23 Feb-05 7493 7768 -275 275 1491 4013955 4% 20%
24 Mar-05 8541 8133 408 408 1430 3800213 5% 19%
25 Apr-05 8029 8287 -258 258 1369 3603696 3% 18%
26 May-05 8650 7718 932 932 1347 3466974 11% 18%
27 Jun-05 9960 7707 2253 2253 1390 3543666 23% 18%
28 Jul-05 7152 8347 -1195 1195 1381 3447483 17% 18%
29 Aug-05 7322 8304 -982 982 1364 3339533 13% 18%
30 Sep-05 9239 8276 963 963 1347 3239053 10% 17%
31 Oct-05 14123 8392 5731 5731 1523 4423266 41% 18%
32 Nov-05 9566 9408 158 158 1470 4254104 2% 18%
33 Dec-05 7341 9560 -2219 2219 1498 4278968 30% 18%
34 Jan-06 9404 9124 280 280 1454 4128951 3% 18%
35 Feb-06 8613 9499 -886 886 1435 4013653 10% 17%
36 Mar-06 9425 9714 -289 289 1397 3882655 3% 17%
37 Apr-06 10905 9745 1160 1160 1389 3800789 11% 17%
38 May-06 9842 9209 633 633 1365 3694536 6% 16%
39 Jun-06 12259 9255 3004 3004 1415 3856036 25% 17%
40 Jul-06 9285 10075 -790 790 1397 3760963 9% 16%
41 Aug-06 7950 10055 -2105 2105 1417 3780088 26% 17%
42 Sep-06 11482 9944 1538 1538 1420 3740764 13% 17%
43 Oct-06 15817 10287 5530 5530 1531 4466123 35% 17%
44 Nov-06 10288 11106 -818 818 1512 4366195 8% 17%
45 Dec-06 8743 11180 -2437 2437 1536 4406543 28% 17%
46 Jan-07 10419 10594 -175 175 1502 4297147 2% 17%
47 Feb-07 8801 10783 -1982 1982 1514 4288167 23% 17%
48 Mar-07 8631 10925 -2294 2294 1532 4311364 27% 17%
49 Apr-07 9682 10450 -768 768 1515 4224811 8% 17%
50 May-07 9052 9427 -375 375 1489 4131994 4% 17%
51 Jun-07 11477 9221 2256 2256 1506 4153239 20% 17%
52 Jul-07 8242 9677 -1435 1435 1504 4107717 17% 17%
53 Aug-07 7674 9314 -1640 1640 1507 4077556 21% 17%
54 Sep-07 10339 9126 1213 1213 1501 4023244 12% 17%
55 Oct-07 13919 9411 4508 4508 1562 4355873 32% 17%
56 Nov-07 10531 10117 414 414 1539 4272180 4% 17%
57 Dec-07 8435 10364 -1929 1929 1547 4261348 23% 17%
58 Jan-08 9750 9857 -107 107 1519 4179618 1% 17%
59 Feb-08 8477 10108 -1631 1631 1521 4150949 19% 17%
60 Mar-08 9814 10242 -428 428 1501 4077469 4% 16%
61 Apr-08 10684 10154 530 530 1484 4008435 5% 16%
62 May-08 11693 9615 2078 2078 1494 4013952 18% 16%
63 Jun-08 14439 9809 4630 4630 1549 4319644 32% 16%
64 Jul-08 9081 10810 -1729 1729 1552 4296680 19% 17%
65 Aug-08 9781 10698 -917 917 1541 4238107 9% 16%
66 Sep-08 10307 10915 -608 608 1526 4173640 6% 16%
67 Oct-08 14800 10998 3803 3803 1563 4342253 26% 16%
68 Nov-08 7960 11684 -3724 3724 1598 4495837 47% 17%
69 Dec-08 6858 11061 -4203 4203 1639 4704919 61% 18%
70 Jan-09 9438 9798 -360 360 1619 4633427 4% 17%
71 Feb-09 8487 9857 -1370 1370 1616 4591033 16% 17%
72 Mar-09 10609 9642 967 967 1606 4535650 9% 17%
73 Apr-09 11282 9692 1590 1590 1606 4505687 14% 17%
74 May-09 12870 9106 3764 3764 1637 4647812 29% 17%
75 Jun-09 17811 9924 7887 7887 1728 5481971 44% 18%
76 Jul-09 12128 11750 379 379 1709 5405703 3% 18%
77 Aug-09 10161 12198 -2037 2037 1713 5387999 20% 18%
78 Sep-09 16359 12477 3882 3882 1743 5522488 24% 18%
79 Oct-09 17796 13435 4361 4361 1779 5707343 25% 18%
80 Nov-09 11604 14521 -2917 2917 1795 5745188 25% 18%
81 Dec-09 11517 14310 -2793 2793 1808 5772585 24% 18%
82 Jan-10 15925 13261 2664 2664 1819 5790021 17% 18%
83 Feb-10 13532 13894 -362 362 1800 5716525 3% 18%
84 Mar-10 14648 14456 193 193 1780 5643711 1% 18%
85 Apr-10 15697 14170 1527 1527 1776 5601775 10% 17%
86 May-10 16653 13821 2833 2833 1790 5632041 17% 17%
87 Jun-10 15411 14662 749 749 1777 5569435 5% 17%
88 Jul-10 13534 15311 -1777 1777 1777 5540024 13% 17%
89 Aug-10 12454 14913 -2459 2459 1785 5546099 20% 17%
90 Sep-10 16300 14733 1567 1567 1782 5509312 10% 17%
91 Oct-10 23378 15008 8370 8370 1860 6268663 36% 17%
92 Nov-10 16975 16288 687 687 1846 6201254 4% 17%
93 Dec-10 15135 16342 -1207 1207 1839 6146721 8% 17%
94 Jan-11 19430 16296 3134 3134 1854 6188485 16% 17%
95 Feb-11 17534 17279 255 255 1836 6119684 1% 17%
96 Mar-11 17822 18125 -303 303 1819 6052709 2% 17%
97 Apr-11 17740 18379 -639 639 1806 5990683 4% 17%
98 May-11 17952 17439 513 513 1792 5928424 3% 16%
99 Jun-11 21552 17602 3950 3950 1815 6032432 18% 16%
100 Jul-11 15699 18672 -2973 2973 1827 6062265 19% 16%
101 Aug-11 15059 18050 -2991 2991 1839 6092611 20% 17%
102 Sep-11 23508 17637 5871 5871 1881 6388154 25% 17%
103 Oct-11 30519 18585 11934 11934 1985 7790547 39% 17%
104 Nov-11 16175 20715 -4540 4540 2011 7921359 28% 17%
105 Dec-11 15315 20419 -5104 5104 2042 8104451 33% 17%
106 Jan-12 17950 19379 -1429 1429 2036 8043831 8% 17%
107 Feb-12 13534 19754 -6220 6220 2078 8347284 46% 17%
108 Mar-12 15054 19500 -4446 4446 2101 8459256 30% 17%
109 Apr-12 18091
110 May-12 18091
111 Jun-12 18091
112 Jul-12 18091
113 Aug-12 18091
114 Sep-12 18091
115 Oct-12 18091
116 Nov-12 18091
117 Dec-12 18091
118 Jan-13 18091
119 Feb-13 18091
120 Mar-13 18091
TS(t)
35000
30000
25000
20000
1.00
15000
2.00
2.18 10000
2.94
3.74 5000
4.90
5.11 0
5.89
7.05
5.12
3.83 TS(t)
4.49 35
6.61
30
7.48
6.45 25
6.89 20
7.06
15
7.64
7.79 10
8.61 5
9.97
0
9.17
8.56
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
9.38
12.07
12.61
10.89
11.41
10.95
11.04
11.93
12.60
14.28
13.91
12.22
13.28
15.93
15.58
13.76
13.95
12.53
10.88
10.50
10.44
11.82
10.87
9.76
10.61
13.08
13.54
12.23
12.38
11.29
11.16
11.65
12.96
15.49
14.34
13.85
13.59
15.70
13.03
10.14
10.04
9.21
9.87
10.86
12.95
16.84
17.25
16.01
17.96
20.05
18.26
16.58
17.94
17.93
18.24
19.13
20.58
21.15
20.15
18.68
19.58
23.27
23.81
23.25
24.76
25.14
25.21
25.03
25.52
27.37
25.55
23.76
26.35
30.98
28.33
25.39
24.77
21.28
18.93
MMFD
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
Period Month MMFD Forecast Error (D-F))Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error MAPE(t)
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136
5 Aug-03 3872
6 Sep-03 5938
7 Oct-03 8790 4607 4183 4183 4183 17500676 48% 48%
8 Nov-03 6825 4798 2027 2027 3105 10805378 30% 39%
9 Dec-03 4858 5121 -263 263 2158 7226642 5% 28%
10 Jan-04 5907 5372 535 535 1752 5491614 9% 23%
11 Feb-04 6386 5913 473 473 1496 4437974 7% 20%
12 Mar-04 9085 6650 2435 2435 1653 4686439 27% 21%
13 Apr-04 6492 6946 -454 454 1482 4046448 7% 19%
14 May-04 6832 6318 514 514 1361 3573605 8% 18%
15 Jun-04 8867 6252 2615 2615 1500 3936175 29% 19%
16 Jul-04 4998 6939 -1941 1941 1544 3919306 39% 21%
17 Aug-04 5305 7283 -1978 1978 1583 3918583 37% 22%
18 Sep-04 7618 7438 180 180 1466 3594731 2% 21%
19 Oct-04 11443 6752 4691 4691 1714 5010599 41% 22%
20 Nov-04 8716 7043 1673 1673 1711 4852509 19% 22%
21 Dec-04 6119 7327 -1208 1208 1678 4626300 20% 22%
22 Jan-05 7408 6898 510 510 1605 4353391 7% 21%
23 Feb-05 7493 7690 -197 197 1522 4099588 3% 20%
24 Mar-05 8541 8498 43 43 1440 3871937 1% 19%
25 Apr-05 8029 8689 -660 660 1399 3691064 8% 18%
26 May-05 8650 7624 1026 1026 1380 3559101 12% 18%
27 Jun-05 9960 7336 2624 2624 1439 3717483 26% 18%
28 Jul-05 7152 7973 -821 821 1411 3579113 11% 18%
29 Aug-05 7322 8229 -907 907 1389 3459236 12% 18%
30 Sep-05 9239 8452 787 787 1364 3340893 9% 17%
31 Oct-05 14123 8410 5713 5713 1538 4512944 40% 18%
32 Nov-05 9566 8804 762 762 1508 4361727 8% 18%
33 Dec-05 7341 9064 -1723 1723 1516 4310092 23% 18%
34 Jan-06 9404 8825 579 579 1483 4168143 6% 18%
35 Feb-06 8613 9495 -882 882 1462 4051262 10% 17%
36 Mar-06 9425 10179 -754 754 1439 3935166 8% 17%
37 Apr-06 10905 10324 581 581 1411 3819130 5% 17%
38 May-06 9842 8920 922 922 1396 3726372 9% 17%
39 Jun-06 12259 8831 3428 3428 1457 3969607 28% 17%
40 Jul-06 9285 9612 -327 327 1424 3855995 4% 16%
41 Aug-06 7950 9798 -1848 1848 1436 3843368 23% 17%
42 Sep-06 11482 10178 1304 1304 1432 3783834 11% 17%
43 Oct-06 15817 10424 5393 5393 1539 4467510 34% 17%
44 Nov-06 10288 10482 -194 194 1504 4350932 2% 17%
45 Dec-06 8743 10864 -2121 2121 1520 4354735 24% 17%
46 Jan-07 10419 10388 31 31 1483 4245890 0% 16%
47 Feb-07 8801 10817 -2016 2016 1496 4241413 23% 17%
48 Mar-07 8631 11667 -3036 3036 1532 4359818 35% 17%
49 Apr-07 9682 11372 -1690 1690 1536 4324818 17% 17%
50 May-07 9052 9546 -494 494 1512 4232073 5% 17%
51 Jun-07 11477 9241 2236 2236 1528 4249107 19% 17%
52 Jul-07 8242 9508 -1266 1266 1523 4191583 15% 17%
53 Aug-07 7674 9192 -1518 1518 1523 4151456 20% 17%
54 Sep-07 10339 9285 1054 1054 1513 4088095 10% 17%
55 Oct-07 13919 9508 4411 4411 1572 4401702 32% 17%
56 Nov-07 10531 9633 898 898 1558 4329811 9% 17%
57 Dec-07 8435 10007 -1572 1572 1559 4293388 19% 17%
58 Jan-08 9750 9544 206 206 1533 4211636 2% 17%
59 Feb-08 8477 10078 -1601 1601 1534 4180505 19% 17%
60 Mar-08 9814 10811 -997 997 1524 4121502 10% 16%
61 Apr-08 10684 10758 -74 74 1498 4046667 1% 16%
62 May-08 11693 9529 2164 2164 1510 4058046 19% 16%
63 Jun-08 14439 9322 5117 5117 1573 4446139 35% 17%
64 Jul-08 9081 10001 -920 920 1562 4384070 10% 16%
65 Aug-08 9781 10272 -491 491 1543 4313845 5% 16%
66 Sep-08 10307 10968 -661 661 1529 4249238 6% 16%
67 Oct-08 14800 11307 3493 3493 1561 4379650 24% 16%
68 Nov-08 7960 11592 -3632 3632 1594 4521786 46% 17%
69 Dec-08 6858 11412 -4554 4554 1641 4779146 66% 17%
70 Jan-09 9438 10086 -648 648 1626 4711024 7% 17%
71 Feb-09 8487 10307 -1820 1820 1629 4689528 21% 17%
72 Mar-09 10609 10268 341 341 1609 4620241 3% 17%
73 Apr-09 11282 10092 1190 1190 1603 4572423 11% 17%
74 May-09 12870 8465 4405 4405 1644 4790547 34% 17%
75 Jun-09 17811 9026 8785 8785 1748 5839603 49% 18%
76 Jul-09 12128 10424 1704 1704 1747 5797679 14% 18%
77 Aug-09 10161 11212 -1051 1051 1737 5731583 10% 18%
78 Sep-09 16359 12352 4007 4007 1769 5874968 24% 18%
79 Oct-09 17796 13160 4636 4636 1808 6088961 26% 18%
80 Nov-09 11604 14085 -2481 2481 1817 6089855 21% 18%
81 Dec-09 11517 14496 -2979 2979 1833 6127010 26% 18%
82 Jan-10 15925 13196 2729 2729 1844 6144363 17% 18%
83 Feb-10 13532 13701 -169 169 1823 6064936 1% 18%
84 Mar-10 14648 14928 -280 280 1803 5988184 2% 18%
85 Apr-10 15697 14302 1395 1395 1798 5937002 9% 17%
86 May-10 16653 13167 3486 3486 1819 6014730 21% 18%
87 Jun-10 15411 14040 1371 1371 1813 5963669 9% 17%
88 Jul-10 13534 15124 -1590 1590 1811 5921783 12% 17%
89 Aug-10 12454 14835 -2381 2381 1818 5918740 19% 17%
90 Sep-10 16300 15178 1122 1122 1809 5863263 7% 17%
91 Oct-10 23378 15281 8097 8097 1883 6565594 35% 17%
92 Nov-10 16975 15450 1525 1525 1879 6516294 9% 17%
93 Dec-10 15135 15361 -226 226 1860 6441981 1% 17%
94 Jan-11 19430 15614 3816 3816 1882 6534257 20% 17%
95 Feb-11 17534 16684 850 850 1871 6468959 5% 17%
96 Mar-11 17822 18304 -482 482 1855 6399665 3% 17%
97 Apr-11 17740 18898 -1158 1158 1848 6344081 7% 17%
98 May-11 17952 17201 751 751 1836 6281247 4% 17%
99 Jun-11 21552 17381 4171 4171 1861 6400803 19% 17%
100 Jul-11 15699 18391 -2692 2692 1870 6409812 17% 17%
101 Aug-11 15059 17997 -2938 2938 1881 6433190 20% 17%
102 Sep-11 23508 18026 5482 5482 1918 6679185 23% 17%
103 Oct-11 30519 18244 12275 12275 2025 8163600 40% 17%
104 Nov-11 16175 19094 -2919 2919 2034 8167259 18% 17%
105 Dec-11 15315 19799 -4484 4484 2059 8287859 29% 17%
106 Jan-12 17950 19178 -1228 1228 2051 8220067 7% 17%
107 Feb-12 13534 20337 -6803 6803 2098 8596893 50% 17%
108 Mar-12 15054 21606 -6552 6552 2141 8933455 44% 18%
109 Apr-12 20058
110 May-12 20058
111 Jun-12 20058
112 Jul-12 20058
113 Aug-12 20058
114 Sep-12 20058
115 Oct-12 20058
116 Nov-12 20058
117 Dec-12 20058
118 Jan-13 20058
119 Feb-13 20058
120 Mar-13 20058
TS(t)
35000
30000
25000
20000
1.00
15000
2.00
2.76 10000
3.70
4.65 5000
5.68
6.03 0
6.95
8.04
6.56
5.14 TS(t)
5.68 40
7.59
35
8.58
30
8.03
8.72 25
9.06 20
9.61 15
9.42 10
10.29
5
11.69
0
11.34
10.87
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
11.64
14.04
14.83
13.61
14.31
13.91
13.61
14.29
15.11
16.82
16.99
15.56
16.51
18.86
19.18
17.58
18.04
16.54
14.16
13.03
12.91
14.23
13.45
12.46
13.24
15.54
16.25
15.24
15.64
14.58
14.02
14.22
15.54
18.17
17.71
17.60
17.34
19.22
16.53
13.29
13.02
11.87
12.23
13.02
15.37
19.49
20.47
19.98
21.89
23.98
22.49
20.68
22.03
22.20
22.29
23.12
24.77
25.60
24.77
23.36
24.09
27.44
28.31
28.48
30.17
30.81
30.81
30.31
30.92
32.74
31.15
29.40
31.68
36.07
34.48
31.88
31.41
27.47
23.85
#
6
5
4
3
2
1
MMFD
21
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
Month Weights
Immediate past month 0.285714
Immediate past month - 1 month 0.238095
Immediate past month - 2 months 0.190476
Immediate past month - 3 months 0.142857
Immediate past month - 4 months 0.095238
Immediate past month - 5 months 0.047619
Period Month MMFD Level(t) Forecast(t)Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error
0 11302
1 Apr-03 4698 10971 11302 -6604 6604 6604 43608291 141%
2 May-03 4605 10653 10971 -6366 6366 6485 42070145 138%
3 Jun-03 4859 10363 10653 -5794 5794 6255 39237491 119%
4 Jul-03 4136 10052 10363 -6227 6227 6248 39123381 151%
5 Aug-03 3872 9743 10052 -6180 6180 6234 38937360 160%
6 Sep-03 5938 9553 9743 -3805 3805 5829 34860890 64%
7 Oct-03 8790 9515 9553 -763 763 5106 29963889 9%
8 Nov-03 6825 9380 9515 -2690 2690 4804 27122696 39%
9 Dec-03 4858 9154 9380 -4522 4522 4772 26381308 93%
10 Jan-04 5907 8992 9154 -3247 3247 4620 24797530 55%
11 Feb-04 6386 8861 8992 -2606 2606 4437 23160465 41%
12 Mar-04 9085 8873 8861 224 224 4086 21234591 2%
13 Apr-04 6492 8754 8873 -2381 2381 3955 20037110 37%
14 May-04 6832 8658 8754 -1922 1922 3809 18869638 28%
15 Jun-04 8867 8668 8658 209 209 3569 17614588 2%
16 Jul-04 4998 8484 8668 -3670 3670 3576 17355474 73%
17 Aug-04 5305 8326 8484 -3179 3179 3552 16929218 60%
18 Sep-04 7618 8290 8326 -708 708 3394 16016515 9%
19 Oct-04 11443 8448 8290 3153 3153 3382 15696728 28%
20 Nov-04 8716 8461 8448 268 268 3226 14915489 3%
21 Dec-04 6119 8344 8461 -2342 2342 3184 14466458 38%
22 Jan-05 7408 8297 8344 -936 936 3082 13848721 13%
23 Feb-05 7493 8257 8297 -804 804 2983 13274727 11%
24 Mar-05 8541 8271 8257 284 284 2870 12724973 3%
25 Apr-05 8029 8259 8271 -242 242 2765 12218321 3%
26 May-05 8650 8279 8259 391 391 2674 11754262 5%
27 Jun-05 9960 8363 8279 1681 1681 2637 11423615 17%
28 Jul-05 7152 8302 8363 -1211 1211 2586 11067983 17%
29 Aug-05 7322 8253 8302 -980 980 2531 10719461 13%
30 Sep-05 9239 8302 8253 986 986 2479 10394538 11%
31 Oct-05 14123 8594 8302 5821 5821 2587 11152078 41%
32 Nov-05 9566 8642 8594 972 972 2537 10833130 10%
33 Dec-05 7341 8577 8642 -1301 1301 2499 10556155 18%
34 Jan-06 9404 8618 8577 827 827 2450 10265792 9%
35 Feb-06 8613 8618 8618 -5 5 2380 9972484 0%
36 Mar-06 9425 8659 8618 807 807 2336 9713554 9%
37 Apr-06 10905 8771 8659 2246 2246 2334 9587424 21%
38 May-06 9842 8824 8771 1071 1071 2301 9365318 11%
39 Jun-06 12259 8996 8824 3435 3435 2330 9427658 28%
40 Jul-06 9285 9011 8996 289 289 2279 9194053 3%
41 Aug-06 7950 8958 9011 -1061 1061 2249 8997242 13%
42 Sep-06 11482 9084 8958 2524 2524 2256 8934758 22%
43 Oct-06 15817 9420 9084 6733 6733 2360 9781312 43%
44 Nov-06 10288 9464 9420 868 868 2326 9576116 8%
45 Dec-06 8743 9428 9464 -721 721 2290 9374859 8%
46 Jan-07 10419 9477 9428 991 991 2262 9192418 10%
47 Feb-07 8801 9444 9477 -676 676 2228 9006566 8%
48 Mar-07 8631 9403 9444 -813 813 2199 8832683 9%
49 Apr-07 9682 9417 9403 279 279 2160 8654014 3%
50 May-07 9052 9399 9417 -365 365 2124 8483596 4%
51 Jun-07 11477 9503 9399 2078 2078 2123 8401952 18%
52 Jul-07 8242 9439 9503 -1261 1261 2106 8270932 15%
53 Aug-07 7674 9351 9439 -1765 1765 2100 8173687 23%
54 Sep-07 10339 9401 9351 988 988 2079 8040391 10%
55 Oct-07 13919 9627 9401 4518 4518 2123 8265401 32%
56 Nov-07 10531 9672 9627 904 904 2102 8132413 9%
57 Dec-07 8435 9610 9672 -1237 1237 2087 8016573 15%
58 Jan-08 9750 9617 9610 140 140 2053 7878695 1%
59 Feb-08 8477 9560 9617 -1140 1140 2037 7767181 13%
60 Mar-08 9814 9573 9560 254 254 2008 7638804 3%
61 Apr-08 10684 9628 9573 1111 1111 1993 7533827 10%
62 May-08 11693 9731 9628 2065 2065 1994 7481078 18%
63 Jun-08 14439 9967 9731 4708 4708 2037 7714096 33%
64 Jul-08 9081 9923 9967 -886 886 2019 7605824 10%
65 Aug-08 9781 9915 9923 -142 142 1990 7489119 1%
66 Sep-08 10307 9935 9915 392 392 1966 7377971 4%
67 Oct-08 14800 10178 9935 4865 4865 2009 7621106 33%
68 Nov-08 7960 10067 10178 -2218 2218 2013 7581394 28%
69 Dec-08 6858 9907 10067 -3209 3209 2030 7620794 47%
70 Jan-09 9438 9883 9907 -469 469 2008 7515066 5%
71 Feb-09 8487 9814 9883 -1396 1396 1999 7436686 16%
72 Mar-09 10609 9853 9814 795 795 1982 7342185 7%
73 Apr-09 11282 9925 9853 1429 1429 1975 7269565 13%
74 May-09 12870 10072 9925 2945 2945 1988 7288545 23%
75 Jun-09 17811 10459 10072 7739 7739 2064 7989909 43%
76 Jul-09 12128 10542 10459 1669 1669 2059 7921430 14%
77 Aug-09 10161 10523 10542 -381 381 2037 7820444 4%
78 Sep-09 16359 10815 10523 5836 5836 2086 8156774 36%
79 Oct-09 17796 11164 10815 6981 6981 2148 8670383 39%
80 Nov-09 11604 11186 11164 440 440 2127 8564420 4%
81 Dec-09 11517 11203 11186 331 331 2105 8460038 3%
82 Jan-10 15925 11439 11203 4722 4722 2137 8628813 30%
83 Feb-10 13532 11544 11439 2093 2093 2136 8577638 15%
84 Mar-10 14648 11699 11544 3104 3104 2148 8590259 21%
85 Apr-10 15697 11899 11699 3998 3998 2169 8677268 25%
86 May-10 16653 12136 11899 4754 4754 2199 8839204 29%
87 Jun-10 15411 12300 12136 3275 3275 2212 8860859 21%
88 Jul-10 13534 12362 12300 1234 1234 2201 8777468 9%
89 Aug-10 12454 12366 12362 92 92 2177 8678941 1%
90 Sep-10 16300 12563 12366 3934 3934 2196 8754432 24%
91 Oct-10 23378 13104 12563 10815 10815 2291 9943529 46%
92 Nov-10 16975 13297 13104 3871 3871 2308 9998338 23%
93 Dec-10 15135 13389 13297 1838 1838 2303 9927138 12%
94 Jan-11 19430 13691 13389 6041 6041 2343 10209726 31%
95 Feb-11 17534 13883 13691 3843 3843 2359 10257690 22%
96 Mar-11 17822 14080 13883 3939 3939 2375 10312424 22%
97 Apr-11 17740 14263 14080 3660 3660 2389 10344181 21%
98 May-11 17952 14448 14263 3689 3689 2402 10377466 21%
99 Jun-11 21552 14803 14448 7104 7104 2449 10782440 33%
100 Jul-11 15699 14848 14803 896 896 2434 10682644 6%
101 Aug-11 15059 14858 14848 211 211 2412 10577317 1%
102 Sep-11 23508 15291 14858 8650 8650 2473 11207111 37%
103 Oct-11 30519 16052 15291 15228 15228 2597 13349730 50%
104 Nov-11 16175 16058 16052 123 123 2573 13221512 1%
105 Dec-11 15315 16021 16058 -743 743 2556 13100856 5%
106 Jan-12 17950 16118 16021 1929 1929 2550 13012360 11%
107 Feb-12 13534 15988 16118 -2584 2584 2550 12953134 19%
108 Mar-12 15054 15942 15988 -934 934 2535 12841284 6%
109 Apr-12 15942
110 May-12 15942
111 Jun-12 15942
112 Jul-12 15942
113 Aug-12 15942
114 Sep-12 15942
115 Oct-12 15942
116 Nov-12 15942
117 Dec-12 15942
118 Jan-13 15942
119 Feb-13 15942
120 Mar-13 15942
MAPE(t) TS(t)
12000000 2500
10000000
2000
8000000
MSE
14000000 3000
37% -15.80 12000000 2500
36% -16.36
10000000
36% -16.13 2000
35% -16.68 8000000
34% -17.27 1500
6000000
34% -17.46
1000
33% -17.92 4000000
33% -16.95 2000000 500
33% -17.68
0 0
32% -18.58
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05
32% -18.29
32% -15.78
32% -15.51
31% -16.22
31% -16.41
30% -17.10
30% -17.22
30% -16.79
29% -15.75
30% -13.10
29% -13.66
29% -13.93
28% -13.90
28% -11.18
28% -12.27
29% -13.74
28% -14.13
28% -14.89
28% -14.61
28% -13.94
28% -12.37
28% -8.16
28% -7.37
27% -7.64
27% -4.66
28% -1.28
27% -1.09
27% -0.94
27% 1.28
27% 2.26
27% 3.70
27% 5.50
27% 7.59
27% 9.03
27% 9.63
26% 9.78
26% 11.49
26% 15.73
26% 17.29
26% 18.13
26% 20.40
26% 21.89
26% 23.40
26% 24.80
26% 26.20
26% 28.59
26% 29.14
26% 29.50
26% 32.26
26% 36.59
26% 36.98
26% 36.94
26% 37.78
25% 36.76
25% 36.61
MMFD
Forecast(t)
PRESENCE OF
TREND
TS(t)
46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 1 0 3 10 6
0.35
21%
MAD MA
3000 30%
2500 25%
2000 20%
MAD MA
3000 30%
2500 25%
2000 20%
1500 15%
1000 10%
500 5%
0 0%
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15
MAPE
MAPE
4% 4% -1.00 35000
9% 6% -2.00
30000
6% 6% -3.00
27% 11% -4.00 25000
39% 17% -5.00
8% 15% -4.64 20000
36% 18% 0.13
15000
16% 18% 1.20
20% 18% 0.23 10000
1% 17% 0.19
5% 15% 0.54 5000
32% 17% 3.23
2% 16% 3.62 0
6% 15% 4.19
26% 16% 6.07
34% 17% 4.24
28% 18% 2.75
9% 17% 3.45
38% 18% 6.51
18% 18% 7.66
19% 18% 6.75 TS(t)
0% 17% 7.08
0% 17% 7.36 25.00
10% 16% 8.21 20.00
3% 16% 8.71 15.00
9% 16% 9.52 10.00
20% 16% 10.99
5.00
14% 16% 10.16
0.00
13% 16% 9.39
9% 15% 10.25 -5.00 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
40% 16% 13.57 -10.00
10% 16% 14.45 -15.00
19% 16% 13.28
-20.00
6% 16% 13.95
4% 15% 13.95
4% 15% 14.52
16% 15% 15.78
5% 15% 16.46
23% 15% 18.21
3% 15% 18.33
22% 15% 16.68
15% 15% 17.91
37% 15% 20.90
2% 15% 21.48
16% 15% 20.34
1% 15% 20.85
18% 15% 19.49
22% 15% 17.83
10% 15% 17.18
19% 15% 15.75
5% 15% 16.38
33% 15% 13.92
45% 16% 10.95
9% 16% 10.34
18% 16% 12.05
9% 16% 11.41
38% 16% 8.87
20% 16% 7.40
40% 16% 4.88
22% 17% 3.35
13% 16% 2.39
4% 16% 2.06
15% 16% 3.51
37% 17% 1.15
28% 17% -0.73
23% 17% -2.30
14% 17% -0.96
62% 17% -4.11
90% 19% -7.74
39% 19% -9.84
56% 19% -12.40
26% 19% -13.92
20% 19% -15.16
6% 19% -15.72
23% 19% -13.11
14% 19% -14.12
38% 19% -16.07
14% 19% -14.75
20% 19% -12.59
24% 19% -14.02
26% 20% -15.54
8% 19% -14.86
9% 19% -15.57
1% 19% -15.85
5% 19% -15.54
9% 19% -14.67
1% 19% -14.70
13% 19% -15.71
24% 19% -17.27
5% 18% -16.96
33% 19% -12.13
7% 18% -11.53
5% 18% -12.03
17% 18% -10.06
8% 18% -9.33
9% 18% -8.49
8% 18% -7.77
8% 18% -6.99
23% 18% -4.20
7% 18% -4.79
12% 18% -5.78
28% 18% -2.17
44% 18% 4.69
7% 18% 4.18
13% 18% 3.15
3% 18% 3.41
30% 18% 1.34
18% 18% 0.00
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
TS(t)
40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 1 0 6
Period Month MMFD Level(t) Trend(t) Forecast(t Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t)
0 4773 120
1 Apr-03 4698 4883 119 4892 -194 194 194 37811
2 May-03 4605 4982 118 5002 -397 397 296 97726
3 Jun-03 4859 5088 118 5101 -242 242 278 84593
4 Jul-03 4136 5153 115 5206 -1070 1070 476 349749
5 Aug-03 3872 5198 112 5268 -1396 1396 660 669384
6 Sep-03 5938 5341 113 5309 629 629 655 623666
7 Oct-03 8790 5621 121 5454 3336 3336 1038 2124415
8 Nov-03 6825 5796 124 5742 1083 1083 1043 2005404
9 Dec-03 4858 5867 122 5921 -1063 1063 1045 1908031
10 Jan-04 5907 5985 121 5989 -82 82 949 1717899
11 Feb-04 6386 6120 122 6106 280 280 888 1568846
12 Mar-04 9085 6384 129 6242 2843 2843 1051 2111586
13 Apr-04 6492 6512 129 6513 -21 21 972 1949191
14 May-04 6832 6651 130 6641 191 191 916 1812558
15 Jun-04 8867 6885 135 6780 2087 2087 994 1981960
16 Jul-04 4998 6918 130 7020 -2022 2022 1058 2113505
17 Aug-04 5305 6961 125 7048 -1743 1743 1099 2167927
18 Sep-04 7618 7113 127 7086 532 532 1067 2063189
19 Oct-04 11443 7450 137 7240 4203 4203 1232 2884518
20 Nov-04 8716 7643 140 7587 1129 1129 1227 2804028
21 Dec-04 6119 7700 136 7783 -1664 1664 1248 2802421
22 Jan-05 7408 7815 135 7836 -428 428 1211 2683367
23 Feb-05 7493 7927 134 7949 -456 456 1178 2575755
24 Mar-05 8541 8084 135 8060 481 481 1149 2478064
25 Apr-05 8029 8210 134 8219 -190 190 1110 2380386
26 May-05 8650 8359 135 8344 306 306 1079 2292436
27 Jun-05 9960 8568 139 8494 1466 1466 1094 2287089
28 Jul-05 7152 8629 135 8706 -1554 1554 1110 2291703
29 Aug-05 7322 8692 131 8764 -1442 1442 1122 2284342
30 Sep-05 9239 8844 132 8823 416 416 1098 2213971
31 Oct-05 14123 9233 145 8976 5147 5147 1229 2997129
32 Nov-05 9566 9388 146 9379 187 187 1196 2904567
33 Dec-05 7341 9424 140 9534 -2193 2193 1226 2962229
34 Jan-06 9404 9556 140 9564 -160 160 1195 2875858
35 Feb-06 8613 9642 137 9696 -1083 1083 1192 2827197
36 Mar-06 9425 9761 136 9779 -354 354 1169 2752142
37 Apr-06 10905 9948 139 9897 1008 1008 1164 2705201
38 May-06 9842 10074 138 10086 -244 244 1140 2635585
39 Jun-06 12259 10315 143 10212 2047 2047 1163 2675410
40 Jul-06 9285 10399 140 10458 -1173 1173 1163 2642917
41 Aug-06 7950 10410 134 10540 -2590 2590 1198 2742011
42 Sep-06 11482 10591 136 10544 938 938 1192 2697679
43 Oct-06 15817 10981 149 10727 5090 5090 1283 3237466
44 Nov-06 10288 11088 147 11130 -842 842 1273 3180013
45 Dec-06 8743 11110 141 11235 -2492 2492 1300 3247349
46 Jan-07 10419 11209 138 11251 -832 832 1290 3191802
47 Feb-07 8801 11220 132 11348 -2547 2547 1316 3261899
48 Mar-07 8631 11217 125 11353 -2722 2722 1346 3348258
49 Apr-07 9682 11259 121 11342 -1660 1660 1352 3336151
50 May-07 9052 11264 115 11380 -2328 2328 1372 3377818
51 Jun-07 11477 11384 116 11379 98 98 1347 3311775
52 Jul-07 8242 11337 107 11499 -3257 3257 1383 3452137
53 Aug-07 7674 11255 98 11444 -3770 3770 1428 3655164
54 Sep-07 10339 11303 95 11353 -1014 1014 1421 3606534
55 Oct-07 13919 11524 102 11398 2521 2521 1441 3656495
56 Nov-07 10531 11571 99 11626 -1095 1095 1435 3612612
57 Dec-07 8435 11509 91 11670 -3235 3235 1466 3732870
58 Jan-08 9750 11507 86 11599 -1849 1849 1473 3727486
59 Feb-08 8477 11438 79 11593 -3116 3116 1501 3828912
60 Mar-08 9814 11431 74 11516 -1702 1702 1504 3813381
61 Apr-08 10684 11464 72 11505 -821 821 1493 3761923
62 May-08 11693 11544 73 11536 157 157 1471 3701642
63 Jun-08 14439 11758 80 11617 2822 2822 1493 3769307
64 Jul-08 9081 11700 73 11838 -2757 2757 1512 3829146
65 Aug-08 9781 11673 68 11773 -1992 1992 1520 3831257
66 Sep-08 10307 11669 64 11741 -1434 1434 1519 3804356
67 Oct-08 14800 11887 72 11733 3067 3067 1542 3887940
68 Nov-08 7960 11759 62 11959 -3999 3999 1578 4065887
69 Dec-08 6858 11572 49 11821 -4963 4963 1627 4363866
70 Jan-09 9438 11513 44 11622 -2184 2184 1635 4369658
71 Feb-09 8487 11403 36 11557 -3070 3070 1655 4440831
72 Mar-09 10609 11398 34 11440 -831 831 1644 4388734
73 Apr-09 11282 11425 34 11432 -150 150 1623 4328924
74 May-09 12870 11529 37 11459 1411 1411 1620 4297341
75 Jun-09 17811 11879 53 11567 6244 6244 1682 4759933
76 Jul-09 12128 11942 54 11932 196 196 1662 4697808
77 Aug-09 10161 11904 49 11995 -1834 1834 1665 4680492
78 Sep-09 16359 12173 60 11952 4407 4407 1700 4869428
79 Oct-09 17796 12511 74 12233 5563 5563 1749 5199558
80 Nov-09 11604 12536 71 12585 -981 981 1739 5146588
81 Dec-09 11517 12553 69 12607 -1090 1090 1731 5097722
82 Jan-10 15925 12787 77 12621 3304 3304 1750 5168655
83 Feb-10 13532 12897 79 12863 669 669 1737 5111767
84 Mar-10 14648 13059 83 12976 1672 1672 1736 5084213
85 Apr-10 15697 13270 89 13142 2555 2555 1746 5101203
86 May-10 16653 13524 97 13359 3294 3294 1764 5168065
87 Jun-10 15411 13710 102 13621 1790 1790 1764 5145491
88 Jul-10 13534 13798 101 13812 -278 278 1747 5087901
89 Aug-10 12454 13827 98 13900 -1446 1446 1744 5054216
90 Sep-10 16300 14044 104 13925 2375 2375 1751 5060733
91 Oct-10 23378 14609 127 14147 9231 9231 1833 5941459
92 Nov-10 16975 14847 132 14735 2240 2240 1838 5931399
93 Dec-10 15135 14987 133 14980 155 155 1820 5867880
94 Jan-11 19430 15335 143 15120 4310 4310 1846 6003081
95 Feb-11 17534 15582 149 15479 2055 2055 1848 5984353
96 Mar-11 17822 15835 154 15730 2092 2092 1851 5967602
97 Apr-11 17740 16076 158 15988 1752 1752 1850 5937711
98 May-11 17952 16320 162 16234 1718 1718 1848 5907237
99 Jun-11 21552 16736 175 16482 5070 5070 1881 6107175
100 Jul-11 15699 16850 172 16911 -1212 1212 1874 6060791
101 Aug-11 15059 16924 167 17022 -1963 1963 1875 6038950
102 Sep-11 23508 17412 183 17091 6417 6417 1920 6383405
103 Oct-11 30519 18242 215 17595 12924 12924 2027 7942986
104 Nov-11 16175 18343 210 18457 -2282 2282 2029 7916685
105 Dec-11 15315 18391 202 18553 -3238 3238 2040 7941125
106 Jan-12 17950 18560 200 18593 -643 643 2027 7870103
107 Feb-12 13534 18499 187 18760 -5226 5226 2057 8051843
108 Mar-12 15054 18505 178 18686 -3632 3632 2072 8099444
109 Apr-12 18683
110 May-12 18860
111 Jun-12 19038
112 Jul-12 19216
113 Aug-12 19394
114 Sep-12 19572
115 Oct-12 19750
116 Nov-12 19928
117 Dec-12 20106
118 Jan-13 20284
119 Feb-13 20462
120 Mar-13 20640
% error MAPE(t) TS(t)
4% 4% -1.00 35000
9% 6% -2.00
30000
5% 6% -3.00
26% 11% -4.00 25000
36% 16% -5.00
11% 15% -4.08 20000
38% 18% 0.64
15000
16% 18% 1.68
22% 18% 0.66 10000
1% 17% 0.64
4% 16% 0.99 5000
31% 17% 3.55
0% 16% 3.81 0
3% 15% 4.25
24% 15% 6.02
40% 17% 3.74
33% 18% 2.02 Alpha 0.05
7% 17% 2.58 Beta 0.05
37% 18% 5.64
13% 18% 6.59
27% 18% 5.14 TS(t)
6% 18% 4.95
6% 17% 4.70 25.00
6% 17% 5.23 20.00
2% 16% 5.24 15.00
4% 16% 5.68 10.00
15% 16% 6.94 5.00
22% 16% 5.44 0.00
20% 16% 4.10 -5.00 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55
5% 16% 4.57 -10.00
36% 16% 8.27 -15.00
2% 16% 8.65 -20.00
30% 16% 6.65
-25.00
2% 16% 6.69
13% 16% 5.80 Data Table
4% 15% 5.61 Alpha 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
9% 15% 6.50 MAD 2072
2% 15% 6.42 MSE 8099444
17% 15% 8.06 MAPE 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
13% 15% 7.05
33% 15% 4.68
8% 15% 5.49 MSE
32% 16% 9.07 9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
MSE
9000000
8% 15% 8.48
8000000
29% 16% 6.39
7000000
8% 16% 5.79
6000000
29% 16% 3.74
32% 16% 1.64 5000000
17% 16% 0.40 4000000
26% 16% -1.30 3000000
1% 16% -1.25 2000000
40% 17% -3.58 1000000
49% 17% -6.10 0
10% 17% -6.85 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
18% 17% -5.00
10% 17% -5.79
38% 17% -7.87 Data Table
19% 17% -9.09 Beta 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
37% 18% -11.00 MAD 2072
17% 18% -12.11 MSE 8099444
8% 17% -12.75 MAPE 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
1% 17% -12.83
20% 17% -10.75
30% 17% -12.43
MSE
20% 18% -13.69 9000000
14% 17% -14.64 8000000
21% 17% -12.43 7000000
50% 18% -14.68 6000000
72% 19% -17.29
5000000
23% 19% -18.54
4000000
36% 19% -20.17
3000000
8% 19% -20.82
1% 19% -21.17 2000000
11% 19% -20.34 1000000
35% 19% -15.88 0
2% 19% -15.95 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
18% 19% -17.03
27% 19% -14.08
31% 19% -10.51
8% 19% -11.13
9% 19% -11.81
21% 19% -9.79
5% 18% -9.48
11% 18% -8.52
16% 18% -7.01
20% 18% -5.07
12% 18% -4.06
2% 18% -4.26
12% 18% -5.09
15% 18% -3.72
39% 18% 1.48
13% 18% 2.70
1% 18% 2.81
22% 18% 5.11
12% 18% 6.21
12% 18% 7.33
10% 18% 8.28
10% 18% 9.22
24% 18% 11.76
8% 18% 11.15
13% 18% 10.10
27% 18% 13.21
42% 18% 18.89
14% 18% 17.74
21% 18% 16.05
4% 18% 15.84
39% 18% 13.07
24% 18% 11.23
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 10 3 10 6
0.3 0.35
18% 19%
MAD
2500
2000
MAD
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
18% 17%
MAD
18%
2500
18%
2000
18%
1500 18%
18%
1000
17%
500 17%
17%
0
0.05 0
0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
MAPE
19%
19%
18%
18%
MAPE
19%
19%
18%
18%
18%
18%
18%
17%
17%
17%
17%
25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
MAPE
18%
18%
18%
18%
18%
17%
17%
17%
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.80473
R Square 0.64759
Adjusted R 0.644265
Standard E 2780.982
Observatio 108
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.51E+09 1.51E+09 194.7858 9.419E-26
Residual 106 8.2E+08 7733861
Total 107 2.33E+09
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 4772.652 538.9386 8.855652 2.098E-14 3704.154 5841.151 3704.154 5841.151
X Variable 119.7983 8.583646 13.95657 9.419E-26 102.7803 136.8162 102.7803 136.8162
Month Period MMFD Deseasonal Deseasone Deseasonal Seasonal Est Forecast
ized d Trend ized Factor Seasonal (Ft)
Demand (Static) Demand Factor
(Level)
0 4862 118
Apr-03 1 4698 4980 0.94 0.99 4953
May-03 2 4605 5098 0.90 1.01 5129
Jun-03 3 4859 5215 0.93 1.18 6179
Jul-03 4 4136 5333 0.78 0.84 4478
Aug-03 5 3872 5451 0.71 0.79 4301
Sep-03 6 5938 5569 1.07 1.09 6050
Oct-03 7 8790 5905 5686 1.55 1.48 8436
Nov-03 8 6825 6072 5804 1.18 0.99 5736
Dec-03 9 4858 6332 5922 0.82 0.81 4775
Jan-04 10 5907 6535 6039 0.98 0.99 6008
Feb-04 11 6386 6631 6157 1.04 0.89 5463
Mar-04 12 9085 6760 6275 1.45 1.00 6265
Apr-04 13 6492 6941 6393 1.02 6358
May-04 14 6832 7130 6510 1.05 6551
Jun-04 15 8867 7261 6628 1.34 7853
Jul-04 16 4998 7377 6746 0.74 5664
Aug-04 17 5305 7485 6864 0.77 5416
Sep-04 18 7618 7509 6981 1.09 7585
Oct-04 19 11443 7550 7099 1.61 10532
Nov-04 20 8716 7690 7217 1.21 7132
Dec-04 21 6119 7811 7335 0.83 5914
Jan-05 22 7408 7946 7452 0.99 7413
Feb-05 23 7493 8120 7570 0.99 6716
Mar-05 24 8541 8272 7688 1.11 7675
Apr-05 25 8029 8451 7806 1.03 7764
May-05 26 8650 8598 7923 1.09 7973
Jun-05 27 9960 8684 8041 1.24 9526
Jul-05 28 7152 8819 8159 0.88 6850
Aug-05 29 7322 8948 8277 0.88 6531
Sep-05 30 9239 9032 8394 1.10 9121
Oct-05 31 14123 9189 8512 1.66 12629
Nov-05 32 9566 9358 8630 1.11 8528
Dec-05 33 7341 9503 8748 0.84 7054
Jan-06 34 9404 9688 8865 1.06 8819
Feb-06 35 8613 9803 8983 0.96 7969
Mar-06 36 9425 9923 9101 1.04 9086
Apr-06 37 10905 10087 9218 1.18 9169
May-06 38 9842 10188 9336 1.05 9394
Jun-06 39 12259 10276 9454 1.30 11200
Jul-06 40 9285 10377 9572 0.97 8037
Aug-06 41 7950 10427 9689 0.82 7645
Sep-06 42 11482 10402 9807 1.17 10656
Oct-06 43 15817 10318 9925 1.59 14725
Nov-06 44 10288 10234 10043 1.02 9924
Dec-06 45 8743 10168 10160 0.86 8193
Jan-07 46 10419 10092 10278 1.01 10224
Feb-07 47 8801 10037 10396 0.85 9223
Mar-07 48 8631 9978 10514 0.82 10497
Apr-07 49 9682 9851 10631 0.91 10574
May-07 50 9052 9782 10749 0.84 10816
Jun-07 51 11477 9780 10867 1.06 12874
Jul-07 52 8242 9739 10985 0.75 9223
Aug-07 53 7674 9698 11102 0.69 8760
Sep-07 54 10339 9733 11220 0.92 12191
Oct-07 55 13919 9824 11338 1.23 16821
Nov-07 56 10531 9976 11456 0.92 11321
Dec-07 57 8435 10210 11573 0.73 9332
Jan-08 58 9750 10368 11691 0.83 11629
Feb-08 59 8477 10491 11809 0.72 10476
Mar-08 60 9814 10577 11927 0.82 11907
Apr-08 61 10684 10613 12044 0.89 11980
May-08 62 11693 10542 12162 0.96 12238
Jun-08 63 14439 10369 12280 1.18 14548
Jul-08 64 9081 10291 12398 0.73 10409
Aug-08 65 9781 10278 12515 0.78 9875
Sep-08 66 10307 10312 12633 0.82 13726
Oct-08 67 14800 10370 12751 1.16 18917
Nov-08 68 7960 10444 12868 0.62 12717
Dec-08 69 6858 10633 12986 0.53 10472
Jan-09 70 9438 10901 13104 0.72 13035
Feb-09 71 8487 11043 13222 0.64 11730
Mar-09 72 10609 11311 13339 0.80 13318
Apr-09 73 11282 11688 13457 0.84 13385
May-09 74 12870 11965 13575 0.95 13659
Jun-09 75 17811 12311 13693 1.30 16222
Jul-09 76 12128 12775 13810 0.88 11596
Aug-09 77 10161 13256 13928 0.73 10990
Sep-09 78 16359 13634 14046 1.16 15261
Oct-09 79 17796 13987 14164 1.26 21013
Nov-09 80 11604 14328 14281 0.81 14113
Dec-09 81 11517 14386 14399 0.80 11611
Jan-10 82 15925 14345 14517 1.10 14440
Feb-10 83 13532 14499 14635 0.92 12983
Mar-10 84 14648 14592 14752 0.99 14728
Apr-10 85 15697 14822 14870 1.06 14790
May-10 86 16653 15278 14988 1.11 15081
Jun-10 87 15411 15653 15106 1.02 17896
Jul-10 88 13534 15950 15223 0.89 12782
Aug-10 89 12454 16262 15341 0.81 12105
Sep-10 90 16300 16561 15459 1.05 16796
Oct-10 91 23378 16779 15577 1.50 23110
Nov-10 92 16975 16918 15694 1.08 15509
Dec-10 93 15135 17228 15812 0.96 12750
Jan-11 94 19430 17574 15930 1.22 15846
Feb-11 95 17534 17773 16047 1.09 14237
Mar-11 96 17822 18182 16165 1.10 16139
Apr-11 97 17740 18780 16283 1.09 16196
May-11 98 17952 19044 16401 1.09 16503
Jun-11 99 21552 19018 16518 1.30 19570
Jul-11 100 15699 18964 16636 0.94 13968
Aug-11 101 15059 18735 16754 0.90 13219
Sep-11 102 23508 18453 16872 1.39 18331
Oct-11 103 30519 16989 1.80 25206
Nov-11 104 16175 17107 0.95 16906
Dec-11 105 15315 17225 0.89 13890
Jan-12 106 17950 17343 1.04 17251
Feb-12 107 13534 17460 0.78 15490
Mar-12 108 15054 17578 0.86 17550
Apr-12 109 17696 17601
May-12 110 17814 17924
Jun-12 111 17931 21244
Jul-12 112 18049 15155
Aug-12 113 18167 14334
Sep-12 114 18285 19867
Oct-12 115 18402 27302
Nov-12 116 18520 18302
Dec-12 117 18638 15029
Jan-13 118 18756 18657
Feb-13 119 18873 16744
Mar-13 120 18991 18960
Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error MAPE(t) TS(t)
TS(t)
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 10 0 1 0 3 10 6 1 0 9
MMFD
Deseasonalized Demand (Level)
Forecast (Ft)
TS(t)
4 9 7 10 0 1 0 3 10 6 1 0 9
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.93474936246238
R Square 0.873756370623825
Adjusted R 0.872413353290036
Standard E 1253.33291496101
Observatio 96
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.02E+09 1.02E+09 650.592 5.009E-44
Residual 94 1.48E+08 1570843
Total 95 1.17E+09
3000000
486221 1% 6% 17.78 MSE
484565 6% 6% 16.26
3500000
473946 1% 6% 16.39
470835 6% 6% 15.06 3000000
493205 14% 6% 11.98 2500000
649180 33% 7% 5.54
682793 16% 7% 2.58 2000000
770998 25% 7% -1.44 1500000
821568 16% 8% -4.39
1000000
833348 15% 8% -6.25
846492 16% 8% -8.09 500000
903184 19% 8% -10.80
0
1059645 22% 8% -14.52 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
1054995 8% 8% -15.72
1046627 9% 8% -16.78 Data Table
1072088 16% 8% -18.63 Beta 0.05 0.1 0.15
1105462 21% 9% -20.56 MAD 1314
1135323 17% 9% -22.38 MSE 3106702
1123418 6% 9% -23.29 MAPE 11% 11% 11%
1106707 3% 9% -23.12
1101544 6% 9% -21.87
1090070 7% 9% -22.75
MSE
1079608 7% 9% -21.93 3500000
1151459 23% 9% -24.35
3000000
1240724 18% 9% -26.84
1437637 48% 9% -29.97 2500000
1505861 36% 10% -32.01 2000000
1535834 20% 10% -33.63
1500000
1553338 20% 10% -35.09
1540832 8% 10% -36.04 1000000
1519725 0% 10% -36.54
500000
1528527 11% 10% -34.54
1743477 24% 10% -28.38 0
1794179 20% 10% -25.32 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0
1778465 8% 10% -24.57 Data Table
1908905 21% 10% -20.23 Gamma 0.05 0.1 0.15
1886356 2% 10% -20.76 MAD 1314
1867537 5% 10% -21.49 MSE 3106702
1878784 14% 10% -19.59 MAPE 11% 11% 11%
2016233 23% 10% -15.36
2051887 16% 11% -12.95
2058293 11% 11% -11.30 MSE
2113381 17% 11% -8.62
3500000
2204439 19% 11% -5.48
2190484 6% 11% -6.41 3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
MSE
3500000
3000000
2210041 15% 11% -4.52 2500000
2207835 11% 11% -3.20
2193013 6% 11% -2.34 2000000
2222643 9% 11% -0.30 1500000
2272972 15% 11% 2.06
1000000
2363394 22% 11% 4.90
2544102 23% 11% 8.52 500000
2664562 21% 11% 11.45
0
2672510 10% 11% 12.92 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
2671075 9% 11% 14.20
2661550 7% 11% 15.27
2664382 8% 11% 16.62
2658145 9% 11% 17.77
2653275 10% 11% 18.94
2836597 20% 11% 22.13
2975021 14% 11% 24.87
2980542 12% 11% 23.29
2954586 3% 11% 23.83
2930474 4% 11% 23.44
3001409 24% 11% 20.60
3106702 25% 11% 17.35
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
TS(t)
25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 1 0 3 1 0 6
9% 9% 8% 8%
MSE MAD
1400
1200
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.3
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
03 106
MAPE
12%
10%
MAPE
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
MAPE
12%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
MAPE
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
MAPE
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
5 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
Period Month MMFD Level(t) Trend(t) Seasonal Forecast(t0Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t)
Factor
0 4862 118
1 Apr-03 4698 4812 118 0.99 4953 -255 255 255
2 May-03 4605 4698 118 1.01 4960 -355 355 305
3 Jun-03 4859 4348 118 1.18 5705 -846 846 486
4 Jul-03 4136 4767 118 0.84 3749 387 387 461
5 Aug-03 3872 4900 118 0.79 3854 18 18 372
6 Sep-03 5938 5311 118 1.09 5451 487 487 391
7 Oct-03 8790 5754 118 1.48 8054 736 736 441
8 Nov-03 6825 6550 118 0.99 5802 1023 1023 513
9 Dec-03 4858 6246 118 0.81 5377 -519 519 514
10 Jan-04 5907 6085 118 0.99 6330 -423 423 505
11 Feb-04 6386 6855 118 0.89 5503 883 883 539
12 Mar-04 9085 8367 118 1.00 6962 2123 2123 671
13 Apr-04 6492 7201 118 0.99 8439 -1947 1947 769
14 May-04 6832 6972 118 1.01 7365 -533 533 752
15 Jun-04 8867 7349 118 1.18 8400 467 467 733
16 Jul-04 4998 6474 118 0.84 6269 -1271 1271 767
17 Aug-04 5305 6678 118 0.79 5201 104 104 728
18 Sep-04 7618 6937 118 1.09 7384 234 234 701
19 Oct-04 11443 7486 118 1.48 10467 976 976 715
20 Nov-04 8716 8401 118 0.99 7514 1202 1202 739
21 Dec-04 6119 7909 118 0.81 6869 -750 750 740
22 Jan-05 7408 7647 118 0.99 7984 -576 576 733
23 Feb-05 7493 8211 118 0.89 6888 605 605 727
24 Mar-05 8541 8477 118 1.00 8315 226 226 706
25 Apr-05 8029 8252 118 0.99 8549 -520 520 699
26 May-05 8650 8519 118 1.01 8422 228 228 681
27 Jun-05 9960 8486 118 1.18 10232 -272 272 665
28 Jul-05 7152 8547 118 0.84 7224 -72 72 644
29 Aug-05 7322 9068 118 0.79 6837 485 485 639
30 Sep-05 9239 8738 118 1.09 9981 -742 742 642
31 Oct-05 14123 9291 118 1.48 13139 984 984 653
32 Nov-05 9566 9586 118 0.99 9298 268 268 641
33 Dec-05 7341 9311 118 0.81 7825 -484 484 636
34 Jan-06 9404 9445 118 0.99 9379 25 25 618
35 Feb-06 8613 9658 118 0.89 8484 129 129 604
36 Mar-06 9425 9556 118 1.00 9760 -335 335 597
37 Apr-06 10905 10519 118 0.99 9622 1283 1283 615
38 May-06 9842 10076 118 1.01 10703 -861 861 622
39 Jun-06 12259 10295 118 1.18 12077 182 182 611
40 Jul-06 9285 10836 118 0.84 8743 542 542 609
41 Aug-06 7950 10378 118 0.79 8643 -693 693 611
42 Sep-06 11482 10543 118 1.09 11404 78 78 598
43 Oct-06 15817 10661 118 1.48 15816 1 1 584
44 Nov-06 10288 10537 118 0.99 10652 -364 364 579
45 Dec-06 8743 10778 118 0.81 8592 151 151 570
46 Jan-07 10419 10619 118 0.99 10838 -419 419 567
47 Feb-07 8801 10202 118 0.89 9526 -725 725 570
48 Mar-07 8631 9222 118 1.00 10303 -1672 1672 593
49 Apr-07 9682 9598 118 0.99 9290 392 392 589
50 May-07 9052 9244 118 1.01 9776 -724 724 592
51 Jun-07 11477 9575 118 1.18 11091 386 386 588
52 Jul-07 8242 9774 118 0.84 8139 103 103 578
53 Aug-07 7674 9783 118 0.79 7805 -131 131 570
54 Sep-07 10339 9648 118 1.09 10757 -418 418 567
55 Oct-07 13919 9514 118 1.48 14489 -570 570 567
56 Nov-07 10531 10303 118 0.99 9518 1013 1013 575
57 Dec-07 8435 10447 118 0.81 8403 32 32 565
58 Jan-08 9750 10065 118 0.99 10509 -759 759 569
59 Feb-08 8477 9771 118 0.89 9033 -556 556 569
60 Mar-08 9814 9850 118 1.00 9873 -59 59 560
61 Apr-08 10684 10475 118 0.99 9915 769 769 563
62 May-08 11693 11267 118 1.01 10659 1034 1034 571
63 Jun-08 14439 11911 118 1.18 13487 952 952 577
64 Jul-08 9081 11233 118 0.84 10100 -1019 1019 584
65 Aug-08 9781 12036 118 0.79 8956 825 825 588
66 Sep-08 10307 10405 118 1.09 13205 -2898 2898 623
67 Oct-08 14800 10164 118 1.48 15612 -812 812 626
68 Nov-08 7960 8822 118 0.99 10161 -2201 2201 649
69 Dec-08 6858 8655 118 0.81 7209 -351 351 644
70 Jan-09 9438 9241 118 0.99 8726 712 712 645
71 Feb-09 8487 9495 118 0.89 8303 184 184 639
72 Mar-09 10609 10277 118 1.00 9597 1012 1012 644
73 Apr-09 11282 11016 118 0.99 10339 943 943 648
74 May-09 12870 12220 118 1.01 11203 1667 1667 662
75 Jun-09 17811 14105 118 1.18 14617 3194 3194 696
76 Jul-09 12128 14368 118 0.84 11942 186 186 689
77 Aug-09 10161 13432 118 0.79 11430 -1269 1269 697
78 Sep-09 16359 14537 118 1.09 14722 1637 1637 709
79 Oct-09 17796 12911 118 1.48 21742 -3946 3946 750
80 Nov-09 11604 12186 118 0.99 12876 -1272 1272 756
81 Dec-09 11517 13601 118 0.81 9921 1596 1596 766
82 Jan-10 15925 15220 118 0.99 13646 2279 2279 785
83 Feb-10 13532 15282 118 0.89 13607 -75 75 776
84 Mar-10 14648 14923 118 1.00 15375 -727 727 776
85 Apr-10 15697 15526 118 0.99 14960 737 737 775
86 May-10 16653 16238 118 1.01 15741 912 912 777
87 Jun-10 15411 14161 118 1.18 19377 -3966 3966 814
88 Jul-10 13534 15485 118 0.84 11989 1545 1545 822
89 Aug-10 12454 15721 118 0.79 12311 143 143 814
90 Sep-10 16300 15290 118 1.09 17210 -910 910 815
91 Oct-10 23378 15637 118 1.48 22860 518 518 812
92 Nov-10 16975 16687 118 0.99 15569 1406 1406 818
93 Dec-10 15135 18092 118 0.81 13551 1584 1584 827
94 Jan-11 19430 19077 118 0.99 18114 1316 1316 832
95 Feb-11 17534 19568 118 0.89 17029 505 505 828
96 Mar-11 17822 18483 118 1.00 19654 -1832 1832 839
97 Apr-11 17740 18099 118 0.99 18501 -761 761 838
98 May-11 17952 17971 118 1.01 18330 -378 378 833
99 Jun-11 21552 18156 118 1.18 21430 122 122 826
100 Jul-11 15699 18551 118 0.84 15343 356 356 822
101 Aug-11 15059 18942 118 0.79 14731 328 328 817
102 Sep-11 23508 20748 118 1.09 20709 2799 2799 836
103 Oct-11 30519 20672 118 1.48 30957 -438 438 832
104 Nov-11 16175 17891 118 0.99 20545 -4370 4370 866
105 Dec-11 15315 18654 118 0.81 14522 793 793 866
106 Jan-12 17950 18295 118 0.99 18672 -722 722 864
107 Feb-12 13534 16343 118 0.89 16336 -2802 2802 882
108 Mar-12 15054 15555 118 1.00 16434 -1380 1380 887
109 Apr-12 0.99 15588
110 May-12 1.01 15888
111 Jun-12 1.18 18847
112 Jul-12 0.84 13456
113 Aug-12 0.79 12738
114 Sep-12 1.09 17668
115 Oct-12 1.48 24300
116 Nov-12 0.99 16302
117 Dec-12 0.81 13398
118 Jan-13 0.99 16644
119 Feb-13 0.89 14949
120 Mar-13 1.00 16940
MSE(t) % error MAPE(t) TS(t)
TS(t)
TS(t)
25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 1 0 3 1 0 6
MSE
TS(t)
03 106
Microsoft Excel 14.0 Sensitivity Report
Worksheet: [M&M_Analysis_KC.xlsx]Winters
Report Created: 9/26/2017 10:49:35 AM
Variable Cells
Final Reduced
Cell Name Value Gradient
$Q$19 Alpha 0.655499165 0
$Q$20 Beta 0 1356059.782
$Q$21 Gamma 0 770576.7008
Constraints
NONE
MAD(t) MSE(t) MAPE(t) TS(t) - Min TS(t) - Max
2a.3 month MA 2276 9565246 20% -2 19
2b.6 month MA 2101 8459256 17% 1 31
3.Simple Exponential smoothing 2535 12841284 25% -24 38
4a. Trend Adjusted (Static) 1993 7590642 18% -17 21
4b. Holts 2072 8099444 18% -21 19
5a. Trend and Season Adjusted (Static) 1295 3012302 12% -30 34
5b. Winters 1314 3106702 11% -37 25
5c. Winters Optimized 887 1518414 8% -9 6
MAD(t) MSE(t)
3000
12000000
2000
8000000
1000 4000000
0 0
TS(t) - Range
21 TS(t) - Range
30 60
40
62 20
0
39
40
64
61
15
MSE(t) MAPE(t)
30%
20%
10%
0%
)