M&M Analysis KC Shared

Methods
Static Vs Adaptive (Moving Avg, Exponential)

Extrapolative (Time Series) Vs Causal
Time Series (Static)
Additive L+T+S
MultiplicatL*T*S
Mixed (L+T)*S
Time Series (Adaptive)
Holts (L & T only No Seasonality)
Winter (L, T & S)
Period Month Industry MMFD
1 Apr-03 10281 4698
2 May-03 11683 4605
3 Jun-03 14042 4859 63000
4 Jul-03 10283 4136
5 Aug-03 9522 3872
6 Sep-03 14263 5938 53000
7 Oct-03 20264 8790
8 Nov-03 15778 6825
9 Dec-03 12758 4858
10 Jan-04 14297 5907 43000
11 Feb-04 17521 6386
12 Mar-04 24773 9085
13 Apr-04 15714 6492 33000
14 May-04 17352 6832
15 Jun-04 20901 8867
16 Jul-04 12065 4998
23000
17 Aug-04 13452 5305
18 Sep-04 22018 7618
19 Oct-04 27631 11443
20 Nov-04 21799 8716 13000
21 Dec-04 16209 6119
22 Jan-05 16249 7408
23 Feb-05 18867 7493 3000
24 Mar-05 23857 8541 Apr-03 Nov-03 Jun-04 Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul
25 Apr-05 16828 8029
26 May-05 19062 8650
27 Jun-05 22724 9960
28 Jul-05 15320 7152
29 Aug-05 10936 7322
30 Sep-05 21986 9239
31 Oct-05 30998 14123
32 Nov-05 22359 9566
33 Dec-05 20860 7341
34 Jan-06 24057 9404
35 Feb-06 23506 8613
36 Mar-06 27985 9425
37 Apr-06 24426 10905
38 May-06 24262 9842
39 Jun-06 29924 12259
40 Jul-06 21738 9285
41 Aug-06 20417 7950
42 Sep-06 33280 11482
43 Oct-06 35817 15817
44 Nov-06 26057 10288
45 Dec-06 23742 8743
46 Jan-07 26259 10419
47 Feb-07 23995 8801
48 Mar-07 28421 8631
49 Apr-07 22357 9682
50 May-07 23488 9052
51 Jun-07 29631 11477
52 Jul-07 20594 8242
53 Aug-07 20051 7674
54 Sep-07 27466 10339
55 Oct-07 34778 13919
56 Nov-07 25839 10531
57 Dec-07 23053 8435
58 Jan-08 23548 9750
59 Feb-08 22619 8477
60 Mar-08 28817 9814
61 Apr-08 24644 10684
62 May-08 27949 11693
63 Jun-08 32737 14439
64 Jul-08 21654 9081
65 Aug-08 22718 9781
66 Sep-08 28855 10307
67 Oct-08 33205 14800
68 Nov-08 20983 7960
69 Dec-08 17751 6858
70 Jan-09 22114 9438
71 Feb-09 20025 8487
72 Mar-09 31286 10609
73 Apr-09 27039 11282
74 May-09 31113 12870
75 Jun-09 39396 17811
76 Jul-09 27219 12128
77 Aug-09 24434 10161
78 Sep-09 41338 16359
79 Oct-09 43171 17796
80 Nov-09 27743 11604
81 Dec-09 27424 11517
82 Jan-10 35941 15925
83 Feb-10 32140 13532
84 Mar-10 43245 14648
85 Apr-10 38301 15697
86 May-10 40442 16653
87 Jun-10 38356 15411
88 Jul-10 31198 13534
89 Aug-10 29763 12454
90 Sep-10 42042 16300
91 Oct-10 55946 23378
92 Nov-10 37044 16975
93 Dec-10 35298 15135
94 Jan-11 42838 19430
95 Feb-11 41784 17534
96 Mar-11 45500 17822
97 Apr-11 42513 17740
98 May-11 41874 17952
99 Jun-11 48716 21552
100 Jul-11 38577 15699
101 Aug-11 36407 15059
102 Sep-11 56864 23508
103 Oct-11 67886 30519
104 Nov-11 39735 16175
105 Dec-11 36604 15315
106 Jan-12 42277 17950
107 Feb-12 36701 13534
108 Mar-12 43541 15054
Industry
MMFD
5 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12
Period Month MMFD Forecast Error (D-F))Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error MAPE(t)
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136 4721 -585 585 585 341835 14% 14%
5 Aug-03 3872 4533 -661 661 623 389598 17% 16%
6 Sep-03 5938 4289 1649 1649 965 1166133 28% 20%
7 Oct-03 8790 4649 4141 4141 1759 5162260 47% 27%
8 Nov-03 6825 6200 625 625 1532 4207933 9% 23%
9 Dec-03 4858 7184 -2326 2326 1665 4408582 48% 27%
10 Jan-04 5907 6824 -917 917 1558 3898999 16% 26%
11 Feb-04 6386 5863 523 523 1428 3445772 8% 23%
12 Mar-04 9085 5717 3368 3368 1644 4323288 37% 25%
13 Apr-04 6492 7126 -634 634 1543 3931155 10% 23%
14 May-04 6832 7321 -489 489 1447 3595516 7% 22%
15 Jun-04 8867 7470 1397 1397 1443 3458601 16% 21%
16 Jul-04 4998 7397 -2399 2399 1517 3635263 48% 23%
17 Aug-04 5305 6899 -1594 1594 1522 3557089 30% 24%
18 Sep-04 7618 6390 1228 1228 1502 3420482 16% 23%
19 Oct-04 11443 5974 5469 5469 1750 5076303 48% 25%
20 Nov-04 8716 8122 594 594 1682 4798452 7% 24%
21 Dec-04 6119 9259 -3140 3140 1763 5079627 51% 25%
22 Jan-05 7408 8759 -1351 1351 1742 4908388 18% 25%
23 Feb-05 7493 7414 79 79 1659 4663278 1% 24%
24 Mar-05 8541 7007 1534 1534 1653 4553321 18% 24%
25 Apr-05 8029 7814 215 215 1587 4348453 3% 23%
26 May-05 8650 8021 629 629 1546 4176592 7% 22%
27 Jun-05 9960 8407 1553 1553 1546 4103102 16% 22%
28 Jul-05 7152 8880 -1728 1728 1553 4058372 24% 22%
29 Aug-05 7322 8587 -1265 1265 1542 3963860 17% 22%
30 Sep-05 9239 8145 1094 1094 1526 3861405 12% 21%
31 Oct-05 14123 7904 6219 6219 1693 5104634 44% 22%
32 Nov-05 9566 10228 -662 662 1658 4943724 7% 22%
33 Dec-05 7341 10976 -3635 3635 1724 5219374 50% 22%
34 Jan-06 9404 10343 -939 939 1698 5079470 10% 22%
35 Feb-06 8613 8770 -157 157 1650 4921510 2% 21%
36 Mar-06 9425 8453 972 972 1630 4801022 10% 21%
37 Apr-06 10905 9147 1758 1758 1633 4750680 16% 21%
38 May-06 9842 9648 194 194 1592 4616026 2% 20%
39 Jun-06 12259 10057 2202 2202 1609 4622451 18% 20%
40 Jul-06 9285 11002 -1717 1717 1612 4577198 18% 20%
41 Aug-06 7950 10462 -2512 2512 1636 4622802 32% 21%
42 Sep-06 11482 9831 1651 1651 1636 4574133 14% 20%
43 Oct-06 15817 9572 6245 6245 1751 5434676 39% 21%
44 Nov-06 10288 11750 -1462 1462 1744 5354232 14% 21%
45 Dec-06 8743 12529 -3786 3786 1793 5568031 43% 21%
46 Jan-07 10419 11616 -1197 1197 1779 5471863 11% 21%
47 Feb-07 8801 9817 -1016 1016 1762 5370947 12% 21%
48 Mar-07 8631 9321 -690 690 1738 5262173 8% 21%
49 Apr-07 9682 9284 398 398 1709 5151227 4% 20%
50 May-07 9052 9038 14 14 1673 5041631 0% 20%
51 Jun-07 11477 9122 2355 2355 1687 5052172 21% 20%
52 Jul-07 8242 10070 -1828 1828 1690 5017287 22% 20%
53 Aug-07 7674 9590 -1916 1916 1694 4990388 25% 20%
54 Sep-07 10339 9131 1208 1208 1685 4921150 12% 20%
55 Oct-07 13919 8752 5167 5167 1752 5340000 37% 20%
56 Nov-07 10531 10644 -113 113 1721 5239486 1% 20%
57 Dec-07 8435 11596 -3161 3161 1747 5327533 37% 20%
58 Jan-08 9750 10962 -1212 1212 1738 5257362 12% 20%
59 Feb-08 8477 9572 -1095 1095 1726 5184892 13% 20%
60 Mar-08 9814 8887 927 927 1712 5108994 9% 20%
61 Apr-08 10684 9347 1337 1337 1706 5051728 13% 19%
62 May-08 11693 9658 2035 2035 1711 5036273 17% 19%
63 Jun-08 14439 10730 3709 3709 1745 5181572 26% 20%
64 Jul-08 9081 12272 -3191 3191 1768 5263554 35% 20%
65 Aug-08 9781 11738 -1957 1957 1771 5240408 20% 20%
66 Sep-08 10307 11100 -793 793 1756 5167217 8% 20%
67 Oct-08 14800 9723 5077 5077 1808 5489229 34% 20%
68 Nov-08 7960 11629 -3669 3669 1836 5611917 46% 20%
69 Dec-08 6858 11022 -4164 4164 1872 5789641 61% 21%
70 Jan-09 9438 9873 -435 435 1850 5706048 5% 21%
71 Feb-09 8487 8085 402 402 1829 5624508 5% 20%
72 Mar-09 10609 8261 2348 2348 1836 5622894 22% 20%
73 Apr-09 11282 9511 1771 1771 1835 5587356 16% 20%
74 May-09 12870 10126 2744 2744 1848 5614711 21% 20%
75 Jun-09 17811 11587 6224 6224 1909 6074759 35% 21%
76 Jul-09 12128 13988 -1860 1860 1908 6038918 15% 20%
77 Aug-09 10161 14270 -4109 4109 1938 6185435 40% 21%
78 Sep-09 16359 13367 2992 2992 1952 6222349 18% 21%
79 Oct-09 17796 12883 4913 4913 1991 6458119 28% 21%
80 Nov-09 11604 14772 -3168 3168 2006 6504588 27% 21%
81 Dec-09 11517 15253 -3736 3736 2029 6600141 32% 21%
82 Jan-10 15925 13639 2286 2286 2032 6582744 14% 21%
83 Feb-10 13532 13015 517 517 2013 6503796 4% 21%
84 Mar-10 14648 13658 990 990 2000 6435603 7% 21%
85 Apr-10 15697 14702 995 995 1988 6369201 6% 20%
86 May-10 16653 14626 2027 2027 1989 6341983 12% 20%
87 Jun-10 15411 15666 -255 255 1968 6267257 2% 20%
88 Jul-10 13534 15920 -2386 2386 1973 6260520 18% 20%
89 Aug-10 12454 15199 -2745 2745 1982 6275361 22% 20%
90 Sep-10 16300 13800 2500 2500 1988 6275089 15% 20%
91 Oct-10 23378 14096 9282 9282 2071 7182821 40% 20%
92 Nov-10 16975 17377 -402 402 2052 7103934 2% 20%
93 Dec-10 15135 18884 -3749 3749 2071 7181196 25% 20%
94 Jan-11 19430 18496 934 934 2058 7111868 5% 20%
95 Feb-11 17534 17180 354 354 2040 7035927 2% 20%
96 Mar-11 17822 17366 456 456 2023 6962505 3% 20%
97 Apr-11 17740 18262 -522 522 2007 6891334 3% 19%
98 May-11 17952 17699 253 253 1988 6819469 1% 19%
99 Jun-11 21552 17838 3714 3714 2006 6892119 17% 19%
100 Jul-11 15699 19081 -3382 3382 2020 6939006 22% 19%
101 Aug-11 15059 18401 -3342 3342 2034 6982169 22% 19%
102 Sep-11 23508 17437 6071 6071 2075 7283976 26% 19%
103 Oct-11 30519 18089 12430 12430 2178 8756268 41% 20%
104 Nov-11 16175 23029 -6854 6854 2225 9134649 42% 20%
105 Dec-11 15315 23401 -8086 8086 2282 9686054 53% 20%
106 Jan-12 17950 20670 -2720 2720 2286 9663827 15% 20%
107 Feb-12 13534 16480 -2946 2946 2293 9654356 22% 20%
108 Mar-12 15054 15600 -546 546 2276 9565246 4% 20%
109 Apr-12 15513
110 May-12 15513
111 Jun-12 15513
112 Jul-12 15513
113 Aug-12 15513
114 Sep-12 15513
115 Oct-12 15513
116 Nov-12 15513
117 Dec-12 15513
118 Jan-13 15513
119 Feb-13 15513
120 Mar-13 15513
TS(t)
35000
30000
-1.00 25000
-2.00
0.42 20000
2.58
15000
3.37
1.71 10000
1.24
1.71 5000
3.54
3.36 0
3.24
4.22
2.43
1.38 TS(t)
2.21
25
5.02
5.58 20
3.54
2.81 15
3.00
3.94 10
4.24
5
4.76
5.76 0
4.62 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
3.84 -5
4.59
7.81
7.58
5.18
4.71
4.75
5.40
6.47
6.76
8.05
6.97
5.34
6.35
9.49
8.69
6.35
5.72
5.20
4.88
5.19
5.31
6.67
5.57
4.43
5.17
7.92
8.00
6.07
5.40
4.80
5.38
6.19
7.36
9.34
7.41
6.30
5.90
8.54
6.41
4.06
3.87
4.14
5.40
6.37
7.81
10.82
9.85
7.58
9.06
11.35
9.68
7.73
8.85
9.19
9.74
10.30
11.32
11.31
10.07
8.64
9.87
13.96
13.89
11.95
12.48
12.77
13.10
12.94
13.19
14.92
13.14
11.41
14.12
19.15
15.67
11.73
10.52
9.21
9.04
MMFD
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136 4694 -558 558 558 311178 13% 13%
5 Aug-03 3872 4612 -740 740 649 429019 19% 16%
6 Sep-03 5938 4454 1485 1485 927 1020593 25% 19%
7 Oct-03 8790 4348 4442 4442 1806 5697545 51% 27%
8 Nov-03 6825 5380 1445 1445 1734 4975449 21% 26%
9 Dec-03 4858 7037 -2179 2179 1808 4937184 45% 29%
10 Jan-04 5907 7480 -1573 1573 1774 4585198 27% 29%
11 Feb-04 6386 6016 370 370 1599 4029130 6% 26%
12 Mar-04 9085 5462 3623 3623 1824 5039639 40% 27%
13 Apr-04 6492 6596 -104 104 1652 4536764 2% 25%
14 May-04 6832 7303 -471 471 1544 4144527 7% 23%
15 Jun-04 8867 7845 1022 1022 1501 3886161 12% 22%
16 Jul-04 4998 7001 -2003 2003 1539 3895893 40% 24%
17 Aug-04 5305 7205 -1900 1900 1565 3875382 36% 24%
18 Sep-04 7618 6984 634 634 1503 3643848 8% 23%
19 Oct-04 11443 5537 5906 5906 1778 5596160 52% 25%
20 Nov-04 8716 7099 1617 1617 1769 5420779 19% 25%
21 Dec-04 6119 9076 -2957 2957 1835 5605394 48% 26%
22 Jan-05 7408 9647 -2239 2239 1856 5574144 30% 26%
23 Feb-05 7493 7632 -139 139 1770 5296407 2% 25%
24 Mar-05 8541 6778 1763 1763 1770 5192261 21% 25%
25 Apr-05 8029 7625 404 404 1708 4963662 5% 24%
26 May-05 8650 7932 718 718 1665 4770286 8% 23%
27 Jun-05 9960 8389 1572 1572 1661 4674424 16% 23%
28 Jul-05 7152 8558 -1406 1406 1651 4566502 20% 23%
29 Aug-05 7322 8837 -1515 1515 1645 4479145 21% 23%
30 Sep-05 9239 8584 655 655 1609 4329125 7% 22%
31 Oct-05 14123 7557 6567 6567 1786 5714474 46% 23%
32 Nov-05 9566 9095 472 472 1741 5525090 5% 22%
33 Dec-05 7341 10922 -3581 3581 1802 5768253 49% 23%
34 Jan-06 9404 11474 -2070 2070 1810 5720358 22% 23%
35 Feb-06 8613 8797 -184 184 1760 5542659 2% 23%
36 Mar-06 9425 8241 1184 1184 1742 5417204 13% 22%
37 Apr-06 10905 9144 1761 1761 1743 5349101 16% 22%
38 May-06 9842 9266 576 576 1709 5205760 6% 22%
39 Jun-06 12259 9988 2271 2271 1725 5204439 19% 22%
40 Jul-06 9285 10776 -1491 1491 1719 5123888 16% 21%
41 Aug-06 7950 10555 -2605 2605 1742 5167606 33% 22%
42 Sep-06 11482 10550 933 933 1721 5057399 8% 21%
43 Oct-06 15817 9206 6611 6611 1844 6023542 42% 22%
44 Nov-06 10288 10439 -151 151 1802 5877179 1% 21%
45 Dec-06 8743 12728 -3985 3985 1854 6115347 46% 22%
46 Jan-07 10419 12795 -2376 2376 1866 6104417 23% 22%
47 Feb-07 8801 9795 -994 994 1847 5988128 11% 22%
48 Mar-07 8631 9311 -680 680 1821 5865345 8% 21%
49 Apr-07 9682 9582 100 100 1783 5738056 1% 21%
50 May-07 9052 8891 161 161 1749 5616520 2% 21%
51 Jun-07 11477 9052 2426 2426 1763 5622073 21% 21%
52 Jul-07 8242 9771 -1529 1529 1758 5555058 19% 21%
53 Aug-07 7674 9725 -2051 2051 1764 5528116 27% 21%
54 Sep-07 10339 9765 574 574 1741 5426186 6% 20%
55 Oct-07 13919 8402 5517 5517 1813 5907133 40% 21%
56 Nov-07 10531 9603 928 928 1796 5811921 9% 21%
57 Dec-07 8435 11564 -3129 3129 1821 5885639 37% 21%
58 Jan-08 9750 11876 -2126 2126 1827 5860782 22% 21%
59 Feb-08 8477 9702 -1225 1225 1816 5782929 14% 21%
60 Mar-08 9814 8880 934 934 1800 5696768 10% 21%
61 Apr-08 10684 9336 1348 1348 1793 5629861 13% 20%
62 May-08 11693 9291 2403 2403 1803 5632271 21% 20%
63 Jun-08 14439 10417 4022 4022 1840 5807985 28% 21%
64 Jul-08 9081 11646 -2565 2565 1852 5820642 28% 21%
65 Aug-08 9781 12173 -2392 2392 1861 5819046 24% 21%
66 Sep-08 10307 11877 -1570 1570 1856 5765789 15% 21%
67 Oct-08 14800 9519 5281 5281 1909 6111519 36% 21%
68 Nov-08 7960 10793 -2833 2833 1924 6140956 36% 21%
69 Dec-08 6858 11414 -4556 4556 1964 6362344 66% 22%
70 Jan-09 9438 11196 -1758 1758 1961 6313529 19% 22%
71 Feb-09 8487 7839 648 648 1941 6226858 8% 22%
72 Mar-09 10609 7990 2620 2620 1951 6236060 25% 22%
73 Apr-09 11282 9316 1966 1966 1951 6202180 17% 21%
74 May-09 12870 9660 3210 3210 1969 6259939 25% 22%
75 Jun-09 17811 11210 6601 6601 2033 6778148 37% 22%
76 Jul-09 12128 12900 -772 772 2016 6693450 6% 22%
77 Aug-09 10161 14393 -4232 4232 2046 6845061 42% 22%
78 Sep-09 16359 14642 1717 1717 2042 6793117 10% 22%
79 Oct-09 17796 12178 5619 5619 2089 7119096 32% 22%
80 Nov-09 11604 13500 -1896 1896 2086 7073302 16% 22%
81 Dec-09 11517 16046 -4529 4529 2117 7245532 39% 22%
82 Jan-10 15925 14686 1240 1240 2106 7173264 8% 22%
83 Feb-10 13532 12295 1237 1237 2095 7102721 9% 22%
84 Mar-10 14648 13322 1326 1326 2086 7036734 9% 21%
85 Apr-10 15697 14915 783 783 2070 6958388 5% 21%
86 May-10 16653 14265 2388 2388 2074 6943267 14% 21%
87 Jun-10 15411 15332 79 79 2050 6860683 1% 21%
88 Jul-10 13534 15968 -2434 2434 2055 6849668 18% 21%
89 Aug-10 12454 15719 -3265 3265 2069 6893989 26% 21%
90 Sep-10 16300 14293 2008 2008 2068 6861070 12% 21%
91 Oct-10 23378 13635 9743 9743 2155 7861809 42% 21%
92 Nov-10 16975 15557 1418 1418 2147 7796077 8% 21%
93 Dec-10 15135 18772 -3637 3637 2164 7856415 24% 21%
94 Jan-11 19430 19870 -440 440 2145 7772207 2% 21%
95 Feb-11 17534 16771 763 763 2130 7694057 4% 21%
96 Mar-11 17822 16967 856 856 2116 7619195 5% 20%
97 Apr-11 17740 18530 -790 790 2102 7544779 4% 20%
98 May-11 17952 17664 288 288 2083 7466232 2% 20%
99 Jun-11 21552 17816 3736 3736 2100 7533825 17% 20%
100 Jul-11 15699 18446 -2747 2747 2107 7533951 17% 20%
101 Aug-11 15059 18777 -3718 3718 2123 7598092 25% 20%
102 Sep-11 23508 18519 4989 4989 2152 7772776 21% 20%
103 Oct-11 30519 16787 13732 13732 2268 9580681 45% 20%
104 Nov-11 16175 20452 -4277 4277 2288 9666938 26% 20%
105 Dec-11 15315 24623 -9308 9308 2356 10421535 61% 21%
106 Jan-12 17950 23204 -5254 5254 2385 10588326 29% 21%
107 Feb-12 13534 16184 -2650 2650 2387 10554048 20% 21%
108 Mar-12 15054 15897 -842 842 2372 10460293 6% 21%
109 Apr-12 15995
110 May-12 15995
111 Jun-12 15995
112 Jul-12 15995
113 Aug-12 15995
114 Sep-12 15995
115 Oct-12 15995
116 Nov-12 15995
117 Dec-12 15995
118 Jan-13 15995
119 Feb-13 15995
120 Mar-13 15995
TS(t)
35000
30000
-1.00 25000
-2.00
0.20 20000
2.56
15000
3.50
2.15 10000
1.31
1.68 5000
3.46
3.76 0
3.72
4.50
3.09
1.83 TS(t)
2.32
25
5.29
6.23 20
4.39
3.14 15
3.21
4.21 10
4.60
5
5.15
6.10 0
5.29 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
4.39 -5
4.89
8.08
8.57
6.29
5.11
5.16
5.89
6.90
7.37
8.62
7.78
6.18
6.80
9.93
10.08
7.65
6.32
5.85
5.56
5.74
5.94
7.27
6.42
5.24
5.64
8.45
9.05
7.21
6.02
5.38
5.95
6.72
8.02
10.04
8.59
7.27
6.44
9.03
7.49
5.01
4.13
4.50
5.82
6.83
8.40
11.38
11.09
8.86
9.72
12.19
11.30
8.99
9.63
10.27
10.95
11.41
12.54
12.73
11.51
9.86
10.83
14.91
15.63
13.83
13.75
14.20
14.70
14.42
14.69
16.35
15.00
13.13
15.27
20.55
18.50
14.01
11.64
10.52
10.23
#
3
2
1
6
MMFD
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
Month Weights
Immediate past month 0.5
Immediate past month - 1 month 0.333333
Immediate past month - 2 months 0.166667
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136
5 Aug-03 3872
6 Sep-03 5938
7 Oct-03 8790 4685 4105 4105 4105 16853762 47% 47%
8 Nov-03 6825 5367 1458 1458 2782 9490249 21% 34%
9 Dec-03 4858 5737 -879 879 2147 6584184 18% 29%
10 Jan-04 5907 5737 171 171 1653 4945406 3% 22%
11 Feb-04 6386 6032 354 354 1393 3981435 6% 19%
12 Mar-04 9085 6451 2634 2634 1600 4474481 29% 21%
13 Apr-04 6492 6975 -483 483 1441 3868620 7% 19%
14 May-04 6832 6592 240 240 1291 3392232 4% 17%
15 Jun-04 8867 6593 2274 2274 1400 3589713 26% 18%
16 Jul-04 4998 7262 -2264 2264 1486 3743085 45% 21%
17 Aug-04 5305 7110 -1805 1805 1515 3698989 34% 22%
18 Sep-04 7618 6930 688 688 1446 3430204 9% 21%
19 Oct-04 11443 6685 4758 4758 1701 4907526 42% 22%
20 Nov-04 8716 7511 1206 1206 1666 4660791 14% 22%
21 Dec-04 6119 7825 -1706 1706 1668 4543987 28% 22%
22 Jan-05 7408 7367 42 42 1567 4260095 1% 21%
23 Feb-05 7493 7768 -275 275 1491 4013955 4% 20%
24 Mar-05 8541 8133 408 408 1430 3800213 5% 19%
25 Apr-05 8029 8287 -258 258 1369 3603696 3% 18%
26 May-05 8650 7718 932 932 1347 3466974 11% 18%
27 Jun-05 9960 7707 2253 2253 1390 3543666 23% 18%
28 Jul-05 7152 8347 -1195 1195 1381 3447483 17% 18%
29 Aug-05 7322 8304 -982 982 1364 3339533 13% 18%
30 Sep-05 9239 8276 963 963 1347 3239053 10% 17%
31 Oct-05 14123 8392 5731 5731 1523 4423266 41% 18%
32 Nov-05 9566 9408 158 158 1470 4254104 2% 18%
33 Dec-05 7341 9560 -2219 2219 1498 4278968 30% 18%
34 Jan-06 9404 9124 280 280 1454 4128951 3% 18%
35 Feb-06 8613 9499 -886 886 1435 4013653 10% 17%
36 Mar-06 9425 9714 -289 289 1397 3882655 3% 17%
37 Apr-06 10905 9745 1160 1160 1389 3800789 11% 17%
38 May-06 9842 9209 633 633 1365 3694536 6% 16%
39 Jun-06 12259 9255 3004 3004 1415 3856036 25% 17%
40 Jul-06 9285 10075 -790 790 1397 3760963 9% 16%
41 Aug-06 7950 10055 -2105 2105 1417 3780088 26% 17%
42 Sep-06 11482 9944 1538 1538 1420 3740764 13% 17%
43 Oct-06 15817 10287 5530 5530 1531 4466123 35% 17%
44 Nov-06 10288 11106 -818 818 1512 4366195 8% 17%
45 Dec-06 8743 11180 -2437 2437 1536 4406543 28% 17%
46 Jan-07 10419 10594 -175 175 1502 4297147 2% 17%
47 Feb-07 8801 10783 -1982 1982 1514 4288167 23% 17%
48 Mar-07 8631 10925 -2294 2294 1532 4311364 27% 17%
49 Apr-07 9682 10450 -768 768 1515 4224811 8% 17%
50 May-07 9052 9427 -375 375 1489 4131994 4% 17%
51 Jun-07 11477 9221 2256 2256 1506 4153239 20% 17%
52 Jul-07 8242 9677 -1435 1435 1504 4107717 17% 17%
53 Aug-07 7674 9314 -1640 1640 1507 4077556 21% 17%
54 Sep-07 10339 9126 1213 1213 1501 4023244 12% 17%
55 Oct-07 13919 9411 4508 4508 1562 4355873 32% 17%
56 Nov-07 10531 10117 414 414 1539 4272180 4% 17%
57 Dec-07 8435 10364 -1929 1929 1547 4261348 23% 17%
58 Jan-08 9750 9857 -107 107 1519 4179618 1% 17%
59 Feb-08 8477 10108 -1631 1631 1521 4150949 19% 17%
60 Mar-08 9814 10242 -428 428 1501 4077469 4% 16%
61 Apr-08 10684 10154 530 530 1484 4008435 5% 16%
62 May-08 11693 9615 2078 2078 1494 4013952 18% 16%
63 Jun-08 14439 9809 4630 4630 1549 4319644 32% 16%
64 Jul-08 9081 10810 -1729 1729 1552 4296680 19% 17%
65 Aug-08 9781 10698 -917 917 1541 4238107 9% 16%
66 Sep-08 10307 10915 -608 608 1526 4173640 6% 16%
67 Oct-08 14800 10998 3803 3803 1563 4342253 26% 16%
68 Nov-08 7960 11684 -3724 3724 1598 4495837 47% 17%
69 Dec-08 6858 11061 -4203 4203 1639 4704919 61% 18%
70 Jan-09 9438 9798 -360 360 1619 4633427 4% 17%
71 Feb-09 8487 9857 -1370 1370 1616 4591033 16% 17%
72 Mar-09 10609 9642 967 967 1606 4535650 9% 17%
73 Apr-09 11282 9692 1590 1590 1606 4505687 14% 17%
74 May-09 12870 9106 3764 3764 1637 4647812 29% 17%
75 Jun-09 17811 9924 7887 7887 1728 5481971 44% 18%
76 Jul-09 12128 11750 379 379 1709 5405703 3% 18%
77 Aug-09 10161 12198 -2037 2037 1713 5387999 20% 18%
78 Sep-09 16359 12477 3882 3882 1743 5522488 24% 18%
79 Oct-09 17796 13435 4361 4361 1779 5707343 25% 18%
80 Nov-09 11604 14521 -2917 2917 1795 5745188 25% 18%
81 Dec-09 11517 14310 -2793 2793 1808 5772585 24% 18%
82 Jan-10 15925 13261 2664 2664 1819 5790021 17% 18%
83 Feb-10 13532 13894 -362 362 1800 5716525 3% 18%
84 Mar-10 14648 14456 193 193 1780 5643711 1% 18%
85 Apr-10 15697 14170 1527 1527 1776 5601775 10% 17%
86 May-10 16653 13821 2833 2833 1790 5632041 17% 17%
87 Jun-10 15411 14662 749 749 1777 5569435 5% 17%
88 Jul-10 13534 15311 -1777 1777 1777 5540024 13% 17%
89 Aug-10 12454 14913 -2459 2459 1785 5546099 20% 17%
90 Sep-10 16300 14733 1567 1567 1782 5509312 10% 17%
91 Oct-10 23378 15008 8370 8370 1860 6268663 36% 17%
92 Nov-10 16975 16288 687 687 1846 6201254 4% 17%
93 Dec-10 15135 16342 -1207 1207 1839 6146721 8% 17%
94 Jan-11 19430 16296 3134 3134 1854 6188485 16% 17%
95 Feb-11 17534 17279 255 255 1836 6119684 1% 17%
96 Mar-11 17822 18125 -303 303 1819 6052709 2% 17%
97 Apr-11 17740 18379 -639 639 1806 5990683 4% 17%
98 May-11 17952 17439 513 513 1792 5928424 3% 16%
99 Jun-11 21552 17602 3950 3950 1815 6032432 18% 16%
100 Jul-11 15699 18672 -2973 2973 1827 6062265 19% 16%
101 Aug-11 15059 18050 -2991 2991 1839 6092611 20% 17%
102 Sep-11 23508 17637 5871 5871 1881 6388154 25% 17%
103 Oct-11 30519 18585 11934 11934 1985 7790547 39% 17%
104 Nov-11 16175 20715 -4540 4540 2011 7921359 28% 17%
105 Dec-11 15315 20419 -5104 5104 2042 8104451 33% 17%
106 Jan-12 17950 19379 -1429 1429 2036 8043831 8% 17%
107 Feb-12 13534 19754 -6220 6220 2078 8347284 46% 17%
108 Mar-12 15054 19500 -4446 4446 2101 8459256 30% 17%
109 Apr-12 18091
110 May-12 18091
111 Jun-12 18091
112 Jul-12 18091
113 Aug-12 18091
114 Sep-12 18091
115 Oct-12 18091
116 Nov-12 18091
117 Dec-12 18091
118 Jan-13 18091
119 Feb-13 18091
120 Mar-13 18091
TS(t)
35000
30000
25000
20000
1.00
15000
2.00
2.18 10000
2.94
3.74 5000
4.90
5.11 0
5.89
7.05
5.12
3.83 TS(t)
4.49 35
6.61
30
7.48
6.45 25
6.89 20
7.06
15
7.64
7.79 10
8.61 5
9.97
0
9.17
8.56
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
9.38
12.07
12.61
10.89
11.41
10.95
11.04
11.93
12.60
14.28
13.91
12.22
13.28
15.93
15.58
13.76
13.95
12.53
10.88
10.50
10.44
11.82
10.87
9.76
10.61
13.08
13.54
12.23
12.38
11.29
11.16
11.65
12.96
15.49
14.34
13.85
13.59
15.70
13.03
10.14
10.04
9.21
9.87
10.86
12.95
16.84
17.25
16.01
17.96
20.05
18.26
16.58
17.94
17.93
18.24
19.13
20.58
21.15
20.15
18.68
19.58
23.27
23.81
23.25
24.76
25.14
25.21
25.03
25.52
27.37
25.55
23.76
26.35
30.98
28.33
25.39
24.77
21.28
18.93
MMFD
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
1 Apr-03 4698
2 May-03 4605
3 Jun-03 4859
4 Jul-03 4136
5 Aug-03 3872
6 Sep-03 5938
7 Oct-03 8790 4607 4183 4183 4183 17500676 48% 48%
8 Nov-03 6825 4798 2027 2027 3105 10805378 30% 39%
9 Dec-03 4858 5121 -263 263 2158 7226642 5% 28%
10 Jan-04 5907 5372 535 535 1752 5491614 9% 23%
11 Feb-04 6386 5913 473 473 1496 4437974 7% 20%
12 Mar-04 9085 6650 2435 2435 1653 4686439 27% 21%
13 Apr-04 6492 6946 -454 454 1482 4046448 7% 19%
14 May-04 6832 6318 514 514 1361 3573605 8% 18%
15 Jun-04 8867 6252 2615 2615 1500 3936175 29% 19%
16 Jul-04 4998 6939 -1941 1941 1544 3919306 39% 21%
17 Aug-04 5305 7283 -1978 1978 1583 3918583 37% 22%
18 Sep-04 7618 7438 180 180 1466 3594731 2% 21%
19 Oct-04 11443 6752 4691 4691 1714 5010599 41% 22%
20 Nov-04 8716 7043 1673 1673 1711 4852509 19% 22%
21 Dec-04 6119 7327 -1208 1208 1678 4626300 20% 22%
22 Jan-05 7408 6898 510 510 1605 4353391 7% 21%
23 Feb-05 7493 7690 -197 197 1522 4099588 3% 20%
24 Mar-05 8541 8498 43 43 1440 3871937 1% 19%
25 Apr-05 8029 8689 -660 660 1399 3691064 8% 18%
26 May-05 8650 7624 1026 1026 1380 3559101 12% 18%
27 Jun-05 9960 7336 2624 2624 1439 3717483 26% 18%
28 Jul-05 7152 7973 -821 821 1411 3579113 11% 18%
29 Aug-05 7322 8229 -907 907 1389 3459236 12% 18%
30 Sep-05 9239 8452 787 787 1364 3340893 9% 17%
31 Oct-05 14123 8410 5713 5713 1538 4512944 40% 18%
32 Nov-05 9566 8804 762 762 1508 4361727 8% 18%
33 Dec-05 7341 9064 -1723 1723 1516 4310092 23% 18%
34 Jan-06 9404 8825 579 579 1483 4168143 6% 18%
35 Feb-06 8613 9495 -882 882 1462 4051262 10% 17%
36 Mar-06 9425 10179 -754 754 1439 3935166 8% 17%
37 Apr-06 10905 10324 581 581 1411 3819130 5% 17%
38 May-06 9842 8920 922 922 1396 3726372 9% 17%
39 Jun-06 12259 8831 3428 3428 1457 3969607 28% 17%
40 Jul-06 9285 9612 -327 327 1424 3855995 4% 16%
41 Aug-06 7950 9798 -1848 1848 1436 3843368 23% 17%
42 Sep-06 11482 10178 1304 1304 1432 3783834 11% 17%
43 Oct-06 15817 10424 5393 5393 1539 4467510 34% 17%
44 Nov-06 10288 10482 -194 194 1504 4350932 2% 17%
45 Dec-06 8743 10864 -2121 2121 1520 4354735 24% 17%
46 Jan-07 10419 10388 31 31 1483 4245890 0% 16%
47 Feb-07 8801 10817 -2016 2016 1496 4241413 23% 17%
48 Mar-07 8631 11667 -3036 3036 1532 4359818 35% 17%
49 Apr-07 9682 11372 -1690 1690 1536 4324818 17% 17%
50 May-07 9052 9546 -494 494 1512 4232073 5% 17%
51 Jun-07 11477 9241 2236 2236 1528 4249107 19% 17%
52 Jul-07 8242 9508 -1266 1266 1523 4191583 15% 17%
53 Aug-07 7674 9192 -1518 1518 1523 4151456 20% 17%
54 Sep-07 10339 9285 1054 1054 1513 4088095 10% 17%
55 Oct-07 13919 9508 4411 4411 1572 4401702 32% 17%
56 Nov-07 10531 9633 898 898 1558 4329811 9% 17%
57 Dec-07 8435 10007 -1572 1572 1559 4293388 19% 17%
58 Jan-08 9750 9544 206 206 1533 4211636 2% 17%
59 Feb-08 8477 10078 -1601 1601 1534 4180505 19% 17%
60 Mar-08 9814 10811 -997 997 1524 4121502 10% 16%
61 Apr-08 10684 10758 -74 74 1498 4046667 1% 16%
62 May-08 11693 9529 2164 2164 1510 4058046 19% 16%
63 Jun-08 14439 9322 5117 5117 1573 4446139 35% 17%
64 Jul-08 9081 10001 -920 920 1562 4384070 10% 16%
65 Aug-08 9781 10272 -491 491 1543 4313845 5% 16%
66 Sep-08 10307 10968 -661 661 1529 4249238 6% 16%
67 Oct-08 14800 11307 3493 3493 1561 4379650 24% 16%
68 Nov-08 7960 11592 -3632 3632 1594 4521786 46% 17%
69 Dec-08 6858 11412 -4554 4554 1641 4779146 66% 17%
70 Jan-09 9438 10086 -648 648 1626 4711024 7% 17%
71 Feb-09 8487 10307 -1820 1820 1629 4689528 21% 17%
72 Mar-09 10609 10268 341 341 1609 4620241 3% 17%
73 Apr-09 11282 10092 1190 1190 1603 4572423 11% 17%
74 May-09 12870 8465 4405 4405 1644 4790547 34% 17%
75 Jun-09 17811 9026 8785 8785 1748 5839603 49% 18%
76 Jul-09 12128 10424 1704 1704 1747 5797679 14% 18%
77 Aug-09 10161 11212 -1051 1051 1737 5731583 10% 18%
78 Sep-09 16359 12352 4007 4007 1769 5874968 24% 18%
79 Oct-09 17796 13160 4636 4636 1808 6088961 26% 18%
80 Nov-09 11604 14085 -2481 2481 1817 6089855 21% 18%
81 Dec-09 11517 14496 -2979 2979 1833 6127010 26% 18%
82 Jan-10 15925 13196 2729 2729 1844 6144363 17% 18%
83 Feb-10 13532 13701 -169 169 1823 6064936 1% 18%
84 Mar-10 14648 14928 -280 280 1803 5988184 2% 18%
85 Apr-10 15697 14302 1395 1395 1798 5937002 9% 17%
86 May-10 16653 13167 3486 3486 1819 6014730 21% 18%
87 Jun-10 15411 14040 1371 1371 1813 5963669 9% 17%
88 Jul-10 13534 15124 -1590 1590 1811 5921783 12% 17%
89 Aug-10 12454 14835 -2381 2381 1818 5918740 19% 17%
90 Sep-10 16300 15178 1122 1122 1809 5863263 7% 17%
91 Oct-10 23378 15281 8097 8097 1883 6565594 35% 17%
92 Nov-10 16975 15450 1525 1525 1879 6516294 9% 17%
93 Dec-10 15135 15361 -226 226 1860 6441981 1% 17%
94 Jan-11 19430 15614 3816 3816 1882 6534257 20% 17%
95 Feb-11 17534 16684 850 850 1871 6468959 5% 17%
96 Mar-11 17822 18304 -482 482 1855 6399665 3% 17%
97 Apr-11 17740 18898 -1158 1158 1848 6344081 7% 17%
98 May-11 17952 17201 751 751 1836 6281247 4% 17%
99 Jun-11 21552 17381 4171 4171 1861 6400803 19% 17%
100 Jul-11 15699 18391 -2692 2692 1870 6409812 17% 17%
101 Aug-11 15059 17997 -2938 2938 1881 6433190 20% 17%
102 Sep-11 23508 18026 5482 5482 1918 6679185 23% 17%
103 Oct-11 30519 18244 12275 12275 2025 8163600 40% 17%
104 Nov-11 16175 19094 -2919 2919 2034 8167259 18% 17%
105 Dec-11 15315 19799 -4484 4484 2059 8287859 29% 17%
106 Jan-12 17950 19178 -1228 1228 2051 8220067 7% 17%
107 Feb-12 13534 20337 -6803 6803 2098 8596893 50% 17%
108 Mar-12 15054 21606 -6552 6552 2141 8933455 44% 18%
109 Apr-12 20058
110 May-12 20058
111 Jun-12 20058
112 Jul-12 20058
113 Aug-12 20058
114 Sep-12 20058
115 Oct-12 20058
116 Nov-12 20058
117 Dec-12 20058
118 Jan-13 20058
119 Feb-13 20058
120 Mar-13 20058
TS(t)
35000
30000
25000
20000
1.00
15000
2.00
2.76 10000
3.70
4.65 5000
5.68
6.03 0
6.95
8.04
6.56
5.14 TS(t)
5.68 40
7.59
35
8.58
30
8.03
8.72 25
9.06 20
9.61 15
9.42 10
10.29
5
11.69
0
11.34
10.87
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
11.64
14.04
14.83
13.61
14.31
13.91
13.61
14.29
15.11
16.82
16.99
15.56
16.51
18.86
19.18
17.58
18.04
16.54
14.16
13.03
12.91
14.23
13.45
12.46
13.24
15.54
16.25
15.24
15.64
14.58
14.02
14.22
15.54
18.17
17.71
17.60
17.34
19.22
16.53
13.29
13.02
11.87
12.23
13.02
15.37
19.49
20.47
19.98
21.89
23.98
22.49
20.68
22.03
22.20
22.29
23.12
24.77
25.60
24.77
23.36
24.09
27.44
28.31
28.48
30.17
30.81
30.81
30.31
30.92
32.74
31.15
29.40
31.68
36.07
34.48
31.88
31.41
27.47
23.85
#
6
5
4
3
2
1
MMFD
21
Forecast
TS(t)
TS(t)
58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 10 6
Month Weights
Immediate past month 0.285714
Immediate past month - 1 month 0.238095
Period Month MMFD Level(t) Forecast(t)Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error
0 11302
1 Apr-03 4698 10971 11302 -6604 6604 6604 43608291 141%
2 May-03 4605 10653 10971 -6366 6366 6485 42070145 138%
3 Jun-03 4859 10363 10653 -5794 5794 6255 39237491 119%
4 Jul-03 4136 10052 10363 -6227 6227 6248 39123381 151%
5 Aug-03 3872 9743 10052 -6180 6180 6234 38937360 160%
6 Sep-03 5938 9553 9743 -3805 3805 5829 34860890 64%
7 Oct-03 8790 9515 9553 -763 763 5106 29963889 9%
8 Nov-03 6825 9380 9515 -2690 2690 4804 27122696 39%
9 Dec-03 4858 9154 9380 -4522 4522 4772 26381308 93%
10 Jan-04 5907 8992 9154 -3247 3247 4620 24797530 55%
11 Feb-04 6386 8861 8992 -2606 2606 4437 23160465 41%
12 Mar-04 9085 8873 8861 224 224 4086 21234591 2%
13 Apr-04 6492 8754 8873 -2381 2381 3955 20037110 37%
14 May-04 6832 8658 8754 -1922 1922 3809 18869638 28%
15 Jun-04 8867 8668 8658 209 209 3569 17614588 2%
16 Jul-04 4998 8484 8668 -3670 3670 3576 17355474 73%
17 Aug-04 5305 8326 8484 -3179 3179 3552 16929218 60%
18 Sep-04 7618 8290 8326 -708 708 3394 16016515 9%
19 Oct-04 11443 8448 8290 3153 3153 3382 15696728 28%
20 Nov-04 8716 8461 8448 268 268 3226 14915489 3%
21 Dec-04 6119 8344 8461 -2342 2342 3184 14466458 38%
22 Jan-05 7408 8297 8344 -936 936 3082 13848721 13%
23 Feb-05 7493 8257 8297 -804 804 2983 13274727 11%
24 Mar-05 8541 8271 8257 284 284 2870 12724973 3%
25 Apr-05 8029 8259 8271 -242 242 2765 12218321 3%
26 May-05 8650 8279 8259 391 391 2674 11754262 5%
27 Jun-05 9960 8363 8279 1681 1681 2637 11423615 17%
28 Jul-05 7152 8302 8363 -1211 1211 2586 11067983 17%
29 Aug-05 7322 8253 8302 -980 980 2531 10719461 13%
30 Sep-05 9239 8302 8253 986 986 2479 10394538 11%
31 Oct-05 14123 8594 8302 5821 5821 2587 11152078 41%
32 Nov-05 9566 8642 8594 972 972 2537 10833130 10%
33 Dec-05 7341 8577 8642 -1301 1301 2499 10556155 18%
34 Jan-06 9404 8618 8577 827 827 2450 10265792 9%
35 Feb-06 8613 8618 8618 -5 5 2380 9972484 0%
36 Mar-06 9425 8659 8618 807 807 2336 9713554 9%
37 Apr-06 10905 8771 8659 2246 2246 2334 9587424 21%
38 May-06 9842 8824 8771 1071 1071 2301 9365318 11%
39 Jun-06 12259 8996 8824 3435 3435 2330 9427658 28%
40 Jul-06 9285 9011 8996 289 289 2279 9194053 3%
41 Aug-06 7950 8958 9011 -1061 1061 2249 8997242 13%
42 Sep-06 11482 9084 8958 2524 2524 2256 8934758 22%
43 Oct-06 15817 9420 9084 6733 6733 2360 9781312 43%
44 Nov-06 10288 9464 9420 868 868 2326 9576116 8%
45 Dec-06 8743 9428 9464 -721 721 2290 9374859 8%
46 Jan-07 10419 9477 9428 991 991 2262 9192418 10%
47 Feb-07 8801 9444 9477 -676 676 2228 9006566 8%
48 Mar-07 8631 9403 9444 -813 813 2199 8832683 9%
49 Apr-07 9682 9417 9403 279 279 2160 8654014 3%
50 May-07 9052 9399 9417 -365 365 2124 8483596 4%
51 Jun-07 11477 9503 9399 2078 2078 2123 8401952 18%
52 Jul-07 8242 9439 9503 -1261 1261 2106 8270932 15%
53 Aug-07 7674 9351 9439 -1765 1765 2100 8173687 23%
54 Sep-07 10339 9401 9351 988 988 2079 8040391 10%
55 Oct-07 13919 9627 9401 4518 4518 2123 8265401 32%
56 Nov-07 10531 9672 9627 904 904 2102 8132413 9%
57 Dec-07 8435 9610 9672 -1237 1237 2087 8016573 15%
58 Jan-08 9750 9617 9610 140 140 2053 7878695 1%
59 Feb-08 8477 9560 9617 -1140 1140 2037 7767181 13%
60 Mar-08 9814 9573 9560 254 254 2008 7638804 3%
61 Apr-08 10684 9628 9573 1111 1111 1993 7533827 10%
62 May-08 11693 9731 9628 2065 2065 1994 7481078 18%
63 Jun-08 14439 9967 9731 4708 4708 2037 7714096 33%
64 Jul-08 9081 9923 9967 -886 886 2019 7605824 10%
65 Aug-08 9781 9915 9923 -142 142 1990 7489119 1%
66 Sep-08 10307 9935 9915 392 392 1966 7377971 4%
67 Oct-08 14800 10178 9935 4865 4865 2009 7621106 33%
68 Nov-08 7960 10067 10178 -2218 2218 2013 7581394 28%
69 Dec-08 6858 9907 10067 -3209 3209 2030 7620794 47%
70 Jan-09 9438 9883 9907 -469 469 2008 7515066 5%
71 Feb-09 8487 9814 9883 -1396 1396 1999 7436686 16%
72 Mar-09 10609 9853 9814 795 795 1982 7342185 7%
73 Apr-09 11282 9925 9853 1429 1429 1975 7269565 13%
74 May-09 12870 10072 9925 2945 2945 1988 7288545 23%
75 Jun-09 17811 10459 10072 7739 7739 2064 7989909 43%
76 Jul-09 12128 10542 10459 1669 1669 2059 7921430 14%
77 Aug-09 10161 10523 10542 -381 381 2037 7820444 4%
78 Sep-09 16359 10815 10523 5836 5836 2086 8156774 36%
79 Oct-09 17796 11164 10815 6981 6981 2148 8670383 39%
80 Nov-09 11604 11186 11164 440 440 2127 8564420 4%
81 Dec-09 11517 11203 11186 331 331 2105 8460038 3%
82 Jan-10 15925 11439 11203 4722 4722 2137 8628813 30%
83 Feb-10 13532 11544 11439 2093 2093 2136 8577638 15%
84 Mar-10 14648 11699 11544 3104 3104 2148 8590259 21%
85 Apr-10 15697 11899 11699 3998 3998 2169 8677268 25%
86 May-10 16653 12136 11899 4754 4754 2199 8839204 29%
87 Jun-10 15411 12300 12136 3275 3275 2212 8860859 21%
88 Jul-10 13534 12362 12300 1234 1234 2201 8777468 9%
89 Aug-10 12454 12366 12362 92 92 2177 8678941 1%
90 Sep-10 16300 12563 12366 3934 3934 2196 8754432 24%
91 Oct-10 23378 13104 12563 10815 10815 2291 9943529 46%
92 Nov-10 16975 13297 13104 3871 3871 2308 9998338 23%
93 Dec-10 15135 13389 13297 1838 1838 2303 9927138 12%
94 Jan-11 19430 13691 13389 6041 6041 2343 10209726 31%
95 Feb-11 17534 13883 13691 3843 3843 2359 10257690 22%
96 Mar-11 17822 14080 13883 3939 3939 2375 10312424 22%
97 Apr-11 17740 14263 14080 3660 3660 2389 10344181 21%
98 May-11 17952 14448 14263 3689 3689 2402 10377466 21%
99 Jun-11 21552 14803 14448 7104 7104 2449 10782440 33%
100 Jul-11 15699 14848 14803 896 896 2434 10682644 6%
101 Aug-11 15059 14858 14848 211 211 2412 10577317 1%
102 Sep-11 23508 15291 14858 8650 8650 2473 11207111 37%
103 Oct-11 30519 16052 15291 15228 15228 2597 13349730 50%
104 Nov-11 16175 16058 16052 123 123 2573 13221512 1%
105 Dec-11 15315 16021 16058 -743 743 2556 13100856 5%
106 Jan-12 17950 16118 16021 1929 1929 2550 13012360 11%
107 Feb-12 13534 15988 16118 -2584 2584 2550 12953134 19%
108 Mar-12 15054 15942 15988 -934 934 2535 12841284 6%
109 Apr-12 15942
110 May-12 15942
111 Jun-12 15942
112 Jul-12 15942
113 Aug-12 15942
114 Sep-12 15942
115 Oct-12 15942
116 Nov-12 15942
117 Dec-12 15942
118 Jan-13 15942
119 Feb-13 15942
120 Mar-13 15942
MAPE(t) TS(t)
141% -1.00 35000

139% -2.00
30000
133% -3.00
137% -4.00 25000
142% -5.00
129% -6.00 20000
112% -7.00
15000
103% -8.00
101% -9.00 PRESENCE OF
10000 TREND
97% -10.00
92% -11.00 5000
84% -11.89
81% -12.89 0
77% -13.88
72% -14.76
72% -15.76
71% -16.76 Alpha 0.05
68% -17.74
66% -16.88
63% -17.61
TS(t)
61% -18.58 50.00
59% -19.50 40.00
57% -20.42
30.00
55% -21.12
53% -22.01 20.00
51% -22.61 10.00
50% -22.29
0.00
49% -23.20
47% -24.09 -10.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
46% -24.19 -20.00
46% -20.94
-30.00
45% -20.97
44% -21.80
43% -21.90 Data Table
42% -22.55 Alpha 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
41% -22.63 MAD 2535
40% -21.69 MSE 12841284
39% -21.54 MAPE 25% 22% 21% 21% 20% 21%
39% -19.79
38% -20.11
38% -20.85 MSE
37% -19.67
37% -15.94 14000000 3000
12000000 2500
10000000
2000
8000000
MSE
14000000 3000
37% -15.80 12000000 2500
36% -16.36
10000000
36% -16.13 2000
35% -16.68 8000000
34% -17.27 1500
6000000
34% -17.46
1000
33% -17.92 4000000
33% -16.95 2000000 500
33% -17.68
0 0
32% -18.58
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05
32% -18.29
32% -15.78
32% -15.51
31% -16.22
31% -16.41
30% -17.10
30% -17.22
30% -16.79
29% -15.75
30% -13.10
29% -13.66
29% -13.93
28% -13.90
28% -11.18
28% -12.27
29% -13.74
28% -14.13
28% -14.89
28% -14.61
28% -13.94
28% -12.37
28% -8.16
28% -7.37
27% -7.64
27% -4.66
28% -1.28
27% -1.09
27% -0.94
27% 1.28
27% 2.26
27% 3.70
27% 5.50
27% 7.59
27% 9.03
27% 9.63
26% 9.78
26% 11.49
26% 15.73
26% 17.29
26% 18.13
26% 20.40
26% 21.89
26% 23.40
26% 24.80
26% 26.20
26% 28.59
26% 29.14
26% 29.50
26% 32.26
26% 36.59
26% 36.98
26% 36.94
26% 37.78
25% 36.76
25% 36.61
MMFD
Forecast(t)
PRESENCE OF
TREND
TS(t)
46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 1 0 3 10 6
0.35
21%
MAD MA
3000 30%
2500 25%
2000 20%
MAD MA
3000 30%
2500 25%
2000 20%
1500 15%
1000 10%
500 5%
0 0%
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15
MAPE
MAPE
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

Period Month MMFD Level(t) Trend(t) Forecast(t Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t)
0 4773 120
1 Apr-03 4698 4892 -194 194 194 37811
2 May-03 4605 5012 -407 407 301 101831
3 Jun-03 4859 5132 -273 273 292 92739
4 Jul-03 4136 5252 -1116 1116 498 380832
5 Aug-03 3872 5372 -1500 1500 698 754452
6 Sep-03 5938 5491 447 447 656 661946
7 Oct-03 8790 5611 3179 3179 1017 2010884
8 Nov-03 6825 5731 1094 1094 1026 1909117
9 Dec-03 4858 5851 -993 993 1022 1806518
10 Jan-04 5907 5971 -64 64 927 1626271
11 Feb-04 6386 6090 296 296 869 1486370
12 Mar-04 9085 6210 2875 2875 1036 2051197
13 Apr-04 6492 6330 162 162 969 1895431
14 May-04 6832 6450 382 382 927 1770475
15 Jun-04 8867 6570 2297 2297 1019 2004306
16 Jul-04 4998 6689 -1691 1691 1061 2057844
17 Aug-04 5305 6809 -1504 1504 1087 2069893
18 Sep-04 7618 6929 689 689 1065 1981271
19 Oct-04 11443 7049 4394 4394 1240 2893247
20 Nov-04 8716 7169 1547 1547 1255 2868305
21 Dec-04 6119 7288 -1169 1169 1251 2796839
22 Jan-05 7408 7408 0 0 1194 2669710
23 Feb-05 7493 7528 -35 35 1144 2553689
24 Mar-05 8541 7648 893 893 1133 2480527
25 Apr-05 8029 7768 261 261 1099 2384039
26 May-05 8650 7887 763 763 1086 2314712
27 Jun-05 9960 8007 1953 1953 1118 2370219
28 Jul-05 7152 8127 -975 975 1113 2319520
29 Aug-05 7322 8247 -925 925 1106 2269028
30 Sep-05 9239 8367 872 872 1098 2218763
31 Oct-05 14123 8486 5637 5637 1245 3172070
32 Nov-05 9566 8606 960 960 1236 3101731
33 Dec-05 7341 8726 -1385 1385 1240 3065867
34 Jan-06 9404 8846 558 558 1220 2984859
35 Feb-06 8613 8966 -353 353 1196 2903129
36 Mar-06 9425 9085 340 340 1172 2825690
37 Apr-06 10905 9205 1700 1700 1186 2827411
38 May-06 9842 9325 517 517 1168 2760040
39 Jun-06 12259 9445 2814 2814 1211 2892342
40 Jul-06 9285 9565 -280 280 1187 2821987
41 Aug-06 7950 9684 -1734 1734 1201 2826526
42 Sep-06 11482 9804 1678 1678 1212 2826254
43 Oct-06 15817 9924 5893 5893 1321 3568148
44 Nov-06 10288 10044 244 244 1296 3488409
45 Dec-06 8743 10164 -1421 1421 1299 3455734
46 Jan-07 10419 10283 136 136 1274 3381010
47 Feb-07 8801 10403 -1602 1602 1281 3363689
48 Mar-07 8631 10523 -1892 1892 1294 3368186
49 Apr-07 9682 10643 -961 961 1287 3318286
50 May-07 9052 10763 -1711 1711 1295 3310441
51 Jun-07 11477 10882 595 595 1282 3252463
52 Jul-07 8242 11002 -2760 2760 1310 3336426
53 Aug-07 7674 11122 -3448 3448 1350 3497784
54 Sep-07 10339 11242 -903 903 1342 3448102
55 Oct-07 13919 11362 2557 2557 1364 3504328
56 Nov-07 10531 11481 -950 950 1357 3457879
57 Dec-07 8435 11601 -3166 3166 1388 3573083
58 Jan-08 9750 11721 -1971 1971 1399 3578455
59 Feb-08 8477 11841 -3364 3364 1432 3709580
60 Mar-08 9814 11961 -2147 2147 1444 3724548
61 Apr-08 10684 12080 -1396 1396 1443 3695453
62 May-08 11693 12200 -507 507 1428 3639998
63 Jun-08 14439 12320 2119 2119 1439 3653496
64 Jul-08 9081 12440 -3359 3359 1469 3772678
65 Aug-08 9781 12560 -2779 2779 1489 3833410
66 Sep-08 10307 12679 -2372 2372 1502 3860601
67 Oct-08 14800 12799 2001 2001 1510 3862733
68 Nov-08 7960 12919 -4959 4959 1561 4167561
69 Dec-08 6858 13039 -6181 6181 1628 4660806
70 Jan-09 9438 13159 -3721 3721 1657 4791971
71 Feb-09 8487 13278 -4791 4791 1702 5047814
72 Mar-09 10609 13398 -2789 2789 1717 5085750
73 Apr-09 11282 13518 -2236 2236 1724 5084567
74 May-09 12870 13638 -768 768 1711 5023821
75 Jun-09 17811 13758 4053 4053 1742 5175913
76 Jul-09 12128 13877 -1749 1749 1742 5148073
77 Aug-09 10161 13997 -3836 3836 1769 5272329
78 Sep-09 16359 14117 2242 2242 1775 5269183
79 Oct-09 17796 14237 3559 3559 1798 5362846
80 Nov-09 11604 14357 -2753 2753 1810 5390514
81 Dec-09 11517 14476 -2959 2959 1824 5432082
82 Jan-10 15925 14596 1329 1329 1818 5387373
83 Feb-10 13532 14716 -1184 1184 1810 5339352
84 Mar-10 14648 14836 -188 188 1791 5276208
85 Apr-10 15697 14956 741 741 1779 5220604
86 May-10 16653 15075 1578 1578 1776 5188842
87 Jun-10 15411 15195 216 216 1759 5129736
88 Jul-10 13534 15315 -1781 1781 1759 5107485
89 Aug-10 12454 15435 -2981 2981 1772 5149924
90 Sep-10 16300 15554 746 746 1761 5098878
91 Oct-10 23378 15674 7704 7704 1826 5695012
92 Nov-10 16975 15794 1181 1181 1819 5648268
93 Dec-10 15135 15914 -779 779 1808 5594057
94 Jan-11 19430 16034 3396 3396 1825 5657258
95 Feb-11 17534 16153 1381 1381 1820 5617769
96 Mar-11 17822 16273 1549 1549 1818 5584235
97 Apr-11 17740 16393 1347 1347 1813 5545368
98 May-11 17952 16513 1439 1439 1809 5509916
99 Jun-11 21552 16633 4919 4919 1840 5698702
100 Jul-11 15699 16752 -1053 1053 1832 5652813
101 Aug-11 15059 16872 -1813 1813 1832 5629399
102 Sep-11 23508 16992 6516 6516 1878 5990457
103 Oct-11 30519 17112 13407 13407 1990 7677453
104 Nov-11 16175 17232 -1057 1057 1981 7614367
105 Dec-11 15315 17351 -2036 2036 1982 7581347
106 Jan-12 17950 17471 479 479 1967 7511987
107 Feb-12 13534 17591 -4057 4057 1987 7595611
108 Mar-12 15054 17711 -2657 2657 1993 7590642
109 Apr-12 17831
110 May-12 17950
111 Jun-12 18070
112 Jul-12 18190
113 Aug-12 18310
114 Sep-12 18430
115 Oct-12 18549
116 Nov-12 18669
117 Dec-12 18789
118 Jan-13 18909
119 Feb-13 19029
120 Mar-13 19148
% error MAPE(t) TS(t)
4% 4% -1.00 35000
9% 6% -2.00
30000
6% 6% -3.00
27% 11% -4.00 25000
39% 17% -5.00
8% 15% -4.64 20000
36% 18% 0.13
15000
16% 18% 1.20
20% 18% 0.23 10000
1% 17% 0.19
5% 15% 0.54 5000
32% 17% 3.23
2% 16% 3.62 0
6% 15% 4.19
26% 16% 6.07
34% 17% 4.24
28% 18% 2.75
9% 17% 3.45
38% 18% 6.51
18% 18% 7.66
19% 18% 6.75 TS(t)
0% 17% 7.08
0% 17% 7.36 25.00
10% 16% 8.21 20.00
3% 16% 8.71 15.00
9% 16% 9.52 10.00
20% 16% 10.99
5.00
14% 16% 10.16
0.00
13% 16% 9.39
9% 15% 10.25 -5.00 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
40% 16% 13.57 -10.00
10% 16% 14.45 -15.00
19% 16% 13.28
-20.00
6% 16% 13.95
4% 15% 13.95
4% 15% 14.52
16% 15% 15.78
5% 15% 16.46
23% 15% 18.21
3% 15% 18.33
22% 15% 16.68
15% 15% 17.91
37% 15% 20.90
2% 15% 21.48
16% 15% 20.34
1% 15% 20.85
18% 15% 19.49
22% 15% 17.83
10% 15% 17.18
19% 15% 15.75
5% 15% 16.38
33% 15% 13.92
45% 16% 10.95
9% 16% 10.34
18% 16% 12.05
9% 16% 11.41
38% 16% 8.87
20% 16% 7.40
40% 16% 4.88
22% 17% 3.35
13% 16% 2.39
4% 16% 2.06
15% 16% 3.51
37% 17% 1.15
28% 17% -0.73
23% 17% -2.30
14% 17% -0.96
62% 17% -4.11
90% 19% -7.74
39% 19% -9.84
56% 19% -12.40
26% 19% -13.92
20% 19% -15.16
6% 19% -15.72
23% 19% -13.11
14% 19% -14.12
38% 19% -16.07
14% 19% -14.75
20% 19% -12.59
24% 19% -14.02
26% 20% -15.54
8% 19% -14.86
9% 19% -15.57
1% 19% -15.85
5% 19% -15.54
9% 19% -14.67
1% 19% -14.70
13% 19% -15.71
24% 19% -17.27
5% 18% -16.96
33% 19% -12.13
7% 18% -11.53
5% 18% -12.03
17% 18% -10.06
8% 18% -9.33
9% 18% -8.49
8% 18% -7.77
8% 18% -6.99
23% 18% -4.20
7% 18% -4.79
12% 18% -5.78
28% 18% -2.17
44% 18% 4.69
7% 18% 4.18
13% 18% 3.15
3% 18% 3.41
30% 18% 1.34
18% 18% 0.00
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
TS(t)
40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 10 3 1 0 6
Period Month MMFD Level(t) Trend(t) Forecast(t Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t)
0 4773 120
1 Apr-03 4698 4883 119 4892 -194 194 194 37811
2 May-03 4605 4982 118 5002 -397 397 296 97726
3 Jun-03 4859 5088 118 5101 -242 242 278 84593
4 Jul-03 4136 5153 115 5206 -1070 1070 476 349749
5 Aug-03 3872 5198 112 5268 -1396 1396 660 669384
6 Sep-03 5938 5341 113 5309 629 629 655 623666
7 Oct-03 8790 5621 121 5454 3336 3336 1038 2124415
8 Nov-03 6825 5796 124 5742 1083 1083 1043 2005404
9 Dec-03 4858 5867 122 5921 -1063 1063 1045 1908031
10 Jan-04 5907 5985 121 5989 -82 82 949 1717899
11 Feb-04 6386 6120 122 6106 280 280 888 1568846
12 Mar-04 9085 6384 129 6242 2843 2843 1051 2111586
13 Apr-04 6492 6512 129 6513 -21 21 972 1949191
14 May-04 6832 6651 130 6641 191 191 916 1812558
15 Jun-04 8867 6885 135 6780 2087 2087 994 1981960
16 Jul-04 4998 6918 130 7020 -2022 2022 1058 2113505
17 Aug-04 5305 6961 125 7048 -1743 1743 1099 2167927
18 Sep-04 7618 7113 127 7086 532 532 1067 2063189
19 Oct-04 11443 7450 137 7240 4203 4203 1232 2884518
20 Nov-04 8716 7643 140 7587 1129 1129 1227 2804028
21 Dec-04 6119 7700 136 7783 -1664 1664 1248 2802421
22 Jan-05 7408 7815 135 7836 -428 428 1211 2683367
23 Feb-05 7493 7927 134 7949 -456 456 1178 2575755
24 Mar-05 8541 8084 135 8060 481 481 1149 2478064
25 Apr-05 8029 8210 134 8219 -190 190 1110 2380386
26 May-05 8650 8359 135 8344 306 306 1079 2292436
27 Jun-05 9960 8568 139 8494 1466 1466 1094 2287089
28 Jul-05 7152 8629 135 8706 -1554 1554 1110 2291703
29 Aug-05 7322 8692 131 8764 -1442 1442 1122 2284342
30 Sep-05 9239 8844 132 8823 416 416 1098 2213971
31 Oct-05 14123 9233 145 8976 5147 5147 1229 2997129
32 Nov-05 9566 9388 146 9379 187 187 1196 2904567
33 Dec-05 7341 9424 140 9534 -2193 2193 1226 2962229
34 Jan-06 9404 9556 140 9564 -160 160 1195 2875858
35 Feb-06 8613 9642 137 9696 -1083 1083 1192 2827197
36 Mar-06 9425 9761 136 9779 -354 354 1169 2752142
37 Apr-06 10905 9948 139 9897 1008 1008 1164 2705201
38 May-06 9842 10074 138 10086 -244 244 1140 2635585
39 Jun-06 12259 10315 143 10212 2047 2047 1163 2675410
40 Jul-06 9285 10399 140 10458 -1173 1173 1163 2642917
41 Aug-06 7950 10410 134 10540 -2590 2590 1198 2742011
42 Sep-06 11482 10591 136 10544 938 938 1192 2697679
43 Oct-06 15817 10981 149 10727 5090 5090 1283 3237466
44 Nov-06 10288 11088 147 11130 -842 842 1273 3180013
45 Dec-06 8743 11110 141 11235 -2492 2492 1300 3247349
46 Jan-07 10419 11209 138 11251 -832 832 1290 3191802
47 Feb-07 8801 11220 132 11348 -2547 2547 1316 3261899
48 Mar-07 8631 11217 125 11353 -2722 2722 1346 3348258
49 Apr-07 9682 11259 121 11342 -1660 1660 1352 3336151
50 May-07 9052 11264 115 11380 -2328 2328 1372 3377818
51 Jun-07 11477 11384 116 11379 98 98 1347 3311775
52 Jul-07 8242 11337 107 11499 -3257 3257 1383 3452137
53 Aug-07 7674 11255 98 11444 -3770 3770 1428 3655164
54 Sep-07 10339 11303 95 11353 -1014 1014 1421 3606534
55 Oct-07 13919 11524 102 11398 2521 2521 1441 3656495
56 Nov-07 10531 11571 99 11626 -1095 1095 1435 3612612
57 Dec-07 8435 11509 91 11670 -3235 3235 1466 3732870
58 Jan-08 9750 11507 86 11599 -1849 1849 1473 3727486
59 Feb-08 8477 11438 79 11593 -3116 3116 1501 3828912
60 Mar-08 9814 11431 74 11516 -1702 1702 1504 3813381
61 Apr-08 10684 11464 72 11505 -821 821 1493 3761923
62 May-08 11693 11544 73 11536 157 157 1471 3701642
63 Jun-08 14439 11758 80 11617 2822 2822 1493 3769307
64 Jul-08 9081 11700 73 11838 -2757 2757 1512 3829146
65 Aug-08 9781 11673 68 11773 -1992 1992 1520 3831257
66 Sep-08 10307 11669 64 11741 -1434 1434 1519 3804356
67 Oct-08 14800 11887 72 11733 3067 3067 1542 3887940
68 Nov-08 7960 11759 62 11959 -3999 3999 1578 4065887
69 Dec-08 6858 11572 49 11821 -4963 4963 1627 4363866
70 Jan-09 9438 11513 44 11622 -2184 2184 1635 4369658
71 Feb-09 8487 11403 36 11557 -3070 3070 1655 4440831
72 Mar-09 10609 11398 34 11440 -831 831 1644 4388734
73 Apr-09 11282 11425 34 11432 -150 150 1623 4328924
74 May-09 12870 11529 37 11459 1411 1411 1620 4297341
75 Jun-09 17811 11879 53 11567 6244 6244 1682 4759933
76 Jul-09 12128 11942 54 11932 196 196 1662 4697808
77 Aug-09 10161 11904 49 11995 -1834 1834 1665 4680492
78 Sep-09 16359 12173 60 11952 4407 4407 1700 4869428
79 Oct-09 17796 12511 74 12233 5563 5563 1749 5199558
80 Nov-09 11604 12536 71 12585 -981 981 1739 5146588
81 Dec-09 11517 12553 69 12607 -1090 1090 1731 5097722
82 Jan-10 15925 12787 77 12621 3304 3304 1750 5168655
83 Feb-10 13532 12897 79 12863 669 669 1737 5111767
84 Mar-10 14648 13059 83 12976 1672 1672 1736 5084213
85 Apr-10 15697 13270 89 13142 2555 2555 1746 5101203
86 May-10 16653 13524 97 13359 3294 3294 1764 5168065
87 Jun-10 15411 13710 102 13621 1790 1790 1764 5145491
88 Jul-10 13534 13798 101 13812 -278 278 1747 5087901
89 Aug-10 12454 13827 98 13900 -1446 1446 1744 5054216
90 Sep-10 16300 14044 104 13925 2375 2375 1751 5060733
91 Oct-10 23378 14609 127 14147 9231 9231 1833 5941459
92 Nov-10 16975 14847 132 14735 2240 2240 1838 5931399
93 Dec-10 15135 14987 133 14980 155 155 1820 5867880
94 Jan-11 19430 15335 143 15120 4310 4310 1846 6003081
95 Feb-11 17534 15582 149 15479 2055 2055 1848 5984353
96 Mar-11 17822 15835 154 15730 2092 2092 1851 5967602
97 Apr-11 17740 16076 158 15988 1752 1752 1850 5937711
98 May-11 17952 16320 162 16234 1718 1718 1848 5907237
99 Jun-11 21552 16736 175 16482 5070 5070 1881 6107175
100 Jul-11 15699 16850 172 16911 -1212 1212 1874 6060791
101 Aug-11 15059 16924 167 17022 -1963 1963 1875 6038950
102 Sep-11 23508 17412 183 17091 6417 6417 1920 6383405
103 Oct-11 30519 18242 215 17595 12924 12924 2027 7942986
104 Nov-11 16175 18343 210 18457 -2282 2282 2029 7916685
105 Dec-11 15315 18391 202 18553 -3238 3238 2040 7941125
106 Jan-12 17950 18560 200 18593 -643 643 2027 7870103
107 Feb-12 13534 18499 187 18760 -5226 5226 2057 8051843
108 Mar-12 15054 18505 178 18686 -3632 3632 2072 8099444
109 Apr-12 18683
110 May-12 18860
111 Jun-12 19038
112 Jul-12 19216
113 Aug-12 19394
114 Sep-12 19572
115 Oct-12 19750
116 Nov-12 19928
117 Dec-12 20106
118 Jan-13 20284
119 Feb-13 20462
120 Mar-13 20640
% error MAPE(t) TS(t)
4% 4% -1.00 35000
9% 6% -2.00
30000
5% 6% -3.00
26% 11% -4.00 25000
36% 16% -5.00
11% 15% -4.08 20000
38% 18% 0.64
15000
16% 18% 1.68
22% 18% 0.66 10000
1% 17% 0.64
4% 16% 0.99 5000
31% 17% 3.55
0% 16% 3.81 0
3% 15% 4.25
24% 15% 6.02
40% 17% 3.74
33% 18% 2.02 Alpha 0.05
7% 17% 2.58 Beta 0.05
37% 18% 5.64
13% 18% 6.59
27% 18% 5.14 TS(t)
6% 18% 4.95
6% 17% 4.70 25.00
6% 17% 5.23 20.00
2% 16% 5.24 15.00
4% 16% 5.68 10.00
15% 16% 6.94 5.00
22% 16% 5.44 0.00
20% 16% 4.10 -5.00 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55
5% 16% 4.57 -10.00
36% 16% 8.27 -15.00
2% 16% 8.65 -20.00
30% 16% 6.65
-25.00
2% 16% 6.69
13% 16% 5.80 Data Table
4% 15% 5.61 Alpha 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
9% 15% 6.50 MAD 2072
2% 15% 6.42 MSE 8099444
17% 15% 8.06 MAPE 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
13% 15% 7.05
33% 15% 4.68
8% 15% 5.49 MSE
32% 16% 9.07 9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
MSE
9000000
8% 15% 8.48
8000000
29% 16% 6.39
7000000
8% 16% 5.79
6000000
29% 16% 3.74
32% 16% 1.64 5000000
17% 16% 0.40 4000000
26% 16% -1.30 3000000
1% 16% -1.25 2000000
40% 17% -3.58 1000000
49% 17% -6.10 0
10% 17% -6.85 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
18% 17% -5.00
10% 17% -5.79
38% 17% -7.87 Data Table
19% 17% -9.09 Beta 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
37% 18% -11.00 MAD 2072
17% 18% -12.11 MSE 8099444
8% 17% -12.75 MAPE 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
1% 17% -12.83
20% 17% -10.75
30% 17% -12.43
MSE
20% 18% -13.69 9000000
14% 17% -14.64 8000000
21% 17% -12.43 7000000
50% 18% -14.68 6000000
72% 19% -17.29
5000000
23% 19% -18.54
4000000
36% 19% -20.17
3000000
8% 19% -20.82
1% 19% -21.17 2000000
11% 19% -20.34 1000000
35% 19% -15.88 0
2% 19% -15.95 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
18% 19% -17.03
27% 19% -14.08
31% 19% -10.51
8% 19% -11.13
9% 19% -11.81
21% 19% -9.79
5% 18% -9.48
11% 18% -8.52
16% 18% -7.01
20% 18% -5.07
12% 18% -4.06
2% 18% -4.26
12% 18% -5.09
15% 18% -3.72
39% 18% 1.48
13% 18% 2.70
1% 18% 2.81
22% 18% 5.11
12% 18% 6.21
12% 18% 7.33
10% 18% 8.28
10% 18% 9.22
24% 18% 11.76
8% 18% 11.15
13% 18% 10.10
27% 18% 13.21
42% 18% 18.89
14% 18% 17.74
21% 18% 16.05
4% 18% 15.84
39% 18% 13.07
24% 18% 11.23
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 10 3 10 6
0.3 0.35
18% 19%
MAD
2500
2000
MAD
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
18% 17%
MAD
18%
2500
18%
2000
18%
1500 18%
18%
1000
17%
500 17%
17%
0
0.05 0
0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
MAPE
19%
19%
18%
18%
MAPE
19%
19%
18%
18%
18%
18%
18%
17%
17%
17%
17%
25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
MAPE
18%
18%
18%
18%
18%
17%
17%
17%
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.80473
R Square 0.64759
Adjusted R 0.644265
Standard E 2780.982
Observatio 108
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.51E+09 1.51E+09 194.7858 9.419E-26
Residual 106 8.2E+08 7733861
Total 107 2.33E+09
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 4772.652 538.9386 8.855652 2.098E-14 3704.154 5841.151 3704.154 5841.151
X Variable 119.7983 8.583646 13.95657 9.419E-26 102.7803 136.8162 102.7803 136.8162
Month Period MMFD Deseasonal Deseasone Deseasonal Seasonal Est Forecast
ized d Trend ized Factor Seasonal (Ft)
Demand (Static) Demand Factor
(Level)
0 4862 118
Apr-03 1 4698 4980 0.94 0.99 4953
May-03 2 4605 5098 0.90 1.01 5129
Jun-03 3 4859 5215 0.93 1.18 6179
Jul-03 4 4136 5333 0.78 0.84 4478
Aug-03 5 3872 5451 0.71 0.79 4301
Sep-03 6 5938 5569 1.07 1.09 6050
Oct-03 7 8790 5905 5686 1.55 1.48 8436
Nov-03 8 6825 6072 5804 1.18 0.99 5736
Dec-03 9 4858 6332 5922 0.82 0.81 4775
Jan-04 10 5907 6535 6039 0.98 0.99 6008
Feb-04 11 6386 6631 6157 1.04 0.89 5463
Mar-04 12 9085 6760 6275 1.45 1.00 6265
Apr-04 13 6492 6941 6393 1.02 6358
May-04 14 6832 7130 6510 1.05 6551
Jun-04 15 8867 7261 6628 1.34 7853
Jul-04 16 4998 7377 6746 0.74 5664
Aug-04 17 5305 7485 6864 0.77 5416
Sep-04 18 7618 7509 6981 1.09 7585
Oct-04 19 11443 7550 7099 1.61 10532
Nov-04 20 8716 7690 7217 1.21 7132
Dec-04 21 6119 7811 7335 0.83 5914
Jan-05 22 7408 7946 7452 0.99 7413
Feb-05 23 7493 8120 7570 0.99 6716
Mar-05 24 8541 8272 7688 1.11 7675
Apr-05 25 8029 8451 7806 1.03 7764
May-05 26 8650 8598 7923 1.09 7973
Jun-05 27 9960 8684 8041 1.24 9526
Jul-05 28 7152 8819 8159 0.88 6850
Aug-05 29 7322 8948 8277 0.88 6531
Sep-05 30 9239 9032 8394 1.10 9121
Oct-05 31 14123 9189 8512 1.66 12629
Nov-05 32 9566 9358 8630 1.11 8528
Dec-05 33 7341 9503 8748 0.84 7054
Jan-06 34 9404 9688 8865 1.06 8819
Feb-06 35 8613 9803 8983 0.96 7969
Mar-06 36 9425 9923 9101 1.04 9086
Apr-06 37 10905 10087 9218 1.18 9169
May-06 38 9842 10188 9336 1.05 9394
Jun-06 39 12259 10276 9454 1.30 11200
Jul-06 40 9285 10377 9572 0.97 8037
Aug-06 41 7950 10427 9689 0.82 7645
Sep-06 42 11482 10402 9807 1.17 10656
Oct-06 43 15817 10318 9925 1.59 14725
Nov-06 44 10288 10234 10043 1.02 9924
Dec-06 45 8743 10168 10160 0.86 8193
Jan-07 46 10419 10092 10278 1.01 10224
Feb-07 47 8801 10037 10396 0.85 9223
Mar-07 48 8631 9978 10514 0.82 10497
Apr-07 49 9682 9851 10631 0.91 10574
May-07 50 9052 9782 10749 0.84 10816
Jun-07 51 11477 9780 10867 1.06 12874
Jul-07 52 8242 9739 10985 0.75 9223
Aug-07 53 7674 9698 11102 0.69 8760
Sep-07 54 10339 9733 11220 0.92 12191
Oct-07 55 13919 9824 11338 1.23 16821
Nov-07 56 10531 9976 11456 0.92 11321
Dec-07 57 8435 10210 11573 0.73 9332
Jan-08 58 9750 10368 11691 0.83 11629
Feb-08 59 8477 10491 11809 0.72 10476
Mar-08 60 9814 10577 11927 0.82 11907
Apr-08 61 10684 10613 12044 0.89 11980
May-08 62 11693 10542 12162 0.96 12238
Jun-08 63 14439 10369 12280 1.18 14548
Jul-08 64 9081 10291 12398 0.73 10409
Aug-08 65 9781 10278 12515 0.78 9875
Sep-08 66 10307 10312 12633 0.82 13726
Oct-08 67 14800 10370 12751 1.16 18917
Nov-08 68 7960 10444 12868 0.62 12717
Dec-08 69 6858 10633 12986 0.53 10472
Jan-09 70 9438 10901 13104 0.72 13035
Feb-09 71 8487 11043 13222 0.64 11730
Mar-09 72 10609 11311 13339 0.80 13318
Apr-09 73 11282 11688 13457 0.84 13385
May-09 74 12870 11965 13575 0.95 13659
Jun-09 75 17811 12311 13693 1.30 16222
Jul-09 76 12128 12775 13810 0.88 11596
Aug-09 77 10161 13256 13928 0.73 10990
Sep-09 78 16359 13634 14046 1.16 15261
Oct-09 79 17796 13987 14164 1.26 21013
Nov-09 80 11604 14328 14281 0.81 14113
Dec-09 81 11517 14386 14399 0.80 11611
Jan-10 82 15925 14345 14517 1.10 14440
Feb-10 83 13532 14499 14635 0.92 12983
Mar-10 84 14648 14592 14752 0.99 14728
Apr-10 85 15697 14822 14870 1.06 14790
May-10 86 16653 15278 14988 1.11 15081
Jun-10 87 15411 15653 15106 1.02 17896
Jul-10 88 13534 15950 15223 0.89 12782
Aug-10 89 12454 16262 15341 0.81 12105
Sep-10 90 16300 16561 15459 1.05 16796
Oct-10 91 23378 16779 15577 1.50 23110
Nov-10 92 16975 16918 15694 1.08 15509
Dec-10 93 15135 17228 15812 0.96 12750
Jan-11 94 19430 17574 15930 1.22 15846
Feb-11 95 17534 17773 16047 1.09 14237
Mar-11 96 17822 18182 16165 1.10 16139
Apr-11 97 17740 18780 16283 1.09 16196
May-11 98 17952 19044 16401 1.09 16503
Jun-11 99 21552 19018 16518 1.30 19570
Jul-11 100 15699 18964 16636 0.94 13968
Aug-11 101 15059 18735 16754 0.90 13219
Sep-11 102 23508 18453 16872 1.39 18331
Oct-11 103 30519 16989 1.80 25206
Nov-11 104 16175 17107 0.95 16906
Dec-11 105 15315 17225 0.89 13890
Jan-12 106 17950 17343 1.04 17251
Feb-12 107 13534 17460 0.78 15490
Mar-12 108 15054 17578 0.86 17550
Apr-12 109 17696 17601
May-12 110 17814 17924
Jun-12 111 17931 21244
Jul-12 112 18049 15155
Aug-12 113 18167 14334
Sep-12 114 18285 19867
Oct-12 115 18402 27302
Nov-12 116 18520 18302
Dec-12 117 18638 15029
Jan-13 118 18756 18657
Feb-13 119 18873 16744
Mar-13 120 18991 18960
Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t) MSE(t) % error MAPE(t) TS(t)
-255 255 255 65077 5% 5% -1 35000

-524 524 390 169958 11% 8% -2
30000
-1320 1320 700 693817 27% 15% -3
-342 342 610 549575 8% 13% -4 25000
-429 429 574 476444 11% 13% -5
-112 112 497 399140 2% 11% -6 20000
354 354 477 359996 4% 10% -6
15000
1089 1089 553 463325 16% 11% -3
83 83 501 412607 2% 10% -3 10000
-101 101 461 372359 2% 9% -3
923 923 503 416039 14% 9% -1 5000
2820 2820 696 1044184 31% 11% 3
0
134 134 653 965234 2% 10% 4
281 281 626 901932 4% 10% 4
1014 1014 652 910409 11% 10% 6
-666 666 653 881244 13% 10% 5
-111 111 621 830127 2% 10% 5
33 33 588 784067 0% 9% 5
911 911 605 786437 8% 9% 6 40
1584 1584 654 872578 18% 10% 8 30
205 205 633 833018 3% 9% 9
20
-5 5 604 795155 0% 9% 9
777 777 612 786833 10% 9% 10 10
866 866 622 785271 10% 9% 12 0
265 265 608 756675 3% 9% 12 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25
-10
677 677 611 745221 8% 9% 13
434 434 604 724582 4% 9% 14 -20
302 302 593 701951 4% 8% 15 -30
791 791 600 699348 11% 9% 16
-40
118 118 584 676503 1% 8% 17
1494 1494 614 726715 11% 8% 18
1038 1038 627 737663 11% 8% 20
287 287 617 717808 4% 8% 20
585 585 616 706778 6% 8% 21
644 644 616 698417 7% 8% 22
339 339 609 682210 4% 8% 23
1736 1736 639 745219 16% 8% 25
448 448 634 730882 5% 8% 26
1059 1059 645 740880 9% 8% 27
1248 1248 660 761308 13% 8% 28
305 305 651 745004 4% 8% 29
826 826 656 743519 7% 8% 30
1092 1092 666 753967 7% 8% 31
364 364 659 739835 4% 8% 32
550 550 656 730113 6% 8% 33
195 195 646 715068 2% 8% 34
-422 422 642 703642 5% 8% 34
-1866 1866 667 761487 22% 8% 30
-892 892 672 762198 9% 8% 28
-1764 1764 694 809186 19% 8% 25
-1397 1397 707 831598 12% 8% 22
-981 981 713 834117 12% 9% 21
-1086 1086 720 840638 14% 9% 19
-1852 1852 741 888581 18% 9% 16
-2902 2902 780 1025551 21% 9% 11
-790 790 780 1018374 7% 9% 10
-897 897 782 1014639 11% 9% 9
-1879 1879 801 1058045 19% 9% 7
-1999 1999 821 1107870 24% 9% 4
-2093 2093 843 1162425 21% 10% 1
-1296 1296 850 1170890 12% 10% 0
-545 545 845 1156789 5% 10% -1
-109 109 833 1138616 1% 9% -1
-1328 1328 841 1148400 15% 10% -2
-94 94 830 1130868 1% 9% -3
-3419 3419 869 1290855 33% 10% -6
-4117 4117 917 1524600 28% 10% -11
-4757 4757 974 1834956 60% 11% -15
-3614 3614 1012 1997632 53% 11% -18
-3597 3597 1049 2153914 38% 12% -21
-3243 3243 1080 2271695 38% 12% -23
-2709 2709 1103 2342050 26% 12% -25
-2103 2103 1116 2370550 19% 12% -27
-789 789 1112 2346935 6% 12% -27
1589 1589 1118 2349309 9% 12% -26
532 532 1110 2322124 4% 12% -26
-829 829 1107 2300887 8% 12% -26
1098 1098 1107 2286839 7% 12% -25
-3217 3217 1133 2388930 18% 12% -28
-2509 2509 1151 2437772 22% 12% -29
-94 94 1138 2407785 1% 12% -30
1485 1485 1142 2405304 9% 12% -28
549 549 1135 2379951 4% 12% -28
-80 80 1122 2351695 1% 12% -29
907 907 1120 2333700 6% 12% -28
1572 1572 1125 2335298 9% 12% -26
-2485 2485 1140 2379428 16% 12% -28
752 752 1136 2358814 6% 12% -28
349 349 1127 2333682 3% 12% -27
-496 496 1120 2310489 3% 12% -28
268 268 1111 2285891 1% 11% -28
1466 1466 1115 2284388 9% 11% -27
2385 2385 1128 2320965 16% 11% -24
3584 3584 1154 2432943 18% 12% -21
3297 3297 1177 2521767 19% 12% -17
1683 1683 1182 2525006 9% 12% -16
1544 1544 1186 2523564 9% 12% -14
1449 1449 1189 2519247 8% 11% -13
1982 1982 1197 2533490 9% 11% -11
1731 1731 1202 2538105 11% 11% -10
1840 1840 1208 2546480 12% 11% -8
5177 5177 1247 2784222 22% 12% -4
5313 5313 1287 3031264 17% 12% 0
-731 731 1281 3007252 5% 12% 0
1425 1425 1283 2997957 9% 12% 1
699 699 1277 2974281 4% 11% 1
-1956 1956 1284 2982252 14% 11% 0
-2496 2496 1295 3012302 17% 12% -2
MM
De
Fo
TS(t)
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 9 7 10 0 1 0 3 10 6 1 0 9
MMFD
Deseasonalized Demand (Level)
Forecast (Ft)
TS(t)
4 9 7 10 0 1 0 3 10 6 1 0 9
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.93474936246238
R Square 0.873756370623825
Adjusted R 0.872413353290036
Standard E 1253.33291496101
Observatio 96
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.02E+09 1.02E+09 650.592 5.009E-44
Residual 94 1.48E+08 1570843
Total 95 1.17E+09
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
Intercept 4862.07181207422 282.23 17.22734 7.739E-31 4301.698 5422.446 4301.698 5422.446
X Variable 117.741116725448 4.616085 25.50671 5.009E-44 108.5758 126.9065 108.5758 126.9065
Upper 95.0%
Period Month MMFD Level(t) Trend(t) Seasonal Forecast(t0Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t)
Factor
0 4862 118
1 Apr-03 4698 4967 117 0.99 4953 -255 255 255
2 May-03 4605 5059 116 1.01 5116 -511 511 383
3 Jun-03 4859 5121 113 1.18 6130 -1271 1271 679
4 Jul-03 4136 5219 112 0.84 4395 -259 259 574
5 Aug-03 3872 5310 111 0.79 4206 -334 334 526
6 Sep-03 5938 5423 111 1.09 5890 48 48 446
7 Oct-03 8790 5554 112 1.48 8211 579 579 465
8 Nov-03 6825 5729 116 0.99 5600 1225 1225 560
9 Dec-03 4858 5853 116 0.81 4713 145 145 514
10 Jan-04 5907 5968 116 0.99 5938 -31 31 466
11 Feb-04 6386 6139 119 0.89 5397 989 989 513
12 Mar-04 9085 6400 126 1.00 6248 2837 2837 707
13 Apr-04 6492 6527 126 0.99 6475 17 17 654
14 May-04 6832 6661 126 1.00 6662 170 170 619
15 Jun-04 8867 6826 128 1.17 7961 906 906 638
16 Jul-04 4998 6905 126 0.84 5822 -824 824 650
17 Aug-04 5305 7016 125 0.79 5526 -221 221 625
18 Sep-04 7618 7135 125 1.09 7762 -144 144 598
19 Oct-04 11443 7281 126 1.49 10806 637 637 600
20 Nov-04 8716 7473 129 1.00 7395 1321 1321 636
21 Dec-04 6119 7600 129 0.81 6139 -20 20 607
22 Jan-05 7408 7715 128 0.99 7687 -279 279 592
23 Feb-05 7493 7870 130 0.89 7019 474 474 587
24 Mar-05 8541 8019 131 1.02 8155 386 386 579
25 Apr-05 8029 8146 130 0.99 8087 -58 58 558
26 May-05 8650 8294 131 1.00 8299 351 351 550
27 Jun-05 9960 8427 131 1.18 9936 24 24 530
28 Jul-05 7152 8560 131 0.83 7117 35 35 513
29 Aug-05 7322 8724 133 0.78 6819 503 503 512
30 Sep-05 9239 8839 132 1.09 9618 -379 379 508
31 Oct-05 14123 8996 133 1.49 13392 731 731 515
32 Nov-05 9566 9148 134 1.01 9191 375 375 511
33 Dec-05 7341 9273 134 0.81 7495 -154 154 500
34 Jan-06 9404 9410 134 0.99 9339 65 65 487
35 Feb-06 8613 9546 134 0.90 8567 46 46 474
36 Mar-06 9425 9658 133 1.02 9891 -466 466 474
37 Apr-06 10905 9851 136 0.99 9712 1193 1193 494
38 May-06 9842 9977 136 1.00 10033 -191 191 486
39 Jun-06 12259 10127 136 1.18 11927 332 332 482
40 Jul-06 9285 10308 138 0.83 8537 748 748 488
41 Aug-06 7950 10429 138 0.79 8225 -275 275 483
42 Sep-06 11482 10568 138 1.08 11454 28 28 472
43 Oct-06 15817 10699 137 1.50 16022 -205 205 466
44 Nov-06 10288 10804 136 1.01 10931 -643 643 470
45 Dec-06 8743 10935 135 0.81 8825 -82 82 462
46 Jan-07 10419 11042 134 0.99 10994 -575 575 464
47 Feb-07 8801 11107 131 0.90 10035 -1234 1234 480
48 Mar-07 8631 11099 124 1.02 11456 -2825 2825 529
49 Apr-07 9682 11147 120 1.00 11197 -1515 1515 549
50 May-07 9052 11154 114 1.00 11309 -2257 2257 583
51 Jun-07 11477 11191 110 1.18 13307 -1830 1830 608
52 Jul-07 8242 11230 107 0.84 9440 -1198 1198 619
53 Aug-07 7674 11258 103 0.79 8911 -1237 1237 631
54 Sep-07 10339 11270 98 1.08 12316 -1977 1977 656
55 Oct-07 13919 11265 93 1.50 17003 -3084 3084 700
56 Nov-07 10531 11313 91 1.01 11425 -894 894 703
57 Dec-07 8435 11357 89 0.81 9195 -760 760 704
58 Jan-08 9750 11366 85 0.99 11339 -1589 1589 720
59 Feb-08 8477 11353 80 0.89 10221 -1744 1744 737
60 Mar-08 9814 11348 75 1.01 11516 -1702 1702 753
61 Apr-08 10684 11391 74 0.99 11324 -640 640 751
62 May-08 11693 11480 75 0.99 11397 296 296 744
63 Jun-08 14439 11592 76 1.17 13555 884 884 746
64 Jul-08 9081 11632 75 0.83 9687 -606 606 744
65 Aug-08 9781 11748 77 0.78 9141 640 640 742
66 Sep-08 10307 11712 71 1.08 12720 -2413 2413 768
67 Oct-08 14800 11693 67 1.48 17471 -2671 2671 796
68 Nov-08 7960 11569 57 1.00 11785 -3825 3825 841
69 Dec-08 6858 11472 49 0.80 9337 -2479 2479 864
70 Jan-09 9438 11424 45 0.98 11336 -1898 1898 879
71 Feb-09 8487 11375 40 0.89 10154 -1667 1667 890
72 Mar-09 10609 11374 38 1.00 11417 -808 808 889
73 Apr-09 11282 11412 38 0.99 11282 0 0 877
74 May-09 12870 11524 41 1.00 11397 1473 1473 885
75 Jun-09 17811 11744 50 1.18 13610 4201 4201 929
76 Jul-09 12128 11937 58 0.83 9762 2366 2366 948
77 Aug-09 10161 12043 60 0.78 9397 764 764 946
78 Sep-09 16359 12266 68 1.07 12902 3457 3457 978
79 Oct-09 17796 12322 67 1.47 18153 -357 357 970
80 Nov-09 11604 12358 66 0.99 12221 -617 617 966
81 Dec-09 11517 12529 71 0.79 9850 1667 1667 974
82 Jan-10 15925 12786 80 0.98 12299 3626 3626 1007
83 Feb-10 13532 12993 87 0.88 11301 2231 2231 1021
84 Mar-10 14648 13161 91 1.00 13039 1609 1609 1028
85 Apr-10 15697 13383 97 0.99 13101 2596 2596 1047
86 May-10 16653 13638 105 1.00 13500 3153 3153 1071
87 Jun-10 15411 13701 103 1.19 16406 -995 995 1070
88 Jul-10 13534 13923 109 0.84 11556 1978 1978 1081
89 Aug-10 12454 14122 114 0.79 11035 1419 1419 1085
90 Sep-10 16300 14279 116 1.08 15365 935 935 1083
91 Oct-10 23378 14470 120 1.47 21167 2211 2211 1095
92 Nov-10 16975 14723 126 0.98 14357 2618 2618 1112
93 Dec-10 15135 15053 136 0.80 11867 3268 3268 1135
94 Jan-11 19430 15412 148 0.99 15031 4399 4399 1170
95 Feb-11 17534 15770 158 0.89 13794 3740 3740 1197
96 Mar-11 17822 16021 163 1.00 15971 1851 1851 1204
97 Apr-11 17740 16263 167 1.00 16148 1592 1592 1208
98 May-11 17952 16495 170 1.01 16634 1318 1318 1209
99 Jun-11 21552 16737 174 1.19 19837 1715 1715 1214
100 Jul-11 15699 16995 178 0.84 14270 1429 1429 1216
101 Aug-11 15059 17266 182 0.79 13587 1472 1472 1219
102 Sep-11 23508 17662 193 1.08 18887 4621 4621 1252
103 Oct-11 30519 17995 200 1.48 26384 4135 4135 1280
104 Nov-11 16175 18100 195 0.99 18059 -1884 1884 1286
105 Dec-11 15315 18327 197 0.81 14810 505 505 1278
106 Jan-12 17950 18492 195 1.00 18581 -631 631 1272
107 Feb-12 13534 18507 186 0.90 16778 -3244 3244 1291
108 Mar-12 15054 18505 177 1.01 18845 -3791 3791 1314
109 Apr-12 1.00 18728
110 May-12 1.02 19164
111 Jun-12 1.20 22751
112 Jul-12 0.85 16290
113 Aug-12 0.80 15419
114 Sep-12 1.09 21423
115 Oct-12 1.49 29390
116 Nov-12 0.99 19673
117 Dec-12 0.81 16295
118 Jan-13 1.00 20305
119 Feb-13 0.89 18191
120 Mar-13 1.00 20595
MSE(t) % error MAPE(t) TS(t)
65077 5% 5% -1.00 35000

162947 11% 8% -2.00
647444 26% 14% -3.00 30000
502315 6% 12% -4.00
25000
424210 9% 12% -5.00
353889 1% 10% -5.79 20000
351143 7% 9% -4.31
494842 18% 10% -1.39 15000
442209 3% 10% -1.23
10000
398082 1% 9% -1.43
450802 15% 9% 0.63 5000
1084105 31% 11% 4.47
1000735 0% 10% 4.86 0
931322 2% 10% 5.41
923979 10% 10% 6.67
908709 16% 10% 5.28
858134 4% 10% 5.14 Alpha 0.05
811615 2% 9% 5.13 Beta 0.05
790251 6% 9% 6.17 Gamma 0.05
838051 15% 9% 7.90
798162 0% 9% 8.25
765417 4% 9% 7.98
741916 6% 9% 8.86
717201 5% 9% 9.65 30.00
688646 1% 8% 9.91
20.00
666908 4% 8% 10.69
642229 0% 8% 11.13 10.00
619336 0% 7% 11.58
0.00
606706 7% 7% 12.57
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46
591276 4% 7% 11.94 -10.00
589449 5% 7% 13.19
-20.00
575418 4% 7% 14.04
558698 2% 7% 14.03 -30.00
542391 1% 7% 14.54
-40.00
526954 1% 7% 15.02
518343 5% 7% 14.04 Data Table
542781 11% 7% 15.91 Alpha 0.05 0.1 0.15
529460 2% 7% 15.77 MAD 1314
518713 3% 7% 16.59 MSE 3106702
519731 8% 7% 17.90 MAPE 11% 10% 9%
508893 3% 6% 17.52
496795 0% 6% 17.98
MSE
3500000
3000000
486221 1% 6% 17.78 MSE
484565 6% 6% 16.26
3500000
473946 1% 6% 16.39
470835 6% 6% 15.06 3000000
493205 14% 6% 11.98 2500000
649180 33% 7% 5.54
682793 16% 7% 2.58 2000000
770998 25% 7% -1.44 1500000
821568 16% 8% -4.39
1000000
833348 15% 8% -6.25
846492 16% 8% -8.09 500000
903184 19% 8% -10.80
0
1059645 22% 8% -14.52 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
1054995 8% 8% -15.72
1046627 9% 8% -16.78 Data Table
1072088 16% 8% -18.63 Beta 0.05 0.1 0.15
1105462 21% 9% -20.56 MAD 1314
1135323 17% 9% -22.38 MSE 3106702
1123418 6% 9% -23.29 MAPE 11% 11% 11%
1106707 3% 9% -23.12
1101544 6% 9% -21.87
1090070 7% 9% -22.75
MSE
1079608 7% 9% -21.93 3500000
1151459 23% 9% -24.35
3000000
1240724 18% 9% -26.84
1437637 48% 9% -29.97 2500000
1505861 36% 10% -32.01 2000000
1535834 20% 10% -33.63
1500000
1553338 20% 10% -35.09
1540832 8% 10% -36.04 1000000
1519725 0% 10% -36.54
500000
1528527 11% 10% -34.54
1743477 24% 10% -28.38 0
1794179 20% 10% -25.32 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0
1778465 8% 10% -24.57 Data Table
1908905 21% 10% -20.23 Gamma 0.05 0.1 0.15
1886356 2% 10% -20.76 MAD 1314
1867537 5% 10% -21.49 MSE 3106702
1878784 14% 10% -19.59 MAPE 11% 11% 11%
2016233 23% 10% -15.36
2051887 16% 11% -12.95
2058293 11% 11% -11.30 MSE
2113381 17% 11% -8.62
3500000
2204439 19% 11% -5.48
2190484 6% 11% -6.41 3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
MSE
3500000
3000000
2210041 15% 11% -4.52 2500000
2207835 11% 11% -3.20
2193013 6% 11% -2.34 2000000
2222643 9% 11% -0.30 1500000
2272972 15% 11% 2.06
1000000
2363394 22% 11% 4.90
2544102 23% 11% 8.52 500000
2664562 21% 11% 11.45
0
2672510 10% 11% 12.92 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
2671075 9% 11% 14.20
2661550 7% 11% 15.27
2664382 8% 11% 16.62
2658145 9% 11% 17.77
2653275 10% 11% 18.94
2836597 20% 11% 22.13
2975021 14% 11% 24.87
2980542 12% 11% 23.29
2954586 3% 11% 23.83
2930474 4% 11% 23.44
3001409 24% 11% 20.60
3106702 25% 11% 17.35
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
TS(t)
25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 1 0 3 1 0 6
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
9% 9% 8% 8%
MSE MAD
1400
1200
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
11% 10% 10% 10%
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
11% 11% 11% 11%
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
MSE MAD
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.3
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
03 106
MAPE
12%
10%
MAPE
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0.25 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
MAPE
12%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
MAPE
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
MAPE
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
5 0.3 0.35 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3 0.35
Period Month MMFD Level(t) Trend(t) Seasonal Forecast(t0Error (D-F) Abs Error MAD(t)
Factor
0 4862 118
1 Apr-03 4698 4812 118 0.99 4953 -255 255 255
2 May-03 4605 4698 118 1.01 4960 -355 355 305
3 Jun-03 4859 4348 118 1.18 5705 -846 846 486
4 Jul-03 4136 4767 118 0.84 3749 387 387 461
5 Aug-03 3872 4900 118 0.79 3854 18 18 372
6 Sep-03 5938 5311 118 1.09 5451 487 487 391
7 Oct-03 8790 5754 118 1.48 8054 736 736 441
8 Nov-03 6825 6550 118 0.99 5802 1023 1023 513
9 Dec-03 4858 6246 118 0.81 5377 -519 519 514
10 Jan-04 5907 6085 118 0.99 6330 -423 423 505
11 Feb-04 6386 6855 118 0.89 5503 883 883 539
12 Mar-04 9085 8367 118 1.00 6962 2123 2123 671
13 Apr-04 6492 7201 118 0.99 8439 -1947 1947 769
14 May-04 6832 6972 118 1.01 7365 -533 533 752
15 Jun-04 8867 7349 118 1.18 8400 467 467 733
16 Jul-04 4998 6474 118 0.84 6269 -1271 1271 767
17 Aug-04 5305 6678 118 0.79 5201 104 104 728
18 Sep-04 7618 6937 118 1.09 7384 234 234 701
19 Oct-04 11443 7486 118 1.48 10467 976 976 715
20 Nov-04 8716 8401 118 0.99 7514 1202 1202 739
21 Dec-04 6119 7909 118 0.81 6869 -750 750 740
22 Jan-05 7408 7647 118 0.99 7984 -576 576 733
23 Feb-05 7493 8211 118 0.89 6888 605 605 727
24 Mar-05 8541 8477 118 1.00 8315 226 226 706
25 Apr-05 8029 8252 118 0.99 8549 -520 520 699
26 May-05 8650 8519 118 1.01 8422 228 228 681
27 Jun-05 9960 8486 118 1.18 10232 -272 272 665
28 Jul-05 7152 8547 118 0.84 7224 -72 72 644
29 Aug-05 7322 9068 118 0.79 6837 485 485 639
30 Sep-05 9239 8738 118 1.09 9981 -742 742 642
31 Oct-05 14123 9291 118 1.48 13139 984 984 653
32 Nov-05 9566 9586 118 0.99 9298 268 268 641
33 Dec-05 7341 9311 118 0.81 7825 -484 484 636
34 Jan-06 9404 9445 118 0.99 9379 25 25 618
35 Feb-06 8613 9658 118 0.89 8484 129 129 604
36 Mar-06 9425 9556 118 1.00 9760 -335 335 597
37 Apr-06 10905 10519 118 0.99 9622 1283 1283 615
38 May-06 9842 10076 118 1.01 10703 -861 861 622
39 Jun-06 12259 10295 118 1.18 12077 182 182 611
40 Jul-06 9285 10836 118 0.84 8743 542 542 609
41 Aug-06 7950 10378 118 0.79 8643 -693 693 611
42 Sep-06 11482 10543 118 1.09 11404 78 78 598
43 Oct-06 15817 10661 118 1.48 15816 1 1 584
44 Nov-06 10288 10537 118 0.99 10652 -364 364 579
45 Dec-06 8743 10778 118 0.81 8592 151 151 570
46 Jan-07 10419 10619 118 0.99 10838 -419 419 567
47 Feb-07 8801 10202 118 0.89 9526 -725 725 570
48 Mar-07 8631 9222 118 1.00 10303 -1672 1672 593
49 Apr-07 9682 9598 118 0.99 9290 392 392 589
50 May-07 9052 9244 118 1.01 9776 -724 724 592
51 Jun-07 11477 9575 118 1.18 11091 386 386 588
52 Jul-07 8242 9774 118 0.84 8139 103 103 578
53 Aug-07 7674 9783 118 0.79 7805 -131 131 570
54 Sep-07 10339 9648 118 1.09 10757 -418 418 567
55 Oct-07 13919 9514 118 1.48 14489 -570 570 567
56 Nov-07 10531 10303 118 0.99 9518 1013 1013 575
57 Dec-07 8435 10447 118 0.81 8403 32 32 565
58 Jan-08 9750 10065 118 0.99 10509 -759 759 569
59 Feb-08 8477 9771 118 0.89 9033 -556 556 569
60 Mar-08 9814 9850 118 1.00 9873 -59 59 560
61 Apr-08 10684 10475 118 0.99 9915 769 769 563
62 May-08 11693 11267 118 1.01 10659 1034 1034 571
63 Jun-08 14439 11911 118 1.18 13487 952 952 577
64 Jul-08 9081 11233 118 0.84 10100 -1019 1019 584
65 Aug-08 9781 12036 118 0.79 8956 825 825 588
66 Sep-08 10307 10405 118 1.09 13205 -2898 2898 623
67 Oct-08 14800 10164 118 1.48 15612 -812 812 626
68 Nov-08 7960 8822 118 0.99 10161 -2201 2201 649
69 Dec-08 6858 8655 118 0.81 7209 -351 351 644
70 Jan-09 9438 9241 118 0.99 8726 712 712 645
71 Feb-09 8487 9495 118 0.89 8303 184 184 639
72 Mar-09 10609 10277 118 1.00 9597 1012 1012 644
73 Apr-09 11282 11016 118 0.99 10339 943 943 648
74 May-09 12870 12220 118 1.01 11203 1667 1667 662
75 Jun-09 17811 14105 118 1.18 14617 3194 3194 696
76 Jul-09 12128 14368 118 0.84 11942 186 186 689
77 Aug-09 10161 13432 118 0.79 11430 -1269 1269 697
78 Sep-09 16359 14537 118 1.09 14722 1637 1637 709
79 Oct-09 17796 12911 118 1.48 21742 -3946 3946 750
80 Nov-09 11604 12186 118 0.99 12876 -1272 1272 756
81 Dec-09 11517 13601 118 0.81 9921 1596 1596 766
82 Jan-10 15925 15220 118 0.99 13646 2279 2279 785
83 Feb-10 13532 15282 118 0.89 13607 -75 75 776
84 Mar-10 14648 14923 118 1.00 15375 -727 727 776
85 Apr-10 15697 15526 118 0.99 14960 737 737 775
86 May-10 16653 16238 118 1.01 15741 912 912 777
87 Jun-10 15411 14161 118 1.18 19377 -3966 3966 814
88 Jul-10 13534 15485 118 0.84 11989 1545 1545 822
89 Aug-10 12454 15721 118 0.79 12311 143 143 814
90 Sep-10 16300 15290 118 1.09 17210 -910 910 815
91 Oct-10 23378 15637 118 1.48 22860 518 518 812
92 Nov-10 16975 16687 118 0.99 15569 1406 1406 818
93 Dec-10 15135 18092 118 0.81 13551 1584 1584 827
94 Jan-11 19430 19077 118 0.99 18114 1316 1316 832
95 Feb-11 17534 19568 118 0.89 17029 505 505 828
96 Mar-11 17822 18483 118 1.00 19654 -1832 1832 839
97 Apr-11 17740 18099 118 0.99 18501 -761 761 838
98 May-11 17952 17971 118 1.01 18330 -378 378 833
99 Jun-11 21552 18156 118 1.18 21430 122 122 826
100 Jul-11 15699 18551 118 0.84 15343 356 356 822
101 Aug-11 15059 18942 118 0.79 14731 328 328 817
102 Sep-11 23508 20748 118 1.09 20709 2799 2799 836
103 Oct-11 30519 20672 118 1.48 30957 -438 438 832
104 Nov-11 16175 17891 118 0.99 20545 -4370 4370 866
105 Dec-11 15315 18654 118 0.81 14522 793 793 866
106 Jan-12 17950 18295 118 0.99 18672 -722 722 864
107 Feb-12 13534 16343 118 0.89 16336 -2802 2802 882
108 Mar-12 15054 15555 118 1.00 16434 -1380 1380 887
109 Apr-12 0.99 15588
110 May-12 1.01 15888
111 Jun-12 1.18 18847
112 Jul-12 0.84 13456
113 Aug-12 0.79 12738
114 Sep-12 1.09 17668
115 Oct-12 1.48 24300
116 Nov-12 0.99 16302
117 Dec-12 0.81 13398
118 Jan-13 0.99 16644
119 Feb-13 0.89 14949
120 Mar-13 1.00 16940
MSE(t) % error MAPE(t) TS(t)
65077 5% 5% -1.00 35000

95581 8% 7% -2.00
302545 17% 10% -3.00 30000
264310 9% 10% -2.32
25000
211510 0% 8% -2.83
215714 8% 8% -1.45 20000
262286 8% 8% 0.39
360213 15% 9% 2.32 15000
350070 11% 9% 1.31
10000
332973 7% 9% 0.50
373619 14% 9% 2.10 5000
718221 23% 11% 4.85
954672 30% 12% 1.70 0
906753 8% 12% 1.03
860869 5% 11% 1.70
908028 25% 12% -0.03
855249 2% 12% 0.11 Alpha 0.66
810782 3% 11% 0.45 Beta 0.00
818277 9% 11% 1.80 Gamma 0.00
849554 14% 11% 3.37
835906 12% 11% 2.35
813001 8% 11% 1.59
793542 8% 11% 2.43
762598 3% 11% 2.82 8.00
742898 6% 10% 2.11 6.00
716323 3% 10% 2.50 4.00
692524 3% 10% 2.15
2.00
667976 1% 10% 2.11
653048 7% 9% 2.89 0.00
649609 8% 9% 1.72 -2.00 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46
659881 7% 9% 3.19 -4.00
641507 3% 9% 3.67 -6.00
629174 7% 9% 2.94
-8.00
610688 0% 9% 3.06
-10.00
593716 1% 9% 3.35
580343 4% 8% 2.83
609159 12% 9% 4.83 Alpha 0.05 0.1 0.15
612648 9% 9% 3.39 Beta 0.05 0.1 0.15
597790 1% 8% 3.75 Gamma 0.05 0.1 0.15
590200 6% 8% 4.66 MAD 1314 1108 1064
587508 9% 8% 3.51 MSE 3106702 2502909 2328058
573665 1% 8% 3.71
560324 0% 8% 3.80
550597 4% 8% 3.21
538868 2% 8% 3.52 MSE
530972 4% 8% 2.81 3500000
530847 8% 8% 1.52
578005 19% 8% -1.36 3000000
569352 4% 8% -0.70 2500000
568461 8% 8% -1.93
2000000
560234 3% 8% -1.28
549665 1% 8% -1.12 1500000
539617 2% 7% -1.37
1000000
532864 4% 7% -2.11
529084 4% 7% -3.12 500000
537942 10% 7% -1.32 0
528522 0% 7% -1.28 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.2
529340 8% 7% -2.61
525615 7% 7% -3.59
516912 1% 7% -3.75
518144 7% 7% -2.36
527041 9% 7% -0.52
533051 7% 7% 1.14
540939 11% 7% -0.62
543078 8% 7% 0.79
662140 28% 8% -3.91
662100 5% 8% -5.19
723595 28% 8% -8.40
714893 5% 8% -9.00
711921 8% 8% -7.88
702369 2% 8% -7.68
706835 10% 8% -6.04
709332 8% 8% -4.55
737288 13% 8% -1.94
863516 18% 8% 2.75
852609 2% 8% 3.05
862441 12% 8% 1.19
885749 10% 8% 3.48
1071668 22% 8% -1.97
1078487 11% 8% -3.64
1096615 14% 8% -1.51
1146582 14% 8% 1.43
1132836 1% 8% 1.35
1125641 5% 8% 0.41
1118792 5% 8% 1.37
1115448 5% 8% 2.54
1283417 26% 8% -2.45
1295947 11% 8% -0.55
1281615 1% 8% -0.38
1276569 6% 8% -1.49
1265492 2% 8% -0.86
1273214 8% 8% 0.86
1286497 10% 8% 2.77
1291231 7% 8% 4.33
1280320 3% 8% 4.96
1301932 10% 8% 2.72
1294481 4% 8% 1.81
1282732 2% 8% 1.37
1269927 1% 8% 1.53
1258492 2% 8% 1.97
1247099 2% 8% 2.38
1311690 12% 8% 5.68
1300822 1% 8% 5.17
1471973 27% 8% -0.07
1463942 5% 8% 0.84
1455054 4% 8% 0.01
1514805 21% 8% -3.17
1518414 9% 8% -4.71
MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
TS(t)
25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 10 0 1 0 3 1 0 6
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
1083 1142 1188 1217
2425108 2578481 2725799 2868880
MSE
MSE
0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

MMFD
Forecast(t0
TS(t)
03 106
Microsoft Excel 14.0 Sensitivity Report
Worksheet: [M&M_Analysis_KC.xlsx]Winters
Report Created: 9/26/2017 10:49:35 AM
Variable Cells
Final Reduced
Cell Name Value Gradient
$Q$19 Alpha 0.655499165 0
$Q$20 Beta 0 1356059.782
$Q$21 Gamma 0 770576.7008
Constraints
NONE
MAD(t) MSE(t) MAPE(t) TS(t) - Min TS(t) - Max
2a.3 month MA 2276 9565246 20% -2 19
2b.6 month MA 2101 8459256 17% 1 31
3.Simple Exponential smoothing 2535 12841284 25% -24 38
4a. Trend Adjusted (Static) 1993 7590642 18% -17 21
4b. Holts 2072 8099444 18% -21 19
5a. Trend and Season Adjusted (Static) 1295 3012302 12% -30 34
5b. Winters 1314 3106702 11% -37 25
5c. Winters Optimized 887 1518414 8% -9 6
MAD(t) MSE(t)
3000
12000000
2000
8000000
1000 4000000
0 0
TS(t) - Range
21 TS(t) - Range
30 60
40
62 20
0
39
40
64
61
15
MSE(t) MAPE(t)
30%
20%
10%
0%
)

M&M Analysis KC Shared

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

M&M Analysis KC Shared

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

M&M Analysis KC Shared

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Methods

Static Vs Adaptive (Moving Avg, Exponential)

141% -1.00 35000

0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

-255 255 255 65077 5% 5% -1 35000

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

65077 5% 5% -1.00 35000

0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

11% 10% 10% 10%

0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

11% 11% 11% 11%

65077 5% 5% -1.00 35000

0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

You might also like