B V SEM CH 4 Estimation Method

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Ch IV Estimation method of water quantity 4

hrs

Population fore casting method,


water requirement for various purpose
Water demand.,
variation on demand,
peak demand,
factors affecting on demand
socio economic factor on demand
Water supply for private and public
places
Water storage, classification,
size determination of tank/ reservoir.
Population
Why population forecasting ?
• What is PF ?
• Estimation of future population with help of previous census
data
• Water demand: means consumption of water by the
community. For design purpose first require an estimation of
total amount of water required by the community then search
source to fulfill that demand.
• For estimating the water demand for a town or city rate of
demand, design period and population is required.
• Demand depends upon the various factors
• Q=p*q*365
• Where, Q= Total quantity of water required in liters.
• P = Population
• q = Rate of water supply per capita per day in liter
Water requirements for various purposes

• various types of water Demand of City or town


community
• 1. Domestic water demand
• 2. Commercial water demand
• 3. Industrial water demand
• 4. Livestock water demand
• 5. Public uses water demand
• 6. Fire demand
• 7. Compensated losses in wastes and thefts.
Domestic demand
• 112 lpcd for fully plumed houses.
• 65 lpcd for partly plumed house.
• 45 lpcd for rural areas achieved by public tap stands.
commercial water demand

• commercial water demand in Nepal is generally taken


as
• 500-1000 liters/day for offices (depending on size)
• 500 liters/bed/day for hospitals with beds.
• 2500 liters/day for hospitals without bed and health
clinics.
• 200 liters/bed/day for hotels with bed.
• 500-1000 liters/day for hotels without bed.
• 500-1000 liters/day for restaurants and tea stalls etc.
Livestock demand:

L/animal/day
• 1. Cow & buffalo 40 to 60
• 2. Horse 40 to 50
• 3. Small animals (Goat or sheep) 5 to 10
• 4. Dog 2 to 5
• 5. small Birds 10/100 Birds
Public (civic) uses
• - water required for public purposes is known as public
demand. road washing cleaning public sewers, watering of
parks, gardens, water fountains, swimming pools, flushing
of public water closets and urinals, hospitals, schools and
colleges.
• roughly equal to about 5 % of total consumption.
1. Public gardens 1.4 L/m2/day
2. Street washing 1.0 L/m2/day
3. Sewer cleaning 4.5 L/h/d
4. Hospitals 340-450 L/bed/day
5. Hostels 135 L/h/d
6. Schools 45-135 L/h/d
Industrial demand
• no direct relation of this consumption with population.
Kiloliter/unit
• 1. Automobile Vehicle 40
• 2. Distillery kl 122-170
• 3. Fertilizer Tone 80-200
• 4. Leather ` 100 kg 4
• 5. Steel tone 200-250
• 6. Sugar tone 1-2
• 7. Textile 100 kg 8-14
• 8. Paper tonne 200-400
• 9. Petroleum refinery tonne 1.5-2.0
fire demand

• water required for firefighting is usually known as fire


demand.
• demand of water for extinguishing fire is small in a year but
the rate of fire is very high.
• water required for firefighting should be easily available
and always should store in the storage reservoirs.
• densely populated area and industrial area, fire breaks out
and may lead to serious damage hence should provide
sufficient quantity of water for extinguishing the fire.
• as a function of population and estimate of the fire fighting
demand is made by the different empirical formulas:
fire demand
• Kuichling's formula:-
• Q=3182√ p
• Where, Q =quantity of water in L/minute.
• P = Population in thousands
• Boston’s Formula: - Q = 5663 √p Where Q and p have the same
meaning.
• Freeman's formula: - Q = 1136 [p/5 +10] and X=2.8 √p
• Where, Q= water required in L/minutes
• P = population in thousands
• X = no of simultaneous fire streams.

• National board of fire underwriters formula: - Q = 4637 √p (1-0.01√p)


• Ministry of urban development manual formula:- Q =100√p
• Where Q in Kiloliter/ day, population in thousand. It can be used
when population is more than 50,000.

• These formulas were developed for specific condition and location


and cannot be directly used for Nepalese context.
Losses of water
• looses from water distribution system consists of:
1. Leakage and overflow from service reservoir.
2. Leakage from mains and service pipe
connection.
3. Leakage and looses from consumer premises
when they get unmetered household supplies.
4. Under registration of supply meter.
5. Large leakage and wastage from public taps.
Design period:
• What is ?
• Definition, selection basis, and significance of design period:
• DESIGN PERIOD: The future period or number of years for which a provision is made while
planning and designing a water supply project is known as design period.
• periods should neither be too long nor too short.
• generally expressed in years and during this period the components, structures and
equipment of the water supply projects are supposed to be adequate to serve the
requirements. In Nepal, the design period water supply is taken as 15-20 years.
• Factors affecting the design period:
1. The rate of interest of loans taken for the construction of the projects. If the rate of interest
is high, design period is low.
2. Useful life of pipes, structures & equipment used in the water works. If useful life is more,
design period is also more.
3. The anticipated rate of growth of population. If rate is more, design period is less.
4. Funds available for the completion of the projects. If more funds are available, the design
period shall be less.
5. Efficiency of the component units of projects.
Per capita consumption
• Per capita demand for various uses:
• It is the annual average amount of daily water required
by one person and includes the domestic use,
industrial and commercial use, public use, waste &
thefts etc. Mathematically, it can be expressed as,
• Per capita demand (q) in L/d/head
= Total yearly water requirement of the city in L / 365* design population
• In Nepal, for village area 45 L/h/d and for city or town
100-160 L/c/d are used in practice.
• Commonly called lpcd
Per capita demand depend
1. Climatic condition:
2. People's habits:
3. Industrial and commercial activities
4. Cost of water:
5. System of supply:
6. System of sanitation i.e. Sewerage system:
7. Metering of water supply:
8. Distribution pressure
9. Public services:.
10.Size of city:
11.Age of city
12.Availability of supplementary sources:
13.Quality of water:
14.Living standard of the people :.
Variation in demand from average
(Fluctuation in consumption of water):
• Maximum, seasonal, daily, hourly consumption
• The average daily consumption of water is equal to (lpcd)
• = Quantity required in 12 months , 365* population
• If this quantity of water is supplied at all the times it will not be sufficient
because the demand varies seasonally, monthly, daily and hourly.
• These variations are called fluctuations in demand.
• This variation is expressed as percentage of annual average daily consumption.
Some common values are:
1. Maximum seasonal consumption = 130% of annual average Daily
(AAD) rate of demand.
2. Maximum monthly consumption = 140% of AAD rate of demand.
3. Maximum daily consumption = 180% of AAD consumption
4. Maximum hourly consumption = 150% of average for the day.
Variation in demand from average
(Fluctuation in consumption of water):
• Seasonal fluctuation: The variations may be upto 150% of the average demand of the year.
• Fire accidents
• . Seasonal variations are mainly due to the presence of industries of seasonal nature and
domestic requirements.
• Daily Variation: This variation depends on the general habits of people, climatic conditions
and The maximum daily consumption is usually taken as 180% of the average Consumption.
• Hourly Variation: On Saturday and other holidays the peak hours may be about 8 A.M. due
to late awakening where as it may be 6 A.M. to 10 A.M. and 4 P.M. to 8 P.M. and minimum
flow may be between 12P.M. to 4P.M. when most of the people are sleeping. But in highly
industrial city where both day and night shifts are working, the consumption in night may
be more.
1. demand fluctuates from day to day and hour to hour depending on the activity of people.
2. People use more water during holiday other than the week. T
3. demands will also increases on festival days.
4. Demand of water during 24 hours of a day doesn't remains constant. Peak demand occurs
during morning and evening (6-10 mornings 4-8 evening).
5. adequate quantity of water must be available to meet the peak demand.
6. meet all the fluctuations, the supply pipes, service reservoirs and distributing pipes must be
properly balanced
Socio economic condition and demand

1. Public VS Private tap stand


2. Affluent VS Subsistence
3. Habits of people
4. Distance to tap stand
5. Urban VS rural
POPULATION FORECAST:

• prediction of population in future.


• design period is fixed.
• present population is obtained by the census
office.
• population increases by birth, decreases by
death, increases by annexation, increases or
decreases by migration.
• future increase in population depends on trade
expansion, developments of industries etc.
Population forecast
• Necessity
• water supply scheme isn't designed only for
the present population but for the population
expected in coming 2-3 decades.

• purposes.
Population forecast
• Necessity
• water supply scheme isn't designed only for the present
population but for the population expected in coming 2-3
decades.
• purposes.
• Used for water supply scheme
• It helps governments for the preparation of social
employment and economic programmes.
• For workout the requirements in other public utilities
(electric power, telecommunication etc)
• For workout the expected future traffic in
transportation
• Also helps for collection of much other information.
Factors affecting population growth
• In order to predict the future population, it is
necessary to know the factors affecting the
population growth. These are:
• 1. Births 2.Deaths 3. Migrations 4. Annexations
• All these factors influenced by social and
economical factors and conditions prevailing in the
various communities.
Methods of population forecast
1. Arithmetic increase method
2. Geometric increase method
3. Incremental increase method
4. Changing rate of growth/decrease rate of
increase method
5. Graphical extension method
6. Graphical comparison method
Arithmetic increase method
• Mathematically, dp/dt =constant=k
• P2-p1 = K (T2-T1), Where p1 =population of last decade
• P2 = population of first decade
• (T2-T1) =N= no of decades
• The future population Pn after n decade is given by
• Pn = Po+nI
• Where Pn= Future population at the end of n decade.
• Po = Present population
• I= Average increment for a decade.
• This method is used for forecasting population of those
large cities, which have reached their saturation
population.
Geometric increase method
(Uniform percentage growth method)
• This method is based on the assumption that the
% increase in population from decade to decade
remains constant and the increase is compounded
over the existing population every decade.
• If the present population is P and the average %
growth is Ig, the population at the end of n decades
will be
Incremental increase method
method is improvement over the above two methods. In this
method, the per decade growth rate isn't assumed to be
constant as in the previous two methods (i.e. arithmetic and
geometric) but is progressively increasing or decreasing,
depending upon whether the average of incremental increase
(increment over increase) in the past data is positive or negative.
Average increase in population /decade is calculated by
arithmetic increase method and that is added to the average of
the net incremental increase/decade once every future decade.
This method gives the value between arithmetic and geometric
progression. Thus the future population at the end of n decade is
given by,
Where,
P= present population
I = average increase per decade
r= Average incremental increase
n= No. of decade.
Sample calculation (compute 70, 80, 90
year Pop Increase % Incremental
in increase increase
populati
on
1 2 3 (i) 4 (ig) 5(r)
2020 25000
2030 28000 3000 12
2040 34000 6000 21.4 3000
2050 42000 8000 23.5 2000
2060 47000 5000 11.9 -3000
22000 68.8 2000
5500 17.2 666.6666667

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