B V SEM CH 4 Estimation Method
B V SEM CH 4 Estimation Method
B V SEM CH 4 Estimation Method
hrs
L/animal/day
• 1. Cow & buffalo 40 to 60
• 2. Horse 40 to 50
• 3. Small animals (Goat or sheep) 5 to 10
• 4. Dog 2 to 5
• 5. small Birds 10/100 Birds
Public (civic) uses
• - water required for public purposes is known as public
demand. road washing cleaning public sewers, watering of
parks, gardens, water fountains, swimming pools, flushing
of public water closets and urinals, hospitals, schools and
colleges.
• roughly equal to about 5 % of total consumption.
1. Public gardens 1.4 L/m2/day
2. Street washing 1.0 L/m2/day
3. Sewer cleaning 4.5 L/h/d
4. Hospitals 340-450 L/bed/day
5. Hostels 135 L/h/d
6. Schools 45-135 L/h/d
Industrial demand
• no direct relation of this consumption with population.
Kiloliter/unit
• 1. Automobile Vehicle 40
• 2. Distillery kl 122-170
• 3. Fertilizer Tone 80-200
• 4. Leather ` 100 kg 4
• 5. Steel tone 200-250
• 6. Sugar tone 1-2
• 7. Textile 100 kg 8-14
• 8. Paper tonne 200-400
• 9. Petroleum refinery tonne 1.5-2.0
fire demand
• purposes.
Population forecast
• Necessity
• water supply scheme isn't designed only for the present
population but for the population expected in coming 2-3
decades.
• purposes.
• Used for water supply scheme
• It helps governments for the preparation of social
employment and economic programmes.
• For workout the requirements in other public utilities
(electric power, telecommunication etc)
• For workout the expected future traffic in
transportation
• Also helps for collection of much other information.
Factors affecting population growth
• In order to predict the future population, it is
necessary to know the factors affecting the
population growth. These are:
• 1. Births 2.Deaths 3. Migrations 4. Annexations
• All these factors influenced by social and
economical factors and conditions prevailing in the
various communities.
Methods of population forecast
1. Arithmetic increase method
2. Geometric increase method
3. Incremental increase method
4. Changing rate of growth/decrease rate of
increase method
5. Graphical extension method
6. Graphical comparison method
Arithmetic increase method
• Mathematically, dp/dt =constant=k
• P2-p1 = K (T2-T1), Where p1 =population of last decade
• P2 = population of first decade
• (T2-T1) =N= no of decades
• The future population Pn after n decade is given by
• Pn = Po+nI
• Where Pn= Future population at the end of n decade.
• Po = Present population
• I= Average increment for a decade.
• This method is used for forecasting population of those
large cities, which have reached their saturation
population.
Geometric increase method
(Uniform percentage growth method)
• This method is based on the assumption that the
% increase in population from decade to decade
remains constant and the increase is compounded
over the existing population every decade.
• If the present population is P and the average %
growth is Ig, the population at the end of n decades
will be
Incremental increase method
method is improvement over the above two methods. In this
method, the per decade growth rate isn't assumed to be
constant as in the previous two methods (i.e. arithmetic and
geometric) but is progressively increasing or decreasing,
depending upon whether the average of incremental increase
(increment over increase) in the past data is positive or negative.
Average increase in population /decade is calculated by
arithmetic increase method and that is added to the average of
the net incremental increase/decade once every future decade.
This method gives the value between arithmetic and geometric
progression. Thus the future population at the end of n decade is
given by,
Where,
P= present population
I = average increase per decade
r= Average incremental increase
n= No. of decade.
Sample calculation (compute 70, 80, 90
year Pop Increase % Incremental
in increase increase
populati
on
1 2 3 (i) 4 (ig) 5(r)
2020 25000
2030 28000 3000 12
2040 34000 6000 21.4 3000
2050 42000 8000 23.5 2000
2060 47000 5000 11.9 -3000
22000 68.8 2000
5500 17.2 666.6666667