Simple Models
Simple Models
Simple Models
Clayton Mizgerd
Max Enis
Hemal Patel
Alexandra Bonat
November 2020
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Salmonella outbreak
A simple model
Compartmental Modelling
βSI
S −→ I
Observe the following
dS
= −βSI
dt
dI
= βSI
dt
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Compartmental Modelling
We no longer infect
Number of Infected Individuals
infinitely, however
all of the population
remains infected.
Thus, we can
introduce a new
compartment, R, to
indicate the recov-
t ered population.
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Refined Model
SIR Model
Number of Infected Individuals
We now have a
simple model which
only implements two
parameters β and µ.
βSI µI
S −→ I −→ R
t
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
A Basic Extension
Model Parameters
Reproductive Number
Social distancing
Reducing each person’s number of contacts
Dehning et al., July 2020
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Fatality Rate
Length of Infection
Example
Consider starting population ~v = {100, 10, 0}, and matrix
0.9 −0.1 0
A = 0.1 0.9 0 .
0 0.2 1
Issues
Remedy
Advantages:
no population can go negative
more accurate
characteristic shape
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Disadvantages:
cannot generally give closed-form expression
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Example
dS
= −βS(t)I(t)
dt
dI
= βS(t)I(t) − µI(t)
dt
dR
= µI
dt
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Advantages:
most realistic
continuous
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Disadvantages:
can be more difficult to explain & understand
cannot be explicitly solved
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Euler’s Method
t2
t1 ∆t
t
dS
S(t2 ) = S(t1 ) + ∆t (t1 ).
dt
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Runge-Kutta
Runge-Kutta
dS k1 + 2k2 + 2k3 + k4
k4 = ∆t (S(t) + k3 , I(t) + m3 ) k = S(t + ∆t) = S(t) + k
dt 6
dI m1 + 2m2 + 2m3 + m4
m4 = ∆t (S(t) + k3 , I(t) + m3 ) m= I(t + ∆t) = I(t) + m
dt 6
dR n1 + 2n2 + 2n3 + n4
n4 = ∆t (S(t) + k3 , I(t) + m3 ) n= R(t + ∆t) = R(t) + n
dt 6
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Our Approach
Two-Group Model
Iu,n Su,n ku Ie,n Su,n ke
Su,n+1
= Su,n − − − jSu,n
N N
Iu,n Se,n ku Ie,n Se,n ke
Se,n+1 = Se,n − − + jSu,n
N N
Iu,n Su,n ku Ie,n Su,n ke
Iu,n+1 = Iu,n + + − Iu,n m
N N
Iu,n Se,n ku Ie,n Se,n ke
Ie,n+1 = Ie,n + + − Ie,n m
N N
Rn+1 = Rn + Iu,n m + Ie,n m
Parameters
Excel Demonstration
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Parameters
Limitations
Assumptions
Sm,n
similarly.
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Parameters
Excel Demonstration
Building a Basic Model COVID-19 Parameters Implementations Extensions Two-Group Model General Recursive Model
Limitations
Assumptions
Thank You