Biotech Valuation Template
Biotech Valuation Template
Biotech Valuation Template
April 7, 2013
Modified with permission by D R Walwyn
VALUATION PARAMETERS Reseva (Pty) Ltd
Zidovudine TECHNOLOGY VALUATION
Draft 1.0
MARKET DATA
Number of Cases Forecast for Year 1 500,000 patients per year
Annual Population Growth 0.00%
Peak Market Penetration 100.0%
Cost per Dose 0.500 $/dose
Revenue Per Unit 182.5 $/patient
Patent Life 15 years
Patent Expiry 17 15 years post end of preclinical
Market Ramp Time to Peak Penetration (Years) 3 Ramp up and ramp down after patent expiry
COSTS
Screening and Hit Generation 300,000 Approximate Total Costs for 2 Scientists
Hit to Lead 450,000 Approximate Total Costs for 3 Scientists
Lead Optimisation 600,000 Approximate Total Costs for 4 Scientists
Annual Pre-Market Patent Fees 10,000
Annual Preclinical Costs 600,000 Approximate Total Costs for 4 Scientists
Per Patient Phase 1 24,000 Hollister-Stier
Per Patient Phase 2 24,000 Hollister-Stier
Per Patient Phase 3 15,000 Hollister-Stier
Approval Costs 1,300,000 $309,647 for PDUFA and $500,000-1,500,000+ for NDA preparation (ProPharma Partners; Covance)
Animal studies supporting Phase 1 500,000 SEC documents referencing 2001 survey
Animal studies supporting Phase 2 1,000,000 SEC documents referencing 2001 survey
Animal studies supporting Phase 3 1,500,000 SEC documents referencing 2001 survey
Manufacturing/Marketing Costs + Markup 50% Manufacturing, 25%; Marketing, 25%;(McKinsey New Venture, Moscho et al. Nature Biotech 18:719, 2000)
Exit Point for Inventors Preclinical
RATES
Royalty Rate 10.0%
Discount Rate 8%
Exit Year 2
Max Turnover 91.3 million $
Future Value Development Cost at Launch 5.1 million $
(r)NPV Licensor at Launch 52.2 million $
Licensor rNPV at License Point or 20 years 6.4 million $
Licensee rNPV at License Point or 20 years 8.8 million $
Licensor rNPV at Year One 1.6 million $
Calculated Ratio 42%
Value ($)
30,000,000 100,000,000
80,000,000
20,000,000
60,000,000
10,000,000 40,000,000
20,000,000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3
Year
Licensee NPV and rNPV
200,000,000
180,000,000
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
Value ($)
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Zidovudine
YEAR YEAR
Revenue Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
PRODUCT REVENUE
Number of Cases 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000
Market Share 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 75.0% 50.0% 25.0%
Units Sold - - - - - - - - 125,000 250,000 375,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 375,000 250,000 125,000
Product Revenue - - - - - - - - 22,812,500 45,625,000 68,437,500 91,250,000 91,250,000 91,250,000 91,250,000 91,250,000 68,437,500 45,625,000 22,812,500
Royalty Income - - - - - - - - 2,281,250 4,562,500 6,843,750 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 6,843,750 4,562,500 2,281,250
Total Revenue to Licensor - - - - - - - - 2,281,250 4,562,500 6,843,750 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 6,843,750 4,562,500 2,281,250
PV of Revenue 27,362,213 29,551,190 31,915,285 34,468,508 37,225,989 40,204,068 43,420,393 46,894,025 50,645,547 52,233,441 51,484,616 48,212,135 42,214,106 35,736,234 28,740,133 21,184,344 13,024,091 6,674,769 2,281,250
PV of Revenue 27,362,213
Discount Rate 8.0%
YEAR YEAR
Contribution Margin Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
DEVELOPMENT STAGE Preclinical Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 3 FDA Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue
Exit Flag 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
REVENUE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,281,250 4,562,500 6,843,750 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 6,843,750 4,562,500 2,281,250
Net Contribution Margin (610,000) (610,000) - - - - - - 2,281,250 4,562,500 6,843,750 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 9,125,000 6,843,750 4,562,500 2,281,250
Cumulative Net Contribution Margin (610,000) (1,220,000) (1,220,000) (1,220,000) (1,220,000) (1,220,000) (1,220,000) (1,220,000) 1,061,250 5,623,750 12,467,500 21,592,500 30,717,500 39,842,500 48,967,500 58,092,500 64,936,250 69,498,750 71,780,000
NPV Contribution Margin 26,187,398 28,941,190 31,915,285 34,468,508 37,225,989 40,204,068 43,420,393 46,894,025 50,645,547 52,233,441 51,484,616 48,212,135 42,214,106 35,736,234 28,740,133 21,184,344 13,024,091 6,674,769 2,281,250
YEAR YEAR
Value Profile - rNPV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
DEVELOPMENT STAGE Preclinical Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 3 FDA Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue
RISK MEDIATED 10% 10% 20% 30% 30% 67% 67% 81% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Exit Flag 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
rNPV
50,000,000
NPV
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
20 Year
20 Total
500,000
0.0%
- 4,000,000
- 730,000,000
-
-
-
20 Year
20 Total
Revenue
0
0 73,000,000
0 80,000
0 -
0 -
0 -
0 1,200,000
0 1,200,000
0 4,800,000
0 37,500,000
0 1,300,000
0 500,000
0 1,000,000
0 1,500,000
0 36,500,000
- 1,220,000
5,070,150
5,070,150
-
71,780,000
-
20 Year
20 Total
Revenue
100%
0
0 358,863
0 -
0 -
0 -
0 12,000,000
0 6,000,000
0 16,000,000
0 55,970,149
0 1,604,938
0 2,500,000
0 3,333,333
0 2,238,806
0 36,500,000
0 1,784,815
-
-
-
-
-
Reseva (Pty) Ltd
Zidovudine TECHNOLOGY VALUATION
REVENUE FORECAST - PV Reseva (Pty) Ltd
Draft 1.0
Annual Growth 0.00%
Peak Competitive Market Share 100.0%
Revenue Per Unit (ASP) $ 183
YEAR YEAR
Revenue Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
PRODUCT REVENUE
Number of Cases 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000
Market Share 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 75.0% 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Units Sold - - - - - - - - 125,000 250,000 375,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 375,000 250,000 125,000 - -
Product Revenue - - - - - - - - 22,812,500 45,625,000 68,437,500 91,250,000 91,250,000 91,250,000 91,250,000 68,437,500 45,625,000 22,812,500 - -
PV of Product Revenue 247,897,612 267,729,421 289,147,774 312,279,596 337,261,964 364,242,921 393,382,355 424,852,943 458,841,178 470,910,973 459,308,851 422,141,059 357,362,343 287,401,331 211,843,437 130,240,912 66,747,685 22,812,500 - -
YEAR YEAR
Contribution Margin Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
DEVELOPMENT STAGE Preclinical Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 3 FDA Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue - -
Exit Flag 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PRODUCT REVENUE - - - - - - - - 22,812,500 45,625,000 68,437,500 91,250,000 91,250,000 91,250,000 91,250,000 68,437,500 45,625,000 22,812,500 - -
Net Contribution Margin - - (1,710,000) (2,910,000) (2,910,000) (19,510,000) (19,510,000) (1,310,000) 9,125,000 18,250,000 27,375,000 36,500,000 36,500,000 36,500,000 36,500,000 27,375,000 18,250,000 9,125,000 - -
Cumulative Net Contribution Margin - - (1,710,000) (4,620,000) (7,530,000) (27,040,000) (46,550,000) (47,860,000) (38,735,000) (20,485,000) 6,890,000 43,390,000 79,890,000 116,390,000 152,890,000 180,265,000 198,515,000 207,640,000 207,640,000 207,640,000
NPV Contribution Margin 66,906,847 72,259,394 78,040,146 86,130,158 96,163,370 106,999,240 136,629,979 168,631,177 183,536,471 188,364,389 183,723,540 168,856,423 142,944,937 114,960,532 84,737,375 52,096,365 26,699,074 9,125,000 - -
YEAR YEAR
Risk-Added and Adjusted Values 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
DEVELOPMENT STAGE Preclinical Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 3 FDA Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue - -
RISK MEDIATED 10% 10% 20% 30% 30% 67% 67% 81% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Exit Flag 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PV of Risk-Added Total Costs 210,010,786 226,811,648 244,956,580 255,319,107 265,268,635 276,014,126 266,646,301 256,529,050 275,304,707 282,546,584 275,585,310 253,284,635 214,417,406 172,440,798 127,106,062 78,144,547 40,048,611 13,687,500 - -
PV of Revenue 247,897,612 267,729,421 289,147,774 312,279,596 337,261,964 364,242,921 393,382,355 424,852,943 458,841,178 470,910,973 459,308,851 422,141,059 357,362,343 287,401,331 211,843,437 130,240,912 66,747,685 22,812,500 - -
Risk Adjustment 10% 10% 20% 30% 30% 67% 67% 81% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Risk Adjusted PV of Total Costs 21,001,079 22,681,165 48,991,316 76,595,732 79,580,591 184,929,464 178,653,022 207,788,530 275,304,707 282,546,584 275,585,310 253,284,635 214,417,406 172,440,798 127,106,062 78,144,547 40,048,611 13,687,500 - -
Risk-Adjusted PV Revenue 24,789,761 26,772,942 57,829,555 93,683,879 101,178,589 244,042,757 263,566,178 344,130,884 458,841,178 470,910,973 459,308,851 422,141,059 357,362,343 287,401,331 211,843,437 130,240,912 66,747,685 22,812,500 - -
Risk-Adjusted NPV - - 8,838,239 17,088,147 21,597,999 59,113,293 84,913,156 136,342,354 183,536,471 188,364,389 183,723,540 168,856,423 142,944,937 114,960,532 84,737,375 52,096,365 26,699,074 9,125,000 - -
200,000,000
180,000,000
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
Value ($)
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Time (years)
PV of Revenue NPV of Cash Flow Risk-Adjusted NPV
$ 247,897,612 #REF! $ -
20 Year
Total
3,500,000
638,750,000
20 Year
Total
638,750,000
80,000
1,200,000
1,200,000
4,800,000
37,500,000
1,300,000
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
319,375,000
63,875,000
-
431,110,000
Draft 1.0
20 Year
Total
358,863
12,000,000
6,000,000
16,000,000
55,970,149
1,604,938
2,500,000
3,333,333
2,238,806
319,375,000
63,875,000
-
1,720,259,689