2021

CLIMATE CHANGE &

PERMAFROST
WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE FROM PERMAFROST THAT THE
EARTH’S CLIMATE HAS WARMED IN RECENT DECADES,
AND HOW WILL PERMAFROST CHANGE IN FUTURE AND
IMPACT SOCIETY?
ANA PEREIRA SÁNCHEZ
GGY3073 Climate Change Student Number: 40351016

Content

Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... 2
Evidence from permafrost that the Earth’s climate has warmed in recent decades ............... 3
Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3
Permafrost thaw evidence .................................................................................................... 3
Data collection limits and opportunities ............................................................................... 4
Example of the consequences of ice melting......................................................................... 5
How will permafrost change in future and impact society? ..................................................... 6
Methods .................................................................................................................................... 6
Results ....................................................................................................................................... 7
Minimum Temperature ......................................................................................................... 7
Frost Days .............................................................................................................................. 8
Snowfall ................................................................................................................................. 8
Discussion .................................................................................................................................. 9
Results ................................................................................................................................... 9
Implications for people: ........................................................................................................ 9
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 10
References................................................................................................................................... 11

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GGY3073 Climate Change Student Number: 40351016

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PERMAFROST

Abstract
Permafrost is the permanent frozen layer below the Earth surface which is composed by ice and
different kinds of soils. It covers around the 24% of the northern hemisphere surface due to the
climate conditions that can be found in these areas (air temperature, snow, solar radiation…).
The permafrost is composed by two layers, the active one, which thickness is the maximum
surface thaw depth in summer (UNEP, 2012), and the inactive one. The study of the behaviour
of these two layers, becomes crucial when it comes to developing climate models. This is the
reason why some networks are constantly monitoring the permafrost status, some of these are,
the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) or the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM). Both
of them have collected data which indicates that the permafrost layer has increased its
temperature in the past decades, ant that the active layer is becoming thicker. This fact is directly
connected with the global warming. The organic matter that´s now frozen in the permafrost,
will thaw and decay, rising the CO2 emissions which are then delivered to the atmosphere,
increasing the greenhouse effect. It is expected that by the year 2100, the permafrost layers will
have experimented a huge degradation (UNEP, 2012). This means those societies living near to
the Artic will have to develop adaptation strategies, and the whole word should become more
aware of this issue in order to mitigate the impacts.

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GGY3073 Climate Change Student Number: 40351016

Evidence from permafrost that the Earth’s climate has warmed in recent decades

Introduction

Permafrost thaw evidence

It is known that global surface temperature has
increased in the last two decades around 0.84-1.10 ºC
compared with 1850-1900 (IPCC, 2021). This also
implies a rise of the number of days with abnormal
temperatures, which affects specially to the artic,
where the temperature is increasing twice as much as
the rest of the Earth (Muster et al., 2015). The fact
that the surface covered by permafrost is located
mostly in these northern areas becomes crucial to
understanding the magnitude of the problem.

To proof that the permafrost is melting due to climate

change, there are some evidences that should be
considered. One of them is the phenomenon known
as Termokarst which is a direct consequence of the
defrosting of these surfaces. This event has the
capacity to change the landscape as it can be
appreciated in the Batagaika crater, which is the
biggest permafrost crater in the world. It was formed Fig.1 Source: UNEP report “Policy
after the surrounded forest was cleared in the 1960s Implications of Warming Permafrost”
which consequence was the shadow absence. This increased the permafrost thaw and the
sinking of the crater. Now a days it continues growing up to 16 meters per year (R. Shaurquillo,
2021). This is a clear evidence that changing the environmental conditions of these zones have
a direct effect on the permafrost. Changes in landscape morphology due to the thaw are
manifested in different ways and are now visible to the human eye. It is also common the bulging
of some parts of the ground when the ice starts melting (Fig2).

Fig 2. Churapcha, Sakha-Yakutia, Siberia, Russia, the ground has changed its morphology developing these mounds
as a result of the permafrost thawing. N. BASHARIN - Melnikov Permafrost Institute. Source: El País, 2021

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Apart from the visible evidence, there al also some scientific researches which confirm the
permafrost thaw. This is the case of the data collection made by networks such as the TSP or the
CALM which came into the conclusion that there´s being a reduction of the active layer. Another
non-visible evidence is the increase of CO2 emissions which have been detected recently in
regions such as Siberia (K. Schuster, 2020). Nevertheless, it must be considered that this result
is a combination of different evets such as forest fires or peat fires, together with the permafrost
thaw. However, this effect specially worries the scientific community, because of the increase
of the greenhouse gases. When the ice melts, the organic materials start their decomposition
releasing these gases (such as carbon dioxygen) to the atmosphere. This concerns to the Paris
Agreement of 2016, which doesn´t take this into account, and would imply a greater reduction
of human emissions (H. Rodriguez, 2021). The fact that the Paris Agreement doesn´t consider
this issue is due to the lack of information that there´s still being about how might the melting
of the permafrost develop.

Contradictory evidence
It may seem that the extreme weather conditions that have taken place in Europe in the last few
years, such as cold waves or intense snowfall, could imply an improvement for the permafrost
conditions. It is true (as it will be exposed later) that the number of extreme snowfall events in
northern Europe are meant to be increasingly common (even if the yearly average declines), but
this doesn´t mean that the Artic is getting colder (M. Stone, 2021). In fact, the rise of snowfall
intensity is due to the evaporation of the water, which was frozen in the Artic zones, which is
now melting and starting the water cycle.

Data collection limits and opportunities

Despite the scientific advances, there are some limitations that compromise the research on this
matter. The first problem for scientist is the lack of available data related to the permafrost (S.
Gruber, 2012). The weather and the environmental conditions in those areas complicate the
data collection. These adverse conditions suppose an obstacle for the transport of materials and
study tools, making it hard for modelling large areas of land covered by permafrost. It should be
also considered that the area covered by this phenomenon is huge, so those investigations
taking place in one specific zone might not be valid for the rest of the area. There is also a lack
of historical data to compare with in order to estimate till what point it is a consequence of
human intervention or if the levels of methane and carbon dioxygen emission have been there
since the last deglaciation.

Nevertheless, new geophysics techniques are each day more common, and permafrost
researches are now based in ground-penetrating radar technologies, 2D resistivity (L. Schrott &
O. Sass, 2007) and high-tech thermometers, which allows the developement of more accurate
cartography. The data collected from these methods, is then related with other variables such
as altitude, air temperature or solar radiation in order to establish the linear correlation and
multiple regression between each variable and ground temperature (K. Isaksen et al., 2007). The
results of multiple studies using a mix of these techniques confirm the permafrost degradation
due to climate change, but there is no certainty of how it is going to develop in the future and
how intense it would be.

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GGY3073 Climate Change Student Number: 40351016

Consequences of ice melting

The first one is the increase of forest fires in areas such as Alaska, Canada or Russia (Alexander
V Kirdyanov et al., 2020) which affects directly to the upper soil layer. The combination between
the high temperatures that these regions are experimenting (up to 38 degrees in summer 2021)
and the droughts that are becoming more and more frequent, make these wildfires increase
their frequency and intensity. This has been confirmed by the Russian Forest Agency which
published that up to 11.5 million of hectares have been burned this year, in comparison with the
annual average of 8.9 million of hectares that are burned every year since 2000 (ABC Color,
2021).

A fact that just ratify the evidence of the permafrost thaw is the appearance of prehistoric items
which where frost and now, with the ice melting have shown up. This has come to the point that
there are mammoth tusk hunters who commercialize with them in the Chinese market, where
a single tusk can be sell for tens of thousands of pounds (S. Weiss, 2019). There have been also
appearances of mammoths preserved in perfect conditions (e.g, Esparta, a cave lion cub from
28,000 years ago) which allows scientist making DNA studies and blood and marrow analysis,
enabling new scientific advances (BBC, 2021). This is just a reflection of the magnitude of the
permafrost thaw issue, whose effects are already evident.

Of course, it shouldn´t be forgotten the social impacts that this phenomenon implies, such as
the infrastructure degradation due to the instability of the permafrost soil, the economic cost,
and the consequence on everyday life of people living in these northern areas and their cultures
(all this is developed later on).

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GGY3073 Climate Change Student Number: 40351016

How will permafrost change in future and impact society?

Methods

To investigate the future development of the permafrost it has been chosen the IPCC AR6 WG1
Interactive Atlas which offers a cartography about different climate scenarios based on the
chosen variables.

The Atlas is accessible to everyone, and it counts with a huge data base which allows the
program to make all the predictions. Nevertheless, some knowledge is needed in order to
interpretate the resulting cartography, such as the differences between scenarios or SSP (Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways).

In this case, considering that the matter of study is the permafrost, the three selected variables
were the minimum temperatures, the frost days, and the snowfall. These elements are specially
related to the conservation of the permafrost. In this atlas it can be also set up the kind of
projection. In these cases, for the temperature, it has been chosen the Robinson one, while for
the other two variables, it has been selected the Stereographic (North) one. This is due to the
distribution of the permafrost cover, which take place in the high latitudes of the northern
hemisphere, so the cartography related to this kind of research should be focus in these areas.
For the minimum temperature, it has been used a projection where all the Earth surface is
represented in other to demonstrate that the increase of this variable is especially remarkable
in the Artic.

To evidence the differences between periods of time and scenarios, it has been chosen the most
contrasting ones, comparing the most positive future prediction (SSP1-2.6) with the worst one
(SSP3-7.0). The fact that there exists a huge variance between both of them, implies that it
depends on human reaction to climate change, the magnitude of its effects.

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 GGY3073 Climate Change Student Number: 40351016

Results
Minimum Temperature

Fig 3. Minimun temperature expected in a midium term (2041-2061), in the SSP1-2.6 Fig 4. Minimun temperature expected in a midium term (2041-2061), SSP1-2.6
scenario and considering an annual period of time. Source: IPPC ATLAS, 2021 scenario, considering the season December-February. Source: IPPC ATLAS, 2021

Fig 5. Minimun temperature, in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, considering the annual period (January-December) in the region of East Siberia. Source: IPPC ATLAS, 2021

The purpose of this figures is to illustrate how even though the selected scenario is the most
positive one (SSP1-2.6), the increase of minimum temperatures is unavoidable, which means
humans will have to adapt to these changes. It must be also highlighted that the temperature
rise can be specially appreciated during winter season, when the red colours intensify, and it
affects more to the Artic than to the Antarctic, (this is called polar amplification). The
explanation for this has been traditionally associated to the ice melting which implies a decrease
of the albedo. But recent studies have jump to the conclusion, that the albedo is not the only
reason why this is happening, atmospheric feedback and changes in heat transport from lower
latitudes to the Arctic are also important contributors to polar amplification (M. Salzmann,
2017). When it comes to the studies of permafrost, considering this is crucial, taking into account
that the majority of this phenomenon is located in the Artic area.

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GGY3073 Climate Change Student Number: 40351016

Frost Days

Fig 7. Frost Days, prediction to long term (2081-2100), in

Fig 6. Frost Days, prediction to near term (2021-2040), in an SSP1-
an SSP1-2.6 scenario, for annual period. Source: IPPC
2.6 scenario, for annual period. Source: IPPC ATLAS, 2021
ATLAS, 2021

In this image it can be seen how even with the same scenario, as time passes, the situation gets
worst. In the long-term period (2018-2100) the number of frost days will have decreased up to
-40. This is an essential fact for the permafrost studies, even the highest difference is
appreciated in the oceans, the continents where this phenomenon takes place, will also
experiment a drop of this variant.

Snowfall

Fig 7. Snowfall, prediction to medium term (2041-2060), Fig 8. Snowfall, prediction to medium term (2041-2060), in
in an SSP1-2.6 scenario, for annual period. Source: IPPC an SSP3-7.0 scenario, for annual period. Source: IPPC
ATLAS, 2021 ATLAS, 2021

Finally, the amount of snowfall does not experience such a big difference between scenario
SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, this could be a consequence of the atmosphere warming which increases
the air humidity in polar regions (IPPC FAQ, 2021), in the second scenario, the temperatures are
higher, so this air humidity would contribute to minimise the drop of snowfall days.
Nevertheless, the loss of snow masses due to the increase of superficial ablation overcomes the
rise of precipitation in snow form, that´s why the map reflects a little drop of this variant

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Discussion
Results
The resulting cartography concludes that the increase of temperatures in the artic region will
have a direct effect on the permafrost through the decrease of frosting days and the descent of
the amount of snowfall. This means that the surface covered by the permafrost will be definitely
reduced.

The climate change scenarios used for these projections, are the Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSP) which incorporate some expectations of social changes which might affect to
the climate adaptation. This perspective is more accurate than those previous one which only
considered the natural challenges of the climate change and excluded the social part. These SSP
take into account aspects such as the development of each region’s economy or demographic
changes which may affect to the climate change (E. Castillo, 2017). The SSP scenarios used for
this study are:

- SSP1: “Sustainability”, which assumes a low population grow, a great economic

development, an increase of the educational level, international cooperation,
technological advances, and environmental awareness. This is the most optimistic
scenario, where every variant shows a positive future development. It has been used
this projection for almost every map, to show up how even when applying the most
optimistic scenario, the different variants experiment changes due to climate change.
- SSP3: “Fragmentation”, This scenario shows a high contrast with the one previously
described. It is assumed a high-rise of the population, a low economic and educational
development, a very little cooperation between countries and a short environmental
awareness. This supposes a worst response to the climate change effects, a poor
adaptation and mitigation strategies and a higher contribution to global pollution.

The consequences of applying one or another SSP scenario are reflected in figures 7 & 8, where
it can be appreciated a slight change, at it was explained before.

Implications for people:

The permafrost thawing will have a huge impact not only in those societies living in the Artic,
but for the whole planet. There have been already some damages in infrastructures as a result
of the permafrost thaw. This is the case of the collapse of a fuel tank in Norlisk, which spill all its
content in an environmentally protected area in the Artic (20.000 tons of diesel) (H.Glanville et
al., 2020). This is only an example of the impacts that the degradation of the permafrost could
carry. The land instability and the increase of temperature contrast makes the facades, roads,
and pavements crack. Another effect of the thaw is disappearance of the ice and snow which
carries a minor thermic isolation for some species, a reduction of the camouflage effectiveness
of animals as the artic fox, and the apparition of physical barriers such as water masses that
hinder the movements in the space (F. Chavero, 2020). The effects on the fauna have also
consequences on the societies who live from the haunting of these animals.

Considering that the ecosystems in these areas are mostly composed by lichens, mosses and
shrubberies, the melt of the ice is specially worrying. The increase of the amount of available
water could replace this communities by arboreal ones. If this happens, trees have the capacity
to hold back the snow avoiding that it falls to the ground in its solid state, so the temperature of
this ground would increase even more, contributing to the defrosting.

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It is estimated that by the tear 2050, around 3.6 million of people could be affected by damages
to the infrastructures due to permafrost thaw (J. Hjort et al., 2018) and the Russian economy
would also be affected since 2/3 of its surface is located in areas covered by permafrost.

Considering these facts and taking into account that even under the most optimistic scenario,
damages to the permafrost cover are going to be increased in the next few years, the best option
is to start projects of adaptation to the situation. Some of these proposals imply building
infrastructures with deeper foundations or removing the vegetation in other to speed up the
thaw under those new built infrastructures which collapse could suppose a risk for the society.
An innovating project developed by Sergéi Zimon and his son Nikita has proposed as a way of
mitigating the development of the permafrost thaw, to bring back to these zones, big herbivores,
in order to proof that these animals (horses, reindeers, oxen or yacks) have the potential to
compact the ground and keep it frozen due to their heavy weight. Indeed, this adaptation and
mitigation programs need to be approved by the local administration and have not been
implemented yet. It would be also a great idea that those countries with part of their surface
covered by permafrost, develop their own networks to monitrice its progress, as well as creating
national plans of adaptation and mitigation in order to be prepared for future inconvenience.

Nevertheless, there are also some positive implications from the permafrost thaw such as new
economic opportunities sustained in the hydroelectric energy or what´s more, an improve of the
communications through navigation routes, which could bring better access to isolated villages
(helping to their development) and to gas and petrol reserves. But it can´t be forgotten that
these new opportunities should never be enough to justify the lack of intervention to stop the
permafrost thaw, taking into account that this supposes a high risk for the population
(endangering the basic services such as the access to food or drinkable water) and alter the hole
ecosystem of these areas. It is also a threat to the cultural identity of the communities from
these areas who have been always united to the extreme weather conditions.

Conclusions
The ground is the support for every ecosystem, and it is a no-renewable resource (S.J Parikh &
B.R, James, 2012) so is crucial to conservate it and try to keep those conditions which maintain
the ecosystem regulated. An alteration of any of its elements could end up in a destruction of
the whole ecosystem, in which humans are part of. The increment of CO2 and CH4 emissions
will have an impact all around the globe, so the thaw should be a matter of concern to all the
society, pushing governments to invest more money in scientific researches and mitigation
projects.

Word count: 2.728, excluding abstract, references and headlines

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