DTM SUDAN

RETURN INDEX
BETA

September 2022
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 3

IDENTIFYING AREAS OF RETURN 3

INDICATOR FRAMEWORK APPLIED IN THE RETURN INDEX BETA 4

CALCULATING A SCORING INDEX 5

INDEX FINDINGS AND FUNCTIONALITY 5

Key topline findings 5
Index breakdown per state 5
Geographical clustering 6

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 7

ANNEX 1: DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF INDICATORS 8

ANNEX 2: HOTSPOTS FACTSHEETS 12

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 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

INTRODUCTION
While the humanitarian community estimates that over one million from this data the Index evaluates how the differences in physical
internally displaced persons (IDPs) have permanently returned to their and social conditions between locations correlates with return
places of origin in Sudan since 2003, little is known about the conditions rates. It can be used to infer what conditions are most critical for
in which these returnees are living. This makes it difficult to understand facilitating returns, how to address obstacles, where to geographically
why IDPs return to some areas and not others or, put another way, target interventions and advocacy, how to strategize for resources
what makes some locations more conducive to voluntary return than and operations, and to explore changes in conditions over time.
others. Such information is critical to helping support the prospects
for durable solutions among the estimated 3.7 million remaining The applicability of the Index rests in its capacity to combine data on
IDPs in the country, to say nothing of ensuring the sustainability of these indicators for single locations into a common numerical score
return and reintegration of those who have already gone back to their that can be used to identify those locations or geographical clusters
places of origin. This is particularly important now given the most that concentrate higher instability that either hinders returns or
recent upheavals displaced and returning communities are facing. subjects people to protracted poor conditions on return. This current
iteration of the Sudan Return Index is a beta version. It is the first
To address this gap, IOM DTM and Social Inquiry sought to design the attempt to design and implement it in-country and test its applicability
first ever (beta version) Return Index for Sudan. This methodology to the Sudanese context, utilizing data from 1,001 locations across 11
was developed initially for the post-conflict Iraq context, and has states. From the initial analysis conducted, eight hotspots of instability
expanded to the Lake Chad Basin, Somalia, South Sudan, and Syria, are identified, mostly clustered in Darfur and Kordofan areas.
among others. For background, the Return Index is a tool that
provides a means of measuring the severity of living conditions in The following sections of this report present how this beta index
locations of returns. It combines first, a collection of context- was constructed, preliminary findings and index functionality, and
informed minimum or critical living conditions that are necessary to next steps for improving the tool to a final version for application
make a location adequate enough to sustain returning populations; and use by international, national, and local stakeholders in addressing
and second, quantitative analysis to generate and apply an index score humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding needs that crosscut
to each location based on the state of these indicators. Importantly, supporting communities as they seek to resolve displacement.

IDENTIFYING AREAS OF RETURN Table 1. Reported rates of return in the locations assessed
How many people who were displaced
Sudan’s Return Index Beta is constructed with the location-level data since 2003 have return to this location? #of locations Percentage
generated in IOM DTM’s Integrated Locations Assessment (ILA), All have returned 68 7%
conducted in January 2022. The ILA consists of a profiling of locations
Most have returned 461 46%
that host IDPs and/or returnees, with information collected through
key informants in each location. From the ~1,700 locations included Around half have returned 128 13%

in the ILA, the Index only uses data from locations from which families Less than half have returned 161 16%
were displaced by conflict at some point since 2003; it thus excludes Nobody has returned yet 183 18%
locations with only hosting IDPs or where no original population was
Total 1,001 100%
displaced due to conflict. This includes 1,001 locations of return. In
addition to estimating the current number of permanent returnee Table 2 Disaggregation of locations of return covered in each state
families for each location, the assessment included a specific indicator Number of Returnee Estimated
STATE locations of individuals IDP from
aimed at identifying the proportion of displaced families that have return palces of origin
already returned and the proportion of those still pending to return. North Darfur 435 288,383 706,123

South Kordofan 159 129,960 284,208

Results for this indicator are shown in Table 1. One key aspect to
highlight from these results is that there are different degrees of return. West Kordofan 88 21,263 124,452

In approximately half of the locations, most or all of the previously South Darfur 78 217,608 997,278
displaced families have already returned. The other half reported very West Darfur 72 60,823 442,207
low rate of returns, if any have occurred at all, with most families Blue Nile 54 79,560 151,156
originally from there still displaced elsewhere. To note, 18% of the
Central Darfur 51 200,988 772,278
locations feature no return at all of the original displaced population.
East Darfur 26 172,352 306,373
These locations of return are spread across 11 states in Sudan, North Kordofan 22 - 9,321
with North Darfur accumulating the largest proportion of locations Gedaref 9 300 5,685
(43% of total locations). Table 2 shows this disaggregation by state,
Kassala 7 1,330 1,800
including the number of locations assessed in each, the number of
Red Sea - - 20,040
displaced families returned to their places of origin, and the estimated
number of families originally from the state that are still displaced. Total 1,001 1,287,112 3,820,921

1
IOM DTM, Sudan Mobility Tracking Round 4.
2
The ILA methodology collects information on locations from key informants––often in the form of focus group discussions. Key informants consist of representatives from the Humanitarian Aid Commission
(HAC), humanitarian aid workers, as well as religious and other prominent community leaders. Data collection location-level indicators through key informants has the advantage of allowing coverage of a large
number of locations in a short duration of time, but its main limitation is relying on one representative transmitting the views of a potentially large and diverse population.

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International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
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 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

INDICATOR FRAMEWORK APPLIED IN THE RETURN INDEX BETA

As noted above, some locations have more returns than others, contexts of similarly protracted displacement and conflict.⁴ The
and many locations here that do report returns still have a aim in this is to determine what exists already for Sudan and what
considerable number of families displaced from them. The Return is missing in relation to the HDPN that should be adapted or
Index Beta aims to explain why some areas seem more conducive created for this specific context. All selected indicators are then
to returns than others and to identify the material and social adjusted for use at the location-level for key informant responses.
conditions that contribute to this. To do that, ten key indicators
are selected from the ILA indicator framework, which is itself a The subgroup of indicators selected for the Return Index Beta
tool adapted for Sudan that spans the Humanitarian-Development- cover and evaluate the basic material and social living conditions
Peace Nexus (HDPN). This is in recognition of the fact that the in the locations assessed that are likely to affect the long-term,
Sudan context requires an integrated response across these sustainable reintegration of IDPs back into their areas of origin.
sectors to not only meet immediate- and longer-term needs but These cover housing infrastructure (one indicator), basic services
anticipate future risks and vulnerabilities to help prevent them. (three), food security (one), safety and security (two), and social
cohesion / conflict-resolution (three), respectively (Figure1). A
The Sudan-specific HDPN indicators are formulated from a more detailed description of their formulation, prevalence, and
triangulation of sources including recent comprehensive assessments application in the Return Index Beta is provided in Annex 1.
of the country³ and other ILA or Return Index frameworks from
Figure1. Summary of tested indicators

Social cohesion and

Food insecurity Housing Safety and Basic services conflict resolution
security

Food availability Conflict-related Safety concerns Water proximity Informal dispute

Compares locations with house destruction Compares locations with no Compares locations with resolution mechanisms
good food availability to safety concerns to locations direct water sources for Compares locations with access
Compares locations with no domestic use to locations
locations with limited to with different levels of safety to informal dispute resolution
house destruction to with no water sources nearby.
no food availability. concerns. mechanisms to locations with no
locations with any level of
access to such mechanisms.
house destruction due to
Security actors Health facilities
conflict. Compares locations with any Illegal land occupation
Compares locations with no
type of health facility in them Compares locations with no
security actors nearby to
to locations with no health illegal land occupation to
locations with the presence
facilities in them. locations with instances of
of security actors nearby.
illegal land occupation.
Primary education
Compares locations with Tribal reconciliation
operative schools nearby to Compares locations that do
locations with no schools or not need tribal reconciliation
no operative schools nearby. to locations that do.

Following the indicators selection, a multivariate regression analysis Figure 2. Results of modelling the impact of living conditions on
is run to determine how strongly correlated these indicators are the location’s rate of return
with the presence of returnees. The model used in this analysis Not significant Low effect Medium effect High effect
is grounded in the assumption that locations with better living
conditions as represented by these ten indicators have a higher Increase in likelihood of returns
rate of returns than those that do not. In other words, IDPs are No conflict house destruction
more likely to return to locations that offer better possibilities Direct water proximity
to sustainably reintegrate than to those with poorer conditions. Access to health facilities
Access to school
Results for this model are described in Figure 2. They confirm that
most of the indicators tested have indeed a positive effect on the Food availability
location in contributing to a higher rate of returns and that some Safety concerns (none vs severe)
indicators have a stronger effect than others on returns and, as such, No presence of security actors
they can be classified in three tiers based on the size of this effect.
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Access to informal dispute resolution
No need for tribal reconciliation
The exception to this come from two peacebuilding-related indicators
on illegal land occupation and tribal reconciliation that seem to have no No land occupation
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
correlation one way or another with the likelihood of returns (colored in
grey). This is especially unexpected in relation to illegal land occupation
The statistical model uses a linear probability model to estimate the correlation between full returns
given that it is a priority concern and source of tension and violence in a location (dependant variable) and its living conditions measured in ten different indicators
across Sudan. This non-effect is likely attributable to the sensitivity of (explanatory variables). The model also included a control variable for location type (urban/rural).
Coefficient value indicates the added probability that a location with that condition has full returns
the topic when responding to it and highlights the need for a better compared to a location without that condition (e.g. access to school compared to no access to
school). Line represents 90% confidence interval for the coefficient.
constructed and more context-sensitive proxy indicator in this regard.
3
IOM, Sudan Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment (2021); WFP, Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment (2021); and PBF, DSWG, UNHCR, JIPS, Durable Solutions and Baseline Analysis (2020).
4
See, for example, IOM ILA or Return Index frameworks for Iraq, Somalia, Lake Chad Basin, and South Sudan.

4 | International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan

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 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

CALCULATING A SCORING INDEX

Each indicator receives a score depending on its tier, so that they reported for each indicator. Scores per indicator tier are
the indicators more strongly correlated with population returns structured categorised so that the total score a location could
contribute more to the index than those with less correlation. receive ranges from 100 (where all the basic living conditions assessed
These individual indicator scores are listed in Figure 3. To exist) to 0 (where none of these conditions exist). This enables the
note, only the indicators that were found to have a statistically Return Index Beta to rank locations in terms of living conditions,
significant correlation with rate of returns are included. from the most stable, where full returns are highly likely, to the most
unstable and severe, where returns are very unlikely to take place.
Individual locations thus receive a total score based on the conditions

Figure 3. Final indicator framework with associated scores for each indicator (total = 100)

Indicators with
Indicators with LOW effect
Indicators with MEDIUM effect (Score of 8)
HIGH effect (Score of 15)
Access to health facilities
(Score of 23)
Access to informal mechanisms
Access to schools
No safety concerns Good food availability
Direct water proximity
No conflict house destruction
No presence of security actors

INDEX FINDINGS AND FUNCTIONALITY

KEY TOPLINE FINDINGS
The average score for the 1,001 locations assessed is 58/100. Table 3. Average index score for each state
This value is largely uninterpretable beyond indicating that living
conditions in return areas are far from ideal in general. However, State #of locations Average state score (over 100)

it can be used as a cut-off point to evaluate which areas fall below North Darfur 435 64

the average and thus are less conducive for returns, and on the East Darfur 26 62
North Kordofan 22 59
contrary, which ones are above the average and feature better living
Kassala 7 57
conditions. This average value differs by state as shown in Table 3. Gedaref 9 56
South Darfur 78 56
West and Central Darfur report the most severe living conditions in Blue Nile 54 55
areas of return, while North and East Darfur as a whole feature the South Kordofan 159 55

highest and thus have more positive average scores. For the other West Kordofan 88 55
Central Darfur 51 47
seven states, they all cluster close to each other in terms of score,
West Darfur 72 41
with little variation among them, indicating similar living conditions
on average.

INDEX BREAKDOWN PER STATE

While the Return Index Beta integrates multiple indicators into concerns, food availability, water availability, security actors, and lower
one numerical index to make it easier to interpret, rank, and availability of informal remedies –– at least more intensely than the rest
prioritize geographical areas, it is still necessary to understand of the states. These are the priority issues that, if acted upon, would
what is behind the score to properly tailor interventions and increase West Darfur’s score over time and make it more conducive
advocacy to the actual issues present on the ground. As such, and sustainable for returns. Safety concerns followed by food security
breaking down the index per state into sub-topics makes it and informal remedies are particularly pressing factors given that the
possible identify the most important deficiencies in each state Return Index Beta model show that they have a higher impact on the
that, based on the framework developed here, hinder returns. locations’ rate of returns. Similar trends apply for the rest of the states.

This breakdown is shown below in Table 4 for each state. It classifies In addition, the table shows those issues that are widespread
the indicators into either an adequate situation (the condition across the majority of states. Good availability of food is absent
measured is present in a majority of locations), an average situation, for the vast majority of locations and only North Darfur ranks as
or a poor situation (condition present in only a minority of locations) average in this category. Similarly for water availability, residents
with indicators organized in descending order of impact on returns. in most locations assessed across Sudan can only access water
sources that are far away from their dwellings. Beyond these
This table gives an overview of why states like West Darfur, for two, other indicators feature relatively poorly, including safety
example, feature at the bottom of the average state index. A majority concerns, presence of security actors, and access to healthcare.
of the return locations in this state experience severe issues with safety

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 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Table 4. Breakdown of each index indicator based on prevalence across locations

HIGH EFFECT INDICATOR MEDIUM EFFECT INDICATOR LOW EFFECT INDICATOR

STATE
No safety Informal dispute Good food No house Access to Access to Direct water No presence of
concerns resolution availability destruction health facilities school proximity security actors

North Darfur Adequate Adequate Average Adequate Average Adequate Poor Average

East Darfur Adequate Adequate Poor Adequate Average Average Poor Average

North Kordofan Average Adequate Poor Adequate Poor Adequate Poor Average

Kassala Average Average Poor Adequate Adequate Adequate Poor Average

Gedaref Average Adequate Poor Adequate Average Average Poor Poor

South Darfur Average Adequate Poor Adequate Average Average Poor Poor

Blue Nile Average Adequate Poor Average Adequate Adequate Poor Poor

South Kordofan Average Adequate Poor Adequate Average Adequate Average Poor

West Kordofan Average Average Poor Adequate Average Average Poor Average

Central Darfur Average Adequate Poor Average Average Average Poor Adequate

West Darfur Poor Average Poor Adequate Average Average Poor Poor

GEOGRAPHICAL CLUSTERING
State-level averages however are indicative at best and may not hotspots of instability. Most of West Darfur shows relatively unstable
provide enough information to reach a full conclusion on priority living conditions, with few exceptions. Similarly, the point where the
areas as they can hide clusters of severity and instability, especially borders of North, Central, and South Darfur intersect also contain
in states with a large number of locations. This is seen in the case of groups of locations with very high severity (El Fasher, Kebkabiya, Jabal
North Darfur in Figure 4. The majority of locations in the state seem Marrah, etc.). South Kordofan shows clusters of instability around key
to feature a relatively positive score, but North Darfur also includes urban centers such as Dilling and Kadugli as well. As such, based on
a sizable number of the locations with the worst scores in the index these findings, the list of the top hotspots of instability in areas of return
overall. Similarly, there are pockets of stability among generalized poor for Sudan includes the following localities, ranked in descending order:
living conditions in areas of return in Central and West Darfur as well. • Kebkabiya (North Darfur)
This granular data is best utilized and contextualized when • Jebel Moon (West Darfur)
geographically mapped to its lowest level - which is by location. A
color gradient is used to represent each location’s score. Figure 5 • Habila (West Darfur)
thus maps the 1,001 locations assessed in the Return Index Beta, with • Central & North Jabal Marrah (South Darfur)
the larger red dots indicating locations with severe and unstable living
• Geneina (West Darfur)
conditions. This helps to give a sense of how widespread or contained
these severe locations are. This is important because while one • Kadugli (South Kordofan)
isolated location with a low score may not necessarily raise concern, • Dilling (South Kordofan)
a group of neighboring locations with low scores can represent a
geographical hotspot or cluster of instability affecting a larger • El Fasher (North Darfur)
population. These clusters are worth monitoring with respect to how More detail on the hotspots identified in the analysis using Return
they evolve over time, what specific dynamics drive their severity, and Index Beta is found in Annex 2, describing particular geographical
whether these issues are being addressed by relevant stakeholders. zones and their priority drivers of instability and severity.
Based on the map, it is possible to start identifying preliminary
Figure 4. Ranking of return locations per state based on index score
State Name

North Darfur
East Darfur
North Kordofan
Individual location
Kassala
Gedaref Lorem ipsum
South Darfur
Blue Nile
WestKordofan
South Kordofan
Central Darfur
West Darfur
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Low s ta bility Loca tion s core Hig h s ta bility

6 | International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan

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 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Figure 5. Map of all locations assessed ranked by index score

EGYPT

LIBYA
K.S.A.

Red Sea
Northern

River Nile

North Darfur
Khartoum Kassala
CHAD
ERITREA

North Kordofan
Aj Jazirah

Gedaref

West Darfur
LEGEND
White Nile Sennar Score Total
Central Darfur 0 - 25
26 - 50
West Kordofan
51 - 75

South Kordofan Blue Nile ETHIOPIA 76 - 100

South Darfur East Darfur International
State
Locality
Undetermined Boundaries
Abyei PCA Area
Abyei PCA
. 100 Kilometer

This map is for illustration purposes

only. Names and boundaries on this
C.A.R. SOUTH SUDAN map do not imply official endorsement
or acceptance by IOM.

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
The methods, findings, and functionality presented here provide a proof of concept for the Return Index Beta framework for Sudan. By and
large, indicators related to humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding needs are shown to play a critical role in returns, with safety concerns
and access to informal dispute resolution featuring relatively prominently in whether a location is conducive for return or not. These findings
are reflective of drivers of conflict, violence, and forced movement in the country.

Furthermore, the ability to understand state-level trends and disaggregate findings to the location-level as well as in identifying geographical
clusters of instability and the specific drivers of this instability in each location are particularly useful in prioritizing more tailored and impactful
interventions and advocacy. This also lays the basis for being able to monitor changes over time, as conditions shift and populations potentially
return or are forced to displace again.

At the same time, there is critical room for further development and refinement to finalize Return Index methodology for future iterations and
to enable it to be used more widely among stakeholders in Sudan. This includes the following:

UNDERSTANDING THE CONTEXT

Refining the indicators framework in collaboration with field teams and subject matter experts to ensure analytical relevance.
While the indicators currently in use are contextually appropriate and functional, there needs to be better incorporation of
improved indicators on land disputes and occupation, security configuration, and livelihoods, particularly.
EXPANDING COVERAGE
Expanding the coverage of locations for data collection to allow for better disaggregation and deeper analysis at different
geographical levels, which will allow for deeper thematic and topical engagement.

ENHANCING ANALYSIS
Designing a more sophisticated mapping of hotspots of instability that extends beyond the locality clusters presented here into
more context-informed clustering of severe locations based on shared indicator dynamics and geographical density rather than
locality borders alone.
SYSTEMATIZING DATA COLLECTION
Developing a systematic and periodic process for regularly collecting and analyzing this data, after refining indicators and
improving sampling, to keep findings up-to-date and track changes in conditions (and related population movements) as the
context and stages of conflict transform.
GREATER DISSEMINATION
Further disseminating the Return Index, especially to high-level stakeholders and authorities (where appropriate), in an
easy-to-use manner to assist in their prioritization of HDPN efforts. The tool may also be of use in further refining a durable
solutions strategy, particularly with regard to a better understanding of conditions in places of origin and the challenges for
remaining displaced families.

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ANNEX 1: DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF INDICATORS

This annex contains detailed descriptions of the indicators used in the Return Index Beta, including information on their formulation, prevalence,
and application in the model.

SAFETY CONCERNS

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This composite indicator reports whether residents in a The existence of safety concerns among residents is the most important
location are concerned about the following issues taking place: factor affecting returns, based on model results. Locations with no concerns
tribal violence, crime, violence between armed actors, forced at all are more likely to have full returns than locations with safety concerns.
recruitment, and/or sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV). Also as expected, the higher the number of safety concerns in a location, the
This is used to group locations in three categories from worst worse their outcomes with regard to rate of returns.
to best: locations with severe safety concerns (if all issues are
Relying on key informants to provide this data may be an imperfect way to
reported), with moderate safety concerns (if only some issues
assess safety and security concerns in particular, given that they are
are reported), and with no safety concerns.
themselves a member of the community, may hold specific biases, and may
potentially be party to any conflict. Nonetheless, the correlation between
safety concerns and level of returns is the strongest in the model, indicating
Prevalence across locations that the responses obtained here are, in general, logical and make sense in
About 15% of locations fall in the severe concerns category, context.
57% had moderate safety concerns, and 28% reported no
concerns at all.

INFORMAL DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISMS

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

Key informants were queried about remedies available for Locations where there is an informal/customary system to resolve disputes in
disputes in the community, including land disputes. This place tend to have a higher rate of returns and thus are more conducive to
indicator compares locations that operate under informal or returns. Formal mechanisms by themselves did not actually have a positive
customary mechanisms to resolve disputes and those which pull effect on returns, inferring low confidence in formal processes or a
do not report such mechanisms (either because there are no negative role formal actors play in conflict resolution. Similarly, locations in
reported formal or informal mechanisms to resolve disputes where residents cannot avail themselves of any dispute mechanism also tend
or because they rely only on formal mechanisms). to have lower returns. This aligns with other conflict and context analyses of
Sudan and is also a phenomenon observed in other contexts in which the
Return Index is implemented.
Prevalence across locations
At 62%, most locations report access to informal/customary
mechanisms and remedies, while 17% report access to both
formal and informal mechanisms of dispute resolution. Only
13% of locations report only formal mechanisms in place and
the remaining 8% had no mechanisms at all available.

FOOD AVAILABILITY

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator compares locations with reportedly good Locations that suffer from any of the issues impacting food availability had a
availability of basic items and food in the local markets versus moderately lower rate of returns. Most locations are thus negatively impact-
locations in which food access is reportedly limited. ed by this, given the very small prevalence of locations without restrictions in
Limitations affecting food access include limited supply, availability of food and basic items.
insecurity, and/or high prices/unaffordability.

Prevalence across locations

Less than 20% of locations report that basic items and food
are widely available and easily accessed by residents. All other
locations experience challenges in accessing food: residents in Lorem ipsum
44% of locations were affected by significant price hikes, 19%
of locations had limited or infrequent supply, 12% suffered
from security concerns that limited market access, and 6%
reported no access to food at all.

CONFLICT-RELATED HOUSE DESTRUCTION

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator compares locations that do not have residential The absence of house destruction at all is found to be a significant contribut-
destruction due to conflict (either because they were not ing factor to returns, compared to locations that feature house destruction
affected by destruction or houses have been reconstructed) at any level. The model results for this indicator are in line with the
versus locations with the presence of destroyed houses/dwell- understanding that the ability to return to a functional shelter is a primary

|
ings. This indicator only measures destruction caused by need for households and Organization
International is further reinforced by similar
for Migration | IOM findings
Sudan in other
8 conflict, as opposed to natural hazards like erosion or
violent DTM
conflict-affected Return Index contexts.
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM Sudan
flooding.
 of locations had limited or infrequent supply, 12% suffered
from security concerns that limited market access, and 6%
reported no access to food at all. RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

CONFLICT-RELATED HOUSE DESTRUCTION

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator compares locations that do not have residential The absence of house destruction at all is found to be a significant contribut-
destruction due to conflict (either because they were not ing factor to returns, compared to locations that feature house destruction
affected by destruction or houses have been reconstructed) at any level. The model results for this indicator are in line with the
versus locations with the presence of destroyed houses/dwell- understanding that the ability to return to a functional shelter is a primary
ings. This indicator only measures destruction caused by need for households and is further reinforced by similar findings in other
violent conflict, as opposed to natural hazards like erosion or conflict-affected Return Index contexts.
flooding.

Prevalence across locations

Almost 64% of locations report no house destruction. This is
disaggregated into 21% of locations that never experienced
destruction and 43% where all affected houses have been
reconstructed. Following this, 21% of locations report a few
houses currently still destroyed and the remaining 15% of
locations feature half or more of houses destroyed by conflict.

SECURITY ACTORS

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator measures the presence or absence of security The statistical model indicates that locations have a lower rate of returns
configurations. It compares locations with security actors when there are security actors within them or in close vicinity. This suggests
in-location, or nearby, and locations with no security actors that IDPs are less likely to return to such locations. In other words, IDPs
present in the vicinity at all. These actors are not specified in seem more confident to return to their places of origin when these are free
the indicator formulation and can consist of police, formal/in- of security actors.
formal security forces, or other armed groups. Very granular
detail pertaining to types of security actors beyond these While this result seems counter-intuitive, possible explanations for this could
classifications were not asked due to the sensitivity of the include the lack of specific definitions for security forces in the indicator
topic and potential risk it may pose to key informants in formulation, which may include actors that the community perceives as a
answering and enumerators in asking. threat for them. There may also be cases of multiple security actors present
in the same area, generating tensions and competition between them and
thus generating instability there. Finally, there could also be a correlation
between the presence of security actors due to underlying insecurity and
Prevalence across locations ongoing violence in the area, causing movement restrictions and concerns for
In about 40% of locations, key informants report that there safety. In other words, the absence of security forces could well be indicative
are security actors in or nearby the location, compared to of the absence of insecurity for returnees. Better indicator formation in
60% of locations where no security actors are reportedly subsequent rounds is likely needed to better capture such nuance.
present.

PRIMARY EDUCATION

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator compares locations that have a nearby operative Locations where residents can access primary education either in-place or
school that residents can access versus locations with no nearby are more likely to have full returns than locations with no access to
access to schools or with no fully operative schools nearby. As education. This positive impact, however, is mild at best and lower than the
this indicator measures basic access to education, it is limited rest of indicators.
to primary schools that operate on a regular, full-time
schedule.

Prevalence across locations

About 48% of locations report that there is a fully operative
primary school within the location accessible to residents,
followed by 35% of locations where residents can access
schools in the vicinity. Only 17% of locations report no access
at all to education.

HEALTHCARE FACILITIES

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator identifies locations that have access to any type Locations with a health facility in them are more likely to have full returns
of healthcare facility in the location, either hospital, primary than locations with no facility. It must be noted, however, that locations with
health unit, family care unit, or mobile clinic. As opposed to no health facility in them does not necessarily translate into residents not
the previous indicator on education, this measures whether having access to healthcare as people may be able to access facilities nearby.
the facilities exist inside the location itself (not nearby). Thus, a more flexible indicator formulation may yield more impactful results.

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International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM
across locations
|9
There are 45% of locations that do not feature any health
 primary school within the location accessible to residents,
followed by 35% of locations where residents can access
schools in the vicinity. Only 17% of locations report no access
RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022
at all to education.

HEALTHCARE FACILITIES

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator identifies locations that have access to any type Locations with a health facility in them are more likely to have full returns
of healthcare facility in the location, either hospital, primary than locations with no facility. It must be noted, however, that locations with
health unit, family care unit, or mobile clinic. As opposed to no health facility in them does not necessarily translate into residents not
the previous indicator on education, this measures whether having access to healthcare as people may be able to access facilities nearby.
the facilities exist inside the location itself (not nearby). Thus, a more flexible indicator formulation may yield more impactful results.

Prevalence across locations

There are 45% of locations that do not feature any health
facility within them, compared to 55% that report at least one
type of facility. The most frequent situation is the presence of
a primary health unit (44% of locations), followed by hospitals
(15%). The prevalence of family care units and mobile clinics is
very limited.

WATER PROXIMITY

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

As an indicator related to usage of water for domestic needs, Presence of a direct water source in or near the location is found to be a
it measures the distance that households travel to access a significant positive factor contributing to returns, compared to locations that
water source. Locations are grouped as those where residents require residents to travel some distance to the water source. To note,
can access water directly in the location or those where they information on actual water availability as a different proxy indicator and
need to travel a distance to the water source. potentially more linked to return dynamics is not available.

Prevalence across locations

In about 75% of locations, residents lack a water source
nearby for home use. Only 25% of locations have a direct
water source so residents do not have to travel long distances
for it.

ILLEGAL LAND OCCUPATION

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator compares locations where key informants This indicator was not found to be correlated with the rate of returns in the
indicate that land is being occupied by others without permis- location. This implies that it does not seem to play a role at all in preventing
sion from landowners with locations free of land occupation or facilitating returns to these locations. Returns seem as likely to take place
issues. in locations where land is being occupied illegally as in locations with no land
occupation.
This seems particularly counter-intuitive, especially as this issue has been
reported as a cornerstone of tensions and violence that need resolution from
Prevalence across locations a peacebuilding standpoint. The reasons for the lack of statistical significance
There are only 29% of locations with instances of land occupa- could be found in limitations in the data collection: key informants reporting
tion, according to what key informants reported. For the on this highly sensitive indicator may have unreliable information, feel unable
other 71% of locations, no land is reportedly occupied illegally. to speak freely, or lack incentives to report on this condition accurately. The
relatively low proportion of locations with reported land occupation is
indicative of this. Because of the importance of this issue, there remains a
need for a better constructed, more context-sensitive proxy indicator for
this condition for future iterations of the index.

Lorem ipsum
TRIBAL RECONCILIATION

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

Key informants were queried about whether a local reconcilia- This indicator was also not found to be correlated with the rate of returns in
tion process was currently needed between tribes in the the location. The need (or not) of tribal reconciliation does not seem to
surrounding area in order to prevent violence from taking impact the rate of returns in a location. This runs contrary to the idea that,
place. Reconciliation was defined as a process aimed to given the prevalence of conflict and insecurity across Sudan, reconciliation
address the issues that are causing grievances between tribal processes would be vital to stabilizing an area and providing conditions for
groups in a mutually beneficial way. the safe return of displaced persons. At the same time, access to informal
dispute mechanisms is a critical factor for returns and may be similar enough
to tribal reconciliation as an indicator as to cancel out the effect of this
overall. Once again, a more nuanced indicator in relation to this may be
Prevalence across locations needed.

|
Only 27% of the locations indicate that tribal reconciliation is
10 for this purpose. In half of these, such a process is
needed
already taking place while, for the other half, no initiative had
International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM
DTM
Sudan
 nearby for home use. Only 25% of locations have a direct
water source so residents do not have to travel long distances
for it. RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

ILLEGAL LAND OCCUPATION

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

This indicator compares locations where key informants This indicator was not found to be correlated with the rate of returns in the
indicate that land is being occupied by others without permis- location. This implies that it does not seem to play a role at all in preventing
sion from landowners with locations free of land occupation or facilitating returns to these locations. Returns seem as likely to take place
issues. in locations where land is being occupied illegally as in locations with no land
occupation.
This seems particularly counter-intuitive, especially as this issue has been
reported as a cornerstone of tensions and violence that need resolution from
Prevalence across locations a peacebuilding standpoint. The reasons for the lack of statistical significance
There are only 29% of locations with instances of land occupa- could be found in limitations in the data collection: key informants reporting
tion, according to what key informants reported. For the on this highly sensitive indicator may have unreliable information, feel unable
other 71% of locations, no land is reportedly occupied illegally. to speak freely, or lack incentives to report on this condition accurately. The
relatively low proportion of locations with reported land occupation is
indicative of this. Because of the importance of this issue, there remains a
need for a better constructed, more context-sensitive proxy indicator for
this condition for future iterations of the index.

TRIBAL RECONCILIATION

What it measures? Key takeaways for the index

Key informants were queried about whether a local reconcilia- This indicator was also not found to be correlated with the rate of returns in
tion process was currently needed between tribes in the the location. The need (or not) of tribal reconciliation does not seem to
surrounding area in order to prevent violence from taking impact the rate of returns in a location. This runs contrary to the idea that,
place. Reconciliation was defined as a process aimed to given the prevalence of conflict and insecurity across Sudan, reconciliation
address the issues that are causing grievances between tribal processes would be vital to stabilizing an area and providing conditions for
groups in a mutually beneficial way. the safe return of displaced persons. At the same time, access to informal
dispute mechanisms is a critical factor for returns and may be similar enough
to tribal reconciliation as an indicator as to cancel out the effect of this
overall. Once again, a more nuanced indicator in relation to this may be
Prevalence across locations needed.
Only 27% of the locations indicate that tribal reconciliation is
needed for this purpose. In half of these, such a process is
already taking place while, for the other half, no initiative had
taken place in spite of being needed. In the remaining 73% of
locations, key informants report that reconciliation is not
needed.

DTM
Sudan
International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM | 11
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

ANNEX 2: HOTSPOTS FACTSHEETS

One of the main applications of the Return Index in general is the identification of geographical clusters or hotspots of instability.
These hotspots consist of several locations close to each other with a concentration of very poor and unstable living conditions,
creating a whole social ecosystem in which returns are extremely limited or run the risk of triggering secondary displacement.

Figure 6 is a density map that more clearly highlights these hotspots of instability. Concentrations of locations with low
scores are visible in red and they correspond to the eight hotspots identified within the report. A factsheet for each hotspot
is provided in this annex, mapping the locations by score and describing the priority factors that drive those scores down.
Figure 6. Density map of index scores for all locations assessed

EGYPT

K.S.A
LIBYA

Red Sea
Northern

River Nile

CHAD North Darfur

Khartoum Kassala
ERITREA

North Kordofan
Jebel Moon Kebkabiya
Al Jazirah
Gedaref
West Darfur Al Fasher
Ag Geneina
Shamal Jabal Marrah
White Nile
Sennar LEGEND
Wasat Jabal Marrah Score Total
Habila - WD
Central Darfur West Kordofan
Low

Dilling
South Kordofan High

Blue Nile Hot Spot Locality

South Darfur East Darfur Kadugli

International
State
Locality
Undetermined Boundaries
Abyei PCA Area

Abyei PCA ETHIOPIA . 100 Kilometer

This map is for illustration purposes

only. Names and boundaries on this
C.A.R map do not imply official endorsement
or acceptance by IOM.
SOUTH SUDAN

Lorem ipsum

12 | International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan

Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM
DTM
Sudan
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Locations of return
CLUSTER 1 KEBKABIYA, NORTH DARFUR 15
The locations assessed in Kebkabiya are clustered together in the eastern part of the locality, close to Returnee individuals
Sortony IDP camp and a former UNAMID base.5 They all present some of the lowest scores in the
assessment, indicative of significantly poor living conditions. 7,500
All locations report severe safety concerns linked to risks of violence and crime –– following the
BREAKDOWN OF SCORE
withdrawal of the UNAMID mission in April 2021, tensions flared between government forces and
other armed groups. Food availability is also reportedly very limited. Many of residents’ dwellings Indicators with
remain destroyed by conflict and they reportedly have virtually no access to basic services. HIGH effect
On the positive side, informal remedies help resolve disputes between residents within these locations
Poor No safety concerns
and there are no security forces or groups reported nearby at the time of data collection.
Indicators with
MEDIUM effect
SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN
Kutum
RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE Adequate Informal dispute resolution
As Serief AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS
Score Total
Poor Food availability
0 - 25
26 - 50 Score Number of Locations
51 - 75 Poor No house destruction
76 - 100 75-100 0
North Darfur Indicators with
LOW effect
Kebkabiya
Al Fasher 50-75 0
Poor Access to health facilities
Tawila
Saraf Omra
26-50 2
Poor Access to school

Poor Direct water proximity

0-25 13
Zalingi
Central Darfur Shamal Jabal Marrah
Gharb Jabal Marrah Adequate No presence of security actors
Wasat Jabal Marrah Tawila

CLUSTER 1 KEBKABIYA, NORTH DARFUR

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Toker y
Tar na
Tar gi Hajr
Tar gi S out h
Kingo
Tabaldiya
S odog
Komy
Kaour a
Dady
B or r y
B awr y
B ahr E ljabal
Tonduba
Taiba

⁵ For more information see, IOM DTM, Sudan Situation Assessment: Report: Sortony Camp, Kebkabiya, North Darfur (2021).
⁶ For more information see, IOM DTM Sudan Emergency Event Tracking Jebel Moon, West Darfur, Update 005 (2022).

DTM
Sudan
International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM | 13
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

"
"
"

Locations of return
13
"

CLUSTER 2 JEBEL MOON, WEST DARFUR

"

" "
"
"
"
"

"
"

"
"

" " "

" "
"
"

"

"
"
"

"

"
"

"
Returnee individuals
"

The locations assessed in Jebel Moon are relatively close to the border with Chad and around the
"

"
"
"

"
"

"
"

"
18,630
"

locality’s capital, Saleia.6

"

"
"
"

"

"

"
"
"
The majority of locations present living conditions significantly below the average, especially due to
"
"
"

"
"
"
"

safety concerns, limited food availability, and the absence of informal dispute resolution mechanisms.
"

"

BREAKDOWN OF SCORE
"
"

"

Most of the insecurity is driven by the risk of tribal conflicts and crime, which indirectly links with a
"
"
"
"

reported breakdown of customary remedies. This is reflective of the fact that Jebel Moon remains a Indicators with
"
"
"

HIGH effect
"

site of continuous conflicts between nomads and farmers over issues of land accessibility and
"
"
"

"
"

ownership.
"
"
"
"
"

Average No safety concerns

"
"
"
" " "
" "
"
"
"
"

Services are relatively limited, especially related to access to education and water sources in isolated
"
"

"
" "
"

Indicators with
"

locations.
"
"

MEDIUM effect
"
"
"

" "

"
"
"

"

At Tina
SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN
"
"

RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE Poor Informal dispute resolution

"

Kernoi
" "

AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS

"

Kulbus
"
"

Score Total
"
"

Poor Food availability

"
"

0 - 25
"
"

Score Number of Locations

"
"

26 - 50
"

"

"

51 - 75
"

Adequate No house destruction

"

As Serief
" "
"

"
"

"
"

75-100 0
"

76 - 100 North Darfur

"

"
"

Indicators with
"
"
"

LOW effect
"
"

" "
"
"
"

50-75 2
"
"

West Darfur
"

" " "

"

"

"

Jebel Moon
Average Access to health facilities
"

"
"
"
"
"
"
"

" "
" "

26-50 8
Poor Access to school

Saraf Omra
Sirba 0-25 3 Poor Direct water proximity

Kereneik Poor No presence of security actors

CLUSTER 2 JEBEL MOON, WEST DARFUR

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ars ho
Ha s ha ba
Hijlija
Khom i
Arm o
Gozm inno
S a leia
Ha i E lg erif
Alona
Um Gus s a
Lorem ipsum
Abuluja m
Ha i M a brooka
M a njora Ta t

14 | International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan

Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM
DTM
Sudan
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Locations of return
CLUSTER 3 HABILA, WEST DARFUR "
"

"

"
17
"

Locations of return are spread across the locality, and includes its administrative capital, Habila Town.
"

Returnee individuals
"
"
"
"

The vast majority of locations show very unstable conditions for returns, with some exceptions with
15,955
"
"

"

"
"

a relatively positive score.

"

"
"
"

"

" "

Residents appear very concerned about the risk of violence from all manner of sources. No informal
"
"

BREAKDOWN OF SCORE
"
"

dispute resolution is reportedly in place. Issues with food access are widespread affecting all locations,
"
"
"
"

either due to security issues limiting supply, lack of affordability, or markets not operating. Another
"
"
"

Indicators with
"
"

factor driving scores low is the general lack of direct access to water sources.
"

HIGH effect
"

"

"
"
"

"

"

Houses however are reportedly not affected by conflict and healthcare and education are available
"

"

Poor No safety concerns

"
"
"
"

for most residents.

"
"
"
"
"

Indicators with
"
" "
"
"

" "
"
" "
""

MEDIUM effect
"
""
"

"
"

"
""
"
""
" "

"
""
"

RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE

"
"
"

"
""

SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN

"
""
""
"

AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS

"" "

Poor Informal dispute resolution

"" "

Ag Geneina
"" "

"
"

Kereneik
"

Score Total
0 - 25 Score Number of Locations Poor Food availability
26 - 50 West Darfur

51 - 75 75-100 0 Adequate No house destruction

76 - 100 " Azum
"

"

Habila - WD Indicators with

"
"

"
"
"

"

Beida
" "
"

LOW effect
"
"
" "

" " "

50-75 1
" "
" "
"

"
" "
"
" "
"

"
" "
" " "
" "
" "
" "
"

"
"
"

"
"
"
"

Average Access to health facilities

"

Central Darfur
"
"
" "

"

26-50 14
"
"
"

Adequate Access to school

"
"
"

"
"

Bendasi
" "
"

"

"

0-25 2
"

Poor Direct water proximity

"

"
"
"
"

Foro Baranga
"
"
"

No presence of security actors

"

Average
"

"

Wadi Salih
"
"
"

"
"
"

"
"

CLUSTER 3 HABILA, WEST DARFUR

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Umdinabiro
Hemmieda
Kojono
Gedaida
Dels oo
Sis i Gobe
Toules
Gobe
Sawani
Ayor
Al Salam
Nour E l Houda
Dar E l Salam
Sala
Taweng
J ammaa
M as s mengi

DTM
Sudan
International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM | 15
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

CLUSTER 4 WASAT AND SHAMAL JABAL MARRAH, Locations of return

25
CENTRAL DARFUR
Returnee individuals
This hotspot encompasses two localities, Wasat and Shamal Jabal Marrah, as they share similar
dynamics. They both have some of the largest returnee populations. Most locations with the highest 145,074
severity are clustered in the north of Jabal Marrah, close to Kebkabiya.
Contrary to the rest of the hotspots, here safety and security is not a driver of instability. Rather, the BREAKDOWN OF SCORE
main drivers of it are house destruction and food insecurity. Most locations in Shamal Jabal Marrah
remain largely affected by house destruction due to past conflict involving government forces and the Indicators with
Sudan Liberation Army. In addition, food availability in local markets is reportedly limited. HIGH effect
Service provision is average at best, with residents in around half of locations unable to access them Adequate No safety concerns
overall.
Indicators with
MEDIUM effect
SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE
North Darfur
Tawila AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS Average Informal dispute resolution
Score Total Kebkabiya

0 - 25 Score Number of Locations Poor Food availability

26 - 50
51 - 75 Poor No house destruction
76 - 100
75-100 0

Shamal Jabal Marrah Indicators with

LOW effect
50-75 7
Central Darfur Average Access to health facilities
26-50 12
Wasat Jabal Marrah Average Access to school

Gharb Jabal Marrah

0-25 6 Poor Direct water proximity
Sharg Aj Jabal South Darfur
Adequate No presence of security actors

CLUSTER 4 WASAT AND SHAMAL JABAL MARRAH,

CENTRAL DARFUR
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
J abel Tekka
S abay
Ar w
B oulay E as t
Hilat Dict or
R ongo R ongo
J abel Tekka-Dongla
Lugo
R onga
S alla
Olo
Golo
S ar oung S har iq
S ar oung Ghar ib
Tr eng Shar ig
B oulay W es t
R okor o
Fanga S uq
Lorem ipsum
Killing
J okos t i
Amo
S olow
Kaia
Abounga
M ohdeen

16 | International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan

Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM
DTM
Sudan
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Locations of return
CLUSTER 5 GENEINA, WEST DARFUR " "
15

"
"
"
"
Most locations of return assessed in Ag Geneina locality are located around West Darfur’s

"
Returnee individuals

"
"
"
"

"
administrative capital.7

"
23,995

"
"
" "
"
Main issues in the locality driving poor living conditions and lack of returns are related to safety and

"
"
"
"
security. The vast majority of locations reported concerns over high risks of violence from tribal

"
"
"

BREAKDOWN OF SCORE

"
"

conflicts which tend to recur and flare up typically during harvest seasons or armed clashes as well as

"

"
"
" " "
"

"
"

from crime. All locations also have limited food availability, mostly linked to high prices or the security

"
Indicators with

"
"
"
situation challenging supply. The locality is heavily impacted by the presence of security forces and HIGH effect

"
"
"
"
armed groups nearby.
"
" "

"
"
"

Poor No safety concerns

"
"

" " "

"

"

Given that this is a more urban environment, issues in accessing services are less acute than in other
"
"
"
"
"

Indicators with
"

localities.
"

" "
"
"
"

MEDIUM effect
"
"
"
"

"

"
"
"

RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE

"

SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN

"

Jebel Moon
Adequate Informal dispute resolution
"
"

AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS

"
"

"
"

"

"

Score Total
"
"

Sirba
Poor Food availability
"
"

0 - 25
"

Score Number of Locations

"
"

26 - 50
"

"

"

No house destruction
"

51 - 75 Average
"

"

75-100 0
"

"
"

76 - 100
"
"
"
"

Indicators with
"

"
"

50-75 3
"

LOW effect
"

"
"
"

West Darfur
"

Ag Geneina
"
"

"
"

Kereneik Average Access to health facilities

"
"

11
"

26-50
"
"

"

" "
"
"
"

Average Access to school

"
"
"

"
" "
"
"

"
"" " "
"
""

0-25 1
" "

"
"

" ""

Average Direct water proximity

""
" "

" "
" ""
""

"
""
"
""
"

Beida
""
"
""
"

""
"
"

"

Poor No presence of security actors

"
"
"

Habila - WD
"
"
"
"

CLUSTER 5 GENEINA, WEST DARFUR

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Anjemi
Nyjor o
Has haba Kar ak
Goker
Guelo
Sult an Hous e
M inis t r ies Ar ea
Kur t i
Hai E l M adar is Ar ea
Hai Al J abal Ar ea
J amaa
B ir Tenjo
M oli
Al Souk Ar ea
Deliba

7 For more information see, IOM DTM, Ag Geneina EET Series Summary (Update 1 – Update 20) (2022).

DTM
Sudan
International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM | 17
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Locations of return
CLUSTER 6 KADUGLI, SOUTH KORDOFAN 33
Over the last few years, Kadugli has been the site of repeated inter-communal conflict between Arab
Returnee individuals
and Nuba tribesmen. Most locations of return assessed here are clustered within the urban area of
the administrative capital. There is a mix of locations with very poor living conditions as well as others 3,871
with relatively good conditions. In rural areas, most locations feature a low index score.
The main causes of poor living conditions are mostly linked to material wellbeing. Locations reported BREAKDOWN OF SCORE
issues with food availability mainly due to high prices and lack of affordability. Health provision is also
limited to only some areas in the center. Indicators with
HIGH effect

Adequate No safety concerns

Indicators with
MEDIUM effect
Delami
SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE
AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS Poor Informal dispute resolution
Score Total
0 - 25
Al Lagowa Score Number of Locations Poor Food availability
26 - 50 Ar Reif Ash Shargi
51 - 75
Adequate No house destruction
76 - 100 75-100 1

Indicators with
South Kordofan
50-75 12
LOW effect
West Kordofan
Kadugli
Average Access to health facilities
26-50 17
Adequate Access to school
Keilak Um Durein

0-25 3 Poor Direct water proximity

Al Buram
Poor No presence of security actors

CLUSTER 6 KADUGLI, SOUTH KORDOFAN

(Only the 22 locations with the lowest scores)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Kiga E lkhail
Kuya
Kohlyat
Alzindiya
Almt hlat h
Als haeer
E l- M as hays h
M er y B ar h
Um B at ah
Gaar Alhajar
Algoz Ganob
Algar god
Tulo
E lnas s eij
Al S hemma E as t
Kalba
Hajar E nor
Als lamat
Lorem ipsum
Alr af dif
Alban Gadid
Um B at t ah Ghar b
M er t a Nor t h

18 | International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan

Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM
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Sudan
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Locations of return
CLUSTER 7 DILLING, SOUTH KORDOFAN
21
Dilling’s urban area and surroundings concentrate the large majority of locations assessed in this
locality. Overall, there are no locations with extremely low index scores, but most locations tend to Returnee individuals
have intermediate-low living conditions. 2,375
As in other contexts, safety concerns and food insecurity (linked to high prices) are the primary causes
explaining these scores. Other indicators such as housing and services are mostly positive.
BREAKDOWN OF SCORE
Indicators with
HIGH effect

Poor No safety concerns

Indicators with
MEDIUM effect
SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE Adequate Informal dispute resolution
Abu Zabad
Al Quoz AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS
Score Total Poor Food availability
0 - 25 Score Number of Locations
26 - 50 As Sunut Adequate No house destruction
51 - 75
75-100 0
76 - 100
Indicators with
South Kordofan LOW effect
West Kordofan
Dilling
50-75 9
Adequate Access to health facilities
Habila - SK

26-50 12 Adequate Access to school

0-25 0 Poor Direct water proximity

Al Lagowa
Delami
Poor No presence of security actors
Ar Reif Ash Shargi

CLUSTER 7 DILLING, SOUTH KORDOFAN

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ha i Al s a la m
Ha i Alm a k S ha m a l
Um Alw a n
Nor E lhuda /E ldelim d a
Ahem ida y a
Alla ba d
Alw a dy
M a ra f eed
Hia Altorg
Ha i Als a f a
Alra deif
Alhla Alja dida
Feris h
Feris h 2
S eng a a t
Al S a ir Ala m in Ali E is s a
Keg nk
Tom a a t S ha rig
S a liheen
Ga dra
Alf a rs ha y a

DTM
Sudan
International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan
Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM | 19
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

Locations of return
CLUSTER 8 EL FASHER, NORTH DARFUR 71
El Fasher is the locality with the largest number of locations of return assessed. The majority are
clustered on the western side of the locality, near Kutum. There is a high diversity of locations in terms Returnee individuals
of score – many have some of the lowest index scores overall and others report relatively positive 49,019
living conditions.
Those in the worst state are located relatively far away from El Fasher’s administrative capital, affected BREAKDOWN OF SCORE
by spiraling conflicts between farmers and nomads, especially during the rainy season. For these
locations, the drivers of instability are several, mostly linked to safety concerns due to the risk of Indicators with
HIGH effect
renewed clashes, food insecurity (linked to security-related issues hindering supply), and housing
destruction due to conflict. Poor water access and limited access to education facilities also hinder Average No safety concerns
living conditions and thus returns here as well.
Indicators with
MEDIUM effect
SEVERITY OF LIVING CONDITIONS IN RETURN RETURN INDEX BETA SCORE
AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS Adequate Informal dispute resolution
Kutum
Melit Poor Food availability
Score Number of Locations
North Darfur Average No house destruction
75-100 6

Indicators with
LOW effect
50-75 30

Kebkabiya Al Fasher Adequate Access to health facilities

26-50 27
Average Access to school

Kebkabiya
Score Total
Tawila Adequate Direct water proximity
0 - 25 0-25 8
Kelemando
Central Darfur 26 - 50
Dar As Salam
51 - 75 Adequate No presence of security actors
76 - 100

CLUSTER 8 AL FASHER, NORTH DARFUR

(Only the 22 locations with the lowest scores)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ailag
Kor ma J ar t ouba
M ogabel
S hagr a A
Towah
Nakot i
Kor ma Tar gona
Kor ma Kaila
Kat ool
Kar n
Hillat M ahdi
Um Kat er a
Kor ma Kela Al E oon
S imyat S har g
Gef af eel
J aber Door
Lorem ipsum
Um Os har a
Um Kat eer a E as t
Kedil
S hagr a B
Dar ma
Kor ma Hillat J aber e
J amba

20 | International Organization for Migration | IOM Sudan

Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM
DTM
Sudan
 RETURN INDEX BETA SEPTEMBER 2022

IOM DISCLAIMER
The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily

designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do

not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning
the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or
concerning its frontiers or boundaries.

migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its

partners in the international community to: assist in the meeting of operational
challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social
and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and
well-being of migrants.

DTM SERVICES & CONTACTS

For further information, please contact IOM Sudan

Tel.: +249 157 554 600/1/2

E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.sudan.iom.int I www.dtm.iom.int/sudan

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Sudan
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Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM |