Introduction To Statistics (SRWM)
Introduction To Statistics (SRWM)
Introduction To Statistics (SRWM)
CHAPTER 1
1. INTRODUCTION
Definition and classifications of statistics
Definition:
We can define statistics in two ways.
1. Plural sense (lay man definition).
It is an aggregate or collection of numerical facts.
2. Singular sense (formal definition)
Statistics is defined as the science of collecting, organizing, presenting,
analyzing and interpreting numerical data for the purpose of assisting in
making a more effective decision.
Classifications:
Depending on how data can be used, statistics is sometimes divided in to
two main areas or branches.
1. Descriptive Statistics: is concerned with summary calculations, graphs,
charts and tables.
2. Inferential Statistics: is a method used to generalize from a sample to a
population. For example, the average income of all families (the population)
in Ethiopia can be estimated from figures obtained from a few hundred (the
sample) families.
It is important because statistical data usually arises from sample.
Statistical techniques based on probability theory are required.
Applications of statistics:
In almost all fields of human endeavor.
Almost all human beings in their daily life are subjected to obtaining
numerical facts e.g. abut price.
Applicable in some process e.g. invention of certain drugs, extent of
environmental pollution.
In industries especially in quality control area.
Uses of statistics:
The main function of statistics is to enlarge our knowledge of complex
phenomena. The following are some uses of statistics:
1. It presents facts in a definite and precise form.
2. Data reduction.
3. Measuring the magnitude of variations in data.
4. Furnishes a technique of comparison
5. Estimating unknown population characteristics.
6. Testing and formulating of hypothesis.
7. Studying the relationship between two or more variable.
8. Forecasting future events.
Limitations of statistics
As a science statistics has its own limitations. The following are some of the
limitations:
Deals with only quantitative information.
Deals with only aggregate of facts and not with individual data items.
Statistical data are only approximately and not mathematical correct.
Statistics can be easily misused and therefore should be used be
experts.
Scales of measurement
Proper knowledge about the nature and type of data to be dealt with is
essential in order to specify and apply the proper statistical method for their
analysis and inferences. Measurement scale refers to the property of value
assigned to the data based on the properties of order, distance and fixed zero.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Order
The property of order exists when an object that has more of the attribute
than another object, is given a bigger number by the rule system. This
relationship must hold for all objects in the "real world".
Distance
Fixed Zero
SCALE TYPES
Nominal Scales
Nominal scales are measurement systems that possess none of the three
properties stated above.
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Examples:
Ordinal Scales
Ordinal Scales are measurement systems that possess the property of order,
but not the property of distance. The property of fixed zero is not important
if the property of distance is not satisfied.
Examples:
Interval Scales
Interval scales are measurement systems that possess the properties of Order
and distance, but not the property of fixed zero.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Examples:
o IQ
o Temperature in oF.
Ratio Scales
Ratio scales are measurement systems that possess all three properties:
order, distance, and fixed zero. The added power of a fixed zero allows
ratios of numbers to be meaningfully interpreted; i.e. the ratio of Bekele’s
height to Martha's height is 1.32, whereas this is not possible with interval
scales.
Examples:
o Weight
o Height
o Number of students
o Age
The following present a list of different attributes and rules for assigning
numbers to objects. Try to classify the different measurement systems into
one of the four types of scales. (Exercise)
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
CHAPTER 2
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Tabular presentation
Diagrammatic and Graphic presentation.
Definitions:
Used for data that can be place in specific categories such as nominal, or
ordinal. e.g. marital status.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Example: a social worker collected the following data on marital status for 25
persons.(M=married, S=single, W=widowed, D=divorced)
M S D W D
S S M M M
W D S M M
W D D S S
S W W D D
Solution:
Since the data are categorical, discrete classes can be used. There are four types
of marital status M, S, D, and W. These types will be used as class for the
distribution. We follow procedure to construct the frequency distribution.
Step 2: Tally the data and place the result in column (2).
Step 3: Count the tally and place the result in column (3).
f
% * 100 Where f= frequency of the class, n=total number of value.
n
Percentages are not normally a part of frequency distribution but they can be
added since they are used in certain types diagrammatic such as pie charts.
Combing all the steps one can construct the following frequency distribution.
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-Is a table of all the potential raw score values that could possible occur in the
data along with the number of times each actually occurred.
First find the smallest and largest raw score in the collected data.
Arrange the data in order of magnitude and count the frequency.
To facilitate counting one may include a column of tallies.
Example:
80 76 90 85 80
70 60 62 70 85
65 60 63 74 75
76 70 70 80 85
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-When the range of the data is large, the data must be grouped in to classes that
are more than one unit in width.
Definitions:
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Class width: the difference between the upper and lower class
boundaries of any class. It is also the difference between the lower limits
of any two consecutive classes or the difference between any two
consecutive class marks.
Class mark (Mid points): it is the average of the lower and upper class
limits or the average of upper and lower class boundary.
Cumulative frequency: is the number of observations less than/more
than or equal to a specific value.
Cumulative frequency above: it is the total frequency of all values
greater than or equal to the lower class boundary of a given class.
Cumulative frequency blow: it is the total frequency of all values less
than or equal to the upper class boundary of a given class.
Cumulative Frequency Distribution (CFD): it is the tabular
arrangement of class interval together with their corresponding
cumulative frequencies. It can be more than or less than type, depending
on the type of cumulative frequency used.
Relative frequency (rf): it is the frequency divided by the total
frequency.
Relative cumulative frequency (rcf): it is the cumulative frequency
divided by the total frequency.
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Example*:
11 29 6 33 14 31 22 27 19 20
18 17 22 38 23 21 26 34 39 27
Solutions:
Step 1: Find the highest and the lowest value H=39, L=6
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Step 6: Find the upper class limit; e.g. the first upper class=12-U=12-1=11
11, 17, 23, 29, 35, 41 are the upper class limits.
So combining step 5 and step 6, one can construct the following classes.
Class limits
6 – 11
12 – 17
18 – 23
24 – 29
30 – 35
36 – 41
Class boundary
5.5 – 11.5
11.5 – 17.5
17.5 – 23.5
23.5 – 29.5
29.5 – 35.5
35.5 – 41.5
Step 9: Write the numeric values for the tallies in the frequency column.
Class Class Class Tally Freq. Cf (less Cf (more rf. rcf (less
limit boundary Mark than than than type
type) type)
6 – 11 5.5 – 11.5 8.5 // 2 2 20 0.10 0.10
12 – 17 11.5 – 17.5 14.5 // 2 4 18 0.10 0.20
18 – 23 17.5 – 23.5 20.5 ////// 7 11 16 0.35 0.55
24 – 29 23.5 – 29.5 26.5 //// 4 15 9 0.20 0.75
30 – 35 29.5 – 35.5 32.5 /// 3 18 5 0.15 0.90
36 – 41 35.5 – 41.5 38.5 // 2 20 2 0.10 1.00
These are techniques for presenting data in visual displays using geometric and
pictures.
Importance:
-The three most commonly used diagrammatic presentation for discrete as well as
qualitative data are:
Pie charts
Pictogram
Bar charts
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Pie chart
Valueofthepart
Angleof sec tor * 100
thewholequantity
Solutions:
Step 3: Using a protractor and compass, graph each section and write its name
corresponding percentage.
Boys Men
Girls Women
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Pictogram
Bar Charts:
- A set of bars (thick lines or narrow rectangles) representing some magnitude over
time space.
- They are useful for comparing aggregate over time space.
- Bars can be drawn either vertically or horizontally.
- There are different types of bar charts. The most common being :
Simple bar chart
Deviation or two way bar chart
Broken bar chart
Component or sub divided bar chart.
Multiple bar charts.
Solutions:
30
25
Sales in $
20
15
10
5
0
A B C
product
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100
80
Sales in $
Product C
60
Product B
40
Product A
20
0
1957 1958 1959
Year of production
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Solutions:
60
50
Sales in $
40 Product A
30 Product B
20 Product C
10
0
1957 1958 1959
Year of production
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Histogram
A graph which displays the data by using vertical bars of height to represent
frequencies. Class boundaries are placed along the horizontal axes. Class marks and
class limits are some times used as quantity on the X axes.
4
Value Frequency
0
2.5 8.5 14.5 20.5 26.5 32.5 38.5 44.5
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CHAPTER 3
3. MEASURES OF CENTERAL TENDENCY
Introduction
When we want to make comparison between groups of numbers it is good to
have a single value that is considered to be a good representative of each
group. This single value is called the average of the group. Averages are also
called measures of central tendency.
An average which is representative is called typical average and an average
which is not representative and has only a theoretical value is called a
descriptive average. A typical average should posses the following:
It should be rigidly defined.
It should be based on all observation under investigation.
It should be as little as affected by extreme observations.
It should be capable of further algebraic treatment.
It should be as little as affected by fluctuations of sampling.
It should be ease to calculate and simple to understand.
Objectives:
To comprehend the data easily.
To facilitate comparison.
To make further statistical analysis.
The expression is read, "the sum of X sub i from i equals 1 to N." It means
"add up all the numbers."
Example: Suppose the following were scores made on the first homework
assignment for five students in the class: 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8. In this example set
of five numbers, where N=5, the summation could be written:
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The "i=1" in the bottom of the summation notation tells where to begin the
sequence of summation. If the expression were written with "i=3", the
summation would start with the third number in the set. For example:
In the example set of numbers, this would give the following result:
The "N" in the upper part of the summation notation tells where to end the
sequence of summation. If there were only three scores then the summation
and example would be:
For example:
PROPERTIES OF SUMMATION
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n
1. k nk where k is any constant
i 1
2. n
kX i
n
k X i
where k is any constant
i 1 i 1
n n
3. ( a bX i ) na b X i where a and b are any constant
i 1 i 1
n n n
4. ( X i Yi ) Xi Y i
i 1 i 1 i 1
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Solutions:
5
a) X i 5 7 7 6 8 33
i 1
5
b) Y i 6 7 8 7 8 36
i 1
5
c) 10 5 *10 50
i 1
5
d) (X i Yi ) (5 6) (7 7) (7 8) (6 7) (8 8) 69 33 36
i 1
5
e) (X i Yi ) (5 6) (7 7) (7 8) (6 7) (8 8) 3 33 36
i 1
5
f) X Y i i 5 * 6 7 * 7 7 * 8 6 * 7 8 * 8 241
i 1
5
2
g) X i 5 2 7 2 7 2 6 2 8 2 223
i 1
5 5
h) ( X i )( Yi ) 33 * 36 1188
i 1 i 1
X
i 1
i
X
n
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
If X1 occurs f1 times
If X2occurs f2 times
.
.
If Xn occurs fn times
k
fX
i 1
i i
Then the mean will be X k
, where k is the number of classes
f
i 1
i
k
and f i n
i 1
i 1
fi X i
36
X 4
5 . 15
7
i 1
fi
If data are given in the shape of a continuous frequency distribution, then the
mean is obtained as follows:
k
fi X i
X i 1
, Where Xi =the class mark of the ith class and fi = the frequency
k
i 1
fi
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
21- 25 12
26- 30 9
31- 35 6
Solutions:
First find the class marks
Find the product of frequency and class marks
Find mean using the formula.
Class fi Xi Xifi
6- 10 35 8 280
11- 15 23 13 299
16- 20 15 18 270
21- 25 12 23 276
26- 30 9 28 252
31- 35 6 33 198
Total 100 1575
6
f
i 1
i Xi
1575
X 6
15 .75
100
f i 1
i
Exercises:
1. Marks of 75 students are summarized in the following frequency
distribution:
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For raw data suppose we have used the following coding system.
di X i A
X i di A
n n
Xi
i 1
(d
i 1
i A)
X
n n
n
d
i 1
i
X A
n
X A d
Where A is an assumed mean and d is the mean of the coded data.
If the data are expressed in terms of ungrouped frequency distribution
di X i A
X i di A
k k
fX
i 1
i i f (d
i 1
i i A)
X
n n
k
fd i 1
i i
X A
n
X A d
In both cases the true mean is the assumed mean plus the average of the
deviations from the assumed mean.
Suppose the data is given in the shape of continuous frequency
distribution with a constant class size of w then the following coding is
appropriate.
X A
d i
i w
X wd A
i i
k k
f X f ( wd A )
i i i i
X i1 i 1
n n
k
f wd
i i
X A i 1
n
X A wd
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10
a) d 1
10
X A d 7 1 6
The true mean is 6.
b) Using Xi=A+di we obtain the following original observations:
8, 6, 5, 5, 7, 4, 5, 9, 7, 4.
2. The sum of the squared deviations of a set of items from their mean is
n n
the minimum. i.e. ( Xi X ) 2 ( X i A) 2 , A X
i 1 i 1
X n X 2 n 2 .... X k n k X n
i 1
i i
Xc 1 1 k
n1 n 2 ...n k
n i 1
i
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Females Males
X 1 60 X 2 72
n1 30 n2 70
2
X 1 n1 X 2 n 2 X i ni
i 1
Xc 2
n1 n 2 ni i 1
4. If a wrong figure has been used when calculating the mean the correct
mean can be obtained without repeating the whole process using:
(CorrectValue WrongValue)
CorrectMean WrongMean
n
Where n is total number of observations.
Example: An average weight of 10 students was calculated to be
65.Latter it was discovered that one weight was misread as 40 instead
of 80 k.g. Calculate the correct average weight.
Solutions:
(CorrectValue WrongValue)
CorrectMean WrongMean
n
(80 40)
CorrectMean 65 65 4 69k.g.
10
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Weighted Mean
When a proper importance is desired to be given to different data a
weighted mean is appropriate.
Weights are assigned to each item in proportion to its relative
importance.
Let X1, X2, …Xn be the value of items of a series and W1, W2, …Wn
their corresponding weights , then the weighted mean denoted X w is
defined as:
n
X W
i 1
i i
Xw n
W
i 1
i
Example:
A student obtained the following percentage in an examination:
English 60, Biology 75, Mathematics 63, Physics 59, and chemistry
55.Find the students weighted arithmetic mean if weights 1, 2, 1, 3, 3
respectively are allotted to the subjects.
Solutions:
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X W
i 1
i i
60 * 1 75 * 2 63 * 1 59 * 3 55 * 3 615
Xw 5 61.5
1 2 1 3 3 10
W
i 1
i
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
1
log( G .M ) log( n X 1 * X 2 * ... * X n ) log( X 1 * X 2 * ... * X n ) n
1 1
log( G .M ) log( X 1 * X 2 * .... * X n ) (log X 1 log X 2 ... log X n )
n n
1 n
log( G .M ) log X i
n i1
The logarithm of the G.M of a set of observation is the arithmetic
mean of
their logarithm.
n
1
G .M Anti log(
n
log X
i1
i )
Example:
Find the G.M of the numbers 2, 4, 8.
Solutions:
G.M n X 1 * X 2 * ... * X n 3 2 * 4 * 8 3 64 4
Remark: The Geometric Mean is useful and appropriate for finding averages of
ratios.
The Harmonic Mean
The harmonic mean of X1, X2 , X3 …Xn is denoted by H.M and given by:
n
H.M n , This is called simple harmonic mean.
1
i 1 X i
If observations X1, X2, …Xn have weights W1, W2, …Wn respectively, then
their harmonic mean is given by
n
W
i 1
i
H.M n , This is called Weighted Harmonic Mean.
W
i 1
i Xi
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Example: A cyclist pedals from his house to his college at speed of 10 km/hr
and back from the college to his house at 15 km/hr. Find the average speed.
Solution: Here the distance is constant
The simple H.M is appropriate for this problem.
X1= 10km/hr X2=15km/hr
2
H.M 12km / hr
1 1
10 15
The Mode
- Mode is a value which occurs most frequently in a set of values
- The mode may not exist and even if it does exist, it may not be unique.
- In case of discrete distribution the value having the maximum frequency is
the model value.
Examples:
1. Find the mode of 5, 3, 5, 8, 9
Mode =5
2. Find the mode of 8, 9, 9, 7, 8, 2, and 5.
It is a bimodal Data: 8 and 9
3. Find the mode of 4, 12, 3, 6, and 7.
No mode for this data.
- The mode of a set of numbers X1, X2, …Xn is usually denoted by X̂ .
If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the mode
is defined as:
1
X̂ L mo w
1 2
Where:
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solutions:
2
Xˆ 45 10
2 26
45.71
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Merits:
It is not affected by extreme observations.
Easy to calculate and simple to understand.
It can be calculated for distribution with open end class
Demerits:
It is not rigidly defined.
It is not based on all observations
It is not suitable for further mathematical treatment.
It is not stable average, i.e. it is affected by fluctuations of
sampling to some extent.
Often its value is not unique.
Note: being the point of maximum density, mode is especially useful in
finding the most popular size in studies relating to marketing, trade,
business, and industry. It is the appropriate average to be used to find the
ideal size.
The Median
- In a distribution, median is the value of the variable which divides it in to two
equal halves.
- In an ordered series of data median is an observation lying exactly in the middle
of the series. It is the middle most value in the sense that the number of
values less than the median is equal to the number of values greater
than it.
-If X1, X2, …Xn be the observations, then the numbers arranged in ascending
order will be X[1], X[2], …X[n], where X[i] is ith smallest value.
X[1]< X[2]< …<X[n]
-Median is denoted by X̂ .
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Solutions:
a) First order the data: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Here n=6
~ 1
X (X n X n )
2 [2] [ 1]
2
1
( X [3 ] X [ 4 ] )
2
1
(5 6) 5.5
2
b) Order the data :1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Here n=5
~
X X n1
[ ]
2
X [3 ]
3
Median for grouped data
Remark:
The median class is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency (less than
n
type) greater than or equal to .
2
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3
Solutions:
First find the less than cumulative frequency.
Identify the median class.
Find median using formula.
n 75
37.5
2 2
39 is the first cumulative frequency to be greater than or equal to 37.5
50 54 is the median class.
L 49.5, w 5
med
n 75, c 17, f 22
med
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~
XL w ( n c)
med f 2
med
49.5 5 (37.5 17)
22
54.16
Demerits:
It is not a good representative of data if the number of items is small.
It is not amenable to further algebraic treatment.
It is susceptible to sampling fluctuations.
Quantiles
Quartiles:
- Quartiles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to four
equal parts.
- The value of the variables corresponding to these divisions are denoted
Q1, Q2, and Q3 often called the first, the second and the third quartile
respectively.
- Q1 is a value which has 25% items which are less than or equal to it.
Similarly Q2 has 50%items with value less than or equal to it and Q3 has
75% items whose values are less than or equal to it.
iN
- To find Qi (i=1, 2, 3) we count of the classes beginning from the
4
lowest class.
- For grouped data: we have the following formula
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Q L Q w ( iN c) ,i 1,2,3
i i fQ 4
i
Where :
L Q lower class boundary of the quartile class.
i
w the size of the quartile class
N total number of observations.
c the cumulative frequency(less than type) preceeding the quartile class.
f Q thefrequency of the quartile class.
i
Remark:
The quartile class (class containing Qi ) is the class with the smallest
iN
cumulative frequency (less than type) greater than or equal to .
4
Deciles:
- Deciles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to ten equal
parts.
- The values of the variables corresponding to these divisions are denoted
D1, D2,.. D9 often called the first, the second,…, the ninth decile
respectively.
iN
- To find Di (i=1, 2,..9) we count of the classes beginning from the
10
lowest class.
- For grouped data: we have the following formula
w iN
Di LDi ( c ) , i 1,2,...,9
f Di 10
Where :
L Di lower class boundary of the decile class.
w the size of the decileclass
N total number of observations.
c the cumulative frequency ( less than type) preceeding the decile class.
f D i thefrequency of the decile class.
Remark:
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The decile class (class containing Di )is the class with the smallest cumulative
iN
frequency (less than type) greater than or equal to .
10
Percentiles:
- Percentiles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to
hundred equal parts.
- The values of the variables corresponding to these divisions are denoted
P1, P2,.. P99 often called the first, the second,…, the ninety-ninth
percentile respectively.
iN
- To find Pi (i=1, 2,..99) we count of the classes beginning from the
100
lowest class.
Remark:
The percentile class (class containing Pi )is the class with the smallest
iN
cumulative frequency (less than type) greater than or equal to .
100
Example: Considering the following distribution
Calculate:
a) All quartiles.
b) The 7th decile.
c) The 90th percentile.
Values Frequency
140- 150 17
150- 160 29
160- 170 42
170- 180 72
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180- 190 84
190- 200 107
200- 210 49
210- 220 34
220- 230 31
230- 240 16
240- 250 12
Solutions:
First find the less than cumulative frequency.
Use the formula to calculate the required quantile.
Values Frequency Cum.Freq(less than
type)
140- 150 17 17
150- 160 29 46
160- 170 42 88
170- 180 72 160
180- 190 84 244
190- 200 107 351
200- 210 49 400
210- 220 34 434
220- 230 31 465
230- 240 16 481
240- 250 12 493
a) Quartiles:
i. Q1
- determine the class containing the first quartile.
N
123.25
4
170 180 is the class containing the first quartile.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
LQ 170 ,
1
w 10
N 493 , c 88 , f Q 72
1
w N
Q1 LQ1 ( c)
fQ 4
1
10
170 (123.25 88)
72
174.90
ii. Q2
- determine the class containing the second quartile.
2* N
246.5
4
190 200 is the class containing the sec ond quartile.
LQ 190 ,
2
w 10
N 493 , c 244 , f Q 107
2
w 2* N
Q2 LQ ( c)
2
fQ
2
4
10
170 (246.5 244)
72
190.23
iii. Q3
- determine the class containing the third quartile.
3* N
369.75
4
200 210 is the class containing the third quartile.
LQ 200 ,
3
w 10
N 493 , c 351 , f Q 49
3
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
w 3* N
Q 3 LQ 3 ( c)
fQ 4
3
10
200 ( 369 . 75 351 )
49
203 . 83
b) D7
- determine the class containing the 7th decile.
7*N
345 . 1
10
190 200 is the class containing the seventh decile .
LD 190 ,
7
w 10
N 493 , c 244 , f D 107
7
w 7* N
D7 L D ( c)
7
fD
7
10
10
190 (345 .1 244 )
107
199 .45
c) P90
- determine the class containing the 90th percentile.
90 * N
443 .7
100
220 230 is the class containing the 90 th percentile .
L P 220 ,
90
w 10
N 493 , c 434 , f P 3107
90
w 90 * N
P90 LP ( c)
90
fP
90
100
10
220 ( 443 .7 434 )
31
223 .13
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
CHAPTER 4
4. Measures of Dispersion (Variation)
The measures of dispersion which are expressed in terms of the original unit
of a series are termed as absolute measures. Such measures are not suitable
for comparing the variability of two distributions which are expressed in
different units of measurement and different average size. Relative measures
of dispersions are a ratio or percentage of a measure of absolute dispersion
to an appropriate measure of central tendency and are thus pure numbers
independent of the units of measurement. For comparing the variability of
two distributions (even if they are measured in the same unit), we compute
the relative measure of dispersion instead of absolute measures of
dispersion.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
The range is the largest score minus the smallest score. It is a quick and dirty
measure of variability, although when a test is given back to students they
very often wish to know the range of scores. Because the range is greatly
affected by extreme scores, it may give a distorted picture of the scores. The
following two distributions have the same range, 13, yet appear to differ
greatly in the amount of variability.
Distribution 1: 32 35 36 36 37 38 40 42 42 43 43 45
Distribution 2: 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 35 45
For this reason, among others, the range is not the most important measure
of variability.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Merits:
It is rigidly defined.
It is easy to calculate and simple to understand.
Demerits:
It is not based on all observation.
It is highly affected by extreme observations.
It is affected by fluctuation in sampling.
It is not liable to further algebraic treatment.
It cannot be computed in the case of open end distribution.
It is very sensitive to the size of the sample.
Relative Range (RR)
-it is also sometimes called coefficient of range and given by:
LS R
RR
LS LS
Example:
1. Find the relative range of the above two distribution.(exercise!)
2. If the range and relative range of a series are 4 and 0.25 respectively. Then
what is the value of:
a) Smallest observation
b) Largest observation
Solutions :( 2)
R 4 L S 4 _________________(1)
RR 0.25 L S 16 _____________(2)
Solving (1) and (2) at the same time , one can obtain the following value
L 10 and S 6
The inter quartile range is the difference between the third and the first
quartiles of a set of items and semi-inter quartile range is half of the inter
quartile range.
Q3 Q1
Q.D
2
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
(Q3 Q1 2 2 * Q.D Q3 Q1
C. Q.D
(Q3 Q1 ) 2 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
It gives the average amount by which the two quartiles differ from the
median.
Example: Compute Q.D and its coefficient for the following distribution.
Values Frequency
140- 150 17
150- 160 29
160- 170 42
170- 180 72
180- 190 84
190- 200 107
200- 210 49
210- 220 34
220- 230 31
230- 240 16
240- 250 12
Solutions:
In the previous chapter we have obtained the values of all quartiles as:
Q1= 174.90, Q2= 190.23, Q3=203.83
Q3 Q1 203.83 174.90
Q.D 14.47
2 2
2 * Q.D 2 *14.47
C.Q.D 0.076
Q3 Q1 203.83 174.90
Remark: Q.D or C.Q.D includes only the middle 50% of the observation.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
The mean deviation of a set of items is defined as the arithmetic mean of the
values of the absolute deviations from a given average. Depending up on the
type of averages used we have different mean deviations.
a) Mean Deviation about the mean
Denoted by M.D( X ) and given by
n
Xi X
i 1
M .D ( X )
n
For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:
k
fi X i X
i 1
M .D ( X )
n
n ~
~
Xi X
i 1
M .D ( X )
n
For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:
Page 52 of 141
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
k ~
~
fi X i X
i 1
M .D ( X )
n
~
Steps to calculate M.D ( X ):
~
1. Find the median, X
~
2. Find the deviations of each reading from X .
3. Find the arithmetic mean of the deviations, ignoring sign.
X i Xˆ
M .D ( Xˆ ) i1
n
k
f i X i Xˆ
M . D ( Xˆ ) i 1
n
Examples:
1. The following are the number of visit made by ten mothers to the local
doctor’s surgery. 8, 6, 5, 5, 7, 4, 5, 9, 7, 4
Find mean deviation about mean, median and mode.
Solutions:
First calculate the three averages
~
X 6, X 5.5, Xˆ 5
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
X i 5.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 14
Xi 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 14
10
X i 6) 14
i 1
M .D ( X ) 1 .4
10 10
10
~
X i 5 .5 14
i 1
M .D ( X ) 1 .4
10 10
10
X i 5) 14
M . D ( Xˆ ) i 1
1 .4
10 10
2. Find mean deviation about mean, median and mode for the following
distributions.(exercise)
Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3
Page 54 of 141
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
M .D
C.M .D
Average about which deviations are taken
M .D( X )
C.M .D( X )
X
~
~ M .D( X )
C.M .D( X ) ~
X
ˆ M .D( Xˆ )
C.M .D( X )
Xˆ
Example: calculate the C.M.D about the mean, median and mode for the
data in example 1 above.
Solutions:
M .D
C.M .D
Average about which deviations are taken
M .D( X ) 1.4
C.M .D( X ) 0.233
X 6
~
~ M .D( X ) 1.4
C.M .D( X ) ~ 0.255
X 5.5
M .D( Xˆ ) 1.4
C.M .D( Xˆ ) 0.28
Xˆ 5
Exercise: Identify the merits and demerits of Mean Deviation
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
The Variance
Population Variance
If we divide the variation by the number of values in the population, we
get something called the population variance. This variance is the "average
squared deviation from the mean".
1
Population Varince 2 2
( X i ) , i 1,2,.....N
N
For the case of frequency distribution it is expressed as:
1
Population Varince 2 2
f i ( X i ) , i 1,2,.....k
N
Sample Variance
One would expect the sample variance to simply be the population variance
with the population mean replaced by the sample mean. However, one of the
major uses of statistics is to estimate the corresponding parameter. This
formula has the problem that the estimated value isn't the same as the
parameter. To counteract this, the sum of the squares of the deviations is
divided by one less than the sample size.
1
Sample Varince S 2 2
( X i X ) , i 1,2,....., n
n 1
For the case of frequency distribution it is expressed as:
1
Sample Varince S 2 2
f i ( X i X ) , i 1,2,.....k
n 1
We usually use the following short cut formula.
n
2
X i nX 2
S 2 i 1 , for raw data.
n 1
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
k
2 2
f i X i nX
S 2 i 1 , for frequency distribution.
n 1
Standard Deviation
There is a problem with variances. Recall that the deviations were squared.
That means that the units were also squared. To get the units back the same
as the original data values, the square root must be taken.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solutions:
1. X 11
Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3
Xi 5 10 12 17 Total
(Xi- X ) 2 36 1 1 36 74
n
( X i X )2 74
S 2 i 1 24.67.
n 1 3
S S 2 24.67 4.97.
2. X 55
Xi(C.M) 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 Total
fi(Xi- X ) 2 1183 640 198 60 588 864 867 4400
n
fi ( X i X ) 2 4400
S 2 i 1 59.46.
n 1 74
S S 2 59.46 7.71.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
2 2
1.
(Xi X ) ( X i A) ,A X
n 1 n 1
2. For normal (symmetric distribution the following holds.
3. Chebyshev's Theorem
For any data set ,no matter what the pattern of variation, the proportion
of the values that fall with in k standard deviations of the mean or
1
( X kS , X kS ) will be at least 1 , where k is an number greater
k2
than 1. i.e. the proportion of items falling beyond k standard deviations of
1
the mean is at most
k2
Example: Suppose a distribution has mean 50 and standard deviation
6.What percent of the numbers are:
a) Between 38 and 62
b) Between 32 and 68
c) Less than 38 or more than 62.
d) Less than 32 or more than 68.
Solutions:
a) 38 and 62 are at equal distance from the mean,50 and this distance is 12
ks 12
12 12
k 2
S 6
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
1
Applying the above theorem at least (1 ) *100% 75% of the numbers lie
k2
between 38 and 62.
b) Similarly done.
1
c) It is just the complement of a) i.e. at most *100% 25% of the
k2
numbers lie less than 32 or more than 62.
d) Similarly done.
Example 2:
The average score of a special test of knowledge of wood refinishing has
a mean of 53 and standard deviation of 6. Find the range of values in which
at least 75% the scores will lie. (Exercise)
Examples:
1. The mean and standard deviation of n Tetracycline Capsules
X 1 , X 2 , ..... X n are known to be 12 gm and 3 gm respectively. New set
of capsules of another drug are obtained by the linear transformation Yi =
2Xi – 0.5 ( i = 1, 2, …, n ) then what will be the standard deviation of the
new set of capsules
2. The mean and the standard deviation of a set of numbers are respectively
500 and 10.
a. If 10 is added to each of the numbers in the set, then
what will be the variance and standard deviation of
the new set?
b. If each of the numbers in the set are multiplied by -5,
then what will be the variance and standard deviation
of the new set?
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solutions:
1. Using c) above the new standard deviation = k S 2 * 3 6
2. a. They will remain the same.
b. New standard deviation= k S 5 *10 50
Solutions:
Calculate coefficient of variation for both firms.
SA 10
C.VA *100 *100 19.05%
XA 52.5
S 11
C.VB B *100 *100 23.16%
XB 47.5
Since C.VA < C.VB, in firm B there is greater variability in individual wages.
2. A meteorologist interested in the consistency of temperatures in three cities
during a given week collected the following data. The temperatures for the five
days of the week in the three cities were
City 1 25 24 23 26 17
City2 22 21 24 22 20
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
City3 32 27 35 24 28
Which city have the most consistent temperature, based on these data?
(Exercise)
X
Z , for population.
X X
Z , for sample
S
Z gives the deviations from the mean in units of standard deviation
Z gives the number of standard deviation a particular observation
lie above or below the mean.
It is used to compare two observations coming from different
groups.
Examples:
1. Two sections were given introduction to statistics examinations. The
following information was given.
Solutions:
Calculate the standard score of both students.
X A X 1 90 78
ZA 2
S1 6
X B X 2 95 90
ZB 1
S2 5
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solutions:
a) Use coefficient of variation.
S1 1.2
C.V1 *100 *100 11.54%
X1 10.4
S 1.3
C.V2 2 *100 *100 10.92%
X2 11.9
Since C.V2 < C.V1, group 2 is more consistent.
b) Calculate the standard score of A and B
X A X 1 9.2 10.4
ZA 1
S1 1.2
X B X 2 9.3 11.9
ZB 2
S2 1.3
Child B is faster because the time taken by child B is two standard
deviation shorter than the average time taken by group 2 while, the time
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
taken by child A is only one standard deviation shorter than the average time
taken by group 1.
Moments
- If X is a variable that assume the values X1, X2,…..,Xn then
1. The rth moment is defined as:
r r r
rX X 2 ... X n
X 1
n
n
r
Xi
i 1
n
- For the case of frequency distribution this is expressed as:
k
r
fi X i
X r i 1
n
- If r 1 ,it is the simple arithmetic mean, this is called the first moment.
2. The rth moment about the mean ( the rth central moment)
k
fi ( X i X ) r
M r i 1
n
- If r 2 , it is population variance, this is called the second central moment.
If we assume n 1 n ,it is also the sample variance.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
'
- Denoted by M r and
n n
r r
( X i A) (n 1) i
( X i A)
'
M r i 1 1
n n n 1
- For the case of frequency distribution this is expressed as:
k
r
f i ( X i A)
'
M r i 1
n
Example:
1. Find the first two moments for the following set of numbers 2, 3, 7
2. Find the first three central moments of the numbers in problem 1
3. Find the third moment about the number 3 of the numbers in problem 1.
Solutions:
1. Use the rth moment formula.
n
r
Xi
X r i 1
n
23 7
X1 4 X
3
2 2 2 32 7 2
X 20.67
3
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
n
r
(Xi X )
M r i 1
n
(2 4) (3 4) (7 4)
M1 0
3
(2 4) 2 (3 4) 2 (7 4) 2
M2 4.67
3
(2 4) (3 4) 3 (7 4) 3
3
M3 6
3
3. Use the rth moment about A.
n
r
( X i A)
M r i 1
n
' (2 3) 3 (3 3)3 (7 3)3
M3 21
3
Skewness
Measures of Skewness
- Denoted by 3
Page 66 of 141
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
M3 M3 M3
3 32
2 32
3
, Where is the population s tan dard deviation.
M2 ( )
The shape of the curve is determined by the value of 3
If 3 0 then the distribution is positively skewed .
If 3 0 then the distribution is symmetric.
If 3 0 then the distribution is negatively skewed .
Remark:
o In a positively skewed distribution, smaller observations
are more frequent than larger observations. i.e. the
majority of the observations have a value below an
average.
o In a negatively skewed distribution, smaller observations
are less frequent than larger observations. i.e. the majority
of the observations have a value above an average.
Examples:
1. Suppose the mean, the mode, and the standard deviation of a certain
distribution are 32, 30.5 and 10 respectively. What is the shape of the
curve representing the distribution?
Solutions:
Use the Pearsonian coefficient of skewness
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solutions: (exercise)
Page 68 of 141
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Kurtosis
Solutions:
M3 60
3 0.94 0
a) M2
32
16 3 2
The distribution is negatively skewed .
M 4 162
4 2
2 0.6 3
b) M2 16
The curve is platykurtic.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
CHAPTER 5
5. ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Introduction
Probability theory is the foundation upon which the logic of inference
is built.
It helps us to cope up with uncertainty.
In general, probability is the chance of an outcome of an experiment.
It is the measure of how likely an outcome is to occur.
Definitions of some probability terms
1. Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or any process which
generates well defined outcome.
2. Probability Experiment: It is an experiment that can be repeated any number
of times under similar conditions and it is possible to enumerate the total
number of outcomes without predicting an individual out come. It is also called
random experiment.
Example: If a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all the possible outcomes
i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible to predict which outcome will
occur.
3. Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment
4. Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
5. Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one or more
outcomes of a random experiment .They are denoted by capital letters.
Example: Considering the above experiment let A be the event of odd numbers,
B be the event of even numbers, and C be the event of number 8.
A 1,3,5
B 2,4,6
C or empty space or impossible event
Remark:
If S (sample space) has n members then there are exactly 2n subsets or
events.
6. Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of occurring.
7. Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means non-
' c
occurrence of A and is denoted by A , or A , or A contains those points of the
sample space which don’t belong to A.
8. Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or sample point.
9. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen at the same
time.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
10.Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does
not affect the probability of the other occurring.
11.Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.
To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device called tree
diagram is used.
Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a breakfast. He can take
tea, coffee, or milk with bread, cake and sandwich. How many possibilities does
he have?
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solutions:
Tea
Bread
Cake
Sandwich
Coeffee
Bread
Cake
Sandwitch
Milk
Bread
Cake
Sandwitch
If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1 ways, the
second can be made in n2 ways…, the kth can be made in nk ways, then the whole
choice can be made in (n1 * n2 * ........ * nk ) ways.
Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit identification card.
How many different cards are possible if
a) Repetitions are permitted.
b) Repetitions are not permitted.
Solutions
a)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 5 5 5
There are four steps
1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
b)
Permutation
n!
n Pr
k1!*k 2 * ... * k n
Example:
1. Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
b)
Here n 4, r 2
4! 24
There are 4 P2 12 permutations.
(4 2)! 2
2.
Here n 10
Of which 2 are C , 2 are O, 2 are R ,1E ,1T ,1I ,1N
K1 2, k2 2, k3 2, k 4 k5 k6 k7 1
U sin g the 3rd rule of permutation , there are
10!
453600 permutations.
2!*2!*2!*1!*1!*1!*1!
Exercises:
1. Six different statistics books, seven different physics books, and 3
different Economics books are arranged on a shelf. How many
different arrangements are possible if;
i. The books in each particular subject must all stand together
ii. Only the statistics books must stand together
2. If the permutation of the word WHITE is selected at random, how
many of the permutations
i. Begins with a consonant?
ii. Ends with a vowel?
iii. Has a consonant and vowels alternating?
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Combination
Solutions:
Permutation Combination
AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC
Combination Rule
n n!
r (n r )!*r!
Examples:
1. In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?
Solutions:
n9 , r 5
n n! 9!
126 ways
r
( n r )!*r! 4!* 5!
2. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives .In how many ways can an
inspector chose three of the clocks for inspection so that:
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
Solutions:
2 13
* 286 ways.
0 3
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
This is equivalent to one defective and two non defective, which can
be done in:
2 13
* 156 ways.
1 2
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
This is equivalent to two defective and one non defective, which can
be done in:
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
2 13
* 13 ways.
2 3
Exercises:
1. Out of 5 Mathematician and 7 Statistician a committee consisting
of 2 Mathematician and 3 Statistician is to be formed. In how
many ways this can be done if
a) There is no restriction
b) One particular Statistician should be included
c) Two particular Mathematicians cannot be included on the
committee.
2. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3
books of poems, and a dictionary, in how many ways this can be
done if
a) There is no restriction.
b) The dictionary is selected?
c) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Examples:
1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S
S 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
N n( S ) 6
a) Let A be the event of number 4
A 4
N A n( A) 1
n( A)
P( A) 1 6
n( S )
N A n( A) 0
n( A)
P( A) 0 60
n( S )
2. A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non defective
candles. If 10 of this candles are selected at random, what is the
probability
a) All will be defective.
b) 6 will be non defective
c) All will be non defective
Solutions:
80
Total selection N n( S )
10
a) Let A be the event that all will be defective.
30 50
Total way in which A occur * N A n( A)
10 0
30 50
*
n( A) 10 0
P ( A) 0.00001825
n( S ) 80
10
30 50
Total way in which A occur * N A n( A)
0 10
30 50
*
n( A) 0 10
P( A) 0.00624
n( S ) 80
10
Exercises:
1. What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve alcoholic
beverages to only three minors if she randomly checks the I.D’s of
five students from among ten students of which four are not of legal
age?
2. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3
books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability that
a) The dictionary is selected?
b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
Axiomatic Approach:
AUB AnB A
In general p ( A B) p ( A) p ( B ) p ( A B )
Example: Suppose we have two red and three white balls in a bag
1. Draw a ball with replacement
2
Let A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A)
5
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
2
B= the event that the second draw is red p ( B )
5
A and B are independent.
2. Draw a ball without replacement
2
Let A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A)
5
B= the event that the second draw is red p ( B) ?
This is conditional.
Let B= the event that the second draw is red given that the first draw is
red p ( B ) 1 4
Examples
1. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the
probability is 0.25 that he/she will get scholarship and 0.75 that he/she
will graduate. If the probability is 0.2 that he/she will get scholarship
and will also graduate. What is the probability that a student who get a
scholarship graduate?
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Note; for any two events A and B the following relation holds.
p B pB A. p A p B A' . p A'
Probability of Independent Events
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Example; A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the
probability of getting two black balls in drawing one after the other under
the following conditions?
a. The first ball drawn is not replaced
b. The first ball drawn is replaced
Solution; Let A= first drawn ball is black
B= second drawn is black
Required p A B
a. p A B pB A. p A 4 10 3 9 2 15
b. p A B p A. pB 4 10 4 10 4 25
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
CHAPTER 6
6. RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Definition: A random variable is a numerical description of the outcomes of the
experiment or a numerical valued function defined on sample space, usually
denoted by capital letters.
Example: If X is a random variable, then it is a function from the elements of the
sample space to the set of real numbers. i.e.
X is a function X: S --> R
Example: Flip a coin three times, let X be the number of heads in three
tosses.
Examples:
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
2. Continuous random variable: are variables that can assume all values
between any two give values.
Examples:
Example: Consider the experiment of tossing a coin three times. Let X be the
number of heads. Construct the probability distribution of X.
Solution:
X x 0 1 2 3
P X x 18 38 38 18
1.
P( x) 0, if X is discrete.
f ( x) 0, if X is continuous.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
2.
P X x 1 , if X is discrete.
x
f ( x)dx 1 , if is continuous.
x
Note:
P ( a X b ) P ( a X b) P ( a X b ) P ( a X b )
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Introduction to expectation
Definition:
1. Let a discrete random variable X assume the values X1, X2, ….,Xn with
the probabilities P(X1), P(X2), ….,P(Xn) respectively. Then the expected
value of X ,denoted as E(X) is defined as:
E ( X ) X 1 P( X 1 ) X 2 P ( X 2 ) .... X n P( X n )
n
X i P( X i )
i 1
b
E ( X ) x f ( x)dx
a
Examples:
Solution:
X x 0 1 2 3
P X x 18 38 38 18
E ( X ) X 1 P ( X 1 ) X 2 P( X 2 ) .... X n P ( X n )
0 *1 8 1 * 3 8 ..... 2 *1 8
1.5
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solution:
6
E ( X ) xi P( X xi ) $7.25
i 1
Mean of X E ( X )
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Where:
n
2
E ( X 2 ) xi P ( X xi ) , if X is discrete
i 1
x 2 f ( x)dx , if X is continuous.
x
Examples:
Solutions:
E ( X ) 7.25
Var ( X ) E ( X 2 ) [ E ( X )]2 82.15 7.252 29.59
2. Two dice are rolled. Let X be a random variable denoting the sum of the
numbers on the two dice.
i) Give the probability distribution of X
ii) Compute the expected value of X and its variance
Solution (exercise)
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
RULE 1
E (k ) k
RULE 2
Var ( k ) 0
RULE 3
E (kX ) kE ( X )
RULE 4
RULE 5
E ( X Y ) E ( X ) E (Y )
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
1. Binomial Distribution
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Examples:
1. What is the probability of getting three heads by tossing a fair con four
times?
Solution:
Let X be the number of heads in tossing a fair coin four times
X ~ Bin(n 4, p 0.50)
n
P ( X x) p x q n x , x 0,1,2,3,4
x
4
0.5 x 0.54 x
x
4
0.54
x
4
P ( X 3) 0.54 0.25
3
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solution
Let X = the number of correct answers that the student gets.
X ~ Bin(n 6, p 0.30)
a) P( X 3) ?
n
P( X x) p x q n x , x 0,1,2,..6
x
6
0.3 x 0.7 6 x
x
P( X 3) P ( X 4) P( X 5) P( X 6)
0.060 0.010 0.001
0.071
Thus, we may conclude that if 30% of the exam questions are answered
by guessing, the probability is 0.071 (or 7.1%) that more than four of the
questions are answered correctly by the student.
b) P( X 2) ?
P( X 2) P( X 2) P( X 3) P ( X 4) P ( X 5) P( X 6)
0.324 0.185 0.060 0.010 0.001
0.58
c) P( X 3) ?
P( X 3) P( X 0) P ( X 1) P ( X 2) P( X 3)
0.118 0.303 0.324 0.185
0.93
d) P( X 5) ?
P( X 5) 1 P( X 5)
1 {P ( X 5) P( X 6)}
1 (0.010 0.001)
0.989
Exercises:
1. Suppose that 4% of all TVs made by A&B Company in 2000
are defective. If eight of these TVs are randomly selected
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
E ( X ) np , Var ( X ) npq
2. Poisson Distribution
- A random variable X is said to have a Poisson distribution if its
probability distribution is given by:
x e
P( X x) , x 0,1,2,......
x!
Where the average number.
Examples:
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
1.6 x e 1.6
X poisson1.6 p X x
x!
1.63 e 1.6
p X 3 0.1380
3!
2. On the average, five smokers pass a certain street corners every ten
minutes, what is the probability that during a given 10minutes the
number of smokers passing will be
a. 6 or fewer
b. 7 or more
c. Exactly 8……. (Exercise)
E( X ) , Var ( X )
Note:
(np ) x e ( np )
P( X x) , x 0,1,2,......
x!
Where np the average number.
Example:
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Solution:
1. Normal Distribution
A random variable X is said to have a normal distribution if its probability
density function is given by
1 x 2
1
f ( x) e 2 , x , , 0
2
Where E ( X ), 2 Variance( X )
and 2 are the Parameters of the Normal Distribution.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
5. Total area under the curve sums to 1, i.e., the area of the distribution on each
side of the mean is 0.5. f ( x)dx 1
6. It is unimodal, i.e., values mound up only in the center of the curve.
7. Mean Median mod e
8. The probability that a random variable will have a value between any two
points is equal to the area under the curve between those points.
Note: To facilitate the use of normal distribution, the following distribution known
as the standard normal distribution was derived by using the transformation
X
Z
1
1 2z 2
f ( z) e
2
Mean is zero
Variance is one
Standard Deviation is one
- Areas under the standard normal distribution curve have been tabulated in
various ways. The most common ones are the areas between
Z 0 and a positive value of Z .
- Given a normal distributed random variable X with
a X b
P ( a X b) P ( )
a b
P ( a X b) P ( Z )
Note:
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
P ( a X b) P ( a X b)
P ( a X b)
P ( a X b)
Examples:
1. Find the area under the standard normal distribution which lies
a) Between Z 0 and Z 0.96
Solution:
Solution:
Area P (1.45 Z 0)
P(0 Z 1.45)
0.4265
Solution:
Area P( Z 0.35)
P(0.35 Z 0) P( Z 0)
P(0 Z 0.35) P( Z 0)
0.1368 0.50 0.6368
Solution:
Area P( Z 0.35)
1 P( Z 0.35)
1 0.6368 0.3632
Solution:
Solution:
Solution
Solution
P( Z z ) 0.9868
P ( Z 0) P ( 0 Z z )
0.50 P(0 Z z )
P(0 Z z ) 0.9868 0.50 0.4868
and from table
P(0 Z 2.2) 0.4868
z 2.2
Solution
a)
X 87.2
P( X 87.2) P ( )
87.2 80
P( Z )
4.8
P( Z 1.5)
P( Z 0) P(0 Z 1.5)
0.50 0.4332 0.9332
b)
X 76.4
P( X 76.4) P ( )
76.4 80
P( Z )
4.8
P( Z 0.75)
P( Z 0) P(0 Z 0.75)
0.50 0.2734 0.7734
c)
81.2 X 86.0
P(81.2 X 86.0) P( )
81.2 80 86.0 80
P( Z )
4.8 4.8
P(0.25 Z 1.25)
P (0 Z 1.25) P(0 Z 1.25)
0.3934 0.0987 0.2957
Solution
X 72.9
P( X 72.9) 0.2005 P( ) 0.2005
72.9 62.4
P(Z ) 0.2005
10.5
P(Z ) 0.2005
10.5
P (0 Z ) 0.50 0.2005 0.2995
And from table P(0 Z 0.84) 0.2995
10.5
0.84
12.5
Solution
52.5
P( Z z ) P( Z ) 0.6915
5
P (0 Z z ) 0.6915 0.50 0.1915.
But from the table
P (0 Z 0.5) 0.1915
52.5
z 0.5
5
50
6. Of a large group of men, 5% are less than 60 inches in height and 40%
are between 60 & 65 inches. Assuming a normal distribution, find the
mean and standard deviation of heights.
Solution (Exercise)
CHAPTER 7
7. Sampling and Sampling Distribution
Introduction
Given a variable X, if we arrange its values in ascending order and assign
probability to each of the values or if we present Xi in a form of relative
frequency distribution the result is called Sampling Distribution of X.
Definitions:
1. Parameter: Characteristic or measure obtained from a population.
2. Statistic: Characteristic or measure obtained from a sample.
3. Sampling: The process or method of sample selection from the
population.
4. Sampling unit: the ultimate unit to be sampled or elements of the
population to be sampled.
Examples:
- If somebody studies Scio-economic status of the households,
households are the sampling unit.
- If one studies performance of freshman students in some college,
the student is the sampling unit.
5. Sampling frame: is the list of all elements in a population.
Examples:
- List of households.
- List of students in the registrar office.
6. Errors in sample survey:
There are two types of errors
a) Sampling error:
- Is the discrepancy between the population value and sample
value.
- May arise due to in appropriate sampling techniques applied
b) Non sampling errors: are errors due to procedure bias such as:
- Due to incorrect responses
- Measurement
- Errors at different stages in processing the data.
The Need for Sampling
- Reduced cost
- Greater speed
- Greater accuracy
- Greater scope
- More detailed information can be obtained.
3. Quota Sampling
Note:
let N population size, n sample size.
1. Suppose simple random sampling is used
n
We have N possible samples if sampling is with
replacement.
N
We have possible samples if sampling is without
n
replacement.
2. After this on wards we consider that samples are drawn from a
given population using simple random sampling.
Example:
Suppose we have a population of size N 5 , consisting of the age of
five children: 6, 8, 10, 12, and 14
Population mean 10
population Variance 2 8
Take samples of size 2 with replacement and construct sampling
distribution of the sample mean.
Solution:
N 5, n 2
n 2
We have N 5 25 possible samples since sampling is with
replacement.
Step 1: Draw all possible samples:
6 8 10 12 14
6 (6, 6) (6, 8) (6, 10) (6, 12) (6, 14)
8 (8,6) (8,8) (8,10) (8,12) (8,14)
10 (10,6) (10,8) (10,10) (10,12) (10,14)
12 (12,6) (12,8) (12,10) (12,12) (12,14)
14 (12,6) (14,8) (12,10) (12,12) (12,14)
Step 2: Calculate the mean for each sample:
6 8 10 12 14
6 6 7 8 9 10
8 7 8 9 10 11
10 8 9 10 11 12
12 9 10 11 12 13
14 10 11 12 13 14
2
X ~ N ( , )
n
X
Z ~ N (0,1)
n
Central Limit Theorem
Given a population of any functional form with mean and finite
2
variance , the sampling distribution of X , computed from samples of size n
from the population will be approximately normally distributed with mean and
2
variance , when the sample size is large.
n
CHAPTER 8
Inference Analyzed
Population
Data
Numerical
Sample
data
Statistical Estimation
This is one way of making inference about the population parameter where
the investigator does not have any prior notion about values or
characteristics of the population parameter.
There are two ways estimation.
1) Point Estimation
It is a procedure that results in a single value as an estimate for a
parameter.
2) Interval estimation
It is the procedure that results in the interval of values as an estimate for a
parameter, which is interval that contains the likely values of a
parameter. It deals with identifying the upper and lower limits of a
parameter. The limits by themselves are random variable.
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Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 173) Chapter 2 METHODS OF DATA PRESNTATION
Definitions
Confidence Interval: An interval estimate with a specific level of
confidence
Confidence Level: The percent of the time the true value will lie in the
interval estimate given.
Consistent Estimator: An estimator which gets closer to the value of the
parameter as the sample size increases.
Degrees of Freedom: The number of data values which are allowed to
vary once a statistic has been determined.
Estimator: A sample statistic which is used to estimate a population
parameter. It must be unbiased, consistent, and relatively efficient.
Estimate: Is the different possible values which an estimator can
assumes.
Interval Estimate: A range of values used to estimate a parameter.
Point Estimate: A single value used to estimate a parameter.
Relatively Efficient Estimator: The estimator for a parameter with the
smallest variance.
Unbiased Estimator: An estimator whose expected value is the value of
the parameter being estimated.
We can phrase the latter question differently: How confident can we be that
the value of the statistic falls within a certain "distance" of the parameter?
Or, what is the probability that the parameter's value is within a certain range
of the statistic's value? This range is the confidence interval.
The confidence level is the probability that the value of the parameter falls
within the range specified by the confidence interval surrounding the
statistic.
Case 1:
Recall the Central Limit Theorem, which applies to the sampling distribution
of the mean of a sample. Consider samples of size n drawn from a
population, whose mean is and standard deviation is with replacement
and order important. The population can have any frequency distribution.
The sampling distribution of X will have a mean x and a standard
deviation x , and approaches a normal distribution as n gets large.
n
This allows us to use the normal distribution curve for computing confidence
intervals.
X
Z has a normal distribution with mean 0 and var iance 1
n
X Z n
X , where is a measure of error.
Z n
- For the interval estimator to be good the error should be small. How it be
small?
By making n large
Small variability
Taking Z small
- To obtain the value of Z, we have to attach this to a theory of chance. That is,
there is an area of size 1 such
P ( Z 2 Z Z 2 ) 1
Where is the probability that the parameter lies outside the int erval
Z 2 s tan ds for the s tan dard normal var iable to the right of which
2 probability lies, i.e P( Z Z 2 ) 2
X
P( Z 2 Z 2 ) 1
n
P( X Z 2 n X Z 2 n) 1
2
But usually is not known, in that case we estimate by its point estimator S2
Here are the z values corresponding to the most commonly used confidence
levels.
100(1 ) % 2 Z 2
90 0.10 0.05 1.645
95 0.05 0.025 1.96
99 0.01 0.005 2.58
Case 2:
2
If sample size is small and the population variance, is not known.
X
t has t distribution with n 1 deg rees of freedom.
S n
Examples:
1. From a normal sample of size 25 a mean of 32 was found .Given that the
population standard deviation is 4.2. Find
a) A 95% confidence interval for the population mean.
b) A 99% confidence interval for the population mean.
Solution:
a)
X 32, 4.2, 1 0.95 0.05, 2 0.025
Z 2 1.96 from table.
The required int erval will be X Z 2 n
32 1.96 * 4.2 25
32 1.65
(30.35, 33.65)
b)
deviation of .95 points. What is the 95% confidence interval for the mean
change in pressure?
Solution:
Hypothesis Testing
In practice we set at some value and design a test that minimize . This is
because a type I error is often considered to be more serious, and therefore
more important to avoid, than a type II error.
General steps in hypothesis testing:
1. The first step in hypothesis testing is to specify the null hypothesis (H0)
and the alternative hypothesis (H1).
2. The next step is to select a significance level,
3. Identify the sampling distribution of the estimator.
4. The fourth step is to calculate a statistic analogous to the parameter
specified by the null hypothesis.
5. Identify the critical region.
6. Making decision.
7. Summarization of the result.
1. H 0 : 0 vs H1 : 0
2. H 0 : 0 vs H1 : 0
3. H 0 : 0 vs H1 : 0
CASES:
2
Case 1: When sampling is from a normal distribution with known
- The relevant test statistic is
X
Z
n
- After specifying we have the following regions (critical and
acceptance) on the standard normal distribution corresponding to the
above three hypothesis.
Summary table for decision rule:
H0 Reject H0 if Accept H0 if Inconclusive if
0 Z cal Z 2 Z cal Z 2 Z cal Z 2 or Z cal Z 2
2
Case 2: When sampling is from a normal distribution with unknown and
small sample size
X
t ~ t with n 1 deg rees of freedom.
S n
X 0
Where: t cal
S n
Case3: When sampling is from a non- normally distributed population or
a population whose functional form is unknown.
- If a sample size is large one can perform a test hypothesis about the mean
by using:
X 0
Z cal , if 2 is known.
n
X 0
, if 2 is unknown.
S n
Solution:
Let Population mean. , 0 10
Step 1: Identify the appropriate hypothesis
H 0 : 10 vsH1 : 10
Step 2: select the level of significance, 0.01 ( given)
Step 3: Select an appropriate test statistics
t- Statistic is appropriate because population variance is not known and
the sample size is also small.
Step 4: identify the critical region.
Here we have two critical regions since we have two tailed hypothesis
The critical region is tcal t0.005 (9) 3.2498
(3.2498, 3.2498) is accep tan ce region.
Step 5: Computations:
X 10.06, S 0.25
X 0 10.06 10
t cal 0.76
S n 0.25 10
Step 6: Decision
Accept H0 , since tcal is in the acceptance region.
Step 7: Conclusion
At 1% level of significance, we have no evidence to say that the average height
content of containers of the given lubricant is different from 10 litters, based on the
given sample data.
B
A B1 B2 . . Bj . Bc Total
A1 O11 O12 O1j O1c R1
A2 O21 O22 O2j O2c R2
.
.
Ai Oi1 Oi2 Oij Oic Ri
.
.
Ar Or1 Or2 Orj Orc
Total C1 C2 Cj n
- The chi-square procedure test is used to test the hypothesis of
independency of two attributes .For instance we may be interested
Whether the presence or absence of hypertension is
independent of smoking habit or not.
Whether the size of the family is independent of the level
of education attained by the mothers.
Whether there is association between father and son
regarding boldness.
Whether there is association between stability of marriage
and period of acquaintance ship prior to marriage.
Remark:
r c r c
n Oij eij
i 1 j 1 i 1 j 1
- The null and alternative hypothesis may be stated as:
H 0 : There is no association between A and B.
H1 : not H 0 ( There is association between A and B ).
Decision Rule:
Son
Father Bold Not
Bold 85 59
Not 65 91
Using 5% test whether there is association between father and son
regarding boldness.
Solution:
H 0 : There is no association between Father and Son regarding boldness.
H1 : not H 0
R2 * C1 156 *150
e21 78
n 300
R * C2 156 *150
e22 2 78
n 300
- Obtain the calculated value of the chi-square.
2
2 2 (Oij eij ) 2
cal
i 1 j 1
eij
(85 72) 2 (59 72) 2 (65 78) 2 (91 78) 2
9.028
72 72 78 78
Solution:
H 0 : There is no association between the size of the family and the level of
education attained by fathers.
H1 : not H 0 .
CHAPTER 9
Simple Correlation
Examples:
- Income and expenditure
- Number of hours spent in studying and the score obtained
- Height and weight
- Distance covered and fuel consumed by car.
Examples:
- Demand and supply
1. One variable being the cause of the other. The cause is called
“subject” or “independent” variable, while the effect is called
“dependent” variable.
2. Both variables being the result of a common cause. That is, the
correlation that exists between two variables is due to their being
related to some third force.
Example:
Let X1= be ESLCE result
Y1=be rate of surviving in the University
Y2=be the rate of getting a scholar ship.
3. Chance:
Examples:
Price of teff in Addis Ababa and grade of students in USA.
Weight of individuals in Ethiopia and income of individuals
in Kenya.
r
( X i X )(Yi Y ) and the short cut formula is
2 2
( X i X ) (Yi Y )
n XY ( X )( Y )
r
[ n X 2 ( X ) 2 ] [ n Y 2 ( Y ) 2
r
XY nXY
[ X 2 nX 2 ] [ Y 2 n Y 2 ]
Remark:
Interpretation of r
1. Perfect positive linear relationship ( if r 1)
2. Some Positive linear relationship ( if r is between 0 and 1)
3. No linear relationship ( if r 0)
4. Some Negative linear relationship ( if r is between -1 and 0)
5. Perfect negative linear relationship ( if r 1)
Examples:
1. Calculate the simple correlation between mid semester and final exam
scores of 10 students (both out of 50)
Solution:
n 10, X 31.2, Y 32.9, X 2 973.4, Y 2 1082.4
2 2
XY 10331, X 9920, Y 11003
r
XY nXY
[ X 2 2
nX ] [ Y 2
nY 2 ]
10331 10(31.2)(32.9)
(9920 10(973.4)) (11003 10(1082.4))
66.2
182.5
r 0.363
This means mid semester exam and final exam scores have a slightly
positive correlation.
X: 650 654 720 456 536 853 735 650 536 666
Y: 450 523 235 398 500 632 500 635 450 360
The above formula and procedure is only applicable on quantitative data, but
when we have qualitative data like efficiency, honesty, intelligence, etc
We calculate what is called Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient as
follows:
Steps
i. Rank the different items in X and Y.
ii. Find the difference of the ranks in a pair , denote them by Di
iii. Use the following formula
2
6 Di
rs 1
n(n 2 1)
Where rs coefficient of rank correlation
D the difference between paired ranks
n the number of pairs
Example:
Aster and Almaz were asked to rank 7 different types of lipsticks, see if
there is correlation between the tests of the ladies.
Lipsticks A B C D E F G
Aster 2 1 4 3 5 7 6
Almaz 1 3 2 4 5 6 7
Solution:
X Y R1-R2 D2
(R1) (R2) (D)
2 1 1 1
1 3 -2 4
4 2 2 4
3 4 -1 1
5 5 0 0
7 6 1 1
6 7 -1 1
Total 12
2
6 Di 6(12)
rs 1 1 0.786
n(n 2 1) 7(48)
- Simple linear regression refers to the linear relation ship between two
variables
- We usually denote the dependent variable by Y and the independent
variable by X.
- A simple regression line is the line fitted to the points plotted in the
scatter diagram, which would describe the average relation ship between
the two variables. Therefore, to see the type of relation ship, it is
advisable to prepare scatter plot before fitting the model.
- The linear model is:
Y X
Where :Y Dependent var iable
X independent var iable
Re gression cons tan t
regression slope
random disturbance term
Y ~ N ( X , 2 )
~ N (0, 2 )
Yˆ a bX
Where a is a constant which gives the value of Y when X=0 .It is called
the Y-intercept. b is a constant indicating the slope of the regression line,
and it gives a measure of the change in Y for a unit change in X. It is also
regression coefficient of Y on X.
b
( X i X )(Yi Y ) XY nXY
2
(Xi X ) X 2 nX 2
a Y bX
Example 1: The following data shows the score of 12 students for Accounting
and Statistics Examinations.
Accounting Statistics
X Y
1 74.00 81.00
2 93.00 86.00
3 55.00 67.00
4 41.00 35.00
5 23.00 30.00
6 92.00 100.00
7 64.00 55.00
8 40.00 52.00
9 71.00 76.00
10 33.00 24.00
11 30.00 48.00
12 71.00 87.00
Accounting Statistics
X2 Y2 XY
X Y
1 74.00 81.00 5476.00 6561.00 5994.00
2 93.00 86.00 8649.00 7396.00 7998.00
3 55.00 67.00 3025.00 4489.00 3685.00
4 41.00 35.00 1681.00 1225.00 1435.00
5 23.00 30.00 529.00 900.00 690.00
6 92.00 100.00 8464.00 10000.00 9200.00
7 64.00 55.00 4096.00 3025.00 3520.00
8 40.00 52.00 1600.00 2704.00 2080.00
9 71.00 76.00 5041.00 5776.00 5396.00
10 33.00 24.00 1089.00 576.00 792.00
11 30.00 48.00 900.00 2304.00 1440.00
12 71.00 87.00 5041.00 7569.00 6177.00
Total 687.00 741.00 45591.00 52525.00 48407.00
Mean 57.25 61.75
a)
The Coefficient of Correlation (r) has a value of 0.92. This indicates that the
two variables are positively correlated (Y increases as X increases).
b)
Using OLS:
Yˆ 7.0194 0.9560 X
7.0194 0.9560(85) 88.28
Example 2:
5 2 5 2
X
i 1 i 147,000,000 i 1Yi 314
5 5 5
i 1 X i 23,000 , i 1Yi 36 , i 1 X i Yi 212, 000
c) Estimate the maintenance cost of a car which has been driven for 6 km
- To know how far the regression equation has been able to explain the
2
variation in Y we use a measure called coefficient of determination ( r )
2 (Yˆ Y ) 2
i.e r
(Y Y ) 2
Where r the simple correlation coefficient.
2
- r gives the proportion of the variation in Y explained by the regression of
Y on X.
2
- 1 r gives the unexplained proportion and is called coefficient of
indetermination.
SX Y
( X i X )(Yi Y ) XY nXY
n 1 n 1
o Next we will see the relation ship between the coefficients.
2
S S
i. r XY r 2 X2 Y 2
S X SY S X SY
bS rS
ii. r X b Y
SY SX
Xˆ a1 b1Y
b1
XY nXY
Y 2 nY 2
b1SY
a1 X b1Y , r
SX
bYX S X bXY SY
Then r r 2 bYX * bXY
SY SX
Example: The regression line between height (X) in inches and weight (Y)
in lbs of male students are:
4Y 15 X 530 0 and
20 X 3Y 975 0
Determine which is regression of Y on X and X on Y
Solution
We will assume one of the equation as regression of X on Y and the other
as Y on X and calculate r
15 3 9
r 2 bYX * bXY 0,1
4 20 16