Data analysis

Feyera Senbeta (PhD)

The Meaning of Statistics
Several Meanings

Collections of numerical data

Summary measures calculated from a

collection of data

Activity of using and interpreting a collection of

numerical data
A Meaningful Statistic (Significant)?

Statistics, descriptive or inferential are NOT a
substitute for good judgment
 Decide what level or value of a statistic is
meaningful
 State judgment before gathering and analyzing
data

Examples:
 Score on performance test of 80% is passing
 Pre/post rules instruction reduces incidents by
50%
Interpretation of Meaning

Population Measure (statistic)
 There is no sampling error
 The number you have is “real”
 Judge against pre-set standard

Inferential Measure (statistic)

 Tellsyou how sure (confident) you can be
the number you have is real
 Judge against pre-set standard and state
how certain the measure is
 Statistics

Descriptive Statistics

Gives numerical and
graphic procedures to Inferential Statistics
summarize a collection
Provides procedures
of data in a clear and to draw inferences
understandable way about a population
from a sample
 Descriptive and Inferential
Statistics

Descriptive statistics: Mathematical methods (such as
mean, median, standard deviation) that summarize and
interpret some of the properties of a set of data (sample)
but do not infer the properties of the population from
which the sample was drawn.

Mathematical methods (such as hypothesis

development) that employ probability theory for deducing
(inferring) the properties of a population from the
analysis of the properties of a set of data (sample) drawn
from it.

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Did it happen by chance?

How do you know if something caused or
correlates with something else?

The appropriate Statistic will tell you:
 If there is a difference from some expected value

 If the difference is statistically significant or merely

due to random chance

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Descriptive Statistics

Summarize or describe the

important characteristics of a
known set of population data

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Descriptive Statistics

Design Descriptive Statistics

Survey Studies Percentages, measures of
central tendency and variation

Causal comparative studies Measures of central tendency &

variation, percentages, standard
scores
Experimental Measures of central tendency &
variation, percentages, standard
scores, effect sizes
Types of descriptive statistics

Statistic is a quantitative index that describes
performance of a sample or samples

Parameter is a quantitative index describing the

performance of a population

Measures of central tendency are used to determine the

typical or average value among a group of values

Measures of variability indicate how spread out the

values are

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Descriptive Statistics (Vocabulary)

Central tendency

Mode

Median

Mean

Variation

Range

Standard deviation

Normal distribution

Standard score

Correlation

Regression
Descriptive Measures

Central Tendency measures. They are
computed to give a “center” around which the
measurements in the data are distributed.

Variation or Variability measures. They

describe “data spread” or how far away the
measurements are from the center.

Relative Standing measures. They describe

the relative position of specific measurements in the
data.
Measures of Central Tendency

Mean:
Sum of all measurements divided by the number
of measurements.

Median:
A number such that at most half of the
measurements are below it and at most half of the
measurements are above it.

Mode:
The most frequent measurement in the data.
Example of Mean

Measurements Deviation
x x - mean

MEAN = 40/10 = 4
3 -1
5 1
5 1
Notice that the sum of the
1 -3 “deviations” is 0.
7 3
2 -2
6 2
Notice that every single
7 3 observation intervenes in
0 -4
4 0
the computation of the
40 0
mean.
Example of Median
Measurements Measurements
Ranked

Median: (4+5)/2 =
x x 4.5
3 0
5 1
5 2

Notice that only the two
1 3
central values are used
7 4 in the computation.
2 5
6 5
7 6

The median is not
0 7 sensible to extreme
4 7 values
40 40
Example of Mode
Measurements

x
3
5
In this case the data have
5 tow modes:
1
7
5 and 7
2
Both measurements are
6
7 repeated twice
0
4
Example of Mode
Measurements
x
3
5

Mode: 3
1
1
4
7
Notice that it is possible for a
3 data not to have any mode.
8
3
Graphing data

Provides a quick view of the what your data is telling
you.

There are various types of graphs which are used in

statistics including bar graphs, histograms, scatter
plots, pie charts, frequency polygons etc.

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Example group of test scores

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Frequency Polygon and Pie Chart

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Common mistakes

Use of one dataset as graph & table

Use of one dataset as frequency and %
histogram

Which graph to use histogram, pie chart,
linear

The importance of making graph
Sample Bar Graph

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Sample Histogram

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Sample Scatter Plot

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Frequency Distributions
Frequency distributions are like frequency
polygons; however, instead of straight lines,
a frequency distribution uses a smooth
curve to connect the points and, similar to a
graph, is plotted on two axes.

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J Shaped Curve

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Bimodal Curve with Two Peaks

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Positively Skewed Bell Curve

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Negatively Skewed Bell Curve

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Symmetric Bell Curve/Normal
Distribution

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What is the Normal Distribution ?
•Where did it come from and why is it so special?

• It is just about anything you measure turns out

to be normally distributed, at least approximately
so.

•That is, usually most of the observations cluster

around the mean, with progressively fewer
observations out towards the extremes

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Sample Histogram

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Just about any histogram can be
converted into a line graph

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Which can be used to plot a
normal distribution

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But how do we get from the
normal to the standard normal?

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Measures of variability

Range – Difference between the highest and
lowest values (high value -low value = range)

Variance S2

Standard Deviation S
 variation of values about the mean

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Measures of variation – range

Range= highest value-lowest value

Bank waiting time values:

Values of 4, 7, 7 the range is 7-4 or 3

With values of 1, 3, 14, the range is 14-1 or 13

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Other key measures of variation

S2= Variance

S Standard Deviation

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Measures of variation –
standard deviation

x
6
6
6

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The Z statistic will allow you to
standardize a normal
distribution

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Inferential Statistics

To generalize or predict how a large
group will behave based upon
information taken from a part of the
group is called INFERENCE

Techniques which tell us how much
confidence we can have when we
GENERALIZE from a sample to a
population
Inferential Statistics (Vocabulary)

Hypothesis
 Null hypothesis
 Alternative hypothesis

ANOVA
 Level of significance

Type I error

Type II error
Collecting a random sample

Goal: to understand characteristics about a population

Examples:
 What’s the average household income of the 09 Kebele
resident?

 What proportion of people living in Dire Dawa Town have had

malaria?
Estimating the mean

One of the most common goals of statistical
inference is estimating a population mean
with a sample mean
Central Limit Theorem

When we have n independent, identically distributed
(X1..Xn) random variables, the mean of those random
variables approaches a normal distribution with mean =
µ and variance = 2 , as n gets large.
n

Independence of random variables means that the value

of one observation has no effect on the value of another
observation.

Identical distribution of random variables means that

each random variable comes from the same population
(e.g., roll of a die, coin flip).
Simple random sampling

Each observation drawn does not depend on others
drawn
 Thus observations are independent

Each observation (i.e., each random variable) is

identically distributed
 The population has a distribution that doesn’t change (each
observation is randomly drawn from an identical distribution –
the distribution of the population).

So the Central Limit Theorem applies!

(when n is large)
 What does this mean?
Suppose we take a sample of n=50
observations from a population that frequency
has this distribution:

0 10 20 30
Mean (µ) = 20
2
Variance ( ) = 100
Std. dev ( ) = 10

We then find the mean of this sample (suppose this mean = 19). Take
another sample of 50 observations and find the mean (suppose it’s 24).
Do this many times, and we’ll come up with a distribution of means. The
Central Limit Theorem tells us this distribution will always look like the
next slide (as long as n is “large”, and 50 is large enough):
 The normal curve

16 18 20 22 24
x
2
Mean (µ) = 20 Sample size (n) = 50 variance of sample mean = =2
n
Symbols

Population Parameter: µ

Estimate: ẋ

Expected: E
Basic Types of Inference

Point Inference
 The value of a population parameter µ is estimated using a
single value ẋ

Examples: mean, standard deviation, etc.

Interval Inference
 Attaching a probability to an estimate (i.e., making a
confidence interval)

 Example: we are 95% confident that µ is between 10 and 20

Judging the Quality of the
Estimator

ˆ )and
Bias – the difference between E (Θ Θ
(i.e., Bias = E (Θ
ˆ )−Θ
)

 Bias may be positive or negative (e.g., a

positively biased estimator would indicate the
population parameter is higher than it actually is)

Efficiency – how clustered the distribution of

is (i.e., how “peaked” is its distribution) Θ̂
Point Estimates (inferring population
parameters from samples)

Population Mean: µ=x

Population Proportions: π = P = X /n

Population Variance: σ 2 = s2

Population Standard Deviation: σ = s

Confidence Intervals

The degree of confidence we have in our estimates defined
by a percentage

Common examples: 90, 95, or 99% confident

The confidence interval is defined with the α symbol

In confidence intervals, alpha (α) is the proportion of time

your confidence interval is wrong

The typical usage is: zα / 2

Why do we divide by 2?
Confidence Interval Example

What is the 95% confidence interval for a normally distributed
variable?

α= 1 - desired confidence interval

α= 1 – 0.95 = 0.05

Remember that we divide α by 2 since we have uncertainty both

above and below the mean (i.e., 2 tails)

Therefore we use z0.025 for the 95% confidence interval

From the z-table we find that z0.025 = 1.96

What does this mean?

Interval Estimation (making confidence
intervals for population parameters estimated
from samples)

Case #1 estimating an interval for µ when X is
normally distributed and we know σ

This is the simplest case because normality

allows us to use the z-table

This is also unlikely since it requires knowing the

distribution and the σ (which implies knowing µ
already)
Example #1: Create a confidence
interval for µ

A town is considering building a new bridge over a
river. The primary goal is to reduce workers’
commute times from a particular community. A
random sample of workers in that community are
asked to estimate their reduction in commute time if
the bridge were built.

Our goal is to estimate the mean reduction in

commute time for the whole community if the bridge
were built. Create a 95% confidence interval for this
mean.
Example #1 Data

n = 100 workers are sampled

x = 17 minutes

σ = 30 minutes

What is the 95% confidence interval for
the mean?
Constructing a confidence interval

Construct a 95% confidence interval around the sample mean
σ σ
P( X − 1.96 ≤ µ ≤ X + 1.96 ) = 0.95
n n

30 30
P(17 − 1.96 ≤ µ ≤ 17 + 1.96 ) = 0.95
100 100

P(17 − 1.96 * 3 ≤ µ ≤ 17 + 1.96 * 3) = 0.95

P(17 − 5.88 ≤ µ ≤ 17 + 5.88) = 0.95

So we can say that the 95% C.I. is 17 +/- 5.88 or 11.12, 22.88
Example #1 Questions

What would happen to our interval if we
used a 99% confidence interval instead?

What would happen to our confidence

interval if we sampled 200 people instead
of 100 people?
Interval Estimation (making confidence
intervals for population parameters estimated
from samples)

Case #2 estimating an interval for µ when X is
not normally distributed and we know σ

In this case the n matters a lot, why?

This is also unlikely since it requires knowing the

distribution and the σ (which implies knowing µ
already)
Interval Estimation (making confidence
intervals for population parameters estimated
from samples)

Case #3 estimating an interval for µ when σ and
the distribution are unknown

What should we used instead of σ?

Can we use the z-table in this case?

This case is what we see most commonly

t-distribution vs. z-
distribution

When we only have s (and not σ) we use the t-
distribution rather than the z-distribution

To do so we use the t-table

How are they different?

 The t-distribution changes depending on the degrees of
freedom (n-1)

This is reflected in the table and in the symbol tα / 2,n −1
 The t-distribution accounts for more uncertainty (i.e., wider
confidence intervals) since s is just an estimate for σ
t-distribution vs. z-distribution

As n approaches infinity t and z become equal

This means that even when we have s instead of σ we can use the z-
distribution if n is large
 Central Limit Theorem: “…as n gets large.”
 What is “large”?
 Rule of thumb: 30

For n less than 30, the distribution of x does not follow the normal
distribution accurately enough.

But the distribution of x does closely follow a t-distribution for sample

sizes of less than 30.

For this class use the t-distribution any time you have s instead of σ
Example #2

n = 16

x = 30

s2 = 1600

What is the 95% C.I. for the mean?
Example #2

s = 40

Degrees of freedom = n – 1 = 15

tα / 2,n −1 = t0.05 / 2,16 −1 = t0.025,15 = 2.131(from the t-table)
s s
P ( X − 2.131 ≤ µ ≤ X + 2.131 ) = 0.95
n n

40 40
P (30 − 2.131 ≤ µ ≤ 30 + 2.131 ) = 0.95
16 16

P (30 − 2.131 *10 ≤ µ ≤ 30 + 2.131 *10) = 0.95

P (30 − 21.31 ≤ µ ≤ 30 + 21.31) = 0.95

The 95% confidence interval for the mean is (8.69, 51.31)

Interval Estimation (making confidence intervals
for population parameters estimated from
samples)

Case #4 estimating an interval for a proportion π
based on a sample proportion p

Remember that p = x/n

 In other word, p = the number of “successes” divided by
the number of samples
 For example: the proportion of people over 6ft tall

In this case we don’t need s or σ, but we do need

the standard deviation of p: π (1 − π )
σp =
n

Which we estimate as: p (1 − p )

sp =
n
Interval Estimation (making confidence intervals
for population parameters estimated from
samples)

Case #4 continued
p (1 − p) p(1 − p )

Equation: p − zα / 2 ≤ π ≤ p + zα / 2
n n

We use the z-distribution for estimating an interval for a
proportion π based on a sample proportion p

This also limits us to using only large samples (in this case n >
100)

For smaller samples, we calculate the entire distribution using

the binomial mass function: P ( x ) = C xnπ x (1 − π )(i.e.,
n− x
solve for
all x values)
Example #3

n = 150 people at a convention

63 people sampled were over 6 feet tall

What is the 99% C.I. for the true
proportion of all people ≥6 ft tall at the
convention?
Example #3

p = 63/150 = 0.42

99% C.I. -> z α /2 = z0.005 = 2.58 (from the z-table)

p(1 − p) p(1 − p)
p − zα / 2 ≤ π ≤ p + zα / 2
n n

0.42 * 0.58 0.42 * 0.58

0.42 − 2.58 ≤ π ≤ 0.42 + 2.58
150 150

0.42 − 2.58 * 0.04 ≤ π ≤ 0.42 + 2.58 * 0.04

0.42 − 0.104 ≤ π ≤ 0.42 + 0.104

The 99% confidence interval for p = 0.42 is (0.316, 0.524)