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Examining Relationship between Accident Occurrences and Road

Characteristics on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway in Myanmar

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DOI: 10.14456/built.2017.5

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 Examining Relationship between
Accident Occurrences and Road
Characteristics on Yangon -
Mandalay Expressway in Myanmar
Cho Thet Mon, Rattaphol Pueboobpaphan* and Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha
School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology,
Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand

Abstract

Traffic crashes on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway in Myanmar become a worse problem

resulting in many deaths, injuries, disabilities and damage to both private and public properties.
This expressway is the most important one in the country and it passes through Naypyitaw,
the capital city of Myanmar, as well as linking Yangon to the south and Mandalay to the north.
Although over speeding is the major cause of traffic crash on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway,
traffic crashes due to human behavior, road environment and road characteristic are also
investigable factors. The purpose of the study is to examine relationships between crash
frequency and road characteristics on that expressway. Negative binomial regression model
was performed to predict the numbers of crash based on road characteristics variables.
These variables include average daily traffic, road geometric variables, presence of bridge and
presence of village settlement along the expressway. The last three years traffic crash data
were used to develop the crash prediction model. The result shows that accident occurrenc-
es are found to be significantly related to average daily traffic, presence of bridge, presence
of village settlement, percent downgrade and combination of horizontal curve and slope.

* Corresponding author. Keywords: Traffic crashes, Road characteristics, Negative binomial regression, Yangon-
E-mail: [email protected] Mandalay Expressway

Mon, C. T., Pueboobpaphan, R. and Ratanavaraha, V. 43

 1. Introduction 1.1.1 Specifications of Yangon-Mandalay
Express way
1.1 Rationale and Background This is four lane divided expressway with
Road traffic accidents cause injuries, death 30 ft wide raised median between the
and losses of properties; it is one of the directions of traffic flow. A total length is
problems faced by modern societies of the 366 mile (589 km). Road surface comprises
world today. According to the Global status two layers of concrete, 12 inches thick
report on road safety 2013, about 1.24 surface layer and 6 inches thick lean
million people globally die each year as a concrete layer. The expressway can
result of road traffic crashes, which means withstand a vehicle load up to 80 tons and
nearly 3400 deaths a day. Without taking vehicle speed limit is 100 km/hr. There are
action, annual road traffic deaths are likely a total of 905 box culverts, 462 bridges and
to increase up to 1.9 million by 2030 and 116 underpasses along the Expressway.
might become the seventh leading cause of Motorcycle and pedestrian are prohibited
death (World Health Organization [WHO], to access on the expressway.
2013). Therefore, road traffic crashes
are prone to be a major socio-economic
problem of the world.
Figure 1. Location Map of
In Myanmar, one of the developing Yangon-Mandalay Expressway.
countries in Southeast Asia, a new
expressway connected between two
major cities (Yangon and Mandalay) was
constructed in 2005 and it passes through
several cities including Naypyitaw, the
capital of Myanmar. This expressway is
one of the infrastructure development
projects undertaken by the former military
government in the country and about 40
miles shorter than the existing old highway.

A few funds were invested in safety

measure and engineers were instructed by
the government to complete the project in
a short period. As a result, the project led
to be a rush job. Although it was expected
to be the most convenient and safest
expressway for road users, many traffic
accidents have been occurring on that way.
Annual number of traffic crash on that
expressway has been increasing with the
rapid growth of vehicle ownership. The
location of Yangon-Mandalay Expressway
is shown in Figure 1 and specifications of it
are also stated below.

44 BUILT 7, 2016
1.2 Problem Statement with increasing percent grade and grade difference.
In all traffic accident reports of Yangon-Mandalay Apart from the road geometric characteristics, traffic
Expressway, road users were mostly criticized (due to over accidents have been found to be associated with other
speeding) without thoroughly analyzing other factors such road environment factors. The variable, presence of
as road surface defect, defective road geometric design, village settlement, represents the level of pedestrian
insufficient number of lanes, structural deformation of interference with vehicles on the highway sections and
pavement and other road safety management system. It the section which had a village settlement were found to
has been verified by a previous research that speed on increase injury crashes by 60.3% compared with sections
a road section is the only factor influencing the severity with no settlements (Ackaah & Salifu, 2011). Mohammed,
of crashes on expressway (Ratanavaraha & Suangka, Umar, Samson and Ahmad (2015) also explained that
2014, pp. 130-136). Although speeding is universally number of towns or villages on the routes seem to play an
recognized as related to traffic crashes, other accident important role in traffic safety. There have very few recent
contribution factors are still needed to be considered published literature sources related to traffic accident and
on Yangon-Mandalay expressway. All accidents on that presence of bridge. Ogden (1989) reported about bridge
expressway are listed as due to “driver error”, “over crash prediction model and reviewed significant factors
speeding”, “tire bursting” is not a good conclusion that associated with bridge crashes.
other road characteristics are not involved and no further
considerations are required. 2.2 Model Form
An Accident Prediction Model (APM) is a mathematical
formula describing the relation between the safety level
1.3 Research Objective of existing roads (i.e. crashes, victims, injured, fatalities,
The major objective of the study was to examine etc.) and variables that explain this level (road length,
relationships between road characteristics and traffic width, traffic volume, etc.). The parameter of the model,
crashes and to support safety improvement program on however, can vary between types of roads and countries
Yangon-Mandalay expressway. due to differences in road characteristics, road user
behavior, vehicle type and environment of the road from
2. Literature Review place to place (Eenink, Reurings, Elvik & Stefan, 2008).

2.1 Model Explanatory Variables In statistics, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) is a flexible
There have been analyzing the relationship between road generalization of ordinary linear regression. GLM allows
characteristics and number of traffic crashes in several response variables with error distribution other than a
research papers (Mohammadi, Samaranayake & Blam, normal distribution. Currently, Generalized Linear Model
2014; Shenker, Chowksey & Sandhu, 2015; Kassawat, (GLM) is the popular approach for the development of
Sarapirome & Ratanavaraha, 2015). The nature of these Crash Prediction Models (Greibe, 2003; Ackaah & Salifu,
researches varies with different types of roads, different 2011; Kumar, Parida & Jain, 2013; Zou, Wu & Lord, 2015).
numbers of road characteristics and different methods Poisson regression model, a family of GLMs, is widely used
of analyses. Many researchers have considered Average in modeling count data since accident data are in the form
Daily Traffic (ADT) in the crash prediction model as the of count and discrete property. However, the use of
most effective parameter and it has positive relationship Poisson regression has been restricted by the limitation;
with traffic accidents (Saffarzadeh & Pooryari, 2005; because Poisson regression has a strong assumption of
Caliendo, Guida & Parisi, 2007; Kumar, Parida & Jain, mean equal to variance (Miaou & Lum, 1993). Negative
2013). Aram (2010) claimed the important of horizontal Binomial (NB) Model is the extension of Poisson model
curve that are more dangerous when combined with and an alternative approach to modeling over-dispersion
gradients and surface with low coefficients of friction. (variance > mean) in count data. It has been remained as
Psarianos, Kontaratos and Giotis (1994) concluded their the most commonly used statistical tool among several
analysis that there is a strong relationship between the statistical models that have been proposed for modeling
radius of horizontal curve and grade and there should crash data (Kibar, Celik & Aytac, 2013; Zou, Wu & Lord,
have larger minimum curve radius on longitudinal 2015; Naznin, Currie, Logan & Sarvi, 2016). Oppong (2012)
grade at higher vehicle speed. In addition, Bauer and argued that NB model is best fit for the over-dispersion
Harwood (2013) stated that crash frequency increases data. Although NB is more general than the Poisson
with decreasing horizontal curve radius and increase model, it cannot perform well when the data is

Mon, C. T., Pueboobpaphan, R. and Ratanavaraha, V. 45

 under-dispersed (Variance < Mean) or Table 1. Variable Selection and description.
characterized by low sample mean and No variable Description of variable Type and Range of values
small sample size. Conway Maxwell Poisson Response Number of accident in three
Model is one of the integrated Poisson 1 Continuous variable
variable years per road segment
model. The main advantage of this Average Daily Traffic per road
distribution over other model is its ability to 2 Continuous variable
segment
handle both the over-dispersion and under- Presence of sharp horizontal Categorical variable
dispersion data. However, it is also noted 3
curve per road segment 1= present , 0 = absent
that the model does not perform well Average horizontal curvature
when the mean of the sample is low or the 4 Continuous variable
per road segment
sample size is very small (Lord, Geedipally & Percent upgrade per road
Guikema, 2010). 5 Continuous variable
segment
Percent downgrade per road
3. Methodology 6 Continuous variable
Predictor segment
variables Combination of horizontal
3.1 Data Collection Categorical variable
7 curve and slope per road
The data were specified into three groups; 1= yes, 0 = otherwise
segment
crash data, road data and road geometric Categorical variable
data. Crash data consists of several types of 1= None
collision based on the 2013 - 2015 period. Presence of bridge per road
8 2= presence one bridge
The road data comprises information segment
3= presence two and
on AADT, surface roughness and surface more bridges
type of the road, lane and median width, Presence of village settlement Categorical variable
terrain type of the road, location of bridges, 9
per road segment 1= present , 0 = absent
village settlement and guardrails. And the
road geometric data contains horizontal
and vertical profile of the expressway. 3.4 Statistical Model Overview
Secondary types of data were acquired The study focused on traffic accident and
from the Ministry of Construction of the road characteristic on Yangon-Mandalay
Myanmar government. The data were then Expressway in Myanmar. It is generally
extracted and processed by using Microsoft known that there is a complex relationship
excel application to perform the crash between crash occurrences and road
prediction model. characteristics. A factor or a combination of
factors is an origin of accident occurrences.
3.2 Study Location and Defining Road To control this complexity, accident
Section prediction models can be used as a tool.
Yangon-Mandalay expressway, whose total Accident prediction models are used to
length was 366 miles, was selected for predict the number of accidents on
study location. Road sections were divided highways based on various accident
into one mile uniform length segments for modification factors such as traffic volume,
analysis process. lane width, shoulder width, degree of
curvature etc. In this study, Negative
3.3 Variable Selection and Description Binomial Regression model was performed
A total of eight predictor variables were to examine relationships between traffic
used in the crash prediction model. Their crash and road characteristics and Figure 2
description and range of values were shown displays the procedure of the study.
in Table 1.

46 BUILT 7, 2016
 The predictor variable, Annual Average
Daily Traffic (AADT) referred to exposure
variable in the model and it was transformed
into natural log. Transforming exposure
variable provided a better fit and was
suitable for functional representation of
larger AADT values (Valentová, Ambros &
Janoška, 2014). Furthermore, transforming
exposure measures to the natural logarithm
was common practice of crash prediction
modeling in previous researches (Ackaah
& Salifu, 2011; Ceungnck, T. D., Daniels,
S., Brijs, T., Hermans, E. & Wets, G., 2011;
Valentová, Ambros & Janoška, 2014).

3.4.2 Model Development

To predict the number of crash on Yangon-
Mandalay expressway, Negative Binomial
regression model was performed with
the help of SPSS (Statistical Package of
Figure 2. Flow chart for Social Science) statistical software. Three
methodology. year’s accident data were considered as
the response variable. Annual Average
3.4.1 Negative Binomial Regression Model Daily Traffic (AADT), presence of sharp
According to the descriptive statistic of the horizontal curve, average horizontal
study, the mean and variance of crash data curvature, percent upgrade, percent
ware 1.33 and 2.60 respectively. Hence, downgrade, combination of horizontal
the frequency of crashes was assumed to curve and slope, presence of bridge and
follow a Negative Binomial distribution as presence of village settlement within road
variance of response variable was greater segment were determined as predictor
than its mean. And this was consistent with variables. Correlation analysis had been
previous research papers (Dissanayake & carried out not only between predictor
Ratnayake, 2016; Kibar, Celik & Aytac, 2013; variables but also between predictor
Naznin, Currie, Logan & Sarvi, 2016). variables and response variable. Low
Negative Binomial regression is a type of correlation coefficient showed that there
generalized linear model and it is the simple was no strongly association between these
extension of the regular Poisson Regression variables. Variables with high degree of
to allow the variance to differ from its correlation were removed from the model
means. The link function of the model is to maintain the reliable result.
log and model coefficients are estimated
by the maximum likelihood approach. 3.4.3 Model Evaluation
The predicted number of crash for each Two statistical measures were used to
of highway segments modeling in NB evaluate the statistical performance of
regression can be described as follows; the model. These were the Pearson Chi-
square statistics and the Deviance statistics.
(α × ϐ1 ln AADT × ∑ ni=0 ϐi Xi) Equation 1
Ŷ=e Table 2 displays the goodness of fit
measures estimated by the SPSS software.
Where; Ŷ = predicted number of crash The value of Pearson Chi-square and
AADT = annual average daily traffic Deviance statistics divided by its degree
X = predictor variables of freedom were estimated to be 1.081
α = model intercept and 1.088 respectively. This showed that
ϐi = model coefficients

Mon, C. T., Pueboobpaphan, R. and Ratanavaraha, V. 47

 the assumption of Negative Binomial (NB) Table 2. Goodness of fit test of the model estimated by SPSS statistical software.
distribution and the use of NB modal were Goodness of fit statistics Value df Value/df
appropriate for the data since these values Deviance 787.360 724 1.088
were within the acceptable range, between Scaled Deviance 787.360 724
0.8 and 1.2 (Ackaah & Salifu, 2011; Pearson Chi-Square 782.464 724 1.081
Dissanayake & Ratnayake, 2006). The value Scaled Pearson
782.464 724
of dispersion parameter, estimated from Chi-Square
the NB model which has shown in table 3, Log
-1102.3
Likelihoodb
was found to be significantly different from
Akaike’s
zero (Ø=0.341 ); this also suggested that the
Information 2220.14
use of NB model was more suitable than Criterion (AIC)
using Poisson model (Naznin, Currie, Logan Finite Sample Corrected AIC
& Sarvi, 2016). 2220.34
(AICC)
Bayesian Information
2256.91
3.4.4 Model Parameter Estimation Criterion (BIC)
Table 3 represents the parameter Consistent AIC (CAIC) 2264.91
estimation of the model. Five predictor
variables including presence of bridge,
Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT),
percent downgrade, combination of
horizontal curve and slope and presence of
village settlement were statistically
significant with statistical criterions (P < 0.05
and 95% confident intervals for the
coefficients).

4. Results and Interpretation Table 3. Parameter Estimation of the Model estimated by SPSS statistical
software.
The results can be written as following Parameter Estimates
equation; Parameter coeffici Std. 95% Wald Hypothesis Test
ents Error Lower Upper Wald df Sig.
E(Y) = EXP(-4.895+0.275PB+0.609 lnADT (Intercept) -4.859 1.3537 -7.512 -2.206 12.884 1 .000
+0.242PD+0.422CHS+0.286PV) [Presence of bridge
.087 .1165 -.141 .316 .560 1 .454
Equation 2 = 3]
[Presence of bridge
.275 .0862 .106 .444 10.197 1 .001
Where; = 2]
E(Y) = Predicted number of accident [Presence of bridge
0a . . . . . .
per road segment = 1]
PB = Presence of bridge per road Ln AADT .609 .1780 .260 .958 11.690 1 .001
segment Percent downgrade .242 .0635 .118 .367 14.570 1 .000
AADT = Annual Average Daily Traffic per Combination of
road segment Horizontal curve and .422 .0840 .257 .587 25.226 1 .000
PD = Percent downgrade per road slope
Presence of village
segment .286 .0928 .104 .467 9.474 1 .002
settlement
CHS = Combination of horizontal curve
(Scale) 1b
and slope per road segment
(Negative binomial) .341 .0602 .242 .482
PV = Presence of village settlement
per road segment
EXP = Exponential function
(e = 2.718282)

48 BUILT 7, 2016
One of the predictor variables in the prediction model, vast majority of these accidents can be related to the
presences of bridge, has positive relationship with crash settlement of local people along the expressway.
frequency. It has been found out that some of the bridge
existing on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway have complex 5. Conclusion
geometric approach, lack of bridge-approach guardrail
with proper transition and end treatment. This situation The study examined dominant factors that lead to
might happen to bridge related crashes on the expressway. crash frequency on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway in
Myanmar. Negative Binomial regression, a family of
Annual Average Daily Traffic (AATD) has been used as the Generalized Linear Model, was developed to estimate
exposure variable in previous crash prediction models and the model parameters. It was found out that there is
there is relationship between traffic volume and traffic relationship between traffic crash frequency and road
accidents (Saffarzadeh & Pooryari, 2005; Caliendo, Guida characteristics variables including presence of bridge,
& Parisi, 2007; Kumar, Parido & Jain, 2013). The study Average Daily Traffic, combination of horizontal curve
result is compatible with these papers indicating that and slope, percent downgrade and presence of village
AADT is statistically significant with positive estimation settlement along the expressway. The finding can be
coefficient; meaning that crash frequency increases with applied as a tool for improving safety performance process
increasing traffic volume. on Yangon-Mandalay Expressway.

The positive regression coefficient of percent downgrade 6. Recommendations

in the model expresses that crash frequency increases
as percent downgrade increases. This situation might The following recommendations can be provided
concern with the skidding and demand of side friction on with regard to the finding. A combination of education,
downgrade. Downgrade changes the distribution of weight enforcement and engineering measures will be required
on tires and consequently they can alter the dynamic to eliminate the crash frequencies on Yangon-Mandalay
performance of vehicles in terms of forces and Expressway. The geometric improvements for traffic
accelerations. As a result, the side friction factor increases safety on road sections where horizontal alignment
as the downgrade increases (Kordani & Molan, 2014). combined with vertical alignment include: (1) widening
the lane and shoulder width on sharp horizontal curves,
The variable naming combination of horizontal curve and (2) increasing the amount of super elevation (up to
slope in the model has a considerable influence on the maximum allowable rate), (3) increasing the distance of road
crash frequency as indicated by the positive model side clear zone, (4) increasing the value of side friction (up
parameter. The previous study has shown a similar result to maximum allowable value) on every downgrade curve
reporting that horizontal curves are more dangerous when site, (5) delineating the pavement at all hazard locations to
it combine with gradients and surface with low coefficients provide visual information to road users, and (6) providing
of friction (Aram, 2010). Horizontal and vertical curves warning by the use of traffic control devices to reduce
should not be designed independently when a section of vehicle speed limit at every approach to the curve and
a highway needs to be designed combined alignments. downgrade.
Imperfect combination of horizontal and vertical
alignment may pose negative impact on driving comfort Safety improvements related to the existing bridges on
and worsen safety effect. Yangon-Mandalay Expressway includes: (1) providing
speed reduction signs at every approach to the skew
Ackaah and Salifu (2011) have found an increase of injury bridge and the bridge consists of complex geometric
crashes in road sections which has village settlements approach, and (2) black and yellow hazard marking should
compared with segments with no settlements. Likewise, be supplied at the areas surrounding the bridge to enable
the predictor variable in the model, presence of village the driver’s awareness on presence of it.
settlement, has positive significant coefficient and proved
that number of accident increases with increasing village The influence of pedestrians and motorbikes on Yangon-
settlement along the expressway. Crash data used for Mandalay Expressway can be determined as the lack of
this study include several types of crash such as collisions enforcing road rules and road safety education to users.
involving motorcycle and passenger vehicle, vehicle- To overcome this problem, road authorities fundamentally
animals collisions and vehicle-pedestrian collisions. The need to implement how to educate and enforce road

Mon, C. T., Pueboobpaphan, R. and Ratanavaraha, V. 49

 safety to the local people living close to the expressway. Greibe, P. (2003). Accident prediction models for urban
In addition, there is needed to constructed other minor roads. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 35(2), 273–
roads; i.e., frontage road, roads connect village to village 285.
and village to town with interchange if it is required, so Kassawat, S., Sarapirome, S. & Ratanavaraha, V. (2015).
that road users are needless to assess the expressway and Integration of spatial models for web- based risk
cross directly any other traffic streams. assessment of road accident. Walailak Journal of
Science and Technology, 12(8), 671-679.
7. Acknowledgements Kibar, F. T., Celik, F. & Aytac, B. P. (2013). An accident
prediction model for divided highways: A case study
The authors of this paper would like to express great of Trabzon coastal divided highway. WIT Transactions
appreciation to Thailand International Development on the built environment, 130 (1), 711-719. DOI: 10.
Cooperation Agency (TICA) for providing financial support 2495/ut130571.
of the research. Special thanks are extended to the Kordani, A. A. & Molan, A. M. (2014). The effect of
personnel from the Ministry of Construction in Myanmar combined horizontal curve and longitudinal grade
for their help in collection of data. We also would like to on side friction factors. KSCE Journal of Civil
acknowledge the editor and reviewers for their careful Engineering, 19(1), 303-310. DOI:10.1007/s12205-013-
readings, suggestions and comments our manuscript. 0453-3.
Kumar, C. N., Parida, M. & Jain, S. S. (2013). Poisson family
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