Network Diagram

Program Evaluation and Review Technique

Arrow Diagram Method (ADM)
(PERT)

Network Diagram

Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) Critical Path Method (CPM)

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Step 01: Construct or draw the project network or network diagram

Step 02: Prepare the activity schedule

Step 03: Determine the critical path and expected project completion time or length

Step 04: Probability of project completion

Figure: Steps in PERT

Page 1 of 24
 Step 01:
• How to construct or draw the project network?

Example 01: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors /Preceding Activity

A -
B -
C -
D A
E B
F C
G D

Now draw the network diagram/ draw the PERT network diagram/ draw the project network.
Remember!
Solution:
= Node

= Arch
D
A 2 5
G
B E
1 3
6
F
4
C

Page 2 of 24
Example 02: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors /Preceding Activity

A None
B A
C B
D B
E C
F E
G D

Now draw the network diagram/ draw the PERT network diagram/ draw the project network.

Solution:

A B C
1 2 3 4 E

D F
6 G

Page 3 of 24
Example 03: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors /Preceding Activity

A None
B A
C B
D B
E D
F C
G E, F

Now draw the network diagram/ draw the PERT network diagram/ draw the project network.

Solution:

B
3 C
A F
1 2 5
G
6 7
D
4
E

Page 4 of 24
Example 04: Data on activities:

Activity Predecessors /Preceding Activity

A None
B -
C A
D B
E C, D
F E

Now construct the project network.

Solution:

C E F
A 2
4 5 6
1

B 3 D

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Example 05: Data on activities:

Activity

1-2
1-6
2-3
2-4
3-5
6-5

Now construct the project network.

Solution:

3
2
1

4
6

Page 6 of 24
 Step 02:
• How to prepare an activity schedule?

Example 01: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic Time (o/a/x) Most Likely Time (m) Most Pessimistic Time (p/b/y)
A None 3 5 8
B - 3 5 7
C A 2 4 6
D B 4 6 9
E C,D 6 7 8
F E 8 9 11

Prepare the activity schedule or Find the expected duration and variance of each activity.

Solution:

Activity Time Expected Duration Variance of Each Activity

o m p 𝒐 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒑 𝒑−𝒐 𝟐
𝑬𝒕 = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
𝟔 𝟔

A 3 5 8 5.167 0.694
B 3 5 7 5 0.444
C 2 4 6 4 0.444
D 4 6 9 6.167 0.694
E 6 7 8 7 0.111
F 8 9 11 9.167 0.250
Total (if asked to calculate)

Page 7 of 24
Example 02: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic Time (o/a/x) Most Likely Time (m) Most Pessimistic Time (p/b/y)
A None 12 13 14

B - 12 14 15

C A 8 11 14

D B 7 9 11

E C,D 14 16 18

F E 9 12 15

Prepare the activity schedule or Find the expected duration and variance of each activity.

Solution:

Activity Time Expected Duration Variance of each activity

o m p 𝒐 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒑 𝒑−𝒐 𝟐
𝑬𝒕 = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
𝟔 𝟔

A 12 13 14 13 0.111

B 12 14 15 13.833 0.250

C 8 11 14 11 1

D 7 9 11 9 0.444

E 14 16 18 16 0.444

F 9 12 15 12 1

Page 8 of 24
 Step 03:
• How to determine the critical path and expected project completion time or length?

Example 01: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic Time (o/a/x) Most Likely Time (m) Most Pessimistic Time (p/b/y)
A None 3 5 8
B - 3 5 7
C A 2 4 6
D B 4 6 9
E C, D 6 7 8
F E 8 9 11

Find the critical path and expected project completion time.

Solution:

Activity Time Expected Duration Variance of Each Activity

o m p 𝒐 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒑 𝒑−𝒐 𝟐
𝑬𝒕 = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
𝟔 𝟔

A 3 5 8 5.167 0.694
B 3 5 7 5 0.444
C 2 4 6 4 0.444
D 4 6 9 6.167 0.694
E 6 7 8 7 0.111
F 8 9 11 9.167 0.250

Page 9 of 24
 Remember!
Latest Finish Time/Earliest Start Time

Earliest Start Time= Forward Pass

0/0 7.167/5.167 11.167/11.167 Latest Finish Time= Backward Pass

A (5.167) C (4) E (7) F (9.167)

2 6
4 5 27.334/27.334
1

B (5) 3 D (6.167) 18.167/18.167

5/5

Therefore, the critical path is 1-3-4-5-6/B-D-E-F (Ans.)

And the expected project completion time= (5+6.167+7+9.167) = 27.334 (Ans.)

Page 10 of 24
Example 02: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic Time (o/a/x) Most Likely Time (m) Most Pessimistic Time (p/b/y)
A None 12 13 14

B - 12 14 15

C A 8 11 14

D B 7 9 11

E C,D 14 16 18

F E 9 12 15

Find the critical path and expected project completion time

Solution:

Activity Time Expected Duration Variance of each activity

o m p 𝒐 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒑 𝒑−𝒐 𝟐
𝑬𝒕 = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
𝟔 𝟔

A 12 13 14 13 0.111

B 12 14 15 13.833 0.250

C 8 11 14 11 1

D 7 9 11 9 0.444

E 14 16 18 16 0.444

F 9 12 15 12 1

Page 11 of 24
 0/0 13/13 24/24

A (13) C (11) E (16) F (12)

2 6
4 5 52/52
1

B (13.833) 3 D (9) 40/40

15/13.833

Therefore, the critical path is 1-2-4-5-6/A-C-E-F (Ans.)

And the expected project completion time= (13+11+16+12) = 52 weeks/Days (Ans.)

Page 12 of 24
 Step 04:
• How to determine the probability of project completion ?

Example 01: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic Time (o/a/x) Most Likely Time (m) Most Pessimistic Time (p/b/y)
A None 3 5 8
B - 3 5 7
C A 2 4 6
D B 4 6 9
E C,D 6 7 8
F E 8 9 11

What is the probability of completing the project on or before 30 weeks?

Solution:

Activity Time Expected Duration Variance of Each Activity

o m p 𝒐 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒑 𝒑−𝒐 𝟐
𝑬𝒕 = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
𝟔 𝟔

A 3 5 8 5.167 0.694
B 3 5 7 5 0.444
C 2 4 6 4 0.444
D 4 6 9 6.167 0.694
E 6 7 8 7 0.111
F 8 9 11 9.167 0.250

Page 13 of 24
 0/0 7.167/5.167 11.167/11.167

A (5.167) C (4) E (7) F (9.167)

2 6
4 5 27.334/27.334
1

B (5) 3 D (6.167) 18.167/18.167

5/5

Therefore, the critical path is 1-3-4-5-6 /B-D-E-F (Ans.)

And the expected project completion time= (5+6.167+7+9.167) = 27.334 weeks/ days (Ans.)

Page 14 of 24
 Critical Activities Expected Duration 𝟐
Variance of Each Activity (𝝈 )
B 5 0.444

D 6.167 0.694

E 7 0.111

F 9.167 0.250

Total 27.334 1.499

Therefore 𝝁= 27.334 𝝈=1.224

According to the requirement, the probability of completing the project on or before 30 weeks is:

𝑥−𝜇 30−27.334
P (x≤30) = P [ = ]
𝜎 1.224

= P [𝑧 ≤ 2.178]
= 0.9854
=98.54% (Ans.)

Page 15 of 24
Example 02: Data on activities

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic Time (o/a/x) Most Likely Time (m) Most Pessimistic Time (p/b/y)
A None 12 13 14

B - 12 14 15

C A 8 11 14

D B 7 9 11

E C,D 14 16 18

F E 9 12 15

What is the probability of completing the project on or before 15 weeks?

Solution:

Activity Time Expected Duration Variance of each activity

o m p 𝒐 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒑 𝒑−𝒐 𝟐
𝑬𝒕 = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
𝟔 𝟔

A 12 13 14 13 0.111

B 12 14 15 13.833 0.250

C 8 11 14 11 1

D 7 9 11 9 0.444

E 14 16 18 16 0.444

F 9 12 15 12 1

Page 16 of 24
 0/0 13/13 24/24

A (13) C (11) E (16) F (12)

2 6
4 5 52/52
1

B (13.833) 3 D (9) 40/40

15/13.833

Therefore, the critical path is 1-2-4-5-6/A-C-E-F (Ans.)

And the expected project completion time= (13+11+16+12) = 52 weeks/Days (Ans.)

Page 17 of 24
 Critical Activities Expected Duration 𝟐
Variance of Each Activity (𝝈 )
A 13 0.111

C 11 1

E 16 0.444

F 12 1

Total 52 2.555

Therefore 𝝁=52 𝝈=1.598

According to the requirement, the probability of completing the project on or before 54 weeks is:

𝑥−𝜇 54−52
P (x≤54) = P [ = ]
𝜎 1.598

= P [𝑧 ≤ 1.25]
=0.894
=89.4% (Ans.)

Page 18 of 24
 Now see the full problem!
Example:

Weekly data of a project is summarized below

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic Time (o/a/x) Most Likely Time (m) Most Pessimistic Time (p/b/y)

A None 3 5 8

B - 3 5 7

C A 2 4 6

D B 4 6 9

E C,D 6 7 8

F E 8 9 11

i. Construct the project network.

ii. Prepare the activity schedule.
iii. Find the critical path and expected project completion time.
iv. What is the probability of completing the project on or before 30 weeks?

Page 19 of 24
Solution to requirement 01

C E F
A 2
4 5 6
1

B 3 D

Solution to requirement 02

Activity Time Expected Duration Variance of Each Activity

o m p 𝒐 + 𝟒𝒎 + 𝒑 𝒑−𝒐 𝟐
𝑬𝒕 = 𝝈𝟐 = ( )
𝟔 𝟔

A 3 5 8 5.167 0.694
B 3 5 7 5 0.444
C 2 4 6 4 0.444
D 4 6 9 6.167 0.694
E 6 7 8 7 0.111
F 8 9 11 9.167 0.250

Page 20 of 24
Solution to requirement 03

0/0 7.167/5.167 11.167/11.167

A (5.167) C (4) E (7) F (9.167)

2 6
4 5 27.334/27.334
1

B (5) 3 D (6.167) 18.167/18.167

5/5

Therefore, the critical path is 1-3-4-5-6 /B-D-E-F (Ans.)

And the expected project completion time= (5+6.167+7+9.167) = 27.334 weeks/ days (Ans.)

Page 21 of 24
Solution to requirement 04

Critical Activities Expected Duration 𝟐

Variance of Each Activity (𝝈 )
B 5 0.444

D 6.167 0.694

E 7 0.111

F 9.167 0.250

Total 27.334 1.499

Therefore 𝝁= 27.334 𝝈=1.224

According to the requirement, the probability of completing the project on or before 30 weeks is:

𝑥−𝜇 30−27.334
P (x≤30) = P [ = ]
𝜎 1.224

= P [𝑧 ≤ 2.178]
= 0.9854
=98.54% (Ans.)

Page 22 of 24
 Assignment
1) Data on weekly activities are summarized below-

Activity Predecessors Most Optimistic time (o) Most Likely time (m) Most Pessimistic time (p)
A - 5 6 7
B - 1 3 5
C - 1 4 7
D A 1 2 3
E B 1 2 9
F C 1 5 9
G C 2 2 8
H E,F 4 4 10
I D 2 5 8
J H,G 2 2 8

i. Construct the project network.

ii. Find the expected duration and variance of each activity.
iii. Find the critical path and expected project completion time.
iv. What is the probability of completing the project on or before 22 weeks?

Page 23 of 24
 2) The following table shows the jobs of a network along with their time estimates-

Activity Estimated Duration (Days)

Optimistic time (o) Most Likely time (m) Pessimistic time (p)
1-2 1 7 13
1-6 2 5 14
2-3 2 14 26
2-4 2 5 8
3-5 7 10 19
4-5 5 5 17
6-7 5 8 29
5-8 3 3 9
7-8 8 17 32

i. Draw the project network.

ii. Find the expected duration and variance of each activity.
iii. Find the critical path and expected project completion time.
iv. What is the probability of completing the project in 40 days?

Page 24 of 24