2021 08 10 21261846v2 Full
2021 08 10 21261846v2 Full
2021 08 10 21261846v2 Full
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Early Child Cognitive Development: A Comparison of Develop-
ment in Children Born During the Pandemic and Historical References
Sean CL Deoni, PhD1,2,3, Jennifer Beauchemin, BSc1, Alexandra Volpe, BSc1, Viren D’Sa, PhD1,2, and
the RESONANCE Consortium
1 Advanced Baby Imaging Lab, Rhode Island Hospital, Providence RI, USA
2 Department of Pediatrics, Warren Alpert Medical School at Brown University, Providence RI, USA
3 Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Warren Alpert Medical School at Brown University, Providence RI, USA
Funding:
1. Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) National Institutes of Health
(SCD UG3OD023313);
2. National Institutes of Health (SCD R34DA050284);
Data Sharing:
All data reported in this work is available in de-identified format from the corresponding author.
NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.
medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261846; this version posted August 16, 2022. The copyright holder for this preprint
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Joseph Braun, PhD, Brown University School of Public Health, Brown University;
Susan Carnell, PhD, Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Johns Hopkins Uni-
versity
medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261846; this version posted August 16, 2022. The copyright holder for this preprint
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List of Abbreviations
ABSTRACT
Objective. To characterize cognitive function in young children under 3 years of age over the past
decade, and test whether children exhibit different cognitive development profiles through the COVID-
19 pandemic.
Study Design. Neurocognitive data (Mullen Scales of Early Learning, MSEL) were drawn from 700
healthy and neurotypically developing children between 2011 to 2021 without reported positive tests or
clinical diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared MSEL composite measures (general cogni-
tion, verbal, and non-verbal development) to test if those measured during 2020 and 2021 differed
significantly from historical 2011-2019 values. We also compared MSEL values in a sub-cohort com-
prising infants 0-16 months of age born during the pandemic vs. infants born prior. In all analyses, we
also included measures of socioeconomic status, birth outcome history, and maternal stress.
Results. A significant decrease in mean population MSEL measures was observed in 2021 compared
to historical references. Infants born during the pandemic exhibited significantly reduced verbal, non-
verbal, and overall cognitive performance compared to children born pre-pandemic. Maternal stress
was not found to be associated with observed declines but a higher socioeconomic status was found
to be protective.
Conclusions. Results reveal a striking decline in cognitive performance since the onset of the
COVID-19 pandemic with infants born since mid-2020 showing an average decrease of 27-37 points.
INTRODUCTION
The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in the USA in the latter part of 2019 and early
months of 2020 has brought widespread change and disruption to our social, economic, and public
health environments. While children have largely been spared the severe health and mortality compli-
cations of SARS-CoV-2 infection (1, 2), they have not been immune to the impact of the public health
and social distancing policies that closed daycare centers, schools, and playgrounds (3, 4) and limited
opportunities for play and interaction. While these policies helped to limit COVID-19 spread they also
disrupted educational opportunities ( 5), limited interaction with other children and caregivers (6), and
reduced opportunities for physical activity and play (7). More broadly, these policies have also shut-
tered businesses and led to large-scale employment shifts which may have affected the home, food,
and financial security of children through parental or caregiver job loss or furloughs.
In light of these social and economic challenges, there has been concern amongst early child re-
searchers regarding the impact of the pandemic on infant and early child development and mental
health. While there are few past examples of non-conflict-related lock-downs with a similar geographic
extent and prolonged timeline, past studies of acute and chronic environmental stress on child devel-
opment provide important context. There is little doubt that chronic maternal stress, anxiety, and de-
pression throughout pregnancy can impact fetal and post-natal development (8, 9). Maternal stress
experience may be associated with increased fetal exposure to stress-related hormones (e.g.,
cortisol), which can result in differential brain structural and functional development and later cognitive
impairments (10-13). For example, past analysis has revealed strong associations between maternal
prenatal stress and anxiety related to maternal or paternal displacement and job loss and infant health
(birth weight and gestation duration), mortality, temperament, and cognitive development (14). Severe
acute stress, such as that associated with natural disasters (e.g., the 1998 snowstorm that affected
central Canada, and the 2006 Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana) has been shown to yield long-term cog-
nitive and intellectual consequences in children who were exposed in utero (15, 16). Of note, in utero
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exposure to maternal stress appears to more adversely affect the male fetus (17, 18), implying poten-
In addition to the potential impact on the developing fetus, children exposed to environmental stress
and adversity may also be similarly affected. Prolonged stress, such as experienced during wartime or
refugee replacement (e.g., the Bosnian war from 1992-1995) is associated with worsened long-term
physical and mental health (19). Recent cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of children and ado-
lescents during the early stages of the pandemic have revealed increased stress, anxiety, and depres-
sion (20) alongside reduced academic growth in math and language arts (4).
While pre and post-natal stress and adversity can clearly impact the developing child, these effects
may be moderated by compounding social and structural factors such as socioeconomic status, ac-
cess to healthcare, and other social determinants of health (21, 22). The COVID-19 pandemic has
disproportionately affected Latino, Black, African American, and lower socioeconomic status (SES)
individuals and families (23, 24). Of reported COVID-19 cases in pregnant women, the majority are
Latino (42.5%) and Black and African American (26.5%) (25, 26). 46% of hospitalized children are
Latino and 30% are Black or African American (27) and are more likely to develop severe illness (28).
Likewise, Latino and Black/African American adults are three times more likely to be hospitalized with
COVID-19, and 1.9-2.3 times more likely to suffer severe complications or death (29). Adults with in-
comes below $15,000 are at 2x greater risk of serious illness than those who make $50,000 or more
(30) and they have been hardest hit by the closure of non-essential services, employee furloughs, and
Finally, changes in the children's home environment may also have a developmental impact. For ex-
ample, while associated with stress, reduced income from job loss or layoff may affect the ability to
provide optimal nutrition and access to healthcare (31). Closed daycare centers, public parks, and
gathering spaces can limit explorative play (32), child-child interaction, and environmental stimulation
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(22). And parents who may have taken on additional jobs may have experienced reduced time to read
and interact with their children. All of these factors have previously been associated with variations in
Taken together, these past findings strongly imply the likely impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandem-
ic and related environmental changes and stressors on child health and neurodevelopment. However,
the specific impact on infant and pre-school cognitive development remains less clear, with few stud-
ies focused on this early age range from 0-3 years (36). However, emerging results are disturbing. For
example, findings from a prenatal cohort in New York City recruiting during the earliest stages of the
pandemic reveal reduced motor and cognitive development in infants at 6-months of age (37), and
children 6 and 12-months of age born during the pandemic in Guangzhou, China, similarly show re-
From 2011, the RESONANCE longitudinal study of child health and neurodevelopment has been co-
ordinated from the Warren Alpert Medical School at Brown University in Providence. This study in-
cludes approximately 1600 caregiver-child dyads who have been continuously enrolled between 0 and
5 years of age since 2010 and have been followed through infancy, childhood, and early adolescence.
This cohort, therefore, offers a unique opportunity to examine the potential impact of the COVID-19
pandemic on child health trends in RI and to compare with other trends observed throughout the US.
Like many regions in the United States, RI implemented a series of school closures, public access,
and travel restrictions, and limited social gatherings early on in the pandemic to limit virus spread. El-
ementary schools were closed to in-person instruction from March to September 2020 and many con-
tinued to operate fully online or with hybrid in-person learning until January 2021. Daycares were also
closed in March 2020 but were allowed to reopen with limited capacity from June 2020 until June
2021. Broader state-wide travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enforced from March to
May 2020, with many businesses operating with reduced on-site workforces and/or work-from-home
options until mid-2021. Indoor and outdoor mask policies were also in place throughout 2020 and
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2021 following CDC guidance. Despite being one of the smaller US states (population ~1 million), RI
has recorded ~154,000 cases of COVID-19 illness and almost 3,000 deaths and mirrored national
trends with respect to disproportionate infections and deaths in Hispanic, Latino, and African American
communities (39, 40), and lower-income families (41). Thus pregnant individuals and families in RI ex-
Drawing from our RESONANCE dataset, we used linear mixed-effects models to examine trends in
infant and early child neurodevelopment over the past decade, from 2011 to 2021. We find that even
controlling for factors including age, biological sex, socioeconomic status, and maternal stress, mea-
sures of verbal, non-verbal, and overall cognitive functioning are significantly lower in 2021 compared
to past years. These results provide additional supporting evidence that aspects associated with the
COVID-19 pandemic, even in the absence of direct SARS-CoV-2 infection, have impacted infant and
METHODS
All data were collected in accordance with ethical approval and oversight by the Rhode Island Hospital
institutional review board. Informed consent was obtained from all parents or legal guardians.
Between January 2011 and December 2021, a total of 1247 cognitive assessments have been per-
formed on 700 healthy and neurotypically developing children from 3 months through 3 years of age.
At the time of enrollment, all children met the following criteria for inclusion: Full-term gestation (38
weeks or greater); singleton pregnancy; no abnormalities on prenatal ultrasound; healthy birth weight
(>2500g); no exposure to cigarette smoke, alcohol, marijuana, or illicit substances in utero; uncompli-
cated delivery (e.g., no history of birth asphyxia), no history of gestation diabetes in the mother; no
major psychiatric illness in the mother including depression requiring medication in the year prior to
pregnancy; no neurological trauma in the infant; and no diagnosed neurological disorder in the infant
(e.g., epilepsy). Further, none of the children or pregnant mothers with newborns reported a positive
antibody, antigen, or PCR-TR result for SARS-CoV-2 infection over the past year, or had a clinical di-
agnosis.
For this study, we examined the potential impact of pandemic-related environmental changes in the
following groups: 1. 700 children between 3months and 3 years of age assessed between January 1,
2011, and November 30, 2021; and 2. In a comparison of 525 infants 0-16months of age born before
the pandemic (n=388) and during the pandemic (n=137). A pictorial overview of all included child as-
sessment timings is shown in Supplemental Figure 1, with demographic details provided in Table 1.
Neurocognitive Assessments
The primary neurocognitive outcome measure assessed in all children was the Mullen Scales of Early
Learning, MSEL (42). The MSEL is a population-normed and clinically-administered tool that assesses
function across five primary domains: Fine and Gross Motor control, Visual Reception, and Expressive
and Receptive Language via direct observation and performance. Raw domain scores can be con-
verted to age-normalized T-scores and combined into the three composite values: the Early Learning
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Composite, and the Verbal and Non-Verbal Development Quotients (ELC, VDQ, and NVDQ, respec-
tively).
All assessments, both before and during the pandemic were performed in-person in a consistent lab
setting and overseen by a consulting neuropsychologist. Following institutional guidelines and direc-
tives, in-person assessments during the pandemic were performed with face masks on both staff and
participants.
Alongside neurocognitive assessments, parent and child health, birth outcome (weight, length, gesta-
tion), demographic (race, ethnicity, primary spoken language at home), and socioeconomic data (ma-
ternal and paternal education level) were collected via parent report. Highest completed education
grade of level was converted to the 7-level Hollingshead scale (43) with 1 = partial elementary school;
2 = elementary school graduate; 3 = partial high school; 4 = high school graduate; 5 = partial college;
Since 2017, maternal stress has been measured using the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) (44), a 10-
item self-report that provides a continuous scale of perceived and experienced stress due to life situa-
tions.
Data Analysis
ELC, VDQ, and NVDQ measures were grouped by testing year from 2011 to 2021. For 2020, we split
the sample into two parts corresponding to January 1 to April 1 and April 2 to December 31 - coincid-
ing with the state-wide lock-down and shelter-in-place orders. We then compared measure for each
composite score between each pre-post-pandemic year pair (e.g., 2011 vs 2020; 2012 vs. 2020 …….
2019 vs. 2021) using an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Child age and maternal education (as a
We further investigated trends in the longitudinal values by constructing a series of general linear
mixed-effects beginning with the most simplistic to determine if measures during the pandemic were
Where CM is the cognitive measure of interest (i.e., ELC, VDQ, or NVDQ) of child j at time-point i. β0,j
is the intercept and β1,j …., βn,j, are the regression coefficients. β0,j, β1,j combine a sample fixed effect
and a subject-specific random effect to allow individual differences in mean cognitive function and
change with age. The PANDEMIC term is a binary factor that is 0 for any testing date prior to March
16, 2020, and 1 for dates thereafter. Equation [1] was fit to the complete cohort dataset using the
fitlme function in Matlab (MathWorks, Cambridge, MA v2019b). Missing maternal education, birth
weight, and gestation period data were imputed using a random forest algorithm (fitrensemble).
We then used a step-wise approach to systematically include additional factors and interactive terms
to control for potential differences in development or sensitivity by biological sex and socioeconomic
factors. Given past findings associating COVID-19 stay-at-home orders and prematurity or potential
low birth weight (45), we further included these birth outcomes as additional predictors,
Finally, we also tested the interaction between the PANDEMIC and SES and Biological Sex terms to
+β5 Bir thweightj + β6Gestationj + β7SESj xPA NDEMICj,i + β8 BiologicalSexj xPA NDEMICj,i
[5]
The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) (46) was calculated for each model as used as a metric of
parsimony. We then examined the significance level of each model parameter, specifically the PAN-
DEMIC term, which denotes a potentially significant difference in pre-and during pandemic scores, in
Recognizing that newborns and young infants may be more susceptible to pandemic-related stresses,
we sought to specifically investigate the COVID-19 environmental changes on children born since the
beginning of the pandemic and lock-down guidelines. Specifically, we performed the same modeling
as described above (Eqns. 1-5) on a subset of data that included infants 0-16months of age born be-
fore (n=388) and during the pandemic (n=137). (Table 1, Supplemental Figure 1).
In the absence of direct SARS-CoV-2 infection, environmental exposures associated with the COVID-
19 pandemic can affect the developing infant and child through multiple pathways. Maternal stress
throughout pregnancy is one such mechanism (47, 48). Since 2017, pregnant individuals and mothers
have completed the PSS alongside their child’s neurocognitive assessment visit.
We investigated the impact of stress by modifying the most parsimonious model identified from the
above analysis by adding PSS as an additional predictor, as well as by replacing the PANDEMIC term
+β5 Bir thweightj + β6Gestationj + β7SESj xPA NDEMICj,i + β8 BiologicalSexj xPA NDEMICj,i
or
Since the PSS data has only been collected since 2017, data for this analysis was restricted to 247
RESULTS
Yearly birthweight, gestational period, maternal education, and maternal PSS scores are visually plot-
ted in Supplemental Figure 2 and show no significant differences in mean birth weight, gestation,
maternal education, or stress profiles of the families and children assessed in 2020/2021 compared
Mean ELC, VDQ, and NVDQ scores for each year from 2011 to 2021 are shown in Figure. 1 for (a) all
children between 0-3 years of age; and (b) for the subcohort of infants 0-16months of age.
In infants and toddlers (Fig. 1a) mean ELC values from 2011 to 2019 ranged from 95 to 107.3 with
standard deviations ranging from 15.2 to 19.7 - in alignment with the expected mean of 100 and stan-
dard deviation of 15. Controlling for differences in age and maternal education via an ANCOVA (Table
2), we found inconsistent significant differences in mean ELC scores between 2011-2019 and the sec-
ond half of 2020, but consistent and significant (p<0.05) reductions between 2011-2019 and 2021.
Similar results were found for VDQ and NVDQ. Most differences between 2011-2019 and 2021 re-
mained significant even after strict Bonferonni correction for the 30 tests (corrected p-value < 0.002).
Effect sizes (Cohen’s f2) for significant differences are listed in the table and range from small (0.05) to
large (0.4). The largest effect sizes were noted in the comparisons to the 2021 cognitive values.
Focussing on infants born before and during the pandemic (Fig. 1b), we found similar reductions in
performance in 2021 (mean ELC, VDQ, and NVDQ scores of 83.1+/-14.1, 75.5+/-24.1, and
91.1+/-24.1 compared to 2011-2019 (Table 3). However, not all comparisons remained significant after
correction for the multiple comparisons. Similar effect sizes were noted as found in the larger cohort,
Results from our series of mixed-model analyses are summarized in Table 4 (and Supplemental Ta-
bles 1 and 2) and reinforce the ANCOVA findings. For each composite score, the most parsimonious
model included child age, SES, child biological sex, birth weight, gestation period, and the PANDEMIC
tern, as well as interaction terms of PANDEMIC x biological sex and PANDEMIC x SES (e.g., Eqn.
[5]).
We found mean ELC, VDQ, and VDQ scores were significantly reduced by >20 points during the pan-
demic (or almost two full standard deviations, p < 0.01), with higher maternal education, larger birth
weight, and longer gestation duration being protective. Effect size for PANDEMIC term was medium to
low, with a f2 of 0.73 for ELC , 0.06 for VDQ, and 0.04 for NVDQ.
Performing this analysis in just the infants, we found the same results. Infants born since the begin-
ning of the pandemic exhibit significantly lower cognitive functioning (ELC, VDQ, and NVDQ) com-
pared to infants born over the preceding decade. Gestation, PANDEMIC, and PANDEMIC x SES were
also found to be significant predictors across all three main cognitive domains, with increased SES
(maternal education) being protective. Again, we found low-to-medium effect size for the PANDEMIC
term, ranging from 0.089 for ELC, 0.048 for VDQ, and 0.52 for NVDQ.
One of the hypothesized mechanisms by which the pandemic environment may influence neurodevel-
opment is through increased maternal stress, both during and following pregnancy. In testing this by
either adding the recorded PSS scores to our parsimonious model or including it in place of the PAN-
DEMIC term.
We found that model [6], which included PSS as an additional variable to the general model identified
in the above analysis, provided a more parsimonious fit. However, PSS was not a significant predictor
DISCUSSION
Children are inherently shaped by the environment in which they learn, grow, and play. Over the past
20 months, that environment has been fundamentally altered for many children. While the short and
long-term neurodevelopmental impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are not yet well understood in in-
fants and young children (49), emerging reports are suggestive of reduced motor and communication
skills (38). Results from this study add to this literature and are in agreement with these past studies.
We find that verbal, non-verbal, and overall cognitive scores in children under 3 years of age are sig-
nificantly lower than over the past decade with this difference amplified in infants <16-months of age
and born since the beginning of the pandemic. As the pregnant individuals and children included in
this study reported no symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection or had positive antibody or RT-PCR test
results, this suggests that observed effects are related to environmental factors rather than due to di-
rect effects of infection. However, we did not perform independent antibody testing to confirm past in-
fection status.
Longitudinal modeling of children 0-3 years of age revealed positive associations between child cogni-
tive performance and maternal education, gestation duration, and birth weight; and negative associa-
tions with male biological sex. In addition, we found a positive association between cognitive scores
and the interaction of maternal education x PANDEMIC. Socioeconomic characteristics such as mater-
ial education have well-known associations with child health and cognitive development and may be
related to differences in the ability to provide adequate nutrition, supportive parenting, and stimulating
and engaging environments. That increased maternal education was found to buffer the negative ef-
fects of the pandemic may be related to these families being able to provide continued stability (lower
food and/or housing insecurity) and interactive stimulation (e.g., reading and play). In contrast, many
lower-income families have dealt with job loss and financial insecurity that has necessitated taking on
additional work and reducing the available family time and/or ability to provide quality daycare. Addi-
tional investigation of changes in food and housing insecurity, shifts in daycare, and employment sta-
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tus throughout the pandemic is needed to understand these individual factors but was unavailable
here.
Other significant factors identified throughout our analysis were gestation length and infant birth
weight. While this aligns with past studies of infant birth outcomes and subsequent development, most
have focused on premature and low birth weight infants - infants excluded from our analysis. However,
even amongst healthy birthweight infants, there is evidence that increased birth weight and later math
and language processing (50). Similarly, even within children born full-term, later infant and children
neurocognitive outcomes have been shown to improve for each week of gestation past 37 weeks, with
In contrast, we found that males have overall lower neurodevelopment. The reason for this finding in
our cohort is unclear, however, past analysis of male and female cognitive development using the
MSEL has shown that in the context of children of mothers with depression, females performed better
than males and improved more quickly between 6 and 18-months of age (52), overlapping with the
One hypothesized mechanism by which the environment may affect neurocognitive development is via
maternal pre-and postnatal stress. However, in contrast to other studies of mothers during the pan-
demic, such as the MOM-COPE study and a large online survey of pregnant individuals at the begin-
ning of the pandemic (53, 36), we did not observe increased maternal stress in our study population,
and it was not a significant predictive factor in our analysis. Two possible explanations for this are 1.
Insensitivity of the PSS tool used to pandemic-specific stress; and 2. A potential selection bias in the
families included in our study. Addressing these explanations, in turn, the PSS is a standardized ten-
item questionnaire that asks about general life stressors and how stressful individuals find their lives.
It, however, does not include specific questions related to health or wellbeing. In contrast, the MOM-
COPE study utilized retrospective data collection using an ad-hoc developed questionnaire focused on
worry and anxiety of COVID-19 infection, pregnancy risk, and their own and their infant’s health (36).
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The online pregnancy survey study by Lebel and colleagues (53) also used a specially developed
questionnaire to gauge maternal concern of the pandemic and its impact on their own and their in-
fant’s health. Thus, it is possible that stress felt by parents and families specific to COVID-19 infection
or complications during pregnancy was not identified on the PSS given its generic and broad nature
A second explanation as to why the stress was not found to be a significant factor is the potential se-
lection bias of the families included in this study and, in particular, those who were assessed during
the pandemic. Unlike many other academic research laboratories across the US, our facility has con-
tinued to operate throughout the pandemic with in-person study visits, with appropriate pre-screening
and masking policies. As our center is located within a clinical setting, parents less concerned about
the pandemic may have been more likely to participate than those with greater concerns. Thus, our
observation that maternal stress (PSS) was not significantly increased may simply reflect the reality
In the absence of stress-related changes, additional factors that may explain our findings are the use
of face masks during testing. Although all study visits were performed in-person, the inability of infants
to see full facial expressions may have eliminated non-verbal cues, muffled instructions, or otherwise
impair the understanding of test questions and instructions. Without direct comparison of performance
in the same children with and without face masks, it is difficult to rule in or out the potential influence of
masks. However, some insight can be gleaned by examining the raw domain scores (Supplemental
Figure 3). Over the first year of a child’s life, the MSEL focuses strongly on non-verbal domains such
as 1. Gross motor control skills: e.g., supporting their head, pushing up on their forearms, rolling over,
and pulling themselves up to standing; 2. Fine motor skills: e.g., holding rings and grasping and reach-
ing for objects; and 3. Visual skills: e.g., fixation and face tracking. Tested verbal skills are also rela-
tively basic, including orienting to sounds, responding to a voice, swallowing, making coos, chuckles,
or laughing sounds, and babbling. For much of the assessment, the examiner is on the floor playing
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with and manipulating the child, and the assessment is not reliant on only verbal cues or instructions.
In examining raw domain scores, we note that overall infants born since the pandemic are most af-
fected in their basic motor and visual receptive skills rather than their expressive and receptive lan-
guage abilities. Given the nature of these affected skills, it seems unlikely that mask-wearing by the
experimenter could be the cause of the reduced scores in late 2020 and 2021. Of note, recent work
using parent-reported development measures reported similar findings of reduced motor development
in 6-month old infants born during the pandemic, further suggesting masks do not underly our ob-
served findings.
Secondary to masks, however, may be the unfamiliarity of infants and toddlers to individuals outside of
their immediate family. Infants may have been distracted in the unfamiliar laboratory setting or suffered
“performance anxiety” in front of the unknown research staff and testers testing strangers even with
their parents nearby. Our research staff and neuropsychologists are highly trained and well versed in
interacting with children across this age group and working with the child and their parents to obtain
Our findings raise important questions. First, do they generalize across the US or are they specific to
the RI population and the cohort investigated? Despite the relatively restricted sample size, particularly
within the infant cohort, we note the high effect sizes in our findings suggest our findings should be
reproducible. Indeed, our results align with other emerging reports from other cohorts that used differ-
ent assessment tools. It is unclear how different state-level responses to the pandemic will affect child
outcomes, for example, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming
that did not issue stay-at-home orders. Second, are observed differences in infant neurocognitive per-
formance since the pandemic temporary, and will they normalize as children grow and return to pre-
pandemic levels of play, interaction, schooling, etc. Unfortunately, the appearance of new virus vari-
ants and continued high infection and hospitalization rates have prolonged the much-anticipated return
to “normal”. Our data, currently, is not sufficient to determine if observed reductions are transient or
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longer-lasting. However, the longitudinal nature of our study will allow us to address this in time as in-
dividuals return. It is clear, however, that young infants and children are being affected now. Programs
such as unemployment insurance, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Special
Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and housing assistance,
may help minimize the impact of the pandemic on the most sensitive of children. In addition, further
research directly exploring aspects of parent-child attachment, interaction, nutrition, food security, and
environmental stimulation is needed to understand the primary causative factors underlying the results
presented here.
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CONCLUSION
The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally altered the child health landscape, with families living in
strikingly different economic, psychosocial, and educational environments than what was present just
18 months ago. Against this environmental backdrop, unanswered questions remain regarding the im-
pact of the work-from-home, shelter-in-place, and other public health policies that have limited social
interaction and typical childhood experiences on early child neurodevelopment. In this work, we pro-
vide early evidence suggestive of significant reductions in attained cognitive function and performance
in children born over the past 18 months during the pandemic. While maternal education appears to
mitigate against the negative consequences of the pandemic, the primary factors underlying this ob-
servation remain unclear. Understanding these factors is critical to helping ensure affected children
rebound as the pandemic winds down and they re-enter daycares and schools; as well as implement-
ing additional public health and educational policies that address the most affected of children, particu-
DATA SHARING
All data acquired and presented here is available upon request to the authors.
Funding for this study was provided by the National Institutes of Health (SCD). Neither funder played
any role in the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of the data, or was involved in the drafting or ap-
CONTRIBUTOR ROLES
All listed authors were involved in the study design, data acquisition, and analysis, drafting and revis-
ing this manuscript, and providing final and accountable approval for its contents. SCD and DV verify
FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES
The authors report no significant financial conflicts of interest with respect to the subject matter of this
manuscript.
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(which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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Tables Legends
Table 1. Group demographics for each child cohort, including 1. All 700 children 3-months through 3-
years of age tested over the past decade; 2. A subset of 247 children from group (1) with PSS data;
and 3. 525 infants 0 to16-months of age born before and during the pandemic We also include the re-
sults of chi-square and t-test comparisons between the before and during pandemic infant groups.
Table 2. Results of the yearly pairwise comparisons (ANCOVA) in overall, verbal, and non-verbal cog-
nitive scores in all children 0 to 3 years of age. We note near consistent significant reductions in ELC,
VDQ, and NVDQ measures in 2021 compared to the past decade (even correcting for multiple com-
parisons p < 0,002), with less consistent differences in 2020. Effect sizes for significant differences
Table 3. Results of the yearly pairwise comparisons (ANCOVA) in overall, verbal, and non-verbal cog-
nitive scores in infants 0 to 16-months of age. We note near consistent significant reductions in ELC,
VDQ, and NVDQ measures in 2020 and 2021 compared to the past decade. Effect sizes for significant
Table 4. Summary outcomes from our general linear mixed-effects models. In all cases the model in-
cluding child age, SES, child biological sex, gestation period, birth weight, and the PANDEMIC, PAN-
DEMIC x child biological sex interaction, and PANDEMIC x SES interaction was found to be the most
parsimonious. Across all measures in children 0-3 years of age we note that the PANDEMIC term was
a significant negative factors, with SES alone and SES x PANDEMIC being significant or trending to-
wards significance. For infants, the PANDEMIC term was a significant negative factor, with increased
gestation period and SES x PANDEMIC being a significant positive or protective factor. We also
medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261846; this version posted August 16, 2022. The copyright holder for this preprint
(which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
present results of analysis investigating the impact of maternal stress (PSS), which we found to be a
non-significant predictor.
Supplemental Table 1. Complete results from our step-wise general linear mixed-effect model analy-
Supplemental Table 2. Complete results from our step-wise general linear mixed-effect model analy-
Supplemental Table 3. Complete results from our general linear mixed-effect model analysis examin-
Figure Legends
Figure 1. Visual comparison of yearly mean MSEL ELC, VDQ, and NVDQ composite scores for (top)
all children 0 to 3 years of age in the cohort; and (bottom) infants 0 to 16 months of age born before or
during the pandemic. In each panel, the black line represents the expected mean (100) and the grey
region denotes the expected standard deviation (15). For 2020 we provide 2 measures, one for Jan-
uary 1 to April 1, 2020, and the second from April 2 to December 30, 2020. The box denotes measures
obtained during the pandemic since April 1, 2020. In both child cohorts, we observe general decreases
Supplemental Figure 1. Visual overview of all child study visits used in each set of analysis. (a) All
children from 0 to 3 years of age; (b) Infants born prior to (blue) or during (red) the pandemic.
Supplemental Figure 2. Plots of the mean gestation period, birth weight, maternal education, and
maternal perceived stress for our child sample that were measured each year.
Supplemental Figure 3. Raw MSEL domain scores in 0 to 16-month-old infants born before the pan-
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Table 1
Hispanic 259 37 58 20
Race 0.92
Not Hispanic 441 210 330 117
African American /
43 25 40 17
Black
Ethnicity Asian 0.13
5 4 2 1
Birth Weight (lbs) 7.3 (1.3) 7.3 (1.3) 7.25 (0.8) 7.37 (1.1) 0.17
Birth Outcomes
Gestation (weeks) 38 (3.7) 39 (1.8) 39 (1.2) 39 (1.3) >0.8
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Table 2
n
ReferenceYear 2020 ELC f2 2020 VDQ f2 2020 NVDQ f2 2021 ELC f2 2021 VDQ f2 2021 NVDQ f2
110
2011 0.002 0.057 <0.001 0.051 0.012 0.036 <0.001 0.164 <0.001 0.123 <0.001 0.138
178
2012 0.366 0.003 0.255 0.005 0.573 0.001 <0.001 0.049 <0.001 0.047 <0.001 0.042
147
2013 <0.001 0.148 <0.001 0.137 <0.001 0.051 <0.001 0.316 <0.001 0.240 <0.001 0.202
82
2014 <0.001 0.276 <0.001 0.192 <0.001 0.151 <0.001 0.406 <0.001 0.273 <0.001 0.360
76
2015 <0.001 0.185 <0.001 0.128 <0.001 0.087 <0.001 0.343 <0.001 0.225 <0.001 0.248
66
2016 <0.001 0.142 0.054 0.026 <0.001 0.118 <0.001 0.287 <0.001 0.085 <0.001 0.300
62
2017 <0.001 0.053 0.025 0.038 0.154 0.015 <0.001 0.169 <0.001 0.111 <0.001 0.108
141
2018 0.016 0.031 0.015 0.031 0.164 0.010 <0.001 0.116 <0.001 0.097 <0.001 0.076
144
2019 <0.001 0.077 <0.001 0.056 0.010 0.032 <0.001 0.162 <0.001 0.103 <0.001 0.113
39
2020a <0.001 0.065 <0.001 0.088 <0.001 0.762 <0.001 0.110 <0.001 0.092 <0.001 0.085
medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261846; this version posted August 16, 2022. The copyright holder for this preprint
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Table 3
ReferenceYearn 2020 ELC f2 2020 VDQ f2 2020 NVDQ f2 2021 ELC f2 2021 VDQ f2 2021 NVDQ f2
2014 58 <0.001 0.273 <0.001 0.180 <0.001 0.146 <0.001 0.741 <0.001 0.588 <0.001 0.491
2016 37 <0.001 0.251 <0.001 0.186 <0.001 0.946 <0.001 0.346 <0.001 0.689
0.070 0.040
2017 13 0.447 0.010 0.296 0.020 0.399 0.013 0.004 0.235 0.005 0.218 0.010 0.182
2020a 31 <0.001 0.035 <0.001 0.076 <0.001 0.528 0.022 0.093 0.004 0.147 0.028 0.085
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Table 4
Child Age 0.004 0.001 0.006 <0.001 -0.007 <0.001 0.005 0.091 -0.01 0.019 0.005 0.261
PANDEMIC -26.129 <0.001 -33.531 0.001 -23.985 0.007 -33.140 0.016 -20.951 0.268 -45.702 0.032
SES 2.646 <0.001 4.367 <0.001 4.518 <0.001 2.139 0.045 3.732 0.016 2.85 0.092
Male -4.363 <0.001 -6.264 <0.001 -4.931 <0.001 -5.632 0.028 -2.788 0.441 -10.346 0.01
Gestation 0.156 0.262 0.191 0.278 0.221 0.140 2.327 0.004 1.874 0.077 0.945 0.417
Birth Weight 3.191 <0.001 3.386 <0.001 3.128 <0.001 1.368 0.244 1.832 0.257 2.777 0.118
Male x PANDEM-
-2.996 0.280 -5.847 0.140 -0.877 0.796 -0.894 0.864 -7.125 0.32 4.142 0.607
IC
SES x PANDEMIC 3.092 0.014 3.942 0.026 2.547 0.093 3.547 0.133 1.853 0.57 3.79 0.302
Infants 0-14
Months Born And ELC VDQ NVDQ
During
Esti- Esti- Esti-
Term pValue pValue pValue
mate mate mate
Intercept 3.260 0.800 14.529 0.521 -13.048 0.511
Figure 1.
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Supplemental Table 1
Term Estimate pValue Estimate pValue Estimate pValue Estimate pValue Estimate pValue
Intercept 95.581 <0.001 77.655 <0.001 79.979 <0.001 51.591 <0.001 54.554 <0.001
Child Age 0.004 0.005 0.003 0.011 0.004 0.006 0.004 0.001 0.004 <0.001
PANDEMIC -10.604 <0.001 -10.591 <0.001 -10.797 <0.001 -10.811 <0.001 -26.129 <0.001
SES 3.331 <0.001 3.353 <0.001 3.052 <0.001 2.646 <0.001
Male -4.476 <0.001 -4.849 <0.001 -4.363 <0.001
Gestation 0.181 0.194 0.156 0.262
Birth Weight 3.193 <0.001 3.191 <0.001
Male x PANDEMIC -2.996 0.280
SES x PANDEMIC 3.092 0.014
Supplemental Table 2
Supplemental Table 3
Supplemental Figure 1
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Supplemental Figure 2
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Supplemental Figure 3