Decision Science For Future Earth

Tetsukazu Yahara Editor
Decision Science
for Future Earth
Theory and Practice
Decision Science for Future Earth
Tetsukazu Yahara
Editor
Decision Science for Future

Earth
Theory and Practice
Editor
Tetsukazu Yahara
The Institute of Decision Science for a
Sustainable Society (IDS3)
Kyushu University
Fukuoka, Fukuoka, Japan
ISBN 978-981-15-8631-6 ISBN 978-981-15-8632-3 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3
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Preface
We are now at a major turning point in human history, at least in the following three
points: First, with the progress of globalization, the connection between local social-
ecological systems around the world has strengthened more than ever, and the world
in which we live is being integrated into one earth system. We first noticed this
connection due to global climate change, eventually biodiversity loss also occurred
within the global linkage, and now, through the pandemic of COVID-19, we are
keenly aware that local social-ecological systems around the world are strongly
connected to each other. Second, the human population, which has continued to
grow over the last 60,000 years, has finally slowed significantly, and it is projected
that population decline will begin in many countries by 2050. In some countries,
including Japan, the population has already begun to decline, and various new
challenges for sustainable social growth are emerging. Third, a vast amount of
knowledge that anyone can access on the Internet has been accumulated, and online
teaching materials have been enriched. Consequently, the methods of education,
research, and innovation are rapidly changing to more open ones using the Internet.
The pandemic of COVID-19 provides an opportunity to accelerate this trend.
Conversely, SNS with some leaders from different countries often spreads inaccurate
information instantly and can have a major impact on the decision-making of
citizens and governments. We are now faced with the difficult problem of how to
select reliable knowledge from a vast amount of information and how to make good
decisions. This book has been edited to present new scientific directions that
contribute to such decision-making.
This book was created through a graduate school education reform program
called “Kyushu University Graduate Education and Research Training Program in
Decision Science for a Sustainable Society” (2013–2019), which was adopted by the
all-round type of the Program for Leading Graduate Schools promoted by the Japan
Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). The JSPS Program for Leading
Graduate Schools was implemented to train sophisticated graduate students who
will lead societies across the boundaries of various disciplines and contribute to
solving serious problems that threaten the sustainability of human societies. In the
v
vi Preface
all-round type program, JSPS called for training graduate students in a wide range of
areas covering humanities, social sciences, life sciences, and other natural sciences
and engineering. At the request of former Kyushu University President Setsuo
Arikawa, we designed the “Kyushu University Graduate Education and Research
Training Program in Decision Science for a Sustainable Society” with the intention
of developing decision science as an all-round type new science. In 2013, when this
program was designed, the international research program Future Earth was
established. As one of the members of the DIVERSITAS Science Committee, I
was involved in a discussion on the concept design of Future Earth, a program whose
goal is to integrate natural and social sciences related to global environmental issues
into one earth system science. As a reform of graduate school education that
contributes to this goal, we designed the course of “Kyushu University Graduate
Education and Research Training Program in Decision Science for a Sustainable
Society” to train graduate students through transdisciplinary research based on
co-design/co-production with stakeholders that was highlighted by Future Earth. I
myself have experienced the process of forming consensus through persistent
discussions with various stakeholders and promoting the resolution of social issues
at various sites of biodiversity conservation. We believe that gaining this kind of
experience is extremely important in developing the next generation of scientists
who will tackle social issues such as biodiversity conservation, recovery from
disaster, public health, and local community development. Yukihiro Shimatani of
river engineering, Naoki Nakajima of telemedicine, Kaoru Izumi of public admin-
istration, myself, and others shared this idea and established five modules of
environment, disaster, health, governance, and human decision-making in a new
graduate education program. This proposal was adopted in 2013 by the JSPS
Program of Leading Graduate Schools. After that, at Kyushu University, we
implemented the graduate education and research training program in decision
science for a sustainable society as a minor course that all graduate courses can
take. The Institute of Decision Science for a Sustainable Society of Kyushu Univer-
sity was formed as an organization to implement this program.
In 2015, a fund of Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) to promote the
Future Earth Initiative was launched, and the research proposal from the Institute of
Decision Science for a Sustainable Society of Kyushu University was adopted by
JST for feasibility research of this initiative. Then, in September 2016, it was
adopted for full-scale research, and for three years until August 2019, a project
called “A Transdisciplinary Research by Networking Solution-Oriented Interdisci-
plinary Sciences of Environment, Disaster, Health, Governance and Human Coop-
eration” was implemented. Whereas the JSPS Program of Leading Graduate Schools
is a graduate school education reform project, the JST Future Earth Initiative
Promotion Project was aimed at conducting research and development that would
significantly contribute to Future Earth. In this research project, transdisciplinary
research was conducted by staff of the Institute of Decision Science for a Sustainable
Society of Kyushu University while educating and collaborating with graduate
students in various fields who participate in the graduate education and research
Preface vii
training program in decision science for a sustainable society. This book has been
edited based on the results of this research project.
Future Earth’s vision of building a problem-solving-oriented earth system science
through transdisciplinary research based on co-design/co-production with various
stakeholders is a major challenge in modern science. With the intention of making a
significant contribution to this challenge, we have continued our efforts to develop a
transdisciplinary science focused on decision-making. All social problems are the
result of human decision-making, and our decision-making holds the key to solving
these problems. It is, however, not easy to answer the question of how we can make
good decisions. Once the norms and indicators for choosing options are agreed upon,
it may be possible to find an optimal solution through an optimization model that
considers costs, risks, and benefits. However, since the norms of decision depend on
values, a decision may be good for some but bad for others. For such issues that are
influenced by values, it is difficult to obtain an “optimal” solution based solely on
objective evidence. Rather, that decision can only be made through agreements and
compromises that adjust for differences in values. Then, how can a science-based
approach contribute to this difficult decision-making problem?
This book develops theoretical considerations for this question in three chapters.
Chapter 1 of Part 1 provides conceptual and systematic consideration of decision
science based on human evolutionary biology. Since the cognitive system behind
human decision-making is a product of evolution, its evolutionary biological under-
standing is thought to hold the key to developing decision science. As a product of
this consideration, we propose co-design guidelines that take into account human
cognitive biases created by evolution. In Chap. 2 of Part 2, based on a comparison of
the cases of transdisciplinary research described in Chaps. 3–6, theoretical consid-
eration is given to the relationship between science/scientists and society. Future
Earth depends on the idea that science meets and needs society. Chapter 2 examines
this premise itself and considers the grounds for the usefulness, effectiveness, and
acceptance of science or scientific methods for society. Based on this consideration
and also our experience in various cases, we propose indicators to evaluate the
process of co-design/co-production in transdisciplinary research. In Chap. 7 at the
beginning of Part 3 on natural resource management, a mathematical model is used
to theoretically consider the strategy of natural resource management in which the
dynamics of ecosystems and human decision-making influence each other. Although
it is difficult to find an optimal solution to a value-sensitive problem, it is possible to
model the dynamics of human decision-making and predict what consequences
individual decisions will have under the interaction with ecosystems. This prediction
may help build a consensus on options between stakeholders with different values.
In addition to these theoretical considerations, the results of case studies on public
health, disaster prevention, land use, and community development are presented in
Part 2, the results on natural resource management are presented in Part 3, and the
results on post-earthquake reconstruction processes are presented in Part 4. In April
2016, we experienced a large earthquake in Kyushu. How we can contribute to the
recovery process from this earthquake has become a new issue in our problem-
solving research project as well as in our graduate education reform activity.
viii Preface
The main feature of our project is that researchers from various fields (including
natural sciences and social sciences) related to the five major themes of environment,
disasters, health, governance, and human decision-making have been involved for
six years since 2014. This book is the result of collaborative research through mutual
involvement in social problem-solving, mutual consensus formation, and collabora-
tion with various stakeholders on co-design/co-production efforts. These achieve-
ments include a significant contribution to the integration of natural and social
sciences that Future Earth aims for. However, some challenges remain. Three
theoretical chapters, Chapter 1 from the perspective of evolutionary biology,
Chap. 2 from the perspective of social science, and Chap. 7 based on the mathemat-
ical theory of coupled social-ecological dynamics, are still rather separated. Efforts
for integrating these theoretical considerations have just begun. In addition, meta-
analysis of various case studies is also just beginning. However, we believe that the
theoretical considerations and case studies presented in this book have resulted in a
solid foundation for developing decision science that contributes to the creation of a
sustainable society.
In the Kyushu University Graduate Education and Research Training Program in
Decision Science for a Sustainable Society, Salvatore Arico (UNESCO), Anantha
Duraiappah (UNESCO MGIEP), Thomas Elmqvist (Stockholm Resilience Centre),
Anne Larigauderie (IPBES), Simon Levin (Princeton University), Harold Mooney
(Stanford University), and Hugh Possingham (University of Queensland) are inter-
national advisory board members. We thank them for their warm encouragement and
professional advice for our efforts to reform postgraduate education and develop
transdisciplinary research. The graduate school education reform activity was
funded by the JSPS Program of Leading Graduate Schools, and the transdisciplinary
research was funded by the JST Future Earth Initiative Promotion Project. In
addition, we received financial support from Kyushu University through these pro-
jects. We would like to thank former President Setsuo Arikawa, President Chiharu
Kubo, and Director Hiroto Yasuura for their continuous encouragement of our
efforts.
Fukuoka, Japan Tetsukazu Yahara

Contents
Part I The Conceptual Framework of Decision Science for

a Sustainable Society
1 Decision Science for Future Earth: A Conceptual Framework . . . . . 3
Tetsukazu Yahara, Wataru Tanaka, Yukako Inoue, Jounghun Lee,
Kun Qian, Firouzeh Javadi, Nariaki Onda, Fumihiko Yokota,
Kumi Eguchi, Mariko Nishikitani, Kimiyo Kikuchi,
Nobuyoshi Kawasaki, Yukyong Jeong, Jun’ichiro Ide, Tetsuji Ota,
Takahiro Fujiwara, Tadatsugu Hosoya, Yuichi Kano,
Megumi Sugimoto, Ashir Ahmed, Yukihiro Shimatani,
Shota Tokunaga, Ai Nagahama, Michikazu Hiramatsu,
and Takahiro Murakami
Part II Lessons Learned from Trans-Disciplinary Studies in Local

Communities
2 How Can We Develop a Co-design, Co-production, and Co-delivery
Process Toward a Sustainable Local Society? Comparative Study
on Transdisciplinary Research Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Yasunori Hanamatsu, Takahiro Fujiwara, Nariaki Onda, Tatsuro Sato,
Tomomi Yamashita, and Fumihiko Yokota
3 Co-design, Co-production, and Co-evaluation Processes
for a Mobile Health Check-Up Research Project in Jaipur,
India: A Case Study of the Portable Health Clinic, 2016–2020 . . . . 93
Fumihiko Yokota, Manish Biyani, Rafiqul Islam, Ashir Ahmed,
Mariko Nishikitani, Kimiyo Kikuchi, Rieko Izukura,
Yasunobu Nohara, and Naoki Nakashima
4 Sustainability of Micro Hydropower Generation in a Traditional
Community of Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Tatsuro Sato and Jun’ichiro Ide
ix
x Contents
5 Conflict of Legitimacy Over Tropical Forest Lands: Lessons for

Collaboration from the Case of Industrial Tree Plantation in
Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Takahiro Fujiwara and Nariaki Onda
6 Sustainable Community Co-development Through Collaboration
of Science and Society: Comparison of Success and Failure Cases
on Tsushima Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Yasunori Hanamatsu, Tomomi Yamashita, and Shota Tokunaga
Part III Sustainable Natural Resource Management: Theory and

Practice
7 Theoretical Models as a Tool to Derive Management Strategies
for Sustainable Natural Resource Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Joung-Hun Lee
8 Environmental Concerns of the Pulp and Paper Industry:
Focusing on Household and Sanitary Paper Products . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Kun Qian
9 Contribution of Community-Based Ecotourism to Forest
Conservation and Local Livelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Tetsuji Ota, Pichdara Lonn, and Nobuya Mizoue
Part IV Co-designs in a Disaster Recovery Process: Case Studies

in the Area Affected by the Kumamoto Earthquake
10 Oral Care that Supports Healthy Lives as a Case Study of the
Kumamoto Earthquake . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Michikazu Hiramatsu and Hideto Ohta
11 Experiences of University Student Volunteer Activities
to Revitalize the Area Affected by the Kumamoto Earthquake . . . . 219
Yukyong Jeong, Michikazu Hiramatsu, and Kun Qian
12 Attempt to Develop High-Value Rice in the Shimojin District,
Mashiki Town, Kumamoto Prefecture: Transition Into
Sustainable Local Community Using Disaster Recovery from
the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes as a Branding Strategy . . . . . . . . 233
Wataru Tanaka and Rei Itsukushima
Contents xi
Correction to: Decision Science for Future Earth: A Conceptual

Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C1
Tetsukazu Yahara, Wataru Tanaka, Yukako Inoue, Jounghun Lee, Kun
Qian, Firouzeh Javadi, Nariaki Onda, Fumihiko Yokota, Kumi Eguchi,
Mariko Nishikitani, Kimiyo Kikuchi, Nobuyoshi Kawasaki, Yukyong
Jeong, Jun’ichiro Ide, Tetsuji Ota, Takahiro Fujiwara, Tadatsugu Hosoya,
Yuichi Kano, Megumi Sugimoto, Ashir Ahmed, Yukihiro Shimatani,
Shota Tokunaga, Ai Nagahama, Michikazu Hiramatsu,
and Takahiro Murakami
Part I
The Conceptual Framework of Decision
Science for a Sustainable Society
Chapter 1
Decision Science for Future Earth: A
Conceptual Framework

Kun Qian, Firouzeh Javadi, Nariaki Onda, Fumihiko Yokota, Kumi Eguchi,
Mariko Nishikitani, Kimiyo Kikuchi, Nobuyoshi Kawasaki, Yukyong Jeong,
Jun’ichiro Ide, Tetsuji Ota, Takahiro Fujiwara, Tadatsugu Hosoya,
Shota Tokunaga, Ai Nagahama, Michikazu Hiramatsu, and
Takahiro Murakami
The original version of this chapter was revised. Dr. Kawasaki’s forename has been updated. A
corrections to this chapter can be found at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_13
T. Yahara (*)
Institute of Decision Science for a Sustainable Society, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
Department of Biology, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
Kyushu Open University, Fukuoka, Japan
W. Tanaka
Faculty of Engineering, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
Y. Inoue
Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology, Kochi, Japan
J. Lee
Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
K. Qian · F. Javadi · F. Yokota · K. Eguchi · Y. Jeong · T. Hosoya · Y. Kano · M. Hiramatsu ·
T. Murakami
N. Onda
Tohoku Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Morioka, Japan
M. Nishikitani
Faculty of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
© The Author(s) 2021, corrected publication 2021 3

T. Yahara (ed.), Decision Science for Future Earth,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_1
4 T. Yahara et al.
Abstract The purpose of this chapter is to review progress in our understanding of

human behavior and decision-making relevant to future earth research agenda, and
propose Decision Science as a hub of knowledge networks connecting disciplinary
and interdisciplinary sciences with the practice of problem-solving. This review is
composed of four sections. First, we describe the conceptual framework of “decision
science for a sustainable society” and argue that evolutionary biology of the human
nature is key to construct this framework. Second, we review how our group
decision-making often fails due to various cognitive biases and argue that partici-
patory approaches of co-design and co-production do not guarantee reasonable
decision-making. Third, we review success stories of problem-solving in local
communities and consider how we can connect those successes in local communities
to successful national and global decision-making. Fourth, learning from both
failures and successes, we argue that the adaptive learning of society is a process
enabling us to transform our society toward a sustainable future. We review some
positive global trends toward sustainability and consider the cognitive processes and
behavioral mechanisms behind those trends that would provide clues for finding
successful ways to transform our society.
Keywords Adaptive learning · Adaptive comanagement · Cognitive biases ·

Evolution · Social transformation · Trans-disciplinary science
K. Kikuchi
Faculty of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
N. Kawasaki
Faculty of Regional Design and Development, University of Nagasaki, Nagasaki, Japan
J. Ide
Department of Applied Chemistry and Bioscience, Chitose Institute of Science and Technology,
Chitose, Japan
T. Ota · T. Fujiwara
Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
M. Sugimoto
Office for Gender Equality, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
A. Ahmed
Graduate School of Information Science and Electrical Engineering, Kyushu University,
Fukuoka, Japan
Y. Shimatani
Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
S. Tokunaga
JMA Research Institute Inc., Tokyo, Japan
A. Nagahama
Graduate School of Systems Life Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
1 Decision Science for Future Earth: A Conceptual Framework 5
1 Introduction
Since the Homo sapiens started their migration from Africa to other continents
around 60,000 years ago (Ingman et al. 2000), our population has continuously
increased until now (Hawks et al. 2007). The increasing pressure on the environment
has resulted in global environmental problems such as climate change, eutrophica-
tion, ocean acidification, and biodiversity loss (Diamond 2005; Rockström et al.
2009; Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno 2010; Hooper et al. 2012). Considering evidence
suggesting that mankind’s growing influence on the environment may depart sig-
nificantly from the natural behavior of the planetary environment, the term
“Anthropocene” was proposed to characterize the present human-dominated geo-
logical epoch, following the Holocene (Crutzen 2002). In this Anthropocene, human
communities are facing an array of challenges called Grand Challenges (Reid et al.
2010) that will have a serious influence on human well-being and the sustainability
of the environment. Addressing these major challenges, an internationally coordi-
nated research program, Future Earth, was launched in 2013 by integrating three
environmental change research programs: IGBP, IHDP, and DIVERSITAS (Future
Earth 2013; Leemans 2016). Subsequently, the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), including goals for ending poverty, protecting the planet, and ensuring
prosperity for all people, were adopted at the UN Sustainable Development Summit
in 2015 (UN 2015). Future Earth is expected to play a leading role in developing
science to support the achievement of SDGs.
In its Initial Design document, Future Earth (2013) identified three highly aggre-
gated research themes covering both natural and social sciences: dynamic planet,
global development, and transition to global sustainability. The organization pro-
posed new approaches to co-designing and co-producing solution-oriented science,
knowledge, and innovation for global sustainable development. These proposals are
based on the concept of transdisciplinary science that emphasizes the importance of
co-design with stakeholders (Mauser et al. 2013). However, the development of the
Future Earth research platform initially created many tensions between the interdis-
ciplinary activities of earlier environmental change research programs and the
leadership of the highly aggregated agenda, and the transdisciplinary approach of
the Future Earth transition team, the funders, and the sponsors—including ICSU/
ISSC (Leemans 2016). Those tensions were resolved by accepting all the previous
projects of the global change programs under the three-themed research platform of
Future Earth, but further efforts are needed to fill the gap between the researchers in
the original international global change programs and the new transdisciplinary
research agenda of Future Earth. In particular, the transdisciplinary research agenda
remains highly conceptual, and the following key questions remain open for further
exploration and discussion:
1. How can we successfully co-design our projects with various conflicts of interest?
2. How can we develop solution-oriented trans-disciplinary science by integrating
natural and social sciences?
3. How can we transform our society for a sustainable future?
6 T. Yahara et al.
Here, we propose that Decision Science, an integrative science of human behav-

ior and decision-making, is key to answering those questions, although it is not the
only key, and other possibilities are of course worthy to be considered. Every social
problem is a consequence of human behavior and decision-making. The need to
consider human behavior and decision-making in the development of Future Earth is
already identified in the Strategic Agenda 2014 (Future Earth 2014) in which 62 key
research priorities are listed as a result of consultation processes with global envi-
ronmental change research communities and stakeholders as well as an open online
survey. Among those priorities, the following key questions on human behavior and
decision-making are clearly addressed under the three-themed research framework
of Future Earth.
• Dynamic planet: How can computational models of human individual and col-
lective behavior be integrated into Earth system models of global environmental
change? What new aspects need to be developed, combining neuroscience,
psychology, anthropology, sociology, and economics? How do such models
alter our understanding of future behaviors, risks, and trade-offs?
• Global development: What are the strengths and weaknesses of different
decision-making approaches for balancing trade-offs inherent in socio-
environmental systems from local to global scales? What are their impacts on
the provision and regulation of ecosystem services?
• Transformation toward sustainability: What is the nature and role of narratives
(particularly around development, futures, justice, risk and disasters, and con-
flicts) in driving human behavior and social change, including decision-making?
In what ways might these narratives influence risk mitigation and inspire trans-
formative action toward sustainability?
To answer those questions, we need to integrate various disciplinary perceptions
of human behavior and decision-making including psychology, anthropology, econ-
omy, sociology, philosophy, and evolutionary biology. Recent efforts for this
integration resulted in the publication of some seminal books, including Kahneman
(2011), Pinker (2011), Haidt (2012), Greene (2013), and Henrich (2017), and many
peer-reviewed papers reviewed in those books. However, this progress has been
mostly neglected in the discussions to develop Future Earth since the proposal of the
Grand Challenges (Reid et al. 2010).
The purpose of this chapter is to review progress in our understanding of human
behavior and decision-making relevant to Future Earth research agenda, and propose
Decision Science as a hub of knowledge networks connecting disciplinary and
interdisciplinary sciences with the practice of problem-solving. This review is
composed of four sections. First, we describe the conceptual framework of “decision
science for a sustainable society” and argue that evolutionary biology of the human
nature is key to construct this framework. Second, we review how our group
decision-making often fails due to various cognitive biases and argue that partici-
patory approaches of co-design and co-production do not guarantee reasonable
decision-making. Based on this understanding of cognitive biases, we propose a
guideline for co-design in transdisciplinary projects of Future Earth. Third, we
review success stories of problem-solving in local communities and consider how
we can connect those successes in local communities to successful national and

global decision-making. Fourth, learning from both failures and successes, we argue
that the adaptive learning of society is a process enabling us to transform our society
toward a sustainable future. From a viewpoint of evolutionary biology, this process
is analogous to the adaptive evolution of organisms and understanding this analogy
provides a key to integrating natural and social sciences toward solution-oriented
studies contributing to a sustainable society. We review some positive global trends
toward sustainability and consider the cognitive processes and behavioral mecha-
nisms behind those trends that would provide clues for finding successful ways to
transform our society.
2 Conceptual Framework of Decision Science

for a Sustainable Society
2.1 Science of IDEA Cycle, an Iterative Process
of Decision-Making and Adaptive Learning
Decision-making is a process of linking scientific knowledge with solutions to social

problems: disciplinary and interdisciplinary sciences such as environmental, disas-
ter, health, and social sciences provide stakeholders with some knowledge-based
options for solving a social problem whereas stakeholders must make a decision on a
particular option to be prioritized and executed (Fig. 1.1). In this decision-making
process, knowledge-based options are usually hypothetical because our knowledge
on a particular social problem such as ecosystem deterioration is always associated
with high level of complexity and uncertainty as well as conflicts of interest
(Matsuda et al. 2005; Ravetz 2006). Thus, to determine which option is “better,”
we need efforts for building consensus or developing compromise among stake-
holders through participatory approaches. This process of decision-making is
influenced not only by objective knowledge but also by the subjective nature of
human cognition that is often largely biased (Kahneman 2011). For managing this
Fig. 1.1 A role of decision Environmental

science, connecting between
Decision Science
Science
Problem Solving
disciplinary and
interdisciplinary sciences Disaster
and problem-solving Science
processes
Health
Science
Social
Science
Other
disciplines
8 T. Yahara et al.
Fig. 1.2 A framework of

IDEA cycle composed of
four phases; idea generation I
(I), design and decision-
Idea
making (D), experimental generation
execution (E), and
assessment of consequences
(A)
A D
Design &
Assessment of
decision-
consequences
making
E
Experimental
execution
decision-making process, we need to deepen our understanding of the human

cognition systems behind various human behaviors that are designed as an outcome
of evolution (Pinker 2011).
Future Earth is trying to fill the gap between science as the active knowledge
producer and society as the passive recipient in the knowledge production process by
promoting a process of co-design and co-production of knowledge (Mauser et al.
2013). We regard this participatory process as a cycle of idea generation (I), design
and decision-making (D), experimental execution (E), and assessment of conse-
quences (A) designated as the IDEA cycle (Fig. 1.2). Decision science for a
sustainable society is trying to deepen our understanding of the IDEA cycle by
considering how we can develop cooperation in each phase of the cycle.
“I” (Idea generation) is a phase where we generate various ideas by framing
problems, understanding the system behind problems, developing hypotheses, and
creating various options. Because many social problems remain unsolved by ordi-
nary thoughts (Ravetz 2006), it is often crucial to discover overlooked ideas that may
be effective for solving problems. Thus, the idea generation process with stake-
holders needs not only scientific idea generation for solving problems but also
so-called design thinking including consideration of the emotional content of the
situation (Simon 1969; Brown and Kātz 2009). In science, an idea generation
process to find the simplest and most likely hypothesis is called abduction (Peirce
1903) that is now a target of intensive studies in computer science (Magnani 2011)
and cognitive science (Thagard 2014). While design thinking is widely used in
business sectors (Brown and Kātz 2009), it is mostly neglected in scientist commu-
nities, including Future Earth; the unpublished thesis by Perderwitz (2017) may be
the only exception. Integration of scientific and design thinking would be helpful in
facilitating participatory processes of co-design and co-production.
“D” (Design and Decision-making) is a phase where we design and select a

specific option from various options developed in the I phase. In scientific research,
this phase corresponds to the process of designing experiments. In environmental
policy-making, cost-benefit analyses have been widely used to find optimal deci-
sions but as linkages of various problems have been recognized, many different
categories of benefits and cost must be evaluated, such as health impacts, property
damage, ecosystem service losses, and other welfare effects (Pearce et al. 2006).
More recently, risk-benefit analyses have been developed and the importance of risk
communication considering various cognitive biases to risks has been widely rec-
ognized (Fischhoff and Kadvany 2011). The conflicts due to different interests and
different allowances of risks would be resolved under the process of Experimental
execution and Assessment of consequences, stated below, if stakeholders could
agree on a particular option. However, consensus building among stakeholders is a
challenging process in many circumstances. To manage conflicts, it is important to
allow many stakeholders to participate in the option design process.
“E” (Experimental execution) is a phase for executing the adopted option with the
collaboration of various stakeholders. In this phase, maintaining cooperation of
community members is essential for success. On the other hand, it is well known
that cooperation in a large community is unstable due to the increase of
non-cooperating members (Dunbar’s number: Dunbar 1993). This problem has been
noticed and categorized in different disciplines as the tragedy of the commons (Hardin
1968), collective action problem (Olson 1965; Sanders 1992), free-rider problem
(Grossman and Hart 1980), and social dilemmas (Axelrod 1984; van Lange et al.
2013). How we can protect the commons and develop cooperation for a sustainable
society by overcoming social dilemmas remains a big question of decision science.
“A” (Assessment of consequences) is a phase where we assess and learn from the
consequences of Experimental execution that often result in unexpected and unfa-
vorable results. Learning from assessments is a process associated with adaptive
management (Holling 1978; Walters 1986; Gunderson and Holling 2002), an iter-
ative process of decision-making now widely adopted in the management of natural
resources and environments in the face of uncertainty. Through this process, we can
accumulate knowledge and improve our capacity for solving problems by “learning
by doing” (Borrini-Feyerabend et al. 2004) or “learning from doing” (Bell and
Morse 2013). In this phase, it is important that we are constantly “adaptive” by
assessing consequences and improving options under the changing conditions.
2.2 Relationship of the IDEA Cycle with Some Previous

Concepts
The concept of the IDEA cycle is based on some preceding ideas. First, IDEA cycle
is a modification of the PDCA or PDSA cycle widely used in the quality manage-
ment initiatives of the mass production industry (Moen and Norman 2009) and
healthcare (Taylor et al. 2013). The PDCA or PDSA cycle has its roots in Shewhart
10 T. Yahara et al.
(1939) who corresponded the three steps in the mass production process (specifica-
tion, production, and inspection) to the steps in the scientific method (making a
hypothesis, carrying out an experiment, and testing the hypothesis), respectively.
Later, Deming (1950) added the fourth step of research and emphasized the impor-
tance of constant rotation of the cycle composed of design (Plan), production (Do),
sales (Check), and research (Action), now called the PDCA cycle. Therefore, while
the PDCA cycle was designed for quality control of mass production, the four steps
correspond to the dynamic process of acquiring scientific knowledge. However, in
the case of participatory or transdisciplinary processes for solving social problems,
we need to clarify the decision context by defining what problem is being addressed,
why it is important, and how it is related to other decisions previously made (the first
step of the structured decision making; see Gregory et al. 2012). This process is
corresponding to the review process in the scientific method and the Introduction
part of the standard structure of scientific papers. In the three steps of the scientific
method modeled by Shewhart (1939), this review process is lacking. In the IDEA
cycle, this process is categorized as the I phase. Following this I phase, the D phase is
placed in the IDEA cycle instead of the P phase of the PDCA cycle. This phase is
named D (Design and Decision-making) in order to emphasize the importance of
experimental design for a countermeasure to be implemented and group decision-
making based on consensus building among various stakeholders. Following this D
phase, the E (Experimental execution) phase is placed instead of the Do phase in the
PDCA cycle. Here, experimental nature of this execution process is emphasized. The
Check and Action phases of the PDCA cycle are merged into the A (Assessment)
phase of the IDEA cycle. The four phases of the IDEA cycle can be related to
Introduction, Material and Methods, Results, and Discussion in the standard struc-
ture of scientific papers.
Second, the IDEA cycle incorporates the idea of adaptive management developed
independently of the PDCA cycle by Holling (1978). Adaptive management is an
iterative approach to environmental impact assessment and management of ecosys-
tems in the real world with many uncertainties, aiming at reducing uncertainty over
time via repeated ecosystem monitoring. It is a learning process to improve manage-
ment in the future by getting new knowledge through monitoring, while trying to
achieve the best short-term outcome based on current knowledge. Holling et al. (2002)
referred to an idea of transformational learning that involves several levels in the
process of adaptive management, but did not use the term adaptive learning. The term
adaptive learning has been used to describe artificial intelligence web-based educa-
tional systems (Brusilovsky 2003), but here we propose to use “adaptive learning” for
describing iterative learning processes in general by including learning through
adaptive management. Reed et al. (2006) used this term to describe a learning process
in which participatory approaches and expert-led methods are integrated to develop
sustainability assessment at local scales. The IDEA cycle as a whole can be viewed as
a process of adaptive learning. This is a kind of selection process similar to the
adaptive evolution of organisms (Ridley 2016) but the similarity and difference
between adaptive learning and adaptive evolution remain to be clarified.
Third, the scheme of the IDEA cycle is partly similar to the conceptual model of
transdisciplinary study developed by Lang et al. (2012) which includes a sequence of
three phases: Phase A of problem framing and team building, Phase B of knowledge
creation, and Phase C of integration and application. Those three phases correspond
to co-design, co-production, and co-dissemination steps proposed for Future Earth
(Mauser et al. 2013). However, neither conceptual models (Lang et al. 2012; Mauser
et al. 2013) specify the decision-making phase. As is explained above, by adopting a
particular option for further steps of experiment and learning (“learning from
doing”), we select a particular option among some hopeful candidates. This is
corresponding to a process of science in which scientists select a particular hypoth-
esis to be tested and design experiments to test it. Because of the high uncertainty, it
is often difficult to determine which hypothesis is most likely. In addition, the most
preferable hypothesis (option) may differ among stakeholders due to differences of
interests, values, and risk perceptions. Thus, decision-making should not solely rely
on the optimization under cost-benefit tradeoffs but consider cognitive processes of
various interests, values, and risk perceptions (Fischhoff and Kadvany 2011). This
decision-making can be made only by building consensus or developing compro-
mise under some trust among stakeholders. On the other hand, it is important to
design the “experiments” well so that the hypothesis can be tested by the results or
consequences (Barnerjee and Dufro 2011).
Fourth, the IDEA cycle is related to the idea of Structured Decision-Making
(SDM; Gregory et al. 2012) in which the decision-making process under different
interests is considered as a series of structured processes. SDM is a decision-
structuring approach for public resource management under conflicts derived from
multi-stakeholders with different perspectives. This difference impedes the technical
analysis of the problem because the problem is often emotionally charged. There-
fore, despite existing technical decision tools and theory, we often fail to dissect the
problem and decide where to apply those tools, due to people's mental shortcuts,
biases, or groupthink. To encourage focusing on facts rather than conflicts and
controversies, SDM proposes a sequence of collective thinking realized by six
processes: (1) Clarifying the decision context, (2) Defining objectives and evaluation
criteria, (3) Developing alternatives, (4) Estimating consequences, (5) Evaluating
trade-offs, and (6) Implementation and monitoring. In SDM, it is recommended to
focus on understanding objectives, measures, uncertainty, and ranges of alternatives
by avoiding weighing the alternatives and pursuing consensus, which may cause
unnecessary conflicts among stakeholders with different values. The agreed-upon
objectives and measures constitute evaluation criteria and methods that form a
framework for comparing alternatives. After setting the framework, searching and
developing creative alternatives by participants will be critical to problem solving by
deepening participants’ understanding about objectives and constraints to the objec-
tives. Open dialogues about the trade-offs can contribute to deriving negotiable
points by clarifying agreed and disagreed points among stakeholders. SDM also
incorporates the adaptive management approach in the Implementation and moni-
toring phase where it is expected that local people can establish skills in monitoring,
just as in the A phase of the IDEA cycle.
SDM provides a practical guide to build a common understanding under trust and
partnership among stakeholders so that decision-making on agreeable alternatives
can be negotiated. This SDM approach has been successfully applied to the
12 T. Yahara et al.
Table 1.1 Comparison of five models for decision-making processes

Adaptive PDCA
IDEA cycle management cycle Future earth SDM
Set-up Set-up Problems, objectives
Idea Alternatives
generation
Design and Decision Plan Co-design Consequences, trade-offs, optimi-
decision making zation and decision
Experimental Monitoring Do Co- Action
action production
Assessment Assessment Check, Co-
action dissemination
management of environmental problems spanning water use planning, air quality,

climate change, wildfire risks, parks and recreation, fish and wildlife harvest, and oil
and gas development by assisting stakeholders in constructing their own solutions
(Gregory et al. 2012). Despite these successes, SDM has some shortcomings relating
to its applicability. As shown by the multiple processes, participants should commit
to each process implementation that may be technically intensive, although the
knowledge itself is provided by initially organized technical working groups and
expert panels. In addition to considerable efforts for understanding technical issues,
participants should enjoy long discussions to achieve agreements on objectives and
measures, which should be demanding on the participants. How we can maintain the
cooperation of participants over this long process of SDM remains a question to be
considered in further studies.
Among the five models of decision-making processes (Table 1.1), IDEA cycle
identifies the first step as a process reviewing the backgrounds of a problem and
developing various ideas for its solution. This process is corresponding to processes
(1)–(3) in SDM, where the context behind a problem is reviewed, objectives of a
problem solving are discussed, and alternative options are developed. This review
process is not specified in PDCA cycle, adaptive management cycle, and the three-
stage model of Future Earth.
As is summarized above, the three-stage model of transdisciplinary science in
Future Earth is one of the few ideas for facilitating the collaboration of scientists and
stakeholders toward social problem solving. Compared with other ideas, this model
has some shortcomings, given the complexity of decision-making processes under
social conflicts, difficulty of cooperation under social dilemmas, and the importance
of adaptive management and learning to reduce uncertainty and find better options.
The IDEA cycle helps recognize those issues by incorporating ideas developed by
previous studies including adaptive management (Holling 1978) and structured
decision-making (Gregory et al. 2012) into a simple, four-phase framework.
More specifically, the IDEA cycle helps to identify the following key questions in
decision science for a sustainable society. How can we integrate scientific and design
thinking in the idea generation phase? How can we build consensus on a particular
option to be adopted (or a hypothesis to be tested)? How can we organize and
maintain cooperation through experimental executions under social dilemmas? How

can we improve our capacity for solving problems through adaptive learning? All of
those questions are related to human cognition, decision-making, and behavior that
are at least partly genetically determined as a consequence of evolution from our
ancestors to modern humans. Thus, understanding human nature from the viewpoint
of evolutionary biology provides a fundamental base of decision science for a
sustainable society. This viewpoint is explained in further detail in the following
section.
2.3 Evolutionary Theory as a Basis of Decision Science

for a Sustainable Society
Future Earth is aiming at developing research to better understand changing “social-

ecological systems” (Berkes and Folke 1998; Gunderson and Holling 2002; Folke
et al. 2005) by integrating different disciplines from the natural and social sciences,
engineering, and humanities (Future Earth 2013). However, achievements of previ-
ous efforts for this integration are not fully reviewed in the design process of Future
Earth. Here, we briefly review that an integration of natural and social sciences and
humanities has been successfully developed by using evolutionary theory as a
universal integrator, or “universal acid” (Dennett 1995), and this integration is
relevant to sustainability science. Dennett (1995) called Darwin’s theory of evolu-
tion by natural selection “Darwin’s dangerous idea” in that it “eats through every
other explanation for life, mind and culture.” This vision of the integration of natural
and social sciences goes back to the proposal of Sociobiology (Wilson 1975).
Although this proposal triggered a strong controversy (Segerstrale 2000), social
scientists and humanity researchers gradually accepted evolutionary theory and
developed new disciplines of human cognition and behavior including evolutionary
psychology (Barkow et al. 1995; Dunbar et al. 2005; Dunbar 2014; Buss 2014) and
behavioral economics (Kahneman 2003, 2011). Further, as was predicted by
Dennett, evolutionary theory has been incorporated into studies of almost all aspects
of human life, including institutions (North 2005), morality (Haidt 2007, 2012;
Greene 2013), politics (Heath 2014), and human history in relation to the environ-
ment (Diamond 2005), violence (Pinker 2011) and many other aspects of our society
(Pinker 2018; Ridley 2016). Consequently, many themes of social science and
humanity research are now at least partially integrated with the rapid advance in
natural science on human nature, including human genome research and neurosci-
ence. Those integrations provide many innovative understandings of human behav-
ior and decision-making that are relevant to sustainability science.
First, there is increasing evidence that human populations are genetically variable
in political attitudes, moral foundations, personalities, and cognitive ability, all of
which can influence human behavior and decision-making. The dichotomy of
cooperation and confrontation in human societies may result partly from this
14 T. Yahara et al.
variability. Genetic variation in political attitudes (e.g., conservative vs. liberal) is

now well documented (Bouchard et al. 2003; Gerber et al. 2010; Hatemi et al. 2011;
Oskarsson et al. 2015) and the heritability of various traits associated with political
attitudes is 30-60% (Hatemi and McDermott 2012). This variation of political
attitudes is associated with difference in moral beliefs among people (Haidt 2012).
According to the moral foundation theory (Haidt 2007; Graham et al. 2013), human
morality is derived from multiple innate mental systems called moral foundations
including care, fairness, loyalty, authority, and sanctity, each shaped by a different
evolutionary process. Graham et al. (2013) suggested that care foundation is advan-
tageous for parents to protect their own child, fairness foundation is advantageous
for an individual to develop cooperation with one’s own direct interaction partners in
non-zero-sum exchanges, like trades, loyalty foundation is shaped up by intergroup
competitions, authority foundation is shaped up by dominance hierarchies, and
sanctity foundation is derived from the emotion of disgust that evolved to avoid
risks from pathogens and parasites. Haidt and Graham (2007) and Graham et al.
(2009) showed that more conservative people have moral intuitions with more
emphases on loyalty, authority, and sanctity foundations and less emphases on
care and fairness foundations than more liberal people. Gerber et al. (2010) showed
that political attitudes vary with openness, one of Big Five personality traits associ-
ated with creativity and intelligence and more liberal people tend to have higher
openness. Further, Oskarsson et al. (2015) showed that political attitudes vary with
cognitive ability and suggested cognitive ability is a causal mechanism linking genes
and political attitudes. Both openness and cognitive ability are highly heritable
(Bouchard and McGue 2003). These findings suggest that we are genetically differ-
ent in attitudes to various social issues and thus for transforming our society toward
sustainability, we need to develop social environments that facilitate cooperation
among people with different moral beliefs.
Second, our species is highly cooperative, violating the standard economic
assumption that everyone in the economy is rational and selfish (Bowles and Gintis
2011). Theoretical and experimental research has been accumulated to understand
how humans can continue to work together to overcome the temptation to exploit
other people's efforts (Yamagishi 1986; Sigmund et al. 2001; Fowler 2005; Henrich
2006; Rockenbach and Milinski 2006; Egas and Riedl 2008; Boyd et al. 2010). This
cooperative nature is widely observed in not only modern societies but also hunter-
gather societies where band-level cooperation on sharing a large game is maintained
under strong consensus about holding down dominant behaviors (Boehm 2008,
2012). Boehm (2008) suggested that this “egalitarian syndrome” is considered to
be a consequence of natural selection on the self-monitoring and self-controlling
capacities to avoid punishments from the society (bond) when breaking the rules that
was shared and internalized by language. Whereas the details of selection pressure
on human cooperation remain controversial (Bowles and Gintis 2011), strategies
such as direct/indirect reciprocity, retaliation, and reputational considerations are
hopeful mechanisms for maintaining cooperation among individuals. Although
cooperation incurs significant cost to individuals, if people live in small groups,
interact repeatedly, distinguish each other, and expect like treatment from others,
then cooperation can evolve with the help of these mechanisms (Nakamaru and
Iwasa 2006; Sigmund 2007; Puttermann et al. 2011; Guala 2012; Iwasa and Lee
2013). Under these mechanisms, ingroup favoritism or empathy within the group
can also evolve because discrimination of ingroup members from outsiders can
promote cooperation by allowing a person to interact with more reliable
co-players. While ingroup favoritism or empathy within the group provides a basis
of cooperation in a community, it also causes conflicts among communities. To solve
various social problems, we need to develop some agreement or meta-morality to
avoid conflicts among groups or “them” and develop cooperation in a larger
community or “us” (Greene 2013).
Third, our decision-making based on a moral foundation is intuitive and driven by
a cognitive system called System 1 (Haidt 2012; Greene 2013). According to
Kahneman (2011), human cognitive systems are composed of System 1: responsible
for intuitive decision; and System 2: responsible for rational decision. This dual-
process model was first proposed by Evans (1989) and has been supported by
subsequent psychological studies (see Evans 2008; Evans and Stanovich 2013),
and also by brain research (Brewer et al. 2011; Brewer 2017). This is, of course, a
much-simplified model of highly complicated systems but useful to understanding
many cognitive biases inherent in System 1. While System 1 is always operating to
instantaneously respond to information continuously inputted from external envi-
ronments to the brain, System 2 is driven by sending a particular task to the brain by
paying attention. System 2 is a costly process consuming much sugar in the brain and
paying attention means paying a biochemical cost. Thus, our brain tends to make
decision-making by System 1 unless careful thinking using System 2 is required by
alarming signals or social requests. System 1 is considered to have evolved as an
adaptation to minimize the cost of responding to various external signals. Therefore,
System 1 is usually effective in our ordinary life, but it has many cognitive biases
that often cause serious mistakes in decision-making (Kahneman 2011). For exam-
ple, once a person accepts a belief or hypothesis, System 1 seeks and accepts
evidence supporting the accepted belief or hypothesis and avoids thinking well
using System 2 by paying attention to inconvenient evidence. Even scientists are
not free from this trend, known as confirmation bias (Nickerson 1998), and thus they
often claim conflicting views on social issues, accelerating social confrontation.
Those cognitive biases discovered by psychologists demonstrated the background
of the limitation of our rationality (boundary rationality, Simon 1947). As such
cognitive bias became widely known, the difficulty of rational problem-solving has
been emphasized by distinguished scholars thinking about the transformation of our
societies (Haidt 2012; Greene 2013; Heath 2014). In the co-design process of
transdisciplinary research in Future Earth, we should carefully avoid failures from
those cognitive biases. This issue is considered in detail in the next section.
16 T. Yahara et al.
3 Learning from Failures and Guidelines for Co-design
3.1 Vulnerability of Group Decision-Making
Future Earth emphasizes the importance of co-design with various stakeholders

(Mauser et al. 2013), but group decision-making, including co-designs between
scientists and stakeholders, does not necessarily result in successful outcomes
(Janis 1972, 1982; Kerr and Tindale 2004; Brodbeck et al. 2007). Co-design by
scientists, government, and the private sector is a process that has been widely
pursued in Japan and successfully supported the high economic growth since the
1950s. However, decision makings based on co-design by scientists, government,
and the private sector resulted in some big accidents including the Fukushima
nuclear power plant disaster (Aoki and Rothwell 2013; Labib and Harris 2015).
According to Labib and Harris (2015), the likelihood of a serious accident was
foreseen, but design shortcomings were neither investigated nor addressed. To avoid
such a failure in the co-design process, we need to understand how group decision-
making can fail in general. It is well known in social psychology that group decision-
making often fails due to various cognitive biases (Kahneman 2011; Lu et al. 2012;
Montibeller and von Winterfeldt 2015). In this section, we first review our current
understanding of vulnerabilities and cognitive biases associated with group decision-
making. Second, we consider how we can deal with those vulnerabilities and
cognitive biases and propose guidelines for avoiding co-design failures in transdis-
ciplinary projects.
Janis (1972) coined the term “groupthink” to describe the failure of group
decision-making based on a comparative analysis of high- and low-quality decisions
made by policy-making groups during six historical events in the United States. He
found that some of the historic fiascos were the result of faulty decision-making by
groups dominated by concurrence-seeking behavior, which refers to the tendency of
group members to avoid controversy and reach a consensus decision without a
critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints. Janis (1982) concluded that “group-
think,” which he defined as “a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are
deeply involved in a cohesive ingroup, when the members’ strivings for unanimity
override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action,” often
resulted in a tragic outcome. Janis (1982) identified the following three major
antecedent conditions that make a group vulnerable to “groupthink”: cohesiveness
of a group, structural fault like homogeneity of members’ background, and context
like high stress and low self-esteem. Further, he identified three major symptoms of
“groupthink,” including overestimation of the group, closed-mindedness, and pres-
sures toward uniformity, while seven symptoms of defective decision-making
lowered the probability of successful outcomes, including incomplete survey of
alternatives and failure to work out contingency plans. Janis’s “groupthink” model
is described in many social psychology textbooks even though empirical tests do not
always support the relationship between the antecedent conditions and symptoms
(Baron 2005; Rose 2011). Baron (2005) argued that “we are familiar with
groupthink symptoms and processes because the concurrence seeking, illusion of

consensus, self-censorship and ingroup defensiveness described by Janis are far
more widespread phenomena than he envisioned.”
While the concept of “groupthink” is a heuristic approach to evaluate the quality
of policymaking, some critiques of the model have appeared since the early 1980s
(McCauley 1989). First, Longley and Pruitt (1980) criticized that the “groupthink”
theory is not a logical progression of ideas, but a grab-bag of phenomena that were
correlated with each other in sampled cases. Second, Hart (1991) criticized that some
cases of policy failure were chosen first, and then “groupthink” analysis was applied
to see whether the decision process was affected by it. This methodology is biased
toward selective interpretation of the case study material. Baron (2005) and Rose
(2011) have reviewed other critiques as well as evidence supporting or dismissing
the “groupthink” model. As is summarized by Baron (2005), Janis (1972, 1982)
assumed that strong group cohesion is likely to induce “groupthink” when supported
by some secondary conditions, such as insulation of the group, directive leadership,
lack of fair group norms, and homogeneity of member attitude or ideology. How-
ever, it remains uncertain how primary and secondary conditions influence outcomes
of group decision-making.
As far as we know, the mathematical model of Furuta and Kondo (1992) is the
only available tool for analyzing the influence of group cohesion and secondary
conditions on outcomes of group decision-making. In their “group reliability anal-
ysis,” they developed a mathematical model describing the success probability (the
probability of correct judgment by a group) as a sigmoid function of the judgment
ability of each member and the influence from other members (strength of group
coherence). They found that the success probability generally increases with the
strength of group coherence, but decreases above an optimal level of group coher-
ence if group members are isolated from outside information and criticism by
sharing a common attitude or if a group contains members with insufficient judg-
ment ability. This study theoretically supported the idea of Janis (1972, 1982) that
group cohesion can evoke the failure of “groupthink” when supported by some
secondary conditions (particularly, the insulation of the group). It is notable that the
model of Furuta and Kondo (1992) was developed in the Department of Nuclear
Engineering, with the goal of improving group performance and safety in the nuclear
power sector. This indicates that Japanese scientists involved in the nuclear power
sector were aware of the susceptibility to “groupthink,” but this knowledge was not
successfully utilized to improve nuclear power policy.
Some research topics related to the “groupthink” model have been studied rather
independently. First, the hidden profile paradigm (Stasser and Titus 1985; Stasser
1988) directed a surge of research on the failure of group decision-making due to
people’s tendency to discuss and incorporate shared (known to all members) infor-
mation rather than unshared (known to a single member) information (Wittenbaum
et al. 2004; Brodbeck et al. 2007; Lu et al. 2012; Sohrab et al. 2015). This hidden
profile paradigm provides a demonstration of the concurrence-seeking tendency
specified by Janis (Baron 2005). Second, group polarization (Myers and Lamm
1976; Sustain 2002), a phenomenon where a group tends to make decisions that
18 T. Yahara et al.
are more extreme than the initial preference of its members, has been extensively
studied by social psychologists. This phenomenon occurs because the tendency to
conform is so strong in our society that group members adjust their judgments to the
dominant one even if it requires them to abandon the direct evidence of their own
senses (Sustain 2002). Third is pluralistic ignorance, a phenomenon where all
members in a group tend to reject a norm privately, but finally accept it because
everyone incorrectly assumes that the other members are agreeable to it (Katz and
Allport 1931). A classic example of this phenomenon can be seen in “The Emperor’s
New Clothes,” a well-known fairy tale written by Hans Christian Andersen. Plural-
istic ignorance has been demonstrated by organizational studies in various social
contexts (Halbesleben and Buckley 2004; Miyajima and Yamaguchi 2017). Even
though members individually disapprove of the status quo or have a better plan, the
group finally makes a decision without anybody’s real support. Fourth, various
cognitive biases in individual decision-making have been extensively studied (Kah-
neman 2011; Montibeller and von Winterfeldt 2015). Those cognitive biases influ-
ence group decision-making tendencies, including concurrence-seeking and group
polarization. Watkins and Bazerman (2003) argued that cognitive biases are one of
the main causes of organizational failure to prevent predictable crises like the
accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. In the next section, we consider
the argument of Watkins and Bazerman (2003) and review how cognitive biases
cause group decision-making to fail.
3.2 Predictable Surprise
Watkins and Bazerman (2003) coined the term “predictable surprise” to describe the
failure to prevent predictable crises. To distinguish unavoidable surprise from
predictable surprise, they developed the so-called “RPM process” composed of
recognition, prioritization, and mobilization. If the leader fails to recognize the
threat, prioritize appropriate options to mitigate the threat, or mobilize effective
responses to the threat, the resultant failure is a predictable surprise. They analyzed
various cases where leaders and organizations failed to take effective measures
against foreseeable crises, and identified psychological, organizational, and political
vulnerabilities that were behind such failures (Watkins and Bazerman 2003;
Bazerman and Watkins 2004). Among them, psychological vulnerabilities are asso-
ciated with various cognitive biases of System 1 (Kahneman 2011).
While more than 180 cognitive biases have been proposed (Manoogian 2016;
Ellis 2018), there is no widely accepted classification of those biases. Here we adopt
the Haselton et al.’s (2015) three-way classification of heuristics, error management
biases, and artifacts because it is based on an evolutionary understanding of the
human cognitive systems. According to Haselton et al. (2015), heuristics and error
management biases are consequences of adaptive evolution, whereas artifacts arise
when we encounter situations that are not adapted in the process of evolution.
Among those three categories, heuristics and error management biases are relevant
Table 1.2 Psychological vulnerabilities listed by Watkins and Bazerman (2003) and evolutionary
classification of cognitive biases
Classification based Terms in predictable surprise (Watkins
on EMT and Bazerman 2003) Synonyms and relevant theory
Heuristics Vividness Availability heuristic
–Greater exposure to media cover-
age distorts people’s judgment
Scanning failure (selective attention) Confirmation bias
– Selective attention occurs when
decision makers dismiss or ignore
information that is inconsistent with
their expectations
Error management: Positive illusion (Unrealistic optimism Normalcy bias, time inconsis-
threat-relevant bias about the future) and Excessive disre- tency, present bias, prospect
gard for the future theory
– People’s tendency to prefer pre-
sent benefit over future benefit
– Would you prefer to receive
$10,000 today or $12,000 a year from
now?
– Most homeowners fail to buy more
expensive, energy-efficient appliances
even though they would recoup the
extra costs in less than a year
Maintain the status quo Status quo bias, omission bias,
– People’s tendency to hesitate over prospect theory
trade-offs that require the infliction of a
smaller harm to avoid a situation that
would cause greater harm
Error management: Interpret events in an egocentric man- Self-serving bias, Ingroup
biases in interper- ner (egocentrism) favoritism
sonal perception – Our views on environmental and
societal issues, such as acid rain and
global warming, are biased in a self-
serving manner
– Difficulty in the fair distribution of
responsibilities and costs for global
environmental issues
Error management: Positive illusion (unrealistically posi- Self-enhancement, better-than-
biases in self- tive self-evaluations) average effect, reduction of
judgment – People’s tendency to overestimate cognitive dissonance
their achievements and underestimate
their negligence
Positive illusion (illusion of control) Self-deception
– Experienced dice players believe
that “soft” throws are more likely to
result in lower numbers
20 T. Yahara et al.
to psychological vulnerabilities discussed by Watkins and Bazerman (2003)

(Table 1.2).
3.2.1 Heuristics
Heuristics, often called mental shortcuts, are a limited number of rules by which
people can reduce the complex tasks of assessing likelihoods and predicting values
into simpler judgmental operations (Tversky and Kahneman 1974). Because these
rules work well in many situations, cognitive systems rely on heuristics to solve
adaptive problems to reduce the cost of decision-making (Gigerenzer 2007;
Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier 2011; Haselton et al. 2015). However, these rules
often lead to systematic errors of decisions. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) argued
that three heuristics underlie a wide range of false intuitive decisions: representa-
tiveness, availability, and anchoring.
In the representativeness heuristics, people estimate the likelihood of a person
pursuing a particular occupation based on the degree to which he or she is represen-
tative of, or similar to, the stereotype of an occupational role. Using the representa-
tiveness heuristics, we tend to assume that a doctor in charge of emergency surgery is
a man, not a woman. In the availability heuristics (Tversky and Kahneman 1973),
people assess the probability of an event by the ease with which instances could be
brought to mind. Using availability heuristics, people find it easier to recall bad
pieces of news, and consequently tend to believe that the world is getting worse.
Also, the availability heuristic makes people underestimate unfamiliar events.
Anchoring is a phenomenon where different starting points lead to different esti-
mates, which are biased toward the initial values that people assume at the starting
point.
These heuristics are associated with confirmation bias (Wason 1960), or the
tendency of people to seek information that matches their expectations and to fail
to detect new crises, even when information that contradicts expectations is avail-
able. Confirmation bias emanates from a cognitive shortcut or heuristic that sim-
plifies complex inferential tasks (MacCoun 1998). Watkins and Bazerman (2003)
described this situation as “scanning failures,” which they argued occur when
organizations focus on familiar information and fail to collect available information.
In the case of the 9/11 attacks in the United States, there was a widespread belief
among the domestic intelligence community that Osama bin Laden was unlikely to
strike within the country and likely to attack an overseas facility of the United States,
even though available information indicated the threat of attack on an internal
facility (Watkins and Bazerman 2003).
3.2.2 Error Management Biases
According to the error management theory (EMT) (Haselton and Buss 2000;
Haselton and Nettle 2006), which applies the principles of signal detection theory
for the evolution of cognitive biases, error management biases can arise as a
consequence of evolutionary adaptation in cases where biased responses resulted
in lower error costs than unbiased responses. According to EMT, the cognitive
mechanism can produce two types of errors: (1) false positives (an error caused by
taking an action that would have been better not to take), and (2) false negatives
(an error caused by not taking an action that would have been better to take). EMT
predicts that an optimal decision would minimize not the total costs of false-positive
errors and false-negative errors, but the net effect of errors on fitness. If one error
consistently reduces fitness more than another error, a bias will evolve toward
avoiding the former error. Haselton and Nettle (2006) explained this asymmetry
by means of an example of an animal detecting a snake. For that animal, the cost of
expected death by approaching a potentially venomous snake is much larger than the
cost of moving away from the snake. Thus, it is advantageous to acquire a predator
avoidance strategy for snakes. In fact, it is well known that many animals, including
humans, are predisposed to produce a fear response to snakes and spiders (Shibasaki
and Kawai 2009; Hoehl et al. 2017).
Taylor and Brown (1988, 1994) reviewed psychological research associated with
mental health, and determined that people hold positive illusions in three domains:
(1) people view themselves in unrealistically positive terms, (2) people believe they
have greater control over environmental events than they actually have, and (3) peo-
ple hold views of the future that are brighter than base-rate data can justify. Positive
illusions include previous psychological findings such as better-than-average effect
(Festinger 1954), optimism bias (Weinstein 1980), self-deception (Gur and Sackeim
1979), self-enhancement (Shrauger 1975), and illusion of control (Langer 1975).
EMT explains that positive illusions are caused by the asymmetrical costs between a
false-positive error and a false negative toward a future success. If a future victory
provides a splendid reward, trying and failing (false positive) does not matter,
whereas failing to try (false negative) could be costly, especially in competitive
contexts (Haselton et al. 2015). Positive illusions drive organizational leaders to
ignore the risk of crises and make poor decisions as they respond to emerging crises
with mildly distorted positive perceptions of themselves, an exaggerated sense of
personal control, and overly optimistic expectations about the future (Taylor and
Brown 1988; Taylor and Armor 1996).
In addition to positive illusions, EMT also explains status quo bias, or the
tendency of “doing nothing or maintaining one’s current or previous decision”
(Samuelson and Zeckhauser 1988; Ritov and Baron 1992). This is the tendency to
avoid trying an action that may fail (false negative) when the cost of trying and
failing (false positive) is larger than the expected benefit of trying. Status quo bias
makes organizational leaders or organizations stick to a current option or default
situation if they believe that changing the current state of affairs would be costly,
even when a rational alternative is available. Normalcy bias (Omer and Alon 1994)
is another type of error management bias causing false-negative errors. It is the
tendency of people to underestimate the likelihood of and damage from a catastrophe
even in the face of signs of the disaster. They consequently believe that it would not
affect them and that they are safe, while hesitating to evacuate even after the
22 T. Yahara et al.
occurrence of the disaster. It is one of the main causes of the cognitive failure to
detect a predictable surprise. For people in an emergency situation, such as rising
floodwater levels around their house, failing to traverse a submerged area (false
positive) seems much more costly than failing to evacuate by staying at home (false
negative).
Failures of group decision-making are caused by not only personal cognitive
biases, but also structural faults of organization and errors resulting from group
dynamics. Watkins and Bazerman (2003) listed four types of organizational failures
to respond to predictable crises. First, “scanning failures” occur when a group fails to
scan the environment and collect sufficient information, due to the lack of organi-
zational resources or inadequate attention toward predictable crises. Second, even if
a group succeeds in collecting sufficient information, “integration failures” occur
when it fails to assimilate fragmentary information possessed by individuals or
subgroups and to analyze that information to produce actionable insights. Third,
“incentive failures” occur when people fail to act on available insights for predict-
able crises because they lack the incentive to do so. Fourth, “learning failures” occur
when a group fails to glean lessons from past failures and disseminate those lessons
to a relevant part of the group.
In the process of co-design and co-production in transdisciplinary research with
various stakeholders, we should make efforts for avoiding these failures. Many of
these failures are associated with the vulnerabilities of group decision-making, such
as groupthink, hidden profile paradigm, group polarization, and pluralistic igno-
rance, as we reviewed above. However, decision support schemes, such as IDEA
cycle and SDM, do not focus on the impact of cognitive biases and group dynamics
on the outcome of decisions. In the next section, we consider the guidelines to deal
with these vulnerabilities.
3.3 Guidelines for Co-design Among Stakeholders
Reducing or eliminating cognitive biases from decision-making, called debiasing, is

a process that is crucial for ensuring successful group decision-making in co-design
involving multiple stakeholders. In his influential textbook, Fischhoff (1982)
pointed out that the debiasing process requires a psychological approach to change
human behavior. Following a more recent review (Larrick 2004), Bazerman and
Moore (2008) recognized psychological barriers to change human behavior and
suggested a general debiasing strategy by applying the Lewin’s change model
(Lewin 1947) to debiasing processes. The Lewin’s change model is a three-step
model of human behavioral changes consisting of unfreezing, changing, and
refreezing processes. First, unfreezing is the process of motivating individuals to
change their decision-making strategies. This process unfreezes the notion that their
decision-making processes do not require improvement by making individuals
aware of vulnerabilities to biases using such means as the quiz-and-feedback format.
Second, changing is the process of learning improved decision-making strategies
and replacing old strategies with new ones. This process includes explaining con-
crete examples of general biases related to decision-making, and training people to
consider the opposite or alternative hypothesis to their tentative conclusions. Third,
refreezing is the process of making new decision strategies permanent. In order to
secure the change, frequent applications of new strategies and overviews of past
training are necessary. Further details of debiasing techniques are summarized in “A
User’s Guide to Debiasing” (Soll et al. 2015).
The debiasing technique summarized above is called the “modify the decision
maker” approach (Soll et al. 2015). Another approach called “modify the environ-
ment” (Soll et al. 2015) seeks to provide the environment in which people naturally
make a better decision when unaided (Klayman and Brown 1993). “Nudge” (Thaler
and Sunstein 2003) is a way to influence human behavioral changes by pushing
individuals toward better choices without limiting their liberty. An example of
“nudge” is the presumption of consent, rather than unwillingness, to increase the
number of organ transplant donors. Under such a policy, citizens are presumed to be
consenting to become donors if they suffer brain death, even though they have the
opportunity to register their unwillingness to donate by checking the box on their
driving license. This is the strategic use of status quo bias. However, there is
criticism that such a policy is a kind of paternalism. Gigerenzer (2014) argued that
it is more important to improve citizens’ judgment ability and risk literacy rather than
assuming that citizens’ decision-making needs to be guided by the government.
The studies summarized above focused on biases in decision-making by individ-
uals. Few studies have focused on biases or errors in group decision-making, such as
groupthink, hidden profile paradigm, group polarization, and pluralistic ignorance
(Schulz-Hardt et al. 2006; Schwenk 1990). Co-design is the collective process to
elicit an agreement among various independent stakeholders and to make a decision
using their collective wisdom. To manage this co-design process, we must highlight
the importance of not only debiasing for individuals, but also reducing biases or
errors in group decision-making.
There are two classical techniques of debiasing in group decision-making: devil’s
advocacy (Herbert and Estes 1977) and dialectical inquiry (Mason 1969). Devil’s
advocacy is the technique for stimulating conflicts. In devil’s advocacy, a group
member or a subgroup is assigned the role of the devil’s advocate whose task is to
criticize the options on the table. When a consensus is reached on a particular option
as a solution to the decision problem, the devil’s advocate creates counterarguments
to this solution and tries to identify its weaknesses. The group should then investi-
gate these criticisms. Following the review, the particular option is either accepted or
rejected.
Dialectical inquiry is the technique of investigating competing ideas or perspec-
tives and involves the following steps. First, teams of decision makers are
established. Second, each team is instructed to generate and evaluate alternative
options and then recommend the best one. Third, after hearing each team’s recom-
mendation, the teams’ and the organization’s top leaders discuss and select the best
parts of each option and synthesize a final plan.
24 T. Yahara et al.
These techniques and conditions are effective in considering counterarguments

and evaluating options fairly based on reason or the controlled process of decision-
making (Haidt 2006). On the other hand, Haidt (2006) argued that we need to pay
more attention to emotion or the automatic process of decision-making. His argu-
ment is based on the dual-process model of decision-making. He differentiated
between the automatic and the controlled processes corresponding to System
1 and System 2 of Kahneman (2011), respectively. He explained why we are
vulnerable to biases using the metaphor of a rider on the back of an elephant. In
Haidt’s metaphor, the elephant (emotional side) influences most of the rider’s
(rational side) decisions. The elephant rider seems to be in charge, but actually has
limited control over what the elephant does. Thus, for effective decision-making, we
need to strike a balance between the emotional and rational sides. Whereas both
devil's advocacy and dialectical inquiry are debiasing techniques that rely on reason
(using controlled processes or System 2), we need to develop communications that
appeal to emotion (using automatic processes or System 1) by building trust and
resolving conflicts among stakeholders.
Conflicts among stakeholders are associated with both relationships and tasks.
While relationship conflicts among group members often decrease group perfor-
mance, task conflicts increase group performance only when those are weakly
associated with relationship conflicts (de Wit et al. 2012). Trust building is important
in mitigating the negative influence of relationship conflicts on group performance
(Simons and Peterson 2000). In past studies on building trust and resolving conflicts,
the role of good leaders (Hahn et al. 2006), face-to-face discussions (Wilson et al.
2006; McKnight et al. 2002), collaborative efforts (Sherif et al. 1954), and agreeable
common goals (reframing) has been highlighted. Controversy in group decision-
making is associated with high group performance and high-quality decisions under
mutual trust and cooperative relationships among group members as we reviewed
above. Devil's advocacy or dialectical inquiry provides a direct way to structure
controversy cooperatively by organizing critical subgroups. However, these are not
commonly applicable for the co-design process in decision-making, where there is
often no hierarchical relationship between stakeholders and it is uncomfortable for
many stakeholders to organize critical discussion among them without emotional
entanglement. To keep the co-design process in group decision-making constructive
and cooperative, we make the following recommendations that can serve as a
guideline to ensure diversity of opinions among group members based on the
“modifying the environment” approach:
1. Group decision makings often fail if group members sharing a common attitude
are isolated from outside information and criticism. To avoid this failure, do not
exclude stakeholders with different views from the process of co-design. Also,
actively listen to the opinions of diverse groups of people.
2. Group decision makings often fail due to group dynamics including the tendency
to conform. To avoid this failure, open the information required for decision-
making and the process of discussion to the public.
3. Group decision makings often fail if critiques and competing ideas are neglected.
To avoid this failure, perform an external review of the co-designed research plan.
4. Trust building is important in mitigating the negative influence of critical discus-
sion on group performance. Build trust among stakeholders with different views
by setting agreeable common goals and promoting face-to-face discussions and
collaborative efforts.
4 Learning from Successes in Local Communities
4.1 Seeds of a Good Anthropocene and Efforts for Adaptive

Comanagement
Whereas Earth system changes can have catastrophic and irreversible impacts on
human societies (Lenton et al. 2008; Schellnhuber 2009; Rockström et al. 2009;
Future Earth 2013), efforts to prevent deleterious changes in local environments
have developed steadily and have been successful, at least on a local scale. Bennett
et al. (2016) called these initial successes “seeds of a good Anthropocene” and
developed a database of 100 initiatives representing a diversity of practices, world-
views, values, and regions. The seeds were categorized into six classes: agroecology,
green urbanism, future knowledge, urban transformation, fair futures, and sustain-
able futures. The database can help researchers understand the processes that lead to
the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human–environ-
mental relationships.
Bennett et al. (2016) clustered their six classes of seeds into two major categories:
seeds of local socioecological systems (agroecology, green urbanism, and urban
transformation) and seeds of knowledge and institutions (future knowledge, fair
futures, and sustainable futures). As an example of the former (agroecology),
Bennett et al. (2016) introduced Satoyama, a traditional Japanese agricultural land-
scape system, in which different land uses including farm fields, rice paddies,
irrigation canals and ponds, and settlements form a cohesive system, providing a
diversity of ecosystem services (Takeuchi 2010; Dublin and Tanaka 2014). As an
example of the latter (future knowledge), they introduced GreenMatter, an initiative
aimed at driving transformation in graduate-level skills associated with biodiversity
conservation in South Africa. While the “seeds of a good Anthropocene” can be
classified into these categories, some efforts, including the Satoyama Initiative
(International Partnership for the Satoyama Initiative [IPSI] 2010), are directed
toward both sustainability of socioecological systems and knowledge generation
for sustainable futures.
In parallel with the “seeds of a good Anthropocene” project, the International
Social Science Council (ISSC) promoted its Transformations to Sustainability (T2S)
program for innovative, social science-led research on sustainable futures. In 2014,
T2S, funded by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida)
26 T. Yahara et al.
and implemented in partnership with the National Research Foundation of

South Africa, selected 38 projects for funding. The early achievements of these
projects are introduced in a special issue of Current Opinion in Environmental
Sustainability (Moser 2016a). Papers in this issue describe 16 case studies in
which researchers spent 6 months developing trust and co-designing projects with
various stakeholders (Moser 2016b). In one example, the DIALAQ (DIALogic
exploration of futures and pathways for sustainable farming on overexploited AQui-
fers) project involved farmers, public administrators, municipalities,
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), elected representatives, and various aca-
demic partners, building on trust that had already been established (Richard-
Ferroudji et al. 2016). In the “research-for-action” project, focused on rangeland
sustainability, participants from diverse regions including Mongolia, Kenya, and the
United States built trust and fostered a learning community by allowing for cross-
cultural, cross-sector, and cross-discipline differences (Galvin et al. 2016). Some of
these projects faced the challenge of working across differences in background,
training, experiences, needs, ideologies, and interests (Moser 2016b).
While Future Earth is promoting transdisciplinary projects co-designed by scien-
tists and stakeholders, as in the T2S program, global efforts to close the gap between
science and society in knowledge generation processes have been ongoing since at
least the 1970s. First, the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Programme (MAB),
launched in 1976, used collaboration among various stakeholders (including local
communities and scientists) to maintain ecological and cultural diversity and secure
ecosystem services for human well-being by harmonizing conservation efforts with
the local development needs. Second, since the 1990s, many efforts have been made
to develop adaptive comanagement of various natural resources including forests,
fisheries, bodies of water, wildlife, wetlands, protected areas, coasts and coral reefs,
and agriculture (Berkes 2009; Plummer et al. 2012). Third, in the International
Partnership for the Satoyama Initiative (IPSI) founded in 2010, collaboration
between local communities and scientists has been pursued to develop sustainable
comanagement of socioecological production systems.
The MAB is a UNESCO Intergovernmental Scientific Programme that aims to
establish a scientific basis for the improvement of relationships between people and
their environments (UNESCO 1996; Reed and Price 2019). Each biosphere reserve
designated under the MAB Programme is composed of three elements: core areas, a
buffer zone, and a flexible transition area. The buffer zone surrounding core areas is
an area used for activities that contribute to conservation objectives, such as eco-
tourism, education, and research. The flexible transition area is an area containing
farmlands and villages, and the resources in that area can be sustainably used by
various stakeholders.
From 1976, when the MAB Programme started, to 1995, 324 biosphere reserves
were designated in 82 countries (UNESCO 1996). By May 2020 this network had
grown to include 701 sites in 124 countries (UNESCO 2020). At the International
Conference on Biosphere Reserves held in 1995, the program’s early achievements
were reviewed, and a new strategy and statutory framework for biosphere reserves
were developed (UNESCO 1996). The statutory framework identified three
functions of biosphere reserves: biodiversity conservation, sustainable economic and

human development, and logistic support for education, research, and monitoring.
The new strategy emphasized efforts to involve various stakeholders in decision-
making processes and stated that “Bring together all interest groups and sectors in a
partnership approach to biosphere reserves both at site and network levels,” in one of
ten key directions (UNESCO 1996). Subsequently, adaptive comanagement of
natural resources, involving diverse stakeholders in decision-making processes,
has been developed in multiple biosphere reserves, and its effectiveness has been
supported by performance analyses (Schultz et al. 2011; Plummer et al. 2017).
Adaptive comanagement (ACM) is an extension of adaptive management
(Holling 1978; Walters 1986) that incorporates participatory approaches (Berkes
2009). Plummer et al. (2012) suggest that attempts at adaptive comanagement began
with a pioneering project at the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
in 1997, but the biosphere reserve strategy (UNESCO 1996) is another root.
Plummer et al. (2012) reviewed the history and achievements of adaptive
comanagement since the 2000s, drawing on 108 sources. While this systematic
review revealed considerable variability in defining what constitutes success or
failure in ACM, it identified social networks, learning, and stakeholder participation
as three important factors contributing to success, and conflicts of interest, power
asymmetries, and insufficient resources as three major factors contributing to failure.
However, the authors argue that it is difficult to determine how these variables
contribute to particular goals and outcomes, because many studies do not adequately
define the goals of ACM. After this review, Plummer et al. (2017) examined
processes and outcomes in four UNESCO biosphere reserves where the goals of
ACM were clearly specified. They showed that ACM efforts in all four reserves had
many positive results, including ecological and livelihood effects. Similarly, Cosens
et al. (2018) reviewed ACM, or adaptive governance, in water management projects
for six watersheds in the United States, in which goals for sustainability and water
resource resilience were clearly defined. Again, they found many positive results and
identified the role of laws in triggering and facilitating adaptive governance. In
addition, Leach and Pelkey (2001) reviewed 37 studies on watershed partnerships
and identified 28 lessons for successful management by synthesizing 210 conclu-
sions collected from these studies. Among these lessons, the two most frequently
identified keys to success were funding and effective leadership. Wondolleck and
Yaffee (2000) published a book entitled “Making collaboration work,” reviewed
many practices of American natural resource management, and derived 8 lessens for
success, including common ground building, interaction among diverse groups,
collaborative process, open and holistic mind-set, a sense of responsibility and
ownership, partnerships of people, proactive and entrepreneurial behavior, and
resources from numerous sources.
ACM has been developed in the activities of IPSI that was organized during the
2010 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP10. IPSI serves as a global
effort for biodiversity conservation through the revitalization and sustainable man-
agement of socioecological production landscapes and seascapes, or SEPLS (Inter-
national Partnership for the Satoyama Initiative [IPSI] 2010). IPSI promotes
28 T. Yahara et al.
activities that maintain the typical mosaic pattern of land and water uses and natural
habitats in SEPLS, which ensures the maintenance of biodiversity and the sustain-
able provision of ecosystem services for human welfare. IPSI also provides a
platform for sharing traditional and modern knowledge that can contribute to the
sustainable management of SEPLS (International Partnership for the Satoyama
Initiative [IPSI] 2010; Duraiappah et al. 2012). IPSI has grown to comprise
240 member organizations spanning many sectors, with activities in most countries
listed as parties to CBD. IPSI published four volumes of thematic assessment reports
(UNU–IAS and IGES 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018), collecting more “seeds of a good
Anthropocene” and reviewing successful case studies from various countries.
IPSI adopted the following three approaches to maintaining and rebuilding
socioecological production systems in which land and natural resources are used
and managed in a more sustainable manner: (1) consolidating wisdom on securing
diverse ecosystem services and values, (2) integrating traditional ecological knowl-
edge and modern science to promote innovation, and (3) exploring new forms of
comanagement systems or evolving frameworks of “commons” while respecting
traditional communal land tenure. The IPSI webpage introduces 280 case studies
from Africa, the Americas, Asia, Oceania, and Europe, of which 38 are reviewed in
detail in the thematic assessment reports (UNU–IAS and IGES 2015, 2016, 2017,
2018). In the second report, Subramanian et al. (2016) identified the following
general principles for successful management of SEPLS: (1) mobilize knowledge
toward action, (2) foster and leverage inclusive participation, and (3) use adaptive
planning and management for activities. These three principles are similar to the key
directions identified by the MAB Programme, and the second and the third principles
are based on the concept of adaptive comanagement (Folke et al. 2002; Carlsson and
Berkes 2005; Plummer et al. 2012).
4.2 Lessons Learned from Efforts for Adaptive

Comanagement
As summarized above, both global and local efforts for sustainable natural resource
management resulted in a convergent view emphasizing adaptive comanagement
(Folke et al. 2002; Carlsson and Berkes 2005; Berkes 2009; Plummer et al. 2012),
which combines the learning function of adaptive management (Holling 1978;
Walters 1986) with the linkage function of collaborative management (Carlsson
and Berkes 2005; Folke et al. 2005). Efforts have been made to review the achieve-
ments of various adaptive comanagement projects and identify lessons learned
(Folke et al. 2005; Plummer et al. 2012; Chaffin et al. 2014; Cosens et al. 2018).
These reviews have identified at least three factors contributing to the success of
ACM. First, adaptive learning, or iterative knowledge generation, is critically
important to manage socioecological systems, in which social and ecological sys-
tems are strongly coupled and their changes are often nonlinear and complex (Folke
Fig. 1.3 Cooperation Community cooperation

triangle: a scheme of
community governance Social ties
supported by external
knowledge and external
（ Citizen）
-
institutions
External External
knowledge institutions
（Experts）（Public/Private）
Technical cooperation Institutional cooperation
et al. 2005). Second, institutions, including markets and laws (North 2005; Cosens
et al. 2018) and self-organization of communities (Ostrom et al. 1999; Ostrom 2000,
2009) can support cooperation in large communities by reducing instability under
collective action problems (Olson 1965; Sanders 1992) or social dilemmas (Axelrod
1984; van Lange et al. 2013). Third, visionary leaders play a key role in building
trust, making sense, managing conflict, linking actors, initiating partnerships among
actor groups, compiling and generating knowledge, and mobilizing broad support
for change (Folke et al. 2005).
Based on these reviews as well as our own experience (described later), we
propose “cooperation triangle” as a general scheme of organizational cooperation
in adaptive comanagement practices (Fig. 1.3), in which cooperative governance in a
local community is supported by external knowledge and external institutions. Using
this scheme, we emphasize the importance of promoting the evolution of external
knowledge and institutions and internal social ties in local communities that connect
local governments, social capital, and social memory. In this scheme, we distinguish
between knowledge and institutions from outside a community and those available
inside the community, because most co-design processes start from interactions
between community insiders and outsiders that provide access to new knowledge
and institutions (Folke et al. 2005; Moser 2016b). While a community has its own
local knowledge and institutions, external knowledge and institutions also play
critical roles in local processes of adaptive governance and problem-solving. As
noted above, the two most frequently identified keys to success for watershed
governance are funding and effective leadership (Leach and Pelkey 2001); these
are associated with external institutions and knowledge.
In the scheme of cooperation triangle (Fig. 1.3), we distinguish between knowl-
edge and institutions because each has different historical trajectories of change,
defined by different processes of cultural evolution (Richardson and Boyd 2006;
Ridley 2016; Henrich 2017). Much as language evolves through the gain and loss of
homologous words through time (Bouckaert et al. 2012), knowledge evolves
through the gain and loss of alternative ideas (Parson and Clark 1995). In particular,
scientific knowledge evolves through the gain and loss of alternative hypotheses
examined through empirical tests. Adaptive learning is another way of describing
this process of knowledge evolution. On the other hand, the evolution of institutions
30 T. Yahara et al.
involves not only learning but also designing. For example, new or revised laws are
designed by governments to meet the needs of society.
Scientists are now one among many actors involved in knowledge generation,
rather than serving as objective and independent specialists expected to deliver
knowledge to managers and citizens (Folke et al. 2005). Recently, there have been
at least three notable changes in knowledge generation processes. First, the rise of
citizen science has enabled nonexpert citizens to engage with science, particularly on
environmental issues, in collaboration with scientists working in local contexts
(Bonney et al. 2014; Wals et al. 2014). Consequently, the gap between scientists
as active knowledge producers and society as passive recipients (Mauser et al. 2013)
has been bridged. Second, there has been increasing appreciation for insights from
traditional knowledge, which often supported sustainable natural resource use for
hundreds or thousands of years (Ludwig et al. 2001), as well as for local knowledge
embedded in ordinary community life (Folke et al. 2005; Henrich 2017). The
Intergovernmental Platform of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) con-
ceptual framework (Diaz et al. 2015) explicitly included efforts for integrating
indigenous, local, and practitioners’ knowledge with modern science. Third, in
adaptive comanagement processes in local communities, science cannot be separated
from social, ethical, and economic issues, including values and equity, and nobody
can be an expert in all aspects of these complicated issues (Ludwig et al. 2001).
Thus, mutual learning among diverse experts and stakeholders is needed to share and
integrate knowledge from various disciplines and finding agreeable and effective
options.
Under these changes, not only scientists but also other stakeholders are now
active in compiling and generating the knowledge required for problem-solving and
adaptive governance in local communities. As a result, it is increasingly challenging
to mobilize knowledge from various disciplines and sources, develop common
understanding among stakeholders, and finding agreeable visions and options for
solving problems. To respond to these challenges, solution-oriented transdisciplin-
ary science has been developed by integrating natural and social sciences and other
knowledge useful for stakeholders involved in problem-solving practices. As is
described in the next section, technical collaboration among diverse experts trained
for transdisciplinary science is extremely helpful for ecosystem comanagement,
post-disaster recovery processes, and other solution-oriented social projects.
External institutions including government agencies, the private sector, and
NGOs can provide funds and human resources to help solve problems through
adaptive governance in local communities. Funding is key to the success of adaptive
comanagement (Leach and Pelkey 2001), and laws can provide both barriers and
bridges to adaptive governance (Cosens et al. 2018). A good example of the role of
law in adaptive governance is found in Japan, where environmental administration
has changed dramatically since the 1990s as a series of new laws have been enacted.
These include the Basic Environment Law (1993), the Act on Conservation of
Endangered Species of Wild Animals and Plants (1993), Environmental Impact
Assessment Act (1997), the Revised River Law (1997), the Act on Promotion of
Global Warming Countermeasures (1998), the Act on Promotion of Nature
Restoration (2002), and the Basic Act on Biodiversity (2008). Through implemen-
tation of these environmental laws, increasing budgets have been allocated to
adaptive governance of biodiversity conservation, nature restoration, and ecosystem
management, and collaborations between citizens and administration have been
developed. For example, the Revised River Law promoted adaptive comanagement
of rivers by considering not only water control and water use but also biodiversity
conservation and environmental sustainability (Shimatani 2005; Nakamura et al.
2006). These new environmental laws have been successful in developing adaptive
comanagement systems for wetlands, grasslands, forests, and socioecological pro-
duction landscapes and seascapes in local Japanese communities.
While external knowledge and institutions are provided to local communities by
outsiders, these communities have their own knowledge systems and institutions.
The problem-solving ability of a local community is determined by how well these
knowledge and institutions are utilized, and it is the social ties that determine the
level of this utilization. Social ties are strengthened by historical accumulation of
social capital and social memory. According to Folke et al. (2005), social capital is
the capital built by investing in social relationships, including trust, leadership, and
networks of horizontal or vertical collaboration. Similarly, Pretty and Ward (2001)
define social capital as relations of trust, reciprocity, common rules, norms, sanc-
tions, and connectedness in institutions. Folke et al. (2005) emphasize that gover-
nance systems for ecosystem management require a civil society with a certain level
of social capital. In addition to social capital, they argue that social memory is also
key to adaptability in local societies because local governance systems must contin-
uously learn and generate knowledge about ecosystem dynamics.
Compared to our deeper understanding of the evolution of knowledge (e.g.,
Berkes 2009) and institutions (e.g., North 2005), our understanding of the evolution
of social ties still remains rather vague. To describe the complex structure of social
ties more quantitatively, analytical approaches, and quantifiable models such as the
network analysis may be helpful. While Lubell et al. (2014, 2017) applied
non-modular network analyses to describe the coordinating roles of actors and
institutions in comanagement, it would be beneficial to add a modular structure to
the network analysis, considering the tendency of ingroup favoritism. Using this
structure commonly used in the analysis of biological communities (e.g., Olesen
et al. 2007), actors can be classified into network hubs, module hubs, connectors, and
peripherals based on connectivity within and between modules. Community mem-
bers who belong to one of the modules and interact more closely within the module
tend to show goodwill and loyalty to ingroup members but often have doubts and
hostility about external members (Greene 2013). To develop cooperation not only
within an ingroup (“us”; Greene 2013) but also with an outgroup (“them”), a leader
who can work as a connector plays a critical role. A connector is a person who can
connect an ingroup with outgroups and play an important role in coordinating
conflicts between an ingroup and an outgroup. The development of social ties can
be seen as the evolution of connectivity in social networks supported by activities of
connectors. To promote collaboration through the community, it is considered
effective to increase numbers of connectors by providing opportunities for members
32 T. Yahara et al.
to interact with members of different modules in an organization or community. To

enhance this interaction, leaders in a community can play major roles.
The role of the leaders has been emphasized in literature on adaptive governance
(Folke et al. 2005). According to Gladwell (2000), the leaders are often mavens
(altruistic individuals with social skills) or connectors (individuals who know many
people with a diversity of acquaintances). Bodin (2017) argued that appointing a
specifically designated coordinator with some authoritative capacities can be effec-
tive for mediating risky relationships. However, there is insufficient common under-
standing regarding what a leader is and properties that define a leader. Recently,
evolutionary biology was taken into account (Bastardoz and van Vugt 2019), and the
relationship between the Big Five personalities and leadership was discussed (Judge
et al. 2009). The big five personalities including openness, conscientiousness,
agreeableness, extroversion, and neuroticism are associated with the following
qualities needed in leaders: vision, self-management, devotion, passion, and risk
management. Humans are diverse in their personalities, both genetically and empir-
ically (Vukasovic and Bratko 2015). For this reason, human resources with out-
standing capabilities in perception, self-management, devotion, passion, and risk
management are rare. From an evolutionary viewpoint, it is considered advanta-
geous to follow the leader’s decision as a follower, when decision-making as a leader
is more costly than following a leader (King and Cowlishaw 2009; Bastardoz and
van Vugt 2019). In many cases, a leader pays a larger cost (time, effort, and other
resources) in organizing and sustaining a cooperative team by managing noncoop-
erative activities in a collective action. Consequently, leaders who are willing to
devote to building and maintaining a team required for social transformation are
always a limited resource. Then, how can we find good leaders who are needed to
transform our society toward a sustainable future? In the following section, we
distinguish two types of leaders, game changers and mediators, and argue that
scientists can play a significant role as game changers.
4.3 Lessons from Transdisciplinary Projects at the Institute

of Decision Science for a Sustainable Society (IDS3)
In this section, based on our experience in transdisciplinary studies at the Institute of

Decision Science for a Sustainable Society (IDS3), we consider the roles of scientists
in adaptive governance as the leaders on social problem-solving processes and social
transformation for sustainability. While scientists are major participants in the
knowledge generation processes, it has been found that they also play leading
roles in adaptive governance in communities. Here, we consider the roles of scien-
tists in adaptive governance as “game changers” and “mediators” (Fig. 1.4).
As emphasized by Folke et al. (2005), collaboration in governance networks by a
community in need of change requires entrepreneurial leaders. Entrepreneurial
leaders can provide innovative visions and options for decision-making toward
Game changer
M I
Move to Idea
change generation
A D
Assessment of
Mediator Design &
decision-
consequences
making
E
Experimental
execution
Fig. 1.4 A modified scheme of the IDEA cycle incorporating the roles of game changers and
mediators
change and reorganization, and coordinate collaboration between stakeholders by

initiating partnerships among actors, building trust, managing conflict, and mobiliz-
ing available resources for change. We define an entrepreneurial leader who initiates
and catalyzes collaboration for change as a “game changer.” A community in need of
change is often trapped by social dilemma (Axelrod 1984; van Lange et al. 2013)
that can be modeled as a public goods game (Isaac and Walker 1988; Bowles and
Gintis 2011); action for change is costly to each actor, even if change is beneficial for
all community members. Additionally, expected outcomes of change are often
uncertain and complicated. Under these circumstances, it is not easy to initiate
collaboration for change. A game changer is an altruistic person who is willing to
do the heavy lifting to resolve dilemma and start a rotation of the IDEA cycle that
involves idea generation, design and decision-making, experimental executions, and
assessments of consequences (Fig. 1.4). While people other than scientists can play
the role of a game changer, scientists who are employed by public institutions, rather
independent of various economic interests, and have scientific knowledge required
for both short-term and long-term decisions are more likely to act as game changers.
After activation of change, social adaptation to new environments and transfor-
mation to a desirable state often requires long-term effort and collaboration between
stakeholders. In this process, stakeholders are required to make continuous efforts
for rotating the IDEA cycle (Fig. 1.4). Bodin (2017) suggests that specific actors are
required to act as “risk mediators” to maintain collaborative endeavors under tight
bonding structures. In our experience, scientists can serve as mediators not only in
managing risks of unstable cooperation but also evolve knowledge, institutions, and
social ties under intimate interactions. Below, we introduce five successful cases
34 T. Yahara et al.
where scientists played critical roles as game changers and then as mediators of the
evolution of knowledge, institutions, and social ties. In these examples, scientists
developed various mediation mechanisms including a science committee, academic
societies for area studies, and social businesses. The first three case studies are from
Japan, followed by Cambodia and India. In the three Japanese cases, local commu-
nities faced difficulties associated with deer overdominance, an aging society, and
devastation by floods. In Cambodia, people coped with the loss of forests by
developing community forestry. In India, people have developed social businesses
for medical support in villages. While some of these projects have long histories of
collaboration between stakeholders, others have developed more recently. By com-
paring these heterogeneous cases, we demonstrate how scientists can perform as
game changers and mediators.
4.3.1 Ecosystem Comanagement in Yakushima, Japan
The island of Yakushima, Kagoshima Prefecture, spans an area of 504.9 km2 and is
located 60 km south of Kyushu Island. Yakushima harbors pristine forest vegetation
from its sea level to its highest peak (1936 m), including lowland broad-leaved
forests and highland coniferous forests, where over 40 endemic plant species have
been discovered (Yahara et al. 1987). Most forested areas are protected and managed
as national parks by the Ministry of Environment or national forests by the Forestry
Agency. Additionally, the continuous landscape from Yakushima’s seashore to its
highest peak is registered as a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site as well as a
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve.
As reviewed by Yahara (2006), population declines of threatened plant species
due to deer browsing was first reported by scientists in the Red Data Book published
by Environment Agency in 1997. Scientists organized an assessment project
between 2004 and 2006 to measure the increase in deer population and declines in
plant species. While conducting assessments, project teams developed collabora-
tions with the island’s citizens as well as administrations of the Ministry of Envi-
ronments, the Forestry Agency, Kagoshima Prefecture, and Yakushima Town. The
assessment project provided convincing evidence of deer population increases and
declines in threatened plant species to citizens and administrations (Yahara 2006). In
2009, the Ministry of Environment and the Forestry Agency established the World
Natural Heritage Regional Science Committee by inviting both citizen scientists
living on the island and external professional scientists to participate in the manage-
ment of the World Heritage Site area (Okano and Matsuda 2013). The administra-
tions of Kagoshima Prefecture and Yakushima Town joined the administration team
and this alliance enabled the four largely isolated governments to discuss the
ecosystem of Yakushima at the same table. Since 2009, the science committee has
played a key role in planning ecosystem management in Yakushima and worked for
monitoring and management of deer, developing common understanding based on
data, and building consensus among stakeholders on measures against undesirable
ecosystem changes. Activities of the science committee further evolved with the
invitation of social scientists to discuss other issues including the overuse of tourism.
The 2009 foundation of the science committee was a successful turning point in the
adaptive governance of Yakushima driven by significant contributions of scientists,
who in this case, served, as game changers.
Since 2009, scientists contributed significantly to the processes of adaptive
governance by not only providing scientific knowledge (e.g., providing a mathe-
matical model for zone-based management of the deer population; Fujimaki et al.
2016), but also by mediating the evolution of knowledge, institutions, and social ties.
Notably, the Society for Yakushimaology, an academic society of area research on
Yakushima, was founded in 2013 in a collaboration between 200 members including
professional scientists and citizen scientists (Matsuda et al. 2015). A group of
scientists who have achievements in on-site research in Yakushima, including
primatologists, botanists, and hydrologists, made efforts negotiating with the
mayor, administrators, and citizens of Yakushima Town. As a result, the Society
for Yakushimaology was founded in 2013 as a collaboration with the municipal
administration, and until 2019 it organized six annual meetings providing platforms
for mutual learning among participants including hunters, ecotourism guides, and
citizens, on both natural and social sciences and basic and solution-oriented research
on Yakushima.
4.3.2 Citizenship Education in an Aging Society of Tsushima, Japan
Tsushima, an island 132 km north of Kyushu Island, Japan and 50 km south

of Busan, Korea, has a population of 32,000. Tsushima’s society is facing the threat
of a rapidly aging and declining population (Kawaguchi and Araki 2016). The aging
of farmers has made it difficult to continue paddy cultivation. Consequently, large
areas of rice paddy fields were abandoned and changed to wastelands. The increase
in abandoned paddies has not only decreased agricultural productivity but also
negatively impacted biodiversity. Many aquatic organisms lived in these paddy
fields, which served as alternative habitats for wetlands. The decrease in aquatic
animals, especially frogs, may threaten an endemic subspecies of wildcat
(Prionailurus bengalensis euptilurus) due to food limitation (Kawaguchi and
Araki 2016). Other consequences of abandoned paddies are increases in populations
of boar and deer, which are damaging to both agricultural produce and natural
vegetation.
Adaptive comanagement of social-ecological systems in Tsushima has been
developed by the city government since 2011, when it received a subsidy from the
Ministry of Internal Affairs to hire external personnel for local community develop-
ment. This subsidy system was founded in 2009 by the Japanese government to
support community development in areas facing rapid aging and population decline.
Using this subsidy, the city government hired graduates, including PhD holders, who
worked as game changers by promoting a “Field Campus” project. Field Campus
was aimed at inviting external researchers and graduate students to carry out on-site
research in Tsushima. As Tsushima does not have any universities, high school
36 T. Yahara et al.
students who wish to pursue higher education leave Tsushima and seldom return.
“Field Campus” is an effort to overcome the issue of the lack of universities in
Tsushima, and scientists of some universities including Kyushu University, Nippon
University, Rikkyo University, and Yokohama National University have responded
to this project (see Itonaga 2014; Maeda 2014). To support Field Campus, in 2014,
the city government established a plan for community development by promoting
cooperation between the Tsushima area and universities. Starting in 2015, the city
government began hosting an academic meeting called the “Tsushimaology Forum.”
Our IDS3 team from Kyushu University joined the Field Campus project in 2014
and initiated some transdisciplinary projects in Tsushima (Tokunaga and Akiho
2018).
A project named “Treasures of the Island Project” was developed in cooperation
with Tsushima City Administration, Kami Tsushima High School, Tsushima Cham-
ber of Commerce, and Kyushu University, aiming at providing high school students
with the opportunity to discover and learn about local attractions. After twenty
meetings to discuss and co-design the project, six groups of high school students
made field reports on questions including “How can we increase jobs in Tsushima?”,
“What is the attractiveness of local foods in Tsushima,” and “What are needs of
Korean tourists?” Scientists and graduate students of Kyushu University supervised
and facilitated group projects of high school students, who then presented their
findings in meetings open to citizens. After joining this project, high school students’
scores for willingness to participate in local community development were found to
have significantly increased (Tokunaga and Akiho 2018). As the activity of Kyushu
University is supported by a time-bounded grant from JSPS, Kami-Tsushima High
School plans to continue this education using their own budget. This is another
successful example of the evolution of knowledge, institutions, and social ties
mediated by scientists.
4.3.3 Recovery from Flood Damage in Asakura and Toho, Japan
Asakura City, Toho Village and the adjacent region located in northern Kyushu
Island suffered serious floods caused by torrential rainfall on July 5, 2017 (Kawano
and Kawamura 2020). At least 40 people were killed as hilly slopes collapsed
causing landslides and bringing down large numbers of trees. Due to severe sedi-
ment run off, infrastructure including roads, bridges, and buildings were destroyed.
In response to this disaster, Kyushu University organized Support Team for Recov-
ery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction that was joined by 52 professors from
various faculties including technology, agriculture, science, and arts, and initiated
activities including surveys and support for those who had been evacuated (Mitani
2018). Support Team was intended to continue supporting a long-term process
needed for immediate response to the disaster, repairing from the disaster, and
restoration of ordinary lives, where urgent, short-term, and long-term decision
makings must be integrated (Fig. 1.5; Shimatani 2016). Professors at Kyushu
University’s Disaster Risk Reduction Research Center took leadership organizing
Fig. 1.5 Scheme of urgent, Response to the disaster

short-term, and long-term
decision-making after a Emergency Repairing
disaster (Shimatani 2016)
Social situation
Restoration
DRR
Normal
Disaster
Time
Support Team and worked as game changers. After the emergency response phase,
Support Team joined meetings of affected people in 17 villages, provided them with
aerial photographs of villages depicting where and how severely landscape and
infrastructure were damaged, and asked them to write their requests on post-its
and stick them on particular damaged sections on aerial photographs (Shimatani
et al. 2020). Notably, experts of various disciplines including civil engineering,
forestry, and ecology joined meetings and facilitated citizen discussion. Adminis-
trators of municipalities and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and
Tourism also participated. Village meetings proved to be extraordinary opportunities
for bridging fragmentation of both academia and administration, and mediating
collaborative interactions among citizens, administrators, and scientists (Shimatani
et al. 2020). On September 13, 2017, Support Team held an open meeting for
citizens to introduce early findings from surveys, summarize progress in various
activities including volunteers and cultural support, and discuss challenges and
needs for recovery. On December 17, 2018, Kyushu University, Asakura City, and
Toho Village had a joint open meeting to share knowledge and experiences during
the recovery process and visions for future reconstruction. The role of scientists here
shifted from game changers to mediators of a long-term reconstruction process.
Continued support for this process still remains a challenge.
4.3.4 Supporting Community Forestry in Cambodia
Collaboration between Kyushu University and the Forest Administration of Cam-

bodia began in the 2000s when Dr. Heng Sokh studied at the graduate course of
Kyushu University. Since then, many staff members of the Forest Administration
have enrolled and earned PhDs at Kyushu University and returned to jobs at the
Forest Administration. In his pioneering paper, Sokh and Iida (2001) reviewed
practices of community forestry in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, the Philippines, and
Indonesia and concluded that most practices had five key factors: (1) a well-defined
community organization, (2) security of rights on land and trees, (3) economic
38 T. Yahara et al.
benefits to local communities, (4) evaluation and monitoring, and (5) strong support
from NGOs and central and local governments. On the other hand, they argued that
some projects of community forestry in Cambodia are underway without evaluation
and monitoring, and more efforts for monitoring are needed to improve project
implementation. Since then, increasing efforts for monitoring community forestry
achievements have been made as a result of collaborations between the Forestry
Administration and Kyushu University. Most recently, Lonn et al. (2018) made a
country-scale analysis of biophysical factors affecting forest coverage changes in
community forestry areas from 2005 to 2016 using a dataset of 197 projects and
high-resolution maps of forest coverage. Results showed that probability of forest
loss increased with community forestry size and decreased with elevation and slope,
suggesting that smaller areas are more effective for community forest management at
lower elevations with gentle slopes. Results also showed that the probability of forest
loss was lower if a community forest was located closer to villages and markets but
further from the main roads, suggesting that cooperation is more stable under
situations that many people can observe. In the development of community forestry
under the collaboration between the Forestry Administration and Kyushu Univer-
sity, Dr. Sokh functioned as a game changer. Since his initiation of the collaboration,
various projects have developed as collaborations between the Forestry Administra-
tion and Kyushu University, including assessments of wood fuel consumption
patterns (Top et al. 2004), forest biomass estimation (Kajisa et al. 2009), tree
water use in a community forestry site (Miyazawa et al. 2014), monitoring plant
species and phylogenetic diversity (Toyama et al. 2015), and studies on flora and
vegetation of a national park (Zhang et al. 2016). In these projects, scientists worked
as mediators of the evolution of knowledge and social ties.
4.3.5 Development of Portable Health Clinic as Social Business in India
The Portable Health Clinic (PHC) is a remote health service system using a set of
medical sensor devices in a briefcase and software enabling telecommunications on
medical examinations (Ahmed et al. 2013). A set of devices in a briefcase is
designed to determine essential indicators for physical examination including body
temperature, blood pressure, blood tests, and urine tests. PHC was developed by a
collaboration of Kyushu University (KU) and the Grameen’s social business (Yunus
2007, 2010), and has been used to develop a remote health services in Bangladesh
(Nakashima et al. 2013; Hossain et al. 2019). In India, the Portable Health Clinic
(PHC) research project started in March 2016 as a community-based health check-up
services in a collaboration of KU, Grameen Communications (GC) company of the
Grameen Organizations in Bangladesh, and Biyani Group of Colleges (BGC) in
India. This collaboration was developed since the 6th Asia Telemedicine Sympo-
sium held in Fukuoka, Japan in 2012 where a research director of BGC expressed
interest in PHC. More details of this project and its lessons are provided in Sect. 2.2
(Yokota et al. 2018).
Noncommunicable diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, and kidney diseases

have been an increasing social issue in India as in other developing countries. To
address these problems, the primary objectives of the PHC project in India were:
– To increase access to basic health check-ups and telemedicine services.
– To increase community health awareness, knowledge, attitude, and behaviors for
prevention of noncommunicable diseases.
– To reduce incidents of disease complications and comorbidities such as hyper-
tension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and anemia.
To achieve these objectives, the PHC project in India aimed to provide sustain-
able mobile health check-up services in collaboration with local government agen-
cies, industries, and communities in the state of Rajasthan, India.
During the initial phase from March 2016 to April 2017, these objectives were
shared and agreed upon among KU, GC, and BGC. In this pilot phase, development
of the research plan, training workshops, implementation of research, data analysis,
and data feedback workshops were conducted in collaboration with KU, GC, and
BGC. The game changer who enabled the launch of these pilot activities was the
BGC research director. In the following phases described in Sect. 2.2 (Yokota et al.
2018), a coordinating staff of BGC acted as a mediator of these activities under the
leadership of the BGC research director, and researchers of KU also acted as
mediators of the evolution of knowledge and social ties by improving the PHC
system and incorporating community needs.
In the processes of co-design and co-implementation of the PHC project in India
(Yokota et al. 2018), the following lessons from the success of Grameen’s social
business (Yunus et al. 2010) have been consulted:
1. Challenging conventional wisdom and basic assumptions: This lesson encour-
ages changes to the current rules of public games.
2. Finding complementary partners: This lesson emphasizes the importance of
cooperation as a major success of social businesses.
3. Undertaking a continuous experimentation process: This lesson is similar to the
idea of the adaptive management (Holling 1978; Walters 1986) in that it facili-
tates knowledge acquisition through experimental execution.
4. Favoring social profit-oriented shareholders: This is a vision unique to Grameen’s
social business that pursues positive links between all stakeholders, including
shareholders.
5. Clearly specifying the social profit objective: This is another vision unique to
Grameen’s social business, which aims to generate social profit rather than
financial profit.
Compared to the four transdisciplinary projects above, the PHC project in India is
unique in having the above visions of social business development shared by the
Grameen Organizations. Currently, a PHC service is being designed as a health
insurance system for employees of a private company in Rajasthan, India. The new
proposal, drafted by KU and BGC, was shared with the company manager to discuss
the feasibility of continuing the PHC project as a company's health insurance. The
40 T. Yahara et al.
development of PHC projects as social businesses is in progress not only in India but
also in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Thailand (Grameen Comunitations 2020).
4.4 The Roles of Scientists to Drive the Evolution

of Knowledge, Institutions, and Social Ties
In this chapter, we reviewed successful cases of adaptive governance and social

transformation. Collaboration between scientists and society has developed since the
1970s, long before 2013 Future Earth initiative. UNESCO’s Biosphere Reserve is
the root of adaptive co-management of natural resources, and the Grameen’s social
business that began in 1976 can be regarded as another pioneering effort to promote
adaptive governance on poverty alleviation. These efforts consist of three key
elements: knowledge production and social learning, improvement of institutions
including laws and business, and strengthening social ties. In addition, these pro-
cesses proceed due to interaction.
The important lesson from various successful examples of adaptive governance
and social transformation is that the role of scientists in starting and mediating the
evolution of knowledge, institutions, and social ties within a community is often
very large. Scientists can work as game changers by specifying a problem, organiz-
ing stakeholders, and promoting a project that will initiate social change. Scientists
can also act as mediators and as continuous catalysts for social transformation. While
scientists are now one among many actors involved in knowledge generation (Folke
et al. 2005), they can also play significant roles as game changers and mediators of
social transformation. To be successful in fulfilling these roles, scientists must follow
the co-design guidelines we developed in Sect. 1.2. In order to strengthen the role of
such scientists, it is necessary to establish a framework for evaluating and supporting
not only research achievements but also activities that contribute to social transfor-
mation. Moreover, a new knowledge system is needed to support activities of
scientists in transdisciplinary sciences, and this chapter addresses this need.
5 How can We Transform Our Society Toward

a Sustainable Future?
In this section, we will further integrate lessons learned from past failures (Sect. 3)
and successes (Sect. 4) to provide a more general discussion of how we can promote
social transformation toward a sustainable future. As shown in Sect. 4, adaptive
comanagement on natural resources has had many successful examples, at least
locally. There are also many successful examples of local efforts for poverty
alleviation, public health assistance, and community education. On the other hand,
it is more difficult to solve global problems where the stakes are more complex and
conflicts are larger. Then, how can we connect local success to global problem-
solving?
There are two major factors behind the difficulty of the problem. First, human
cooperation is unstable in large groups, and given this nature, global cooperation is
the most difficult task. Secondly, there are often complex and serious conflicts
among countries and ethnic groups over trade, territory, religion, culture, and
history. Providing a comprehensive perspective to solve these difficulties is beyond
the scope of this chapter. However, based on lessons we have gained so far from the
local success and failure, we could expect the following directions to be key clues to
global problem-solving: (1) facilitating the participatory process, (2) mediating
conflicts among groups with different views, (3) improving institutions represented
by subsidies and legal regulation, (4) enhancing education and adaptive learning,
and (5) promoting behavior based on hope rather than fear.
5.1 Promoting Participatory Process
Let us start by considering international cooperation that has been developed

through participatory processes in biodiversity issues. Many biodiversity issues are
local, but the ecosystem itself has no border, and there are various linkages between
ecosystems. First, as represented by migratory birds and fish, many animals live
across borders, and multilateral cooperation is necessary for the conservation of
these animals (Barkin and DeSombre 2000; Runge et al. 2015). Secondly, the local
environmental burden is linked globally by trade (Lenzen et al. 2012). For example,
the decline in tropical forests in Southeast Asia is closely related to timber consump-
tion in countries of other areas, including Japan, China, and the United States
(Nishijima et al. 2016). Changes in consumer consumption behaviors and corporate
decision-making in these major countries are needed to conserve tropical forests.
Third, as represented by UNESCO Biosphere Reserves and World Heritage, there
are international mechanisms that contribute to regional development. By strength-
ening these linkages, it is possible to increase opportunities for local citizens to
recognize that global issues are their problems. In Yakushima and Tsushima,
academic societies on area studies involving citizen scientists have been developed
through collaboration between citizens and experts. These attempts can provide a
good opportunity for citizens to become aware of the link between local issues and
global issues. Organizing collaboration between citizens and experts in regional
projects such as UNESCO Biosphere Reserves and networking them internationally
would be a hopeful option for developing participatory processes that connect local
and global scales (Sato et al. 2018).
Another possibility to connect the local scale with the global scale is the biodi-
versity observation network. Unlike climate change observation, the cooperation of
many citizens is particularly effective for biodiversity observation (Chandler et al.
2017). Citizen participation platforms such as iNaturalist (Cobb et al. 2019) and
international cooperation on specific organisms such as migratory birds (Kirby et al.
42 T. Yahara et al.
2008) have already been well developed. Recently, citizen participatory monitoring
utilizing advanced technologies such as environmental DNA has been developed
(Miya et al. 2015; Valentini et al. 2015). In order to link such local biodiversity
observations to global observations such as GEO BON, both national level obser-
vation networks and regional level observation networks such as APBON (Nakano
et al. 2014) are important (Navarro et al. 2018).
A variety of international cooperation has been developed through participatory
processes in issues other than biodiversity. According to the comprehensive review
of Charnovitz (1997), history of NGO participation in national and global gover-
nance dates back to 1775 when the Pennsylvania Society for Promoting the Aboli-
tion of Slavery was founded. Since then, participation of NGOs pursuing peace,
worker solidarity, and new international regimes gradually emerged until 1919 when
the Paris Peace Conference was held and the League of Nations was organized. After
the disengaged stage under World War II, participations of NGOs were formalized in
1945 under the United Nations, and activated even under the Cold War from 1950 to
1971. Since the end of the Cold War, NGO participation in international governance
have been intensified through its growth in number, size, and diversity. Both UN
Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) and the UN General Assembly have
developed and strengthened relationships with NGOs in the planning process of
international conferences.
While participatory processes in national and global governance have been
successfully developed as summarized above (Charnovitz 1997), such national and
international cooperation often faces difficulties due to conflicts among various
groups including nationalist groups, ethnic groups, and political groups. In the
following section, we will consider the ingroup favoritism behind various conflicts
in human society, and how we can avoid conflicts and develop cooperation between
groups.
5.2 Reducing Conflicts Among Groups with Different Value

Systems
The phenomenon of human cooperation becoming unstable in large groups has been
widely recognized through research on the tragedy of the commons (Hardin 1968),
collective action problems (Olson 1965; Sanders 1992), free-rider problem
(Grossman and Hart 1980), and social dilemmas (Axelrod 1984; van Lange et al.
2013). On the other hand, it is also true that humans have developed cooperation in
large-scale societies and achieved civilization. Cooperation in such large-scale
societies have been developed through the self-organization of communities
(Ostrom et al. 1999; Ostrom 2000, 2009) and the implementation of various insti-
tutions, including markets and laws (North 2005; Cosens et al. 2018). The biological
foundation of the community self-organization and institutional development is
human moral behavior that evolved with human ability of planning and self-control,
A mechanism Mechanisms for promoting within-group cooperation

for promoting
between-group Reputation Punishment
cooperation
Extraversion Neuroticism
Language （reward-sensitivity）（punishment-sensitivity）
Openness
Conscientiousness（self control）
（ intelligence）
Agreeableness（empathy）
Relatedness, Reciprocity
Fig. 1.6 Big five personalities as mechanisms for promoting human cooperation
associated with advanced language ability and two personality traits: openness and
conscientiousness (Fig. 1.6). With this development of planning ability, humans
have acquired the ability to carry out planned violence. Greene (2013) argued that
the “action plan monitoring module” associated with the moral emotion evolved as a
device to suppress this violence. This idea is consistent with Boehm’s (2008) study
that morality against violence is widespread in hunting and gathering societies. The
research on hunter-gatherer societies reviewed by Boehm (2008) showed that direct
punishments for those who broke the rules and indirect pressure through reputation
are widespread, suggesting that those are major social factors to maintain moral
behavior.
Punishment and reputation are widely incorporated into the model of the evolu-
tion of human cooperative behavior, but these studies suggested that cooperation in
large groups is difficult to be maintained only by these factors (Bowles and Gintis
2011). Selection mechanisms that prompted the evolution of human cooperative
behavior in large groups have yet to be established. Recently, however, there have
been increasing agreements on the role of culture in the evolution of large-scale
cooperation. First, Bowles and Gintis (2011) argued that the evolution of human
cognitive capacities allowed the formulation of social norms, and the emergence of
social institutions regulating these norms, and consequently these institutions facil-
itated human cooperation within groups. Second, Boyd and Richerson (2009)
discussed that the evolution of learning ability favored by ordinary natural selection
resulted in culturally evolved cooperative social environments, and social selection
within groups favored genes that enhanced pro-social behaviors. Third, Henrich and
McElreath (2003) formulated how a process of cultural group selection under the
44 T. Yahara et al.
interaction between cultural and genetic transmission can promote the evolution of
enhanced pro-social behaviors in a large community. More recently, Henrich (2017)
comprehensively reviewed empirical evidence showing how cultural evolution
promoted human cooperation in the process of human civilization. In all of these
discussions, researchers suggested that the evolution of human cooperation was
promoted within groups under escalating human conflicts among groups.
One of the human characteristics that promote cooperation in a large group is
pro-social punishment behavior (behavior that attempts to punish noncooperators
even if they are costly to the punisher). Greene (2013) thought that the pro-social
punishment behavior is associated with moral emotion supported by the action plan
monitoring module, and that this nature has evolved as a means of solving within-
group cooperation problems represented by the tragedy of commons. Like the above
researchers, he argued that this property is not a mechanism that promotes collab-
oration among groups, but rather a mechanism that favors competition among
groups. Different groups often have different moral systems shared within each
group. For this reason, competition between groups with different morality (moral
tribes) tends to create emotional conflicts over morality. Here, the moral emotion that
evolved as a means of solving the cooperation problems within the group itself is the
source of conflict between groups. Greene (2013) named this situation “the tragedy
of common morality.” According to Greene (2013), in order to solve this situation, it
is necessary to switch from intuition-based decisions (like the automatic mode of a
camera) linked to moral emotion to reason-based decisions (like the manual mode).
The moral emotions that bring about “the tragedy of common morality” as
described by Greene (2013) are considered to be associated with the four of big
five personality factors: extroversion, neuroticism, conscientiousness, and agree-
ableness (Fig. 1.6). Extraversion is a sensitivity to positive reputation and is associ-
ated with positive emotions when praised. Neuroticism is a sensitivity to punishment
and negative reputation, and is associated with negative emotions with a sense of
shame and guilt. These sensitivities allow humans to monitor how their actions are
evaluated by others, and based on these sensitivities, humans can control their
actions with conscientiousness. In addition, agreeableness is a personality factor
that promotes cooperation among ingroup members and is associated with empathy.
As Haidt (2006) explained using a metaphor of elephants (intuition) and elephant
riders (reasons), the power of elephants (intuitions) is often too strong to be con-
trolled by elephant riders (reasons). For this reason, Haidt emphasized that efforts to
improve the relationship between elephants (intuition), such as trust, are more
important in mediating social conflicts, rather than the rational argument between
elephant riders. Greene (2013), however, argues that resolution by rational argument
is effective in mediating conflicts among groups with different moral views. Like
Structured Decision Making proposed by Gregory et al. (2012), Greene (2013)
encourages stakeholders to share a specific understanding of trade-offs and pursue
reasonable compromises. While Haidt (2006) recommended to use intuition related
to extroversion, neuroticism, conscientiousness, and agreeableness, Greene (2013)
relied on openness-based reason to resolve social conflicts between groups.
Fig. 1.7 A trichotomous

model of human group
relationship
Greene's argument on “Moral tribes” (Greene 2013) is based on the dichotomy of

ingroup (“us”) and outgroup (“them”). In human hunter-gatherer societies, however,
tribes were connected by various interactions including knowledge exchange, mat-
ing, and trades, and the mode and strength of interactions (cooperation and compe-
tition) varied between groups (Bowles and Gintis 2011). In historical societies,
presence or absence of support from friendly states greatly affected the survival of
civilization (Diamond 2005). Thus, the dichotomy of ingroup (“us”) and outgroup
(“them”) may oversimplify the relationships among human groups or “moral tribes.”
Even in modern human societies, relationships between groups are not limited to
those between two parties, but interactions between groups of three or more parties
are common (Tooby et al. 2006). In an interaction between three parties, for
example, the third group may be friendly with both “us” and “them” (Fig. 1.7).
Under this interaction, we manifest a distaste for exploitation or unfairness by others
not only to ingroup members (us) but also to the third group valued by us, and this
emotion may alleviate conflicts with the second group. Under such an interaction
between multiple groups, we use “theory of group mind” (Tooby et al. 2006) by
considering a group as a person. This is a conceptual extension of “theory of mind,”
a specialized set of cognitive mechanisms that enable us to interpret mental states of
others behind their behaviors (Baron-Cohen et al. 1985). In fact, we tend to consider
as if a group (e.g., a company and a university) has a favor or some hostility toward
us, assuming that a group has mind. According to Tooby et al. (2006), a theory of
group mind is a mind system that evolved as an adaption to engage in complex
n-party interactions. Using this system, the moral emotion that originally evolved as
a means of solving cooperation problems between groups may be extended to solve
the cooperation problems between groups. Thus, not only our reasoning abilities but
our moral emotion may also help us resolve conflicts between “moral tribes.”
46 T. Yahara et al.
5.3 Improvement of Institutions
As a lesson from local successes of adaptive comanagement, it has been confirmed

that the improvement of institutions greatly contributes to its success. For example,
in the ecosystem management on Yakushima, the establishment of the Yakushima
World Natural Heritage Regional Science Committee has brought about significant
ongoing progress. Institutional improvement is also important for improving sus-
tainability at the national level, and the development of a series of environmental
laws in Japan since the 1990s is a good example. Needless to say, institutional
improvements have greatly contributed to solving global problems. The IPCC plays
a major role in consensus building on international measures against climate change
and the development of international cooperation. Similarly, IPBES has announced
regional and global assessments, as an international mechanism that contributes to
the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services.
In this way, the importance of institutional improvement is empirically clear, but
basic issues such as how the institution changes and evolves and what social
mechanisms are behind the institutional evolution are still not fully understood.
North (2005) published a book “Understanding the Process of Economic Change”
that considered these issues and proposed a pioneering theoretical framework. North
(2005) regarded an institution as a deliberate effort to control the environment
around us. This environment includes a natural environment and an artificial envi-
ronment that we have created. The artificial environment is the legal and normative
system itself, which defines the framework for human interaction. Natural science
has developed various technologies to deal with the natural environment and
reduced its uncertainty by deepening our understanding of the natural environment.
However, North (2005) argued that the introduction of new institutions often
increased the uncertainty of artificial environments and forced humans to constantly
adapt to the new environment. This argument of North (2005) can be seen as
applying the Red Queen model on the coevolution of organisms in ecosystems
(Ridley 1993; Benton 2009) to institutional evolution. Antagonistic coevolution
between a host and its parasite causes an escalation of trait evolution through
adaptive evolution that enhances attack and defense. This process is called “Red
Queen Model” after the episode of the fable by Louis Carroll, “Alice in the Looking
Glass,” where the Red Queen said by pulling the hands of Alice, “Now, here, you
see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.” North (2005)
thought that there is the evolution of human belief in the background of institutional
evolution, and that the coevolution of institution and belief created a red queen-like
permanent change.
There remains, however, a significant problem with the discussion in North
(2005). His economic considerations are based on the assumption that selfish
incentives in competitive markets will result in institutional change. Contrary to
this assumption, even in seemingly competitive markets, not only selfish competi-
tion but also altruistic cooperation will motivate changes in institutions, as
represented by the Grameen’s social business (Yunus 2010; Yunus et al. 2010).
Required is not only institutional changes that reduce transaction costs under selfish
competition, but also institutional changes that promote cooperation between stake-
holders to achieve widely agreed goals such as the SDGs. Through institutional
changes that promote such altruistic cooperation, we have realized cooperation in a
large-scale society that far exceeds the Dunbar’s number (Dunbar 1993). Such
efforts have been expanded from the local/national scale to the international scale,
and the United Nations organization, treaties represented by UNFCC and CBD, and
the international assessment organizations (IPCC and IPBES) have been established.
Expanding a participatory approach from the local/national scale to international
mechanisms is considered to be one of the goals of future institutional changes.
5.4 Strengthening Education and Adaptive Learning
The environmental uncertainty surrounding us can be reduced not only by institu-

tions but also by the accumulation of knowledge (North 2005). In this regard,
strengthening education and adaptive learning is an effective approach for building
the capacity of various actors to solve various social problems. On the other hand,
the knowledge we have accumulated so far exceeds the amount that one person can
learn in a lifetime. Also, the division and specialization of knowledge generating
scientists have created a division of knowledge, often making it difficult to integrate
and use diverse knowledge for problem-solving (Hayek 1979; North 2005). Thus, it
is important not only to create new knowledge, but also to integrate available
knowledge and to provide a comprehensive overview of the knowledge necessary
to solve a problem. As an effort in this direction, we wrote this chapter and tried to
systematize the understanding of human decision-making that should be shared
among stakeholders struggling with solving various social problems. Through
deepening the understanding of the natural environment by natural science, we
have developed various technologies to deal with the natural environment and
reduced uncertainty. Similarly, by deepening our understanding of human deci-
sion-making and behavior, we can develop ways to better coordinate human rela-
tionships and human social actions and reduce uncertainty about the human
environment (Gigerenzer 2007).
The whole body of knowledge we have accumulated throughout human history is
called the collective brain (Henrich 2017). Cognitive abilities of a human individual
are not always superior to an individual chimpanzee, but owing to our ability of
using language and the collective brain, we have built prosperity through civilization
and solved various problems throughout human history. Then, how can we enhance
individuals' learning abilities and better use the collective brain to create a sustain-
able society?
In the process of education and learning, we accumulate knowledge as various
memories. This memory includes declarative memory and non-declarative memory.
The former can be shared as written knowledge and used for rational judgment. On
the other hand, the latter serves as an intuitive toolbox available to individuals when
48 T. Yahara et al.
faced with challenges (Gigerenzer and Selten 2002; Gigerenzer 2007). Experts
experienced in specific fields have a wealth of non-declarative memory in this
toolbox. While opinions are divided among experts on which of our cognitive skills,
intuition, and reason, is more useful for solving problems (Gigerenzer and
Gaissmaier 2011; Haidt 2012; Greene 2013; Marewski et al. 2013), the usual but
obvious answer is that both are important. As emphasized by Bazerman and Watkins
(2004), decisions that rely only on intuition tend to result in failures due to various
cognitive biases. On the other hand, the reason is thought to be the main driver of
reducing violence throughout human history (Pinker 2011) and improving our
societies in many other aspects (Pinker 2018). Greene (2013) suggested that
switching between intuition (auto mode) and reason (manual mode) depending on
the situation, maybe a useful way of mediating social conflicts, by combining the
advantages of the two cognitive systems. However, recent advances in neuroscience
showed that fast response by intuition and slow response associated with attention
and cognition are sequential and highly integrated (Schultz 2016).
As an evolved organism, we are adaptive learners always pursuing positive
rewards. A reward is broadly defined as “an object, event, stimulus, situation, or
activity that generates positive learning, induces approach behavior, is maximized in
economic decisions, and evokes positive emotions such as pleasure and desire”
(Schultz 2017). In our reward-pursuing behavior, we have a prediction on a reward
level, and often face an error that means a discrepancy between what is happening
and what is predicted to happen. If an error is more beneficial than a prediction, we
are motivated to pursue a signal associated with more rewards. This is a process of
reinforcement learning based on a positive reward prediction error signaling that is
driven by fast and slow dopamine responses in our brain (Schultz 2016). To advance
citizens' adaptive learning for sustainability, therefore, we need to provide adequate
rewards, and a goal is one of the most hopeful rewards because our human actions
are mostly goal directed (Snyder 2015). SDGs are examples of such goals. To make
those goals more effective for motivating citizen’s interest and goal-directed behav-
ior, we need to show that those goals are achievable.
5.5 Acting Based on Hope Rather than Fear for a Sustainable

Future
A positively motivated state for a particular goal is called hope. According to the
hope theory (Snyder 2015), hope is based on an interactive sense of goal-directed
energy and successful pathways. When people face difficulties to achieve a goal,
high-hope people can find plausible alternate pathways and have positive emotions
stemming from perceptions of successful goal pursuit. On the other hand, low-hope
people fail to find alternate pathways and are trapped with negative emotions as a
product of unsuccessful goal pursuit. An important role of scientists is to identify the
pathway to success and to give the public high-hope.
We have solved some problems and made better societies at least in part although
we are still certainly facing many difficult problems. Yunus et al. (2010) pointed out
this fact in his seminal book “Social Business Revolution” and emphasized the
importance to make a wish list for a better society and make efforts to realize those
goals, rather than worrying about pessimistic predictions. His wish list is similar to
SDGs that are now globally agreed. Another perspective for a positive change of the
world has been repeatedly emphasized by Hans Rosling, a creator of Gapminder
(https://www.gapminder.org/), through his influential TED talks (see also Rosling
et al. 2018). Gapminder is an attractive tool for visualizing changes in the world’s
population and various statistics related to it. Rosling used Gapminder to point out
that with the development of the economy, child survival increased in many coun-
tries, the number of children per woman decreased, and the human population is
turning from increasing to decreasing. Countries that have contributed significantly
to global population growth are poor African countries with low child survival and
high numbers of children per woman. However, many countries in Africa are getting
out of this situation and are following the trajectory of many other countries toward
higher child survival and fewer children per woman. Gapminder convincingly shows
that the crisis of population growth and the food crisis are solvable issues. The
modern food problem stems from the fact that the product is not delivered to those
who need it, rather than a lack of productivity. Following Rosling, Max Roser
visualized on the website “Our World in Data” (https://ourworldindata.org/) that
various positive changes are taking place in the global community. Ridley (2010),
see also 2015) argued that humanity has achieved prosperity through the evolution
of social systems that enabled continuous innovations through non-zero sum games
of exchanging knowledge and trading goods. According to him, the modern time is
the most flourished in human history and is even getting better.
In parallel with these claims, many scientists have gathered evidence supporting
that the world is getting better, and argued that our society can be transformed
toward a sustainable future by making further efforts. Among them are Banerjee,
Duflo, and Kremer who won the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
“for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.” Reviewing their
research findings, Banerjee and Duflo (2011) published a book entitled “Poor
Economics,” and clarified that there is no general method for effectively supporting
developing countries, but by devising effective methods according to individual
conditions, various subsidies certainly contribute to development. In particular, the
psychological status and the various difficulties in daily life of poverty people are
beyond the imagination of people without poverty in developed countries. This
knowledge of understanding their specific circumstances is a clue to solution and
our decision science has a similar principle to them on a hands-on approach.
In 2011, two other scholars argued that the world is getting better. First, Pinker
(2011) gave numerous evidence that violence is decreasing throughout human
history, demonstrating that modern society is in an era of expanding human rights
that should be called a “rights revolution.” Second, Kenny (2011) gave evidence on
further social issues and claimed that the world is “Getting better.” Following these
books published in 2011, further publications including “The Big Ratchet” on
50 T. Yahara et al.
agricultural production (DeFries 2014), “How Science Makes Us Better” (Shermer

2015), “Progress” in globalization (Norberg 2016), and “Enlightenment Now”
(Pinker 2018) have provided more convincing evidence that the world is improving.
Of course, these achievements are the result of continuous efforts, and further
stronger efforts are needed to make the world more sustainable. However, rather than
a message that appeals to the negative emotion such as fear and threat that the world
is facing a crisis, it is better to convey a positive and hopeful message that we can
improve the world based on lessons learned from past successes. Negative messages
can be effective for the purpose of drawing more attention to an issue, but may have
the opposite effect for the purpose of persuading or changing behavior (Lang 2006).
This is because the fear response arises from the negative messages leading to fight–
flight or freeze reactions, which are useless in solving problems (Moser and Dilling
2004). Further, negative messages may diminish the beneficial effects of positive
emotions associated with hope and consequently keep people away from the prob-
lem or even increase skepticism about the existence of the problem (Fischer et al.
2012; O’Neill and Nicholson-Cole 2009). Thus, negative messages may strengthen
status quo bias (Samuelson and Zeckhauser 1988) or normalcy bias (Omer and Alon
1994). Moreover, when a negative message arouses fear, the neural signal may skip
the cortex, which is linked to cognitive processes associated with creativity
(McDonald 2018). This means that negative messages may prevent coming up
with creative solutions for the problem.
We scientists need to avoid excessive fear messages, but that does not mean
ignoring global issues. We instead believe education and hopeful messages are two
effective factors in shaping public awareness and changing human behavior for
solving the global issues such as climate change. Education can promote the rational
thinking (Gigerenzer 2014, 2015), and can also debias positive illusions (Taylor and
Brown 1994). Lee et al. (2015) showed that “educational attainment is the single
strongest predictor of climate change awareness.” However, in the top 100 universi-
ties and liberal arts colleges in the United States, the probability that a student takes
at least one climate change course via the core curriculum is as low as 0.17. On the
other hand, the public knows too little about the science of climate change, and
political affiliation and political ideology had a large effect for climate change beliefs
(Kahn et al. 2012; Hornsey et al. 2016). Thus, we need to advance education to
change some conservative skepticism students and citizens about climate change. In
this education, it is important to show hopeful pathways to mitigate and adapt to
climate change because hopeful message with a concrete countermeasure is effective
for leading behavior change (Fischer et al. 2012; O’Neill and Nicholson-Cole 2009).
The hope for a better future not only plays as an important role for motivating people
to participate in actions that contribute to solutions (Moser and Dilling 2004), but
also affects the self-efficacy of people who believe that their actions affect the
resolution of global issues such as the climate change (Armstrong et al. 2018). The
same goes for solving many other issues presented in SDGs.
5.6 Evolution of Institutions and Knowledge Toward

a Sustainable Future
We humans are the only species that developed sophisticated civilization on earth.
Through this civilization process, humans have changed the global environment
significantly. However, humans have not only continued to destroy nature, but have
also made efforts to use it wisely and make it sustainable. Agriculture, first started in
the fertile crescent, can be seen as the first attempt to use natural resources sustain-
ably (Yahara 2011). In the fertile crescent, a balance between agricultural production
and the natural ecosystems had been maintained until it was broken under the rapid
population growth under modernization (Jaradat 1998). Agricultural production has
enabled the establishment of a state with various institutions (Diamond 1997), and
those institutions contributed to decrease violence (Pinker 2011). Also, the accumu-
lation of knowledge associated with agriculture prompted the development of early
scientific efforts including biology, humanity, mathematics, physics, and metaphys-
ics. For example, Aristotle’s Historia Animalium and Theophrastus’s Historia
Plantarum written in the fourth century BC were the first systematization of Zoology
and Botany, respectively. In the latter, Theophrastus described the techniques of
ancient Greeks to regenerate olives and other plants in a sustainable manner. Since
the first civilization in the fertile crescent, humans have continually improved
institutions and knowledge and this process can be viewed as cultural evolution
(Henrich and McElreath 2003; Ridley 2016; Henrich 2017; Wilson 1975).
One of the most influential human-generated knowledge is Darwin’s theory of
evolution. It has enabled a unified understanding of the whole world of biodiversity,
as well as an understanding of how the human body and mind are designed by
natural selection. Furthermore, evolutionary theory has proved useful in understand-
ing social transformation as cultural evolution. Biological evolution and cultural
evolution consist of five comparable phases (Fig. 1.8). In the first phase, an individ-
ual in a biological population acquires a new mutation, and an individual in a society
conceives a new idea. In the second phase, a new mutation is combined with existing
mutations in the process of recombination, and a new idea is combined with existing
ideas in the process of ideation, i.e., creation of an advanced idea by combination. In
the third phase, recombination produces phenotypic changes of an individual, while
creation of an advanced idea results in changes of various social elements including
institutions, knowledge, technology, goods, arts, and language. These elements can
be regarded as “social phenotypes.” In the fourth phase, a particular phenotype
increases in a biological population by natural selection, and a particular social
phenotype spreads in a society by social selection. In the fifth phase, adaptive
evolution takes place in a biological population and social transformation proceeds
in a human community.
Adaptive evolution and social transformation have two important similarities.
First, there is no ultimate goal in either process. Second, which phenotype is
advantageous varies with time and space. On the other hand, social evolution is
unique in that it is driven by human’s ability to predict, design, and change the
52 T. Yahara et al.
Mutation Idea
Recombination Combination
Phenotypic change Social change
Natural selection Social selection
Adaptive evolution Transformation

Fig. 1.8 Comparison of biological evolution and cultural evolution
future. Therefore, human societies are capable of realizing not only short-term
adaptation to the current environment, but also long-term adaptation to future
environmental changes. Social evolution is unique also in that it is driven not only
by competition but also by the high degree of human cooperation. Consequently,
social elements beneficial not only to individuals but also to society as a whole have
been selected. These two uniquenesses have driven the process of continuous
improvement in human society.
In this conceptual chapter, we argued that decision-making and adaptive learning
through the IDEA cycle is effective to accumulate new knowledge and improve
institutions under the cooperation of various stakeholders. We also argued that
evolutionary biology or Darwin’s idea is helpful to develop solution-oriented trans-
disciplinary science by integrating natural and social sciences. Based on a review of
cognitive nature behind human conflicts and cooperation, we proposed a guideline
for co-design in transdisciplinary projects. Further, we reviewed past successes in
adaptive comanagement of natural resources and demonstrated that institutions,
knowledge, and social ties are the keys to transforming our society toward a
sustainable future. Finally, we proposed five strategies for transforming our society
by connecting local and global efforts toward a sustainable future. We are surely
facing global environmental problems, the global threats of emergent disease, the
global risk of stagnation, and many other issues that are embedded in SDGs. At first
glance, these problems seem difficult to solve. However, all of these problems are
resolvable by improving social elements including institutions and knowledge and
strengthening social ties. The key role of scientists in this resolution process is to
integrate the various disciplines needed to solve problems, show potential solutions,
and present specific options and pathways to a solution. Our efforts to systematize
Decision Science by integrating natural, social, and humanity sciences using evolu-
tionary theory as an integrator will contribute to this resolution process. We believe
this is one of the most promising ways to support global efforts for transforming our
society into a sustainable future.
Acknowledgement This work was supported by a grant JPMJRX16F1 from the Research Institute
of Science and Technology for the Society (RISTEX) of Japan Science and Technology Agency
(JST) as part of the Future Earth programs.
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Part II
Lessons Learned from Trans-Disciplinary
Studies in Local Communities
Chapter 2
How Can We Develop a Co-design,
Co-production, and Co-delivery Process
Toward a Sustainable Local Society?
Comparative Study on Transdisciplinary
Research Projects
Yasunori Hanamatsu, Takahiro Fujiwara, Nariaki Onda, Tatsuro Sato,

Tomomi Yamashita, and Fumihiko Yokota
Abstract This chapter will introduce the results of a comparative, interdisciplinary

joint research on transdisciplinary research (TD), conducted by three social science
researchers and three natural science researchers who work at the Decision Science
Center for a Sustainable Society, Kyushu University (Institute of Decision Science
for a Sustainable Society, Kyushu University, IDS3). Since the beginning of IDS3’s
Future Earth project, or before the project became a global research program, all of
us had engaged with TD research in our own local fields and disciplines, to solve
local social problems while interacting with various social stakeholders. Our disci-
plines include public health, forest management, natural regeneration in paddy
fields, small hydropower generation, local governance, and tourism promotion.
While sharing the results of our TD projects among ourselves, we found some
common questions and problem perspectives on Future Earth, mainly from the
point of view of social science. In this chapter, we will present the outcome of our
Y. Hanamatsu (*)
Faculty of Law, Kyushu International University, Kitakyushu, Japan
e-mail: [email protected]
T. Fujiwara
N. Onda
T. Sato
Disaster Risk Reduction Research Center, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University,
Fukuoka, Japan
T. Yamashita
Academic Research and Industrial Collaboration Management Office, Kyushu University,
Fukuoka, Japan
F. Yokota
© The Author(s) 2021 67

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_2
68 Y. Hanamatsu et al.
comparative joint research, including our common questions, perspectives, and

problem setting on Future Earth and TD research. Then, we will propose some
hypothetical indicators for the conditions and requirements for achieving successful
“co-design/co-production/co-delivery.”
Keywords Stakeholding · Scaling · Framing · Coordination · Sensitivity ·

Legitimacy
1 Introduction
This part will introduce the results of a comparative, interdisciplinary joint research
on Transdisciplinary Research (TD), conducted by three social science researchers
and three natural science researchers who work at the Decision Science Center for a
Sustainable Society, Kyushu University (Institute of Decision Science for a Sustain-
able Society, Kyushu University, IDS3).
Since the beginning of IDS3’s Future Earth project, or before the project became
a global research program, all of us had engaged with TD research in our own local
fields and disciplines, to solve local social problems while interacting with various
social stakeholders. Our disciplines include public health, forest management, nat-
ural regeneration in paddy fields, small hydropower generation, local governance,
and tourism promotion. While sharing the results of our TD projects among our-
selves, we found some common questions and problem perspectives on Future
Earth, mainly from the point of view of social science. Then, we set up a collabo-
rative research group in the summer of 2017 and held several study meetings to
answer our own questions.
In this chapter, we will present the outcome of our comparative joint research,
including our common questions, perspectives, and problem setting on Future Earth
and TD research. Then, we will propose some hypothetical indicators for the
conditions and requirements for achieving successful “co-design/co-production/co-
delivery” (Future Earth 2013).
2 Questions and Perspectives

2.1 Scale-Sensitivity
The first problem perspective is the geographical scale of the research topic. Future
Earth aims to resolve global issues such as global warming and global-scale loss of
biodiversity. We can frequently see several words that focus on the global scale in
the Future Earth-related documents such as “dynamic planet,” “global sustainabil-
ity,” “global change,” “global innovation,” “globally recognized model,” and
“global environmental and social change” (Future Earth 2013, 2014). The Future
2 How Can We Develop a Co-design, Co-production, and Co-delivery Process Toward a. . . 69
Earth Initial Science Report clearly states that Future Earth will limit its scope to
research that helps solve global issues (Future Earth 2013). On the other hand, the
effects and responses to non-global geographical and spatial scales such as national,
regional, and local are also mentioned. However, they are recognized just as an
“object” affected by global environmental change, or as a “means” to take action
toward global sustainability. In particular, local scales and actors must be mobilized
for global problem solving, and local-scale initiatives are expected to be “scaled up”
to a global scale (Future Earth 2013, 2014).
However, in our experience of TD research for problem-solving on a local site,
various initiatives for sustainability on local sites are not necessarily taken for the
purpose of resolving global issues. Sustainability problems that arise only within a
local context are certainly present and being tackled on a local scale, in line with the
actual needs of the relevant local communities. They may eventually lead to global
sustainability; however, this is not their main purpose. Local stakeholders are rarely
aware of the scale-up logic. They may use global knowledge such as academic
knowledge in the problem-solving process. However, resolving local issues in
cooperation with local actors to meet local needs does not aim at global sustainabil-
ity. Then, are such local-scale initiatives toward local sustainability not covered by
Future Earth research?
How is the hierarchy that the upper, global scale is given priority over the lower,
local-scale justified? (Jasanoff 2010; O’Brien and Barnett 2013; Turnhout and
Boonman-Person 2012; Jonas 2015). Environmental changes are extending on a
global scale, yet the act of prioritizing the global scale as the main object and purpose
of problem-solving creates yet another problem. Scale-setting or scale-framing that
gives a priori priority to the global scale is a political action in itself, referred to as
“politics of scale” by scholars of political geography (Kurtz 2003; Smith 1992;
Swyngedouw 1997, 2004; Yohannan et al. 2014). By putting too much emphasis on
global environmental change and sustainability, Future Earth seems to have fallen
into a trap of “scale politics” whether consciously or unconsciously.
On the other hand, are there any local problems or solutions that do not directly
have global implications but are not at all related to the problem of global scale, both
physically and epistemologically? From the perspective of political geography,
global is not a scale that exists independently of the local scale; rather, it is an
accumulation of locality. Therefore, we can say that the reality of the global is
“multi-local” (Herod 2011). On the other hand, from the viewpoint of governance,
the idea of “multi-level governance” is important. In this concept, various govern-
mental and non-state actors that have a cross-scale jurisdiction of global, regional,
international, national, and local, will set and solve a problem while always
interacting in a networked system (Bache and Flinders 2004; Latham 2002). In
addition, the concept of multilevel governance does not employ any hierarchy that
prefers a particular scale. It assumes that the political relationship between scales is
“flat” and that different scales or frames can coexist (Jonas 2015; Yohannan et al.
2014). Therefore, the problem setting itself, which might initially focus on a single
scale, is likely to change by interacting or communicating with other scales.
In this way, resolving local issues based on local needs in a local field should be
included in the scope of Future Earth research, without premising that such local
initiatives will directly contribute to sustainability on a global scale or will be scaled
up to the global scale. Otherwise, the research range of Future Earth will be very
limited and the value of Future Earth research will be reduced, while seemingly
geographical scale is extended to the global scale.
2.2 Can Science Transform Society for Sustainability?
The second perspective is the relationship between “social transformation to sus-

tainability” and the role of science. Future Earth aims for social transformation
toward global sustainability. For that purpose, Future Earth will “deliver products
and services that we societal partners need to meet these challenges,” and these
“products and services” refer to “integrated Earth system models” and “science-
based data, tools, and resources” (Future Earth 2014). Furthermore, Future Earth will
“pioneer approaches to co-design; and co-produce solutions-oriented science,
knowledge, and innovation for global sustainable development” (Future Earth
2014). Such “science” and “knowledge” refer to not only natural sciences but also
to those co-created with social science, humanities, and social partners (partners in
society). However, it is assumed that some scientific or technological models and
tools are developed, and based on them, social transformation is promoted.
Why do we have to transform society based on scientific knowledge, tools, and
assessment? Are scientific methods and knowledge really needed to enhance the
sustainability of society? Is it impossible to create a sustainable society without
science? (Brown et al. 2010). Is it possible for science and scientists, who value
neutrality and objectivity, to be a player in social transformation, along with other
social stakeholders? (Pielke 2007).
Future Earth stands on the premise of the possibility and legitimacy of social
transformation based on science. In this respect, Future Earth depends on the
assumption that science will respond to the needs of and be useful for society.
However, at the root of the concept of “useful science for society”, there is an
excessive expectation for science, as if scientific development will automatically
contribute to the solution of problems such as global environmental problems
(Asayama et al. 2017). From the viewpoint of social science, it is necessary to
question the premise itself. In other words, the usefulness, efficacy, and acceptability
of science or scientific methods for society must be considered and verified. Further,
one should ask, on what conditions scientific knowledge, tools, and resources can
help to improve the sustainability of society? In short, one must critically reconsider
the premise “science can transform society for sustainability.”
The problem of environmental change and sustainability—Future Earth’s main
target—is a problem of scientific uncertainty and a conflict of values. Therefore, it is
often said that it is difficult to solve this problem only by the power of science. Such
inherent problems in science have been noted in recent years as “trans-science”
(Weinberg 1972), “post-normal science” (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1993), “wicked

problems” (Brown et al. 2010), and so on. This also indicates, on the contrary, that
various nonscientific elements can influence social transformation. In that sense, the
validity of the scientific method, the reasonable range of science toward social
transformation, and the relationship between “scientific” and “unscientific” must
be re-examined in resolving sustainability problems at all scales.
2.3 Interdisciplinary Research
The third perspective is the method of cooperation between natural science and
social science in Future Earth research. Future Earth does not necessarily look at
research only from a natural scientific perspective. It also strongly urges social
scientists to collaborate with social stakeholders and links with social policies and
practices (Stafford-Smith et al. 2012). In addition, it also recommends the complete
“integration” of all scientific disciplines, including not only natural and social
sciences but also humanities and science technology (Future Earth 2013, 2014).
However, in the Future Earth documents, such “integration” first assumes the
problem setting or goal of “global sustainability” and “social transformation” as
set up by natural scientists. Then, it requires social scientists to develop a method to
promote social transformation, to analyze and evaluate social issues and impacts
arising in the course of social transformation, and to identify sociocultural, eco-
nomic, institutional, and political barriers that discourage social transformation
(Future Earth 2014).
However, is the role of social science only to implement the research design
drawn by the natural sciences and to carry out a “saucer” to examine the social effect
and influence of the research implementation? (Werlen 2015; Hanamatsu 2012). Is
social science a contractor for the work of developing methods to solve the problems
set by natural science and practice at the social level? Have social scientists been
given sufficient opportunity to share a critical examination of the appropriateness of
the problem settings and goals presented by natural science? (Werlen 2015). Fun-
damentally, the role of social science is to critically examine and recognize from all
angles all phenomena, ideas, and representations that arise or may arise in human
society. In that case, social scientists must examine the Future Earth project itself and
critically reconsider Future Earth’s way of problem setting such as global sustain-
ability and social transformation. While Future Earth is aimed at “solutions-oriented
research” (Future Earth 2014), social science is quite sensitive about who, and for
what purpose, determined the problem setting and goal so that a solution can be
offered afterward. In other words, we must look at the natural scientific view of
“nature” and “world” that appears in the method of problem setting.
Similarly, the recent discussion of the “anthropocene” is based on the image and
framing of the “desirable climate” or “desirable environment” provided by natural
scientists, emphasizing the tremendous damage of climate change and the urgent
need for a response. This trend requests all humankind and society to tackle such
urgent problems as if such a contribution was “fatal” and “inevitable” (Zalasiewicz

et al. 2010). Even though climate change came to be extensively discussed in the
political realm, it has been pointed out that “de-politicization” has occurred in that it
becomes difficult to put objections to the problem setting and recognition
(Swyngedouw 2011; Lövbrand et al. 2015). In this sense, social science must not
only reveal the ideal way of using science and technology from the perspective of
society, the appropriate position of scientists in society, and the conditions in which
society accepts science and technology, but it should also re-examine critically and
politically how the problem setting by natural science will affect people and society
(Swyngedouw 2014).
Interdisciplinary research and integration of scientific disciplines do not imply
that one discipline should capture the other. It is crucial to recognize that natural
sciences and social sciences have their own unique logic in their purpose, culture,
object, perspective, and methodologies. This is the starting point that could turn
interdisciplinary research into a fruitful success (Werlen 2015). Three social scien-
tists from our research group have been actively involved in collaborative research
with natural science researchers. They have conducted cross-disciplinary research
activities while utilizing the knowledge of both social science and natural science.
The other three are natural scientists; however, since they have been involved in the
local community for their research for a long time, they have a wealth of social
experience and insight into society. Therefore, we thought that we should all share
this understanding of interdisciplinary research and undertake a critical study of
Future Earth research where the impact of natural scientific ideas seems to be strong,
from the perspective of social science.
2.4 What Is Society? Who Are Stakeholders?
The fourth perspective is the need for a concrete consideration of “society” and
“social stakeholders.” Future Earth recommends collaboration between science and
society in response to global environmental change and realization of global sus-
tainability (Future Earth 2013). However, in the Future Earth documents, the image
of “society” is unclear; it is a general and abstract image. As a result, it seems to
assume a planar, flat, abstract, and single society. However, society is originally
diverse in context, multi-layered, and individually specific. It includes families,
companies, schools, circles, civic organizations, settlements, districts, municipali-
ties, states, national relations, regions, and the global. There exists different type of
societies at all scales. What kind of society can Future Earth envision for its purpose?
In addition, Future Earth recommends that the knowledge necessary for social
transformation should be created together with social partners (partners in society, or
societal partners) or “stakeholders” (Future Earth 2014). What kind of people and
organizations does Future Earth assume as partners and stakeholders in society?
While any person who has interests in a problem or issue can be considered a
stakeholder, what kind of stakeholders does Future Earth research expect to coop-
erate with?
The Future Earth Initial Science Report enumerates major stakeholder groups in
Future Earth studies: academic research (scientists, research institutes, universities,
and scientific committees), research funders, governments (national, regional, and
international), development groups (e.g., the World Bank), business and industry,
media, and civil society (e.g., NGOs) (Future Earth 2013). As such, Future Earth
seems to focus on people and organizations that have an influence on global social
transformation and that can rationally act (Future Earth 2014). However, can we say
that we have successfully collaborated with the “society” itself only by cooperating
with specific governmental agencies or NGOs? Is this not just working with some of
the social entities that exist at a certain level or scale of “society”? In other words,
only a convenient subject that is useful for the transformation of society can be
selected and recognized as a “stakeholder.” As we will see later, such a political
selection of stakeholders should be called “stakeholding” (Freeman et al. 2010;
Mitchell et al. 1997). How should such “stakeholding” be done in Future Earth
studies?
Also, are we researchers and scientists well aware that we will participate in a
collaborative work as one of stakeholders who stand on equal footing with other
stakeholders? Is it possible for scientists to participate as a stakeholder with a
substantial interest and simultaneously be able to balance the “neutrality” and
“objectivity” that scientists consider important? Furthermore, is it possible for
scientists and researchers to be responsible for the role of the coordinator who is
essential for working with society? The position of researchers and scientists in the
collaborative process is a critical matter. However, Future Earth does not pay
attention to this point.
The tendency of Future Earth to simplify and overgeneralize the concepts of
“society” and “social stakeholder” is indeed paradoxical. Environmental and sus-
tainability research deal with environmental change at the global level, and an urgent
response to it as “the problem of human dimensions” (Future Earth 2013). As a
result, on the one hand, the need for an urgent response to environmental change at
the global scale has come to be properly understood; on the other hand, understand-
ing of the diversity, multilayeredness, and dynamic change in society, and the social
sensitivity to various concrete people and groups who live and work in a society is
being lost (O’Brien and Barnett 2013). In other words, the greater emphasis on the
influence of environmental change on the “human species” conversely deprives
people of a concrete concern for individuals, societies, and stakeholders. This
trend will reduce the value and scope of Future Earth research that seeks to
collaborate with society.
The kind of society in which we often collaborate in TD research is the “local
society.” In such local societies, the local government and local businesses, illus-
trated by Future Earth as major stakeholders, are just part of the society; they are not
representative of the local society. Then, is it possible to say that we collaborate with
society itself by merely cooperating with such kind of people and organizations?
Local people or residents are the main components of local society. In the
stakeholders’ list of Future Earth documents, local people seem to be classified as

“civil society.” However, “civil society” is a very ambiguous and controversial
concept, and there is a wide variety of definition and scope in what kind of persons
are actually contained in “civil society” (Ehrenberg 2017). For example, a subject
that is independent of the government, forms a nonprofit organization, and actively
and rationally participates in a public political space is often referred to as civil
society. In Future Earth documents, NGOs and indigenous peoples are often cited as
civil society. Therefore, it is understood that Future Earth considers civil society as
an active subject in social transformation. However, people living in a local society
are not only such active residents. There are both “good citizens” and “bad citizens.”
It is often the case that many local people are regular citizens who are non-rational
and indifferent to public matters (Edwards 2014). Actual collaboration with local
society always requires a close relationship with not only active citizens or organi-
zations but also concrete individuals who are, in some cases, indifferent or negative
to public matters. Therefore, it is not possible to talk about collaboration with local
society without communicating, discussing and cooperating with a concrete local
society composed of such various individuals and organizations. Our research
experience with the local society is likely to provide new insights into Future
Earth research that tends to emphasize collaboration with society through a general
and abstract image.
2.5 Taking the “Co-design/Co-production/Co-delivery”

Process Seriously
Finally, the fifth perspective is about the meaning and purpose of “co-design/co-
production/co-delivery” between science and society in Future Earth research. As
mentioned above, Future Earth aims at “solutions-oriented research” and is intended
to acquire scientific knowledge to respond to environmental changes and sustain-
ability at the global scale. To obtain such scientific knowledge, scientists and social
stakeholders are asked to cooperate with each other for “co-design/co-production/co-
delivery” of knowledge (Future Earth 2014). In other words, Future Earth regards
“co-design/co-production/co-delivery” as a means to obtain scientific knowledge
that can lead to the resolution of problems set up by Future Earth. “Knowledge” (not
necessarily scientific) which is obtained by “co-design/co-production/co-delivery”
with social stakeholders, and “scientific knowledge, insights, data, and tools that
scientists will acquire” are clearly distinguished. Here, unfortunately, Future Earth
does not recognize that we can form a new type of knowledge that combines the
extrascientific knowledge, perspectives, and experiences of social stakeholders, with
the scientific data and the knowledge of academic experts (Van der Hel 2016). In
Future Earth, “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” in collaboration between sci-
ence and society is merely a means to justify that science is relevant and useful to
society by showing that science is trying to meet the needs of society and that society
accepts science as its user (Van der Hel 2016). Therefore, the knowledge obtained in
the process of “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” is neglected, and just the fact

and alibi that “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” of knowledge is successfully
done might be overemphasized.
However, as explained throughout this part, from our experiences of TD research
on local sites, “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” is not a justification for the
usefulness of science; it is a direct way to improve sustainability in local societies.
The reason is that any effort to improve the sustainability in a local society is
virtually impossible without trying to achieve the “co-design/co-production/co-
delivery” with local stakeholders.
In recent years, in Japan, collaboration between universities including scientists
and researchers and the local society is currently being actively implemented as an
important objective, because “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” with the local
society will have a great educational effect on university students and may also
contribute to the revitalization of the local society. In such cases, the goal is not to
acquire scientific knowledge or justify the usefulness of science.
Moreover, “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” with society cannot be easily
achieved. It requires a lot of time, effort, money, and intellectual resources. In other
words, “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” with society is not easy enough to be
regarded as merely a means to acquire scientific knowledge for global sustainability
(Moser 2016). In that sense, collaborative “co-design/co-production/co-delivery”
with society is not an alibi for scientists but a major research activity and objective for
achieving a sustainable local society.
On the other hand, science should be regarded as a factor that might work in the
collaborative “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” process. In other words, sci-
ence or scientific knowledge can be perceived as one of the driving forces and means
to promote successful “co-design/co-production/co-delivery.”
In this way, our questions on Future Earth and TD research from a social science
perspective are as follows. What kind of conditions, requirements, factors, and
processes can enable “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” with society to success-
fully work? Does science or scientific knowledge actually work as a driving force to
promote “co-design/co-production/co-delivery?”
3 Problem Setting
Based on the above-mentioned issues, we set the following problem as a common

viewpoint of joint research. Our interdisciplinary research group worked together to
compare projects that have long tried to promote “co-design/co-production/co-deliv-
ery” with society for developing a sustainable local society. Then, we found some
common perspectives for re-examining Future Earth research and developing more
fruitful TD research. At what kind of scale does “co-design/co-production/co-deliv-
ery” tend to work better? What kind of conditions or factors are required for
successful “co-design/co-production/co-delivery?” What kind of stakeholders
should we cooperate with? What kind of processes should be followed? To sum
up, what kind of conditions, factors, and processes are necessary for a good “co-
design/co-production/co-delivery”?
The key points about this problem setting are as follows. We should focus on the
“co-design/co-production/co-delivery” process in a specific local society rather than
a general abstract society, without premising that such a process will necessarily
make a connection or direct contribution to the solution of global problems such as
climate change and global sustainability. We should also focus on what kind of
processes “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” will follow, and what we should
pay attention to during each phase of the process, rather than emphasizing a fact or
result of the “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” in a local society. Furthermore,
we must properly understand that there are various overlapping scales in a local
society (e.g., settlement, village, town, city, area, region, municipality, and prov-
ince). In addition, we must recognize that stakeholders are often specifically selected
as candidates from among the many actors or organizations, and understand that
diverse “framings” of the problem can be simultaneously constructed by each
stakeholder and that in some cases a gap or misfit can occur between these “fram-
ings.” Moreover, from the social science perspective, it is also important to consider
who should evaluate the process and results of the “co-design/co-production/co-
delivery”, because the consequences of the final assessment may change depending
on the “framing” or perspective of the evaluator.
Society is a living subject created by whimsical humans. Therefore, the condi-
tions, requirements, factors, and processes of “co-design/co-production/co-delivery”
with society are not necessarily arranged from a genuinely scientific perspective.
Likewise, other valuable knowledge that can be obtained during “co-design/co-
production/co-delivery” is not necessarily scientific. However, we think it is impor-
tant to rearrange them based on our own indicators from the social scientific
perspective. Such indicators remain hypothetical; however, they can be a useful
tool for clarifying the conditions, requirements, factors, and processes that would
ensure successful “co-design/co-production/co-delivery.”
4 Hypothetical Indicators
The indicators to measure the conditions, requirements, factors, and processes for
promoting successful “co-design/co-production” are divided into four categories.
First, Gap Analysis Indicators (GAI) verify consistency or gaps in understanding and
perception among stakeholders about the collaborative work. Second, Social Con-
sideration Indicators (SCI) show various matters requiring the attention of stake-
holders and coordinators. Third, Social Evaluation Indicators (SEI) are considered in
the social evaluation phase after the completion of co-production. Fourth, there are
other considerations classified as Additional Factors (AF).
The hypothetical indicators which seem to belong to each category are as follows.
All of these constitute a checklist that scientists and researchers need to carefully
consider when collaborating with a local society. Again, it remains hypothetical, but
we think it is the most comprehensive list of indicators to date, enumerating all the
factors that are considered important for comparing the Future Earth projects of our
joint research members (Yokota et al. 2018).
However, we understand that it may not be a complete checklist that can be
applied to other projects. In addition, we have not yet clarified which indicators are
more important than others in each phase, what the conditions must be met in any
“co-design/co-production/co-delivery” project, or whether there is a logical relation-
ship between each of the indicators. We will examine such issues in future studies.
4.1 Gap Analysis Indicators

4.1.1 Stakeholding
Are appropriate people and organizations correctly selected as “stakeholders” who

have a direct or indirect interest? How does the dynamic membership process of
including or excluding stakeholders work? Which kinds of stakeholders are selected
for what kinds of purposes? What method is used to set up a “limit” of the
appropriate stakeholder?
4.1.2 Scaling
What is the geographical, human relational, and jurisdictional scale appropriate for
dealing with the problem? How, and by whom, is such scaling set up? Does the
problem originate from and can be resolved in a single scale or does it require
multilayered scales?
4.1.3 Framing
From what point of view, and by whom, is the phenomenon recognized as a

“problem”? Do all stakeholders agree on a single frame for the problem, or is
there conflict over various possible frames? Can plural frames converge at a common
perspective and coexist or do they clash with each other?
4.1.4 Priority
Is the problem properly recognized as something that should be prioritized among a

myriad of “problems” in a society of the specific scale? Who, and by what criteria,
decides the priority of problems, and what is their process?
4.1.5 Accountability
Who is responsible or accountable for the processes and results of resolving the
problem? Is such a responsibility actually to be carried out? Do stakeholders
successfully divide and share the task of problem-solving?
4.1.6 Time Setting
How much time is allowed for resolving the problem? To what extent is the problem
an emergency? What is the time range necessary to solve the problem? Who can
decide on setting the time?
4.1.7 Transition Process
If gaps occur in indicators 4.1.1-4.1.6 between stakeholders, does the transition

process for coordinating these gaps properly function?
4.2 Social Consideration Indicators

4.2.1 Coordination Subject
Who coordinates, or who should coordinate? Is the coordination appropriate?

Scientists and researchers are not necessarily responsible for the coordinator. In
the context of independence and neutrality in science, other stakeholders (rather than
researchers or scientists) should take on the responsibility of acting as coordinators.
However, scientists or researchers may have to become coordinators reluctantly,
depending on the course of problem.
4.2.2 Social Sensitivity (Awareness of Societal Sensitivity)
Can a coordinator understand and carefully consider the human relationships,

history, culture, viewpoints of residents, and intrinsic diversity that exist in a
society? Can they fully comprehend the sensitive nature of a society?
4.2.3 Social Capital
Does a coordinator have an established relationship of mutual trust with stakeholders

and other people or organizations in local society? Do they carefully consider the
various human relationships embedded in local society? (Putnam 1993, 2000).
4.2.4 Fairness/Justice
Does a coordinator demonstrate fair consideration for each stakeholder who has a
different framing or priority in the decision-making processes?
4.2.5 Independence/Neutrality
Do stakeholders responsible for coordination roles (especially, scientists and

researchers) successfully take an independent, neutral position toward all other
stakeholders? Do they fully understand that, in some cases, they will act as one of
the stakeholders and cannot remain neutral on a problem?
4.3 Social Evaluation Indicators
4.3.1 Legitimacy
Is the result of the “co-production” to be evaluated as legitimate or relevant by the

wider society consisting of specialists, citizens, and potential stakeholders, distinct
from the internal evaluation by the stakeholders directly involved in the “co-design/
co-production” process? Would the decision-making process be regarded as legiti-
mate by an outside observer? If the result of a “co-design/co-production” project
receives a positive evaluation as legitimate by an outsider, it will be applicable to
other cases, and finally, the phase of “co-delivery” (dissemination of results) will
begin.
The indicator of legitimacy concerns both rationality (or relevance), which
requires proper processes, and traditionality (or orthodoxy), in that the “co-produc-
tion” follows the history, traditions, customs, and culture of the society (Coicaud
2002).
4.3.2 How to Decide?
How is the plan and method for the collaboration project decided?
4.3.3 Who Decides, for Whom and to Whom?
Who decides to start and implement the collaboration project, for whom and to
whom?
4.3.4 Usefulness of Science
Are scientific knowledge and technology useful and effective for the planning and
implementation of a collaborative project? How effective is the usefulness of science
and can stakeholders successfully have trust in science regarding the “co-design/co-
production/co-delivery” process distinguished from the authority or power that
specific universities, researchers, and scientists usually have? When the usefulness
of science is recognized, does it mean that the effectiveness and legitimacy of the
scientific data and knowledge itself are evaluated, or the validity and significance of
the act of “using science” are socially approved?
4.3.5 Social Sensitivity
Do stakeholders understand and carefully consider the human relationships, history,

culture, viewpoints of residents, and intrinsic diversity that exist in a society? Can
they fully comprehend the sensitive nature of a society?
4.4 Additional Factors
4.4.1 Personality
What kinds of impacts do the position, character, and personality of each stakeholder
(especially those who show important leadership) have on the “co-design/co-pro-
duction/co-delivery” process? Do the processes and results of “co-design/co-pro-
duction/co-delivery” depend on the personal factors of a stakeholder?
4.4.2 Integration of Scientific Research and Education
Is the project conducted only as “scientific research” by researchers and scientists, or

is it also combined with an educational program? In the latter case, does the
integration of scientific research and education actually promote a successful “co-
design/co-production/co-delivery” process?
5 Hypothetical Timeline
Based on the hypothetical indicators for assessing “co-design/co-production/co-

delivery” as mentioned above, Fig. 2.1 shows a hypothetical timeline of the
co-design, co-production, and co-delivery process. It also briefly indicates which
Stage 6 Stage 5 Stage 4

co-delivery start legitimacy test achievement test
improvement
application to other cases social evaluation by self-assessment
non-stakeholder entities by active stakeholders
accumulated
improvement
evaluation
improvement
problem solving on
global scale? “re-stakeholding” improvement
“restart” Stage 3
process
“going back” co-production complete
process
attempt
improvement
phen Stage 0 Stage 1 Stage 2
omen coordination
on stakeholding process
problem setting co-design start co-design complete
resident A co-production start
coordination of gaps
unknown
invisible
researcher
in framing, scaling, consensus established
company
prioritizing etc. by among stakeholders
NGO
coordinator
resident B implementation in a
flexible manner with
recognize as a prior feasibility research
driving force repeated attempts and
“problem” on local society
ex. science improvements
Fig. 2.1 Hypothetical timeline of the co-design, co-production, and co-delivery process
kind of conditions, requirements, and factors matter in which phase of the co-design/
co-production/co-delivery.
First of all, some phenomena and events occur in local communities or societies.
It is often merely a phenomenon at this point, and is not necessarily recognized as a
“problem” that should be resolved. It may be an invisible potential phenomenon in
nature or the society that no one local, such as residents or administration, is aware of
yet. In that case, some actors outside the local society may alert them to the
phenomenon. In particular, scientists have a role of scientifically examining the
meanings, mechanisms, and impacts of potential phenomena in nature and society
that are invisible to general people and finally “visualizing” an invisible phenome-
non. In this sense, the activities of outsiders, including scientists, can be a driving
force (a trigger for problem-solving) that raises awareness of a problem to people of
a local society.
In some cases, local people notice a phenomenon by themselves, and in other
cases, they are made aware by knowledge from an outsider such as scientist.
Whatever the case may be, some actors in a local society begin to understand the
meaning and influence of a phenomenon and at last recognize it as a “problem.”
Subsequently, general residents, local government, corporations, and NPOs begin to
make a “problem setting,” but at this point they still stop at “potential” stakeholders
(Stage 0).
In order to solve the problem at the beginning of the collaborative project,

“stakeholding” takes place to decide what kind of people and actors should be
selected as “stakeholders.” Each stakeholder usually has their own image of “fram-
ing,” “scaling,” and “prioritizing” the problem. They examine such images with each
other and then the “co-design” phase begins (Stage 1). In the co-design process,
stakeholders will check if the factors shown in the Gap Analysis Indicators (GAI) are
consistently shared between themselves. When gaps between stakeholders are
found, the coordination of these gaps is carried out under the leadership of a
coordinator.
If the coordination of these gaps is concluded successfully and some kind of
consensus or agreement is established, we can say that “co-design” has been
achieved, and the next phase of “co-production” can start (Stage 2). However, it is
essential that by the start of “co-production,” all stakeholders should complete the
work of reconciling their interests through communication and gaining a sense of
mutual trust and satisfaction.
After that, stakeholders cooperate with each other to implement the project. This
process proceeds in a flexible manner with repeated attempts and improvements. The
reason is that social factors, such as interests, human relations, and financial prob-
lems among stakeholders, are usually unexpected and may impede or change the
project plan. If a certain result is obtained while gradually improved, we can say that
the “co-production” has been achieved (Stage 3).
However, this is not the end of the collaborative “co-design/co-production”
process. “Co-production” rarely achieves complete problem resolution, and in
many cases, it is necessary to repeat the “co-design/co-production” process. There-
fore, at the stage where some kind of “co-production” outcome is obtained tempo-
rarily, internal evaluation or self-assessment will be carried out by the stakeholders
who have jointly implemented the project thus far (Stage 4). Here, they evaluate
whether the results of “co-production” are sufficient for the goal, if there was no
problem in the “co-production” process. Then, such a temporal evaluation will be
reflected in the next round of “co-production” in the form of a correction or
improvement to the project. If they think that the result of “co-production” did not
produce enough results, they may go back and again try the “co-design” process. In
that case, it is not just a correction or improvement, but restarting the project from the
“co-design” phase.
After a certain level of satisfactory results have been achieved while repeating
internal evaluations, social evaluations by outsiders or non-stakeholder entities will
be carried out (Stage 5). The internal evaluation in Stage 4 is self-evaluation by
active stakeholders, and in some cases may fall into the category of “self-satisfac-
tion.” They may feel relieved that the project has been completed, and the assess-
ment of whether the results actually contribute to problem-solving might be
neglected. In addition, if the project was initiated with inappropriate “stakeholding,”
and those who should participate in the project were not able to, assessment from the
perspective of excluded potential stakeholders will be very important. Likewise, it
may be evaluated as imperfect because the problem should be dealt with on a larger
or smaller scale. In that case, the appropriateness of “scaling” is reconsidered. In
addition, internal stakeholders are likely to remain interested in problem-solving in

their own society and are not interested in whether the results of their project can be
applied in other cases. Therefore, it will also be important to see how this project will
be evaluated from an outsider’s perspective.
Thus, in order to examine the possibility of falling into “self-satisfaction,” the
relevance of “stakeholding,” “scaling,” and applicability to other cases, the view-
point of outsiders or non-stakeholder entities is critically important. Social evalua-
tion is open to other potential stakeholders, mass media, residents in other local
societies, and people on national or global level who are interested in the problem.
The project will become “legitimate” only after it is fully evaluated from these
external viewpoints. If it fails to obtain legitimacy, it may need to be improved,
revised, or restarted. It might be required to go back to “co-production” (Stage 2) or
“co-design” (Stage 1), or further return to the very first phase of “stakeholding”
(Stage 0). More importantly, it is natural to repeat this process of going back and
forth. Only after the “co-design/co-production” is repeated, re-examined, and
improved, and if it passes the legitimacy test in social evaluation, will there be a
possibility of applying it in other places. This phase is called “co-delivery” in the
Future Earth framework (Stage 6).
Depending on the nature of the problem, generality of the solution process, and
legitimacy of the final result, the conditions, and requirements for a successful “co-
design/co-production” demonstrated in a certain society may spread to other regions.
If such “co-delivery” cases are accumulated, they may have an impact on problem-
solving on a global scale. In other words, although local stakeholders are not
necessarily aiming to “scale up,” the results of “co-design/co-production” projects
and their implications may eventually diffuse to the global scale.
If this is the case, those who are responsible for contributing to global sustain-
ability through the Future Earth framework are not local stakeholders involved in
“co-design/co-production,” but external subjects or non-stakeholder entities who
join in the social evaluation of local projects and consider their applicability to
other areas.
6 Hypothetical Outline Map
Figure 2.2 shows a hypothetical outline map that reconstructs the timeline of the “co-
design/co-production/co-delivery” process from the perspective of the relationship
between each phase. This figure will provide a clearer understanding of what
conditions and factors are required in each phase of the collaborative process.
As a brief summary of this chapter, we will point out the six most important
matters related to the hypothetical indicators of the conditions or requirements for a
successful “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” process and future research
issues.
First, it is very natural that various “gaps” arise between stakeholders in the
process. Therefore, the starting point of “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” is to
Co‐Delivery
ᶉ
ᶈ evaluation
Legitimacy ᶅ Recognize “Gap/misfit” derived
from social diversity
ᶉ ᶉ ᶆ Essential to “Coordinate” the
Co‐Production gap/misfit in co‐design
ᶇ “Coordinator” is a key player
ᶅ gap/misfit ᶈ Pay attention to “Legitimacy”
Stakeholding Priority
ᶉ “Going back and forth” is
Scaling Accountability
ᶉ Framing Time Setting ᶉ normal & desirable
ᶉ ᶊ Various Driving force / Trigger

ᶆ Co‐Design
ᶇ coordination
ᶉ ᶊ
Subject Fairness/Justice
Sensitivity Independence/ Driving force / Trigger
Social Capital Neutrality
Science Education
Personality etc.
Fig. 2.2 Conditions and requirements for successful “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” in

local society
recognize these “gaps” properly. This is a natural consequence of a diverse society,

which is by no means monolithic; the problems proposed by scientists or researchers
are not necessarily recognized in the same way by local stakeholders.
Second, it is important to fully understand the need to coordinate those “gaps” in
all phases of the collaborative “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” process (espe-
cially in the phase of “co-design”). If you continue a collaborative project while
leaving a “gap” as it is, it will result in the failure of “co-production,” render social
evaluation as illegitimate, and result in inapplicability to other areas or cases. This
would be fatal to Future Earth, which aims to solve problems on a global scale.
Third, the role of a coordinator responsible for the mitigation of a “gap” is very
important. The most important role of a coordinator is to build a relationship of
mutual trust between stakeholders by keeping social sensitivity toward local inter-
ests. However, it is not yet clear what kind of characteristics, aptitudes, abilities, or
attributes a coordinator should have, and this is a future issue. When scientists or
researchers propose a collaborative “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” project,
there are many cases where they will be responsible for coordination work by
themselves. In that case, at the very least, we can say that scientists and researchers
will be required to have human and social abilities to communicate with all stake-
holders in addition to research capacity.
Fourth, in order to ensure the achievement of the “co-design/co-production/co-

delivery” project and to secure the possibility of applying the results to other cases,
social evaluation of legitimacy by non-stakeholder entities is important. Without the
opportunity to test legitimacy, stakeholders may fall into “self-satisfaction” with
internal evaluation that does not necessarily result in achieving their goals.
Fifth, the timeline of “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” is not a one-way
process, and going back and forth is not only normal but also desirable. In “co-
design/co-production/co-delivery” projects where the prospect of problem-solving is
unpredictable and stakeholders with various interests are involved, it is quite rare for
the original plan to proceed on schedule, and it is rather natural to repeat a
continuous process of trial and error. By experiencing trial and error, it becomes
possible to recognize and eliminate “gaps” between stakeholders and finally build a
relationship of mutual trust. In other words, in the “co-design/co-production/co-
delivery” process, we should aim for flexible management that allows for the
possibility of modifying or reworking the project, rather than strictly setting a plan
or goal.
Sixth, there are some factors that will function as a driving force or trigger for
promoting successful “co-design/co-production/co-delivery.” They include the role
of science in informing local stakeholders about the existence of problems, the
combination of academic research and educational programs, and the personality
attributes of key stakeholders that will affect these projects for better or worse.
However, future research topics remain to consider whether there are other elements
and what kind of effects they may have on the process.
7 Conclusion
In this chapter, we introduced our perspectives on Future Earth research and our own
problem setting. Then, we proposed hypothetical indicators for the conditions,
requirements, and processes for successful “co-design/co-production/co-delivery.”
Although such indicators still remain to be explored further, each chapter of this part
will introduce and analyze each case based on this hypothesis. Table 2.1 is a list
showing an outline of the analyses carried out based on the hypothetical indicators.
Subsequent chapters will show the difficult struggles in executing “co-design/co-
production/co-delivery” in local societies.
Table 2.1 Outline of the case studies in part 2 based on the hypothetical indicators
Gap Analysis Indicators (GAI):
Indicators to measure gaps between stakeholders
Yokota Sato Fujiwara ・Onda Hanamatsu ・ Hanamatsu ・
(India PHC) (Indonesia (Indonesia Tokunaga Yamashita
Small hydropower) Industrial tree (Kami-tsushima high (Tsushima
plantaon) school) Abandoned land)
Stakeholding Multiple stakeholders with Residents, Leader of Kyushu University, Company, Stakeholders include Kami- Stakeholders include Village
different project time traditional community, NGOs, Residents, Tsushima High School, A, Tsushima City, Kyushu
phases since 2015. Involved, local government, Government (there are Tsushima City, Tsushima University. However, the
Stakeholders include Jaipur researchers, NPOs and conflicts within each Commerce & Industry Tsushima City’s temporary
District Department of private companies. As the stakeholder) Association, Local official staff as a good
Medical, Health, and Family project progressed, the businessmen, Kyushu coordinator withdrew from
Welfare, Kalwar Village, network of stakeholders University. The scope of the project halfway. On the
Village Health Center, Saras gradually expanded. Active stakeholding was properly other hand, Village A
Dairy, Lotus Dairy Company, stakeholders change by limited. claimed a wider
Biyani Group of College, phase. stakeholding.
Grameen Communications,
Kyushu University
Scaling Kalwar Village (12,000 Regional / district scale Industrial tree plantation Hitakatsu Area (900 Village A (180 population in
population) & Saras Dairy (Ciptagelar village), but (approximately 300,000 ha), population in 400 100 households)
Manda Factory (500 similar problems can be scale depends on each households) There was a gap on the
employees) seen in various places. problem (e.g., biodiversity The geographical, societal perception of scaling.
conservation, land conflict, scale were appropriate for Whereas Kyushu University
economic development) the purpose of the project. group limited the scale into
the village, Village A claimed
a wider scale.
Framing Framing is 「non- The problem of sustainable Biodiversity conservation, Two framing was There was a great gap on
communicable disease energy self-sufficiency in economic development, the successfully agreed with all the perception of framing.
prevention」. It was agreed remote rural areas. rights and livelihoods of stakeholders; changing Kyushu University group
with all stakeholders. residents; the framing consciousness of the local expected the reconversion
differs by company, NGO, people & educating the local of abandoned farmland with
residents, and scientists. high school students about biodiversity and high profits
the local community. by making use of external
manpower. However,
Village A thought that the
problem of abandoning
farmland was entirely
caused by harmful wildlife
damage.
Priority Not yet discussed about ・Residents: Stable ・Companies: maximizing All stakeholders agreed on There was a great gap on
[Priority] with local residents electricity supply, Increase profits and improving the priority of changing the priority. Kyushu
but with other stakeholders, in cash income reputation in the consciousness of the local University group expected
it is agreed that our priority ・Customary community international community people and educating the the reconversion of
to a prevention of non- leader (Abah): Stable ・NGO: emphasizing on local high school students abandoned farmland.
communicable diseases electricity supply, human rights and about the local community However, Village A gave
Conservation of traditional environmental conservation by conducting continuous priority to the resolution of
culture ・Resident A: regaining land elaborate meetings. Based harmful wildlife damage.
・Researchers: Looking for rights on such an agreement, each
ways to use renewable ・Resident B: expecting an stakeholder pursued their
energy sustainably in increase in income own interest and role.
remote areas ・Kyushu University:
・Local government: mediating between NGOs
Improvement of and company to promote
electrification rate collaboration; conserving
biodiversity in protected
areas of the company
Accountability Shared cost and shared ・Local government is ・Companies: responsibility All stakeholders agreed on Joint project and shared
responsibilities were agreed responsible for for forest protection and the sharing of responsibility. responsibilities were
(Responsibility) among Kyushu University, improvement of land conflicts in industrial High school wished to pursued, but village A hoped
Biyani College, Grameen electrification rate tree plantation areas continue project and take that Kyushu University
Communications, and Lotus ・Local community is ・Kyushu University: other responsibility byitself in group should have assumed
Dairy Company in 2019. responsible for electricity stakeholders expressed collaboration with Tsushima the responsibility of the
supply to the residents concern about responsibility City and Tsushima project.
・Researchers support the for taking part in greenwash. Commerce & Industry
sustainable electricity self- Association, even after the
sufficiency withdrawal of Kyushu
University from the project.
Time Seng No urgency for time setting Electricity supply is essential ・Company: making efforts The project was proposed in Village A recognized no
but for long term time for modern life. The power to improve reputation as a 2015, first tried in 2016 and urgency of the reconversion
setting is more required to outage problems should be priority issue. developed in and after 2017. of abandoned farmland.
achieve our project immediately resolved. ・Kyushu University: hoping Trial and error was to some However, it required an
objectives (reduce new to start conservation degree achieved. No urgent resolution of harmful
cases of non-communicable activities as soon as possible urgency for time setting of wildlife damage. Kyushu
diseases (NCDs), increase because there are rare plant the project. However, as the University group did not
awareness, treatment, and species in the protected project is concerned with have much time left before
control of NCDs) areas of the company education and change of the end of the research
consciousness in local period and were urgent to
people, more long time start the project.
setting is required to
achieve the project
objectives.
Transion Process No major conflicts or gaps No major conflicts or gaps There is a conflict, but no No major conflicts or gaps Great gaps on framing,
among stakeholders among stakeholders time to resolve it. Kyushu among stakeholders scaling, stakeholding,
University and the company (By conducting continuous priority, responsibility.
collaborated in the elaborate meetings in co- There was no enough time
biodiversity assessment, but design phase, each for coordinating such gaps.
it was not earned a stakeholder’s interests and
reputation from other intentions are mutually
stakeholders. harmonized and
coordinated.)
(continued)
Table 2.1 (continued)
Social Consideraon Indicators (SCI):

Indicators which coordinators should consider during the coordinaon process
Coordinaon Subject Biyani Group of Colleges Kyushu University, AHB Kyushu University (However, The main coordinator is a The coordinator is a
(Association of Hydro it has not yet been municipal temporary official municipal temporary official
Bandung, just like NPO) coordinated within teams of staff whereas this project staff. However, Kyushu
Kyushu University. Kyushu was jointly coordinated by University group by itself
University has a team that high school, Tsushima City tried to play the role of the
emphasizes collaboration and Kyushu University. coordinator after the
with the company and a municipal temporary official
team that has a critical view withdrew from the project.
of the company, and each
team works with different
stakeholders.)
Social Sensivity Consultation and Kyushu University, as a Insufficient although it is Consultation and Lack of social sensitivity to a
communication with local, project organizer, tried to necessary to fully hear the communication with high local community as Kyushu
district, state level understand the local opinions of each school, local businessmen University group did not
governments are already cultures, history, stakeholder and carefully and residents were carried out a detailed
done but with target Socio-economic present data while sufficiently done. Much hearing investigation to the
community residents are circumstances, and visit the maintaining independence attention has been paid to resident in the village. We
not yet done site as much as possible because there are severe human relationship in local did not fully understand the
using student training conflicts among community. needs and priority of the
program. stakeholders community.
However, there was a
limitation to visit
overseas sites.
Social Capital To develop and strengthen By visiting the village as Trusting relationships have Robust trust relationships Kyushu University group
social capital, Kyushu Univ. much as possible (3-4 times not been developed among between stakeholders was failed to build a trust
team had multiple face to a year), talking and conflicting stakeholders so successfully built owing to a relationship with the leader,
face meetings/discussions investigating together, far. continuous elaborate main members and other
with Biyani Group of College human relations and meetings and residents of the village A.
(total of 12 times), with local, trusting relationships were communication between There was not enough time
district, and state gradually nurtured. high school students and left for bringing about a
governments (2 times each), university group members. relationship of trust with the
and other stakeholders. village.
Fairness / Jusce All stakeholders agreed that Because the power of the Kyushu University did not High school, Tsushima City No fairness and justice in
“prevention of non- leader (Abah) was great, we give appropriate and Kyushu University that Kyushu University
communicable diseases” took care to draw out the consideration to conflicting conducted continuous group did not carried out a
and “improving an access to real intentions of the local company, NGOs, and elaborate meetings on an detailed hearing
health services” are residents as much as residents while maintaining equal status, and investigation to the resident
important and basic human possible. independence (e.g., transmitted fully the result in the village and not fully
right. publishing research results of meeting to Tsushima understand the needs and
in the media of the Commerce & Industry priority of the community.
company) Association. Fair attention
had been paid to all
stakeholders.
Independence / The project has certain Since there was no conflict No independence and Kyushu University group Kyushu University group
independence and composition, problems of neutrality. It seems that the played as an active played as an active
Neutrality neutrality because we independence and provision of data on stakeholder, and did not stakeholder, and did not
signed on mutual neutrality was not seen. biodiversity in response to a remain independent nor remain independent nor
agreement to continue the request by the company is neutral. However, it was no neutral. At first, a municipal
project until 2020. But neutral, but other problem because a temporary official staff
could be fragile when stakeholders recognize as municipal temporary official played as a main neutral
agreement is expired and the behavior to justify the staff played as a main coordinator. However, he
research budgets company. neutral coordinator. withdrew from the project
completely exhausted. halfway, and Kyushu
University group also tried
to become a neutral
coordinator but failed to do
it.
(continued)
Social Evaluaon Indicators (SEI):

Indicators to be considered during social evaluaon
Legimacy Legitimacy for this project Not yet evaluated. None (although there was Legitimacy for this project Legitimacy for this project
（All project phases） has not yet been discussed an agreement between has not yet been fully has absolutely not been
with local community Kyushu University and obtained through the obtained through the
residents but all companies, social evaluation external social evaluation, external social evaluation as
stakeholders recognized our by other stakeholders although it has already well as internal evaluation
health project is legitimate including residents and passed internal evaluation among the relevant
since it contribute to NGOs, was not obtained.) test among the active stakeholders since Kyushu
increase people’s access to relevant stakeholders. As University group withdrew
healthcare services as basic this project was taken up by from the project without
human right. the local media and became coordinating several gaps in
known to people in and the co-design phase.
outside the island to a
certain extent, legitimacy
will be proved in the future.
How to decide? We have consensus For local residents, Kyushu ・Biodiversity assessment: Joint decision by all Unilateral decision process:
meetings with stakeholders University proposed a Kyushu University conducts stakeholders has been Kyushu University group
for any important decisions method for solving the assessment, and developed through proposed a project plan and
on our project. problems and received companies use it as a continuous detailed meeting. asked village A to accept it.
approval from ethnic leader reference for decisions.
Abah and the other ・Coordination between
stakeholders. expanding biodiversity
conservation area of the
company and appreciating
the rights of residents: no
progress
Who decide for Biyani Colleges and Kyushu For local residents, Kyushu For the company, the Joint decision by all Kyushu University group
university usually make University proposed a research of Kyushu stakeholders for local high tried to make a joint
whom to whom? decisions on projects method for solving University is positioned as a school students and local decision with village A, but
activities based on local problems and received tool to appeal the people. village A suspected that
target population’s needs approval from ethnic leader conservation activities. Kyushu University group
after Abah and the other would decide and carry out
consultations/discussions stakeholders. the project for their own
with stakeholders sake.
Usefulness of Our project is based on Useful. The lack of scientific Use of science for the basis Scientific technics or tools Neither trust nor doubt
systematic research and technical evaluation is a of corporate profits and CSR. have not been used except were heard among residents
Science methods and social & part of the problem. for a questionnaire survey. of the village about scientific
behavioral theories which However, there was some knowledge on biodiversity
believed to be useful for the possibility that the reliance and technology for
implementation. on the scientific and improving productivity. The
educational knowledge of fact that the project was to
Kyushu University enabled be based on scientific
other stakeholders to try knowledge and technology
this project. did not seem to have a
direct influence on the
judgment of the residents.
Social Sensivity Sensitivity to local Ciptagelar is a village where Careful consideration to Consultation and Lack of social sensitivity to a
community residents is not traditional culture remains, conduct research was not communication with high local community as Kyushu
sufficient since no so that the consideration adequate in intense conflicts school, local businessmen University group did not
consultations or discussions was made not to among stakeholders. and residents were carried out a detailed
are made, but sensitivity to inadvertently damage the sufficiently done. Much hearing investigation to the
other stakeholders are natural environment or attention has been paid to resident in the village. We
considered to be sufficient culture. human relationship in local did not fully understand the
since number of face-to-face community. needs and priority of the
meetings and site visits community.
were made.
(continued)
Addional Factors (AF)

Personality Most stakeholder leaders The ethnic leader Abah has The influence of business This project was highly Personality of the village
are supportive, positive, two opposite aspects: A judgment by the company is dependent on the leader had a great impact.
open-minded, and willing to young man who love the considerable. personality of the Change of leader caused a
make social impacts. latest electronic technology temporary municipal reversal of the project. On
and crafts./ A shaman who is The pressure from NGOs officials, but the adverse the other hand, this project
a spiritual pillar of local affects business judgment in effects of the change of was highly dependent on
traditional culture. many cases. particular stakeholders were the personality of the
overcome by the temporary municipal official.
relationship of trust and His withdrawal had a great
communication among adverse influence on the
other stakeholders. project.
Integraon of Currently only research not Integration of scientific Research-only stage This research project was Only research
educational activities yet. research & education was closely connected with (This project was expected
scienfic research & useful. educational programs such to connect with educational
educaon Student educational as “citizenship education” of programs in high school and
activities consisting of local high school students university in the future, but
various specialized students and fieldwork activities by finally given up before
helped to understand the graduate students of Kyushu discussing a detailed plan.)
community. University.
others Frequent and continuous Characteristic of local There was a consultation Coordination by municipal Withdrawal of the municipal
dialogues, meetings, and culture was important. The from the company. It has temporary official staffs temporary official staff from
discussions are necessary to village has a idea of pair difficulty making were excellent. Success of the project had a great
maintain the project to be (Male & Female, Sky & earth collaboration in social this project was due mainly adverse influence on the
sustainable. Long term etc.) aspects due to the lack of to the work of such project. Failure of this
official written agreements Due to the idea, modern information provided by the coordinators. project was mainly caused
are also necessary to keep technology is easily company. by the subsequent absence
stakeholders to be accepted, without of a neutral coordinator.
accountable. contradicting with the
conservation of the
traditional cultures.
Acknowledgments This work was supported by a grant JPMJRX16F1 from the Research Institute
(JST) as part of the Future Earth programs, and JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant
Number 17H02491 and 17K18531.
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Chapter 3
Co-design, Co-production,
and Co-evaluation Processes for a Mobile
Health Check-Up Research Project
in Jaipur, India: A Case Study
of the Portable Health Clinic, 2016–2020
Fumihiko Yokota, Manish Biyani, Rafiqul Islam, Ashir Ahmed,

Mariko Nishikitani, Kimiyo Kikuchi, Rieko Izukura, Yasunobu Nohara,
and Naoki Nakashima
Abstract This chapter summarizes the co-design, co-production, and co-evaluation

processes of a mobile health check-up research project in Jaipur, India, from March
2016 to June 2020. It is the continuation of our previous paper which was published
in November 2018 at Sustainability. The main focus of this chapter is to describe the
processes of co-production, co-implementation, and co-evaluation research activities
after November 2018. To accomplish this, all documents and materials related to the
research processes of co-design, co-production, and co-evaluation were thoroughly
reviewed, including minutes from meetings, consultations, workshops, trainings,
presentation slides, pictures, and reports. After reviewing the past 4 year’s research
process, the road map of a sustainable mobile health check-up project in India was
proposed.
Keywords Healthcare services · Disease prevention · Transdisciplinary research ·

Co-design · Co-implementation · Co-evaluation · India
F. Yokota (*) · M. Nishikitani · K. Kikuchi · N. Nakashima

Institute of Decision Science for Sustainable Society, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
M. Biyani
Biyani Group of Colleges, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India
School of Materials Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Ishikawa,
Japan
R. Islam · R. Izukura · Y. Nohara
Medical Information Center, Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan
A. Ahmed
Graduate School of Information Science and Electrical Engineering, Kyushu University,
Fukuoka, Japan

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_3
94 F. Yokota et al.
1 Introduction
Future Earth research incorporates both natural and social sciences to solve global
environmental issues (Lovbrand et al. 2015) and has “pioneered approaches to
co-design and co-production of solutions-oriented transdisciplinary research for
global sustainable development” (Future Earth 2014). However, transdisciplinary
research is still hampered by a number of issues. First, the most recent reviews of
transdisciplinary case studies concluded that in the co-design and co-production,
processes of transdisciplinary research, methods, and concepts are still not clearly
framed (Moser 2016; Brandt et al. 2013; Leemans 2016; Zscheischler et al. 2017).
Second, most previous literature pertaining to transdisciplinary research only
describe an early stage of “co-design” rather than actual implementation, applica-
tion, and evaluation stages (Brandt et al. 2013; Page et al. 2016). Previous research
includes the key components of early co-design phases such as “framing of prob-
lems” (Leemans 2016; Zscheischler et al. 2017; Adler et al. 2018), “social capital,”
“partnership with mutual trust” (Mckee et al. 2015; Emmons et al. 2008; Ruddy and
Rhee 2005), “scaling” (Fraser et al. 2006), “accountability” (Van Del Hel 2016;
Lang et al. 2012), “ownership” (Lang et al. 2012), and “priorities and needs”
(Rhodes et al. 2012). However, a few previous transdisciplinary research have
reported on participatory case studies including “co-design,” “co-production,” and
“co-evaluation” together in a comprehensive, bottom-up manner (Leemans 2016).
Finally, fewer transdisciplinary case studies, particularly on health issues, have been
conducted in low- and middle-income countries in Asia, compared to Europe and
North America (Leemans 2016). Therefore, the whole processes of co-design,
co-production, and co-evaluation in health-related transdisciplinary research in
Asia are still vague and largely unknown.
To fill these knowledge gaps, a community-based mobile health check-up
research project called “Portable Health Clinic (PHC)” was introduced in Jaipur,
India, in March 2016 as part of a collaborative Future Earth research project among
Kyushu University (KU), Biyani Group of Colleges (BGC), and Grameen Commu-
nications (GC) (Yokota et al. 2018) (Fig. 3.1). This paper is the continuation of our
previous paper which was published in November 2018 at Sustainability and aims to
update and describe the processes of this health-focused transdisciplinary research
that are still taking place as of June 2020. Based on the reviews of the past 4 year’s
research process, the road map of a sustainable business model in the mobile health
check-up project was proposed. As an initial step, we hope to contribute to devel-
oping a methodological and conceptual framework for health-focused transdisci-
plinary research, as well as a new model for collaborative processes in the Asian
context.
3 Co-design, Co-production, and Co-evaluation Processes for a Mobile Health. . . 95
Fig. 3.1 Portable health clinic box, healthcare entrepreneur, and health check-up result
2 Portable Health Clinic (PHC) Research Project
A remote healthcare system called PHC was originally developed and implemented
in Bangladesh in 2010 under a research collaboration agreement between GC and
KU in 2007. GC is one of the Grameen family organizations established by
Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning founder of Grameen Bank.
It is a non-profit information technology company in Bangladesh that provides
software products and services, Internet services, hardware and networking services,
and IT education (Wikipedia 2018). PHC is an e-health service system that includes
a set of medical sensor devices in a briefcase allowing mobile health check-ups and
telemedicine services in remote rural areas using Skype (Nohara et al. 2015; Ahmed
et al. 2014; Nakashima et al. 2013) (Fig. 3.1). After Kyushu University Hospital
joined the PHC project in 2012, PHC focused on the prevention and management of
noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. At
the beginning of 2019, PHC services had been used by more than 42,000 people at
32 locations in Bangladesh (Grameen Communications 2020).
2.1 Data Sources
Data sources for this paper were all the research reports, activity logbooks, presen-
tation slides, and the research plan/protocol including research timelines, activity
schedules, and budgets. These documents produced during the period between
March 2016 and June 2020 were thoroughly reviewed.
96 F. Yokota et al.
2.1.1 Co-design and Co-production Processes Among KU, GC,

and BGC in Phase 1 (Photo 3.1)
In India, the PHC research project started in March 2016 as a community-based

health check-up service as a collaboration between KU, GC, and BGC as part of the
Future Earth Research Project funded for the Institute of Decision Science for
Sustainable Society, KU (Fig. 3.2). For more detailed information on the processes
in phase 1, please refer to Yokota et al. (2018).
Photo 3.1 Initial meeting, staff training, and pilot implementation jointly conducted by KU, GC,
and BGC in phase 1 (March 2016 to April 2017)
Fig. 3.2 Stakeholders and key coordinators for the PHC research project in Jaipur in five phases
(March 2016 to September 2019)
Photo 3.2 Courtesy visits including meetings and discussions held among government stake-
holders (from left: Rajasthan state, Jaipur district, Kalwar village government office, and Kalwar
Health Center) in phase 2 (May 2017 to September 2017)
Map 3.1 Location of Rajasthan state and Jaipur city
2.1.2 Co-design Process with Local Government Agencies in Phase

2 (Photo 3.2)
After going through the pilot phase 1, KU and BGC realized that permission and
agreement from local government agencies were necessary for officially
implementing the PHC research project in Rajasthan (Map 3.1). In May 2017, the
research team visited the following agencies: Rajasthan state and Jaipur district
department of medical, health, and family welfare; Kalwar village office; and Kalwar
98 F. Yokota et al.
health center (Fig. 3.2). For more detailed information on the processes in phase
2, please refer to Yokota et al. (2018).
2.1.3 Co-design, Co-production, and Co-evaluation Processes

with a Civil Society Organization in Phase 3 (Photo 3.3)
In phase 3, starting from October 2017, KU and BGC had signed the official
academic collaboration agreement. Based on the revised research plan and protocol,
we decided to investigate the health needs, priorities, and longitudinal effects of our
PHC health check-up services among different population cohort groups in various
Jaipur districts. To achieve these objectives, we needed to follow up with the same
individuals over time to monitor changes in their health status, behaviors, needs, and
priorities. In this aspect, members of civil society organizations were much easier to
follow up with than general community residents over the years. Thus, BGC first
contacted the Brahma Kumaris World Spiritual University (BK) to be a stakeholder
and target research population group (Fig. 3.2). For more detailed information on the
processes in phase 3, please refer to Yokota et al. (2018).

with Local Government Industry in Phase 4 (Photo 3.4)
In phase 4, starting January 2018, the core research objective was the same as in
phase 3, to understand the health status, behaviors, and needs of local people as well
Photo 3.3 Seminars, workshop trainings, and pilot implementation jointly conducted by KU,
BGC, and BK Center in phase 3 (October 2017 to February 2018)
Photo 3.4 Seminars, workshop trainings, pilot implementation jointly conducted by KU and BGC,
at Saras Dairy and BGC sites in phase 4 (March 2018 to October 2018)
as determining the effectiveness and acceptability of our project in a Jaipur district.

However, in phase 4, the research target population was industry employees rather
than general community residents or civil society members. Our aim was to identify
the high-risk population groups which are most in need of health check-up services
for NCD prevention. Thus, the study in phase 4 enables the comparison of health
needs, health status, and health behaviors among civil society organization members,
industry employees, and the general community members in Rajasthan. For more
detailed information on the processes in phase 4, please refer to Yokota et al. (2018).

with Local Private Industry in Phase 5 (Photo 3.5)
In phase 4, PHC services could not continue as a sustainable business model nor
health insurance scheme in a sustainable manner. From the previous phrases, we
learned that there are needs for eye check-up and traditional Indian doctors (Ayur-
veda) among factory employees in Jaipur district, India. In addition, factory
employees need more detailed blood tests including HbA1c for diabetes and
HDL/LDL cholesterol. Therefore, the Indian PHC services were customized
according to specific population’s needs. We also learned that it was very difficult
to implement long-term sustainable health check-up services for government factory
employees due to the following reasons: (1) government system is very slow and
difficult such that it has many approval steps and paper works to proceed a new
health check-up scheme, (2) government factory managers (leaders) do not want to
have additional tasks or extra works to start new sustainable health check-up system,
and (3) government leaders request many things but not take initiatives to start a new
sustainable health check-up system. In phase 5, therefore, we changed our collabo-
rative partners from government companies to private companies because private
companies do not have such obstacles (1)–(3) that government companies have.
From September to October 2018, we have searched for any potential private
companies who are interested in implementing health check-up services for their
employees in a long term as a health insurance scheme or social business. From
BGC’s principle’s network, we found that Lotus Dairy (LD) Milk Company is
interested in the PHC health check-up services for their employees and they were
willing to provide their own factory’s facility room as a PHC clinic and also willing
Photo 3.5 Newly customized PHC provided for factory employees by KU, GC, and BGC, at Lotus
Dairy and Lotus Manda factory clinic in phase 5 (November 2018 to Present)
100 F. Yokota et al.
Fig. 3.3 Road map of the

proposed LD company’s
health insurance business
model of PHC project, India
to pay for a cost for medicines. KU, GC, BGC, and LD had several meetings to
discuss “how can we continue to implement PHC health check-up services for LD’s
employees even after research funds finish?”. Based on the discussions, all four (KU,
GC, BGC, and LD) could have an official agreement on implementing sustainable
PHC health check-up services for LD’s factory employees in Jaipur district, India
(Fig. 3.2). However, due to the closure of KU, Institute of Decision Science for
Sustainable Society, this agreement had to be ended by the end of March 2020.
Although the official joint research agreement was ended in March 2020, KU, BGC,
GC, and LD tried to continue the project by developing the cost-sharing scheme as
below:
• LD is to provide a cost for their factory clinic, electricity, water, and other clinic
maintenance cost as well as the cost for medical drugs.
• BGC is to provide a cost for human resources (coordinator, Ayurveda doctor,
health workers, IT technicians).
• GC is to provide technical assistance on data management and software for PHC
system.
• KU is to provide scientific knowledge and evidence on the effects and impacts of
health check-up and tele-consultation services (data collection, data analysis,
publish academic papers, etc.) and provide consumables for health check-up for
the first 1 or 2 years.
In addition, KU and BGC developed a road map of the proposed business model
for LD to be self-sustained in this PHC project (Fig. 3.3). In February 2020, KU,
BGC, and LD had a face-to-face meeting at the LD headquarter office at Jaipur,
India, to discuss the possibility of continuing the PHD project as the proposed
business model. LD made two requests:
1. More detailed evaluation results collected from company employees who
received the PHC services including their satisfaction levels
2. More robust supports and promotion from local government agencies such as the
Ministry of Health, Medicine, and Family Welfare in India
KU and BGC agreed to have the evaluation interview survey for those who
received PHC services and request LD for jointly implementing the second time
PHC services and evaluation surveys targeting those who received PHC services
once before. Unfortunately, due to the COVID-19 situations in India and Japan, our
joint PHC project has been pending as of June 2020.
2.1.6 Summary of Co-design and Co-production Processes in All Five

Phases
In all phases that we described in this section, we utilized the following co-design,
co-production, and co-evaluation process steps (Fig. 3.4): (1) jointly develop and
revise a research plan and protocol which includes research objectives, methods,
timelines, activity schedules, and budgets; (2) reach collaborative agreement and
consensus on the research plan and protocol with both academic and nonacademic
stakeholders through meetings, consultations, and workshops; (3) conduct local
research staff training workshops based on the protocol in order to improve the
quality of services and quality of data jointly with stakeholders; (4) implement the
pilot PHC health check-up research involving all stakeholders; (5) analyze, dissem-
inate, and provide feedback on the results with all stakeholders through presenta-
tions, seminars, workshops, and conferences; (6) revise the research plan and
protocol based on feedback such as local needs, priorities, and requests from
stakeholders; and (7) develop and implement sustainable PHC social business
model (business partners, staff, customers, business services and products, service
delivery process and activities, business resources, cost structures, time frame, target
locations, marketing plan). We should have engaged with all of our government,
industry, and community stakeholders at an earlier stage of the co-design process, so
that we did not need to go and back again between co-design and co-production. Van
der Hel et al. (2016) indicated that engaging more stakeholders throughout the
research process will increase legitimacy and reduce skepticism. Some key factors,
such as effective local coordinators, personality types of stakeholder leaders, and
continuous involvement and engagement with stakeholders, particularly both gov-
ernment and nongovernment stakeholders helped mitigate such difficult situations in
our research in India.
Acknowledgments I would like to thank the following stakeholders and the individuals who
provided support for the project: Biyani Group of Colleges; Grameen Communications; Kalwar
village office; Kalwar health center; Jaipur district and Rajasthan state department of medical,
health, and family welfare; Brahma Kumaris Spiritual Centers; Saras Dairy; and Lotus Dairy. This
work was supported by a grant JPMJRX16F1 from the Research Institute of Science and Technol-
ogy for the Society (RISTEX) of Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of the Future
Earth programs.
102
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
1. Co-designձ
ձ (Develop and revise research plan & protocol among internal stakeholders through numerous workshops,
consultations, and meetings)
2. Co-designղ
ղ (Have agreement and consensus on the research plan and protocol with other non-academic local stakeholders
through workshops, consultations, and meetings)
3. Co-productionձ
ձ (Conduct research staff training workshops based on the protocol to increase quality of service and quality of
data, involving all stakeholders)
4. Co-productionղ
ղ (Implement pilot field research involving all stakeholders)
5. Co-evaluation (Analyze, disseminate, and give feedback on the results with all stakeholders through presentation seminars,
workshops, and discussions)
6. Co-evaluation and co-design (Based on the feedback from stakeholders, go back to revising the research plan and protocol)
7. Co-productionճ ճ (Develop and implement sustainable PHC social business model (business partners, staff, customers, business
services and products, service delivery process and activities, business resources, cost structures, time frame, target locations,
marketing plan)
Fig. 3.4 Co-design, co-production, and co-evaluation process of India PHC project
F. Yokota et al.
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Chapter 4
Sustainability of Micro Hydropower
Generation in a Traditional Community
of Indonesia
Tatsuro Sato and Jun’ichiro Ide
Abstract Over 3 years, we undertook a micro hydropower (MHP) project in the

Ciptagelar village, West Java, to improve the understanding and implementation of
sustainable operations and management of MHP generation in remote rural areas,
where the primary industry is farming and thus monetary incomes are low. First, we
describe in this paper the history of setting up the research agenda to be tackled with
the cooperation of governmental and nongovernmental stakeholders. Second, we
report the current status of MHP plants and the related issues obtained through
fieldwork and model simulations, in the context of culture, traditions, and society in
the village. Finally, we propose guidelines to solve the issues and present the lessons
learned and things scientists should pay attention to when proceeding with transdis-
ciplinary research projects in remote rural areas. Through fieldwork and model
simulations, we revealed issues related to budgeting and techniques for maintaining
and operating MHP plants. We found that the village had difficulty in securing funds
for repairing broken intake weirs, though it had funds to cover the general mainte-
nance of the MHP plants. We also found that the intake weirs were vulnerable to
large floods and that no accomplished technicians were available to operate MHP
plants in the village properly. To solve these issues, we need to find ways to reinforce
the intake weirs using local materials and increase monetary incomes by creating
new industries based on the MHP generation while considering the cultural and
traditional backgrounds of the remote rural areas.
Keywords Mountainous area · Off-grid power · Renewable energy · Rice paddy ·

Sustainable infrastructure
T. Sato (*)
Disaster Risk Reduction Research Center, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University,
Fukuoka, Japan
J. Ide
Department of Applied Chemistry and Bioscience, Chitose Institute of Science and Technology,
Chitose, Japan

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_4
106 T. Sato and J. Ide
1 Introduction
Global energy demand nearly doubled from 1970 to 2003, increasing with popula-
tion and economic growth. By 2040, it is expected to increase by ~30% over current
levels (International Energy Agency 2016). Developing countries are expected to
account for ~60% of the increase in energy demands as of 2030. However, meeting
these energy demands may be difficult because of continued dependence on finite
fossil fuels. In addition, the use of fossil fuels emits large amounts of greenhouse
gases into the atmosphere, resulting in severe climate change. The Paris climate
agreement, an international framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
starting in the year 2020, was signed on November 4, 2016. Nearly all countries,
including major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries, participated in the agreement to
stipulate efforts toward achieving the global, long-term goal of keeping the average
temperature rise sufficiently below 2 C, with each country submitting and updating
emissions reduction targets as well as examining the global implementation status
every 5 years. The first key to achieving the ambitious goal is to promote an energy
mix that emphasizes renewable energy, in addition to energy saving and increased
energy efficiency.
The introduction of distributed renewable energy production is essential for
various reasons. First, geographically dispersed renewable energy promotes regional
economic development. Local renewable energy is a sustainable regional resource
and is an inexpensive form of energy for future use. Shifting from energy depen-
dence on external sources to locally procured energy leads to the increase of fund
circulation within the region, activation of the regional economy, and increased
employment opportunities in the newly developed energy industry. Besides, renew-
able energies are more resilient against disasters compared with their nonrenewable
counterparts. On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster shed light on the significant weaknesses of the
existing electricity infrastructure. The damage to lifelines and power outages signif-
icantly affected the Japanese citizens; medical care, transportation, and industrial
activity were all restricted. These experiences exposed the limitations of large-scale
centralized power systems. Conversely, when the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake
occurred, homes wherein photovoltaic power generators were installed received
uninterrupted electricity supply, even during power grid failures.
Comprehensively considering these diverse positive impacts encourages the
creation of sustainable energy systems. The policy framework that directly addresses
these positive impacts is the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which lays
out Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by the UN Sustainable Devel-
opment Summit held in September 2015. Of the 17 goals and 169 targets, Goal
7 relates specifically to energy, aiming at “ensuring access to affordable, reliable,
sustainable, and modern energy for all” (United Nations 2019). As population
increases and lifestyles change in developing countries, energy demands continue
to increase. Sustainable energy supply is vital for eradicating poverty, establishing a
stable environment that is resilient against disasters, and providing a culturally rich
4 Sustainability of Micro Hydropower Generation in a Traditional Community of. . . 107
lifestyle. Discussions on a national level regarding power supply and energy mix
have gradually accelerated; however, vested interests in the energy sector are great,
and current political conditions pose difficulties in introducing significant top-down
changes. On the other hand, at the Institute of Decision Science for a Sustainable
Society (IDS3) in Kyushu University, we have collaborated with local communities
to develop bottom-up sustainable social reforms. We hope that such individual
challenges (learnings) encountered at the local level will be shared via the global
network, leading to a big wave of support for a sustainable society.
Herein, the micro hydropower (MHP) project, which is an essential renewable
energy source in the farming villages of Indonesia, is introduced. In this project, we
aimed to answer the question, “how do we realize sustainable MHP generation in
remote rural areas?”. For this, we have investigated the current status of energy self-
sufficiency in a traditional farming village located in the mountainous area in West
Java, Indonesia, over 3 years. We describe the contents of our investigations and
efforts in Indonesia in chronological order. We would also like to share crucial
points to help conduct Future Earth research that orients the cooperation between
scientists and social stakeholders.
2 Case History
2.1 Phase I (2015): Setting Up the Research Agenda to be
Tackled (Co-design)
The Republic of Indonesia is located in East Asia and has the fourth largest
population in the world. In recent years, its economic growth rate and consequently,
energy demand has been rapidly increasing. On the other hand, it has many remote
regional areas that are not electrified. This is because Indonesia is the world’s largest
archipelago state, which consists of more than 17,000 islands, and thus it is
unfeasible to construct centralized power grids all over the country. Therefore,
activities to electrify the remote off-grid areas are being promoted by using inex-
pensive techniques of MHP generation that have been developed in Indonesia.
MHP is one of the most widely introduced renewable energies in Indonesia
(Sukarna 2012), because Indonesia has steep terrain and thereby has enormous
potential for MHP generation, and because MHP does not need massive construc-
tions like dams. The electrification rate in villages in Indonesia increased from 5% in
1978 to 62% in 1995 and reached approximately 82% in 2000 (Nagai 1999; JICA
2005). In recent years, the introduction of feed-in tariff has accelerated the spread of
renewable energy, such as MHP, in remote regional areas. However, during the rainy
season, flood disasters frequently occur in the areas suitable for MHP and sometimes
destroy the MHP generation facilities. Additionally, there are many cases where
MHP is operated mainly by residents, and the destroyed MHP facility remains
unrepaired because of insufficient budgeting (Ranzanici 2013).
To narrow down the research topics for sustainable regional MHP generation, we
contacted Bandung Hydro Association (Asosiasi Hidro Bandung: AHB), the central
organization for MHP generation in Indonesia. Moreover, Kyushu University
already had a cooperative relationship with AHB because of technology exchange.
Initially, we tried to grasp the current status of MHP generation in remote areas in
Indonesia. We conducted face-to-face interviews and discussions with several stake-
holders: The Agency of Energy and Mineral Resources of West Java Province
(Dinas Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Provinsi Jawa Barat: ESDM), Bandung
Institute of Technology (Institut Teknologi Bandung: ITB), and local village leaders,
operators, and managers who face the issues on MHP. It was found that in approx-
imately half of the MHP facilities introduced in remote areas in Java, intake weirs,
headrace channels, and penstocks were broken by flood and sediment disasters, and
consequently, the MHP generation stopped (Rahadian 2016, personal
communication). This rate of the stopped MHP facilities was consistent with Peters
and Sievert (2014), who found that more than 20% of the MHP facilities they visited
were out of order.
Several economic, social, and environmental issues affect sustained operations of
MHP generation in economically developing countries (Purwanto and Afifah 2016).
However, few studies have conducted field investigations to clarify practical issues
that MHP stakeholders face or have proposed ways of resolving such issues. We
have co-designed the content of the transdisciplinary (TD) study on the issues that
challenge sustainable MHP operations while closely cooperating with the stake-
holders. We set a goal to make protocols for the rehabilitation of stopped MHP
facilities and sustainable operations and management of MHP in remote areas. Next,
we decided on the target field. ESDM introduced us to a remote mountainous village,
Ciptagelar village, where residents conserve a traditional lifestyle and are self-
sufficient in electricity supply from MHP generation. However, the village had
some problems with the MHP system. We selected this village as the TD study area.
2.2 Phase II (2016): Research Framework in the Ciptagelar

Village (Co-design)
Ciptagelar village is located in the mountainous area of Sukabumi District, West

Java Province, Indonesia (6 480 S, 106 300 E; 1122 m a.s.l.; Fig. 4.1), and is difficult
to access especially during the rainy season. There are approximately 750 households
(receiving electricity from four MHP plants) in the village, and it is the heart of the
Sundanese ethnic group, the Kasepuhan adat community. It is estimated that
approximately 16,000 people belong to that community and are distributed in the
West Java and Banten Provinces (Suganda 2009). The highest leader of the
Kasepuhan adat community, Abah Ugi (Abah means “a father” and plays the role
of a king), lives in Ciptagelar village.
Fig. 4.1 (a) Location of the Ciptagelar village, Sukabumi, West Java Province, Indonesia. (b)
Broken intake weir of the Situmurni No. 1 MHP (as of Mar. 2016)
Table 4.1 Properties of four MHP plants in Ciptagelar village

Name of MHP Year of Max. output Broken parts
plant construction (kW) (times)a Funders (at construction)
Cicemet 1997 60 Turbine (2) JICA (Japan)
Generator (2)
Controller (1)
Intake weir (1)
Situmurni 2001 40 Turbine (1) West Java Province
No. 1 Bearing (?)
Belt (?)
Intake weir (?)
Cibadak 2012 60 Turbine (1) Local bank
Transformer
(2)
Situmurni 2013 45 Headrace chan- KOMIPO, KOIKA,
No. 2 nel (1) (Korea), IBEKA
a
Number of times that an issue with the part has caused the MHP plant to be out of operation
As the village is located along the boundary of Gunung Halimun National Park,
in a steep mountainous area and difficult to access because of steep unpaved roads,
power supply from the Indonesian government-owned power company (Perusahaan
Listrik Negarandonesian: PLN) has been restricted. To compensate for the insuffi-
cient power supply in the village, four MHP facilities (Table 4.1) have been installed
in sequential order since 1997 through the support of international donors, the local
government, NGOs, and a local bank. The generated electricity is used for basic
modern human needs, mainly electric lighting (Ide et al. 2018), which has replaced
oil lamps. Other uses of electricity are watching television and using smartphones
(i.e., charging their batteries), which provide residents information from outside of
the village. However, as of March 2016, two of the four facilities (Situmurni No.1
and Cibadak) were out of operation because of disasters, such as massive floods,
landslides, and thunderstorms caused by extreme weather conditions.
In March 2016, we conducted a stakeholder meeting including the village

residents, Abah, who is a proprietor of MHP in the village, and staff of the ESDM
of West Java and AHB. Then we co-designed the framework of transdisciplinary
research in this village, which aims to assess the vulnerability of MHP plants to
disasters scientifically. We planned to make an actual rehabilitation plan for a
stopped MHP plant (Situmurni No. 1) in collaboration with all the stakeholders,
considering the village’s history, characteristics, beliefs, and economic conditions.
However, early in the project, our research framework was forced to change. As
soon as the investigation started toward the rehabilitation of the broken intake weir,
the intake weir was reconstructed by a coal mining company, as a corporate social
responsibility activity under the permission of Abah. This is because it had been
7 months since the intake weir was broken and the power supply to households
stopped, and residents were demanding that electricity be restored to resume their
normal lives. This suggests that electricity has already become an essential part of
residents’ lives. At that time, we had not built a trusting relationship with the
community and the leader, Abah, and so we were not able to be involved in the
rehabilitation efforts of the intake weir. The real world could not afford to wait for
research results. The reconstruction of the intake weir was good news for the village.
However, we were concerned about the fact that the structure and location of the
reconstructed intake weir were the same as those of the previous one, which was
vulnerable to massive floods. Risks remain that the intake weir will be broken again
by floods.
We changed our research framework (re-co-design). We decided not to rehabil-
itate the intake weir with the stakeholders specifically but to present management
methods for sustainable MHP plants from both sociological and engineering
approaches.
2.3 Phase III (2017): Learning the Context of the Ciptagelar

Community (Co-production)
To evaluate the vulnerability of MHP plants to disasters and build the countermea-
sures scientifically, we investigated the structure of the broken intake weir of an
MHP plant. We additionally collected hydrological data such as rainfall and river
flow data in 2017. Such research activities were conducted in collaboration with
several stakeholders, including ESDM, ITB, AHB, and the local residents.
We also had repeated dialogue with residents and leaders in order to understand
the culture, traditions, thought, industries, and economic conditions of the Ciptagelar
community. This understanding is the foundation of sustainable MHP management
and essential to building trust with the community (Fig. 4.2). We visited the village
many times and sometimes participated in some critical traditional ceremonies
relating to rice farming and Abah’s birthday parties.
Fig. 4.2 Rice farming and the barns “Leuit” in Ciptagelar
Through the repeated dialogs, we could touch the deep traditional culture and
understand the current socio-economic situation of the Ciptagelar community. The
birth of the Kasephan ethnic group, to which the Ciptagelar village belongs, dates to
1368. Since then, the “Abah” has continued via a male patriarchy system. He
administers religious services and magic rituals like a shaman in the community.
He is the spiritual pillar of the community, and the community members have deep
trust in him. Rice farming conducted cooperatively between residents is essential for
the traditional livelihoods of the residents in Ciptagelar village (Fig. 4.2). The
residents believe that rice is part of the sacred life, and they plant it for subsistence,
but not for commercial use. They are not allowed to buy and sell the harvested rice,
because selling rice is comparable to selling life for them. They plant and harvest rice
only once a year, according to the natural rhythm, though it is possible to plant rice
two or three times per year in the West Java Province. In Ciptagelar village, human
beings are recognized as a part of nature and nature as “Mother Earth” (Sato et al.
2017). Thus, residents do not use pesticides that kill living organisms in rice farming.
Ten percent of the harvested rice is stored every year in unique barns called “Leuit,”
which is a symbol of the village (Fig. 4.2), to provide food in case of a poor harvest
year. Leuit is also a sacred place, and it exists under the thought that the paddy must
not be eradicated but be kept alive with the same importance as that of human life.
Residents in Ciptagelar village have the “thought of pair,” which is a philosophy that
objects or things are a pair or have two poles, such as man and woman or the sun and
the moon. Based on this thought, they introduce modern techniques, that is, elec-
tricity, while also recognizing the importance of the traditional livelihood.
Thus, the main livelihood in the Ciptagelar village is rice cultivation, but the sale
of rice is prohibited. As a result, the source of cash income in the village is limited to
the sale of agricultural products, such as Java sugar made from the sap of sugar palm,
and construction labor. For this reason, many village residents migrate to the Banten
Province to work as gold miners or to large cities such as Jakarta to work as
construction laborers or housekeepers.
2.4 Phase IV (2018): Scientific Outcomes Revealing

the Sustainability Issues of MHP Plants in Ciptagelar
(Co-production)
Accurate assessment of flood risk is essential for the sustainability of MHP plants in
Ciptagelar. Several studies on flood risk assessments have valued the importance of
technical and scientific approaches (Merz et al. 2014; Kellermann et al. 2015). In
general, the risk assessment and the choice of preventive actions are based on several
methods such as flood mapping, which is a crucial element of flood risk manage-
ment. In order to help the stakeholders who were not familiar with technology and
science understand the issues more clearly, flood mapping was selected to show the
flood risk visually.
Based on the collected hydrological data, we constructed a runoff model on the
relationship between rainfall and river flow, and the 2D flood simulation model
(using Nays2Dflood solver in the iRIC software, https://i-ric.org/en/) that shows the
spatial flood risk (Fig. 4.3). At first, the 2D flood model was developed only for one
MHP plant (Situmurni No. 1 power plant), which had been out of operation because
of damage to the intake weir at the start of this project. According to the request from
stakeholders including the residents, we expanded the model to all four MHP plants
in Ciptagelar village. In the development of the 2D flood model, drone photogram-
metry for making high-resolution digital elevation data was conducted with stake-
holders. Combining the frequency analysis using long-term public observation data
Fig. 4.3 Scientifically analyzed flood risk map in Ciptagelar, shared by stakeholders. Background
image from © Maxar
on rainfall, we could make the flood risk map in return periods covering all MHP
plants. This map indicated that some MHP plants were vulnerable to floods.
Also, our investigations on the socio-economic issues underscored the difficulty
for the village to secure budgets to repair and maintain the MHP facilities. The
operators and Abah told us that some part of the facilities in all four MHP plants had
been broken because of disasters, operation mistakes, and other causes and were
replaced with a new one by Abah’s borrowing money from banks and other
companies. Previous studies pointed out that most of the village communities in
remote areas have difficulty in permanently securing budgets for repairing and
replacing parts of MHP facilities and generators because their primary industry is
agriculture, which provides little monetary income (Yasunaga and Nishio 2001;
Ranzanici 2013; Purwanto and Afifah 2016). Therefore, the community has no
choice but to rely on external grants and donors to determine whether they can
repair the broken facilities, as is the case in other developing countries (e.g., Palit and
Chaurey 2011). These facts are true in the case of Ciptagelar village. On the other
hand, it was hard for the donors to cover the cost of repairing the broken or damaged
facility, though they support the construction cost as a startup of the MHP project
because of the issue of equity and unclear ownership (West Java Province govern-
ment has started to subsidize the repair of broken MHP plants).
In many MHP projects in developing countries, donors tend to focus on the
construction of new power plants in places that have never had electricity (Urmee
and Md 2016). However, once an MHP facility is installed, the responsibility of its
operation and maintenance are often handed over to the community. Eventually, the
project fails because the community does not have a sufficient maintenance budget.
Our detailed survey clarified the electricity bill payments received from all house-
holds for the electricity supplied from the four MHP plants and the cost of mainte-
nance including labor costs. It indicates that minimum maintenance can be
performed based on the current electricity bill collection amount. However, this
amount is not sufficient to cope with severe damage caused by large-scale failure or
disaster.
3 Exploring Measures to Solve the Issues
From the issues as mentioned above related to operations and management of MHP
in Ciptagelar village, we aimed to rehabilitate the stopped MHP facility, in consid-
eration of the sustainability of MHP and the regional development. Specifically, we
tried to support residents in starting new industries based on the MHP generation and
thereby increase monetary income for maintaining MHP. Furthermore, we intended
to increase job opportunities by creating new industries and thereby activate the
regional economy and development. This rehabilitation should be operated mainly
by the residents in the village and therefore should be conducted based on the
combination of traditional and cutting-edge technologies, while respecting back-

grounds, such as culture, tradition, and society of all stakeholders.
To reduce the risks and prepare for repairing the MHP facility in the future, we
need to find ways of securing the budgets for the maintenance of MHP. Saito and
Takahata (2004) proposed that part of electricity charges from residents should be
accumulated as budgets for repairing the MHP facility. However, residents’ income
is generally much lower in the remote areas where the off-grid electrification was
applied, and there are few sources of monetary income (e.g., Nagai 1999). In
Ciptagelar village, there are limited sources of monetary income, that is, sales of
agricultural productions, such as palm sugar and coffee beans. Therefore, if a high
price is set for the electricity charges to secure the funds for repairs and it exceeds the
residents’ capability to pay, it cannot be adequately collected (Yasunaga and Nishio
2001).
We described earlier a way of securing the budgets by creating new industries
based on MHP. This was also proposed by other previous studies (Saito and
Takahata 2004; Ranzanici 2013). However, there is a deeply penetrated philosophy,
“thought of a pair,” in Ciptagelar village. Abah and residents think that they have to
conserve their traditional livelihood as they integrate new technologies into their
lives. The generated electricity is applied to the process of coffee beans, which is a
main agricultural product in the village, and the monetary income generated through
their sale is used for maintaining MHP facilities. However, this monetary amount is
not sufficient because the production of coffee beans is limited. On the other hand,
residents do not conduct a single plantation of coffee trees for increasing monetary
income because of their philosophy (Sato et al. 2017). The industrial structure in
the village should be changed to generate sufficient monetary income to cover the
maintenance expenses of the MHP facilities. However, this is unfeasible in the
village because it would change the unique traditions and livelihood, which would
lead to the destruction of the psychological culture.
4 Concluding Remarks and Perspectives
In order to use and operate MHP generation in the local communities in a sustainable
manner, both technical and financial aspects need to be addressed. As a result of a
detailed investigation of the operation and maintenance status of MHP plants, it was
found that the necessary maintenance costs can be derived from the residents
through electricity bill payments. On the other hand, it was also found that once
the plant was destroyed by natural disasters such as floods, funds could not be
secured to restore or recover it. Therefore, in hydrological observations at the
planning stage of MHP plants, it is necessary to precisely estimate not only low
flow conditions, which strongly affect the amount of power generation, but also high
flow conditions, which can damage or destroy the MHP plant. Also, it is necessary to
create a countermeasure plan for flood risks, such as reinforcement of the intake
weir. We are working closely with the West Java Provincial Government and are
planning a budgetary backup for the countermeasures.
It turned out that errors in operation could often damage the MHP plant. The
improvement of the skills of the operators in remote rural communities is the key to
the sustainability of MHP generation. It is vital to build a cooperative relationship
between NPOs in urban areas, such as AHB, Japanese engineers, and residents, and
thereby share knowledge and technology over a long period.
5 Lessons Learned
1. Work together, learn together:

– Researchers tend to replace practical issues with the issues related to their
fields of expertise, but they should think deeply about the true nature of the
issues with local people. In other words, researchers should sincerely face the
issues in which local people take a deep interest.
– To understand the true nature of the issues, researchers should frequently visit
the site and thereby build a trusting relationship with local people.
2. Building a network flexibly:
– To grasp the true nature of practical issues and explore measures to solve them
under changing social conditions, transdisciplinary approaches are needed;
researchers need cooperation from several stakeholders. On the other hand, the
relationships between stakeholders change with time, and stakeholders them-
selves change according to the stages of solving issues. Thus, researchers need
to respond flexibly to their changes.
3. Practical wisdom:
– Problem-based research projects are not necessarily generalized; a case-by-
case problem resolution is needed according to local and/or social situations.
– An accumulation of case studies is required so that everyone can access them
for reference.
Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by the Program for Leading Graduate
Schools from the JSPS (Graduate Education and Research Training Program in Decision Science
for a Sustainable Society), a grant for Future Earth Study from the JST-RISTEX (JPMJRX16F1),
the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the JSPS (#JP15K16115; #JP18K11623), and a
research grant from the Mitsui & Co. Environment Fund (#R19-0026). We would like to acknowl-
edge Dr. Nariaki Onda, Mr. M. Alhaqurahman Isa, Ms. Asari Takada, and other students in the
Institute of Decision Science for a Sustainable Society, Kyushu University, for helping us with our
field survey, and members of the Dinas ESDM-Jabar and AHB for their kind cooperation during the
field survey. We also extend sincere thanks to the Ciptagelar community.
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Chapter 5
Conflict of Legitimacy Over Tropical Forest
Lands: Lessons for Collaboration from
the Case of Industrial Tree Plantation
in Indonesia
Takahiro Fujiwara and Nariaki Onda
Abstract Industrial Tree Plantation (ITP) in Indonesia has been controversial due to
its significant environmental, economic, and social impacts and the severe conflicts
among stakeholders. Therefore, it is crucially important to discuss the fundamental
structure of the conflicts to promote going forward. We introduce the concept of
“legitimacy” and discuss the (1) inequality of the landholding structure and (2) legal
pluralism established by historical circumstances as the fundamental structure of the
conflicts. Our discussions present some key lessons in promoting collaboration
among stakeholders. The first lesson is that the degree of interest and priority for
problems differs among stakeholders. Therefore, an understanding of these differ-
ences is the first step toward collaboration. The second lesson is about the impor-
tance of considering history. Awareness of the problem, interpretation of the
historical facts, and evaluation of other stakeholders by a certain stakeholder change
over time. Therefore, to start a collaboration, it is necessary to build a consensus
among stakeholders as a time point to go back to in order to discuss the problem. The
third lesson is that a procedure for data presentation agreeable among stakeholders as
independent, neutral, and fair is essential for their collaborations. Especially in cases
where conflicts among stakeholders are intensive, it appears that confidence in and
interpretation of presented data are different for each stakeholder. Therefore, data
presentation agreeable to all stakeholders is essential to promote their collaborations.
Unlike conventional scientific research, scientists are required to uphold various
values existing in society to collaborate with stakeholders in transdisciplinary
research of Future Earth.
Keywords Multiple functions of forests · Wealth inequality · Legal pluralism ·

Various values · Fairness
T. Fujiwara (*)
N. Onda

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_5
120 T. Fujiwara and N. Onda
1 Introduction
A tropical virgin forest is a biocenosis where biodiversity is the highest on earth; as

many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four
vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots (Myers et al. 2000). Indonesia has
extensive tropical forests, next only to Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, which include 2 of the 25 hotspots: Sundaland and Wallacea. Indonesia is
therefore called a “mega-diversity country” because it contains so many species,
while only covering approximately 1.3% of the land area of the world (Kawamoto
2011).
Approximately 70% of the national territory of Indonesia (approximately 130 mil-
lion ha) is “state forest area (kawasan hutan)”; it is classified into three categories:
(1) conservation forest (hutan konservasi), (2) protected forest (hutan lindung), and
(3) production forest (hutan produksi). The proportion of each area is as follows: the
conservation forest is 16.2% (approximately 21 million ha), the protected forest is
24.5% (approximately 32 million ha), and the production forest is 59.3% (approx-
imately 78 million ha) of the total forest area (Kementerian Kehutanan 2012a).
To utilize the state forest area, there are six types of forest and wood product
utilization licenses (IUPHHK: Izin Usaha Pemanfaatan Hasil Hutan Kayu): (1) nat-
ural forests (HA: Hutan Alam) (hereafter, NF/HA), (2) industrial tree plantation
(HTI: Hutan Tanaman Industri) (hereafter, ITP/HTI), (3) ecosystem restoration (RE:
Restorasi Ekosistem), (4) community tree plantation (HTR: Hutan Tanaman
Rakyat), (5) community forestry (HKm: Hutan Kemasyarakatan), and (6) village
forest (HD: Hutan Desa). The community tree plantation (HTR), the community
forestry (HKm), and the village forest (HD) are aspects of social forestry that aim to
improve the welfare of local communities and customary law communities, while
balancing the environment and sociocultural dynamics (the regulation of Minister of
Environment and Forestry No. 83 in 2016 regarding social forestry).
Companies carry out their businesses with these licenses. In the last 20 years, the
ITP/HTI was increasingly used in Indonesia (Fig. 5.1). Therefore, ITP/HTI is
becoming increasingly important when considering forest conservation in Indonesia.
In terms of mandatory and voluntary systems for forest conservation in the ITP/HTI
area in Indonesia, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) obliges
ITP/HTI companies to allocate more than 10% of the operation area as a protected
area (the regulation of Minister of Environment and Forestry No. 12 in 2015
regarding the development of industrial tree plantation). In addition to this manda-
tory obligation, some pulp and paper companies have voluntarily declared a zero-
deforestation policy to carry out production activities using only planted trees
procured from ITP/HTI area without cutting down natural forests.
ITP/HTI has attracted many stakeholders. However, ITP/HTI has been contro-
versial due to its large impact on environmental, economic, and social aspects. Some
stakeholders expect ITP/HTI to meet growing timber demand, create employment
opportunities, and contribute to national economic development. In contrast, other
stakeholders, such as environmental and human rights nongovernmental
5 Conflict of Legitimacy Over Tropical Forest Lands: Lessons for Collaboration. . . 121
Fig. 5.1 The transition of natural forest (HA) and industrial tree plantation (HTI) licenses between
1993 and 2011 (source: translated Fujiwara et al. (2015) from Japanese to English by authors.
Original date came from Kementerian Kehutanan (2012a))
organizations (NGOs), strongly criticize ITP/HTI for biodiversity loss caused by

converting natural forests (including past conversion), forest and peatland fire owing
to inappropriate peatland management, and land disputes due to violation of local
people’s rights. To promote collaborations among stakeholders (i.e., co-design,
co-production, and co-delivery) for forest conservation in ITP/HTI, it is therefore
crucially important to discuss the fundamental structure of these conflicts. Here we
introduce the concept of “legitimacy.” Miyauchi (2006) defines legitimacy as a
situation where social recognition and/or approval is established about who should
engage and manage a certain environment and under what value or what kind of
mechanism (or the manner of recognition and/or approval). Abe (2006) characterizes
present forest issues in Indonesia as an interactive process in which multiple
legitimacies have different levels that need to be followed and/or competed.
In the following sections, we discuss (1) inequality of landholding structure and
(2) legal pluralism established by historical circumstances as the fundamental
structure for conflicts of legitimacy over the land of ITP/HTI in Indonesia.
2 Inequality of Landholding Structure
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) contains 17 goals. Among these, Goal
1, “No Poverty,” aims to end poverty in all its forms everywhere, and Goal
10, “Reduced Inequalities,” aims to reduce inequality within and among countries.
In recent years, the economy of Indonesia has grown rapidly. Consequently, the
percentage of people living under the international poverty line ($1.90/day) declined
significantly from 39.3% in 2000 to 6.5% in 2016, despite the fact that 31.0% of
Indonesian people still live under the lower- and middle-income poverty line ($3.20/
Fig. 5.2 Percentage of forest and wood product utilization license (IUPHHK) area (source:
translated Fujiwara et al. (2015) from Japanese to English by authors. Original date came from
Kementerian Kehutanan 2012b)
day) (World Bank 2018a). In contrast, economic disparities have tended to expand in
Indonesia, and the Gini index reached 38.4 in 2016 (World Bank 2018b). According
to the Oxfam briefing paper by Gibson (2017), Indonesia is the sixth-worst country
for inequality of wealth in the world; in other words, the four richest billionaires had
more wealth than the poorest 100 million people combined in 2016. This inequality
of wealth leads to the inequality of opportunity to access health and education
services as well as inequality of power with regard to who decides rules, who
controls capital and resources, and who can challenge the status quo (Gibson 2017).
Although the drivers of wealth inequality in Indonesia are complex and multi-
layered, one of them is a concentration of land ownership in the hands of a few
companies and wealthy individuals (Gibson 2017). According to Kementerian
Kehutanan (2012b), as of November 2012, 743 forest and wood product utilization
licenses (IUPHHK) were issued for approximately 35 million hectares of state forest
area. Of these areas, 68.6% were for NF/HA, and 28.0% were for ITP/HTI (Fig. 5.2).
Therefore, almost all the issued licenses (i.e., 96.6%) were for NF/HA and ITP/HTI
operated by companies. The area designated for improving the welfare of local
communities and customary law communities by social forestry (i.e., the sum of
community tree plantation (HTR), community forestry (HKm), and village forest
(HD)) accounted for only 2.7%.
Furthermore, there is a concentration of land ownership by some NF/HA and
ITP/HTI companies. Seventy-nine percent of NF/HA licenses (234 licenses) and
89.8% of ITP/HTI licenses (210 licenses) were for areas of less than 100,000
Fig. 5.3 Holding situation of natural forest (HA) and industrial tree plantation (HTI) licenses based
on classification by area (source: translated Fujiwara et al. (2015) from Japanese to English by
authors. Original date came from Kementerian Kehutanan (2012b))
hectares. Only 7.1% of NF/HA licenses (21 licenses) and 3.8% of ITP/HTI licenses
(9 licenses) were for areas of more than 200,000 hectares. However, 7.1% of NF/HA
license holders for areas of more than 200,000 hectares held 26.9% of the total area
(approximately 6.5 million ha). Similarly, 3.8% of ITP/HTI license holders held
25.2% of the total area (approximately 2.5 million ha) (Fig. 5.3). Therefore, few
companies held large-scale forestlands. Furthermore, some companies held plural
licenses as a group. As of 2010, 28.6% of the total NF/HA area (approximately 7.07
million ha) was accumulated by only ten company groups, and 39.0% of the total
ITP/HTI area (3.5 million ha) was accumulated by only two company groups
(Kementerian Kehutanan 2010).
Fig. 5.4 Multilayered controversies on the land allocation and zoning of state forest area
In other words, there are companies with several millions of hectares of land,
whereas there are many people who do not have 1 hectare of land in Indonesia. Thus,
the correction of the largely distorted landholding structure has been an important
policy issue in Indonesia. For this reason, the Government of Indonesia has set a goal
to redistribute 9 million hectares of state land, including 4.9 million hectares of state
forest area (TORA: Tanah Obyek Reforma Agraria) and 12.7 million hectares of
social forestry (PS: Perhutanan Sosial), in its National Medium-Term Development
Plan (RPJMN: Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional) 2015–2019.
As we have seen so far, the problem with ITP/HTI is one concerning land
allocation and zoning in the state forest area. There are multiple interests and
multilayered controversies on land allocation and zoning of state forest area
(Fig. 5.4). The first question in meeting this goal is deciding which parts of the
state forest area should be designated for conservation and production. The second
question is which part of the production forest should be designated for economic
development by companies (i.e., NF/HA and ITP/HTI) or livelihood by local people
(i.e., state land redistribution and social forestry). The degree of interest and priority
for problems differs among stakeholders ranging from local to international.
3 Legal Pluralism Formed by Historical Circumstances
The Forestry Law (Law No. 41 in 1999) of Indonesia defines the “state forest area
(kawasan hutan)” as follows: a specific territory designated by the government as
permanent forests. The state forest area is also called “political forest,” which is
defined as political land-use zones meant to remain in permanent forest
(Vandergeest and Peluso 2015, p. 162).
After the independence of Indonesia, the government violently enclosed the state
forest area by the Basic Forestry Law (Law No. 5 in 1967) and the following forest
zoning (TGHK: Tata Guna Hutan Kesepakatan) in the early 1980s (Resosudarmo
2004; Wollenberg et al. 2009). This enabled the government and companies to
accumulate huge profits (Peluso 2011). In contrast, it caused many land conflicts
among the government, companies, and local people, which carry through to the
present day. One area of contention was that these enclosures incorporated a large
part of the Outer Islands (islands excluding Java Island and Madura Island) into the
state forest area and overrode the customary rights of local people, despite the fact
that many people lived in those areas (Fay and Sirait 2002).
Looking further back into history, the Agrarian Law (Agrarisch Besluit), enacted
by the Dutch colonial government, declared that all land, which could not be proven
to be owned (individually or communally) by villagers, was the state land (Peluso
1992). This Agrarian Law made the basis for scientific forestry, which was governed
by a systematic adherence to working plans for logging and replanting (Peluso
1992). The Mizuno and Kusumaningtyas (2016, p. 41) interpret this Agrarian Law
as stating that the domain declaration was issued for this vast territory that is
extremely diverse in terms of biology, society, topography, and soil, precisely in
order to enable large-scale investment by plantation companies while turning a
blind eye to this diversity.
The state lands were further classified into two subsets: (1) unfree state domains
(onvrij landsdomein), which were subject to the hereditary right for individual use
(erfelijk individueel gebruik) or the right to possession by indigenous people
(inlanders bezitrecht), such as proactively cultivated wet-rice fields and other
lands by indigenous people, and (2) free state domains (vrij landsdomein), which
were subject to customary disposal right (beschikkingsrecht), such as shifting culti-
vation lands (Mizuno 1997; Mizuno and Kusumaningtyas 2016). Long-term con-
cessions (hak guna usaha) for Westerners were issued for the free state domains
(Mizuno 1997; Mizuno and Kusumaningtyas 2016). Additionally, there was an
ideology of state forest management in the colonial era that was characterized as
the utilitarian view (i.e., the greatest goods of the greatest number of people) and
scientific forestry, and those looked down on the ecological knowledge of local
people (Peluso 1992; Vandergeest and Peluso 2006a, b).
After the independence of Indonesia, the Basic Agrarian Law (Law No. 5 in
1960) was enacted in 1960. This law aimed at a legal unification of the dual
structures of Western European law and customary law, and it recognized the
existence of “customary communal right of disposal (hak ulayat)” (Mizuno 1997;
Mizuno and Kusumaningtyas 2016). Additionally, it is acknowledged that land

rights were based on customary laws’ land rights (i.e., it recognized customary
land rights of local people for lands that were not proactively cultivated, such as
fallow lands of shifting cultivations, as long as customary land rights had existed
previously) (Mizuno 1997; Mizuno and Kusumaningtyas 2016). However, the
methods for proving the existence of customary land rights varied according to the
times, and it was very difficult for local people to claim their customary land rights
positively in the era of a developmental dictatorship government of the New Order
regime led by President Soeharto (Mizuno 1997; Mizuno and Kusumaningtyas
2016).
After the New Order regime reached its end, land claims by local people and the
movement of land reforms have become very active again (Lucas and Warren 2003).
For example, the article 4 (j) of the Parliamentary Decree IX on Agrarian Reform and
Management of Natural Resources (Tap MPR IX/2001) in 2001 specified the
necessity to recognize, respect, and protect the rights of customary communities
and cultural diversity of the nation on lands and natural resources as the principles of
agrarian reform and natural resource management. More recently, the constitutional
court’s decision, which was finalized in May 2013 (35/PUU-X/2012), declared that
the “customary forest (hutan adat),” previously prescribed as “state forest to be in
the area of the customary law community (masyarakat hokum adat),” by the
Forestry Law (Law No. 41 in 1999) was “forest to be in the area of the customary
law community.” Along with this decision, the MoEF reclassified forests of Indo-
nesia from two categories (i.e., (1) state forest [hutan negara] and (2) privately
owned forest [hutan hak]) to three categories (i.e., (1) state forest [hutan negara],
(2) customary forest [hutan adat], and (3) privately owned forest/[hutan hak]) (the
regulation of Minister of Environment and Forestry No. 32 in 2015 regarding right
forest).
From the above discussion, it appears that there is legal pluralism established by
historical circumstances in ITP/HTI area and the legality, which companies and local
people rely on, as well as the forms of forestry used, often differ. In other words,
ITP/HTI companies are conducting scientific forestry to maximize raw material
production for pulp and paper productive activities with the forest and wood
utilization license (IUPHHK) based on the modern land system formed by
ex-Western European Law. In contrast, local people are conducting forestry for
livelihood, such as agroforestry, including traditional shifting cultivation, with
customary communities’ disposal rights (hak ulayat) based on a customary land
system derived from traditional customary law (Fig. 5.5).
4 Discussion
The tropical forests of Indonesia have attracted many stakeholders because of their
high biodiversity, and their conservation is essential to achieve SDGs. In the last
20 years, there has been a trend towards increasing the use of ITP/HTI in Indonesia.
Fig. 5.5 A model of industrial tree plantation (HTI)
Therefore, ITP/HTI is becoming increasingly important when considering forest

conservation in Indonesia. However, ITP/HTI has been controversial as they have
big impacts on environmental, economic, and social aspects, and there are severe
conflicts among stakeholders (e.g., government, companies, NGOs, and local peo-
ple). To promote collaborations among stakeholders (i.e., co-design, co-production,
and co-delivery) for ITP/HTI problems, it is therefore crucially important to discuss
the fundamental structure of the conflicts. For this reason, we introduced the concept
of “legitimacy” and discussed (1) inequality of landholding structures and (2) legal
pluralism formed by historical circumstances as the fundamental structure for
conflicts of legitimacy over the land of ITP/HTI in Indonesia. The discussions
regarding ITP/HTI in Indonesia shows some key lessons in considering promoting

collaborations among stakeholders in Future Earth.
The first lesson is that the degree of interest in and priority for problems differs
among stakeholders ranging from local to international. In the case of ITP/HTI, the
problem concerns land allocation and zoning of the state forest area, and there are at
least three different interests among stakeholders: biodiversity conservation, eco-
nomic development, and livelihoods of local people. Additionally, these interests are
often in a trade-off relationship. Recently, it appears that attention to the conserva-
tion of tropical forests and their biodiversity is steadily increasing. In contrast, some
scholars express deep concern over community displacements in the name of
environmental conservation (also called Green Grab) (Harada 2018). Therefore,
understanding that stakeholders have different priorities and perceptions of problems
is the first step in collaboration, and coordination of conflicting interests among
stakeholders is crucial to create legitimacy for the collaboration. Regarding the
ITP/HTI problems of Indonesia, the correction of the largely distorted landholding
structure is extremely important to create legitimacy for collaboration among stake-
holders. Conservation and production activities should be based on fair use and
equitable allocation of forestlands.
The second lesson is the importance of considering history. There was legal
pluralism formed by historical circumstances in the ITP/HTI area. It appears that
stakeholders claim their legitimacy based on different legalities formed by historical
circumstances. In other words, the problem differs depending on the time point
considered when discussing the problem. For example, recently, some pulp and
paper companies in Indonesia have voluntarily declared a zero-deforestation policy
to carry out production activities using only planted trees derived from ITP/HTI
without cutting down natural forests. For the production activities based on the zero-
deforestation policy of pulp and paper companies in Indonesia, some stakeholders
highly appreciate their policy as significantly contributing to conserving tropical
forests and biodiversity. In contrast, some stakeholders such as environmental and
human rights NGOs strongly criticize companies based on the historical facts that
immense forest land enclosed by companies to realize production with zero-
deforestation may contain lands converted from natural forests as well as lands
enclosed by violence and by ignoring the customary land rights of local people.
Looking further back on the history, some pulp and paper companies in devel-
oped countries also received international criticism for converting tropical forests on
a large scale and for violating the rights of local people in days past, just like what is
being currently done by Indonesian pulp and paper companies. However, those are
now regarded as environmentally friendly companies, and some of them have
become cooperative members of NGOs. Therefore, awareness of the problem,
interpretation of the historical facts, and evaluation of other stakeholders by certain
stakeholders change over time. In other words, in order to start a collaboration, it is
necessary to build a consensus among stakeholders as to which time point should be
considered when discussing the problem.
The third lesson is that a procedure/method of data presentation agreeable among
stakeholders as independent, neutral, and fair is very important for their
collaboration. In cases in which conflicts among stakeholders are intensive such as

for ITP/HTI in Indonesia, it appears that confidence in and interpretation of
presented data are different for each stakeholder. For example, it is supposed that
high biodiversity is found in a protected area of the ITP/HTI area managed by a
company through a scientific survey. Some stakeholders, who achieve a friendly
relationship with the company, can receive the survey results positively and interpret
it as a company changing their business attitude and making an effort for forest
conservation. In contrast, some stakeholders, who take a critical and confrontational
attitude, may receive the same survey result negatively and interpret it as a company
destroying extensive natural forests with high biodiversity and then implementing
conservation efforts, which are insufficient and for public relations only (also called
greenwashing). Data and information provided by opponent stakeholders may be
unreliable (i.e., is it a fact or an advertisement?). Therefore, data presentation
agreeable among stakeholders is essential to promote their collaborations.
Stakeholders have varying sets of values, and they rely on different legitimacy. In
other words, stakeholders have different perceptions and priorities for the problem
(e.g., biodiversity conservation, economic development, the livelihood of local
people). Additionally, they have different historical awareness of the problem
(e.g., which time point do we go back to, to discuss the land tenure problem?).
Unlike conventional scientific research, scientists are required to adhere to various
values existing in society to collaborate with stakeholders to facilitate transdisci-
plinary research of Future Earth.
(JST) as part of the Future Earth programs, the Environment Research and Technology Develop-
ment Fund (4-1601) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, and
JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP17K15340.
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Accessed 10 December 2018
Chapter 6
Sustainable Community Co-development
Through Collaboration of Science
and Society: Comparison of Success
and Failure Cases on Tsushima Island
Yasunori Hanamatsu, Tomomi Yamashita, and Shota Tokunaga
Abstract This chapter examines how science can co-produce with local communi-
ties and what kind of roles it can play for local revitalization in one of the border
islands of Japan, Tsushima (Nagasaki Prefecture). Currently, depopulation, declin-
ing birthrate, and aging population are accelerating in local regions all over Japan,
and the management and survival of local communities is becoming
“unsustainable.” Therefore, it has become a major issue on how to build a sustain-
able local community around Japan, and various efforts have already been made
everywhere. Under these circumstances, the case of Tsushima is a practical case
study of transdisciplinary research to develop a sustainable local community. This is
also one of the Future Earth research which is based on the “co-design,
co-production, and co-delivery between science and society.” This chapter will
introduce two cases in Tsushima islands, and then, from the perspective of TD
research, emphasize the importance of the role of coordinator, social sensitivity to
local needs and realities, priority, problem framing, and scale setting.
Keywords Tsushima · Social capital · Coordinator · Personality · Social sensitivity
Y. Hanamatsu (*)
Faculty of Law, Kyushu International University, Kitakyushu, Japan
T. Yamashita
Academic Research and Industrial Collaboration Management Office, Kyushu University,
Fukuoka, Japan
S. Tokunaga
Division of Marketing Data Bank, JMA Research Institute Inc., Tokyo, Japan

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_6
1 Introduction
In this chapter, we examine how science (scientists, scientific knowledge, universi-

ties, and other research institutes) can co-produce with local communities (local
society) and what kind of roles it can play for local revitalization in one of the Japan
border islands, Tsushima (Nagasaki Prefecture). Currently, depopulation, declining
birthrate, and aging population are accelerating in local regions all over Japan, and
the management and survival of local communities is becoming “unsustainable.”
Therefore, it has become a major issue on how to build a sustainable local commu-
nity around Japan, and various efforts have already been made everywhere.
Under these circumstances, the case of Tsushima, which is introduced in this
chapter, is a practical case study of transdisciplinary research (hereinafter, TD) to
develop a sustainable local community. This is also one of the Future Earth research
which is based on the “co-design, co-production, and co-delivery between science
and society,” conducted by the interdisciplinary research team from the Institute of
Decision Science for a Sustainable Society, Kyushu University (IDS3). In other
words, this is one of the TD case studies from a local perspective, which tries to
answer the theme of this part of “how can we co-design, co-produce, and co-deliver
with local society toward a sustainable local community?”
Specifically, this chapter will introduce two cases in Tsushima islands: (1) project
which aims to find and resolve local issues with local high school students and
(2) project to revitalize local communities by regenerating abandoned farmland. The
aim of the former project is that local children will grow as local leaders in the future
in a local community that is struggling with population decline, by trying to discover
local resources (including resources of the natural environment as well as the
distinctive history, culture, stories, places, and people in the region) and raising
awareness of local residents. And, the aim of the latter is that local residents are
reusing abandoned farmlands in consideration of biodiversity, to commercialize
high-value-added crops and develop experiential tourism.
In these two projects, the focus is on whether it is possible to achieve “co-design/
co-production/ co-delivery” between science and local societies, and what kind of
implication does “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” have in the planning and
implementation of the project. Then, from the perspective of TD research, the
importance of social capital (face-to-face relationship), the role of coordinator, social
sensitivity to local needs and realities, priority, problem framing, scale setting will be
emphasized.
2 Definition of Local Society and Local Community
First of all, we want to make a simple definition of the concept of “local society” and
“local community” used in this article. The meaning of these words is likely to differ
greatly by country or scholars. The word “local” is very ambiguous (Herod 2011).
6 Sustainable Community Co-development Through Collaboration of Science and. . . 135
The general Japanese word corresponding to “local” is “Chiiki,” but the meaning or
content is similarly diverse (Tonooka 2004). This term may be used in the meaning
of a “prefecture” or “municipality,” or a smaller area where dozens of people live
within relatively small blocks enclosed by several roads or rivers. In addition, other
concepts similar to “local” in English include “region,” “rural,” “municipality,”
“province,” “area,” “village,” “settlement,” “town,” “city,” “field,” “zone,” “dis-
trict,” and “block.” Although the definition of these concepts has been discussed in
each discipline such as political science, geography, sociology, cultural anthropol-
ogy, and urban planning (Sakamoto 1966; Mitsuhashi 2007), the difference is not
clearly defined or understood. It is not the purpose of this chapter to closely follow
these discussions on the definition of “local” (Yohannan et al. 2014; Hooghe and
Marks 2016). However, for the moment, it is necessary to define the concepts of
“local society” and “local community” in this chapter, because comparisons with
other local cases are meaningless if the geographical scale, spatial range, scope of the
targeted local people, and limits of jurisdiction are not clear and do differ from case
to case (Ihara 1983).
The “local society” used in this chapter refers to all types of societies that are
established at a lower level than the national level. It may mean an area of local
government such as prefecture or municipality in Japanese administrative division,
or an area of smaller unit, scale, community, or neighborhood. Therefore, it is to be
regarded in the broad sense of the word without limitation as far as it is located
within the national territorial jurisdiction. In connection with such a geographical
scope, the term “local people,” “locals,” and “local resources” are used without
limiting the scope.
On the other hand, the term “local community” is used in the sense of more
restrictive, limited scope. It is usually regarded as a smaller unit than the municipal-
ity that Japanese people often imagine in the word “Chiiki” (local). In addition, it
should also be a “community” where some material is shared by a group of people.
Specifically, it is a communal unit that is composed of several or thousands of
households with a certain geographical range. Because there is a variation in the
scale, it is called “town” when the number of members is large, or is called “village”
or “settlement” when it is small. When the geographical area is relatively broad, it is
sometimes referred to as “district.” However, the common feature is that a certain
level of resident’s self-governance or autonomy exists. Of course, there is a possi-
bility that all residents share something even on the prefecture or municipal level.
However, in Japan where the scope and scale of municipality is too large in the
world, the resident’s autonomy at the level of daily life is usually implemented in a
smaller scale than municipality. Such a smaller scale is called a “local community”
in this chapter, and it is likely to be referred to as “rural community” in other cases.
The above definition is likely to be criticized from various disciplines, but is to be
set up just only for convenience to clarify the range of this chapter in accordance
with the purpose of this part. It must be emphasized repeatedly that our case of “co-
design/co-production/co-delivery” especially focuses on the “local community” that
is a unit smaller than municipality and has something shared by a group of people as
self-governance.
Finally, we would like to briefly explain why local community in such a small
scale should be focused on. First, municipality which is often imagined in the word
“Chiiki” (local) by Japanese people has a very large geographical range or popula-
tion size, and has a wide variety of culture, history, industry, lifestyle, and interests.
Therefore, it is very difficult to think of municipality as a single unit or a bundle of
community. In other words, Japanese municipality on a large scale will always have
difficulty in promoting the collaborative “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” with
various stakeholders living in the society that is demanded in Future Earth research.
Hence, in order to achieve “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” within a local
society, it is necessary to “scale down” to a small “local community” level where
local people can share something in a substantial form.
Second, as mentioned earlier, the municipalities in Japan are losing their financial
and governance capabilities for tackling the problem of declining population and
birthrate. As a result, it is becoming difficult for municipalities to provide an
adequate quality of public services to all areas of jurisdiction, or to solve the
problems in the entire region. Under the circumstances, some of new approaches
in local governance have already started. For example, an entire area of municipality
is subdivided into small areas of tens to thousands of households. Then, local people
in such a small unit establish a “resident’s organization” (“resident’s self-governance
unit”), while municipalities provide financial and human support. The “resident’s
organization” is administered and managed by local people themselves, and also
responsible for providing a part of the public service such as water supply, childcare
service, and local event on behalf of the municipal organization. Unnan City in
Shimane Prefecture is the pioneer region where 30 resident’s organizations in the
city are actively engaged in the operation of public service. On the other hand, on the
nationwide scale in Japan, more than 3000 resident’s organizations were already
established, and it is usually called “self-governance organization of small scale and
multi-function” with much attention.
It can be pointed out that, in recent years, local autonomy or self-governance in a
smaller scale of community is demanded more and more in Japan, as public
governance and problem solving at the national or municipality level have become
unsustainable gradually. In light of the viewpoint of this chapter, this trend indicates
that, in order to “co-design/co-produce” a sustainable local society, it is necessary to
consider at the level or scale of smaller “local community” rather than the munic-
ipality level.
3 Tsushima Island
We would like to briefly introduce the outline of the subject of case studies presented
in this chapter and the current situation in Tsushima island in Nagasaki Prefecture.
Tsushima island is a border island located at the north westernmost end of Japan.
It is the tenth largest island in Japan, and the current population is about 30,000
people. About 90% of the area is covered with forest and mountain, and because
Significant Decrease of Population & Households

in Tsushima Island
population
households
number
year
Source: Tsushima City, 2nd Comprehensive City Planning (2016)
Fig. 6.1 Change in population and households in Tsushima Island
there is little land suitable for cultivation, people’s lives have been managed by the
exchange and trade with Korean peninsula which is 49.5 km away from the island
since ancient times. Moreover, because it is a border remote island, the island as a
whole functioned in the past as a military fortress, and development such as
construction of the road has been restrained for many years. Therefore, Tsushima
was one of the most “undeveloped” regions in Japan, as the folklore scholar
Tsuneichi Miyamoto said in 1960 that “the Middle Ages still remain in Tsushima”
(Miyamoto 1984). Since the modern era, fishery has become a key industry, but with
the decline in fishery resources in recent years, the population has already fallen
down to less than the half of the 1960s (Fig. 6.1).
In line with the population decline, one of the most serious problems is the
declining birthrate and aging population. The average of total special fertility rate
in Tsushima City from 2008 to 2012 is 2.18, and this is the fifth highest in all
municipalities in Japan. However, the total number of children continues to decrease
every year due to the population decline of the parent generation, and in recent years,
elementary and junior high schools have been forced to close. A lot of children go
out of the island after graduating high school for getting a job or going on to a
university, and most of them do not return to the islands afterward. On the other
hand, the aging rate, which shows the percentage of people of 65 years or over in the
total population, is 33.9% in Tsushima City in 2015 (Fig. 6.2). This rate is said to be
the same as that of the entire country of Japan after 20 years. In addition, there are
Population
Aging Rate
in Tsushima
2015: 33.9%
2025: 40%
Fig. 6.2 Population aging rate in Tsushima (Source: Tsushima City, 2nd Comprehensive City
Planning, 2016)
some areas in the island where the aging rate has already exceeded 60%. It indicated
that the number of local people who can accept the responsibility for supporting a
senior citizen in the island has been extremely declining.
As an approach to this problem, Tsushima City has been working on the project
“collaboration between university and local society” (Tsushima City 2020) since
2014. This is the national project in Japan from 2012 in which university students
and teachers work with local people together to promote “activities that contribute to
the revitalization of local communities and the development of local human
resources” (Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication 2012). Tsushima
City has been attracting attention as one of the pilot model cases. More than
500 university students and graduate students visit Tsushima from all over the
country every year, and they collaborate with local people in various fields of natural
science, social science, and humanities. Many of them are continually tackled and
there are also successful cases that have a positive effect on the region, but there is
also the challenge that this kind of collaborative approach is not necessarily being
implemented in all areas and problems in the island.
On the other hand, so many Korean tourists have visited from Busan on
the opposite bank of the strait to Tsushima island. Since the opening of the interna-
tional sea route between Tsushima and Busan in 1999, the number of tourists from
Fig. 6.3 Increasing number of foreigners entering Tsushima
Korea has increased every year, and in 2018, the number of foreign immigrants has
exceeded 400,000 (Fig. 6.3). Most of them are Koreans and have reached about
thirteen times the population of Tsushima City. The tourism consumption by Korean
tourists has increased by 2.4 times in the last 5 years, and the two port cities in
Tsushima where regular vessels arrive are undergoing remarkable development in
recent years. However, it is said that the recipient of the profit is limited to a part of
tourist companies and construction contractors doing business activities around the
port city, and the feeling of doing good business in tourism is hardly felt in other
areas with small population size. On the other hand, the tourist needs for Koreans in
Tsushima are diversified, and the development of the tourism service and tourist
attractions is demanded firmly. Nevertheless, regarding the promotion of tourism,
efforts made by local residents themselves as well as cooperative joint projects
through the aforementioned municipality project of “collaboration between univer-
sity and local society” have been rarely observed.
Based on the current situation in Tsushima, our team was aware of the following
issues: (1) Is it possible to take an interdisciplinary approach of “co-design/co-
production” for improving the sustainability of the local areas that have not been
tackled in the past, based on the framework of the municipality project of “collab-
oration between university and local society”? (2) Is it possible to “co-produce” a
sustainable community in cooperation with local residents or universities, by orga-
nizing both university students and Korean tourists as not guests (objects) but
players (subjects) for supporting local communities? (3) Is it possible to make an
opportunity for children who were born and bred in the island and then go out of the
island, to return to the island in the future and play an active part as a supporter of the
community without relying too much on the power of “Yosomono” (people coming
from outside)? (4) What conditions or requirements will be necessary for tackling the
abovementioned issues at the level of the local community which is a smaller unit
than municipality?
4 Project “Looking for Island Treasures” by Local High

School Students
The first case is an attempt to “co-produce” a sustainable local community with local
people and local high school students by rediscovering local resources. One of the
purposes of the project is that the local high school students are expected to learn
afresh about the local community where they live in, try to find the local resources,
and to resolve the problems in local community by “co-designing/co-producing”
with local residents and university students. Second, they are also expected to have a
feeling of attachment or a sense of mission to their home island by knowing well the
local community and finally become the supporter of the community after returning
to the island in the future. Third, local people are expected to take a look at the hard
struggle by local high school students and have an awareness of the social issues and
their own role or responsibility to contribute to the establishment of the sustainable
local community. In this project, for the purposes mentioned above, it must be
examined what kind of function science or university can perform in such a “co-
design/co-production,” and on what conditions or requirements local community
and university can “co-design/co-produce” a sustainable local society.
4.1 Background of the Project Starting
In the winter of 2015, we were talking with the president of the local construction
company, the head of the Commerce and Industry Association, and municipal
officials (Tsushima City officials) in Kamitsushima town located in the northernmost
part of Tsushima. This was the first time to talk together with the counterpart of the
industry, local government, and academia on the future of Kamitsushima town,
although we had connected with various parties in this area through the educational
program in the university or the fieldwork research on borders.
One of the municipal officials in the meeting was Mr. K who was working in
Tsushima City as a temporary staff. He came to Tsushima from Tokyo with a 3-year
term as a new supporter of the local community, by the fiscal backup of the Japan
Ministry of Internal Affairs and commissioned by Tsushima City. He was an
excellent talent who penetrated deeply into and understood the realities of the
local community by using his delicate standing position of “half-inhabitant” and

“semi-outsider.” He also played an important role in connecting local islanders with
“outsiders,” or “guests” coming from outside the island such as university
researchers.
In Kamitsushima, the municipality so far had been taking various initiatives
aiming at the revitalization of the local community, and it did not go quite well. A
good idea had not occurred to the local people, and it was expected to have good
wisdom from outside. While the number of Korean tourists increases every year, the
improvement of tourism service, attraction, and hospitality remained to be discussed
for many years. Moreover, the shopping street which is the symbol of the community
was deserted without traffic, and the decline of the community had progressed in the
visible form. The sense of urgency that we had to respond as soon as possible was
shared by all concerned.
Then, Mr. K raised the topic of Kamitsushima high school which is one of three
high schools in Tsushima City. The number of students in this high school has
decreased rapidly as the area declines, and it is now facing a crisis of “closing down.”
The existence of the school is vital for the survival of the local community, and the
close-down of the high school will have an adverse effect on the local community.
Mr. K proposed to launch a special educational program in order to overcome the
close-down crisis. His proposal is that students are expected to learn something
interesting in the field outside the classroom altogether with local people, munici-
pality, and university students coming from outside.
Then, we hit on a plan that the local high school student will learn the realities or
problems in the local community by interviewing various local residents while
walking in the shopping street. In addition, the plan expected them to try to resolve
the problem in the community and then make a presentation of an idea for revital-
izing the local community toward local businessmen. The president of the local con-
struction company and the head of the Commerce and Industry Association agreed to
this proposal, hoping that the young high school students would consider the idea of
revitalizing the area while wishing for the continuation of a local high school, a
source of vitality in the local area. We also agreed that it would be an interesting
initiative to stimulate the local people by involving local high schools.
What we had to consider for starting the project was who will plan, organize, and
implement such an extracurricular class. Even if the municipality or businessmen are
familiar with the actual situation of the area, they do not have know-how and enough
time to teach high school students. On the other hand, high school teachers have pro-
fessional skills of teaching in classroom, but in fact they do not have much contact
with the area outside the school, and it is difficult to say that they understand fully the
situation and the problem of the local area. Most teachers are actually “strangers” to
the local area, and not “local people” because the teacher of the prefectural high
school has the practice of repeatedly transferring to another high school in Nagasaki
every few years.
Then, we thought that the researchers and graduate students of the university
can accept the work of teaching the realities of the local area to the local high school
student. We are certainly “strangers” coming from outside of the island, but we are
slightly familiar with local people in Kamitsushima because we had been engaged
with the education practice there many times. We researchers have some
experience and knowledge about resolving local problems and have enough
know-how to teach students. On the other hand, the graduate students who have
participated in the educational practice in various regions have the experience of
finding and solving problems in local areas. In addition, it was preferable, from the
viewpoint of the educational effect on graduate students, that the graduate students
themselves carried out the joint fieldwork for finding and solving problems with the
high school students who were comparatively close in age to them.
Therefore, we can summarize the roles and interests of each of the stakeholders as
follows. First, the university including researchers and graduate students is respon-
sible for planning the education programs of local high school students and actual
classroom management of the joint fieldwork. In doing so, the graduate students
have the advantage of being facilitators and deepening their involvement in resolv-
ing local problems, which will promote a study on community for graduate students.
Next, the high school will be able to show the appeal to avoid the close-down crisis
by implementing a unique, distinctive education program. In addition, the local
businessmen and Commerce and Industry Association will give advice on the
selection of interviewed persons and arrange a presentation meeting directed at
local people scheduled at the end of the year. By obtaining ideas from a fresh
viewpoint of the local high school students, they will be able to propose a project
that will stop the decline of the area. Finally, the municipality will coordinate the
entire stakeholders, standing between the high school, the university, the business
operators, and the Commerce and Industry Association. By undertaking such a
coordination work, it can produce a satisfactory result on the municipal project
“collaboration between university and local society” and another project “collabo-
ration between high school and university” which are also progressing nationwide in
recent years.
The first challenge was whether the high school, the most important stakeholder,
would accept this project. At this point, high school officials did not participate in the
process of the planning discussion. Therefore, it would be a complete surprise for the
high school side. At first, we thought that Mr. K and our university researchers
would submit the petition to the high school. However, the president of the local
construction company who was a co-planner of the project suddenly visited the high
school and persuaded the principal to accept the project. It was also a complete
surprise for us that the project was decided to start in such a way.
Then, we university team would be in charge of the extracurricular class for the
26 high school students. They would find attractions and problem in the area, try to
solve the problem, and finally make a presentation to local people. The project is
named “Looking for Island Treasures” project for the purpose of exploring the
challenges and possibilities of the local community while rediscovering the attrac-
tions of the island.
It is true that the high school side wished to have a distinctive educational
program to avoid the close-down crisis, but it is presumed that the most influential
driving force for reaching that decision is the specific interpersonal relationship
between the president of the local construction company and the principal of the
high school. In other words, we have to emphasize that research and education
ability and scientific knowledge of our university have not had a big influence on the
start of the project.
4.2 Trial Experiment in the First Year
Since the project has started suddenly, we did not necessarily share a clear under-
standing or image of a goal setting, a definite division of roles, and a feasible
outcome from the beginning among all the stakeholders. Rather, it proceeded
through trial and error approach, while we “try for the time being, and then
re-examine or revise if there occurs a problem.” The reason is that such an approach
of repeated trial and error (the so-called adaptive governance) is suitable according
to circumstances of the community and the change of the interests of each stake-
holder (Folke et al. 2005; Brunner et al. 2005).
In 2016, which was the first year, all the stakeholders felt in the dark about the
project. Even our university group, who were supposed to lead the fieldwork and
group work of high school students, had to go through the confusion occasionally
because it was the first experience of the “co-design/co-production” project. The
involvement of our university group in the management of the class was limited
because we were afraid of confusing the high school teachers. Due to the circum-
stances of the university group, it was not possible to get enough students to
participate in the class, so the members of university students in charge of each
high school student group changed every time. As a result, the mutual trust relation-
ship between high school students and our university group was not able to develop
well. It was also the first time for high school teachers to get students out of school
and to interview local people, so it was a very confusing experience. It was supposed
that there were a lot of high school teachers who were attending the joint fieldwork
and group work with the question “what is the meaning of such a hard extracurricular
activity?”
Still, the students who were divided into five groups continued the interview
investigation in their own ways. They investigated the attractiveness and problems
about the local food culture, natural resources, history, the annual “border marathon”
events, and hosting Korean visitors in the community. Finally, they showed the
results of the group investigation at a town meeting where local residents and
business operators participated (Picture 6.1).
It actually has become a great stimulus for the people of the community, as the
participants of 20 local residents and business owners asked sharp questions about
the students’ presentations. In the questionnaire survey toward the high school
students after the presentation, there were several positive comments such as “It
was pleasant,” “It was stimulated,” and “it was good to know a lot about the local
community where I lived.” In addition, the high school teacher also seemed to have
obtained a feeling of satisfaction and accomplishment.
Picture 6.1 Presentation of the students group investigation at a town meeting
On the other hand, in the opinion of students and teachers, there were many
comments indicating that they wanted our university group to be involved more
actively in their work. “We want them to go to the fieldwork with us every time,”
“we wished the same university group member to take charge of each group every
time by communicating with each other,” and “we want to have a more friendly chat
with university group members.” A lot of comments asked for the enhancement of
communication and trust between high school and university. In fact, we university
group members were not able to carry out the work with a well-organized plan.
Therefore, they indicated dissatisfaction and regret that the project was not able to
achieve complete presentation and practice of the solution, even if they were able to
point out the problem in the local community. In addition, we also received many
expectations and requests for the intellectual resources of the university. “We wanted
them to show a model of interview to us”, “we want them to teach us more and more
about how to make a good questionnaire survey,” “we want them to give more
guidance and advice of presentation by PowerPoint,” and so on.
As described above, even if there is plenty of scope for improvement, the results
of trial experiments in the first year gave a positive impression to each stakeholder.
We also received a nice request from the high school side that “we want you to
continue this project not only this time but also next year.” On the other hand, a
variety of problems were also highlighted. Therefore, it was the key to the project
success to overcome and improve these problems next year.
4.3 Development Phase in Second Year
In response to the reflection of the first year, the second year of the 2017 project
focused on communication between stakeholders and started in a way that greatly
strengthened the commitment of university members.
Mr. K, who has been a key coordinator among the stakeholders, left the island
with the termination of his term, and a successor Mr. S was to play a similar role as a
new temporary municipal official. Therefore, it is important to carry out the succes-
sion of tasks from Mr. K to Mr. S, and to conduct a thorough meeting between
stakeholders in order to aim for further development while taking into account the
circumstances to the point. In the first year, the project was started without sufficient
planning, but the second year began with a meeting from four months before the start
of the class, and a total of 20 meetings were held between the stakeholders through-
out the year (Picture 6.2). In addition, the role sharing between stakeholders has
become clear through the previous year trial. It was agreed that the university
members would be more actively involved in the planning and management of
educational programs (Fig. 6.4). In addition, it seems that the high school teacher
tried to get involved in this project more proactively, as a result of a thorough
meeting beforehand and continuously exchanging opinions about the aim and
contents of the project many times. As described later, the accumulation of such
Picture 6.2 Continuous meetings among stakeholders

“Interest” & “Role” of Stakeholders

Kyushu
High School
Univ.
want to make unique curriculum want to be the key player of
to avoid "school shut down crisis" local community building practice
Win-Win
Relationship
curriculum management curriculum making
educational care Successful facilitating
Co-Design
Local Government Local ACI
want to link between local people, want to make use of an ideas of high
students, businessman & "outsider" school students for revitalization
(ex. university)
mediator coordination with local

total coordination businessmen
Fig. 6.4 Interest and role of each stakeholder in the project
in-depth meetings and face-to-face communication led to the success of the project
by building a strong trust relationship between stakeholders.
The number of students in the second year has increased by 36. On the other
hand, it has greatly increased the attendance and participation frequency of the
university members to ensure sufficient communication and trust with all students.
The organizing staff was 10 members composed of university teachers and graduate
students, approximately twice as many as the previous year. Although the frequency
of our participation was about five times in the previous year, the second year was
approximately 15 times. We supported not only extracurricular fieldwork, but also
the facilitation of group work for setting up and analyzing tasks in the classroom
(Picture 6.3), and the preparations for their presentation in a meeting with local
residents. In addition, prior to the full-fledged start of the class, preparative lectures
and group works were carried out twice beforehand (Picture 6.4). By giving high
school students sufficient preparation time, students were able to set up their own
problems without being swayed by instructions from high school teachers and
university members. As a result, the friendship between the university and the
high school students was significantly improved, and the students’ willingness to
participate in the project was clearly increased.
With the involvement of our university members in almost every class and
fieldwork, the quality of the surveys by high school students has risen significantly.
One of the groups discussed a concrete proposal about the strategy to increase jobs in
local society based on the result of the interview investigation (Picture 6.5). There
Picture 6.3 Facilitating a student group work by a university group member
Picture 6.4 Preparative lecture by a university graduate student

Picture 6.5 Interview research with local people and businessmen
was a group who carefully examined a sensitive problem of whether the local
community in Tsushima island ought to receive Korean tourists or not, and finally
tried themselves to guide Korean tourists in the street. In addition, another group
conducted a questionnaire survey both to Korean tourists and to Japanese tourists,
and came up with a concrete proposal to improve tourism hospitality by receiving
more than 500 answers from tourists. The findings of the latter group won the best
prize at a poster session of the academic research event sponsored by Tsushima City
at a later date. We also tried to maintain a good relationship with local residents by
exchanging frequent greetings with the local businessmen and people who supported
the high school students’ interviews and questionnaires survey.
The second year of project activity was also widely featured in the local news-
paper, and it became well known to local residents (Picture 6.6). In addition to
having the opportunity to talk about the project in the high school cultural festival,
we also held the same presentation event for local residents as the previous year, and
high school students fruitfully exchanged views with about 20 local people. This
project has become more and more popular among local residents, and high schools
students and teachers have been able to fully realize the impact of the project on the
local society.
The results of the questionnaire survey to high school students after the end of the
class showed that the high school students changed their minds about the local
society. As shown in Fig. 6.5, the students commented that “I was able to think
Picture 6.6 Reported in local newspapers
Fig. 6.5 Comments from • I was able to think deeply about Tsushima.
high school students after • I have noticed the attractiveness of the community.
the project • I was surprised to know that population will decrease
dramatically in Tsushima.
• I want to participate more frequently in local events.
• I want to come back to Tsushima after university graduation.
• I came to think of what I can contribute to Tsushima.
• I have to make me responsible for the Future of Tsushima.
• I want to become a local community leader in the future.
• I found this island is so attractive to outsiders and foreign
tourists.
• I have never thought about Tsushima much deeper before.
deeply about Tsushima,” and “I have noticed the attractiveness of the community” in
the same way as in the previous fiscal year. Moreover, there were positive comments
such as “I want to participate in local events more and more,” “I want to return back
to Tsushima in the future,” “I came to think about what I could do for Tsushima,”
and “I want to become a local leader in the community in the future.” This shows that
they did not only capture the attractiveness and problems of their island from an
Change of Mind in high school students

“Do you want to make positive efforts to contribute to
local community building?”
Before Project Before Project
After Project After Project
grades
grades
N=36
Indicators (5 grades)
• I can change the current situation of our local community.
• I want to participate in the local politics in a positive manner.
• I want to do local volunteer activity when I have a chance.
• I want to have a job here and contribute to our local community in the future.
Fig. 6.6 Change of mind in high school students before and after the project
objective point of view, but also seemed to have the intention to be deeply involved
in the future of the island or community. These comments also show that this project
may actually contribute to the purpose that local children will have a sense of
attachment to the local community where they were born and raised, and a sense
of responsibility to become a local community leader after returning to the island in
the future” as expected from the project designing phase.
This conclusion was also backed up by a questionnaire to the high school students
that shows how the student’s consciousness changed before and after the project.
Figure 6.6 shows the result of the question to all 36 students, “Do you want to make
positive efforts to contribute to local community building?” They self-evaluated in
five grades for four indicators before and after the project. The result shows that their
willingness to contribute to the community is greatly increased after the project than
before.
4.4 Examining from the Perspective of “Co-design/

Co-production/Co-delivery”
Based on the achievements and results of the “Looking for Island Treasure” project
conducted over 2 years, what can be said from the perspective of “co-design/co-
production/co-delivery” in Future Earth studies and TD research? Finally, we will

summarize from our own six perspectives.
First, the geographical, societal scale, and scope of the project were appropriate
for the purpose. Although the target area should be the whole town of Kamitsushima
with about 3800 people given the range of a school district where students attend the
school, but the 26 students who participated in the project actually performed
fieldwork at the Hitakatsu area, a central part of Kamitsushima town, where about
800 people in 400 households lived in. The quality of the project and the impact on a
community seem to have been secured by limiting the geographical scale to the small
local community of 800 people, instead of expanding to the large scale of the entire
Tsushima City or Kamitsushima town. In this sense, scaling of geographical and
human ranges was appropriate in light of one of the TD indicators (“scaling”) shown
in this part. It was also important to limit stakeholders to high school, university,
commerce associations, local businesses, and municipality in order to carry out
projects on such a small scale. There were many other individuals and organizations
in the community, and it was not impossible to get them involved with the project for
the purpose of it. However, it was likely that the uncertainty of the interest adjust-
ment would increase, and the achievement of the goal would be difficult if we
involved in the project other local individuals, organizations, and larger administra-
tive bodies such as prefecture, central government, and international organizations
(even if it is actually impossible). All individuals and organizations involved in
collaborative work would usually have and wish to achieve their own intentions and
interests. In that sense, it can be said that the “stakeholding” which is the selection of
the interested party according to “scaling” was also appropriate.
The second is the success of building trust relationships between stakeholders. In
the first year, sufficient planning and staffing were difficult and impossible, but in the
second year, a sufficient good relationship was established between the stakeholders
by conducting continuous elaborate meetings and emphasizing communication with
high school students. As a result, consensus was formed between stakeholders
almost perfectly about the policy, aim, and content of the project, and finally the
“co-design” was successfully achieved. This means the fulfillment of “social capital”
as a building of trust between stakeholders (TD indicators shown in this part), but in
more detail the following can be said. First is that the agreement on the “framing”
(TD indicators shown in this part) of changing minds of the local populace while
educating the local high school student as future supporters of the local community
has been successfully achieved. Second, the consensus on “priority” (TD indicator
shown in this part) has been achieved in that each stakeholder’s interests and
intentions are mutually harmonized complementarily. On the other side, “transition
process” (TD indicators shown in this part) to reconcile conflicts and gaps between
stakeholders was not generated. These points seem to be a major factor for going
further to the “co-production” without stopping at the “co-design” stage.
Third, Mr. K and Mr. S, who were temporary municipal officials,
successsfully played a major role as coordinator for the entire project. Because
they were in a position to stay in Tsushima only for the term of three years, they
could have a “halfway” standpoint, so to speak, neither a complete outsider nor a
complete resident. However, on the contrary, their halfway position enabled them to
pay fair attention to each stakeholder while taking the distance moderately with all
stakeholders (“sensitivity” and “fairness” as TD indicators shown in this part), and
build the trust relation with each other. In the case of TD research, there are cases
where scientists and university members are working as coordinators. However,
since Mr. K and Mr. S played the role of coordinator in this project, we university
members were able to be released from a neutral role of the coordinator (“indepen-
dent/ neutral” as TD indicators shown in this part). This enabled our university
members to act independently as one of the active stakeholders rather than the entire
coordinator. In summary, it can be said that the role of coordinator should not
necessarily be taken on by scientists or university. In other words, other subject
actors might be suitable for coordinator in order to achieve a successful co-design
and co-production.
Fourth, the credibility of the university’s scientific knowledge and research
technology might have influenced the success of the project. Although whether or
not the methodology of interviews and questionnaires can be said to be “scientific”
in a strict sense seems to be debatable, expectations from high school teachers and
students for these methods were so large at the end of the first year. In fact, it is also
true that in the second year, the quality of research has been improved owing to these
techniques provided by our university members. On the other hand, “citizenship
education” that has its origin in the UK (Crick 2000), which raises the consciousness
of political participation of citizens and people, has been attracting attention in the
discipline of political science. If we can regard this project as one of such “citizen-
ship education” (Tokunaga and Akiho 2018), we can also see that in this project a
method of “citizenship education” has been accepted as a scientific and technical
tool. This shows the possibility of “usefulness of science” in TD research
(TD indicator shown in this part), and such method can be applied to other locals
and cases. In this sense, this project can also be regarded as a case that indicates the
potential of “co-delivery.” On the other hand, the usefulness of scientific knowledge
and reliance on it were based on a strong relationship between stakeholders and the
hard work of Mr. K and Mr. S as coordinators. Therefore, merely adopting such
method would not necessarily have been able to lead to the success of this project.
Fifth, it is about the factor of “personality” (TD indicator shown in this part) that
depends on the standpoint and ability of a particular stakeholder. In particular, this
project was highly dependent on the temporary municipal officials Mr. K and Mr. S,
but, on the other hand, the adverse effects of the substitution of a coordinator from
Mr. K to Mr. S were mitigated by the relationship of trust and communication among
other stakeholders. Therefore, it can be said that the influence of personality was able
to be overcome by other such factors.
Finally, the sixth is about time setting. This chapter introduced the process of the
project until the end of the second year, but from that time it is likely to take a long
time for the results of the project to appear in a tangible way. It is not yet clear
whether the high school students who actually performed fieldwork will return to the
island in the future and become a local leader of the community. In addition, this
project was also taken up by the local media, and became known to a certain extent
in Tsushima island, but it has not yet come to the next stage where the external social
evaluation (“legitimacy” as a TD indicator shown in this part) has been obtained
apart from the internal evaluation among the relevant stakeholders. In that sense, it
will take much longer to confirm the final success of this project. On the other hand,
the financial support of JST for Future Earth research is in only five years, including
two years of feasibility study and further three years as a full research period. Here,
we would like to emphasize that there is a significant gap between the amount of
time it actually takes to get results in the field site and that of time that can be
supported as a Future Earth TD research. Strictly speaking, it is virtually impossible
for science and universities to “co-design/co-produce” a successful result with
society in a short period of five years. Therefore, from the beginning of the project,
we have been preparing for achieving the phase of “self-propelled” by local stake-
holders alone to continue this project, on the premise that we university would
“withdraw” from the project as a stakeholder after the three years full-scale research
period has passed. For that purpose, we prompted the high school teachers to
understand completely the significance of this project, and continue the project as
an annual educational program. In addition, the know-how of fieldwork research,
facilitation, and presentation should be accumulated by the high school, and taken
over among teachers who transfer from and to the high school. This project should
also be a regular local event supported by the local Chamber of Commerce,
businessmen, and municipality. If it will be taken over well, it is possible to be
arranged and organized only by the local stakeholders continuously even after the
university leaves. In fact, it is expected to be carried out only by local stakeholders
from 2019. Whether this project will continue in the future is not yet known, but
given the limited role that scientists and universities can play in the local society in a
limited period of time, we university are required to start the process of “co-design/
co-production” while keeping in mind a future image of phase “self-propelled” by
local stakeholders.
5 Project “Reconversion of Abandoned Farmland”

in Consideration of Biodiversity
The second case is a project aimed at rebuilding a sustainable local community by

reconverting an abandoned farmland straggling all over the island of Tsushima. As
mentioned above, Tsushima has accelerated the population and birthrate decline in
recent years, and the population of the elderly is increasing and simultaneously the
number of young people is decreasing in local communities. As a supporter and
manpower of agriculture becomes insufficient, agriculture that has been managed
until then in local communities is becoming “unsustainable.” As a result, agricultural
farmland is abandoned as it is, and “abandoned farmland” which is left uncultivated
is now increasing rapidly. There is no objective statistical data, but according to
Tsushima City, the percentage of abandoned farmland in the entire cultivatable land
area is more than 50%. This phenomenon is seen in the whole country of Japan in
recent years (Japan Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 2017), but it is
especially remarkable in Tsushima island. And with the decline in population,
birthrate, and agricultural industry, the transformation of a local community toward
“marginal settlements” (Yamashita 2012) is further accelerating. Therefore, we
thought of the plan to restore such abandoned land to a richly cultivated land with
high biodiversity, and to raise value-added crops which conserve rare organisms,
while mobilizing inbound tourists such as Korean and university students coming
from outside the island as the manpower for agricultural work. We also expected that
it is to give vitality to a local community by securing a high profit.
In doing so, it must be questioned what kind of role does science and university
play, and on what conditions are science and university able to “co-design/co-
produce” with the local community?
5.1 Background of the Project Planning
The project was born from the idea of our researchers’ group in IDS3. We have
originally been interested in the unique natural environment of Tsushima and the
problem of the community degradation. As we have visited Tsushima many
times and drove around the island, we were very surprised to see too much aban-
doned farmland. At that time, a project idea has suddenly occurred to us to restore
abandoned farmland in order to promote the community revitalization. What should
be noted here is that the project plan has not been studied based on local needs and
data obtained from local interviews, but has actually been started from a pure idea
of our scientists and researchers.
The contents of the plan are as follows (Fig. 6.7). It is difficult to simply restore
abandoned land to the original farmland. Of course, it takes a lot of effort and labor,
but the most important point is that the crops produced on farmland restored in the
conventional form are low in profitability and are “not worth the candle.” This is a
common problem that farmers working all over the country are facing. Therefore, we
thought of changing such an abandoned land to a high-biodiversity farmland. It was
expected that the reconversion of abandoned farmland into eco-friendly farmland
enables to produce highly value-added crops with high price, because the survival of
rare animals may be ensured in such an ecological farmland.
A rare animal, the Tsushima Leopard Cat inhabits in Tsushima (Picture 6.7). It is
the cat that does not live in Japan except in Tsushima, and is designated as a “Natural
Monument of Japan,” and listed as “Critically Endangered Species (IA)” in the Red
Data Book edited by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. It is a subspecies of the
Bengal cat which has originally crossed from the Korean peninsula, and is a unique
animal living only in Tsushima island in Japan. Its scarcity and appearance enjoys
huge nationwide popularity.
The number and range of the Tsushima leopard cat are recently decreasing in
the island. It is said that one of the major causes is a decrease in cultivated land. The
“Reconversion of abandoned farmland” Project
・depopulation ・recovery of biodiversity

・aging society ・value-added food production
・no supporters ・improve local economy
Abandoned cultivated land Active and eco-friendly farmland
Convert
Ground
making
Operation &
(+Tourism)
Maintenance Menu of environmental
Local people (+Green Tourism) rehabilitation
・Mosaic-like reconversion
Outsiders (students ・Installation of stone habitats for snake
・Creation of biotope pond
& inbound tourists) ・Low fertilizer application & low pesticide use
Fig. 6.7 Outline of the “reconversion of abandoned farmland” project
Tsushima leopard cat usually feeds on rats and aquatic insects which live in the
cultivated land such as rice fields. However, as the cultivated land disappears, such
food for the Tsushima leopard cat is decreasing. Therefore, by transforming an
abandoned land into a high-biodiversity ecosystem environment and making it a
habitat and feeding area for the Tsushima Leopard Cat, it is possible to contribute to
the preservation of the Tsushima leopard cat. And, the crops made on such a high-
biodiversity farmland are added value and regarded as “crops to preserve the
Tsushima leopard cat.” They are to be sold at a high price, and it may become a
source of income for a local community. This could make a community even more
lively. In addition, if such a reconversion project is successfully implemented in
Tsushima island, it may lead to a new job creation, and put the brakes on the trend of
“marginal settlements” in local communities in Japan.
The scientific and practical knowledge of the university on natural regeneration is
useful for the creation of high-biodiversity farmland. Scientists in our group will
conduct scientific examination into the applicability of natural regeneration technol-
ogy and the effect of re-cultivation of land.
On the other hand, the manpower for agriculture in Tsushima, which decreased
with aging trend and declining birthrate, might be partly provided by a lot of
Japanese university students who come to Tsushima for research and educational
purposes in the municipal framework of “collaboration between university and local
Picture 6.7 Tsushima

Leopard Cat
society,” and also Korean tourists coming to Tsushima. We thought of providing

Korean tourists with the experience of farmwork in a highly biodiversity ecosystem
as green tourism. Each different tourist might be engaged in separate farmworks as
green tourism during their stays only for a few days. This was also conceived from
the results of our hearing survey on Korean travel agencies. According to one of
the travel agencies, the tourism attraction in Tsushima is scarce, and it is still
confusing where to take Korean tourists in Tsushima. Then, we thought that the
experience of such green tourism might be accepted as one of the sightseeing menu
for the Korean tourist who tends to be attracted by rich nature that does not exist in
Korea.
5.2 Project Start
In the starting phase of this project, there was no specific prospect of local commu-
nity in the island as an object of investigation. Moreover, it is necessary to find a
candidate site which must meet various geographical requirements: it has to be near
the place where (1) it seems to be the habitat of the Tsushima leopard cat, (2) suffi-
cient water can be supplied because we originally assumed the cultivation of rice
(however, rice was finally rejected and we changed to buckwheat later because rice
production will take a great deal of time to care for cultivation and farmland),
(3) there is a local community which agrees to provide an abandoned land for joint
cultivation, (4) Korean visitor can easily access to. For this reason, we have traveled
many times from 2014 and went around the entire island to explore the surrounding
environment and ecosystem while investigating a candidate site (Picture 6.8). In
addition, we talked to the residents of the area where environmental conditions
seemed to be appropriate, and tried to negotiate with them on whether we could
ask them to take charge of actual farmwork to a certain extent (Picture 6.9). We have
looked for a candidate site for two years, but were not able to find out a suitable
research site. Our research group was actually puzzled as to what we should do.
Meanwhile, the temporary municipal official Mr. K, who was playing an impor-
tant role in the early stages of the project “Looking for Island Treasures” mentioned
earlier, suddenly introduced us to a village in late 2016. Because residents of village
A in the northern part of Tsushima were cultivating sweet potato for revitalizing the
local community, he proposed that our research group might be able to start the
project by collaborating with village A. The village A of about 60 households had a
sense of crisis in the declining population and birthrate and voluntarily tried to start a
Picture 6.8 Investigating a

candidate site (2014)
Picture 6.9 Negotiation with local residents on the operation of farmwork (2015)
local community business by cultivating sweet potato. The motivation of the resi-
dents in the village A was very high, and Mr. K had a good relationship with them,
so we thought that it might be possible to start the project if we could ask Mr. K to
take on the responsibility of acting as coordinator.
In addition, we received an invitation from Mr. K to explain the outline of the
project in the village meeting to be held several weeks later. As we were actually at a
loss how to find a research field, there was no reason for refusing the invitation. After
observing a field where the residents of village A were actually making sweet potato
(Picture 6.10), in February 2017 we explained the project in front of the leader and
other 10 members of village A (Picture 6.11). We received various opinions and
comments there. For example, “Is it ok for you to make sweet potato rather than
rice?” “I think buckwheat cultivation will be better considering the trouble-
some work of care,” “how much manpower is necessary for the project implemen-
tation?” “It is necessary to cooperate with a farm corporation for selling the farm
products with added value. What do you think about that plan?” All of these
comments and questions were very important, but we honestly told them that we
did not have any clear answer and that we would rather want to “co-design” the
project together with them and continue to think ahead. We generally got a positive
reaction, not a negative or critical opinion, and finally they told us that it was
possible to offer a farmland for the project. On the other hand, the deadline for
applying for the subsidy in Tsushima City was approaching in May 2017, and there
was not much time left before the end of the research period in IDS3. Therefore, after
discussing with the members of the village A, we decided to start the project there as
early as possible, especially within three months or less.
Picture 6.10 A new candidate site for the project (2016)
Picture 6.11 Presentation on the project to members of the village (2017)
5.3 Project Development
It seemed that the project would start smoothly, but two major changes occurred
here. First, the village leader was replaced at the turn of the fiscal year. The former
leader was active and cooperative in our project, but the new leader was rather
negative about the project. We tried to persuade the new leader several times, but
there was no change in his cautious stance, and frustration began to show in our
communication with him. After that, he proposed to change the course of action
about our project in the community meeting where all households in the village
participated in. The main member of the village used to make a positive comment
before, but most of the residents who participated in the meeting agreed on a
negative policy proposed by the new leader. Frankly speaking, this was an unex-
pected happening for us. The cause of such a change was not certain, but it seemed
that the human relations and the power of the new leader in the village probably
influenced their decision.
Second, as mentioned earlier in the description of the “Looking for Island
Treasures” project, the Tsushima City’s temporary staff Mr. K left the island due
to the expiration of his term. The succeeding new staff, Mr. S who took over the
mission of Mr. K in the “Looking for Island Treasures” project, were not yet in a
good relationship with the residents of the village and not able to cooperate well in
this project, because it has not been long since he came to the island. Owing to the
fact that Mr. K who had played the role of the great coordinator and connected
village A with our university group was gone, the mediator and the connecting post
were lost. The impact of the absence of a coordinator was greater than expected.
Until then, we could not say that we had been able to build a robust one-to-one
relationship of trust with the village A. Finally, it became much difficult for us to
reconcile our opinions with village A.
Both our research group and the members of the village were being beset by
doubts and fears with each other and we began to think that it would be difficult to
start the project. However, a chance of turning the tables in our favor was suddenly
given from village A. In the end of April 2017, we were asked to explain once again
the contents and prospects of the project to all the residents of village A in the
community meeting.
The deadline for the project to start was approaching and we were impatient, but
one of us decided to visit there and explained our project carefully. However, most of
the reactions from the resident were negative. Figure 6.8 is an extract of the
comments received from the resident at that time.
The details and implication of each comment will be described later, but we can
simply conclude that it was not possible to fill the gap of the idea with the residents
of village A. As mentioned in the last comment from the residents, there was an
opinion that they wanted to spend more time talking about the project because they
were still not able to understand and discuss each other sufficiently. At the end of the
meeting, our university group and village A formally concluded that we would
continue the discussion. But our group had no time left. The deadline to start
the project is approaching in May 2017, taking into consideration a necessary period
of time for developing and selling high-value-added products by cultivating some
crops and for verifying the effect on the local community revitalization. Therefore,
we discussed carefully and ultimately decided to give up the start of this project.
I cannot understand why we should bear physical and monetary

burden.
We are all very busy, and cannot cooperate in any farm work.
How long will Kyushu University go on contributing to our village?
How much money will Kyushu University provide for us?
Agricultural damage caused by wild animal such as deer and boar
is much more critical for us than biodiversity, conservation of
Tsushima Leopard Cat. Can you cooperate in the extermination of
harmful wild animals?
We suspect that Kyushu University will make use of our village for
scientific research on the conservation of Tsushima Leopard Cat.
We need much more time for talking with each other. This project
plan is complete surprise for us. We cannot still understand your
explanation.
Fig. 6.8 Comments from village residents at the presentation meeting
5.4 Lesson Learned from the Project “Reconversion

of Abandoned Farmland”
This project ultimately ended in “failure,” but what can be learned from the per-
spective of Future Earth research, and “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” in TD
research? We will summarize from our own seven points of view in short.
First, it is necessary to build a strong trust relationship with the local community
for scientists and universities to “co-design/co-produce” with it on an equal status.
For that purpose, a lot of time and labor for confidence building is essential. In fact,
the project had difficulty in finding an appropriate research site at the stage of
feasibility study, and began negotiations with village A for the first time in the
stage where there was not enough time left. However, due to the lack of time, we
rushed ahead and tried to start the project without being able to communicate
adequately with the residents of village A and building a trust relationship. As a
result, as shown in Fig. 6.8, the residents showed their refusal to devote money and
labor and had the misunderstanding that our university group tried to make use of
village A for another purpose such as scientific research on the preservation of
Tsushima leopard cat. This shows the failure in building “social capital” as the TD
indicator shown in this part. In other words, “co-design/co-production” does not
succeed without bringing about a relationship of trust with the local community,
even if scientific researchers or universities have enough scientific knowledge and
technics for contributing to the sustainability of a local community. We also had
difficulty in “time setting” (TD indicator shown in this part) in that it was not allowed
to have enough time to build trust relationships with the local community.
On the other hand, second, in the co-design phase of this project, the voice of both
trust and doubt was not heard among residents of the village about scientific
knowledge on biodiversity and technology for improving productivity which our
university group could offer to them. The fact that the project was to be based on
scientific knowledge and technology did not seem to have a direct influence on the
judgment of the resident. Of course, in fact, the residents of the local community do
not have the ability to judge the validity of scientific knowledge. Moreover, there is a
possibility that the resident’s understanding and reliance on the scientific knowledge
and technology were not enough and that might have been a chief cause for a
negative reaction by the residents. However, as a result, it is true that the residents
valued building the trust relation, agreeing on the purpose and direction of the
project with our university group rather than questioning the validity of the scientific
knowledge. Therefore, it can be said that the validity and usefulness of scientific
knowledge are not sufficient conditions even if it is a necessary condition, for the
successful achievement of “co-design/co-production” with the local community. On
the other hand, one of our group members thinks that the primary cause of failure in
the project is that we did not show a fully satisfactory scientific basis and data to the
local community, rather than a failure in building a human trust relationship with
each other. However, the problem is that, in case of failure in the collaborative work,
it is so difficult to examine why we failed by, for example, talking with the
other stakeholders after the event. As a sensitive human relationship between our
group member and the residents of the village or among residents of the community
may matter, it is difficult to do an ex post interview survey with the stakeholders.
Third point is that a neutral “coordinator” (TD indicator shown in this part) was
indispensable. The withdrawal of the municipal temporary official staff Mr. K from
the project had a great influence, and we lost the mechanism which coordinated the
disagreement of the opinion between our university group and village A. If scientists
or university members cannot play the role of a neutral coordinator, it would be a
prerequisite for some other entity to play such a role.
Fourth, the “personality” of the stakeholders (TD indicator shown in this part) had
a significant impact on the project because the atmosphere of the residents changed
greatly by the alternation of the leader of village A. This is not something that can be
controlled by ourselves, and we cannot expect what kind of person becomes the head
of the village, so it can be said that it is a problem which depends on luck. However,
such a personal human nature as a standpoint, character, and bias of a particular
stakeholder usually influences the project at any time. Supposing that factor, it
should be noted that the influence by the personality of the specific stakeholder
might have been somewhat eased if it was possible to have enough trust relations
with other stakeholders of residents in the village.
Fifth, there was a critical problem in the way that our university group unilaterally
designed a project, created the plan, and proposed it to the local community and
asked for consent and cooperation. Undoubtedly, we had a stance that we wanted to
discuss with the member of the community the details of the project, the specific
goals, and the process on how to proceed. However, the blueprint for the entire
project was produced only by our university group. We did not fully understand the
needs of the community by doing a detailed hearing investigation of the resident in
village A, even if there was not enough time left for “co-designing” at the early stage
of the project planning while we were suddenly introduced to the village A by
Mr. K. In this sense, it must be said that we failed to meet the requirement of
“sensitivity” to the local community as a TD indicator shown in this part.
Sixth, there was a huge gap in the “framing” and “priority” between the residents
of village A and our university group. We thought that, for the revitalization of the
local community, it was necessary to make the farm products which made high
profits by reconverting abandoned farmland and making use of external manpower.
However, as shown in Fig. 6.8, the residents of village A thought that the problem of
abandoning farmland and unsustainable local community was caused by damages of
increasing harmful wildlife such as deer and boar. In a word, they assigned high
priority to the resolution and reduction of such a harmful wildlife damage rather than
the reconversion of abandoned farmland. Unless the harmful wildlife damage
problem is resolved, the surrounding mountain and field will be left to run wild
and there will be no rat which Tsushima leopard cat usually feeds on.
Seventh, the gap in “framing” and “priority” also leads to the gap in the percep-
tion of “scaling” and “stakeholding” between our university and village A at the
same time. Harmful wildlife damage caused by drastically increasing deer and boar
is extending through the whole area of the island. Because animals move freely in
disregard of human boundaries (borders) such as settlements and communities, it is
not a problem that can be managed only within a particular village. Rather, it is a
problem that must be managed in a larger area by involving the entire scope of the
Tsushima City or at least a neighboring local community. In this sense, we can say
that there was a gap in the perception of “scaling” of the problem between our
university and the residents of the village. There are various different types of scale,
for example, local community scale such as village A, local area scale including
surrounding local communities around Tsushima City, and even larger scale such as
prefectures and Japan nationwide with similar problems. So, it is understood that it
should have been taken as a problem of a “layered scale.” Also, as the perception of
“scaling” is different, of course, the scope of stakeholders corresponding to each
scaling also changes. In other words, it could be said that we consequently failed to
decide the appropriate “stakeholding”.
On the other hand, even if these gaps are recognized, adjusting and correcting
over time may eventually eliminate the gap. It might be usual that there occurs a
“gap” in various respects between scientists and the people who live in the local
community in TD research. What is important there is we should establish a process
of coordinating such gaps, and if this process succeeds, it will lead to a strong trust
relationship. However, in the case of this project, unfortunately it was not possible to
secure sufficient time for “transition process” (TD indicator shown in this part)
which adjusts such various “gaps.”
Finally, as we mentioned repeatedly, the research term of three or five years in
Future Earth research is too short for successfully achieving the “co-design/co-
production” of a sustainable local society with a local community and further to
verify the effect. In particular, unlike “Looking for Island Treasures” project, if
geographical and natural environmental requirements are imposed on the selection
of research sites, it will take a considerable amount of time to pre-examine the
candidate sites. Then, the various social activities (understanding the needs and
priority of the community by hearing investigation, setting an appropriate scaling
and stakeholding, and establishing a trust relationship with the local community)
which are necessary after the investigation and decision of the research site will
obviously be constrained in time.
6 Conclusion
It is difficult to make an assertive conclusion to the question “how can we achieve

the “co-design/co-produce/co-delivery” between science and (local) society toward
a sustainable local community?” shown at the beginning of this chapter only from
the examination of these two cases in Tsushima island. Society is inherently diverse,
complex, and dynamic (Miyauchi 2018). Therefore, it may be impossible to provide
a “manual” or “recipe” for promoting the “co-design/co-production/co-delivery”
between science and society.
However, when comparing the two cases in this chapter from the perspective of
the hypothetical TD indicators presented in this part, there are some important points
in common.
One is that it is important to develop social “sensitivity” and build “social capital”
or trust relationship with a local community. In other words, “co-design/co-produc-
tion/co-delivery” will not be approved only by the validity of the scientific knowl-
edge and technology. Second, the presence of a neutral coordinator is a prerequisite.
If scientists or university cannot play that role, some other stakeholders should take
it. Third, a consensus of opinion on scaling, stakeholding, framing, and priority with
a local community must be reached through sufficient pre-investigation and contin-
uous face-to-face communication. If these “gaps” occur, the process of coordinat-
ing the gap will always be necessary. Finally, the fourth is to properly perform the
“time setting” required for “co-design/co-production.” If the “co-design/co-produc-
tion” process ends halfway when time expires, social responsibility or “accountabil-
ity” (TD indicator shown in this part) of scientists and university to society will
always occur. Then, unless we make ourselves responsible and accountable for that
failure, the trust in science in the society will be lost more and more.
The “co-design/co-production/co-delivery” between science and society would
not be achieved only if scientists and university install scientific knowledge on the
social field. If we are collaborating with any kind of society or community with
various interests, effortful social activities that have nothing to do with scientific
research will be very important. In this sense, the efforts to pursue science–society
collaboration (“co-design/co-production/co-delivery”) will absolutely require scien-
tists and university not only to have academic research skills, but also to have human
and social ability to talk, communicate, and discuss face-to-face with a society.
Acknowledgments We would like to express my deep gratitude to the following organizations

and individuals who provided support for the project: Tsushima Local Government, Kamitsushima
high school, Tsushima Local Promotion Association, Tsushima Commerce and Industry Associa-
tion, MIT Co., FlatHour Co., Toru Nakagami, Yuki Kusunoki, Tomohiro Shirota, Yoshito Takesue,
Hirokazu Kusu, and Tsuyoshi Maeda. This work was also supported by a grant JPMJRX16F1
from the Research Institute of Science and Technology for the Society (RISTEX) of Japan Science
and Technology Agency (JST), and JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant Number
17H02491 and 17K18531.
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Part III
Sustainable Natural Resource
Management: Theory and Practice
Chapter 7
Theoretical Models as a Tool to Derive
Management Strategies for Sustainable
Natural Resource Management
Joung-Hun Lee
Abstract Biodiversity hot spots cannot be preserved successfully unless human

activities such as illegal logging and grazing are properly controlled and cooperation
is achieved among resource users to reduce anthropogenic impacts. We explore
strategies for sustainable use of common resources by studying resource users’
behaviors together with resource dynamics, because ecological and social factors
are known to interact strongly. By showing three systems dealing with the risk of
illegal logging, grazing pressure, and increasing catching effort respectively, we
show the advantages of a mathematical model as a management tool.
Keywords Biodiversity · Natural resource management · Sustainable use · Social-

ecological dynamics · Mathematical modeling · Sustainable use
1 Introduction
Many of the ecosystems are maintained under the strong influence of human
activities. Without proper control of prevalent illegal logging, hunting, and resource
overuse and also with lack of cooperation of local inhabitants, we cannot achieve our
goals: successful conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem management, in other
words, sustainable resource management.
To resolve such problems, an interdisciplinary approach embracing natural sci-
ences and social sciences is required. Natural sciences are for understanding the
biological mechanisms under which natural resource behaves. Social sciences help
us understand how individual resource users behave and make decisions which may
make a tremendously huge impact on the resource and ecosystem.
In addition to the traditional academic fields, we also actively embrace new
approaches to facilitate our understanding on human behaviors or dynamics of
J.-H. Lee (*)

The Institute of Decision Science for a Sustainable Society, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_7
170 J.-H. Lee
interactions among decision-makers. As an example, we would like to introduce

theoretical biology as a tool to enhance such roles toward sustainable society: to test/
derive strategies which promote cooperative behavior for public goods, to couple
social/ecological aspects for comprehensive ecosystem management, and to support
decision makings through testing possible scenarios. In the following sections, we
provide three examples which handle different ecosystems and sustainable use of the
resource in the ecosystem and show how a theoretical modeling approach can
contribute to our shared goal of a sustainable society.
2 Connecting the Understanding of Mechanism for Human

Cooperation to Strategies for Cooperation in Real Setting
As we briefly mentioned in Chap. 1, theoretical biology has been accumulated

understanding on the mechanism of cooperation building or maintenance among
people such as direct/indirect reciprocity, reputation, and punishment. By specifying
the strategies of agents who apply those mechanisms to games, especially the public
or common goods game, theoretical models help us understand in which conditions
cooperative behavior (leading to good results for whole participants) can stay and
defective behavior (exploit cooperative player) can be suppressed. Besides deepen-
ing our understanding on the fundamental questions on human cooperation, the
explorational feature of the theoretical approach can be used for more field-related
tests such as policy making or rule application to the common good managements.
Models for the tests need not be fully realistic; we can have reasonable expectations
about how the idea or thoughts will work by the test.
2.1 Illegal Logging Suppression
As an example, we would like to provide a game theoretical model of a self-

regulating community in which rules are invented to suppress illegal logging in
their communal forest (Lee and Iwasa 2011). Illegal logging is a serious problem for
some countries, such as Cambodia, Indonesia, and Bolivia. Indicative estimates of
illegal logging even exceed 80% (Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 2005;
European Forest Institute 2005), and illegal logging occurs widely and persistently,
at both state and community levels (World Bank Group 2006). In this model, we
focus on the community-level illegal logging considering these countries usually
suffer from the lack of administrative power so that if the community can regulate
autonomously, it would be more effective prevention for smaller-scale illegal
logging.
Illegal logging is a typical example of a crisis of management of a common good
threatened by the tragedy of the commons. Each individual resource user (tree
7 Theoretical Models as a Tool to Derive Management Strategies for Sustainable Nat. . . 171
harvester) gains from harvesting more trees or resources from the forest than other
users. Thus, preventing the overuse of the forest requires establishing standards for
sustainable level of harvesting. The standard requires the tasks of monitoring and
sanctioning harvesters who break rules. However, those tasks cannot be always
implemented by community members, so if the tasks are delegated to the third party
who is relatively free from social pressure inside the community, corruption may
arise. As corruption is known to be positively correlated with illegal logging in many
places around the world (Seneca Creek Associates and Wood Resources Interna-
tional 2004), we believe that the model could give us important insights on how to
reign corruption and eventually illegal logging.
2.2 Model
To reflect the autonomous community management setting, we consider a situation

in which a group of harvesters establish a rule to restrain the harvesting amount.
Hired enforcers monitor the harvesters who comply to the rule and fine defectors
who harvest trees excessively. We assume that rule enforcers are paid by the
harvesters, rather than being funded through an external source or organization. To
investigate whether this rule enforcement system can emerge as a social institution in
the modeled community, we use replicator dynamics describing social learning
occurring through the imitation of successful role models (e.g., Sigmund 2010).
We specify three types of tree harvesters and two types of hired enforcers
involved in this forest management: conditional cooperator, committing defector,
non-committing defector, corrupt enforcer, and honest enforcer. A harvester is
assumed to be a member of the community and free to choose either to hire an
enforcer or not. A rule complier to the harvest amount is called a conditional
cooperator who hires an enforcer (pay for hired enforcer). The conditional cooper-
ator won’t cooperate with the player who doesn’t pay for the enforcement system. A
committing defector is one that does not comply to the harvest rule but pay for the
hired enforcer to exploit conditional cooperator. This type of harvester can be
successful when he meets corrupt enforcers by bribing them otherwise punished
harshly by an honest enforcer. By being hired by a pair of harvesters given that both
are committing harvesters, enforcers may earn their salary. By setting the parameters
such as benefit from cooperative behavior (b), cost of the cooperation (c), salary of
hired enforcer (s), bribery from excessively harvesting defector to corrupt enforcer
(B), and punishment to the defector (A), we can summarize the payoff for each type
of player of the game as shown in Table 7.1. On this basis, we investigate conditions
sustaining cooperative behaviors of harvesters and suppressing corrupt enforcers.
172 J.-H. Lee
Table 7.1 Payoffs for harvesters and enforcers

Conditional Committing Non-committing
cooperator defector defector
a. Payoffs for harvesters accompanied by an honest enforcer
Conditional cooperator b-c-s -c-s 0
Committing defector b-s-A -s-A 0
Non-committing 0 0 0
defector
b. Payoffs for harvesters accompanied by a corrupt enforcer
Conditional cooperator b-c-s -c-s 0
Committing defector b-s-B -s-B 0
defector
c. Payoffs for an honest enforcer
Conditional cooperator 2s 2s 0
Committing defector 2s 2s 0
defector
d. Payoffs for a corrupt enforcer
Conditional cooperator 2s 2s+B 0
Committing defector 2s+B 2s+2B 0
defector
2.3 Findings
With the help of replicator dynamics based on the payoff (Table 7.1), we find the
system may be faced with very different outcomes: full of cooperators leading to a
very well-managed forest or full of illegal loggers leading to a devastated communal
forest. It depends on whether the system retains a critical fraction of honest enforcers
in the first beginning. With the fraction of honest enforcers higher than the critical
fraction, the communal forest can be sustainably managed. If not, even with almost
all cooperative harvesters, the forest finally ends up with deforestation by illegal
loggers. This result implies that it is most important to ensure the quality of enforcers
and also keep the quality by a sound educational system. Figure 7.1 shows how
important the critical fraction is to maintain the forest sustainable. If the critical
fraction of honest enforcers is larger, then the fraction of undesirable resultant
outcomes is increased.
We also find that the critical fraction is denoted by the model parameters as a
formula, (c-B)/(A-B). This formula says that with the same level of bribe (B) if the
punishment to rule breaker (A) is larger or the cost of cooperative behavior (c) is
small, the system requires smaller fraction of honest enforcers in the beginning than
the opposite cases.
Fig. 7.1 Importance of an initial fraction of honest enforcers. A total of 100 different initial
conditions consisting of different fractions of harvesters and enforcers are tested. Each condition
converges to either cooperative harvesting or devastating harvesting. Larger critical fraction of
honest enforcers means smaller cooperative harvesting in that any initial condition less that the
fraction goes to the defective harvesting. The figure is adapted from Lee et al. (2015b)
3 Incorporating Social and Ecological Knowledge: Coupled

Dynamics for Sustainable Resource Management
Hot spots or areas worthy of preservation identified by ecologists and evolutionary

biologists cannot be properly preserved without proper management of anthropo-
genic impacts. Needless to say, biodiversity will be in danger under the presence of
prevalent overuse of resources and lack of managing strategy in achieving the
cooperation of local inhabitants. In this respect, it is important to incorporate the
way to manage these aspects and to plug it into the ecosystem management that
should be also based on ecology too. This is a point where we need the concept of
social-ecological systems or human-environmental systems for successful conser-
vation. Here we provide an example of the coupled dynamics of social-ecological
systems (Lee et al. 2015b).
3.1 Mongolian Rangeland Management
The Mongolian rangeland is one of the terrestrial ecosystems affected by intensive

human activities, cattle grazing. Precipitation here fluctuates greatly year to year,
herders should cope with environmental uncertainty caused by such fluctuation
(Smith et al. 2007). Herders, who are especially based on the southern part of
Mongolia and have limited access to the northern area due to the traveling cost
174 J.-H. Lee
suffer from environmental uncertainty than herders in the northern area with more
abundant, stable precipitation. During drought, the rangeland grasses disappear
except in small areas called “key resource,” and those provide refuge and forage
for the herders and their animals in the very dry season (Kakinuma et al. 2013). Thus
it is essential to keep key resource areas and to understand how it could be
maintained for the herders in southern herders.
3.2 Model
To understand how herders’ choice interacts with plant dynamics in key resource
areas, we study the coupled dynamics of grasses of key resource areas and herders
who choose between staying at the same site and moving to an alternative rangeland
during drought. With strong grazing pressure, grass biomass in the focal rangeland is
decreased, and then more herders move to an alternative rangeland rather than
staying in the focal rangeland. Thus, plant biomass is influenced by its intrinsic
growth rate, caring capacity, and grazing pressure from the animals in the site
(Fig. 7.2).
Herders are assumed to choose the foraging site giving the higher payoff. We
assume that the payoff in the southern area (Ustay) depends on the level of grass
biomass (consumed by animals) and the payoff in the northern area (Umove) is
constant reflecting that it has a more stable environment. Herders choose to either
stay or move considering each payoff and are assumed to do it in accordance with
stochastic best-response dynamics. Besides stochastic best-response dynamics, we
incorporate the aspect of inertia or delay of human decision-making in herder’s
choice which reflects that people could maintain their current choice with many
Probability to change the strategy
1.0
β = 2.0
β = 0.5
0.8
β = 0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
–10 –5 0 5 10
Differential utility Umove- Ustay
Fig. 7.2 Stochastic best-response dynamics. Herders compare the payoff difference of two options
(stay/move). Herders (people) prefer options with higher payoff, but not always, and immediately
change their current choice because of the positive margin. Their switch can be smooth and
sometimes very slow depending on the sensitivity to the difference (compare three different beta
values)
reasons, such as lack/distrust of new information (For more detailed model formu-
lation, see Lee et al. 2015a).
3.3 Findings
We find that when the social dynamics is coupled with the grass biomass dynamics,
the system generates typical nonlinear behaviors, such as bistability displaying a
strong dependence on the initial condition or perpetual large-amplitude fluctuation.
Fluctuation means plant biomass and herders in the southern area are not stabilized
and continuously changing.
The fact that the system can oscillate has two interesting implications. First,
traditionally such fluctuation is regarded as a result derived from environmental
change, such as precipitation. However, our model shows that without the well-
known environmental factors, the coupling of ecological dynamics and herders’
choice dynamics can make such fluctuation (Fig. 7.3).
Second, the fluctuating system may cause more hardship to herders who cannot
plan their lives under stable economic conditions, especially with large amplitude.
By studying the model, we find how quickly people respond to the expected utility
which is one key factor in controlling the fluctuation. As they make a quick decision
(more herders decide to stay or move depending on their expectation about the utility
from their choice rather than just keeping their current choice), the fluctuation may
be dampened (see Fig. 7.4). If we find limiting factors to create such delay, the
fluctuation could be prevented. Our model implies that limiting factors might be the
lack of accurate information on plant conditions of the focal area and alternative
area, unaffordable traveling cost to the northern area, and potential conflicts between
herders in the northern area and herders from the southern area.
Fig. 7.3 Coupled social

and ecological dynamics
fluctuation. The x-axis is the
level of plant biomass. The
y-axis is the fraction of
herders who stay in the
southern area. p–F phase
plane. The equilibrium is
unstable, and all trajectories
converge to a limit cycle
showing a perpetual
oscillation . The figure is
adapted from Lee et al.
(2015a)
176 J.-H. Lee
140
120
100
Plant biomass F
80
60
40
20
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
fraction to consider to change strategy s
Fig. 7.4 Plant biomass fluctuation depending on the fraction of herders who consider changing
their strategy depending on the utility difference between two options. A larger fraction means a
larger fraction of herders adjust their strategy to move by comparing utilities
4 Testing Influences of New Stakeholders in Resource Use
Membership is an important factor to sustain stewardship of people over the resource

in their use. With the existence of membership, the long-term use of the resource is
guaranteed, and also mechanisms to enhance cooperation such as reputation, reci-
procity, and social pressure might work well among the members. Despite the
advantages, the system may face challenges to disturb it such as introducing a new
stakeholder. Often the possible disturbance causes conflicts among people who have
different opinions over the challenges. In such cases, a theoretical approach can play
a role as a decision support tool by clarifying questions to be asked, stakes of each
stakeholder, change of benefit distribution, impact to the ecosystem (level of focal
resource), etc. The following example shows how we use a theoretical model as the
decision support tool for the challenge.
4.1 Tourists and Traditional Divers in a Common Fishing

Ground
The coastal area of Jeju island in South Korea has been utilized only by traditional
divers. As the number of traditional divers decreased and they get aged, the local
government has been thinking of introducing tourists into the coastal area called
common fishing ground for an additional income source for the villagers in the
island. Such policy may change resource dynamics and benefit distribution through
introducing new stakeholders, tourists, into the current system consisting of mainly
traditional divers and marine resources. Especially when it is considered that tradi-
tional divers are known to be concerned about the environment, new stakeholders,
for example, tourists, may affect the environment more than the traditional divers.
4.2 Model
We describe the common fishing ground system by marine resource population

dynamics, tourists introduced into the fishing ground, and total benefit for the fishing
association consisting of benefits from tourists and traditional divers’ marine
resource catch. As the goal of tourism introduction to the fishing ground is to
increase the income for fishing villages, it is required to get benefits from tourists’
visits to the fishing ground. In the model, we assume that the entrance fee is collected
from tourists who might respond to the level of the fee as well as the abundance of
marine products they can access. Because tourists can also catch the resource, now
the traditional divers compete with tourists in the fishing ground for the resource
such as octopus, seashells, etc. The key is to choose to optimize the entrance fee
level. If the fee is too high, tourists might not visit the fishing ground. If it is too low,
tourists might catch more resources to the extent that the traditional divers’ catch is
decreased significantly. The fishing association consisting of traditional divers,
fishermen in fishing villages, and retired traditional divers is assumed to have the
right to choose the fee level for the model. It reflects the fact that it has the legal right
to manage the fishing ground although traditional divers utilize it (for more detailed
formulation, see Lee and Iwasa 2011).
4.3 Findings
Decisions made regarding tourism derived from the model are shown to affect the
claimed resource depletion of the Jeju island fishing ground. The fishing association
can maximize its economic benefit by using the model, which might be quite
plausible. However, the resource level may be apart from the sustainable level.
The fishing association may seek a short-term benefit to maximize their own profit
at the expense of resource sustainability more than traditional divers whose concerns
are more about the long-term use of the resource (Ostrom 1990).
The adequacy of the optimal choice, therefore, should be discussed in light of
values other than the economic benefits to the fishing village. The result denotes the
potential conflict caused by tourists’ resource use in competition with the traditional
divers (Fig. 7.5). This result suggests that the stakeholders among the fishing
association should come to some agreement before introducing tourists. The fact
that tourism can negatively affect resources more than traditional diving requires
thinking of an alternative tourism in accord with it such as a diver training program.
178 J.-H. Lee
Fig. 7.5 Potential conflict

between traditional divers
and other members of the
fishing association. The
optimal entrance fee
maximizing the total benefit
for the fishing association is
lower than the fee level
which maximizes the benefit
from divers’ catch. The
figure is adapted from Lee
and Iwasa (2011)
It can be an opportunity to recruit new divers as well as to provide interesting

experience to tourists.
5 Conclusion
Through the theoretical study of ecosystem management including rule making,

coupled social-ecological dynamics, and policy making, we can combine our
knowledge on ecological and social sciences in a manner useful for management.
We discovered several unexpected behaviors of the social-ecological dynamics, such
as a big oscillation in herder-grass systems, abrupt switches between deforestation
and forestation, or the potential conflicts among stakeholders. With the help of the
model, key factors to control the destruction of the ecosystem service can be
identified, and then policy implication is provided.
For its wider use, in the near future, the importance of accumulating and
extending knowledge to incorporate social sciences to demonstrate people’s behav-
ior into the robust management of common goods may be greatly emphasized. Then
social-ecological models strengthened by the knowledge can deal with large-scaled,
complicated management challenges with multiple stakeholders over our common
resources.
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ment Network, World Bank, Washington, DC
Chapter 8
Environmental Concerns of the Pulp
and Paper Industry: Focusing on Household
and Sanitary Paper Products
Kun Qian
Abstract The category of household and sanitary products is the most important
category in the paper industry, because it is related to people’s daily lives all around
the world. This category is seeing a rapid increase in consumption, while consump-
tion in other categories, such as printing or writing paper, is presently declining.
China is the largest manufacturer, as well as the largest consumer of household and
sanitary paper. Nowadays, environmental consciousness and concerns are rising in
China and have started to influence customers’ behavior in selecting and using paper
products. In the present study, surveys were conducted of the paper industry, the
retail market for paper, and end consumers of paper. The relationship between new
challenges of the paper industry and consumers’ environmental concerns has been
investigated and reported.
Keywords Customer behavior · Paper consumption · Environmental

consciousness · Plantation · Environmental issue
1 Introduction
The pulp and paper industry is one of the industries that have resulted in serious
environmental impacts all over the world and is facing increasing challenges in terms
of environmental regulations (Young and Akhtar 1998). According to the classifi-
cation of forest products, paper products (paper and paperboard) are mainly com-
posed of four types (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 1982):
newsprint, other printing and writing paper, household and sanitary paper, and
wrapping and packaging paper. The newspaper is defined as an uncoated paper
used for newspaper printings. Other printing and writing paper include paper used
for other types of printings (e.g., books, magazines, photographs, or other
K. Qian (*)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_8
182 K. Qian
commercial printings) and office use (e.g., copy paper, writing paper). Household
and sanitary paper includes paper used in daily life, such as tissues, napkins, paper
towels, and toilet paper. Wrapping and packaging paper includes those types of
paper mainly used for packaging, such as liner board, craft paper, folding boxboard,
and paperboard. The production, as well as the marketing of these four types of
paper, is highly dependent on the economic and technological conditions in the
global marketplace. Production of paper for newsprint sharply decreased after the
2008 financial crisis. The market for other print and writing paper is now threatened
by the growth of digital information and the movement towards paperless offices.
Alternatively, household and sanitary paper represents an irreplaceable use of paper,
and consumption is still rapidly increasing, especially in some developing coun-
tries (Yano Research Institute 2016). The remarkable growth of e-commerce has also
provided opportunities for the marketing of wrapping and packaging paper (Ministry
of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan 2016). In this study, household and
sanitary paper (hereinafter referred to as “household paper”) was selected as the
target, because it is most dependent on the personal consumer, compared with other
types of paper mainly used for industrial or business purposes, and it is still growing.
China is a big market for the pulp and paper industry, not only for paper
production but also for its consumption. In 2009, China overtook the United States
as the top producer, as well as the top consumer, of paper products in the world
(China Paper Association 2018). In the total market for household paper, China
achieved an average growth of 5.5% from 2011 to 2014 and reached 12 billion USD
in 2014 (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan 2016). However, the
consumption of household paper per capita/year was only 4.7 kg, somewhat lower
than the consumption (by 1/3 to 1/5) in developed countries (Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry of Japan 2016). With future economic growth in China, it is
expected that consumption of household paper will also increase. A prospective
analysis (RISI Analytics 2014) showed that from 2000 to 2012, China was respon-
sible for one third of the total global growth of tissue consumption (10.5 million tons,
874,000 tons/year) and from 2012 to 2022, China will be responsible for 41% of the
expected growth of global tissue consumption (15 million tons). Tissue paper can be
considered as a typical example of the whole household paper industry. The devel-
opment of sanitary conditions and consciousness in China increases demand and
consequently supply of household paper. Free toilet paper is increasingly available
in public toilets utilizing advanced IoT technologies, which presents a big business
opportunity for distributing free toilet paper (Fig. 8.1). On the other hand, environ-
mental consciousness, especially awareness of specific environmental issues, is
rising in the Chinese society, because of the noticeable deterioration of air quality
in recent years, including the heavy smog in major Chinese cities such as Beijing and
Shanghai (Zhao et al. 2016).
Considering the possible environmental impact caused by paper production,
increased environmental consciousness may influence or change the behavior of
customers in selecting and consuming household paper. In China, tissue and toilet
paper products made from bamboo or straw fibers, instead of wood pulp, appeared in
the market in 2010 (Ren et al. 2019). The unique selling proposition (USP) of those
8 Environmental Concerns of the Pulp and Paper Industry: Focusing on Household. . . 183
Fig. 8.1 Electronic toilet paper distributor in a public washroom in rest area of G2 Beijing-
Shanghai Expressway. Use SNS applications and QR code to get free toilet paper
non-wood-based products is their reduced environmental impact from two aspects.

First, most wood pulp was produced from the vast plantations in Southeast Asia,
where almost all of the old-growth forests have been felled and converted to
commercial plantations. This destruction has resulted in serious damage to local
ecological systems, eliminating the natural biodiversity. Organisms that lived in the
old-growth forests cannot survive in the environment of single species tree planta-
tions. This is the most critical reason why people and environmental organizations
oppose to commercial plantations. Bamboo- or straw-based paper products are not
derived from wood pulp; thus, they are more environmentally friendly because they
do not require the conversion of old-growth forests to plantations. Second, in
northern China, wheat is a staple crop. Burning wheat straw in late autumn is
considered to be an important contributor to air pollution, especially to the produc-
tion of smog in winter (Qu et al. 2012). Producers of straw-based household paper
appealed to the market by claiming that recycling straw to produce paper can reduce
burning it and accordingly, decrease the possible air pollution resulting from straw
burning. Both selling propositions are quite reasonable and have brought success
and expansion to the market for these paper products made from alternative
materials.
Changes to the concentration ratio (CR) of household paper production corrob-
orates the growth of the non-wood-based household paper market. Non-wood-based
production is preferred by medium-sized manufacturers, because bamboo or straw
materials can be procured domestically. The risk and cost of procurement are much
lower than those associated with importing wood-based materials from Southeast
Asia. Compared with the other three types of paper products, the CR of household
184 K. Qian
paper production declined rapidly after 2010. Annual reports from the China Paper
Association (2018) showed that the CR4 before 2010 was consistently above 47%
and sharply dropped to 27.7% in 2015. Analysis of a report released by Guolian
Securities (2019) showed that the top four manufacturers of household paper in
China are Gold HongYe Paper (market share 9.7%), Hengan International (8.5%),
Vinda International (8.2%), and C&S Paper (4.2%). The CR4 of these companies
was 28.2% in 2017. The data suggest that a great number of new manufacturers
joined the household paper market in the first 5 years of the 2010 decade.
The rise of non-wood-based household paper definitely threatens the traditional
manufacturers using wood pulp. In 2017, the total consumption of pulp in China was
101 million tons. Sixty-three percent of the pulp was recycled (21% imported, 42%
domestic), 31% was wood pulp (21% imported, 10% domestic), and 6% was
non-wood pulp (all domestic, United Credit Ratings 2018). Six percent is not a
significant percentage, but most of the non-wood pulp was used to produce house-
hold paper, and household paper production was just 8.6% of all paper production in
2017. This means, as a material for household paper production, non-wood pulp is
playing an important role in China. Not only the end manufacturers but also the
whole supply chain of imported wood pulp (21 million tons in 2017, 68% of the
wood pulp consumption) will be influenced. Since 2009, the international trade price
of wood pulp has continued to rise, putting pressure on paper manufacturers to
improve cost control and supply chain management (Sinolink Securities 2018).
Non-wood pulps provide an opportune alternative to these companies. China
imports wood pulp mainly from Canada (23%), Brazil (19%), Indonesia (12%),
Chile (10%), and the United States (9%). The biggest household paper company,
Gold HongYe Paper, is a member of the Asia Pulp & Paper Group (APP), based in
Indonesia. Even though Indonesia is not the largest supplier of wood pulp for China,
imported wood pulp from Indonesia is more likely to be used for household paper
production. This means the rise of non-wood-based household paper production in
China will negatively impact the plantation industry in Indonesia.
As mentioned above, commercial plantations in Southeast Asia have been criti-
cized by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), such as the World Wildlife Fund
(WWF), because of the plantations’ lack of environmental protections and preva-
lence of social conflicts (Szulecka et al. 2016). Forest fires and the attendant haze
have caused more environmental issues (Tacconi 2016). As a result, rising environ-
mental concerns of consumers in China are changing their selection of household
paper products. The purpose of this study is to clarify the changing situation, as well
as to identify the trends affecting the household paper market in China.
2 Methods
In this study, I conducted surveys of three different aspects of the household and
sanitary paper industry: manufacturers, markets, and consumers. APP was selected
to represent manufacturers, because it is the largest household paper vendor in China
and has the strongest relationship with the Southeast Asian plantations. As to the
surveys of markets and consumers, data were obtained from several economically
developed regions in China, where the consumption of household paper is greater
than in other regions. In total, 16 surveys (3 to Indonesia and 13 to China) were
conducted from 2015 to 2019.
There are a variety of products in the category of household and sanitary paper,
such as box tissues, pocket tissues, toilet paper, table napkins, kitchen paper, wet
tissues, sanitary napkins, disposable diapers, etc. However, bamboo or straw pulp is
used mostly to produce box tissues, pocket tissues, and toilet paper. Thus, I selected
these three types of paper products to be the target of the surveys. Surveys 1 and
3 were conducted by using the method of an unstructured interview.
2.1 Survey 1: Visit and Interview APP Paper Mills
As the first step of the research, the manufacture of household paper in China was
explored at each point of its supply chain. I visited an APP plantation, an R&D
center, and one of its largest pulp and paper mills (Perawang Mill in Sumatra,
Indonesia), from 2015 to early 2016, as pilot surveys.
The main surveys were conducted in 2016 and 2017, by visiting six APP member
companies, as well as their mills. This included the headquarters of Gold HongYe
Paper (GHY), the largest household paper manufacturer in China, located in Jiangsu,
Shandong, and Guangdong Provinces of China. As part of the surveys, I interviewed
15 staff members in administrative positions at different mills and departments.
Details of the interview sites and informants are listed in Table 8.1.
2.2 Survey 2: Market Survey of Household Paper Products
To grasp the market situation of household paper products, especially the non-wood-
based ones, market surveys were conducted from late 2016 to 2017. Twenty-five end
retail markets in seven cities (Changzhou in Jiangsu Province, Shenzhen and
Qingyuan in Guangdong Province, Langfang in Hebei Province, Qingdao in Shan-
dong Province, Shanghai, Beijing) were included. Most urban citizens in China tend
to buy household paper products in the major supermarkets in their cities; thus, this
survey focused on the major supermarkets in the seven cities. To investigate the
relationship between market share of non-wood-based, or the so-called eco-friendly
paper products, and the amount of air pollution in an area, the survey sites were
selected from both northern and southern parts of China. Southern China’s staple
crop is rice, so burning straw is not a contributor to air pollution there. The amount of
wood-based box tissues, pocket tissues, and toilet paper products, as well as that of
non-wood-based products, was sampled in each end market. Details of the end
markets surveyed are shown in Table 8.2, with the sampled data.
186 K. Qian
Table 8.1 Detailed information on interview sites and informants for survey 1
Place (city,
Time province) Company and mill Informant (department)
November– Suzhou, Gold HongYe (GHY) Paper IF1, publicity
December 2016 Jiangsu headquarter mill IF2, finished good expert
(region representative)
IF3, finished good expert
(Asia-Pacific department)
IF4, production line
November– Suzhou, Gold Huasheng (GHS) IF5, research and development
December 2016 Jiangsu Paper headquarter mill IF6, environment and
sustainability
IF7, marketing and sales
November– Zhenjiang, Gold East Paper IF8, publicity
December 2016 Jiangsu headquarter mill IF9, global procurement
IF10, environment
management
February 2017 Qingyuan, Branch mills of GHY and IF11, supply chain
Guangdong GHS management
IF12, global procurement
IF13, production line
March 2017 Qingdao, Branch mills of GHY and IF14, publicity
Shandong GHS IF15, supply chain
management
2.3 Survey 3: Interview with End Consumers
Finally, in 2018 and 2019, I interviewed university students as end consumers from
six universities in Jiangsu, Shandong, Beijing, and Shanghai. Most university
students in China live in dormitories on the campus. They are ideal customers who
mainly consume box tissues, pocket tissues, and toilet paper but rarely use other
types of household paper products. Also, university students are more concerned
about the environment and sustainability and have higher than average social
consciousness. They are also more sensitive to new technologies and products in
the market.
Thirty-one students (17 females and 14 males; mean age ¼ 21.3 years; SD ¼
1.3 years) were interviewed for the survey. All of them lived in the dormitories
provided by their universities. They are born in 16 provinces around
China. Expedited ethical approval for this survey was obtained from the Ethics
Committee for Psychological Studies at the Institute of Decision Science for a
Sustainable Society, Kyushu University (No. 2018/1-4). The interview method
used in this study were conducted in accordance with the relevant guidelines of
the ethics committee.
Table 8.2 Results of the market survey. Toilet paper and tissue paper (not including wet tissues) are sampled in this survey
District/ Market Household paper Non-wood-based household
Time Area Province City town (initial) products products (%)
November South Jiangsu Changzhou Tianning T 17 3 (17.6)
2016
November South Jiangsu Changzhou Tianning R 18 3 (16.7)
2016
November South Jiangsu Changzhou Xinbei S 12 2 (16.7)
2016
November South Guangdong Shenzhen Longhua R 25 2 (8)
2016
November South Guangdong Shenzhen Futian S 17 2 (11.8)
2016
November South Shanghai Shanghai Zhabei R 17 4 (23.5)
2016
November South Shanghai Shanghai Putuo W 15 4 (26.7)
2016
February 2017 South Guangdong Qingyuan Qingcheng R 22 1 (4.5)
February 2017 South Guangdong Shenzhen Nanshan C 27 3 (11.1)
March 2017 North Shandong Qingdao Shinan C 19 6 (31.6)
March 2017 North Shandong Qingdao Shibei W 17 5 (29.4)
March 2017 North Shandong Qingdao Jiaozhou R 15 3 (20)
March 2017 North Shandong Qingdao Jiaozhou L 16 4 (25)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Chaoyang W 19 4 (21.1)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Chaoyang R 21 5 (23.8)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Haidian C 20 5 (25)
8 Environmental Concerns of the Pulp and Paper Industry: Focusing on Household. . .
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Haidian W 19 4 (21.1)

October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Fengtai C 17 5 (29.4)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Tongzhou C 14 4 (28.6)
187
(continued)
188
District/ Market Household paper Non-wood-based household

Time Area Province City town (initial) products products (%)
October 2017 North Hebei Langfang Yanjiao W 16 3 (18.8)
October 2017 North Hebei Langfang Yanjiao A 20 4 (20)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Xicheng W 20 4 (20)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Xicheng C 21 5 (23.8)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Dongcheng C 21 5 (23.8)
October 2017 North Beijing Beijing Dongcheng L 18 4 (22.2)
K. Qian
3 Results
3.1 Challenges for Major Paper Manufacturers in China
From the interviews of APP staff members in various positions and departments,
some of the pressures and challenges for APP, as well as all the major paper
manufacturers that are its members, were revealed.
The first pressure is from the business itself. Different from other major paper
producing or consuming countries like the United States, Indonesia, Canada, or
Brazil, the paper industry of China is much more reliant on the import of materials.
China is the largest importer of wood pulp in the world. In 2015, China imported
16.5 million tons of pulp, more than the total of the second to the fifth largest
importing countries (the United States, Germany, Italy, and South Korea). High
reliance on material imports brings more cost, as well as risk, to the Chinese paper
industry. Comparing two major subsidiary companies of APP, Perawang Mill in
Indonesia is surrounded by thousands of hectares of plantation, which means that
the cost of material distribution has never been a problem. However, GHY Mill in
China must pay for the high cost of ocean transportation to get the same materials
and has to face the rapid change of prices in the international pulp trade. This issue
leads to a difficult situation in China, i.e., that the cost of raw materials is extremely
high (approximately 65–80% of the total cost in paper manufacturing). Mass
production has been considered the best way to mitigate high costs; however, the
CR of the major manufacturers is becoming lower and lower in the current decade.
Increasingly, mid-sized paper mills, including those who use bamboo or straw
fibers instead of wood pulp to control cost, are appearing and becoming part of the
household paper market. This directly influences and restrains the production of
major manufacturers. In 2017, GHY operated at only 67.4% of capacity. Excess
capacity gradually becomes a serious issue for major household paper
manufacturers.
The second pressure is from the environmental policies in China, which are
getting increasingly stringent during the current decade. In 2017 alone, five
regulatory schemes on environmental conservation and emission control were
revised or newly released to regulate the paper industry. To comply with the new
policies, manufacturers have to change some of their suppliers, update their
equipment, adjust their production processes, or even selectively shut down
some old production lines, and all of these actions result in additional costs.
From the beginning of 2010, the Chinese government has taken serious and drastic
measures to improve the environmental situation in China. As one of the industries
most highly impacting the environment and sustainability, paper companies are
always the first target. Even though this additional cost is a big concern for GHY,
all informants declared that concern for the environment and sustainability is
190 K. Qian
their responsibility. They support the company’s huge investment to improve and
make their production facilities more eco-friendly and the related actions to
comply with regulatory requirements. That is why GHY and the other APP
member mills can run stably in the strictest areas of environmental monitoring in
China, and why WWF China has not criticized APP China as seriously as compa-
nies in Indonesia.
Informants also mentioned the regional differences in the threats to APP’s
businesses, due to economic status and customer behaviors. Innovative,
eco-friendly products, such as bamboo- or straw-based paper, are much more
appealing in a region where air pollution is more serious. This was explored in
more detail in the second survey.
3.2 Difference in Market Penetration of Eco-friendly

Household Paper Products in North and South China
The results of the market survey are shown in Table 8.2. The number of household
paper products, as well as that of non-wood-based products, was determined in each
supermarket included in the survey. The percentage of non-wood-based products
was calculated. In South China, the average percentage across nine markets was
15.18%. However, in North China, the average percentage across 16 markets was
23.98%. A two-tailed t-test showed that the percentage of non-wood-based products
was significantly higher in North China markets than in South markets (t(23) ¼
4.00, p < .001, Cohen's d ¼ 1.67). These results support the opinion of mill
workers during survey 1, that non-wood-based products are more popular in North
China.
Non-wood-based products are normally more expensive, but less compatible than
wood-based ones (Fig. 8.2). Buying non-wood-based products means paying more
money to get products that will be used every day, but may not be comfortable to
use. It seems difficult to understand this behavior, because consumers normally
prefer better and cheaper products. One possible reason that customers in North
China welcome and are willing to pay more for the so-called eco-friendly products is
that they suffer more from air pollution than southern people. In winter, people in
many northern cities of China must endure heavy smog resulting from air pollution.
The selling proposition of non-wood-based products is consistent with the actual
experience of consumers.
Non-wood-based products in the southern market are mainly made from bamboo,
because as raw material, straw cannot be steadily supplied to South China. However,
even though bamboo paper is irrelevant to reducing air pollution, it is considered to
be an eco-friendly product and has won big support in the market. It implies that
traditional pulp and paper manufacturing based on plantation trees is considered to
Fig. 8.2 Non-wood-based tissues (left) and wood-based tissues (right) on sale in a supermarket in
Qingyuan, Guangdong Province (Feb. 2017). Non-wood products were much more expensive
be a less eco-friendly industry and that any innovation to reduce the environmental
impact of this industry is welcomed by the end consumers.
3.3 University Students Value Environment More When

Selecting Household Paper Products
All student interviewees indicated that they buy toilet paper and tissue paper in their
daily lives. When asked to select factors influencing their purchasing decisions for
household paper, 32.2% of them said they consider price as the highest priority,
possibly because as students, their disposable income is limited. Quality was named
as a priority by 25.8%, while 19.4% selected comfort, and 16.1% selected environ-
mental concerns as the highest influence on their purchase. Obviously, university
students do not consider environmental concern as their highest priority when they
buy household paper, but environmental concern is the only factor that was included
in the top three by all students.
In Beijing and Shandong, 13 students out of 16 reported that they have tried
tissues or toilet paper made from straw, due to a consideration for reducing air
192 K. Qian
pollution. Eight of them kept using those products, even though all of them admit
that straw paper is expensive and not as comfortable as normal paper. Straw products
could hardly be found in Jiangsu and Shanghai, but bamboo products had more share
there than in the northern regions. Ten in fifteen students told that they had
consumed bamboo products, and six were still using them. Selecting bamboo
products was also based on their consciousness of the environment. All students
had a definite opinion that paper production brings serious impacts to the environ-
ment, through energy consumption, water consumption, gas and water emissions,
and deforestation.
All students complained about smog pollution, but most of them admitted that air
pollution has been improved year by year, especially in Beijing. They know that
smog is the result of a variety of factors and that straw burning is just one of them,
and not the most critical. Yet, they still prefer to purchase eco-friendly paper
products that are affordable. This behavior implies their deep consciousness and
concerns for the environment and sustainability.
4 Discussion
The present research focused on the marketing and production of household paper
products in China; revealed the situation, trends, and challenges in the household
paper industry in China; and investigated how the consciousness and concerns of
end consumers influence their behavior for selecting and using paper products.
My awareness of issues addressed in this research actually began with my first
visit to APP’s plantation in Sumatra. After inspecting the boundless plantation, I was
told about the environmental issues, social issues, difficult business situations, and
the criticisms from NGOs and the academic world. However, as the global CO2
emission issue is being addressed in China, it is clear that the responsibility lies not
only with the countries that produce CO2 but also with the countries that consume
the products from those CO2-emitting processes. As to the issue of plantations in
Indonesia, a large quantity of the wood pulp is exported to China and other countries.
In China, the market for household paper produced by using pulp imported from
Indonesia is threatened by the change of consumers’ environmental concerns. This
change is due in large part to the prevalence of air pollution and the desire to improve
air quality. As shown in Fig. 8.3, the issues occurring on Indonesian plantations are
indirectly, but absolutely related to the economic restructuring taking place in China.
To solve the plantation issues in Indonesia, co-design and co-production among
multiple stakeholders in Indonesia, as well as in China, are essential.
Surveys and inspections of administrative offices, plantations, and mills created a
clear image of the supply chain in the paper industry. Viewing the process in four
steps, plantation (produce wood) ! pulp mills (turn wood to pulp) ! paper mills
(turn pulp to paper) ! market (sale), I note that earlier stages are reliant on actions in
developing countries, while developed countries concentrate on the later stages.
Using APP as an example, its products are very popular in the Japanese market, but
Fig. 8.3 Issue chain of the environmental sustainability of the household paper industry. Issues
occurred in Indonesian plantations indirectly but finally related to the economic restructuring in
China
there are no production facilities in Japan. This is a good example of the international
division of labor and resources, which makes mass industrial production effective
and efficient. However, it also explains how a global company like APP must face
different stakeholders, difficulties, and issues in different regions and markets. In this
case, co-design and co-production with all stakeholders become much more
challenging.
The function of NGOs and nonprofit organizations (NPOs) should be emphasized
here. NGOs and NPOs play an important role in monitoring the environmental
impacts of paper manufacturers and in certifying the environmental performance
of paper companies that comply with published standards such as those put forth by
the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), the Programme for the Endorsement of
Forest Certification (PEFC), or the Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI). The posi-
tions of these organizations should be as impartial as possible, to be effective
standard setters. However, the current trend is for certifications from organizations
such as WWF or FSC to be used as marketing tools by paper companies, especially
in Japan. During EcoPro 2017, the largest annual international exhibition on envi-
ronment and energy in Japan, I witnessed that the largest retail company in Japan had
194 K. Qian
placed FSC certifications on their private label household paper products. This could
mislead consumers, who may think that all of the company’s products are
FSC-certified. However, one month before EcoPro 2017, I also witnessed that
their best-selling private lable tissue products were produced in APP China, which
have not been certified by FSC. The relationship between NGOs and vendors should
be evaluated to assure NGOs play their roles in a neutral and fair manner.
Lastly, increasing environmental concerns related to the production of household
paper products are also implicated in the innovation or revolution of the overall
paper industry. Compared to printing and office paper usage, the usage of household
paper products will continue to increase for some decades. However, the usage of
paper, in general, is on the decline. Traditional paper production, with its huge
environmental costs, will be changed in the future. Especially for the paper enter-
prises in Asia, innovation and sustainability will be the most important topics to be
addressed.
of Science and Technology for the Society (RISTEX) of the Japan Science and Technology Agency
(JST), as part of the Future Earth programs.
References
China Paper Association (2018) Annual report of China paper industry 2018
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (1982) Classification and definitions of
forest products. FAO Forest Pap 32:40–41
Guolian Securities (2019) Analysis report of C&S Paper Co Ltd
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan (2016) Report on Overseas Survey on the
Industry of Sanitary Paper. pp 2–3
Qu C, Li B, Wu H, Giesy JP (2012) Controlling air pollution from straw burning in China calls for
efficient recycling. Environ Sci Technol 46(15): 7934–7936
Ren J, Yu P, Xu X (2019) Straw utilization in China—status and recommendations. Sustainability
11:1762. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061762
RISI Analytics (2014) A look at global tissue markets
Sinolink Securities (2018) Analysis report of household paper industry
Szulecka J, Obidzinski K, Dermawan A (2016) Corporate–society engagement in plantation
forestry in Indonesia: evolving approaches and their implications. Forest Policy Econ 62:19–29
Tacconi L (2016) Preventing fires and haze in Southeast Asia. Nat Clim Change 6(7):640
United Credit Ratings Co. Ltd. (2018) Research report of China paper industry 2018
Yano Research Institute Ltd. (2016) Overseas research report on sanitary paper industry
Young R, Akhtar M (1998) Environmentally friendly technologies for the pulp and paper industry.
Wiley, New York
Zhao S, Yu Y, Yin D, He J, Liu N, Qu J, Xiao J (2016) Annual and diurnal variations of gaseous and
particulate pollutants in 31 provincial capital cities based on in situ air quality monitoring data
from China National Environmental Monitoring Center. Environ Int 86:92–106
Chapter 9
Contribution of Community-Based
Ecotourism to Forest Conservation
and Local Livelihoods
Tetsuji Ota, Pichdara Lonn, and Nobuya Mizoue
Abstract Tropical forests significantly contribute to local livelihoods as well as

global carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. Therefore, a strategy that
harmonizes a better quality of life for local people with tropical forest conservation
is required. In Community-based ecotourism (CBET), the local community partic-
ipates in related economic activities. In this chapter, we summarize our current
studies that quantified the contribution of CBET to the income and livelihoods of
local people and forest conservation. We selected the Chambok CBET site in
Cambodia for our case study. First, we quantified the effectiveness of CBET in
forest conservation by analyzing forest cover change with published maps created
from satellite images. Second, we evaluated the contribution of CBET to household
income and livelihood changes through a household survey using a questionnaire.
Analysis of the forest cover change maps revealed that deforestation had signifi-
cantly decreased inside the CBET area as compared to outside it, although the
reduction was not enough to stop net deforestation. The survey revealed that the
total monthly income of CBET member households and non-CBET households was
not significantly different. It also showed that the community members felt the
livelihood change after the implementation of CBET. However, this change may
have been caused by general socioeconomic changes in Cambodia. We conclude
that CBET effectively contributed to forest conservation but in a limited capacity to
household income.
Keywords Community-based ecotourism · Cambodia · Quasi-experimental

approach
T. Ota (*) · N. Mizoue

e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
P. Lonn
Graduate School of Bioresource and Bioenvironmental Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka,
Japan

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_9
198 T. Ota et al.
1 Introduction
Tropical forests play a major role in global carbon storage (Bonan 2008; Sullivan
et al. 2017) and are also global centers of biodiversity (Scheffers et al. 2012).
However, deforestation and forest degradation in tropical areas have become a
global concern over the past few decades (Achard et al. 2002; Hansen et al. 2013).
While forest cover has increased in some tropical countries in the last decade (FAO
2015; IPBES 2018), severe deforestation and forest degradation is still happening in
the tropical forests of many countries. Southeast Asia witnessed a reduction of
12.9% in forest cover between 1990 and 2015, largely caused by an increasing
export market for palm oil, pulp, rubber, and timber products (IPBES 2018).
Deforestation and forest degradation have put tremendous pressure on biodiversity
(Newbold et al. 2014) and forced tropical forests to become a net carbon source
(Baccini et al. 2017). Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop mitigation
strategies.
In addition to their contribution to the global storage of carbon and biodiversity,
tropical forests have also been recognized as an important resource of local liveli-
hoods (Sunderlin et al. 2005). For example, in Cambodia, which is our study site,
more than 90% of rural households depend on fuelwood as a primary source for
cooking and other activities (Top et al. 2004; San et al. 2012). Thus, any conserva-
tion strategy that excludes local people from forests may inevitably affect local
livelihoods. Therefore, we need a strategy that harmonizes forest conservation with
the quality of life for local people in tropical areas.
Community-based ecotourism (CBET), a kind of community-based forest man-
agement, is one of the strategies that could improve both quality of life for local
people and conservation efforts in tropical forests. In particular, CBET is where the
local community participates in related economic activities (Kiss 2004). Because
CBET can generate economic benefits, it is seen as a tool for affording a better
quality of life for the participating community. In addition to the economic benefits,
CBET may contribute to the conservation of natural resources in a CBET area—
natural resources that tourists find attractive are conserved for ecotourism. Thus,
CBET may motivate the local community to conserve the area’s forests. Reflecting
expectations for its benefits, CBET has become popular worldwide. While a number
of studies evaluate its impact (see Das and Chatterjee 2015), most of these are
qualitative (Das and Chatterjee 2015); there have been fewer efforts to accumulate
quantitative data to evaluate the effectiveness of CBET, which include our recent
attempts (Lonn et al. 2018b, 2019). While the need for evidence-based decision-
making is paramount, it is possible only by collecting quantitative data on local
people’s livelihoods and forest conservation.
We, therefore, evaluate the effectiveness of CBET by presenting quantitative data
on forest cover change in a CBET area and the total income of CBET members. In
this chapter, we demonstrate the effectiveness of CBET by summarizing findings
from our recent studies (Lonn et al. 2018b, 2019). We first briefly characterize our
study site and, then, evaluate how the forest has been conserved through CBET.
9 Contribution of Community-Based Ecotourism to Forest Conservation and Local. . . 199
Finally, we discuss how CBET contributes to household income and livelihood

changes.
2 Chambok CBET
The Chambok CBET site, a flagship model of CBET in Cambodia, was selected as
the study area because it is regarded as a good practice of CBET in Cambodia (e.g.,
Prachvuthy 2006). It is located in the Chambok Commune, Phnom Sruoch District,
Kampong Speu Province, southwestern Cambodia (Fig. 9.1). This Commune offi-
cially consists of four villages. Its total number of households and population in
2008 were 761 and 3670, respectively (NIS 2008). Half of the Commune has been
designated as a national park, called the Kirirom National Park (KNP). According to
a 2010 forest cover map of the Forestry Administration in Cambodia, 44% of the
total Commune land comprises deciduous forests, followed by 25%, 16%, and 7% of
non-forest areas, evergreen forests, and semi-evergreen forests, respectively.
Fig. 9.1 Maps of the Chambok Commune and Community-based ecotourism (CBET) conserva-
tion area. We used the World Borders Dataset provided by Thematic Mapping (http://
thematicmapping.org/) to show the country’s border. The boundaries of Chambok CBET conser-
vation zones were provided by the Mlup Baitong Organization. Forest cover change maps created
by Hansen et al. (2013) were used to calculate forest cover in 2000
200 T. Ota et al.
Fig. 9.2 The CBET commune area
Traditionally, the community was heavily dependent on forest resources and

caused deforestation and forest degradation due to overexploitation (Prachvuthy
2006). Therefore, Mlup Baitong, a local environmental non-governmental organi-
zation, embarked on a project in 2002, aiming to improve the quality of life for the
local people and forest conservation. The Chambok CBET program was opened for
visitors the following year. Until 2010, Mlup Baitong supported the program; since
2011, the local people have been managing it themselves.
The main attractions of the CBET area are the surrounding forests, a 40-meter
waterfall, and local streams (Fig. 9.2). In addition to spending time in the forests and
by the water bodies, tourists can enjoy cycling, meals at restaurants, and cultural
events such as traditional children’s dancing, cooking traditional food, and home-
stays. According to the Chambok CBET committee, approximately 10,000 tourists
visited the site in 2010. The revenue from the program was utilized not only for
paying wages but also for infrastructure development, forest conservation in the
CBET area, and assistance for poor households among other things. There is no strict
rule for undertaking CBET activities, and any Cambodian citizen living in the
Commune can work for CBET-related businesses.
It should be noted that not all Commune areas are assigned to the forest conser-
vation zone of the Chambok CBET (Fig. 9.1). This zone comprises three
community-protected areas (CPAs) and three community forestry areas (CFAs).
The total area of the conservation zone is 10.42 km2, which is approximately 13%
of the total Commune area. The differences between CPAs and CFAs are the
locations and the managing authorities. CPAs are located inside the KNP under
the management of the Ministry of Environment of Cambodia, while CFAs are
located outside the KNP under the management of the Forestry Administration.
However, we have not considered these differences in this chapter because they
cooperatively implement the CBET program.
3 Contribution to Forest Conservation
Among the many ways to evaluate the effectiveness of CBET on forest conservation,
satellite data can provide wall-to-wall information on forest cover change. Here, we
summarize the result obtained from satellite data analysis (Lonn et al. 2019), with
which the effectiveness of CBET was evaluated by comparing the forest cover
change inside and outside the CBET area. Further details of this comparison have
been reported by Lonn et al. (2019)
We used forest cover change maps created from the Landsat satellite (Hansen
et al. 2013); a detailed description of the maps is available on his website (https://
earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest/download_v1.1.html).
To explain briefly, the data, provided as approximately 30-m spatial resolution raster
files, includes the tree canopy cover in 2000 and forest loss or gain between 2000 and
2012 per pixel. From this data set, we calculated deforestation and forest recovery
between 2000 and 2012 in the Chambok Commune. We defined forest, deforesta-
tion, and forest recovery as follows: we defined the forest cover in 2000 using the
tree canopy cover of that year; the threshold of tree canopy cover was set to 30%.
Then, we considered that “deforestation” occurred on the pixels that were “forests”
in 2000 but were classified as “no forest” by 2012, and “forest recovery” occurred on
the pixels that were “no forest” in 2000 but were classified as “forest gain” by 2012.
Using the published forest cover change maps, we conducted a two-fold analy-
sis—a direct comparison and taking a quasi-experimental approach. For the com-
parison, we calculated the deforested and forest recovery portions both inside and
outside the CBET area and compared the values. We did this to determine net forest
cover change inside and outside the CBET area.
In addition to this, we used a quasi-experimental approach to evaluate the
effectiveness of CBET. This was done because the location of CBET had not been
chosen randomly, and it was deduced that the simple comparison could yield biased
results. For example, forests that are close to villages or main roads may be chosen as
CBET areas due to the higher accessibility for local people and tourists. On the other
hand, previous studies have demonstrated that the distance to villages or main roads
affects the likelihood of forest loss (Lonn et al. 2018a), because accessibility to a
forest increases with its proximity to a village or main road. In other words, the
distance to a village or main road may covary with both forest loss and the
distribution of CBET. For comparison between inside and outside the CBET area,
we need to control this confounding for minimizing the bias due to the correlation
between covariates. A quasi-experimental approach can minimize the bias by
balancing the distribution of covariates (Stuart 2010). For our analysis, we used a
matching method as the quasi-experimental approach. This method compared forest
cover change inside the CBET area with the change outside the CBET areas that are
202 T. Ota et al.
Fig. 9.3 Forest cover change in the study area between 2000 and 2012 from Lonn et al. (2018a).
Forest cover in 2000, forest loss, and forest gain were analyzed from the forest cover change maps
(Hansen et al. 2013)
very similar to those inside the CBET area for distance to a village or a main road.
We employed the matching method using eight covariates, including distance to the
nearest road and nearest river. The analysis was conducted with R ver. 3.3.3 (R Core
Team 2019) using the “Matching” package (Sekhon 2015).
Deforestation and forest recovery in the Chambok Commune are shown in
Fig. 9.3; deforested areas are mainly distributed in the eastern part of the Commune
(Fig. 9.3). In addition, it seems forest loss occurred more frequently outside the
CBET area, while there were a few cases of the same inside. When we compare
deforested areas inside and outside the CBET area, both show net decreases in forest
cover (Lonn et al. 2019). This result means that the effects of CBET were not enough
to stop net deforestation.
While the simple comparison reveals that CBET cannot stop net deforestation, the
matching method result shows that deforestation reduced by 2% ( p < 0.01) inside
the CBET area compared to outside it (Lonn et al. 2019). Similarly, it also shows that
forest recovery was promoted by 0.5% inside the CBET area as compared to outside
it, although the difference was not statistically significant at the 0.1 level (Lonn et al.
2019).
4 Contribution of CBET to Household Income
Here, we summarize the result from the household survey to quantify the contribu-
tion of CBET to household income, from Lonn et al. (2018b). A survey question-
naire to interview both CBET member households and non-CBET households,
selected systematically, was conducted. In particular, we visited every second
household along the main roads and sub-roads in four villages. This was done
keeping in mind that the household locations may affect the income of the local
people or their livelihoods (Ameha et al. 2014; Rasolofoson et al. 2017). In all,
174 households—77 CBET and 96 non-CBET—were selected from the survey.
These accounted for 23% of the total households in the Commune. Details about the
questionnaire are described in Lonn et al. (2018b). To explain briefly, our question-
naire included questions on current income and its source, socioeconomic status, and
perceptions of livelihood before and after the introduction of the CBET project.
Figure 9.4 represents the total monthly income and ecotourism income of CBET
and non-CBET households. Here, ecotourism income includes any ecotourism-
related work (e.g., accommodation charge for homestays and wages for working at
the CBET site). The median and mean of the ecotourism income of CBET house-
holds were 1.2 and 10.1 USD, respectively.
Distributions of the total income, which included income from other sources in
addition to ecotourism, were very similar between CBET and non-CBET households
(Fig. 9.4). The median and mean of the total income were US $74.1 and 103.7 for
CBET households, and US $64.3 and 81.5 for non-CBET ones, respectively (Lonn
et al. 2018b). The interview on the perception of livelihood change showed that
60.5% and 42.7% of CBET and non-CBET households, respectively, felt an increase
in the quality of their livelihood (Lonn et al. 2018b). On the other hand, 18.4% and
40.0% of CBET and non-CBET households, respectively, felt a decrease in the
quality of their livelihood (Lonn et al. 2018b). Both CBET and non-CBET house-
holds had similar perceptions of why their livelihood had changed, which is
improvement in employment (Lonn et al. 2018b). Only 2% and 0% of CBET and
non-CBET households, respectively, felt ecotourism had improved their livelihood
(Lonn et al. 2018b).
5 Discussion and Conclusion
In this chapter, we quantified the contribution of CBET to changes in forest cover

and the difference in total income between CBET and non-CBET households by
summarizing our recent studies (Lonn et al. 2018b, 2019). The analysis using forest
cover change maps showed that the Chambok CBET contributed to reducing
deforestation, but its contribution was not enough to stop net deforestation. This
finding is consistent with previous studies demonstrating that community-based
forest management in general was effective in conserving forests. First, according
204 T. Ota et al.
Fig. 9.4 Monthly income and expenditure distributions of CBET and non-CBET households from
Lonn et al. (2018b)
to a meta-analysis of case studies in 40 protected areas and 33 community-managed

forests, mostly in tropical America, some in Asia, and one in Africa (Porter-Bolland
et al. 2012), the community-managed forests presented lower and less variable
annual deforestation rates than protected forests. Second, according to a more recent
meta-analysis of 159 studies in Central America and Mexico (Min-Venditti et al.
2017), community-based management was associated with a positive impact on
forest cover in 81% cases, whereas protected areas were associated with a positive
impact in 66% cases.
While we showed the evidently positive contribution of CBET to forest conser-
vation, CBET seldom contributed to any increase in the income of the local people—
ecotourism generated the only US $1.2/month in median comparison. Further, the
interview on livelihood change showed the limited contribution of CBET to the
livelihood of local people. This may be because Cambodia has witnessed remarkable
economic growth since 1998 (Guimbert 2011), and that may provide more employ-
ment opportunities. It is notable that the maximum ecotourism income was US
$97.5, while the median was US $1.2. This result means there is gross inequality
in ecotourism income among Commune members. It is well known that inequality in
ecotourism income has a negative impact on ecotourism activities (He et al. 2008;
Coria and Calfucura 2012). In the case of Chambok CBET, this inequality depends
on the ecotourism-related works that the local people were engaged in and the fact
that large incomes were generated only from homestays (Lonn et al. 2019). The
revision of ecotourism income distribution may be key to improving the average
income of local people.
For archiving the success of CBET, further studies are required to clarify local
people’s motivation to conserve forests under CBET. Conceptually, ecotourism
motivates local people to conserve forests because ecotourism needs attractive
natural resources. However, in our case, the conservation effect may not be derived
from ecotourism—because ecotourism made a limited contribution in increasing
local people’s income and few felt it had improved their livelihood, it is unlikely to
motivate forest conservation. On the other hand, community-based activities for
forest management positively contribute to forest conservation, whether or not it
includes ecotourism (Min-Venditti et al. 2017; Pandey et al. 2017). Some studies
show that tenure security, clear ownership, and/or effective enforcement are impor-
tant factors affecting the success or failure of community-based forest management
(Pagdee et al. 2006; Baynes et al. 2015). Further studies on the effects of these
factors are needed to better understand the success or failure of forest conservation
under CBET.
Finally, we would like to make some suggestions to enable the future success of
the Chambok CBET. First, further efforts toward forest restoration are needed
because CBET was effective but could not stop deforestation. Forest cover in the
Chambok CBET has continued to decrease. Therefore, any strategy that effectively
accelerates forest recovery should be developed. Second, equalization of the eco-
tourism income is an urgent issue to improve the income of the majority of local
people. Currently, only homestay hosts are making a big profit. Thus, there is a need
to create new ecotourism-related jobs for those with low incomes, although it is
easier said than done.
In conclusion, CBET is effective in forest conservation, but its contribution to
increasing the income of local people is limited. To realize the expectation that
CBET can harmonize better quality of life for local people with forest conservation,
we need to develop new strategies focusing on forest restoration and income
equalization.
Acknowledgments We wish to thank the local authorities, Chambok CBET members, and
Chambok Commune members for supporting the study. We are also grateful to the staffs of FA,
the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Cambodia based in the provinces and in
Phnom Penh, and the Mlup Baitong. A portion of the original content is from Ecological Econom-
ics, 151, 62–69, Evaluating the Contribution of Community-based Ecotourism (CBET) to House-
hold Income and Livelihood Changes: A Case Study of the Chambok CBET Program in Cambodia,
(2018), with permission for “text extraction” and “reuse of figure” from Elsevier. The other is from
206 T. Ota et al.
Environmental Conservation, 46, 111–117, Using Forest Cover Maps and Local People’s Percep-
tions to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Community-based Ecotourism for Forest Conservation in
Chambok (Cambodia), (2019), with permission for “text extraction” and “reuse of figure” from
Cambridge University Press. This work was supported by a grant JPMJRX16F1 from the Research
Institute of Science and Technology for the Society (RISTEX) of Japan Science and Technology
Agency (JST) as part of the Future Earth programs.
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Part IV
Co-designs in a Disaster Recovery Process:
Case Studies in the Area Affected
by the Kumamoto Earthquake
Chapter 10
Oral Care that Supports Healthy Lives
as a Case Study of the Kumamoto
Earthquake
Michikazu Hiramatsu and Hideto Ohta
Abstract Immediately after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995 and the
Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, pneumonia outbreak among the elderly
increased the rate of fatalities. What caused this? To use lessons learned during the
large-scale disaster, specialists concerned with the field of dentistry began to take
action using new perspectives. Consequently, they noticed the importance of giving
care to the entire oral cavity as well as the teeth. Based on reports from a dentist and a
dental hygienist who tackled the oral care of the Kumamoto Earthquake victims in
2016, their methods of effective health care following a disaster is presented in this
paper. We also propose a preventative medical activity that can be conducted
sustainably for anyone, not just medical personnel.
Keywords Disaster-related deaths · Oral care · Pneumonia outbreak · Preventive

health care
1 The Rapid Increase of Pneumonia After the Disaster
In the last quarter-century, Japan experienced four large-scale earthquakes: the Great
Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995 (M7.3), the Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake of
2004 (M6.8), the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 (M9.0), and the Kumamoto
Earthquake of 2016 (M6.5, M7.3). In every case, many fell victim to house and
building collapses, landslides, and tsunamis, but many earthquake-related deaths
occurred in the evacuation shelter afterward.
Pneumonia was the top cause of death (Takakura et al. 1997; Suzuki et al. 2011;
Daito et al. 2013; Shibata et al. 2016). Although the proportion of death from
M. Hiramatsu (*)
H. Ohta
Fukuoka Dental Association, Dazaifu, Japan

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_10
212 M. Hiramatsu and H. Ohta
pneumonia is usually about 10%, in the disaster-related death toll after the Great
Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, it was reported as 24% (Adachi 2015).
Based on the report, the medical stakeholders began to acknowledge that “pneu-
monia of the elderly increases after a large earthquake occurs” or “oral care to the
elderly is necessary to prevent pneumonia.” Indeed, in the Niigata-Chuetsu Earth-
quake in 2004, the oral care team was organized for the elderly by dental personnel,
who previously concentrated their attention on the identification of the dead and
emergency dental care as their main disaster support. The Niigata-Chuetsu Earth-
quake was the first event where oral care was used in victim relief (Tanaka 2009;
Nakakuki et al. 2012).
2 Pneumonia Outbreak After the Great East Japan

Earthquake
The Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011, caused a major tsunami that
struck the coast of the Tohoku region and was a catastrophe that caused death and
missing people beyond the extent of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. In this
chaotic situation of an unprecedented catastrophe, the repeated nightmare of a
sudden increase in fatalities due to pneumonia was reported by detailed data tracking
by physicians who assisted in the disaster area.
Kesennuma, Miyagi prefecture is a city with a population of 70,000 located on
the east coast of Tohoku that was affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake. After
the disaster, pneumonia patients were carried incessantly into Kesennuma City
Hospital, and the hospital filled with patients immediately in a few days.
Daito et al. (2013) conducted a detailed analysis of the rapid increase in pneu-
monia based on the medical records and X-ray photographs of pneumonia patients
aged 18 and more before and after the earthquake at three city hospitals. The research
revealed that 225 people (The frequency per week was 5.7 times before the disaster)
were hospitalized with pneumonia within three and a half months afterward. One
hundred and eighty-four (88%) were elderly aged over 65 years. Forty-nine people
(24%; frequency was 8.9 times before the disaster) had lost their lives. Daito et al.
(2013) eventually ascertained that typical pneumonia seen in the elderly increased
more than in normal times, though it was also believed that pneumonia would spread
if oil dust floating in the disaster area were inhaled.
It should be stressed that the pneumonia mortality rate (2.1%) at the elderly
nursing home was far higher than the pneumonia mortality rate (0.1% or less) at
the evacuation center. In the elderly nursing home in the city—where 125 patients
were kept in overwhelming numbers, and six people were being accommodated per
quadruple-sized rooms—five people developed pneumonia in the first 20 days, and
all of whom died.
Detailed data on the rapid increase of pneumonia after the disaster by Daito et al.
(2013) effectively shows how important it is to protect elderly people who need
10 Oral Care that Supports Healthy Lives as a Case Study of the Kumamoto Earthquake 213
long-term care from pneumonia in an adverse environment where their lifeline is

disrupted during a severely cold season. In Daito et al.’s survey, however, it was not
concluded what the main factor among multiple conditions such as age and stress
involved with pneumonia was.
3 The Importance of Oral Care
How can I protect the elderly from pneumonia? The answer was unexpectedly given
by another special elderly nursing home—Keichoen in Kesennuma city. After the
earthquake, among 100 elderly people, no one developed pneumonia or was hospi-
talized who had evacuated to this nursing home (https://www.nhk.or.jp/ashita/
english/stories/tmrw3-pneu.html).
This miracle at the facility, given the generally high risk of developing pneumo-
nia, became possible through oral hygiene management by dental doctors who came
from local and other prefectures. Considering the water shortages, the inside of oral
cavities were cleaned using a forefinger wrapped in wet, nonwoven fabric instead of
a toothbrush, and the salivary glands were massaged to promote saliva secretion.
Yoneyama et al. (1999) also reported that 2 years of incidences of pneumonia at a
special nursing home (where residents were visited by a dentist or a dental hygienist
conducting specialized oral cleaning) was reduced by about 40% compared with
those without such cleaning. Such oral hygiene management might suppress bacte-
rial growth in the oral cavity.
Doctor Daito, who learned the effectiveness of this oral hygiene management,
mentioned later that “I could never imagine at that time that the dentist had predicted
the pneumonia outbreak and was involved in aggressive oral care to prevent it.” As
his view explains, it was challenging to predict pneumonia at the time of disaster
within normal specialized frameworks and prevent its rapid surge.
As mentioned, the experience and wisdom of disaster-stricken medical care
providers from the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake to the Great East Japan Earth-
quake increased awareness for the importance of collaborative medicine between
medical and dental fields beyond their specialties. Gradually, preparing support
systems for oral care for victims during a disaster accelerated (Nakakuki et al.
2012, 2013). Ohta, an author of this present review, is also a dental care worker
who learned and began providing oral care support for victims after their medical
volunteer activities at a disaster site.
4 Oral Care Activities by Dentists and Dental Hygienists

for Reducing Pneumonia Outbreak After the Kumamoto
Earthquake
Like Daito, Ohta et al. (2019) learned the scientific basis for the importance of
professional oral cleaning after he experienced on-site dental support in
Minamisanriku, Miyagi Prefecture, 2 months after the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Through that experience, Ohta realized that, if more dental personnel could conduct
oral care activities targeting patients with a high risk of pneumonia within two weeks
after an earthquake, more people would be saved.
The opportunity to test the idea came on April 16, 2016, when a substantial
earthquake hit Kumamoto, approximately 100 km away from Ohta’s residence.
After the earthquake, Ohta and other dental workers were requested to join local
Kumamoto dentist associations in the field, and dental health support activities were
conducted.
In the severely damaged Minamiaso village (approximately 11,600 population),
the Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT), Japan Medical Association Team
(JMAT), public health nurses, and pharmacists formed a team under the direction of
the Aso Disaster Recovery Organization (ADRO) immediately after the main shock
to conduct emergency medical activities. The local Kumamoto Prefecture dentist
members also participated in this. Ohta’s dental team dispatched from outside
Kumamoto Prefecture entered the village on April 23, seven days after the earth-
quake. The dental team mainly developed cross-organizational support activities
through multidisciplinary professional collaboration with the Japan Rehabilitation
Assistance Team (JRAT) and the Japan Dietetic Association-Disaster Assistance
Team (JDA-DAT).
Ohta’s dental support team used the national standardized assessment form
(http://jsdphd.umin.jp/shiryo.html) for the first time in the disaster area. Conse-
quently, it is possible to clarify the necessity of dental treatment and oral care at
the individual and group level, and to quickly collect information on persons who
require special consideration in shelters and nursing homes that were blind spots in
the Great East Japan Earthquake. The dental team developed a support plan for the
entire region based on the collected information and shared it with non-dental
occupations such as doctors, nurses, nutritionists, physical therapists, social workers,
and logistic officers at the emergency management headquarters meeting. The
Disaster Feeding Support Team (DFST), which is composed of trans-disciplinary
professional members, provided meals to prevent dysphagia in elderly people
requiring special consideration (Maeda et al. 2017; Kato et al. 2019).
In Minamiaso village, Ohta’s emergency team received 46 dental and 252 oral
care treatments (Ohta et al. 2019). Sixty-nine swallowing evaluations and
12 swallowing rehabilitations were performed within the one-month dispatch period
from April 23 to May 22, 2016. During this period, there was one pneumonia patient
who required hospitalization, and no disaster-related deaths due to pneumonia were
identified until a half year after the disaster.
As already mentioned, the pneumonia incidence in the Great Hanshin-Awaji

Earthquake was as high as 24% of the deaths related to the earthquake (Adachi
2015). Although the incidence of pneumonia due to the Kumamoto earthquake is
not yet clear, A Nishinippon Shimbun newspaper published on May 22, 2016,
reported that the number of pneumonia patients during the 16 days after the
Kumamoto Earthquake increased compared to the same period of the previous
year in the two disaster base medical hospitals in Kumamoto city (population,
740,000) (https://www.nishinippon.co.jp/nnp/medical/article/247976/). Based on
these facts, it can thus be said that the medical and health activity through collab-
oration between dentistry, dental hygiene, and various professionals in Minamiaso
village was a successful example of reducing disaster-related deaths.
Recently, the importance of medical-dental collaboration through oral care is
widely recognized in the field of medical welfare. In medical treatment at the time of
a disaster, however, since full-time doctors are often pursued to manage patients
urgently transported under the relatively poor working conditions, there may be
cases where normal oral care cannot be sufficiently performed. There are various
types of facilities for receiving victims, such as base hospitals, clinics, welfare
facilities, and temporary shelters, and the handling scale and content differ by the
facility.
To functionally work preventative oral care for elderly pneumonia sufferers, even
during disasters, it is necessary to predict the condition and number of patients that
can be accepted during a disaster. Eventually, each facility will be requested to
establish a business continuity plan (BCP) including how to accept medical sup-
porters from outside the organization, to check it daily, and improve it after the
disaster.
5 Mouth Breathing, Its Causes, and Adverse Effects: What

People Can Do for Sustainable Health
Life after disasters tends to be worse than is normal, and it is important for health
maintenance that medical supporters and evacuees prevent a decline in autoimmu-
nity. One example is the “A-I-U-Be” exercise proposed by Imai, a physician (https://
mirai-iryou.com/aiube/aiube-english/).
People who take modern diets of soft foods that do not require much chewing
power tend to weaken the muscle strength around the mouth and that of the tongue,
and will eventually be in a state of “mouth breathing,” where the mouth is always
open. A person in the mouth breathing state takes air directly into the mouth more
easily. Thus, saliva secretion is suppressed, and their oral cavities become drier. This
reduces autoimmunity and increases the chances of suffering from diseases caused
by bacteria and viruses.
The A-I-U-Be exercise prevents mouth breathing and raises autoimmunity by
returning the tongue to a normal position and naturally closing the mouth. This
exercise has often been adopted in schools due to the simplicity of doing it anytime,
anywhere without cost. Although not statistically estimated, clear suppression of
winter flu in school children was reported from some elementary school that adopted
the exercise.
Evacuees in disaster areas can significantly reduce the risk of respiratory diseases
such as flu and pneumonia by performing self-cleaning in the oral cavity and such
simple exercises. Consequently, it will be possible to prevent disaster-related deaths.
At Minamiaso village, Ohta’s dental team urged evacuees to use the A-I-U-Be
exercise while handing out cards (https://mirai-iryou.com/aiube/contact-aiube/#i-3)
explaining the method and effect of this exercise. Therefore, educating residents
likely to become disaster victims on the knowledge and skills to maintain their
health, even in a poor environment, is also indispensable for saving lives in the
disaster areas. Moreover, the accumulation of scientific evidence on the effect of
these health activities in disaster areas is a challenge for the future.
References
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related deaths. J Kanagawa Odontol Soc 50:18–21
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Oshitani H, Hashizume M, Endo W, Hagiwara K, Ariyoshi K, Okinaga S (2013) Impact of the
Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on pneumonia hospitalisations and mortality among adults in
northern Miyagi, Japan: a multicentre observational study. Thorax 68:544–550
Kato T, Morita H, Tsuzuki T, Yamaguchi M, Ohta H, Tanoue D, Nakakuki K (2019) Emerging role
of dental professionals with medical staff collaboration in disaster relief following the 2016
Kumamoto earthquakes: implications for the expansion of the scope of dental practice. Int Dent
J 69:79–83
Maeda K, Shamoto H, Furuya S (2017) Feeding support team for frail, disabled, or elderly people
during the early phase of a disaster. Tohoku J Exp Med 242:259–261
Nakakuki K, Tohara H, Kojo A (2012) Research for arrangement of dysphagia in a dental health
care management system during large-scale disasters. Jpn J Dysphagia Rehab 16:57–63
Nakakuki K, Arikawa K, Taguchi C, Ogura M, Nasu I, Teraoka K (2013) Preparation for disaster
dental aid and health system in prefectures. Health Sci Health Care 13:67–75
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Koshikawa Y, Ushijima T, Urata K (2019) Multidisciplinary “eating” support by maintaining
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J Jpn Disaster Food Soc 6:69–76
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Furukawa K, Arai H (2011) Shelter-acquired pneumonia after a catastrophic earthquake in
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pneumonia. Lancet 354:515
Chapter 11
Experiences of University Student
Volunteer Activities to Revitalize the Area
Affected by the Kumamoto Earthquake
Yukyong Jeong, Michikazu Hiramatsu, and Kun Qian
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to clarify the situation and issues of volunteer
activities through the example of the students’ voluntary activities after the Kuma-
moto earthquake. In the case study, we described the volunteer activities of Tokai
University students starting from the time immediately after the Kumamoto Earth-
quake, and the revitalization activities they conducted in the disaster area. We
focused on how the motivations and actions of university students are changing
over time. The students of the Faculty of Agriculture of Tokai University established
a student volunteer group called Aso Fukkoheno Michi which means “Path for
Revitalization of Aso”. The group is currently working on the revitalization of
Minami-aso Village, with a particular focus on developing the sustainability of the
Kurokawa area. With this intention, members of Aso Fukkoheno Michi started to tell
the story of Minami-aso Village to visitors. Through this storytelling activity, the
students are able to convey their own experiences of the disaster to visitors. From the
survey conducted among student volunteers, we learned about the effective ways in
which the students undertook such activities. However, we identified problems faced
by the volunteers regarding the continuation of their efforts in the future, and
regarding maintaining their involvement with the local community.
Keywords Kumamoto earthquake · Local community · Storytelling activity ·

Revitalization · University students
1 Introduction
Until today (August 2019) since the Kumamoto earthquake occurred in April 2016
(Kato et al. 2016), various people, including residents, administrators, students, and
volunteers, have been participating in revitalization efforts in the areas affected by
Y. Jeong (*) · M. Hiramatsu · K. Qian


https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_11
220 Y. Jeong et al.
the disaster. Compared to the situation immediately after the earthquake, however,
there have since been various changes in the way that revitalization efforts have been
undertaken by these various actors. To make revitalization efforts more sustainable,
we need to understand how the motivations and actions of these people are changing
over time. This chapter focuses on the changes in the revitalization efforts made by
students of Tokai University, as an example of the students’ voluntary activities after
the earthquake.
This chapter begins by describing the significance of the students’ revitalization
activities and their purpose. Immediately after the Kumamoto earthquake struck,
university students independently began to operate shelters in some disaster areas.
For example, Kumamoto Gakuen University established its own shelter after the
foreshock of the earthquake (Takagi 2017). Some professors and students in the
Faculty of Social Welfare participated in voluntary activities, taking care of elderly
and handicapped people in the local community. As another example, the Prefectural
University of Kumamoto temporarily opened its campus to local disaster victims. At
that time, through their own initiative, university students formed groups to operate
several missions at shelters—even though they were also themselves victims. The
students appealed to members of university clubs and faculty members to participate
in voluntary activities. They also used social media to recruit participants.
From this response, it is evident that the relationships and networks that had been
established prior to the earthquake were practically utilized to operate the shelters. In
this way, at an early stage after the earthquake, the students were able to act
independently and respond quickly. Some universities in Kumamoto City tempo-
rarily opened their campuses as a shelter for victims (Takagi 2017). After these
shelters closed, many of the students continued to work as volunteers in the disaster
area. Thus, these students made significant efforts towards helping to rebuild areas
affected by the earthquake. This chapter focuses on the actions of university students
in helping to sustain the local community and examines what might be learned from
those efforts. It also introduces the involvement of the Decision Science Center at
Kyushu University, which can act as a case example of the role that a university
might play in disaster recovery.
2 Students’ Volunteer Activities After the Earthquake

2.1 Students’ Actions in the Early Stage After the Earthquake
We conducted field surveys from March 1–2, 2017 in Kumamoto City and Minami-
aso Village, to record the students’ actions in the early stage after the earthquake. As
noted above, these students undertook their actions independently and responded
quickly; they were also able to organize voluntary groups.
The Prefectural University of Kumamoto opened its campus and facilities to the
public on April 14, 2016, when the foreshock occurred. The students’ volunteer
activities started on the same day. The main earthquake occurred on April 16 (Kato
11 Experiences of University Student Volunteer Activities to Revitalize the Area. . . 221
Fig. 11.1 Whiteboards showing the thoughts, feelings, and memories posted by volunteer students
at Prefectural University of Kumamoto at the time of the disaster (photos taken by the author)
et al. 2016). Subsequently, the student groups, which had until this point been acting
separately, became integrated into the Student Volunteer LINE Group; in total, about
200 students joined (Iwasaki 2017). The integrated student group organized a
meeting of group leaders. Various groups shared the workload of managing the
shelters, and they operated systematically.1 The Prefectural University of Kumamoto
closed its shelter on April 18, 2016, because the shelter had only been intended to be
a temporary evacuation area. When the shelter was closed, the students and staff
members of the volunteer center made efforts to remembering and recording the
efforts that student volunteers had made. The students who had worked as volunteers
were requested to post their thoughts and feelings at the time of the disaster on
whiteboards (Fig. 11.1).
One staff member at the Volunteer Center of Kumamoto Gakuen University
described the students’ actions and the situation in operating the university shelter
as follows:
Volunteering has an educational meaning. However, the actions undertaken by the univer-
sity students after the Kumamoto Earthquake seemed to have a sense of mission more than of
volunteering. Students had close relationships with members of university clubs and mem-
bers of faculty, and those relationships naturally led to taking part in volunteer activities.
Students could respond quickly to disaster victims who were in urgent need of help by
mobilizing people and spreading information using social media. I think it was important
that the victims could make use of such advantages.2
As noted above, it would be beneficial to examine the efforts made by the various
people who played different roles at the time of the disaster. For example, the Social
Welfare Council generally maintains a strong network among the residents of the
1
Students at the Prefectural University of Kumamoto immediately took action by organizing
volunteer groups to run shelters. Club leaders became the leaders of the voluntary groups; there
was no compulsion to join. This information was based on the survey conducted on March
1, 2017 at the Prefectural University of Kumamoto. Prefectural University of Kumamoto (2017)
“大学COC事業/創造的復興支援プロジェクト報告書.”
2
Based on the survey of March 2, 2017, Volunteer Center, Kumamoto Gakuen University.
222 Y. Jeong et al.
local community. Thus, the Social Welfare Council can identify the needs of local
residents accurately if time is allowed. However, its decision-making process is often
slow, particularly during a time of crisis. Accordingly, the Social Welfare Council is
better suited to helping with the reconstruction and revitalization process, rather than
reacting during a crisis. For example, following the earthquake, the Social Welfare
Council was responsible for supporting people who were living in temporary
accommodation. On the other hand, the student volunteers were able to respond
quickly to the more urgent needs of the disaster victims.
Even after the universities stopped operating the shelters, most students continued
to engage in volunteer activities. At present, students are still involved in various
volunteer activities. While some students continue to visit disaster areas through the
volunteer center of their university (or an organization related to volunteer activi-
ties), others have instead begun to organize such activities by themselves. Due to this
development, this chapter focuses on the activities of these university students.
Supporting these student activities helps to promote the sustainability of the
local area.
2.2 Tokai University Students in Minami-Aso Village
This chapter introduces a case study focused on a student group that has continued to
undertake volunteer activities to revitalize Minami-aso Village. The Aso Campus of
Tokai University is located in the Kurokawa area of Minami-aso Village. Students of
the Faculty of Agriculture had formerly lodged in Kurokawa. After the earthquake
struck on April 16, the Aso Campus suffered considerable damage: some lecture
halls were destroyed completely, and cracks appeared in the campus grounds
(Matsuura 2017). The Faculty of Agriculture recommenced lectures in the Kuma-
moto Campus of Tokai University on July 1, having concluded that reopening the
Aso Campus would be difficult owing to security problems. At the time of writing,
the Aso Campus is still closed, and around 800 students who had been living in
Kurokawa have been forced to relocate to Kumamoto city. The students of the
Faculty of Agriculture attend lectures in the city: they can use only certain facilities
at Aso Campus, for the purpose of on-site training for agricultural practice. Special
permission was granted for them to continue using these facilities.
Before the earthquake, around 800 students and around 200 local residents had
lived together as a community in Kurokawa. Most of these local residents were
making a living by providing student lodgings. The Aso Campus of Tokai Univer-
sity was established in 1973, and Kurokawa subsequently became a kind of student
village; the students and residents there developed a very close relationship. Thus, in
Kurokawa, students and local residents had already developed strong networks
before the earthquake struck. The Kumamoto Earthquake forced these two groups
of people to live far apart and lead different lives. Most of the residents had to move
to temporary accommodation or other places, whereas the students moved to
Kumamoto City. The intimate relationship that had developed between the students
Fig. 11.2 A photograph of

Kurokawa’s landscape after
the Kumamoto Earthquake:
large cracks in the ground
are evident
and residents remained, however. Under the new situation, the students of the
Faculty of Agriculture of Tokai University established a student volunteer group
called Aso Fukkoheno Michi: the group’s name means “Path for Revitalization of
Aso.” The group is currently working on the revitalization of Minami-aso Village,
with particular focus on developing the sustainability of the Kurokawa area.
Kurokawa was badly affected by the earthquake, as demonstrated by the collapse
of Aso Bridge, which had connected the main road and Minami-aso Village. The
bridge was an irreplaceable piece of infrastructure that supported the daily lives of
Kurokawa’s residents, and was also an attractive site for local tourists. The collapse
of the bridge therefore seriously damaged Kurokawa.
Aso Fukkoheno Michi is involved in various volunteer activities in Kurokawa.
After the earthquake, some students engaged in volunteer activities, such as the
management of shelters and the transportation of supplies to elderly residents. Those
students had lived in Kurokawa, and were therefore affected by the earthquake
themselves. Students who shared the same lodgings contacted each other to confirm
their safety after the disaster struck, for example (Fig. 11.2).
One student who was active as a group leader at the beginning of the volunteer
activities explained the significance of the activities:
We wanted to make an effort to maintain our relationship with the local residents in
Kurokawa. So we organized groups devoted to sustainability and revitalization of this
community. It was unfortunate that most students left the community after graduation. But
some students who experienced the disaster of the Kumamoto Earthquake are still living
there, although their numbers are decreasing. On the other hand, some new students joined
the community. We senior students may be able to communicate something valuable to
Minami-aso Village based on our experience and promote good relationships with local
residents and new students. We are conveying our experiences of the Kumamoto Earthquake
to the new students. We are working on activities to share our memories with the next
generation.3
3
From an interview with the former leader of Aso Fukkoeno Michi, who was a student of Tokai
University, on March 1, 2017.
224 Y. Jeong et al.
With this intention, members of Aso Fukkoheno Michi started to tell the story of
Minami-aso Village to visitors. Through this storytelling activity, the students
are able to convey their own experiences of the disaster to visitors. The students
are enthusiastic about preserving their memories of the disaster, and in doing so they
are assisting new students in creating close relationships with the local community.
3 Aso Fukkoheno Michi: Experiences and Problems

in Activities
Throughout the years that have elapsed since the Kumamoto Earthquake, Aso
Fukkoheno Michi (Path for Revitalizatio of Aso) has continued its efforts to improve
its activities. This section describes the experiences learned from these efforts and
identifies the challenges that the group is now facing. We conducted a research
survey to clarify the problems of managing voluntary activities in the disaster area.
We regularly visited the area and observed the group’s storytelling activities to
visitors of Minami-aso Village. We also interviewed students individually to record
their awareness of the disaster.
As noted above, storytelling is one of Aso Fukkoheno Michi’s main activities.
Another main activity of the group is holding exchange meetings with local residents
and students in Minami-aso Village. In 2016, most of the group’s members were
living in Kurokawa and therefore became victims of the earthquake. In 2017,
however, 15 new students joined the group, with a further five new students joining
in 2018. Most of these new students did not experience the disaster, and none of
them had lived in Kurokawa, and therefore they had not developed a relationship
with the residents. These new students were keen to work towards local revitaliza-
tion, however: they wished to know more about Aso, and play any role in the
development of Minami-aso Village. These wishes were their motivation for taking
part in Aso Fukkoheno Michi’s activities.
According to interviews with the students, it seems that there are differences in
their awareness of the disaster, and furthermore their motivations for wanting to
revitalize the area differed between the senior and new students. The senior students
helped the new students to achieve the group’s tasks by managing the group: in this
way, they could help to reduce the differences in awareness of the disaster, and could
also maintain the group’s intimate relationship with the local community. The
storytelling activities are mainly undertaken by the senior students who lived in
Kurokawa, and who therefore experienced the earthquake. If Aso Fukkoheno Michi
receives requests for storytelling from visitors, some group members travel to
Minami-aso Village from Kumamoto. At present (August 2019), it is impossible
to reach Kurokawa using any public transport, so students have to go there by car.
The students consider this transport problem something of a burden: only a limited
number of students have their own cars, so most group members have no way of
getting to Kurokawa on their own.
Fig. 11.3 Storytelling

activity (May 7, 2017) in
front of Aso Bridge, which
collapsed due to the
earthquake
The narrator does of course play a key role in storytelling. With the passage of
time, the number of Aso Fukkoheno Michi members who are able to narrate about
their own experiences has decreased. New students are also involved in the story-
telling, but they feel that they are unable to describe the disaster situation as vividly
as the students with firsthand experience. Accordingly, Aso Fukkoheno Michi is
making efforts to pass on the storytelling techniques to new students. Maintaining a
sustainable relationship between students and local residents is important in revital-
izing the disaster area (Figs. 11.3 and 11.4).
The senior students of Aso Fukkoheno Michi agreed that it would be necessary
for new students to become well acquainted with both Minami-aso Village and
Kurokawa. They believed that if the new students could better understand Minami-
aso Village, and therefore feel more familiar with the community, their motivation
towards the revitalization efforts would increase. Furthermore, through this process,
the difference in awareness of the disaster between senior students and new students
could be reduced even a little. However, the new students had their own ideas about
revitalization, and about the types of activities that should be undertaken in the
disaster area. It is therefore difficult to generalize the attitudes of the new students
with respect to revitalization. The senior students thought it would be beneficial to let
the new students experience for themselves Minami-aso Village and the surrounding
area, and therefore organized a revitalization tour for the new students (Fig. 11.5).
226 Y. Jeong et al.
Fig. 11.4 Using pictures in storytelling: the scenery of Minami-aso Village
As noted above, the group’s number of storytelling narrators with personal

experience of the disaster had declined, and the new students had become aware
of this problem. The new students became particularly aware of this situation when
they participated in various group events. They organized activities on their own,
and these activities had a big social effect. The new students believed it would be
better to broaden the activities of Aso Fukkoeno Michi and to elicit support for those
activities. They believed it was important to effectively utilize their capabilities as
students.
4 Involvement of the Decision Science Center of Kyushu

University Project Team and Its Activities
There are ongoing recovery operations and revitalization activities in the areas badly
affected by the Kumamoto Earthquake. Various actors, such as local government
officials, university students, tourist organizations, and non-profit organizations, are
making concerted efforts to revitalize these disaster areas. The Decision Science
Center of Kyushu University formed the Kumamoto Project team to help in revital-
izing the disaster areas. In this section, we describe the role of this project team,
which was composed of university researchers. Initially, the Kumamoto Project team
attempted to find a way to provide support to the disaster areas. In the initial process
of surveying disaster areas, project team members came to learn about student
volunteer activities, which at the time were focused on building trust and forming
a cooperative relationship within the student group. The Kumamoto Project team has
since started observing the student volunteers’ activities by regularly visiting them
and interviewing members of Aso Fukkoheno Michi. In this observation, we set our
Fig. 11.5 In the tour for revitalization organized by Aso Fukkoeno Michi, new students experience
the natural environment of Minami-aso Village
project goal to identify the challenges faced by the student volunteers' revitalization
activities in the disaster area. After observing the students’ storytelling activities, the
Kumamoto Project team concluded that there was a big difference between the
narrators with personal experience of the disaster and those without it. Visitors to
the area badly affected by the earthquake could change their ideas about the disaster
and the revitalization efforts by listening to the stories related by the narrator. The
storytelling activities therefore had the potential to greatly influence people. On the
other hand, the new student members of Aso Fukkoheno Michi lacked the personal
228 Y. Jeong et al.
experience of the disaster, and so they had to develop their own way of continuing
the positive efforts towards the local community.
Accordingly, the Kumamoto Project team attempted to widen the circle of
involvement for those making revitalization efforts in the disaster area. The team
thought it would be beneficial to include individuals interested in wishing to make a
contribution to revitalization, as well as those people already engaged in such
actions. The project team recognized that it would be worthwhile for Kyushu
University to inform its society about the activities of Tokai University students.
The Kumamoto Project team of Kyushu University could play a role in encouraging
the activities of Tokai University students. To carry out this idea, the project team
organized an event on a campus of Kyushu University in Fukuoka City (March
11, 2018), in which the project team could bring the activities of Tokai University
students to the attention of citizens. This meeting also allowed the participants to
exchange ideas regarding activities for revitalization, and regarding their ideas for a
desirable future of the disaster area. Participants at the event included dentists and
dental hygienists who had conducted volunteer activities on the dental health of
victims after the disaster and also attracted Kyushu University students. The purpose
of the event was as follows:
• Exchange information about individual and group volunteer activities.
• Provide information about volunteer activities by such individuals as university
students, dentists, dental hygienists, and volunteer participants; it was for this
reason that the event took place in the city of Fukuoka, not in the disaster area.
• Create a new role model for universities, linking all volunteers working in the
disaster area.
Most of the participants recognized the need for further revitalization from
the disaster, and following the meeting could better understand the activities of the
various players, including Aso Fukkoheno Michi (Fig. 11.6). At the event, the
participants gave presentations about their activities. The Tokai University students
of Aso Fukkoheno Michi talked about their various efforts; they shared their
experiences in storytelling, and addressed the ways in which their experiences
could be handed on to new members of the group. The dentists and dental hygienists
introduced their experience of the disaster area. Their volunteer activities consisted
of providing dental care to elderly people who were affected by the disaster. The
project team of Kyushu University (including the authors) gave a presentation on
how to support the volunteer activities of the Tokai University students. After these
presentations, all participants were given the opportunities to share their ideas and
thoughts. Most participants recognized that the volunteers had acted independently,
but that everyone had the same goal: the revitalization of the disaster areas. A student
at Kyushu University stated as follows:
I have never had any experience of a disaster, and I had never thought about disasters and
revitalization. But those presentations made me recognize the need for revitalization. I will
think more about what I can do personally to help with revitalization even though I don’t live
in Kumamoto.
Fig. 11.6 Talking about volunteer activities following the disaster
Participants also understood the possibilities for cooperative actions, as part of a

unified mission working towards revitalizing the disaster areas. In particular, the
members of Aso Fukkoheno Michi learned about the different approaches that they
230 Y. Jeong et al.
could apply to their activities. They also learned that it was necessary to organize
their group so that the new generation of members could continue their work in the
future. These new ideas were propelled by exchanges with leading figures. The event
provided a good opportunity for people dealing with the same issues to exchange
opinions and information. The Kumamoto Project team organized the event, and
also played a meditating role.
5 Conclusions
In this case study, we described the volunteer activities of Tokai University students
starting from the time immediately after the Kumamoto Earthquake, and the revi-
talization activities they conducted in the disaster area. From the survey conducted
among student volunteers, the Kumamoto Project team learned about the effective
ways in which the students undertook such activities. However, the team identified
problems faced by the volunteers regarding the continuation of their efforts in the
future, and regarding maintaining their involvement with the local community. The
group’s new students seemed to be aware that they cannot be as effective as
storytellers as the senior students, so they are instead trying to develop new ways
to operate “Aso Fukkoheno Michi’” in the future. The Kumamoto Project team of
the Decision Science Center of Kyushu University played a role of observing the
group and gave them opinions and comments from a third party. In this project, we
could not contribute to problem solving, but we could observe and analyze students’
activities from an objective standpoint. This must be a cornerstone for the next step.
6 Data Sources
This case study was based on fieldwork and interviews conducted with the following
people and groups (from March 1–2, 2017):
• Prefectural University of Kumamoto
• Kumamoto Gakuen University
• Council of Social Welfare in Kumamoto City
• Council of Social Welfare in Kumamoto Prefecture
• Former student of Tokai University (Aso Campus)
• Student members of Aso Fukkoheno Michi
Interviews with members of Aso Fukkoheno Michi included the following:
• Former student leader of the group Tokai University, Kumamoto Campus (April
27, 2017)
• Storytelling by group members in Minami-aso Village (May 7, 2017)
• Storytelling by group in Minami-aso Village (May 26, 2017)
• Three new students at Tokai University, Kumamoto Campus (June 22, 2017)
• Revitalization tour for new students, organized by Aso Fukkoheno Michi, in
Minami-aso Village (July 15, 2017)
• Student leader of Aso Fukkoheno Michi (March 7, 2018)
• Two second grade students and one third grade student members (May 9, 2019)
• Two first grade students and two fourth grade student members (July 23, 2019)
References
Iwasaki T (2017) Activities of local students in the Kumamoto earthquake. Local Auton Fukuoka
62:32–37
Kato A, Nakamura K, Yohei H (2016) The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence. Proc Jpn Acad
Ser B 92:358–371
Matsuura A (2017) Damage caused by the Kumamoto earthquake and the current state at the
university: Considering non-everyday situations. Rep Kyushu Br Crop Sci Soci Jpn 83:69–71
Takagi A (2017) Rehabilitation from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake and Volunteer Activities.
Abstract of the 2017 meeting, The Association of Japanese Geographers, p S0104
Chapter 12
Attempt to Develop High-Value Rice
in the Shimojin District, Mashiki Town,
Kumamoto Prefecture: Transition Into
Sustainable Local Community Using
Disaster Recovery from the 2016
Kumamoto Earthquakes as a Branding
Strategy
Wataru Tanaka and Rei Itsukushima
Abstract In this chapter, we report the case of a co-design project undertaken in the
Shimojin district that was severely damaged by the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes.
We, IDS3, and local residents have not only attempted to recover the aforementioned
district from the damages it suffered due to the earthquakes but also unite its entire
community, which is currently suffering from population decline and aging. To
supplement its local agriculture, we initiated the co-design project as a means to
promote rice branding by adding value by utilizing the biodiversity in the district and
transforming the district’s rice paddy fields into eco-friendly paddy systems. We
were involved with the project since the consensus building phase owing to our
co-design experience with regard to restoration planning at disaster restoration sites
and knowledge about the district. We primarily conducted our research in three
fields: (1) design of the recovery plan of eco-friendly paddy fields and agricultural
ditches, (2) consensus formation for rice branding, (3) exploration of eco-friendly
farming method suitable for the region under study.
Keywords Co-design · Co-production · Disaster recovery · Community

invigoration · Eco-friendly farming · Brand rice
W. Tanaka (*)
Faculty of Engineering, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
R. Itsukushima
School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Japan

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_12
234 W. Tanaka and R. Itsukushima
1 Introduction
Due to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, paddy fields in Mashiki town suffered
serious damages. Before the occurrence of the earthquakes, the Institute of Decision
Science for a Sustainable Society (IDS3) has been implementing research for the
winter flooded rice paddy fields in the Shimojin district, Mashiki town to improve
regional water cycle and biodiversity, developing a cooperative relationship with the
local community and companies (Fig. 12.1). Based on the relationship, we, IDS3,
have offered to design the recovery plan of eco-friendly paddy ditches as a part of the
recovery plan of the rice paddy fields in the Shimojin district from the 2016
Kumamoto Earthquakes.
In contrast, preserving the local community in the Shimojin district is becoming
an increasingly challenging task owing to the declining trend of birthrate and aging
population and the ever-increasing flow of young people to urban areas. In view of
the future of the Shimojin district, it was considered that the revitalization of the local
Fig. 12.1 Location of the

Shimojin district,
Mashiki Town
12 Attempt to Develop High-Value Rice in the Shimojin District, Mashiki Town,. . . 235
community and establishment of sustainable local community should be given the

highest priority. For this, we proposed the production of high-value rice branded by
eco-friendly farming and eco-friendly rice paddy fields to promote rice production in
the local community, which is a major occupation in the district and can therefore
lead to an increase in employment opportunities. We proposed that the recovery of
rice paddy fields is a good way of rebuilding rice paddy fields, thereby contributing
to a branding strategy for high-value rice production.
Because the establishment of a branding strategy initiated by IDS3 does not lead
to sustainable and autonomous agricultural management by the local entity,
co-design, and co-production process was considered to be the most suitable for
the success of a new branding strategy and was thought to help localize the branding
strategy.
Therefore, we conducted research in three fields: (1) design of the recovery plan
of eco-friendly paddy fields and agricultural ditches, (2) consensus formation for rice
branding, (3) exploration of eco-friendly farming method suitable for the region.
2 Background
2.1 Effort for the Development of High-Quality Rice

Production Before the Earthquakes: “Winter Flooded
Rice Paddy Fields” and “Shimojin Organic Agriculture
Research Group”
Kumamoto city is famous for its abundant groundwater resources, as roughly a

million people in Kumamoto city use groundwater as their primary source of water
supply (Imasaka 2014). This city is therefore also known as the “Groundwater city.”
In addition, a beverage company has a large-scale beer factory shipping its products
to western Japan owing to the city’s plentiful groundwater resource. Groundwater is
an important resource in this area both socially and economically.
In the past few decades, groundwater levels in the surrounding area of Kumamoto
city have been decreasing because of the increase of impervious areas such as
residential area and the decrease of the pervious area such as paddy field area
(Kumamoto Prefecture 2008). A winter flooded rice field is conducted irrigation in
the winter season (fallow period), which is the way to increase the amount of
infiltration from each paddy field. In the area, winter flooded rice fields are intro-
duced by the subsidies from local governments or the beverage company (Kuma-
moto Prefecture 2008) The beverage company has also been conducted its own
winter irrigation subsidy for the rice paddy fields in the groundwater basin of its
beverage plant where includes the Shimojin district (Yamada 2013). Over 3 ha rice
paddy fields in the Shimojin district have been conducted winter irrigation under the
various subsidies.
Notably, winter flooded rice fields in the Shimojin district is to focus on the
quality of groundwater to be recharged. Based on the cooperation of volunteers of
local farmers and guidance by the beverage company, making a rice by organic
agriculture not using pesticides and chemical fertilizers to get pure groundwater. For
the purpose of reducing the environmental burden on groundwater and product high-
quality rice by organic agriculture, local farmers and the beverage company are
organizing “Shimojin Organic Agriculture Research Group” and conduct study
sessions inviting organic agriculture experts. We, Kyushu University IDS3, joined
the research group in charge of the environmental evaluator of organic agriculture.
2.2 Damage to Paddy Fields in the Shimojin District Caused

by the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes
On April 14 and 16, 2016, two enormous earthquakes caused serious damage to the
Shimojin district, Mashiki Town. These earthquakes were caused by the Futagawa
fault across Mashiki Town, and the fault line moved 2 m as a result of serious
damage caused to the villages and farmland in the area (Fig. 12.2).
Out of the 100 paddy fields (accounting for 20 ha in total) in the Shimojin district,
60 paddy fields were cracked. Almost of non-damaged paddy fields also became
impossible to farm because the irrigation channel system in the district was broken.
The afflicted agricultural land in Kyushu became an enormous scale, and the
agricultural land restoration project by the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishery
took two to three years to complete a restoration of farmland from the application
by its farmer. The beverage company, who has been doing the winter flooded rice
fields project in the Shimojin district, decided to restore the paddy fields, regardless
of the farmland restoration projects by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry for
its own sake to restore the groundwater used its plant promptly.
To co-design a restoration plan among the company, local people, and local
governments, a consensus is required to be formed for the restoration of paddy
fields. We, Kyushu University IDS3, join the consensus building as one of the
facilitators, because we possess co-design experience relating to restoration plans
at disaster restoration sites and are well acquainted with the district.
3 Consensus Building Process in the Damaged Paddy

Restoration in the Shimojin District: Why Did We Aim
for High-Value Rice?
To understand the current situation and identify the problems that need to be solved
in the Shimojin community, reminiscent talks (called “Mukasigatari” in Japanese)
concerning the district were conducted several times (Fig. 12.3). A reminiscent talk
Fig. 12.2 Damaged paddy

fields in the Shimojin district
Fig. 12.3 Picture of a

reminiscent talk taking
place. Local people talked
about the old days based on
the map describing the
ancient conditions of this
district
is a meeting wherein the local residents discuss and recall the memories of the old
days when the community was full of energy. Comparison between the past and
present of the Shimojin community acted as a clarification of the image of an ideal
situation of the community in the future. We conducted two reminiscent talks, which
are listed as follows:
• The first reminiscent talks (November 14, 2016)
• The second reminiscent talks (January 10, 2017)
It is important that a maximum number of people participate in the aforemen-
tioned talks, thereby forming a local entity to collectively tackle the problems of the
community, because participation creates a sense of responsibility with regard to
community affairs. We mailed invitation letters and newsletters that targeted absen-
tees to all the local residents of the community. Participants were encouraged to
recall the memories of other participants by talking about old memories. This in turn
worked as a common language, wherein every community member could engage in
and enjoyed reminiscing. By sharing information and feelings during these talks,
relationships of local people were strengthened, and a common purpose and belief
are developed toward a future community. Reminiscent talks are also effective when
overcoming existing conflict between local people such as relationship and interest
conflicts.
In the reminiscent talks, a local resident said the following regarding the future of
Shimojin rice fields; “I want to leave the rice fields in the Shimojin district and hope
children of future community will have an experience to eat the Tanishi snail and the
Dojo loach in the rice fields and diches without having to worry about agricultural
chemicals just like old days.” As a common view created by the two times of
reminiscent talks, people of the Shimojin community found virtue in the nature of
the district and hope the past relationship between the local nature and people will
recover in the future.
Two reminiscent talks deepened our understanding of the future of Shimojin rice
fields that the local residents hoped to see. We therefore moved to the stage of the
workshop where the future Shimojin rice fields was discussed with the local people
(especially those who were involved in the winter flooded rice paddy fields). The
name of the meeting was “Iki-iki rice field meeting,” wherein Iki-iki means “full of
energy” in Japanese. The name was given in the hope that the community will be
vibrant just like it used to be.
• Iki-iki rice field meetings were held five times;
– February 7, 2017
– March 7, 2017
– April 23, 2017
– May 24, 2017
– July 24, 2017
– October 26, 2017
In the meetings,
Because the stories and memories about the local creatures and nature were
particularly frequent in the reminiscent talks, we provided the topic of eco-friendly
rice fields, and high value-added rice by biodiversity friendly branding, and
suggested eco-friendly agricultural channel and farmland in the district.
At a study session conducted during the Iki-iki rice field meetings, branding
experts from the beverage company provided guidance on marketing or branding
products and some cases of branding strategy for farm goods. Several residents
showed interest in cultivating branding high value-added rice in the Shimojin district
for community sustainability. In addition to taste and quality, topics as organic or
decreased use of chemicals, limpid stream (The Kanayama river which flows across
the district), biodiversity, and firefly were discussed as branding components during
the meeting. Especially, fireflies were considered as the iconic species of the paddy
fields of the Shimojin district by the residents, because a myriad of fireflies danced in
the paddy fields in old days. This discussion led to the recollection of sweet
memories of firefly watching and catching experiences.
To promote the Shimojin brand rice, we established a new entity called “Mashiki
Shimojin Organic Rice Research Study Group,” which includes local residents,
Kyushu University, and the beverage company. In the study group, every actor
plays a different role;
• Local residents practice organic or eco-friendly agriculture and sales in the same
branding.
• Kyushu University reports on the effects of eco-friendly agriculture on organisms
and taste. Kyushu University also design eco-friendly drainage channel and
farmland in the district.
• The beverage company provides indirect support such as proposal of branding
image and provision of information on sales channels.
Most importantly, we decided that when branding gets on track and farmers wish
to participate in the study group, they will be permitted to do so.
4 Shimojin Branding Rice in Practice
4.1 Design of an Eco-Friendly Agricultural Channel
During the recovery of paddy fields and agricultural channels from the damages
caused by earthquakes, we took up measures to improve the environmental condi-
tions of agricultural channels.
From the interviews of local farmers, we identified that the agricultural channels
are faced with drought during seasons of non-irrigation (from October to April for
the general crop calendar in the district) except for a winter flooded rice paddy field
where channels are faced with drought from October to early November when winter
flooded rice paddy field starts. This is because customary water right of the district
prohibits the intake of river water for irrigation from October to April (or to early
November for winter flooded rice paddy field). The limited amount of river water is
allowed for using as antifire water from early November, winter flooded rice paddy
field therefore starts in the timing. According to our pre-survey before the environ-
mental improvement, the population of aquatic organisms of the rice fields and the
channels in the district was poor and it is considered that the population was heavily
impacted by the drought. Another problem of the paddy fields and the channels in
the district was the poor connectivity of paddy fields with drainage channels. Steep
and long outlets between paddy fields and channels prevent the migration of aquatic
organisms such as Dojo loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus) and Japanese common
catfish (Silurus asotus). When branding gets on track and eco-friendly agriculture
spread in the district in the future, the poor environmental carrying capacity of the
channels will become a bottleneck on aquatic biodiversity.
We decided that the objective of the environmental improvement of agricultural
channels is to create a permanent aquatic area where common native fish species
such as crucian carp (Carassius auratus langsdorfii), Dojo loach, and Japanese
common catfish can survive through the drought period.
For creating a permanent aquatic area in the channels, small dams were
constructed in March 2018. To examine the workability and strength of these
structures, they were constructed in three different types using different materials
(Figs. 12.4 and 12.5). We initiated the assessment of the impact of these restorations
on aquatic organisms. Although the survey had only just begun, some species such
as firefly and Dojo loach have been increasing and some goby species colonized at
rapid flows created by step structures of the dams.
5 Eco-friendly Farming Method Suitable for the Region
Introduction In this session, we will examine the feasibility of high value-added

rice in the Shimojin district, as a means to establish a sustainable Shimojin commu-
nity. With the aim of the development of high value-added rice having high
biodiversity and produced through eco-friendly farming, we practice multiple
eco-friendly farming methods and examined the responses of organisms in the
paddy field. The ever eco-friendly farming method was assessed by comparing the
taste of the harvested rice and its effect on the biodiversity of the paddy field.
Material and Method The location of the paddy field where the examination was
conducted is shown in Fig. 12.6. The paddy field is located in the Shimojin District
and is adjacent to the Kanayama River, where the spring water from mountains is
used as irrigation water and drains into the river. In addition, the outlet releases water
from the top edge of a 5-m-high embankment with a gradient of 1/1. Therefore, it is
supposed that fishes in the river cannot swim up to the paddy field under study.
In this study, six experimental plots were created in the paddy field, and rice
cultivation and biological research were conducted. A schematic diagram of the
experimental plot is shown in Fig. 12.7. The experimental plots were created by
Fig. 12.4 Aerial photo of the Shimojin district. Red lines indicate the main drainage agricultural
channels and the orange circle indicates the region where environmental improvement was done
dividing a 5 20 m rectangle by a PVC wall having a height of 30 cm. These PVC

walls were embedded on the ground at a depth of 10–15 cm to prevent water
penetration into neighboring plots. Watergates with a width of 10 cm were installed
on both inlet and outlet sides of each plot, and the height of the watergate from the
bottom was changed from 3 cm to 20 cm. In addition, we created ridges on the inlet
side of each experimental plot so that organisms such as adult frogs can freely come
and go (Fig. 12.8).
Fig. 12.5 Resulting structure of dams. Dams create permanent aquatic areas and step-pool
structures in the channels. Dams were built using three types of materials. (a) Stonework. (b)
Flashboard. (c) Log
Fig. 12.6 Location of the paddy field where the examination was conducted
As common cultivation conditions of each experimental plot, rice was manually

planted at an interval of 21 33 cm, and the yield amount was compared after
harvest. Rice planting was conducted on June 17, 2017, and Hinohikari (a common
variety of rice in Kyushu Island) was used. We did not record the amount of weeding
effort and weed mass for each plot, a challenge encountered by farmers practicing
eco-friendly farming, because weeds did not grow in the paddy field likely due to
weed consumption of golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata) in the research.
The experiment was conducted based on the following five farming methods and
a control plot.
Experimental Plot 1: Conventional Cultivation
In the plot, a farming method based on Hinohikari cultivation generally
performed in Kumamoto Prefecture. According to interviews from local farmers
Fig. 12.7 Schematic diagram of the experiment plots
Fig. 12.8 Ridges on the inlet side of each experimental plot
and a crop calendar published by Japan Agricultural Cooperatives Chikuzen (2017),

we decided the timing of irrigating, drying, harvesting rice, fertilizing, and
pesticide use.
Fertilization:
Rice bran (100 kg/10 a) and chemical fertilizers (nitrogen 1 kg/10 a) were used as
a base fertilizer. In addition, another chemical fertilizer (nitrogen 3 kg/10 a) was
also used.
Pesticide:
Herbicide and pesticide were used twice at the time of rice planting and
midseason drainage.
Experimental Plot 2: Postponed Midseason Drainage
The same numbers and timings of fertilization and agricultural chemical use as
plot 1 (conventional cultivation). In plot 2, we delayed the start time of midseason
drainage for roughly two weeks. It was started in Toyooka City, Hyogo Prefecture to
preserve the foraging sites of oriental white storks by extending the irrigation period
between rice planting and midseason drainage which aims to secure sufficient time
for larvae of tadpoles and dragonflies to metamorphose (Naito et al. 2011).
Fertilization:
Rice bran (100 kg/10 a) and chemical fertilizer (nitrogen 1 kg/10 a) were used as a
base fertilizer. A chemical fertilizer (nitrogen 3 kg/10a) was used as additional
fertilizer.
Pesticide:
Herbicide and pesticide were used twice at the time of rice planting and
midseason drainage.
Experimental Plot 3: Reduction of Agricultural Chemical Uses
The same water management as conventional cultivation, however the number
and amount of agricultural chemical uses were halved compared to that of conven-
tional cultivation of Kumamoto prefecture. A farming method that reduces usage
fees compared to (Kumamoto Prefecture 2015).
Fertilization:
Rice bran (100 kg/10 a) was used as a base fertilizer. Rice bran (40 kg/10 a) was
also scattered at the time of rice planting as a fertilizer and an herbicide. Chemical
fertilizer (nitrogen 3 kg/10a) was used as additional fertilizer.
Pesticide:
A chemical herbicide was used at the time of rice planting and a pesticide was
used at the time of midseason drainage.
Experimental Plot 4: Organic Cultivation
In the plot, an organic farming method was conducted. Water management and
fertilization were decided according to Imasaka (2014) and interviews with local
organic farmers.
Fertilization:
Rice bran was used as a base fertilizer (100 kg/10 a) and an additional fertilizer
(40 kg/10a). Rice bran (40 kg/10 a) was also scattered at the time of rice planting as a
fertilizer and an herbicide.
Pesticide:
Not used.
Experiment plot 5: Organic cultivation with bamboo chip fertilization
In addition to water management and fertilization similar to organic farming,
bamboo chips each of 1.4 mm in thickness were scattered at the time of planting rice.
These chips were used for the purpose of weed suppression.
Fertilization:
Rice bran was used as a base fertilizer (100 kg/10 a) and an additional fertilizer
(40 kg/10a) was also used. Rice bran (40 kg/10 a) and bamboo chips (280 kg/10 a)
were also scattered as a fertilizer and an herbicide, respectively, at the time of rice
planting.
Pesticides:
Not used.
Control Plot:
This plot is a control area for bio-assessment where it is filled with water during
the rice-growing season, without midseason drainage, fertilizers, pesticides. It was
decided that rice will not be planted here.
Aquatic organism surveys were conducted eight times (between 27 June to
28 September) at every experimental plot and the pond that stored the spring water
from the mountains. Rice harvested from each plot was tested along with its eating
quality using component analysis.
5.1 Result and Discussion
The aquatic organisms collected in the recent study are listed in Table 12.1.
In this survey, two fish species were collected; the fluvial Kawa-yoshinobori
(Rhinogobius flumineus) and the Dojo loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus). Dojo
loach is known to utilize paddy as its spawning and nursery habitat. The number of
juvenile Dojo loach is depicted in Fig. 12.9. These juveniles were collected from all
the survey plots including that of the pond. Although adult loaches were collected
only from the pond, all other organisms collected from the paddy survey plots were
therefore juveniles.
Although the juveniles of the loach were collected until the June 20 survey in the
six experimental plot and the control plot, the population of the loach juvenile started
increasing from 30 June survey (Fig. 12.9).
Tanaka (1999) conducted a survey of the loach population in paddy fields,
temporary creeks, and permanent creeks in Matsuyama city, Ehime Prefecture, and
found that the loaches hatched and grew in the paddy fields migrated into neighbor
creeks around midseason drainage, which is consistent with the results of this study.
It is supposed that the loach juveniles in the paddy plots migrate to the pond or
Kanayama River via an outlet.
In contrast, Tanaka (1999) found that a part of the loach juveniles burrow into the
soil during the midseason drainage period and endure drying, and the population of
loaches in paddy fields population increased slightly after midseason drainage.
In this study, the recovery of the loach population could not be found in the paddy
field after midseason drainage. When the water levels were decreasing in experi-
mental plots 1 and 3 for midseason drainage on July 14, the loaches gathered to form
Table 12.1 Aquatic organisms collected in the recent study

Class Order Family Species
Actinopterygii Perciformes Gobiidae Rhinogobius flumineus
Cypriniformes Cobitidae Misgurnus anguillicaudatus
Amphibia Anura Hylidae Hyla japonica (larvae)
Ranidae Fejervarya kawamurai (larvae)
Rana rugosa (larvae)
Rana nigromaculata (larvae)
Insecta Diptera Chironomidae Chironomidae spp. (larvae)
Hemiptera Gerridae Aquarius paludum
Aquarius elongatus
Aquarius spp. (larvae)
Gerris lacustris
Veliidae Veliidae spp.
Nepidae Ranatra chinensis
Ranatra unicolor
Notonectidae Notonecta triguttata
Anisops ogasawarensis
Corixidae Corixidae spp.
Coleoptera Dytiscidae Hydroglyphus japonicus
Cybister tripunctatus lateralis
Cybister tripunctatus lateralis (larvae)
Eretes griseus
Dytiscidae spp. (larvae)
Hydrophilidae Sternolophus rufipes
Sternolophus rufipes (larvae)
Amphiops mater
Berosus lewisius
Enochrus subsignatus
Enochrus simulans
Coelostoma stultum
Hydrophilidae spp. (larvae)
Odonata Libelluidae Pantala flavescens (larvae)
Orthetrum albistylum speciosum
(larvae)
Libelluidae spp. (larvae)
Baetoidea Baetoidea spp. (larvae)
Malacostraca Decapoda Atyidae Atyidae spp. (larvae)
Branchiopoda Anostraca Chirocephalidae Branchinella kugenumaensis
Gastropoda Architaenioglossa Ampullariidae Pomacea canaliculata
Sorbeoconcha Pleuroceridae Semisulcospira libertina
Bivalvia Veneroida Spheridae Sphaerium japonicum
20
18
16
14 Experimental plot 1
Experimental plot 2
12
Experimental plot 3
10
Experimental plot 4
8 Experimental plot 5
6 Control plot 4
4 Pond
2
0
6/27 7/2 7/14 7/20 7/30 8/21 9/7 9/28
Fig. 12.9 Population of juvenile Dojo loach at each survey plot
Fig. 12.10 Dojo loaches gathered to form loach balls (Dojo Dama)
loach balls (Dojo Dama) before burrowing underground, a behavior known to

maintain moisture as long as possible in dry soil (Fig. 12.10). However, in the
subsequent survey on July 20, no loaches were found under the soil where they were
forming loach balls. It was presumed that these loaches that remained in the paddy
field after midseason drainage could not endure dryness or high temperature.
In the experimental plot 6, despite the water being permanently filled, the loach
was no longer captured after 7/20. We assumed that this was due to the fact that there
was no sunlight shielding such as rice stalks and water temperature became too high
for the loaches to survive. The possibility that water temperature has risen around
this period is also supported by the fact that the number of loaches collected in the
other experimental sections 2, 4, and 5, similarly decreased in the survey conducted
on July 20 and 30.
Kawa-Yoshinobori was collected only in the pond. Because the temperature in
the paddy field is too high for the inhabitation of goby, which thrives on flowing
water environment such as a large river. In fact, a dead goby was found on a plot of
paddy field during the survey conducted on July 14. It is presumed that the goby
moved into the paddy field due to the heavy rain just before the survey and therefore
could not return to the pond.
The black-spotted pond frog (Rana nigromaculata) generally spawns in early
June in central Kyushu, and the larva of the frog approximately two months to
metamorphose. In the southern part of Japan, the delay of irrigation and the shorten
period from irrigation to midseason drainage in modern rice cultivation comparing
with traditional cultivations inhibit the metamorphose of the larva and impact the
distribution of the frog (Murakami and Osawa 2008). In the present study, the eggs
of the frog were found at the time of planting rice, and tadpoles were collected in
subsequent surveys until July 20. After July 20, no tadpoles or juvenile frogs were
found, and therefore, it was supposed that all the tadpoles metamorphosed and
migrated to mountainous areas. The larvae of the tree frog (Hyla japonica) started
metamorphosing and getting onshore from July 14. The larvae of the Indian rice frog
(Fejervarya kawamurai) started metamorphosing and getting onshore from July 20.
The general start time of midseason drainage in conventional cultivation in the
region is in the middle of July, therefore, it is considered effective to delay the
drainage time a little more to conserve the three species.
In experimental plot 6 (control zone), where there was an open water surface,
relatively greater number of water strider (Aquarius paludum) was recorded as
compared with the other plots. Whereas, it was found that a relatively small number
of plant beetles was collected. These plant beetles were collected right after the rice
planting was performed in the experimental plots 4 and 5, which are organic paddy
fields. The plant beetles may have been attracted by rice brans or bamboo chips in
these organic paddy fields.
Regarding dragonflies, larvae of the globe skimmer (Pantala flavescens) and the
white-tailed skimmer (Orthetrum albistylum). All were only organic paddy fields in
the experimental plot 4 and 5 and experimental plot 6 (control zone). Previous study
has suggested that dragonfly larvae are vulnerable to pesticides (Nakanishi et al.
2009), and it supports the result of our study.
Table 12.2 Yield of each survey plot

Experimental plot Fertilizer used at rice planting Additional fertilizer Yield (kg/10a)
Experimental plot 1 Chemical Chemical 425
Experimental plot 2 Chemical Chemical 418
Experimental plot 3 Organic (rice bran) Chemical 390
Experimental plot 4 Organic (rice bran) Organic (rice bran) 382
Experimental plot 5 Organic (rice bran) Organic (rice bran) 384
The yields of each experimental plot are presented in Table 12.2. A yield of
around 420 kg/10a was obtained in the conventional cultivation plot (plot 1), and
postponed midseason drainage paddy field (plot 2), while the yield is reduced to
380–390 kg/10a in the reduced agricultural chemicals plot (plot 3), organic cultiva-
tion (plot 4) and organic cultivation with bamboo chip fertilization (plot 5). The
difference in yield between conventional cultivation and organic cultivation was
about 10%, which was in general agreement with previous reports (Asai et al. 2016).
It was suggested that in all the agricultural methods using rice bran at the timing of
rice planting, the yield decreased compared to conventional cultivation. Rice bran
was sprayed for the purpose of suppressing weeds, which may affect not only weeds
but also rice. In some cases of biodiversity conservation branding rice in other areas,
the market prices are more than twice that of conventional rice (for example, Toki
funjatta Mai). A loss of approximately 10% in yield can be covered by high added
value.
Table 12.3 presents the results of eating quality analysis conducted by Satake Co.,
Ltd. Based on the results, it was determined that Hinohikari in Kumamoto city had
the highest eating quality. From the viewpoint of ingredients, the rice harvested in
this study was overdried and the protein intake was higher in Hinohikari in Kuma-
moto city. In general, amylose is known to depend on rice varieties and the
temperature condition in the ripening period. As a cultivation method aimed at
reducing the protein content of rice, deep water management, or midseason drainage
at the time of secondary tiller, and non-use of the excessive amount of additional
fertilization are crucial (Matsunami et al. 2016). In this study, it is considered that
there was no problem associated with water management of each plot because deep
water management was conducted in experimental plot 2 and midseason drainage in
other experimental plots in late July, which is the time of secondary tiller. As for the
additional fertilization, the amount of nitrogen 3 kg/10 was decided based on the
interviews conducted with the local farmers and a crop calendar published by JA
Chikuzen Asakura. However, we did not base it on the soil fertility diagnosis. The
overuse of fertilizers could have led to decreased eating quality.
250
Table 12.3 Result of eating quality analysis

Experimental plot Experimental plot Experimental plot Experimental plot Experimental plot Hinohikari from Kumamoto
1 2 3 4 5 City
Eating quality 66 59 60 66 61 72
score
Protein (%) 7.9 8.8 8.6 7.7 8.3 7.3
Wet (%) 11.4 11.4 11.0 10.9 12.0 13.8
Amylose (%) 19.9 20.5 20.4 19.8 20.4 19.3
W. Tanaka and R. Itsukushima
References
Asai T, Tobina H, Maeda S, Nishikawa K (2016) Growth characteristics, yield and eating quality of
paddy rice in different organic cultivation continued fifteen years. Jpn J Crop Sci 85(3):274–281
Chikuzen JA (2017) A crop calendar for rice 2017. http://www.asakura-fk-ja.or.jp/docs/inasaku_
2017.pdf. Accessed 11 Nov 2018
Imasaka C (2014) Sustainable groundwater conservation in the Kumamoto area: one of the most
proactive project in the world. Water Sci 58(2):20–32
Kumamoto Prefecture et al (2008) Subsequent plan for comprehensive control of groundwater in
Kumamoto Area. https://www.pref.kumamoto.jp/common/UploadFileOutput.ashx?c_id¼3&
id¼574&sub_id¼1&flid¼1&dan_id¼1. Accessed 11 Nov 2018
Kumamoto Prefecture (2015) Guideline to specially cultivated agricultural products: the level of
agricultural chemical uses of conventional cultivation in Kumamoto prefecture. http://www.
pref.kumamoto.jp/common/UploadFileOutput.ashx?c_id¼3&id¼1208&sub_id¼3&
flid¼53456
Matsunami T, Kodama T, Sano H, Kon K (2016) Agronomic approaches to maximize the
palatability of rice. Jpn J Crop Sci 85(3):231–240
Murakami H, Osawa S (2008) Effects of paddy rice cultivation type on the distribution of Rana
nigromaculata and Fejervarya limnocharis. Jpn J Conserv Ecol 13:187–198
Naito K, Kikuchi N, Ikeda H (2011) Reintroduction of oriental white storks: ecological restoration
and preparation for release into the wild based on the guidelines of IUCN. Jpn J Conserv Ecol 16
(2):181–193
Nakanishi K, Tawa K, Kanbara B, Noma N, Sawada H (2009) Comparisons of macro-aquatic
animal communities among paddy fields under different cultivation management systems. Jpn J
Environ Entomol Zool 20:103–114
Tanaka M (1999) Influence of different aquatic habitats on distribution and population density of
Misgurnus anguillicaudatus in paddy fields. Jpn J Ichthyol 46(2):75–81
Yamada T (2013) Forest husbandry for water cultivation: suntory natural water sanctuary. J
Groundw Hydrol 55(2):187–192
Correction to: Decision Science for Future
Earth: A Conceptual Framework

Kun Qian, Firouzeh Javadi, Nariaki Onda, Fumihiko Yokota, Kumi Eguchi,
Mariko Nishikitani, Kimiyo Kikuchi, Nobuyoshi Kawasaki, Yukyong Jeong,
Jun’ichiro Ide, Tetsuji Ota, Takahiro Fujiwara, Tadatsugu Hosoya,
Shota Tokunaga, Ai Nagahama, Michikazu Hiramatsu, and
Takahiro Murakami
Correction to:
Chapter 1 in: T. Yahara (ed.), Decision Science for Future
Earth, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_1
This chapter was inadvertently published with an incorrect forename of an author.

The correct forename of the 12th author is Nobuyoshi to read as ‘Nobuyoshi
Kawasaki’.
The author name has been updated with this erratum.
The updated online version of this chapter can be found at

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_1
© The Author(s) 2021 C1

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_13

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Tetsukazu Yahara Editor

Decision Science for Future

ISBN 978-981-15-8631-6 ISBN 978-981-15-8632-3 (eBook)

This book is an open access publication.

Fukuoka, Japan Tetsukazu Yahara

Part I The Conceptual Framework of Decision Science for

Part II Lessons Learned from Trans-Disciplinary Studies in Local

5 Conﬂict of Legitimacy Over Tropical Forest Lands: Lessons for

Part III Sustainable Natural Resource Management: Theory and

Part IV Co-designs in a Disaster Recovery Process: Case Studies

Correction to: Decision Science for Future Earth: A Conceptual

Tetsukazu Yahara, Wataru Tanaka, Yukako Inoue, Jounghun Lee,

© The Author(s) 2021, corrected publication 2021 3

Abstract The purpose of this chapter is to review progress in our understanding of

Keywords Adaptive learning · Adaptive comanagement · Cognitive biases ·

Here, we propose that Decision Science, an integrative science of human behav-

we can connect those successes in local communities to successful national and

2 Conceptual Framework of Decision Science

Decision-making is a process of linking scientiﬁc knowledge with solutions to social

Fig. 1.1 A role of decision Environmental

Fig. 1.2 A framework of

decision-making process, we need to deepen our understanding of the human

“D” (Design and Decision-making) is a phase where we design and select a

2.2 Relationship of the IDEA Cycle with Some Previous

Table 1.1 Comparison of ﬁve models for decision-making processes

management of environmental problems spanning water use planning, air quality,

maintain cooperation through experimental executions under social dilemmas? How

2.3 Evolutionary Theory as a Basis of Decision Science

Future Earth is aiming at developing research to better understand changing “social-

variability. Genetic variation in political attitudes (e.g., conservative vs. liberal) is

3 Learning from Failures and Guidelines for Co-design

3.1 Vulnerability of Group Decision-Making

Future Earth emphasizes the importance of co-design with various stakeholders

groupthink symptoms and processes because the concurrence seeking, illusion of

3.2 Predictable Surprise

to psychological vulnerabilities discussed by Watkins and Bazerman (2003)

3.2.2 Error Management Biases

3.3 Guidelines for Co-design Among Stakeholders

Reducing or eliminating cognitive biases from decision-making, called debiasing, is

These techniques and conditions are effective in considering counterarguments

4 Learning from Successes in Local Communities

4.1 Seeds of a Good Anthropocene and Efforts for Adaptive

and implemented in partnership with the National Research Foundation of

functions of biosphere reserves: biodiversity conservation, sustainable economic and

4.2 Lessons Learned from Efforts for Adaptive

Fig. 1.3 Cooperation Community cooperation

to interact with members of different modules in an organization or community. To

4.3 Lessons from Transdisciplinary Projects at the Institute

In this section, based on our experience in transdisciplinary studies at the Institute of

change and reorganization, and coordinate collaboration between stakeholders by

4.3.1 Ecosystem Comanagement in Yakushima, Japan

4.3.2 Citizenship Education in an Aging Society of Tsushima, Japan

Tsushima, an island 132 km north of Kyushu Island, Japan and 50 km south

4.3.3 Recovery from Flood Damage in Asakura and Toho, Japan

Fig. 1.5 Scheme of urgent, Response to the disaster

4.3.4 Supporting Community Forestry in Cambodia

Collaboration between Kyushu University and the Forest Administration of Cam-

4.3.5 Development of Portable Health Clinic as Social Business in India

Noncommunicable diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, and kidney diseases