Slides 8 Black Scholes Model
Slides 8 Black Scholes Model
Slides 8 Black Scholes Model
Marek Rutkowski
School of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Sydney
−1
−2
−3
−4
0 1 2 3 4 5
Time
1 (x−µ)2
f (x) = √ e − 2σ2 for x ∈ R.
2πσ 2
We write X ∼ N(µ, σ 2 ).
One can show that
Z ∞ Z ∞
1 (x−µ)2
f (x) dx = √ e− 2σ 2 dx = 1.
−∞ −∞ 2πσ 2
We have
EP (X ) = µ and Var (X ) = σ 2 .
1 x2
n(x) = √ e − 2 for x ∈ R.
2π
The cdf of the probability distribution N(0, 1) equals
Z x Z x
1 u2
N(x) = n(u) du = √ e − 2 du for x ∈ R.
−∞ −∞ 2π
1 2
p(t, x) = √ e −x /2t , for x ∈ R.
2πt
Hence for any real numbers a ≤ b
Z b Z √b
1 2 t 1 2
P(Wt ∈ [a, b]) = √ e −x /2t dx = √ e −x /2 dx
a 2πt √a
t
2π
Z b
√
t b a
= n(x) dx = N √ − N √ .
a
√
t
t t
where
1 (z − x)2
p(t − s, z − x) = p exp −
2π(t − s) 2(t − s)
Proposition (8.2)
Let W be the Wiener process on a probability space (Ω, F, P).
Then the process W is a martingale with respect to its natural
filtration Ft = FtW , that is, the filtration generated by W .
Bt = B0 e rt , t ≥ 0,
75
70
60
55
50
45
40
35
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Time
Figure: Three sample paths of the stock price with r = 10%, σ = 0.2
and ∆t = 0.001
Theorem (8.1)
The arbitrage price of the call option at time t ≤ T equals
Ct (St ) = St N d+ (St , T − t) − Ke −r (T −t) N d− (St , T − t)
where
ln SKt + r ± 12 σ 2 (T − t)
d± (St , T − t) = √
σ T −t
and N is the standard normal cumulative distribution function.
Z ∞ √ +
x e (r − 2 σ )(T −t)+σ T −tz − K
1 2
= e −r (T −t) n(z) dz
−∞
The price of the put option can be computed from the usual
put-call parity
Ct − Pt = St − Ke −r (T −t) = St − KB(t, T ).
Example (8.1)
Suppose that the current stock price equals $31, the stock
price volatility is σ = 10% per annum, and the risk-free rate
is r = 5% per annum with continuous compounding.
Consider a call option on the stock S, with strike price $30
and with 3 months to expiry. We may assume that t = 0
and T = 0.25. We obtain d+ (S0 , T ) = 0.93 and thus
√
d− (S0 , T ) = d+ (S0 , T ) − σ T = 0.88.
Proposition (8.4)
Consider a path-independent contingent claim X = g (ST ). Let
the price of the contingent claim at t given the current stock price
St = s be denoted by v (s, t). Then v (s, t) is the solution of
the Black-Scholes partial differential equation
∂ σ2 s 2 ∂ 2 ∂
v (s, t) + 2
v (s, t) + rs v (s, t) − rv (s, t) = 0
∂t 2 ∂s ∂s
with the terminal condition v (s, T ) = g (s).
cs = N(d+ ) = δ > 0,
n(d+ )
css = √ = γ > 0,
sσ τ
sσ
cτ = √ n(d+ ) + Kre −r τ N(d− ) = θ > 0,
2 τ
√
cσ = s τ n(d+ ) = λ > 0,
cr = τ Ke −r τ N(d− ) = ρ > 0,
cK = −e −r τ N(d− ) < 0,
The scaled h
√ random walk Y is obtained from Y as follows: we
fix h = ∆t and for every k = 0, 1, . . . we set
√ k √
X
h
Yk∆t = ∆tYk = ∆tXi
i =1
√
Of course, for h = h
∆t = 1 we obtain Yk∆t = Yk1 = Yk .
8: The Black-Scholes Model
Scaled Random Walk
1.5
Y(3∆ t) = 3h
1
0.5
Y(2∆ t) = 2h
0.5
0.5 Y(∆ t) = h
0.5 ...
0.5 0.5 0.5
Y(3∆ t) = h
0
...
0.5 0.5
Y(0) = 0 Y(2∆ t) = 0
0.5
−0.5 Y(∆ t) = −h
0.5
Y(3∆ t) = −h
...
0.5
Y(2∆ t) = −2h
0.5
−1
Y(3∆ t) = −3h
−1.5
Theorem (8.2)
Let Yth for t = 0, ∆t,
√ . . . , be a random walk starting at 0 with
increments ±h = ± ∆t. If
h
P Yt+∆t = y + h Yth = y = P Yt+∆t
h
= y − h Yth = y = 0.5
then, for any fixed t ≥ 0, the limit limh→0 Yth exists in the sense
of probability distribution. Specifically, limh→0 Yth ∼ Wt where W
is the Wiener process and ∼ denotes the equality of probability
distributions. In other words, limh→0 Yth ∼ N(0, t).
√ k
X
h
EP (Yk∆t )= ∆t EP (Xi ) = 0
i =1
k
X k
X
h
Var (Yk∆t )= ∆t Var (Xi ) = ∆t = k∆t = t.
i =1 i =1
Pn
Note that if we denote Yn = i =1 Xi then
X1 + · · · + Xn − nµ Yn − EP (Yn )
√ = p .
σ n Var (Yn )