Tao Goldman 1x1 28jan10
Tao Goldman 1x1 28jan10
Tao Goldman 1x1 28jan10
January 2010
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
Agenda
The Company Market Positioning Pulp and Paper Market 3Q09 Financials Recent Events
The Company
Shareholder Structure
Votorantim Industrial S.A.
29.3%
BNDESPar
33.6% (1)
Free Float
37.1%
50.0%
50.0%
Conpacel
Present value of R$4.5 billion of announced post-merger synergies Up to 2012, 90% of actions to extract synergies are expected to be in place Logistics Tax Others Industrial
Commercial
SG&A
Forestry
(1)
Position as of Nov 30, 2009. BNDESPar has 21% linked to a shareholders agreement with VID during the first 3 years, and 10.9% during the following 2 years.
Auditing
Sustainability
Executive Board
Board of Directors CEO Carlos A. Aguiar
Treasury & IR
Francisco Valrio
Marcelo Castelli
Marcos Grodetzky
Miguel Caldas
Market Positioning
Competitive Strengths
Pulp production capacity: 5.4 MT / year (1) Paper production capacity: 358 kT / year (1) Total area: 1.1 million ha(1)|Eucalyptus plantation: 604 thousand ha (1) 4 plants and operation of 3 port terminals, including the only specialized wood pulp terminal in Brazil, owned by us High yield in eucalyptus production (avg 45 m3/ha/year) and certified forests
Short harvest cycle: 6 years vs. 25-70 years in Southern U.S., Canada and Scandinavia
Data as of Nov 30, 2009. Note: Excluding Guaba.
(1)
1st
5,400
11%
Weyerha eus er APP Canfor Domta r IP Il i m Georgi a Paci fi c ENCE Mercer Wes t Fra s er Ceni bra Stora Ens o 0 1.000 2.000 BSKP 3.000 BHKP 4.000 UKP Mech.
5 33 10 16 43
CAGR 95-09e: 8%
Pulp Demand (in ktons)
Growth 08-09e: 6%
Growth 08-09e: (1%)
CAGR
95-09e:
3%
49 49
17
5.000
6.000
1995 2003 BEKP 2008 Total Market Pulp 2009
Source: PYRY, 2007 / As for Market Pulp: Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC) 2009 and Aracruz. Note: Capacity above mentioned does not include the Guaba unit. (1) Market Share estimated considering 2009 nominal capacity.
Others
48% 45%
530
497 175
254
303
782 707
28%
642 524
520
US$/ton 600
500 400
Iberia
2,35
2,44
300
2,18 2,09 1,95 1,84
232
200 100 0 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000
2001
(1) Source: (2)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
9M09
Companies earnings releases, RISI and Brazilian Central Bank Source: Hawkins Wright Estimate for 4Q09 (3) Fibria's 3Q09 figures
Capacity (kT)
10
Aracruz
Capacity 2.3 mt Technical age: 9
2,500
Trs Lagoas
2,000 Capacity 1.3 mt Technical age: 0
1,500
Indonesia Indonesia
Jacare
Capacity 1.1 mt Technical age: 5
1,000
Uruguay
Veracel
Brazil
500
Portugal Canada Russia USA Sweden Japan Finland France Spain South Africa
China
40
30
20
10
11
1978: Start-up of mill "A" at Aracruz (Barra do Riacho) unit 1988: Acquisition of Celpav 1992: Acquisition of Papel Simo (Jacare unit) 1996: New pulp line at Jacare mill 1991: Start-up of mill "B" at Barra do Riacho unit 2003: Expansion of Jacare mill 2003: Acquisition of Riocell (Guaiba Unit) 2005: Start-up of Veracel 2002: Start-up of mill "C" at Barra do Riacho unit 2007: Asset swap Luis Antnio for Trs Lagoas 2008: Establishment of Conpacel consortium 2009: Start-up of Trs Lagoas mill 5.4 10.6
Barra do Riacho IV
1,5
Losango I
1,5
Trs Lagoas II
1,5
Veracel II
0,7
Brownfield Brownfield Greenfield Brownfield
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Expansion
Aracruz
VCP
Fi bri a
12
Tissue
52%
25%
P&W
Hong Kong
Brazil 9%
Offices
NY004GAK_1.wor NY004GAK_1.wor Which Implies in Less Volatility in Sales Volume Throughout Economic Cycles
1
Breakdown of sales destination in the last 12 months ending September 30, 2009.
13
Road
400
300
Conpacel
Road
200
100
Veracel
90% Barge 10% Road
0
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Jun-09
Trs Lagoas
Rail
Average of 145 km from forests to pulp mills Portocel port terminal in the State of Esprito Santo, is located only 1.5 km from Barra do Riacho plant
Long term relationship with leading paper manufacturers allows for lower freight cost
Bloomberg.
14
15
85%
Source: PPPC
jan/08
93%
60 50 40 30 20 10 Dec-04
feb/08
92%
Source: PPPC
Apr-05
94%
jul/08 aug/08
86%
Aug-06
sep/08
83%
Dec-06
oct/08
79%
Apr-07 Aug-07
77%
90%
27
Dec-09
90%
92% 90%
93%
jan/08
Source: PPPC
15 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09
20
25
30
35
98%
feb/08
93%
mar/08 apr/08
88%
95%
Source: Utipulp
may/08 jun/08
92%
89%
jul/08
87%
aug/08 sep/08
97%
92%
oct/08
85%
nov/08
78%
dec/08
76%
79%79%
77%
apr/09
73%
87%
24
Dec-09
oct/09 nov/09
86%
16
10% 2%
-11% -23%
-11%
-17% China
146 101
98 65 93
North America
Nov/08
Dec/08
Oct/09 Nov/09
Jan/08
Jun/08 Jul/08
Jan/09
Jun/09
Jul/09
May/08
May/09
2009 vs 2008
+25%
-24%
Successive announcements of list price increases (as of Feb.10)
Sep/09
Nov/09
Aug/09
Jun/09
Jul/09
Dec/09
Oct/09
BRL/USD
Dec/09
Feb/08
Oct/08
Feb/09 Mar/09
Mar/09 Apr/08
Aug/08
Sep/08
Apr/09
Aug/09
Sep/09
Western Europe
Japan
17
2008
4.000
7.000 6.000
'ooo t
+99%
2.000
'ooo t +9%
3.000
1.000
2.000
9% 9% 7% 11%
10% 13%
+39% +10%
0 BHKP Total Brazil Chile Indonesia Russia
+165%
1.000 0
Uruguay
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Brazil is the leading exporter of BHKP to China, accounting to approximately 40% of China's total imports in the 11M09.
Between 2005 and 2009, Chinese market share of eucalyptus shipments increased by 17 p.p. (total market pulp: +11 p.p.)
Source: PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity.
18
Effective Date Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Jul 2009 Q3 2009 Oct 2009 Oct 2009 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 1H 2010 May 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2011 late 2011
Sun Paper/IP Lee&Man Jiangsu Oji Paper China Metalurgical Meili Paper Shandong Huatai Paper Shandong Chenming Guangxi Huajin Group
(1)
19
3Q09 Financials
20
Paper Business
Paper: Sales volume ('000 t) Market
110 104
122
Imports more attractive with the US$ devaluation Demand starting to grow again, but apparent consumption is still below 2008 levels
Fibria Performance
Sales volume and revenue mix: focus on specialty papers Seasonality: positive impact on sales volume
Revenues
28%
30%
30%
Uncoated
21% 21% 19% 19%
49%
50%
49%
38%
38%
38%
3Q08
2Q09
3Q09
3Q08
2Q09
3Q09
21
Financial Performance
Pulp: sales volume ('000 t)
3Q09
1.276
21%
1.349
946
30%
37%
38%
11%
36%
10%
16%
3Q08
2Q09
3Q09
North America
Asia
Brazil
Europe
426
433
422
403
3Q08
2Q09
3Q09
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
3Q08
2Q09
3Q09
22
Financial Performance
EBITDA (R$ million) and EBITDA margin (%)
498 389 426 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 576 7% 7% 17% 387 10% 5% 25% 69% 59% 269 14% 13% 31% 41% 1Q09 Expansion 2Q09 Forestry Maintenance 3Q09 Other
3Q08
2Q09
3Q09
+875
(*) The amount is the sum of the Depreciation, Amortization and Exhaustion.
23
Indebtedness
Before the plan x After the plan
Maturity Schedule 1 (R$ billion)
4,8
Original After plan Cash
1,4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
With Collateral
1%
1 FX 2
79%
24
Recent Events
25
Recent Events
Event
Acquisition by VCP of additional 28% of Aracruz common shares VCP Capital Increase VCP conversion of prefered into common shares Tender Offer for Aracruz common shareholders Incorporation proposal for the 0.1347 ratio Merger of Aracruz shares into VCP approval Shareholderes Agreement - VID and BNDES End of withdrawal rights period End of Aracruz trading Fibria trading start (Bovespa: FIBR3 / NYSE: FBR) Approval of the merger of Aracruz into Fibria
Date Jan 20 Apr 14 Jun 12 Jul 02 Aug 24 Aug 24 Oct 29 Nov 12 Nov 17 Nov 18 Dec 22
Source: Fibria
26
Investor Relations Team: Marcos Grodetzky IRO Andr Gonalves IR Manager Fernanda Naveiro Vaz IR Consultant Anna Laura Linkewitsch IR Specialist Livia Baptista IR Analyst
27