Tao Goldman 1x1 28jan10

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Goldman Sachs Brazil Natural Resources Trip

January 2010

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.

Agenda
The Company Market Positioning Pulp and Paper Market 3Q09 Financials Recent Events

The Company

VCP and Aracruz Merged to Create Fibria

Shareholder Structure
Votorantim Industrial S.A.
29.3%

BNDESPar
33.6% (1)

Free Float
37.1%

50.0%

50.0%

Veracel Celulose S.A.

Conpacel

Present value of R$4.5 billion of announced post-merger synergies Up to 2012, 90% of actions to extract synergies are expected to be in place Logistics Tax Others Industrial

6%2% 11% 27% 15% 23% 16%

Commercial

SG&A

Forestry

(1)

Position as of Nov 30, 2009. BNDESPar has 21% linked to a shareholders agreement with VID during the first 3 years, and 10.9% during the following 2 years.

Improved Corporate Governance


Board of Directors
Jos Luciano Penido Raul Calfat Wang Wei Chang Joo Miranda Alexandre DAmbrosio Armando Mariante Carvalho Junior Eduardo Rath Fingerl Jos Armando de Figueiredo Campos Alexandre Gonalves Silva Chairman of the Board Votorantim Representative Votorantim Representative Votorantim Representative Votorantim Representative BNDES Representative BNDES Representative Independent Member Independent Member

Board Advisory Committees

Auditing

Personnel and Remuneration Finance

Sustainability

Executive Board
Board of Directors CEO Carlos A. Aguiar

Ind. Ops & Engineering

Comm. & Intl Logistics

Paper, Planning, Procurement, and Forestry Ops. & Tech

Controllership & Risk Management Evandro Coura

Treasury & IR

Human and Org. Development

Francisco Valrio

Joo Felipe Carsalade

Marcelo Castelli

Marcos Grodetzky

Miguel Caldas

Each officer with more than 20 years experience in the sector

Market Positioning

Creation of a Winning Player

Superior Asset Combination

Competitive Strengths

Pulp Mill Paper Mill Port Terminal

Leadership in Market Pulp


Scale and Integrated Operations
Belmonte Veracel Caravelas Portocel Aracruz Piracicaba Jacarei Santos

Low Production Cost DNA

Trs Lagoas Conpacel

Unique Forestry Management:


Advanced Forestry Techniques and Short Harvest Cycle

Strong / Reliable Customer Base

Pulp production capacity: 5.4 MT / year (1) Paper production capacity: 358 kT / year (1) Total area: 1.1 million ha(1)|Eucalyptus plantation: 604 thousand ha (1) 4 plants and operation of 3 port terminals, including the only specialized wood pulp terminal in Brazil, owned by us High yield in eucalyptus production (avg 45 m3/ha/year) and certified forests

Forest to Port Integration Trough Efficient Logistics

Modern Industrial Plants

Short harvest cycle: 6 years vs. 25-70 years in Southern U.S., Canada and Scandinavia
Data as of Nov 30, 2009. Note: Excluding Guaba.

(1)

Undisputable Leadership in the Global Market Pulp


Dominant Position in a Growing Market
Pulp Production Capacity
2009E in ktons

Market Share (1)


3%

1st

Fi bri a Ara uco APRIL CMPC Sodra Botni a Tembec Suzano

5,400

~ Twice the size


22%

Total Pulp: 188 million MT

11%

Total Market Pulp: 48.5 million MT

Total Hardwood Pulp: 25 million MT


32%

Weyerha eus er APP Canfor Domta r IP Il i m Georgi a Paci fi c ENCE Mercer Wes t Fra s er Ceni bra Stora Ens o 0 1.000 2.000 BSKP 3.000 BHKP 4.000 UKP Mech.
5 33 10 16 43

Total Eucalyptus Pulp: 17 million MT

CAGR 95-09e: 8%
Pulp Demand (in ktons)

Growth 08-09e: 6%
Growth 08-09e: (1%)

CAGR

95-09e:

3%
49 49

17

5.000

6.000
1995 2003 BEKP 2008 Total Market Pulp 2009

Source: PYRY, 2007 / As for Market Pulp: Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC) 2009 and Aracruz. Note: Capacity above mentioned does not include the Guaba unit. (1) Market Share estimated considering 2009 nominal capacity.

Low Production Cost DNA


Unique Expertise Enabling the Lowest Cash Cost in the Market and High Profitability
Fibrias Margin vs. Macroeconomic Fundamentals (1)
Cash Cost (US$/t)

Cash Costs (2)


Wood 456 207 322 454 443 177 416 239 119 276 249 151 266 305 177 171 135 135 408 103 290 269 261 155 106 232 148 84
(3)

Others

48% 45%

50% 47% 43% 42% 41% 36%

530

497 175

254

EBITDA Margin (%)

303

782 707

28%

Avg. BEKP Pulp Prices (US$/ton)


587 492 505 458
3,08 2,92 2,93

642 524

Iberia Hardwood Cash Cost (US$/t) vs. Capacity (kT)

520

US$/ton 600
500 400

Iberia

2,35

2,44

300
2,18 2,09 1,95 1,84

Avg. FX Rate (R$/US$)

232
200 100 0 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000

2001
(1) Source: (2)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

9M09

Companies earnings releases, RISI and Brazilian Central Bank Source: Hawkins Wright Estimate for 4Q09 (3) Fibria's 3Q09 figures

Capacity (kT)

10

State-of-the-Art Production Facilities


Advanced Technology and Production Process Lead to Lower Usage of Raw Materials, Reducing Costs
Modern Plants Competitive Advantages

Average Plant Capacity


(000 tons)

Aracruz
Capacity 2.3 mt Technical age: 9

Streamlined and efficient operations due to modern plants


LARGEST SINGLE LINE PULP PRODUCTION FACILITY IN THE WORLD

2,500

Trs Lagoas
2,000 Capacity 1.3 mt Technical age: 0

1,500
Indonesia Indonesia

Jacare
Capacity 1.1 mt Technical age: 5

Environmental-friendly production process

1,000

Uruguay

Veracel
Brazil

Capacity 1.1 mt Technical age: 3


Chile

BEST YIELD PER HECTARE OF THE WORLD

Reduced emissions and disposition of residues

500
Portugal Canada Russia USA Sweden Japan Finland France Spain South Africa

China

40

30

20

10

Efficient use of chemicals

Technical age of the equipment (years)

and Allowing for a Unique Track Record of Quality Products


1

Last 12 months ending June 30, 2009.

11

Unique Brownfield Potential Growth


Fibria has the Best Sites Ready to Almost Duplicate Capacity
Historical and Planned Capacity Increase
In million of tones

1978: Start-up of mill "A" at Aracruz (Barra do Riacho) unit 1988: Acquisition of Celpav 1992: Acquisition of Papel Simo (Jacare unit) 1996: New pulp line at Jacare mill 1991: Start-up of mill "B" at Barra do Riacho unit 2003: Expansion of Jacare mill 2003: Acquisition of Riocell (Guaiba Unit) 2005: Start-up of Veracel 2002: Start-up of mill "C" at Barra do Riacho unit 2007: Asset swap Luis Antnio for Trs Lagoas 2008: Establishment of Conpacel consortium 2009: Start-up of Trs Lagoas mill 5.4 10.6

Best sites for additional capacity


5,2

Barra do Riacho IV

1,5

Losango I

1,5

Trs Lagoas II

1,5

Veracel II

0,7
Brownfield Brownfield Greenfield Brownfield

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Expansion

Aracruz

VCP

Fi bri a

12

Long Term Relationship With Key Clients


Premium Paper Producers Value High Quality Pulp Customized Products
Global Footprint
Supplies customized pulp products to specific paper grades Sole supplier to key customers focused on eucalyptus pulp to the tissue market Top 10 main customers represent on average 65% of sales

Uses of Fibrias Pulp


Specialty
23%

Tissue
52%

Europe 31% North America 25% Miami


Sales Destination (1)

25%

Switzerland Hungary Asia 34% Beijing

P&W

Hong Kong

Brazil 9%

Offices

NY004GAK_1.wor NY004GAK_1.wor Which Implies in Less Volatility in Sales Volume Throughout Economic Cycles
1

Breakdown of sales destination in the last 12 months ending September 30, 2009.

13

Efficient and Reliable Logistics Network


Efficient Supply Chain to the Customers
Competitive Transportation (Forest > Mill > Ports)
Aracruz (Barra do Riacho) Jacare
Rail

Efficient and Competitive Logistics (1)


Base 100 = March 2006

Road

400

300

Conpacel
Road

200

100

Veracel
90% Barge 10% Road

0
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Jun-09

Trs Lagoas
Rail

Baltic Dry Index

Fibria's inland/ocean freight, insurance and other

Average of 145 km from forests to pulp mills Portocel port terminal in the State of Esprito Santo, is located only 1.5 km from Barra do Riacho plant

Long term relationship with leading paper manufacturers allows for lower freight cost

Bloomberg.

14

Pulp and Paper Market

15

85%

Source: PPPC
jan/08
93%

60 50 40 30 20 10 Dec-04
feb/08
92%

Positive Commodity Cycle and Demand Recovery

Source: PPPC

Apr-05
94%

mar/08 apr/08 may/08 jun/08


89% 91%91%

Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06


82%

jul/08 aug/08
86%

Aug-06
sep/08
83%

Dec-06
oct/08
79%

Apr-07 Aug-07
77%

nov/08 dec/08 jan/09 feb/09 mar/09 apr/09

90%

Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08


may/09 jun/09 jul/09 aug/09 sep/09

88% 92% 97% 86%

Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09

95% 93% 92% 95%

World market pulp shipments to capacity

World pulp producers average days of supply

27

Dec-09

90%

oct/09 nov/09 dec/09

92% 90%

93%

jan/08

Source: PPPC

15 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09

20

25

30

35

98%

feb/08
93%

mar/08 apr/08
88%

95%

Source: Utipulp

may/08 jun/08

92%

89%

jul/08
87%

aug/08 sep/08

97%

92%

oct/08
85%

nov/08
78%

dec/08
76%

jan/09 feb/09 mar/09

79%79%

77%

apr/09
73%

may/09 jun/09 jul/09 aug/09 sep/09

World P&W paper shipments to capacity

79%79% 78% 89%

European pulp consumers days of supply

87%

24

Dec-09

oct/09 nov/09

86%

16

Pulp Supply / Demand Expected to Rebalance in the Medium Term


Market Pulp: world demand growth
62% 55%

China: Eucalyptus pulp shipments (000 t)


Average Average 163 k tons 305 k tons 458 419 368 318 307 307 307 323 299 256 247 238 233 210

10% 2%

-13% -21% Total

-11% -23%

-11%

-10% -23% Latin America

-17% China

146 101

192 186 181 132 134

98 65 93

North America

Nov/08

Dec/08

Oct/09 Nov/09

Jan/08

Jun/08 Jul/08

Jan/09

Jun/09

Jul/09

May/08

May/09

Jan 2009 vs Jan 2008

2009 vs 2008

BHKP List pulp price (FOEX) vs BRL/US$


130 120 110 100 90 80 70 May/09 60 Mar/09 Apr/09 Jan/09 Feb/09

Global market recovery


Demand Paper demand recovery; China keeping up the pace. Low consumers and producers inventories Market downtimes; Currency Appreciation of local currencies against the US$.

+25%

-24%
Successive announcements of list price increases (as of Feb.10)

Sep/09

Nov/09

Aug/09

Jun/09

Jul/09

Dec/09

Oct/09

North America: US$790/t Europe: US$760/t Asia: US$720/t

BRL/USD

FOEX BHKP List Price

Dec/09

Feb/08

Oct/08

Feb/09 Mar/09

Mar/09 Apr/08

Aug/08

Sep/08

Apr/09

Aug/09

Sep/09

Western Europe

Japan

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China's presence in the market pulp sector


China's Hardwood imports of BHKP by country
6.000

China's share of market pulp (%)


Pulp shipments ('000 t) and market share (%)

Growth in 2009 +59%


5.000

10.000 9.000 8.000

Total Market Pulp BHKP BEKP 21%

2008

4.000

7.000 6.000

14% 12% 10% 10% 12% 16% 22% 26%

'ooo t

+99%
2.000

'ooo t +9%

3.000

5.000 4.000 3.000

1.000

2.000

9% 9% 7% 11%

10% 13%

+39% +10%
0 BHKP Total Brazil Chile Indonesia Russia

+165%

+41% +80% +134% +34%


Canada USA Thailand Others

1.000 0

Uruguay

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Brazil is the leading exporter of BHKP to China, accounting to approximately 40% of China's total imports in the 11M09.

Between 2005 and 2009, Chinese market share of eucalyptus shipments increased by 17 p.p. (total market pulp: +11 p.p.)

Source: Hawkins Wright

Source: PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity.

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P&W Paper Capacity Changes


P&W paper capacity withdrawls 2009-2010 (1)
Company M Real International Paper Others Domtar International Paper Others Stora Enzo Sappi Others Domtar International Paper Region/Date Europe/2009 Europe/2009 Europe/2009 North America/2009 North America/2009 North America/2009 Europe/2010 Europe/2010 Europe/2010 North America/2010 North America/2010 000's tonnes 540 250 440 265 200 255 520 220 80 200 340 3,300

China: P&W paper capacity changes 2009-2011(1)

Company / Mill Puyang Longfeng Tralin, Gaotang MCC Yinhe Paper

Effective Date Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Jul 2009 Q3 2009 Oct 2009 Oct 2009 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 1H 2010 May 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2011 late 2011

000's tonnes 350 150 200

2009 = 1.9 million t


Guangxi Jindaxing Paper Yeuyang Paper Fujian Nanping Paper Yeuyang Paper APP, Hainan Island 200 200 200 200 1,200 350 200 400 300 500 1,250 340 6,040

2009 = 1.3 million t

2010 = 1.4 million t

Sun Paper/IP Lee&Man Jiangsu Oji Paper China Metalurgical Meili Paper Shandong Huatai Paper Shandong Chenming Guangxi Huajin Group

2010 = 2.3 million t

Total P&W capacity withdrawls in Europe and North America

2011 = 2.4 million t

Total P&W capacity changes in China

(1)

Source: TerraChoice Dec 2009

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3Q09 Financials

20

Paper Business
Paper: Sales volume ('000 t) Market
110 104

Paper market recovery

122

Imports more attractive with the US$ devaluation Demand starting to grow again, but apparent consumption is still below 2008 levels

Fibria Performance

3Q08 2Q09 3Q09

Sales volume and revenue mix: focus on specialty papers Seasonality: positive impact on sales volume

Paper: Sales and Revenue mix


Sales Volume
Specialty/Other Coated
24% 20% 41% 43% 43%

Revenues

28%

30%

30%

Uncoated
21% 21% 19% 19%

49%

50%

49%

38%

38%

38%

3Q08

2Q09

3Q09

3Q08

2Q09

3Q09

21

Financial Performance
Pulp: sales volume ('000 t)
3Q09
1.276
21%

Pulp: sales mix (000 t)


3Q08

1.349

946

30%

37%

38%

11%

36%

10%

16%

3Q08

2Q09

3Q09

North America

Asia

Brazil

Europe

Net revenue (R$ million)


1.471 1.407 1.402
521 509 473

Pulp Cash Cost (R$/t)


Cash cost w/o stoppages (R$/t)
487

426

433

422

403

3Q08

2Q09

3Q09

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

3Q08

2Q09

3Q09

22

Financial Performance
EBITDA (R$ million) and EBITDA margin (%)
498 389 426 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 576 7% 7% 17% 387 10% 5% 25% 69% 59% 269 14% 13% 31% 41% 1Q09 Expansion 2Q09 Forestry Maintenance 3Q09 Other

CAPEX 9M09: R$1,232 million

35% 26% 30%

3Q08

2Q09

3Q09

Net Income (R$ million)


+52 -148 426 -99 327 -188 Adjusted Ebitda Nonrecurring effects / noncash Ebitda Income tax expense Exchange Variation on Debt Derivatives Other Exchange Variation Interest on loan Income on financial instruments Other financial income Minority Interest -178 +47 -77 -204 -325 Other (*) Net income 3Q09 181

+875

(*) The amount is the sum of the Depreciation, Amortization and Exhaustion.

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Indebtedness
Before the plan x After the plan
Maturity Schedule 1 (R$ billion)
4,8
Original After plan Cash

2,8 1,5 1,6 1,1 0,9 0,8 0,1 0,4

1,4

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Effects of the Liability Management Plan


3Q09 Cash position Average Maturity Average Cost 2 US$/ BRL Subordination structure
Receivables No Collateral
56% 43%

R$ 2.6 bi 37 months 7.42% p.a. 62%/38%


20% 1%

R$ 4.8 bi 47 months 7.50% p.a. 62%/38%

With Collateral
1%

1 FX 2

of September 30, 2009 R$ / US$ 1.7781

79%

Does not include Sellers Financing

24

Recent Events

25

Recent Events
Event
Acquisition by VCP of additional 28% of Aracruz common shares VCP Capital Increase VCP conversion of prefered into common shares Tender Offer for Aracruz common shareholders Incorporation proposal for the 0.1347 ratio Merger of Aracruz shares into VCP approval Shareholderes Agreement - VID and BNDES End of withdrawal rights period End of Aracruz trading Fibria trading start (Bovespa: FIBR3 / NYSE: FBR) Approval of the merger of Aracruz into Fibria

Date Jan 20 Apr 14 Jun 12 Jul 02 Aug 24 Aug 24 Oct 29 Nov 12 Nov 17 Nov 18 Dec 22

Source: Fibria

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Investor Relations Team: Marcos Grodetzky IRO Andr Gonalves IR Manager Fernanda Naveiro Vaz IR Consultant Anna Laura Linkewitsch IR Specialist Livia Baptista IR Analyst

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