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Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest
Jeananne Nicholls · Kurt Schimmel
Sifeng Liu

Managerial
Decision
Making
A Holistic Approach
Managerial Decision Making
Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest • Jeananne Nicholls
Kurt Schimmel • Sifeng Liu

Managerial Decision Making

A Holistic Approach
Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest Jeananne Nicholls
Slippery Rock University Slippery Rock University
Slippery Rock, PA, USA Slippery Rock, PA, USA

Kurt Schimmel Sifeng Liu

Slippery Rock University Institute for Grey Systems Studies
Slippery Rock, PA, USA Nanjing University of Aeronautics &
Astronautics
Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

ISBN 978-3-030-28063-5 ISBN 978-3-030-28064-2 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28064-2

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the
material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
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The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Synopsis

The purpose of this volume is to provide managers and entrepreneurs with a readily
available tool to support their daily decision-making so that they know their deci-
sions are mostly reliable and made on the basis of a sound scientific foundation, and
scholars with a brand new approach to the research of managerial decision-making.
To accomplish this practically significant and theoretically important outcome,
instead of data mining and anecdotal analysis, this book establishes results by
employing systems science and logic reasoning in general and the systemic yoyo
model in particular. This abstract while intuitive in approach avoids all the serious
limitations of econometric methods and anecdotal analyses.
This book is composed of five parts, entitled, respectively, “The Theoretical
Foundation”; “The Present Era of Transient Competitive Advantages”; “The Inno-
vativeness of Firms: Seen from Within”; “Development of Nationally Self-Sustained
Momentum of Growth”; and “Going International or Staying Domestic?” The first
part introduces the relevant details of systems science needed for the rest of this book
and establishes a general theory on the dynamics of market competition and when
and how micro entrants would enter a well-occupied market. The second part
focuses on the fact that the business world is presently in the era of transient
competitive advantages, where the once sustainable advantages become transient
and short-lived. It explains why markets evolve faster and consumers become less
patient than ever before, why companies are under both internal and external
pressures to compete, and how companies can successfully ride the waves of
transient competitive advantages.
The third part addresses the issue of how a firm can survive and succeed by
looking internally at the concept of firms’ innovativeness, which is the origin of
growth. It investigates which of the numerous internal factors, identified empirically
by many different scholars in the past, are actually the primary determinants of firms’
innovativeness and which ones are secondary. Such knowledge is practically sig-
nificant because managers and entrepreneurs can now focus their time and effort on
developing the primary determinants instead of wasting resources on the secondary
ones. The fourth part looks at the national economy by addressing the problem of

v
vi Synopsis

how an impoverished agrarian nation could develop a self-sustained momentum of

growth. Considering the fact that it has been practically impossible, except China in
recent decades, for any impoverished agrarian nation to develop an original Indus-
trial Revolution, this part of the book represents a very important contribution to the
literature on the Industrial Revolution. The fifth part of this volume considers the
question of whether a firm should consider going international or not. To this end,
this part first establishes the relationship between international trades and firm
performance and then looks at the issue of trade dumping and antidumping.
Currently, important large-scale decisions in business are mostly made based on
data mining or anecdotes. However, scientifically speaking, such ways of decision-
making have been time and again shown to be flawed. That also explains why one
magnificent business success of one location generally cannot be duplicated in
another location although various scholarly conjectures or theories are developed
on why the initial success was achieved. Because of this reason, this book is
expected to open up a brand new territory of research valuable for working man-
agers, entrepreneurs, and business/economics scholars. As shown within this book,
many of the conclusions logically drawn on the basis of systems science can be
practically applied to produce tangible economic benefits.
This book is written for those readers who are either graduate students,
researchers, or practitioners in the areas of strategy, management science and
engineering, economics, and decision science, either theoretical or applied. By
studying this book, by referencing back to it regularly, and by employing systems
methods, as presented in this volume, to resolve various demanding issues in
business, the reader will master a brand new tool of analysis and an intuition. By
employing the new tool and intuition, he/she will be able to make useful decisions
relatively quickly without wasting unnecessarily the valuable time and a lot of the
limited financial resources.
Preface

Because of our combined background and training in areas of mathematics and

natural science, we find that there is a lot that needs to be done in the area of
managerial decision-making in particular, and social science in general. The major
difference we observed between mathematics/natural science and managerial
decision-making (or social science) is that in the former case, as long as a new
gadget (or a theorem) is produced with its functionality (respectively, consequences)
well known, other people will most likely be able to design and produce (respec-
tively, prove) a similar gadget (respectively, theorem) although the specific design
(respectively, argument) of the original gadget (respectively, theorem) is not known.
However, for the case of managerial decision-making (or social science), the situa-
tion is not the same. By observing business successes and by theorizing the reasons
why these successes are achieved, people generally cannot duplicate the desired
economic outcomes in another business setting in other parts of the world. To this
end, the Industrial Revolution of England and the magnificent success of the Silicon
Valley (California) are two of many such instances.
To answer the question of what leads to the challenge that faces decision-making
managers and entrepreneurs, one only needs to compare how mathematics and
theories of natural science are developed against how managerial hypotheses are
conjectured. For the former case, each particular theorem or theory is developed
based on some very intuitive and straightforward postulates or laws, accompanied by
the consecutive introduction of specific terms. And the connection between the
starting postulates/laws and each consequent result is established through rigorous
logic reasoning developed on seemingly reasonable playgrounds, such as the n-
dimensional coordinate system, n ¼ 1, 2, 3, . . ., consisting of n real-number lines
that cross each other at a common point, known as the origin. On the other hand,
managerial hypotheses are mostly conjectured based on some particular anecdotes or
specific sets of data. To establish the hypotheses as propositions so that they can be
more widely applied than where the anecdotes and data originally come from in
business decision-making, econometric tools are mostly used. In this process of
developing each and every managerial proposition, uncertainties inevitably appear

vii
viii Preface

first, at the stage of conjecturing the hypotheses and second, at the stage of
econometrically analyzing the data. It is because from the same set of evidences,
different conclusions can be drawn depending on the decision-maker’s background
and because econometric tools are all, without any exception, constrained by their
respectively strict requirements.
Based on this recognition, this book attempts to develop a general theory of
managerial decision-making on the basis of a few elementary postulates, by
employing logic as the method of reasoning and the systems science in general,
and the systemic yoyo model in particular, as the intuitive playground. By doing so,
we are able to take individually background-based guesswork out of the develop-
ment of the theory. Due to this reason, all established conclusions are expected to be
generally employable in real-life applications.
Different from all branches of mathematics that are based on numerical variables,
such as calculus, and various methods of econometrics, systems science focuses on
the investigation of organizations and structures. That is why we adopt systems
science as our way of intuitively seeing how business entities behave in their
interactions with each other, because business entities generally possess their respec-
tively different, yet rich, internal structures. For example, each firm has its specific
organizational culture, tradition, operational routines, etc., constituting the unique
background on which the firm forms its particular understanding out of what the
market is presenting. Differences in these internal structures lead to varied firm-
specific understandings of the same market signal. And, it is these internal organi-
zational structures that make systems science more readily and more adequately
employable for us to study business decision-making than any of the other available
tools developed on numbers or numerical variables, such as calculus and statistics.
Here, calculus helps decision-makers to make predictions by extrapolating the
present situation (also known as the initial value) into the future, while statistics
expand the past trend (also known as data or anecdotes) into the future. However,
managerial decision-making is more or less about predicting such a future that is
drastically different from both the present and the past. That explains why there is an
urgent need for the theory of managerial decision-making to go beyond the capa-
bility boundaries of the classical calculus-based methods and statistics-based tools.
Although the concepts of numbers (and numerical variables) and systems are
abstracted out of the same physical world, they represent the world from two
different and harmonizing angles. In particular, when a business organization is
treated as a collection of unrelated people, properties, etc., the concept of numbers
comes into play. For example, firm X employs n employees, occupies m office
buildings, etc. On the other hand, when the organization of the firm is viewed
holistically, then the concept of systems naturally emerges. For example, this firm
X is really a binding platform that connects such elements as employees, capital
assets, properties, etc. to form an organic whole. It is these relationships that the firm
exists both physically and intellectually. In other words, most problems of manage-
rial decision-making are essentially about organizations or systems, be they individ-
uals, seen as economic agents whose behaviors are dictated by their personal value
systems, firms, markets, industries, economies, etc.
Preface ix

Even though the concepts of numbers and systems share the same origin—the
natural world—they represent two very different aspects of the world. The former is
small scale and local, while the latter is large scale and organizational. More
importantly, numbers exist only postexistence. That is why using number-based
theories to make predictions has not been very successful, just as we discussed
earlier about calculus and statistics. In other words, when one uses post-event
evidence to predict the appearance of a not-yet-occurring event is doomed to be
not very successful. On the other hand, systems emerge at the same time when
physical or intellectual existence comes into being. That is the very reason why the
methodology of systems is more appropriate than all theories developed on numbers
and variables for the investigation of economic entities when their internal structures
cannot be ignored.
As promised, this book presents a general theory of managerial decision-making
with results generally applicable in practice. At the same time, we attempt to make
this theory satisfy the following conditions:
1. It is reader-friendly to as many people as possible.
2. It coincides with people’s intuition.
3. It possesses certain beauty that can be felt easily.
4. It is capable of producing meaningful results and insights for practical purposes.
As is argued by Y. Lin (2009) in the monograph Systemic Yoyos: Some Impacts of
the Second Dimension (CRC Press, New York), only with these characteristics, the
theory developed herein has a chance to enjoy a glorious and long-lasting life.
In particular, to satisfy condition 1, each and every theoretical result presented in
this book will be accompanied by nontechnical explanations. In other words, the
arguments, be they logical or systemic or both, can be skipped over without affecting
the reading of the rest of the book. To satisfy condition 2, established results will be
illustrated as much as possible with systemic intuitions so that the reader can see why
the results are generally true. To satisfy condition 3, various figurative presentations
of the systemic yoyo model are provided. And to satisfy condition 4, this book
considers an array of exciting topics where managerial decision-making is always
located at the center square. In particular, among others, we will carefully and in
details look at the following topics:
1. How market competition plays out dynamically
2. How monopoly can possibly lead profit stagnation
3. How markets always signal their invitation for competition and innovation
4. What makes markets evolve faster and consumers less patient
5. What a firm needs to do to successfully ride the waves of transient competition
advantages
6. What factors internal to a firm primarily determine the innovativeness of the firm
7. What a national government could do to foster the development of a self-
sustained momentum of economic growth
8. Whether or not a firm should consider going international or just staying domestic
9. How such trade behaviors as dumping and antidumping interact with each other.
x Preface

We hope that you, the reader, will enjoy reading and referencing this book in
your real-life decision-making practice and scholarly exploration. If you have any
comments or suggestions, please let us hear from you by dropping us a message.
Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest can be reached at [email protected] or jeffrey.
[email protected], Professor Jeananne Nicholls at [email protected],
Professor Kurt Schimmel at [email protected], and Professor Sifeng Liu at
sfl[email protected].

Slippery Rock, PA, USA Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest

Acknowledgments

This book contains many research results previously published in various sources.
We are grateful to the copyright owners for permitting us to use the material. They
include
Emerald Publishing
Gordon & Breach Science Publishers (Yverdon-les-Bains, Switzerland, and
New York)
Hemisphere (New York)
International Association for Cybernetics (Namur, Belgium)
International Federation for Systems Research (Vienna, Austria)
International Institute for General Systems Studies, Inc. (Slippery Rock,
Pennsylvania)
Kluwer Academic and Plenum Publishers (Dordrecht, Netherlands, and New York)
MCB University Press (Bingley, UK)
Northeastern Association of Business, Economics and Technology
Pergamon Journals, Ltd. (Oxford)
Scientific Research – An Academic Publisher
Springer Nature
Taylor & Francis, Ltd.
World Scientific Press
Wroclaw Technical University Press (Wroclaw, Poland)

xi
Contents

1 Facing the Challenge Holistically . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1 The Issue This Book Attempts to Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 The Systems Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3 Scientific Irregularities: The Norm of Business Life . . . . . . . . . 10
1.3.1 Long-Term Expectations and Short-Term
Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.3.2 The Essence and Origin of Quantities . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3.3 Irregular Information and Systems Science . . . . . . . . . 13
1.4 Major Contributions of This Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.5 Organization of Contents in This Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Part I The Theoretical Foundation

2 Basics of Systems Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.1 The Concept of Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.2 The Systemic Yoyo Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.3 Some Elementary Properties of the Systemic
Yoyo Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3 The Dynamics of Market Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.1 The Problem of Concern and Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.2 Conditions of the Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.3 Monopoly and Profit Stagnation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.4 Market Invitation for Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.5 Expected Profits of New Entrants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Appendix: Proofs of Theoretical Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
The Proof of Theorem 3.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
The Proof of Theorem 3.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

xiii
xiv Contents

The Proof of Theorem 3.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

The Proof of Theorem 3.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
The Proof of Theorem 3.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
4 Market Entry and Market Partition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.1 The Problem to Be Addressed and Its Importance . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.2 Potential Appearance of Micro Entrants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
4.3 General Properties of the Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
4.4 Interactions Between Micro Entrants
and Incumbent Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
4.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
4.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Appendix: Proofs of Theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Part II The Present Era of Transient Competitive Advantages

5 What Is Happening? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
5.1 The Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
5.2 Markets Evolve Faster and Consumers Become
Less Patient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
5.3 Sustainability Is Replaced by Transiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
5.4 An Organizational Essence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
5.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Appendix: Technical Details Relevant to This Chapter . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
The Proof of Theorem 5.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Relevant Technical Details of Bjerknes’ Circulation
Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
The Proof of Theorem 5.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
The Formation of Personal Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6 Successfully Ride Waves of Transient Competitive Advantages . . . . 103
6.1 The Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
6.2 Competitions: Either Internal or External . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
6.3 Adapting to the New Era: Necessary Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
6.3.1 The Model Firm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
6.3.2 The Needed Transitional Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
6.4 Looking at an Actual Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
6.4.1 The Birth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
6.4.2 The Second Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
6.4.3 Peter Grace: The Third Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
6.4.4 Beyond Grace Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
6.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Appendix: Technical Details . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Contents xv

Part III The Innovativeness of Firms, Seen from Within

7 Effects of Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.1 The Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.2 Innovation: The Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
7.3 Clearly Stated Mission: The Starting Point
of Everything Else . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
7.4 Strategic Orientation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
7.5 Strategies Aiming at Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
7.6 Operational Procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
7.7 Managerial Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
7.8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
8 Impacts of Culture, Structure, and Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
8.1 The Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
8.2 Firms’ Culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
8.2.1 Formation of Individual’s Philosophical
and Value Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
8.2.2 Formation of Organizational Culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
8.2.3 Mission and Ambition: Unifying Forces
of Organizational Culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
8.3 Firms’ General Characteristics and Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
8.3.1 The Firm’s Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
8.3.2 The Firm’s Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
8.4 Firms’ Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
8.4.1 The Concept of Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
8.4.2 Leadership Commitment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
8.4.3 Relation Between Leadership and Innovativeness . . . . 171
8.5 Managerial Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
8.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
Appendix: How Firm Size Is Determined by the Market . . . . . . . . . . . 174
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175

Part IV Development of Nationally Self-Sustained Momentum

of Growth
9 The Procedure that Is Supported by Solid Theories . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
9.1 The Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
9.2 The Representative Agrarian Nation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
9.3 Specific Steps for Developing Self-Sustained Momentum . . . . 189
9.3.1 Establish the Long-Term National Goal . . . . . . . . . . . 190
9.3.2 Develop the Basic Standards of Moderate Living . . . . 193
9.3.3 Engineer the Market Fermentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
9.3.4 Promote Primary Target Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
9.3.5 Round Off the Initial Success . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
9.4 What May Go Wrong? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
xvi Contents

9.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205

Part V Going International or Staying Domestic?

10 International Trade and Firm Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
10.2 Domestically Speaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
10.3 Entry into a Foreign Market, Either Less Developed
or Advanced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
10.3.1 Exporting into a Less Developed Market . . . . . . . . . . 214
10.3.2 Exporting into an Advanced Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
10.4 A General Theory on International Trades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
10.4.1 International Trade and Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
10.4.2 International Trade and Employee Wages . . . . . . . . . . 220
10.4.3 International Trade and Firms’ Survival . . . . . . . . . . . 222
10.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
Appendix Proofs of Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
The Proof of Theorem 10.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
The Proof of Corollary 10.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
The Proof of Theorem 10.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
The Proof of Theorem 10.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
Analysis of a Non-Exporter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
11 Trade Dumping and Antidumping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
11.1 The Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
11.2 Competition Between Two Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
11.2.1 Nash Equilibrium of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
11.2.2 Mixed Strategies for the Game of Dumping
and Antidumping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
11.2.3 Dumping in the World Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
11.3 Consumers: The Ultimate Determinant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
11.4 An Analysis of Costs and Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
11.5 Application in a Real-Life Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
11.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

Appendix: Relevant Mathematical Foundations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
About the Authors

Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest also known as Yi Lin, holds all

his educational degrees in pure mathematics and had
1 year postdoctoral experience in statistics at Carnegie
Mellon University. He had been a guest professor of
economics, finance, mathematics, and systems science
at several major universities in China, including Nanjing
University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. And cur-
rently, he is a professor of mathematics and research
coach for the School of Business at Slippery Rock
University, Pennsylvania, and the president of the Inter-
national Institute for General Systems Studies, Inc.,
Pennsylvania. He serves either currently or in the past
on the editorial boards of 13 professional journals,
including Kybernetes: the International Journal of Sys-
tems, Cybernetics and Management Science, Journal of
Systems Science and Complexity, International Journal
of General Systems, The Journal of Grey System, etc.
Currently, he serves as the editor in chief of three book
series, “Systems Evaluation, Prediction, and Decision-
Making” (CRC Press, New York), “Communications in
Cybernetics, Systems Science and Engineering” (CRC
Press, Balkema), and “Communications in Cybernetics,
Systems Science and Engineering – Proceedings” (CRC
Press, Balkema).
Some of his research was funded by the United
Nations, the State of Pennsylvania, the National Natural
Science Foundation of China, and the German National
Research Center for Information Architecture and Soft-
ware Technology. As of the end of 2018, he has
published well over 400 research papers and nearly

xvii
xviii About the Authors

50 monographs and special topic volumes. Some of

these monographs and volumes were published by
such prestigious publishers as Springer, Taylor &
Francis, World Scientific, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Academic Press, etc. Over the years, his scientific
achievements have been recognized by various profes-
sional organizations and academic publishers. In 2001,
he was inducted into the Honorary Fellowship of the
World Organization of Systems and Cybernetics. His
research interests are wide ranging, covering areas like
economics, finance, management, marketing, data anal-
ysis, predictions, mathematics, systems research and
applications, philosophy of science, etc.

Jeananne “Nan” Nicholls is a full professor of mar-

keting at Slippery Rock University (SRU) where she has
been since 2011 after spending 20+ years in senior
positions in technology-based economic development
in Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania – managing
$40+ million worth of research grants and projects. She
has degrees from Kennesaw State University (DBA),
Duquesne University (MBA), and Carlow University
(BS). She is a Fellow in the Direct Selling Education
Foundation, is the VP of Collegiate Relationships for the
Pittsburgh American Marketing Association, and is a
board member of The Education Partnership. She
received SRU’s 2015 President’s Award for Academic
Advising and was named the 2016 Pittsburgh American
Marketing Association (AMA) Distinguished Educator
of the Year and has been SRU’s AMA chapter adviser
since 2011. Additionally, she has been a coauthor on
three best faculty conference papers. Her research inter-
ests include behavioral reasoning theory (BRT), market-
ing/education, firm performance, and online social
presence among other things. She teaches marketing
and management courses at the graduate and undergrad-
uate levels.
About the Authors xix

Kurt Schimmel is a professor of marketing at Slippery

Rock University of Pennsylvania. He has authored over
100 peer-reviewed articles, book chapters, research
monographs, and presentations. He has also served on
over 25 graduate theses. His research interests include
individual and group decision-making, decision heuris-
tics, and behavioral reasoning theory. Some of his
research was funded by the American Bar Association.
He has served as an editor for the Journal of Business,
Economics and Technology and was a founding member
of the editorial board of the Journal of Internet Com-
merce. He was a doctoral fellow of the American Mar-
keting Association. Additionally, he is a graduate of the
Pennsylvania State University Academic Leadership
Academy. He has served on several boards of directors
for nonprofit and regional economic development orga-
nizations. He has held multiple positions including grad-
uate director at West Virginia University, associate dean
at Robert Morris University’s School of Business, and
dean at Slippery Rock University College of Business.
He is currently chair of the School of Business at Slip-
pery Rock University.

Sifeng Liu is senior member of the IEEE, honorary

fellow of WOSC, and senior fellow of Marie Curie
International Incoming Fellowship under the 7th Frame-
work Programme of the European Union. He received
his PhD in systems engineering from Huazhong Univer-
sity of Science and Technology, China, in 1998. He is
currently a distinguished professor of Nanjing Univer-
sity of Aeronautics and Astronautics and a research
professor of De Montfort University. He is serving as
the founding director of the Institute for Grey Systems
Studies, the founding president of the International
Association of Grey Systems and Uncertainty Analysis,
the founding chair of TC of the IEEE SMC on Grey
Systems, and the founding president of Grey System
Society of China. He is also serving as the founding
editor of Grey Systems: Theory and Application (Emer-
ald) and the editor in chief of The Journal of Grey
Systems (Research Information). He had worked at Slip-
pery Rock University in Slippery Rock and New York
Institute of Technology in New York, USA; Sydney
University in Sydney, Australia; and De Montfort
xx About the Authors

University in Leicester, UK, as a visiting professor. And

he led the College of Economics and Management,
NUAA, from 2001 until 2012.
His main research activities are in grey system theory
and applications. He has directed more than 50 research
projects from China, the UK, UN, and EU. He has
published over 600 research papers and 26 books by
Science Press, Springer-Verlag, Taylor & Francis
Group, and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. He is currently
serving as the editor of the book series Grey Systems
published by Science Press. His works cited 32 thousand
times by others and had translated to Korean, German,
and Romanian. Over the years, he has been awarded
18 provincial and national prizes for his outstanding
achievements in scientific research and applications. In
2002, he was recognized by the World Organization of
Systems and Cybernetics. His H-index is 55.
He has won several accolades such as the “National
Excellent Worker of Science and Technology,”
“National Excellent Teacher,” “National Advanced
Individual for Returnee,” “Expert Enjoying Govern-
ment’s Special Allowance,” and “National Expert with
Prominent Contribution.”
Chapter 1
Facing the Challenge Holistically

This chapter describes the challenge this book will address that faces decision-
making managers and entrepreneurs and explains why there is an urgent need to
resolve related issues in order to meet the challenge. After this challenge is clearly
presented, this chapter turns its attention to illustrate why systems science and
systems methodologies are the appropriate approach for managers and entrepreneurs
to use in their daily decision-making while pointing out weaknesses existing in the
widely employed methodologies – anecdotal analysis, calculus-based tools, and
statistics-based methods.
The rest of the chapter is organized as follows: Section 1.1 describes the very
issue this book attempts to address. Section 1.2 introduces the basics of systems
approach and explains why it is an appropriate tool for studying issues of managerial
decision-making. Section 1.3 focuses on the topic of scientific irregularity – what it
is, why it appears, and how it influences the lives of decision-making managers and
entrepreneurs. Section 1.4 details the contributions of this work. And Sect. 1.5
concludes this introductory chapter by outlining the contents of this book.

1.1 The Issue This Book Attempts to Address

There are major differences between natural and social sciences. For example, in
natural science, scholars traditionally investigate lifeless objects and the operational
laws underneath the evolutions of physical things. Experience and rapid develop-
ment of technology of the past several hundred years have witnessed the magnificent
success of this approach. And, in social science, academics widely examine events
and social processes involving people based on past data and known anecdotes,
producing various data-specific and/or anecdote-specific theories hoping that they
can be generally applicable to scenarios beyond the limitations of the original data
and anecdotes. As consequences, in natural science, predictions are produced based
on the basic laws; their accuracies can be checked quite readily later on by

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 1

J. Y.-L. Forrest et al., Managerial Decision Making,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28064-2_1
2 1 Facing the Challenge Holistically

comparing what are predicted and what actually happens over time. And, in social
science, predictions are generally made by using data or anecdotes of the past
through extrapolating the existing pattern observed in the data or anecdotes into
the future. However, the accuracies of the predictions are very difficult to check,
because after learning about what is expected (or predicted), human participants
generally modify their behavioral patterns according to their respective needs for the
future to be. For example, when meteorologists forecast what weather conditions are
forthcoming, the prediction does not have any bearing on the occurrence of the
weather event. However, when influential financial analyzers predict how the stock
market is going to move, be it upward or downward or sideway, in the coming weeks
or months, individual investors generally position themselves accordingly, making
the prediction mostly incorrect.
Because the methodologies and approaches used in natural and social sciences are
different, scientists tend to use affirmative terms to state their conclusions, while
scholars in social science generally use such words as “believe,” “should,” and
“would.” For example, Kotler et al. (2010), Krauss (2011), and Stengel (2011)
believe that today’s customers want to be treated as whole human beings and be
acknowledged that their needs go beyond pure consumerism. In this instance, the
word “believe” means, scientifically speaking, that these scholars are not quite sure
about the correctness of what they are saying. Because Philip Kotler is considered as
one of the most influential marketing thinkers (Kaul 2012), the example given above
simply indicates that most decisions in the area of marketing are made based on
anecdotes or data mining or both so that the decision-maker also knows that his/her
decision could be wrong in general and when applied to scenarios beyond the
limitations of the data or anecdotes employed in their studies. In fact, in natural
science and mathematics, neither anecdotes nor data mining are recognized as
reliable ways to produce dependable theorems and theories beyond potential facts
finding; and by employing data mining, one can also easily discover “realities” that
only exist with the particular sets of data used in the analyses (Lin and OuYang
2010).
When we narrow our general discussion in the previous paragraphs to the case of
managerial decision-making, the following situation emerges, representing a great
and exciting opportunity of scholarly research. When a technological breakthrough
appears, by using the laws of science, engineers from different parts of the world are
generally able to design and produce a similar technology without knowing the
protected details of the original breakthrough. However, contrary to this situation in
natural science, the case with managerial decision-making is not the same. For
example, by closely observing business successes and by theorizing the reasons
why these successes are achieved, people generally cannot duplicate the desired
economic outcomes in another business setting in other parts of the world. To this
end, the Industrial Revolution of England and the magnificent success of the Silicon
Valley (California) are two of many such instances. Many developing countries have
tried very hard in the past 100 plus years to launch their own versions of Industrial
Revolution without luck (Rostow 1960; Wen 2016).
1.1 The Issue This Book Attempts to Address 3

When the product market indicates that an increasing proportion of consumers

make their purchase decisions based on whose price is more competitive, it can be
recognized as an invitation the market sends out for innovation and additional
competition; see Chap. 3 for more details. However, due to differences in their
backgrounds, such as knowledge, skill, and philosophical value systems, and in
availabilities of their respective resources, managers and entrepreneurs react to such
market invitations differently. Due to the differences in understanding the market
and in the consequent reactions responding to the market call, these risk-taking
managers and entrepreneurs experience varied degrees of success. That is, decision-
making managers and entrepreneurs generally face the challenge of how to appro-
priately understand a market signal and how to choose a suitable reaction in order to
produce their desired business success.
In order to see what has led to this both theoretically and practically difficult
challenge that faces decision-making managers and entrepreneurs alike, let us do a
quick comparison without any detailed deliberation between how theorems in
mathematics and theories of natural science are developed and how managerial
hypotheses are first conjectured and then confirmed before practically used.
In mathematics and natural science, scholars first carefully develop a set of basic
and intuitive postulates and laws, respectively. The validity of these postulates and
laws is supported by some relevant and unquestionable knowledge or by repeated
confirmation of lab results. Then each time when a new concept or term or phenom-
enon is introduced or considered, a group of theorems or a theory is established by
using logic reasoning so that each conclusion is derivable directly or indirectly from
the initial set of postulates or laws (Kline 1972; Bauer 2015). Here, the development
of knowledge exploration in mathematics and natural science is similar to how a
dictionary is composed – all words are explained by some very basic words, whose
meanings are assumed to be clear without any further explanation or are explained
by each other. For example, a set is defined as a collection of elements, while an
element is defined as a member of a set (Kuratowski and Mostowski 1976), where
“set” and “element” are two very basic words that are used to define each other and
other words. Speaking differently, the initial sets of postulates and laws capture the
essence of all mathematical scenarios and physical phenomena. As the mankind
expands its exploration of nature, these sets also grow accordingly.
Additionally, other than logic reasoning is universally employed, seemingly
reasonable playgrounds, such as the n-dimensional coordinate system, n ¼ 1, 2, 3,
. . ., consisting of n real number lines that cross each other at a common point, known
as the origin, are mostly utilized to support the background intuition that underlies
rigorous logic reasoning. In fact, beyond playing the role of intuition, the
one-dimensional coordinate system (i.e., simply the real number line) has been
used to develop the theory of real numbers – the Dedekind cuts – that confirms the
existence of irrational numbers; the two-dimensional coordinate system has been
used to establish some of the most basic results of calculus, including limx ! 0sinx/
x ¼ 1; the reason why we say that such a playground as the n-dimensional coordinate
system is seemingly reasonable is because it does not exist in real life. Even so, it has
been very useful and helpful in human understanding of nature.
4 1 Facing the Challenge Holistically

Fig. 1.1 The blind men tempt to conceptualize what an elephant is like

In terms of managerial decision-making, various hypotheses regarding individu-

ally specific populations are mostly conjectured based on some particular anecdotes
or repeated experience or associations of both. When an economic potential and/or
theoretical value of some hypotheses is seen, researchers are aroused to test the
hypotheses by using data and econometric methods in order to establish propositions
so that they can be more widely applied in business decision-making than the range
within which the anecdotes and data originally come from. The entire process of
initially developing hypotheses, followed by testing, and then establishing general
propositions is similar to the situation described in the proverb of “the blind men and
an elephant” (Goldstein 2010, p. 492). In this proverb, a group of several blind men
attempt to learn and conceptualize what an elephant is like by touching it, because
none of them has ever come across an elephant before. If each blind man can only
feel a different part of the elephant’s body, such as the side, the tusk, a leg, an ear, the
nose, the back, and the tail, they then hypothesize how the elephant looks like very
differently from one another based on their limited experience and knowledge,
although their sensing abilities are perfect, Fig. 1.1.
In this analogy, we imagine to treat the elephant as the population of concern, the
blind men’s initial touches of the elephant as the anecdotes from which hypotheses
are developed. As for data collection and econometric testing, they can be seen as
that after their hypotheses are developed, the men go back to where they are allowed
to touch the elephant to collect additional evidences and then confirm whether or not
their hypotheses are sufficiently supported. So, they individually make their
completely different inferences about how the elephant looks like. In this fictitious
scenario, none of these men has obtained the correct answer. To this end, one
naturally questions the imposed constraint that each of these men is only allowed
to touch the elephant at a particular location, because in reality these men naturally
1.1 The Issue This Book Attempts to Address 5

want to explore the elephant in its entirety as much as possible before making their
inferences.
To address this question corresponding to our discussion here, let us return to
issues facing decision-making managers. When anecdotes and data are employed to
formulate hypotheses, one always runs into such problems as sampling error,
missing representation, etc. For example, in the study of market entry and entry
timing, conclusions have been drawn on the available data of some successes, while
those data of failed attempts are simply not available (Zachary et al. 2015). In the
analysis of the innovativeness of manufacturing firms, the very concept of innova-
tiveness is defined in dissimilar ways partially due to the reason of data availability,
while specific-data-backed conclusions are universally stated (Becheikh et al. 2006).
In the investigation of the relationship between a firm’s market reach – domestic, or
importing, or exporting, or any combination of these three options – and its perfor-
mance, conclusions are mostly drawn on the data collected from a few developed
countries because data from other countries are simply not available (Wagner 2012a,
b). In the examination of the Industrial Revolution, most needed data are not possible
to collect, because the event occurred long time ago and the process leading to the
eventual recognition of the Revolution traversed a few hundred years (Rostow
1960). In all these listed and other unlisted studies, the “blind men” are the
researchers, who are only allowed to “feel” particular parts of the underlying
population, although they want to explore more than what is allowed. Hence, in
terms of managerial decision-making, managers have to ask themselves the follow-
ing question:
How much can they place their faith on the “general” conclusions derived empirically in
their decision-making?

Other than what is discussed above, two additional issues that are worthy of our
attention are that (1) from the same set of evidences, different conclusions can be
drawn depending on the decision-maker’s background and knowledge structure, and
(2) econometric tools, which are widely used in testing hypotheses, are all, without
any exception, constrained by their, respectively, strict requirements.
Summing up the discussions in the previous paragraphs, the issue this book
attempts to address is how to
Develop a general theory of managerial decision-making in a similar fashion as that is
commonly the approach used in mathematics and natural science.

That is, on the basis of a few elementary postulates, general conclusions are derived
through logic reasoning on the intuition of a playground that is appropriate for us to
imagine how organizations evolve and interact with each other. Considering the fact
that the concept of systems is the right tool for visualizing structures and organiza-
tions, this book will employ systems science in general and the systemic yoyo model
in particular as the intuitive playground. By doing so, we are able to take individually
background-based guesswork out of the development of the theory. And because of
this very reason, all established conclusions in this book are expected to be generally
employable in real-life applications.
6 1 Facing the Challenge Holistically

1.2 The Systems Approach

Different from all branches of mathematics that are based on numerical variables,
such as calculus, differential equations, etc., and various methods of econometrics,
systems science focuses on the investigation of organizations and structures or
various kinds of systems (Lin 1999; Klir 1985). Because business entities generally
possess their, respectively, different, yet rich, internal structures, we adopt systems
science in this book as our way of intuitively seeing how business entities evolve,
respectively, and behave in their interactions with one another.
System (or organization or structure) really exists everywhere, especially in
investigations of issues related to managerial decision-making. For example, each
human being is a very complex biological system, which is made up of smaller
systems. Simultaneously, the person is also a member of many social and economic
systems, such as a family, neighborhoods, communities, etc. Each day the person
interacts with a range of various man-made systems, such as a car, an ATM machine,
retail stores, the company she works for, etc. These systems, be they natural, social,
or artificial, interact with each other constantly. So, beyond employing the concepts
of numbers and variables to investigate problems and issues of managerial decision-
making, which has been what is mostly done in the literature, we see an urgent need
to employ the concept of systems and relevant methods to study events and social
and economic processes in order to obtain brand new while practically useful
understandings and conclusions. Here, what do we mean by “urgent”? When
employing readily developed methodologies to help with managerial decision-
making, we generally use either a calculus-based method or a statistics-based tool
or a combination of both. However, any calculus-based method in essence helps
decision-makers make predictions by extrapolating the present situation (or known
as the initial value) into the future, while each statistics-based tool expands the past
trend (or known as data or anecdotes) into the future. So, if we understand manage-
rial decision-making as being more or less about predicting such a future that is
drastically different from both the present and the past, then there is an urgent need
for the theory of managerial decision-making to go beyond the capability boundaries
of the classical calculus-based methods and statistics-based tools. In other words,
after having tried various methods developed for data mining and anecdote analysis
without producing many reliable scientific conclusions, now is the time for us to go
straight to the underlying fundamental principles underneath the surface of numbers,
numerical variables, and anecdotes that can lead to scientifically sound conclusions
and practically reliable consequences.
Historically, the concept of systems has been directly or indirectly introduced by
scholars in different disciplines over the recorded history in various languages. In
order not to deviate away from our main focus here, let us look at two recent cases as
examples. In the area of economics, Rostow (1960) wrote that: “The classical theory
of production is formulated under essentially static assumptions . . . to merge clas-
sical production theory with Keynesian income analysis . . . introduced the dynamic
variables: population, technology, entrepreneurship, etc. But . . . do so in forms so
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the wash of ocean, and his too who is parted from his fellows
by the zone that lies midmost among the four, the zone of
the tyrannous sun. From the jaws of that deluge flying
over many and mighty waters, we ask of you for our
country’s gods a narrow resting-place—the harmless 30
privilege of the coast, and the common liberty of water and
air. We shall be no disgrace to your kingdom, nor light
shall be the fame that men will blaze of you, nor shall
gratitude for your great bounty grow old, nor shall
Ausonia mourn the day when she welcomed Troy to her 35
heart. I swear by Æneas’ star, by his strong right hand,
known as such by all who have proved it in friendship or
in war, many have been the peoples, many the nations—nay,
scorn us not for that we accost you with fillets of suppliance
and words of prayer—who have sued for our company
and wished to make us one with them. But the
oracles of heaven, speaking as they only can, have driven
us to search out your realms. Hence sprang Dardanus; 5
hither Apollo bids us return, with the instance of high
command, even to Tuscan Tiber and the sacred waters of
Numicius’ spring. Moreover, here are presents from Æneas,
the scanty offerings of past prosperity, relics snatched from
the flames of Troy. From this gold his father, Anchises, 10
poured libations at the altar; this was Priam’s royal
accoutrement, when he gave laws in kingly fashion to the
assembled people; this sceptre, this sacred diadem, these
robes, the work of Trojan dames.”

Thus, as Ilioneus is speaking, Latinus holds his countenance 15

in set downcast gaze, and sits rooted to his throne,
turning his eyes in intense thought. Nor does the
broidered purple stir his princely mind; no, nor the sceptre
of Priam, so deeply as he ponders on the wedlock, the
bridal bed of his daughter, revolving in his breast old 20
Faunus’ oracle. This must be that predicted son-in-law,
arrived from a foreign home, destined to reign in joint
sovereignty with himself; thence must be born that glorious
progeny, whose prowess is to master the world. At
length he breaks out in glad tones: “May the gods prosper 25
our intent and ratify their own presage! Yes, Trojan,
you shall have your prayer, nor do I reject your presents.
Long as Latinus shall reign, you shall not lack the bounty of
a fruitful soil, nor miss the wealth of Troy. Let but Æneas
himself, if his desire of us is so great, if he covets the tie of 30
hospitality and the style of alliance, come to our presence,
nor shrink from eyes that will view him kindly. Peace
will be incomplete till I have touched your monarch’s
hand. And now do you take back to your king this my
message: I have a daughter, whose marriage with a husband 35
of our nation is forbidden by voices from my father’s
shrine, by countless prodigies from heaven; sons-in-law
are to arrive from foreign climes—such, they say, is
Fate’s will for Latium—who by mixing their blood with
ours are to exalt our name to the spheres. That he is this
chosen one of destiny is my belief, and, if my mind reads
the future true, my award.” With these words the old
king makes choice of horses from the multitude he possessed. 5
Three hundred there were, sleek-coated, standing
in their lofty stalls. At once he bids his servants
bring for each of the Teucrians a fleet-foot with housings
of embroidered purple; golden poitrels hang down to the
chest of each; there is gold on their coverings; yellow 10
gold under their champing teeth. For the absent Æneas
he orders a car and two coursers of ethereal seed, snorting
fire from their nostrils, sprung of that brood which artful
Circe raised up fraudfully to her father the Sun, a spurious
race, from the womb of a mortal dam. Thus graced with 15
gifts and kind speeches, the children of Æneas journey
homeward on their tall steeds, and carry tidings of peace.

Meanwhile, there was Jove’s relentless spouse travelling

back from her own Argos, city of Inachus, and already
launched on mid air; looking from the sky over Sicilian 20
Pachynus, she beheld in distant prospect Æneas in his
hour of joy and the Dardan fleet. Already she sees him
building his home; already he has made the soil his friend,
and has parted from his ships. Pierced with bitter grief,
she stayed her course, and then, shaking her head, pours 25
from her heart words like these: “Ah, that hated stock!
those destinies of Phrygia that hold my destinies in check!
Did the dead really fall on the plains of Sigeum? were the
captives captured in truth? did the flames of Troy burn
the men of Troy? Through the heart of the battle, 30
through the heart of the fire they have found a way.
Ay, belike, my power at last lies gasping and spent; my
hatred is slaked and I am at peace. I, who followed them
with a foe’s zeal over the water even when tossed from
their country’s arms, and met the exiles front to front on 35
every sea! Spent on these Teucrians is all that sky and
surge can do. Have Syrtes, has Scylla, has Charybdis’
yawning gulf stood me aught in stead? They have
gained the channel of Tiber, the haven of their wishes,
and may laugh at ocean and at me. Mars had strength to
destroy the Lapithan nation, huge as they were; the father
of the gods gave up the honoured land of Calydon to Diana’s
vengeance; and what had Lapithans or Calydon done 5
to earn such penal ruin? But I, Jove’s great consort,
who have stooped, miserably stooped, to leave nothing
untried, who have assumed every form by turns, am vanquished
by Æneas. Well, if my power be not august
enough, I would not shrink from suing for other aid, be it 10
found where it may; if I cannot prevail above, I will stir
up the fiends of the deep. It will not be mine to keep him
from the crown of Latium—be it so; fixed for him by fate
unalterably is his bride Lavinia; but delays and impediments
may well be where the matter is so great; but to 15
cut off the subjects of our two monarchs—this may be
done. So let father and son-in-law embrace, at the cost
of their people’s lives. The blood of Trojan and Rutulian
shall be your dower, fair lady; Bellona[243] is waiting to lead
you to your chamber. Nor is Hecuba the only mother that 20
has teemed with a fire-brand and given birth to a nuptial
blaze; Venus sees the tale repeated in her own offspring—a
second Paris—a funeral torch rekindled for reviving
Troy.”

Having vented words like these, she flew down in black 25

rage to the earth; and now she summons Allecto[244] the baleful
from the dwelling of the dread goddesses and the darkness
of the pit—Allecto, whom bitter wars, and strifes,
and stratagems, and injurious crimes cheer like a cordial.
Hateful even to Pluto her sire is the fiend, hateful to her 30
Tartarean sisters, so many the forms she puts on, so terrible
the mien of each, so countless the vipers that burgeon
blackly from her head. Her, thus dreadful, Juno lashes
to fiercer fury, speaking on this wise: “Grant me, maiden
daughter of Night, a boon all my own—thine undivided 35
aid, that my praise and renown may not be dashed from
their pedestal—that the children of Æneas may not be
able to ensnare Latinus in a bridal alliance or beset the
Italian frontier. Thou canst make brothers of one soul
take arms and fight; canst make peaceful homes dens of
strife; thou canst gain entrance for the scourge and the
funeral torch: thou hast a thousand names, a thousand
means of ill. Stir up that prolific bosom, snap the formed 5
bands of peace, scatter the incentives of war, let the nation
in the same moment desire, demand, and seize the sword.”

So then Allecto, empoisoned with Gorgon venom, first

repairs to Latium and the lofty halls of the Laurentine
monarch, and sits down before the hushed chamber of 10
queen Amata,[245] who, as she mused on the arrival of the
Trojans and Turnus’ bridal hopes, was glowing and seething
with all a woman’s passion, a woman’s spleen. Snatching
a snake from her dark venomed locks, she hurls it at
her, and lodges it in the bosom close to the very heart, that, 15
maddened by the pest, she may drive the whole house wild.
In glides the reptile unfelt, winding between the robe and
the marble breast, and beguiles her into frenzy, breathing
into her lungs its viperous breath; the linked gold round
her neck turns to the monstrous serpent; so does the festoon 20
of her long fillet; it twines her hair, it slides smoothly
from limb to limb. And while the first access of contagion,
stealing in with clammy poison, is pervading her senses
and threading her bones with flame, ere yet the soul has
caught fire through the whole compass of the bosom, she 25
speaks with gentle plaint, as mothers wont, shedding
many tears over her child and the Phrygian alliance: “And
are fugitives from Troy to take Lavinia in marriage, good
father? have you no compassion for your daughter and
yourself? none for her mother, whom with the first fair 30
gale the faithless pirate will leave and make for the deep,
carrying off his maiden prey? Ay, things were not so
when the Phrygian shepherd stole into Lacedæmon, and
bore away Leda’s Helen to Troy town. Where is your
pledged faith? where your old tenderness for your own 35
blood, and your hand plighted so oft to your kinsman
Turnus? If Latian folk must have a son-in-law fetched
from a foreign stock, and this is unalterably fixed, and
your father Faunus’ command sits heavy on your soul, I
hold that every nation is foreign whose independence
severs it from our rule, and that such is Heaven’s intent.
Turnus, too, if you go back to the first foundation of his
house, has Inachus and Acrisius for his ancestors, and the 5
heart of Mycenæ for his home.” But when, having tried
in vain what these words can do, she sees Latinus obstinately
bent, and meantime the serpent’s fiendish mischief
has sunk deep into her vitals, and is thrilling every
vein, then at last the miserable queen, unsexed by the 10
portentous enormity, raves in ungoverned frenzy through
the city’s length and breadth; as oft you may see a top
spinning under the lash, which boys are flogging round
and round in a great ring in an empty courtyard, with
every thought on their game: driven by the whip it 15
keeps making circle after circle: the beardless faces
hang over it in puzzled wonder, marvelling how the box-wood
can fly, as though the blows made it a living thing.
With motion as furious she courses through crowded
streets and unruly peoples. Nay, more than this, she 20
feigns the inspiration of Bacchus, nerving herself to more
atrocious deeds, and climbing new heights of madness—flies
into the woods, and hides her daughter among the
leafy hills, all to snatch from the Teucrians the bridal
bed and delay the kindling of Hymen’s torch. “Evoe 25
Bacchus!” is her cry; “thou, and none but thou art
fit mate for a maid like this. See! for thee she takes up
the sacred wand, for thee she leads the dance, for thee she
grows her dedicated hair.” Fame flies abroad; other
mothers are instinct with frenzy, and all have the same 30
mad passion driving them to seek a new home. They
have left their houses, and are spreading hair and shoulders
to the wind; while some are filling the sky with quivering
shrieks, clad in fawn-skins, and carrying vine-branch
spears. There in the middle is the queen all aglow, lifting 35
high a blazing pine, and singing the bridal song of Turnus
and her daughter, her eye red and glaring; and sudden she
shouts like a savage: “Ho! mothers of Latium all, where’er
ye be, if ye have human hearts and kindness left there for
poor Amata, if ye are stung to think of a mother’s rights,
off with the fillets from your hair, and join the orgie with
me.” Such is the queen, driven among the woods, among
the wild beasts’ lairs far and wide, by Bacchus’ goad in 5
Allecto’s hand.

And now, judging that she had barbed enough the

young fangs of frenzy, upheaving from their bases the
royal purpose and the royal house, the grim goddess next
soars in air on her murky wings on to the walls of the bold 10
Rutulian, the city which they say Danae built for her Argive
settlers, landing there under stress of wind. Ardea
was the name which past generations gave the place, and
Ardea still keeps her august title; but her star is set,
Here, in his lofty palace, Turnus at deep of night was in 15
the midst of his sleep. Allecto puts off her hideous features
and her fiendish shape, transforms herself to an old
woman’s countenance and furrows her loathly brow
with wrinkles, assumes hoary locks and woollen fillet,
lastly twines them with an olive spray, and so becomes 20
Calybe, the aged priestess of Juno’s temple; and presents
herself to the young warrior’s eyes with such words as
these: “And can Turnus calmly see all his toils poured out
in vain, and the crown that is his own transferred to settlers
from Dardania? See, the king is refusing you your bride 25
and your blood-bought dowry, and search is being made for
a foreign heir to fill the throne. Go on now, confront ungracious
perils, and earn derision; go, mow down the
Tuscan ranks, and spread over Latium the shield of peace.
These very words Saturn’s almighty daughter with her 30
own lips bade me say to you when you should be slumbering
in the still of night. Rise, then, bid your soldiery arm
and move from city to camp, set fire to the Phrygian
chiefs who have anchored in our fair river and to their
painted ships. The dread voice of heaven speaks by me, 35
Nay, let king Latinus, unless he consent to give you your
bride and respect his promise, feel at last and find what
it is to have Turnus for a foe.”

Laughing scornfully at the old seer, the youth thus spoke

in reply: “The news that a fleet has arrived in the Tiber
has not, as you imagine, escaped my ear. Conjure me
no such mighty terrors, nor think that queen Juno has forgotten
me. No, it is you, good mother, whom mouldering 5
dotage, drained dry of truth, is vexing to no end, mocking
your prophetic soul with false alarms in an atmosphere of
royal armaments. You are in your place watching over
statues and temples; but war and peace must be wielded
by men, whose work war is.” 10

At these words Allecto kindled into wrath. Even in

the act of speaking a shudder seized the youth’s frame and
his eyes grew stiff and stony, so fierce the hissing of the
Fury’s thousand snakes, so monstrous the features that
rose on his view. Instant with a roll of her fiery orbs she 15
thrust him back as he faltered and tried to speak further;
on either brow she upreared a serpent lock, and cracked her
whip, and with infuriate lips followed thus: “Here is the
mouldering mother, whom dotage, drained dry of truth, is
mocking with false alarms in an atmosphere of royal armaments. 20
Turn your eyes hither; I am come from the dwelling
of the Dread Sisters: war and death are wielded by
this hand.”

Saying thus, she hurled a torch full at the youth, and

lodged in his breast the pine-wood with its lurid smoke and 25
glare. The bonds of sleep are broken by the giant terror,
and a burst of sweat all over bathes the whole man, bone
and limb. “My sword!” he screams in frenzy; for his
sword he searches pillow and palace: the fever of the steel,
the guilty madness of bloodshed rage within him, and angry 30
pride tops all: even as when loud-crackling a fire of sticks
is heaped round the sides of a waving caldron, and the
heat makes the water start; there within is the flood,
steaming and storming, and bubbling high in froth, till at
last the wave cannot contain itself, and the black vapour 35
flies up into the air. So then, trampling on treaties, he
gives the word to the chiefs of his soldiery for a march
upon King Latinus, and bids arms be got ready. Italy
must be protected, the foe must be driven from the frontier;
he and his men will be enough for both, Teucrians and
Latians. So he says and appeals to Heaven: and the
Rutulians with emulous zeal encourage each other to
the fight. This one is fired by his leader’s peerless beauty 5
and youth; this by the kings in his pedigree; this by the
glorious deeds of his hand.

While Turnus is filling the Rutulians with the spirit of

daring, Allecto is putting her infernal wings in motion
against the Teucrians. A new device working in her 10
mind, she fixed her eye on the spot where on the winding
coast Iulus was hunting game with the snare and the
course. Hereon the maiden of Cocytus suddenly presents
to the hounds a maddening lure, and touches their nostrils
with the scent they know so well, making them chase a 15
stag in full cry; which was the first origin of the trouble,
and put the spark of war to the spirit of the countryside.
There was a stag of beauteous form and lofty horns,
taken by the sons of Tyrrheus from its mother’s breast,
and brought up by them and their father Tyrrheus, 20
who had the control of the royal herds and the charge of
the whole range of lawn. Trained to obey, it was the
chief care of their sister Silvia; she would deck and
wreathe its horns with delicate festoons, and comb its
rough coat, and wash it in the clear stream. Grown tame 25
to the hand, and accustomed to its master’s table, it would
run free in the forest and take itself back home to the
well-known door, however late the night. Now, in one
of its wanderings the maddened hounds of Iulus started
it in the hunt, as it happened to be floating down the 30
stream or allaying its heat on the verdant bank. Ascanius
himself, fired with a proud ambition, bent his bow and
levelled a shaft: nor did his hand err for want of heavenly
aid: the reed sped with a loud hurtling sound and pierced
the belly and the flank. The wounded creature took refuge 35
under the roof it knew, and moaning crept into its
stall, and bleeding all over filled, like a human suppliant,
the house with its piteous plaints. Sister Silvia first,
smiting on her arms with her flat hands, calls for help and
summons the rough country folk. They—for the fell
fiend is lurking in the silence of the forest—are at her
side ere she looks for them, armed one with a seared brand,
one with a heavy knotted stock: what each first finds as he 5
gropes about, anger makes do weapon’s service. Tyrrheus
musters the company, just as the news found him, splitting
an oak in four with convergent wedges, catching up an
axe and breathing savage rage. But the cruel goddess,
seizing from her watch-tower the moment of mischief, 10
makes for the stall’s lofty roof, and from its summit
shrills forth the shepherd’s clarion, pitching high on the
wreathen horn her Tartarean note; at the sound the
whole line of forest was convulsed, and the woods echoed
to their depths: it was heard far off by Trivia’s[246] lake, 15
heard by river Nar[246] with his whitening sulphurous waters,
and by the springs of the Veline[246]: and terror-stricken
mothers clasped their children to their breasts.

At once running to the sound with which the dread

clarion gave the signal, the untamed rustics snatch up 20
their weapons and gather from all sides; while the forces
of Troy, on their part, pour through the camp’s open gates
their succour for Ascanius. It is no longer a woodman’s
quarrel waged with heavy clubs or seared stakes; they try
the issue with two-edged steel; a dark harvest of drawn 25
swords bristles over the field; the brass shines responsive
to the sun’s challenge, and flings its radiance skyward; as
when the wave has begun to whiten under the rising wind,
the ocean gradually upheaves itself, and raises its billows
higher and higher, till at last, from its lowest depths, it 30
mounts up to heaven. See! as the arrow whizzes, a young
warrior in the first rank, once Tyrrheus’ eldest born, Almo,
is laid low in death; for the wound has lodged in his
throat, and has cut off, with the rush of blood, the passage
of the liquid voice and the vital breath. Round him lie 35
many gallant frames, and among them old Galæsus, while
throwing himself between the armies and pleading for
peace; none so just as he, none so wealthy before to-day in
Ausonian land; five flocks of sheep had he, five herds of
oxen went to and fro from his stalls, and his land was
furrowed by a hundred ploughs.

While thus on the plains the impartial war-god deals out

fortune, the goddess, having achieved her promise, soon 5
as she had inaugurated the war with blood, and brought
the battle to its first murderous shock, flies from Hesperia,
and rounding the cope of heaven, addresses Juno in the
haughty tones of triumph: “See here the work of discord
complete in the horrors of war! Now bid them come together 10
in friendship and strike truce. Thou hast seen that
I can sprinkle the Trojans with Ausonian blood; let me
but be assured of thy wish, I will give thee a further boon:
I will sew rumours and bring the neighbouring cities into
the war, and inflame their souls with mad martial passion 15
to crowd from all sides with succour; I will scatter arms
broadcast.” Juno returns: “There is panic and treachery
enough; the seeds of war are sown deep; men are fighting
hand to hand; the weapons which chance first supplied
are being seasoned with new-spilt blood. Such be the 20
alliance, such the nuptial rites solemnized by Venus’
virtuous son and good king Latinus. For thee to walk the
upper air with larger freedom would displease the great
Father, the monarch of high Olympus. Give place; should
any chance emerge in the struggle, myself will deal with it.” 25
So spoke Saturn’s daughter: the Fury lifts her wings that
hurtle with serpent plumage, and seeks her home in Cocytus,
leaving the altitudes above. There is a place in the
bosom of Italy, under the shadow of lofty hills, known to
fame and celebrated in far-off lands, the vale of Amsanctus; 30
pent between two woody slopes, dark with dense foliage,
while at the bottom a broken torrent makes a roaring
among the rocks along its winding bed. Here men show
an awful cavern, the very gorge of the fell infernal god, and
a deep gulf through which Acheron breaks open its baleful 35
mouth: there dived the Fury, and relieved of her loathed
presence earth and heaven.

Meanwhile, for her part, Saturn’s royal daughter gives

the last touch that brings down the war. From the battle-field
there pours into the city the whole company of shepherds,
with their slain in their arms, young Almo and
Galæsus’ disfigured countenance, calling on the gods and
adjuring Latinus. Turnus is on the spot, and, in the fury 5
and fire of the blood-cry, sounds again and again the note
of terror: “The Teucrians are invited to reign in Latium;
a Phrygian shoot is to be grafted on the royal tree; the
palace-gate is closed on himself.” Moreover, the kinsmen
of the matrons, who in Bacchic madness are footing the 10
pathless woods—for Amata’s name weighs not lightly—muster
from all sides, and strain the throat of Mars to
hoarseness. All at once, defying omens and oracles,
under the spell of a cursed deity, they clamour for an
atrocious war. With emulous zeal they swarm round 15
Latinus’ palace; he, like a rock in the sea, stands unshaken;
like a rock in the sea before the rush and crash of waters,
which, amid, thousands of barking waves, is fixed by its
own weight; the crags and the spray-foamed stones
roar about it in vain, and the lashed seaweed falls idly 20
from its side. But when he finds no power given him to
counterwork the secret agency, and all is moving at relentless
Juno’s beck, then with many an appeal to the gods
and the soulless skies, “Alas!” exclaims the good sire,
“shattered are we by destiny and whirled before the storm! 25
On you will come the reckoning, and your impious blood
will pay it, my wretched children! You, Turnus, you will
be met by your crime and its fearful vengeance, in a day
when it will be too late to pray to Heaven. For me, my
rest is assured; my ship is just dropping into port; it is 30
but of a happy departure that I am robbed.” No more
he spoke, but shut himself in an inner chamber, and let
the reins of empire go.

A custom there was in the Hesperian days of Latium,

observed as sacred in succession by the Alban cities, and 35
now honoured by the observance of Rome, the greatest
power on earth, when men first stir up the war-god to
battle, whether their purpose be to carry piteous war
among the Getæ, the Hyrcanians, or the Arabs, or to
march as far as India, track the Morning-star to its home,
and wrest the standards from the grasp of Parthia.
There are two folding-gates of War—such the title they
bear—clothed with religious awe and with the terrors of 5
Mars the cruel: they are closed by a hundred brazen bars
and by the everlasting strength of iron, and Janus[247] never
quits his guard on the threshold. When the fathers finally
conclude for battle, the consul himself, in the pride of
Quirinus’ striped robe and the Gabine[248] cincture, unbars the 10
grating portals, and with his own voice invokes battle;
the rest of the warriors take up the cry, and brazen horns
blare out in unison their hoarse assent. Thus it was that
then, too, Latinus was urged to declare war against the
family of Æneas and to unclose the grim gates. The good 15
old king recoiled from the touch, turned with averted eyes
from the service he loathed, and shrouded himself in impenetrable
gloom. Then darted down from the sky the
queen of heaven, smote with her own royal hand the unwilling
portals, and from their bursten fastenings, as Saturn’s 20
daughter might, flung back the valves on their hinges.
All Ausonia, sluggish and moveless till then, blazes into
fury; some commence their footmarch over the plain,
some from the height of their steeds storm through the
dust; one and all cry out for arms. Some are rubbing their 25
shields smooth and their javelins bright with unctuous
lard, and putting their axes under the grindstone; there
is joy in the carrying of the standard, joy in the hearing
of the trumpet’s sound. And now there are five great
cities with anvils everywhere set up, giving a new edge to 30
their weapons: Atina the mighty and Tibur the proud,
Ardea, and they of Crustumium, and tower-crowned
Antemnæ. Helmets are hollowed to guard the head;
willows are twisted into wicker frames for shields; others
are beating out brass into breastplates, or stretching ductile 35
silver into polished greaves. All the pride of sickle
and share, all the passion for the plough are swallowed
up in this; they bring out their father’s swords, and smelt
them anew in the furnace. Here, in wild haste, is one
snatching his helm from the chamber-wall; there is another
bringing his snorting steeds to the yoke, clothing
himself with shield and corslet of three-plied gold, and
girding to his side his trusty sword. 5
[F][249]Now, Muses, ope your Helicon,
The gates of song unfold,
What chiefs, what tribes to war came on
In those dim days of old,
What sons were then Italia’s pride, 10
And what the arms that blazed so wide:
For ye are goddesses: full well
Your mind takes note, your tongue can tell:
The far-off whisper of the years
Scarce reaches our bewildered ears. 15
Mezentius first from Tyrrhene coast,
Who mocks at heaven, arrays his host,
And braves the battle’s storm:
His son, young Lausus, at his side,
Excelled by none in beauty’s pride, 20
Save Turnus’ comely form:
Lausus, the tamer of the steed,
The conqueror of the silvan breed,
Leads from Agylla’s towers in vain
A thousand youths, a valiant train: 25
Ah happy, had the son been blest
In harkening to his sire’s behest,
Or had the sire from whom he came
Had other nature, other name!

Next drives along the grassy meads 30

His palm-crowned car and conquering steeds
Fair Aventinus, princely heir
Of Hercules the brave and fair,
And for his proud escutcheon takes
His father’s Hydra and her snakes. 35
’Twas he that priestess Rhea bare,
A stealthy birth, to upper air,
’Mid shades of woody Aventine
Mingling her own with heavenly blood,
When triumph-flushed from Geryon slain
Aleides touched the Latian plain,
And bathed Iberia’s distant kine
In Tuscan Tiber’s flood. 5
Long pikes and poles his bands uprear,
The shapely blade, the Sabine spear.
Himself on foot, with lion’s skin,
Whose long white teeth with ghastly grin
Clasp like a helmet brow and chin, 10
Joins the proud chiefs in rude attire,
And flaunts the emblem of his sire.
From Tiber’s walls twin brothers came,
The town that bears Tiburtus’ name,
Bold Coras and Catillus strong: 15
Through the thick-rained darts they storm along,
And foremost in the fray:
As when two cloud-born Centaurs leap
Down Homole or Othrys’ steep,
The forest parts before their sweep, 20
And crashing trees give way.

Nor lacked there to the embattled power

The founder of Præneste’s tower,
Brave Cæculus, by all renowned
As Vulcan’s son, ’mid embers found 25
And monarch of the rustics crowned.
Beneath him march his rural train,
Whom high Præneste’s walls contain,
Who dwell in Gabian Juno’s plain,
Whose haunt is Anio’s chilly flood 30
And Hernic rocks, by streams bedewed,
Who till Anagnia’s bosom green
Or drink of father Amasene.
Not all are furnished for the war
With ample shield or sounding car. 35
Some sling lead bullets o’er the field,
Some javelins twain in combat wield.
A cap of fur protects their head
By spoil of tawny wolf supplied;
Their left foot bare, on earth they tread, 40
The right is cased in raw bull-hide.
Messapus, tamer of the steed,
The Ocean-monarch’s mighty seed,
Whom none might harm, so willed his sire,
With force of iron or of fire,
Awakes his people’s slumbering zeal 5
Long time unused to war’s appeal,
And from the scabbard bares the steel.
With him Fescennia’s armed train,
The dwellers in Falerii’s plain,
Who hold Soracte’s lofty hill 10
Or fair Flavinia’s cornland till,
Capena’s woods their dwelling make
Or Ciminus, its mount and lake.
With measured pace they march along,
And make their monarch’s deeds their song; 15
Like snow-white swans in liquid air,
When homeward from their food they fare,
And far and wide melodious notes
Come rippling from their slender throats,
While the broad stream and Asia’s fen 20
Reverberate to the sound again.
Sure none had thought that countless crowd
A mail-clad company;
It rather seemed a dusky cloud
Of migrant fowl, that, hoarse and loud, 25
Press landward from the sea.

Lo! Clausus there, the Sabines’ boast,

Leads a great host, himself a host;
Whence spreads the Claudian race, since Rome
With Sabine burghers shared her home. 30
With him the Amiternians came
And Cures’ sons of ancient name,
The squadron that Eretum guards
And green Mutusca’s olive-yards.
Those whom Nomentum’s city yields, 35
Who till Velinus’ Rosean fields,
Who Tetrica’s rude summit climb
Or on Severus sits sublime,
Or dwell where runs Hemella by
Casperia’s walls and Foruli, 40
Who Tiber haunt and Fabaris’ banks,
Whom Nursia sends to battle down
From her cold home, Hortinian ranks
And Latian tribes of old renown,
With those whom Allia’s stream ill-starred
Flows through, dividing sward from sward: 5
Thick as the Libyan billows swarm
When fell Orion sets in storm,
Or as the sun-baked ears of grain
In Hæmus’ field or Lycia’s plain;
Their bucklers rattle, and the ground 10
Quakes, startled by their footfall’s sound.

Halæsus, Agamemnon’s mate,

Who hates all Troy with liegeman’s hate,
Yokes his swift horses to the car,
And brings his hosts to Turnus’ war, 15
The rustic tribes whose ploughshare tills
The vine-clad slopes of Massic hills,
Sent from Auruncan heights, or bound
From Sidicinian champaign-ground,
Who fertile Cales leave behind 20
Or where Vulturnian waters wind,
Saticule’s tenants, rough and rude,
And all the hardy Oscan brood.
Spiked truncheons they are wont to fling,
But fit them with a leathern string: 25
A target shields the good left hand,
And curved like primer’s hook the brand
They wield when foot to foot they stand.

Nor, Œbalus, shalt thou pass by

Unnamed in this our minstrelsy, 30
Born to old Telon, Capreæ’s king,
By Naiad of Sebethus’ spring;
The son contemned his sire’s domain,
And stretched o’er neighbouring lands his reign.
Sarrastes’ tribes his rule obey, 35
And fields where Sarnus’ waters play,
Who Batulum and Rufræ hold
Or till Celennæ’s fruitful mould,
Or those whom fair Abella sees
Down-looking through her apple-trees, 40
All wont in Teuton sort to throw
Nail-studded maces ’gainst the foe;
Their helm of bark from cork-tree peeled,
Of brass their sword, of brass their shield.

Thee too steep Nersæ sends to war 5

Brave Ufens, born ’neath happy star:
Hard as their clods the Æquian race,
Inured to labour in the chase;
In armour sheathed, they till their soil,
Heap foray up, and live by spoil. 10

Came too from old Marruvia’s realm,

An olive-garland round his helm,
Bold Umbro, priest at once and knight,
By king Archippus sent to fight;
Who baleful serpents knew to steep 15
By hand and voice in charmed sleep,
Soothed their fierce wrath with subtlest skill,
And from their bite drew off the ill.
But ah! his medicines could not heal
The death-wound dealt by Dardan steel; 20
His slumberous charms availed him nought,
Nor herbs on Marsian mountains sought
And cropped with magic shears;
For thee Anguitia’s woody cave,
For thee the glassy Fucine wave, 25
For thee the lake shed tears.

From green Aricia, bent on fame,

Hippolytus’ fair offspring came,
In lone Egeria’s forest reared,
Where Dian’s shrine is loved and feared. 30
For lost Hippolytus,’tis said,
By cruel stepdame’s cunning dead,
Dragged by his frightened steeds, to sate
His angry sire’s vindictive hate,
Was called once more to realms above, 35
By Pæon’s skill and Dian’s love.
Then Jove incensed that man should rise
From darkness to the upper skies,
The leech that wrought such healing hurled
With lightening down to Pluto’s world. 40
But Trivia kind her favourite hides
And to Egeria’s care confides,
To live in woods obscure and lone,
And lose in Virbius’ name his own.
’Tis thence e’en now from Trivia’s shrine 5
The horn-hoofed steeds are chased,
Since, scared by monsters of the brine,
The chariot and the youth divine
They tumbled on the waste,
Yet ne’ertheless with horse and car 10
His dauntless son essays the war.
 In foremost rank see Turnus move,
His comely head the rest above:
On his tall helm the triple cone
Chimæra in relief is shown; 15
The monster’s gaping jaws expire
Hot volumes of Ætnæan fire:
And still she flames and raves the more
The deeper floats the field with gore.
With bristling hide and lifted horns 20
So, all gold, his shield adorns,
E’en as in life she stood;
There too is Argus, warder stern,
And Inachus from graven urn,
Her father, pours his flood. 25
A cloud of footmen at his back
And shielded hosts the plain made black;
Auruncans, Argives, brave and bold,
Rutulians and Sicanians old,
Sacranians thirsting for the field, 30
Labici with enamelled shield;
Who Tiber’s lawns with furrow score
And pure Numicius’ sacred shore,
Subdue Rutulian slopes, and plough
Circeius’ steep reluctant brow: 35
Where Anxur boasts her guardian Jove
And greenly blooms Feronia’s grove;
Where Satura’s unlovely mere
In sullen quiet sleeps,
And Ufens gropes through marshland drear 40
And hides him in the deeps.
Last marches forth for Latium’s sake
Camilla fair, the Volscian maid,
A troop of horsemen in her wake
In pomp of gleaming steel arrayed;
Stern warrior queen! those tender hands 5
Ne’er plied Minerva’s ministries:
A virgin in the fight she stands,