Permutations

•Suppose we have a horse race with 8 horses:

A,B,C,D,E,F,G, and H.
•We would like to know how many possible
arrangements we can have for the 1st, 2nd, & 3rd
place horses.
•One possibility would be G D F.
(F D G would be a different possibility because order
matters here.)
• We have 8 possible horses we can pick for 1st
place.
• Once we have the 1st place horse, we have 7
possibilities for the 2nd place horse.
• Then we have 6 possibilities for the 3rd place
horse.
• So we have 8 • 7 • 6 = 336 possibilities.
• This is the number of permutations of 8 objects
(horses in this case), taken 3 at a time.
How many possible arrangements of
all the horses are there?
In other words, how many permutations are
there of 8 objects taken 8 at a time?

• 8 • 7 • 6 • 5 • 4 • 3 • 2 • 1 = 40,320
• This is 8 factorial or 8!
 We’d like to develop a general formula for
the number of permutations
of n objects taken k at a time.
• Let’s work with our horse example of 8 horses taken
3 at a time.
• The number of permutations was 8 • 7 • 6.
We can multiply our answer (8 • 7 • 6) by 1
& still have the same answer.
5  4  3  2 1
= 1
5  4  3  2 1

Multiplying we have
 5  4  3  2 1
8  7  6 = 8  7  6  
 5  4  3  2 1

8  7  6  5  4  3  2 1 8!
= =
5  4  3  2 1 5!

• Note that this is 8!

(8 − 3) !
So the number of permutations of n
objects taken r at a time is

n!
P =
(n − r )!
n r
 Counting rules
▪ The factorial
▪ The number of ways in which ‘r’ objects can be
arranged in a row, without replacement.
▪ r! = r×(r – 1)×(r – 2)× …×3×2×1
▪ Note r! = 0! = 1
▪ Example
▪ Six athletes compete in a race. The number of
order arrangements for completing the race.
▪ 6! = 720 different ways

8
 Counting rules
▪ Combination
▪ Select r objects without replacement from a larger
set of n objects, order of selection not important.
n!
n Cr =
▪
r !(n − r )!
▪ Example
▪ Six lotto numbers should be selected form a
possible 49 – order of selection not important.
49!
▪ n Cr = 49 C6 = = 13 983 816
6!(49 − 6)!
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 Counting rules
▪ Permutation
▪ Select r objects without replacement from a larger
set of n objects, order of selection is important.
▪ n!
n Pr =
(n − r )!
▪ Example
▪ Six athletes in a race, how many ways to
compete for the gold, silver and bronze medals.
▪
6!
n Pr = 6 P3 = = 120
(6 − 3)!

10
The possible permutation of two letters from
{a, b, c} are:
ab, ba, ac, ca, bc, cb
where, for example, ab means a is chosen for the
first and b second.
The possible combinations are:
ab; ac; bc
where the order is irrelevant and, for example, ab
corresponds to both ab and ba above
• The number of combinations of r objects from a set
with n objects is n C r.

• For example, the combinations of {1,2,3,4} taken r

=2 at a time are

• {1,2}, {1,3}, {1,4}, {2,3}, {2,4}, {3,4}, for a total of

• 6 = 4! / [(2!)(4-2)!] subsets.
 Discrete Probability Distributions

The Binomial Experiment

• Repeated n times(trails) under identical conditions
• Each trail can result in only one out of two
outcomes
• Success – probability success p
• Failure – probability failure q = 1 – p
• Trails are independent
• Measure number of successes, x, in n trails

13
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment
Typical cases where the binomial experiment
applies:
• A coin flipped results in heads or tails
• A party wins or loses election
• An employee is male or female
• A car uses leaded, or unleaded fuel

14
Binomial Probability Distribution

◼ A fixed number of observations (trials), n

◼ e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; 20 patients; 1000 people
surveyed
◼ A binary outcome
◼ e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; disease or no
disease
◼ Generally called “success” and “failure”
◼ Probability of success is p, probability of failure is 1 – p
◼ Constant probability for each observation
◼ e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each time
we toss the coin
Example
The probability that a student that received a C in a math class goes on
to receive a C or better in their next math class is 0.1. If 5 students in a
class receive C's, find the probability that 3 of them go on to receive a C
or better in their next math class.
Solution

• Solution
• n = 5 and p = 0.1, so we can use the table.
• The tables tell us the probability is 0.008, we calculated it to be
0.0081.
Tables of the Binomial Cumulative Distribution
n=5

X .05 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 .95
0 .774 .590 .328 .168 .078 .031 .010 .002 .000 .000 .000
1 .204 .328 .410 .360 .259 .156 .077 .028 .006 .000 .000
2 .021 .073 .205 .309 .346 .312 .230 .132 .051 .008 .001
3 .001 .008 .051 .132 .230 .312 .346 .309 .205 .073 .021
4 .000 .000 .006 .028 .077 .156 .259 .360 .410 .328 .204
5 .000 .000 .000 .002 .010 .031 .078 .168 .328 .590 .774
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment
Calculating the Binomial Probability
Determining x successes in n trails:
P (X = x) = P (x) = n
x
Cxp q n-x

where, n = number of trails

p = probability of a success
q = probability of a failure
x = number of successes
n!
n Cx =
x !( n - x )! 19
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• 10% of students are late for the early morning class
• In a sample of 5 students, find the probability
distribution of the number students that are late

Are the conditions required for the binomial experiment met?

• Repeated n = 5 times
• Each trail can result in only one out of two outcomes
• Success – late for class → p = 0.10
• Failure – not late for class → q = 1 - 0.10 = 0.90
• Students are independent
20
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Let X be the binomial random variable indicating
the number of late students

Calculate the probability that three

zerostudent
one students
students
isare
late
arelate
late

P ( X = 0 ) = P ( 0 ) = 5 C 0 ( 0 .1 0 ) 0 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -0 = 0 .5 9 0 5
P ( X = 1 ) = P ( 1 ) = 5 C 1 ( 0 .1 0 ) 1 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -1 = 0 .3 2 8 1
P ( X = 2 ) = P ( 2 ) = 5 C 2 ( 0 .1 0 ) 2 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -2 = 0 .0 7 2
P ( X = 3 ) = P ( 3 ) = 5 C 3 ( 0 .1 0 ) 3 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -3 = 0 .0 0 8
P ( X = 4 ) = P ( 4 ) = 5 C 4 ( 0 .1 0 ) 4 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -4 = 0 .0 0 0 4 5
P ( X = 5 ) = P ( 5 ) = 5 C 5 ( 0 .1 0 ) 5 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -5 = 0 .0 0 0 0 1 21
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Let X be the binomial random variable indicating
the number of late students
X P(X)
P ( X = 0 ) = P ( 0 ) = 5 C 0 ( 0 .1 0 ) 0 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -0 = 0 .5 9 0 5 0 0.5905
P ( X = 1 ) = P ( 1 ) = 5 C 1 ( 0 .1 0 ) 1 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -1 = 0 .3 2 8 1 1 0.3281
P ( X = 2 ) = P ( 2 ) = 5 C 2 ( 0 .1 0 ) 2 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -2 = 0 .0 7 2 2 0.0729
P ( X = 3 ) = P ( 3 ) = 5 C 3 ( 0 .1 0 ) 3 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -3 = 0 .0 0 8 3 0.0081
P ( X = 4 ) = P ( 4 ) = 5 C 4 ( 0 .1 0 ) 4 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -4 = 0 .0 0 0 4 5 4 0.00045
P ( X = 5 ) = P ( 5 ) = 5 C 5 ( 0 .1 0 ) 5 ( 0 .9 0 ) 5 -5 = 0 .0 0 0 0 1 5 0.00001
∑P(X) ≈ 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Calculate the probability that 2 or less students will
be late
X P(X)
P(X ≤ 2) 0 0.5905
= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) 1 0.3281
2 0.0729
= 0.5905 + 0.3281 + 0.0729
3 0.0081
= 0.9915 4 0.00045
5 0.00001
∑P(X) ≈ 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Calculate the probability that less than 2 students
will be late
X P(X)
P(X < 2) 0 0.5905
= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) 1 0.3281
2 0.0729
= 0.5905 + 0.3281
3 0.0081
= 0.9186 4 0.00045
5 0.00001
∑P(X) ≈ 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Calculate the probability that 4 or more than 4
students will be late
X P(X)
P(X ≥ 4) 0 0.5905
= P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) 1 0.3281
2 0.0729
= 0.00045 + 0.00001
3 0.0081
= 0.00046 4 0.00045
5 0.00001
∑P(X) ≈ 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Calculate the probability that more than 4 students
will be late
X P(X)
P(X > 4) 0 0.5905
= P(X = 5) 1 0.3281
2 0.0729
= 0.00001
3 0.0081
4 0.00045
5 0.00001
∑P(X) ≈ 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Calculate the probability that 3 or more students
will be late
X P(X)
P(X ≥ 3) 0 0.5905
= P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) 1 0.3281
= 0.00856 OR 2 0.0729
3 0.0081
= 1 – P(X ≤ 2)
4 0.00045
= 1 – 0.9915 5 0.00001
= 0.0085 ∑P(X) ≈ 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example
• Calculate the probability that more than 3 students
will be late
X P(X)
P(X > 3) 0 0.5905
= P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) 1 0.3281
= 0.00046 OR 2 0.0729
3 0.0081
= 1 – P(X ≤ 3)
4 0.00045
= 1 – 0.9996 5 0.00001
= 0.0004 ∑P(X) ≈ 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment
• Mean and standard deviation of binomial
random variable

 = E ( X ) = np

 =  = Var ( X ) = npq
2

29
 Discrete Probability Distributions
The Binomial Experiment - Example

– What is the expected number of students that come

late?

 = E ( X ) = np = 5(0.10) = 0.5

– What is the standard deviation for the number of

students who come late?

 =  = Var ( X ) = npq = 5(0.10)(0.90) = 0.67

2

30
Tutorial
The probability that a letter will be delivered anywhere in California in
2 days or less is 0.84. If a college graduate is sending job applications to
5 colleges, and they are all due in 2 days,
a) find the probability that 4 arrive within 2 days.
b) Find the probability that less than four arrive within 2 days
Solution
• Success : Letter arrives within 2 days.
• Failure : Letter does not arrive within 2 days.
• Probability of Success : p = 0.84
• Probability of Failure : 1 - p = 0.16
• Number of Trials : n = 5
• Number of Successes : x = 4
• We must use the formula here, since p = 0.84 does not show up in the tables.