Tom Reed (University College, Cork) Stocking and Climate Change
Tom Reed (University College, Cork) Stocking and Climate Change
Tom Reed (University College, Cork) Stocking and Climate Change
Tom Reed Beaufort Marine Research Award in Fish Population Genetics University College Cork, Ireland
Boosting salmon numbers - is stocking the answer or the problem? AST/IBIS conference
Glasgow November 2013
Talk outline
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures of climate change in salmon pop. dynamics 3. Reduced marine survival of Atlantic salmon 4. Freshwater impacts on Atlantic salmon 5. Case study of Burrishoole salmon (wild + ranched) 6. Resilience of populations and stock complexes in the
face of uncertainty
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
4. Freshwater impacts
6. Resilience
Source: http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/ocean-acidification-25822734
"This [acidification] is unprecedented in the Earth's known history. We are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change, and exposing organisms to intolerable evolutionary pressure. The next mass extinction may have already begun. From: IPSO State of the Ocean Report 2013: see http://www.stateoftheocean.org
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Source: http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/august/climate-change-speed-080113.html
MOVE
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops
ADAPT
3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts
OR DIE.
5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Source: http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/august/climate-change-speed-080113.html
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
4. Freshwater impacts
6. Resilience
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Nio
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
4. Freshwater impacts
6. Resilience
ABIOTIC/DIRECT EFFECTS
Increased energetic costs of migration Altered growth and maturation patterns Changes in food supply.
BIOTIC/INDIRECT EFFECTS
Jonsson, B., and N. Jonsson. "A review of the likely effects of climate change on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta, with particular reference to water temperature and flow." Journal of Fish Biology 75.10 (2009): 2381-2447. Crozier, L. G., et al. "Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon." Evolutionary Applications 1.2 (2008): 252-270. 1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Changes in marine productivity are associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
there may be only limited opportunities to respond to further declines through management of the fisheries, as these have already been closed or greatly reduced.
Malcolm L. Windsor, Peter Hutchinson, Lars Petter Hansen and David G. Reddin. 2012. Atlantic salmon at sea: Findings from recent research and their implications for management. NASCO document CNL(12)60. Edinburgh, UK. 20pp.
4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
Managing salmon in the face of the uncertainty about future environmental changes will be challenging. The goal should be to protect the genetic diversity of the wild Atlantic salmon in order to maximise their potential to adapt to the changing environment. Consistent with a Precautionary Approach, where there are uncertainties there is a need for caution. The absolute priority should be to conserve the productive capacity of the resource.
So managing salmon in the face of CC will realistically be all about minimising impacts in freshwater, estuarine and coastal environments, where we have more direct control.
Should stocking be a part of the repertoire of management options, or do the risks outweigh the potential benefits?
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
4. Freshwater impacts
6. Resilience
6. Resilience
Environmental change
Perfect adaptation
Increasing maladaptation
Population abundance
(of naturally spawning fish)
Time
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Environmental change
Stocking
Perfect adaptation
Increasing maladaptation
Population abundance
(of naturally spawning fish)
Time
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
The Model
Main factors determining egg
% hatchery eggs in spawning cohort (Winter temperature for eggs & fry (Winter temperature for parr (-
survival)
Future projections
ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY
STOCK COMPLEX or METAPOPULATION PRODUCTIVITY
POPULATION PRODUCTIVITY
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
4. Freshwater impacts
6. Resilience
Bristol Bay
L.A. Rogers
Wood River
Lake beaches
Age diversity
1
2 3
Small streams
L.A. Rogers
Commercial fisheries for sockeye salmon in Bristol Bay have been sustained for over 120 years
50,000,000
Togiak
45,000,000 40,000,000
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
Year
2003
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
X X
X XX
X X
XX X X X XX X X X X X XX X
X XXX
Pacific Northwest
To keep every cog and wheel is the first precaution of intelligent tinkering Aldo Leopold (Round River, 1953)
NOAA
Disease is the bullet that's killing the frogs, but climate change is pulling the trigger. Global warming is wreaking havoc on amphibians, and soon will cause staggering losses of biodiversity J. Alan Pounds 2006
Acknowledgments
IBIS/AST and the organisers Daniel Schindler (University of Washington, Seattle) for slides Phil Mc Ginnity for slides and great discussions always! Beaufort Marine Research Award in Fish Population Genetics
This Beaufort Marine Research Award is carried out under the Sea Change Strategy and the Strategy for Science Technology and Innovation (2006-2013), with the support of the Marine Institute, funded under the Marine Research Sub-Programme of the National Development Plan 20072013.
Extra slides
4.
If you are able to answer no to any one of them, you should put yourself forward for a Nobel Prize. You will have turned science on its head.
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Salmon returns to Bristol Bay are two times more reliable than the individual components of the portfolio
Bristol Bay
10
10
Age diversity
1
2 3
All the same age
10
Major rivers
10
Streams
10
0. 1
0. 1
0. 1
0. 1
0.01
0. 01
0. 01
0. 01
1
0. 01
1960
year
2010
The previous analysis was focussed at a very broad organizational scale (i.e. all salmon in the Atlantic, or N American, S European stock complexes, etc) Showed that there is this broad coherence in the responses of populations to large-scale climate drivers, but also showed differential responses of the S and N European stock complexes However, the synchronizing effects of climate can be reduced by heterogeneity in (a) the local expression of regional climate variation, (b) other extrinsic determinants of population dynamics, such as the density of predators or competitors, and (c) population traits and local adaptations which determine the sensitivity of populations to changes in their environment. While much focus has been placed on the synchronizing effects of climate, less attention has been paid to the possibility that populations may show sensitivity to different climatic drivers, even within the same geographic region or WATERSHED, due to genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity among populations and differences in the physical and biotic features of habitats that they occupy
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
4. Freshwater impacts
6. Resilience
1. Physical changes
3. Marine survival
Rogers 4. and Schindler 2008 Global Change Biology Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Nursery Lake
Alegnagik Alegnagik Alegnagik Alegnagik Nerka Nerka Nerka
Direction of effect
+ + + + +
Pick creek
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops
Nerka
3. Marine survival
+
6. Resilience
San Joaquin R
One major question then becomes whether it is better to improve production in the SJ Basin by improving the environment, which may take a long time, or through hatchery production, which may foster homogeneity among rivers. Here we argue that restoring environmental heterogeneity, which is the template that gives rise to local adaptations and diverse life history portfolios, will pay larger dividends in the long run.
Number of lakes
1 1 2 5
Direction of effect
+ +
+
-
Inclusion of fall and winter climate variables was never strongly supported, at any scale Inclusion of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) never well supported, even at level of entire Wood River system But evidence still for unexplained oscillations in productivity across years (over and above the identified climate effects)
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Modelling effects of climate change: most appropriate level of spatial complexity to consider depends on specific management, scientific, or conservation goals
Inherent trade-off:
Coarse spatial scale (e.g. entire watershed or region)
Improved generality and more confidence in detected climate effects. Ignores ecological complexity and differential responses of populations.
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival
4. Freshwater impacts
6. Resilience
La Nia
El Nio
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Nio
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Image: www.speakupforblue.com
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Source: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino/971205.html
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Its worth reflecting for a moment on what is meant by the phrase adapt to a changing environment. Intuitively, the word adapt here would seem to imply the ability of salmon to persist in a changing world, but in fact the word adaptation means something rather subtly different to an evolutionary biologist. Strictly speaking, it refers to the process whereby natural selection drives genetic changes within a population, such that genetic variants that are better fitted to the prevailing conditions increase in frequency at the expense of other, poorer adapted types. We can also broaden the definition and define adaptation at the phenotypic level, to encompass any changes in the outward characteristics of individuals such as their morphology or their behaviour, or in their internal physiological workings or patterns of development, that enhance their survival and reproductive success, or in evolutionary terms, their fitness. Such changes could be caused by underlying genetic changes or by phenotypic plasticity. But adaptation is not the same thing as persistence. A population may evolve (i.e. adapt) in response to changing environmental conditions, but go extinct in the process. At a higher level, salmon as a species or stock complexes may not go extinct, despite the loss of certain component populations. Resilience, biocomplexity etc. Genetic diversity of salmon can be considered at different levels, e.g. between stock complexes, among populations within stock complexes, and within populations. There are benefits to conserving diversity at each of these levels, but the benefits derive from quite different biological mechanisms. Within population genetic variation: grist for natural selection to do its thing. Between population/river genetic variation: increases biocomplexity, and biocomplexity increases resilience.
1. Physical changes 2. Signatures in salmon pops 3. Marine survival 4. Freshwater impacts 5. Burrishoole case study 6. Resilience
Peter Lisi
HATCHERY STOCK
HATCHERY STOCK
HATCHERY STOCK
Vasemgi et al. (2005) showed that extensive immigration of hatchery fish from one Baltic river into a neighbouring river with a wild population has homogenised the genetic structure (wild fish have become more like the hatchery fish)
will stocking also lead to loss of bio-complexity i.e. life history diversity and population-specific local adaptations??