Agricultural Marketing - Powerpoint Presentation
Agricultural Marketing - Powerpoint Presentation
Agricultural Marketing - Powerpoint Presentation
Objective
Prices: Price Behaviour, Volatility Price Transmission: Farm gate Wholesale Retail, Domestic International, Thinness of international market Consumption: Monetization of economy, Changes in diet, calorie and nutritional content Output: Composition of Output, Yield, Efficiency (NFSM), Ground Truthing Data Issues and Taxonomy for Agriculture Statistics Policy Responses to Volatility and Mitigation: Short, Medium and Long Run Supply and Demand Side, Reliance on market mechanism, Trade policy 2
Literature
11
12
13
400.0
300000
200.0
150000
0.0
WPI Onion
Export Volume
15
16
Consumption
Looking at Trends in Consumption Producer: Monetization of the rural economy, vulnerable to price volatility Consumer: Prices, Affordability, Dietary habits
17
Consumption
Inferring food security from consumption patterns (NSSO Data) Calorific content of Indias agricultural output, Food Security: Macro Household (?) (Markets, Prices, Affordability) Technology & fortification Changing patterns in domestic consumption Objective 4: Secondary data analysis using NSSO data and NNMB data to understand linkages between household occupation, poverty and nutritional value of consumption basket
18
Improving Yields
Bridging Yield Gap - Ensure access to existing technology, gaps in access & use of technology across agro climatic regions, developing new technology (shifts the production frontier collaborate with agricultural scientists) Improving Yields - Investments in agriculture and Investments for agriculture Objective 6: Use the unit level cost of cultivation (input and output) data to understand the extent to which farmers are away from the production frontier and quantify the yield gap
20
22
24
25
Deliverables
Develop a comprehensive interlinked database Taxonomy for Agricultural Statistics Knowledge Briefs - 4 Pager Discussion Papers Analytical Papers Dissemination
26
27
Recap of Objectives
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Group commodities based on their price behavior Domestic price transmission mechanism Frequency of price change Thinness of international market and its implications Linkages between household occupation, poverty and nutritional value of consumption basket 6. Debate on food-non food crop production and its impact on prices 7. The extent to which farmers are away from the production frontier and quantify the yield gap 8. State governments capex on agriculture
28
Recap of Objectives
8. Quality of investments in and investments for agriculture 9. Output elasticity of credit 10. Relate the yield gap to quality of investments in and investments for agriculture 11. Review paper on role of markets & institutions 12. Pilot study on National Food Security Mission 13. Ground Truthing Exercise 14. Online Portal 15. Taxonomy for Agricultural Statistics
29
30
Trend
Deflated prices of wheat and corn show a downward trend from 1950 to 2001 (Wright, 2011) Trends in the price series studied through the unit root analysis (Cuddington, 1992; Ghoshray, 2010) Long run trends are small as compared to the price variability (Cashin and McDermott, 2002) Decline in the trend is not gradual but takes place in installments i.e the price series have structural breaks (Zanias, 2005)
Cycles
Real commodity prices are characterised by longcycles (Hadri, 2010) Reasons for the cyclic pattern: Low elasticity of demand and supply, Speculative bubbles Commodity price cycles are characterized by shortlived booms and sharp bursts (Deaton and Laroque, 1992; Deaton, 1992) The presence of cycles create booms and busts in GDP (exports) and hence the estimates of magnitude, duration and shape of the cycle are important from the policy perspective
Cycles contd...
Cashin, McDermott and Scott (1999) date commodity prices using the Bry-Boschan business cycle algorithm and estimate the amplitude, duration and frequency of the cycle. They also examine whether the duration spent in either boom and slump affects the probability of a change in the state Price slump lasts longer than the booms (Cashin and McDermott, 2002) Labys et al. (2000) use the NBER (Moore, 1980) chronology to find the timing, frequency and amplitude of price cycle