Trip Generation: The First Step in Transportation Forecasting

TRIP GENERATION
The first step in TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING

Travel Demand Forecasting
• Travel Demand is the number of persons/vehicles
expected to travel between a particular origin and
destination via a particular route and mode of travel
over a given time period.
• Required for:
– New construction
– Expansion of existing facilities
Four-Step Travel Demand Model
• Originally developed in the 1950’s and 1960’s when
planning major highway facilities
• Four decisions are the basis of the traditional travel
demand model:
– The choice and reason to travel
– The destination to travel to
– The mode by which to travel
– The route on which to travel
Four-Step Travel Demand
1. TRIP GENERATION
 How many trips will be generated by a given location and when
will these trips occur?
2. TRIP DISTRIBUTION
 What are the origins and destinations of these trips?
3. MODE CHOICE
 Which mode of transportation will be used to make the trip?
4. TRANSPORTATION ASSIGNMENT
 Which route on the transportation network will be used when
making the trip?
Example of Steps in the Four-Step Planning Process
Trip Generation
Trip Production (Pi) Mode Choice
ZONE Pi Trip Distribution
Mode 1
1 Mode 2
To Zone
2 Pi
1 2 3
3
1
Trip Attraction (Aj) 2 Traffic Assignment
From
Zone
ZONE Aj 3 Route A
1 Aj Route B
2 Route C
3
TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
• Delineate the study area
boundaries into traffic analysis
zones (TAZ)
– Defined as: “a special area delineated
by state and/or local transportation
officials for tabulating traffic-related
data, especially jounery-to-work and
place-of-work statistics”
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRAVEL DEMAND
• Location and intensity of land use
• Extent, cost and quality of available transportation
services
• Socioeconomic characteristics of study area
TRIP GENERATION
• Trip generation is the process of estimating the number of
trips that will begin or end in each zone within a study area.
• The amount of traffic generated can be related to several
characteristics that are associated with trip-making
– Characteristics of trip-makers (e.g., age, income, auto ownership, household size, etc.)
– Characteristics of developments (e.g., number of units, square footage of floor area,
number of parking spaces, etc.)
• Data may be aggregated at zonal level or at household level
• Two common methods:
– Trip Rates
– Cross Classification
Rates Based on Activity Units
• Trips are attracted to zones for purposes such as
work, shopping, visiting friends and medical trips.
– These types of “activity units” can be described by measures such
as square feet, number of employees, etc.
Trip-Rate Analysis Example Problem
• Determine the number of trips per day attracted to a zone where 220
retail and 650 nonretail workers are employed.
Table: Trip Generation Rates by Trip Purpose and Employee Category
Attractions per Attractions per Attractions per Attractions per
Household Nonretail Downtwn Retail Other Retail
Employee Employee Employee
HBW --- 1.7 1.7 1.7
HBO 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0
NHB 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
• HBW: (220 x 1.7) + (650 x 1.7) = 1479
• HBO: (220 x 5.0) + (650 x 2.0) = 2400
• NHB: (220 x 3.0) + (650 x 1.0) = 1310
• Total = 5189 trips/day

Cross-Classification Models
• Extensions of the simple trip-rate models
• Households are classified according to a set of
categories that are highly correlated with trip making.
• Aggregate share models based upon:
• Income
• Automobile Ownership
• Household Size
• Trip Purpose
Cross-Classification Example Problem
• Estimate the number of trips generated per day in a zone with 60

dwelling units and an average household income of $44,000.
Balancing Productions and Attractions
• Prior to proceeding to the trip distribution step, it is important to
ensure that the productions and the attractions within the study are
equal.
• Productions are generally considered to be more accurate.
• Attractions are balanced proportionately to match productions
within each zone.
Trip Distribution
• Trip distribution is the process by which all trips

generated in a study area are allocated among
zones.
• The most widely used T/D method is the Gravity
Model, which uses the attributes of the
transportation system and land use characteristics
to distribute trips throughout the network.
Trip Distribution- Gravity Model
• Analogous to Newton’s Law of Gravity
(m₁m₂)
𝐹=𝐺
(r²)
• The number of trips between zones is;
 Directly proportional to the number of trip
attractions generated by the destination zone.
 Inversely proportional to travel time between the
two zones.
Gravity Model
𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖
𝚺𝑗 𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
Where:
• 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = number of trips produced in zone i and attracted to zone j.
• 𝑃𝑖 = total number of trips produced in zone i.
• 𝐴𝑗 = number of trips attracted to zone j.
• 𝐹𝑖𝑗 = friction factor between zones i and j.
• 𝐾𝑖𝑗 = socio-economic adjustment factor for trips from zone i to
zone j.
𝑨𝒋 𝑭𝒊𝒋 𝑲𝒊𝒋
𝑻𝒊𝒋 = 𝑷𝒊
𝜮𝒋 𝑨𝒋 𝑭𝒊𝒋 𝑲𝒊𝒋
Friction Factor
• 𝐹𝑖𝑗 is determined by
calibration process Socioeconomic Adjustment
-inversely related to travel time.
Factor
• Used to make adjustments of
trip distribution values
between zones.
 where differences between
estimated and actual values
are significant.
 accounts for variables other
than travel time.
Gravity Model Example Problem
• The number of productions and attractions with a

three-zone study area are provided here, along with
the inter-zonal travel times and corresponding fiction
factors.
• Given these data, determine the number of zone-to-
zone trips using the Gravity model.
𝑨𝒋 𝑭𝒊𝒋 𝑲𝒊𝒋
𝑻𝒊𝒋 = 𝑷𝒊
𝜮𝒋 𝑨𝒋 𝑭𝒊𝒋 𝑲𝒊𝒋
300𝑥39
𝑇11 = 140 =47
300𝑥39 + 270𝑥52 +(180𝑥50)
270𝑥52
𝑇12 = 140 =57
300𝑥39 + 270𝑥52 +(180𝑥50)
180𝑥50
𝑇13 = 140 =36
300𝑥39 + 270𝑥52 +(180𝑥50)
P₁=47+57+36=140
The process is then repeated:
• This first iteration is “singly constrained”
300𝑥39
in that the computed productions match 𝑇11 = 140
300𝑥39 + 270𝑥52 +(180𝑥50)
=47
the given productions. 270𝑥52
𝑇12 = 140 =57
• However, the attractions do NOT 300𝑥39 + 270𝑥52 +(180𝑥50)
converge at the zonal level. 𝑇13 = 140

180𝑥50
=36
300𝑥39 + 270𝑥52 +(180𝑥50)
• Consequently, “new” attraction values
should be calculated for each zone. P₁=47+57+36=140
Gravity Model Example Problem
• The second iteration, which is now “doubly constrained”

results in the computed productions and attractions
converging (reasonably close) to the given values.

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TRIP GENERATION

The first step in TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING

• Total = 5189 trips/day

• Estimate the number of trips generated per day in a zone with 60

• Trip distribution is the process by which all trips

• The number of productions and attractions with a

converge at the zonal level. 𝑇13 = 140

• The second iteration, which is now “doubly constrained”

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