Key regions: Worldwide, India, United States, China, Germany
The tobacco industry did not let the pandemic hamper its operations. In fact, the industry was one of the few that actually benefited from the pandemic, with Phillip Morris International (PMI) and British American Tobacco (BAT), two of the largest players in the market, generating revenues as high as US$82 billion and US$35 billion in 2021, respectively.
The stay-at-home orders were one of the key factors that drove the industry's growth, which, coupled with pandemic-related anxiety, resulted in many consumers stockpiling products such as cigarettes. Additionally, governments in various countries across the globe deemed tobacco products as "essential" commodities during lockdowns, which further boosted sales.
On a broader level, however, tobacco products have been the target of regulatory tightening for decades. Smoking rates have decreased as a result of stricter laws and consumers' growing health awareness. Nevertheless, companies continue to be profitable, as the decrease in volume sales is being offset by higher prices. Moreover, companies are looking to diversify their product offerings through various acquisitions, hoping to attract the younger generation with products such as newer variations of e-cigarettes.
Sources for the revenue figures: British American Tobacco, Annual Report 2021, page 9, and Phillip Morris International, Annual Report 2021, page 65.
Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on consumer spending on Tobacco products, namely, Cigarettes, Cigars, Smoking Tobacco, and E-Cigarettes.Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, trade data, national statistical office data, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Consumer Insights Global Survey), as well as performance factors. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as smoking rates, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques, such as exponential trend smoothing and regression analysis. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market.Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). Survey data is reweighted for representativeness.
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