2018년 펜실베이니아 주지사 선거

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
2018년 펜실베이니아 주지사 선거
← 2014년 2018년 11월 6일 2022 →
Tom Wolf governor portrait 2019 (cropped).jpg Scott Wagner - Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Candidate 2018 (cropped).jpg
지명자 톰 울프 스콧 바그너
파티 민주적인 공화당원
러닝메이트 존 페터먼 제프 바토스
일반 투표 2,895,662 2,039,899
퍼센티지 57.8% 40.7%
2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
PA Gov 2018 by Congressional District.svg
늑대: 40~50% 50~60% 60~70% 70~80% 80~90% 90 % 이상
바그너: 40~50% 50~60% 60~70% 70~80%
선거 전 주지사

톰 울프
민주적인

선출된 주지사

톰 울프
민주적인

펜실베이니아 주의 선거
연방 정부
미국 대통령
대통령 예비선거
민주적인
2004
2008
2016
2020
공화당원
2008
2020
미국 상원
미국 하원
주정부
지사
부지사
법무장관
감사총장
주 재무관
주 상원
주 하원
연도별 선거
주의회 선거
필라델피아
시장 선거
시의회 선거
기타 자치단체 선거
피츠버그
시장
알렌타운
시장
랭커스터
시장
해리스버그
시장
정부

2018년 펜실베이니아 주지사 선거는 2018년 11월 6일 펜실베이니아 주지사 및 부지사를 선출하기 위해 실시되었다.톰 울프 현 민주당 주지사는 공화당의 스콧 와그너 후보와 녹색당의 두 명의 제3당 후보인 폴 글로버와 자유당 켄 크로추크를 [1][2]두 자릿수 차이로 누르고 재선되었다.예비선거는 5월 [3]15일에 실시되었다.2004년 밥 케이시 주니어가 주 재무장관 선거에서 승리한 이후 컴벌랜드 카운티가 민주당에 투표한 것은 이번이 처음이다.

민주당 경선

지사

후보

지명했다
결과.
민주당의 프라이머리 결과
파티 후보 투표 %
민주적인 톰 울프(인컴번트) 741,676 100.0
총투표수 741,676 100.0

부지사

후보

지명했다

프라이머리 탈락

철회했다
거절당했다

보증

캐시 코조네
주의회 의원
매들린 딘(그림 포함)
연방 공무원
주의회 의원
존 페터먼
연방 공무원
  • 버몬트주 상원의원인 버니 샌더스(2007~현재) (무소속)[15]
주정부 관계자
주의회 의원
시 공무원
노동조합
단체들
개인들
신문
마이크 스택
연방 공무원
주의회 의원
시 공무원
승인 거부

폴링

폴 소스 날짜
관리된		 샘플
크기		 마진
에러의		 아리안나
베링거		 캐시
코조네		 마들렌
딘		 존.
페터맨		 크레이그
리먼		 마이크
스택		 미정
인디펜던스 커뮤니케이션 & 캠페인, LLC 2018년 2월 2일 ~ 4일 467 ± 4.53% 2% 10% 4% 20% 1% 8% 55%

주요 결과

국가별 결과:
페터맨: 70 ~80 %
페터맨—60~70%
페터맨: 50 ~60 %
페터맨: 40 ~50 %
페터맨—40% 미만
아마드: 40~50%
Ahmad: 40% 미만
코조네: 60 ~70 %
코조네—40 % 미만
스택: 40 % 미만
민주당 경선
파티 후보 투표 %
민주적인 존 페터먼 288,229 38.0
민주적인 니나 아흐마드 182,309 23.8
민주적인 캐시 코조네 142,410 18.6
민주적인 Mike Stack (인컴벤트) 127,259 16.6
민주적인 레이 소사 27,427 3.6
총투표수 767,634 100.0

공화당 예비선거

지사

후보

지명했다

프라이머리 탈락

  • 로라 엘스워스 변호사[29][30]
  • 폴 망고, 사업가이자 전 미 육군[31] 장교
철회했다
거절당했다

보증

로라 엘스워스
시 공무원
개인들
신문
폴 망고
미국 상원의원
  • 톰 코튼, 미국 아칸소주 상원의원 (2015년 [45]~ 현재)
  • Rick Santorum, 미국 펜실베이니아주 상원의원(1995~[46]2007)
단체들
스콧 바그너
연방 공무원
지사
미국 대표부
주 상원 의원
주 대표부
개인들
단체들
Mike Turzai (Withdrawing)
주 상원 의원
주 대표부

폴링

폴 소스 날짜
관리된		 샘플
크기		 마진
에러의		 로라
엘스워스		 폴.
망고		 스캇
바그너		 다른. 미정
Susquehanna 폴링 & 리서치 2018년 5월 4일~8일 545 ± 4.2% 18% 23% 37% 1% 22%
콜드스파크 미디어(R-Ellsworth) 2018년 5월 – – 17% 24% 28% – 30%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) 2018년 4월 2일 ~ 3일 500 ± 4.5% 9% 24% 50% – 17%
Revily (R-American Principes Project) 2018년 3월 13일 ~ 15일 800 ± 3.4% 4% 18% 20% – 57%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) 2017년 10월 7일 Wayback Machine에서 아카이브 완료 2017년 9월 18~20일 400 ± 4.9% – 16% 45% – 39%
5% 13% 45% – 37%
가상 폴링
폴 소스 날짜
관리된		 샘플
크기		 마진
에러의		 스캇
바그너		 폴.
망고		 마이크
투르자이		 미정
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) 2017년 4월 9일 ~ 10일 500 ± 4.5% 38% 8% 10% 45%
폴 소스 날짜
관리된		 샘플
크기		 마진
에러의		 스캇
바그너		 폴.
망고		 미정
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) 2017년 9월 18~20일 400 ± 4.9% 45% 16% 39%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) 2017년 4월 9일 ~ 10일 500 ± 4.5% 42% 13% 46%

결과.

국가별 결과:
바그너: 60~70%
바그너: 50~60%
바그너: 40~50%
망고: 40~50%
망고: 50~60%
공화당 예비선거
파티 후보 투표 %
공화당원 스콧 바그너 324,013 44.3
공화당원 폴 망고 270,014 36.9
공화당원 로라 엘스워스 137,650 18.8
총투표수 731,677 100.0

부지사

후보

지명했다
  • Jeff Bartos, 사업가 (Scott [58]Wagner와 함께 운영)

프라이머리 탈락

  • 캐시[59] 코더, 정치 운동가
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, 워싱턴 카운티 커미셔너(Paul [60]Mango와 함께 운영)
  • Peg Luksik, 정치[61] 운동가
투표용지에서 삭제됨
철회했다
고려대상잠재력
거절당했다

보증

제프 바토스

결과.

국가별 결과:
Bartos: 60~70%
Bartos: 50~60%
Bartos: 40~50%
Bartos—40% 미만
코드: 40 ~50 %
코드: 40 % 미만
Vaughan—70~80%
Vaughan - 50 ~60 %
Vaughan - 40 ~50 %
Luksik: 50~60%
Luksik - 40% 미만
공화당 예비선거
파티 후보 투표 %
공화당원 제프 바토스 317,619 46.8
공화당원 캐시 코더 147,805 21.8
공화당원 다이애나 아이리 119,400 17.6
공화당원 페그 룩식 93,667 13.8
총투표수 678,491 100.0

녹색당

지사

후보

지명했다

부지사

후보

지명했다
  • 조콜린 보우서 보스틱

보증

폴 글로버

자유당

지사

후보

지명했다

부지사

후보

지명했다

  • Kathleen Smith, 기업가 (Ken Krawchuk과 함께 운영)

총선

후보

토론

보증

스콧 와그너(R)
연방 공무원
지사
미국 대표부
주 상원 의원
주 대표부
카운티 커미셔너
  • Chris Reilly, 요크 카운티 커미셔너(1996 ~2020년)[51]
개인들
단체들
톰 울프(D)
연방 공무원
지사
미국 대표부
주 대표부
개인들
단체들

예측

원천 순위 현재
쿡 정치 리포트[99] 가능성이 있는 D 2018년 10월 26일
워싱턴 포스트[100] 가능성이 있는 D 2018년 11월 5일
파이브서티에이트[101] 세이프 D 2018년 11월 5일
로텐베르크 정치 보고서[102] 가능성이 있는 D 2018년 11월 1일
사바토의 크리스탈 볼[103] 세이프 D 2018년 11월 5일
리얼 클리어 폴리틱스[104] 세이프 D 2018년 11월 4일
데일리코스[105] 세이프 D 2018년 11월 5일
폭스 뉴스[106][a] 가능성이 있는 D 2018년 11월 5일
폴리티코[107] 가능성이 있는 D 2018년 11월 5일
지배.[108] 가능성이 있는 D 2018년 11월 5일
메모들
  1. ^ Fox News 중간 전력 순위에는 안전/견고한 레이스에 대한 범주가 고유하게 포함되어 있지 않습니다.

폴링

폴 소스 날짜
관리된		 Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Wolf (D) 		Scott
Wagner (R) 		Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,833 – 53% 42% 3%[109] –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% 1% 6%
Muhlenberg College October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 58% 37% – –
Franklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 59% 33% – 5%
537 RV ± 6.0% 57% 27% 6%[110] 10%
Morning Consult Archived October 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 48% 36% – 16%
Franklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018 204 LV – 52% 30% – 17%
545 RV ± 6.1% 52% 28% 2%[111] 18%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 55% 38% 2% 6%
Muhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 55% 36% 6%[112] 2%
Rasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 40% 3% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018 222 LV – 52% 35% 1% 12%
511 RV ± 6.1% 51% 32% 5%[113] 14%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 54% 40% <1% 6%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 46% 43% 3% 8%
Suffolk University Archived June 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 1% 14%
Franklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 48% 29% 1% 23%
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 31% 5% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 137 ± 6.8% 38% 21% 6% 35%
Hypothetical polling
with Paul Mango
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Wolf (D) 		Paul
Mango (R) 		Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 27% 5% 22%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 143 ± 6.8% 49% 22% 4% 25%
with Laura Ellsworth
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Wolf (D) 		Laura
Ellsworth (R) 		Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 46% 26% 4% 24%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 143 ± 6.8% 51% 22% 2% 25%

Results

The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election[114]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent)
John Fetterman 		2,895,652 57.77% +2.84%
Republican Scott Wagner
Jeff Bartos 		2,039,882 40.70% -4.37%
Libertarian Ken Krawchuk
Kathleen Smith 		49,229 0.98% N/A
Green Paul Glover
Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick 		27,792 0.55% N/A
Total votes 5,012,555 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Gov. Tom Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st, 10th & 16th districts which elected Republicans.[115]

District Wagner Wolf Representative
1st 40% 59% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 20% 79% Brendan Boyle
3rd 5% 93% Dwight Evans
4th 32% 66% Madeleine Dean
5th 29% 69% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 37% 61% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 39% 59% Susan Wild
8th 43% 56% Matt Cartwright
9th 54% 44% Dan Meuser
10th 44% 54% Scott Perry
11th 53% 45% Lloyd Smucker
12th 59% 39% Tom Marino
13th 63% 35% John Joyce
14th 51% 48% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 60% 38% Glenn Thompson
16th 48.8% 49.5% Mike Kelly
17th 39% 59% Conor Lamb
18th 26% 72% Mike Doyle

See also

References

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  49. ^ a b Mike Pence. "Proud to be in Philadelphia today campaigning for @realScottWagner- the next great governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania! Scott will fight for all the hardworking people of Pennsylvanian! Support Scott Wagner & #FixPA!". Twitter.
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  82. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @ericholder for joining me to talk about fair maps & criminal justice reform. I am proud that Pennsylvania now has a fair map that better represents PA'ians & we're currently taking action towards criminal justice reform with a new clean state legislation & initiatives". Twitter.
  83. ^ Ricardo Rosselló. ".@GovernorTomWolf – thank you for strongly responding to Puerto Rico's call for assistance. Your leadership and friendship during our darkest hour and your Vision of progress and equality for the state of Pennsylvania make you the best choice in next Tuesday's election". Twitter.
  84. ^ Dwight Evans. "Standing in support of my governor @WolfforPA in West Philly yesterday. #PAVotesBlue #BlueWave2018". Twitter.
  85. ^ Madeleine Dean [@mad4pa] (November 4, 2018). "Let's Turn PA Blue! Great time rallying for PA Democrats with @WolfForPA, @Bob_Casey, @JohnFetterman, @JoshShapiroPA, @DwightEvansPA, @kenlawrencejr, @VAArk, @ciresiforpa, @kmuthPAsenate44, & @Fields4PASenate. Press button D-11 at the polls to vote Democratic! #Mad4PA #PA4 #PA04" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  86. ^ Leanne Krueger. "There's still time to pick up a canvass shift before tonight's #PAVotesBlue rally with @WolfForPA @Bob_Casey @JohnFetterman! Four elections in four years and our team of volunteers grows every cycle. Grateful! #GOTV #MakeItHapPENN". Twitter.
  87. ^ a b Tom Wolf. "There was great energy yesterday at the Chester City Rally The Vote event with Mayor Thaddeus Kirkland, @Bob_Casey, @marygayscanlon, and Rep. Brian Kirkland! Let's continue to get out the vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. #PAVotesBlue". Twitter.
  88. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @tomperez for visiting Pennsylvania and standing with us in November!". Twitter.
  89. ^ Michael Rubin. "Get out and vote next week for ONE America/One Pennsylvania!! This is our guy. @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  90. ^ Meek Mill. "VOTE @governortomwolf! We're in the middle of some important times. Your vote is more important than ever!". Twitter.
  91. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @MeekMill, @KevinHart4real, & @MichaelGRubin for standing with me". Twitter.
  92. ^ Tom Wolf. "Thank you @ZacharyQuinto for your support and for coming home to Pittsburgh to canvas!". Twitter.
  93. ^ Laura Gómez. "Inspired by these hard working activists & volunteers advocating for people to vote in PA, and very hopeful for their progressive governor @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  94. ^ Wanda Sykes [@iamwandasykes] (October 22, 2018). "Thank you Governor Wolf. #WontBeErased" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  95. ^ PA Democratic Party. "While the @PAGOP pals around with Trump and his billionaire buddies, @Bob_Casey and @WolfForPA are keeping company of a different kind". Twitter.
  96. ^ Democratic Governors. ".@WolfForPA is proof: electing a Democratic governor is the best way to end Republican gerrymandering and protect fair district maps". Twitter.
  97. ^ Planned Parenthood Action. ".@PPAdvocatesPA is all in to re-elect @WolfforPA! Special shout out to @MsLauraGomez for joining us to #PinkOutTheVote this past weekend". Twitter.
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  109. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%
  110. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 3%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 2%
  111. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 1%, Paul Glover (G) with 0%; other with 1%
  112. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%, neither/other with 3%
  113. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) and Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  114. ^ "2018 General Election Official Returns". Pennsylvania Department of State. November 6, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
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External links

Debates
Official gubernatorial campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites