Vermont State Senate elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Nov. 6
- Early voting: Sept. 21 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 5
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 10:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.[2]
| 2018 Vermont Senate elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | August 14, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Democrats maintained their supermajority in the 2018 elections for Vermont State Senate, winning 22 seats to Republicans' six, with two seats going to the Vermont Progressive Party. All 30 Senate seats were up for election in 2018. At the time of the election, Democrats held 21 seats to Republicans' seven and the Vermont Progressive Party's two.
Vermont maintained its status as a divided government in 2018, as Democrats held their majorities in the state Senate and House and Republicans retained the governorship.
The Vermont State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.
Vermont state senators serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Democratic Party maintained control of both chambers of the Vermont General Assembly in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, all 30 seats were up for election. Democrats increased their supermajority in the Vermont State Senate. Before the election, Democrats held 21 seats, Republicans held seven seats, and independents held two seats. Following the election, Democrats held 22 seats, Republicans held six seats, and independents held two seats. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the primary and no incumbents were defeated in the general election.
The Vermont House of Representatives held elections for all 150 seats. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives increased. Before the election, Democrats held 80 seats, Republicans held 53 seats, independents held 14 seats, and three seats were vacant. Following the election, Democrats held 95 seats, Republicans held 43 seats, and independents held 12 seats. Two Democratic incumbents were defeated in the primary. Nine incumbents were defeated in the general election; one Democrat, five Republicans, two independents, and one Vermont Progressive Party incumbent.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Candidates
General election candidates
Vermont State Senate General Election 2018 |
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| Office | Democratic |
Republican |
Other |
| Addison District (2 seats) |
Archie Flower (Libertarian Party) |
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| Bennington District (2 seats) |
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Jeff Kaufer (Libertarian Party) |
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| Caledonia District (2 seats) |
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| Chittenden District (6 seats) |
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| Essex-Orleans District (2 seats) |
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Ron Horton (American Party) |
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| Franklin District (2 seats) |
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| Grand Isle District |
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| Lamoille District |
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| Orange District |
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| Rutland District (3 seats) |
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| Washington District (3 seats) |
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| Windham District (2 seats) |
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Aaron Diamondstone (Liberty Union Party) |
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| Windsor District (3 seats) |
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Mason Wade (Independent) |
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Political party key:
Democratic
Republican
Green Party
Libertarian Party
Working Families Party
Independent Party
Vermont Progressive Party
- Fusion voting candidates
- Caledonia District: Joe Benning
- Caledonia District: Jane Kitchel
- Chittenden District: Timothy Ashe
- Chittenden District: Philip Baruth
- Chittenden District: Christopher Pearson
- Essex-Orleans District: John Rodgers
- Essex-Orleans District: Robert Starr
- Franklin District: Dustin Tanner
- Grand Isles District: Richard Mazza
- Lamoille District: Richard Westman
- Rutland District: Greg Cox
- Rutland District: Scott Garren
- Rutland District: Cheryl Hooker
- Washington District: Andrew Perchlik
- Washington District: Anthony Pollina
- Windsor District: Richard McCormack
Primary candidates
The candidate list below is based on a candidate filing list provided by the Vermont Secretary of State website on June 5, 2018. The filing deadline for the August primary was on May 31, 2018. (i) denotes an incumbent.[3]
Vermont State Senate Primary 2018 |
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| Office | Democratic |
Republican |
Other |
| Addison District (2 seats) |
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| Bennington District (2 seats) |
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| Caledonia District (2 seats) |
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| Chittenden District (6 seats) |
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Vermont Progressive Party  Christopher Pearson (i) |
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| Essex-Orleans District (2 seats) |
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| Franklin District (2 seats) |
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| Grand Isle District |
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| Lamoille District |
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| Orange District |
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| Rutland District (3 seats) |
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| Washington District (3 seats) |
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Vermont Progressive Party Anthony Pollina (i) |
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| Windham District (2 seats) |
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| Windsor District (3 seats) |
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= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate ConnectionMargins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Vermont State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[4]
| Vermont State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won[5] | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[4] |
| Democratic |
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| Republican |
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 Other |
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| Total[6] | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races). Red dots represent Republicans, blue dots represent Democrats, yellow dots represent Libertarians, lime dots represent Vermont Progressives, pink dots represent Liberty Union candidates, and grey dots represent independent candidates or candidates from other third parties indicated by a footnote. Candidates are ordered from left to right based on their share of the vote. The margin of victory is the margin between the bottom-place winner and the top-place losing candidate.
| Vermont State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District | ||||
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| District | Winning Party | Losing Party | Margin of Victory | |
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Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the Vermont State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Vermont State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| Vermont State Senate Rutland District | Margaret Flory |
Cheryl Hooker |
R to D |
Incumbents retiring
Four incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Office |
|---|---|---|
| Claire Ayer | Democratic |
Senate Addison District |
| Carolyn Whitney Branagan | Republican |
Senate Franklin District |
| Peg Flory | Republican |
Senate Rutland District |
| Francis Brooks | Democratic |
Senate Washington District |
Process to become a candidate
See statutes: Title 17-49 of the Vermont Election Law
Major party candidates
A candidate seeking the nomination of a major political party in the primary must file a nominating petition and consent form with the appropriate filing officer in order to authorize the printing of his or her name on the primary ballot.[9][10]
- For candidates seeking statewide or federal office, paperwork must be filed with the Vermont Secretary of State.
- For candidates running for office in the Vermont House of Representatives, paperwork must be filed with the Representative District Clerk.
- For candidates running for office in the Vermont State Senate, paperwork must be filed with the Senatorial District Clerk.[9]
A candidate must file the petition and consent form with the appropriate filing authority no later than 5:00 p.m. on the fourth Thursday after the first Monday in May preceding the primary election. A candidate may only run for one party in the primary election, and only major party candidates may run in a primary.[11][12]
Petition signature requirements are detailed in the table below.[13]
| Statutory signature requirements for major party candidates | |
|---|---|
| Office | Required signatures |
| Statewide and federal office | 500 |
| State senator | 100 |
| State representative | 50 |
Minor party candidates
A candidate seeking the nomination of a minor political party in the general election is nominated by party committee. The candidate must file a candidate consent form and party committee nomination form with the Vermont Secretary of State. The party committee must also complete the party committee nomination form.[14]
Both the candidate consent form and the party committee nomination form must be filed no later than 5:00 p.m. on the fourth Thursday after the first Monday in May preceding the primary election.[11][14]
- For candidates seeking statewide or federal office, paperwork must be filed with the Vermont Secretary of State.
- For candidates running for office in the Vermont House of Representatives, paperwork must be filed with the Representative District Clerk.
- For candidates running for office in the Vermont State Senate, paperwork must be filed with the Senatorial District Clerk.[9]
Independent candidates
An independent candidates in the general election must file a statement of nomination form and candidate consent form with the Vermont Secretary of State in order to authorize the printing of his or her name on the general election ballot.[15]
Petition signature requirements are detailed in the table below.[16]
| Statutory signature requirements for independent candidates | |
|---|---|
| Office | Required signatures |
| Statewide and federal office | 500 |
| State senator | 100 |
| State representative | 50 |
Write-in candidates
A write-in candidate is not required to submit any forms with any filing authority. The ballot will allow as many blank lines for write-in candidates as there are persons to be elected.[17]
Qualifications
The Vermont Constitution states, "No person shall be elected a Representative or a Senator until the person has resided in this State two years, the last year of which shall be in the legislative district for which the person is elected."[18]
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
| State legislative salaries, 2024[19] | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $843.32/week during session | No per diem paid during session. Members can receive $168.66/day in per diem outside of session. |
When sworn in
Vermont legislators assume office the first Wednesday after the first Monday in January after the election.[20]
Vermont political history
Party control
2018
In the 2018 elections, Democrats increased their majority in the Vermont State Senate from 21-7 to 22-6.
| Vermont State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 21 | 22 | |
| Republican Party | 7 | 6 | |
| Independent | 2 | 2 | |
| Total | 30 | 30 | |
2016
In the 2016 elections, Democrats increased their seats in the Vermont State Senate from 19 to 21, Republicans saw a decrease in their seats from nine to seven, and the Vermont Progressive Party maintained its two seats.
| Vermont State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 19 | 21 | |
| Republican Party | 9 | 7 | |
| Vermont Progressive Party | 2 | 2 | |
| Total | 30 | 30 | |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republican Governor Phil Scott won election in 2014, moving Vermont's state government to divided control. Prior to that, Democrats had held a trifecta since the 2010 elections.
Vermont Party Control: 1992-2024
Ten years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| House | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[21] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[22] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[23] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
One of 14 Vermont counties—7.14 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Essex County, Vermont | 16.65% | 13.40% | 14.48% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Vermont with 56.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 30.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Vermont cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 60.0 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Vermont supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 70.0 to 26.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Vermont. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won all 13 state Senate districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 34.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 12 out of 13 state Senate districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 24.2 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won one state Senate district in Vermont in 2016 with a margin of victory of 1.9 points. That district was controlled by a Democrat heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| Addison | 69.34% | 28.75% | D+40.6 | 59.27% | 27.28% | D+32 | D |
| Bennington | 65.83% | 32.43% | D+33.4 | 54.97% | 33.99% | D+21 | D |
| Caledonia | 60.60% | 37.40% | D+23.2 | 46.53% | 38.94% | D+7.6 | R |
| Chittenden | 70.66% | 27.57% | D+43.1 | 66.57% | 21.42% | D+45.1 | P |
| Essex-Orleans | 61.17% | 37.01% | D+24.2 | 41.89% | 43.82% | R+1.9 | D |
| Franklin | 60.79% | 37.73% | D+23.1 | 43.71% | 40.99% | D+2.7 | R |
| Grand Isle | 62.79% | 35.50% | D+27.3 | 56.49% | 31.98% | D+24.5 | D |
| Lamoille | 70.24% | 28.08% | D+42.2 | 57.20% | 27.53% | D+29.7 | R |
| Orange | 66.61% | 31.22% | D+35.4 | 52.49% | 32.74% | D+19.7 | D |
| Rutland | 60.19% | 38.11% | D+22.1 | 46.09% | 42.11% | D+4 | R |
| Washington | 70.05% | 27.86% | D+42.2 | 59.81% | 25.71% | D+34.1 | D |
| Windham | 74.57% | 23.64% | D+50.9 | 64.09% | 23.31% | D+40.8 | D |
| Total | 67.03% | 31.19% | D+35.8 | 56.68% | 30.27% | D+26.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- Vermont State Senate
- Vermont State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Vermont state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Vermont state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Polls may have opened earlier than 10:00 a.m.; 10:00 a.m. was the latest poll opening time.
- ↑ Polls may have opened earlier than 10:00 a.m.; 10:00 a.m. was the latest poll opening time.
- ↑ Vermont Secretary of State, "Candidates: Offices to be elected in 2018," accessed June 5, 2018
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Defined as the number of districts where at least one of this party's candidates won.
- ↑ These numbers are lower than the sum of the figures found in the above rows due to the presence of multimember districts.
- ↑ Fair Representation Vermont Party
- ↑ American Party
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Vermont Elections Division, "Information for Candidates, Primary Election," accessed November 1, 2013
- ↑ Vermont Election Law, "Title 17-49-2361," accessed March 27, 2014
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Vermont Election Law, "Title 17-49-2356," accessed March 27, 2014
- ↑ Vermont Election Law, "Title 17-49-2353," accessed March 27, 2014
- ↑ Vermont Election Law, "Title 17-49-2355," accessed March 27, 2014
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 Vermont Elections Division, "For Minor Party Candidates," accessed November 1, 2013
- ↑ Vermont Elections Division, "Independent Candidates," accessed November 1, 2013
- ↑ Vermont Election Law, "Title 17-49-2402," accessed March 28, 2014
- ↑ Vermont Election Law, "Title 17-49-2362," accessed March 28, 2014
- ↑ usconstitution.net, "Vermont Constitution," accessed December 18, 2013(Referenced Section 15)
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
- ↑ Vermont Constitution, "Chapter II, Section 46," accessed February 4, 2021
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
