BALANCE GENERAL 2012-2015

(Valores expresados en millones de pesos colombianos)

Fuente: NOTAS DE LOS ESTADOS FINANCIEROS ISAGEN

CHECK - - -
ACTIVOS 2012 2013 2014
Activos no Corrientes
Propiedad Planta y Equipo 5,765,212 6,493,867 7,295,259
Activos Intagibles 32,399 31,281 28,736
Prestamos y Cuentas por Cobrar 13,418 14,322 19,576
Inversiones 84 84 84
Otros Activos 356 1,307 1,307
Total Activo no corriente 5,811,469 6,540,861 7,344,962
Activo Corriente
Inventarios 91,796 92,356 109,449
Prestamos y Cuentas por Cobrar 375,321 288,282 341,941
Otros Activos (No corrientes) 995 365 288
Inversiones 120,220 20,538 84,522
Efectivo 178,326 229,155 244,301
Total Activos Corrientes 766,658 630,696 780,501
TOTAL ACTIVOS 6,578,127 7,171,557 8,125,463

PASIVOS Y PATRIMONIO
Pasivos no Corrientes
Prestamos a Largo Plazo 2,098,613 2,616,412 3,299,149
Impuesto a la renta diferido 497,046 523,205 568,332
Impuesto, contribuciones y tasas 24,552 - -
Provisiones 119,587 88,744 97,207
Cuentas por Pagar 50,447 64,876 10,101
Total Pasivos no corrientes 2,790,245 3,293,237 3,974,789
Pasivos Corrientes
Cuentas por Pagar 273,087 140,912 309,484
Prestamos a Corto Plazo 82,811 70,535 96,537
Impuesto, contribuciones y tasas 49,898 50,140 23,040
Obligaciones Laborales 9,089 10,664 12,512
Provisiones 14,029 58,417 34,455
Otros Pasivos 60,851 42,831 29,132
Total Pasivos Corrientes 489,765 373,499 505,160
TOTAL PASIVOS 3,280,010 3,666,736 4,479,949
PATRIMONIO
Capital 68,152 68,152 68,152
Reservas 1,318,524 1,590,510 1,807,208
Prima y colocacion de Acciones 51,796 49,344 49,344
Ganancias Retenidas 1,451,889 1,402,940 1,362,849
Resultado de año anterior 409,441 393,875 357,961
Acciones Propias requeridas - 1,685 - -
TOTAL PATRIMONIO 3,298,117 3,504,821 3,645,514
TOTAL PASIVOS + PATRIMONIO 6,578,127 7,171,557 8,125,463
s)
GEN

-
2015

7,268,038
73,535
43,322
84
909
7,385,888

97,705
475,313
43,534
1,822
364,513
982,887
8,368,775

3,427,738
683,425
-
103,064
13,940
4,228,167

298,148
310,486
16,773
12,230
13,879
28,793
680,309
4,908,476
 133,578
1,697,050
49,344
1,284,227
296,100
-
3,460,299
8,368,775
 ESTADO DE RESULTADOS 2012-2015
(Valores expresados en millones de pesos colombianos)
Fuente: NOTAS DE LOS ESTADOS FINANCIEROS ISAGEN

2012 2013 2014

INGRESOS OPERACIONALES 1,731,539 2,002,814 2,329,620
(-) Costo de Ventas 1,128,476 1,342,080 1,618,744
Utilidad Bruta 603,063 660,734 710,876
(-) Gastos de Administracion 105,501 110,957 118,601
Utilidad Operacional 497,562 549,777 592,275
(+) Ingresos financieros 36,300 19,598 27,894
(+) Otros ingresos 30,804 13,963 12,212
Total ingresos no operacionales 67,104 33,561 40,106
(-) Costo por Intereses 52,490 43,673 40,724
(-) Intereses Pensiones y Beneficios laborales 9,841 9,005 9,054
(-) Intereses y Obligaciones Tributarias 6,746 5,251 1,459
(-) Creditos Judiciales 3,758 2,661 -
(-) Diferencia en Cambio 2,302 10,504 53,323
Total Gastos Financieros 75,137 71,094 104,560
(-) Otros Gastos 10,696 20,162 19,349
Total Gastos no Operativos 85,833 91,256 123,909
Utilidad antes de Impuestos 478,833 492,082 508,472
Gastos de Impuestos 54,499 121,695 150,055
Utilidad Neta 424,334 370,387 358,417
Otras Deducciones 14,893 23,488 456
Utilidad del Ejercicio 409,441 393,875 357,961
)

2015
2,844,022
1,752,593
1,091,429
153,535
937,894
76,845
26,984
103,829
383,750
7,011
195
-
124,008
514,964
31,974
546,938
494,785
197,404
297,381
1,281
296,100
 2012 2013 2014
DEUDA FINANCIERA 50% 51% 55%
PATRIMONIO 50% 48.9% 44.9%
TOTAL CAPITAL INVERTIDO 100% 100% 100%
D/E

DEUDA FINAL
GASTOS POR INTERESES
KD

COSTO BRUTO DEUDA

TASA DE IMPUESTOS
COSTO NETO DEUDA

WACC (weighted average cost of capital)

Risk Free Rate (Usd Trsy 30 y, Bloomberg) 1.69%
PRIMA RIESGO PAÍS 2.20%
TASA LIBRE DE RIESGO COLOMBIA 3.89%
Beta no apalancado (Damodaran) 0.68
Beta apalancado
Equity Risk Premium (Damodaran)
Prima de Riesgo EQUITY
Prima de Riesgo de la Empresa
Cost of Equity ( Ke ) USD
Devaluación (diferencial de inflación) COP/USD
Cost of Equity ( Ke ) COP
WACC (weighted average cost of capital)

INFLACIÓN COLOMBIA
INFLACION USA
2015
59%
41.3%
100%
Razon de apalancamiento

TASA EFECTIVA DE IMPUESTOS

EMBI

beta de la indusria

premio al riesgo por invertir en acciones

 Tasas de Interés
FUENTE: NOTAS FINANCIERAS ISAGEN 2012-2015
VENCIMIENTO 2012 2013 2014
Club Deal Bancario 2025 DTF+ 4,9% IBR+ 4,30% IBR+ 4,30%
Power Finance Trust Limited 2025 IPC+ 5,25% IPC+ 5,25% IPC+ 5,25%
Bonos de deuda 15 2024 IPC+ 6,99% IPC+ 6,99% IPC+ 6,99%
Bonos de deuda 10 2019 IPC+ 6,48% IPC+ 6,48 IPC+ 6,48
Empréstito Bancario 2026 0 0 IBR+ 4,30%
Bonos de deuda 7 2016 IPC+ 5,93% IPC+ 5,93% IPC+ 5,93%
Santander España 2032 0 LIBOR+ 1,40% LIBOR+ 1,40%
Leasing Financiero 2031 DTF+ 4,4% DTF+ 4,1% DTF+ 4,1%
JBIC 2025 LIBOR+ 2,85% LIBOR+ 2,85% LIBOR+ 2,85%
Banco de Tokio-BBVA 2018 Libor + 1% LIBOR+ 1% LIBOR+ 1%
Empréstito Bancario 2026 0 0 0
Leasing Financiero 2031 DTF+ 4,4% 0 0

2011 2012 2013

Club Deal Bancario 148,281 10.50% 685,922 8.75%
Power Finance Trust Limited 443,104 8.59% 429,240 7.37%
Bonos de deuda 15 412,258 10.38% 409,913 9.15%
Bonos de deuda 10 303,439 9.86% 301,344 8.63%
Empréstito Bancario BANCOLOMBIA PY SOGAMOSO 212,431
Bonos de deuda 7 42,878 9.29% 210,850 8.07%
Santander España 7.44%
Leasing Financiero 9.97% 62,499 8.55%
JBIC 9.20% 40,709 8.97%
Banco de Tokio-BBVA 7.23% 24,839 7.01%
Empréstito Bancario (DAVIVIENDA PY SOGAMOSO)
Leasing Financiero 9.97% 16,108
TOTAL OPERACIONES DE FINANCIAMIENTO 1,562,391 2,181,424

Gastos de Inteseses 214,080 227,476

KD 9.81% 8.47%
Interés
RAS ISAGEN 2012-2015
2015
IBR+ 4,30% 4.90% 4.30%
IPC+ 5,25% 5.25% 5.25%
IPC+ 6,99% 6.99% 6.99%
IPC+ 6,48 6.48% 6.48%
IBR+ 4,30% 4.30%
IPC+ 5,93% 5.93% 5.93%
LIBOR+ 1,40% 1.40%
DTF+ 4,1% 4.40% 4.10%
LIBOR+ 2,85% 2.85% 2.85%
LIBOR+ 1% 1% 1%
IBR+ 4,05% 4.05
0 4.40%

2013 2014 2015

1,085,573 11.26% 1,540,698 11.26% 1,560,625
412,650 8.30% 379,718 10.50% 364,844
410,706 10.09% 409,642 12.32% 411,432
301,053 9.57% 299,388 11.79% 301,807
9.22% 242,622 9.22% 245,559
209,887 9.00% 207,984 11.21% 209,777
87,974 7.38% 118,220 7.54% 157,624
79,683 11.05% 82,761 11.05% 89,996
60,863 8.92% 77,897 9.07% 108,407
38,558 6.96% 36,756 7.11% 36,294
8.96% 251,859

2,686,947 3,395,686 3,738,224

343,450 403,268
10.11% 10.79%
 2012.00 2013 2014 2015
Date 10 Yr 10 Yr 10 Yr 10 Yr
3/1/2012 1.97 1.86 3 2.12
4/1/2012 2.00 1.92 3.01 2.04 2012
5/1/2012 2.02 1.93 2.98 1.97 1.80%
6/1/2012 1.98 1.92 2.96 1.96
9/1/2012 1.98 1.89 3.01 2.03
10/1/2012 2.00 1.88 2.97 1.98 https://www.treasury.gov/resourc
11/1/2012 1.93 1.91 2.88 1.92
12/1/2012 1.94 1.89 2.84 1.91
01/13/12 1.89 1.89 2.88 1.86
01/17/12 1.87 1.86 2.9 1.77
01/18/12 1.92 1.84 2.86 1.83
01/19/12 2.01 1.89 2.84 1.82
01/20/12 2.05 1.87 2.85 1.87
01/23/12 2.09 1.86 2.87 1.9
01/24/12 2.08 1.86 2.79 1.81
01/25/12 2.01 1.88 2.75 1.83
01/26/12 1.96 1.98 2.78 1.83
01/27/12 1.93 2 2.77 1.73
01/30/12 1.87 2.03 2.69 1.77
01/31/12 1.83 2.03 2.72 1.68
1/2/2012 1.87 2.02 2.67 1.68
2/2/2012 1.86 2.04 2.61 1.79
3/2/2012 1.97 2 2.64 1.81
6/2/2012 1.93 2.04 2.7 1.83
7/2/2012 2.00 2 2.73 1.95
8/2/2012 2.01 1.99 2.71 1.96
9/2/2012 2.04 1.99 2.7 2.01
10/2/2012 1.96 1.99 2.75 2
02/13/12 1.99 2.02 2.8 1.99
02/14/12 1.92 2.05 2.73 2.02
02/15/12 1.93 2 2.75 2.14
02/16/12 1.99 2.01 2.71 2.07
02/17/12 2.01 2.03 2.73 2.11
02/21/12 2.05 2.02 2.76 2.13
02/22/12 2.01 1.99 2.73 2.06
02/23/12 1.99 1.97 2.75 1.99
02/24/12 1.98 1.88 2.7 1.96
02/27/12 1.92 1.88 2.67 2.03
02/28/12 1.94 1.91 2.65 2
 02/29/12 1.98 1.89 2.66 2.08
1/3/2012 2.03 1.86 2.6 2.12
2/3/2012 1.99 1.88 2.7 2.12
5/3/2012 2.00 1.9 2.7 2.11
6/3/2012 1.96 1.95 2.74 2.24
7/3/2012 1.98 2 2.8 2.2
8/3/2012 2.03 2.06 2.79 2.14
9/3/2012 2.04 2.07 2.77 2.11
12/3/2012 2.04 2.03 2.73 2.1
03/13/12 2.14 2.04 2.66 2.13
03/14/12 2.29 2.04 2.65 2.1
03/15/12 2.29 2.01 2.7 2.06
03/16/12 2.31 1.96 2.68 1.93
03/19/12 2.39 1.92 2.78 1.98
03/20/12 2.38 1.96 2.79 1.93
03/21/12 2.31 1.95 2.75 1.92
03/22/12 2.29 1.93 2.74 1.88
03/23/12 2.25 1.93 2.75 1.93
03/26/12 2.26 1.92 2.71 2.01
03/27/12 2.20 1.87 2.69 1.95
03/28/12 2.21 1.87 2.73 1.96
03/29/12 2.18 1.86 2.73 1.94
03/30/12 2.23 1.88 2.77 1.87
2/4/2012 2.22 1.83 2.82 1.92
3/4/2012 2.30 1.78 2.8 1.85
4/4/2012 2.25 1.72 2.74 1.92
5/4/2012 2.19 1.76 2.71 1.89
6/4/2012 2.07 1.78 2.69 1.92
9/4/2012 2.06 1.84 2.71 1.97
10/4/2012 2.01 1.82 2.65 1.96
11/4/2012 2.05 1.75 2.63 1.94
12/4/2012 2.08 1.72 2.65 1.9
04/13/12 2.02 1.75 2.64 1.91
04/16/12 2.00 1.73 2.65 1.9
04/17/12 2.03 1.72 2.73 1.87
04/18/12 2.00 1.73 2.73 1.9
04/19/12 1.98 1.72 2.73 1.92
04/20/12 1.99 1.74 2.7 1.99
04/23/12 1.96 1.73 2.7 1.96
04/24/12 2.00 1.74 2.68 1.93
04/25/12 2.01 1.7 2.7 1.94
 04/26/12 1.98 1.7 2.71 2
04/27/12 1.96 1.7 2.67 2.06
04/30/12 1.95 1.66 2.63 2.05
1/5/2012 1.98 1.66 2.6 2.12
2/5/2012 1.96 1.78 2.63 2.16
3/5/2012 1.96 1.8 2.61 2.19
4/5/2012 1.91 1.82 2.62 2.25
7/5/2012 1.92 1.81 2.61 2.18
8/5/2012 1.88 1.81 2.62 2.16
9/5/2012 1.87 1.9 2.66 2.28
10/5/2012 1.89 1.92 2.61 2.28
11/5/2012 1.84 1.96 2.54 2.27
05/14/12 1.78 1.94 2.5 2.23
05/15/12 1.76 1.87 2.52 2.14
05/16/12 1.76 1.95 2.54 2.23
05/17/12 1.70 1.97 2.52 2.27
05/18/12 1.71 1.94 2.54 2.26
05/21/12 1.75 2.03 2.56 2.19
05/22/12 1.79 2.02 2.54 2.21
05/23/12 1.73 2.01 2.52 2.14
05/24/12 1.77 2.15 2.44 2.14
05/25/12 1.75 2.13 2.45 2.13
05/29/12 1.74 2.13 2.48 2.12
05/30/12 1.63 2.16 2.54 2.19
05/31/12 1.59 2.13 2.6 2.27
1/6/2012 1.47 2.14 2.61 2.38
4/6/2012 1.53 2.1 2.59 2.31
5/6/2012 1.57 2.08 2.6 2.41
6/6/2012 1.66 2.17 2.62 2.39
7/6/2012 1.66 2.22 2.64 2.42
8/6/2012 1.65 2.2 2.65 2.5
11/6/2012 1.60 2.25 2.58 2.39
12/6/2012 1.67 2.19 2.6 2.39
06/13/12 1.61 2.14 2.61 2.36
06/14/12 1.64 2.19 2.66 2.32
06/15/12 1.60 2.2 2.61 2.32
06/18/12 1.59 2.33 2.64 2.35
06/19/12 1.64 2.41 2.63 2.26
06/20/12 1.65 2.52 2.63 2.37
06/21/12 1.63 2.57 2.59 2.42
06/22/12 1.69 2.6 2.57 2.38
 06/25/12 1.63 2.55 2.53 2.4
06/26/12 1.66 2.49 2.54 2.49
06/27/12 1.65 2.52 2.53 2.33
06/28/12 1.60 2.5 2.58 2.35
06/29/12 1.67 2.48 2.64 2.43
2/7/2012 1.61 2.52 2.65 2.4
3/7/2012 1.65 2.73 2.63 2.3
5/7/2012 1.62 2.65 2.58 2.27
6/7/2012 1.57 2.65 2.57 2.22
9/7/2012 1.53 2.7 2.55 2.32
10/7/2012 1.53 2.6 2.53 2.42
11/7/2012 1.54 2.61 2.55 2.44
12/7/2012 1.50 2.57 2.56 2.41
07/13/12 1.52 2.55 2.55 2.36
07/16/12 1.50 2.52 2.47 2.36
07/17/12 1.53 2.56 2.5 2.34
07/18/12 1.52 2.5 2.49 2.38
07/19/12 1.54 2.5 2.48 2.35
07/20/12 1.49 2.53 2.48 2.33
07/23/12 1.47 2.61 2.52 2.28
07/24/12 1.44 2.61 2.48 2.27
07/25/12 1.43 2.58 2.5 2.23
07/26/12 1.45 2.61 2.47 2.26
07/27/12 1.58 2.63 2.57 2.29
07/30/12 1.53 2.6 2.58 2.28
07/31/12 1.51 2.74 2.52 2.2
1/8/2012 1.56 2.63 2.51 2.16
2/8/2012 1.51 2.67 2.49 2.23
3/8/2012 1.60 2.67 2.49 2.28
6/8/2012 1.59 2.61 2.43 2.23
7/8/2012 1.66 2.58 2.44 2.18
8/8/2012 1.68 2.57 2.44 2.24
9/8/2012 1.69 2.61 2.46 2.15
10/8/2012 1.65 2.71 2.43 2.14
08/13/12 1.65 2.71 2.4 2.19
08/14/12 1.73 2.77 2.34 2.2
08/15/12 1.80 2.84 2.39 2.16
08/16/12 1.83 2.88 2.4 2.2
08/17/12 1.81 2.82 2.43 2.12
08/20/12 1.82 2.87 2.41 2.09
08/21/12 1.80 2.9 2.4 2.05
 08/22/12 1.71 2.82 2.39 2.01
08/23/12 1.68 2.79 2.39 2.12
08/24/12 1.68 2.72 2.37 2.18
08/27/12 1.65 2.78 2.34 2.18
08/28/12 1.64 2.75 2.35 2.19
08/29/12 1.66 2.78 2.42 2.21
08/30/12 1.63 2.86 2.41 2.17
08/31/12 1.57 2.9 2.45 2.2
4/9/2012 1.59 2.98 2.46 2.18
5/9/2012 1.60 2.94 2.48 2.13
6/9/2012 1.68 2.9 2.5 2.2
7/9/2012 1.67 2.96 2.54 2.21
10/9/2012 1.68 2.93 2.54 2.23
11/9/2012 1.70 2.92 2.62 2.2
12/9/2012 1.77 2.9 2.6 2.18
09/13/12 1.75 2.88 2.6 2.28
09/14/12 1.88 2.86 2.62 2.3
09/17/12 1.85 2.69 2.63 2.21
09/18/12 1.82 2.76 2.59 2.13
09/19/12 1.79 2.75 2.57 2.2
09/20/12 1.80 2.72 2.54 2.14
09/21/12 1.77 2.67 2.57 2.16
09/24/12 1.74 2.63 2.52 2.13
09/25/12 1.70 2.66 2.54 2.17
09/26/12 1.64 2.64 2.5 2.1
09/27/12 1.66 2.64 2.52 2.05
09/28/12 1.65 2.66 2.42 2.06
1/10/2012 1.64 2.63 2.44 2.05
2/10/2012 1.64 2.62 2.45 1.99
3/10/2012 1.64 2.66 2.43 2.07
4/10/2012 1.70 2.65 2.36 2.05
5/10/2012 1.75 2.66 2.35 2.08
9/10/2012 1.74 2.68 2.34 2.12
10/10/2012 1.72 2.71 2.31 2.12
11/10/2012 1.70 2.7 2.21 2.06
12/10/2012 1.69 2.75 2.15 1.99
10/15/12 1.70 2.69 2.17 2.04
10/16/12 1.75 2.61 2.22 2.04
10/17/12 1.83 2.6 2.2 2.04
10/18/12 1.86 2.63 2.23 2.08
10/19/12 1.79 2.54 2.25 2.04
 10/22/12 1.83 2.51 2.29 2.04
10/23/12 1.79 2.53 2.29 2.09
10/24/12 1.80 2.53 2.27 2.07
10/25/12 1.86 2.54 2.3 2.05
10/26/12 1.78 2.53 2.34 2.1
10/29/12 1.74 2.55 2.32 2.19
10/31/12 1.72 2.57 2.35 2.16
1/11/2012 1.75 2.65 2.36 2.2
2/11/2012 1.75 2.63 2.35 2.23
5/11/2012 1.72 2.69 2.36 2.25
6/11/2012 1.78 2.67 2.39 2.26
7/11/2012 1.68 2.63 2.32 2.34
8/11/2012 1.62 2.77 2.38 2.36
9/11/2012 1.61 2.8 2.37 2.32
11/13/12 1.59 2.75 2.35 2.32
11/14/12 1.59 2.69 2.32 2.28
11/15/12 1.58 2.71 2.34 2.27
11/16/12 1.58 2.67 2.32 2.25
11/19/12 1.61 2.71 2.36 2.27
11/20/12 1.66 2.8 2.34 2.24
11/21/12 1.69 2.79 2.31 2.26
11/23/12 1.70 2.75 2.3 2.25
11/26/12 1.66 2.74 2.27 2.24
11/27/12 1.64 2.71 2.24 2.23
11/28/12 1.63 2.74 2.18 2.22
11/29/12 1.62 2.75 2.22 2.21
11/30/12 1.62 2.81 2.28 2.15
3/12/2012 1.63 2.79 2.29 2.18
4/12/2012 1.62 2.84 2.25 2.33
5/12/2012 1.60 2.88 2.31 2.28
6/12/2012 1.59 2.88 2.26 2.23
7/12/2012 1.64 2.86 2.22 2.24
10/12/2012 1.63 2.81 2.18 2.22
11/12/2012 1.66 2.86 2.19 2.24
12/12/2012 1.72 2.89 2.1 2.13
12/13/12 1.74 2.88 2.12 2.23
12/14/12 1.72 2.89 2.07 2.28
12/17/12 1.78 2.85 2.14 2.3
12/18/12 1.84 2.89 2.22 2.24
12/19/12 1.82 2.94 2.17 2.19
12/20/12 1.81 2.89 2.17 2.2
12/21/12 1.77 2.94 2.26 2.24
12/24/12 1.79 2.99 2.27 2.27
12/26/12 1.77 3 2.25 2.25
12/27/12 1.74 3.02 2.22 2.24
12/28/12 1.73 2.99 2.2 2.32
12/31/12 1.78 3.04 2.17 2.31
2.27
 2013 2014 2015
2.35% 2.54% 2.14%

ttps://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2012
spx?data=yieldYear&year=2012
 Returns by year

Date updated: 1-Jan-16

Created by: Aswath Damodaran, [email protected]
What is this data? Historical returns: Stocks, T.Bonds & T.Bills with premiums
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each indhttp://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Customized Geometric risk premium estimator
What is your riskfree rate? LT
Enter your starting year 1928

Value of stocks in starting year:

Value of T.Bills in starting year:
Value of T.bonds in starting year:
Estimate of risk premium based on your inputs:

Annual Returns on Investments in

Year S&P 500 3-month T.Bill 10-year T. Bond
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84%
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20%
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54%
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56%
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79%
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86%
1934 -1.19% 0.32% 7.96%
1935 46.74% 0.18% 4.47%
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02%
1937 -35.34% 0.30% 1.38%
1938 29.28% 0.08% 4.21%
1939 -1.10% 0.04% 4.41%
1940 -10.67% 0.03% 5.40%
1941 -12.77% 0.08% -2.02%
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29%
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49%
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58%
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80%
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13%
1947 5.20% 0.57% 0.92%
1948 5.70% 1.02% 1.95%
1949 18.30% 1.10% 4.66%

Page 20
 Returns by year

1950 30.81% 1.17% 0.43%

1951 23.68% 1.48% -0.30%
1952 18.15% 1.67% 2.27%
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14%
1954 52.56% 0.96% 3.29%
1955 32.60% 1.66% -1.34%
1956 7.44% 2.56% -2.26%
1957 -10.46% 3.23% 6.80%
1958 43.72% 1.78% -2.10%
1959 12.06% 3.26% -2.65%
1960 0.34% 3.05% 11.64%
1961 26.64% 2.27% 2.06%
1962 -8.81% 2.78% 5.69%
1963 22.61% 3.11% 1.68%
1964 16.42% 3.51% 3.73%
1965 12.40% 3.90% 0.72%
1966 -9.97% 4.84% 2.91%
1967 23.80% 4.33% -1.58%
1968 10.81% 5.26% 3.27%
1969 -8.24% 6.56% -5.01%
1970 3.56% 6.69% 16.75%
1971 14.22% 4.54% 9.79%
1972 18.76% 3.95% 2.82%
1973 -14.31% 6.73% 3.66%
1974 -25.90% 7.78% 1.99%
1975 37.00% 5.99% 3.61%
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98%
1977 -6.98% 5.13% 1.29%
1978 6.51% 6.93% -0.78%
1979 18.52% 9.94% 0.67%
1980 31.74% 11.22% -2.99%
1981 -4.70% 14.30% 8.20%
1982 20.42% 11.01% 32.81%
1983 22.34% 8.45% 3.20%
1984 6.15% 9.61% 13.73%
1985 31.24% 7.49% 25.71%
1986 18.49% 6.04% 24.28%
1987 5.81% 5.72% -4.96%
1988 16.54% 6.45% 8.22%
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69%
1990 -3.06% 7.55% 6.24%

Page 21
 Returns by year

1991 30.23% 5.61% 15.00%

1992 7.49% 3.41% 9.36%
1993 9.97% 2.98% 14.21%
1994 1.33% 3.99% -8.04%
1995 37.20% 5.52% 23.48%
1996 22.68% 5.02% 1.43%
1997 33.10% 5.05% 9.94%
1998 28.34% 4.73% 14.92%
1999 20.89% 4.51% -8.25%
2000 -9.03% 5.76% 16.66%
2001 -11.85% 3.67% 5.57%
2002 -21.97% 1.66% 15.12%
2003 28.36% 1.03% 0.38%
2004 10.74% 1.23% 4.49%
2005 4.83% 3.01% 2.87%
2006 15.61% 4.68% 1.96%
2007 5.48% 4.64% 10.21%
2008 -36.55% 1.59% 20.10%
2009 25.94% 0.14% -11.12%
2010 14.82% 0.13% 8.46%
2011 2.10% 0.03% 16.04%
2012 15.89% 0.05% 2.97%
2013 32.15% 0.07% -9.10%
2014 13.52% 0.05% 10.75%
2015 1.36% 0.21% 1.28%

Arithmetic Average
1928-2015 11.41% 3.49% 5.23%
1966-2015 11.01% 4.97% 7.12%
2006-2015 9.03% 1.16% 5.16%

Geometric Average
1928-2015 9.50% 3.45% 4.96%
1966-2015 9.61% 4.92% 6.71%
2006-2015 7.25% 1.14% 4.71%

Page 22
 Returns by year

ums US companies

variable.htm

Estimates of risk premiums from 1928, over the last 50 years and over the last 10 years
are provided at the bottom of this table.

100
100
100
4.54%

Compounded Value of $ 100

Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds Stocks - Bills Stocks - Bonds
$ 143.81 $ 103.08 $ 100.84 40.73% 42.98%
$ 131.88 $ 106.34 $ 105.07 -11.46% -12.50%
$ 98.75 $ 111.18 $ 109.85 -29.67% -29.66%
$ 55.46 $ 113.74 $ 107.03 -46.15% -41.28%
$ 50.66 $ 114.96 $ 116.44 -9.71% -17.43%
$ 75.99 $ 116.06 $ 118.60 49.02% 48.13%
$ 75.09 $ 116.44 $ 128.05 -1.51% -9.15%
$ 110.18 $ 116.64 $ 133.78 46.57% 42.27%
$ 145.38 $ 116.84 $ 140.49 31.77% 26.93%
$ 94.00 $ 117.19 $ 142.43 -35.64% -36.72%
$ 121.53 $ 117.29 $ 148.43 29.21% 25.07%
$ 120.20 $ 117.33 $ 154.98 -1.14% -5.51%
$ 107.37 $ 117.36 $ 163.35 -10.70% -16.08%
$ 93.66 $ 117.46 $ 160.04 -12.85% -10.75%
$ 111.61 $ 117.85 $ 163.72 18.84% 16.88%
$ 139.59 $ 118.30 $ 167.79 24.68% 22.57%
$ 166.15 $ 118.75 $ 172.12 18.65% 16.45%
$ 225.67 $ 119.20 $ 178.67 35.44% 32.02%
$ 206.65 $ 119.65 $ 184.26 -8.81% -11.56%
$ 217.39 $ 120.33 $ 185.95 4.63% 4.28%
$ 229.79 $ 121.56 $ 189.58 4.68% 3.75%
$ 271.85 $ 122.90 $ 198.42 17.20% 13.64%

Page 23
 Returns by year

$ 355.60 $ 124.34 $ 199.27 29.63% 30.38%

$ 439.80 $ 126.18 $ 198.68 22.20% 23.97%
$ 519.62 $ 128.29 $ 203.19 16.48% 15.88%
$ 513.35 $ 130.72 $ 211.61 -3.10% -5.35%
$ 783.18 $ 131.98 $ 218.57 51.60% 49.27%
$ 1,038.47 $ 134.17 $ 215.65 30.94% 33.93%
$ 1,115.73 $ 137.60 $ 210.79 4.88% 9.70%
$ 999.05 $ 142.04 $ 225.11 -13.69% -17.25%
$ 1,435.84 $ 144.57 $ 220.39 41.94% 45.82%
$ 1,608.95 $ 149.27 $ 214.56 8.80% 14.70%
$ 1,614.37 $ 153.82 $ 239.53 -2.71% -11.30%
$ 2,044.40 $ 157.30 $ 244.46 24.37% 24.58%
$ 1,864.26 $ 161.67 $ 258.38 -11.59% -14.51%
$ 2,285.80 $ 166.70 $ 262.74 19.50% 20.93%
$ 2,661.02 $ 172.54 $ 272.53 12.91% 12.69%
$ 2,990.97 $ 179.28 $ 274.49 8.50% 11.68%
$ 2,692.74 $ 187.95 $ 282.47 -14.81% -12.88%
$ 3,333.69 $ 196.10 $ 278.01 19.47% 25.38%
$ 3,694.23 $ 206.41 $ 287.11 5.55% 7.54%
$ 3,389.77 $ 219.96 $ 272.71 -14.80% -3.23%
$ 3,510.49 $ 234.66 $ 318.41 -3.12% -13.19%
$ 4,009.72 $ 245.32 $ 349.57 9.68% 4.43%
$ 4,761.76 $ 255.01 $ 359.42 14.80% 15.94%
$ 4,080.44 $ 272.16 $ 372.57 -21.03% -17.97%
$ 3,023.54 $ 293.33 $ 379.98 -33.68% -27.89%
$ 4,142.10 $ 310.90 $ 393.68 31.01% 33.39%
$ 5,129.20 $ 326.35 $ 456.61 18.86% 7.85%
$ 4,771.20 $ 343.09 $ 462.50 -12.11% -8.27%
$ 5,081.77 $ 366.87 $ 458.90 -0.42% 7.29%
$ 6,022.89 $ 403.33 $ 461.98 8.58% 17.85%
$ 7,934.26 $ 448.58 $ 448.17 20.52% 34.72%
$ 7,561.16 $ 512.73 $ 484.91 -19.00% -12.90%
$ 9,105.08 $ 569.18 $ 644.04 9.41% -12.40%
$ 11,138.90 $ 617.26 $ 664.65 13.89% 19.14%
$ 11,823.51 $ 676.60 $ 755.92 -3.47% -7.59%
$ 15,516.60 $ 727.26 $ 950.29 23.75% 5.52%
$ 18,386.33 $ 771.15 $ 1,181.06 12.46% -5.79%
$ 19,455.08 $ 815.27 $ 1,122.47 0.09% 10.77%
$ 22,672.40 $ 867.86 $ 1,214.78 10.09% 8.31%
$ 29,808.58 $ 938.24 $ 1,429.72 23.37% 13.78%
$ 28,895.11 $ 1,009.08 $ 1,518.87 -10.61% -9.30%

Page 24
 Returns by year

$ 37,631.51 $ 1,065.69 $ 1,746.77 24.62% 15.23%

$ 40,451.51 $ 1,101.98 $ 1,910.30 4.09% -1.87%
$ 44,483.33 $ 1,134.84 $ 2,181.77 6.98% -4.24%
$ 45,073.14 $ 1,180.07 $ 2,006.43 -2.66% 9.36%
$ 61,838.19 $ 1,245.15 $ 2,477.55 31.68% 13.71%
$ 75,863.69 $ 1,307.68 $ 2,512.94 17.66% 21.25%
$ 100,977.34 $ 1,373.76 $ 2,762.71 28.05% 23.16%
$ 129,592.25 $ 1,438.70 $ 3,174.95 23.61% 13.42%
$ 156,658.05 $ 1,503.58 $ 2,912.88 16.38% 29.14%
$ 142,508.98 $ 1,590.23 $ 3,398.03 -14.79% -25.69%
$ 125,622.01 $ 1,648.63 $ 3,587.37 -15.52% -17.42%
$ 98,027.82 $ 1,675.96 $ 4,129.65 -23.62% -37.08%
$ 125,824.39 $ 1,693.22 $ 4,145.15 27.33% 27.98%
$ 139,341.42 $ 1,714.00 $ 4,331.30 9.52% 6.25%
$ 146,077.85 $ 1,765.59 $ 4,455.50 1.82% 1.97%
$ 168,884.34 $ 1,848.18 $ 4,542.87 10.94% 13.65%
$ 178,147.20 $ 1,933.98 $ 5,006.69 0.84% -4.73%
$ 113,030.22 $ 1,964.64 $ 6,013.10 -38.14% -56.65%
$ 142,344.87 $ 1,967.29 $ 5,344.65 25.80% 37.05%
$ 163,441.94 $ 1,969.84 $ 5,796.96 14.69% 6.36%
$ 166,871.56 $ 1,970.44 $ 6,726.52 2.07% -13.94%
$ 193,388.43 $ 1,971.42 $ 6,926.40 15.84% 12.92%
$ 255,553.31 $ 1,972.72 $ 6,295.79 32.08% 41.25%
$ 290,115.42 $ 1,973.77 $ 6,972.34 13.47% 2.78%
$ 294,060.84 $ 1,977.91 $ 7,061.89 1.15% 0.08%
Risk Premium Standard Error
Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds
7.92% 6.18% 2.15% 2.29%
6.05% 3.89% 2.42% 2.74%
7.87% 3.88% 6.06% 8.66%
Risk Premium
Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds
6.05% 4.54%
4.69% 2.90%
6.11% 2.53%

Page 25
 Returns by year

s and over the last 10 years

Historical risk premium

Page 26
 Returns by year

6.11%
6.62%
5.97%
6.36%
6.53%
6.66%
6.11%
6.57%
6.60%
6.33%
5.90%
5.87%
6.08%
5.50%
4.64%
5.17%
5.22%
4.93%
4.97%
5.21%
5.73%
5.37%
5.10%
5.34%
5.12%
5.13%
4.97%
5.07%
5.12%
5.24%
5.00%

Page 27
 Returns by year

5.14%
5.03%
4.90%
4.97%
5.08%
5.30%
5.53%
5.63%
5.96%
5.51%
5.17%
4.53%
4.82%
4.84%
4.80%
4.91%
4.79%
3.88%
4.29%
4.31%
4.10%
4.20%
4.62%
4.60%
4.54%

Page 28
 FUENTE BLOOMBERG
COLOMBIA FECHA: 18 NOVIEMBRE DE 2016
Date Últ precio
1/31/2012 3.54
2/29/2012 3.55 2012 2013 2014
3/31/2012 3.4 3.17% 2.02% 2.90%
4/30/2012 3.43
5/31/2012 3.44
6/30/2012 3.2
7/31/2012 3.03
8/31/2012 3.11
9/30/2012 3.08
10/31/2012 3.06
11/30/2012 2.77
12/31/2012 2.44
1/31/2013 2
2/28/2013 1.83
3/31/2013 1.91
4/30/2013 2.02
5/31/2013 2
6/30/2013 2.16
7/31/2013 2.22
8/31/2013 2.27
9/30/2013 2.27
10/31/2013 1.84
11/30/2013 1.76
12/31/2013 1.94
1/31/2014 2.13
2/28/2014 2.32
3/31/2014 2.51
4/30/2014 2.72
5/31/2014 2.93
6/30/2014 2.79
7/31/2014 2.89
8/31/2014 3.02
9/30/2014 2.86
10/31/2014 3.29
11/30/2014 3.65
12/31/2014 3.66
1/31/2015 3.82
2/28/2015 4.36
3/31/2015 4.56
4/30/2015 4.64
 5/31/2015 4.41
6/30/2015 4.42
7/31/2015 4.46
8/31/2015 4.74
9/30/2015 5.35
10/31/2015 5.89
11/30/2015 6.39
12/31/2015 6.77
 EEUU
Date Últ precio
1/31/2012 2.6
2015 2/29/2012 2.5 2012 2013
4.98% 3/31/2012 2.4 1.90% 1.31%
4/30/2012 2.1
5/31/2012 1.7
6/30/2012 1.6
7/31/2012 1.4
8/31/2012 1.5
9/30/2012 1.7
10/31/2012 1.9
11/30/2012 1.7
12/31/2012 1.7
1/31/2013 1.5
2/28/2013 1.7
3/31/2013 1.3
4/30/2013 1.1
5/31/2013 1.2
6/30/2013 1.4
7/31/2013 1.5
8/31/2013 1.3
9/30/2013 1.1
10/31/2013 1
11/30/2013 1.2
12/31/2013 1.4
1/31/2014 1.5
2/28/2014 1.1
3/31/2014 1.4
4/30/2014 1.7
5/31/2014 1.8
6/30/2014 1.7
7/31/2014 1.8
8/31/2014 1.6
9/30/2014 1.6
10/31/2014 1.5
11/30/2014 1.3
12/31/2014 0.9
1/31/2015 0.3
2/28/2015 0.4
3/31/2015 0.4
4/30/2015 0.2
 5/31/2015 0.3
6/30/2015 0.4
7/31/2015 0.4
8/31/2015 0.4
9/30/2015 0.2
10/31/2015 0.3
11/30/2015 0.5
12/31/2015 0.6
 2014 2015
1.49% 0.37%
Los inversionistas utilizan el EMBI (Emerging Markets Bonds Index), el cual es calculado por J.P. Morgan Chase basado en el comportamiento de la deuda externa emitida por
cada país. Mientras menor certeza de que el país honrará sus obligaciones, más alto será el EMBI de dicho país, y viceversa.
El EMBI es la diferencia (SPREAD) entre las tasas de interés que pagan los bonos denominados en dó lares, emitidos por países subdesarrollados, y los Bonos del Tesoro de Estados
Unidos, considerados "libres" de riesgo.
(Tasa bonos del tesoro + EMBI de país determinado) = la tasa mínima que exigiría un inversionista para invertir en ese país .