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    Stat13 Lecture17

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    Kosygin Leishangthem
    This document covers several examples of calculating conditional probabilities: - The probability of a SARS death case being from China given that it is a SARS death case. - The probability that a randomly selected student is a non-life science freshman given information about enrollment percentages. - The probability that a student selected who is not a freshman majors in life science. - The probability that a coin selected from one of two drawers is fake, and the conditional probability that it came from the first drawer given that it is fake.

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    Stat13 Lecture17

    Uploaded by

    Kosygin Leishangthem
    24 views5 pages
    This document covers several examples of calculating conditional probabilities: - The probability of a SARS death case being from China given that it is a SARS death case. - The probability that a randomly selected student is a non-life science freshman given information about enrollment percentages. - The probability that a student selected who is not a freshman majors in life science. - The probability that a coin selected from one of two drawers is fake, and the conditional probability that it came from the first drawer given that it is fake.

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    stat13-lecture17

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    This document covers several examples of calculating conditional probabilities: - The probability of a SARS death case being from China given that it is a SARS death case. - The probability that a randomly selected student is a non-life science freshman given information about enrollment percentages. - The probability that a student selected who is not a freshman majors in life science. - The probability that a coin selected from one of two drawers is fake, and the conditional probability that it came from the first drawer given that it is fake.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    24 views5 pages

    Stat13 Lecture17

    Uploaded by

    Kosygin Leishangthem
    This document covers several examples of calculating conditional probabilities: - The probability of a SARS death case being from China given that it is a SARS death case. - The probability that a randomly selected student is a non-life science freshman given information about enrollment percentages. - The probability that a student selected who is not a freshman majors in life science. - The probability that a coin selected from one of two drawers is fake, and the conditional probability that it came from the first drawer given that it is fake.

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    Lecture17conditional

    probability

    Example:SARS
    Samplespace,basicoutcome,andevent
    Basicrule
    AandB(inbothAandB),AorB(ineitherAorBor
    both)
    ConditionalprobabilityofBgivenA
    =P{B|A}=P{AandB}/P{A}
    ProbabilityofdeathforChina
    GivenaSARSdeathcase,whatistheprobabilitythatthe
    caseisfromChina?


    Classenrollment:byyearandbymajor
    Year:freshman,sophomore,junior,senior
    Major,lifescience,socialscience,math
    science,

    Classenrollment:byyearandbymajor
    Year:freshman,sophomore,junior,senior
    Major,lifescience,socialscience,mathscience,
    A=freshman,B=lifescience
    AandB=lifesciencefreshman
    P(A)=30%,P(B)=35%,P(AandB)=25%
    FindP(nonlifesciencefreshman)
    Randomlyselectastudent.Itturnsoutthathe/sheisnot
    afreshman.Whatistheprobabilitythathe/shemajorsin
    lifescience?

    Prisonersdilemma
    Threeprisoners,A,B,Careinjail.Oneofthemisto
    beexecutedandtheothertwowillbesetfree.
    PrisonerAaskedtheguard:oneofmypartnersBor
    Cwillbesetfree.Couldyoupleasetellmewhichone
    ofthemwillbesetfree?
    GuardthoughtawhileandtoldA:IfIdonottell
    you,thenyourchanceofdeathis1/3.ButifItell
    you,thenthereareonlytwoleftandyouareoneof
    themtobekilled.Yourchanceofdeathwillbe1/2.
    Doyoureallywanttoincreaseyourchanceofdeath?

    DrawersAandB
    Ahasagoodcoinandafake
    coin
    Bhastwogoodcoinsanda
    fakecoin
    Openadrawerandpickacoin.
    Chanceofgettingfakeone.
    Giventhefakeoneisselected,
    whatisthechancethatitcame
    fromdrawerA?

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