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3
C H A P T E R
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 8. Any late start or extension of an activity on the critical path
will delay the completion of the project.
1. There are many possible answers. Project management is
needed in large construction jobs, in implementing new 9. To crash an activity, the project manager would pay money
information systems, in new product development/marketing, in to add resources (overtime, extra help).
creating a new assembly line, and so on. 10. Activity times used in PERT are assumed to be described by
2. Project organizations make sure existing programs continue to a Beta probability distribution. Given optimistic (a), pessimistic
run smoothly while new projects are successfully completed. (b), and most likely (m), completion times, average or expected
time is given by:
3. The three phases involved in managing a large project are
planning, scheduling, and controlling. a 4m b
t
4. PERT and CPM help answer questions relating to which task 6
elements are on (or likely to be on) the critical path and to proba- and the variance by:
ble completion times for the overall project. Some specific
b a
2
questions include:
Variance
When will the entire project be completed?
6
Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project; that
is, the activities that will delay the entire project if 11. Early start (ES) of an activity is the latest of the early finish
completed behind schedule? times of all its predecessors. Early finish (EF) is the early start of
Which are the noncritical activities; that is, those that can
an activity plus its duration. Late finish (LF) of an activity is the
run behind schedule without delaying the whole project? earliest of the late start times of all successor activities. Late start
How far behind schedule can these activities run without (LS) of an activity is its late finish less its duration.
disrupting the completion time? 12. The critical path is the shortest time possible for the
What is the probability that the project will be completed completion of a series of activities, but that shortest time is the
by a specific date? longest path through the network. Only the longest path allows
At any particular date, is the project on schedule, behind time for all
schedule, or ahead of schedule? activities in the series; any smaller amount will leave activities
On any given date, is the money spent equal to, less than, unfinished.
or greater than the budgeted amount? 13. Dummy activities have no time duration. They are inserted
Are there enough resources available to finish the project into a AOA network to maintain the logic of the network, such as
on time? when two activities have exactly the same beginning and ending
If the project is required to be finished in a shorter amount events. A dummy activity is inserted with one of them so that the
of time, what is the least-cost way to accomplish this? computer software can handle the problem.
5. WBS is a hierarchial subdivision of effort required to achieve 14. They are (1) optimistic time estimate (a), an estimate of the
an objective. It defines a project by breaking it down into manage- minimum time an activity will require; (2) most likely time
able parts and even finer subdivisions. estimate (m), an estimate of the normal time an activity will
6. A Gantt chart is a visual device that shows the duration of require; and (3) pessimistic time estimate (b), an estimate of the
tasks in a project. It is a low-cost means of ensuring that (1) all maximum time an activity will require.
activities are planned for, (2) their order of performance is 15. No. In networks, there is no possibility that crashing a non-
planned for, (3) the activity times are recorded, and (4) the overall critical task can reduce the project duration. Only critical tasks
project time is developed. offer the possibility of reducing path length. However, other
7. The difference between AOA and AON is that activities are criteria for crashing may exist: for instance, skills required in one
shown on arrows in the former and on the node in the latter. We of the activities may also be needed elsewhere.
primarily use AON in this chapter. 16. Total PERT project variance is computed as the sum of the
variances of all activities on the critical path.
10
CHAPTER 3 P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T 11
17. Slack: the amount of time an activity can be delayed and not In every case, quality project management means open
affect the overall completion time of the whole project. Slack can communication, realistic timetables, good staff, and use of
be determined by finding the difference between the earliest start software like MSProject to build and maintain a schedule.
time and the latest start time, or the earliest finish time and the lat- Bidding on a contract with a schedule that is not feasible may be
est finish time for a given activity. unethical as well as poor business.
18. If there are a sufficient number of tasks along the critical
path, we can assume that project completion time is described by a Active Model Exercise
normal probability distribution with mean equal to the sum of the
expected times of all activities on the critical path and variance ACTIVE MODEL 3.1: Gantt Chart
equal to the sum of the variances of all activities on the critical 1. Both A and H are critical activities. Describe the difference
path. between what happens on the graph when you increase A vs.
The fundamental assumption required is that the number of increasing H.
activities on the critical path is large enough that the mean of the When you increase H, it is the only task to change on the
sum of the Beta distributions is distributed approximately as the chart. However, when you increase A then all critical tasks
normal distribution. move to the right and the slack for the noncritical tasks
increases.
19. Widely used project management software include
TimeLine, MS Project, MacProject, Harvard Total Project 2. Activity F is not critical. By how many weeks can you
Manager, Primavera, and PERTmaster. increase activity F until it becomes critical?
6 weeks
ETHICAL DILEMMA 3. Activity B is not critical. By how many weeks can you
Large projects with time/cost overruns are not uncommon increase activity B until it becomes critical? What happens when
situations in the world of project management. Why do MIS B becomes critical?
projects commonly sport 200–300% cost overruns and completion 1 week. Activity D also becomes critical.
times twice that projected? Why do massive construction projects 4. What happens when you increase B by 1 more week after it
run so late and so over budget? becomes critical?
Students are expected to read about such projects and come Activities A, C, and E become noncritical, and the project
up with explanations, especially related to ethics. In the case of takes 1 additional week.
MIS projects, long software development tasks are almost 5. Suppose that building codes may change and, as a result,
doomed to failure because of the changes in technology and staff activity B would have to be completed before activity C could be
that take place. It’s a necessity to break large projects down into started. How would this affect the project?
smaller 3- to 6-month modules or pieces that are self-contained. Activity B becomes critical, and the project takes 1
This protects the organization from a total loss should the massive additional week.
project never be completed.
12 CHAPTER 3 P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
END-OF-CHAPTER PROBLEMS
3.1 Some possible Level 3[(a)] and Level 4[(b)] activities for the house appear for each Level 2 activity below.
CHAPTER 3 P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T 13
3.4
Path Time
(hours)
A–C–E–G 19.5
B–D–F–G 24.9
A–C–D–F–G 28.7 (critical)
B–E–G 15.7
3.6 (a)
3.5 The paths through this network are J–L–O, J–M–P,
J–M–N–O, K–P, and K–N–O. Their path durations are 23, 18, 22,
13, and 17. J–L–O is the critical path; its duration is 23.
14 CHAPTER 3 P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
3.8 3.12 (a)
(b, c)
Task Time ES EF LS LF Slack
A 9 0 9 0 9 0
B 7 9 16 9 16 0
C 3 9 12 18 21 9
3.9 (a) AON network: D 6 16 22 20 26 4
E 9 16 25 16 25 0
F 4 12 16 21 25 9
G 6 25 31 25 31 0
H 5 22 27 26 31 4
I 3 31 34 31 34 0
Activities on the critical path: A, B, E, G, I
Project completion time 34
3.13
a +4m + b b a
Activity a m b t= =
6 6
A 11 15 19 15 1.33
(b) AOA network: B 27 31 41 32 2.33
C 18 18 18 18 0
D 8 13 19 13.17 1.83
E 17 18 20 18.17 0.5
F 16 19 22 19 1
3.14 (a)
Activity a m b Expected Variance
3.10 A 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
B 2 4 4 3.67 0.11
C 1 2 3 2.00 0.11
D 6 7 8 7.00 0.11
E 2 4 6 4.00 0.44
F 6 10 14 10.00 1.78
G 1 2 4 2.17 0.25
H 3 6 9 6.00 1.00
I 10 11 12 11.00 0.11
J 14 16 20 16.33 1.00
K 2 8 10 7.33 1.78
Note: Activity times are shown as an aid for Problem 3.11. They are not (b, c)
required in the solution to 3.10. Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Critical
3.11 A 5.83 0.00 5.83 7.17 13.00 7.17 No
B 3.67 0.00 3.67 5.33 9.00 5.33 No
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Critical
C 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 Yes
A 6 0 6 2 8 2 No D 7.00 2.00 9.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 Yes
B 7 0 7 0 7 0 Yes E 4.00 9.00 13.00 9.00 13.00 0.00 Yes
C 3 6 9 8 11 2 No
F 10.00 13.00 23.00 13.00 23.00 0.00 Yes
D 2 6 8 12 14 6 No
G 2.17 13.00 15.17 15.83 18.00 2.83 No
E 4 7 11 7 11 0 Yes
H 6.00 23.00 29.00 23.00 29.00 0.00 Yes
F 6 7 13 8 14 1 No
I 11.00 15.17 26.17 18.00 29.00 2.83 No
G 10 11 21 11 21 0 Yes
J 16.33 2.00 18.33 20.00 36.33 18.00 No
H 7 13 20 14 21 1 No
K 7.33 29.00 36.33 29.00 36.33 0.00 Yes
The critical path is given for activities B, E, G.
Total project completion time is 21 days.
CHAPTER 3 P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T 15
3.22 (a)
Activity a m b Expected Time Variance Activity Early Early Late Late
Activity Time Start Finish Start Finish Slack
A 4 6 7 5.83 0.25*
B 1 2 3 2.00 0.11 A 2.16 0 2.16 10.13 12.3 10.13
C 6 6 6 6.00 0.00* B 3.5 0 3.5 11.88 15.38 11.88
D 5 8 11 8.00 1.00 C 11.83 0 11.83 0 11.83 0
E 1 9 18 9.17 8.03* D 5.16 0 5.16 14.65 19.82 14.65
F 2 3 6 3.33 0.44 E 3.83 0 3.83 15.98 19.82 15.98
G 1 7 8 6.17 1.36 F 7 2.17 9.16 12.3 19.3 10.13
H 4 4 6 4.33 0.11* G 3.92 3.5 7.42 15.38 19.3 11.88
I 1 6 8 5.50 1.36* H 7.47 11.83 19.3 11.83 19.3 0
J 2 5 7 4.83 0.69 I 10.32 11.83 22.15 14.9 25.22 3.06
K 8 9 11 9.17 0.25* J 3.83 11.83 15.66 19.98 23.82 8.15
L 2 4 6 4.00 0.44 K 4 5.16 9.16 19.82 23.82 14.65
M 1 2 3 2.00 0.11* L 4 3.83 7.83 19.82 23.82 15.98
N 6 8 10 8.00 0.44* M 5.92 19.3 25.22 19.3 25.22 0
N 1.23 15.66 16.9 23.82 22.05 8.15
O 6.83 25.22 32.05 25.22 32.05 0
Activit Time ES EF LS LF Slack Critical
P 7 16.9 23.9 25.05 32.05 8.15
y
A 5.83 0.00 5.83 0.00 5.83 0.00 Yes
B 2.00 0.00 2.00 9.83 11.83 9.83 No
C 6.00 5.83 11.83 5.83 11.83 0.00 Yes
D 8.00 5.83 13.83 9.67 17.67 3.84 No
E 9.17 11.83 21.00 11.83 21.00 0.00 Yes
F 3.33 13.83 17.16 17.67 21.00 3.84 No
G 6.17 13.83 20.00 19.16 25.33 5.33 No
H 4.33 21.00 25.33 21.00 25.33 0.00 Yes
I 5.50 25.33 30.83 25.33 30.83 0.00 Yes
J 4.83 30.83 35.66 33.17 38.00 2.34 No
K 9.17 30.83 40.00 30.83 40.00 0.00 Yes
L 4.00 35.66 39.66 38.00 42.00 2.34 No
M 2.00 40.00 42.00 40.00 42.00 0.00 Yes
N 8.00 42.00 50.00 42.00 50.00 0.00 Yes
(b) As can be seen in the following analysis, the changes
The critical path is given by activities A, C, E, H, I, K, M, N. do not have any impact on the critical path or the total
Completion time is 50 days. project completion time. A summary of the analysis is
(b) P(Completion in 53 days). Variances on critical path below.
= 10.55 so, cp = 3.25. Project completion time 32.05
53 50
P t 53 P z P z 0.92 0.821 82.1% Project standard deviation 1.00
3.25
Activity Early Early Late Late
(c) Activity Time Start Finish Start Finish Slack
é x - 50 ù
P êz £ ú A 2.16 0 2.16 10.13 12.3 10.13
ê
ë 3.25 úû B 3.5 0 3.5 11.88 15.38 11.88
where z = 2.33 for 99% probability. C 11.83 0 11.83 0 11.83 0
x - 50 D 5.16 0 5.16 14.65 19.82 14.65
so 2.33 = . Then
3.25 E 3.83 0 3.83 15.98 19.82 15.98
x = 50 + (2.33)(3.25) = 57.57 @58 days F 7 2.16 9.16 12.3 19.3 10.13
G 3.92 3.5 7.42 15.38 19.3 11.88
3.23 (a) This project management problem can be solved using
H 7.46 11.83 19.3 11.83 19.3 0
PERT. The results are below. As you can see, the total project
I 0 11.83 11.83 25.22 25.22 13.38
completion time is about 32 weeks. The critical path consists of
J 0 11.83 11.83 23.82 23.82 11.98
activities C, H, M, and O.
K 4 5.16 9.16 19.82 23.82 14.65
Project completion time 32.05 L 4 3.83 7.83 19.82 23.82 15.98
9 16 2.25 9 M 5.92 19.3 25.22 19.3 25.22 0
Project variance = + + + » 1.00
36 36 36 36 N 1.23 11.83 13.06 23.82 22.05 11.98
O 6.83 25.22 32.05 25.22 32.05 0
Project standard deviation 1.00
P 7 13.06 20.06 25.05 32.05 11.98
18 CHAPTER 3 P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T
Network diagram
The following table indicates the expected times, variances, and slacks needed to complete the rest of the case:
Most
Activity Opt Likely Pess E(t) ES EF LS LF Slack
1 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.92 0.25 0.00 1.92 0.00 1.92 0.000
2 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.00 0.17 1.92 3.92 1.92 3.92 0.000
3 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.00 0.33 3.92 6.92 3.92 6.92 0.000
4 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 3.92 5.92 22.50 24.50 18.580
5 1.0 2.0 4.0 2.17 0.50 3.92 6.08 10.25 12.42 6.333
6 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.50 0.17 3.92 6.42 13.42 15.92 9.500
7 2.0 4.0 5.0 3.83 0.50 3.92 7.75 29.58 33.42 25.670
8 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 6.92 8.92 6.92 8.92 0.000
9 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.17 5.92 7.42 26.67 28.17 20.750
10 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.17 5.92 7.42 24.50 26.00 18.580
11 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.50 0.17 6.08 8.58 19.92 22.42 13.830
12 15.0 20.0 30.0 20.83 2.50 6.08 26.92 12.42 33.25 6.330
13 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.17 6.42 7.92 15.92 17.42 9.500
14 3.0 5.0 8.0 5.17 0.83 6.42 11.58 28.08 33.25 21.670
15 3.0 8.0 15.0 8.33 2.00 7.75 16.08 33.42 41.75 25.670
16 14.0 21.0 28.0 21.00 2.33 8.92 29.92 8.92 29.92 0.000
17 1.0 5.0 10.0 5.17 1.50 7.42 12.58 28.17 33.33 20.750
18 2.0 5.0 10.0 5.33 1.33 7.42 12.75 26.00 31.33 18.580
19 5.0 10.0 20.0 10.83 2.50 8.58 19.42 22.42 33.25 13.830
20 10.0 15.0 25.0 15.83 2.50 7.92 23.75 17.42 33.25 9.500
21 4.0 5.0 8.0 5.33 0.67 29.92 35.25 29.92 35.25 0.000
22 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 12.75 14.75 31.33 33.33 18.580
23 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.92 0.25 14.75 16.67 33.33 35.25 18.580
24 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 26.92 28.92 33.25 35.25 6.330
25 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 23.75 25.75 33.25 35.25 9.500
26 2.0 4.0 6.0 4.00 0.67 16.08 20.08 41.75 45.75 25.670
27 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.00 0.17 35.25 37.25 35.25 37.25 0.000
28 1.0 3.0 5.0 3.00 0.67 37.25 40.25 37.25 40.25 0.000
29 3.0 5.0 10.0 5.50 1.17 40.25 45.75 40.25 45.75 0.000
From the table, we can see that the expected shutdown time is 45.75, or 46 days. There are nine activities on the critical path.