Campaigns Elections and The Threat To Democracy What Everyone Needs To Know 2Nd Edition Dennis W Johnson Full Chapter
Campaigns Elections and The Threat To Democracy What Everyone Needs To Know 2Nd Edition Dennis W Johnson Full Chapter
Campaigns Elections and The Threat To Democracy What Everyone Needs To Know 2Nd Edition Dennis W Johnson Full Chapter
2nd Edition
DENNIS W. JOHNSON
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and educationby publishing worldwide.
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Paperback printed by Lakeside Book Company, United States of America
Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America
For Pat, with all my love
CONTENTS
How do some states gain and some states lose congressional seats
following reapportionment? 24
Why has redistricting been such a problem? 26
What are the requirements for creating legislative districts? 28
Who makes the decision about redistricting legislative districts? 28
What is partisan “gerrymandering”? How far can it go before it is
unconstitutional? 29
Has there been any attempt to take redistricting and gerrymandering
out of the hands of partisan legislators? 32
Why do all states get two senators no matter how big—or
small—they are? 33
When did the two major political parties play an important role in
elections and campaigns? 35
The South was once very Democratic but now is largely Republican.
What happened? 36
Contents ix
5 Presidential Elections 65
Can anyone run for president, or is that just an old American myth? 65
Why do presidential elections last so long? 66
Why do we have so many primaries and caucuses? 67
What’s the difference between a caucus and a primary? 68
Why does Iowa go first? 70
How do you become a party delegate? What’s a “superdelegate”? 71
What is the Electoral College and how does it work? 72
Why did the Founding Fathers decide that we needed the Electoral
College to determine presidential elections? 75
Who are the electors, and how do you get to be one? 76
What if “faithless” electors refuse to vote for the winner of the
popular ballot? 77
What if the president-elect dies before the Electoral College meets? 78
What happens if no candidate receives 270 votes when the Electoral
College tallies the votes? 79
What’s the “winner-take-all” system? 81
What is a “battleground” state? 82
What states have had the most consistent record in voting on the
winning side of presidential elections? 82
How close have recent presidential contests been? 83
What about third-party candidates, with no chance of winning,
acting as spoilers? 83
How much money is spent in presidential elections? Do the
candidates (and their allies) who spend the most money always win? 85
What kinds of reforms have been suggested for our lengthy primary
and caucus season? 86
Why don’t we just have a nationwide election where whoever gets
the most votes wins, and not worry about the Electoral College vote? 88
What is the idea of a national popular-vote compact? 89
Contents xi
How well has the FEC performed its job of enforcing campaign-
finance rules? 143
Didn’t the IRS get in trouble for trying to oversee these organizations? 144
Where does all that campaign money go? 144
What are the most expensive campaigns at the federal (but not
presidential) level? 145
Do candidates who amass the most money always win? 147
What about self-funded candidates? 147
Where are we now with federal campaign laws? 149
Why can’t candidates just run on their own, without the need for
consultants and handlers? 151
What are the key elements of any successful political campaign? 152
What do you mean by political consultants, and what kinds of
services do they provide? 154
What do media consultants provide? 154
What do pollsters do for a campaign? 155
How much information do political campaigns have on the average
voter? 156
Who have been some of the most important political consultants
over the years, and where are they now? 157
In 2016, it was Hillary Clinton’s race to lose. How did her consultants
and strategists get it wrong, and did Trump show that consultants
aren’t all that necessary or smart in getting a candidate elected? 158
What about Trump versus Biden in 2020? How did the campaign
strategies fare? 161
NOTES 213
FURTHER READING 239
INDEX 241
PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION: WHY
YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CAMPAIGNS,
ELECTIONS, AND THE THREAT
TO DEMOCRACY
This book will try to sort out what is real, what is confusing,
and what everyone should know about campaigns and
elections. It poses 157 questions and answers that are based
on federal law and court decisions, the findings of scholars
and campaign practitioners, and an analysis of historical
events.
Preface xxi
plus one vote), just the most votes. The second version is the
majority-voting method, in which the winning candidate must
receive a majority of the votes. When there are many candidates
and none receives a majority, states and other jurisdictions
with majority systems will hold a runoff between the top two
candidates.
Our presidential election system, of course, is also a single-
winner system, but the outcome depends not on popular
vote but on having the majority of electors from the Electoral
College. We’ll see in much more detail how the Electoral
College works in chapter 5 and examine in depth the problems
found in the 2020 election in chapters 6 and 7.
We also have a multiple-winner system. This usually occurs
at the local level in cities and counties, and the chief feature
is that several candidates are declared winners. For example,
there might be four available seats in a local at-large elec-
tion and seven candidates. The top four vote-getters will be
declared the winners.
Another system, called ranked-choice voting (RCV), is used
in a number of municipalities, including San Francisco and
Minneapolis, and it is employed statewide in Maine. In total,
RCV has now been adopted in fifteen states, from Alaska to
Florida. Instead of just choosing one candidate, voters rank
their preferences. When there are multiple candidates, if the
top vote-getter doesn’t receive a majority, then the candidate
with the lowest number of votes will be eliminated. At that
point, the voters’ second choices will be considered. Ultimately,
a winner will emerge with a majority of the votes. In 2018, a
congressman from Maine lost his bid for re-election under a
newly installed RCV system. He had the highest number of
votes, but not a majority. When the votes were calculated using
the RCV method, his opponent gained more than 50 percent of
the vote and was declared the winner. The effect is very similar
to a runoff election, and has the benefit of ensuring that an out-
lier candidate who gains perhaps only 15 percent to 20 percent
of the vote doesn’t come in first in a multicandidate race.
Voting and Participation 3
The biggest recent test of RCV was in the New York City
mayoral primary, held in June 2021, with eight candidates
vying for the Democratic nomination. In this very public con-
test, RCV may have been confusing to voters, but even more
so to city election officials, who struggled to come up with the
eventual winner.
court determined that there was clear evidence that these two
laws made it harder for persons of color to vote. But when
the case reached the Supreme Court, in Brnovich v. Democratic
National Committee,9 the majority of justices ruled otherwise.
The 6-to-3 conservative majority determined that the states
have a legitimate right to root out voting fraud and that the
Voting Rights Act, through Section 2, provided just limited
power to overturn state law or practice. Through Justice Samuel
Alito, the court reasoned that the Voting Rights Act could be
used to strike down measures only when they imposed sub-
stantial and disproportionate burdens on minority voters.
“Where a state provides multiple ways to vote, any burden
imposed on voters who choose of the available options cannot
be evaluated without also taking into account the other means
available,” wrote Alito. Thus, the Arizona laws, and presum-
ably many of the other restrictive laws winding their way
through state legislatures, could not be considered violations
of the now watered-down version of the Voting Rights Act.
This did not sit well with the three liberals on the court. In
her dissenting opinion, Justice Elena Kagan wrote that the ma-
jority had done great harm to the Voting Rights Act, stating
that the majority ruling was a devastating blow to the nation’s
ideals. “Whenever it can, the majority gives a cramped reading
to broad language. And then it uses that reading to uphold two
election laws from Arizona that discriminate against minority
voters. . . . What is tragic is that the court has damaged a statute
designed to bring about ‘the end of discrimination in voting.’ ”
President Joe Biden weighed in, stating that the court “has
now done severe damage” to the Voting Rights Act. “After all
we have been through to deliver the promise of this nation to
all Americans, we should be fully enforcing voting rights laws,
not weakening them.”10
In the final section of this book, c hapter 12, we’ll look fur-
ther at the efforts to dismantle the Voting Rights Act and the
counterattempts to expand and protect voting rights and
access.
8 Campaigns, Elections, Threat to Democracy
and that the greater the participation, the better it is for democ-
racy. But in reality, there have been repeated efforts to curtail
participation, and the burden falls heavily on minority citi-
zens. This is nothing new.
We have had a long and ugly history of racial discrim-
ination and deprivation of the fundamental democratic
value, the right to vote. The South, dominated by Democrats
during much of the post–Civil War period through the 1960s,
suppressed African American voting until the federal govern-
ment intervened by passing the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The
Civil Rights Act, passed the year before, and the Voting Rights
Act received key support from moderate Republicans, while
Southern Democrats fought vigorously against these federal
protections. President Lyndon Johnson is reported to have
said, “There goes the South,” meaning that White Southern
voters would abandon the Democratic Party in droves. He
was right. President Richard Nixon, a Republican, exploited
what he called the “Southern strategy,” wooing White voters
away from their traditional home in the Democratic Party,
capturing those who supported Alabama governor George
Wallace. Nixon courted White southerners with his racially
coded pleas for “law and order.” African Americans stayed
with the Democratic Party and became its main source of po-
litical power in the South.
Minorities are increasingly voting for the Democratic
Party; the Republican Party is increasingly seen as the
“White party.” (There is more on the political parties in
chapter 3.) Gerrymandering against minorities becomes easier
when “Democrat” replaces “African American.” The dilution of
minority voting is forbidden by the Voting Rights Act, but par-
tisan gerrymandering is not forbidden. As a Republican law-
maker in North Carolina boasted, “I think electing Republicans
is better than electing Democrats. So I drew this map to help
foster what I think is better for the country.”17 It would be in-
teresting to speculate how much gerrymandering would go on
12 Campaigns, Elections, Threat to Democracy
rights, one by one, and by the end of his term of office, he had
restored voting rights to some 13,000 ex-felons. His successor,
Democrat Ralph Northam, continued the restoration process.
Through a November 2018 ballot measure, Florida voters
restored voting rights for some 1.5 million ex-felons, but in
March 2019 Florida Republicans in the legislature tried to limit
the number of ex-felons who could vote, claiming they needed
to pay back all court fees and fines. This legislation, signed by
Governor Ron DeSantis, put as many impediments as possible
in the path of felons seeking to gain full voting rights.
The one bright spot was the city of Portland, where nearly
60 percent of voters participated, and the median age was
forty-nine. What are the consequences of such disparities in
voting? As one reporter noted, “Elected leaders will represent
the interests of retirees, if they know what’s good for them. . . .
Mayors and Council members will think first to the needs of
constituents who turn out to the polls.”20
The questions still remain, why do so few people vote,
and why is the median age so high? Political scientists
have studied this issue for years and come to a number of
conclusions. For many people, voting isn’t worth the time
and effort it takes; elections are generally held on Tuesday, a
workday for most. For some, the fear of the Covid pandemic
and the need for social distancing were factors. Voter regis-
tration requirements may hold some back. Others don’t keep
up with local issues, choose not to or cannot vote in primary
elections, are just not interested in politics, or don’t trust gov-
ernment or elected officials. Perhaps they feel that the out-
come of an election is a foregone conclusion—why bother to
vote? Who, then, votes most often? The elderly, the better ed-
ucated, those who have a strong sense of partisanship or ide-
ology, and those who believe that government can be a force
for the good in society.
AFTER PHARSALIA
The civil war interrupted the intercourse that Cicero had kept up
with Caesar during the Gallic war. He hesitated for a long time to
take part in it, and it was after long indecision that the stings of
conscience, the fear of public opinion, and above all the example of
his friends decided him at length to start for Pompey’s camp. “As the
ox follows the herd,” said he, “I go to join the good citizens;”[279] but
he went half-heartedly and without hope. After Pharsalia he did not
think it was possible to continue the struggle: he said so openly in a
council of the republican chiefs held at Dyrrhachium, and he
hastened to return to Brundusium to hold himself at the disposal of
the conqueror.
What regret must he not have felt, if his thoughts went back
several years, and he remembered his triumphal return from exile!
In that very town, where he had been received with so much
rejoicing, he was constrained to disembark furtively, to conceal his
lictors, to avoid the crowd, and only go out at night. He passed eleven
months there, the saddest of his life, in isolation and anxiety. He was
distressed on all sides, and his domestic affairs did not cause him
less sorrow than public events. His absence had completed the
disorder of his pecuniary affairs. When they were most involved, he
had been so imprudent as to lend what ready money he had to
Pompey: the poniard of the King of Egypt had at the same time
carried off the debtor and put an end to his power of paying. While
he was trying to procure some resources by selling his furniture and
plate, he discovered that his wife was acting in concert with his
freedmen to despoil him of what remained; he learnt that his brother
and his nephew, who had gone over to Caesar, sought to justify
themselves at his expense, and were working to ruin him in order to
save themselves; he saw Tullia, his beloved daughter, again, but he
found her sad and ill, lamenting at the same time the misfortunes of
her father, and the infidelity of her husband. To these very real
misfortunes were joined at the same time imaginary troubles, which
caused him as much suffering; above all, he was tormented by his
habitual irresolution. Scarcely had he set foot in Italy when he
repented having come. According to his habit, his restless
imagination always puts things at their worst, and he is ingenious in
finding some reason for discontent in everything that happens to
him. He laments when Antony wishes to force him to leave Italy;
when he is allowed to remain, he still laments, because this exception
made in his favour may injure his reputation. If Caesar neglects to
write to him, he is alarmed; if he receives a letter from him, however
friendly it may be, he weighs all its expressions so carefully that he
discovers at last some motive for fear; even the broadest and most
complete amnesty does not entirely remove his fears. “When a man
pardons so easily,” he says, “it is because he defers his
vengeance.”[280]
At last, after a sojourn of nearly a year in that noisy and
pestilential town, he was permitted to leave Brundusium. He
returned to his fine country houses that he liked so much, and where
he had been so happy; he found his books again, he resumed his
interrupted studies, he could appreciate again those precious things
which we enjoy without thinking about them while they are ours, and
only begin to appreciate when we have lost them for a moment,
namely, security and leisure. He thought that nothing could equal
the charm of those first days passed tranquilly at Tusculum after so
many storms, and of that return to the quiet pleasures of the mind
for which he felt then that he was in reality made. “Know,” he wrote
to his friend Varro, “that since my return I have been reconciled to
my old friends: I mean my books. In truth, if I fled from them, it was
not because I was angry with them, but I could not see them without
some confusion. It seemed to me that in engaging in such stirring
affairs, with doubtful allies, I have not followed their precepts
faithfully enough. They forgive me, they recall me to their company;
they tell me that you have been wiser than I not to leave them. Now
that I am restored to their favour, I really hope that I shall support
more easily the evils that oppress us and those with which we are
threatened.”[281]
His conduct henceforth was clearly marked out. He owed it to the
great party he had served and defended to hold aloof from the new
government. He must seek in philosophy and letters a useful