GAMP Chap07

CHAPTER 7
CLIMATE AND WEATHER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR

AGRICULTURAL PLANNING
7.1 INTRODUCTION As an example, an Australian survey of agricul-

tural planners provided a myriad of planning
This chapter defines the assessment of climate and horizons and key decisions (sometimes referred
weather risk and its importance in agricultural plan- to as “decision points”) that could be influenced
ning to mitigate the impacts of climate variability by weather and climate variability at different
and extreme events. timescales. In addition, it has been realized that
the decision system extends across the whole
The term weather is used to describe day-to-day value chain in agricultural production that is
variations in our atmosphere. This includes precipi- affected by weather and climate variability. The
tation, temperature, humidity and cloud cover, sugar industry can serve as an example that has
among other variables. Weather forecasts are essen- relevance to many agricultural planning systems:
tially short-term, as the reliability of forecasts falls there are decisions at the farm scale (irrigation,
off rapidly after five days. Weather is therefore an fertilization, fallow practice, land preparation,
instantaneous concept. The climate of a region is planting, pest management) and at the transpor-
described by collating the weather statistics to tation and milling scale (improved planning for
obtain estimates of the daily, monthly and annual wet season disruption, planning for season start
means, medians and variability of the weather data. and finish, crop size forecasts, civil works sched-
Climate is therefore a long-term average of ules). There are catchment-scale issues (land and
weather. water resource management, environmental
management), as well as issues at the “marketing
Agricultural planning – strategic (long-term) and scale” (crop size forecasts, planning for high-
tactical (<10 days) – needs to weigh climate-related premium early season supply, shipping and global
and other risks to attain the producer’s goals and to supply management) and at the policy scale
spell out the sort of information that farmers need (water allocation planning, planning for extreme
to aid their planning, such as climate, technical/ events) (Everingham et al., 2002; Stone and
managerial, and market data, for example. A key Meinke, 2005).
aspect needed in linking climate and weather risk
to agricultural planners is an appreciation of the Varying timescales and key agricultural decisions
overall management system in question from the are also important, especially in terms of the need
decision-makers’ viewpoint. Managers need infor- to recognize how different climate and weather
mation for both tactical and strategic systems affect different farming decisions. Table 7.1
decision-making. provides an example of the complexity inherent in
Table 7.1. Agricultural decisions at a range of temporal and spatial scales that could benefit from
targeted climate forecasts (Meinke and Stone, 2005)
Farming decision type Frequency (years)

Logistics (e.g., scheduling of planting/harvest operations) Intraseasonal (>0.2)
Tactical crop management (e.g., fertilizer/pesticide use) Intraseasonal (0.2–0.5)
Crop type (e.g., wheat or chickpeas) or herd management Seasonal (0.5–1.0)
Crop sequence (e.g., long or short fallows) or stocking rates Interannual (0.5–2.0)
Crop rotations (e.g., winter or summer crops) Annual/bi-annual (1–2)
Crop industry (e.g., grain or cotton; native or improved pastures) Decadal (~10)
Agricultural industry (e.g., crops or pastures) Interdecadal (10–20)
Land use (e.g., agriculture or natural systems) Multidecadal (20+)
Land use and adaptation of current systems Climate change
7–2 GUIDE TO AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL PRACTICES
matching appropriate climate forecast systems with et al., 1996, 2004; Krishnamurti et al., 2002;
the farming decision type (from Meinke and Stone, Chiang and Sobel, 2002; Su and Neelin, 2003).
2005). The vast majority of the Earth’s surface is void of
data, however. Moreover, databases are essential
for conducting analysis, developing trends and
7.1.1 Understanding the climate
determining anomalies in global and regional
mechanisms that contribute to
climate.
climate- and weather-related risks
Weather and climate variability can result from Climate data are essential in planning and reduc-
interactions between the climate system’s vari- ing the risks associated with climate anomalies.
ous components – the atmosphere, oceans, Assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-
biosphere, ice layer, land surface and anthropic term climate variability and weather risks, as
action. well as their relationship to extreme events,
could help mitigate the effects of climate varia-
Article 1 of the United Nations Framework bility and facilitate the scheduling of agricultural
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) activities.
defines climate change as: “a change of climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to The definitions of risk, hazard and anomalies differ
human activity that alters the composition of as follows:
the global atmosphere and which is in addition (a) Hazard is an event or process that is poten-
to natural climate variability observed over tially destructive; it is the probability of occur-
comparable time periods”. The UNFCCC thus rence of a potentially damaging phenomenon
makes a distinction between “climate change” within a given time period and location of
attributable to human activities altering the interest;
atmospheric composition and “climate variabil- (b) Risk is the magnitude of a potential loss (lives
ity” attributable to natural causes. lost, persons injured, property damaged, and
economic activity disrupted) within the area
Climate disasters can be divided into extreme subject to hazard for a particular location and
events and regional climate anomalies. Global a reference period;
climate change may produce a larger number of (c) Anomaly is the deviation of a meteorologi-
climatic disaster occurrences. This is based on cal quantity value in a given region from
the fact that a linear increase in the average of a the normal (mean) value for the same
climatic variable implies a non-linear increase in period.
the occurrence probability of extreme values of
such variable. Also, an increase in its Impacts from natural disasters on agriculture, range-
variability means an incremental change in the land and forestry can be positive or negative. While
occurrence probability of extreme values (Cunha, the impacts are predominantly negative and do
2003). affect human society significantly (Joy, 1991), there
are some positive impacts or benefits that should be
A WMO study, Agrometeorology Related to Extreme pointed out in any discussion of the impacts of
Events, (WMO, 2003a) notes that “Although natural natural disasters.
calamities cannot be avoided, their destructive
impact, in terms of human losses and animal lives Positive impacts of natural disasters include
related to ecological equilibrium, could certainly be increased rainfall to inland areas from tropical
considerably minimized. Planning and manage- cyclones along coastal areas (Ryan, 1993), the
ment for the prevention and mitigation of extreme fixing of atmospheric nitrogen by thunderstorms,
events are matters of vital significance for the safety the germination of many native plant species as a
and well-being of millions of people who inhabit result of bushfires, and the maintenance of fertil-
exposed disaster areas. In addition to local and ity of flood-plain soils due to flooding (Blong,
national action, international and regional cooper- 2002). The influx of funds into disaster-relief
ation should be promoted for an enhanced activities after the occurrence of natural disasters
prevention and mitigation.” can also sometimes be positive for local commu-
nities, as was shown for the city of Mobile,
Micro- to large-scale studies have shown anoma- Alabama, after Hurricane Frederic (Chang, 1984).
lies for isolated climatic elements (Grimm et al., Negative impacts will be discussed in detail in
1998; Souza et al., 2000; Garcia et al., 2002; André this chapter.
CHAPTER 7. CLIMATE AND WEATHER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR AGRICULTURAL PLANNING 7–3
7.2 CLIMATIC HAZARDS 7.2.2 Categories
7.2.1 Types 7.2.2.1 Drought
Drought is a shortage of water for essential needs,

7.2.1.1 Extreme events
which for agricultural purposes relates to plant
Extreme events can vary from short-lived, violent growth. It is also a relative term, however, in that it
phenomena of limited extent such as tornadoes, might be considered a deficiency of water for a few
flash floods and severe thunderstorms, to the weeks or months in a high rainfall area or a lack of
effects of large systems such as tropical and extra- water over several years in arid lands. It also should
tropical cyclones, and the effects of prolonged not be confused with desertification, which is a
drought and floods. Drought and floods are respon- consequence of human activity, such as overstock-
sible for more significant impacts on human life ing the land relative to its carrying capacity,
and property and can affect one area for several something that is particularly common in arid
months to years. About 65 per cent of the esti- lands in times of below-average rainfall. Excessive
mated worldwide natural disaster damage is of tillage is another cause of desertification.
meteorological origin. Meteorological factors have
contributed to 87 per cent of the number of people Drought differs from other natural hazards in that
reported affected by natural disasters and to 85 per its effects often accumulate slowly over time, and
cent of related deaths (WMO, 2004). Recent scien- may linger for years after the termination of the
tific studies also indicate that the number of event (Wilhite, 2000). Because of this, drought is
extreme events and their intensity may increase as often referred to as a creeping phenomenon
the global temperature continues to rise due to (Tannehill, 1947).
climate change.
Droughts must be viewed as an integral part of a
7.2.1.2 Regional climate anomalies natural climatic cycle, even though extreme
droughts can have disastrous consequences.
Mesoscale storms and severe local storms fall into Treating drought simply as a disaster that could not
this category. Hail causes millions of dollars of be anticipated, with subsequent pleas for national
damage to crops and property each year. Tornadoes or international assistance, ignores the fact that the
are among the most feared natural phenomena. impact of all but the most severe droughts can be
More tornadoes occur on the North American mitigated through careful planning and risk
continent than anywhere else in the world, though management (O’Meagher et al., 1998, 2000;
they can affect (and have affected) nearly all regions Botterill, 2003, 2005). It is also useful to distinguish
of the world. Fortunately, their scale is relatively among meteorological, hydrological and agricul-
small (diameters range from about 15 m to over tural drought phenomena, in that the severity of
2 km), so they affect a limited area. these are only partially correlated; the severity of an
agricultural drought depends on how deficiency of
Small-scale severe weather phenomena (SCSWP) rainfall and soil moisture is expressed in terms of
are weather events that are sparsely dispersed in plant growth, and ultimately in terms of the health
space and time and may have important impacts and welfare of rural communities (for example,
on societies, such as loss of life and property du Pisani et al., 1998; Keating and Meinke, 1998;
damage. Their temporal scales range from minutes Stafford Smith and McKeon, 1998; White et al.,
to a few days at any location and typically cover 1998).
spatial scales from hundreds of metres to hundreds
of kilometres. The Technical Summary of the Massive fires can be triggered during and after peri-
Working Group I Report of the Third Assessment ods of drought, by lightning or by human actions,
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate in almost every part of the world. These fires destroy
Change (IPCC) describes SCSWP as follows: forests, grasslands and crops. They also kill livestock
“Recent analyses of changes in severe local weather and wild animals, damage or destroy settlements,
(e.g., tornadoes, thunderstorm days, and hail) in a and put the lives of inhabitants at risk (WMO,
few selected regions do not provide compelling 2006).
evidence to suggest long-term changes. In general,
trends in severe weather events are notoriously
7.2.2.2 Heavy rainfall and floods
difficult to detect because of their relatively rare
occurrence and large spatial variability” (IPCC, According to the WMO publication Working Together
2001). for a Safer World, flood hazards represent about 32
per cent of all damage from natural disasters (WMO, El Niño is generally associated with worldwide
2004). It is estimated that extreme weather events changes in the patterns of precipitation and temper-
will increase in frequency and severity during the ature, tropical cyclones and hurricane activity, the
twenty-first century as a result of changes in mean behaviour of subtropical jet streams, and many
climate and/or climate variability. Changes in other general circulation features over various parts
temperature and precipitation may lead to dramatic of the world. The magnitude of hurricanes is
shortening of the return periods of floods. Flood assessed with the Saffir–Simpson scale, which takes
disasters are intensified by environmental degrada- into account maximum sustained winds and mini-
tion, urbanization, demographic shifts and poverty, mum storm central pressure.
industrialization and overall economic
development. Losses to agriculture, rangelands and forests from
tropical cyclones can be due to direct destruction of
Prevention of these disasters requires the devel- vegetation, crops, orchards and livestock; damage
opment of programmes that include the to infrastructure such as canals, wells and tanks;
management of the water cycle as a whole, with and long-term loss of soil fertility from saline
a view to the adoption of an integrated hazard deposits over land flooded by seawater. Typhoons
management approach. WMO and the Global can inflict severe damage on agriculture: for
Water Partnership (GWP) are promoting a new example, in southern Hainan on 2 October 1999,
concept of Integrated Flood Management (IFM). some 25 million timber and rubber trees were blown
IFM ensures disaster reduction through the down (WMO, 1994). A typhoon that struck Thailand
prevention of flooding, mitigation of adverse on 4 November 1989 destroyed some 150 000 ha of
impacts through appropriate adaptation strate- rubber, coconut and oil palm plantations and other
gies and preparation of the community to crops (WMO, 1997).
respond appropriately to flood forecasts and
warnings. Not all the impacts of cyclones are negative,
however, and some reports cite beneficial effects of
tropical cyclones. Ryan (1993) mentions some
7.2.2.3 Strong winds: tornadoes, storms and
important benefits of tropical cyclones in Australia.
tropical cyclones
Increased water availability in water-critical regions
Tropical cyclones are among the most destruc- makes agricultural production less susceptible to
tive of all natural hazards, causing considerable the dry season. Researchers estimate that nine major
human suffering in about 70 countries around hurricanes in the United States since 1932 termi-
the world. They form over all tropical oceans, nated dry conditions over an area of about
with the possible exception of the South Pacific 622 000 km2 (Sivakumar, 2005).
east of about 140° W. In the western North
Pacific, mature tropical cyclones are known as
7.2.2.4 Temperature: frost and heatwaves
typhoons – they are also referred to as hurricanes
in the western hemisphere and cyclonic storms A “frost” is the occurrence of an air temperature of
or tropical cyclones in other areas. As described 0°C or lower, measured at a height of between
in Agrometeorology Related to Extreme Events 1.25 and 2.0 m above ground, inside an appropriate
(WMO, 2003b), tropical cyclones are the weather shelter (FAO, 2005). Most frost events occur
offspring of ocean–atmosphere interactions, during clear and calm nights, often preceded by
powered by heat from the sea, steered by the relatively warm and sunny days. This type of frost
easterly trades and mid-latitude westerlies. An originates from the reduction of downward long-
average of 80 tropical cyclones form annually wave radiation from the atmosphere owing to the
over the tropical oceans, with the typhoon absence of, or low, cloud cover, and from the
region of the western North Pacific accounting stratification of the air near the ground that develops
for approximately 30 of these (Obasi, 1997). The under weak wind conditions. Because cold air flows
impact of tropical cyclones is greatest over downslope, much like water, the valley floors and
coastal areas that bear the brunt of the strong lower portions of the slopes are colder. This type of
winds and flooding from rainfall. For example, frost is classified, in relation to its origin, as a
while the annual average for the Bay of Bengal “radiation frost”. Another less common but relevant
and the Arabian Sea is only five tropical cyclones type of frost is the “advection” or “wind” frost,
per year, some of the most destructive tropical which originates from the advection of freezing
cyclones in history have occurred in that region, cold air into a region. This type of frost is
such as the severe tropical cyclone in Bangladesh accompanied by wind and clouds and predominantly
in 1970, which claimed 300 000 lives. affects the higher portions of valleys.
Frost damage is the leading weather hazard, on a the summer months. In France, Italy, Netherlands,
planetary scale, as far as agricultural and forest Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, they
economic losses are concerned. Only a small frac- caused some 40 000 deaths. Extremely cold spells
tion of the farmland is frost-free and few crops cause hypothermia and aggravate circulatory and
never experience frost damage. Frost reduces respiratory diseases (WMO, 2006a).
substantially the world’s production of vegetables,
ornamentals, field and row crops, pasture, forage
7.2.2.5 Others
and silage crops, fruit trees (deciduous and ever-
greens), vines and berries. Sometimes forest trees Duststorms and sandstorms are ensembles of parti-
are also affected (FAO, 2005). cles of dust or sand lifted to great heights by strong
and turbulent wind. They occur mainly in parts of
Frost damage is possible only after the onset of freez- Africa, Australia, China and the United States. They
ing. Thus it is probably more accurate to refer to threaten lives and health, especially of persons
“freeze damage”. Freezing inside the protoplasts caught in the open and far from shelter.
(intracellular freezing) is always lethal, and is most Transportation is particularly affected as visibility is
likely due to the disruption of the membrane systems reduced to only a few metres.
that compartmentalize cells. Fortunately, this type of
damage is rare or does not occur in nature (Levitt, Precipitation in the form of large hailstones can
1978). Under natural cooling rates, freezing of the reach diameters of over 10 cm and can fall at speeds
plant tissues starts outside the cells (extracellular freez- of over 150 km/h. Worldwide losses to agriculture
ing) in the intercellular solution, because this solution in a typical year are more than US$ 200 million.
is more diluted than the solution present in the cyto- Hailstorms have also caused deaths and great
plasm. As the temperature of the freezing tissue gets damage to cities around the world. In a matter of
lower, the ice masses grow, pulling out water from the minutes, an ice storm can deposit a layer of ice
protoplast, which shrinks as a result. The driving force heavy enough to bring down power and telephone
behind this water movement is the gradient of vapour lines and snap branches from trees. The ice covers
pressure, since saturation vapour pressure over ice is roads, railroad tracks and runways, making driving
lower than over water at the same temperature. The extremely hazardous, delaying trains and closing
loss of water by the protoplast (that is, desiccation) airports.
may or may not affect the viability of the cells,
depending on the tissue/plant hardiness. Some tissues Fog is a suspension of very small, usually micro-
cannot recover after any amount of ice has formed scopic, water droplets in the air. Dense fog has a
extracellularly, but, at the other extreme, there are serious impact on transportation when the visibil-
plants/tissues that can endure freezing down to the ity is significantly reduced. Highways, airports and
temperature of liquid nitrogen (–196˚C). ports are closed for safety. Fog can cause considera-
ble economic losses. Smog is a combination of fog
The temperature at which a given level of freeze and air pollution. It has serious implications for
damage is expected is called a critical temperature. human health.
Critical temperatures change with species/variety,
phenological stage and a number of hardening factors. Pollutants include particulate matter and noxious
For most crops, critical temperatures have been gases from industry, vehicles and human activi-
published and compiled (FAO, 2005). Forest trees are ties. Smoke and haze result from forest or wildland
mostly affected by frost if there is a deacclimation fires, from slash-and-burn forest or crop clearing,
period and they lose their hardiness prior to a frost or from ash generated by volcanic explosions in
event. Nevertheless, there are also published critical stable air conditions. Smoke, haze and pollution
temperatures for some forest trees (Larcher, 1982; have serious implications for human health – the
Tibbits and Reid, 1987; Ashworth and Kieft, 1995; local population may have to wear gas masks.
Ryyppö et al., 1998). These conditions reduce visibility, and air and road
traffic can be disrupted. Smog, acid rain, the ozone
Heatwaves are most deadly for humans in mid- hole and an adverse increase in the greenhouse
latitude regions, where they concentrate extremes effect are also caused by air pollution. Stable
of temperature and humidity over a period of a few atmospheric conditions often lead to a concentra-
days or even weeks in the warmer months. The tion of pollutants.
oppressive airmass in an urban environment can
result in many deaths, especially among the very Desert locusts inflict damage in Africa, the Middle
young, the elderly and the infirm. In 2003, much of East, Asia and southern Europe. When weather
western Europe was affected by heatwaves during and ecological conditions favour breeding, the
insects are forced into a small area. They stop (d) Global climate – this is the largest spatial
acting as individuals and start acting as a group. scale, since it refers to climate conditions
Within a few months, huge swarms form and fly over the entire Earth. Climate change and
downwind in search of food. Swarms can be dozens climate variability, stratospheric dynamics,
of kilometres long and can travel up to 200 km a and the general circulation fit into this cate-
day. A small part of an average swarm (or about gory. Energy input from the sun drives global
one tonne of locusts) eats the same amount of climate. The solar gain is controlled by the
food in one day as 10 elephants, 25 camels or orbit of the Earth around the sun and deter-
2 500 people. Swarms jeopardize the lives of mines the length of seasons. The so-called
millions of farmers and herders in already fragile climatic controls, or factors that produce the
environments. Locust plagues during or immedi- observed climate in any given place, are: lati-
ately after drought conditions can spell even tude, distribution of land and water, ocean
greater disaster, as was the case in several Sahelian currents, prevailing winds, position of high-
countries in 2005 (WMO, 2006b). and low-pressure systems, and topography.
7.3.2 Time
7.3 SCALE STUDIES FOR CLIMATIC Atmospheric fluctuations occur on various time-
ANOMALIES scales. Long-term fluctuations in climate can be
caused by changes in ocean circulation or changes
When investigating climate trends, owing to in the concentration of greenhouse gases due to
different force balances, it is important to note human activity, for example. Fluctuations on
that atmospheric motions behave with varying shorter timescales can be caused by changes in
temporal and spatial scales and are often cloudiness and water vapour, for example.
non-linear. Atmospheric timescales are divided as follows:
(a) Microscale – seconds to hours;
(b) Mesoscale – hours to days;
7.3.1 Space
(c) Macroscale – days to weeks;
Atmospheric circulation patterns are of critical (d) Global scale – weeks to months or years.
importance in determining the climate of a location.
On a global scale, atmospheric motions transport
7.3.3 Space–time scales
heat from the tropics towards the poles. Evaporation
over the oceans supplies much of the water mole- Figure 7.1 illustrates the energy spectrum in all scales
cules that support precipitation over land. These of motion, showing peaks in frequencies of a few
circulation patterns are in large part driven by energy days (synoptic scale) or several weeks (planetary
differences among regions of the globe. On a smaller scales). There are also peaks at one year, one day and
scale, precipitation on the lee side of a mountain is
typically less than on the windward side. On a still
smaller scale, the amount of snow downwind of a
snow fence is on average greater than the amount 600 Planetary
upwind (Ackerman and Knox, 2003). Spatial scales 500
may be classified as follows:
(a) Microclimate – near the ground over a front
Kg.m-2 .h-2
400
yard, climate conditions near the surface over
distances of a few metres. Large perturbations 300 Mesoscale
to the microclimate can rapidly affect plant
life; 200
(b) Mesoclimate – climate conditions over a few
square kilometres, for example, climate of a
100
town, valley or beach. Other examples of meso-
climate features are orographic precipitation,
lake effects, gravity waves and stratospheric-
1 year 1 month 1 day 1 hour 1 min 1s
troposphere exchange through mixing at the
top of deep cumulonimbus clouds;
Figure 7.1. Mean kinetic energy of the westward-
(c) Macroclimate – climate conditions for a state eastward component of the wind in the free
or a country, over scales of approximately atmosphere at 3.2 km (red line) and near the
1 000 km or greater; surface of earth (green line)
a few minutes. Nevertheless, the spectrum is a scales. Conversely, small-scale processes can organ-
continuum. ize to develop larger-scale systems, such as
convective storms.
Orlanski (1975) proposed a set of scales that include
the micro-, meso- and macroscales. These three are Figure 7.3 shows examples of the range and scales
further subdivided from larger to smaller into α, β of natural hazards that are observed, detected,
and γ scales, as shown in Figure 7.2. As the scale monitored and forecast by WMO networks (WMO,
becomes smaller, the effects of some processes 2006b).
become increasingly more difficult to treat explic-
itly or deterministically. Depending on the
horizontal scale of interest, different atmospheric
processes become significant. Turbulence, the gusti- 7.4 AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
ness superimposed on the mean wind, can be APPLICATIONS IN THE
visualized as consisting of irregular swirls of motion CHARACTERIZATION OF CLIMATIC
called eddies. Eddies produce effects at the micros- HAZARDS – MODELLING AND DATA
cale. The small-scale phenomena associated with NEEDS
the microscale are so transient in nature that deter-
ministic description and forecasting of individual The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
eddies is virtually impossible. was established in 1988 by WMO and the United
Nations Environment Program (UNEP) to assess
The scales of atmospheric motions are inter scientific, technical and socio-economic informa-
connected and nearly continuous. Macroscale tion relevant to the understanding of climate
processes drive mesoscale and microscale processes change, its potential impacts and options for adap-
as energy is transferred from larger to smaller tation and mitigation.
Micro ϒ Micro β Micro α Meso ϒ Meso β Meso α Macro β Macro α

1 year
Standing
waves
1 month Ultra long

waves
Baroclinic
waves
Fronts
Hurricanes
Tidal
1 day waves
Nocturnal
low-level jet
Squall lines
Inertial waves
Cloud clusters
Mtn. and lake
Thunder- breezes
storms
I.G.W.
1h C.A.T.
Tornadoes
Deep Urban
convection effects
Short
gravity
Dust waves
devils
Thermals
1 min wakes
Plumes
Roughness
Turbulence
20 m 200 m 2km 20km 200km 2 000km 10 000km
Microscale
Mesoscale
Macroscale
Figure 7.2. Scale definitions and different atmospheric processes with characteristic time- and horizontal
scales (adapted from Orlanski, 1975). C.A.T. refers to Clear Air Turbulence and I.G.W. to Inertial
Gravity Waves (OFCM, 2004).
Figure 7.3. Range and scales of natural hazards that are observed, detected, monitored
and forecast by WMO networks
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001), simulations of climate, at least for sub-
states that “the Earth’s climate system has under- continental scales. Models cannot yet simulate
gone changes on both global and regional scales all aspects of climate, however. For example, they
since the pre-industrial era”, and “there is newer still cannot account fully for the observed trend
and stronger evidence that the Earth’s warming in the temperature difference between the surface
observed over the last 50 years is due to human and the lower atmosphere. There are also signifi-
activities”. Among the hazards predicted to occur cant uncertainties regarding clouds and their
due to global change, the most threatening for interaction with radiation and aerosols (UNFCCC,
mankind are an increase in the intensity and 2004).
frequency of storms, floods, droughts and heat-
waves, and the effects of sea level rise in coastal There are numerous GCMs in use and under
areas. There is, however, a great deal of uncertainty construction in research centres around the world.
in these predictions and research that aims to For instance, some of the general circulation models
improve climate model predictions is under way in that were used by the IPCC were the French ARPEGE
many research centres around the world. A number model; the American NASA GEOS-2 and GISS
of empirical mathematical models have also been models and NOAA CCM2 models; the German
developed and applied (Long and Drake, 1991; ECHAM model; and the Canadian MAM model, to
Long, 1991). Predicting how vegetation will respond name a few.
to climate change is critical to understanding the
impacts of atmospheric changes on both natural
7.4.2 Regional circulation models
ecosystems and crop growth.
Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) are used in
many parts of the world to determine specific char-
7.4.1 General circulation models
acteristics of the weather in mesoscale. RCMs have a
Characterization of climatic hazards for some regional domain, over one state or country, for exam-
crops has been carried out using general circula- ple, and provide more spatially detailed predictions
tion models (GCMs) and the confidence in the than those obtained with GCMs. Many RCMs are
ability of these models to project future climate being adapted and implemented in different parts of
has been increasing. The most detailed predic- the world. The principal RCMs in use are:
tions are based on coupled atmosphere–ocean (a) RAMS – Regional Atmospheric Modelling
general circulation models that provide credible System (Pielke et al., 1992);
(b) ETA – RCM, with Eta Coordinate (Mesinger et A range of decision support systems (DSSs) are
al., 1988); available for analysing historical data to determine
(c) MM5 – Penn State Mesoscale Model, Fifth probabilities of rain, frosts, and the beginning and
Generation (Chen and Dudhia, 2001); end of growing seasons. In Australia, for instance,
(d) ARPS – Advanced Regional Prediction System these include Australian Rainman (Clewett et al.,
(Xue et al., 1995); 2003), which provides more detailed analysis of
(e) MBAR – Brazilian Model of High Resolution rainfall probability distributions, and the
(INMET). MetAccess system (Donnelly et al., 1997) devel-
oped by the Commonw ealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). More
7.4.3 Historical local climate data
complex DSSs and models are able to simulate
Climate information can benefit rural producers changes in soil moisture, pasture or crop growth,
through the use of seasonal forecasts, and by liveweight change, supplementary feed require-
improving the management of climate variability ments and cash flow. An example is the “Whopper
per se. Significant climate variability implies the Cropper” cropping systems DSS, in which the DSS
likely occurrence of drought and floods. can play a valuable role in encouraging farmers to
be more tactical in their decision-making and
Historical climate information is crucial to plan the consider planting a crop when there is adequate
production year. It influences the long-term strate- stored moisture, or to take a more strategic
gies regarding which crops to grow and when to approach. It can also encourage debate on the
plant or sow, which for most crops is the primary design of planned and flexible cropping rotations.
determinant of when harvesting takes place. Tactical
decisions on how much to sow have to be made in In this respect, the development of DSSs has made
relation to climate and market forecasts, along with it apparent that the best way to obtain an appropri-
decisions on when and how much to irrigate, pest ate balance between demand- and supply-driven
control, and crop protection. development of a DSS is via dialogue among the
key participants in the decision-making. Including
Increased self-reliance by rural producers requires this dialogue in a participatory action research
the ability to manage both crop and livestock enter- programme suggests that the term “decision support
prises exposed to a variable climate and to minimize systems” may be better described as “discussion
the impact of drought. It also requires the ability to support systems”. Discussion support systems such
manage risk more effectively: production risk, envi- as “Whopper Cropper”, which can be applied in
ronmental risk, financial risk and market risk most agricultural environments, can then provide a
(White, 1997). Improved seasonal outlooks are but complementary vehicle for delivery of agricultural
one approach to helping farmers become more self- simulation-aided discussions. These systems can
reliant. Ways of offsetting the risks associated with also focus on farm management advisers as key
climate variability in order to create opportunities intermediary agents, who then act as facilitators in
require a systems approach (Hammer and Nicholls, the process (Nelson et al., 2002).
1996; Hammer et al., 2000).
Thus these DSSs, in combination with the findings
Climate data have long been invaluable for making of field experiments and farm surveys, are useful in
farm management decisions, including in areas determining optimal management strategies (such
where seasonal forecasts have proved unreliable. as long-term stocking rates and cropping rotation
Historical records of rainfall, temperature and even strategies) and short-term tactics (such as supple-
wind speed have been used to determine optimal mentary feeding, decisions about buying and selling
times for the sowing and harvesting of crops, and livestock, purchasing grain futures or cheap supplies
for lambing and calving on grassland farms, as well if available, sowing pastures in spring or sowing
as for irrigation planning. summer crops, determining areas for cutting hay
for conservation or sale, whether or not to irrigate,
Ancillary information that can help a producer and controlling for pests or diseases).
assess a current season and decide on various tactics
includes: rainfall to date (for instance, within a The use of long series of weather data has also
growing season), amount of standing herbage (or helped in determining probabilities and risk associ-
crop development), weight of livestock, amount of ated with frost. The Food and Agriculture
stored supplements and the capacity to deal with Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2005)
adverse seasons. Weather forecasts (<10 days) are of published personal computer programs that calcu-
particular value in making tactical decisions. late the probabilities of having a minimum
temperature lower than a given value in a specified Stephens (1998), and Potgieter et al. (2005) in
time period, the last spring and first autumn frost Australia, and Lourens and de Jager (1997) and
dates, length of growing season, and probabilities de Jager et al. (1998) for the maize model in Southern
and risk of frost damage to a specified crop. Africa.
7.4.4 Agronomic models 7.4.4.2 Pasture response
Biophysical models of agricultural systems can Models of grazing systems, such as GRASP in
provide useful and often necessary information northern Australia (McKeon et al., 1990) and
to complement field experimentation and farm DYNAMOF (Bowman et al., 1993, 1995) and
surveys, since if properly validated, they enable GrazPlan (Donnelly et al., 1997; Freer et al., 1997;
the system response to be assessed over many Moore et al., 1997) in southern Australia, are of
locations and seasons. They provide a logical link considerable value in determining appropriate
between climate information and performance of long-term stocking rates, supplementary feeding
plants and livestock in the field, and can there- and other strategies. In other words, they can be
fore be an effective means of determining the of fundamental importance in achieving sustain-
responsiveness of soil moisture, plants and live- able grazing systems and in improving the
stock to changing climatic conditions. Since such management of climate variability per se.
models should also be realistically responsive to
changes in management, the effects of both Such models are of value in assessing the severity
management and climate can be studied simulta- and impact of different droughts on grassland and
neously. For example, Fouché et al. (1985) used a rangelands comprising a range of vegetation types
model to show how the frequency and duration in different locations (Donnelly et al., 1998; Stafford
of droughts on the South African veldt increased Smith and McKeon 1998; du Pisani et al., 1998;
with stocking rate. The models are also proving White et al., 1998). The GRASP model has also been
to be invaluable for spatial and temporal simula- incorporated into a GIS-based prototype of a
tions within Geographical Information Systems national drought monitoring system in Australia
(GISs) in terms of drought monitoring, and as (Carter et al., 2000). Experimentation is under way
mentioned above, in estimating the value of with an alternative but simpler spatial/temporal
seasonal forecasts for various locations and farm- model, GrowEst Plus, based on the original model
ing systems. of Fitzpatrick and Nix (1970), to develop indices
that may be used to analyse specific events, such as
drought, or to characterize the reliability of a grow-
7.4.4.1 Crop response
ing season as an aid to managing environmental
Plant growth models need to be sufficiently mecha- sustainability (Laughlin et al., 2007).
nistic to predict plant responses to changes in the
environment. Although considerable attention has
7.4.5 Vegetation suitability maps
been given to defining the appropriate functional
forms within vegetation models (Thornley and Agroecological zoning systems are an example
Johnson, 1990), most models are specific to the of the use of data and models for the construc-
major ecosystem in which they have been devel- tion of suitability maps. The main system for land
oped and have an important empirical base. This resource assessment is the agroecological zoning
includes many of the crop models that have been (AEZ) methodology developed by FAO, along with
developed to predict grain yield or to evaluate supporting software packages for application at
management strategies, such as different sowing global, regional, national and sub-national levels.
dates, and how the efficiency of water use and the AEZ uses various databases, models and decision
use of nitrogen and other fertilizers may be support tools, which are described below.
manipulated.
The AEZ concept involves the representation of
A number of crop models are now being used both land in layers of spatial information and the
in modelling the effects of climate variability on combination of these layers using GIS techniques.
crop production and in determining management The combination/overlay of layers produces
strategies to help identify the genotypes and agroecological cells. In this way a land resources
approaches that allow for mitigation of the impact database is created that contains information on
of below-average seasons. Examples of the use of the AEZ cells. AEZ integrates in the database various
crop models for modelling and forecasting crop kinds of geo-referenced datasets, which can include
production include Keating and Meinke (1998), topography; administrative boundaries; road/
communications; towns and settlements; rivers/ 7.4.6.2 Soil moisture index

water bodies; geology; soil; physiography;
landforms; erosion; rainfall; temperature; moisture Thermal remote-sensing is an instantaneous obser-
regime; watersheds; irrigable areas; land use/land vation of the status of the surface energy balance.
cover and forest reserves; and population. The AEZ This is driven by the net radiation of the surface,
methodology and models have been applied in which is dominated during the daytime by incom-
developing a global digital AEZ land resources ing short-wave radiation from the sun; the amount
database derived from the digitized soil map of the reflected depends on the albedo of the surface.
world (DSMW). The database contains information
on soil and landforms, temperature regime and The difference between daytime and night-time soil
length of growing period, agroecological zones, temperatures can be used to monitor changes in
forest and protected areas, and land suitability for superficial soil moisture. McVicar et al. (1992) and
about 30 main crops (http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/ Jupp et al. (1998) jointly developed the Normalized
agll/cropsuit.asp). Difference Temperature Index (NDTI) to remove
seasonal trends from the analysis of daytime land
surface temperatures derived from the AVHRR
7.4.6 Remote-sensing
sensor. The NDTI, which is a very close approxima-
Remote-sensing can provide useful estimates of tion of the moisture availability, has the form:
vegetation cover and condition, plant water status,
and the spatial limits of severe droughts over large NDTI = (T∞. – Ts)/(T∞ –T0) (7.1)
areas of land (McVicar and Jupp, 1998; McVicar et
al., 2003). Such information is invaluable in moni- where T∞. is a modelled surface temperature if there
toring changes in land use, the impact of changing is an infinite surface resistance, that is, evapotran-
seasons and years on vegetation cover and “green- spiration (ET) is zero; Ts is the surface temperature
ness”, the beginning and end of growing seasons, observed from the AVHRR sensor, and T0 is a
the impact of livestock grazing intensity on vegeta- modelled surface temperature if there is zero surface
tion, and the extent of erosion and other forms of temperature resistance; hence ET equals ETp (poten-
land degradation. It is also a valuable source of data tial evapotranspiration). As McVicar and Jupp
for validating agronomic models. (1998) explain, T∞. and T0 can be thought of as the
physically limited upper and lower temperatures,
McVicar and Jupp (1998) describe four ways in respectively, for given meteorological conditions
which remote-sensing can assist in mapping and and surface resistances. If T0 is close to the T∞
monitoring agronomic conditions in relation to value, it is an indication that conditions are “wet”,
climate variability. These include: as when soil moisture in surface layers approaches
(a) Vegetation condition: monitoring with reflec- “field capacity”.
tive remote-sensing;
(b) Environmental condition: monitoring with
7.4.6.3 Drought early warning systems
thermal remote-sensing;
(c) Soil moisture: monitoring with microwave Drought early warning systems can help achieve a
remote-sensing; greater level of drought preparedness. Although
(d) Environmental stress: combining thermal and some of these systems have shortcomings, such as
reflective remote-sensing. being unreliable, poorly targeted or not user‑friendly
(Wilhite, 2005), others are proving invaluable at
the regional and national levels for monitoring and
7.4.6.1 Vegetation indices
mitigating the effects of drought.
Most vegetation indices are derived by combining
the red and near-infra-red (NIR) reflective bands The integration of spatial datasets, including
recorded by the LANDSAT Thematic Mapper™, the remotely sensed data, with agronomic models is
NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer leading to the development of integrated spatial/
(AVHRR) sensors and other remote-sensing instru- temporal systems for both grasslands (du Pisani et
ments used on satellite platforms. Vegetation al., 1998; Carter et al., 2000; Brinkley et al., 2004)
indices based on satellite data include measure- and crops (Lourens and de Jager, 1997; de Jager et
ments of leaf area index (LAI) (Tucker, 1979) and al., 1998; Stephens, 1998).
plant condition (Sellers, 1985), as well as the simple
ratio (NIR/Red) and the Normalized Difference Drought monitoring systems are also being used in
Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is given an exten- developing countries (for example, the Famine Early
sive review by McVicar and Jupp (1998). Warning System (FEWS), the Regional Remote Sensing
Unit of the Southern African Development there are a series of wet and dry spells, rainfall can
Community (SADC) based in Zimbabwe, and the FAO be harvested in either farm ponds or in village tanks
Global Information and Early Warning System on and can be recycled as lifesaving irrigation during a
Food and Agriculture (GIEWS)). These often appear to prolonged dry spell. The remaining water can also
be used primarily to focus reactive relief efforts on be used to provide irrigation for a second crop with
“drought disasters”, however, rather than being inte- a lower water requirement, such as chickpea. No
gral to the implementation of carefully thought out one strategy can be adopted universally, however.
policies aimed at managing for drought and improv- In fact, all such strategies are dependent upon loca-
ing the sustainability of agricultural production tion, time, crop, crop stage and (to some extent)
systems. Furthermore, having such systems in place socio-economic conditions. Developing such strat-
will be of only limited value if the required transpor- egies for each specific factor can help make
tation and telecommunications infrastructure and agriculture sustainable (Das, 2005).
extension services are inadequate.
In arid, semi-arid and marginal areas with a probabil-

ity of drought incidence of at least once in ten years, 7.5 METHODS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
for example, it is important for those responsible for
land-use planning, including agricultural programmes,
7.5.1 Managing risk
to seek expert climatological advice regarding rainfall
expectations. Drought is often a result of the interac- Producers recognize risk management as an
tion of human patterns of land use and the rainfall important activity in their decision-making proc-
regimes. Thus, there is an urgent need for a detailed ess. This enables them to manage their businesses
examination of rainfall records of these regions. In more effectively in a physical environment where
this regard, the development of methods for predict- drought or other extreme events are common,
ing the occurrence of rainfall many weeks or months though unpredictable, occurrences. Risk manage-
in advance deserves high priority. ment recognizes that producers also operate in an
economic environment of less-than-perfect
Since technological inputs quickly reach an opti- knowledge. There are three types of risk in agri-
mum level, more emphasis should be placed on culture: production risk, financial risk and
drought management policies, especially in dryland marketing risk.
farming areas. Agricultural planning and practices
need to be worked out with consideration given to Production risk is imposed primarily by seasonal
the overall water requirements within an individual variability. This risk may be reduced by avoiding
agroclimatic zone. Crops that need a short duration excessively high stocking rates, developing strate-
to mature and require relatively little water need to gies for reducing stock numbers in the event of
be encouraged in drought-prone areas. Irrigation, abnormally dry conditions, sowing drought-
through canals and groundwater resources, needs to resistant pasture plants and crops, choosing flock
be monitored to ensure optimum utilization, avoid- and herd structures and dates of lambing and calv-
ing soil salinity and excessive evaporation loss. A ing that better relate the nutritional demands of the
food reserve is needed to meet the emergency livestock to the available feed supply, providing
requirements of up to two consecutive droughts. A shelter for livestock, conserving fodder or growing
variety of policy decisions on farming, human migra- fodder crops, installing irrigation, and diversifying
tion, population dynamics, livestock survival, enterprises.
ecology, and so on must be formulated (Das, 1999).
Strategies that are less risky in terms of production
Sustainable strategies must be developed to allevi- may be much more prone to financial risk. For
ate the impact of drought on crop productivity. In example, low stocking rates may not allow enough
areas of recurring drought, one of the best strategies income to be generated in the good seasons to
for alleviating drought is to manipulate varietals in enable a farmer to survive the poor seasons (White,
such a way as to avoid drought, or to minimize its 1987). Stocking according to season may result in
effects by adopting varieties that are resistant to the purchase of stock at high prices and its sale at
drought at different growth stages. low prices (Arnold and Bennett, 1975). Dates of
lambing or calving that favour production may not
If drought occurs during the middle of a growing favour marketing. Fodder may be conserved on the
season, corrective measures can be adopted; these farm to support high stocking rates, but with the
vary from reducing plant population to fertilization extra stock numbers, less surplus is available to be
or weed management. In high rainfall areas where conserved (Bishop and Birrell, 1975). Irrigation
schemes will often be unprofitable, even though (a) Advanced, accurate, detailed and understand-
they reduce the production risk. Diversifying from able forecasts of hazardous conditions;
wool or beef production, for example, into crops or (b) A rapid, dependable distribution system for
specialist livestock enterprises, such as deer or delivering forecasts, advisories, watches and
alpaca farming, may require substantial capital warnings to all interested parties;
investment and associated financial risk, and farm- (c) A prompt, effective response to warnings at
ers who do diversify often do not have the necessary the national to local levels.
specialist skills.
WMO programmes related to monitoring the
Climate predictions may be used to reduce risk. atmosphere, oceans and rivers provide the crucial
For example, farmers planning to prepare land for time-sequenced information that underpins the
sowing winter crops might not do so if they were forecasts and warnings of hydrometeorological
given an adverse forecast in autumn. A farmer in hazards. The WMO global network of Regional
desperate need of cash to meet financial commit- Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) and
ments might sow a crop anyway, however, in the World Data Centres (WDCs) supplies critical data,
hope that the forecast was incorrect. A farmer analysis and forecasts that enable the National
might decide to feed a “failing” crop to livestock Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)
in the spring on the basis of an adverse forecast. to provide early warning systems and guidelines
for various natural hazards, such as tornadoes,
winter storms, tropical cyclones, cold waves and
7.5.2 Analyses of long-term weather
heatwaves, floods and droughts.
data to identify occurrence of
particular risk
For example, the WMO network proved to be
To identify the occurrence of particular risk (such as highly effective in 2004, during one of the most
water stress, heat stress, cold stress – including frosts, intense hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and
freezing, floods and risk of wild fires), it is necessary Caribbean regions. Atmospheric data collected via
to analyse long-term weather data. FAO (2005) devel- in situ and space-based instruments were transmit-
oped applications and models to compute frost ted to the United States National Hurricane Center,
probability and risk of damage. An MS Excel applica- one of the WMO RSMCs (RSMC-Miami), where
tion program (TempRisk.xls) was written, using the forecasts and hurricane advisories were developed
approach developed by Haan (1979), to make calcu- around the clock. These advisories were transmit-
lations of the probability and risk that temperatures ted via the Global Telecommunication System
will fall below a critical value for a user-selected time (GTS), facsimile and Internet at intervals of three
period. Another application program (FriskS.xls) to six hours to the NMHSs of countries at risk. The
computes the probability and risk associated with forecasters at the NMHSs used these hurricane
the last spring and first autumn frost dates, and the advisories to produce their national hurricane
probabilities for the length of the growing season. A warnings, which were dispatched immediately to
model, the MS Excel Damage Estimator application newspapers, radio and television stations, emer-
program (DEST.xls), is used to calculate expected gency services and other users. As a result of this
frost damage and crop yield using site-specific maxi- information, many lives were spared through
mum and minimum temperature climate data for timely evacuations. There is no doubt that much
crops having no protection against frost; it uses up to more could be achieved by deploying resources to
11 different frost protection methods. Up to 50 years strengthen further early warning systems. The
of maximum and minimum temperature data can challenge is to ensure that all countries, particu-
be used in the analysis. Critical temperatures associ- larly the Least Developed Countries, have the
ated with 90 per cent and 10 per cent damage are systems, infrastructure, human capacity and
available in the application and correspond to organizational structures to develop and utilize
specific phenological dates. early warning systems to reduce risks of natural
disasters.
7.5.3 Disaster preparedness on the basis
of weather forecasts 7.5.4 Anticipating risk on the basis of
seasonal forecasts
One of the most effective measures for disaster
preparedness is a well-functioning early warning Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many
system that delivers accurate information dependa- regions. Recent advances in model-based climate
bly and in a timely manner. Therefore, it must rely forecasting have expanded the range, timeliness
on: and accuracy of forecasts available to
decision-makers whose welfare depends on based primarily on the Southern Oscillation Index
stochastic climate outcomes. There has consequently (SOI). Since 1997, this initial approach has been
been considerable recent investment in improved replaced by a method based on Pacific Ocean and
climate forecasting for the developing world Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns,
(Lybbert et al., 2003). although methods and systems using the SOI (or
SOI “phases”) remain popular in eastern Australia,
The past decade has seen a great deal of progress where strong relationships exist between the SOI
in the understanding of our climate systems, and and key rainfall periods for agriculture and variables
in anticipating climate events, particularly El such as the start and finish of the frost season. In
Niño. This has resulted in a cultural change in addition, methods based on the SOI have proven
those countries that experience high climate vari- more amenable to incorporation into crop and
ability, not only within the meteorological pasture simulation models, thereby providing
community, but also among many farmers and increased capability for uptake by agricultural plan-
their advisers. This has been particularly true in ners. The SOI is based on the long-term trend in the
north-eastern Australia, where the impact of El differences in atmospheric pressure between Darwin
Niño has been quite severe, and where many agri- and Tahiti, and has proven to be a reasonably relia-
cultural and other natural resource scientists have ble indicator over much of eastern Australia, and
gained a significant appreciation of the underly- elsewhere, with respect to winter, spring and
ing climatological concepts and have developed summer rainfall (McBride and Nicholls 1983; Stone
tools that would aid rural producers in their farm et al., 1996). Such information is used in other
planning and decision-making. There has also countries susceptible to the influence of the El
been a major education programme involving the Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, including
community. Southern Africa, parts of South America, Indonesia,
and India.
Seasonal forecasts that may cover three or more
months are derived in a completely different way More recently a new forecast system has been devel-
from weather forecasts. Weather forecasts rely oped on the basis of near-global patterns of sea
upon knowledge of the precise conditions of the surface temperatures. The system shows more skill
atmosphere at the time when the forecast begins than the former SOI-based system and is now in
(initial conditions) in order to make forecasts for operation in some countries. The phase of the SOI
one to two weeks into the future. Given the (Stone et al., 1996) is proving to be another valua-
strongly chaotic nature of the atmosphere, ble tool for producing seasonal outlooks. Both
however, weather forecasts have virtually no skill rainfall-forecast methodologies (ENSO and SOI
after two weeks or so. Forecasts beyond this two- phases) were applied in the Pampas, located in
week weather forecast barrier rely on the fact that central-eastern Argentina, one of the world’s lead-
slowly changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) ing areas in terms of agricultural and farming
or land surface effects (boundary conditions) are potential (Penalba et al., 2005). A lead time of three
driving atmospheric circulations that affect to six months, especially for November (0), appears
certain regions of the world. Seasonal prediction to be feasible. The lead time found in the SOI phases
therefore can be skilful in regions of the globe methodology, however, does not improve the “fore-
where the atmosphere is driven by local or remote cast” provided by the ENSO methodology
sea surface temperature or land surface effects. occurrence, given that the ENSO event has already
Empirical as well as dynamical tools are used to entered into the development stage.
make seasonal forecasts. Statistical models fall
into the empirical category and have been used North-east Brazil is noteworthy as a region of the
successfully in various parts of the world, as world where remarkable skill has been achieved for
described below. General models of the ocean– the seasonal prediction of wet-season rainfall anom-
land–atmosphere circulation fall into the alies. These forecasts are based on the observation
dynamical category and are also discussed that wet-season (February to May) rainfall in
below. North‑east Brazil is strongly affected by sea surface
temperature anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific
7.5.4.1 Tools oceans in the previous months (November through
January). Statistical, real-time predictions of
North‑east Brazil wet-season rainfall have been
7.5.4.1.1 Statistical forecasts
issued by the British Met Office since the early
In 1989 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology began 1990s, following the work of Ward and Folland
issuing seasonal outlooks for the next three months, (1991).
7.5.4.1.2 General circulation models (GCMs) and initial conditions, as well as with cropping
systems and location (for example, Hammer et al.,
Forecast lead times in terms of years rather than 2000; Marshall et al., 1996).
months are needed to attain significant financial
benefits in many pastoral systems. Therefore there Preliminary studies of the value of seasonal fore-
is a robust case for further research to extend casts using models of grassland systems have shown
seasonal forecasts to annual timescales and that the financial benefits may not be easily real-
beyond. ized based on existing skill levels, lead times (three
months, for example) and decision points within a
Coupled ocean–atmosphere GCMs of the global calendar year. These analyses also demonstrate,
climate have been shown to offer more promise in however, that the same level of cash flow could be
extending forecasts from 3 to 12 months than the achieved for a much lower risk of environmental
statistical SOI methods, particularly because they degradation with the use of climate forecasting
directly forecast changes in SSTs in the central and (Stafford Smith et al., 2000). In some areas, even
eastern tropical Pacific. Such longer lead times high skill levels appear to offer low financial bene-
would certainly be more useful to livestock produc- fits in the medium term, despite increased animal
ers. GCMs have yet to be properly tested for rainfall welfare and protection for soils and vegetation
prediction, although their SST predictions can be (Bowman et al., 1995). This highlights the need for
used statistically to estimate changes in the SOI further research to determine whether and how the
and rainfall with reasonable success. management of many grassland systems and the
timing of the relevant decisions should be modified
Generally speaking, dynamical seasonal forecasts to take advantage of forecast information.
require the performance of large ensembles of
GCM simulations and an analysis of the results to
look for regions where most simulations produce
similar results. In such regions, atmospheric circu- 7.6 EXAMPLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR
lations may be more strongly driven by slowly PARTICULAR WEATHER AND
varying ocean or land effects and therefore the CLIMATE EVENTS FROM LITERATURE
prospect for making skilful seasonal predictions is
improved. Our experience with seasonal forecast- In north-western China, informal herder groups
ing has shown that, in general, the tropical regions counteract risk and manage disaster situations by
of the world present more promise for seasonal jointly preparing emergency plans and organizing
predictability than extra-tropical regions, although pasture movements should an emergency situation,
when seasonal climate forecast systems can be such as a snowstorm, occur (Yongong et al., 1999).
integrated into agricultural simulation models, an “According to the herders, village leaders and produc-
increase in applicability of seasonal forecasting tion team leaders are the most active persons in
systems appears possible in extra-tropical regions dealing with the risk management. . . . They even
and even some high-latitude locations (Meinke fulfil extension tasks, since there are no township
and Stone, 2005). and village extension line agencies. . . . In those
townships which have no concentrated village settle-
ment pattern, there is another non-governmental
7.5.4.2 Accuracy, timeliness and value
informal organization locally called ‘zhangquan’
The forecasts can influence decisions on when and situated between the production team and house-
what area to sow and whether to irrigate and/or holds. A ‘zhangquan’ normally composes about 4–5
fertilize a crop. Accuracy of forecasting does not herder’s households on average. In general, ‘zhang-
necessarily equate with its value to resource manag- quan’ are comprised of families or of neighbouring
ers. Obviously, if the information is not used, even families settled in the same area. Generally, these
though it may have value, no benefit is obtained. If individuals collaborate as unofficially formed herd-
the forecast is inaccurate, the information is likely ers groups. Such groups jointly organize the grazing,
to have negative value in the current season. Even they exchange their labour force, share information,
accurate information can be of limited value, protect animals from theft, address risk avoidance,
however, if the lead time is only three months, for organize meetings and make decisions together”
example, since many livestock producers require (Yongong et al., 1999).
lead times in excess of six months or even a year.
Synoptic and mesoscale predictions of minimum
The value of seasonal forecasts to crop producers temperature are usually undertaken by national or
can be significant, but it varies with management regional weather services, using large amounts of
equipment and manpower. These are usually public mitigate natural and man-made disasters in order
institutions that release frequent updates at no cost to protect the institution, its clients and staff from
to the public. Local (microscale) forecasts are typi- possible losses. The plan is quite comprehensive,
cally unavailable unless provided by private forecast including measures to safeguard the institution’s
services. At the microscale, complex energy-balance staff, portfolio, facilities, equipment and informa-
models have been used to predict short-range mini- tion systems and records, as well as measures to
mum temperature, with uncertain results (Sutherland, better respond to the many disasters that affect
1980; Cellier, 1982, 1993; Kalma et al., 1992). Simple Nicaragua. The plan recognizes that priority should
empirical models calibrated locally, however, often be given to assisting clients in finding medical aid,
give satisfactory results in the prediction of mini- contacting relief organizations and joining food
mum temperature in a given day. FAO (2005) presents for work (FFW) programmes, but, in keeping with
an empirical forecast model “FFST.xls”, which can be the sector’s orthodox “best practices”, it does not
easily calibrated for local conditions. The model uses consider that the institution should provide relief
historical records of air and dewpoint temperature at directly.
two hours past sunset and observed minimum
temperatures to develop site-specific regression coef- Hurricane Michelle, the most powerful storm since
ficients needed to accurately predict the minimum 1944, ripped through Cuba in November 2001. But,
temperature during a particular period of the year. in contrast to the 20 000 victims of Hurricane Mitch
This model will only work during radiation-type in Honduras, just five people died in Cuba.
frost events in areas with limited cold air drainage. Successful civil defence and Red Cross planning
ensured that 700 000 people were evacuated to
In coastal Asia where flood risk is severe, for exam- emergency shelters in time. Search-and-rescue and
ple in Bangladesh and Cambodia, several projects emergency health care plans swung into action. In
have been built specifically focusing on people’s Havana, electricity and water supplies were turned
perception of flood risk, the purpose and tools of off to avoid deaths from electrocution and sewage
community flood risk assessment, the strategies for contamination. Cuba’s population was advised in
community organization, and resource mobiliza- advance to store water and clear debris from streets
tion and capacity-building. In these cases, the that might cause damage (FAO, 2003).
underlying rationale can be traced back to the
sequencing of disaster risk management activities, The severity of the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon
with an emphasis on local scoping studies and of 1997–1998 led to the establishment of the
capacity-building that are to precede community Andean Regional Programme for Risk Prevention
interventions. and Reduction (PREANDINO), with the objective of
promoting the development of disaster risk preven-
In India, following the cyclone of 1971 (which took tion and mitigation policies and new institutional
the lives of 10 000 people), the government of the arrangements aimed at incorporating prevention
state of Orissa prepared a report outlining a series of into development planning.
measures to be taken to prepare for future cyclones,
which later led to the Orissa Relief Code. This code The Lempira Sur rural development project in the
provides the basic framework for the implementa- south of Honduras has promoted improved agri-
tion of emergency measures under all types of cultural practices, river basin management,
emergency situations, as it details the specific ecological sustainability, increases in on- and off-
responsibilities of the state’s Special Relief farm incomes, and economic resilience among
Commissioner and its different line ministries. poor families. This has been achieved with the
During the latest cyclone of 1999, planning introduction and appropriation of improved land-
responses were still hindered by a lack of updated use practices, water management schemes,
and available vulnerability maps and databases on maintenance of biodiversity, local credit schemes,
conditions on the coast. and the strengthening of local government and
the ability to plan urban and rural development.
In Nicaragua, the Asociación de Consultores para The notion of disaster risk reduction was never
el Desarrollo de la Pequeña, Mediana y considered in the project document. The project
Microempresa (ACODEP), one of the largest micro- demonstrates, however, how ecologically sustain-
finance institutions (MFIs) in the country, has able, best-practice agriculture will lead to reductions
been learning from the experience of Hurricane in disaster risk, although this was not a defining
Mitch in 1998 and more recent disasters. The asso- characteristic of the project as such. Hazard reduc-
ciation has developed a “disaster prevention plan” tion associated with flooding and landslides has
whose objectives are to identify, prepare for and been achieved, along with increases in the resil-
ience of the local population when faced with temperature and soil humidity changes; (c) by
extreme conditions. During Hurricane Mitch, the contributing to the formation of weeds, pests and
area covered by the project suffered little damage diseases (weeds are expected to benefit from higher
thanks to the types of land‑use and slope-stabiliza- CO2 concentration, increases in precipitation and
tion methods that were utilized, and it was able to temperature are favourable to the development of
provide food assistance to other areas severely early crop diseases, and the risk of crop damage by
damaged by the hurricane. pests and diseases increases in all regions under
climate warming); and (d) through economic and
An efficient telecommunication system is a social effects. Rosenzweig and Liverman (1992)
prer equisite for an effective typhoon warning observed that the tropical regions could also be
system. The Global Telecommunication System was more vulnerable to climate change because of
developed by WMO under the World Weather economic and social disparities. Greater economic
Watch (WWW) Programme to collect data from the and individual dependence on agriculture,
national observing stations and exchange these widespread poverty, inadequate technologies and
data with other countries. This elaborate telecom- lack of political power are likely to exacerbate the
munication system also allows for the prompt impacts of climate change in tropical regions.
dissemination of typhoon warnings, as well as the
transmission of data for the monitoring of typhoons A number of global assessments of the impacts of
(Lao, 2006). climate change in agriculture and agricultural
markets have been produced (Rosenberg and
Crosson, 1991; Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1998;
Mendelsohn and Neumann, 1999; Siqueira et al.,
7.7 EXTREME CASES 1999; Salinger et al., 2001; Reilly et al., 2001; Das,
2003a). It is expected that the concentration of
Although there is a great deal of uncertainty atmospheric CO2 will rise from its current level of
involved in the assessment of climate-related 354 ppm to 530 ppm by the year 2050, and to 700
human health risk, visible progress is being made. ppm by the year 2100 (Watson et al., 1990).
Climate-related health risks range from the direct Changes in the concentration of the infra‑red
effects of extreme temperature and flooding, which absorbing gases in the atmosphere are expected
every year cause deaths and the spread of infec- to produce a general warming of the global surface
tious diseases, to the more indirect effects of ranging from 3°C–4oC by the year 2100 (Bretherton
climate variability on the global distribution of et al., 1990). According to Marengo (2001), in
infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, most of Latin America there are no regional stud-
cholera, Rift Valley fever, and hantavirus, among ies that show conclusive effects of climate change.
many others. Some changes in atmospheric circulation at the
regional level, however, were detected for precipi-
The role of climate and the environment in human tation and hydrological cycles in the Amazon
disease dynamics has been clearly demonstrated for region, for example (Marengo et al., 2001; Costa
the case of cholera, an acute intestinal infection and Foley, 1999; Curtis and Hastenrath, 1999),
caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. The dynam- and for temperature, including several Brazilian
ics of cholera outbreaks involve the V. cholerae regions (Victoria et al., 1998; Marengo and Rogers,
bacterium and plankton in such a way that during 2001).
periods of warm sea surface temperatures, V. chol-
erae is active and abundant and the number of Catarina, a powerful storm that affected parts of
cholera cases in certain geographical areas is Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states in
elevated (Colwell, 1996). On a global scale, the clear Brazil in March 2004, may be an early example of
link between cholera epidemics and climate varia- the effect of climate change in the South Atlantic
bility phenomena, such as El Niño, offers the Ocean. A technical note published by the Brazilian
possibility of creating an early-warning system that Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate
could help prevent future cholera epidemics given Studies (CPTEC) and the Brazilian National
reliable climate prediction. Institute of Meteorology (INMET) reports that the
storm formed as a cyclone in the South Atlantic
Climate change can affect agriculture in many Ocean, acquiring hurricane characteristics while
ways, for example: (a) through soil–plant processes, moving towards the South American continent.
with an increase in soil water deficits caused by The storm (with winds of up to 180 km/h, which
changes in soil water balance; (b) in the area of crop had never before been observed in the South
development, since crops will be affected by Atlantic Ocean) caused unprecedented destruction
in that region. Damages were in excess of US$ 350 winds, a minimum storm pressure of 0.1 mPa, and
000 000. quite a long lifespan (14.5 days), Hurricane Mitch
turned out to be the deadliest of the century. It
Climate change may therefore result in an increase caused loss of life, destruction of property and
in climate variability and climate extremes. Such damage to food production, food reserves and
climate changes will most certainly affect crop transportation systems, as well as increased health
growth and productivity. There is not enough infor- risks.
mation about the potential impact of climate
change in agriculture, however, because of the Deadly typhoons and killer cyclones strike coastal
complex response of plant and soil processes to areas along the Bay of Bengal with periodic
several weather variables. frequency, much like the floods along the Yangtze
River in China. They historically have also devas-
Climatologists at the NOAA National Climatic Data tated the Chinese coast, Korea, Japan, the Philippines
Center in Asheville, North Carolina, have selected and South-East Asia. The list includes:
some of the most notable floods, typhoons, hurri- (a) Bangladesh Cyclone, November 1970. The
canes, droughts, heatwaves, tornadoes, winter greatest tropical system disaster of the last
storms, blizzards and other climate events of the century occurred in Bangladesh in November
twentieth century. Factors taken into consideration 1970. Winds coupled with a storm surge killed
included the event’s magnitude and meteorological between 300 000 and 500 000 people. These
uniqueness, as well as its economic impact and cyclones usually cause the most devastation,
death toll (NOAA, 1999). The list includes: loss of life, and suffering in low-lying areas of
(a) Recurring floods that occur in the middle and Bangladesh and coastal India.
lower reaches of the major rivers in China and (b) Bangladesh Cyclone 02B, April 1991. Another
kill from several thousand to several hundred cyclone struck the Chittagong region in Bang-
thousand people. During the last century, ladesh in 1991, killing over 138 000 people and
major flooding disasters occurred in 1900, causing damage in excess of US$ 1.5 billion.
1911, 1915, 1931, 1935, 1950, 1954, 1959, The tropical cyclone devastated the coastal
1991 and 1998, mainly in the Yangtze River area south-east of Dacca with winds in excess
Valley. of 200 km/h and a 6 m storm surge
(b) Yangtze River Flood, 1931. The summer flood (c) China typhoons, early half of last century.
along the Yangtze in July–August 1931 was Several typhoons also struck the eastern China
the most severe, with over 51 million people coast during the early half of the last century,
affected (one fourth of China’s population). causing great hardship. Deaths from some of
Some 3.7 million people perished due to the storms ran into the tens of thousands. For
disease, starvation or drowning during what example, typhoons striking the China coast in
is considered the greatest disaster of the August 1912 and August 1922 resulted in fatal-
twentieth century. This flood was preceded ity counts of 50 000 and 60 000, respectively.
by a prolonged drought in China during the (d) Hurricane Mitch, November 1998. One of the
period between 1928 and 1930. strongest late-season hurricanes on record
(c) Flood in Vietnam, 1971. Heavy rains caused formed in the western Caribbean in October
severe flooding in North Vietnam, killing 1998. Although the system eventually
100 000 people. weakened before landfall, its slow passage
(d) Great Iran Flood, 1954. A storm over Iran westward over the mountainous regions of
produced flooding rains resulting in approxi- Central America unleashed precipitation
mately 10 000 deaths. amounts estimated as high as 1.9 m. The
resulting floods devastated the entire
Many of the devastating floods that occur in parts infrastructure of Honduras and also had a
of South-East Asia are also associated with typhoons severe impact on other countries in the area.
or tropical systems. (See the typhoon section for The final estimated death toll was 11 000, the
more information.) In contrast, the United States greatest loss of life from a tropical system in
Midwest Flood of 1993 caused 48 deaths. the western hemisphere since 1780.
(e) Typhoon Vera, September 1958. This typhoon’s
Among the most devastating hurricanes of all time passage over Japan in 1959 caused Japan’s
were Hurricane Georges (September 1998) and greatest storm disaster. The death toll reached
Hurricane Mitch (October 1998). A Category 5 nearly 5 000, with 1.5 million left home-
hurricane, Mitch was one of the most powerful less. Typhoon Vera dealt a staggering blow to
Atlantic hurricanes on record. With 290 km/h Japan’s economy, with tremendous damage
to roads, bridges and communications from of people living in coastal areas. For example, in
wind, floods and landslides. 1998, El Niño-related weather phenomena caused
(f) Typhoon Thelma, October 1991. Thelma was US$ 6.6 billion in damages in Argentina, Peru and
one of the most devastating tropical systems Ecuador, while Hurricane Georges alone caused
to affect the Philippines in the last century. US$ 2.1 billion in damages in the Dominican
Reports indicated that 6 000 people died as a Republic, and Hurricane Mitch resulted in damages
result of catastrophic events, including dam of US$ 2.4 billion in Honduras and Nicaragua
failure, landslides and extensive flash flood- (Charveriat, 2000).
ing. The death toll exceeded that of the Mount
Pinatubo eruption. The highest casualties In May 2002, the cyclone Kesiny hit Madagascar,
occurred on Leyte Island, where widespread affecting more than half a million people and leav-
logging in recent years had stripped the hills ing them homeless or in need of emergency food,
above the port city bare of vegetation. shelter and drinking water. Up to 75 per cent of the
(g) Hurricane Katrina, August 2005. Katrina was crops were destroyed, 20 people died and 1 200
the deadliest hurricane to hit the United were injured (CIDI, 2002).
States since 1928, killing more than 1 400
people. Katrina inundated 80 per cent of the The cyclone on 17–18 October 1999 and the one
city of New Orleans and caused damages of following it on 29–30 October in Orissa, India,
over US$ 70 billion. caused devastating damage. The second cyclone,
with wind speeds of 270–300 km/h for 36 hours,
Table 7.2 shows typhoon damages in North Central was accompanied by torrential rain ranging from
Viet Nam and Table 7.3 shows disaster impacts in 400 to 867 mm over a period of three days. The two
the same area. cyclones together severely affected around
19 million people in 12 districts (Roy et al., 2002).
Losses from a single tropical cyclone may therefore Sea waves reaching 7 m rushed 15 km inland. Some
run into the billions of dollars and such losses are 2.5 million livestock perished and a total of 2.1
forecast to rise due to the ever-increasing numbers million ha of agricultural land was affected.
Table 7.2. Typhoon damages in North Central Viet Nam, 15° N to 20° N (Van Viet, 1999)
Paddy fields
Value of losses Houses flooded
Year No. of deaths submerged No. of boats sunk
(US$ million) (in 1 000)
(in 1 000 ha)
1995 57 106.3 139 131 528
1996 499 720 590 829 741
1997 63 16 82 43 54
1998 214 104 461 208
Table 7.3. Disaster impacts in North Central region of Viet Nam, 1979–1998 (Van Viet, 1999)
Total killed Typhoons Floods Flash floods Tornadoes

No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %
People killed 2 642 100 1 769 67 592 22 0 0 262 10
Houses
417 941 100 306 646 73 46 829 11 1 0 10 172 2
collapsed
Paddy crop
399 531 100 253 775 64 52 583 13 390 0 10 524 3
unharvested
Money loss
(in 1 000 2 736 100 1 890 69 728 27 2 0 114 4
million vnd)
The effects of droughts, famines and heatwaves are and putting in place land management and agricul-
much harder to quantify. The effects are devastat- tural practices that will help mitigate the possibly
ing and impacts can span just a couple of months devastating effects of drought (Warrick, 1980).
or stretch to a decade or more. Some historical
drought/famines with loss of life are described Severe and damaging tornadoes are mainly a North
below. American phenomenon. The United States is the
“tornado capital of the world” and has more torna-
Numerous drought-related disasters have occurred does annually than any other country on the globe.
over the Asian mainland during the last century. Two notable outbreaks include the “Super Tornado
The most notable Asian droughts include: Outbreak of 1974” (315 deaths) and the “Tri-State
(a) Indian drought of 1900 – between 250 000 Tornado of 1925” (695 deaths).
and 3.25 million people died due to drought,
starvation and disease; A blizzard in Iran in February 1972 ended a four-
(b) Chinese famine of 1907 – Over 24 million year drought, but the weeklong cold and snow
perished from starvation; caused the deaths of approximately 4 000 people.
(c) Chinese famine from 1928 to 1930 – Over
3 million perished in north-west China; The European storm surge during the winter months
(d) Chinese famine of 1936 – 5 million Chinese of January and February 1953 was one of Europe’s
died in what is called the “New Famine”; greatest natural disasters. Violent winter storms
(e) Chinese drought from 1941 to 1942 – Over caused storm surges, which resulted in flooding in
3 million perished from starvation; areas of the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
(f) Indian drought from 1965 to 1967 – Over Almost 2 000 people perished due to these storm
1.5 million perished in India; surges.
(g) Drought in the Soviet Union (Ukraine and
Volga regions) from 1921 to 1922 – between The Great Smog of London occurred in December
250 000 and 5 million perished. 1952. Stagnant air due to an inversion combined
with industrial and residential emissions to create
The Sahel region of Africa has experienced drought in an air pollution episode without parallel in this
a number of different years. Famines/droughts have century. Casualties, attributed to the poisonous air,
occurred in the Sahel in 1910–1914, 1940–1944 and rose to 4 000, with 4 000 additional fatalities due to
1970–1985. Drought in the Sahel claimed over related causes.
600 000 lives in 1972–1975 and again in 1984–1985.
Significant El Niño effects were seen in 1982 and
The American Dust Bowl of the 1930s lasted almost 1983. El Niño and La Niña events tend to alternate
an entire decade and covered virtually the entire within every three to seven years. The time from
United States Great Plains. The Dust Bowl drought one event to the next can vary from 1 to 10 years,
and associated high temperatures, strong winds, however. The economic impacts of the 1982–1983
duststorms and insect infestations resulted in an El Niño were huge. Along the west coast of South
agricultural depression that further aggravated the America, the losses exceeded the benefits. The fish-
country’s Great Depression of the 1930s, affecting ing industries in Ecuador and Peru suffered heavily
the livelihood and health of millions of people. The when their anchovy harvest failed and their
rainfall deficits that caused the Dust Bowl are the sardines unexpectedly moved south into Chilean
result of natural cycles of the atmosphere in the waters. Changed circulation patterns also steered
Great Plains. In fact, paleoclimatic evidence points tropical systems off their usual tracks to islands
to the occurrence of multi-year droughts in the such as Hawaii and Tahiti, which are usually unaf-
Great Plains at a rate of one or two per century, with fected by such severe weather. They caused the
even longer droughts, or mega-droughts that last monsoon rains to fall over central parts of the
for many decades, occurring at a rate of one to three Pacific Ocean instead of the Western Pacific. The
per thousand years (Overpeck, 2000). Although the lack of rain in the Western Pacific led to droughts
rainfall deficits during the Dust Bowl years were and disastrous forest fires in Indonesia and
caused by natural variability of the atmosphere, Australia. Winter storms battered Southern
poor land management and agricultural practices California and caused widespread flooding across
during the 1920s further aggravated the situation the southern United States, while unusually mild
by making the Great Plains more vulnerable to weather and a lack of snow was evident across
wind erosion, depletion of soil moisture and nutri- much of the central and north-eastern portion of
ents, and drought. The Dust Bowl event highlights the United States. Overall, the loss to the world
the importance of assessing risk on a regional basis economy in 1982–1983 as a result of the climate
changes due to El Niño amounted to over duties and responsibilities of all agencies with
US$ 8 billion. The toll in terms of human suffering respect to drought;
is much more difficult to estimate (NOAA, 1994). (c) Maintaining a current inventory of drought
assistance and mitigation programmes used
in assessing and responding to drought emer-
gencies, and providing a set of appropriate
7.8 DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING action recommendations;
POLICY TO REDUCE THE RISK AND (d) Identifying drought-prone areas and vulner-
IMPACT OF EXTREME EVENTS able sectors, population groups and environ-
ments;
The Typhoon Committee, the first of the five tropi- (e) Identifying mitigation actions that can be
cal cyclone regional bodies, was established under taken to address vulnerabilities and reduce
the auspices of WMO and the United Nations drought impacts;
Economic and Social Commission for the Pacific (f) Providing a mechanism to ensure timely and
(ESCAP) in 1968. The Committee continues to work accurate assessment of drought’s impacts on
towards the reduction of damage caused by agriculture, livestock production, industry,
typhoons and floods in the western North Pacific municipalities, wildlife, health, and other
and South China Sea region. In its more than 40 areas, as well as specific population groups;
years of existence, substantial advances have been (g) Collecting, analysing and disseminating
made by National Meteorological Centres in the drought-related information in a timely and
region towards meeting their responsibilities for systematic manner;
providing warnings of tropical cyclones and storms (h) Keeping the public informed of current condi-
surges (Lao, 2006). tions and mitigation and response actions by
providing accurate, timely information to
Public and private-sector institutions servicing media in print and electronic form;
government and rural communities have a role to (i) Establishing a set of procedures to continu-
play in helping rural producers cope with climate ally evaluate, exercise or test the plan, and to
variability and extreme climate and weather events periodically revise the plan so that it remains
in terms of policy and implementation, and in responsive to the needs of the people and
preparing for and mitigating the impacts of these government ministries.
events. Specific ways in which they can be of assist-
ance include: Drought plans in which mitigation is a key element
(a) Development of policy, implementation plans should have three principal components: monitor-
and infrastructure (related to meteorology, ing, early warning, and prediction; risk and impact
agriculture and natural resources); assessment; and mitigation and response. A descrip-
(b) Ensuring ready access to global, regional, tion of each of these components follows.
national and local warning systems and broad (a) Production monitoring – remote-sensing,
dissemination of warnings (the tsunami in ground validation field observations, agro-
December 2004 is a case in point); nomic models;
(c) Understanding climate variability, preparing (b) Policies to promote land care and minimize
for and managing drought at national and soil erosion, weed invasion and salinization;
regional levels, and mitigating the impact of likewise with water – safeguarding flows,
drought, flood and wildfire (public awareness, minimizing algal blooms, deciding whether
training and education). to dam or not to dam, improving water use
efficiency, and the like;
Drought planning is an integral part of drought policy (c) Mitigating the effects of extreme events – for
(Wilhite, 1991, 2005). A generic set of planning objec- instance, by implementing a policy to limit
tives has been developed that could be considered as grazing pressure and wind and water erosion,
part of a national, state/provincial or regional plan- promoting the use of seasonal forecasts,
ning effort (Wilhite, 2000). These include: promoting on-farm self-reliance and risk
(a) Establishing criteria for declaring drought and management, cultivating drought-resistant
triggering various mitigation and response plants, and so on.
activities;
(b) Providing an organizational structure that Owing to major advances in technology and
assures information flow among and within notable progress in scientific understanding, the
levels of government, as well as with non- accuracy and timeliness of weather and flood
governmental organizations, and defining the warnings have significantly improved over the
last few decades. The accuracy of forec asts of promoted actively in these high-risk zones
large-scale weather patterns for seven days is (Sivakumar, 2005).
today the same as those for two days in advance
only 25 years ago (Obasi, 1998). Forecasts up to
10 days are nowadays showing remarkable accu-
racy, and there is now the capability to provide 7.9 ON-FARM PLANNING TO REDUCE THE
some skilful information on expected weather RISK AND IMPACT OF EXTREME
patterns several seasons in advance. For example, EVENTS
early information on El Niño episodes is now
allowing advanced national planning, with Stigter et al. (2003) have emphasized the impor-
considerable advantage in many sectors of the tance of on-farm preparedness.
economy, such as in water resources manage-
ment, tourism, and fisheries and agricultural
7.9.1 Crop selection and cropping
production (Obasi, 1996). In the case of the 1997–
sequence
1998 El Niño event, advances in El Niño-related
science and in monitoring the sea surface temper- The method of selecting crop varieties based on
atures in the Pacific Ocean enabled scientists to agroclimatic requirements consists of comparing,
predict its formation further in advance than any on the one hand, the regional availability of agro-
of the previous events. With recent developments climatic resources and, on the other, the climatic
in communication technology, including the use requirements of certain crop varieties on the basis
of the Internet, information on El Niño was of which the selection is to be made. The selection
disseminated in a rapid and timely manner of varieties of plants at local or regional levels
throughout the world. This enabled many govern- should be based on agroclimatic studies carried out
ments to take appropriate measures and stimulated to determine the climatic requirements of the differ-
international cooperation and integrated efforts ent crop varieties. Agroclimatic characterization of
to address the associated impacts. crops includes solar radiation, temperature, humid-
ity and photoperiod, among the most important
The accuracy of tropical cyclone track forecasts and climatological factors.
the timeliness of warnings have also been steadily
improving in the past few years. Global efforts, There are large differences in sensitivity to frost
especially within the context of the WMO Tropical damage among crops. On a farm scale, frost-
Cyclone Programme, have resulted in a noticeable sensitive species should, if at all, be planted on
improvement in the warning systems in many parts middle slopes. Valley floors and locations where
of the world and have helped to save many lives cold air can flow should be avoided. Planting
and limit property damage. For example, the deciduous crops on slopes facing away from the sun
decrease in the death toll in Bangladesh caused by delays springtime bloom and often provides
similar tropical cyclones in 1991 and 1994, from protection. Subtropical trees are best planted on
about 130 000 to 500, respectively, was attributed slopes facing the sun where the soil and crop can
by government sources in large part to improve- receive and store more direct energy from sunlight.
ments in early warning and evacuation systems Rootstock often influences how early deciduous
(Obasi, 1997). fruit trees flower and therefore potential frost
damage. On evergreen fruit trees, rootstock may be
The evolving Internet has proven to be an invalua- also related to frost hardiness. For example, navel
ble tool in facilitating the exchange of global and oranges are more frost hardy when grown on
regional climate monitoring and prediction infor- trifoliate rootstock than they are when grown on
mation. Many users require assistance in the sweet orange rootstock (FAO, 2005).
selection, interpretation and application of appro-
priate information, however. Effective early warning
7.9.2 Selection of varieties
systems, coupled with community education for
protective action, have reduced the potential Intraspecific variability for resistance to drought,
human loss from these events. Because they repre- frost and heat stress is often large. Hence, there is
sent disaster risk, floods also lend themselves well often room for plant breeding for resistance to these
to both structural and legislative preparedness risks. For example, in citrus growing, frost may not
measures (land-use laws, zoning plans and urbani- be avoidable; however, selecting for tolerance to
zation). Preparedness in terms of life-saving sub-zero temperatures is a valuable option (Ikeda,
techniques and evacuation plans should be 1982). The selection of an appropriate variety for a
given area should take into account the frost hardi- line, weed control through interculture operations is
ness of the varieties in the species. found to be beneficial under water stress conditions.
Cover crops and weeds in orchards tend to trap air
and thus reduce heat diffusivity of the ground.
7.9.3 Land preparation
Hence, under these circumstances, minimum
As far as frost protection is concerned, deep plough- temperature is lower and frost risk increases. Mowing
ing has about the same effect as shallow ploughing the plants, without removing them, or cultivation to
on heat transfer, since the layer of soil that is involved remove them, has little if any effect on minimum
in heat transfer to the surface by conduction, on a temperature. Spraying with herbicide has a substan-
daily basis, is not thicker than about 0.3 m. tial positive effect on minimum temperature,
however. It is possible that the presence of cover
With regard to tillage methods, cultivation should be crops or weeds has a negative effect on frost resist-
avoided during periods when frost is likely to occur, ance that results from a higher concentration of
because it increases porosity of the soil and may ice-nucleation active (INA) bacteria that is known to
contribute to more evaporation in the top layer. Since occur on cover crops and weeds. Fruit trees, namely
air is a poor heat conductor, when compared to soil citrus and grapevines, are known to have lower INA
matrix and water, cultivation reduces the amount of bacteria concentrations (FAO, 2005).
heat stored in the soil during the day and transferred
to the surface during the cold night. If cultivation Early or delayed harvesting is a practical method to
cannot be avoided, a roll should be used to compact avoid frost damage that many farmers adopt to
the soil to counteract the increase in air space gener- ensure that crops are harvested before a frost period
ated by the mobilization of the soil. is likely to occur. This is in general feasible on small
farms, but often impossible on larger ones.
7.9.4 Crop management
7.9.5 Pasture and livestock
With regard to irrigation management from a frost
management
protection perspective, soils should be moist before
a frost period is likely to occur. Hence, irrigation
7.9.5.1 Preparing for and managing through
one or two days in advance of a frost night brings
drought
the soil to near field capacity, which results in an
increased soil heat flux during a subsequent frost An essential part of farming in a variable climate is
night. Various irrigation methods are also used anticipating and preparing for the next drought.
during a frost night (namely, as active methods), This needs to be incorporated into a farm’s long-
with the objective of using the heat liberated as the term management strategy, and a good manager
water cools and freezes. For details see FAO (2005). should be cognizant of those factors that threaten
the sustainability and long-term financial viability
In terms of fertilizer management, the use of ferti- of the property.
lizers, and in particular nitrogen, accelerates crop
growth and helps crops develop profuse root At the farm level, it is essential that sustainable
systems, thus making plants more capable of with- systems be developed and implemented to mini-
standing drought. The time and method of mize the impact of drought on the soils and
application are important. Nitrogen and other vegetation, and livestock need to be humanely
nutrients are known to affect frost sensitivity. In cared for or disposed of as well. The well-being of
general, nitrogen may reduce frost resistance, and farming families will also be enhanced through
phosphorus and potassium are likely to increase it better financial and risk management. Although
(WMO, 1978). New growth is more sensitive to the threat of drought cannot be removed, its impact
frost, because it tends to have less solute content in on the community and on soils, vegetation and
the tissues. Therefore, management should mini- livestock may be reduced.
mize new growth in frost-prone periods. Nitrogen
may result in increased frost resistance, however, if Conditions conducive to soil erosion by wind and
the biophysical effect of a bigger canopy offsets the water are more prevalent in drought periods
physiological effect (FAO, 2005). (Marshall, 1973). The area of bare ground within a
pasture increases with stocking rate, particularly in
As for weed management, during a dry spell or under adverse seasons (White et al., 1980). This is caused
water stress conditions, weed competition is a prob- by the associated reduction in vegetative cover and
lem for crops because weeds also use the little the drying out of the surface soil. The decision to
moisture that is available. In dryland crops sown in retain stock during drought may therefore intensify
the degradation of vegetative cover (Morley and information requires a comparison of results in each
Daniel, 1992). Wind velocity near the ground season against outcomes that would have been
increases considerably when vegetation is removed. achieved in the absence of such information. A large
Further degradation can therefore follow, with soil part of the perceived problem in the use of seasonal
erosion exacerbated by the action of wind or inten- forecasts appears to stem from the fact that as a
sive drought-breaking rains on bare soil. consequence of the delivery of weather forecasts,
prediction information was initially issued as a deter-
Self-reliant drought management is inextricably ministic forecast. Murphy (1993) stresses the need
linked to the concept of economic and environ- for uncertainties that are inherent in judgements to
mental sustainability. Rangelands and improved be properly reflected in climate forecasts.
pastures should be managed so that degradation of
soils and vegetation is minimized. This requires the Financial strategies identified by Blackburn (1992)
choice of an appropriate long-term stocking rate as leading to greater self-reliance are summarized in
and strategy for grazing management, destocking Table 7.5. When frost protection is likely to be
early in drought (Morley and Daniel 1992), and necessary, the appropriate method(s) to be used
possibly planting perennial fodder trees. Only a must be selected based both on the physical and
nucleus of productive and breeding stock should be economic risk. An MS Excel application (FrostEcon.
fed, and wethers and steers and the eldest age xls), programmed in VBA, was developed by FAO
groups of breeding ewes and cows should be sold or (2005) to help farmers anywhere in the world
destroyed, depending on the most profitable conduct the cost-effectiveness and risk analyses
options. Failed crops can be harvested for grain, cut essential to making wise financial decisions concern-
for hay or used for grazing. ing the adoption of frost protection methods.
7.9.5.1.1 Planning for management in the face of 7.9.5.1.2 Stocking rate and carrying capacity of
uncertainty (with respect to climate) the land
Budgeting is a vital part of managing risk and Long-term stocking rates should be both biologi-
preparing for drought. At a minimum it involves cally and financially sustainable after allowing for
planning for the year ahead based on assumptions drought (Morley, 1981; White 1987). Stocking rates
of both an average or better season and a drought that fail to sustain pastures or viable vegetation are
year, and then applying a probability to each. This not economically feasible in the long term. In this
can then be extended to a two- or even a five-year regard, the sustainability of agricultural systems in
estimate of cash flow, possibly including a wider some areas may need to be reassessed, given the
range of seasons. Where seasonal forecasts are being underlying capacity of the land.
used, one can include the probability that a drought
or an average or better season will be forecast, but
7.9.5.1.3 Adaptation of livestock
then one must also include the probabilities that
these forecasts will be perceived as being wrong A variety of management adaptations are available
(Table 7.4). It is essential that all possible outcomes for livestock production systems. For example,
be budgeted for in advance. Hahn and Mader (1997) outline a series of proactive
management countermeasures that can be taken
Meinke et al. (2003) point out, however, that manage- during heatwaves (for instance, shades and/or
ment decisions based on seasonal forecasts will have sprinklers) to reduce excessive heat loads. Historical
positive outcomes in some years and negative success in coping with climate variability suggests
outcomes in others. This should not be regarded as that livestock producers are likely to adjust to
either a “win” or a “failure” of the strategy employed climate change successfully. Johnson (1965)
using seasonal forecasts, since each season or year is provides examples from advances in genetics and
only a sample of one of a “not very well-defined breeding as related to the environment. These
distribution of possible outcomes”. They add that capabilities should allow adaptation to changing,
assessing the true value of this type of probabilistic less favourable circumstances associated with
projected rates of climate change. Coping can
Table 7.4. Determining seasonal probabilities entail significant dislocation costs for certain
when seasonal forecasts are available producers, however. For individual producers,
uncertainties associated with potential climate
Forecast – Drought – true v. false change imply additional risks related to how and
Good season – true v. false when to adapt current production practices
(Lewandrowski and Schimmelpfennig, 1999).
Confidence in the foregoing projections of the (c) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a
ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds global coupled ocean–atmosphere phenom-
to the physiological stresses of climate change is enon that has a cycle of about three to seven
difficult to judge. The general lack of simulations years and has profound effects on global
of livestock adaptation to climate change is prob- climate;
lematic, and the absence of a well‑developed (d) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a
livestock counterpart to crop modelling of adapta- decadal oscillation of Pacific Ocean sea surface
tion assessments suggests a major methodological temperatures that affects climate in the north-
weakness. Hence, we give only low-to-moderate ern hemisphere;
confidence in projections of successful livestock (e) A 50–80 year variability associated with the
adaptability (IPCC, 2001). tilt of the Earth’s axis (hemispheric);
(f) Milankovitch cycles (ice ages; inter-glacial
periods) based on variation of the Earth’s orbit
around the sun.
7.10 SIGNIFICANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The overriding certainty is that climate has always
changed and will continue to change. Whether
7.10.1 Climate is always changing
climate change is natural or anthropogenic is
Better understanding of weather and climate relevant here only in the context of the likely
requires monitoring and analysis of the climate direction and rate of change. The important issue
signals at different timescales. These include: at stake is the capacity of farmers and ranchers to
(a) The Madden–Julian (30–50 day) Oscillation, adapt the management of crops, rangeland and
or Intraseasonal Oscillation, which increases grassland ecosystems to a changing climate so as
the likelihood of rain every time it passes over to minimize adverse consequences.
northern Australia;
(b) The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Climate change will include changes in rainfall,
a quasi-periodic stratospheric oscillation temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
that affects the distribution of stratospheric For instance, in Australia, which has the highest
ozone and monsoon precipitation, for climate variability of any continent in the world,
example; comparable with Southern Africa, it is anticipated
Table 7.5. Financial strategies to aid drought preparedness and management

Pre-drought Build up cash reserves during good years
Budget each year assuming both normal and drought years
Stabilize income through off-farm investments

Drought forecast Budget for a long-range forecast that is either (a) right or (b) wrong
Unload prime or surplus livestock before prices drop
Identify least-cost feed supplements
Purchase fodder before its value increases
Budget to compare feeding and selling strategies
Sensitivity – drought duration, feed costs, stock prices
Evaluate alternative strategies, such as droving, agistment
Budget for selling all stock and investing off-farm

Drought Minimize financial losses to facilitate post-drought recovery
Continue comparison of feeding and selling strategies
Consider raising capital by selling off-farm investments

that the most noticeable changes will be an increase correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index
in rainfall intensity and variability and an increased in winter and spring and subsequent spring and
frequency of extreme high temperatures, with a summer rainfall (McBride and Nicholls, 1983; Stone
likelihood of more severe droughts and a greater et al., 1996; Nicholls, 1998). If producers stock their
fire risk (Jones et al., 2000). land in response to changes in the SOI, and if climate
change leads to either drier or wetter summer seasons,
Some of the consequences of climate change are they will ipso facto adjust their stocking rates accord-
likely to be beneficial. For example, increased ingly (McKeon et al., 1993). This of course assumes
atmospheric CO2 concentrations can offset the that the prevailing relationship between the SOI and
detrimental effects of drier seasons through increased summer rainfall remains unchanged, which may not
water use efficiency and yields. For grassland systems, be the case (Walsh et al., 1999). Other indices such as
particularly those based on C4 species, this can be sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and
reflected in higher carrying capacities and less Indian oceans could similarly be used.
variability in the stocking rate from year to year
(Howden et al., 1999; Reyenga et al., 1999). Climate may also change outside the range of previ-
ous experience, especially with regard to the severity
7.10.2 Adaptation to climate change and frequency of extreme conditions. Longer-term
adaptation will require some foreknowledge of the
Knowledge of climate variability can assist in adapting nature of the climate change, not simply reliance
to climate change. In eastern Australia there is a strong on recent experience.
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CHAPTER 7

CLIMATE AND WEATHER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR

7.1 INTRODUCTION As an example, an Australian survey of agricul-

Farming decision type Frequency (years)

7.2 CLIMATIC HAZARDS 7.2.2 Categories

7.2.1 Types 7.2.2.1 Drought

Drought is a shortage of water for essential needs,

Micro ϒ Micro β Micro α Meso ϒ Meso β Meso α Macro β Macro α

1 month Ultra long

20 m 200 m 2km 20km 200km 2 000km 10 000km

7.4.4 Agronomic models 7.4.4.2 Pasture response

communications; towns and settlements; rivers/ 7.4.6.2 Soil moisture index

In arid, semi-arid and marginal areas with a probabil-

1996 499 720 590 829 741

1998 214 104 461 208

Total killed Typhoons Floods Flash floods Tornadoes

Table 7.5. Financial strategies to aid drought preparedness and management

Budget each year assuming both normal and drought years

Stabilize income through off-farm investments

Unload prime or surplus livestock before prices drop

Identify least-cost feed supplements

Purchase fodder before its value increases

Budget to compare feeding and selling strategies

Sensitivity – drought duration, feed costs, stock prices

Evaluate alternative strategies, such as droving, agistment

Budget for selling all stock and investing off-farm

Continue comparison of feeding and selling strategies

Consider raising capital by selling off-farm investments

FURTHER READING Perspectives (L.C. Botterill and M. Fisher, eds).

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