CIWEM RCG Emergingapproachesforfuturefloodmanagement 2
CIWEM RCG Emergingapproachesforfuturefloodmanagement 2
CIWEM RCG Emergingapproachesforfuturefloodmanagement 2
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Abstract
This paper describes the European research project FLOODsite and its relationship to the proposed EU
Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks. FLOODsite is providing underpinning
applied scientific developments which support the move in policy from flood management to flood
risk management through a combination of research in risk analysis, sustainable risk management, and
integration of knowledge. The developments are being made in the context of pilot studies of river,
estuary and coastal flooding at several locations in France, Germany, Spain, the Czech Republic, the
Netherlands, Hungary and the UK. The paper provides an update on the research progress so far; the
project continues until early 2009.
Key Words
Flood risk management, research and innovation, EU Directive.
Context
Flood management in Europe is changing. There is a move from flood protection and defence to
comprehensive flood risk management. This is reflected in many national policy frameworks such as
the UK (Making Space for Water), and in the Netherlands (Room for the river). Indeed the emphasis
has changed from managing the physical flood to managing flood risks. This change in approach is
evident at the highest level of policy from the proposal for an EU Directive on the assessment and
management of flood risks (Commission for the European Communities, 2006)
To understand why this is so, it is necessary to reflect upon the nature of floods and flood risk. There
are many definitions of the word “flood” and the concept of “flood risk” in use, see for example
(FLOODsite, 2005). The proposed EU Directive contains the following definitions which will be used
in this paper:
“flood” means temporary covering by water of land not normally covered by water
“flood risk” means the likelihood of a flood event of a certain severity together with the estimated
damage to human health, the environment and economic activity associated with a flood event of
that severity
This means that flood risk is entirely a human concern; floods are a natural phenomenon being an
integral part of the hydro-meteorological cycle. Without people or (society) to experience the harm
that flooding can cause and give a value to it, there is no risk. Flood risk management does include
flood management (i.e. of the water) but also incorporates other actions and activities to influence the
human and environmental consequences of the flood.
This move to flood risk management requires methodologies to analyse and quantify the level of flood
risk and a comprehensive view of what constitutes the process of flood risk management.
Risk analysis needs to take account of the probability of a flood occurring, the performance of flood
defence infrastructure in mitigating the effects of the flood (or failing to do so) and the consequences
of the inundation on the people, property and environment that is exposed to the flood. Risk analysis
is a method of combining these factors objectively for the current “climate” of flooding and social and
environmental conditions or for some future scenario for these factors.
Embedded in the above is the need to keep under review the various components of the process to
ensure their effectiveness and to maintain the use of “sound science” by incorporating developments in
knowledge and understanding into practice. It is complex as it involves many actors and stakeholders
with differing needs and perspectives. It also needs to respond to external drivers such as climate
change and societal expectations and values.
The RIBAMOD principles of flood management describe the actions necessary in the three phases of
pre-flood (preventative) measures, flood emergency and post-flood recovery. The RIBAMOD
principles (Kundzewicz and Samuels, 1997) remain appropriate a decade after they were formulated;
they are as follows:
Pre-flood activities which include:
flood risk management for all causes of flooding
disaster contingency planning to establish evacuation routes, critical decision thresholds,
public service and infrastructure requirements for emergency operations etc.
construction of flood defence infrastructure, both physical defences and implementation of
forecasting and warning systems,
maintenance of flood defence infrastructure
land-use planning and management within the whole catchment,
discouragement of inappropriate development within the flood plains, and
public communication and education of flood risk and actions to take in a flood emergency.
Operational flood management which can be considered as a sequence of four activities:
detection of the likelihood of a flood forming (hydro-meteorology),
forecasting of future river flow conditions from the hydro-meteorological observations,
warning issued to the appropriate authorities and the public on the extent, severity and timing of
the flood, and
response to the emergency by the public and the authorities.
The post-flood activities may include (depending upon the severity of the event):
relief for the immediate needs of those affected by the disaster,
reconstruction of damaged buildings, infrastructure and flood defences,
recovery and regeneration of the environment and the economic activities in the flooded area,
and
review of the flood management activities to improve the process and planning for future
events in the area affected and more generally, elsewhere.
One imminent change to flood management policy across the EU will come from agreement on the
current proposal for a Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks and its transposition
into national legislation. The proposed EU Directive is likely to result in the convergence of national
approaches to flood risk assessment and management, however, the European principles of
Subsidiarity and proportionality will allow for physiographic, demographic, economic, cultural,
institutional and historical differences.
On 27 June 2006, the Council of the EU reached political agreement on the draft directive and on 23 rd
November 2006 adopted a Common Position on the assessment and management of flood risks. This
Council of the EU (2006) Common Position is now under active discussion and negotiation with the
European Parliament, and it is to be expected that the final agreed wording of the Directive may differ
in some details from the outline given below. However, there appears to be acceptance of the three
key components of the Council Common Position.
Key elements of the proposed Directive
Preliminary flood risk assessment (Articles 4 & 5)
It is essential that action will only be taken in areas where potential significant flood risks exist or are
reasonably foreseeable in the future. If in a particular river basin, sub-basin or stretch of coastline no
potential significant flood risk exists or is reasonably foreseeable in the future; Member States would
be able to identify them in the preliminary flood risk assessment. For these river basins and/or sub-
basins no further action would have to be taken.
Flood Hazard Maps and Flood risk maps (Article 6)
Flood hazards and risks will be mapped for the river basins and sub-basins with significant potential
risk of flooding for three scenarios
(a) Floods with a low probability or extreme event scenarios
(b) Floods with a medium probability (likely return period > 100 years)
(c) Floods with high probability, where appropriate
The maps may show information related to flood extent, depths and velocity of water and the potential
adverse consequences.
Flood risk management plans (Article 7)
Flood risk management plans will be developed and implemented at river basin or sub-basin level to
reduce and manage the flood risk where identifies as necessary in the preliminary flood risk
assessment. These plans will focus on the reduction of potential adverse consequences of flooding for
human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity, and, if considered
appropriate, on non-structural initiatives and/or on the reduction of the likelihood of flooding.
Boundaries and International Basins (Article 8)
Article 8 covers the boundaries of plans and in particular the need for collaboration between Member
States for international river basins which extend across several Member States or beyond the
boundaries of the Community.
The Implementation of the Directive
Timetable
In the Council Common Position of November 2006, the implementation timetable is set out as:
the preliminary flood risk assessment should be complete by 22 December 2012;
the flood hazard and flood risk maps are to be complete by 22 December 2013
Some more information on FLOODsite is presented later in this paper and much more is available
from the project website www.floodsite.net.
FLOODsite is delivering advances in several areas of direct relevance to the three main activities of
the proposed directives – preliminary flood risk assessment, the preparation of flood risk maps and the
preparation (and implementation) of flood risk management plans. FLOODsite has already
However, the existence of raised defences may be taken as an indication that risk maps and plans need
to be prepared. In that case the contribution of the science in Tasks 4, 6 and 7 will be directly in these
subsequent activities. Likewise it is not yet clear whether the flood damage estimation guidelines
developed in Task 9 or the estimation of loss-of-life developed in Task 10 will be needed in
preliminary assessments. If the preliminary flood risk assessment requires initial drafting of flood
inundation and consequence maps, then other FLOODsite results are also relevant as discussed in the
paragraphs below on the preparation of Flood Risk Maps.
Potential Support for the preparation of Flood Risk Maps
There are many mapping technologies available – from advanced topographic survey such as LiDAR
to commercial GIS to overlay flood outlines with socio-economic data. The Exchange Circle
EXCIMAP is preparing current practice guidance on flood risk mapping. FLOODsite is not
undertaking research on the development of GIS but is making use of this as a commercially available
technology.
Flood risk mapping will require both the hazard and the consequences of flooding to be assessed and
FLOODsite is contributing knowledge relevant to these activities. It is this greater clarity of approach
to risk assessment and for some specific physical processes that FLOODsite will make its main
contribution to the scientific basis of the flood risk maps. The contributions to knowledge will be
developed and tested in the context of our pilot sites in Theme 4.
Task 1 has researched the hydro meteorological processes that govern flash flooding, in particular, the
stationarity of storms and the hydrological behaviour of small mountainous catchments. This has led
to new models of extreme flood response in ungauged basins, and, although the flash flood work in
FLOODsite is directed at improved forecasting this understanding may also improve flood estimation
for mapping the hazard in small mountainous catchments. As noted above the outputs of Task 2
provide up-to-date statistical tools for assessing the probability of extreme events. Task 3 is
developing and testing a general procedure for building a European Flood Hazard Atlas (as opposed to
risk maps) based upon the FLOODsite methodology; the testing will be mainly for coastal areas.
The project is developing a deeper understanding of the elements of risk and this will be available to
support the flood risk mapping process. The understanding of reliability of defences from Tasks 4, 6
and 7 will enable a fuller assessment of risk to be prepared through factoring the likelihood of defence
failures into the assessment of risk. In Task 8, models for flood inundation are being benchmarked,
and this will lead to guidance on the suitability of hydrodynamic modelling approaches for hazard and
risk mapping.
It should be recognised that the process models and decision support software will require further
development for application in practice. The FLOODsite project will prototype methods and pilot
their application but only to a pre-competitive level.
A draft method for the evaluation of measures and instruments has been developed addressing effects,
effectiveness, efficiency, robustness and flexibility of interventions. This method has been tested in 5
case studies (Elbe, Tisza, Upper-Tisza, Oder and residential areas along the Elbe). Work has
completed (in Task 13) on the analysis of current pre-flood risk management with regard to
different types of floods,
a broad spectrum of physical measures and policy instruments,
the formulation and implementation of strategic alternatives, and
different physical, cultural, political, social and economic conditions of urban and regional
development.
This work has been tested on case studies in Germany, the UK and Italy and reporting is complete.
Other work has focussed on the design of alternative flood risk management strategies and on how to
assess their sustainability; in view of an uncertain future (by scenario approach); design of strategic
A review and evaluation of integral uncertainty propagation methods in flood models has been
completed. The focus was on methods which compute total uncertainties without attempting to
separate contributions from different sources. A general methodology for the use of computational
intelligence methods to propagate integral uncertainty through flood models has been developed. This
method is referred as UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering (UNEEC). The
UNEEC has been implemented in computer code. Testing of this methodology on typical conceptual
hydrological models has been accomplished. Work has begun on the development of an example
application of a framework for uncertainty in the Thames pilot.
Pilot studies
The pilot studies have already made significant progress in data compilation and model
parameterisation and calibration. Links to other tasks have been identified with consideration of data
availability and other necessary information. As all of the pilot sites are embedded in flood
management in practice, the approaches within them vary from comprehensive flood risk management
to investigations of single items. Some examples follow:
In the Elbe pilot (Task 21) in the Mulde basin, the meteorological working group regionalised
climate projections along IPCC scenarios for the investigation of flood events under future
conditions. A weather generator was developed to downscale daily data of the scenarios to hourly.
Thus rainfall-runoff models for the Upper Mulde catchment have been set up and verified.
Following the climate scenarios flood characteristics under possible future climatic conditions have
been investigated.
In the Tisza pilot (Task 22) scenario analysis of partial floodplain reactivation with controlled
inundation has been completed.
In the Thames pilot (Task 24) a sophisticated system model of the Thames Estuary has been
developed that includes joint probability calculations, defence reliability, through a Monte-Carlo
sampling approach – this has been allied to a rapid flood spreading method and economic damage
model to create a sophisticated and practical modelling tool. The model has been run for a number
The Schelde pilot (Task 25) has examined the way local knowledge of flood risk differs from
scientific knowledge obtained from flood modelling. In the previous reporting year a number of in-
depth interviews were held with local residents living in the flood prone area of the Schelde. In the
workshop that was held in January 2007 the same local stakeholders were invited that were
previously interviewed.
Outputs and publication
Results from the project science continue to be published in peer-reviewed journals and at
international scientific conferences; the project team has identified 170 actual or planned publications
in Year 3 and at the end of Year 3, the web pages contained 100 documents for public download.
Research links
In all links have been identified to 79 external projects and actions and most of these links have been
active since the outset of the research. Eight projects or actions emerged as having links into three or
more FLOODsite tasks, as tabulated below.
Significant challenges will be encountered in the implementation of the policy of flood risk
management rather than the traditional approach of flood defence since it will require public
understanding and acceptance of a degree of risk. The socio-economic research in FLOODsite is
beginning to address these issues.
Flood management decisions are made in the context of substantial complexity and uncertainty. There
is a need to embrace this uncertainty in a way that the “right” structural decisions are made; the less
adaptable these are the longer we need to look into the future in order to choose the line of least regret.
This is the focus on the integration frameworks in FLOODsite which are designed to support the
development of flood risk management measures and instruments over the generational timescale.
Acknowledgement
The work described in this paper was supported by the European Community’s Sixth Framework
Programme through the grant to the budget of the Integrated Project FLOODsite, Contract GOCE-CT-
2004-505420.
This paper reflects only the author’s views and not those of the European Community. The
information in this paper is provided “as is” and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information
is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and that neither
the European Community nor any member of the FLOODsite Consortium is liable for any use that
may be made of the information.
References
Commission for the European Communities (2006) “Proposal for a Directive of the European
Parliament and of the Council on the assessment and management of floods” COM (2006) 15 final:
Brussels, 18 January 2006
Council of the EU (2006) “Common position adopted by the Council on 23 November 2006 with a
view to the adoption of a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the assessment
and management of flood risks”, Document ref 12131/6/06 REV 6, Brussels, available at
http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/06/st12/st12131-re06.en06.pdf
FLOODsite Consortium (2005) Language of Risk, Project definitions, FLOODsite Report T32-04-01,
March 2005, available at www.floodsite.net
Kundzewicz Z & Samuels P G (1997), Conclusions of the Worksop and Expert Meeting, RIBAMOD
River basin modelling management and flood mitigation Concerted Action, Proceedings of the
Workshop and Second Expert Meeting on Integrated Systems for Real Time Flood forecasting and
Warning, Eds Casale R, Borga M, Baltas E & Samuels P, Directorate General for Research and
Development, European Commission, Luxembourg, ISBN 92-828-6074-4 (1999)