Lecture 08 Risk Analysis

Today
• The Risk Assessment Process

• Consequence Assessment Methods
• Risk Evaluation and Presentation
• Subjective Prioritization
• Risk Categorization/Risk Matrix
• Risk Sensitivity
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The Risk Assessment Process is illustrated in the following figure.
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Consequence Assessment Methods
• Consequence modeling typically involves the use of analytical models to

predict the effect of a particular event of concern.
Examples of consequence models include:

• Atmospheric dispersion models
• Blast and thermal radiation models
• Aquatic transport models
• Mitigation models.
Most consequence modeling today makes use of computerized analytical
models.
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Use of these models in the performance of a risk assessment typically
involves four activities:
i) Characterizing the source of the material or energy associated with the

hazard being analyzed
ii) Measuring (through costly experiments) or estimating (using models and
correlations) the transport of the material and/or the propagation of the
energy in the environment to the target of interest
iii) Identifying the effects of the propagation of energy or material on the
target of interest
iv) Quantifying the health, safety, environmental, or economic impacts on the
target of interest
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The result from the consequence assessment step is an estimate of the
statistically expected exposure of the target population to the hazard of
interest and the safety/health effects related to that level of exposure.
For example:
i) One hundred people will be exposed to air concentrations above the
emergency response planning guidelines (e.g., ERPG-2)
ii) Ten victims are expected if this explosion occurs
iii) If this event occurs, 1,200 lb. of material are expected to be released to
the environment
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The form of consequence estimate generated should be determined by the
objectives and scope of the study .
Consequences are usually stated in the expected number of injuries or
casualties or, in some cases, exposure to certain levels of energy or
material release .
These estimates customarily account for average meteorological conditions

and population distribution and may include more factors, such as
evacuation and sheltering. In some cases, simply assessing the quantity of
material or energy released will provide an adequate basis for decision
making. Like frequency estimates, consequence estimates may have very
large uncertainties.
Estimates that vary by a factor of up to two orders of magnitude can result

from
(1) basic uncertainties in chemical/physical properties,
(2) differences in average versus time-dependent meteorological conditions,
and/or
(3) modeling uncertainties.
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Risk Evaluation and Presentation
Once the hazards and potential mishaps or events have been identified
for a system or process, and the frequencies and consequences
associated with these events have been estimated, we are able to
evaluate the relative risks associated with the events.
There are a variety of qualitative and quantitative techniques used to

do this.
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Subjective Prioritization
Perhaps the simplest qualitative form of risk characterization is

subjective prioritization. In this technique, the analysis team
identifies potential mishap scenarios using structured hazard
analysis techniques (e.g., HAZOP, FMEA). The analysis team
subjectively assigns each scenario a priority category based on the
perceived level of risk.
Priority categories can be:

i) Low, medium, high;
ii) Numerical assignments; or
iii) Priority levels.
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Risk Categorization/Risk Matrix
Another method to characterize risk is categorization. In this case, the analyst
must
(1) define the likelihood and consequence categories to be used in
evaluating each scenario
(2) define the level of risk associated with likelihood/consequence category
combination.
Frequency and consequence categories can be developed in a qualitative or
quantitative manner.
Qualitative schemes (i.e., low, medium, or high) typically use qualitative
criteria and examples of each category to ensure consistent event
classification.
Multiple consequence classification criteria may be required to address
safety, environmental, operability and other types of consequences.
Table 1 and Table 2 provide examples of criteria for categorization of
consequences and likelihood.
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Once assignment of consequences and
likelihoods is complete, a risk matrix
can be used as a mechanism for
assigning risk (and making risk
acceptance decisions), using a risk
categorization approach.
Each cell in the matrix corresponds to a
specific combination of likelihood and
consequence and can be assigned a
priority number or some other risk
descriptor (as shown in Figure 4). An
organization must define the
categories that it will use to score risks
and, more importantly, how it will
prioritize and respond to the various
levels of risks associated with cells in
the matrix.
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Risk Sensitivity
When presenting quantitative risk assessment results, it is often desirable to

demonstrate the sensitivity of the risk estimates to changes in critical
assumptions made within the analysis.
This can help illustrate the range of uncertainty associated with the exercise.
Risk sensitivity analyses can also be used to demonstrate the effectiveness
of certain risk reduction approaches.
For example, if by increasing inspection frequency on a piece of equipment,

the failure rate could be reduced; a sensitivity analysis could be used to
demonstrate the difference in estimated risk levels when inspection
frequencies are varied.
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Lecture 08 Risk Analysis

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Lecture 08 Risk Analysis

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Today

• The Risk Assessment Process

• Consequence modeling typically involves the use of analytical models to

Examples of consequence models include:

i) Characterizing the source of the material or energy associated with the

These estimates customarily account for average meteorological conditions

Estimates that vary by a factor of up to two orders of magnitude can result

There are a variety of qualitative and quantitative techniques used to

Perhaps the simplest qualitative form of risk characterization is

Priority categories can be:

When presenting quantitative risk assessment results, it is often desirable to

For example, if by increasing inspection frequency on a piece of equipment,

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