Lecture 06 Risk Analysis

Today
• Introduction
• Hazard Identification Methods
• Safety audit
– Hazard Identification (HAZID) Technique
– What-if Analysis / Brainstorming
– Checklist Analysis
– Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis
– Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
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The Risk Assessment Process is illustrated in the following figure (Figure 1),
and the results possible from qualitative and quantitative approaches
are described.
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Risk Assessment Methods
• There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been
developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. Some of these methods
are summarized in Figure 2. A key to any successful risk analysis is
choosing the right method (or combination of methods) for the situation
at hand.
• For each step of the Risk Assessment Process, the following section
provide a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and
suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision
making within the maritime and offshore industries. It should be noted
that some of these methods (or slight variations) can be used for more
than one step in the risk assessment process.
• Figure 2 lists the methods only under the most common step to avoid
repetition
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Hazard Identification Methods
Because hazards are the source of events that can lead to

undesirable consequences, analyses to understand risk
exposures must begin by understanding the hazards present.
Although hazard identification seldom provides information
directly needed for decision making, it is a critical step.
The following are some of the commonly used techniques to

identify hazards.
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Hazard Identification (HAZID) Technique
HAZID is a general term used to describe an exercise whose

goal is to identify hazards and associated events that have
the potential to result in a significant consequence.
• For example , a HAZID of an offshore petroleum facility may

be conducted to identify potential hazards which could result
in consequences to personnel (e.g., injuries and fatalities),
environmental (oil spills and pollution), and financial assets
(e.g., production loss/delay).
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• The HAZID technique can be applied to all or part of a facility
or vessel or it can be applied to analyze operational
procedures. Depending upon the system being evaluated and
the resources available, the process used to conduct a HAZID
can vary.
• Typically, the system being evaluated is divided into

manageable parts, and a team is led through a
brainstorming session (often with the use of checklists) to
identify potential hazards associated with each part of the
system. This process is usually performed with a team
experienced in the design and operation of the facility, and
the hazards that are considered significant are prioritized for
further evaluation.
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What-if Analysis
• What-if analysis is a brainstorming approach that uses

broad, loosely structured questioning to
(1) suggest potential upsets that may result in mishaps or
system performance problems and
(2) ensure that appropriate safeguards against those problems
are in place.
This technique relies upon a team of experts brainstorming to

generate a comprehensive review and can be used for any
activity or system.
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• If analysis generates qualitative descriptions of potential
problems (in the form of questions and responses) as well as
lists of recommendations for preventing problems. It is
applicable for almost every type of analysis application,
especially those dominated by relatively simple failure
scenarios. It can occasionally be used alone, but most often is
used to supplement other, more structured techniques
(especially checklist analysis).
• Table 1 is an example of a portion of a what-if analysis of a

vessel’s compressed air system.
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Checklist Analysis
• Checklist analysis is a systematic evaluation against pre-

established criteria in the form of one or more checklists. It is
applicable for high-level or detailed-level analysis and is used
primarily to provide structure for interviews, documentation
reviews and field inspections of the system being analyzed.
• The technique generates qualitative lists of conformance and

nonconformance determinations with recommendations for
correcting non-conformances. Checklist analysis is frequently used
as a supplement to or integral part of another method (especially
what-if analysis) to address specific requirements. Table 2 is an
example of a portion of a checklist analysis of a vessel’s
compressed air system.
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Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis
The HAZOP analysis technique uses special guidewords to

prompt an experienced group of individuals to identify
potential hazards or operability concerns relating to pieces of
equipment or systems. Guidewords describing potential
deviations from design intent are created by applying a
predefined set of adjectives (i.e. high, low, no, etc.) to a pre-
defined set of process parameters (flow, pressure,
composition, etc.).
• The group then brainstorms potential consequences of these
deviations and if a legitimate concern is identified, they
ensure that appropriate safeguards are in place to help
prevent the deviation from occurring.
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• This type of analysis is generally used on a system level and
generates primarily qualitative results, although some simple
quantification is possible. The primary use of the HAZOP
methodology is identification of safety hazards and operability
problems of continuous process systems (especially fluid and
thermal systems).
• For example, this technique would be applicable for an oil

transfer system consisting of multiple pumps, tanks, and
process lines.
• The HAZOP analysis can also be used to review procedures
and sequential operations. Table 3 is an example of a portion
of a HAZOP analysis performed on a compressed air system
onboard a vessel.
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Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• FMEA is an inductive reasoning approach that is best suited
for reviews of mechanical and electrical hardware systems
not appropriate to broader marine issues such as harbor
transit or overall vessel safety.
The FMEA technique

(1) considers how the failure mode of each system component
can result in system performance problems
(2) ensures that appropriate safeguards against such problems
are in place.
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• This technique is applicable to any well-defined system, but
the primary use is for reviews of mechanical and electrical
systems (e.g., fire suppression systems, vessel
steering/propulsion systems). It also is used as the basis for
defining and optimizing planned maintenance for equipment
because the method systematically focuses directly and
individually on equipment failure modes.
• FMEA generates qualitative descriptions of potential

performance problems (failure modes, root causes, effects,
and safeguards) and can be expanded to include Quantitative
failure frequency and/or consequence estimates. Table 4 is
an example of a portion of an FMEA performed on a
compressed air system onboard a vessel.
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Lecture 06 Risk Analysis

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Lecture 06 Risk Analysis

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Today

Because hazards are the source of events that can lead to

The following are some of the commonly used techniques to

HAZID is a general term used to describe an exercise whose

• For example , a HAZID of an offshore petroleum facility may

• Typically, the system being evaluated is divided into

• What-if analysis is a brainstorming approach that uses

This technique relies upon a team of experts brainstorming to

• Table 1 is an example of a portion of a what-if analysis of a

• Checklist analysis is a systematic evaluation against pre-

• The technique generates qualitative lists of conformance and

The HAZOP analysis technique uses special guidewords to

• For example, this technique would be applicable for an oil

The FMEA technique

• FMEA generates qualitative descriptions of potential

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