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Lecture 05 Risk Analysis

Failure can take two forms: serviceability failures where a system cannot fully perform to specifications, and complete loss of function failures. Reliability analysis methods like FMEA and FMECA involve analyzing failure modes, effects, and criticality. Availability relates to the likelihood of a system working over time, while unavailability captures times when a system is broken or under repair. Reliability data like time to failure and demand failures are used in structural reliability calculations. Risk assessment involves identifying hazards, assessing failure frequency and consequences, and evaluating risk levels either qualitatively or quantitatively.

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9 views8 pages

Lecture 05 Risk Analysis

Failure can take two forms: serviceability failures where a system cannot fully perform to specifications, and complete loss of function failures. Reliability analysis methods like FMEA and FMECA involve analyzing failure modes, effects, and criticality. Availability relates to the likelihood of a system working over time, while unavailability captures times when a system is broken or under repair. Reliability data like time to failure and demand failures are used in structural reliability calculations. Risk assessment involves identifying hazards, assessing failure frequency and consequences, and evaluating risk levels either qualitatively or quantitatively.

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rowan mamdouh
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Today

• Failure
• Availability and unavailability
• Reliability Data
• Risk Assessment Methods
Failure

There is not a single definition (all existing definitions arbitrary or


subjective)
• In general, two types of failures:
– Serviceability – a system cannot perform to specification
completely
– Complete loss of function
Analysis of different modes of failure and Analysis of different modes
of failure and resulting effects on the systems is done with a
• FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) or a
• FMECA (Failure Mode, Effect and Criticality Analysis) involves
quantitative failure analysis. The FMECA involves creating a series of
linkages between potential failures (Failure Modes), the impact on
the mission (Effects) and the causes of the failure (Causes and
Mechanisms). 2
Availability Unavailability
• Relating to maintenance • Unavailability = 1 – Average
• Average availability relates Availability
to the likelihood of a system
working and time since
installation or maintenance

Average Availability = time Expresses the time the system


system working or ready to was broken and waiting to
work / time elapsed since be fixed plus the time spent
installation or maintenance under repair and putting it
back to service

3
Reliability Data

• Failure data – with states defined as working / not working

• “time to failure” – measured usually in hours

• “demand failures” –measured in number of failures per


1,000 cycles of use

• Data for structural reliability calculations


variations in material properties, dimensions and loads

4
Human reliability data Can be obtained in two ways:

1. By experiments under controlled conditions and/or routine


testing during manufacture
– Simulating realistic service conditions; if unknown, testing
of a range of likely or possible conditions; may be an
expensive approach

2. By systematically collecting field data of failures in service


– conditions of service vary, so do the data
– Possibility of not accurate recording
– Need to relay on large samples; OREDA (Offshore
Reliability Database)

5
Risk Assessment Methods

To use a systematic method to determine risk levels, the Risk


Assessment Process is applied ( slightly different from the 5 steps
mentioned earlier) . This process consists of four basic steps:
i) Hazard Identification
ii) Frequency Assessment
iii) Consequence Assessment, and
iv) Risk Evaluation

The level of information needed to make a decision varies widely. In


some cases, after identifying the hazards, qualitative methods of
assessing frequency and consequence are satisfactory to enable
the risk evaluation. In other cases, a more detailed quantitative
analysis is required.

6
The Risk Assessment Process is illustrated in the following figure (Figure 1),
and the results possible from qualitative and quantitative approaches
are described.

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