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Lecture 02 Risk Analysis

The document discusses definitions of risk, the risk assessment process, and how to evaluate likelihood and consequences. It outlines the typical 5 steps of risk assessment and provides an example risk matrix for evaluating different levels of likelihood and consequences.

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rowan mamdouh
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53 views9 pages

Lecture 02 Risk Analysis

The document discusses definitions of risk, the risk assessment process, and how to evaluate likelihood and consequences. It outlines the typical 5 steps of risk assessment and provides an example risk matrix for evaluating different levels of likelihood and consequences.

Uploaded by

rowan mamdouh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
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Today

• Definition of Risk
• Risk Assessment
• 5 steps
• Likelihood & Consequences
• Process
• Typical Risk Matrix

1
Definitions of Risk
• Qualitative
– Risk is the combination of the likelihood of an
undesired event occurring and the consequences
of that event the consequences of that event
• Quantitative (QRA)
– Risk = Likelihood x Consequences
• Consequences
– People (deaths, injuries), property, third parties,
Environment (pollution)
2
Risk Assessment
• Establishes risks involved in a project (activity)
• Includes all areas of concern
• UK: HSE ( Health and Safety Executive )
requires that a risk assessment is done before
any potentially hazardous activity is
undertaken
• Usually described in five steps

3
5 Steps
1. Identify what can go wrong (events)

2. Estimate the likelihood of these events occurring

3. Examine the possible consequences of these events

4. Decide which risks are tolerable and which are not

5. Modify the activity so that all intolerable risks are reduced or


eliminated

4
Likelihood & Consequences
A risk may involve a sequence of events and the likelihood of
each events and the likelihood of each event needs to be
assessed.

• For example: Loss of life due to an explosion in a galley:


estimation of the likelihood of a leak, probable size of the leak,
possibility of ignition before dispersed in atmosphere,
likelihood of someone being in the vicinity.

• Data to calculate the likelihoods, use of probability theory to


combine of probability theory to combine these likelihoods

5
Process

6
Important points
• Identify ALL potential hazards (a hazard not identified
cannot be assessed!)

• Qualitative estimation of risks is the task that follows


(using Risk matrices – Boston Squares)

• Quantification is important (and difficult but not


impossible to perform in most cases)

• Use COMMON SENSE!


7
Typical Risk Matrix
Likelihood Consequences

Negligible Minor Severe Catastrophic

Negligible

Low

Medium

High

Boston Square

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