Travel Demand Forecasting

TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING
FOR
URBAN TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING
What is the need of travel demand
forecasting in urban transportation
planning?
Travel Demand Forecasting is the process used to
predict travel behavior and resulting demand for a
specific future time frame, based on assumptions
dealing with landuse, the number and character of
tripmakers, and the nature of the transportation
system
1.The Need for Determining Travel Demand
• The basic purpose of transportation planning and

management is to match transportation supply with
travel demand, which represents ‘need’.
• A thorough understanding of existing travel pattern
is necessary for identifying and analyzing existing
traffic related problems. Detailed data on current
travel pattern and traffic volumes are needed also for
developing travel forecasting/prediction models
• The prediction of future travel demand is an essential
task of the long-range transportation planning process
for determining strategies for accommodating future
needs.
• These strategies may include land use policies, pricing
programs, and expansion of transportation supply –
highways and transit service.
Why travel demand forecasting is
important in transportation
engineering?
Travel demand forecasting has become an essential
ingredient of the overall transportation planning
process. For the existing base year conditions of
urban form, transportation models are developed
relating travel demand to different socio-economic
and demographic variables
2. Five of characteristics of travel
a. functional classification
b. system extent
c. system usage
d. system performance/capacity
e. system condition
3. UNITS FOR MEASURING TRAVEL DEMAND
Travel demand is measured and expressed in different ways for different
types of analysis. Examples of different units of measurement are:

a.Trip (between two areas)
b.Trip end (in a given area)
c.Traffic volume (on a road segment)
d.Person trip and vehicle trip
e.Passenger vehicle and freight vehicle
f.Person-mile traveled and vehicle-mile traveled
4. MEASURING EXISTING TRAVEL
Detailed information on existing travel is needed for two
purposes – 1) analyzing existing problems, and
2) developing mathematical models for forecasting travel.
A variety of surveys can be performed for gathering
information related to existing travel demand.

a. Time Frame for Travel Surveys.
• Since travel demand varies during a given year according to the season (or month of
year) and day of week, a decision must be made carefully to select a specific time frame
or reference for surveys. For urban transportation studies it is a common practice to
develop travel demand information for an average weekday in the ‘fall’ season.
However, the time can be different based on the nature of the problem to be analyzed.
b. Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys
• The classification of trips into the three classes of internal, external-internal (and
vice-versa), and through trips is useful for ‘meso’ scale and metropolitan level as
well as small area studies. This classification scheme is useful for developing
forecasting procedures/models as well as policies and strategies for accommodating
travel because strategies for each of these classes of travel would be different.
The origins and destinations of trips along with some other
characteristics such as trip purpose and mode of travel can be
determined in different ways:
a. Home interviews (for internal travel)

b. Roadside interviews at cordon stations (for external-
internal and through trips)
c. On-board survey on transit vehicles.
c. Traffic Volume and Passenger Counts
To determine the use of various roadway facilities and assessing their level of service,
vehicle counts are taken at selected locations along roadways. Short-count techniques
are useful provided appropriate expansion factors are developed based on previous or
ongoing research on fluctuations of traffic by hour, by weekday, and by month. All
state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) have extensive programs for gathering
traffic volume data on an annual basis. These vehicle counts usually are taken with
machines.
For urban transportation studies ‘screen lines’ and ‘cut-lines’ are established in the study
area to select traffic count locations and take counts in an organized manner so that the
major travel movements can be measured and analyzed. These counts are also used for
checking the results of travel forecasting models.
Similarly traffic counts are taken at special traffic generators such as an airport and a large
college/university to capture their unique travel generating characteristics.

5. FORECASTING FUTURE DEMAND
The need for travel demand forecasts arises in various contexts of planning --
short-range as well as long-range. Travel forecasting is one of the most important
and difficult tasks of transportation planning. There are different types of travel
prediction techniques, and the one to be used in a particular case must be
compatible with the nature of problem and scope of planning. Constraints of
available time and resource also influence the selection of a technique.

a. Predicting Response to Service Changes
Using Elasticity Coefficients
For short-range planning or a Transportation

Systems Management (TSM) study, it is often
necessary to predict the effect of a proposed change
in transportation service that can be implemented
in the near future.
b. Stated Preference Surveys and Concept Tests for
Forecasting
For transit planning it is sometimes necessary to ask people about their preference, and
their likes and dislikes for various service characteristics. These surveys are used for
determining how to improve an existing service and/or designing a new service, and
also for forecasting ridership on a new service. These attitudinal and ‘stated preference’
surveys need sound statistical design for selecting the sample and analyzing the results.
c. Forecasting Future Travel on Road Segments
and/or Transit Lines
A variety of forecasting procedures are available ranging from the extrapolation of past trends to complex
mathematical models involving several steps. A transportation planner must recognize the advantages and
disadvantages of each procedure. Two procedures are examined for illustration.
c.1.Direct Estimation of Traffic Volume by Trend Analysis
If traffic volume data are available for a road segment or a transit line of interest for several years in the past, the
historical trend can be identified and extrapolated to estimate future volumes.
c.2. Stepwise/Sequential Procedure

A widely used travel estimation procedure for long-range forecasts of traffic volumes on a highway network uses
several steps in a sequence
What are the four steps of travel
demand forecasting?
Four steps of travel forecasting
a. trip generation
b. trip distribution
c. modal split
d. travel assignments
A. TRIP GENERATION
Trip generation is the first step of the four-step

modeling procedure. It is a very important step
since it sets up not only the framework for the
following tasks but also some of the controlling
values such as the total number of trips generated
in the study area by location and trip purpose.
The commonly used units for trip generation
analysis usually include a household, a ‘dwelling
unit’ (DU), and a business establishment. However,
the results of a trip generation analysis for a study
area are aggregated based on larger areas known as
‘traffic zones.
B. TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Trip distribution uses characteristics of

the transportation network and regional
demographics to distribute the trip ends from the
generation model to specific origins and
destinations amongst the states. The allocation of
person and vehicle trips to a particular travel mode
occurs in the mode choice model.
C. MODAL SPLIT
The modal split, also known as modal share or mode choice,
is a common and widespread indicator in transportation
engineering to evaluate transportation behaviour. In brief, the
modal split shows the percentage of travellers using a
particular mode of transport compared to the ratio of all trips
made.
Modal split models aim to determine the number of trips on
different modes given the travel demand between different
pairs of nodes (zones).
D. TRAVEL ASSIGNMENT
Travel assignment or trip assignment is the process in which
the volumes on the transportation system are estimated.
These can be present-day volumes on an existing network or
forecasted volumes on alternative future systems.
The major aims of traffic assignment procedures are: To
estimate the volume of traffic on the links of the network and
possibly the turning movements at intersections. To furnish
estimates of travel costs between trip origins and destinations
for use in trip distribution.

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TRAVEL DEMAND

• The basic purpose of transportation planning and

Travel demand is measured and expressed in different ways for different

types of analysis. Examples of different units of measurement are:

Detailed information on existing travel is needed for two

purposes – 1) analyzing existing problems, and

2) developing mathematical models for forecasting travel.

A variety of surveys can be performed for gathering

information related to existing travel demand.

or reference for surveys. For urban transportation studies it is a common practice to

forecasting procedures/models as well as policies and strategies for accommodating

a. Home interviews (for internal travel)

ongoing research on fluctuations of traffic by hour, by weekday, and by month. All

state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) have extensive programs for gathering

checking the results of travel forecasting models.

college/university to capture their unique travel generating characteristics.

short-range as well as long-range. Travel forecasting is one of the most important

prediction techniques, and the one to be used in a particular case must be

compatible with the nature of problem and scope of planning. Constraints of

available time and resource also influence the selection of a technique.

For short-range planning or a Transportation

disadvantages of each procedure. Two procedures are examined for illustration.

c.1.Direct Estimation of Traffic Volume by Trend Analysis

historical trend can be identified and extrapolated to estimate future volumes.

c.2. Stepwise/Sequential Procedure

Trip generation is the first step of the four-step

Trip distribution uses characteristics of

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