Travel Demand Forecasting
Travel Demand Forecasting
Travel Demand Forecasting
FORECASTING
FOR
URBAN TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING
What is the need of travel demand
forecasting in urban transportation
planning?
Travel Demand Forecasting is the process used to
predict travel behavior and resulting demand for a
specific future time frame, based on assumptions
dealing with landuse, the number and character of
tripmakers, and the nature of the transportation
system
1.The Need for Determining Travel Demand
a. functional classification
b. system extent
c. system usage
d. system performance/capacity
e. system condition
3. UNITS FOR MEASURING TRAVEL DEMAND
• Since travel demand varies during a given year according to the season (or month of
year) and day of week, a decision must be made carefully to select a specific time frame
develop travel demand information for an average weekday in the ‘fall’ season.
However, the time can be different based on the nature of the problem to be analyzed.
b. Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys
• The classification of trips into the three classes of internal, external-internal (and
vice-versa), and through trips is useful for ‘meso’ scale and metropolitan level as
well as small area studies. This classification scheme is useful for developing
travel because strategies for each of these classes of travel would be different.
The origins and destinations of trips along with some other
characteristics such as trip purpose and mode of travel can be
determined in different ways:
To determine the use of various roadway facilities and assessing their level of service,
vehicle counts are taken at selected locations along roadways. Short-count techniques
are useful provided appropriate expansion factors are developed based on previous or
traffic volume data on an annual basis. These vehicle counts usually are taken with
machines.
For urban transportation studies ‘screen lines’ and ‘cut-lines’ are established in the study
area to select traffic count locations and take counts in an organized manner so that the
major travel movements can be measured and analyzed. These counts are also used for
Similarly traffic counts are taken at special traffic generators such as an airport and a large
The need for travel demand forecasts arises in various contexts of planning --
and difficult tasks of transportation planning. There are different types of travel
their likes and dislikes for various service characteristics. These surveys are used for
determining how to improve an existing service and/or designing a new service, and
also for forecasting ridership on a new service. These attitudinal and ‘stated preference’
surveys need sound statistical design for selecting the sample and analyzing the results.
c. Forecasting Future Travel on Road Segments
and/or Transit Lines
A variety of forecasting procedures are available ranging from the extrapolation of past trends to complex
mathematical models involving several steps. A transportation planner must recognize the advantages and
If traffic volume data are available for a road segment or a transit line of interest for several years in the past, the
a. trip generation
b. trip distribution
c. modal split
d. travel assignments
A. TRIP GENERATION